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James的股票投资James Share Investing

Author: James Ng   |   Latest post: Tue, 21 Jan 2020, 9:48 AM

 

[转贴] [MEGA FIRST CORP BHD:Électricité du Laos(“ EDL”)通往老挝/柬埔寨边界的500KV旁路传输线以及Electricite Du Cambodge(“ EDC”)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing

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[MEGA FIRST CORP BHD:Électricité du Laos(“ EDL”)通往老挝/柬埔寨边界的500KV旁路传输线以及Electricite Du Cambodge(“ EDC”)从老挝/柬埔寨边界至柬埔寨Stung Treng的500KV连接传输线的建设,计划在年底之前完成]

3Q19 vs 3Q18:
美佳第一录得来自持续经营的收入为1.255亿令吉,比一年前的2.191亿令吉降低42.7%,主要是由于建筑收入的确认减少了62.8%。本季度的集团税前利润同比下降63.3%至1890万令吉,而去年同期为5160万令吉,主要是由于建筑利润下降了62.5%至1640万令吉。由于缺乏投资物业的公允价值收益640万令吉和Don Sahong的商业前运营费用,本季度的PBT也受到影响。

电力部(Don Sahong项目):
由于该项目接近完工,本季度实际完工率降低至2.9%(2019年第三季度:8.0%)。因此,建筑收入减少了1.03亿令吉,至6100万令吉,而建筑利润减少了2730万令吉,至1640万令吉。

资源部:
尽管由于工业产出下降,国内和出口市场上现有客户的需求放缓,但由于出口和国内现货/临时需求的增加,本季度石灰产品的销量year-on-year增长了8.3%市场。由于销量增加和工厂利用率提高,税前利润从一年前的460万令吉提高了19.2%,至550万令吉,但由于没有出售工厂和设备的50万令吉收益而被部分抵消。

物业部:
税前利润下降74.7%至210万令吉(2018年第三季度:820万令吉),原因是没有像2018年第三季度录得640万令吉的投资物业公允价值收益,部分被本季度出售2个房地产单元产生的税前发展利润60万令吉所抵消。

YTD19 vs YTD18:
撇除已终止的业务,集团的总收入为5.064亿令吉,减少22.5%,低于去年的6.532亿令吉。减少的主要原因是Don Sahong项目的建筑收入贡献减少了32.3%。

截至2019年9月30日的9个月,集团来自持续经营业务的税前利润从1.466亿令吉收缩35.9%至9390万令吉,这主要是由于建筑利润下降(下降31.8%或4150万令吉),缺乏2018年同期录得的投资物业公允价值收益640万令吉,资源部的PBT下降18.6%或300万令吉至1,330万令吉,以及Don Sahong的商业前营运开支。

电力部(Don Sahong项目):
Don Sahong项目在截至2019年9月30日的9个月中确认了16.0%的实际完工量,因为Don Sahong项目进入建设的最后一年,低于去年同期的24.5%。因此,建筑收入减少了1.58亿令吉,至3.311亿令吉,而建筑税前利润则从1.304亿令吉减少至8890万令吉。

资源部:
石灰产品的销售额下跌1.0%,至1亿60万令吉。由于该地区工业产出放缓,石灰产品的销量year-on-year下降了3.0%,导致现有国内外客户的需求放缓。资源部门的税前盈利下跌18.6%至1,330万令吉(YTD30.9.2018:1,630万令吉),原因是单位生产成本上升(由于工厂利用率降低),石灰产品的销量减少,融资成本增加,更高的库存冲销和更低的卖掉厂房和设备的收益。

物业部:
税前盈利下降59.5%至450万令吉(YTD30.9.2018:1,100万令吉),因为没有去年同期确认的投资性房地产650万令吉的公允价值收益。

截至2019年9月30日,总借贷(不包括租购)为7.717亿令吉(2018年12月31日:5.987亿令吉)。自2018年12月31日以来总借贷增加,主要是由于提取了1.688亿令吉贷款以部分资助Don Sahong项目的建设。

3Q19 vs 2Q19:
撇除已终止经营的业务,集团营业额quarter-on-quarter下跌21.1%,从1.591亿令吉减至1.255亿令吉。下降的主要原因是建筑收入减少了39.1%,部分被资源(增长5.1%)和房地产(增长82.7%)部门的收入贡献所抵消。集团的PBT quarter-on-quarter减少37.0%或1,110万令吉,至1,890万令吉(2019年第二季度:3000万令吉),这主要是由于Don Sahong的建筑利润下降了39.1%和商业前运营支出。

电力部(Don Sahong项目):
本季度的实际完成率为2.9%,比上一季度的4.8%降低了1.9%。因此,建筑收入和利润分别相应减少至6100万令吉(2019年第二季度:1.002亿令吉)和1640万令吉(2019年第二季度:2690万令吉)。

资源部:
在现货/临时需求的推动下,石灰产品的销量quarter-on-quarter增长6.7%,而现有客户的需求仍然疲弱,这是由于地区工业产出下降所致。受汇率影响,平均售价下降了2.0%。资源部的税前盈利增加22.8%至540万令吉(2019年第二季度:440万令吉),原因是销量增加和产能利用率提高。

物业部:
税前盈利增长71.9%或90万令吉,至210万令吉,因有发展收入。

前景:
电力部:
1.水电-Don Sahong水电项目(“ Don Sahong项目”):
Électricité du Laos(“ EDL”)通往老挝/柬埔寨边界的500KV旁路传输线以及Electricite Du Cambodge(“ EDC”)从老挝/柬埔寨边界至柬埔寨Stung Treng的500KV连接传输线的建设,计划在年底之前完成。

管理层仍然有信心在2020年1月底之前实现商业运营日期(COD)。预计集团将在2019年最后一个季度中确认大部分(如果不是全部)剩余的5%的建筑收入和利润。美佳第一预计将在500KV输电线路完工之前在第四季度确认已调试涡轮的部分能源销售,该输电线路能够传输高达85 MW的电力。 2019年9月12日,老挝的EDL与柬埔寨EDC签署了新的PPA,以向柬埔寨出售高达500兆瓦的水电。这是在2019年3月6日早些时候双方签署的195 MW PPA的基础上再增加的。

2.太阳能:
(i)大型太阳能(“ LSS”):
2019年8月19日,美佳第一拥有80%权益的子公司BSSB提交了马来西亚最新的大型太阳能公开招标计划(“ LSS3”),以开发和运营100 MWac LSS光伏电站。招标结果预计将于2020年第一季度公布。如果成功,预计该项目将从2022年开始为集团的收益做出积极贡献。

(ii)太阳能商业/工业屋顶:
于2019年9月25日,美佳第一与Pekat Teknologi Sdn Bhd(「Pekat」)成立55:45的合资企业,以投资于马来西亚及海外的商业/工业屋顶太阳能项目。

资源部:
由于工业活动放缓,预计现有客户对生石灰的区域需求将在最后一个季度连续下降。为了缓解现有客户需求的放缓,管理层将继续积极努力以争取该地区的新客户。在需求没有增长的情况下,较低的产能利用率预计将在2019年第四季度增加单位生产成本的压力。

物业部:
由于马来西亚住宅物业市场疲弱,美佳第一无计划重启其开发部门。
-----------------------------
James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:

a) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM1.90 (dividend RM0.025) in 1 year 3 months 7 days, total return is 169.2%

b) PRLEXUS (PROLEXUS BHD), recommended on 25 Aug 19, initial price was RM0.455, rose to RM1.09 in 2 months 23 days, total return is 139.6%

c) JAKS (JAKS RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 20 Jan 19, initial price was RM0.575, rose to RM1.37 in 9 months 28 days, total return is 138.3%

d) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM1.47 (dividend RM0.04) in 1 year 4 months 18 days, total return is 89.9%

e) MI (MI TECHNOVATION BERHAD), recommended on 2 Jun 19, initial price was RM1.67, rose to RM2.64 (dividend RM0.01) in 5 months 17 days, total return is 58.7%

f) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM1.26 in 11 months 3 days, total return is 57.5%

g) PWROOT (POWER ROOT BHD), recommended on 7 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.59, rose to RM2.26 (dividends RM0.083) in 1 Year 1 month 12 days, total return is 47.4%

h) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.39 (dividend RM0.018) in 10 months 25 days, total return is 45.9%

i) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.73 (dividend RM0.07) in 14 months 27 days, total return is 41.7%

j) PESTECH (PESTECH INTERNATIONAL BHD), recommended on 2 Jun 19, initial price was RM1.04, rose to RM1.34 in 5 months 17 days, total return is 28.8%

k) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.21 (dividend RM0.22) in 1 Year 1 month 5 days, total return is 28.6%

l) DESTINI (DESTINI BHD), recommended on 24 Sep 19, initial price was RM0.20, rose to RM0.235 in 1 months 24 days, total return is 17.5%

m) SERBADK (SERBA DINAMIK HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 29 Jul 18, initial price was RM3.96, rose to RM4.29 (dividends RM0.111) in 1 Year 3 months 19 days, total return is 11.1%

n) SWKPLNT (SARAWAK PLANTATION BHD), recommended on 24 Mar 19, initial price was RM1.55, rose to RM1.65 (dividend RM0.05) in 7 months 26 days, total return is 9.7%

o) FIAMMA (FIAMMA HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 23 Sep 18, initial price was RM0.495, rose to RM0.505 (dividend RM0.0225) in 1 year 1 month 27 days, total return is 6.6%

p) TSH (TSH RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 30 Jun 19, initial price was RM0.90, rose to RM0.955 in 4 months 19 days, total return is 6.1%

q) STRAITS (STRAITS INTER LOGISTICS BHD), recommended on 28 Jul 19, initial price was RM0.21, rose to RM0.22 in 3 months 19 days, total return is 4.8%

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James Ng
-----------------------------------
[MEGA FIRST CORP BHD: Construction of the 500KV by-pass transmission line by Électricité du Laos (“EDL”) to the Laos/Cambodia border and the 500KV connecting transmission line by Electricite Du Cambodge (“EDC”) from Laos/Cambodia border to Stung Treng in Cambodia is scheduled for completion before the year end]

3Q19 vs 3Q18:
The Group recorded revenue from continuing operations of RM125.5 million, 42.7% lower than RM219.1 million achieved a year ago primarily due to a 62.8% decrease in construction revenue recognition. Group pre-tax profit in the current quarter came in 63.3% lower year-on-year at RM18.9 million, compared to RM51.6 million reported in the corresponding quarter last year largely due to lower construction profit which declined by 62.5% to RM16.4 million. PBT in the current quarter was also weighed by the absence of RM6.4 million fair value gain on investment property and pre-commercial operational expenses of Don Sahong.

Power Division (Don Sahong Project):
Current quarter physical completion was lower at 2.9% (3Q2019: 8.0%) as the project neared completion. Consequently, construction revenue fell RM103.0 million to RM61.0 million while construction profit declined RM27.3 million to RM16.4 million.

Resources Division:
Despite slower demand from existing customers in the domestic and export markets due to lower industrial output, sales volume of lime products for the current quarter rose 8.3% year-on-year, bolstered by higher spot/ad-hoc demand in the export and domestic markets. Pre-tax profit improved 19.2% to RM5.5 million against RM4.6 million recorded a year ago on higher sales volume and improved plant utilisation, partially offset by absence of RM0.5 million gain on disposal of plant and equipment.

Property Division:
Pre-tax profit declined 74.7% to RM2.1 million (3Q2018: RM8.2 million) as a result of the absence of RM6.4 million fair value gain on investment property recorded in 3Q2018, partially offset by RM0.6 million pre-tax development profit from the sale of 2 property units in the current quarter.

YTD19 vs YTD18:
Excluding discontinued operations, the Group registered a total revenue of RM506.4 million, representing a 22.5%, declined from RM653.2 million last year. The decrease was mainly attributable to a 32.3% decrease in construction revenue contribution from Don Sahong Project.

Group pre-tax profit from continuing operations contracted 35.9% from RM146.6 million to RM93.9 million in the 9-month period ended 30 September 2019. This was mainly due to lower construction profit (down 31.8% or RM41.5 million), the absence of RM6.4 million fair value gain on investment properties recorded in same period in 2018, an 18.6% or RM3.0 million decline in PBT of Resources Division to RM13.3 million and pre-commercial operational expenses of Don Sahong.

Power Division (Don Sahong Project):
Don Sahong Project recognised 16.0% of physical completion in the 9-month period ended 30 September 2019, lower than 24.5% registered in the same period last year as Don Sahong Project entered into its final year of construction. Consequently, construction revenue fell RM158.0 million to RM331.1 million, while pre-tax construction profit decreased from RM130.4 million to RM88.9 million.

Resources Division:
Sales of lime products was lowered by 1.0% at RM100.6 million. Sales volume of lime products downed 3.0% year-on-year on slower industrial output in the region, resulting in slower demand from existing domestic and export customers. Resource division’s pre-tax profit fell 18.6% to RM13.3 million (YTD30.9.2018: RM16.3 million) due to higher unit production cost (as a result of lower plant utilisation rate), lower sales volume of lime products, increased financing costs, higher inventory written off and lower gain on disposal of plant and equipment.

Property Division:
Pre-tax profit declined 59.5% to RM4.5 million (YTD30.9.2018: RM11.0 million) on the absence of RM6.5 million fair value gain on investment properties recognised in the same period last year.

As at 30 September 2019, total borrowings (exclude hire purchase) amounted to RM771.7 million (31 December 2018: RM598.7 million). The increase in total borrowings since 31 December 2018 was primarily attributable to loan drawdown of RM168.8 million to part finance the construction of the Don Sahong Project.

3Q19 vs 2Q19:
Excluding discontinued operations, Group revenue declined 21.1% quarter-on-quarter from RM159.1 million to RM125.5 million. The decline was primarily attributable to 39.1% contraction in construction revenue, partially offset by an increase in revenue contribution from both Resources (up 5.1%) and Property (up 82.7%) divisions. Group’s PBT decreased 37.0% or RM11.1 million quarter-on-quarter to RM18.9 million (2Q2019: RM30.0 million) largely driven by a 39.1% decline in construction profit and pre-commercial operational expenses of Don Sahong.

Power Division (Don Sahong Project):
Physical completion of 2.9% for the current quarter was 1.9% lower than 4.8% reported in the preceding quarter. As such, both construction revenue and profit decreased correspondingly to RM61.0 million (2Q2019: RM100.2 million) and RM16.4 million (2Q2019: RM26.9 million) respectively.

Resources Division:
Sales volume of lime products rose 6.7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by spot/ad-hoc demand while demand from existing customers remain weak resulting from slower regional industrial output. Average selling price was 2.0% lower on currency effects. Resources Division’s pre-tax profit improved by 22.8% to RM5.4 million (2Q2019: RM4.4 million) on higher sales volume and improved capacity utilisation rate.

Property Division:
Pre-tax profit rose 71.9% or RM0.9 million to RM2.1 million on development income.

Prospects:
Power Division:
1. Hydropower - Don Sahong Hydropower Project (“Don Sahong Project”):
Construction of the 500KV by-pass transmission line by Électricité du Laos (“EDL”) to the Laos/Cambodia border and the 500KV connecting transmission line by Electricite Du Cambodge (“EDC”) from Laos/Cambodia border to Stung Treng in Cambodia is scheduled for completion before the year end.

Management remains confident of achieving commercial operation date (COD) by the end January 2020. The Group is expected to recognise most, if not all, of the remaining 5% of the construction revenue and profit in the final quarter of 2019. Additionally, the Group is expected to recognise some energy sales from commissioned turbines in the fourth quarter before the completion of the 500KV line which is capable of transmitting up to 85 MW of power. On 12 September 2019, EDL of Laos signed a new PPA with EDC of Cambodia to sell up to 500 MW hydro power to Cambodia. This is on top of the 195 MW PPA signed between the same parties earlier on 6 March 2019.

2. Solar:
(i) Large Scale Solar (“LSS”):
On 19 August 2019, BSSB, an 80%-owned subsidiary of the Group, submitted a bid for Malaysia’s latest Large Scale Solar open tender scheme (“LSS3”) to develop and operate a 100 MWac LSS photovoltaic plant. Results of the tender are expected to be announced in 1Q2020. If successful, the project is expected to contribute positively to Group earnings from 2022.

(ii) Commercial/Industrial Rooftops Solar:
On 25 September 2019, the Group entered into a 55:45 joint venture with Pekat Teknologi Sdn Bhd (“Pekat”) to investment in commercial/industrial rooftop solar projects in Malaysia and oversea.

Resources Division:
Regional demand of quicklime from existing customers is expected to weaken sequentially in the last quarter as a result of slowing industrial activities. To mitigate the slowdown in the demand from existing customers, management will continue to aggressively work on securing new customers in the region. In the absence of demand growth, lower capacity utilisation is expected to add pressure to unit production cost in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Property Division:
The Group has no plans to restart its development segment given the weak residential property market in Malaysia.
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I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:

the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year

I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.

I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page.

This sharing is purely a discussion and analysis of the sector, buying or selling at your own risk. Please Like and Share this post. Final decision is always yours, thank you.

James Ng

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