Highlights

i3gambler

Author: i3gambler   |   Latest post: Sun, 1 May 2022, 12:01 PM

 

Valuation of Plantation Companies.

Author: i3gambler   |  Publish date: Sun, 1 May 2022, 12:01 PM


1) FCPO JUL 2022 was/is/will be the most active traded FCPO from 16th April to 15th May 2022. Then FCPO AUG 2022 will take over as the most active traded FCPO from 16th May to 15th June. This has been correct for many past years and don't ask me why, because I also don't know why.

2) The Red Dot pointed by the Red arrow, is the average of FCPO JUL since 16th April.

3) The Green Dots to the Left of the Red Dot are all the previous most active traded FCPO.

4) The 6 Green Dots pointed by the 2 Green Arrow are the current market price for FCPO AUG/SEP/OCT/NOV/DEC/JAN.

5) The thin blue line is the 120 months average, currently the average is 2761.

6) The Green Dot pointed by the blue Arrow and beyond are my estimation. I apply a formula so that the FCPO will converge to the 120 months average, i.e 2761.

7) With the FCPO future price profile, I can estimate the next 20 quarterly EPS.

 


The fair share price of a plantation company is the sum of the followings:

a) Present value of all the 20 future EPS.

b) Present value of the furthest EPS multiply with a fair PE ratio.

 


Important Notes:

1) Do your own calculation and invest at your own risk.

 

 

 

 

 

  Be the first to like this.
 
i3gambler The discount rate that I use for Present Value is 8%. I think it is already very conservative.
01/05/2022 12:05 PM
i3gambler The fair PE ratio I apply:
1) 20 for KLK, big and very well managed company.
2) 15 for BKAWAN, a better choice than KLK, can keep until we die, but funds don't like small trading volume.
3) 25 for SIMEPLT, big freehold land in Peninsula, owned by ASB.
4) 15 for SWKPLNT, well managed and good dividend, improvement still ongoing since 2018.
5) 15 for TAANN, well managed and good dividend.
01/05/2022 12:32 PM
stockraider Rubbish loh....!
If u want to analyse & invest long term, U invest based on sustainable CPO prices of around Rm 4200 based on Pe 11x....irregardless the Plantation big or small loh!

If Co....pay good dividend yield say above 3.5% pa.....then increase its value rating to Pe 13.5x loh!

This way u ensure do not overpay & do not simply chase base on not sustainable earnings bcos of CPO price run up sky high mah!
01/05/2022 12:50 PM
i3gambler Aiya, you don't read properly or you don't understand?
I said fair PE at the furthest month which is 5 years later, when the FCPO is almost at the 10 years average=2761.

I ask you,
a) 15 PE when FCPO at 2761, or
b) 11 PE when FCPO at 4200.
Which one will give lower/safer valuation for BKAWAN.

Seriously, I don't think FCPO will stay long at 4200.
01/05/2022 1:31 PM
stockraider Look here loh!

Everything is up bcos of inflation mah!

Min salary 10 yrs ago Rm 700.....Today already Rm 1500 mah!

Thus CPO Rm 2760 as norm....no longer the same song mah!
Now CPO Rm 4000 will be the sustainable norm mah!

Lu tau boh !
01/05/2022 2:01 PM
i3gambler We can't predict inflation.
In my estimation, the cost remain the same for the next 5 years.
In another word, the 2761 is net of inflation.
Meaning if 5 years later the cost is 500 higher than today's cost, then the FCPO will be 2761+500=3261.
01/05/2022 2:13 PM
stockraider Common sense mah!

10 yrs ago min pay Rm 700....now min pay Rm 1500 mah!

10 years ago chicken rice Rm 5.00....now Rm 7.50 loh!

Surely inflation mah!

Thus palmoil above Rm 4000, very reasonable mah!

Common sense mah!

Lu tau boh ?

01/05/2022 2:20 PM
i3gambler Aiya, in estimation, we should assume no inflation.
What if 5 years later the MYR/USD=4.3*2=4.6, then your 4200 become too low liao, maybe BKAWAN also no profit liao.
But in my calculation, the price 2761*2=5522, still have profit lor.
01/05/2022 2:29 PM
stockraider Pakai common sense otak lah!

5 yrs time u think min salary will drop from Rm 1500 to Rm 700 meh ?

Cjicken rice will drop from rm 7.50 to Rm 5.00 meh ??

Unlikely mah!

The chances it will also up higher mah!

Thus Palmoil is likely to sustained above Rm 4000 loh!

Common sense mah!

Plantation can or good hedge agst inflation loh!

Lu tau boh ?
01/05/2022 2:35 PM
i3gambler Still don't understand meh?
Assume cost remain the same, that is why I use 10 years average which is net of inflation.

If I were to consider inflation of x% per year, then the 2761 need to multiply with (1+x%) ^5.
Then how lei, use what x%?
You and I both also don't know how much is x%.

If you don't know how much x%, how do you know 4200 is sustainable or not?

01/05/2022 3:02 PM
stockraider No understand....boloh loh!


Basic maths mah!

U see Cpo Rm 2761.....as fair target next 5 years loh!
And min pay Rm 1500 inflation which up 100% over 10 years !
Chicken rice up 50% over 10 years mah!

Surely price of chicken rice & min pay inflation which up 50% to 100% will give the foundation to future fair cpo price support mah!

If u take target cpo price of Rm 2761 & the current CPO price now of rm 7400.....it is up 168% mah!

Certainly CPO price should be able to sustain above Rm 4000 easily considering current price of Rm 7400 loh!

If u considered the inflation rate of chicken rice of 50% and min pay rate of 100%, CPO should easily sustained between Rm 4142 to Rm 5522 over next 5 yrs loh!

This is the new order and new norm for CPO price considering inflation mah!
Palmoil is a good hedge against inflation loh!

Lu tau boh ?
01/05/2022 4:53 PM
i3gambler Aiyo, you look at my chart,
Early 2008, the FCPO was 4000, one year later it drop to 1500,
Then Early 2011, went up to almost 4000,
Then 2015 and 2019, went down to 2000,
So, anything can happen lor.

I repeat again and again,
My calculation is with assumption that the cost remain the same for the next 5 years, and the 2761 is also net of inflation. It make calculation easier.

If I were to consider inflation, then both the cost and the 10 years average 2761 also need to adjust.
01/05/2022 5:31 PM
stockraider Memang benar 2008....Fcpo drop from Rm 4000 to Rm 1500 a drop of 62.5% loh!
That time min gaji in 2008 is only Rm 500 mah!
Now gaji Rm 1500 mah! To drop back by 62.5% gaji will need to drop back to Rm 563 mah!

Impossible loh...gaji will never drop back even to Rm 1200 loh!

Now coming back palmoil....if gaji cannot even drop back even to Rm 1200 in the next 5 yrs do u think palm oil can drop from Rm 7,400 to Rm 2761 meh ??

Impossible mah....even it drop back to Rm 4,000 it is quite difficult loh!

Thus must have logic by taking inflation into account mah!

Your father time 5 sen....can buy chicken rice....today u need rm 7.50....can chicken rice drop back to 5 sen per plate leh ?? Impossible mah!
02/05/2022 12:18 AM
supermaxdarren Maybe in term of supply n demand…it’s impossible for the demand to drop overnight but the fcpo price can…it’s a bit impossible for the demand to drop so dramatically in short time as it need times to grow and harvest…and as a food manufacturer I don’t think they gonna risk themselves again to blindly follow esg and shift immediately even soy oil supply back to normal
02/05/2022 9:09 AM

Right Time to Buy ICAP ???

Author: i3gambler   |  Publish date: Sun, 13 Feb 2022, 12:21 PM


In May 2020, I bought some ICAP hoping for liquidation in August 2020.

However, I did not realize that an amendment had been made in year 2016, passed with 98.71% rate, the tabling of liquidation would happen only in August 2025.

I therefore sold all and wasted brokerage.

 


21 months later, now make a revisit to ICAP again.

The Equity Level has increased from then 35% to 60% (Latest Q Report 30.11.2021).

 


Now let see what happen to "Price to NAV" ratio.

The Price to NAV ratio dropped further from then 72% to the latest 59% (09.02.2022) .

Meaning now we can pay a price of RM0.59 and get a value of RM1.00, so Good mah?

Last time, many said the fund mananger keep too much Cash, i.e. Equity Level too Low,

Now the Equity Level has increased to 60%, the investors should be happy, isn't it?

But why now trade at such a very very Low "Price to NAV" ratio?

 


Is it problem with the portfolio?

Let see the latest portfolio at 30.11.2021.

May be investors:

1) Do not like AIRASIA, as it is a company making hugh Losses and now in PN17?

2) Do not like the portfolio balancing? the top 4  heavyweights add-up already 41.97%?

3) Do not like SAM to be remain there as it has already gone up 200% to a very high price, very high PE ratio? But isn't it we should thank the fund manager for being able to buy SAM at below RM8.00 and it is now RM23.50? I believe the fund manager knows what to do and may be has already taken some profit since 30.11.2021.

 


Take Note:

1) Very important, must say 3 times, Invest at your own risk, your own risk and your own risk.

2) I already bought some ICAP.

 

Labels: ICAP
  Be the first to like this.
 
TheContrarian Be patient and wait 3 years.
14/02/2022 10:08 AM
CharlesT TTB can patiently put yr money into FD for another 10 to 20 years waiting for KLCI to drop to 800 or 500....as long as he is still alive
14/02/2022 10:13 AM
i3gambler CharlesT,

The Equity Level chart that shown in this post was from Aug 2010 and onward.
Because the Q.Results before that showed the Book Value in the Balance Sheet.
That make a bit more work to compute the Equity Level.
However, last night I spent some times to complete it.

I found that the overall average Equity Level from Nov 2005 to Nov 2021 is 53.7%.
With the 20 sen special Dividend, the Equity Level will be around 65% by Feb 2022.
Unless ICAP sell more than buy during current Quarter.

I also do not want to keep ICAP for Long.
Just bought it because the Price / NAV ratio is very Low.
14/02/2022 11:40 AM
Trader2 Ridiculous current inflated price when its NTA is in the - negative zone & classified PN17.
15/02/2022 2:53 PM
ahbah Right Time to Buy ICAP ???

Answer : near maturity August 2025
15/02/2022 5:39 PM

TOPGLOV-C2C

Author: i3gambler   |  Publish date: Sun, 26 Dec 2021, 5:49 PM


1) Expiry:

The expiry is actually on 29th July 2022.

However, I prefer to input 26th July 2022, the 3rd day of the 5 settlement days as the effective Expiry.

 


2) Dividend Yield:

The latest dividend payout 1.20 sen was ex-dated on 24th Dec 2021, I expect the same 1.20 sen dividend in March and June 2022.

 


3) Interest Rate:

2.00%

 


4) Volatility:

The latest 10 / 30 / 60 / 90 days Historical Volatility are 59% / 89% / 65% / 62%.

I do not want to input any of the above, I have a new idea.

From now to Expiry, there will be around 142 trading days,

The average Historical Volatility for the past 142 trading days was 51.4%.

Assume there will be a mirror image, I prefer to input 51.4%.

 


5) Fair Value Calculation:

As the exercise ratio is 3.00, The Fair Value of TOPGLOV-C2C is RM0.0808.

 


6) What if:

a) Volatility = 20%, Fair Value = RM0.0157

b) Volatility = 30%, Fair Value = RM0.0351

c) Volatility = 40%, Fair Value = RM0.0562
 
d) Volatility = 60%, Fair Value = RM0.0999
 
e) Volatility = 70%, Fair Value = RM0.1219
 
f) Volatility = 80%, Fair Value = RM0.1436
 
You see, Volatility is very Critical in Fair Value calculation.
 
 

7) Warning:

Please take note that the mother share price is RM2.19, still RM0.26 below the exercise price of RM2.45. Therefore, it is very likely TOPGLOV-C2C will end-up a TOTAL LOSS.

This article is for educational purpose, no recommendation for BUY or SELL, consult your dealer / broker before trading.

Last one, very important, must say it 3 times,

Trade at your own risk.

Trade at your own risk.

Trade at your own risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Be the first to like this.
 
i3gambler Sold all at RM0.09,
Aiya, sold too early.
27/12/2021 1:24 PM
ahbah " Therefore, it is very likely TOPGLOV-C2C will end-up a TOTAL LOSS. "
27/12/2021 3:24 PM
i3gambler True, it is very likely to end-up TOTAL LOSS,
However, there is "Not So Likely" we will make more than 100% Profit.
Average out, the fair Value was RM0.08 yesterday.

Of course, right now the Fair Value is RM0.1166 when mother share is RM2.40.
27/12/2021 4:19 PM
i3gambler Valid for 28/12/2021 only, Fair Value of C2C:

1) TOPGLOV=2.30, C2C=0.100
2) TOPGLOV=2.32, C2C=0.104
3) TOPGLOV=2.34, C2C=0.107
4) TOPGLOV=2.36, C2C=0.111
5) TOPGLOV=2.38, C2C=0.115
6) TOPGLOV=2.40, C2C=0.118
28/12/2021 9:19 AM
i3gambler 140+/- trading days before effective Expiry,
Volatility for the past 140 trading days = 52.5%, input this to Calculator.

Valid for 29/12/2021 only, Fair Value of C2C:

1) TOPGLOV=2.30, C2C=0.100
2) TOPGLOV=2.32, C2C=0.104
3) TOPGLOV=2.34, C2C=0.107
4) TOPGLOV=2.36, C2C=0.111
5) TOPGLOV=2.38, C2C=0.115
6) TOPGLOV=2.40, C2C=0.119
7) TOPGLOV=2.42, C2C=0.122
8) TOPGLOV=2.44, C2C=0.126
9) TOPGLOV=2.46, C2C=0.130
10) TOPGLOV=2.48, C2C=0.134
11) TOPGLOV=2.50, C2C=0.138
29/12/2021 8:09 AM

TOPGLOV, Time to Look at its Structured Warrants.

Author: i3gambler   |  Publish date: Fri, 10 Dec 2021, 9:20 AM


 

TOPGLOV will announce its 1st Q result today, probably at noon time.

The 4th Q profit was 608m. However, most guru said this 1st Q profit should be around 250m to 400m only due to lower ASP.

The above screen show TOPGLV Historical Volatility, we can see the Volatility is picking up.


Therefore it is good time now to look at its structured warrants, both call warrants and put warrants.

We better calculate the fair value before we trade any structured warrants.

One of the very important input to calculation is the Volatility, we can not know the Volatility between now and the expiry of the structured warrant, so we can only look at the Historical Volatility for reference and from there predict.

See how I calculate the Volatility, using Crude Method.

1) Column C is the daily price change, the formula for Cell C2 is =ABS(LN(B2/B3))

2) Column D is the 10 Days average annualised Volatility, the formula for Cell D2 is =(245*PI()/2)^0.5*AVERAGE($C2:$C11)

3) Column E is the 30 Days average annualised Volatility, the formula for Cell E2 is =(245*PI()/2)^0.5*AVERAGE($C2:$C31)

4) Column F is the 60 Days average annualised Volatility, the formula for Cell F2 is =(245*PI()/2)^0.5*AVERAGE($C2:$C61)

5) Column G is the 90 Days average annualised Volatility, the formula for Cell G2 is =(245*PI()/2)^0.5*AVERAGE($C2:$C91)

Then copy and paste (Formula) downward.

Note:

The 245 is actually, assuming there are 245 trading days in a year.


So, what Volatility to be input into the calculation?

You look at the screen and decide lor.


Last one, very important, must say it loud for three times:

I am not Investment Advisor, Trade at your own risk after checking with your dealer / advisors.

I am not Investment Advisor, Trade at your own risk after checking with your dealer / advisors.

I am not Investment Advisor, Trade at your own risk after checking with your dealer / advisors.

Labels: TOPGLOV
  2 people like this.
 
Kukubai Talk lj
10/12/2021 5:50 PM
Kukubai In the stock market, all the guru are guru lj, all the sifu are sifu cb
10/12/2021 5:52 PM

SIMEPLT - Valuation of its Plantation Estate

Author: i3gambler   |  Publish date: Sun, 5 Dec 2021, 10:46 AM


 

Reference and Assumption:

1) Harn Len sold 2124 ha Leasehold (Pahang) at 86,000 / ha. Assume Freehold in Pahang and Kedah also equal to this.

2) Pinehill sold 3642 ha Leasehold (Perak) at 110,000 / ha. Assume Freehold in Perak and Johor also equal to this.

3) United Malacca sold 1021 ha Freehold (Melaka / N.Sembilan) at 171,000 / ha. Assume Freehold in Melaka, N.Sembilan and Selangor also equal to this.


Market Value greater than Book Value by 27606m, or RM3.99 per share.

The NTA per share of SIMEPLT is RM2.10.

Therefore, the true value of SIMEPLT should be 2.10+3.99 = RM6.09, which is very much higher than the share price of RM3.79.


For 2021, SIMEPLT's EPS should be around RM0.38, the PE is around 3.79/0.38 = 10 times.

However, the CPO will eventually come down to, say CPO is selling at 10 years average of RM2650.

My estimation show that the EPS of SIMEPLT will be then around RM0.14, or PE = 3.79/0.14 = 27 times.

PE=27 times looks like is expensive, but actually it is not.


Let me show you.

The market value of its plantation estate in Malaysia, my estimation is 36042m.

I believe this value will go up at least 3% per year, you can say it is due to inflation or RM depreciation or both.

36042m*3%=1081m or 1081m/6916m = RM0.155

This RM0.155 is never captured in the EPS calculation.

So the true PE for SIMEPLT = 3.79 / (0.14+0.155) = 12.8 times.

I think it is cheap.


Last one, very important, must say it loud for 3 times.

1) I am not investment adviser, please consult your own investment advisers before trading.

2) I am not investment adviser, please consult your own investment advisers before trading.

3) I am not investment adviser, please consult your own investment advisers before trading.

 

Labels: SIMEPLT
  Be the first to like this.
 
stockraider Yes ALOT OF VALUE IN PLANTATION MAH!
05/12/2021 12:40 PM
Johnzhang Likewise, most plantation companies listed in Bursa are seriously undervalued by their mark-to-market asset values, earning prospect and dividend yields.

Without real understanding of the supply/demand dynamics for the oil and fats market, many critics argued that current palm oil price (RM5,000+) is unsustainable. The same critics voiced same argument when CPO price was at RM3,000+ more than a year ago . So what is new?

Down to earth investors shall expect CPO price uncertainty in the next 1-2 years which largely hinge on demand growth vs supply growth. Nobody can possibly pinpoint the numbers into the future, just like how miserably wrong the critics/analysts were in the past one year.

Why should critics be alarmingly negative EVEN IF CPO price correct down to $4,000 (ie 20+ % from today's level}? I am not concern at all. The average realized CPO price for Q1 to Q3 2021 for Bplant was $4,072, THplant $3,478, SOP $4,263, MHC $4,167, Cepat $4,149. At these avg realized prices, these companies already making record earnings.

I am bullish that average CPO price for 2022 will stay above $4,000/-

On supply side :
(1) There will be minimum production growth from Malaysia and Indonesia in 2022 due to continuing labor constraint (Malaysia), lower fertilizer application in 2018/19 when CPO price was low, lower fertilizer application in 2020/21 due to supply/application constraint caused by lockdowns and acute labour shortage, poor upkeep of fields, minimum new planting and replanting in past 3-4 years etc.

(2). Relentless attack from NGOs, ESG pressure, 3 years new planting moratorium (Sept 2018 to sept 2021) in Indonesia, zero expansion in Malaysia since 2017 , delayed replanting activities etc, not to mention climate havoc, are going to seriously limit production growth for the next few years.

On the demand side,
(1). Strong demand recovery expected in 2022 due to minimum lockdowns, low inventory level in importing countries, demand for biofuels (especially Indonesia B30 mandate) , increasing usage of oleochemicals etc.

(2). Global palm oil consumption growth from 2011 to 2020 is averaging 5% annually. I think consumption growth rate shall resume from 2022 onwards with covid's impact subsiding

Where are we going to get 5% production growth (ie 3.7 to 4.0 mil MT of increase per year ) to match the demand growth in the next few years? Will there be significantly higher production of other edible oils (soya, reepseed, sunflower, canola etc) to replace palm oil ?

It's a million dollar question. I think there is reason why CPO price shot up significantly above the previous high.

Just sharing my thought.
05/12/2021 4:47 PM
Fabien _the efficient capital allocator The market is not fair. That's pretty obvious.

For oil palm estates that are RSPO-compliance, no premium was accorded while ESG risks were heavily punished. I believe SimePLT valuation was heavily discounted due to the ban by the US CBP.

Two companies with low EV/ha are SimePLT and GenP.
05/12/2021 8:03 PM
deMusangking aiyah! where got fairness anywhere?
05/12/2021 8:11 PM
Asia88 After i read your article, my comment "so"?
06/12/2021 5:29 PM

TENAGA and TENAGA-C85

Author: i3gambler   |  Publish date: Sat, 19 Jun 2021, 6:20 PM


See the above screen shot on TENAGA.

What happen to TENAGA?

The price shot up 40 cent with huge volume (>6.2 million shares) during the last 10 minutes trading on Friday.

Meaning paying extra = 40 cent * 6.2 million = RM2.48m.

Who were they buying at a big jump?

What for?

 

 

Now look at the screen shot below on TENAGA-C85.

What happen to the last  2 trades?

Knowing the mother share already shot up to 10.44 at 16.50pm.

Still wanted to sell at 0.05?

 

 

 


Calculation for TENAGA-C85:

Expiry: 30.06.2021

Strike: 9.6337

Ratio: 6.7436

As it is about to expire, the time value is negligible.

Therefore, the fair value is equal to intrinsic value.

Then, if TENAGA was at:

1) RM10.04 before 16.45 pm, TENAGA-C85 value = (10.04 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = RM0.060

2) RM10.44 after 16.50 pm, TENAGA-C85 value = (10.44 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = RM0.120

The value of TENAGA jump up 100%, and yet someone still wanted to sell TENAGA-C85 at RM0.05?

Trade call warrant without looking at the mother share?

Can not do like that lah.

 

 


Last one, very important, must say three times.

My writing is for educational purpose, trade at your own risk.

My writing is for educational purpose, trade at your own risk.

My writing is for educational purpose, trade at your own risk.

 

 

  Be the first to like this.
 
i3gambler Correction ==>> *The value of TENAGA-C85 jump up 100%*
19/06/2021 6:27 PM
birkincollector ur surely a gambler.....tenaga c85 expiring in few days.....if ur confident lets the bank buy from u ...lets not duping people to buy ur sell queue
20/06/2021 10:45 AM
ahbah Tenaga c85 now is a gold mine or a death trap for us ?
20/06/2021 12:17 PM
Lukey_Greek It’s our national team doing window dressing for KLCI using heavyweight blue chip like Tenaga. 1st day playing shares?
20/06/2021 12:22 PM
ahbah Could dressing up KLCI into a beautiful princess also dresses us up into handsome princes ?
20/06/2021 12:30 PM
i3gambler birkincollector

When I find that C85 is relatively very cheap compare with the mother share, I bought it and write / highlight / teach people how to do the calculation.

I must say that I do not how to predict the direction of TENAGA, whether it will go North of South in short / long term.

Of course I hope people after reading it, will do their calculation and if they think worth to take the risk, then buy C85 and help to bring C85 price closer to its intrinsic value.

I will sell when C85 at the right price.

I am not Santa Claus.

If this is not allowable, same logic, what about those people who say good or bad thing about any company, be it blue chip or junk companies?
20/06/2021 1:18 PM
RJ87 Tenaga gap up and gap down is just a blink of an eye…

Exercise price depends on 5 days VWAP…For RM10 counter to gap down 50sen is very easy if compared to RM1 counter.
20/06/2021 1:58 PM
SpeedNpower Ppl cut loss duh. That's why sell.
20/06/2021 5:48 PM
i3gambler RJ87,

The more it can gap up/down, the higher the value of C85.

Say now TENAGA is only 9.96,
Intrinsic value of C85 is = (9.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.048,

If it is highly volatile that:

1) 50% chance go up 1.00 and 50% chance go down 1.00
Then the value of C85 = 50%*(10.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.098

2) 50% chance go up 2.00 and 50% chance go down 2.00
Then the value of C85 = 50%*(11.96 - 9.6337) / 6.7436 = 0.172
20/06/2021 6:42 PM
Lukey_Greek Last Friday is quadruple witching day. Pls google if wanna find out more.
20/06/2021 9:21 PM
RJ87 So, u expect it to immediately go up or down is it? One moment +100%, the other moment -50% is it?

it’s more like betting upon expiry that price won’t hold. If he is sure that last week of june is gonna drop below 9.5. 5sen will be very much better than 0.

if u so confident that price will hold. Sailang everything la…got 300% upside for u…
21/06/2021 1:18 AM
i3gambler RJ87

Read again what I wrote in this post, I mentioned that the time value is negligible as C85 is about to expire.

Therefore I calculate its intrinsic value, intrinsic value is actually the lowest fair value when we assume both volatility and interest rate are zero.

Any volatility and interest rate will create added value to the call warrants.

Call warrants are for those people who believe that there are equal chance for the mother share to go North and South.

If you believe TENAGA will certainly go South, then do not buy mother share or its call warrants.

If you believe TENAGA will certainly go North, also do not buy its call warrants, it is better to borrow money (margin account etc) and all in.

Do not have a mindset to sailang for any single stock or its call warrants.

Many years ago, before I could first trade call warrant, I need to sign a form to disclose my years of experience in stock trading, I believe the rule is still there.
21/06/2021 8:09 AM
RJ87 I dont know what u talking about anymore.

U were asking a question why anyone selling C85 at 5sen where the intrinsic value is higher, right?
My best answer is if Tenaga trade below 9.6 for last week of june, its gonna be 0. 5sen now is better than zero later.

If u cant say YES. I think its wise to not waste my time talking to a clown.
21/06/2021 9:29 AM
i3gambler TENAGA at 10.10, C85 intrinsic value = 0.069

Sold 200K units at 0.06 for profit taking.

And the sell Q 100K now at 0.065 is mine.
21/06/2021 9:34 AM
i3gambler RJ87,

If that is what you think,
I can only say you better don't trade call warrant.
21/06/2021 10:08 AM
i3gambler I revised the sell Q and sold 100K at 0.06.
No more holding.
21/06/2021 10:38 AM
RJ87 Let me make this easier for u...

If VWAP of Tenaga between 24-30 June is 9.6. What is "intrinsic" value of C85?
If u refuse understand/answer simple question like this, what's there to discuss?

I better don't trade warrant? Then why the hell are you selling? I hv a point and you know it. 6sen is better than nothing is getting into ur head huh?

If C85 still got 6 months, I sailang together with you. It's only left 1 week. You are running out of time and hence hope.
21/06/2021 11:54 AM
RJ87 10.440 drop back to 10.04 is just a blink of an eye as I said yesterday.

So it makes no sense for anyone to buy at 9sen yesterday as u think it should just to sell 5-6sen today. And becomes 0sen if it drop another 40sen. It happened today and it can happen again tmr. And it can stay there another week.

Thank god u r not completely stubborn or dumb. 6 sen looks #hell lot better than 0 sen. Don't tell me what to do. You becareful with call warrant yourself. Take care.

Let's revisit this topic on 30 June shall we?
21/06/2021 12:16 PM
i3gambler As I said, call warrants are for those people who believe that the mother share could go up and down both directions, with equal chance.

Last Friday, when it was around 10.02, I bought C85 with about 10% discount from intrinsic value.

After that, when came to end of Friday trading hours, it shot up to 10.44, of course I was very happy. I show the calculation, for that price of mother share, the intrinsic value of C85 is 0.12, and then question why the last 2 trades of C85 were still at 0.05.

From Friday's 10.44, from there I believe again the mother share could go both direction, further up or reverse down.

Unfortunately, today it reverse direction and go down.

When it came down to around 10.08, the discount is around 10% if I sell at 0.06, I decided to take profit.

Bought at 10% discount and sold at 10% discount with 20% profit, isn't very good?

Now it is at 10.04/10.06, I Q to buy again at 0.05.
If mother share go further down, then I will revise down my Q.

If I did not sell it at 0.06 this morning, I would feel reluctant Q to buy 0.05 now, because my exposure / risk is much higher holding 500K or 600K units.

What is the point to bet at what price TENAGA will end up end of June?
I told you I do not know, I can only say I believe it has equal chance to go both directions.
21/06/2021 1:13 PM
i3gambler https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzMQ3hZqtp0&t=1025s

Understand how to evaluate / calculate the fair value of call warrants.

I said equal chance for the mother share to go both direction,
However, to be exact, for most cases, it is a bit more to upside, depending on interest rate and dividend yield.
21/06/2021 2:34 PM
RJ87 Simple questions expecting simple answers...

What is the settlement value? And if selling 6sen is a good call?
Expecting simple answer, no beating around the bush if you capable of any decent discussion.

Now, u know what I'm talking about and why the fella sold 5sen.
If u insist on upside is better why didn't you hold until expiry?

You ARE betting what price TENAGA will end up in June. Else, u really don't what you are doing here. "I said equal chance for the mother share to go both direction"...Hahahahahha, this is not betting. Then, do enlighten what is this? Joker betul.
01/07/2021 10:35 AM
i3gambler 1) That guy should have waited until the next day to sell at 6 sen instead of 5 sen. He sold to me at 5 sen and I sold it the next day at 6 sen, making 20% gross profit, wasn't it bad for him and good for me?

2) How many times do I need to tell you that "equal chance for the mother share to go both direction"? Go and click the above youtube link and watch. To be exact, we assume the mother share price will in average grow at a rate of equal to interest rate minus dividend yield, then assume it will spread like normal distribution.

3) After making 20% gross profit in the first round, I bought again until the last trading day on 29th June but at smaller quantity, My average purchase price for the second round was at 3.6 sen, and the settlement value is 3.76 sen.
01/07/2021 5:59 PM
i3gambler *last trading day on 28th June
02/07/2021 8:41 AM
RJ87 If today price happens on last week of June. Let me see what do u get at the end?

Errrr, 0.005sen or 1sen. It PROVED my point exiting 5sen is great. U were lucky there was a bounce. You heeded my advice and exited at 6sen(I assume u did la ya). So, lucky u, pity whoever that picked up from you.

I don't bother exposing ur lies. The volume don't check out. U say u entered 3.6sen average. Simply pick a day low and claim entry to make urself "feel" better won't bring u very far.

Else....here a neat trick... screenshot and upload how u get ur 3.6sen position here... use this (https://imgur.com/) can share screenshot and paste the link.

Else, it's pointless to have further discussion and hence I rest my case. Errr, You're welcome. No worries, u don't owe me anything.

P.S. The way u claim entering day low give me a hunch that u lost money.
09/07/2021 12:36 PM
i3gambler What? I listen to your advice? Who do you think you are?

Or may be you were the one who sold C85 to me at 5 sen?

I wrote that I bought for second round but at smaller quantity, so there was no question of "The volume don't check out".

It is quite safe to buy during the settlement days.
The chance of losing money is small.

When I bought on the 3rd settlement day, I already knew the VWAP for the 1st and 2nd Day. And when I bought again on the 4th settlement day, I already knew the VWAP for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd day.
15/07/2021 6:53 PM


TOP ARTICLES

1. Plantation Companies will have better profit growth - Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog
2. ASIAN COMPANIES to ramp up petrol exports to US as sky-high prices beckon - HENGYUAN News1
3. TSH RESOURCES (9059) A PALM OIL STOCK WITH GOOD CLARITY, PROSPECTS & INSIDERS' BUYING SUPPORT, Calvin Tan THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
4. BPLANT VERSUS THPLANT VERSUS JAYA TIASA (MID CAP VALUE SELLLING AT PENNY STOCK BARGAIN PRICES) Calvin Tan THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
5. Could Sarawak connection be Serba’s lucky charm in its stock price revival? save malaysia!
6. Palm oil’s slump set to deepen after Indonesia lifts export ban Good Articles to Share
7. Amid probe, Kit Siang says expected desperadoes and cybertroopers to twist Sri Lanka remark but not ex-PM Najib save malaysia!
8. US fears China may have ten exascale systems by 2025 Future Tech
APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
View candlestick stock charts with Technical indicators
MQ Affiliate
Be rewarded by being an MQ Affiliate
 
 

516  269  543  950 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 SERBADK 0.135-0.01 
 KNM 0.20+0.025 
 TECHNAX 0.0550.00 
 SAPNRG 0.07+0.005 
 HSI-HA7 0.265-0.11 
 MNC 0.02-0.005 
 HSI-CQW 0.26+0.08 
 DNEX 1.04+0.02 
 HSI-CJB 0.54+0.095 
 WIDAD 0.360.00 
PARTNERS & BROKERS