Highlights

HLBank Research Highlights

Author: HLInvest   |   Latest post: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:39 AM

 

Automotive - Apr 2022: Affected by Supply Chain Woes

Author: HLInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:39 AM


Apr 2022 TIV slowed down to 56.2k units, indicating a drop of -3.6% YoY and -21.9% MoM due to on-going supply chain issues. Nevertheless, YTD TIV still registered a growth of +8.0% to 216.0k units, mainly due to low base effect. We maintain our 2022 TIV expectation at 600k units (+17.9% YoY), as we expect continued momentum of high sales volume till Jun 2022, driven by the extended SST exemption measures and the various newly launched exciting models (launched in 2021 and early 2022). We reaffirm our NEUTRAL call on the automotive sector with top picks: DRB (BUY; RM2.30), MBMR (BUY; TP: RM4.80) and Sime Darby (BUY; TP: RM2.60).

Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) reported TIV for April 2022 at 56.2k units (-3.6% YoY; -21.9% MoM), affected by on-going supply chain disruption (including chip shortage). Overall TIV increased by +8.0% YTD to 216.0k units, mainly due to low base effect. At current juncture, we are maintaining our TIV expectation of 600k units for 2022, a growth of +17.9% YoY, as we expect continued high order deliveries in coming months prior to the ending of SST exemptions (car prices have reduced 2- 7%; paultan.org) until 30 Jun 2022 and the large order backlogs for the key OEMs i.e. Proton, Perodua, Honda, Toyota etc.

Despite the expected strong TIV recovery until mid-2022, we still maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the sector, as we expect TIV to drop post SST exemption expiry alongside the current ongoing global supply chain issues. Nevertheless, industry players are requesting for the government to consider further extend SST exemption until end 2022, in order to allow industry players and consumers to fully benefit from it. We advise investors to accumulate MBMR (BUY; TP: RM4.80) and DRB (BUY; TP: RM2.30), as we expect national OEMs to triumph over the longer term with potential growth from new export markets. We also like Sime Darby (BUY; TP: RM2.60) for its strong balance sheet and earnings sustainability on Australia industrial segment and robust demand for automotive across the group’s geographical operations.

For the month of April 2022, there was no data available for BMW, Mini, Mercedes, Peugeot and Kia.

Perodua (UMW and MBMR) recorded a sales of 25.7k units (+25.8% YoY; -4.1% MoM) in Apr 2022. We believe the OEM has discontinued the production of the current Alza model during the month (resulting to lower sales MoM), in order to prepare for upcoming new replacement model. YTD sales stood at 87.3k units (+11.5% YoY), relatively in line to achieve its targeted 247.8k units for 2022 as they manoeuvre through the on-going global shortage of semiconductors. The new Alza replacement is now open for booking with starting price of RM69k. Management has also guided for two updated models in later part of the year.

Proton (DRB) maintained its second spot in Apr with 8.4k units, despite a drop of -42.9% YoY and -31.5% MoM, affected by on-going supply chain disruption, especially on new generation SUV models. YTD, sales was at 34.0k units (-27.9% YoY), with a domestic market share of 15.7%. Including export volume of 1.6k units, total Proton sales was 35.5k units, which is relatively behind its 2022 sales target of 136-150k units (indicating a growth of +18.6%-30.8% YoY). Proton CEO has guided 3 new model launchings in the coming next 2 years 2023-2024. Proton has recently launched Saga MC2 facelift model.

Toyota (UMW) reclaimed its top position within foreign segment with 6.9k units (-24.8% YoY; -18.1% MoM) in Apr 2022. Similarly, Toyota was also affected by supply chain issues. YTD sales was 29.1k units (+11.5% YoY), which sustained its top foreign position with 12.3% market share. Toyota is relatively ahead of its sales target of 73k units for 2022. Upcoming exciting new launch would be a new EV model (likely by year end).

Honda (DRB) recorded Apr sales of 6.0k units (+18.5% YoY; -42.8% MoM), affected by supply chain woes (resulting inconsistent production output at its Melaka Pant). YTD sales was 26.5k units (+33.3% YoY), still below Toyota. Honda is targeting sales of 80k units for 2022, which will enable the marque to reclaim back its top position within the foreign segment. Honda is expected to launch the new HR-V model soon, and followed by the new BR-V model in coming months.

Mazda (BAuto) sales remained strong in Apr with 1.8k units (+14.2% YoY; -17.6% MoM), stayed ahead of Nissan, mainly driven by continued high delivery to clients during the month. YTD sales was up by +35.1% YoY to 5.4k units, overtaking Nissan. We expect Mazda to launch new MX-30 EV (recently previewed to the media), CX-30 CKD and CX-8 facelift in 2022.

Nissan (TCM) sales was 1.6k units (-0.9% YoY; -12.7% MoM) in Apr, increased YTD to 5.3k units (+23.9% YoY). The sales remained relatively low as Nissan maintained its strategy to avoid stiff market competition, while leveraging onto its core models: Almera, Serena and Navara.

 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 May 2022

Labels: SIME, DRBHCOM, MBMR
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Yew Lee Pacific Group - An Industrial Brush Specialist

Author: HLInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:37 AM


Although Yew Lee has a material exposure to the glove sector (c.80% to FY21 revenue), we believe short term headwinds plaguing the industry has contained repercussion to Yew Lee’s bottomline, as expectations of inventory draw down activities being at the tail-end should incentivize glove buyers to restock by 2H22. We are projecting FY21-23 core net profit CAGR of 8.6%, underpinned by higher margin customisable industrial brush sales to existing and potential new customers (Malaysia and overseas) from the semiconductor, glass making and agricultural sectors. We value Yew Lee at RM0.35/share (25% upside from IPO price), based on a P/E multiplier of 15.6x against FY23 EPS of 2.24sen.

An industrial brush specialist. Yew Lee is principally involved in manufacturing of industrial brushes and trading of industrial hardware and machinery parts. In FY21, the manufacturing segment contributed 70% to the group’s revenue while the rest was derived from the trading segment. In addition, we gathered that c.80% of Yew Lee’s manufacturing sales came from the rubber glove sector while the remaining c.20% was from the glass manufacturing, E&E, agriculture, and food processing industries.

Enlarged glove production capacity to sustain Yew Lee profitability. Despite the profit downturn in glove players which have led to a perception of a significant slowdown in Yew Lee’s brush sales volume, we reckon the sales order will stay resilient as brushes are deemed to be “wear and tear parts” (replaceable every 1-2 weeks in general, depending on the utilization rate). Based on our channel checks, gloves players are currently running at c.65% utilization rate, still below the pre pandemic level of above 80%. However, we note that the tail-end of inventory drawdown activities by buyers coupled with the uptick bias in glove’s ASPs (amid rising input cost) will incentivize buyer to restock again, and accelerate utilization rate by 2H22. According to the Disposable Medical Gloves Market report, the global Disposable Medical Gloves market will grow with a CAGR of 9% from 2021 to 2027. On top of that, the outbreak of Covid-19 that led to glove players expanding their production aggressively over the last two years has enlarged the overall glove supply, translating to a bigger market pie for Yew Lee’s brush business.

Making further inroads into Thailand and Indonesia markets. By leveraging its expertise in the custom-made industrial brushes for Malaysia glove manufacturers, Yew Lee will be tapping further into Thailand (i.e. 2nd largest glove producing country in the world) and Indonesian markets. To achieve its goals, Yew Lee is in discussion with several distributors with experience and networks in Thailand and Indonesia for potential non-exclusive distributorship arrangements, to further capitalize on the enlarged glove production capacity by leveraging on its solid track record in supplying industrial brushes to world well-known glove manufacturers, namely Top Glove, Hartalega group and Riverstone Holdings.

Diversifying into more lucrative businesses. To mitigate the concentration risk in gloves, Yew Lee will further diversify its industrial brushes to more customized and higher margin demand from semiconductor, glass manufacturing and agriculture segments. We expect more meaningful contributions from these segments when the construction of its new warehouse (well equipped with modern machineries and equipment) is completed by 2H23 to improve its manufacturing capabilities and efficiency.

Fair value of RM0.35. We value Yew Lee at TP RM0.35, based on a target PE of 15.6x FY23 EPS, benchmarking its major customers in the glove industry, but lower than Bursa Industrial index 5-year mean of 17.3x. Besides, we opine that the assigned PE is well-supported by Yew Lee strong core net profit margin and ROE.

 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 May 2022

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SP Setia - Weak Start

Author: HLInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:36 AM


SP Setia’s 1Q22 core LATAMI of -RM4m was below expectations due to lower than-expected sales achieved. We lower our earnings forecast by -40.3%/-37.2% for FY22/FY23 to account for lower sales assumptions and introduce FY24 forecast. Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of RM0.98 (from RM1.26) based on a higher discount of 80% (from 75%) to RNAV of RM4.90. While the group has healthy earnings visibility, however, we note that the group’s prospects are weakening given the expected slowdown in sales momentum (from the end of HOC and the beginning of the interest rate upcycle) as well as the persistent rise in construction cost. Furthermore, the group also has a high net gearing ratio of 0.99x (including RCPS).

Below expectations. SP Setia recorded 1Q22 core LATAMI of -RM4m (4Q21: RM126.2m; 1Q21: RM40.3m), which came in below our and consensus full year forecasts of RM333.5m and RM361.1m, respectively. The negative deviation was mainly due to lower-than-expected sales achieved. 1Q22 core LATAMI was derived after we included payment to RCPS holder amounting RM66m and excluding net EIs amounting to RM5.5m mainly from net exchange gain.

Dividend. None (1Q21: None).

QoQ. Revenue declined -16% due to lower sales impacted by the end of HOC which supported sales in the previous quarter. Subsequently, the group recorded core LATAMI of -RM4m (from RM126.2m in 4Q21) in line with the revenue decline, in addition to the RCPS payment in this quarter (no payment in 4Q21).

YoY. Revenue declined -17.6% due to lower sales impacted by the end of HOC which supported sales in SPLY. Consequently, the group recorded core LATAMI of - RM4m (from RM40.3m SPLY).

Sales and launches. SP Setia recorded new sales of RM679m (-22.5% QoQ; - 43.4% YoY), representing 17% of their full year sales target. The lower sales recorded was likely due to the end of HOC which supported sales last year. From total sales, completed inventories contributed 23.4% (vs. new launches and ongoing projects), while local sales contributed 92% (vs. international projects).

Outlook. SP Setia’s unbilled sales stand at RM9.84bn as at 1Q22 (from RM10.21bn in 4Q21), translating to a strong 2.6x cover on FY21 revenue, giving it earnings visibility of 2-3 years. While 1Q22 earnings were evidently weaker dragged by local sales negatively impacted by end of HOC, we note that the group’s earnings should improve in 2H22 contributed by revenue recognition from its Australia projects. Having said that, we note that the current upcycle in interest rate will negatively impact the group through (i) weaker property sales as property buyers’ mortgage instalments are expected to increase; and (ii) higher financial obligation especially given SP Setia’s high net gearing ratio of 0.99x including RCPS (vs. 0.96x in 4Q21). Furthermore, the persistent increase in building material costs would likely dent the margin of the group’s upcoming launches.

Forecast. We lower our earnings forecast by -40.3%/-37.2% for FY22/FY23 to account for lower sales and margin assumptions. We introduce FY24 forecast.

Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of RM0.98 (from RM1.26) based on a higher discount of 80% (from 75%) to RNAV of RM4.90 to reflect the increasingly challenging prospects as a result of (i) the expected slowdown in sales momentum given the end of HOC and the beginning of the interest rate upcycle and (ii) the persistent rise in construction cost. While the group has a healthy earnings visibility, however, we note that the group’s prospects are weakening given the reasons as highlighted above.

 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 May 2022

Labels: SPSETIA
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Sports Toto - Earnings Lifted by Jackpot Sales

Author: HLInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:35 AM


SPToto reported 3Q22 core net profit of RM85.2m which came in above expectations due to higher-than-expected jackpot sales. We increase our earnings forecast by +14.8% for FY22 to account for the results shortfall in the current quarter. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher TP of RM2.43 (from RM2.40) based on DCF valuation with WACC of 7.4% and TG of 2%. We believe that the group will continue to record positive sales recovery in the NFO segment supported by the economy recovery as well as the increased confidence and interest in the legal NFOs. Furthermore, the robust sales in its luxury car dealership segment will continue to contribute positively to the group.

Above expectations. SPToto reported 3Q22 core net profit of RM85.2m (+41.4% QoQ, +2.4x YoY) bringing 9M22’s sum to RM133.6m (-21.6% YoY) forming 78.1% of ours and 91.1% of consensus’ expectations. We deem this above our expectation as the 9M22’s sum was dragged by the loss making 1Q22. The positive deviation was due to higher-than-expected jackpot sales. 9M22 core PATAMI sum was arrived after adjusting for RM18.4m of EIs mainly from provision for inventories write-down.

Dividend. 2 sen, ex-date: 29 Jun 2022 (3Q21: 1.5 sen). 9M22: 4 sen (9M21: 8 sen).

QoQ. Revenue increased by +38.8% lifted by both gaming (+38.2%) and motor dealership (+39.9%). Gaming revenue increase was due to stronger sales driven by the higher accumulated prize from Supreme 6/58 jackpot as well as a seasonally stronger season due to CNY, while the higher motor sales was due to better sales activities as a result of the easing of Covid restrictions which was implemented in previous quarter to curb the Omicron variant. Consequently, core PATAMI improved by +41.4%.

YoY. Revenue increased by +54% YoY lifted by both gaming (+70.3%) and motor dealership (+41.6%). Gaming revenue increased strongly due to (i) stronger jackpot sales; and (ii) lower sales in SPLY due to MCO2.0 where all outlets except Sarawak were closed during 13 Jan to 18 Feb. Motor dealership sales increase was due to lockdown implemented in UK SPLY from 5 Jan to 12 Apr 2021. Consequently, core PATAMI rebounded strongly by +2.4x due to low base as well as stronger contribution from gaming which has a better margin.

YTD. Revenue was flattish at +1.9% YoY contributed by motor dealership (+21.8%) while partially offset by gaming (-18.5%). The lower gaming contribution was due to loss of operating days from 1 June to 13 Sept 2021, where 9M22 only has 96 draws (vs. 129 draws SPLY). The increase in revenue from the motor dealership segment was mainly lifted by the used car segment sales. Core net profit declined by -21.3% due to lower contribution from the gaming segment which has a better margin.

Outlook. SPToto’s Supreme 6/58 jackpot amounting to RM97.8m (largest in history) was won on 30 Mar. The leading up to the record amount sum and the subsequent winning event had generated tremendous social media buzz and press coverage, which translated to increased interest in the game and lifted earnings in 3Q22. Although the record amount jackpot was a one-off event, nonetheless, the positive effects on SPToto’s NFO segment are here to stay. The jackpot should restore punters’ confidence in legal NFOs as the winning payout is guaranteed, while punters may be discouraged to bet with illegal NFOs due to high risk of payment failure of game winnings. In addition, the jackpot should also fuel the recovery momentum of the NFO segment going forward.

Forecast. We increase our earnings forecast by +14.8% for FY22 to account for the results surprise in the current quarter due to higher jackpot sales.

Maintain BUY; TP: RM2.43. Following our earnings adjustment our TP is increased slightly to RM2.43 (from RM2.40) based on DCF valuation with WACC of 7.4% and TG of 2%. We believe that the group will continue to record positive sales recovery in the NFO segment supported by the economy recovery as well as the increased confidence and interest in the legal NFOs. Furthermore, the robust sales in its luxury car dealership segment will continue to contribute positively to the group.

 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 May 2022

Labels: SPTOTO
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Lagenda Properties - Results Below Expectations

Author: HLInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:34 AM


Lagenda reported 1Q22 core PATMI of RM47m which came in below expectations due to lower-than-expected construction progress and sales activities. We lower our earnings forecasts by -7%/-17.5% for FY22/FY23 as we pencil in lower sales and margin assumptions and introduce FY24 forecasts. Maintain BUY with a lower TP of RM1.62 (from RM2.00) based on a higher 30% (from 20%) discount on estimated RNAV of RM2.31 per share as we factored in lower earnings forecasts, execution risks as it venture out of its home turf as well as the weakening property market. Nonetheless, we still like Lagenda for its exposure to the underserved affordable housing segment.

Below expectations. Lagenda recorded 1Q22 core PATMI of RM47m (-16.8% QoQ, -15.5% YoY). The results were below our (18.5%) and consensus (18.2%) full year forecasts. The negative deviation was due to lower-than-expected construction progress and sales activities.

QoQ. Revenue declined by -23.2% due to lower ongoing projects as several projects were completed in the previous quarter as well as lower sales achieved in the current quarter. Core PATAMI declined by a smaller magnitude of -16.8% due to higher gross profit margin achieved (42.6% vs. 38.3% in 4Q21 due to more progress recognition from the Lagenda Teluk Intan project which has a better GP margin).

YoY. Revenue declined by -15.7% due to lower construction activities resulting in lower revenue recognized in property (-12.2%) and construction (-84.6%) segments. Consequently, core PATAMI declined by -15.5%.

Sales and launches. 1Q22 sales was RM144.6m (-44.6% QoQ; -1.6% YoY) representing c.15.9% of the group’s full year target of RM910bn. There were no launches in 1Q22, but management believes that they are still on track to achieve their full year launch target of c.6k units with GDV of RM1bn. The launch pipeline in the remaining quarters of FY22 include new phases in Lagenda Teluk Intan, Lagenda Tapah and maiden launch in Sungai Petani (Kedah) township. Unbilled sales as at 1Q22 are RM604.8m (+0.1% QoQ), representing 0.72x cover of FY21 revenue.

Outlook. Lagenda will be venturing out of its home turf Perak (to Kedah, Johor and Pahang) for the first time starting from FY22. Its townships in Perak were highly successful and enjoyed >90% take up rate with superior PBT margin of >30%. While we believe there remains a strong demand for affordable housing in the states that Lagenda are expanding, nonetheless, the group will likely encounter early speed bumps in replicating its business model outside of its home ground in Perak due to the lack of familiarity with the local demographic and regulatory framework as well as the need to rebuild new working relationship with local contractors, suppliers and other stakeholders. As such, this will likely result in a slower speed of execution and possibly lower margin especially in the initial stage of launches.

Forecast. We lower our earnings forecasts by -7%/-17.5% for FY22/FY23 as we pencil in lower sales and margin assumptions due to reasons highlighted above. We introduce FY24 forecasts.

Maintain BUY with a lower TP of RM1.62 (from RM2.00) based on a higher 30% discount (from 20%) on estimated RNAV of RM2.31 to reflect (i) the execution risk (as highlighted above); and (ii) the weakening property market due to interest rate upcycle and persistent rise in construction cost. Having said that, we still like Lagenda for its exposure to the underserved affordable housing segment.

 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 May 2022

Labels: LAGENDA
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Evergreen Fibreboard - A Good Start

Author: HLInvest   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 May 2022, 9:33 AM


1Q22 core net profit of RM16.8m was within our expectation, making up 25% of our FY21 forecast of RM67.2m. Despite near term headwinds in the global macro environment, we opine that Evergreen’s well-integrated business segments as well as its diversified production bases across 3 countries would enable the group to weather through these uncertainties. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher TP of RM0.95 based on 12x P/E of FY22 EPS of 7.9 sen. Moreover, its strong operating cash flow coupled with no major capex in sight indicates that there is potential for the group to pay out higher dividends going forward.

Within expectations. Evergreen recorded 1Q22 core net profit of RM16.8m (QoQ: +12.1%; YoY: +1.2x) which came within expectations and made up 25% of our FY22 forecast of RM67.2m. 1Q22 core net profit was arrived at after adjusting for (i) receivables write-off (RM60k); (ii) gain on disposal of PPE (RM22k); (iii) Impairment of assets (RM1.0m) and; (iv) forex gain (RM1.8m).

Dividend. Declared final dividend of 1.5 sen/share in respect of FY21, ex-date to be announced later.

QoQ. Revenue increased by +11.2% mainly contributed by Thailand (+48.7%) but partially offset by Malaysia (-11.3%) and Indonesia (-21.9%). The increase in revenue from Thailand was primarily due to shipment of deferred goods from 4Q21 as well as higher ASP and production volume. The decrease in revenue for Indonesia was due to a delay in shipment of goods but was partially mitigated by higher ASP whereas the decrease in revenue for Malaysia was due to lower production volume resulting in lower sales. This was caused by disruptions in log supply caused by shortage of foreign labour as well as the prolonged wet weather earlier this year. The lower production volume was similarly partially mitigated by higher ASP Consequently, core net profit increased by +12.1% driven by higher ASP despite higher raw material costs.

YoY. Revenue increased by +36.9% contributed by Thailand (+1.3x) and Indonesia (+0.7%) but offset by Malaysia (-5.3%). The increase in revenue from Thailand and Indonesia was due to higher ASP and sales volume. The decrease in Malaysia was due to lower sales volume of its panel boards despite higher ASP. Core net profit increased by a larger magnitude of +1.2x from RM7.5m to RM16.8m. This is due to higher GP margin of 24.8% (vs. 17.4% SPLY) as a result of higher ASP which more than offset the higher raw material costs.

Outlook. Evergreen’s 1Q22 results came in line with expectations, despite some issues faced in its Malaysia segment caused by shortage of foreign labour and prolonged wet weather earlier this year, as the group continues to benefit from continued ASP growth and sustained demand from all of its main sectors. However, we note that Evergreen might see a weaker 2Q22 due to near term headwinds such as (i) elevated raw material costs caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and inflationary pressures; (ii) lingering supply chain issues and; (iii) lower operating days due to the Raya holidays. The group will use the downtime to perform plant maintenance and build up its wood stock. However, we believe Evergreen will be able to overcome these issues as we reiterate that these near term headwinds are not structural or permanent in nature as well as the fact that the group has well -integrated business segments (Evergreen operates its own glue plant) and has a diversified base of operations in 3 countries (Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia).

Forecast. Our FY22/23 forecasts increase slightly by 1.4%/1.1% post update of our model with FY21 audited accounts. We introduce FY24 forecasts.

Maintain our high conviction BUY call with a slightly higher TP of RM0.95 based on 12x P/E of adjusted FY22 EPS of 7.9 sen (from 7.8 sen). We remain positive on the group’s outlook in FY22 for the reasons mentioned above. Moreover, we believe Evergreen will continue to benefit from (i) the stronger USD to MYR exchange rate (2QTD: RM4.32/USD) as >70% of the group’s revenue is denominated in USD while costs are mainly in local currencies; (ii) continued strong export demand from the Middle East; (iii) potential capacity increase in the RTA segment from foreign labour intake and; (iv) increase in utilisation rate in Malaysia (as tight wood supply normalizes following the arrival of dryer weather). Moreover, its strong operating cash flow coupled with no major capex in sight indicates that there is potential for the group to pay out higher dividends going forward.

 

Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 24 May 2022

Labels: EVERGRN
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