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Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks

Author: Icon8888   |   Latest post: Mon, 25 Nov 2019, 11:10 AM

 

(Icon) Eco World International - Why I Am Adding More

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 16 Dec 2019, 11:08 AM


Lat week, there were two major developmets for Eco World International (Ewint). Firstly, the Tories won the UK election. Secondly, the company announced a very strong set of results. With market cap of RM2.4 bil and latest Q net profit of approximately RM110 mil, the group is trading at undemanding prospective PER of 5.5 times (based on annualised EPS).  

 

However, share price has not moved much. Many investors took the opportunity to lock in profit and cash out instead. Even I myself have contemplated doing so (buy on rumours sell on facts). With 2.4 bil shares, the stock has market cap of RM2.4 bil. Everybody knows that its earning is based on the few property projects currently pending completion. It seems that at current price, the market has more or less factored in its earning potential. CIMB analyst, for example, forecasts that FY2020 earning will be extremely strong, but beyond that, EPS will drop to only 5 sen in FY2021. Hence the decision to downgrade to HOLD.

 

 

At first look, the analyst is correct as she is making her recommendation on the premise that earning will peak next year pursuant to completion of the projects in hand. A Good investor always acts one step ahead of others.

 

But if you think about it (Second Level Thinking), you will realise that her view is flawed. This is because Ewint is NOT a concession based company with finite lifespan. Instead, the recent resolution of UK political crisis through Conservative Party winning of majority is the beginning of a new boom cycle for Ewint. Upon reading this, many people will disagree with me (First Level Thinking again). They will argue that Brexit is far from being resolved, and there will be rocky roads ahead.

 

Well, if that is the case, they don't really understand the true risks posed by Brexit. Let me explain.

 

Many people have this impression that an unresolved Brexit will adversely affect Ewint's operation. Wrong.

 

It is true that Brexit will create certain uncertainties for businesses. But Brexit will have minimal impact on Ewint. If the UK exits Europe, Ewint is fine. If the UK does not exit, Ewint is also fine. If the UK fails to resolve Brexit and was stuck somewhere in the middle (like in past three years), Ewint will also be fine.

 

This is because the London housing market is facing severe supply shortage. Ewint has locked in substantial landbank over past two years (by capitalising on the Brexit panic). No matter what happens to Brexit in the next few years, Ewint's direction is clear : develope the landbank to tap the strong demand for housing in London. This can be done either through Built to Rent or though conventional property launches.

 

If that is the case, you may ask, then why did Ewint share price drop to as low as 60 sen in past few months ? Wasn't that proof that Brexit uncertainties can do a lot of harm ? And won't the same problem happen again in the future (knowing that Brexit is far from being resolved) ?

 

The all time low share price as described above was actually caused by two risk factors :

(a) the risk of No Deal Brexit; and

(b) the risk of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

 

Let us go though these two factors one by one.

 

No deal Brexit - In my opinion, it will never happen. The relationship between Europe and UK is very close. They are like a family, eventually things will be sorted out.

 

Jeremy Corbyn - This gentleman is dangerous because he is an unrepentant Communist. He threatened to impose high taxes on corporations, launch hundreds of thousands of affordable housing which will drastically cut down demand for residential products that developers such as Ewint relies on as bread and butter, and also force landlords to give tenants rights to buy over properties from them at discount, etc. With such hostile policies, who would dare to invest in UK properties ?

 

But fortunately, Jeremy Corbyn is out of the picture. He poses no more threat to Ewint and other developers as well as businesses in UK.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

Ewint is owned by two very strong shareholders : Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin and Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan. Ewint was listed in 2017 at RM1.20. It is very unlikely that the stock will have no further upside going forward. These two shareholders are famous for value creation. They do not commit their funds easily in business. For whatever they do, they will not rest until market cap has ballooned substantially to create wealth for them.

 

Of course, in business there is a limit to will power. You cannot get rich just because you have strong desire to do so. The market condition must be favorable. In Ewint's case, the market condition is INDEED favorable. There is plenty of room to grow further. Whoever that dismiss Ewint as fully valued just because FY2021 EPS is likely to experience a dip have not stretched their imagination far enough to factor in potential earning from future sales and projects.

 

If you are a speculator, you might want to cash out now. But if you are an investor, you should take the opportunity to buy more. The worst is over. The company is ready to go full throttle, targeting to grow its Built to Rent business multiple folds in coming years. 

 

With a bit of patience, you will be amply rewarded. 

Labels: EWINT
  9 people like this.
 
mmk79 I still holding tight tight, not even 1 share dispose.
16/12/2019 12:00 PM
GoldenShares what is yr TP ? Icon
16/12/2019 12:10 PM
paperplane oops, drop
16/12/2019 3:57 PM
abang_misai Now its share price is too high. Wait for it to go down to a reasonable level to participate. This is to reduce the risk. Don't forget market is negative on property. So, no need to rush in to buy up.
16/12/2019 4:11 PM
abang_misai Cjcen on an interesting turnaround story.

When it first announced its planning to do fully auto-sorted courier-service, its share price hit Rm1.40 in 2016.

Now the said courier-service building already obtained CF and its auto-sorters started operation on October 2019, its share price hit Rm0.30 level due losses resulted from its start up cost.

Second level thinking (foresee what will take place in months to come) & control risk (buy at bottom). Virtually, risk free.
16/12/2019 4:18 PM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.
16/12/2019 8:07 PM
abang_misai To maintain winning streak in Bursa, it is a must to get “third-level thinking” deployed.
16/12/2019 8:12 PM
Connie555 Ass Ass Lee second level thinking think that Thong Kok Khee will actually declare dividend to him will trap him in INSAS for many years. Buy to enjoy dividend but how to know it will declare dividend or not.
16/12/2019 10:46 PM
trapped Buy more to get trap more? Already trapped in ABMB, YTL Power how to escape?
17/12/2019 7:22 AM
Sslee Hi Connie555,
My first level thinking telling me Insas is a cheaper entry into Inari and I can enjoy the growth and dividend from Inari at cheaper cost to me.

My second level thinking telling me after Insas warrants and PA expired on 25th 2020 Insas can save 6m of PA interest payment and Insas price and dividend should start to move north.

My third level thinking telling me TSHS and Dato’ Wong will have better success if their take over Insas rather than Plus. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-halim-saad-ups-his-bid-plus-30

Thank you
17/12/2019 7:52 AM
abang_misai So called Multiple-level thinking is a pure guess formation aka speculation that you destroy you.
17/12/2019 7:58 AM
Sslee Dear all,
The third level thinking will tell you after Brexit, services and manufacturing goods going to EU from UK will need to pay export tax to EU. Then Banks and manufacturers that depend on EU market will need to move base to EU. UK will lost its status as Europe Financial center and EU citizen who work in London will move back to EU, then what will happen to property market.

Thank you
17/12/2019 8:07 AM
Sslee Dear abang_misai
Totally agree with you. And Benjamin Graham quote: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

So we only need first level thinking; this quarter earnings is better than last quarter and next quarter earnings will be better than this quarter to write 20 articles about it and earn RM 58 million within 9 months like Mr. Koon.

Please leave the second level thinking to 3iii and Philip; the market price will continues go north when companies can make stable, predictable and consistence revenue and earnings growth with PE from 25 to 50 to 100 and 150.

Also please don’t compete with calvintaneng with third level thinking of imagination and story-telling. He had contributed thousand articles to i3 and made so many chun-chun call.

For us if you want to make fast money please use your fist level thinking and your chart for stocks on "price and volume breakout"

Thank you
17/12/2019 9:05 AM
yflawrence This is good company but I think it is worth and less risk to get ECOWLD as it just break out and rise from the ground floor.....
17/12/2019 10:33 AM
SALAM Joint VSA..huhu
17/12/2019 10:34 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Actually SSlee also working hard on second level thinking with his MGO hopes for insas and bjland.

If you trap because of speculative activities, then it is not investing. Investing is about the business position first and foremost, MGO and goreng assumptions a far away third option.

Try to stay away from things like that and also calvin tan specialty: (ASS)ets. Just because you have a big castle doesn't mean bad management can't gamble it away...

Stick to profitable business first and foremost.
>>>>>>
Sslee Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.
16/12/2019 8:07 PM
17/12/2019 12:48 PM
Icon8888 Ass Ass Lee your Zero level thinking Bjland zero operating profit my Ewint a lot of operating profit

That is the difference

Don’t compare a retard with a PHD
17/12/2019 3:55 PM
Sslee Hahahaha Icon8888,
Bjland is for betting/trading nothing to compare about. So please hold tight tight EWINT and must have conviction like philip to buy more during Pchem and Gkent discount day and hold for long term and no cut win please.
17/12/2019 5:54 PM
kinuxian These are just first lvl thinking why housebuilder share in ftse surged lately... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/98947464-1D82-11EA-A37B-63BB81D511AD
If more investment goes into UK.. Pound might get strengthen as well. Boris bounce. There're reasons for Hong Kong taikun Li Ka Shing invest heavily in UK prior brexit.
17/12/2019 6:08 PM
kinuxian https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2019/08/26/hong-kongs-richest-man-makes-multibillion-dollar-bet-on-britain/amp/
17/12/2019 6:23 PM
Connie555 HAHAHAHAHAHHAHA OMG CANT STOP LAUGHING THAT ICON ACTUALLY CALL ASS ASS LEE ASS ASS LEE.....anyway no offence Sslee, u still hv my respect unlike 2 the academian cum lecturer...
17/12/2019 6:40 PM
paperplane Connie, u mean kcchongnz, and tht choivo or chiovo or volcano
17/12/2019 6:57 PM
paperplane Ipo rm1. 20? Wow, still negative return if don't think abt div? Ewint got div ah?
17/12/2019 6:58 PM
Sslee Hi Connie555
Thank you for the respect.
Intelligent people compare idea.
Stupid people compare qualification: Primary school, SRP, SPM, “A” level, Diploma, Degree, Master, PHD.
Small people compare title: Dato’, Dato’ Sri, Tan Sri, Tun
And Rich people compare length of sausage.
To each his own.

Thank you
17/12/2019 8:05 PM
Connie555 And you have two Ass, Ass Ass Lee, so do you compare the two Ass?

And with the comparison, which catergory you fall into? intelligent,stupid,small or Rich?
17/12/2019 8:30 PM
Connie555 i mean choivo n ROCky Balboa (he no longer name ricky after he proposed his ROC idea for Nobel award, yet he fail but nvm we honor him with this name ROCky)
17/12/2019 8:32 PM
Sslee Hahahaha Connie555,
We all have the capacity to be intelligent and rich or be stupid and small as long as we prepare to work hard and life long learning or be arrogant and think we already earned the PHD by reading some books.
17/12/2019 8:47 PM
Icon8888 Bjland is crap lah

After insas it is another retard stock for ass Lee
17/12/2019 10:22 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Support Icon
18/12/2019 7:20 AM
Sslee Hahahaha Icon8888,
We are not discussion Bjland in this article (Agreed Bjland is crap worth only half sen bet). Aren’t the discussions is about Brexit and your second level thinking “In Ewint's case, the market condition is INDEED favorable. There is plenty of room to grow further. Whoever that dismiss Ewint as fully valued just because FY2021 EPS is likely to experience a dip have not stretched their imagination far enough to factor in potential earning from future sales and projects”

Let’s start with Brexit consequences for the U.K
https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-consequences-4062999
1. The U.K. would no longer enjoy tariff-free trading with the EU, depending on the new trade agreement. Tariffs will raise prices of U.K. imports and costs of exports.
2. Brexit has already depressed growth in The City, the U.K.'s financial center. Growth was only 1.4% in 2018, and was close to zero in 2019. Brexit has diminished business investment by 11%. International companies would no longer use London as an English-speaking entry into the EU economy
3. Real estate: Lower economic growth could depress real estate prices.
4. Divorce bill: The U.K. would pay billions in euros for its “divorce bill.
5. Restricted labor movement: Constraints on immigration would hurt Britain’s labor force
6. Scotland voted against Brexit. The Scottish government believes that staying in the EU is the best for Scotland and the U.K. It has been pushing the U.K. government to allow for a second referendum

As of your so called second level thinking perhaps you can answer Philip’s second level thinking questions rather than questioning people have not stretched their imagination far enough to factor in potential earning from future sales and projects.
1. The main profit center for ewint is UK, where they are selling at 500-800 GBP per sqft. Now, how profitable is that versus acquisition costs and future expansions?
2. How much is the financial debt required to ride out a development phase, hoping to hit the sweet spot in home shortage and bring in the dough to pay out all the debt, all the while avoiding the danger of overexpansion and financial disaster?
3. How consistently can they mint money, and how long do we "invest" in the company before an eventual downturn, over commitment phase that seems to plague almost all developer companies?

Thank you
P/S: Please hold till FY2021, when EPS experience a dip to see whether people will talk about first level thinking or your so called second level thinking? Or run with their arms, legs or Ass? And since when stretching your imagination far enough is considered as second level thinking?
18/12/2019 7:36 AM
paperplane Aiyo. Ecoworld by tht tine takeover by pnb, again! Haha
18/12/2019 8:00 AM
Dato Seri John Lu This Ass Ass Lick talking until cow vome home but never earn any penny
18/12/2019 11:35 AM
Connie555 Ass Ass Lee now prepare question like hw he question BOD during agm oledi...asking for dividend....Icon better answer him like how Hengyuan director or Thong kok khee answer him......

*mic check, mic check*
Please ask slowly Mr.Ass , as the secretary need to note down the agm minute
18/12/2019 12:01 PM
stncws Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.

.......
take private 15c.....
18/12/2019 12:04 PM
Kukuman What is the motive for the Author to tell all and sundry he is buying more?
18/12/2019 2:37 PM
newbie911 Holland?
20/12/2019 12:30 AM
abang_misai any latest news?
20/12/2019 11:32 AM
Sslee Dear all,
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/12/20/bailout-fears-unsettle-khazanah-amid-merger-plan-to-create-giant-property-firm/

Now you know who to blame in making house unaffordable.
Did anyone know in UK most shops closed after 5 and on Sunday? UK only entertainment is football and drinking in Pub and generally people hate big houses because of cooling and heating cost during summer and winter.

Thank you.
20/12/2019 11:55 AM
Sslee Dear Icon8888,
May the Year of the Metal Rat bring you Good Luck, Good Health, Good Fortune, Plentiful of Laughter, Happiness, Success and at Peace with Oneself and Others. Happy Chinese New Year 2020

Thank you
P/S: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-01-22-story-h1482896892-Let_s_celebrate_the_coming_CNY_2020_together_with_well_wishing_of_Unity.jsp
22/01/2020 9:05 PM
Kyou https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1231458/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Michel-Barnier-trade-deal-Boris-Johnson-latest-update
24/01/2020 1:14 PM

(Icon) YTL Power - Reaching Inflection Point ? Completion of Jordan IPP By Mid 2020 Should Boost Earning

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 25 Nov 2019, 11:10 AM


1. Introduction

 

 

Recently, I added YTL Power to my portfolio. The stock is trading at all time low of 69 sen. The last time it traded that low was during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis.

 

Of course, a stock trading at all time low doesn't mean it is a good buy. We have to look at fundamentals, right ?

 

 

2. Historical and Prospective Earnings

 

Operation wise, the company has been facing a lot of headwind recently. Its Singapore power business is not doing well due to oversupply. Its 60% owned Yes 4G's 1BestariNet contract has just been discontinued by the government. In coming quarters, this division will pose a material drag to earning.

 

On the other hand, its Wessex Water is still extremely profitable (net profit of RM500 mil per annum, if I am not wrong). Its associate companies PT Jawa and Electranet Australia are doing well. 

 

Due to the existence of so many different entities, it is difficult for me to make a credible predicton of the group's earning. So I rely on analysts' earning forecast :

 

(Kenanga IB, 7 November 2019. Expects prospective FY2020 EPS of 7.7 sen)

 

(TA, 15 OCtober 2019. Expects prospective FY2020 EPS of 6.7 sen)

 

(MIDF, 30 August 2019. Expect prospective FY2020 EPS of 6.7 sen)

 

On average, Analysts expect prospective EPS of 7 sen. Based on current price of 70 sen, prospective PER is 10 times. I leave it to you to decide whether this is cheap or expensive. 

 

On average, Analysts forecast DPS of 4.5 sen. Based on current price of 70 sen, dividend yield is 6.4%. Yummy, nobody can dispute that. 

 

 

3. Jordan IPP 

 

YTL Power owns 45% equity interest in Attarat Power Company ("APCO") which is constructing a shale oil powered IPP in Jordan. The remaining 45% and 10% is owned by China's Guangdong Yudean Group and Estonia's Eesti Energia respectively. According to latest news, first unit is expected to commence operation by mid 2020 (7 months away). The second unit by end 2020.

 

 

AMMAN — An oil shale power station affiliated with the Attarat Power Company (APCO) is expected to be connected to the national electricity grid by May of next year at a capacity of 470MW, covering 15 per cent of Jordan’s electricity needs.

According to APCO experts, producing the aforementioned amount of electricity will require the combustion of 10 million tonnes of oil shale annually, the Jordan News Agency, Petra reported. 

Project CEO Jason Pok said that this project is one of the largest oil shale endeavours in terms of funding, stating that it has received $2.2 billion from international, Chinese, Malaysian and Estonian companies. 

 

The IPP has generation capacity of 470MW. Based on 45% equity interest, YTL Power's effective capacity is 212 MW. (For comparison purpose, MFCB and Jaks' effective capacity is 360 MW and 260 MW respectively).

   

According to this 2017 article, the 45% stake is expected to generate profit of USD47 mil upon full completion. Based on 4.1 exchange rate, it works out to be RM192 mil. 

 

(Please note the article below is quite old, dated 2017)

 

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on March 20 - 26, 2017.

 

YTL Power International Bhd has been a relatively lacklustre counter for investors. Between the sluggish take-off of its mobile broadband network, YES 4G, and the stark absence of new power projects, the group lacks a growth story compelling enough for investors.

The good news is that YTL Power expects to turn the corner, but it will take another three years to do so.

Last week, the company announced the successful financial close of its US$2.1 billion power venture in Jordan’s Attarat Power Company.

YTL Power will have a 45% stake in the 554mw (gross capacity) oil shale-fuelled mine mouth power plant project. China’s Guangdong Yudean Group Co Ltd will have 45% equity interest while Estonia’s Eesti Energia AS will hold the remaining 10% stake.

The financial close is a major milestone for the project, which has been in the works as far back as 2008. YTL Power only became involved in 2011. With the financing in place, construction is expected to begin later this year and conclude in late 2020.

So, how will Attarat fare?

A key selling point of the project is that it is entirely denominated in US dollars.

“Where else can you find a 30-year concession project that is in US dollars?” YTL Power executive director Yeoh Seok Hong points out.

“When we first began negotiating for this power plant, the exchange rate (ringgit versus US dollars) was only 3.10. Today, it is around 4.45,” he says.

On top of that, Yeoh guides that Attarat is expected to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) in the mid-teens. This does not include the IRR of the oil shale mining operation that accompanies the plant.

Assuming a modest 5% IRR for the mining operation, the entire project looks to be highly lucrative for YTL Power.

Based on a total IRR of 20%, a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that YTL Power’s share of the earnings will be around US$47 million a year. This is based on the 25:75 equity-to-debt ratio for the project, which works out to be a US$236 million equity investment from YTL Power.

The project is also attractive from a risk perspective. After all, it is fully guaranteed by the Jordanian government.

“The financing is only for 15 years. This includes about four years for construction. That means this project will be able to pay off the debt in about 11 years. After that, everything will be free cash flow,” explains Yeoh.

 

 

4. Concluding Remarks

 

(a) At current all time low share price and after factoring in expected contribution from APCO, YTL Power is an attractive investment proposition for me. Earning wise, the APCO profit coming in next year will make it very defensive, despite the expected continued weakness of its Singaporean and Yes 4G divisions.

 

(b) The coming 12th December 2019 UK election will be a very important event to watch. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn is a radical leftist. He vows to nationalise utilities such as post and water, etc.

In my opinion, this particular risk is mitigated by the fact that UK has strong Rule of Law tradition. So in the event that Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister, it will have to overcome many obstacles to implement his Socialist policies.

First of all, he needs to get approval from Parliament (which he is expected to be a minority government, even if he managed to snatch power). And then there is the Judiciary, which is expected to have a say on pricing, etc. So, I don't really worry too much about this particular risk.

In addition, according to various polls, the Conservative Party (which traditionally is the ruling party) is leading Labour by a huge margin. So, the risk of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM is really not that high.

(Jeremy Corbyn, YTL Power's nemesis)

 

(c) In view of the foregoing, I have decided to add YTL Power to my portfolio. The coming quarter result might not be pretty as 60% owned Yes 4G's performance is expected to be horrible. But due to the expected 2020 APCO catalyst, any weakness will be opportunity for me to buy more, provided 12 December UK election result is ok.

 

Labels: YTLPOWR
  4 people like this.
 
DK66 Is the concession based on "take or pay" basis ?
25/11/2019 11:29 AM
Icon8888 to be honest, I never check woh (will be surprise if YTL spend so much money without take or pay)

but the article did mention "Guaranteed by Jordan government"

: P
25/11/2019 11:32 AM
Sslee Dear Icon8888,
Mind sharing is oil shale mining a profitable business? What is the expected or measured reserved for this oil shale? Able to mine for 30 years?
25/11/2019 11:45 AM
Icon8888 sslee you have to learn NOT to micro manage

get the big picture right, and let go of the smaller issues

otherwise you won't be able to move

it is called Paralysis by Analysis
25/11/2019 11:49 AM
Sslee Hahahaha Icon8888,
USA now only build combine cycle NG power plant. Just curosity why USA never built oil shale power plant.
25/11/2019 11:56 AM
Sslee Dear Icon8888,
Below link on the power plant.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_in_Jordan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attarat_Power_Plant
25/11/2019 12:31 PM
Patrick13 I bought YTLP also bcoz this reason but my entry price is before dividend date.
25/11/2019 1:09 PM
abang_misai Thank you sir for this wonderful finding.
26/11/2019 8:04 PM
Henry8833 Dear Ion8888, maybe you miss out Indonesia plant and its profit potential...
27/11/2019 6:40 PM
Henry8833 I also bought this share when it was 75 sen, after ex dividend, the price never move and i continue to buy below 70 sen. I merely bought because of attractive div yields and believe price bottomed. And lots of my friends are losing money and on the principle of be greedy when others are fearful. Hope my bet is correct in next 1 year...
27/11/2019 6:52 PM
BlessedInvestor Thank you Icon8888 for good write up. Possible to include Indonesia power project? It will make YTL Power even more attractive in mid turn....
27/11/2019 11:48 PM
newbie911 Pound going all...buy call?
13/12/2019 10:59 AM
Icon8888 Yes can buy

Limited downside as Jordan‘s Attarat Power alone will contribute RM200 mil net profit next year
13/12/2019 11:01 AM
newbie911 YTL Power shares fell 4.1% to close at RM1.39 on Friday following the UK referendum.

Tht time 2016.

Now price only Rm0.69

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/28/ytl-power-unable-to-quantify-how-much-brexit-will-impact-the-group
13/12/2019 11:26 AM
abang_misai Balun this stock. Bottom uncovered. worst case we sit here to kutip dividen.
13/12/2019 12:44 PM

(Icon) Why You Should Learn To Invest In Overseas Stocks

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 19 Nov 2019, 9:26 AM


1. Misperception

 

All this while, I invested only in Bursa Malaysia. Occasionally, I saw people wrote articles about investing overseas such as US, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc. I seldom paid attention. To quote a relative of mine, "I would rather stay within my circle of competence."

 

And also, Malaysia is a developing nation, that is where the growth is going to be, right ? As an investor that craves capital gain, why would I want to invest in blue chips in developed countries such as the US ? They are mostly sleepy giants, aren't they ?

 

How wrong have I been.

 

 

2. Plenty of Multi Baggers

 

Last year I spoke to a friend that happened to have invested in US stocks. Nothing fancy or exotic, just some well known names such as Apple, Broadcom, Disney, etc. He told me he made quite a bit of money. Out of curiosity, I studied the historical prices of some famous names. It struck me how easy it is to find Multi Baggers.  

 

(Over the past 10 years, Adobe share price rose from USD30 to USD297, a gain of 900%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Airbus share price rose from EUR11 to EUR136, a gain of 1,136%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Amazon share price rose from USD138 to USD1,739 a gain of 1,160%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Apple share price rose from USD13 to USD265, a gain of 1,900%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Boeing share price rose from USD42 to USD371, a gain of 783%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Booking share price rose from USD91 to USD1,848, a gain of 1,900%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Broadcom share price rose from USD17 to USD312, a gain of 1,700%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Microsoft share price rose from USD20 to USD150, a gain of 650%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, TSM share price rose from USD8.5 to USD53, a gain of 523%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Disney share price rose from USD23 to USD144, a gain of 526%)

 

 

3. Key Observations

 

(i) Unlike in Malaysia, multi-baggers are much much more abundant in developed countries. This comes as a shock to most of us. Aren't the US and Europe matured economies ? Why are their companies growing so well ?

 

Because of two reasons : (a) These companies have moat. As such, they are able to register compounded growth over an extended period of time. (b) Despite from developed countries, these companies are world class and sell their products and services all over the world. There is no limit to their market size.

 

(ii) Fair enough, PE multiples of these companies are not low. They range from 20 times to 50 times. But this is the characteristics of strong companies. When you invest in good stocks, don't expect to buy cheap. You are supposed to pay a fair price for quality. Since they are growth companies, over the years their earning will catch up, making your original cost of investment looked cheap.

 

 

4. Concluding Remarks

 

(a) There are two ways you can invest in the stock market.

 

The first way is Value Investing. You buy stocks that are undervalued, wait for them to be re-rated within one to two years (sometime it takes shorter or longer than that), then you sell them and switch to other undervalued stocks, when the opportunity arise.

 

The second way is Growth Investing. You buy stocks that have moat. You hold on to them for ten to twenty years, or even longer. Due to earning growth, the stock price will rise conitnuously and deliver you few hundred to few thousands percent return.

 

(b) I practise both Value Investing and Growth Investing.

 

For Value Investing, I stick to Bursa Malaysia.

 

For Growth Investing, I will park my money with great stocks in developed economies such as US, Europe, Japan, etc. Why not Malaysia ? Because based on my observations, very few Malaysian companies have moat. The chance of picking wrong stocks is much higher compared to those in developed countries. The last thing I want is to hold on to a stock for 10 years only to find out that I was wrong, and the stock stagnated and did not generate the return I aim for.     

 

(c) For my foreign portfolio, I will not put my money in developing economies (Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc). Companies in these economies are likely similar to Malaysia. It is likely that not many will have real moat, and very few will eventually become multi baggers. For Value Investing involving switching from one stock to another every one to two years (not due to lack of patience, but due to cyclicality), I would rather play at my homeground, Malaysia whereby I will have the advantage of familiarity. 

  12 people like this.
 
Icon8888 Take it easy Ricky
19/11/2019 12:33 PM
Sslee Hahahaha
Icon8888 is now promoting capital flight from Bursa. No eye see on bursa already.
By the way I think US market bubble is growing bigger and bigger hope Incon8888 is not a running bull in a china store
19/11/2019 12:59 PM
Icon8888 I am suggesting people consider overseas

But no recommendation on when or where to enter

Investing is a life long undertaking. Many years ahead
19/11/2019 1:22 PM
Targeted Hehehe, Icon please change yr profile photo. Hard to explain but its uncomfortable
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Icon8888 Finally, you acknowledged growth investing. Welcome to my investing world and circle.
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

"When you invest in good stocks, don't expect to buy cheap. You are supposed to pay a fair price for quality. Since they are growth companies, over the years their earning will catch up, making your original cost of investment looked cheap."

>>>



Over the long term, great companies grow their intrinsic values, making their initial prices looking like bargains. Icon8888 is becoming interesting: a heuristic change.
19/11/2019 1:47 PM
Icon8888 that is Calvintaneng photo

========

Targeted Hehehe, Icon please change yr profile photo. Hard to explain but its uncomfortable
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
19/11/2019 1:58 PM
lching hahaha.......
19/11/2019 2:07 PM
Icon8888 you cannot be more wrong, I don't really belong to your world and circle

I have explained many times to you that I am not against Buffetology whereby you buy good companies at fair price and hold on for long term so as to enjoy compounded growth year after year. I think it is a fantastic concept

I disagree with you on two things :

(1) how you practise Buffetology. Your Nestle is a good company, but it is trading at 50 times PER, and its only market is Malaysia. As such, it is difficult to convince me that it will continue to grow and deliver capital gain over extended period of time. At most, it will be paying you good dividend (which is not so fantastic, for me).

(2) the way you condemn anything other than Growth Investing. I am open minded and accept both Growth Investing and Value Investing as valid investment philosophy.



3iii Icon8888 Finally, you acknowledged growth investing. Welcome to my investing world and circle.
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
19/11/2019 2:25 PM
RainT overseas market is to vast and complicated

need spend lots of time & effort to monitor

buy unit trust that have overseas exposure is smarter choice
19/11/2019 2:46 PM
RainT dont have much time to study overseas stocks

buy mutual fund is better
19/11/2019 2:51 PM
Icon8888 "overseas market is to vast and complicated "

That was exactly how I felt at the beginning (please read Section 1 of my article)

However, after I started investing overseas, I realised that due to the high quality of the companies (applicable to those strong companies in US), stock picking has actually become substantially less complicated

there are less risk factors to be considered

that is why in the Concluding Remarks, I mentioned that I will only invest in strong stocks in developed countries

so far, my only pick is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. It fulfils the criteria for long term hold due to its technological supremacy that almost makes it a monopoly OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AT LEAST
19/11/2019 2:53 PM
casualplay888 Icon8888 sifu, u bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from Taiwan stock market or the US stock market? I think it is also good to invest in Taiwan
19/11/2019 3:31 PM
UnicornP Icon's article only applicable to the top 2% of Malaysians who are extremely knowledgeable and filthy rich.
19/11/2019 3:59 PM
wiki123 Icon, I support you... when you go to overseas investing, one will discover the number of quality companies that's available... watchout for Disney too...
19/11/2019 5:00 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

Icon8888

I disagree with you on two things :

(1) how you practise Buffetology. Your Nestle is a good company, but it is trading at 50 times PER, and its only market is Malaysia. As such, it is difficult to convince me that it will continue to grow and deliver capital gain over extended period of time. At most, it will be paying you good dividend (which is not so fantastic, for me).

(2) the way you condemn anything other than Growth Investing. I am open minded and accept both Growth Investing and Value Investing as valid investment philosophy.

>>>>



Welcome all the same to the world of quality growth investing. Stay with quality for the long term. Generally you do not have to sell.
19/11/2019 5:20 PM
Sslee Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
19/11/2019 5:25 PM
stockraider Thats why i say u must use peter lynch strategy instead of buffet strategy bcos LYNCH offer u more investment choices mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > Nov 19, 2019 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
19/11/2019 5:28 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>
Posted by Sslee > Nov 19, 2019 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
>>>>


The power of compounding long-term is truly amazing. Beats these short term gains many hundreds of time over each year.
19/11/2019 5:29 PM
stockraider If u can get more than 100% in 4 mts like armada...are u not compounding leh ??

Posted by 3iii > Nov 19, 2019 5:29 PM | Report Abuse

>>>>
Posted by Sslee > Nov 19, 2019 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
>>>>


The power of compounding long-term is truly amazing. Beats these short term gains many hundreds of time over each year.
19/11/2019 5:31 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Everytime my portfolio value doubled, the incremental value of the last doubling period exceeds the gains derived from all the period before since inception of my portfolio.

That is the true power of compounding over the long term.
19/11/2019 5:35 PM
stockraider U slowly tunggu loh...NESTLE PE 50x will take at least 30 yrs to double loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Nov 19, 2019 5:35 PM | Report Abuse

Everytime my portfolio value doubled, the incremental value of the last doubling period exceeds the gains derived from all the period before since inception of my portfolio.

That is the true power of compounding over the long term.
19/11/2019 5:37 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>

stockraider U slowly tunggu loh...NESTLE PE 50x will take at least 30 yrs to double loh....!!

>>>>


Since 2009, Nestle price has gone up 7 multibaggers. At every price, raider asked those with Nestle to sell!
19/11/2019 5:46 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Raider should be honest.

Nestle has delivered hugely to its long term investors.
19/11/2019 6:00 PM
i3lurker lack of sleep shortens lifespan irrevocably
takes more than 2 weeks to recover disturbed sleep patterns
rich people are usually educated nowadays.
the illiterate rich have all died
educated people know how to take care of health.

for the rich, there is no reason to invest in the US.

for the poor, they just cannot afford it.

leaving just those extra greedy semi-rich people who want more money at the expense of shorter lifespan. Die faster never mind. The money fanatics.
19/11/2019 7:08 PM
probability wei..is that image really calvintan? but it matches the image i had on him quite closely!...really handsome man.

the singer who sang pen-pineapple-pen also looks similar i think...cant remember!

Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 19, 2019 1:58 PM | Report Abuse

that is Calvintaneng photo

========
19/11/2019 7:58 PM
probability I think those accumulated reasonable capital from local stocks...should venture overseas slowly with small capital first...to feel the depth of the water...at least for 6 months...before going heavy...

Icon, soojinhou...kindly post your recommendations in i3...
easy for part-time man like me to monitor in a single location.
19/11/2019 8:01 PM
JN88 Malaysia stock:
1. Boss earn money for continuously few years positive net profit and thinking to listed in KLSE.
2. After listed in Bursa, Boss start how to draw the graft, earn huge profit, high enumeration and so etc.
3. This cycle can repeat at least 10-20 years.
4.No value, less dividend, less attractive.

US stock:
1. Boss start a business, the whole mindset is thinking about creating value.(this value mean value and impact to society but not the money value)
2. After company get profit, boss absorb more talent, R & D creating more value.
3. The counter in US basically have 2 important characteristics (cpital growth and dividend growth)
4. The rise in stock price is not cycle or goreng , but the value they sell their service to entire world.
20/11/2019 10:51 AM
JN88 IN Malaysia: Many good company creating value...but wrong marketing in whole world and less creativity...

Eg. Topglov, Kossan, Airasia, Penta....Only Glove company in Malaysia creating value. But the power is too low...For Airasia, due to political issue.....

The should learn, AIA, ALlianz, GE how they penetrated into other country even their own country have their own firm.
20/11/2019 10:55 AM
stncws kyy should go...he will win 1b....instead win 100m here
20/11/2019 11:02 AM
ongth60 you can trade with etrade. just open a trading account outside...just be aware that trading involve the risk of "currency exchange" on top of the stock performance.
20/11/2019 1:07 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Nestle up RM 1.80

RM 28.5 million worth of shares traded so far today.
20/11/2019 4:01 PM
Darius Tanz Any recommendation on a good, low cost broker to invest in foreign equity? I trade options with saxotrader and tastyworks. Both aren't so great for long term investing because of the maintenance costs. There is saxo investor which looks great but it's not available in Malaysia. TD ameritrade seems reasonable, I'm in the process of opening an account with them. Anyone uses TD? Or hv other suggestions.

I use maybank to invest in bursa. I hv a foreign trading account but it seems too much of a hassle and even my remiser doesn't suggest I use it.
20/11/2019 5:35 PM
Choivo Capital I agree with most of your points.

And my comments are similar to ricky's.

Anybody who is looking for a broker, go for interactive brokers.
20/11/2019 7:25 PM
Choivo Capital As soojinhou said,

PE 10 in malaysia is actually not that cheap, when interest rates are 3%, you are getting a premium of only 7% assuming you are perfectly right and the money is reinvested right.
20/11/2019 7:28 PM
wantousek wat broker do u recommend for overseas trade? tdameritrade?
21/11/2019 12:00 AM
leno just a simple reminder : if u cannot make money in your own tuff .. u cannot make in other ppl, if u lose money in your tuff, u will lose even more .. on top of poor info, late news, poor grasp of other country, foreign exchange eating up your money, got scammed, any development u will be the last to received, ... i've known personally a lot of ppl ... real ppl ... who started with bursa, go to FX, then oversea stock, then option, then ... disappear. THEY LOSE and LOSE and LOSE. One thing they wish ... to turn back the time, and never touch anything at all. These are TRUE STORIES. Sekian.
21/11/2019 9:33 AM
Icon8888 leno, my article says that you should invest in good foreign companies that can be held for real long term so as to enjoy compounded growth (I argue that such companies are rare in Malaysia, it is like looking for fish in desert)

I never ask people to punt forex, option, or speculative trade at foreign market

for those kind of activities, do it in Malaysia, if you want, so as to enjoy home advantage

I thought my article makes it very clear ?
21/11/2019 9:54 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>

Posted by leno > Nov 21, 2019 9:33 AM | Report Abuse

just a simple reminder : if u cannot make money in your own tuff .. u cannot make in other ppl, if u lose money in your tuff, u will lose even more .. on top of poor info, late news, poor grasp of other country, foreign exchange eating up your money, got scammed, any development u will be the last to received, ... i've known personally a lot of ppl ... real ppl ... who started with bursa, go to FX, then oversea stock, then option, then ... disappear. THEY LOSE and LOSE and LOSE. One thing they wish ... to turn back the time, and never touch anything at all. These are TRUE STORIES. Sekian.

>>>>>



I have to agree with Leno totally.

You will know the local companies a lot better than the foreign ones.

As long as these companies are "WITHIN YOUR CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE", you will do alright.
21/11/2019 11:18 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>


Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 21, 2019 9:54 AM | Report Abuse

leno, my article says that you should invest in good foreign companies that can be held for real long term so as to enjoy compounded growth (I argue that such companies are rare in Malaysia, it is like looking for fish in desert)

I never ask people to punt forex, option, or speculative trade at foreign market

for those kind of activities, do it in Malaysia, if you want, so as to enjoy home advantage

I thought my article makes it very clear ?

>>>


This post reveals a lot of the person and his investing. Rather mixed up thinking.



Let me just share a very simple statement of Buffett and the offered the reason why this statement is so powerful and rewarding, for those who understands it.

"It is better to buy and own a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Avoid a gruesome company at any price."

A wonderful company (a great company) grows its intrinsic value over a long time. You are buying into its earning power long term. Long term investing into these compounders offer a BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY.

MARGIN OF SAFETY is the 3 most important words of the book Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. It is this BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY that has reduced by risks in long term investing and at the same time, rewarded my investing over the long term.
21/11/2019 11:27 AM
stockmanmy I have nothing to add
TSMC also doing well. I have reserved 10% for TSMC, still got 90% to trade/ speculate in Malaysia.
21/11/2019 12:12 PM
untong I like Icon8888 open minded and humble, most importantly willing to share :)

I dont know about moat but i do know those companies like Airbus/Boeing, Adobe/Microsoft do have global moat. If i open an airline company, where else i buy airplane other than Airbus/Boeing?
If i open a company need softwares to install on the PCs, wherelse i go other than Adobe/Microsoft etc.Same goes to TSMC hehehe, Such companies are really not easy to find in Malaysia market.

I believe in business world if there is no growth,the value will be destructed over time. 逆水行舟,不进则退。 So growth is always no.1 priority then only how much to pay for it :)

Btw what is the difference of TSMC listed in Taiwan and listed in NYSE?
21/11/2019 1:24 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

3. Key Observations



(i) Unlike in Malaysia, multi-baggers are much much more abundant in developed countries. This comes as a shock to most of us. Aren't the US and Europe matured economies ? Why are their companies growing so well ?



Because of two reasons : (a) These companies have moat. As such, they are able to register compounded growth over an extended period of time. (b) Despite from developed countries, these companies are world class and sell their products and services all over the world. There is no limit to their market size.



(ii) Fair enough, PE multiples of these companies are not low. They range from 20 times to 50 times. But this is the characteristics of strong companies. When you invest in good stocks, don't expect to buy cheap. You are supposed to pay a fair price for quality. Since they are growth companies, over the years their earning will catch up, making your original cost of investment looked cheap.

>>>>


I think icon8888 has to reexamine some of his investment premise. He has expressed all the above observations correctly. Then he chopped his own feet, when he opined, "but there are very few of these companies in Bursa."

If you cannot find or cannot love such companies in Bursa, you are also most likely to miss such companies in other stock markets too.

Since the 2000s, I have mentioned many times, there are only about 20 or so stocks in Bursa which you can hold long term because of their durable competitive advantages or economic moats. We have multi-baggers in Bursa too, just than icon8888's investing plans do not avail him to invest or own them, thus, missing these altogether.
21/11/2019 3:28 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

(a) There are two ways you can invest in the stock market.



The first way is Value Investing. You buy stocks that are undervalued, wait for them to be re-rated within one to two years (sometime it takes shorter or longer than that), then you sell them and switch to other undervalued stocks, when the opportunity arise.



The second way is Growth Investing. You buy stocks that have moat. You hold on to them for ten to twenty years, or even longer. Due to earning growth, the stock price will rise conitnuously and deliver you few hundred to few thousands percent return.

>>>>



I do both of these too. However, the major portion of my portfolio are into winners in growth stocks (slow growers, stalwarts and fast growers). Turnarounds, cyclicals and asset plays are sometimes in my portfolio. For example: Hai-O when it turned around in early 2005, Guan Chong in the last cyclical upturn, KAF for its undervalued land asset in KLCC area, etc.

But for long term growth in value of your portfolio, stay with great companies that can continue to grow, even if slowly.
21/11/2019 3:35 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>

(b) I practise both Value Investing and Growth Investing.



For Value Investing, I stick to Bursa Malaysia.



For Growth Investing, I will park my money with great stocks in developed economies such as US, Europe, Japan, etc. Why not Malaysia ? Because based on my observations, very few Malaysian companies have moat. The chance of picking wrong stocks is much higher compared to those in developed countries. The last thing I want is to hold on to a stock for 10 years only to find out that I was wrong, and the stock stagnated and did not generate the return I aim for.



(c) For my foreign portfolio, I will not put my money in developing economies (Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc). Companies in these economies are likely similar to Malaysia. It is likely that not many will have real moat, and very few will eventually become multi baggers. For Value Investing involving switching from one stock to another every one to two years (not due to lack of patience, but due to cyclicality), I would rather play at my homeground, Malaysia whereby I will have the advantage of familiarity.

>>>



As for icon's above thinking, I have to agree with Leno's comments.

If you are not able to find great stocks in Bursa, you are also unlikely to love these stocks that are in other stock markets. Your thema of investing prevents you from liking them, thus, you are more likely to dislike them than to like them, given your reasoning.

Just look at calvin, he continues to come out with promotions of the most gruesome stocks. He is what he is and we should not be surprised by his liking of these stocks. He will never be able to appreciate the great stocks that I like.

Also, I must say icon's comments on the differences in our market and foreign markets are not rational. He should examine himself, his investing philosophy and method. After all, the greatest risk in investing is ONESELF.
21/11/2019 3:40 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) FRIDAY, 1 AUGUST 2008
Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)
Summary of Investment Policies

A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)

B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price.

C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are open to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.

D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .
(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.


_______________


For DEFENSIVE INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B
(Portfolio A: Cash, FDs, Bonds Portfolio B: Mutual funds, Blue chips)

For ENTERPRISING INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B & C
(Portfolio C: Buy in Low Market, Buy Growth stocks at fair value, Buy value stocks i.e. bargains, High grade bonds and preferred shares, Arbitrages)

For SPECULATORS: Portfolio D
(Should set aside a sum for this separate from their money in investing.)

________________
________________


Types of Investors

Graham felt that individual investors fell into two camps : "defensive" investors and "aggressive" or "enterprising" investors.

These two groups are distinguished not by the amount of risk they are willing to take, but rather by the amount of "intelligent effort" they are "willing and able to bring to bear on the task."

Thus, for instance, he included in the defensive investor category professionals (his example--a doctor) unable to devote much time to the process and young investors (his example--a sharp young executive interested in finance) who are as-yet unfamiliar and inexperienced with investing.

Graham felt that the defensive investor should confine his holdings to the shares of important companies with a long record of profitable operations and that are in strong financial condition. By "important," he meant one of substantial size and with a leading position in the industry, ranking among the first quarter or first third in size within its industry group.

Aggressive investors, Graham felt, could expand their universe substantially, but purchases should be attractively priced as established by intelligent analysis. He also suggested that aggressive investors avoid new issues.



http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/08/investment-policies-based-on-benjamin.html
This was the first article posted on my blog.
21/11/2019 3:45 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Your investment goals determine which stocks to include in your portfolio


The investment goals you have established are another important ingredient in determining which stocks to include in your portfolio.

If your investment goals are primarily long-term in nature, you should build a stock portfolio that is best able to meet these long-term goals. Choose the stocks of companies that have good long-term growth prospects.

If your main investment goal is to enjoy a stable source of current income, you should own stocks that pay liberal but secure dividends.


Keep in mind that constructing a portfolio of stocks that meets your investment goals does not lessen the need to maintain a diversified portfolio.
22/11/2019 11:01 AM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
22/11/2019 11:06 AM
tracy92 icon, can I have ur view in Kobay? Result looks good. Are u still holding?
22/11/2019 7:15 PM
sniper123 hi icon
wa

just curious, wats ur take on inari after yesterday big selloff???
20/12/2019 10:17 AM

(Icon) Alliance Bank - One Off Provision Affected Previous Quarter Earning. Time To Buy On Weakness

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 10:24 AM


A good stock is one that provides reasonable return with minimal risk.

 

Most of the time in the past few years, Alliance Bank traded above RM4.00 per share. It is now trading at RM2.85.

 

 

In the recent two quarters, it posted a drop in earning. This is especially the case for the quarter ended June 2019, whereby its earning dropped from the customary RM140 mil per quarter to RM77 mil (EPS of 5 sen only). This caused investors to panic and sold down the stock heavily.

 

 

But if you take a closer look, the lower profit was due to RM74.9 mil provisioning for a few big loans, which is one off. The following is extracted from the company's press release :

 

 

Analysts expect earnings to normalise going forward :

 

(Kenanga IB, 30 October 2019)

 

(Hong Leong IB, 9 October 2019)

 

(Public IB, 28 August 2019)

 

With estimated DPS of 16 sen, dividend yield at current price is approximately 5.6%.

 

Alliance Bank is owned and controlled by Singapore's Temasek. First class management, of course.

Labels: ABMB
  3 people like this.
 
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Icon, Alliance is impacted (loan loss provisions) due to their huge exposures to London Biscuits
13/11/2019 11:08 AM
Choivo Capital Accurate.
13/11/2019 5:17 PM
Connie555 Now no more saying people pump and dump? now say people accurate pulak? no say people accumulated a lot then share this post? where u learn ur manners...suddenly so polite. just curious no offence, I am glad that choivo finally learn some manners
14/11/2019 12:12 AM
supersaiyan3 Ngam.
14/11/2019 12:28 AM
ahbah Banks ... buy n keep forever
14/11/2019 8:50 AM
supersaiyan3 Looks like Icon still got some credibility.
14/11/2019 1:25 PM
TECHfullyBREWED Premium analysis
14/11/2019 3:41 PM
supersaiyan3 Yours JAKS is doing well, congratulations!!!!
15/11/2019 9:41 AM
i3lurker Jaks ?
price went up coz company no money forced to sell carparks
malaysians have car park fetish so pumped price up
15/11/2019 5:22 PM
sc Khaw sailang sailang
20/11/2019 11:26 AM
stock_investor Buy on weakness. Still good buy.
06/12/2019 6:37 PM
Sslee Hahahaha i3lurker,
When financial tsunami hit the shore many performance loans with become non-performance loans. One off provision will become many off provisions.
06/12/2019 6:49 PM

(Icon) Sam Engineering - An Overlooked Semicon Play

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 22 Oct 2019, 10:35 AM


1. A Laggard ?

 

Many semiconductor stocks had been re-rated recently. In my opinion, Sam Engineering is one laggard that has been overlooked.

 

 

 

2. Historical Profitability

 

The following is Sam Engineering's recent few quarters' result :

 

Key observations :-

 

(a) Sam Engineering derived a significant amount of profit from semiconductor equipment manufacturing. In FY2019, out of segmental profit of RM97 mil, RM41 mil was attributable to semiconductor equipment manufacturing (42% of total profit). Aerospace division accounted for 58%.

 

(b) Same as many other companies, Sam's semiconductor equipment division did not perform well in March 2019 quarter. If not because of the gain on disposal of properties amounted to RM9.1 mil, segmental profit would be RM6 mil only, almost half of its normal profit of RM12 mil per quarter (please refer to thick line boxes). 

 

(c) However, the worst should be over. In the June 2019 quarter, Sam reported strong core EPS of 14.9 sen. Its semiconductor equipment division's earning normalised to the usual RM10 mil range.

 

 

3. Strong Capex 

 

The group has been spending heavily on capex in recent few years. This augurs well for future growth.

 

 

 

4. Concluding Remarks

 

Over the next few years, the aerospace division will be busy executing its massive RM3 bil contracts.

 

The semiconductor equipment division will benefit from the coming 5G super boom cycle. 

 

At current price of RM8.00, the stock is trading at 13 times PER (based on 15 sen EPS annualised = 60 sen). Based on my exprience, as its EPS grows in the coming years, PE multiple will also expand as market gets excited about its prospects. I think Target Price of RM12.00 within two years is not impossible.

 

Buy at own risk.  

 

https://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/SAMEE-25th-AGM-Presentation-Post-Discussion-As-at-21-August-2019-R.._.pdf

Labels: SAM
  3 people like this.
 
Op3rs Sam have 2 legs, one leg is Aerospace and the other equipment (semiconductor & hdd)

Sales of aerospace parts will be further increased next year (2020) due to the followings

There will be an airshow site in December in dubai on november 17th-21st which in 2017, airbus recorded a total of 510 new air plane orders.

The need to start replacing older model airplanes, with the new fuel-efficiency airplanes throughout 2020-2030.

Increase in demand for hdds due to the adoption of 5g technology worldwide will boost its equipment segment's revenue.

With both legs running at high speed, god knows how fast it can go :)
22/10/2019 11:51 AM
ITreeinvestor B737Max is a time bomb.
22/10/2019 2:17 PM
ITreeinvestor Look at this , 80% from Boeing order book belong to 737. what happen if 737 stop production?

737* 4,703
747 822
767 103
777 441
787 624
22/10/2019 2:27 PM
Icon8888 Read this

https://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/SAMEE-25th-AGM-Presentation-Post-Discussion-As-at-21-August-2019-R.._.pdf

It said 737 max less than 10% revenue
22/10/2019 2:40 PM
Icon8888 Quote “Boeing 737Max contributed <10% of SAMEE FY2019 Revenue”
22/10/2019 2:41 PM
Op3rs Boeing 737Max contributed <10% of SAMEE FY2019 Revenue

this was presented in 2019 presentation slides of SAM.
22/10/2019 2:43 PM
ITreeinvestor Yes, it seem like conflict between their own wording.
How can 4703 Order book contributed less than 10% ?
22/10/2019 3:46 PM
Icon8888 737max is just one of many types of 737
22/10/2019 4:03 PM
ITreeinvestor oh, if that is the case, then Sam is a good bet with recovery of semicon + aero CAGR 4% .
I'm in.
22/10/2019 5:19 PM
22/10/2019 8:02 PM
Choivo Capital Looks nice.
23/10/2019 1:21 PM
Smartinvestor2030 Post removed. Why?
23/10/2019 4:57 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) I totally did not know they did semiconductor business. All this while when i visited their plant in penang I only thought they did fabrication of the hard disk drive pins and metal spring miniature steel fabs.

which part of semiconductors do they produce?
23/10/2019 7:27 PM
paperplane not cheap enough
24/10/2019 5:29 PM
pamaladu If not mistaken, they only make machines for front end and back end semicon manufacturers
29/10/2019 8:18 AM
Icon8888 LOL what do you mean ONLY ?

Front end and back end means cover everything already (they do make HDD components)
29/10/2019 12:31 PM
pamaladu "only" not necessary a bad thing. merely emphasize they are not making semicon end products. they "only" make the equipments which is a niche market but there are a few big players out there. from annual report 2018 onwards, can see SAM gaining momentum, widening scope with existing customer and winning new big customers.
29/10/2019 3:50 PM

(Icon) Why I Am So Keen About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 29 Aug 2019, 12:03 PM


I bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) recently at USD42 per share. It is listed on New York Stock Exchange. Its market cap is USD200 bil while historical PER is approximately 18 times.

 

TSMC is principally involved in chips fabrication (a so called chip foundry). The famous Integrated Circuit (IC) companies that we know nowadays such as AMD, HiSilicon (Huawei), Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia are actually fabless chip companies. They are involved in design and marketing of the chips but they don't have their own manufacturing facilities. They outsource the manufacturing to chip foundries. TSMC is the biggest among them all (48% market share), followed by Samsung (19%), Global Foundries (8%), UMC (7%), SMIC (5%), etc.

 

(Intel is the very rare case of chip company which still has its own chip foundry, but it is behind TSMC in terms of technological leadership and is struggling with its latest most advanced node).

 

 

There used to be many chip foundries. However, as technology advances and Transistors get smaller and smaller, it becomes increasingly expensive to manufacture chips (requires huge capex and investment in R&D). Companies dropped out of the race one by one. The latest to quit is Global Foundries which announced in August 2018 that it will no longer pursue the 7nm manufacturing process so as to preserve resources for the more profitable, less advanced 14nm segment.

 

 

Pursuant thereto, the world is now left with only two chip foundries for advanced nodes (7nm and below) : TSMC and Samsung. Between the two, TSMC is the stronger party. It has the following advantages :-

 

(a) bigger market share (48% vs. Samsung's 19%);

 

(b) independence. Samsung has its own chips business. If you are a chip company (let's say, Apple), Samsung will be able to know how your chips work if you outsource the fabrication to them. TSMC does not have this problem. It is an independent foundry with totally no interest in any IC brand; and

 
(c) more advanced technology. Most of the time, it is ahead of Samsung, with better production yield and technological solutions. The video below dated 22 August 2019 discusses how Samsung is currently facing problems with its 7nm manufacturing process :

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT-cwb_JkTA&app=desktop

 

Why am I so bullish about TSMC ? Because it is expected to do well in the immediate term (as soon as coming quarter) as well as the medium and longer term.

 

Short Term Positives

 

TSMC's latest most advanced technology : 7nm manufacturing process is very well received by the market. Many chip companies rush to place orders with them. Having the latest fabrication process is no longer a luxury for chip companies, it is a necessity for market leadership.

 

A case in point is AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). For many years, AMD has been lagging behind Intel. However, since outsourcing manufacturing to TSMC in 2018 using the 7nm process, AMD's chips has overtaken Intel in terms of pricing and performance. Its share price has risen by more than 200% since 2018. Intel, on the other hand, is facing stagnation.

 

Please refer to charts below.

 

 

 

It is no more an expectation, the strong demand for 7nm chips is being reflected in TSMC's latest sales figures. Please refer to article below.

 

TSMC is expected to enjoy substantial revenue growth starting August with the momentum to continue through the last quarter of 2019, according to market watchers, who expect the pure-play foundry to post record-high sales for the fourth quarter.

TSMC has disclosed July revenues slipped 1.3% sequentially to NT$84.76 billion (US$2.7 billion).

TSMC's monthly revenues are set to top NT$100 billion in August and September, said the watchers, adding that revenues for the fourth quarter are expected to grow more robustly. Strong demand for 7nm chips will be driving the revenue growth.

 
 
Pursuant to the above, we can expect TSMC earnings to grow by leaps and bounds in coming quarters.
 
 
Medium to Longer Terms
 
 
While busy churning out 7nm products, TSMC is already working on its 5nm and 3nm manufacturing processes. It targets to roll out 5nm by first half of 2020 (next year !!!) and 3nm by 2022. With all these exciting developments in the pipeline, it is no exaggeration to say that TSMC is likely to maintain leadership positions for many years to come.
 
 
Please refer article below to feel the momentum and buliishness.
 
 
 
Market watchers believe that TSMC is set to enter its new growth phase driven by 5G commercialization. In fact, while describing 2019 as "a slow year" for TSMC earlier this year, company CEO CC Wei expressed his optimism about TSMC's performance in 2020 and 2021 when 5G and other emerging technologies mature. TSMC with its advanced process technology leadership is eyeing huge opportunities arising from transformative applications in the 5G era.

With regards to its 5nm production ramp-up, TSMC said previously it has become "a little bit more aggressive." The foundry is on track to move the node to volume production in the first half of 2020. TSMC regards its 5nm process as a long-lived node, same as its 7nm, 16nm and 28nm processes.

 

 

CONCLUDING REMARKS

 

All this while, I seldom invest in technology companies. It is notoriously difficult to predict how they will perform in the short term due to cyclical nature of the industry, and it is difficult to predict their perfomance in the medium to longer term due to the ever changing technological landscape. It is also difficult to pinpoint the winners. For example : I used to think that Nvidia is a promising company because it is a potential proxy to AI play. However, recently, AMD came up with a gaming chip that perform better than Nvidia. So Nvidia share price has collapsed by closed to 50%. You simply don't know where the bullets are going to come from.

 

However, TSMC doesn't have this problem. By virtue of its status as an independent chip foundry, it has exposure to EVERY sector and players.  It doesn't matter whether AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom or Apple is the winner, they all source their chips from TSMC (with Samsung the pretender lurking far behind).  

 

On top of that, there are signs that demand for 5G is picking up faster than many people have expected (no small part due to TSMC's advanced manufacturing tehcnology). The proliferation of this new technology will generate demand for high end chips for various types of applications, from smart phones to cloud computing to AI to high performance computing to autonomous driving, etc. As mentioned in my earlier article dated 20 August 2019, I believe we are on the verge of a supercycle for semiconductors that can last for many, many years. 

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/220402.jsp

 

With such favorable short, medium and long term prospects, I decided to bet my money on TSMC.

 

I am not greedy. Targeting a 50% return within 3 years.

  Ricky Kiat likes this.
 
rikki https://www.reuters.com/article/us-globalfoundries-tsmc-lawsuit/globalfoundries-seeks-to-ban-u-s-import-of-tsmc-clients-products-idUSKCN1VH0E9
29/08/2019 12:20 PM
Icon8888 http://m.focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201908280011.aspx
29/08/2019 12:26 PM
Icon8888 https://www.electronicdesign.com/embedded-revolution/tsmc-calls-patent-claims-made-globalfoundries-baseless
29/08/2019 12:28 PM
ongkkh Icon, may i know you use platform to buy US stock?
29/08/2019 9:34 PM
qqq3 every thing written is in line with what I know......
29/08/2019 9:55 PM
probability I am not investing abroad, but thanks to Icon for such effort in presenting his discoveries here. Thanks..
29/08/2019 9:57 PM
Icon8888 Ongkkh Just ask your broker. He will advise you

Not difficult

Similar to buying by using trading accounts
29/08/2019 9:59 PM
qqq3 Americans don't know how to do manufacturing anymore. They only do bulls****, marketing and financial engineering..........
29/08/2019 10:05 PM
PunTatBerSiul Well it takes a con artist to identify another conman.
29/08/2019 10:08 PM
qqq3 it takes some knowledge
29/08/2019 10:57 PM
ongkkh Hello Icon, just want to know you are using local or oversea trading account? By the way, congrat your Armada!
30/08/2019 2:50 PM
77huat77 TSMC is like monopoly this business ady Samsung cannot fight with him https://youtu.be/wT-cwb_JkTA
30/08/2019 4:40 PM
Icon8888 ongkkh local broker
31/08/2019 6:16 AM
ongkkh Thanks I will bet on it!!
31/08/2019 7:55 AM
Icon8888 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM?p=TSM&.tsrc=fin-srch
01/10/2019 9:39 PM
Robinson lol. now only say good? frontkn already 1.8
01/10/2019 10:04 PM
newbie2201 eh .....robinson at here say different ...at fronktn blog say water fish ...funny guy
17/10/2019 11:43 AM
pampers TSMC third-quarter profit rises 13.5%, beats market forecasts
17/10/2019 2:15 PM
Icon8888 TSMC to see profits surge in 2020-21

Monica Chen, Hsinchu; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES Monday 21 October 2019 0 Toggle Dropdown
TSMC is expected to enjoy significant profit increases in 2020 and 2021, after posting its first annual decrease in eight years this year, according to industry observers.

The commercialization of 5G networks is set to trigger a new wave of prosperity in the global semiconductor industry, and TSMC as the world's top pure-play foundry is set to enter a new chapter of company development. With its advanced-node process offerings, TSMC is expected to see chip orders boost substantially its total wafer revenues next year, the observers indicated.

TSMC has started seeing orders demanding advanced EUV-based process technology emerge since the second half of 2019, the observers said. A rebound in revenues during the latter half of this year will be able to offset weakness during the former half of the year, when the pure-play foundry is set to post another year of record-high revenues, the observers noted.

Nevertheless, TSMC's poor profit results in the first half of 2019 will undermine its profitability for all of the year. The foundry house is likely to report a decline in net profits this year, the observers said.

TSMC managed to post net profit growth for the seventh consecutive year in 2018, when the foundry generated a record-high NT$351.13 billion (US$11.36 billion) in net profit or NT$13.23 a share.

TSMC will see its net profit return to a growth track in 2020, said the observers, adding that the growth momentum will carry on in 2021 when chip demand for a diverse range of 5G device applications is set to boom. It is also highly likely that TSMC will be able to generate record-high net profits in 2020 and 2021, the observers indicated.

TSMC at its investors meeting last week suggested strong years ahead for the pure-play foundry, thanks to the arrival of 5G. The company has also stepped up its technology advancements, with plans to move a newer 5nm EUV node to commercial production in the first half of 2020.

Apple, Qualcomm, Huawei's HiSilicon and MediaTek are reportedly among TSMC's major customers adopting the foundry's EUV processes.

5G commercialization triggers new wave of prosperity in chipmaking industry
5G commercialization triggers new wave of prosperity in chipmaking industry
Photo: Digitimes file photo
22/10/2019 7:25 AM
qqq3 IMO the best share in the world.........otherwise, would not have bought a foreign share................
22/10/2019 8:19 AM
qqq3 investing is buying a share with enough transparencies, size, track record, assurance, reliable logical deductions to participate in its growth for several years ..............this one fits all the above....


without all the above, it is speculations/ trading..........



and this a great contrarian idea as earnings making a sharp U turn............
22/10/2019 8:28 AM
limcs tsmc already usd52
12/11/2019 2:59 PM

(Icon) 5G Arrives Earlier Than Expected, Start Paying Attention To Technology Stocks

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 20 Aug 2019, 11:20 AM


1. 5G At Our Doorstep

 

The semiconductor industry is famous for its boom bust cycles. The latest down cycle started around January 2018, about one and a half year ago, But recently, there are indications that the worst is behind us and the industry is entering a new boom cycle. 

 

The main growth driver is 5G. As early as few months ago, 5G was still a vague concept. But if you have been following developments in the semiconductor industry, you will notice that 5G is fast becoming a reality. Hardware producers such as Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia are busy getting base stations ready for mobile operators while smart phone makers such as Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Samsung are placing orders for new chips for their upcoming 5G phones.

 

 

2. A Supercycle, Bigger Than Anything We Have Ever Seen Before   

 

Who are the beneficiaries ? To answer this question, we need to look at what 5G can do. 

 

First of all, 5G is fast. This means that 5G base stations and smart phones will have to make use of the most advanced chips in town. This will benefit makers of modem and processors such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Xilinx, etc. 

 

Secondly, 5G need huge memory. Due to its high speed, 5G users can do many things that 4G cannot do. For example, Augmented Reality, highly sophisticated Games, etc. As such, 5G phones will have substantially higher memory storage than those of 4G. For example, Samsung's recent 5G phone will have 12GB memory. This will benefit producers of Solid State Memory. Micron is one good example.

 

With its huge bandwidth and capacity, 5G will also enable Internet of Things. Millions and billions of appliances and gadgets used in our daily life such as air cond, lighting, security devices, medical devices, pumps, compressors, engines, machines, etc will in the future be linked to data centres via internet, creating a smart society whereby real time information are continuosly transmitted, monitored and processed so as to optimise performance. This will benefit makers of sensors and passive components.

 

This will in turn create the need for servers to process all the information. This will benefit server makers and Hard Disc Drives manufacturers.    

 

On top of that, the advent of articifical intelligence and autonomous driving (enabled by 5G) will also create huge demand for semiconductors. 

 

In view of the foregoing, I believe that we are entering a super boom cycle for semiconductors that can last for many, many years. In the coming next one or two quarters, technology companies such as Inari, MPI and Unisem might be releasing weak results due to lag effect. But don't write them off. Keep an open mind and look for opportunities. We could be entering a golden era for technology stocks. 

  9 people like this.
 
qqq3 Trump's technology war means TSMC is the best share in the world......................
20/08/2019 6:04 PM
Up_down TSMC is giant blue chip so we can't punt growth stock like what we do in KLSE.

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 20, 2019 5:49 PM | Report Abuse

TSMC July sale 700 bil TWD per month

But because of 5G, sales in October November and December will be 1 bil TWD per month

The growth is already here
20/08/2019 6:08 PM
Icon8888 It is a blue chip that is about to grow like a 16 years old
20/08/2019 8:11 PM
supersaiyan3 Good one. There hasn't been a great article like this one for a long time.
20/08/2019 8:22 PM
Icon8888 Memory firms expect explosive growth from 5G starting 2020
Siu Han, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES Tuesday 13 August 2019 0 Toggle Dropdown
Despite lackluster memory demand likely to persist till the end of 2019, the memory industry is expected to see a brighter prospect starting 2020 when 5G services kick off commercial runs driving the popularity of 5G terminal devices that will in turn generate strong growth for memory products, according to industry sources.

The sources said that the 5G commercialization will stimulate upgrades of datacenter servers, and the resultant strong demand for high-capacity server memory will come first to bail the memory industry out when operators move to accelerate establishment and expansion of datacenters.

The sources said the Tokyo Olympics 2020 and the commercialization of 5G services will trigger a positive cycle of investment expansion, stimulating buying sentiment at the consumer end and prompting telecom operators and web service firms to increase their investments in datacenters by 3-4 folds to support the use of 5G mobile devices.

Sumit Sadana, executive vice president and chief business officer at US-based Micron Technology, said that his company will zero in on business opportunities from the ever-growing 5G, AI, IoT and autonomous driving applications, which will create new business models and spur upgrades in memory and storage solutions.

For mobile devices to fast transmit data on 5G bandwidths, high-performance DRAM and NAND flash products will be badly needed along with a new wave of replacement demand for 5G smartphones. In this regard, Micron estimates smartphone storage capacity will sharply expand from 512GB in 2019 to 1TB by 2021 when data transmission speed hits 20Gbps.

Taiwan memory firms revving up deployments

To cash in on immense 5G-driven business opportunities, Taiwan's memory supply chain is also aggressively proceeding with relevant deployments.

Nanya Technology president Pei-Ing Lee said that 5G commercialization will bring two major impacts on the memory market. First is that mobile devices will require bigger memory capacity support. Some flagship smartphones launched so far in 2019 come with 12GB memory, and some midrange models with 6-8GB. Second is that demand for network devices including routers, servers and cloud computing solutions will grow sharply. Accordingly, Nanya started small-volume server memory shipments in the first half of 2019 and will ramp up shipments in the fourth quarter, expecting the shipment ratio for such memory to reach 10% in 2020.

Macronix is eyeing the first wave of 5G opportunities from femtocells, which will grow exponentially in number, and it is cooperating with vendors of network equipment, APs, routers, and Internet of Vehicles (IoV) equipment to jointly tap the opportunities. Macronix is optimistic about strong demand for high-capacity NOR memory products, bolstered by a spate of new applications created by V2X (vehicles to everything).

Meanwhile, Winbond has recently released its 2Gb NAND+2Gb LPDDR4x MCP (multi-chips package) modules to support the operation of high-speed 5G terminal devices,

Innodisk chairman Randy Chien said his company expects to have as many as 300 AIoT clients by the end of 2019, up from less than 100 in 2018, ready to embrace drastic business expansion after 5G commercialization kicks off in 2020.

Adata Technology chairman Simon Chen noted 5G, AIoT and telematics will be the three major growth drivers for the global memory market starting 2020, with demand to explode in 2021-2022 in the largest-ever bull market for memory.
20/08/2019 8:38 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Here is my take on 5G after some further reading.

5G isn’t one technology, but a complex collection of technologies, many of which have not been sorted out by the standards bodies.

In general, however, it’s helpful to oversimplify the explanation about how 5G works. So here goes.

The technologies behind 5G enable the use of very high frequencies. The higher the frequency, the shorter the wavelength. Shorter wavelengths enable faster speeds and lower latency.

But there’s the catch: With shorter wavelengths, the distance between the device and the “tower” has to be much shorter, and the signal has a harder time penetrating through materials such as walls and trees. To get around those obstacles, companies need to deploy vastly more towers than existing technologies do. And companies such as Verizon are using beamforming to direct signals around objects and toward devices.

In order to have reasonable coverage, providers have got to build 5G antennas and towers all over the place, and very close to users. It’s time-consuming and expensive to place these devices everywhere, so the rollout will be slow and uneven.

Because 5G connections suck more power, the chips that power 5G will be designed to favor 4G and kick into 5G mode only when the application demands high bandwidth.

In essence, 5g will take a lot longer ( 10 years+) to really get things together before it becomes something really useful.

We will probably need to wait a lot longer before you can move everything into the cloud and start buying rm50 smartphones ( which only need screen and sound), get smart car access everywhere and all those IoT dreams like Ironman movies.

In essence the jump from 2g to 3g to 4g is quite similar (upgrading of existing cell tower equipment) I know this because I just installed a signal booster in mukah water treatment plant that gave me strong celcom connection locally. It's basically the same device

But the jump from 4g to 5g is on an entirely different scale altogether. It's almost an entirely new technology all together. I'm not sure who will actually be the beneficiary of the new technology or which company will actually be profitable from it long term.
20/08/2019 10:16 PM
miketyu mind to enlighten which semicon is related to 5G besides inari and penta?
20/08/2019 10:25 PM
michaelwong A new version in high speed internet technology around the globe that can benefitted many semiconductor stakeholders . Dufu share price has been performing impressively of late not to mention those under Forbes list unisem, vitrox and etc .
20/08/2019 11:45 PM
qqq3 Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Aug 20, 2019 10:16 PM | Report Abuse


But the jump from 4g to 5g is on an entirely different scale altogether. It's almost an entirely new technology all together. I'm not sure who will actually be the beneficiary of the new technology or which company will actually be profitable from it long term.
======

Philips has a good balanced take on 5G.

Magic will happen in China.....for Malaysia, it be be a long time.
20/08/2019 11:56 PM
qqq3 memories and chips....Trump's technology war with China means every thing is up for grabs.....but TSMC seems poised to benefit the most..........
20/08/2019 11:59 PM
GreenTrade Google: Theta Token

Current price $0.12

I believe that this Digital Asset will rise up to $12 in near future.

Due to 5G / Video Streaming / VR and many more.

The world needs so much more bandwith but is unable to cope with it.

Theta is the solution.

https://web.facebook.com/Greentrades/

Good Luck

For more info, do hit me up on my fb page or number :)
21/08/2019 1:54 AM
UnicornP HDD manufacturer -> Notion Vtec -> Expect mass production in 2020.
21/08/2019 8:59 AM
qqq3 TSMC....did u buy from Taiwan stock exchange or from NYSE depository receipt?
21/08/2019 11:20 AM
qqq3 whether 5G or memory chips, Bursa shares don't work the way u expect..................................
21/08/2019 11:23 AM
qqq3 my own experience...foreign shares not suitable for me.........too much leakage, transaction costs...........
21/08/2019 1:36 PM
Icon8888 I bought using my local broker account

Just choose NYSE instead of Bursa

I click buy and sell just like I buy Vitrox
21/08/2019 1:56 PM
Icon8888 TSMC to see revenues surge in 2020
Monica Chen, Hsinchu; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES Wednesday 21 August 2019 0 Toggle Dropdown
Growing chip demand for 5G- and AIoT-related applications will boost TSMC's revenues for 2020, which are expected to climb over 10% on year, according to industry sources.

TSMC is also set to generate record-high profits next year, driven by growing sales from 7nm and more advanced process technologies, the sources indicated.

TSMC should be able to see its revenue growth continue to outperform the industry average this year, said the sources, adding that the pure-play foundry is expected to post a slight revenue increase in 2019.

Nevertheless, TSMC is unlikely to post another year of record-high profits this year, due to lower-than-expected profits during the first half of the year, the sources continued.

TSMC has started volume production of chips built using N7+, the foundry's first process node with EUV lithography, since the second quarter of 2019. Huawei, Apple, AMD and Qualcomm are reportedly among TSMC's EUV customers.

TSMC's N7+ node is believed to be more competitive than rivals' due to higher and more stable yield rates, the sources believe.

In addition, TSMC has introduced its 6nm process incorporating EUV with risk production scheduled for the first quarter of 2020. Target applications include high-to-mid end mobile, consumer applications, AI, networking, 5G infrastructure, GPU, and high-performance computing.

As for TSMC's 5nm process technology, regarded by the foundry as "a large and long-lasting node," volume production is slated to kick off during the first half of 2020. Apple is reportedly among the first customers adopting the foundry's 5nm EUV process.

Demand for TSMC's EUV processes is set to become robust starting 2020, when 5G commercialization kicks off, according to market watchers. The availability of 5G networks will be driving chip demand for various terminal devices ranging from network equipment, smartphones, IoT, HPC to automotive.

TSMC CFO Lora Ho said at the company's investors meeting in July that the foundry expects to post an around 18% sequential increase in third-quarter revenues, thanks mainly to growing demand coming from the smartphone and IoT sectors. Ho continued that she believes the fourth quarter will be an even stronger quarter for TSMC, as chip demand for smartphones continues to ramp up coupled with a pick-up in demand for HPC applications.
21/08/2019 2:03 PM
Icon8888 You probably do not understand how strong TSMC market position and prospect is, there is why you are not so passionate

I bet quite big. 10% of my portfolio
21/08/2019 2:05 PM
Icon8888 I describe TSMC as Low potential return but high probability of successs

I will be happy with 50% return in three years
21/08/2019 2:07 PM
qqq3 I already read TSMC 7nm chips more advanced than Intel.........and if US cannot sell to Huawei, who they turn to ? TSMC, of course........
21/08/2019 2:22 PM
mcmann Thanks Icon8888 will study TSMC
21/08/2019 2:26 PM
mcmann apart from TSMC what are local company will benefit from this 5G era ?
21/08/2019 2:26 PM
Icon8888 Huawei currently has its own chips

It doesn't need US to sell to it

But it purposely reserve 60% for US companies (consider that as protection fee ?)

If US doesn't want to sell them, they will go to TSMC to produce the remaining 60% using their own chip design
21/08/2019 2:31 PM
qqq3 y Icon8888 > Aug 21, 2019 2:31 PM | Report Abuse

Huawei currently has its own chips
==========

There is a wide range and variety of chips....Takes many years before Huawei is self sufficient............
21/08/2019 2:43 PM
Icon8888 They can live without US chips, but will have to sacrifice some performance

For example, if they can't get Qualcomm latest modem chips , they won't go bust. They can use back their own less efficient chip, but probably need to add some cooling mechanisms

So it still will work, but might be a bit more bulky

That is the way I understand it
21/08/2019 3:00 PM
qqq3 Taipeh stock exchange stock code 2330.........

I have to buy through HK........

NYSE depository receipt, what is the stock code?
21/08/2019 3:02 PM
qqq3 I am a trader.....for traders, Bursa is enough....other exchanges too much leakages, double commissions and forex....as a trader, London biscuit drop to 11 , now 14 , I got too much at 16, dare not average at 11.............


For investors who keeps a couple of years, transaction costs are not relevant.....................
21/08/2019 3:12 PM
qqq3 what about Frontken? Can do research on Frontken........?
21/08/2019 3:13 PM
UnicornP So far 5G hot stocks : OSAT(Inari), ATE(Penta, Vitrox), Semicon back-end(Frontkn), HDD(Dufu, Notion).
21/08/2019 4:08 PM
mcmann thanks unicorn
21/08/2019 8:35 PM
Andre Kua Even though 5G is the next big thing, I dont see there would be drastic action in the next 2 years at the very least.

Unless you are really a geek, you probably have no idea what 5G really is all about except that you know its great in speed. In reality, it is a bit more complex than that. 5G technology is so different than 4G that it poses technological challenges that 4G dont face. The biggest one would be coverage. It operates on a much higher frequency band and as with higher frequency band, the signal dont travel a great distance. Higher frequency also have harder time penetrating materials.

Hence I think for certain countries (I think Malaysia included), you will only get 5G in dense area like city center, universities or government buildings. 5G would benefit since the deployment area is not too big and have huge users to utilize the additional bandwidth gained with 5G. Whereas for the rest, we will most probably be stuck with 4G for 2-3 more years until they made a huge step forward to increase the range of the tower as well as reducing the cost of the equipment even further. As for now, I think only certain countries will be benefiting from 5G roll out.
22/08/2019 8:09 AM
UnicornP But all the semicon bosses very upbeat of the 5G business prospect wor. Who are we to oppose? If you scared you wait and see the next quarter earnings only decide lo. They say 2019 second half business will rebound strongly.
22/08/2019 10:48 AM
laychee So far no one talks about the companies that preparing to make money from this big pie.

Tun M visit to China is making 5G a viable upgrade.

But Malaysians will be using it to download movies instead of performing surgical operation during vacation far away from hospital.
22/08/2019 11:09 AM
Andre Kua South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China (& HK) probably the first few to adopt it since tech is home grown and easy approvals from government.

As for others, I would say wait and see. Telecommunication industry is heavy reliant on frequency band bidding and allocation.
22/08/2019 11:20 AM
UnicornP 5G means the need to start making new mobile phones(Apple, Samsung). Making new mobile phones means the need to make new chips(TSMC,Micron) and test it(Inari,MPI). Making new chips means the need to make machines(Vitrox, Penta). Make machines means the need to maintain the machine(Frontken). New internet speed means the need to make new computer and thus hard-disk(Dufu) and gaming chips too(Nvidia).
22/08/2019 11:36 AM
UnicornP Then Andre you lucky liao. Inari and Penta's biggest market is Singapore. Vitrox's is China. Frontkn's is Taiwan.
22/08/2019 11:57 AM
UnicornP So far 5G hot stocks : OSAT(Inari), ATE(Penta, Vitrox), Semicon back-end(Frontkn, UWC), HDD(Dufu, Notion). Bonus: Salute
22/08/2019 3:58 PM
RainT if you invest in 5G related counters now,

then be prepare to hold at least until year 2020
22/08/2019 6:15 PM
RainT to make big money is to invest when nobody wants it

not when the price at the peak high

this goes to MPI and INARI
22/08/2019 6:16 PM
qqq3 RainT > Aug 22, 2019 6:16 PM | Report Abuse

to make big money is to invest when nobody wants it
==========

u talking about London biscuit? or armada?
22/08/2019 11:43 PM
UnicornP I reframe his word: to make big money is to invest when everybody panic about some kacang external issues like trade war & inverted yield curve
22/08/2019 11:59 PM
miketyu is MI equipment part of the ecosystem?
23/08/2019 8:46 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Yup. Mi is vitrox best close competitor.
23/08/2019 8:49 AM
miketyu Only that Vitrox has larger scale than MI right?
23/08/2019 9:20 AM
qqq3 https://www.investors.com/news/technology/5g-stocks-5g-wireless-stocks/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo
23/08/2019 10:16 AM
qqq3 every year there will be a handful of stocks that will do well and a lot don't. If you spread your money into 50 stocks, at best a mediocre result, and unlucky can lose 10% or more. Because Bursa alone is so difficult , people like Philips and Icon have to go global to find out- performance.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/220949.jsp
23/08/2019 10:25 AM
Icon8888 I concentrate on TSMC

Average cost USD42
23/08/2019 2:14 PM
sc Khaw OCK as well
05/09/2019 11:58 AM
qqq3 Posted by sc Khaw > Sep 5, 2019 11:58 AM | Report Abuse

OCK as well
=========

actually u are right...as for 5 G......the only ones in Malaysia to benefit are the tower guys.......The telcos are just spending money ......
05/09/2019 12:14 PM
qqq3 .The telcos are just spending money ......and writing off old expenditures....tough for these guys so don't expect much..........
05/09/2019 12:15 PM

(Icon) Eco World International Warrants (Ewint-WA) - Bet Big, When The Odds Are Overwhelmingly In Your Favour

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 10 Jul 2019, 12:54 PM


1. Introduction

 

I first wrote about Eco World International (Ewint) in July 2018.

 

 

That time, share price was trading at 93 sen. It has since drifted downwards to 65 sen. A decline of 30%.

 

(Ewint share price)

 

(Ewint-WA price)

 

Ewint-WA on the other hand, went up from 18 sen to 30 sen plus and subsequently drifted downwards to the existing 11 sen.

 

 

2. Fundamentals Intact

 

Share price has dropped by 30% since my call, do I need to apologise ?

 

Nope. Because the Ewint group's fundamentals remain intact. 

 

Intact is actually an understatement. Since I published my article in July 2018, the group's fundamentals had improved substantially. Most notable is its success in securing the Built to Rent (BtR) deal with Investco, a US Pension Fund, which involves the building of 1,000 BtR homes for Investco for consideration of RM2.12 bil. Based on 70% equity interest, that added approximately RM1.5 bil to its unbilled sales. 

 

As at todate, the group's unbilled sale stands at RM6.6 bil, which will provide earnings visibility over the next two to three years.

 

 

3. Raining Durians Soon (This round it should be real)

 

The reason Ewint share price has dropped so much is because of its inability to deliver consistent earning since my July 2018 article.

 

 

 

As shown above, the group reported strong net profit of RM70 mil in October 2018 quarter. However, it subsequently dropped back to RM24 mil in January 2019 quarter. In April 2019 quarter, it further deteriorated to RM11.6 mil loss.

 

Actually there is nothing disconcerting about its earning volatility. According to UK accounting standard, the group can only recognize profit after completion (instead of progress billing). It just happened that during the past two quarters, they have not been able to deliver many completed units to purchasers.

 

However, things are about to change for the better, very soon.

 

(Source : April 2019 quarterly report)

 

According to the company's comments above, we can expect stronger earnings as soon as the coming quarter.

 

 

4. Ewint-WA, As Resilient As A Cockcroach

 

In the aftermath of a Nuclear War, which specie is likely to survive ? Human being ? Tiger ? Rats ? 

 

No, it is the cockroaches. Cockcroaches can eat almost anything, they can survive in filty environment, they don't need much sunlight, etc. They are one of the most resilient living being in the world. 

 

Based on my experience, if you invest in the warrants of a profitable and healthy PLC, with remaining lifespan of at least two to three years, trading at closed to 10 sen, you will have almost zero chance of losing money. 

 

The time value of money alone is worth at least 10 sen. That is the conclusion investors will draw when they look at an instrument of such nature.

 

Unless you are so bad luck and encounter a market meltdown triggered by lets' say, a financial crisis, such Warrants are almost as indestructible as cockcroaches.

 

Ewint-WA is now trading at 11 sen, it is expiring in April 2022 (3 more years to go) and have exercise price of RM1.45.

 

Fair enough, the conversion premium is a little bit high (140%). However, Ewint is expected to perform well in coming quarters. If that materilises, it is not difficult for Ewint-WA to go back to lets' say, 15 sen or 20 sen (a gain of how many percent ?).

 

Charlie Munger once said :

 

 

Maybe it is time to take a closer look at Ewint-WA.

 

 

Appendix - Eco World International (Ewint) Earning Projections

 

(Source : Kenanga IB analyst report dated 28 June 2019)

(Based on 2.4 bil shares, Ewint's FY2019 and FY2020 net profit of RM180 mil and RM476 mil translates into EPS of 7.5 sen and 19.8 sen respectively)

 

(Source : Maybank IB analyst report dated 28 June 2019)

Labels: EWINT, EWINT-WA
  5 people like this.
 
value88 I believe EWInt's earnings will improve in quarters to come due to the handover of completed units. I also have been eyeing this stock but hesitate to buy due to several concerns i have in mind. I list them down at below, maybe someone can help to advise. My concerns are :

I) UK may face a no-deal Brexit soon, especially after PM position is taking over by potential candidate, Boris Johnson. If that happens, the prospect of property market in UK and prospect of EWInt will be negatively impacted.
Although the coming quarters' earning result is certainly to improve, but market people may think the prospect in extended future would not be good if no-deal Brexit happens, and therefore dampens EWInt's stock price.

ii) EWInt is categorised in "property segment" in Bursa. There are many property companies in Bursa selling at low PE presently due to market has negative sentiment on this segment. Market may also give low PE to EWInt even when it shows higher earnings in coming quarters.

Anyone has any comments on my concerns above, pls share. Thanks.
10/07/2019 9:41 PM
supersaiyan3 I remembered you recommend UNIMECH-WA??

Did it go to ZERO??
10/07/2019 10:50 PM
supersaiyan3 Better buy mother share.
10/07/2019 10:50 PM
12/07/2019 3:44 PM
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17/07/2019 3:22 AM
Choivo Capital As a short to mid term punt, this is interesting.
06/09/2019 11:58 AM
Choivo Capital It went up quite abit some time after he bought, but ended at zero, that is correct.

===
supersaiyan3 I remembered you recommend UNIMECH-WA??

Did it go to ZERO??
10/07/2019 10:50 PM
06/09/2019 11:58 AM
Icon8888 15 sen now

those that have listened to my call and bought at 11 sen would have made 36% by now

just like that (click my fingers)
25/11/2019 9:37 AM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Choivo's Insas warrant going to end up as ZERO.
25/11/2019 9:48 AM
Ricky Kiat dumb dumb hold....(^-^)
25/11/2019 9:57 AM
Icon8888 19 sen
09/12/2019 10:24 AM
Choivo Capital Sold for a profit early this year bro.

===
Sslee Hahahaha,
Choivo's Insas warrant going to end up as ZERO.
09/12/2019 4:05 PM

(Icon) Bumi Armada - A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sun, 30 Jun 2019, 8:44 PM


1. Introduction

 

According to Kenanga Investment Bank, Yinson is expected to experience spike in earning in calender year 2020 (FYE Jan 2021). Its historical and prospective PER is 27 times and 17 times respectively.  

 

(Source : Kenanga IB analyst report for Yinson dated 28 June 2019)

 

On the other hand, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank, Armada is trading at historical and prospective PER of approximately 5 times. (Armada share price 22.5 Sen as at the date of this article).

 

(Source : Hong Leong IB analayst report dated 3 June 2019) 

 

It is true that Yinson has stronger balance sheet (net gearing of 1.1 times) compared to Armada (net gearing of 2.7 times). But as long as Armada can service its debt obligations (recent indications are that they can), maybe we should not let balance sheet weakness completely shut us down.

 

Let's take a closer look.

 

 

2. Historical Profitability

 

The followings are Armada's historical P&L from Q1 of FY2017 until Q1 of FY2019 :

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) annual revenue of approximately RM2.4 bil. Existing order book is approximately RM20 bil (firmed order book). Simple calculation shows that it should last around 8 years, even without additional contracts secured.

 

(b) Annual interest expense of approximately RM500 mil. As borrowings outstanding is approximately RM10 bil, effective interest rate is approximately 5%.

 

(c) In FY2017, the group has property, plants and equipment (PPE) of RM9.5 bil (year average) and depreciation charges of RM576 mil. This translates into PPE lifepan of 16 years. 

 

The group made huge provision for impairment of RM2.4 bil in FY2018. Divided by 16 years, depreciation charges will be lowered by RM150 mil per annum (or RM40 mil per quarter). A quick check shows that this is indeed the case as Q1 of FY2019's depreciation charges has dropped to RM105 mil (from approximately RM150 mil in Q1 of FY2017).

 

In an earlier annual report, management has indicated that impairment is actualy not a bad thing. Apart from lowering depreciation charges (augurs well for future profitability), it also puts the group in better position to bid for contracts at lower price, thereby enhancing its competitivenss (OMS segment). 

 

(d) The group reported net profit (without exceptional items) of RM310 mil and RM316 mil for FY2017 and FY2018 respectively.

 

FY2017 revenue was driven by relatively strong OMS (Offshore Marine Service) contributions. The OMS division's order book is closed to being depleted. Going forward, we should be happy if it can just break even.

 

Following completion of 4 vessels in FY2018, contribution by FPSO and FGS (Floating Gas Storage, referring to the vessel chartered to Malta for Liquified Natural Gas storage for power generation purpose) has picked up, as evidenced by higher FPSO and FGS revenue of RM801 mil in FY2018 compared to RM529 mil in FY2017. In Q1 FY2019, this division's revenue further increase to RM254 mil (if annualised will be RM1 bil revenue). The group's FPSO related revenue is likely to further increase once Kraken's operational issues are fully resolved and achieves final acceptance status (no idea by how much).

 

As shown in table above, the group's earning capacity is approximately RM300 mil per annum (without exceptional items).

 

(e) Not to be overlooked is the group's 3 Joint Ventures in India and Indonesia. These joint ventures made consistent profit contribution of approxmiately RM160 mil per annum to the group in FY2017 and FY2018.

 

The joint ventures' contribution is not limited to equity accounting. A study of the group's cash flow statement shows that they occasionally flew cash up to the goup through a combination of dividend payment and capital repayment. 

 

 

3. Balance Sheets

 

The followings are the group's balance sheet details over past two years :-

 

 

Key observations :-

 

(a) Armada Kraken was deliverd to client, Enquest, by mid 2017. However, it was not able to achieve final acceptance status within the designated timeframe (meaning the vessel has not been able to perform according to full specifications). This caused it to breach the financing covenants, resulted in its long term loan being reclassified into short term loan. 

 

There are some good news though. In March and April 2019, Armada Kraken has managed to improve its performance materially. It is not known when the vessel will achieve final acceptance status, but at least it is heading in positive direction.

 

 

Please note that since breaching the loan covenants in Q4 of FY2017, the company has been paring down Armada Kraken's loans by RM486 mil (from RM2,145 mil to RM1,656 mil). Please refer to table above.

 

(b) On 24 April 2019, the company announced that it has successfully negotiated with lenders to refinance RM2.72 bil short term facilities into a single long term facility with RM1.07 bil and RM1.65 bil maturing in two and five years respectively. This removed a major risk of default.    

 

(c) During the 2 years from Q1 FY2017 until Q2 FY2019, the group pared down net loans by RM1.56 bil (from RM10.39 bil to RM8.83 bil). This is equivalent to RM750 mil repayment per annum. 

 

(d) Following huge impairment of RM2.4 bil in FY2018, property, plant and equipment declined from RM10.3 bil in Q1 FY2017 to RM6.5 bil in Q1 FY2019. Due to huge losses, shareholders funds also declined from RM5.6 bil to RM3.3 bil (a decline of RM2.3 bil). As a result, despite reduction in loans by RM1.56 bil (as mentioned above), net gearing increased from 1.8 times to 2.7 times.

 

 

4. Cash Flow

 

The followings are cashflow details :-

 

 

Key observations :-

 

(a) The group generated net profit of approximately RM300 mil per annum. However, depreciation charges was approximately RM500 mil per annum. Added that back, net operating cashflow (already factoring in interest payment of approximately RM500 mil per annum) would be approximately RM800 mil per annum (ignoring changes in working capital as it tends to even out over years).

 

(b) In FY2017, the group incurred capex of RM1.8 bil. In FY2018, the amount was approximately RM758 mil. Going forward, capex is expected to be a lot lower as all the vessels had been completed and delivered (unless further capex is required to rectify Armada Kraken problems, which I think is unlikely to be big as material improvement has been achieved recently).  

 

(c) In FY2018, the group's 3 joint ventures (2 in India, 1 in Indonesia) flew up a total RM249 mil cash to the group by way of dividend and capital repayment. Going forward, it is difficult to tell whether the same quantum can be maintained. However, for two consecutive years, these joint venture stakes have been contributing net profit of RM160 mil per annum to the group. I think going forward, dividend payment of RM100 mil per annum is a realistic assumption.

 

(d) In FY2017 and FY2018, the group disposed of assets amounted to RM140 mil and RM86 mil respectively. The group will continue to dispose of assets in the future to raise cash.

 

(e) Over the two financial years (2017 and 2018), the group made net repayment of RM1.809 bil. This worked out to be RM900 mil per annum.

 

 

 

5. Concluding Remarks

 

At current market cap of RM1.26 bil, Armada is trading at prospective PER of approximately 5 times. The group has weak balance sheets, but long term charters provide it with strong earning and cash flow visibility.

 

Going forward, I think the most important factor to watch is Armada Kraken. If they managed to resolve all the problems faced by this vessel (indications are that they are heading in right drection), the stock will experience a major re-rating.

 

Labels: ARMADA
  5 people like this.
 
stockraider I forget to tell u that armada already making profit based on latest qtr armada make Rm 62m v yinson make Rm 62m loh. Same same profit mah..!

Posted by stockraider > Jul 7, 2019 10:46 AM | Report Abuse X

Why u need to becareful of Yinson ??
This is bcos the gearing high & not much diffent from armada loh..!!

Yinson borrowing April 2019 as follows:
{In million Rm}
1. Perpetual Bond............1847.
2. Loan & borrowings.........3308.
3.Lease........................13.
4.Loan & Borrowing.............346.
5.Put option liability.........460.
6.Derivative...................61.
Total loan exposure............6039.

Total shareholder fund.........1791.

Total Assets...................8948.

Revenue(qtr)...................209.

Profits (qtr}..................62

Armada borrowings March 2019 as follows:

{In million Rm}
1.Perpetual Bond...............0.
2.Loan & borrowings..........6786.
3.Lease........................29.
4.Loan & Borrowing......... .3194.
5.Put option liability.........414.
6.Derivative...................0.
Total loan exposure...........10423.

Total shareholder fund.........3363.

Total Assets...................15540

Revemue(Qtr)...................491.

Profits {QTR}...................62

From the above u notice Armada is 2x bigger than yinson, thus Yinson Gearing is not much different from armada.


Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > Jul 7, 2019 11:11 AM | Report Abuse

but your armada loss making, yinson is profitable leh
07/07/2019 11:20 AM
Unk Agreed

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 7, 2019 8:09 AM | Report Abuse

And the difference of the loans are the main think that allow ynson to make money and high profit while Armada has to keep taking lousy projects just to do the interest payments for OSV that is sitting at home rusting with no orders (40% utilization rates) and no one willing to buy it.
07/07/2019 11:26 AM
Unk Yinson is currently fully valued la, not overvalued
07/07/2019 11:26 AM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
07/07/2019 11:28 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Stockraider analysis of yinson had so many holes a jumbo jet can fly right through. While raider dream dreaming about his sapura rm3 in 3 years. And his initial analysis of hengyuan worth rm35.

And his initial analysis of dgsb is share price went up from 4.5 cents and jump up to 9 cents in one month.

So how to explain to him his analysis is dead wrong leh? I hope he continue to think this way with his office boy mentality.

His accounting method is so kampung that I feel like want to help him explain part by part like a little boy how to look at balance sheets.

But I have better things to do on a Sunday than waste time with a troll. Let him look at the numbers properly himself.

When stockraider is wrong he will never admit. So wasting time trying correct his analysis. Let him enjoy his own world.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 7, 2019 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

Ask yourself yinson is how much overvalue compare to armada, but its balance sheet are still craps leh ??

When there of reckoning come for Yinson, u cry also no tears loh..!!

YINSON IS ACTUALLY HYFLUX IN THE MAKING LOH...!!
07/07/2019 11:42 AM
stockraider USE UR BRAIN RIGHT LOH....!!

Do not get it wrong....we are not talking of eps loh....we r saying profit the same mah...!!

same in this case in the latest qtr Armada make Rm 62m n yinson make Rm 62m profit mah..!!

THIS HOW U MAKE MONIES LOH..!!
"But..but...Armada mkt cap Rm 1b v Yinson Mkt cap Rm 7b woh....!!"

Big appreciation opportunity for armada loh...!

Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > Jul 7, 2019 11:41 AM | Report Abuse

you lying again where got same, you know how to calculate EPS kah?

EPS = Earnings / Total shares outstanding

if one company has 1 billion shares, make 10 million profit also, EPS is 1 cents , but another company has 10 million shares and 10 million profit , EPS is 100 cents or RM 1.00, where got same?

you think i young and dumb meh? I am young but not dumb lah
07/07/2019 11:47 AM
stockraider IF U R SO PANLAI, TELL US WHAT ARE THE FLAWS MAKE LEH IN THE ANALYSIS ?? INSTEAD OF SIMPLY PERSONALLY ATTACK RAIDER LOH...!!

TALK POSITIVE PLEASE....DO NOT TALK COCK LOH...!!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 7, 2019 11:42 AM | Report Abuse

Stockraider analysis of yinson had so many holes a jumbo jet can fly right through. While raider dream dreaming about his sapura rm3 in 3 years. And his initial analysis of hengyuan worth rm35.

And his initial analysis of dgsb is share price went up from 4.5 cents and jump up to 9 cents in one month.

So how to explain to him his analysis is dead wrong leh? I hope he continue to think this way with his office boy mentality.

His accounting method is so kampung that I feel like want to help him explain part by part like a little boy how to look at balance sheets.

But I have better things to do on a Sunday than waste time with a troll. Let him look at the numbers properly himself.

When stockraider is wrong he will never admit. So wasting time trying correct his analysis. Let him enjoy his own world.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 7, 2019 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

Ask yourself yinson is how much overvalue compare to armada, but its balance sheet are still craps leh ??

When there of reckoning come for Yinson, u cry also no tears loh..!!

YINSON IS ACTUALLY HYFLUX IN THE MAKING LOH...!!
07/07/2019 11:49 AM
DickyMe The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.
07/07/2019 12:16 PM
stockraider Don get principle wrong loh....!!
It is not gamble mah.....!!
It is intelligent investment with big margin of safety with great prospect of big profit from upside rerating Loh...!!

Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.
07/07/2019 11:32 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.


>>>>



Thanks for highlighting.
08/07/2019 8:09 AM
qqq3 Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.
=========

contrarian plays are for the pros.
08/07/2019 8:55 AM
DickyMe One who sells dignity, ethics and moral values in exchange of money are also called "pros".
08/07/2019 9:57 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) A good company deserves a higher valuation. It is possible that you paid a slightly higher price than you wanted to pay for the stock, which lowers your overall rate of return, but time is on your side and your long holding time minimizes the impact of the higher purchase price to your overall return. Also, you will always find the opportunity to add to your position at lower valuations, though not necessarily at lower prices.


Deep value investing investors need to be cautious and aware of this approach's inherent problems. Those companies dropping and appearing in the deep-bargain screener probably deserved to be traded by low valuations. Their stock prices were likely low for the right reasons, and buying these would likely have resulted in steep losses.
08/07/2019 10:55 AM
Icon8888 both my detractors and supporters, we come back again in one year and see whether Armada is more than 22 sen

time will tell who is Warren Buffett who is Moron Buffalo

argue so much no use
08/07/2019 10:59 AM
lurhays i thinks it's not about good or bad company and it's not about buying actually... just a lower price stock is good for trader gain fast profit in more quantities shares in hand to gain in single movement uptrend per day...
08/07/2019 11:07 AM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
08/07/2019 11:17 AM
qqq3 lurhays > Jul 8, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

i thinks it's not about good or bad company and it's not about buying actually... just a lower price stock is good for trader gain fast profit in more quantities shares in hand to gain in single movement uptrend per day...
======

I can support that.
08/07/2019 11:21 AM
Icon8888 without sochais like 3iii and Philips that cannot differentiate good buys from good companies, when will we have chance to make money ?

we should welcome their existence
08/07/2019 11:29 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>


Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 8, 2019 11:29 AM | Report Abuse

without sochais like 3iii and Philips that cannot differentiate good buys from good companies, when will we have chance to make money ?

we should welcome their existence


>>>>



Yes, discuss rationally.

Don't be distressed by our postings.
08/07/2019 12:17 PM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
08/07/2019 12:26 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

I thought u r the real SOHAI....!!


>>>>



Alright, what raider is pointing out is he is the smart ass.

Investing requires the qualities of temperament way more than it requires qualities of intellect.
08/07/2019 1:11 PM
MahjongAuntie Its not being evaluated in such a way. Different price offer of different company cannot determine which one is better off than one another
08/07/2019 2:27 PM
stockraider Posted by Mabel > Jul 8, 2019 12:03 AM | Report Abuse

So it's pretty clear that Armada is oversold and Yinson has done a great job selling perception.

Let's give this train until end of this year and look for the thing that was advice earlier...

For this coming Quarter Report, we should be looking at 4 things:

1) Profit growth
2) Debt reduction with cashflow generated
3) Restructuring of ST debt to LT debt
4) Impairment reversal as highlight by stockraider.

At this rate with 0.3x P/B, I would say very limited downside risks for Princess Armada.

With the latest data we received from stockraider, I'm beginning to believe that it's not going to be gradual climb. It will rocket like KNM..


Hence either you HOLD or accumulate when the trading starts tomorrow.
09/07/2019 11:00 PM
stockraider FOR ARMADA THE FOLLOWING ARE THE GOOD NEWS;

1) Debt has been restructured from ST to LT
2) Kraken is improving
3) Significant OPEX cost reduction
4) Winning the huge ONGC contract
5) Profit is expected to grow next the next few quaters

AT THE MOMENT ARMADA OUTSTANDING ORDER BOOKS RM 21B LOH...!!
09/07/2019 11:02 PM
stockraider Correctloh...opportunity to collect cheap cheap loh...!!

Without epf dumping, u cannot collect cheap cheap mah...!!

Once dumping over, shoot up like rocket mah...!!

Posted by InvestorKING > Jul 9, 2019 7:01 PM | Report Abuse

Be careful EPF will have big dumping soon....
09/07/2019 11:05 PM
stockraider U don understand loh....!!

It depend on whether oil major commit on business expansion and capex loh....!! They decide on their business plan on long term basis about 5 yrs ahead and commit & implement way ahead of oil price movement mah.....!!

But armada order books in Rm 21 billion todate, that means revenue generation no problem for armada loh....!!

Good prospect & strong turnaround play for armada mah...!!

Posted by SuperPanda > Jul 9, 2019 8:17 PM | Report Abuse

pearlwhite has a point on the debt vs profit, you cant the deny some of the facts she brought up

thats why its very important to note the recovery for o&g company like armada is all depends on oil market

if oil market continue in slump anytime from now towards next year, then most o&g not only in msia but across the globe will be dead
09/07/2019 11:06 PM
stockraider ARMADA IS ANOTHER CLASSIC INVESTMENT BASED ON MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH..!!

IN ARMADA CASE THE INVESTMENT ANCHOR ARE ;

1. TUNAROUND PLAY
2. HUGE NTA DISCOUNT
3. STRONG EARNINGS RECOVERY LOH...!!

ARMADA IS MUCH BIGGER COMPANY THAN YINSON AND ITS LATEST QTR EARNINGS IS SAME AS YINSON AT RM 62M...BUT YET YINSON IS VALUE AT RM 7.0 BILLION WHEREAS IS ONLY AT RM 1.2 BILLION.

U CAN ACTUALLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF COMING RERATING OF ARMADA TOO
12/07/2019 10:06 AM
Icon8888 3iii has totally misunderstood the concept of investing

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs

he thought expensive means good
12/07/2019 10:09 AM
stockraider Yes 3iii & Philip chose the Panda style investment loh...!!
We he survive on one single source of food

We chose the Grizzly type of more flexible investment loh...!!
On the other hand we can survive on all kind of food source mah...!!


Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 12, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

3iii has totally misunderstood the concept of investing

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs

he thought expensive means good
12/07/2019 10:14 AM
Icon8888 LOL
12/07/2019 10:15 AM
stockraider At this price it is quite impossible to buy loh...it is like u always chasing your tail or shadow loh...!!

Just pay mkt price & buy armada it has great prospect loh...!!

Posted by InvestorKING > Jul 12, 2019 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

Get ready to buy at 0.22-0.225


Posted by stockraider > Jul 12, 2019 10:27 AM | Report Abuse X

I already says pessimistic tp value Rm 0.50 and more optimistic value tp rm 1.70 mah...!!

If u check back my previous posting here, i already explain the basis why loh....!!

Posted by itch > Jul 12, 2019 10:24 AM | Report Abuse

Agree stockraider, but what is your TP for Armada?
12/07/2019 11:16 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 12, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs
================


not like Roshmah...........if investing is participating in the growth of excellent companies, then it makes sense that the portfolio is made up of excellent companies.................


every thing else is speculations/ trading.

Rosmah do not buy stuffs for investments, Rosmah is just a bitch

put it also this way, assuming there is some truth about efficient market hypothesis, then, for the masses, its makes sense that his portfolio is make up entirely of high quality companies so as to participate in the growth of the country / the companies themselves............


speculations and trading.....leave it to the pros.
12/07/2019 11:27 AM
stockraider Rubbish loh...if u buy stock like Armada and insas with big margin of safety for long term is investment loh...!!

If u buy overvalue stock like Nestle & QL is speculation loh...!!

Notice different ??

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 12, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 12, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs
================


not like Roshmah...........if investing is participating in the growth of excellent companies, then it makes sense that the portfolio is made up of excellent companies.................


every thing else is speculations/ trading.

Rosmah do not buy stuffs for investments, Rosmah is just a bitch

put it also this way, assuming there is some truth about efficient market hypothesis, then, for the masses, its makes sense that his portfolio is make up entirely of high quality companies so as to participate in the growth of the country / the companies themselves............


speculations and trading.....leave it to the pros
12/07/2019 12:37 PM
qqq3 neither armada nor insas qualifies as high grade investment propositions, whether one wants to trade / speculate...............or contrarian play, leave it to the pros.
12/07/2019 12:50 PM
stockraider The new FPSO will result in YINSON borrowing even exceeding Armada on an absolute basis, that means Yinson gearing will be very high loh...!!

That confirm armada mkt cap Rm 1.4b order books Rm 21b a better investment compare with Yinson mkt Cap Rm 7.2b order books Rm 4b loh.......!!

Rightfully armada should be value much higher than Yinson loh...!!

The good news for goreng Yinson will definitely raised & confirmed armada investment profile as a strong margin of safety & turnaround stock loh...!!
13/07/2019 12:33 PM
stockraider Posted by DickyMe > Jul 13, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

(S=QR) Philip "Sapura and Armada share price crash is because debt generation and interest repayments has increased, while their profit margins and revenues has dropped tremendously. ***With looming maturity of borrowings to be repaid in the very near future***, and no one willing to buy their bonds, it extend loans, their only option is to do rights issue, warrant or cash call. "

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/7293.jsp



Posted by stockraider > Jul 13, 2019 12:42 PM | Report Abuse X

It is true or not ??

If it is true then what about Yinson with gearing even higher than armada and with order books even lower than armada leh ??

REMEMBER SHARE PRICE IS WHAT U PAY, AND VALUE IS WHAT U GET LOH...!!

ALWAYS GO FOR MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jul 13, 2019 12:31 PM | Report Abuse X

The new FPSO will result in YINSON borrowing even exceeding Armada on an absolute basis, that means Yinson gearing will be very high loh...!!

That confirm armada mkt cap Rm 1.4b order books Rm 21b a better investment compare with Yinson mkt Cap Rm 7.2b order books Rm 4b loh.......!!

Rightfully armada should be value much higher than Yinson loh...!!

The good news for goreng Yinson will definitely raised & confirmed armada investment profile as a strong margin of safety & turnaround stock loh...!!
13/07/2019 12:46 PM
stockraider Thus don be fooled by professional conman loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jul 13, 2019 1:07 PM | Report Abuse X

Remember this investment principle loh...if u borrow from people with a promise to pay 8.25% pa...it should be treated as a borrowing even there is no fixed time of repayment loh...!!

If yinson go bankrupt surely the perpetual sukuk holders will rank as a creditors and not equity holders mah....!!

This is what happen to Spore hyflux when they keep classifying their perpetual bond as equity when legally it is indeed a debt loh....!!

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 11, 2019 12:19 PM | Report Abuse

The reason for the first perpetual sukuk (bond) and why it should be treated as an equty and not debt: most bonds have a redemption coupon and a maturity period. In the case of armada, when the debt on bonds came due and the you have to pay the full maturity period + coupon, liquidity for armada became tight and the share priced crashed as the possibility of default became very high.

With regards to Yinson and why it is very VERY favourable, the perpetual sukuk simply means that there is no maturity period (on the 6.8% return yearly). Depending on how you look at it, as long as Yinson pays the 6.8% in perpetuity they don't need to worry about the debt of the bond. aka PERPETUAL. no maturity date, no call date, they can keep it going for a very long time without entering default. In fact, they can decide to pay of the debt 15 years from now when the long term charter contracts are done with.

In essence, treat it as if your father decided to borrow you money without any agreement, with the assumption that your new business will pay back your father 7.85% every year in bond repayments and he will not chase you for the full repayment of the principal amount + coupon. He is your father after all.

One day you will pay him back everything, but as long as you pay back that coupon rate every year, he will not complain to you mother.

Page 1 2 3 4 5 6
13/07/2019 1:09 PM
stockraider This is the right investment Perspective Of Icon loh....!!

Always Look forward & look at the current & future strong improvement & recovery trend loh...!!

This is how u make big monies loh...!!

Icon is right a real sifu that can capitalised on the strong tuenaround loh...!!


Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 13, 2019 4:40 PM | Report Abuse

Almost every oil and gas counters got caught

Just check out their balance sheets

9 out of 10 are saddled with debts


Icon8888
17450 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 13, 2019 4:42 PM | Report Abuse

You can keep harping on armada's once in century mistakes, or you can come down from your moral high horse and capitalise on the opportunity to buy it cheap

Your money your call
14/07/2019 12:13 AM
stockraider Don be sochai, let face reality mah....!!

Ask yourself honestly Perpetual bond is a debt loan or not mah ?
Yes it is a long term loan and legally it is a debt.
A debt always ranked ahead of equity in the pecking order in terms of repayment loh...!!

Forget about accounting rules, it serve a commercial purpose, as it is trying to encourage hybrid financial products, not understand by simple layman like Philip loh...!!

In fact Yinson Perpetual Bond is a hybyrid junk bond loh...!!
Why leh ?? Yinson bond rate is 7% to 9% pa but your borrowing rates only 3.5% to 6.0% pa loh...!!
Why higher rates leh ?? Bcos people view it as risky loh....!!

So just becareful of Yinson, i see it is like Sapura & Armada 5 to 10 years ago, the share price has hyped up with full of optimism, don get trap loh..!!

Do not listen to conman fund manager & analyst loh, they just want to fatten u for a slaughter eventually loh...!!

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 14, 2019 6:03 AM | Report Abuse

Accounting rules say you are wrong. Understand the business first itself then look to the debt.

If you understand this better you will understand why foreign investors and major institutions have been buying yinson from 4.09 to 7.20 today.


stockraider
11533 posts
Posted by stockraider > Jul 14, 2019 10:48 AM | Report Abuse X

Finally qqq talk some sense here loh....!!

But definitely Armada & sapura is very much better than jaks & knm loh....!!

Yes armada & sape can classify as big margin of safety turnaround big quality stock loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 14, 2019 9:53 AM | Report Abuse

(S=QR) Philip > Jul 14, 2019 6:03 AM | Report Abuse

what they don't touch Armada.
========

they don't touch because they are not supposed to be contrarians.......but contrarians make a lot of money........


qqq3
11971 posts
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 14, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

buy Armada now like buying Jaks at 50 sens...........

and KNM at 15 sen..........
14/07/2019 10:53 AM
stockraider Armada a truly quality company and about same standard as Yinson loh ??

1. It achieved the latest same qtr profit as yinson.
2. It has slightly lesser gearing compare to yinson
3. It has more fpso than yinson
4. Armada revenue is twice of yinson.
5 Armada equity is twice of yinson.

MOST IMPORTANT INVESTMENT PREPOSITION : ARMADA is 7 times cheaper than yinson.
16/07/2019 10:50 AM
Icon8888 Where is this Mr Know All ? Hiding in Kalimantan ?



(HK1997 again) Philip everybody else are stupid

you are the best.

Icon8888 is the wonderful sifu.

Hard to comment here when everything anyone says which is not music to your ears tends to have a sharp retort.

Then again, when someone has put money into the stock and writes an article, the last thing they want to hear is the voice of reason.

It is far easier to surround yourself with nodding heads and smiling voices saying what a brilliant investor you are!

So kudos icon8888, you really are the best at understanding numbers and making assumptions from financial reports. Love reading your articles. I'll just keep quiet and agree with your remarks and articles and skip over the few glaring errors in your article.

Yeah, good article icon8888, make it count. Don't waste all that effort with a small position, make it count!
30/06/2019 9:47 PM
13/09/2019 3:59 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Hihi !
Cant be so sure
Market is bery smart
Sifu more smart

Philip love branded high class stuff only.
On 2nd think high class is safer ?
When disaster come, no one are safe for sure.
13/09/2019 4:05 PM
Icon8888 His problem is that he like to jump into conclusion
13/09/2019 4:06 PM
Icon8888 I am more humble

I know what I know and what I don't know
13/09/2019 4:06 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Yaa, he still young
No harm to be humble
Benefits everyone
13/09/2019 4:08 PM
stockraider Remember the next immediate target is rm 0.40....then the next tp will be rm 0.50 to rm 0.60 loh...!!

The longterm tp of armada is rm 2.00....if it matched with yinson current share price loh...!!
13/09/2019 6:00 PM
stockraider Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int (Section 138 of CA 2016)

BUMI ARMADA BERHAD

Particulars of substantial Securities Holder

Name EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD
Address Tingkat 19
Bangunan KWSP
Jalan Raja Laut
Kuala Lumpur
50350Wilayah Persekutuan
Malaysia.
Company No. EPF ACT 1991
Nationality/Country of incorporation Malaysia
Descriptions (Class) Ordinary shares in Bumi Armada Berhad ("BAB Shares")

Details of changes

No Date of change
No of securities
Type of Transaction Nature of Interest
1 10 Sep 2019
6,000,000
Acquired Direct Interest
Name of registered holder Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (RHB INV)
Address of registered holder Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Level 42, Menara Citibank, 165 Jalan Ampang, 50450 Kuala Lumpur.
Description of "Others" Type of Transaction


Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Acquisition
Nature of interest Direct Interest
Direct (units) 326,326,300
Direct (%) 5.553
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Total no of securities after change 326,326,300
Date of notice 11 Sep 2019
Date notice received by Listed Issuer 13 Sep 2019


Remarks :
The registered holders of the 326,326,300 Shares as follows:

1. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident Fund Board - in respect of 247,982,300 BAB Shares

2. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd- Employees Provident FD BD (RHB INV)- in respect of 6,000,000 BAB Shares

3. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (CIMB PRI) - in respect of 47,495,500 BAB Shares

4. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (ARIM) - in respect of 7,000,000 BAB Shares

5. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (ABERDEEN) - in respect of 17,848,500 BAB shares
13/09/2019 6:52 PM
stockraider Armada have the following good news & catalyst and its share price will keep shooting upwards on sustain basis loh...!!

1. Armada equity and contract on hand much bigger than yinson.

2. Armada latest to qtr earnings has exceeded yinson. With its last qtr earnings exceeded yinson profit 2x.

3. Armada borrowing has been reduced by 1 billion & coming down further.

4. The new ceo has initiated alot of wealth creation initiative.

5. Most importantly armada share price already breakout from rm 0.30 resistance after very long consolidations and expected the momentum to carry it higher loh...!!

6. EPF has been regularly buying armada recently with large quantities.


Yes u will see better days for Armada, just hang tight loh...!!
14/09/2019 12:07 PM
coolio Well done Icon8888....
Mr Know all hiding in thick haze now
14/09/2019 1:26 PM
Tom Tee 2 years repay back 2.0b debt. latest 2 qtr 487m repay. Strong cashflow generated from operation.
20/10/2019 8:01 PM

(Icon) IQ Group - Is it About To Turn Around ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 17 Jun 2019, 9:55 PM


I bought some IQ recently at about RM1.00.

 

It is a manufacturer of lighting products and sensors (infrared as well as motion). It sells its lighting products together with the sensors, or sensors on stand alone basis to customers.

 

 

In the past, IQ manufactures for customers as Original Equipement Manufacturer or Original Design Manufacturer. (OEM means IQ manufactures according to customers' design. ODM means IQ designs and then manufactures for its customers. In both cases, the customers will sell the products under its own brands)

 

However, recently, IQ starts selling under its own brand - LUMIQS.

 

 

LUMIQS has been quite well received in Japan.

 

 

The stock has come down by a lot. It is now near 5 year all time low.

 

 

But buying at all time low doesn't necessarily mean it is ok. If fundamental is not good, it can potentially slide further.

 

So, is it a good buy or not a good buy at RM1.00 ?

 

First of all, market cap is RM88 mil at current level. Meaning the stock is ok as long as it can make RM8.8 mil profit per annum.

 

 

Can it ?

 

A quick check shows that in the past, it could make as much as RM28 mil per annum during good time.

 

 

In FYE March 2018, the group's profitability was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :-

(a) slow down in sales (reason unknown);

(b) delay in product launches;

(c) forex loss; and

(d) one off expenses to reward employees.

 

 

In FYE March 2019, the group was busy streamlining its operations. It has always had two manufacturing plants : one in Penang (35% of sales), and another in Dongguan, China (65% of sales). During FYE March 2019, it moved all its operation to Dongguan, China.

 

(In the latest development, it further moved its China operation from Dongguan to Wuning city at neighbouring Jiangxi province due to labour shortage)

 

FYE March 2019 was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :

(a) relocation cost;

(b) Penang retrenchment cost; and

(c) RM8 mil delay in shipment in final quarter caused by labour shortage at Dongguan.

 

 

The following is company's comments about its prospects :

 

 (Source : March 2019 quarterly report)

 

Labels: IQGROUP
  3 people like this.
 
probability amazing that they are competent enough to move to China....

shortage of labour in Dongguan? thats something i cant understand
17/06/2019 10:42 PM
probability http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1139971.shtml
17/06/2019 11:33 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) I could answer this question, the reason was actually very simple. Prior to 2018, iq group was going very well as a ODM and OEM for other international companies. Meaning they would make products that were used and branded by Osram, Phillips, L&E, etc. Demand and sales were doing very well.
However it decided to tip it's hand by using the design learned from it's customers and produce it's own product, which directly competed with it's own customers. This was a disastrous move.

Being very unhappy, and as the main players for LED lighting is very small, almost all of them decided to drop purchasing from iqgroup and found other manufacturers instead. Almost overnight the sales and earnings dried up.

Moving forward, iqgroup will no longer be able to do OEM or ODM business as they have burned that bridge. Time Will tell if lumiqs is able to compete in a very competitive marketplace.

>>>>>>>>>

in FYE March 2018, the group's profitability was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :-

(a) slow down in sales (reason unknown);
18/06/2019 3:11 AM
Eastern686 Thank you Philip. Now I know why their profit tank.
18/06/2019 5:22 AM
anticon don't tipu lah, you scumbag conman and cheater Icon8888. Ya lah, very clever you ask people to buy while you sell always. You scumbag conman and cheater Icon8888 had been doing this trick so many time and didn't I caught you before and you subconsciously admit it. Friends, please don't get con and cheater by this tipu conman pariah Icon8888.
Better you scumbag conman and cheater Icon8888, go and jump into the jamban hole and hide there, you tak malu always want to con and cheat, puii puii puii.
18/06/2019 7:32 AM
soojinhou I do have that suspicion that establishing its own brand it at the cost of OEM/ODM business. In any way, even though IQ Group tries to brand Lumiqs as a somewhat Western brand, the Passive Infra Red (PIR) space is very crowded. Just do a search on PIR sensors in Alibaba and you will see a huge array of products from Chinese manufacturers. I'm also irked by the way IQ Group advertises their products claiming that it saves up to 90% electricity without divulging the basis of that claim. LEDs are about 80% more efficient than Halogens so a simple change from Halogen to LED would be able to meet that 90% goal. Having said that, price has come down a lot so the risk-reward is much better than when it was RM3+ few years ago.
18/06/2019 9:01 AM
value88 U guys can refer to Karex when it decided to have its own brand of condom, its sales from other customer decreased, and its marketing expenses for its own brand products increased. Resulting, decreasing earnings..
18/06/2019 12:31 PM
value88 I am not saying IQ will end up like Karex, but the principle is we need to watch out when a company decides to develop its own brand, after being a OEM/ODM manufacturer for some times. It can be a make or break situation.
18/06/2019 12:32 PM
Lukey_Greek Yes, it makes me think of Karex too. Sales keep going down. The issues are structural instead of cyclical.
18/06/2019 1:56 PM
supersaiyan3 Tough market. Now China players are sending its goods through Taiwan and Vietnam. Another relocation to Malaysia is good. Lol
18/06/2019 9:53 PM
Investor 999 中美贸易战使到很多美国大公司的生产线已经陆续从中国迁移至东南亚各国, IQ 却从马国迁移到中国, 你认为她历害吗?
19/06/2019 7:23 PM
Choivo Capital No idea. Would be better if they stuck to OEM.
19/06/2019 9:39 PM
Tom Tee LED lighting is a very competitive red sea market especially in China. We actually able to get the online purchase through Taobao/Lazada full with choices of Led light with very cheap price. But this is the residential lighting. i am not sure IQ group manufacture which type of lighting. IQ group for sure has the ability to manufacture the lighting. But not sure whether do they have ability to explore to the market which is last time is not doing by them.
19/06/2019 10:59 PM
zhen wei & JP Well seems like a good brand luminars?
Have not tried this... Im going to try this.
19/06/2019 11:41 PM
godhand Choivo Capital No idea. Would be better if they stuck to OEM.

also means highly competitive i have always agree with their approach.
05/07/2019 4:32 AM
16/11/2019 9:06 AM
TradeLearner @icon8888 are you still holding IQ shares? I sense it is nearing it's turnaround point, and the current price looks extremely beaten down. With almost non-existent retails holders.

But every quarter, it's the same story. What do you all think?
25/12/2019 2:36 PM

(Icon) Trade War ? What Trade War ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 15 Jun 2019, 8:56 AM


Watch this video.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG-aEwY0R50

 
Trade war ? What trade war ? Before the first shot is fired, America has already lost.
 
America can stop exporting to China, it can stop buying from China ....
 
But it cannot stop doing business IN China.
 
It is a 1.4 bil population market.
 
US GDP per capita is now 6 times that of China, and it is already doing USD343 bil business in China now.
 
When China's GDP per capita one day reach America level (why not ?), this business will balloon to USD2.06 trillion PER ANNUM.
 
Is America saying that it is willing to forego these business opportunities and hand them over to the Europeans and Japanese ?
 
The fact is that America needs China as much as China needs them.
 
Without China, most American businesses will cease to grow over next twenty years.
 
Period.
  5 people like this.
 
Finalburst 'The fact is that America needs China as much as China needs them.'

i couldn't agree more on this.
15/06/2019 9:20 AM
Beary China have time and resilience on its side and will eventually win any trade war.

The only advantage the yankees have over China now is its military.

Do not be surprised if they try to provoke a military war over Taiwan or South China Seas next when they realise this trade war is getting them nowhere.

The yankees know time is running out for them.

It is now or never.

They know they could lose even their military edge over China in a couple more decades.

You know the writing is on the wall when trumpet sounds so desperate and behaves like a big bully.
15/06/2019 9:41 AM
king36 DT is a con man long exposed by David Coy Johnston.
He always manipulates facts and twists them to excite his ignorant audience to glorify himself.
All his dealings are being exposed one by one now and we can see them in American's reporting.
He claims China wants the deal and he always win.
Now we see how desperate he is when Xi refuses yo attend G20.
You can cheat and lie.
But you cannot assume that your audience are dump forever.
China's market is huge and China has overtake USA in many fields.
Nobody can ignore the force that is rising.
15/06/2019 10:49 AM
Shinnzaii huawei close relationship with china...i saw now Apple close relationship with trump...hehe
15/06/2019 11:04 AM
qqq3 the question is can Wall Street still pretend after the no show in coming G20 meeting?
15/06/2019 11:42 AM
laychee For the past few days, DT seems to soften a bit after the poll shows he will 100% lose in the next election. He was ranked #6.

After that, he seems eager to settle the war soon. He even cancelled a dispute complaint with WTO.

Now, trade bodies are forbiddibg DT to raise more tarriffs before 2nd of July.

As long as China is keeping quiet, it will win this war.
15/06/2019 12:22 PM
paulthesotong Negotiate, sure! Fight, anytime!! Bully us, wishful thinking!!!!
15/06/2019 12:27 PM
qqq3 hitting China is very popular with Americans, those low class uneducated voters............as such, the best chance for Trump re election is to continue to fight China.
15/06/2019 12:31 PM
teareader818 Donald Trump is a patriot. He only wants what is good for US , which can be painful for other countries, friends or foes alike. You cannot escape the fact that in his two and the half year tenure, he has done more for the country than any past president. Too bad if you love Hillary or Obama, for they have now been exposed for their traitorous misdeeds.
15/06/2019 12:36 PM
Eastern686 Agree 100% with teareader818.
15/06/2019 12:40 PM
shortinvestor77 Trade war will benefit Malaysia, Vietnam and some Asean Countries. Why not?
15/06/2019 12:42 PM
shortinvestor77 Support DT. Rebalance the world trade deficits. China has been sucking huge blood from US, immorally.
15/06/2019 12:43 PM
shortinvestor77 Yet China still cannot stand alone. It banned Google, Facebook etc in China. It anti Taiwan, snti Japan, suppress Hong Kong . It wants become king of South China sra.
15/06/2019 12:46 PM
15/06/2019 12:46 PM
shortinvestor77 Why so many blinds support China?
15/06/2019 12:47 PM
Alex™ hehe,
china ban google, diam.
US ban huawei, rage
15/06/2019 1:05 PM
Alex™ btw cnbc leftist channel, how can support trump?
15/06/2019 1:06 PM
qqq3 China shared prosperity

Trump shared disaster.
15/06/2019 1:25 PM
chinaman We don't support China nor US. We support free trade for all cari makan. wakaka
15/06/2019 1:37 PM
laychee China central government wants to be world#1. Communism can only survive if the whole are of the same ideology.

Communism will not support open and fair market. Open and fair market can only slow down the wealth collection intention and result.

DT has been doing great for US. DT just US to be good with US slowly giving up the status as world benevolent police like post world war II era.

One is strengthening its communism strength using unfair trades.

The other is giving up its world influence by strengthening its internal structures (rights for white people).

Who is better? No one.
15/06/2019 1:44 PM
qqq3 Ban Huawei, that is America's rights

Kidnap CFO and trying to kill Huawei..........that is war.
15/06/2019 1:54 PM
qqq3 laychee > Jun 15, 2019 1:44 PM | Report Abuse

Who is better? No one.
========

sad that Malaysia got some Trump red necks.
15/06/2019 1:56 PM
qqq3 look at Canada..........

People think Canada is good country yet it kidnaps Huawei girl and refuse to take back rubbish.

goes to show, even Canada is not a good country. They never were.
15/06/2019 1:58 PM
PureBULL ... The BEST n most POWERFUL company globally must be listed publicly.

Yes, the entire world is awaiting for that guy in huawei to announce he's
listing it on hkse soon n later on nyse.

To Maintain World Security For All; u, me n all our children:
How can the tier # 1 company, huawei, is owned by 1 individual or country that will control our world?
Be generous like amore, list lah your co, n let everybody, u n me a chance to prosper in the plc..
n trade WAR will end immediately !!!

Even tier # 2 powerful companies like Fbook, goog etc r listed long ago.

Mkt forces can maintain World Security n PEACE !


b4 we text, ASK this??
To Maintain World Security For All; u, me n specially all our CHILDREN
15/06/2019 1:58 PM
qqq3 Being privately owned gives Huawei flexibility and allows for long range planning. Very useful.
15/06/2019 2:00 PM
teareader818 Trump is a disruptor and the world at large hates him. For one, he has banned lobbyists (aka corruptors)and that alone has put a lot of people in US and in other countries out of work. The MSM hate media have been working overtime to drag him down. Do you wonder why the ratings of CNN have hit bottom?
15/06/2019 2:05 PM
Alex™ hehe, alibaba also cant move much without gomen approval.
15/06/2019 2:08 PM
teareader818 US and China are super powers. We can only talk that's all. About Malaysia, it is different, we have the power to change the country for the better.
15/06/2019 2:19 PM
Icon8888 Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees
15/06/2019 3:31 PM
king36 Icon8888 Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees
15/06/2019 3:31 PM

That's economic socialism - beginning to pick up steam even in USA now.
15/06/2019 3:58 PM
Choivo Capital No.

Boss owns 2% directly, the rest is in an employee fund, where the boss holds the bulk of it.


=====
Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 15, 2019 3:31 PM | Report Abuse

Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees
15/06/2019 4:00 PM
PureBULL ... Amore said; only a person of militarily background will risk own daughter's life n happiness to rule our world.

n try Stay v close to rich n powerful chinese, then u will know their behaviour.
n their feeling for u n if there's love ever for u n your existence in this world !
The problem is simple, the solution is difficult to come by.
the situpeed idiotic pres is doing n risking his own future for your peace n all..
15/06/2019 4:27 PM
qqq3 daughter is taking a PhD in jail.
15/06/2019 5:14 PM
qqq3 Huawei shows Marxism works
15/06/2019 5:47 PM
shortinvestor77 So many naive, communist government is the real big boss behind Huawei, Alibaba etc.
15/06/2019 7:27 PM
mach10 CHINA believes DT can only last one term as the recent poll showed.CHINA will not negotiate with the present US administration and drag on until DT steps down.
15/06/2019 9:31 PM
pjseow Both US and China knows there is no winner in trade war but Trump still want to start the trade war. Why? What is in his mind? Only US democracy will elect such a moronic President. China will never have such third class president .To qualify for such important post, you must have the experience and credentials managing at least a province successfully before being considered as president. Imagine a CEO of a big multinational is elected by all the employees and anyone including production operator can stand for CEO post. An outspoken operator with zero knowledge of managing a country might be elected as CEO if he or she can lobby enough support .The company will go down to the drain。This is exactly what happen to US .Trump is a mad and dangerous president.
15/06/2019 9:39 PM
Alex™ poll also shows hillary will win. CNN (clinton news network) syoik sendiri hehe
15/06/2019 9:51 PM
qqq3 govt is real big boss shows govt works in China
15/06/2019 11:14 PM
SureWin1Woh China may not be trustable as publicly known. But USA is not any better. The white mens are also known for their fakeness.... trying to portrait as the holder of fairness and supporting democracy. They are the main FOX of the world.
It's my dream to see the change of world supreme guardian from the west to Asia. The angmo always bring down the Asian tigers whenever they felt threatened by their rise.
Whatever said, the angmo can stop/kill the Tigers but not the awaken DRAGON.
15/06/2019 11:26 PM
kiers in vietnam war, there was a stereotype "The Quiet American". Everyone knows trumpf policy is bs. Everyone knows that US companies are the main value-added "imports" into US economy. Everyone knows US companies "exports" are not included in economic stats b/c they happen from Ireland cayman islands registered companies/subsidiaries, but they are QUIET about it. Try and understand the Anglo kia-su mind!
16/06/2019 12:52 AM
kiers anglo very slick
16/06/2019 12:55 AM
hooi The Great Wall of China has historical proven the greatness of China.
The US even have a hard time to start the mexican wall.
That’s the difference between this 2 countries on human will.
16/06/2019 10:21 AM
laychee Trade war now becomes football as analysts here are using 'greatness' to judge.

Theorectically, communism will prevail if the leader is strong.

Democracy is weak or chaotic when the two strongest parties attract half of the citizen.

Britain, US, Malaysia, ...are now having the 50-50 support problem.

From logical point of view, China will win.

But DT is using every single loophole of US democracy to win such as signing executive orders...
16/06/2019 10:56 AM
Sami_Value Apa susah sangat, China + Rusia + India + Middle East, sama-sama pakat kasi gang bang US.

There rest of the world should join the gang bang sama US, 1 kali kasi ajar cukup-cukup. We all die but we make sure US got ANNIHILATED.
16/06/2019 11:22 AM
Aristocats Sami_Value>>> Apa susah sangat, China + Rusia + India + Middle East, sama-sama pakat kasi gang bang US.

There rest of the world should join the gang bang sama US, 1 kali kasi ajar cukup-cukup. We all die but we make sure US got ANNIHILATED.
16/06/2019 11:22 AM

========

US has more than 1 thousand nukes.
Be prepared to eat 1 thousand nukes if the China + Russia gang want to ajar US cukup cukup.
16/06/2019 11:50 AM
16/06/2019 11:53 AM
chinaman Just one moron, don't drag whole world into destruction. Sack the moron president. everything back to normal...Since US is democratic nation, cannot sack President??? wakaka
16/06/2019 11:54 AM
Alex™ Hehe, American happy now oh. Billions of dollars to gomen reserve becoz of tariff. Why sack ah trump leh?
16/06/2019 2:19 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) The tariff not paid by gonna government or even come nationals... It's actually paid by local US importers and manufacturers and trading houses who suddenly lose a source of cheap goods.

Expectations and reality very different.
16/06/2019 5:39 PM
rikki https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jimmy-carter-china-war-infrastructure-economy-trade-war-church-1396086
16/06/2019 8:11 PM

(Icon) Howard Mark's Investing Wisdom : Patient Opportunism

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 2 May 2019, 2:16 AM


(a) Patient opportunism—waiting for bargains—is often your best strategy.

(b) You’ll do better if you wait for investments to come to you rather than go chasing after them. Select from the list of things sellers are motivated to sell rather than start with a fixed notion as to what you want to own.

Try to sit on your hands. Don't go out with a “buy list”; rather, wait for the phone to ring.
 
(c) Investors needn’t feel pressured to act. They can pass up lots of opportunities until they see one that’s terrific.
 
There’s no penalty for omitting good investments, the only real penalty is for making losing investments. 
 
Having said so, calibration is important. Set the bar too high and you might remain out of the market for a very long time. Set it too low and you will be fully invested almost immediately; it will be as though you had no standards at all. Experience and versatile thinking are the keys to such calibration.
 
(d) We may look through fifty or seventy investments to find a handful of good ones. If we buy six that work out and miss fifteen that we should have bought, we never view this as a loss.
 
(e) Warren Buffett said there is no need to swing for every pitch. The bat should come off our shoulders when there are opportunities for profit with controlled risk.
 
One way to be selective in this regard is by making every effort to ascertain whether we’re in a low-return environment or a high-return environment.
 
A low return environment is when price is high. The opposite is true for a high return environment. It is not advisable to pursue high return in a low return environment. Because it can only be achieved through increased risk.
 
(f) The market’s not a very accommodating machine; it won’t provide high returns just because you need them.
 
You simply cannot create investment opportunities when they’re not there. The dumbest thing you can do is to insist on perpetuating high returns—and give back your profits in the process. If it’s not there, hoping won’t make it so.
 
(g) Having said so, you can take a long term view. During low return environment, you can invest anyway—ignoring short-run risk and focusing on the long run. This isn’t irrational, especially if you accept the notion that market timing and tactical asset allocation are difficult.
  11 people like this.
 
ongkkh Thanks Icon
02/05/2019 6:40 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Icon

You are damn good in this post.
02/05/2019 8:15 AM
fairman Post removed. Why?
02/05/2019 2:03 PM
fairman Post removed. Why?
02/05/2019 2:08 PM
fairman Post removed. Why?
02/05/2019 2:16 PM
qqq3 this post is written from experience from the heart, not those quote here there.
02/05/2019 4:56 PM
qqq3 low-return environment or a high-return environment.?

how about S= Q r

when u see high r opportunity, u gasak lah.


sizing of trades according to r is one fast way to make it...........


play for real, no longer play for fun.


play for real or play for fun no longer about how smart. it is about character and habit.
02/05/2019 5:11 PM
arv18 Thanks. A nice article.
02/05/2019 5:14 PM
calvintaneng Good one

I reading now

Howard Marks' Mastering The Market Cycle

One of the best brain in it's field
02/05/2019 11:44 PM
michaelwong I appreciate part (b) and many have failed to choose bcos of self impatient to strike as the right at the right stocks to own up . As big time investors you really look different from others with your exceptional views that makes your choice of investments with safety of margin .
03/05/2019 2:07 AM
Choivo Capital Icon writing and thinking seem to be a bit different these days. Quite interesting.

I actually find myself going through his old comments for some ideas.
03/05/2019 1:58 PM
Choivo Capital May i know whats your thinking behind AWC?
03/05/2019 2:01 PM
03/05/2019 2:03 PM
qqq3 esos is worth it, once the IPP goes online.

this ALP young ambitious, right idea how to turn a dying pipes company inherited from father into a blue chip.

set backs from the property and construction side, but the war not over yet.
03/05/2019 2:42 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>

Choivo Capital Icon writing and thinking seem to be a bit different these days. Quite interesting.

I actually find myself going through his old comments for some ideas.
03/05/2019 1:58 PM

>>>



Traumatised by his severe losses in 2018, icon8888 has to modify and refine his investing philosophy and method.
03/05/2019 7:24 PM
03/05/2019 7:24 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>
(g) Having said so, you can take a long term view. During low return environment, you can invest anyway—ignoring short-run risk and focusing on the long run. This isn’t irrational, especially if you accept the notion that market timing and tactical asset allocation are difficult.
>>>>


I was shocked and pleasantly surprised that icon8888 posted the above.

He was very against this approach probably because he could not see how people using this method can make money for the long term.

Perhaps, he has seen the "light'.
03/05/2019 7:26 PM
cheoky Straight to point. What is the stock to buy now sifu
03/05/2019 7:33 PM
qqq3 osted by 3iii > May 3, 2019 7:26 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
(g) Having said so, you can take a long term view. During low return environment, you can invest anyway—ignoring short-run risk and focusing on the long run. This isn’t irrational, especially if you accept the notion that market timing and tactical asset allocation are difficult.
>>>>


that is in case of mistakes....Icon is not a cut loss guy ( normally)
03/05/2019 7:48 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 " wait for the phone to ring "

Learnt from icon8888
03/05/2019 7:55 PM
qqq3 Posted by VenFx > May 3, 2019 7:55 PM | Report Abuse

" wait for the phone to ring "

Learnt from icon8888
=========

share market can lah.....but not in dating.
03/05/2019 8:02 PM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (9) - Potential Reason Behind Jaks-WB's High Conversion Premium

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 5 Apr 2019, 12:40 PM


Currently, Jaks is trading at RM0.84 while Jaks-WB is trading at RM0.62. As Jaks-WB's exercise price is RM0.64, conversion premium will be as follows :

 

Conversion premium = RM(0.62 + 0.64) / RM0.84 = RM1.26 / RM0.84 = 50%

 

The conversion premium in absolute term is RM0.42, being RM1.26 less RM0.84. Is this excessive ? To answer that question, we need to look at percentage.

 

In percentage term, as shown above, the conversion premium is 50%. This is significantly higher than the 25% to 30% we usually see in the market for Warrants. Are holders of Jaks-WB foolish by not taking profit now ?

 

No, they are not. Because things will look very different if Jaks price continues to go up. 

 

For illustration purpose, let's say if Jaks price goes up by RM1.16 from the current RM0.84 to RM2.00 and Jaks-WB moves up in lock step. Jaks-WB will reach RM1.78 (being RM0.62 now + RM1.16), the conversion premium will be as follows :-

 

Conversion premium = RM(1.78 + 0.64) / RM2.00 = RM2.42 / RM2.00 = 21%

 

Can you see how the conversion premium drops as Jaks mother shares go higher ?

 

Lets' say if mother shares go up another RM2.00 to RM4.00, what will happen ?

 

Based on the same assumption that Jaks-WB goes up in lock step, it will reach RM3.78 (from RM1.78).

 

Conversion premium = RM(3.78 + 0.64) / RM4.00 = RM4.42 / RM4.00 = 10%

 

Can you see how the conversion premium has dropped to very minimal level, significantly below the market norm of 25% to 30% ?

 

The figures used above for illustration purpose were based on bold assumption that Jaks can one day touch RM4.00. Can Jaks ever reach there ? Lets' compare with MFCB. Based on 260 MW, MFCB's hydropower project is expected to generate RM200 mil net profit (according to analysts). By extrapolation based on Jaks' effective capacity of 360 MW (being 30% stake), the Vietnam IPP can potentially generate RM276 mil. Lets' say interest expenses maintains at RM28 mil, and mall losses RM12 mil (being 50% of RM24 mil losses), net profit = RM276 mil less RM28 mil less RM12 mil = RM236 mil.

 

Based on 580 mil shares, EPS = 40 sen.

 

Based on 10 times PER, target price of RM4.00 within two to three years time is not unachievable. 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

The conversion premium of Jaks-WB looked very high based on current market price of mother shares. However, in the event that Jaks really one day goes up to RM4.00, the conversion premium will drop to very conservative level. (The same applies to RM3.00, RM2.00, RM1.50 etc, but to varying degree).

 

As such, the promoters (insiders) are not foolish. By allowing Jaks-WB to trade at such hefty premium (without selling down to take profit), they are hinting that there is still plenty of upside for mother shares (and hence Jaks-WB).

 

In this regard, sit tight, don't even move a muscle. Just dumb dumb hold. Jaks-WB could be your ticket to escape from poverty.

 

Have a nice day. 

Labels: JAKS, JAKS-WB
  4 people like this.
 
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 7:29 AM | Report Abuse

Doesn't matter

I don't trust KB, so I don't make their money

Let others make it

I am at peace with myself

No regret

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 7:30 AM | Report Abuse

In stock market , certain money is not for me to make

Day one I started with bursa many many years ago, I already aware of that
07/04/2019 8:27 AM
CharlesT Walau a...what happened to Icon8888 in 3 months time?

Someone hacked his ac?
07/04/2019 8:28 AM
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 6, 2019 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

There are a few persons in i3 I know can never reason with

So I never argue with them

qqq3, CharlesT, ah Seng the distorted mind

So, see you



Fm his Sifu in Jan now becomes the distorted mind in Apr...

Scary
07/04/2019 8:31 AM
CharlesT Could it be Alien killed Icon8888 b get his ID during his vacation in Tasmania?
07/04/2019 8:32 AM
CharlesT I die die dont believe my friend Icon8888 is such an axxhole kacang lupakan kulit after his JAKS went up from 0.40+ to 0.80+ and forgot all those who helped him in the past....

It must be ALIEN's work........
07/04/2019 8:37 AM
CharlesT It must be......
07/04/2019 8:39 AM
CharlesT Icon8888 is not that kind of person...

Till now i am still grateful to his tips of Johotin-wa which save my ass few years ago
07/04/2019 8:41 AM
Icon8888 Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
07/04/2019 8:45 AM
CharlesT I must say i m quite proud of it....
07/04/2019 8:51 AM
CharlesT Very consistent mah
07/04/2019 8:51 AM
CharlesT This is not so consistent loh, after JAKS up from 0.40+ to 0.80+

6 sense becomes 67 sense

Sifu becomes distorted mind

I love Koon becomes I dont make this kind of money
07/04/2019 9:11 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
===========

no regrets. No reason to regret my postings. I have done my best.
07/04/2019 9:51 AM
Icon8888 There is nothing inconsistent.

What happened is I made a bit of money punting curry mee so I thank Uncle Koon and said I love him

But is it not big amount. Enough for KFC only. So it is also true when I said KB money not for me to make. This is especially true during this round Dayang. I stayed out of it

The above are the truth . I don't need to cook up all these explanations to BS you


CharlesT
7410 posts
Posted by CharlesT > Apr 7, 2019 9:11 AM | Report Abuse

I love Koon becomes I dont make this kind of money
07/04/2019 10:03 AM
qqq3 And if I say I have made enough in Dayang to close shop for 2019?
07/04/2019 10:12 AM
Icon8888 Good on you ! There is nothing wrong making it from KB

It is just not my cup of tea
07/04/2019 10:16 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.

Nothing new to learn here. Moving on.

>>>>>

16591 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
07/04/2019 10:20 AM
probability Icon dont need to use KB ma...he can create it if he wants....he he

by the way - please dont Icon.. we need diversity of choices
07/04/2019 10:22 AM
CharlesT KB is easy extra money why not?

But of course we all hv our own ways to make money
07/04/2019 10:27 AM
probability good to have 'hard money' options..easy money comes n goes easily
07/04/2019 10:29 AM
qqq3 Posted by CharlesT > Apr 7, 2019 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

KB is easy extra money why not?
==========

how much depends on how many was bought and sold at what price.....its experience and decisions.

and I am not talking about loose change and extra pocket money., I am talking about meaningful money., serious money.
07/04/2019 10:41 AM
Sslee Dear all,
As I mention before never mess up with CharlesT, unless you are Mr. Philip able to show your sausages.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/192330.jsp

“CharlesT is well knows as mighty and all knowing (brain with muscles). A walking human lie- detector with sharp observation and photographic memory. No one can escape his scrutiny as he can see straight/right through your mind of your pretending, falsehood or noble intention”

Thank you
07/04/2019 10:54 AM
probability ha ha...dont play play with charlest...
07/04/2019 10:56 AM
Nikmon Haha, so many sour grape but still the price getting higher higher...more dispute more entertainment, more transparent. Benefit all the investor.
07/04/2019 11:20 AM
Icon8888 I deleted because I don't want to boast mah. Not because I wanted to hide. Was for your consumption only.

Sigh why people so cynical always think on the negative side


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.
07/04/2019 11:23 AM
Icon8888 This sslee very green. Good intention to promote corporate governance. But the AGM questions he asked caused me to shake my head.

Same applies to his interpretation of facts and events when come to investing

But I scolded myself for being nasty to him. Repeatedly tell myself to be patient


Posted by Sslee > Apr 7, 2019 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
As I mention before never mess up with CharlesT, unless you are Mr. Philip able to show your sausages.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/192330.jsp

“CharlesT is well knows as mighty and all knowing (brain with muscles). A walking human lie- detector with sharp observation and photographic memory. No one can escape his scrutiny as he can see straight/right through your mind of your pretending, falsehood or noble intention”

Thank you
07/04/2019 11:27 AM
qqq3 Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

This sslee very green. Good intention to promote corporate governance. But the AGM questions he asked caused me to shake my head.

Same applies to his interpretation of facts and events when come to investing
==========================

this ss is green, naive and a novice in stock market.

but that is hardly the worse from the ss guy.
07/04/2019 11:31 AM
Nikmon Hope hope whoever accumulate behind the scene, dont stop..haha
07/04/2019 11:35 AM
qqq3 Mahathir says Knowledge, Integrity and grit is enough to build a family, build a strong country, be a natural leader.

Lets just assume SSlee has all 3. It is still not enough in this case. Some thing is still missing. Mahathir is wrong in this case.

so , what is missing?

I scratch and scratch to try to figure out what is missing. I think I have it. The missing part, in the case of SSlee, is called the brain.
07/04/2019 11:41 AM
qqq3 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/200643.jsp
07/04/2019 11:44 AM
Dato Seri John Lu CharlesT sifu have my full of respect
07/04/2019 11:45 AM
qqq3 by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

I electronic engineer specialise in communication system

My final year thesis was State of The Art Speech Recognition System. My final year project was related to Wavelength Division Multiplexing System
==============


with that resume, u should have founded Vitrox and not let 3 USM graduates beat u to it. Too bad, u went off to become a banker.
07/04/2019 11:50 AM
i3Value CharlesT suddenly back in action. What happened to KB? Bursa no action no fun without them in full force
07/04/2019 11:55 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:56 AM | Report Abuse

He lacks the ability to know what he knows what he doesn't know
=============

I can accept that explanation but it leads to the brain too doesn't it?
07/04/2019 11:57 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) ok la let you boast boast a bit, so you can be happy happy. It doesn't make a difference to me. The only thing that matters is how you carry yourself as a human being and how your investment theories work out.

As long as when you post your chun chun buy call, you match up with with your chun chun sell call, then i'll be happy to call you sifu all you want. don't pump and then dump, then I'll keep my comments to myself.

I assume since you say your JAKS is wonderful 10% portfolio investment you will keep it at least until it hits your assumed value of RM3?

Lets see how long that will take.

>>>>>
I electronic engineer specialise in communication system

My final year thesis was State of The Art Speech Recognition System. My final year project was related to Wavelength Division Multiplexing System
07/04/2019 12:22 PM
Icon8888 My attitude is to match your arrogance

Especially "I hope you learn something today"

Otherwise I am very humble

Check out my earlier posts all this while

I treat people nicely

Only assxxxx that walks around like he knows best will receive my special treatment


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

ok la let you boast boast a bit, so you can be happy happy. It doesn't make a difference to me. The only thing that matters is how you carry yourself as a human being and how your investment theories work out.
07/04/2019 12:32 PM
stockraider U talk big & have big egoistic meh ??

Ask yourself 1st how well your QL is doing against insas and mnrb b4 u try to talk big me 1st loh...!!

Do not try to simply rundown...U r not up to mark yet mah...!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

see, another troll in stockraider. He makes it worse when he copy paste entire past comments to fill up his comments to block out other people. what he doesn't realize is he just talks the same nonsense over and over using similar words. I give him 5 minutes before he pollutes this thread with new (repeated everywhere) comments on his 3 yrs 3 months SAPNRG 70 billion RM3 strategy.
07/04/2019 12:35 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 I dont have any personal emotion to anyone here. 
Just the way my bro icon8888 argue or defence very humour. 

Like !
07/04/2019 12:37 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 The other Coach i respect is TYyap ...
He has the quality attitudes as a coach.
Which is a must , so that be able to guide his students at the right path and attitude.
Although i just lucky to be able to wacth his live... after plane sifu recomend Tyyap.
07/04/2019 12:40 PM
stockraider But whatever u say we are still well ahead loh...!!

If make monies is like your logic big cap....then everybody just buy maybank loh....!!

I think u r not so stupid to come up with such a senseless arguement but i m wrong loh...!!

Your ego & arrogance affected u loh....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

your mnrb + insas is less than 15% of QL market cap. and you dont even invest in either of them, as your foaming spamming of SAPE everywhere is showing. trolls like to compare 3 months result and say their investing is working. I'm looking at 2+ years remember as per your challenge? give you a chance, as 10 years results nothing much to say la. we know who winning.

But more importantly, notice who doesn't go around spamming their investment thesis on every page? I'm confident in my investments, unlike office boy trolls.
07/04/2019 12:44 PM
Icon8888 This Sabah assxxxx so egoistic everybody quarrels with him
07/04/2019 12:50 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Here is one good lesson, from an old man who is wise enough to admit his mistakes.

don't boast so much on being an ex-investment banker/ex engineer etc.

Hope Icon8888 learn something new today.

>>>>>

Most investors cannot control their emotion. They are egoistic and greedy. When their shareholdings are going up, they would not sell and like to boast to all their friends that that are so clever to have bought them at much lower prices. The biggest problem that most shareholders have is greed and refuse to sell early to take profit. Profit seems like a dirty word. While the price is going higher, they continue to boast.
07/04/2019 12:51 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) stockraider... now you spam other thread as well? really nice job, i give you 3 minutes to start foaming at the mouth your wonderful SAPNRG investment 70 billion in 3 years and 3 months.
07/04/2019 12:52 PM
highcube It is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price.
07/04/2019 12:58 PM
stockraider Is it troll of different opinion leh ??

Dictator like u cannot stand a losing arguement will use troll to try to shut ur opponent up loh..!!

Raider is not impress loh....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 1:07 PM | Report Abuse

Troll shut up. Your comment makes zero sense whatsover. another troll who likes to argue for the sake of arguing.

Hey. Im still waiting on your spam on why SAPE is a good investment. Why so slow? need to warm up engine is it?

>>>>>
Agree is relative it does not mean u must be 100% agree mah...!!
07/04/2019 1:14 PM
qqq3 Posted by stockraider > Apr 7, 2019 1:14 PM | Report Abuse

Is it troll of different opinion leh ??
==========

not just about differences of opinion. Its the way u conduct yourself, your repetitions and the way u hog up space wherever u visit.
07/04/2019 1:23 PM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 12:32 PM | Report Abuse


"I hope you learn something today"

=================

I actually prefer this statement to the fake Thank Yous from u know who.


"I hope you learn something today" .....and more young people learn about investing as participating in the growth of excellent companies is a good thing. I am sure the PM and Bursa would approve.
07/04/2019 1:28 PM
qqq3 I don't think Icon has problem with anyone until they start giving negative comments on his stocks.....disturbing his counter and money making.....

as OTB too likes to say, u do yours, I do mine.

Sea water not to disturb well water.....happy happy make money, why so busy body?
07/04/2019 1:38 PM
Icon8888 Unilateral ceasefire from me

Everybody peace
07/04/2019 2:06 PM
Icon8888 No more comments

Just quietly enjoy the bull run

I expect it last into 2020
07/04/2019 2:07 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In I tell you all ah, US Treasury Yield Curve inverted liao.. Now it's time to buy into some zero leverage companies lah! Very dangerous times. I a bit scared!
07/04/2019 2:12 PM

(Icon) To Outperform The Market, You Need To Be A Contrarian

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 9 Feb 2019, 5:06 PM


October 28, 2016

 

1. Bill Gurley: “Being ‘right’ doesn’t lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.”

 

Andy Rachleff elaborates on the point made by Gurley: “What most people don’t realize is if you’re right and consensus you don’t make money.” It is a bit strange that most people don’t realize this truth and yet it is common sense: you simply can’t be part of the crowd and at the same time beat the crowd.

 

2. Jeff Bezos: “You just have to remember that contrarians are usually wrong.”

 

This point made by Bezos is the reason why most people follow the crowd. Michael Mauboussin explains this tendency with a simple example:

 

“Being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian is not a good idea. In other words, when the movie theater’s on fire, run out the door, right? Don’t run in the door…. Successful contrarian investing isn’t about going against the grain per se, it’s about exploiting expectations gaps. If this assertion is true, it leads to an obvious question: how do these expectations gaps arise? Or, more basically, how and why are markets inefficient?”

 

Mauboussin explains why some investments get mispriced so badly:

 

“Because if the crowd takes something to an extreme, either on the bullish side or the bearish side, that should show up in your disconnect between fundamentals and expectations. And that is what allows you to make a good investment… Again, the goal is not to be a contrarian just to be a contrarian, but rather to feel comfortable betting against the crowd when the gap between fundamentals and expectations warrants it. This independence is difficult because the widest gap often coincides with the strongest urge to be part of the group. Independence also incorporates the notion of objectivity—an ability to assess the odds without being swayed by outside factors. After all, prices not only inform investors, they also influence investors.”

 

3. Andy Rachleff: “Investment can be explained with a 2×2 matrix. On one axis you can be right or wrong. And on the other axis you can be consensus or non-consensus. Now obviously if you’re wrong you don’t make money. The only way as an investor and as an entrepreneur to make outsized returns is by being right and non-consensus.”

 

It is the existence of a gap between expected value and market price that Mauboussin talked about above which should drive investment decision making. If you have views which reflect the consensus of the crowd you are unlikely to outperform a market since a market by definition reflects the consensus view.  Buffett puts it this way: “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”

 

Charlie Munger is more direct and colorful in his explanation: “For a security to be mispriced, someone else must be a damn fool. It may be bad for world, but not bad for Berkshire.” Sometimes waves of social proof and other dysfunctional heuristics create a significant gap between price and value. This does not happen often in areas within a person’s circle of competence, but it does happen. For some investors, spotting a gap like this happens only once or twice a year and that is just fine with them. In those instances these investors bet big and the rest of the time they do nothing. Some people, like day traders, think they can spot gaps between expected value and market price several times a day and make a profit after fees (this is almost always a triumph of hope over experience).

 

 

4. Howard Marks: “To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.”

 

Being genuinely contrarian means the investor is going to be uncomfortable sometimes. Some people are good at being uncomfortable, and some are not. Peter Lynch said once: “To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do because they have rigid mind-sets.”

 

Successful investing is the search for the mistakes of other people that may create a mispriced asset (Howard Marks). In other words, one person’s mistake about the value of an asset is what can create an opportunity for another investor to outperform the market.

 

This search is best done by people who are curious and hard working. Great investors hustle, have a huge scuttlebutt network and read constantly. They are constantly trying to learn more about more and know that the more that they know, they more they will know that there is even more that they don’t know. If you are not getting more humble over time, you have a flawed system.

 

It is Mr. Market’s irrationality that creates the opportunity for investors. Markets are often wise, but they are not always wise. The best returns accrue to investors who are patient and yet aggressive when they are offered an attractive price for an asset. Seth Klarman says: “Successful investing is the marriage of a calculator and a contrarian streak.” The most effective way to get free of social proof when the time is right is to have done the homework in advance and stay within your circle of competence.

 

5. Jeff Bezos: “Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you’re still going to be wrong nine times out of ten. We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs.” “In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns is why it’s important to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments.”

 

It is magnitude of success and not frequency of success that matters for an investor. Bezos is talking about convexity in investments.  All a founder or venture capitalist can lose is 100% of what they invest in a startup and yet what they can potentially gain is potentially many multiples of that investment.

 

(Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)

  7 people like this.
 
qqq3 The purpose of good fundamental research is to find a share that can give you good multiple year rise.

Other than that....it is just wagging shares....its about caveat emptor and trade at your own risk......and try to benefit from some changing emotions/ sentiments.......
10/02/2019 4:14 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:03 PM | Report Abuse
kc...QL is a multiple bagger.......since you did not / could not benefit from the sustain arise of QL, what can I call you?


There are 900+ stocks listed in Bursa. Why must everyone buy QL? How shallow is the thinking of a 60+ year old "accountant".

No other stocks are multi-baggers? How long have you been in the stock market? If you don't have any multi-bagger, does it mean that there is none?

But seriously, the most important thing for anyone here was not following your sailang and margin in Sendai and Jaks in the last two years.

Those who have not being cheated by you in Jaks and Sendai will most probably doing all right. Like me, I did reasonably okay.
10/02/2019 4:15 PM
qqq3 KC

no QL, never mind...it is just an example.....but....
when was the last time you bought a share that shows some sustained multiple year rise?

or every one of your purchase, sooner or later also collapse just like everyone of OTB purchase?
10/02/2019 4:19 PM
qqq3 Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 04:13 PM | Report Abuse

Honestly, i would give QL value at 3.00! And that's the best price i could come out with!

=======

without Family Mart, it is quite possible that QL is presently traded at $ 3-4 range.....but now, it has all the right image, reputation, story and track record to support at current range....
10/02/2019 4:24 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:19 PM | Report Abuse
KC
no QL, never mind...it is just an example.....but....
when was the last time you bought a share that shows some sustained multiple year rise?

Multi-year rise? You got ah?

But is multi-year rise of a share the most important thing? Let me show you a couple of examples and see if this "accountant"can grasp it or not.

Stock A, from 2013 to now at multi year high,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 2% 102000
2014 102000 5% 107100
2015 107100 6% 113526
2016 113526 3% 116932
2017 116932 7% 125117
2018 125117 1% 126368

Stock B, a little volatility, more than 10% below its high last year,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 35% 135000
2014 135000 25% 168750
2015 168750 -5% 160313
2016 160313 35% 216422
2017 216422 40% 302991
2018 302991 -10% 272692


Can see which is a better investment or not, "äccountant"?
10/02/2019 4:46 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:19 PM | Report Abuse
KC
or every one of your purchase, sooner or later also collapse just like everyone of OTB purchase?

You mean like Jaks and Sendai which you have been shouting sailang and margin the last two years at RM1.80+ and RM1.40+ collapsed within a few months to 50 sen and 60 sen?

No woh.
10/02/2019 4:48 PM
qqq3 u held the shares or not KC? or just theory?


big difference between theory and actually holding a share.....
10/02/2019 4:53 PM
qqq3 S= Qr

no Q, there is no way u can make any meaningful money in stock market ....kc.....


and from all your 6000 postings, I can see u got no Q
10/02/2019 4:57 PM
qqq3 Stock A, from 2013 to now at multi year high,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 2% 102000
2014 102000 5% 107100
2015 107100 6% 113526
2016 113526 3% 116932
2017 116932 7% 125117
2018 125117 1% 126368

Stock B, a little volatility, more than 10% below its high last year,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 35% 135000
2014 135000 25% 168750
2015 168750 -5% 160313
2016 160313 35% 216422
2017 216422 40% 302991
2018 302991 -10% 272692
======


is that similar to OTB i3 competition returns? a figment of his imagination because no remisier ever buys a share on 1 January and holds until 31 Dec.........
10/02/2019 5:05 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I had completed 30 slides in Microsoft Office PowerPoint “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value of INSAS” All are welcome to ask questions during my presentation on the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley, KL.
In year to come I intend to give another presentation how I turned my 700K+ Xingquan total loss into building a portfolio of 10+ million by learning how to invest from all the Sifu in I3.

Thank you
P/S: Posted by Icon888810/02/2019 15:25: SS Lee damn upset now. He toiled for 3 days 3 nights tearing QL apart to try to figure out its moat and intrinsic value, only to find out it is insider info.
I repost below comment: I’m actually very happy to have Mr. Philip in i3 to give a different view on investing.

Dear Mr. Phillip,
Allow me to correct you, this forum is not toxic nor unhelpful, there are so many Sifu in this forum spending their valuable time and give free different opinion/view base on past performance (facts and figures), projected future earnings growth and etc. Many of the i3 community benefited from these diverse views so that many readers can make an informed decision on adding or selling their holding.

My biggest investment mistake was not knowing the existing of this i3 website much early thus committed many of my early mistakes on stock picking. Yes there are always many free advice given some helpful some hurtful but I take it all with open minded and thank them all.

I know that everyone love a success story even better a comeback success story like you and like you I am going to write my success comeback story 5 year from now.

The only one thing I request from you is please double check on your figures/facts as some of those figures/facts you quote on QL were wrong. You have enjoy a successful 9 years ride on QL stock and I hope you too have learned something from different opinions/views offered by Ricky, Jon and many other Sifu on QL near future growth and their reasons. No doubt QL is great company but do not deserve a PE of 50+. I wish you continuous success on your investment.

Remember: Praise and PLPs are cheap as it make one feel great, good and big headed only criticisms allowed us to see our weakness.

Thank you
10/02/2019 6:28 PM
qqq3 ted by Sslee > Feb 10, 2019 06:28 PM | Report Abuse

Remember: Praise and PLPs are cheap
==========


what is that supposed to mean, sslee?
10/02/2019 6:48 PM
qqq3 if sslee knows stock market is more than Insas and Insas like rubbish.....I will be surprised already....
10/02/2019 6:50 PM
qqq3 kc...look at your best student, that sslee....All he knows is rubbish like Insas.....I blame you personally for bringing up such rubbish students.....
10/02/2019 6:54 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Good luck sslee. I hope your investing future goes well. And thanks for the well wishes. I monitor my suck very closely, have been for the last 9+ years. I usually wait until the quarterly report to make my judgements instead of what happens in between, but point taken. I really don't think you know how to invest for the long term, but I supposed everyone has to learn and start from somewhere. I hope one day you will read my article and learn to apply more than just one simple metric like nta and p/e into your investment analysis.

Have a great investment bloggers day! Do us old men proud!
10/02/2019 7:02 PM
qqq3 sslee....U are a novice...U know it, I know it, we both know it....Why do u behave like you are an old hand in the stock market game?

That is a very dangerous thing to do.....
10/02/2019 7:05 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 06:54 PM | Report Abuse
kc...look at your best student, that sslee....All he knows is rubbish like Insas.....I blame you personally for bringing up such rubbish students.....


Insas is one of the most undervalued stocks in Bursa. SSLee has analysed it with facts and figures which I fully agreed. I believe it is a matter of time its value will be unlocked.

His investment skill is thousand miles ahead of you.

Don't just quack quack quack here and quack quack quack there. Do a well written article to articulate why Insas is a rubbish stock. Best compared with your quack quack quack stocks of Jaks and Sendai which you have been shouting sailang and margin for the last two years and nothing else. I will be very happy to discuss with you there.

And SSLee is a very well-mannered, with very good characters and a man filled with humility.

Compared with you, a man with a skin thicker than the skin of crocodile in PLP, propagating sailang and margin in the stock margin to the newbies and the public with zero investment skill, but to buy the stocks of Jaks and Sendai touted by you. You should be ashamed of yourself.

So stop attacking SSLee.

And also stop attacking others like OTB, whom in making money in the stock market, you can't even smell his fart. He never evne respond to any of your attack.
10/02/2019 7:35 PM
qqq3 kc...U are one of those responsible for SSlee and his rubbish stock picks.....That is a wrong lesson for everybody....wrong approach to stock market....and only novice loves such stock ......

so , what are u good for except getting novices to follow u and your Insas?
10/02/2019 8:29 PM
qqq3 kc...u hate blue chips, u specialize in small untested small caps. That is the first impression I get and still true up to today......Your own money, nobody cares.

U talk 3 talk 4 but your money are in rubbish stocks. ....luckily, this forum got people like 3iii and Philips who show, genuine investors in good quality stocks is actually the easiest way to make money.......participating in the growth of good quality companies as the Bursa is intended to be.......

kc...u are teaching the public the wrong approach to the stock market....Bursa do not need people like u........
10/02/2019 8:37 PM
qqq3 kc...u are a pure hypocrite...talk 3 talk 4....talk East Go West....all your sweet words good for getting young girls and novices.....too bad not suitable for making money in stock market....
10/02/2019 8:46 PM
qqq3 kc...what I say about OTB not correct meh? When was the last time he bought any share that does not eventually collapse? Then , what is the use of the write ups and tp and value this value that good for?


whatever is written ( by OTB) are just excuses to trade.....just have to remember that ...Can I say the same thing about what is written by KC? I probably can........
10/02/2019 8:53 PM
paperplane Sslee, how to attend tht. Sounds interesting
10/02/2019 8:55 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 08:29 PM | Report Abuse
kc...U are one of those responsible for SSlee and his rubbish stock picks.....That is a wrong lesson for everybody....wrong approach to stock market....and only novice loves such stock ......
so , what are u good for except getting novices to follow u and your Insas?


The return of stocks of Jaks and Sendai touted by you everyday with sailang and margin, lost 69% and 56% respectively. Many newbies and novice were cheated by you and lost all their savings in these two stocks.

So who was the culprit touting rubbish stocks for the last two years?

What are you good at except PLP and cheating?
10/02/2019 9:00 PM
qqq3 People lost money in Jaks and Sendai is because they are lousy ....none of my business.....Who doesn't know I am a trader.? I never say please pay me a fee.......
10/02/2019 9:04 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 08:37 PM | Report Abuse
U talk 3 talk 4 but your money are in rubbish stocks. ....luckily, this forum got people like 3iii and Philips who show, genuine investors in good quality stocks is actually the easiest way to make money.......participating in the growth of good quality companies as the Bursa is intended to be.......
kc...u are teaching the public the wrong approach to the stock market....Bursa do not need people like u........


I am motivated by others as below, and not you.


Posted by 3iii > Feb 10, 2019 01:50 PM | Report Abuse
Listen to icon, kc and Philip.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 6, 2019 12:27 PM | Report Abuse
*KC you make a good point as usual.
10/02/2019 9:12 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 09:04 PM | Report Abuse
People lost money in Jaks and Sendai is because they are lousy ....none of my business.....Who doesn't know I am a trader.? I never say please pay me a fee.......

You cheated them and shouting to their ears everyday for the last two years to sailang and margin on Jaks and Sendai, and as you have boasted over and over again that you had made huge gain from the two stocks.

Which is better, avoided huge losses in Jaks and Sendai by paying me a fee for advice the last two years, or get it for free from you touting the stocks and lost a fortune being cheated by you?
10/02/2019 9:16 PM
qqq3 S = Q r

If I am novice , I will be extra careful dealing with internet sifus.....

and kc....your own Q is so small ( almost invisible).....the S must be very limited.......
10/02/2019 9:21 PM
Connie555 Hmm, i smell something sarcastic here.....not sure if smell it wrong or what...

Smell too much fine ebony ass cause my nose malfunction...



=============================================================================

Choivo Capital,

Icon8888, all these angmoh theory too academic. Not practical. Only work in foreign markets and not Malaysia. Hahaha.

Thanks. This was really useful. Would appreciate the title of the book or blog you got it from.
10/02/2019 9:21 PM
Connie555 Dear Sslee, everytime i read your comment or article is like my mum is nagging me for not turning off the water tap of the toilet...too long gas...


but one thing i do like about you is that you have 2 fine ass, that is why they call u SSLee (Ass Ass Lee).



==========================================================================
Sslee,

Dear all,
I had completed 30 slides in Microsoft Office PowerPoint “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value of INSAS” All are welcome to ask questions during my presentation on the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley, KL.
In year to come I intend to give another presentation how I turned my 700K+ Xingquan total loss into building a portfolio of 10+ million by learning how to invest from all the Sifu in I3.
10/02/2019 9:23 PM
paperplane Its CNY, argue winning no point, doesnt increase your wisdoms.earn money be happy. No need ask so many questions.
10/02/2019 9:24 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 09:21 PM | Report Abuse
S = Q r
If I am novice , I will be extra careful dealing with internet sifus.....
and kc....your own Q is so small ( almost invisible).....the S must be very limited.......


Everybody, not only novice, even including "super investor" must be wary about cheat who would profit from relentlessly asking you to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai, and at the back he profited hugely from his activities, at your expense, which he out-rightly boasting about.

Especially for one using 3 qs plus a cube. There are so many Qs, or quacks.

And you know what is a quack? It is

an unqualified person who claims accounting knowledge or other skills"
10/02/2019 9:36 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I repost: Jan 20, 2019 10:28 PM |
Dear Flinstones,
Your advice noted with thanks. I derive no pleasure and in fact feel sad that despite my attempt to save his soul and hitting hard at his conscious and even using reverse psychology of subjecting him to shame and turning the table on him by subjecting him to troll or fact on what damage he had done to those chasing high in JAKS and SENDAI as oppose to what he himself trolling KC and OTB with inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic slanders.

I admit my attempt is futile and he will remain as what he is with no remorse and shame. He is now no-more my problems, as from now, I will not read any comments or blogs of “You-Know-Who”. He is in my past and I should leave the past in the past. He is now an invisible to me. I shall grow wise and move on

Thank you.
P/S: I will let my result do the talking in 5 year time. By the way, the fact I was invited as speaker when I only started my first i3blog on Feb 2018 speak volumes of my sincerity and eagerness to share and learn from all i3 Sifu. As for quack, quack, quack he only good at PLP and still taking every opportunity in flattering and PLP Mr. Philip and 3iii as genuine investors in good quality stocks and KYY with S=Qr excellent Q when in-fact KYY make his biggest mistake in JAKS all because of trap set up by------. How can one be so thick skin and without shame when he admitted he is only a chicken trader, trading on those rubbish stocks and occasionally hoping to get some crumb from his master. I rest my case.

Posted by paperplane > Feb 10, 2019 08:55 PM | Report Abuse
Sslee, how to attend tht. Sounds interesting

Dear paperplane,
I think the event is open to public.
I received the below invitation email:

I'm excited to share with you that I3investor and ShareInvestor Malaysia are jointly organizing an Investment Bloggers' Day 2019 Conference. It will be held on Saturday, 2nd March 2019, from 10am to 5pm at Boulevard Hotel, Mid Valley Kuala Lumpur. We would like to invite you to be a speaker during the event. We will be allocating speaking slot with tentative duration of 45 minutes for your session on that day.

I replied that I accept the invitation by I do not think I need the 45 minute. Later I received this email:
I am Lew Cheong Teck, local partner of i3investor in this region.
Thanks for accepting the invitation. We have allocated 25 mins slot for you.
Once the time slot has been confirmed, we will let you know.

Thank you
10/02/2019 9:49 PM
speakup still think PH is great? read this: https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/02/10/asias-top-tower-runner-sour-after-putrajayas-lack-of-recognition/
PH bloody farking racist! A champion is sidelined because of his race! WTF!!!!
10/02/2019 9:58 PM
qqq3 KC...stock market got more than Jaks and Sendai...and Insas......open your eyes.....


like that already want to be subscription seller.....
10/02/2019 10:10 PM
qqq3 sslee...good luck to your flock of novices in Insas.....but I don't think luck alone is enough.....
10/02/2019 10:12 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 10:10 PM | Report Abuse
KC...stock market got more than Jaks and Sendai...and Insas......open your eyes.....
like that already want to be subscription seller.....


I hope you can answer my question below and not keeping on quack quack quack.

Which is better, avoided huge losses in Jaks and Sendai by treating me for a roti canai and teh tarik for 6 months for advice the last two years, or get it for free from you touting the stocks and lost a fortune being cheated by you?
10/02/2019 10:19 PM
rchi After all the quarrelling n arguments ,at the end of the day,who makes the most money win.This after all is an investment forum.Dun hold grudges,learn even from your detractor if he has something worth learning.Wish you all a happy cny.
10/02/2019 10:26 PM
qqq3 kc...wrong.....the better choice is to be like Philips.....for my 20+ son, for novices, stock market should be treated as a place to take part in the growth of good quality companies....

only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....


learn to say NO, including learn to say NO to internet sifus.....

for trading and speculations.....leave this to the full time traders, the professional traders and the retired people.......

getting novices involved, like getting this SSlee involved...how long before all his money disappears?
10/02/2019 10:26 PM
cheoky Qqq3 should disappear in i3 for good. But cant i guess. There is no life beyond i3 for him.
10/02/2019 10:32 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

Qqq3 should disappear in i3 for good. But cant i guess. There is no life beyond i3 for him.
======

maybe all your money disappears sooner than I disappear.....
10/02/2019 10:34 PM
birkincollector learn ur TA.....surely can find 20-30 plus shares that u can buy....earning money on a daily basis is not difficult lor.....dont fall in love with particular shares then keep praying it will go up forever or go every where promote like mad.......
10/02/2019 10:35 PM
cheoky Cny your son never come back home ar? I accompany my parents breakfast. They got no time to press their phone le. You want me buy u a breakfast? Gong xi fatt cai ya
10/02/2019 10:39 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:39 PM | Report Abuse

Cny your son never come back home ar? I accompany my parents breakfast. They got no time to press their phone le. You want me buy u a breakfast? Gong xi fatt cai ya
=======

my son still stays with me...26 years old already ,
10/02/2019 10:44 PM
cheoky Before you criticise other like a bulldog, why not motivate your 26 years old son go on his own? Still stay will you, wings cant grow la. Cant be as dynamic as you le. Or he is 16?
10/02/2019 10:51 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

criticise other like a bulldog,
=====

good......all true some more.
10/02/2019 10:58 PM
stockraider Better not loh...!!

qqq knew he will be imparting stupid knowledge to his children mah..!!

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

criticise other like a bulldog,
=====

good......all true some more.
11/02/2019 10:08 AM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.
11/02/2019 11:46 AM
Icon8888 Fabien and I are almost like twins

there is very little to disagree when come to investing

we are from the same universe
11/02/2019 11:48 AM
stockraider Correct mah....!!

People like 3iii and Philip are like pondan wants everything to win loh...!!

As a result u become pondan...not daring enough & lost many opportunity mah..!!

By right big overall gain is the answer mah...!!

Just like football if your score is 5-2 is it not better than 2-0 leh ?

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Feb 11, 2019 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.
11/02/2019 11:55 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>
Feb 10, 2019 01:50 PM | Report Abuse

Listen to icon, kc and Philip.

As for others, for the moment, with a lot of caution.
>>>>



Listen to icon, kc, Philip and Lizi.

As for others, for the moment, with a lot of caution.
16/02/2019 7:09 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In wah I didn't know unker Icon got so many good articles one leh!
07/04/2019 4:13 PM

(Icon) Success Transformer - Meets My Buy Criteria

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 1 Feb 2019, 1:32 PM


 

Success is principally involved in manufacturing of transformers and lighting fixtures. It is a decent company with reasonable profit track record.

 

 

I bumped into it recently while scanning for undervalued stocks. 

 

The reasons for buying :-

 

(a) the stock is currently trading at multi-year low;

 

(b) reported EPS of 2.37 sen in September 2018 quarter. Based on annualised EPS of 9.5 sen and 55 sen market price, prospective PER is 5.8 times;

 

(c) copper price has declined by 15% since mid 2018. Success uses copper for its transformers;

 

  

 

(d) Strong balance sheets. Based on shareholders' funds of RM315 mil, borrowings of RM56 mil, cash and equivalent of RM50 mil, net borrowing and net gearing is RM6 mil and 2% respectively only.

 

(e) Positive guidance by management recently. Please refer to article below. 

 

 

Take a look. Don't worry, I won't pump and dump you.

 

Have a prosperous Chinese New Year !!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labels: SUCCESS
  2 people like this.
 
Connie555 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Don't don't don't simply dump things like ah jon dump his lego around the house, aunty Connie step on it also buay tahan the pain, later u dump me stock summore i buay tahan the mentally pain of my money gone.....

Aunty Connie wish u huat huat.



======================================================================

Take a look. Don't worry, I won't pump and dump you.
01/02/2019 2:02 PM
Choivo Capital aunty where is my seaweed keropok!

Go back kitchen make, dont come market and lose your retirement money!

I'll pay RM20 for one tin!
01/02/2019 2:08 PM
qqq3 buying a share at multiple year low with hope in business recovery is a perfect contrarian stock.........

more potential rewards and makes better sense than the Insas players.........or Puncak players.....


me? The trader in me cannot find a reason to buy....the newly discovered "only the best" in me cannot invest....so its a non starter for me.....I don't have such a huge capital.


I want to focus.
01/02/2019 2:09 PM
Choivo Capital If the earnings come back should be ok gua. Business looks moatless, but it looks cheap enough, but im not sure its that great of an investment versus others cos now.

2.5% or less ok lah.
01/02/2019 2:13 PM
qqq3 a lot of multiple year low stocks....no wonder Icon has become a contrarian.....

good hunting ground.

each one 1% can buy 100 of these.
01/02/2019 2:17 PM
soojinhou I like their lighting business. You can say they are the equivalent of IQGROUP for infrastructure projects. However, earnings are quite volatile.
01/02/2019 2:19 PM
Choivo Capital soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?
01/02/2019 2:45 PM
probability have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...

...........................................

what is most important - constant adaptations to market expectations...flexibility...

this could be the 'hidden moat'....
01/02/2019 3:09 PM
ramada (b) reported EPS of 2.37 sen in September 2018 quarter. Based on annualised EPS of 9.5 sen and 55 sen market price, prospective PER is 5.8 times.

If based on previous annualised EPS of negative -2.76 sen, this counter worth -2.76 sen x 4 x 10PE= -1.10? You cannot just simply using latest EPS then multiply with 4, right?
01/02/2019 3:09 PM
ramada This is called SCAM. Not PROMOTING.
01/02/2019 3:10 PM
Icon8888 Yes you can count like that also. Then the conclusion is don’t buy loh

I am not trying to convince you to buy
01/02/2019 3:11 PM
qqq3 Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...

...........................................

what is most important - constant adaptations to market expectations...flexibility...

this could be the 'hidden moat'....
======================================


this post I can 100% agree.......
01/02/2019 3:12 PM
moneykj Thanks for remind me back this forgotten counter. Current commodity price environment-yes. Price at multiyears low-yes. Technical wise-mixed. I think the best time to buy is after coming q. From technical point of view, I prefer Fitters' chart.
01/02/2019 3:32 PM
moneykj Remember, you have 1 more strong q to compare to, 2017 4th q.
01/02/2019 3:37 PM
Choivo Capital Brother probability,

Moat does not mean you wont die during a disruption, but harder to die, and may even thrive.

Lets say now, very simple. Retail apocalypse. Because of Amazon and online retailing, all the shopping malls and retail companies in the US dying.

SEARS from 40 dollar a share to 20 cents, now almost bankrupt.

Parkson from RM8.81 to RM0.22.

UK, Nordstrom etc all dying.

Whatever moat these companies had, was great no doubt, but it wasn't a true moat. In the end, get murder by a structural change initiated by the emergence of Amazon.

But then, not all retail companies die.

COSTCO, a wholesale grocery business, this year, profit and revenue up 4%. And it has growing like that for the last 20 years.

Share price for USD50 in 2008 to USD215 today.

Why?

Because COSTCO is a true wonderful business with a moat. Let me explain to you this co.

What is a wonderful business? How does a moat sustain for decades?

First, it needs to be the standard good business in great industries, that has a certain structural edge etc..

But the key thing for a moat is, it needs to be WONDERFUL for society. You need to tie your profitability to benefit towards society to such an extent that, the more money you make, the better off it is for society.

COSTCO is a wholesaler, can buy your nestle, coca cola, groceries there, just need to buy higher volume.

Last year, they made USD3 billion or so. Except, this consist wholly of their USD50 yearly membership card. They make ZERO, KOSONG, NOTHING from selling groceries.

Here is what they are telling their customers. Every year, we will only make USD50 dollars in profit from you, regardless of how much you buy. You spend 10 million with us? We only make 50 dollar. You spend USD20k? We make USD50 from you only.

And this company has one of the lowest cost base in the industry, and is completely focused on cutting cost.

They got no name tag. Just sticker with your name. Uniform? Bring yourself, black shirt, slacks and shoes.

When coca cola try to increase selling price by 5 cents per bottle, they completely refuse to stock coca cola, telling their customers, they feel coca cola does not provide enough value for them to sell it to their customers.

Coca cola buckled and didnt increase the price.

If this company next year makes US10 billion instead of USD3 billion. One can argue that they have tripled the benefit they contributed to american society.

That is a moat.

Look through that lens when finding companies to buy in malaysia. Got one or two such companies in bursa. :)


======
Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...
01/02/2019 3:50 PM
probability cold eye still the shareholder?
01/02/2019 3:55 PM
Choivo Capital sorry they increased card prices. They increase card prices every 5 or si years.

Got 2 tier, USD60 for standard. USD120 for companies. Renewal rates is higher than 90% per annum.
01/02/2019 3:57 PM
qqq3 bear market victim.....this is one of many such bear market victims......Its wrong to think it is rare or exceptional.

2018 small cap bear market hits all of them , without exception. Smart are those who avoided huge losses in the down period......
01/02/2019 4:02 PM
qqq3 the real lesson....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/187899.jsp
01/02/2019 4:05 PM
soojinhou soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?

Their lighting is supposed to be smart, and therefore energy saving. For example, the light brightens when a car approaches and then communicate the information to the next light. It is IOT based and smart, and so it's controllable via computer. IQGROUP's Lumiqs is also based on similar concept but they are targeting industrial customers, such as those used in warehouses, rather than infrastructure like Success. As for a moat? Well, given enough money and motivation, most engineering can come out with similar solutions. But given Success is the incumbent and has established a portfolio of projects, they are harder to unseat by competitors. In the end, it's ultimately cost vs benefit. Are councils or property owners willing to pay more for smarter lighting, or just go for cheap dumb lights?
02/02/2019 9:25 AM
Icon8888 Moat is overrated
02/02/2019 9:39 AM
Connie555 Lego belum siap pasang now u want seaweed keropok???

swear to god not gonna go back to the kitchen where i pocketed my first million......

anyway wish all of u here (included my son John England) a prosperous CNY, more huat than pig head.



=============================================================

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 1, 2019 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

aunty where is my seaweed keropok!

Go back kitchen make, dont come market and lose your retirement money!

I'll pay RM20 for one tin!
02/02/2019 10:44 AM
i3lurker when revenue keeps dropping share price will definitely be at multi-year low.

its normal

if nothing changes 2019 revenue will drop more
03/02/2019 11:20 AM
value88 I also look for undervalued company to buy, thus I looked into Success' latest quarterly and annual report to find out more after reading Icon's article above.
My findings are :
- The core EPS in FY2018 (ended Jun'18) was 5.3sen. At 53.5sen per share now, Success is selling at PE = 10.1x which is not cheap nor high.
- However, if i use this Q1FY19's reported EPS of 2.37sen to annualise, i get 9.48sen/year. This translates to PE = 5.6x which is attractive.
- But, i noticed that Success's quarterly earnings is inconsistent, this means we may see much lower or higher EPS in subsequent Qs...As such, predicting next Qs' EPS using Q1FY19's reported EPS is not reliable.
03/02/2019 3:31 PM
value88 The main concern for Success is its Process Engineering segment which suffered losses in FY18, and management anticipates still challenging prospect for this segment in FY2019.
In addition, Success exports >50% of its product to overseas, and therefore, favours weak RM but RM is strengthening against USD now.
03/02/2019 3:32 PM
value88 Based on the above findings, i think i will leave Success for now and put it in KIV list.
03/02/2019 3:34 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) To be honest, I have bought the qps automatic voltage stabilizer ( different from capbank) from success, especially for easy Malaysia projects where the voltage sometimes fruits from 240v to 200v and 415v do to 360. It helps out alot.

However, ever since my purchasing team found alibaba, we have been taking our sales of Nikkon street lights and avs systems for refineries directly from China. Especially as these items do not require sirim or have government control requirements.

Their prices especially are more expensive than China, and unable to compete in terms of low cost assembly efficiency, and bulk raw materials costs.

For me business competitive advantage is everything. I don't see success transformer to be able to grow their products exports significantly.

The is no major tax break from mida for parents products like vitrox.
The products sold is very standardised in market and commodities.
Lighting industries are very sad. Just ask iq-group what happened to their business.

Moat is basically a word to describe why you would buy the products the company produces.

Is it the cheapest in the market? No. QTC Thailand is far cheaper. We buy from them.
Is it the best in the market? No. Megaman is. Or osram, even Phillips.
Is there a local requirement that requires qps product? No. Sirim unneeded. Many hospitals use China brand. In fact Nikkon lighting Mahal.
Is there management excellent? I leave it up to you to decide.
Is the management shareholder aligned? This at least his my criteria.
Has the revenues grown in last five years? Nope.
Has the profits grown in last five years? Nope.
Is it undervalued? Yes, dearly.
Will it do well in the future? The business has hit terminal growth. What you are getting is simply minimal growth yearly.
Is it a good buy? I guess.

>>>>>>
Moat is overrated
03/02/2019 4:06 PM
qqq3 philip...if analysts put on your thinking cap....analysts and sifus no more job already.....

the job of analysts and sifus is to convince u to take money from your pocket and put into their pocket , its also called commissions.

and ideas is the SOP and the KPI, not the customers well being....that is well known enough.


my analysts son KPI is the number of reports he churns out, not the accuracy of his reports........
03/02/2019 5:48 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) Yeah if you tell everyone 99% of the time stocks in bursa is rubbish, I think your son won't be able to keep his job for long. Sad but true.
03/02/2019 6:20 PM
qqq3 (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 3, 2019 06:20 PM | Report Abuse

Yeah if you tell everyone 99% of the time stocks in bursa is rubbish, I think your son won't be able to keep his job for long. Sad but true.
==========

hahahaha...sifus also at risk....
03/02/2019 6:28 PM
cheoky Phillips overtook qqq3 in i3 rank. With substance. Qqq3 as usual without substance can retired for good
03/02/2019 6:50 PM
Apabagus icon looks like you have lost your touch after coming in at the bottom of 2018 i3 stock competition...you want play undervalued cos go ask calvintaneng.
just focus on your area of competence...finding growth stocks.
i like to see how you perform against s=qr....hahaha
03/02/2019 6:53 PM
Apabagus By the way what is the meaning of (s=qr)?
03/02/2019 6:55 PM
Philip (Can I advise you?) That one actually is introduced to me by qqq3.

It is the mathematical formula for success.

Success = q( your ability to execute )*r( the value of your idea)
Basically in stocks, how well you do depends on your ability to have a great idea, then how will you execute on your idea.

So if you had a great idea to invest in hartalega in 2009, but you only bought 10 lots, you don't get to be successful.

But if like kyy had a mediocre idea in liihen, but he sailang, he still success.

Imagine if he sailang all the way in Amazon 2009, he would have been a monster!
03/02/2019 7:37 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 2, 2019 09:39 AM | Report Abuse

Moat is overrated
>>>


Ask Nestle!
03/02/2019 7:55 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) So far, I have come across 3 people in this forum who have been honest with their postings with good intention for the good of all:

1. Mr 1015
2. Icon
3. KC

Another remains unnamed but not difficult to guess on.
03/02/2019 8:01 PM
Apabagus s=qr with 403 posts made 10 times more impact to i3 than 3iii with 4930 posts.
03/02/2019 8:10 PM
qqq3 s= Q r....... that I did not copy from Philips.... u can check whose thread appears first.
03/02/2019 8:11 PM
qqq3 quote here quote there that is the easiest part
03/02/2019 8:25 PM
qqq3 execute that is the difficult part
03/02/2019 8:26 PM
qqq3 there is a quote for every situation
03/02/2019 8:26 PM
Icon8888 I am extremely grateful of 3iii's comment below. Finally somebody gives me due recognition instead of baseless accusation of pump and dump

==============

3iii So far, I have come across 3 people in this forum who have been honest with their postings with good intention for the good of all:

1. Mr 1015
2. Icon
3. KC

Another remains unnamed but not difficult to guess on.
03/02/2019 20:01
04/02/2019 11:25 AM
Choivo Capital Sounds easily replicated to me tbh.

Probably undervalued, can consider 1-1.5% of portfolio i guess. But with market this good, they are so many wonderful companies at similar valuations.

Making it harder to swallow.


====
Posted by soojinhou > Feb 2, 2019 09:25 AM | Report Abuse

soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?

Their lighting is supposed to be smart, and therefore energy saving. For example, the light brightens when a car approaches and then communicate the information to the next light. It is IOT based and smart, and so it's controllable via computer. IQGROUP's Lumiqs is also based on similar concept but they are targeting industrial customers, such as those used in warehouses, rather than infrastructure like Success. As for a moat? Well, given enough money and motivation, most engineering can come out with similar solutions. But given Success is the incumbent and has established a portfolio of projects, they are harder to unseat by competitors. In the end, it's ultimately cost vs benefit. Are councils or property owners willing to pay more for smarter lighting, or just go for cheap dumb lights?
04/02/2019 11:29 AM
Philip (Can I advise you?) And then it reverts back to mean, going back from 0.50 cents to 0.7 cents, for a 20 cents gain. Pretty much a good buy I guess.

I just ordered another 2 sets of qps voltage stabilizers for factories to combat unstable voltage in tawau.

Congrats icon. 20 cents gain is impressive. Hopefully it can fully uptrend been to its original price of rm1 few years ago.

I wonder how many of choivo stocks returned 30% recently?
02/03/2019 10:11 PM
qqq3 ,S = =Q r is the best summary in the world..... keep in mind..... best don't need to be most complicated
02/03/2019 10:53 PM

(Icon) LC Titan Price Collapse - Shaken Shareholders and Contrarians Scramble In Different Direction

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 30 Jan 2019, 10:11 PM


1. Shareholders Scrambled For Exit

 

Today, LC Titan reported a profit of RM11 mil, significantly lower than the previous quarters’ RM300 mil plus (per quarter). The poor result was mostly due to margin squeeze, caused by high inventory cost and low selling price due to drop in demand. Many investors panic and rushed for the exit. Share price declined sharply from RM4.60 to as low as RM4.14, a drop of 10%. As a contrarian, I scrambled in the opposite direction, picking up some shares at RM4.15.

 

Why did I do that ?

 

 

2. Contrarianism

 

Contrarianism does not mean that you think the OPPOSITE of others. When a building is on fire and everybody is rushing out, you are not a contrarian if you rush in. It just doesn’t make sense.

 

Contrarianism, means that you think DIFFERENTLY from others. When something happens, the crowd will move in one direction. They are not necessarily wrong, but the state of commotion will sometime give rise to opportunities. If you can stay calm and think rationally, you might be able to exploit the subtleties and nuances and benefit from them.

 

One good example is BIMB. Due to spate of recent bad news related to Tabung Haji and 1MDB (not even directly related to BIMB), the stock has been sold down from RM4.20 to RM3.60 despite reporting sterling set of result. The crowd thinks like this : there must be a lot of skeletons in the closet waiting to be uncovered, better play safe just in case NPL spikes in the future. As a contrarian, I take into consideration the exceptional quality of our own banking regulatory system, led by ex governor Zeti. I chose to believe that BIMB’s asset quality should be quite ok. Afterall its NPLs are only 2% plus. So I added some to my portfolio at RM3.60.

 

It is still early to say that I am right and the crowd is wrong, but BIMB is an example of how contrarian thinks and acts.

 

 

3. Structural vs. Cyclical Factors

 

When companies get into difficulty, the problem they face can be broadly divided into two main types - structural vs. cyclical.

 

Let’s take George Kent as an example. The day after GE 14, George Kent share price dropped from RM4.00 to RM2.50. Are you a contrarian if you rush in to buy at RM2.50 ? No, you are not. You are merely a fool. The crowd is not always wrong. In George Kent’s case, the share price melt down is justified. The problem confounding the company is STRUCTURAL in nature. This kind of problem is very difficult to be rectified. There is almost no more hope. Rushing in when others are getting out is suicidal. 

 

Cyclical issues, on the other hand, are caused by industry related cycles. It could be due to lower selling price, lower demand, or higher operating cost. For the latter, it was mostly due to rising raw material cost or labour cost, etc. Unlike structural issues, cyclical issues tend to go away in a relatively short period of time, from few quarters to two, three years. 

 

In my opinion, share price collapse due to cyclicality is perfect opportunity for contrarians to act. 

 

 

4. Be Selective

 

On 20 January 2019, I wrote an article “What is Investing ?”. In the article, I mentioned the following :

 

Anything bought based on careful evaluation of value and proper reasoning, and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.”

 

Yup, the key word is “held until recovery”. When you buy a stock, especially when you are acting contrarian, always ask yourself this question, “will the stock ever recover within maximum of two to three years ? Does it have the requisite qualities to do that ?” (According to my definition, anything longer than three years means you have made a mistake).

 

To answer the question, you need to take into consideration the following : 

(a) (once again) is the problem structural or cyclical ?

(b) is the balance sheets strong enough to withstand the down cycle ?

(c) is the stock near all time low ?

 

If the answers are yes, then you can consider buying some.

 

But you must be prepared for more pain to come. Famous investor Seth Klarman, who wrote the book “Margin of Safety”, pointed out that “contrarian investors are always wrong initially”. What he means is that after the initial decline, share price is likely to further go south. It will take some time for the stock to stabilise and ultimately recover. You need to have holding power.

 

 

5. Concluding Remarks

 

What is the main message of this article ? Is it about the benefit of acting contrarian ? No. The main message of this article is that if you ignore the negative impact of cyclical factors, a whole new world will open in front of you. This is especially true for raw material cost.

 

Let’s take 3A as an example. In the past two quarters, its profit has dropped due to higher raw material cost (tapioca). Before this, I will react to this adverse development and sell 3A. But now I think differently. I will ignore it and hold on. As a matter of fact, I will monitor tapioca price closely and jump in to buy more when there are signs that tapioca price is heading south (it is already happening). 

 

Why should you behave in such a way ? Because you are an investor - you buy good quality companies, ignore cyclical noises **, hold on to them until they recover, then sell for a profit.

 

( ** Why should you ignore cyclical noises ? Because you have no choice !!! Things happen all the time in the world of business. If everytime a minor hiccup happens to the company and you cut loss, how many times you can do that ? Have you ever heard of death by thousand cuts ?)

 

The benefit of doing so is that you no more need to track latest quarterly result closely. The company's profit can drop, but since you know it can recover, you don’t need to do anything. It is just paper loss. One day you will make money when the upcycle returns. 

 

Once you think and act like that (especially ignoring raw material cost fluctuation), you will suddenly find that many stocks will become investible. Can you imagine the difficulty of predicting the profitability of LC Titan over next few quarters ? There are so many things in flux. Oil price, demand for chemicals, currency fluctuations, competitive forces, etc. These things are so complicated, most retail investors like us will never be able to fully grasp them, let alone predicting them. However, if you ignore those cyclical factors, hold on to the stock with conviction (of course, must be bought at attractive valuation), there is a fairly decent chance that the stars will align one day and the company's profit will rebound. That is when you can cash out.

 

The same applies to many other manufacturing companies such as Petronm, Hengyuan, Johotin, Perstima, 3A, Petchem and poultry companies, etc.

 

(Note : I will be a bit careful if it involves forex factor as currencies once move in a direction, can potentially last for many years. For example : Ringgit's weakening since 2015. For me, major currency changes can potentially be structural. Make sure you are not caught in the wrong cycle).

Labels: LCTITAN
  7 people like this.
 
CharlesT I also dare not ask people to buy Currymee with TP Rm1.20 or TP RM2.00 lah
31/01/2019 9:02 AM
Choivo Capital Great read, Thanks Icon.
31/01/2019 9:20 AM
Connie555 Look who is here!!! here comes the PLP again!!!!

Months back you are saying Icon article is for him to make money off over the optimistic people......

now u at there smelling people ass? what kind of people are u? Do u have credibility?

If u canot stand on your own principle, your so called unethical motive by those who posting article recommend stock and plug in some figure, then condemn icon instead of puking out some geli words like thanks icon, it really looks like you are licking icon ass seriously....

where is your credibility??? condemn people la....where is your lampa??? your father never give you balls???

Sorry icon, early morning kao zai at your discussion page.


__________________________________________

Choivo Capital Great read, Thanks Icon.

===================================

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 14, 2018 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=======================≠============


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
31/01/2019 9:43 AM
BumbleBee Ya agreed
Great article
Something to remember forever
31/01/2019 10:14 AM
RainT can only buy if cyclical if there is low enough to pick

if not why invest and stuck your capital for few years

you can move to uptrend stock ...dont go against the trend also
31/01/2019 10:25 AM
qqq3 quality is boring, long term is boring. even contrarian can be boring.

Over long term, over a life time, 3iii and Philip method works...

icon888 method also works well.....

They have the character for it.

I am pretty sure.
31/01/2019 11:05 AM
qqq3 Tan Teng Boo of Icap....fantastic theoretician, fantastic economist, but over the last 10 years cannot execute......there are people like that also.
31/01/2019 11:07 AM
CharlesT Aiyo yr friend OTB works the best over the last 5 years...got records here one

Not like somebody who simply jump out last Dec to claim he bought QL since 2009
31/01/2019 11:12 AM
qqq3 KYY is into quarter profit X 4 at the moment....maybe , he gets lucky and Carimin every quarter better than last quarter Carimin $ 3, just like his VS used to be.....

S=Qr


KYY has proven he got the Q...now, what he needs is the r from his chosen stock......
31/01/2019 11:12 AM
CharlesT I m not sure whether i shall trust him more or Ah Jon's 500% annual return imaginary friend
31/01/2019 11:13 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Jan 31, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

KYY is into quarter profit X 4 at the moment....maybe , he gets lucky and Carimin every quarter better than last quarter Carimin $ 3, just like his VS used to be.....

S=Qr


KYY has proven he got the Q...now, what he needs is the r from his chosen stock......

I thought u said yesterday that u dont want to promote this currymee?
31/01/2019 11:13 AM
CharlesT Have to do work lah...no free meals in this world

I dont blame u qqq3
31/01/2019 11:14 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Jan 31, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

Tan Teng Boo of Icap....fantastic theoretician, fantastic economist, but over the last 10 years cannot execute......there are people like that also.

Lately i have a different perception on TTB..

How on earth can u put somebody's money into FD and make few millions RM fm doing so? Somemore these investors will go worship him every year in their AGM

Smart leh
31/01/2019 11:16 AM
qqq3 charles....its the process that counts.....

not just the immediate results.....

3 iii and Philips has the right process and character, habit and practise and intellectual capacity to make it work for them........

OTB? OTB process too many mistakes, mistakes too often, up and down , up and down only....no use one....further, it depended on client money to push up his shares.......

I also think icon has the intellectual capacity and character to make his method work for him.
31/01/2019 11:22 AM
qqq3 Posted by CharlesT > Jan 31, 2019 11:13 AM | Report Abuse

I thought u said yesterday that u dont want to promote this currymee?
=========

I am not promoting carimee...I am just saying luck works in mysterious ways......
31/01/2019 11:30 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Jan 31, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

KYY is into quarter profit X 4 at the moment....maybe , he gets lucky and Carimin every quarter better than last quarter Carimin $ 3, just like his VS used to be.....

S=Qr


KYY has proven he got the Q...now, what he needs is the r from his chosen stock...

This one not considered as one of yr promotion on currymee ah?
31/01/2019 11:32 AM
qqq3 then don't consider it as I promoting carimee.......
31/01/2019 11:36 AM
Icon8888 two of the most argumentative people in i3 are now engaging each other passionately

I have been waiting for this to happen when I posted my article
31/01/2019 11:36 AM
wiki123 bcoz the recent curry mee was very delicious...
31/01/2019 11:41 AM
CharlesT Different...

One otb hates most

Another one otb n h8s twin bro officially proclaimed as the smartest guy in i3

So different class n level
31/01/2019 11:42 AM
CharlesT When u see ultraman is fighting with monster u cant simply categoried both under the same fighting monster right?
31/01/2019 11:44 AM
Icon8888 not much different lah

monster destroy city

so does ultra man
31/01/2019 11:45 AM
CharlesT Monster may eat u but ultraman will never loh
31/01/2019 11:47 AM
CharlesT At worst he may accidently hentam yr house when u were in toiket n accidently killed u only
31/01/2019 11:48 AM
Icon8888 hello CharlesT
31/01/2019 11:48 AM
CharlesT Weird...i still prefer Ah Jon's photo than Ultraman...

Maybe ultraman can kill monsters only but cannot bring Ong like AH Jon
31/01/2019 11:49 AM
Icon8888 I remove Jon's photo because I don't want to provoke Connie mama

She has high blood pressure. I want to keep her calm
31/01/2019 11:51 AM
CharlesT Have u observed after u changed Ah Jon's photo yr luck in stock mkt also gone?

Dont play play with fengsui

fengsui plays an important role in my 67 sense investing too
31/01/2019 11:51 AM
CharlesT Lee Kah Seng also trusted Chan Pak very much in his early days until Chan Pak tok tok chiang many years ago
31/01/2019 11:52 AM
Icon8888 sorry, money come second, Connie mama health rank number 1

I need her to chase away the bad spirit
31/01/2019 11:52 AM
CharlesT Let's c how it goes...after a while u may need Ah Jon's handsome avatar again...
31/01/2019 11:53 AM
CharlesT Dont be iron teeth
31/01/2019 11:53 AM
Icon8888 let see what happens to trade talks

if no deal, then switch back to Ah Boy photo

like you say, he Ong me
31/01/2019 11:54 AM
CharlesT I also seldom make fun on Ah Jon lately....who knows one day i may need his handsome photo if my 67 senses investing go Holland....just in case
31/01/2019 11:55 AM
CharlesT Considered it as insurance
31/01/2019 11:55 AM
Icon8888 you shouldn't play too much with your 67

keep it for important shots
31/01/2019 11:56 AM
CharlesT 67 is good...as long as it's hard

I think u have almost forgotten the hardness
31/01/2019 11:57 AM
Icon8888 How dare you ? I ultraman leh
31/01/2019 11:58 AM
CharlesT lol...c Ultraman can bring u ONG or not loh
31/01/2019 12:01 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Ultramen exist meh
If there is no godzila
31/01/2019 12:02 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 I hope to Wacth ultramen punch every Godzilla
In my kid time
31/01/2019 12:04 PM
Icon8888 Got to go

Just got a call from Godzilla

He wants to eat ice cream with me
31/01/2019 12:05 PM
CharlesT www.quora.com/Are-Godzilla-and-Ultraman-in-the-same-universe
31/01/2019 12:05 PM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 I'm afraid the ice cream is invented by a sick scientists this round
31/01/2019 12:06 PM
probability walao..ultraman...stirs the ultraspirit childhood in me....
31/01/2019 12:11 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Icon, why not have a look at Dialog?
31/01/2019 2:05 PM
Icon8888 High PE woh
31/01/2019 2:09 PM
Choivo Capital Haha funny lah you guys.

Personally, when Icon use my picture, my portfolio went up about 10%, when he stop, starting dropping.

As i no cash now (only some credit left) and unlikely to buy stocks for the next 2 months or so.

I would be quite ok with Icon changing back to my picture and letting us Ong and feel nice abit for CNY hahaha.
31/01/2019 2:16 PM
Connie555 Ha........................ha.........................ha

veli far ni (funny) la u.....

Keep the PLP going, we old already, dr say it is good to have some entertainment to keep the mind active....

would like to see more....



=====≠=========≠======≠======================≠=====


Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 31, 2019 02:16 PM | Report Abuse

Haha funny lah you guys.

Personally, when Icon use my picture, my portfolio went up about 10%, when he stop, starting dropping.

As i no cash now (only some credit left) and unlikely to buy stocks for the next 2 months or so.

I would be quite ok with Icon changing back to my picture and letting us Ong and feel nice abit for CNY hahaha.
31/01/2019 3:08 PM
Connie555 Look who is here!!! here comes the PLP again!!!!

Months back you are saying Icon article is for him to make money off over the optimistic people......

now u at there smelling people ass? what kind of people are u? Do u have credibility?

If u canot stand on your own principle, your so called unethical motive by those who posting article recommend stock and plug in some figure, then condemn icon instead of puking out some geli words like thanks icon, it really looks like you are licking icon ass seriously....

where is your credibility??? condemn people la....where is your lampa??? your father never give you balls???

Sorry icon, early morning kao zai at your discussion page.


__________________________________________

Choivo Capital Great read, Thanks Icon.

===================================

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 14, 2018 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=======================≠============


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
31/01/2019 4:35 PM

(Icon) Why DKSH At Current Level Is Less Risky Than Many People Think

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 22 Jan 2019, 12:21 PM


 

DKSH traded between RM4 and RM6 most of the time. Based on 158 mil shares, the market essentially ascribed it a valuation ranging from RM632 mil to RM948 mil.

 

Based on historical earning of RM51 mil, it seemed that the market is comfortable with PER between 12 times and 18 times for the company.

 

However, due to its recent announcement of intended acquisition of Auric Pacific for RM500 mil (yet to be consummated), share price has collapsed to RM2.35 as at today. This translates into market cap of RM371 mil.

 

Investors have reason to be worried. As at September 2018, DKSH has RM190 mil borrowings and small amount of cash. Plus the RM500 mil borrowings to fund the acquisition, interest bearing debts will balloon to RM690 mil. This is quite a huge amount, as shareholders' funds is only RM586 mil. Gearing will become 1.17 times.

 

For most people, the first reaction is to shy away, as there is certain degree of financial risk associated with such high gearing.

 

What happens if there is an economic downturn and DKSH faces liquidity problem ? Will DKSH go into financial distress ?

 

Not likely. Because they can always do a cash call (rights issue or placement, depends on the price). Swiss major shareholder holds 74% equity interest in DKSH.

 

Isn't that bad ? Wouldn't that result in expansion of equity base, potentially diluting earnings and ROE ?

 

Yes, it will.

 

But if you take a closer look, even if that happens, worst come to the worst market capitalisation will go back to pre decline level.

 

Let's put in some numbers for illustration purpose.

 

Let's say DKSH does a rights issue of RM200 mil. That should be sufficient to address the issue as borrowings will be brought down to a more comfortable level of RM490 mil, while shareholders' funds will become RM786 mil. Gearing will drop from 1.17 times to 0.62 times. A relatively conservative and safe level for an established and well run company such as DKSH. (you can do another simulation with RM300 mil cash call, and the gearing will drop to 0.44 times).

 

What will happen when market cap balloon from the current RM371 mil to RM571 mil post rights issue ?

 

Nothing bad or drastic will really happen.

 

This is because based on DKSH's earning of RM51 mil, market had previously accepted a valuation ranging from RM632 mil to RM948 mil.

 

I know the message is not really that clear at this point, let me elaborate.

 

The market has penalised DKSH very severely due to the Auric Pacific deal, causing its market cap to decline from RM632 mil to RM371 mil now.

 

Due to that overreaction, even if they subsequently undertake a rights issue of RM200 mil to RM300 mil, worst come to the worst, you will face stagnation of share price. Share price is unlikely to go further down from current level.

 

In other words, if you buy at current level of RM2.35 and you are lucky, there will be no cash call, and you can potentially enjoy upside of 100% as share price goes back to as high as RM6.00 pursuant to earning multiple reflation.

 

If you are unlucky and there is a cash call, you are likely only to lose the opportunity for capital appreciation. There is unlikely to be huge downside risk. Because historically the market has already been comfortable with such market capitalisation based on earning of RM51 mil.

 

Limited risk, with substantial upside. That is how I see DKSH at current price level.

 

(If you find my reasoning above incorrect, kindly let me know. As I would also want to take remedial action to correct my mistake. Thank you)

 

p/s : Cynics will accuse me of intention to pump and dump. Just wait for them to appear.

Labels: DKSH
  2 people like this.
 
moneykj Hehe...Loaded 15% in stock pick portfolio. 4.00 is not a problem, represent more than 50% gain.
@Icon, why you didn't put in your portfolio?
22/01/2019 12:58 PM
Connie555 looking for my son where is him right now..... this is unethical icon gor, ltr my baby will cry mother cry dad again.....T.T

his dad hv to work 8hrs under the sun for the lego, now he cry around ltr fan dou his lou dao working pulak....i am worry
22/01/2019 1:21 PM
qqq3 i think have put in a lot of thoughts.......
22/01/2019 1:27 PM
Najib Zamry Even I Capital has buy call for DKSH at this price now.
22/01/2019 1:28 PM
Airline Bobby Whatever it is. After March only invest.
22/01/2019 1:28 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C458G7980
22/01/2019 1:32 PM
Nicholasming91 Right issue will go up kah? Lol
22/01/2019 1:35 PM
qqq3 The Company is majority-owned by
DKSH Holding Ltd. of Switzerland
(“DKSH Switzerland”).

The case of 2 Swiss companies in Malaysia....

One Nestle

and one DKSH, long term investors also die die kaw kaw......

stockmarket not so easy........
22/01/2019 1:41 PM
dudu Buying a company with 500m, but that company only earn 20m yearly....PE25....500m financial cost almost 20m yearly
22/01/2019 6:26 PM
Icon8888 Csan the dividend question is easy to answer. 158 mil shares x 10 Sen is 16 mil RM

Not a big amount
22/01/2019 8:49 PM
Icon8888 Actually nobody knows. Only dksh management knows

A logical thing to do is to rationalise auric post acquisition. There are plenty of ways to do it. For example VSS to reduce workforce as dksh itself is expert in this kind of industry and doesn’t really need so many auric employees.

the major shareholder holds 74%. They have a lot at stake. I think they won’t do a dumb deal. They must have got all worked out before deciding



csan also to add to my first comment, earnings growth has started to become negative. even less reason to accept previous valuations.
22/01/2019 20:46
22/01/2019 8:59 PM
paperplane Icon, if really so damn good, why mgt not doing share buyback, look at. Myeg, without fail, everyday 2mil, damn crazy
22/01/2019 9:29 PM
Najib Zamry Icon8888, DKSH ‘S share price bashed down not due to Auric acquisition but more on the exclusion from Syariah Conpliance. You can see before Auric ‘S acquisition the share price already traded ae round 2.14 to 2.28
22/01/2019 9:45 PM
godhand dksh and its sad margin. it is cheap for a reason
22/01/2019 11:10 PM
paperplane Why they need to acquire new company? Have u ask yourself? Is it organic growth by itself too slow? Or is it some other reasons???
23/01/2019 12:41 AM
factorrumour at what price did u entered icon?
23/01/2019 1:15 AM
Icon8888 225
23/01/2019 6:05 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK
An Aid to your Stock Selection

COMPANY NAME: DKSH
DATE OF ANALYSIS: 22.1.2019

For each question below, answer YES or NO

NO QUESTIONS
1 Have Sales increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
2 Have Sales DOUBLED in 5 - 7 years? NO
3 Have Earnings per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
4 Have Earnings per Shares DOUBLED in 5 years? NO
5 Any Dividend paid during the past 5 years? YES
6 Has Dividend per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
7 Is current Operating Margin (OM) = or > 15%? NO
8 Over the past 3 years, is OM stable/increasing? YES
9 Is current Return on Equity (ROE) = or > 15%? NO
10 Over the past 3 years, is ROE stable/increasing? NO
11 Is current Long Term Debt less than 1/3 of Net Worth? YES
12 Are Current Assets TWICE the Current Liabilities? NO
13 Does Cash plus Receivables EQUAL OR EXCEED Current Liabilities? NO
14 Is Projected Growth in EPS and Dividends at 15%? NO
15 Is Current P/E in the range of past 5 years Average P/Es? YES
16 SUMMARY: Is the Stock Worthy of further Analysis? NO



YES 4
NO 12
23/01/2019 2:15 PM
Icon8888 that shows how stupid the checklist is

if the checklist is applied to DKSH before collapse at RM6, it is of course a NO NO NO lah

but if the checklist is applied to DKSH after the share price has declined by 50%, then it is a different story

the risk reward balance has shifted mah

that is exactly my point - don't blindly follow guidance prescribed by Famous Investors

use your own brain to think independently. God gives it to you for a reason
30/01/2019 9:47 AM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" that's why 3iii can only invest in that small universe stocks that meet the checklist. a very small sample.
30/01/2019 9:56 AM
Choivo Capital Hmm, id rather buy petronm. Better absolute opportunities. That's about it.

This article is quite balanced. I dont think it has pump and dump nature.
30/01/2019 9:59 AM

(Icon) Why I Bought Hengyuan and Petronm Recently

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 22 Jan 2019, 10:35 AM


Recently, I bought Hengyuan and Petronm. And I did it without even checking the crack spread. 

 

Why ? Isn't crack spread an important determinant of their profitability ? 

 

Yes, of course it is. But it is only important if you are a short term player.

 

If you put on the cap of a long term investor, you will think like this :-

 

(a) Hengyuan and Petronm are currently trading near their recent years low, so it is a good time to enter (less susceptible to sell down by early birds as there is simply no excesses there);

 

(b) PER is low (based on earning power);

 

(c) Crack spread goes up and down all the time. Why should you be bothered ? If it comes down and causes the company's profitability to drop drastically, it is likely to be a temporary blip. History shows that crackspread never stay depressed or elevated indefinitely. In a few quarters time, earning is likely to recover when spread reverses to the mean.

 

By saying so, I am putting what I have been preaching recently into practice : "Investing involves buying something that in the event that things turn sour, will ultimately recover if you hold on for a reasonable period of time." (something to that effect)

 

 

 

(d) But what are the criterias for picking Hengyuan and Petronm out of so many stocks in Bursa ?

 

Because they are established players in a robust industry. The quality is there (as far as I am concerned). Instead of putting my money in an ACE counter selling tickets to the moon, I am buying into companies with many years of track record, sizeable in scale, high entry barriers, well regulated by the government and plenty of room to grow (driven by demographics and growth in per capita income). The ACE counter might not be there in 3 years' time, but Hengyuan and Petronm will very likely still be there.        

 

In short, they are of investment grade quality.

 

(e) What is the gameplan ? How do you intend to make money out of them ?

 

Through organic growth !!! Crackspread will cause their profitability to fluctuate from quarter to quarter. In certain quarters, they might even dip into the red. But who cares ? Earning will ultimately rebound when spread normalised. Just ignore the volatility. It is merely paper loss, if it happens. 

 

Over an extended period of time, they will reinvest their earning, expand their network and capacity. If you come back 10 years later, they might have grown into sizes beyond your recognition. So will their profitability.

 

We are talking about investing mah. 

 

(f) How about moat ? Don't you want to check whether they have moat ?

 

Nah... moat is overrated. Many companies in Bursa do not have visible sign of moat. But many investors still make money out of them. As long as you have a good feel of how the company can evolve and grow over an extended period of time (in this case, together with the economy, without insane competition), they are good for investment.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

First of all, the major reason I bought into Hengyuan and Petronm is because they are trading at very low PER (based on earning power).

 

By taking a long term view, I cease to worry about the coming quarters result. Meaning I can just put them aside and get busy with other things in my life. This is the most basic definition of investing, isn't it ?

 

However, this is not applicable to all companies in Bursa. If you take exposure in a fly by night ACE counter, you better monitor it closely, because it can eventually go kaput.

 

Happy investing !!!

Labels: HENGYUAN, PETRONM
  8 people like this.
 
stockraider The concept is simple, if u ask a taxi driver which is better as a taxi benz or proton ??....everyone will say benz mah...!!

But after factoring the price....they decide to buy proton mah...!!

Same concept mah....do not overpay for quality loh...!!
22/01/2019 11:02 AM
probability not a good time to buy (yet)...especially hengyuan...in my opinion

investors need to make use of all visible information...including near terms i suppose
22/01/2019 11:06 AM
stockraider Raider says can start to nimble abit loh....!!

U only wallop big when big info visible confirm loh...!!

Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 11:06 AM | Report Abuse

not a good time to buy (yet)...especially hengyuan...in my opinion

investors need to make use of all visible information...including near terms i suppose
22/01/2019 11:09 AM
probability how if big info is available to short soon?
22/01/2019 11:14 AM
Choivo Capital Thanks Unker, i appreciate it. Send me an email, lets meet up if you're in KL.
====

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 22, 2019 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

learn a bit from you also, Ah Boy
22/01/2019 11:16 AM
Icon8888 wait for you to grow up first
22/01/2019 11:30 AM
value88 I am also tempted to buy PetronM..rather than Hengyuan. What makes me hesitate is PetronM's coming quarterly earnings may be poor due to poor crack spread in Oct-Dec'18 period and potential stock holding loss as oil price declined quite sharply during Oct-Dec'18 period.
22/01/2019 11:41 AM
value88 I am thinking to buy after PetronM reports its Oct-Dec'18 quarterly result by end Feb'19. I probably can get cheaper price then.
22/01/2019 11:43 AM
value88 Having said that, PetronM is indeed selling at low valuation and attractive at current price level.
22/01/2019 11:43 AM
stockraider U need to know Petron has not spend on any plant upgrade yet mah...once they spend on capex their financial will look bad loh...!!

Unless they decide to close down their refinery, then they can avoid the poor balance sheet loh...!!

Posted by value88 > Jan 22, 2019 11:41 AM | Report Abuse

I am also tempted to buy PetronM..rather than Hengyuan. What makes me hesitate is PetronM's coming quarterly earnings may be poor due to poor crack spread in Oct-Dec'18 period and potential stock holding loss as oil price declined quite sharply during Oct-Dec'18 period.


value88
383 posts
Posted by value88 > Jan 22, 2019 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I am thinking to buy after PetronM reports its Oct-Dec'18 quarterly result by end Feb'19. I probably can get cheaper price then.


value88
383 posts
Posted by value88 > Jan 22, 2019 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

Having said that, PetronM is indeed selling at low valuation and attractive at current price level.
22/01/2019 12:01 PM
qqq3 nasty surprises......like it or not, still have to check against possible nasty surprises......
22/01/2019 12:41 PM
qqq3 nasty surprises......like it or not, still have to check against possible nasty surprises......

that is why predictability is a valued commodity.
22/01/2019 12:44 PM
paperplane Great icon. Im looking still. Might join you later... Hehe
22/01/2019 12:46 PM
qqq3 $12? sure or not? This thing will eventually serve as production center and all the products send to China, subject to transfer pricing.....remember RAPIDS.

This thing is here not to make money for u minorities but to serve China.....
22/01/2019 2:23 PM
PotentialGhost Buy Petronm is right choose.
22/01/2019 3:26 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" After DKSH, Hengyuan, Petronm...waiting for more write-ups from Icon.
22/01/2019 3:49 PM
dusti OK if you have plan to distribute ANG POW
22/01/2019 4:00 PM
tftey Probably you can get at lower price by end February especially with Hengyuan
22/01/2019 4:27 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) 3 recommendations from icon8888 within the SAME day!

Must have more ideas than money to invest.




Between Hengyuan, PetronM and Petdag, which one do you prefer for the long term?
22/01/2019 5:39 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) What I gather from reading icon8888's post.

The crack spread margin is at its lowest. Crack spread margin is cyclical. Therefore these stocks are at their cyclical lows. Therefore, got margin of safety.
22/01/2019 5:42 PM
stockraider Use brain to think mah...!!

1. Crack is the lowest, it is best to buy bcos share price undemanding mah....it will usually normalise bcos it is cyclical mah...!!

2. margin of safety preposition : Come up a equivalent Plant like hengyuan, it will cost at least Rm 10 billion or more mah....!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 22, 2019 05:42 PM | Report Abuse

What I gather from reading icon8888's post.

The crack spread margin is at its lowest. Crack spread margin is cyclical. Therefore these stocks are at their cyclical lows. Therefore, got margin of safety.
22/01/2019 5:48 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C45852900


http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C458C1820


http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C45878390
22/01/2019 5:48 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.
22/01/2019 6:20 PM
stockraider but don overpay loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 22, 2019 06:20 PM | Report Abuse

Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.
22/01/2019 6:23 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) The ability to say NO is a tremendous advantage for an investor.
22/01/2019 6:24 PM
supersaiyan3 You broke my heart when you talk about warrant (unimech-wa?), you nearly killed me when you talk about priceworth....(and what’s wrong with you buying jaks-wa, no offence)

I am pleased you come back to the right path. Great move!
22/01/2019 6:25 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) 3 recommendations from icon8888 within the SAME day!

Must have more ideas than money to invest.






Much success in investing can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.
22/01/2019 6:27 PM
Alex™ don buy pls
22/01/2019 10:34 PM
Alex™ and also dun buy PE168 company
22/01/2019 10:34 PM
newbie8080 Good write up
23/01/2019 9:16 AM
GrahamNewman Munger once said his investing strategy is akin to "sit on your ass" investing. Indeed one had to do the legworks and have the right temperatement for this strategy to work, else they won't be able to sit alone in a room and think and left the room rather hurriedly when they hear some bad news.
23/01/2019 4:43 PM
Aseng icon888,

good buy . petronm is my wife
24/01/2019 10:16 AM
Aseng this year I got 4 wives that i will keep till end of the year to see whether it still takes good care of me or not , others just hit and run to test my lucks
petronm is one pf them . still reluctant to let go though the price seems disappointing but i really like its business model
24/01/2019 10:24 AM
Icon8888 Petronm better than hengyuan
24/01/2019 10:25 AM
Aseng better or not not better God know

I only know holding petronm can sleep well
24/01/2019 10:31 AM
Aseng as I grow older ,
sleep well is more important than seeing your big profit tomorrow
24/01/2019 10:33 AM
Icon8888 You don't need to be god to know

There are objective facts to substantiate

I don't simply say things
24/01/2019 10:36 AM
Aseng growing older doesn't mean no entertainment
hit and run is a good choice
win, you got the pleasure of a lucky bet in 4 ekors
lose , there is always a better next bet

right ?
24/01/2019 10:37 AM
Aseng ekovest , I like highway
petronm , refinery cum retailing
hibiscus, matched my pa-zhi
krono , big data
24/01/2019 10:40 AM
Icon8888 Ekovest I like also

Just a bit worry about PH asks them to cut construction margin

Just a bit worry
24/01/2019 10:44 AM
Aseng life is simple , just do or invest in what you like

when you are old , what you like comes first ,profit will come by itself

Mr market is crazy , if you think you understand what a crazy man thinks, then you will die hard standing

when your investing theory is simple , your life is simple
24/01/2019 10:45 AM
Aseng 1. you must believe PH that we had elected is a responsible government

2. it is ruled by the principle of "rule of laws" NOT " ruled by manifesto"

3. nation needs construction to build

4. No nation will kill a good businessman who bring in good tax

5. there is no enemy in politic , there is only good partners





Icon8888 Ekovest I like also

Just a bit worry about PH asks them to cut construction margin

Just a bit worry
24/01/2019 10:51 AM
Aseng Posted by Aseng > Jan 24, 2019 12:03 AM | Report Abuse X

Mr market is a crazy guy
If you think you understand what a crazy man think you will die hard standing at the end
The best is still dumb dumb hold a stock that worth RM1. 50 at the current price of 52 sen and do nothing but knowing we'll that Duke will generate more and more cash every quarter and worth more and more value as time go by.
24/01/2019 10:53 AM
Aseng Mr Market gives him a good and hot slap right on the face



Posted by qps9999 > Jan 24, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

EVOKEST condition is not good..tommrrow will go down
24/01/2019 10:55 AM
RainT EKOVEST is highway toll

WCEHB also is highway toll


Which one is better and good? EKOVEST or WCEHB?
24/01/2019 4:10 PM
Connie555 Oh mai god come back from vacation see my son at there PLP icon8888 again i buay tahan liao....


Aiyo I thought i am the only one feel like everything other than himself is unethical and cynical....let me remind u something son, please stop your PLP bullshit....please remember how u start the fire on everyone else included icon8888.....

but its ok, normal symtoms as investor always fail to remember the past or history....




Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 14, 2018 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=====


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
25/01/2019 12:21 AM
Nicholasming91 Hengyyuan ok la.. cash increase 600m,
25/01/2019 12:29 AM
paperplane Absent,I like all your picks
10/02/2019 4:29 AM
paperplane Aseng
10/02/2019 4:29 AM
leichongyui @icon8888, what is your opinion to Hengyuan now? Still good future ?
20/11/2019 8:19 AM

(Icon) What Is Investing ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sun, 20 Jan 2019, 2:42 PM


On 23 December 2015, I wrote that investing involves holding on to stocks for long term to enjoy compounded return, other stock market activities are at best "trading".

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/88514.jsp

 

===========================================================================

 

However, recently I have been reading extensively about Investment Gurus' works. One thing that shock me is that very few of them actually hold stocks forever. Contrarian investor John Neff sold his stock within months if they registered good return. Even Joel Greenblatt (KC Chong's favourite) also indulged in short term activities.

 

As long as can make money with proper consideration of risk, it is valid. No need to hold long, long term only to be considered legitimate.

 

 

I hereby declare :

 

"Investing should not be defined only as picking good stocks and holding forever to enjoy compounded return. Buying an overlooked stock to wait for market to rectify mispricing and hence provides opportunity to exit, is also considered investing. Even if it happens within few months. 

 

Short term activities should not be automatically frowned upon. Anything bought based on careful evaluation of value and proper reasoning, and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.

 

Holding period is totally irrelevant."

  5 people like this.
 
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Mr SSLee,

You are very interesting. You write well and certainly can go into great details into a stock.

If only your investing philosophy and strategy are safe and sound, given your diligence and effort, you can do well.

At present, I don't see much hope in your investing to date. Why spend so much time trying to repair a sinking ship, you are better off abandoning the ship and go into one that can take you to the desired destination? Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.

Would not it be better to attend an AGM where you praised the management for another great year of performance, take a few pictures with them and promise to see them again the next AGM? :-)
22/01/2019 8:26 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Where are the customers' yacht? Many do not even have a sampan after a lifelong period of investing in the stock market.
22/01/2019 8:28 PM
stockraider Probability,

Your suggestion have been all taken care mah....except left with 1 no balls fellow by name of 3iii, who talkcock everyday but do not take up challenge mah.....!!

Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 08:45 PM | Report Abuse

actually, we need a competition between all these sifus:

Icon, Raider, 3ii, Mr. Long, cute Jon, Sslee

I see Raider, Icon, Jon participated in i3 stock competition for 2019, i would like to see the rest to participate and create their own personal portfolio to prove their investment strategy, especially those could not give a clear thesis why their pick will perform well.

It is all very good discussion actually...never in i3 history we brainstorm on 'investment' like this before.

But as always, despite 6 pages of discussion i could not take away much.

Icon probably need to create another blog on the same subject to refine discussion further.
22/01/2019 9:21 PM
Sslee Dear Philip,
I quote, “You seem to be making the mistake that I am out to hunt down your beloved INSAS stock.” Make no mistake, I appreciate your different view and in fact I welcome it as I actually waiting to collect INSAS share at cheaper cost to me. But unfortunately when I present my case I need to speak the truth base on fact and figure contain in the annual report. Some of the very private information that I gather from my private meeting with newly appointed CEO, I kept it as P&C. I quote, “Insas is a founding shareholder of Inari 11 years ago and its original 51% equity interest in Inari has been diluted over the years primarily due to its IPO in 2011” how else to explain the INSAS Board capability in building up INARI to what it is today if not for the management prudent and foresight to spend few millions as seed money/burn rate (charge to P/L) to organic growth their business in different sector and working with renowned university and researcher to launch their patented products.

Also make no mistake, I am not out to hunt down your beloved “QL” I only present what is contain in the annual report as I feel even though QL is a great company but the current market price is too rich a valuation and perhaps you can relook into its valuation during the next quarter result and make you own decision whether you should cash out and invest in Nasdaq: STNE.

By the way I like to read yours and Jon Choivo articles as both of you are very well read and well versed in different methodology of investment and stock valuation, it’s a refreshing read. I thank you for contributing your articles to i3.

Dear 3iii,
I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.”
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices. My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year. My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history. My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX..

As of your question, “Would not it be better to attend an AGM where you praised the management for another great year of performance, take a few pictures with them and promise to see them again the next AGM?” My answer is not necessary since the company is already well run and manage, your words of praising would not add further value whereas your hard hitting and fact finding questions will make the board wake up, listening to you and you can see a sea change during the next AGM.

Thank you
22/01/2019 9:35 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>
SSLee

Dear 3iii,
I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.”
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices. My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year. My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history. My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX..

As of your question, “Would not it be better to attend an AGM where you praised the management for another great year of performance, take a few pictures with them and promise to see them again the next AGM?” My answer is not necessary since the company is already well run and manage, your words of praising would not add further value whereas your hard hitting and fact finding questions will make the board wake up, listening to you and you can see a sea change during the next AGM.

Thank you
>>>>>




This is investing. I take my investing very seriously.

I avoid lousy companies. In the long run, I am better off with companies with great businesses.

Given a company with poor economics and great management, the reputation of the company remains intact. Some businesses are just gruesome and generally will remain so even if the management are superb.

The opportunity cost of parking your money in a poor performer or loser is just too harmful for the finances of the careful investor.

If you have to be always actively prodding the management, that tells a lot too of the quality of the management and its alignment of their interest with the shareholders. For example, if the management embarks on cost cutting or cost efficiency, you should be happy and yet sad too. Why were they not cost efficient at all time?
22/01/2019 10:04 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 09:52 PM | Report Abuse

walao..sslee nicely whacked 3ii... >>>


A no body is cheering from the sideline. :-)
22/01/2019 10:05 PM
qqq3 sslee

told u not to attend so many lousy company AGM....at the end of the day who con who also don't know...One a novice, the other a seasoned con....easy to guess.
22/01/2019 10:07 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) SSLee

I have posted this one page quick analysis to screen for great companies.

Hope you can find this useful in your selection of great companies to invest into.
22/01/2019 10:08 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905009575.jsp


ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK
An Aid to your Stock Selection

COMPANY NAME:
DATE OF ANALYSIS:

For each question below, answer YES or NO

NO QUESTIONS
1 Have Sales increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years?
2 Have Sales DOUBLED in 5 - 7 years?
3 Have Earnings per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years?
4 Have Earnings per Shares DOUBLED in 5 years?
5 Any Dividend paid during the past 5 years?
6 Has Dividend per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years?
7 Is current Operating Margin (OM) = or > 15%?
8 Over the past 3 years, is OM stable/increasing?
9 Is current Return on Equity (ROE) = or > 15%?
10 Over the past 3 years, is ROE stable/increasing?
11 Is current Long Term Debt less than 1/3 of Net Worth?
12 Are Current Assets TWICE the Current Liabilities?
13 Does Cash plus Receivables EQUAL OR EXCEED Current Liabilities?
14 Is Projected Growth in EPS and Dividends at 15%?
15 Is Current P/E in the range of past 5 years Average P/Es?
16 SUMMARY: Is the Stock Worthy of further Analysis?
22/01/2019 10:09 PM
stockraider U understand investment or not ??

Who say insas is lousy when it sit on more than Rm 300m nett cash with NTA exceeding Rm 2.54 per share and with div yield of 3% pa loh...!!

The pe of insas is about 6x mah n for the past 10 yrs insas has been making monies loh...!!

Nestle maybe good company but it has a very high handicapped with its overvalue share price with PE 50x loh...!!

Imagine u r a good tennis player...but u handicapped by playing tennis on a wheel chair....the chances of u winning may not be good, even when u playing agst average players mah...!!

Insas hathway is Ben Graham share picked jewel with very big margin of safety Mah...!!

This is investing. I take my investing very seriously.

I avoid lousy companies. In the long run, I am better off with companies with great businesses.

Given a company with poor economics and great management, the reputation of the company remains intact. Some businesses are just gruesome and generally will remain so even if the management are superb.

The opportunity cost of parking your money in a poor performer or loser is just too harmful for the finances of the careful investor.

If you have to be always actively prodding the management, that tells a lot too of the quality of the management and its alignment of their interest with the shareholders. For example, if the management embarks on cost cutting or cost efficiency, you should be happy and yet sad too. Why were they not cost efficient at all time?
22/01/2019 10:17 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>>Dear 3iii,
I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.” <<<

>>>>
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices.
>>>>


You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more.


>>> My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year.>>>

>>>>My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history.>>>>

>>>> My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX.. >>>>


One of the characteristic of a successful investor is to know the stocks to avoid.

You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong. An example: Mr. 1015.


Before adding a new investment, consider adding to the old ones that already are in your portfolio. If a business is attractive enough for you to buy once, it may well pay to repeat the process.
22/01/2019 10:25 PM
stockraider One of Successful investment characteristic of Ben Graham is to buy undervalue with big margin of safety in order to take advantage of soochai Mr market Mah....!!

And to continue repeat this successful formula mah....!!

And insas is the best example of a good value investment buy loh...!!

And do not make the mistake to buy overvalue stock with PE 50x and let mr market taking advantage of u loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 22, 2019 10:25 PM | Report Abuse

>>>>Dear 3iii,

I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.” <<<

>>>>
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices.
>>>>


You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more.


>>> My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year.>>>

>>>>My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history.>>>>

>>>> My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX.. >>>>


One of the characteristic of a successful investor is to know the stocks to avoid.

You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong. An example: Mr. 1015.

Before adding a new investment, consider adding to the old ones that already are in your portfolio. If a business is attractive enough for you to buy once, it may well pay to repeat the process.
22/01/2019 10:38 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>Posted by stockraider > Jan 22, 2019 10:38 PM | Report Abuse

One of Successful investment characteristic of Ben Graham is to buy undervalue with big margin of safety in order to take advantage of soochai Mr market Mah....!! <<<


Your "investing" into Hengyuan and many other stocks did not suggest you know the teachings of Ben Graham well.

Don't kid yourself with this Ben Graham's teachings.
22/01/2019 10:43 PM
stockraider Based on Hengyuan situation what are the lessons we can learn from there leh ??

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!
22/01/2019 10:49 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Somehow, I sense probability does not like me. :-)

Perhaps it has something to do with my investing. Haha.


The stock does not even know that I own it. :-)
22/01/2019 11:01 PM
qqq3 probability....must be a remisier....hates long term.....
22/01/2019 11:12 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>Probability posted (subsequently deleted) thus, and I asked...

Blog: Is QL Resources worth investing now? kcchongnz
Jan 19, 2019 05:17 PM | Report Abuse

>>>>
probability what 3ii makes in 10 years ...raider makes in 1 year...

of course sour grape...become toxic grape lor...
19/01/2019 16:39

probability never believe anyone who talks like a professor...without any hard facts lor....

if you dig deep inside...their actions are all fundamentally controlled by emotions like jealousy and greed lor...no matter how rational they try to sell their arguments....

take Jon Choivo, 3iii, Long number, whoever u want...

all are controlled by emotions...
19/01/2019 16:43>>>>>



Probability speaks.


Facts?

Emotion? >>>



>>>>
Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 10:04 AM | Report Abuse X

>>>>
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 08:45 AM | Report Abuse

3iii is one of the respectable i3 members on the platform. I remember those days where almost everybody went crazy over Hengyuan asset value. 3iii and Ricky were the two whom kept their sanity. To this day, I still look upon 3iii especially when he successfully countered stockraider , probability & co bullishness. To keep a cool mind under a rising market is not easy. It is even more impressive when you could counter them with facts.


Flintstones
1632 posts
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 08:48 AM | Report Abuse

To study a typical boom-bust cycle on i3, please go to Hengyuan forum and read all posts from 2017-2018. The amount of brain power put into the analysis of Hengyuan is unmatched. We had many smart guys trying to predict Hengyuan quarterly profits which were futile in the end. We also had some value guys giving Hengyuan a RM 50 target price which is theoretically sensible due to the replacement cost. But, cyclical is a cyclical. It is a huge lesson and many long time i3 members chose to brush it off like nothing happened as if the pain and shame was too hard to bear.
>>>


Thanks.

This is an open forum.

The thing about investing is in every transaction, there is a buyer and a seller, each looking at the share differently and from their own perspective.

Well, the saying goes ... you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Until then, it was one hell of a party. You can still feel the pulsations in some of the posts, for example, that of probability. By his own admission, he is no body. ?


>>>>>
22/01/2019 11:12 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>
qqq3 probability....must be a remisier....hates long term.....
22/01/2019 23:12<<<<


I did ask.

Never ask a barber if you need a hair-cut.
22/01/2019 11:13 PM
qqq3 probability...artificial ? don't like artificial? King of artificial is Raider and SS lee...thanks you with every post...artificial enough or not?
22/01/2019 11:13 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>> Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 11:14 PM | Report Abuse

for a long term man...no need to be so concern on short term movements ma...

anyway..let him share what he wants...just that he does not need to condemn others i think..

thats the missing thing <<<


Please reign in your emotions.

You were the one who posted some comments thus which I replied.

>>>Probability posted (subsequently deleted) thus, and I asked...

Blog: Is QL Resources worth investing now? kcchongnz
Jan 19, 2019 05:17 PM | Report Abuse >>>


Interestingly you probably felt unwarranted and deleted them.
22/01/2019 11:20 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Have a positive attitude. Stay with the issues, ignore the person.
22/01/2019 11:21 PM
qqq3 probability...

over a life time...in the long run....only those who learn to say NO can make money from the stock market........REMEMBER THAT.
22/01/2019 11:23 PM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
I quote, “You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more”

Investment philosophy: Looking for stocks that give reasonable dividend yield and capital appreciation. (A bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush). Understand that in order to beg a 10 bagger needs patience to wait for next market crash. (If it occurs I am prepare, if it doesn’t happen I am fine with my current investment) Note: 1/3 in stock market investment, 1/3 with my wife FD and another 1/3 in my FD account. Debt free, still have my full time pay job, my two sons already working and my daughter 1st year in Sunway University (Mass communication and art of advertisement). Isn’t that fulfilling my duty to my family and careful with my finance?

Life philosophy: Do not stay still in your circle of competent/comfort zone needs to constantly challenge your limit. Past success do not guarantee future success and past failure do not mean future failure as long as you are prepared to learn from all and re-examines your mistakes/method. So now I am learning from you can you teach me how to value INSAS just base on INARI alone (19.1% of associate company of INSAS) contributed RM 40.15 million dividends to INSAS FYR2018. How much it’s worth to INSAS?

Note: You can look into INARI Top 30 shareholders and tell me all these big Funds, will they invest in INARI if they do not believe in INARI sustainable growth story. Isn’t those miss the boat during INARI growing year should grab the opportunity now by investing in INSAS at the lower costs to them?

Thank you
22/01/2019 11:54 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) In investing, you can usually analyse the stocks quickly to see if you like them or not. Just like Buffett, you generally can make a decision in less than 5 minutes.

Those stocks you wish to be involved with, you will dwell deeper.
22/01/2019 11:58 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK
An Aid to your Stock Selection

COMPANY NAME: INSAS
DATE OF ANALYSIS: 23.1.2019

For each question below, answer YES or NO

NO QUESTIONS
1 Have Sales increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
2 Have Sales DOUBLED in 5 - 7 years? NO
3 Have Earnings per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
4 Have Earnings per Shares DOUBLED in 5 years? NO
5 Any Dividend paid during the past 5 years? YES
6 Has Dividend per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
7 Is current Operating Margin (OM) = or > 15%? YES
8 Over the past 3 years, is OM stable/increasing? YES
9 Is current Return on Equity (ROE) = or > 15%? NO
10 Over the past 3 years, is ROE stable/increasing? NO
11 Is current Long Term Debt less than 1/3 of Net Worth? YES
12 Are Current Assets TWICE the Current Liabilities? YES
13 Does Cash plus Receivables EQUAL OR EXCEED Current Liabilities? YES
14 Is Projected Growth in EPS and Dividends at 15%? NO
15 Is Current P/E in the range of past 5 years Average P/Es? NO
16 SUMMARY: Is the Stock Worthy of further Analysis? NO


YES 6
NO 10
23/01/2019 12:10 AM
stockraider Put it this way loh...3iii continue to bad mouth ben graham margin of safety, despite warren buffet highly respect ben graham mah...!!

U look at Insas criteria...it exactly fall into Ben graham investment criteria mah...!!

Sslee selection of insas is a very fine safe selection mah....although not type of growth stock....it is huge undervalue stock mah...!!

For growth stock ur expectation is to continue growth to sustain the share price whereas for undervalue stock, what u need is just a rerating of confidence that will push the stock price up to reach a reasonable value from highly undervalue mah...!!

Insas is a profitable co, huge cash holding, pays reasonable div, huge discount to nta, all these is highly positive factors for rerating criteria loh...!!

3iii has been acting wrongly to deceive a safety investor like ssleee loh...scaring him like he will lose his family & wealth mah...!!

In fact, if sslee will to change his system, like buying into QL or Nestle, raider think the risk is even higher bcos he is chasing overvaluation loh..!!

Remember sslee investment value investment approach, that people like 3iii and Mr Long thought it is short term trading but it is a genuine investment using share valuation to take advantage of Mr Market folly mah..!!
In fact Warren Buffet has been using this method for a long time successfully loh....!!

Buffet change to long term hold of late, bcos his fund has grown too big mah..!
I read one of buffet comment, he can even get higher return, if he does not manage such a large funds loh...!!

Meaning if he use his old ways of investment based on margin of safety, he can even get even higher return loh...!!
23/01/2019 12:49 AM
qqq3 raid...I don't have to know the Big Ben to know legends don't get himself involved with third liners......
23/01/2019 12:52 AM
stockraider U don understand loh...Ben Graham buy alot of 3rd liners as long as it is highly undervalue following his margin of safety criteria mah..!!

Traders like u really don understand loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 12:52 AM | Report Abuse

raid...I don't have to know the Big Ben to know legends don't get himself involved with third liners......
23/01/2019 12:56 AM
qqq3 when legends get involved with third liners, they take over the company, not sit passively to be screwed.
23/01/2019 8:33 AM
qqq3 when legends get involved with third liners, they take over the company, not sit passively to be screwed.....like City of London, screwed by icap for > 5 years already.
23/01/2019 8:35 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>Posted by Sslee > Jan 22, 2019 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

Dear 3iii,
I quote, “You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more”

Investment philosophy: Looking for stocks that give reasonable dividend yield and capital appreciation. (A bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush). Understand that in order to beg a 10 bagger needs patience to wait for next market crash. (If it occurs I am prepare, if it doesn’t happen I am fine with my current investment) Note: 1/3 in stock market investment, 1/3 with my wife FD and another 1/3 in my FD account. Debt free, still have my full time pay job, my two sons already working and my daughter 1st year in Sunway University (Mass communication and art of advertisement). Isn’t that fulfilling my duty to my family and careful with my finance? <<<<


Sslee

How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?
23/01/2019 8:47 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>>Note: 1/3 in stock market investment, 1/3 with my wife FD and another 1/3 in my FD account.<<<<



From my observation, you are better to work with a financial advisor.
23/01/2019 8:48 AM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
Thank you for your: “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK” I am busy with my daily full time job can I ask you a favor please scan thro’ bursa and list down the most yes answers and with PE below 20 even better if I can get QL PE below 10 during 2010-2009 or close to your NESTLE PE when you first bought into it. I will then invest RM200K and continues top up every quarter for next 40 quarter into 2 million shares by 2029.

Quote from Mr. Philip, “Now, I must admit, when you see the QL director himself Mr Chia be at the site 1 hour before you wake up, you become very respectful and clear about the quality of management. And so after chinese new year of 2009 after company bonus when I bought RM200K worth of QL----That was when I knew I had to look at QL deeper. Reading into the financial reports, it was very high pe (around 29 if i remember correctly), but the free cash flow, the growth in revenue, and the speed of implementation. I attended AGM. read into the competitors. “
I remember shaking mr chia song kun hand and actually having a talk with him regarding his policies and strategies. Very humble and hands on man who wakes up at 5 and goes to site directly early morning. If I could have him working for me I thought, I'd never lose a nights sleep.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/7084.jsp?type=last10fy

As of your question, “How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?”
My answer none so far. But I can foreseen my fortune going for a sea change if you and Mr. Philip can recommend stocks as you stated that fulfilled your “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK”
I am eagerly looking forward to your recommendation, hope you don’t disappointed me.

My thousand thanks.
23/01/2019 9:19 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) >>
Dear 3iii,
Thank you for your: “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK” I am busy with my daily full time job can I ask you a favor please scan thro’ bursa and list down the most yes answers and with PE below 20 even better if I can get QL PE below 10 during 2010-2009 or close to your NESTLE PE when you first bought into it. I will then invest RM200K and continues top up every quarter for next 40 quarter into 2 million shares by 2029.<<<


I am sharing to show another side of investing.

>>>>
As of your question, “How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?”
My answer none so far. But I can foreseen my fortune going for a sea change if you and Mr. Philip can recommend stocks as you stated that fulfilled your “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK”
I am eagerly looking forward to your recommendation, hope you don’t disappointed me.

My thousand thanks.
>>>>>


I share my philosophy and strategy.
Sorry, I never ask people to buy or sell.
They have to do their own hard work.
Regards
23/01/2019 3:09 PM
stockraider As usual this no balls 3iii avoiding a direct stock pick request from sslee loh....!!

Why leh ??? Basically this 3iii no balls loh...!!

If he make a statement n make a stock call....if successful he has bragging rights mah...!! But he miss this opportunity mah..!!

Despite this 3iii....talkcock everyday & bragging of his growth stock, but when confronted with a challenge this 3iii chicken out loh...!!

Why chicken leh ??

This 3iii no confidence with his system mah, he is afraid people laugh at him if fail loh....!!

He is not that smart & not that bold loh...!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 23, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse
>>
Dear 3iii,
Thank you for your: “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK” I am busy with my daily full time job can I ask you a favor please scan thro’ bursa and list down the most yes answers and with PE below 20 even better if I can get QL PE below 10 during 2010-2009 or close to your NESTLE PE when you first bought into it. I will then invest RM200K and continues top up every quarter for next 40 quarter into 2 million shares by 2029.<<<

I am sharing to show another side of investing.

>>>>
As of your question, “How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?”
My answer none so far. But I can foreseen my fortune going for a sea change if you and Mr. Philip can recommend stocks as you stated that fulfilled your “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK”
I am eagerly looking forward to your recommendation, hope you don’t disappointed me.

My thousand thanks. >>>>>

I share my philosophy and strategy.
Sorry, I never ask people to buy or sell.
They have to do their own hard work.
Regards
23/01/2019 3:46 PM
probability investing is capitalist way of creating a pyramid scheme to cheat the poor who are slaves of their reproductive organs to copulate and reproduce for future consumption...
23/01/2019 3:53 PM
stockraider In a way some truth loh....!!

But if u worry about this issue, why don u make a point to check the director remunerations b4 buying the stock leh ??

Posted by 如鱼得水 > Jan 23, 2019 03:51 PM | Report Abuse

investing is giving money to companies director to live a luxury life... n u yourself go Holland drink tulip juice..
23/01/2019 3:54 PM
probability in a world without capitalism...all production should equal consumption...and there should not be left over, excess of production (retention) for justifying future growth in consumption.....


it should be pure barter

the music will stop when population awakens like the japanese...

and its the duty of all economist, politician and businessman...to keep the music on...

the show must go on
23/01/2019 3:58 PM
qqq3 investing is selling dreams and hope....

everyone needs dreams and hope.
23/01/2019 3:59 PM
stockraider Correctloh....think & grow rich are all base on the blind faith of hope mah......!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 03:59 PM | Report Abuse

investing is selling dreams and hope....

everyone needs dreams and hope.
23/01/2019 4:00 PM
qqq3 don't buy from Thong Kok Kee.....its a night mare he is selling....
23/01/2019 4:03 PM
stockraider He is a change man of late mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 04:03 PM | Report Abuse

don't buy from Thong Kok Kee.....its a night mare he is selling....
23/01/2019 4:07 PM
qqq3 selling raider hope.
23/01/2019 4:08 PM
stockraider It is not hope u can see for yourself the success mah....!!

1. Just inari 19% that insas own is more than exceed the whole insas mkt capitalization loh...!!

2. Insas is sitting on a nett cash of Rm 300m mah...!! He did not sapu any monies loh...!!

3, Recently insas pays decent div with yield of around 3% pa this is even higher than nestle div yield of only 2.5% pa.

4. He has grown insas NTA to rm 2.54 per share and he has steer insas to a track record of 10 yr annual growth of shareholder fund without fail loh...!!

5. He has help insas to achieve a decent latest eps which resulted insas having an attractive PE of 6x loh...!!

6. He even relinquish his executive position to allow his captain Mr Wong to take charge of Insas loh...!!

Mr Thong is one can be consider one of the best 5 star ivy league investment banker, the best msia ever had loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 04:08 PM | Report Abuse

selling raider hope.
23/01/2019 4:20 PM
qqq3 ask them to give u some Inari shares la.
23/01/2019 4:27 PM
stockraider i m comfortable they can create more & more value on inari...no need to so kencheong bcos they only own 19% mah...when the right time come insas share price can double or even triple when they decide to distribute inari share mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

ask them to give u some Inari shares la.
23/01/2019 4:33 PM
qqq3 will not be long before your Insas is a PE 50 stock at 70 sen ......and without any path to growth..........guarantee.
23/01/2019 5:06 PM
stockraider Insas investment strategy is not growth but fair value rerating due to insas share price huge discount to its fair value mah...!!

It is totally diff from Growth investment loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 05:05 PM | Report Abuse

will not be long before your Insas is a PE 50 stock......and without any path to growth..........guarantee.
23/01/2019 5:08 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) Benjamin Graham, the founding father of value investing, was the first to recognize the quality problem among equities back in the 1930s.

- Graham classified stocks as either Quality or Low Quality.

- He also observed that the greatest losses result not from buying quality at an excessively high price, but from buying Low Quality at a price that seems good value.
24/01/2019 8:35 AM
stockraider With the fast recovery of inari share price, there maybe a fair chance that insas, could be a technology growth stock too, bcos of vast insas exposure on inari....the investment of insas on inari has appreciated more than the whole insas capitalization mah....!!

Just sit n relax and watch the opportunity of insas, the best margin of safety stock....insas hathaway loh...!!

U can just buy insas instead of inari mah....!!
26/01/2019 12:18 PM

(Icon) MBM Resources (2) - The Myth About Associate Stake

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 3 Jan 2019, 4:03 PM


One of the biggest myth I encounter throughout my investing and professional career is the nature of associate stake.

 

There is a widespread belief that associate stake is merely accounting profit. You can't access the cash flow. In other words, can see but cannot touch.

 

For example, qqq3's comments today :

 

 

Is that true ? Before I even go into details to disprove the myth, let me just ask you a simple question :

 

You buy 1,000 Maybank shares, do you have control ? You don't, right ? But do you get dividend from Maybank ? Yes, you do.

 

The same is true for associate stake. Between 2010 and 2018, MBM Resources received a total of RM515 mil dividend from its Perodua associate stake, equivalent to RM57 mil per annum.

 

That is how it looked like in the accounts (FY2017 and FY2016, for illustration purpose) :

 

 

Based on 391 mil shares, the average dividend of RM57 mil received is equivalent to RM0.15 per share per annum, which could be used to pay dividend to MBM Resources shareholders. (The highest dividend ever paid by MBM Resources is RM0.17 per share in FY2015.)

 

As for "control", that is a non issue, in my opinion. Perodua has a stable and diversified shareholding structure, held by UMW, MBM, Daihatsu, PNB and Mitsui.

 

These are all very strong shareholders. Check and balance is hence not an issue. There is no need to have dominant stake. Anyway, it is a common practice to have Shareholders' Agreement to govern the operations. The Perodua group in its current structure has been in existence since 1994. So far there is no issue of shareholders conflict.  

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

Far from just accounting profit, MBM's 22% associate stake in Perodua is packed with flesh and blood and generates real economic benefit. Every year it contributes more than RM50 mil cash inflow to MBM Resources, which in turn is distributed to reward loyal shareholders. 

Labels: MBMR
  Icon8888 likes this.
 
qqq3 Posted by qqq3 > Jan 3, 2019 04:04 PM | Report Abuse X

as for Jaks and IPP....no worries...IPP got very high dividend payout ratios and Jaks will not suffer similar fate.

Perodua....about 40% dividend payout ratio...no wonder PE ratis below average

Jaks IPP....IPP normally 90% to 100% payout ratio.......here, expect normal PEs.
03/01/2019 4:11 PM
Icon8888 I hope you are right qqq3 ! I wish Jaks pay out handsome dividend also
03/01/2019 4:13 PM
qqq3 I say IPP high dividends....Jaks don't know la....that depends on Andy.......
03/01/2019 4:15 PM
Icon8888 wait... jaks also owns associate stake in IPP.

then that is similar as MBM, right ?

LOL

(lets see how qqq3 argue back)
03/01/2019 4:17 PM
abang_misai don't dream too much Icon uncle. Please always remember every company is different. No hope on Jaks. I already elaborated to you. It's up to you to accept what I said. I can only say I know their characters better than you.
03/01/2019 9:39 PM


 

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