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Author: Icon8888   |   Latest post: Fri, 1 May 2020, 1:45 PM

 

(Icon) Jaks Resources - IRR Model Shows That RM300 mil Net Profit p.a. For 30% Stake Is Plausible

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 1 May 2020, 1:45 PM


1. Introduction

 

Jaks is closed to completing the Hai Duong power plant. So far, two major pieces of information attracted my attention : (1) expected net profit of at least RM200 mil p.a. for its 30% stake, and (2) Internal Rate of Return of 12% (IRR).

 

 

Can these two pieces of information be reconciled ? To find out, I built an IRR model to test things out. To my surprise, they fit each other very well, without even needing me to massage the figures.

 

 

2. Internal Rate of Return

 

For those not familiar with IRR, please refer to the following :

 

 

Net Present Value is the sum of the discounted free cash flow of a project over its expected lifespan. In the equation, Co will be the negative cashflow to be incurred by Hai Duong during the construction period. Based on construction cost of RM7.5 bil (USD1.87 bil and exchange rate of 4) and construction period of 3 years, Co will be RM2.493 bil per annum (for 3 years). C1 will be the free cash flow of Hai Duong in first year of operation (positive) while C2 will be the free cash flow for year 2 (positive), and so on (until year 25).

 

IRR is the discount rate that will lead NPV to become ZERO (Note : Co is a negative number while C1 to 25 is positive, so at certain discount rate, it is possible to cause the equation to end up with value of Zero).  

 

For more information, please buy this Kindle Book and flip to page 115.

 

 

 

 

3. Principal Assumptions

 

Based on publicly available information and input and exchange of ideas from many i3 forum members, we know of the following (roughly) :

 

(Capex)

Total capex for the power plant is USD1.87 bil. Based on USD : RM exchange rate of 4 to 1, that is equivalent to RM7.5 bil.

 

(Loan)

Assuming debt funding of 75%, total loan is RM5.6 bil. 

 

Based on assumed interest rate of 5% (average) and repayment period of 15 years, the debt profile will look like this :

 

 

Key observations : 

 

(a) based on 15 years repayment period, annual repayment is RM374 mil.

 

(b) in year 1, Hai Duang's interest payment is RM281 mil. However, as debt get progressively pared down, interest expenses also gradually decline. By year 15, it would have dropped to RM19 mil only.

The declining interest expense will of course have a positive impact on profitability.

 

(In real life, debt is likely to be repayed in tranches. But for discussion sake, we just stick to this simplistic straight line assumption and finetune later if necessary. My hunch is that the difference will not be material).

 

(Depreciation Charges)

Based on depreciation period of 22 years (25 years concession, 3 years construction, 22 years operation), annual depreciation charges is RM340 mil.

 

(Tax)

I was made to understand that the IPP is tax free for first 4 years, 5% for subsequent 9 years and 10% thereafter.

 

(Profit After Tax)

Many investors are expecting net profit of at least RM200 mil for Jaks' 30% stake in Hai Duong (ignore the anaylsts, they will start upgrading when Jaks share price goes to RM2.00).

 

Working backwards, Hai Duong's annual net profit would be RM667 mil (100% stake).

 

The PAT figure is not something plucked from the air. It is a consensus formed by investors after studying profitability figures of already completed Vietnam IPPs as well as projects in other countries such as MFCB and YTL Power in Laos and Jordan respectively. 

 

I played with the IRR model by using PAT beginning from RM667 mil (translating into RM200 mil for 30% stake). It turns out that this level of profit will only generate IRR of approximately 8%. I gradually increase the profitability. Eventually at about RM1,060 mil, IRR becomes 12%. This translates into net profit of RM318 mil for Jaks' 30% stake.

 

 

4. Cashflow Projection (and Profit as well)

 

To derive the cashflow projection over next 22 years, we need to first figure out the EBITDA for year 1.

 

As mentioned in previous section, PAT and tax rate for year 1 is assumed to be RM1,060 mil and zero respectively. Hence, PBT is same as PAT (RM1,060 mil).

 

Meanwhile, interest expense and depreciation charges for year 1 is RM281 mil and RM340 mil respectivelty.

 

As such, EBITDA for year 1 = RM1,060 mil + RM281 mil + RM340 mil = RM1,681 mil (Reminder : this represents 100% equity interest) 

 

How about year 2 onwards ? Well, since Hai Duong is an IPP backed by concession, EBITDA throughout the entire period should be more or less the same (in real life, inflation will have an impact, causing EBITDA to trend downwards at let's say, 3% per annum).

 

After factoring in all the above, the profit and cashflow projection will be as follows :

 

 

As shown in table above, Hai Duong's profit will be approximatelty RM1,060 mil per annum (translating into RM318 mil for Jaks' 30% stake). I am not interested in dwelling too much on the figures. The purpose of this article is to study the cashflow and IRR. As long as profit is approximately RM200 mil to RM300 mil for Jaks, I am happy already. So lets' just move on.

 

 

According to the table above, free cash flow is approximately RM1,000 mil per annum. This is not surprising. If profit is RM1,060 mil, the items that differentiate it from cashflow is depreciation charges and loan repayment. Since both figures are more or less the same (depreciaton charges is RM340 mil while loan repayment is RM374 mil), free cash flow will more or less be the same as net profit.  (quick check !!)

 

 

5. IRR

 

The IRR model is as follows :

 

 

 

 

As shown above, after investing RM7.5 bil over 3 years, to generate IRR of 12%, Hai Duong's free cash flow per annum must be approximately RM1 bil per annum.

 

This will translate into net profit of approximately RM1 bil per annum (as explained above, depreciation and loan repayment related figures offset each other). Based on 30% stake, Jaks' portion will be approximately RM300 mil per annum (to be precise, RM318 mil in FY2021). 

 

 

6. Concluding Remarks

 

My financial modeling shows that Jaks' 30% stake can potentially deliver net profit of RM318 mil per annum when both units are operational in FY2021. This level of net profit is truly impressive. But is it too good to be true ?

 

Not necessarily.

 

There are two possible reasons why the profitability of Hai Duong can be so strong.

 

First of all, Jaks initiated the Hai Duong project back in 2008. Vietnam was badly affected by the Global Financial Crisis then (I can remember Gamuda was heavily sold down because it has property projects in Vietnam). To attract investors, Vietnam could have offered relatively attractive terms to balance out the perceived risk. 

 

Secondly, the Ringgit has depreciated substantially in recent few years. When Jaks firmed up the concession agreement (in 2011 ?), the USD Ringgit exchange rate was 3.2. It has now declined to 4.2, a drop of 31%.

 

If you take RM318 mil and divide by 4.2, you will get USD75 mil. Based on exchange rate of 3.2 then, the profit attributable to Jaks' 30% is RM240 mil only (being USD75 mil x 3.2), a much lower level. The Vietnamese government was not as dumb and wasteful as it looked when come to awarding concession projects. 

 

 

Labels: JAKS
  18 people like this.
 
DK Icon8888, Well done. A very detailed analysis using IRR.

However, I wish to point out that the 25 years concession begins after COD, not including construction period.

------------------
(Depreciation Charges)
Based on depreciation period of 22 years (25 years concession, 3 years construction, 22 years operation), annual depreciation charges is RM340 mil.
01/05/2020 2:31 PM
Icon8888 Ok I will amend accordingly

Any other mistake ? Please help me identify
01/05/2020 2:31 PM
OTB Dear Icon8888,
During the planning stage, the utilization hours used for planning purpose was 6,500.
After the plant is completed, the correct utilization hours used should be 7,238 (same as Vinh Tan 1 power plant). Hence IRR should be 15% instead of 12%.
7,238 utilization hours is confirmed by the management of Jaks to me after checking with CPECC engineers.
Please take note.
Thank you.
01/05/2020 2:37 PM
Icon8888 Wow thanks !
01/05/2020 2:41 PM
DK On depreciation, there is no clear indication that reducing balance method of amortisation should be used. Straight line method is still most widely adopted

"The most appropriate method of amortisation of the intangible asset is usually the straight-line method, unless another method better reflects the pattern of consumption of the asset’s future economic benefits. However, in some circumstances, where the expected pattern of consumption of the expected economic benefi ts is based on usage, it may be appropriate to use an alternative method of amortisation." - IFRIC 12

In any case, the new international accounting standard will not allow power plant asset to be recognised as "concession asset" anymore. The asset shall be recorded as Loan receivables and repayment will more or less reflect a straight line pattern.
01/05/2020 2:44 PM
DK Icon8888 is right to include interest expense as Project IRR is working on Net cash flow based on the planned debt equity structure.
01/05/2020 2:48 PM
probability Is that the reason why Vinh Tan 1 can only generate profit after 18 years?


https://www.vir.com.vn/vinh-tan-1-gearing-up-for-operation-61958.html


When will the Vinh Tan 1 thermal power plant start generating profits?

Operating under the BOT format, the project boasts around $1.75 billion in total investment capital, 80 per cent of which is sourced from a consortium of several international banks. If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.


Posted by popo92 > May 1, 2020 2:25 PM | Report Abuse

icon8888 sifu, your assumptions on depreciation is very wrong. Depreciation costs are usually higher at first and decreasing year by year. suggest you may look for some info on IFRIC 12. Basically when factor in Depreciation & amortisation you will get a completely different figure, but i am not sure we can able to see them one day since jaks only have 30% minority stake in this power plant. Track record of integrity is not on the right side for jaks management.
01/05/2020 2:49 PM
Icon8888 Thanks for your input, unfortunately I am not able to either agree to it or refute it as I have not seen this before

If you can provide me with the relevant theoretical reasoning (an article or pages of the textbook), then I will be able to make a better decision whether to revise the model


probability
11405 posts
Posted by probability > May 1, 2020 2:29 PM | Report Abuse

I think you should exclude the Interest deduction on your FCF used to show the IRR of 12%.

Project IRR is assuming the whole asset is funded without Debt - 100% equity.
....

Will go through in detail and find out why its not matching my derivation of about 140M profit/annum with 2 units operating.
01/05/2020 2:51 PM
DK icon8888, the loan tenure should be 18 years which is maximum allowed by the vietnam government. This is why vinh tan 1 cited 18 years to fully pay off all debts.
01/05/2020 2:52 PM
probability @DK66, i have seen many articles on the vietnam power plant IRR, they always exclude the Interest when calculating the project IRR which most say only 12%.

anyway, i am not from financial background to assert this.


http://infrastructure-projectfinance.blogspot.com/2013/11/project-irr-vs-equity-irr.html

Project IRR vs Equity IRR

The project IRR takes as its inflows the full amount(s) of money that are needed in the project. The outflows are the cash generated by the project. The IRR is the internal rate of return of these cash flows. The calculation assumes that no debt is used for the project.

Equity IRR assumes that you use debt for the project, so the inflows are the cash flows required minus any debt that was raised for the project. The outflows are cash flows from the project minus any interest and debt repayments. Hence, equity IRR is essentially the “leveraged” version of project IRR.

Generally Equity IRR is more than project IRR and the equity IRR will be lower than the project IRR whenever the cost of debt exceeds the project IRR.

Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 2:48 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 is right to include interest expense as Project IRR is working on Net cash flow based on the planned debt equity structure.
01/05/2020 2:54 PM
Icon8888 Does a project have to fully repay borrowings before it can generate profit ?

I find the statement weird

————

probability : If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.
01/05/2020 2:55 PM
Icon8888 DK66 noted your 18 years tenure
01/05/2020 2:56 PM
DK Mong duong II and vinh Tan 1 reported profit immediately upon COD
01/05/2020 2:57 PM
popo92 DK66 sifu, this IFRIC 12 is actually introduced on 2008, but it doesn't adopted since lately years. So far i have not seen any BOT concession is still using straight-line method. Thank you for pointing out power plant asset cannot be recognised as concession asset under new international accounting standard. i didn't acknowledge that, could you send me any useful links for me to read? thank you

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

On depreciation, there is no clear indication that reducing balance method of amortisation should be used. Straight line method is still most widely adopted

"The most appropriate method of amortisation of the intangible asset is usually the straight-line method, unless another method better reflects the pattern of consumption of the asset’s future economic benefits. However, in some circumstances, where the expected pattern of consumption of the expected economic benefi ts is based on usage, it may be appropriate to use an alternative method of amortisation." - IFRIC 12

In any case, the new international accounting standard will not allow power plant asset to be recognised as "concession asset" anymore. The asset shall be recorded as Loan receivables and repayment will more or less reflect a straight line pattern.
01/05/2020 2:59 PM
probability @DK66, its the Dividend distribution you are saying here right?

They can take that out from their huge depreciation / capital payment i suppose..

what certainty is there that it will be a continuous stream of dividend every quarter?

Mong Duong 2 did not even declare dividend last quarter.

If thats the case for JAKS - will that result as a zero income on a particular quarter where they did not receive cash distribution from Hai Duong power plant?



Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 2:57 PM | Report Abuse

Mong duong II and vinh Tan 1 reported profit immediately upon COD
01/05/2020 3:03 PM
Icon8888 somebody mentioned recently (I forgot who) that upon COD, Hai Duong will “gradually scale up dependent on usage”

If I am not wrong, under Take or Pay concept, there is no “gradual scaling up dependent on usage”. From day 1, it is payment based on full capacity already Because they have made full capacity available to its client (Vietnam government)

That is why It is called capacity payment
01/05/2020 3:05 PM
DK Project IRR always work on net cash flow basis in so far as the investment capital of the company is concerned. However, the equity portion of the capital shall not attract interest component as it represents shareholders' equity injection.

Project IRR return represents net return from the project and shall be used to weigh against risks for decision making. As borrowing costs represents part of the cost of investment, it is dangerous not to have considered the interest cost before making final investment decision.
01/05/2020 3:06 PM
DK popo92, you may like to read this

Jaks Resources – Peer Comparison With Mong Duong II
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-29-story204451-Jaks_Resources_Peer_Comparison_With_Mong_Duong_II.jsp

-------------------------------
popo92 DK66 sifu, this IFRIC 12 is actually introduced on 2008, but it doesn't adopted since lately years. So far i have not seen any BOT concession is still using straight-line method. Thank you for pointing out power plant asset cannot be recognised as concession asset under new international accounting standard. i didn't acknowledge that, could you send me any useful links for me to read? thank you
01/05/2020 3:12 PM
probability http://ecapslock.com/project-irr-vs-equity-irr/

Project IRR vs Equity IRR
..........................

By CA Amit Bansal | 19/11/201844 Comments

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) are the two methods which are widely accepted method throughout the industries for evaluation of any Long Term Projects.

Calculation of IRR is little tricky. In this post we will understand what is IRR, difference between project IRR and Equity IRR and whether Project IRR can be lesser than Equity IRR or not?

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
.............................

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a rate on which NPV of the project equals to zero i.e. value arriving by discounting all the cash flows of the project with IRR rate will be zero.

Project IRR (PIRR) and Equity IRR (EIRR)
........................................

The project is generally financed in some proportion of Debt and Equity.

The project IRR gives the rate of return from the whole project. It is calculated presuming that there is no debt portion in the project financing. It calculates the rate of return considering the cash flows from the project only (i.e. except financing cost). Project IRR will remain same irrespective of capital mix of the project.
01/05/2020 3:13 PM
DK Probabilty, I shall prove my point later. I m in the middle of my next article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"
01/05/2020 3:14 PM
probability No issues DK66, look forward on that for my knowledge.

Below some reference related to LNG Thermal power plant using Project IRR less than 12% :


https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 3:14 PM | Report Abuse

Probabilty, I shall prove my point later. I m in the middle of my next article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"
01/05/2020 3:21 PM
DK Meanwhile, icon8888 may like to take out the borrowing costs and determine the return. I m sure the return will look miserable and not feasible for investment.
01/05/2020 3:28 PM
probability the return will be like what the management said to Public Bank IB of ~120M (profit) for 30% stake then

since the capital and interest payment is secured by EVN, its like a having a Bond level return perhaps...

just speculating

Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 3:28 PM | Report Abuse

Meanwhile, icon8888 may like to take out the borrowing costs and determine the return. I m sure the return will look miserable and not feasible for investment.
01/05/2020 3:34 PM
DK Page 21 (summary 9)
https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

You notice that the Presumptions used in calculation the IRR include allowance for borrowing costs.
01/05/2020 3:36 PM
probability They are using the borrowing cost for establishing EIRR of 10% with PIRR of 7.1% compared against WACC of 6.4%.

PIRR is for comparing against WACC. If you include interest cost in PIRR than its meaningless to compare against WACC right?



Posted by DK66 > May 1, 2020 3:36 PM | Report Abuse

Page 21 (summary 9)
https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

You notice that the Presumptions used in calculation the IRR include allowance for borrowing costs.
01/05/2020 3:47 PM
Ricky Kiat https://www.vir.com.vn/vinh-tan-1-gearing-up-for-operation-61958.html

[ If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.]

my understanding is Vinh Tan 1 can generating profit for 18 years ( pay off all debt by 7 years ). not after 18 years. my goodness.
01/05/2020 3:56 PM
qqq33333333 not going to be such high figures if the assumption is IRR of 12% on equity , not on project cost...................
01/05/2020 3:59 PM
DK The fact is they are including the interest cost for calculation to establish the desired IRR to compare against the hurdle rate of 10%
01/05/2020 4:22 PM
supersaiyan3 I blow water only. Don't take this seriously. Just view from a melon eater.

To build the plant need capital mah. So say Year 1-3, -2.5b X 30%. But JAKS has been reported profits.

So, cost likely to be deducted after COD.

8 years break even about right lah, Andy said so.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-eyes-break-even-vietnam-project-eight-years

Icon's calculation seems to be right if he is talking about Cashflow. But don't expect Net Income can be 300m because JAKS need to deduct back construction cost mah.
01/05/2020 4:22 PM
karimboss So many value stock there , why still invest complicated stock?
01/05/2020 4:45 PM
kalteh Appreciate your work on the modeling.

I was wondering whether there will be maintenance capex incur throughout the period?
01/05/2020 5:19 PM
newbie8080 @Icon8888

Great article.
Just to note: The exchange rate for USD/MYR may be too optimistic.
If I recalled correctly, in the last 60 years, MYR ever touch RM4 and above was less than 6 years.
01/05/2020 5:21 PM
Alex™ icon sifu u buy alot ka? avg buy price hw much
01/05/2020 5:25 PM
Tom lol, really? useless la.... the fact is below 0.5 is a good buy, above 1.00 is not a good buy
01/05/2020 10:36 PM
Tom second round of laosai going to haunt all jaks's fans
01/05/2020 10:38 PM
Tom Still dare to post this kind of article during bear market....someone must be brain damage, lol
01/05/2020 10:40 PM
CT So what is good buy now ? Just hold cash or what ?
01/05/2020 11:22 PM
chl1989 sifu dk66, you think 200mil net profit a year to Jaks pocket is possible by 2021?
02/05/2020 12:48 AM
VenFx Wah ! Waited till neck long for icon8888 s article.
Thank you !
02/05/2020 9:29 AM
SarifahSelinder Klau mcm ni u r talking abt return jz from capacity payment alone right?



Probability the return will be like what the management said to Public Bank IB of ~120M (profit) for 30% stake then 

since the capital and interest payment is secured by EVN, its like a having a Bond level return perhaps... 

just speculating
02/05/2020 9:34 AM
DK chl1989, you find my answer here

Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDPhttps://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

--------------------------
chl1989 sifu dk66, you think 200mil net profit a year to Jaks pocket is possible by 2021?
02/05/2020 12:48 AM
02/05/2020 10:58 AM
Tom Tee One big thing make me not to invest into Jaks is the management. Management style is well known on doing some strange method to chase out the famous investor. Will they will do the same to the small investor? Maybe yes, or maybe not. When the answer is yes, it will cause a big damage on us. Just becareful.
02/05/2020 6:47 PM
CT AGM is coming. The Directors will seek for re-election during the AGM. If not happy with them may be we should ensure them not elected.
02/05/2020 10:07 PM
Steve 555 dumb dumb hold, 2 buck is coming.
02/05/2020 10:46 PM
laughingmosquito laughing to the bank soon
03/05/2020 1:34 PM
gemfinder Beter buy scomnet than subscribe tis sohai ri
22/05/2020 11:31 PM
dannykong The Jaks right issues no details yet? their assumption is 1:5 with free detachable warrant...
23/05/2020 12:32 AM
dannykong if the RI price is attractive, I may collect more Jaks
23/05/2020 12:33 AM
abang_misai wah seh Icon8888, your financial model looks very complicated. It's as if you use difficult-to-understand kongfu and ALP simply uses a gun to bring you down with a "peow".
24/05/2020 10:03 PM
abang_misai May I know where is icon8888 sifu?
27/05/2020 10:03 PM

(Icon) Notion VTec - Forget About The Virus, It Is Time To Rock and Roll

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 10 Mar 2020, 2:16 PM


1. Bursa Dummy

 

How many of you know who is Bursa Dummy ? Put up your hand.

 

I see ... not many. Not surprised, as most of you are new here. Bursa Dummy used to blog about stocks and his articles were very well received in i3 from 2011 to 2018. (He stopped writing since 2018 due to other commitments).

 

Bursa Dummy has very good investing track record. I have high regard for him. If he asks me to sit, I will sit. If he asks me to run, I will run. 

 

After a two years hiatus, Bursa Dummy recently returned to the market. One of the stocks he wrote about is Notion.

 

http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/2020/02/notion-with-dyson.html

 

 

When he wrote about it on 2 February 2020, the price was approximately RM1.24. However, due to Covid-19, Notion is now trading at RM0.77.

 

 

 

 

2. Thoo Chow Fah

 

According to Bursa Dummy, Notion's Executive Chairman Thoo Chow Fah is a participant in i3 (please refer to Bursa Dummy's article). Sometime he will give out useful information through his commentaries. 

 

 

It is difficult to know whether it is indeed Thoo Chow Fah, but 888next's comments and information are very credible. I paid attention to what he said.

 

 

(Mr. Thoo)

 

According to Thoo, there will be a presentation in Penang on 14 March 2020 (to institutional investors ?).

 

 

For your information, 14 March is this coming Saturday. On top of that, the Company's EGM for the proposed Bonus Issue (one for two) as well as its AGM will be held on 17 March (Tuesday). So we can expect share price to get a bit excited in the coming one week.

 

 

3. Fundamentals ?

 

Notion has not performed well in the past. However, in 2018, their factory was burned down. They got huge payment from Insurance Company. With the money, they have set up new plants and machinery. In a certain way, this has given them certain edge over other industry players, allowing them to secure contracts from some MNCs.

 

Please refer to the following article for more info.

 

 

 

 

 

Labels: NOTION
  3 people like this.
 
mneo I do hope that you buy a lot..a lot...else if the company rebound back sharply......you will regret of missing the opportunity..... :-)
10/03/2020 2:29 PM
ongkkh i know Bursa Dummy and i like his articles too. it is easy to understand...
10/03/2020 2:47 PM
ramada Good counter I don't know, but good writing skill.
11/03/2020 5:52 PM
kalteh Thanks for sharing. His blog is indeed a good read.
11/03/2020 9:25 PM
alina If i'm not mistaken their factory had been burned twice, on second one burned on 20th October 2017 during rest hour.
12/03/2020 9:44 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) You want to invest in a companies whose business model is burning down their factories for insurance money?

Wonderful strategy.
12/03/2020 5:05 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) But having looked deeper into the business, I think this company may have a good future growth prospects. Ok la, join you play with my next pump and dump article
13/03/2020 7:20 AM

(Icon) Kobay Technology - Growing From Strength To Strength

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 5 Mar 2020, 2:47 PM


1. Introduction

 

Kobay is principally involved in manufacturing of precision components, tooling, automation equipment for aerospace, semiconductor and oil and gas industry.

 

It is based in Bayan Lepas, Penang. It also has a property project in Langkawi.

 

I first wrote about it in June 2018 when it was trading at RM1.05.

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2018-06-08-story160409-_Icon_Kobay_Technology_Precision_Engineering_Riding_Semiconductor_and_Aerospace_Industry_Boom.jsp

 

Today, it is trading at RM1.89, an 80% gain.

 

 

But its profit has grown by a lot as well. So the stock is still cheap and hence, potentially has further upside.

 

 

2. On A Winning Streak

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) In September 2019 quarter, property development division incurred a one off expense of RM1.8 mil pursuant to change of development plan (orange highlighted). That dragged down earning. Without that exceptional item, EPS in that quarter was approximately 5.9 sen.

 

(b) manufacturing division registered significant growth in second half of 2019. Revenue jumped by more than 30% from RM35 mil in June 2019 Q to RM46 mil in December 2019 Q. PBT grew by more than 100% from RM5.4 mil to RM10.9 mil during the same period (gray highlighted).

 

Due to the strong growth, the group registered EPS of 6.9 sen in latest quarter (yellow highlighted).

 

 

3. Concluding Remarks

 

In the December quarterly report, the company commented that in coming quarters, manufacturing division might face slow down in demand from semiconductor industry clients, but oil and gas backlog might cushion the decline.

 

Based on latest share price of RM1.89 and annualised EPS of 27 sen (being 6.9 sen x 4), prospective PER is approximately 7 times. This compares favorably with other industry players such as Dufu, UWC, MI, etc that are trading at PER of more than 25 times.

 

I stick my neck out to call for BUY.

 

Note : Together with Sam Engineering, this stock is in i-Capital portfolio.

Labels: KOBAY
  5 people like this.
 
lching low volume is the main consideration for me.
05/03/2020 2:53 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) A few red flags for me.

1. Any business with a good core that decides to diversify into property development makes me worry. Soft property market plus huge receivables is a big headache.
2. The impairments and late payments +90 days delay is worrying especially when credit impaired.
3. There are a few deals with suppliers/contractors of director related family members.
4. Development companies building high end properties should have much higher profit margins. This is impacted by high construction costs, which lead back to the director family member related suppliers selling at high price to company. I have seen almost every trick in the book and know how companies with a property development arm can do many tricks to funnel cash out of company in a legal way. I'm not saying kobay is one of them, as their manufacturing am is doing fabulous, but the red flags give me some cause for concern.

But other than that, their valuation, cash position and business growth is a very consistent increasing line.

It's your call to make.
05/03/2020 9:39 PM
VenFx Kobay hmmm
06/03/2020 11:23 AM

(Icon) Sam Engineering - Excellent Result. Share Price Can Potentially Double Within 2 Years

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sun, 1 Mar 2020, 1:00 PM


1. Excellent Result

 

Last Friday, Sam Engineering released its financial result for the quarter ended 31 December 2019.

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) EPS at all time high of 19.3 sen.

 

(b) Aerospace revenue is flattish at RM123 mil, but Equipment revenue registered a huge jump from RM90 mil to RM156 mil (73% jump Q-o-Q).

 

Accordingly, segmental profit for Equipment division jumped by 100% from RM10.8 mil to RM21.6 mil. Aerospace division's segmental profit remains more or less the same Q-o-Q.

 

(c) Minimal exceptional items. What we see is what we get.

 

 

2. Result Commentaries

 

 

As shown above, it is pretty straight forward : higher revenue contribution from Equipment division leads to higher PBT.

 

 

3. Outlook

 

 

Revenue contribution from Aerospace division is expected to drop going forward as Boeing has suspended production of 737Max beginning January 2020. In August 2019 AGM presentation slides, the Company mentioned that 737Max accounted for <10% of yearly revenue. If that is the case, how much will be the impact on profitability ?

 

Based on past 12 months figures (October 2018 until September 2019), total group and Aerospace division revenue was RM792 mil and RM471 mil respectively. A 10% drop in group revenue is equivalent to RM79 mil decline. Meaning Aerospace division revenue will drop from RM471 mil to RM392 mil. That is a drop of 17%.

 

Assuming the same impact on PBT, Aerospace division's PBT is expected to decline from RM50.7 mil (October 2018 until September 2019) to RM42 mil, a drop of RM8.6 mil, or RM2.2 mil per quarter. Accordingly, we can expect Aerospace division's PBT in coming quarter to drop from RM12 mil to RM9.8 mil (a drop of RM2.2 mil per quarter).

 

Based on assumption that Equipment division maintains same profitability (in previous articles, I mentioned that I believe semicon upswing can last for few years due to 5G), its PBT will be RM21.6 mil.

 

Adding the two together, total PBT will be RM9.8 mil + RM21.6 mil = RM31.4 mil. Based on tax rate of 22% (same as this quarter), net profit will be RM24.5 mil. Based on 135.2 mil shares, EPS of 18 sen (a drop of 1.2 sen from current quarter).

 

If annualised, can expect full year EPS of 72.4 sen. Based on current price of RM7.50, prospective PER is 10.4 times.

 

To arrive at Target Price, I will leave it to you to decide what PER to apply. For comparison purpose, its peers Dufu, UWC, Greatec, MI Technovation etc are all trading at PER of more than 25 times.

Labels: SAM
  ramada likes this.
 
value88 Market does not give high PE to SAM just like to other technology stocks, and I wonder why ?
Maybe the reason is it has aerospace division, apart from semiconductor division. Market mainly appreciates semiconductor division as it will ride on 5G wave ?

SAM is indeed selling at cheap valuation based on its earnings capability.
01/03/2020 1:19 PM
Icon8888 Market overlooks it

One day when a reputable IB starts writing it will fly

Let’s just worry about earnings

PE is never a problem in this internet era
01/03/2020 1:29 PM
Rwkl Icon, is this your longest holding stock? Annualized eps should be 65 sen, no?
01/03/2020 6:58 PM
Tom Tee Sam generously on its dividend payment partly due to its biggest shareholder at Singapore hold almost 70% total shares. This is good to invest in for the dividend. But I am not sure why its traded volume is so little until the market forget it.
01/03/2020 9:58 PM
popo92 why market does not give SAM high pe? look at their margin.
Dufu =19%
UWC = 23.4%
greatech =30%
MI = 25.6%
SAM = 9.3% ,

i am not saying SAM is not going to be a good pick it's still growing comfortably but look at those semicon exposure business they are so lucrative and most are still growing and expected to grow more 20%. its just an opinion of mine

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
To arrive at Target Price, I will leave it to you to decide what PER to apply. For comparison purpose, its peers Dufu, UWC, Greatec, MI Technovation etc are all trading at PER of more than 25 times.
01/03/2020 11:10 PM
Choivo Capital I like SAM.

But i'm wondering if banking on Malaysia Market similarly overvalues SAM the same way it does to the other semicon related stocks is a good idea.

Still at this price, pretty ok lah for a Temasek run biz.

Have not studied the numbers in depth.
02/03/2020 2:02 AM
techpower I stay at home bec fear Covid-19 why you all no scared to fly?
06/03/2020 12:33 PM
RainT as usual

try bring ppl to Holland
16/04/2020 11:52 AM
abang_misai teruk macam ini. Ramai turut kena bedal doleh Ewint-wa
19/05/2020 10:42 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Icon8888 already lost money until 1 month gone from i3investor
07/06/2020 8:00 AM
CharlesT Philip is yr wife Thai Kim Sim or Tan Bee Geok?
07/06/2020 8:02 AM
abang_misai Dia ambil cuti saket a.k.a. MC

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jun 7, 2020 8:00 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 already lost money until 1 month gone from i3investor
07/06/2020 8:17 AM

(Icon) Covid19 Induced Bear Market Won’t Last Long

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 28 Feb 2020, 7:28 AM


The current correction is a good chance to buy into quality stocks that you missed. The crisis will be over in around two months time. I said so because that was what happened in 2003 during the SARS epidemic. That time the helpless feeling was the same - the virus spreaded from one country to another, and there was no end in sight.

 

But the end did come. It came quietly and graciously. As the weather gradually warmed up in May 2003, the virus slowly disappeared. 
 

As simple as that. 

 

  3 people like this.
 
calvintaneng old man so clever

IF ONLY ALL CAN SURVIVE TILL THEN
28/02/2020 7:32 AM
calvintaneng WHO IS ON FULL MARGIN WILL GET WIPED OFF BEFORE THAT
28/02/2020 7:33 AM
Sslee My Investment philosophy: Looking for stocks that give reasonable dividend yield and capital appreciation. Understand that in order to bag a 10 bagger, need patience to wait for next market crash. If it occurs I am prepare, if it doesn’t happen I am fine with my current investments

Haha finally I have my chance to bag a 10 bagger?
28/02/2020 8:33 AM
Icon8888 Bag your head
28/02/2020 8:35 AM
CharlesT I tend to be very excited when mkt is bad..historically my return tends to be good when mkt is bad, n vice versal....lol
28/02/2020 8:37 AM
Icon8888 Yes

Big money is always made in bear market
28/02/2020 8:46 AM
Sslee Haha Icon8888,
How is your EWINT?
28/02/2020 8:52 AM
Icon8888 I don’t need to win all the time
28/02/2020 8:53 AM
Icon8888 But it is doing well in terms of earning

I am not in a hurry
28/02/2020 8:54 AM
Icon8888 I ride with Liew and Quek

They keep ten years I keep ten years

They get dividend I get dividend
28/02/2020 8:56 AM
Sslee Haha,
After arguing with Philip for year on QL, finally he say QL is fairy Value at PE60. He sold some QL to top up Yinson
28/02/2020 9:00 AM
Icon8888 Yinson I am ok
28/02/2020 9:12 AM
Icon8888 Busy collecting kobay
28/02/2020 9:14 AM
supersaiyan3 I think it is a correct measure the virus problem will be solved in 2 months.

However, there are other problems, China economy is collapsing, and the world is sinking with it somehow.

Companies with so much bleeding, its difficult to recover to its previous heyday.

What we should be thinking of is the social impact and what to do with it.
28/02/2020 9:45 AM
Icon8888 One day at a time

There are always problems in this world
28/02/2020 9:53 AM
Up_down The coronavirus crisis started to trigger DJ plunging since Monday. There is plenty of chance to buy latter or buy at the pace like a snail moving to minimize the risks.
28/02/2020 11:23 AM
calvintaneng Slowly buy downward

Space out buying

Buy at low key in prices

Operasi tong sampah time
28/02/2020 11:35 AM
probability Look at China's counts...and current death rate. It has reduced tremendously...almost becoming nil.

Global market spooked just because it entered Europe and many other countries...current alertness globally will definitely be able to control the spread.
28/02/2020 11:50 AM
ahbah Chip can be chipper later on ?

So, when to buy ?

We all oredi kena teruk today !
28/02/2020 11:52 AM
calvintaneng ahbah Chip can be chipper later on ?

So, when to buy ?

We all oredi kena teruk today !
28/02/2020 11:52 AM

CORRECT

CHEAP CAN GET CHEAPER

BUT IF YOU KNOW A STOCK AND HAVE CONFIDENCE

CHEAP IS THE TIME TO BUY SOME (TAKE SMALL BITES OR BABY STEPS)

IF AFTER BUYING DROPS MORE?

THEN ADD MORE

THIS IS THE WAY TO BUY BARGAINS ALL THE WAY TO BOTTOM
28/02/2020 1:00 PM
probability look at the new cases: Only China & Korea...having a few hundred cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

could not figure why market is behaving like this. U.S market needed a correction i guess...it was long overdue..and this virus was just a trigger.
28/02/2020 1:33 PM
ahbah Covid 19 just onli started spreading worldwide from China.

Outside China, still got a long long way to get covid 19 under control ?
28/02/2020 1:38 PM
ahbah This virus is not just a trigger.

It is a weapon of mass economic n mkt destruction !
28/02/2020 1:40 PM
probability China could bring down from 4000 infection a day to 350 with limited hospitals & resources.

When its global, each country will have abundant resources to handle such small counts in each country.

It will always remain here and there...but total infections a day (worldwide) will unlikely to increase further.
28/02/2020 1:43 PM
probability Death rate per day - will become nil soon. Infections rate will reach a plateau in a month and very likely a vaccine/strong medicine to manage it will be found by then.
28/02/2020 1:48 PM
ahbah Researchers in China and the US are developing a vaccine for the new Coronavirus.

If all goes well, they may run the first tests in three months.

A vaccine would be available mid-year — at the very earliest.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-a-race-against-time/a-52174737
28/02/2020 2:13 PM
ahbah “ I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus ”

Dr. Robert Redfield

Director, CDC
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Feb. 13, 2020
28/02/2020 2:18 PM
ahbah Scientists warn that much remains unknown about the virus, which can lead to pneumonia, and say vaccine may take up to 18 months to develop.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-02-28-story-h1484002852-World_faces_coronavirus_pandemic_markets_brace_for_global_recession.jsp
28/02/2020 2:30 PM
calvintaneng Post removed. Why?
28/02/2020 2:36 PM
ahbah This virus beside attacking our body also attack our pocket !
28/02/2020 2:46 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Old men can and must learn new tricks to evolve.

Ql now is pe 50+. Overvalue at least have growing value.

Sadly, Insas... Hard to find any value. Never have. Never will.

When will sslee start to learn from Calvin tan mistakes and improve his own journey.

If assets was the key to making money in stock market,

Why are these stocks so low in pe and appears like a great deal but no one buys them?
Asiapac
Talamt
Bjland
Mahsing
Pathetic parkson (2 billion assets for only 200 million, isn't it better than Insas with a net asset of 1.74 selling for that 17 cents? Better than Insas 76 cents with 2.34 NTA value)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2019-07-16-story215437-Insas_Deep_Value_Investing_Assets_value_liquid_assets_and_Earning_play.jsp


The real fairy value is Insas. "I believe Dato’ Sri Thong will do something about Insas share price".

November 26, 2017.
Dear all,
At KLIA2 terminal waiting for my flight to Medan.
Just used up the door gift from INSAS AGM, DOME voucher of RM30 for food and one free coffee.shares
Please check up of DOMECAFE at below link.
http://www.domecafe.com.my
You will be surprise and spoil of choices with so many verities of foods and drinks they are serving.
The foods/drinks and services are excellent. Easily beat Kenny Rogers of Berjaya food hands down.
Thank you

You have now kept Insas for 3 years. In that time they sold down almost 100 million inari shares,

Nov 28, 2017 1:03 PM | Report Abuse

Dear sparta,
INSAS own 401,711,300 INARI shares.
Just do the math.
Thank you.

Sold roset, no growth in dome, closed vigcash. Lost money in melium, tribecar, payment system, biotech not moving.

Revenue and earnings multi year low.

In November of 2017, share price of Insas was 0.93. 3 years later, Insas is now worth 0.76.

Will you still hold shares in this fairy value company? Or sell it?
Or in this best of times buy a company that will continue to grow and grow 3 years from now? A wonderful company?
Have you improved your investing skill in the last 3 years to notice and find a wonderful company?
Or will your fear of the unknown stop you from increasing your investment in the wonderful company which faces temporary headwinds?

Remember xinquan. No one can help you if you choose a wonderful company on paper, bad company in real life. Only yourself.

Thank you

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Haha,
After arguing with Philip for year on QL, finally he say QL is fairy Value at PE60. He sold some QL to top up Yinson
28/02/2020 9:00 AM
28/02/2020 11:54 PM
ahbah The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 60 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

Covid 19 oredi attacking 1/3 of our world.

Who know one day the covid 19 will conquer our whole world !
29/02/2020 5:42 PM
qqq33333333 stock market is stock market.........no comments

but virus is science.........don't play play with science.

people may think summer come , virus sure die...........but what if Singapore starts having local infections............then sure die lah..........Singapore is so capable and so hot, if virus can still spread..........rest of the world got chance meh?
29/02/2020 9:44 PM
Icon8888 The virus survive several days in cold weather

But only several hours in Singapore

That is the science
29/02/2020 9:51 PM
Icon8888 So when the north warms up it will be easier to control and ultimately stop it

I never say the virus will die because of hot weather
29/02/2020 9:52 PM
ahbah In South Korea n Iran, Covid 19 is still spreading like wild fire !
29/02/2020 10:06 PM
ahbah No covid-19 death in Malaysia.

Congratulation to our Malaysian medical personnel !
29/02/2020 10:08 PM
qqq33333333 I am not aware of local infections in Singapore... just saying it will be important news
29/02/2020 10:14 PM
qqq33333333 facts will finally win..PH got the numbers already
29/02/2020 10:17 PM
nicedurians hospital inside aircond how to warm up?
29/02/2020 10:20 PM
nicedurians virus only die to alcohol
29/02/2020 10:20 PM
ahbah KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 29 — Bursa Malaysia is expected to continue its volatile trading mode with a downside bias next week as political uncertainty persists in the local landscape.

An analyst said the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) had reached the lowest level since December 2011, with a bearish harami pattern prevailing which marked a further downward momentum
29/02/2020 10:33 PM
beso your conclusion may be simple but you forgot year 2003 world stock markets up from record low while year 2020 besides few world stock markets tumbling from record high totally two different scenario
01/03/2020 7:55 PM
Tom Tee Icon with a quick view of Kobay and indeed it is a cheap company with good growth recent qtr. Just a question: Do we need to accumulate the tiny traded share now with no body look at it at all now? for sure this will need time to wait patiently, maybe half year, maybe 1 year when it gather the crowd attention? or we need to rush in as others when it has emitted its light and huge volume start to build up? I seen your holding at MBMR which is also this is almost situation. and this MBMR build up a very safe margin when it start to get others all attention in term of in term of pricing.
01/03/2020 9:52 PM
lching i also waiting for icon write-up on KOBAY
01/03/2020 10:02 PM
Ananas which sector will survive in the bear market?
03/03/2020 12:32 AM

(Icon) Eco World International - Why I Am Adding More

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 16 Dec 2019, 11:08 AM


Lat week, there were two major developmets for Eco World International (Ewint). Firstly, the Tories won the UK election. Secondly, the company announced a very strong set of results. With market cap of RM2.4 bil and latest Q net profit of approximately RM110 mil, the group is trading at undemanding prospective PER of 5.5 times (based on annualised EPS).  

 

However, share price has not moved much. Many investors took the opportunity to lock in profit and cash out instead. Even I myself have contemplated doing so (buy on rumours sell on facts). With 2.4 bil shares, the stock has market cap of RM2.4 bil. Everybody knows that its earning is based on the few property projects currently pending completion. It seems that at current price, the market has more or less factored in its earning potential. CIMB analyst, for example, forecasts that FY2020 earning will be extremely strong, but beyond that, EPS will drop to only 5 sen in FY2021. Hence the decision to downgrade to HOLD.

 

 

At first look, the analyst is correct as she is making her recommendation on the premise that earning will peak next year pursuant to completion of the projects in hand. A Good investor always acts one step ahead of others.

 

But if you think about it (Second Level Thinking), you will realise that her view is flawed. This is because Ewint is NOT a concession based company with finite lifespan. Instead, the recent resolution of UK political crisis through Conservative Party winning of majority is the beginning of a new boom cycle for Ewint. Upon reading this, many people will disagree with me (First Level Thinking again). They will argue that Brexit is far from being resolved, and there will be rocky roads ahead.

 

Well, if that is the case, they don't really understand the true risks posed by Brexit. Let me explain.

 

Many people have this impression that an unresolved Brexit will adversely affect Ewint's operation. Wrong.

 

It is true that Brexit will create certain uncertainties for businesses. But Brexit will have minimal impact on Ewint. If the UK exits Europe, Ewint is fine. If the UK does not exit, Ewint is also fine. If the UK fails to resolve Brexit and was stuck somewhere in the middle (like in past three years), Ewint will also be fine.

 

This is because the London housing market is facing severe supply shortage. Ewint has locked in substantial landbank over past two years (by capitalising on the Brexit panic). No matter what happens to Brexit in the next few years, Ewint's direction is clear : develope the landbank to tap the strong demand for housing in London. This can be done either through Built to Rent or though conventional property launches.

 

If that is the case, you may ask, then why did Ewint share price drop to as low as 60 sen in past few months ? Wasn't that proof that Brexit uncertainties can do a lot of harm ? And won't the same problem happen again in the future (knowing that Brexit is far from being resolved) ?

 

The all time low share price as described above was actually caused by two risk factors :

(a) the risk of No Deal Brexit; and

(b) the risk of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

 

Let us go though these two factors one by one.

 

No deal Brexit - In my opinion, it will never happen. The relationship between Europe and UK is very close. They are like a family, eventually things will be sorted out.

 

Jeremy Corbyn - This gentleman is dangerous because he is an unrepentant Communist. He threatened to impose high taxes on corporations, launch hundreds of thousands of affordable housing which will drastically cut down demand for residential products that developers such as Ewint relies on as bread and butter, and also force landlords to give tenants rights to buy over properties from them at discount, etc. With such hostile policies, who would dare to invest in UK properties ?

 

But fortunately, Jeremy Corbyn is out of the picture. He poses no more threat to Ewint and other developers as well as businesses in UK.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

Ewint is owned by two very strong shareholders : Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin and Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan. Ewint was listed in 2017 at RM1.20. It is very unlikely that the stock will have no further upside going forward. These two shareholders are famous for value creation. They do not commit their funds easily in business. For whatever they do, they will not rest until market cap has ballooned substantially to create wealth for them.

 

Of course, in business there is a limit to will power. You cannot get rich just because you have strong desire to do so. The market condition must be favorable. In Ewint's case, the market condition is INDEED favorable. There is plenty of room to grow further. Whoever that dismiss Ewint as fully valued just because FY2021 EPS is likely to experience a dip have not stretched their imagination far enough to factor in potential earning from future sales and projects.

 

If you are a speculator, you might want to cash out now. But if you are an investor, you should take the opportunity to buy more. The worst is over. The company is ready to go full throttle, targeting to grow its Built to Rent business multiple folds in coming years. 

 

With a bit of patience, you will be amply rewarded. 

Labels: EWINT
  9 people like this.
 
paperplane oops, drop
16/12/2019 3:57 PM
abang_misai Now its share price is too high. Wait for it to go down to a reasonable level to participate. This is to reduce the risk. Don't forget market is negative on property. So, no need to rush in to buy up.
16/12/2019 4:11 PM
abang_misai Cjcen on an interesting turnaround story.

When it first announced its planning to do fully auto-sorted courier-service, its share price hit Rm1.40 in 2016.

Now the said courier-service building already obtained CF and its auto-sorters started operation on October 2019, its share price hit Rm0.30 level due losses resulted from its start up cost.

Second level thinking (foresee what will take place in months to come) & control risk (buy at bottom). Virtually, risk free.
16/12/2019 4:18 PM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.
16/12/2019 8:07 PM
abang_misai To maintain winning streak in Bursa, it is a must to get “third-level thinking” deployed.
16/12/2019 8:12 PM
Connie555 Ass Ass Lee second level thinking think that Thong Kok Khee will actually declare dividend to him will trap him in INSAS for many years. Buy to enjoy dividend but how to know it will declare dividend or not.
16/12/2019 10:46 PM
trapped Buy more to get trap more? Already trapped in ABMB, YTL Power how to escape?
17/12/2019 7:22 AM
Sslee Hi Connie555,
My first level thinking telling me Insas is a cheaper entry into Inari and I can enjoy the growth and dividend from Inari at cheaper cost to me.

My second level thinking telling me after Insas warrants and PA expired on 25th 2020 Insas can save 6m of PA interest payment and Insas price and dividend should start to move north.

My third level thinking telling me TSHS and Dato’ Wong will have better success if their take over Insas rather than Plus. https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-halim-saad-ups-his-bid-plus-30

Thank you
17/12/2019 7:52 AM
abang_misai So called Multiple-level thinking is a pure guess formation aka speculation that you destroy you.
17/12/2019 7:58 AM
Sslee Dear all,
The third level thinking will tell you after Brexit, services and manufacturing goods going to EU from UK will need to pay export tax to EU. Then Banks and manufacturers that depend on EU market will need to move base to EU. UK will lost its status as Europe Financial center and EU citizen who work in London will move back to EU, then what will happen to property market.

Thank you
17/12/2019 8:07 AM
Sslee Dear abang_misai
Totally agree with you. And Benjamin Graham quote: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

So we only need first level thinking; this quarter earnings is better than last quarter and next quarter earnings will be better than this quarter to write 20 articles about it and earn RM 58 million within 9 months like Mr. Koon.

Please leave the second level thinking to 3iii and Philip; the market price will continues go north when companies can make stable, predictable and consistence revenue and earnings growth with PE from 25 to 50 to 100 and 150.

Also please don’t compete with calvintaneng with third level thinking of imagination and story-telling. He had contributed thousand articles to i3 and made so many chun-chun call.

For us if you want to make fast money please use your fist level thinking and your chart for stocks on "price and volume breakout"

Thank you
17/12/2019 9:05 AM
yflawrence This is good company but I think it is worth and less risk to get ECOWLD as it just break out and rise from the ground floor.....
17/12/2019 10:33 AM
SALAM Joint VSA..huhu
17/12/2019 10:34 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Actually SSlee also working hard on second level thinking with his MGO hopes for insas and bjland.

If you trap because of speculative activities, then it is not investing. Investing is about the business position first and foremost, MGO and goreng assumptions a far away third option.

Try to stay away from things like that and also calvin tan specialty: (ASS)ets. Just because you have a big castle doesn't mean bad management can't gamble it away...

Stick to profitable business first and foremost.
>>>>>>
Sslee Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.
16/12/2019 8:07 PM
17/12/2019 12:48 PM
Icon8888 Ass Ass Lee your Zero level thinking Bjland zero operating profit my Ewint a lot of operating profit

That is the difference

Don’t compare a retard with a PHD
17/12/2019 3:55 PM
Sslee Hahahaha Icon8888,
Bjland is for betting/trading nothing to compare about. So please hold tight tight EWINT and must have conviction like philip to buy more during Pchem and Gkent discount day and hold for long term and no cut win please.
17/12/2019 5:54 PM
kinuxian These are just first lvl thinking why housebuilder share in ftse surged lately... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/98947464-1D82-11EA-A37B-63BB81D511AD
If more investment goes into UK.. Pound might get strengthen as well. Boris bounce. There're reasons for Hong Kong taikun Li Ka Shing invest heavily in UK prior brexit.
17/12/2019 6:08 PM
kinuxian https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2019/08/26/hong-kongs-richest-man-makes-multibillion-dollar-bet-on-britain/amp/
17/12/2019 6:23 PM
Connie555 HAHAHAHAHAHHAHA OMG CANT STOP LAUGHING THAT ICON ACTUALLY CALL ASS ASS LEE ASS ASS LEE.....anyway no offence Sslee, u still hv my respect unlike 2 the academian cum lecturer...
17/12/2019 6:40 PM
paperplane Connie, u mean kcchongnz, and tht choivo or chiovo or volcano
17/12/2019 6:57 PM
paperplane Ipo rm1. 20? Wow, still negative return if don't think abt div? Ewint got div ah?
17/12/2019 6:58 PM
Sslee Hi Connie555
Thank you for the respect.
Intelligent people compare idea.
Stupid people compare qualification: Primary school, SRP, SPM, “A” level, Diploma, Degree, Master, PHD.
Small people compare title: Dato’, Dato’ Sri, Tan Sri, Tun
And Rich people compare length of sausage.
To each his own.

Thank you
17/12/2019 8:05 PM
Connie555 And you have two Ass, Ass Ass Lee, so do you compare the two Ass?

And with the comparison, which catergory you fall into? intelligent,stupid,small or Rich?
17/12/2019 8:30 PM
Connie555 i mean choivo n ROCky Balboa (he no longer name ricky after he proposed his ROC idea for Nobel award, yet he fail but nvm we honor him with this name ROCky)
17/12/2019 8:32 PM
Sslee Hahahaha Connie555,
We all have the capacity to be intelligent and rich or be stupid and small as long as we prepare to work hard and life long learning or be arrogant and think we already earned the PHD by reading some books.
17/12/2019 8:47 PM
Icon8888 Bjland is crap lah

After insas it is another retard stock for ass Lee
17/12/2019 10:22 PM
Dato Seri John Lu Support Icon
18/12/2019 7:20 AM
Sslee Hahahaha Icon8888,
We are not discussion Bjland in this article (Agreed Bjland is crap worth only half sen bet). Aren’t the discussions is about Brexit and your second level thinking “In Ewint's case, the market condition is INDEED favorable. There is plenty of room to grow further. Whoever that dismiss Ewint as fully valued just because FY2021 EPS is likely to experience a dip have not stretched their imagination far enough to factor in potential earning from future sales and projects”

Let’s start with Brexit consequences for the U.K
https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-consequences-4062999
1. The U.K. would no longer enjoy tariff-free trading with the EU, depending on the new trade agreement. Tariffs will raise prices of U.K. imports and costs of exports.
2. Brexit has already depressed growth in The City, the U.K.'s financial center. Growth was only 1.4% in 2018, and was close to zero in 2019. Brexit has diminished business investment by 11%. International companies would no longer use London as an English-speaking entry into the EU economy
3. Real estate: Lower economic growth could depress real estate prices.
4. Divorce bill: The U.K. would pay billions in euros for its “divorce bill.
5. Restricted labor movement: Constraints on immigration would hurt Britain’s labor force
6. Scotland voted against Brexit. The Scottish government believes that staying in the EU is the best for Scotland and the U.K. It has been pushing the U.K. government to allow for a second referendum

As of your so called second level thinking perhaps you can answer Philip’s second level thinking questions rather than questioning people have not stretched their imagination far enough to factor in potential earning from future sales and projects.
1. The main profit center for ewint is UK, where they are selling at 500-800 GBP per sqft. Now, how profitable is that versus acquisition costs and future expansions?
2. How much is the financial debt required to ride out a development phase, hoping to hit the sweet spot in home shortage and bring in the dough to pay out all the debt, all the while avoiding the danger of overexpansion and financial disaster?
3. How consistently can they mint money, and how long do we "invest" in the company before an eventual downturn, over commitment phase that seems to plague almost all developer companies?

Thank you
P/S: Please hold till FY2021, when EPS experience a dip to see whether people will talk about first level thinking or your so called second level thinking? Or run with their arms, legs or Ass? And since when stretching your imagination far enough is considered as second level thinking?
18/12/2019 7:36 AM
paperplane Aiyo. Ecoworld by tht tine takeover by pnb, again! Haha
18/12/2019 8:00 AM
Dato Seri John Lu This Ass Ass Lick talking until cow vome home but never earn any penny
18/12/2019 11:35 AM
Connie555 Ass Ass Lee now prepare question like hw he question BOD during agm oledi...asking for dividend....Icon better answer him like how Hengyuan director or Thong kok khee answer him......

*mic check, mic check*
Please ask slowly Mr.Ass , as the secretary need to note down the agm minute
18/12/2019 12:01 PM
stncws Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.

.......
take private 15c.....
18/12/2019 12:04 PM
Kukuman What is the motive for the Author to tell all and sundry he is buying more?
18/12/2019 2:37 PM
abang_misai any latest news?
20/12/2019 11:32 AM
Sslee Dear all,
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/12/20/bailout-fears-unsettle-khazanah-amid-merger-plan-to-create-giant-property-firm/

Now you know who to blame in making house unaffordable.
Did anyone know in UK most shops closed after 5 and on Sunday? UK only entertainment is football and drinking in Pub and generally people hate big houses because of cooling and heating cost during summer and winter.

Thank you.
20/12/2019 11:55 AM
Sslee Dear Icon8888,
May the Year of the Metal Rat bring you Good Luck, Good Health, Good Fortune, Plentiful of Laughter, Happiness, Success and at Peace with Oneself and Others. Happy Chinese New Year 2020

Thank you
P/S: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-01-22-story-h1482896892-Let_s_celebrate_the_coming_CNY_2020_together_with_well_wishing_of_Unity.jsp
22/01/2020 9:05 PM
Kyou https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1231458/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Michel-Barnier-trade-deal-Boris-Johnson-latest-update
24/01/2020 1:14 PM
mustinvest bravo
10/02/2020 9:54 AM
RainT until now, all good about EWINT become useless now

UK virus is widely spread

latest quarter result after the good result, is worse and bad
18/04/2020 3:20 PM
RainT this is life , future events is totally unpredictable
18/04/2020 3:20 PM
Sslee UK population will be reduce by 4% so will have many empty house later.
18/04/2020 3:24 PM
i3lurker sslee

Population reduction is only one of the issues

actually before Brexit, many multi-nationals already warned that they will shift Corporate HQ over to Europe. It has happened already

Panasonic (Moved its European headquarters from the UK to Amsterdam)

P&O (Shifted the registration of its UK vessels to Cyprus)

Sony (Moving European headquarters from the UK to the Netherlands)

AXA (Moved UK staff to Republic due to Brexit)

UBS (Moved €32 billion)

EBA (The European Banking Authority (EBA) closed its Canary Wharf office and will re-open in Paris, France)

Schaeffler (Closed two UK plants because of Brexit)

Flybmi (Went bust, cancelling all flights with immediate effect and blamed Brexit as the main cause of its collapse)

EMA (The European Medicines Agency has closed its doors in the UK with the loss of 900 jobs ahead of Brexit)

MoneyGram (Will move its European headquarters out of London to Brussels)

Nissan (Nissan has reversed plans to invest in new manufacturing capacity in the U.K., citing ‘continuing uncertainty’ around Brexit)

Toyota (Toyota has said that it could end U.K. production as early as 2023 if the country leaves the European Union without a deal)

Body Shop (Body Shop will be making staff redundant in the UK as they move some of their operations to Europe, ahead of Brexit)

Michelin (Michelin announced plans to close its factory in Dundee in 2020, nearly 50 years after it opened and where 845 people are employed)

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2019/09/23/companies-collapsed-moved-abroad-since-brexit-10795029/?ito=cbshare
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/
18/04/2020 3:36 PM
Flintstones Another icon holland stock
18/04/2020 3:56 PM
FoolsGold "..But if you are an investor, you should take the opportunity to buy more. The worst is over. The company is ready to go full throttle, targeting to grow its Built to Rent business multiple folds in coming years."

its not the internal factors tht matters now, its the unknown external factors, the last guy who proclaim "worst is over', was smart enough to cabut, to the green mountains, to fight again another day...
18/04/2020 4:01 PM
i3lurker Birmingham residents are spreading out to other areas

Possibly future premium reduction when UK benchmarks with Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan
18/04/2020 4:07 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) The worst is over. The company is ready to go full throttle, targeting to grow its Built to Rent business multiple folds in coming years....

Famous last words.
06/05/2020 8:50 AM
qqq33333333 Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > May 6, 2020 8:50 AM | Report Abuse

Famous last words.

======

that means die already.....
08/05/2020 11:27 AM
abang_misai Holland already.
14/05/2020 11:10 PM
gemfinder Another holand stock by icon8888
14/05/2020 11:12 PM
abang_misai Hantam Ewint—wa die faster
15/05/2020 11:21 PM

(Icon) YTL Power - Reaching Inflection Point ? Completion of Jordan IPP By Mid 2020 Should Boost Earning

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 25 Nov 2019, 11:10 AM


1. Introduction

 

 

Recently, I added YTL Power to my portfolio. The stock is trading at all time low of 69 sen. The last time it traded that low was during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis.

 

Of course, a stock trading at all time low doesn't mean it is a good buy. We have to look at fundamentals, right ?

 

 

2. Historical and Prospective Earnings

 

Operation wise, the company has been facing a lot of headwind recently. Its Singapore power business is not doing well due to oversupply. Its 60% owned Yes 4G's 1BestariNet contract has just been discontinued by the government. In coming quarters, this division will pose a material drag to earning.

 

On the other hand, its Wessex Water is still extremely profitable (net profit of RM500 mil per annum, if I am not wrong). Its associate companies PT Jawa and Electranet Australia are doing well. 

 

Due to the existence of so many different entities, it is difficult for me to make a credible predicton of the group's earning. So I rely on analysts' earning forecast :

 

(Kenanga IB, 7 November 2019. Expects prospective FY2020 EPS of 7.7 sen)

 

(TA, 15 OCtober 2019. Expects prospective FY2020 EPS of 6.7 sen)

 

(MIDF, 30 August 2019. Expect prospective FY2020 EPS of 6.7 sen)

 

On average, Analysts expect prospective EPS of 7 sen. Based on current price of 70 sen, prospective PER is 10 times. I leave it to you to decide whether this is cheap or expensive. 

 

On average, Analysts forecast DPS of 4.5 sen. Based on current price of 70 sen, dividend yield is 6.4%. Yummy, nobody can dispute that. 

 

 

3. Jordan IPP 

 

YTL Power owns 45% equity interest in Attarat Power Company ("APCO") which is constructing a shale oil powered IPP in Jordan. The remaining 45% and 10% is owned by China's Guangdong Yudean Group and Estonia's Eesti Energia respectively. According to latest news, first unit is expected to commence operation by mid 2020 (7 months away). The second unit by end 2020.

 

 

AMMAN — An oil shale power station affiliated with the Attarat Power Company (APCO) is expected to be connected to the national electricity grid by May of next year at a capacity of 470MW, covering 15 per cent of Jordan’s electricity needs.

According to APCO experts, producing the aforementioned amount of electricity will require the combustion of 10 million tonnes of oil shale annually, the Jordan News Agency, Petra reported. 

Project CEO Jason Pok said that this project is one of the largest oil shale endeavours in terms of funding, stating that it has received $2.2 billion from international, Chinese, Malaysian and Estonian companies. 

 

The IPP has generation capacity of 470MW. Based on 45% equity interest, YTL Power's effective capacity is 212 MW. (For comparison purpose, Jaks and MFCB's effective capacity is 360 MW and 260 MW respectively).

   

According to this 2017 article, the 45% stake is expected to generate profit of USD47 mil upon full completion. Based on 4.1 exchange rate, it works out to be RM192 mil. 

 

(Please note the article below is quite old, dated 2017)

 

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on March 20 - 26, 2017.

 

YTL Power International Bhd has been a relatively lacklustre counter for investors. Between the sluggish take-off of its mobile broadband network, YES 4G, and the stark absence of new power projects, the group lacks a growth story compelling enough for investors.

The good news is that YTL Power expects to turn the corner, but it will take another three years to do so.

Last week, the company announced the successful financial close of its US$2.1 billion power venture in Jordan’s Attarat Power Company.

YTL Power will have a 45% stake in the 554mw (gross capacity) oil shale-fuelled mine mouth power plant project. China’s Guangdong Yudean Group Co Ltd will have 45% equity interest while Estonia’s Eesti Energia AS will hold the remaining 10% stake.

The financial close is a major milestone for the project, which has been in the works as far back as 2008. YTL Power only became involved in 2011. With the financing in place, construction is expected to begin later this year and conclude in late 2020.

So, how will Attarat fare?

A key selling point of the project is that it is entirely denominated in US dollars.

“Where else can you find a 30-year concession project that is in US dollars?” YTL Power executive director Yeoh Seok Hong points out.

“When we first began negotiating for this power plant, the exchange rate (ringgit versus US dollars) was only 3.10. Today, it is around 4.45,” he says.

On top of that, Yeoh guides that Attarat is expected to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) in the mid-teens. This does not include the IRR of the oil shale mining operation that accompanies the plant.

Assuming a modest 5% IRR for the mining operation, the entire project looks to be highly lucrative for YTL Power.

Based on a total IRR of 20%, a back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that YTL Power’s share of the earnings will be around US$47 million a year. This is based on the 25:75 equity-to-debt ratio for the project, which works out to be a US$236 million equity investment from YTL Power.

The project is also attractive from a risk perspective. After all, it is fully guaranteed by the Jordanian government.

“The financing is only for 15 years. This includes about four years for construction. That means this project will be able to pay off the debt in about 11 years. After that, everything will be free cash flow,” explains Yeoh.

 

 

4. Concluding Remarks

 

(a) At current all time low share price and after factoring in expected contribution from APCO, YTL Power is an attractive investment proposition for me. Earning wise, the APCO profit coming in next year will make it very defensive, despite the expected continued weakness of its Singaporean and Yes 4G divisions.

 

(b) The coming 12th December 2019 UK election will be a very important event to watch. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn is a radical leftist. He vows to nationalise utilities such as post and water, etc.

In my opinion, this particular risk is mitigated by the fact that UK has strong Rule of Law tradition. So in the event that Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister, it will have to overcome many obstacles to implement his Socialist policies.

First of all, he needs to get approval from Parliament (which he is expected to be a minority government, even if he managed to snatch power). And then there is the Judiciary, which is expected to have a say on pricing, etc. So, I don't really worry too much about this particular risk.

In addition, according to various polls, the Conservative Party (which traditionally is the ruling party) is leading Labour by a huge margin. So, the risk of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM is really not that high.

(Jeremy Corbyn, YTL Power's nemesis)

 

(c) In view of the foregoing, I have decided to add YTL Power to my portfolio. The coming quarter result might not be pretty as 60% owned Yes 4G's performance is expected to be horrible. But due to the expected 2020 APCO catalyst, any weakness will be opportunity for me to buy more, provided 12 December UK election result is ok.

 

Labels: YTLPOWR
  4 people like this.
 
DK Is the concession based on "take or pay" basis ?
25/11/2019 11:29 AM
Icon8888 to be honest, I never check woh (will be surprise if YTL spend so much money without take or pay)

but the article did mention "Guaranteed by Jordan government"

: P
25/11/2019 11:32 AM
Sslee Dear Icon8888,
Mind sharing is oil shale mining a profitable business? What is the expected or measured reserved for this oil shale? Able to mine for 30 years?
25/11/2019 11:45 AM
Icon8888 sslee you have to learn NOT to micro manage

get the big picture right, and let go of the smaller issues

otherwise you won't be able to move

it is called Paralysis by Analysis
25/11/2019 11:49 AM
Sslee Hahahaha Icon8888,
USA now only build combine cycle NG power plant. Just curosity why USA never built oil shale power plant.
25/11/2019 11:56 AM
Sslee Dear Icon8888,
Below link on the power plant.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_in_Jordan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attarat_Power_Plant
25/11/2019 12:31 PM
Patrick13 I bought YTLP also bcoz this reason but my entry price is before dividend date.
25/11/2019 1:09 PM
abang_misai Thank you sir for this wonderful finding.
26/11/2019 8:04 PM
Henry8833 Dear Ion8888, maybe you miss out Indonesia plant and its profit potential...
27/11/2019 6:40 PM
Henry8833 I also bought this share when it was 75 sen, after ex dividend, the price never move and i continue to buy below 70 sen. I merely bought because of attractive div yields and believe price bottomed. And lots of my friends are losing money and on the principle of be greedy when others are fearful. Hope my bet is correct in next 1 year...
27/11/2019 6:52 PM
BlessedInvestor Thank you Icon8888 for good write up. Possible to include Indonesia power project? It will make YTL Power even more attractive in mid turn....
27/11/2019 11:48 PM
newbie911 Pound going all...buy call?
13/12/2019 10:59 AM
Icon8888 Yes can buy

Limited downside as Jordan‘s Attarat Power alone will contribute RM200 mil net profit next year
13/12/2019 11:01 AM
newbie911 YTL Power shares fell 4.1% to close at RM1.39 on Friday following the UK referendum.

Tht time 2016.

Now price only Rm0.69

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/28/ytl-power-unable-to-quantify-how-much-brexit-will-impact-the-group
13/12/2019 11:26 AM
abang_misai Balun this stock. Bottom uncovered. worst case we sit here to kutip dividen.
13/12/2019 12:44 PM

(Icon) Why You Should Learn To Invest In Overseas Stocks

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 19 Nov 2019, 9:26 AM


1. Misperception

 

All this while, I invested only in Bursa Malaysia. Occasionally, I saw people wrote articles about investing overseas such as US, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc. I seldom paid attention. To quote a relative of mine, "I would rather stay within my circle of competence."

 

And also, Malaysia is a developing nation, that is where the growth is going to be, right ? As an investor that craves capital gain, why would I want to invest in blue chips in developed countries such as the US ? They are mostly sleepy giants, aren't they ?

 

How wrong have I been.

 

 

2. Plenty of Multi Baggers

 

Last year I spoke to a friend that happened to have invested in US stocks. Nothing fancy or exotic, just some well known names such as Apple, Broadcom, Disney, etc. He told me he made quite a bit of money. Out of curiosity, I studied the historical prices of some famous names. It struck me how easy it is to find Multi Baggers.  

 

(Over the past 10 years, Adobe share price rose from USD30 to USD297, a gain of 900%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Airbus share price rose from EUR11 to EUR136, a gain of 1,136%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Amazon share price rose from USD138 to USD1,739 a gain of 1,160%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Apple share price rose from USD13 to USD265, a gain of 1,900%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Boeing share price rose from USD42 to USD371, a gain of 783%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Booking share price rose from USD91 to USD1,848, a gain of 1,900%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Broadcom share price rose from USD17 to USD312, a gain of 1,700%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Microsoft share price rose from USD20 to USD150, a gain of 650%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, TSM share price rose from USD8.5 to USD53, a gain of 523%)

 

(Over the past 10 years, Disney share price rose from USD23 to USD144, a gain of 526%)

 

 

3. Key Observations

 

(i) Unlike in Malaysia, multi-baggers are much much more abundant in developed countries. This comes as a shock to most of us. Aren't the US and Europe matured economies ? Why are their companies growing so well ?

 

Because of two reasons : (a) These companies have moat. As such, they are able to register compounded growth over an extended period of time. (b) Despite from developed countries, these companies are world class and sell their products and services all over the world. There is no limit to their market size.

 

(ii) Fair enough, PE multiples of these companies are not low. They range from 20 times to 50 times. But this is the characteristics of strong companies. When you invest in good stocks, don't expect to buy cheap. You are supposed to pay a fair price for quality. Since they are growth companies, over the years their earning will catch up, making your original cost of investment looked cheap.

 

 

4. Concluding Remarks

 

(a) There are two ways you can invest in the stock market.

 

The first way is Value Investing. You buy stocks that are undervalued, wait for them to be re-rated within one to two years (sometime it takes shorter or longer than that), then you sell them and switch to other undervalued stocks, when the opportunity arise.

 

The second way is Growth Investing. You buy stocks that have moat. You hold on to them for ten to twenty years, or even longer. Due to earning growth, the stock price will rise conitnuously and deliver you few hundred to few thousands percent return.

 

(b) I practise both Value Investing and Growth Investing.

 

For Value Investing, I stick to Bursa Malaysia.

 

For Growth Investing, I will park my money with great stocks in developed economies such as US, Europe, Japan, etc. Why not Malaysia ? Because based on my observations, very few Malaysian companies have moat. The chance of picking wrong stocks is much higher compared to those in developed countries. The last thing I want is to hold on to a stock for 10 years only to find out that I was wrong, and the stock stagnated and did not generate the return I aim for.     

 

(c) For my foreign portfolio, I will not put my money in developing economies (Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc). Companies in these economies are likely similar to Malaysia. It is likely that not many will have real moat, and very few will eventually become multi baggers. For Value Investing involving switching from one stock to another every one to two years (not due to lack of patience, but due to cyclicality), I would rather play at my homeground, Malaysia whereby I will have the advantage of familiarity. 

  12 people like this.
 
Icon8888 Take it easy Ricky
19/11/2019 12:33 PM
Sslee Hahahaha
Icon8888 is now promoting capital flight from Bursa. No eye see on bursa already.
By the way I think US market bubble is growing bigger and bigger hope Incon8888 is not a running bull in a china store
19/11/2019 12:59 PM
Icon8888 I am suggesting people consider overseas

But no recommendation on when or where to enter

Investing is a life long undertaking. Many years ahead
19/11/2019 1:22 PM
Targeted Hehehe, Icon please change yr profile photo. Hard to explain but its uncomfortable
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Icon8888 Finally, you acknowledged growth investing. Welcome to my investing world and circle.
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

"When you invest in good stocks, don't expect to buy cheap. You are supposed to pay a fair price for quality. Since they are growth companies, over the years their earning will catch up, making your original cost of investment looked cheap."

>>>



Over the long term, great companies grow their intrinsic values, making their initial prices looking like bargains. Icon8888 is becoming interesting: a heuristic change.
19/11/2019 1:47 PM
Icon8888 that is Calvintaneng photo

========

Targeted Hehehe, Icon please change yr profile photo. Hard to explain but its uncomfortable
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
19/11/2019 1:58 PM
lching hahaha.......
19/11/2019 2:07 PM
Icon8888 you cannot be more wrong, I don't really belong to your world and circle

I have explained many times to you that I am not against Buffetology whereby you buy good companies at fair price and hold on for long term so as to enjoy compounded growth year after year. I think it is a fantastic concept

I disagree with you on two things :

(1) how you practise Buffetology. Your Nestle is a good company, but it is trading at 50 times PER, and its only market is Malaysia. As such, it is difficult to convince me that it will continue to grow and deliver capital gain over extended period of time. At most, it will be paying you good dividend (which is not so fantastic, for me).

(2) the way you condemn anything other than Growth Investing. I am open minded and accept both Growth Investing and Value Investing as valid investment philosophy.



3iii Icon8888 Finally, you acknowledged growth investing. Welcome to my investing world and circle.
19/11/2019 1:43 PM
19/11/2019 2:25 PM
RainT overseas market is to vast and complicated

need spend lots of time & effort to monitor

buy unit trust that have overseas exposure is smarter choice
19/11/2019 2:46 PM
RainT dont have much time to study overseas stocks

buy mutual fund is better
19/11/2019 2:51 PM
Icon8888 "overseas market is to vast and complicated "

That was exactly how I felt at the beginning (please read Section 1 of my article)

However, after I started investing overseas, I realised that due to the high quality of the companies (applicable to those strong companies in US), stock picking has actually become substantially less complicated

there are less risk factors to be considered

that is why in the Concluding Remarks, I mentioned that I will only invest in strong stocks in developed countries

so far, my only pick is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. It fulfils the criteria for long term hold due to its technological supremacy that almost makes it a monopoly OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AT LEAST
19/11/2019 2:53 PM
casualplay888 Icon8888 sifu, u bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing from Taiwan stock market or the US stock market? I think it is also good to invest in Taiwan
19/11/2019 3:31 PM
UnicornP Icon's article only applicable to the top 2% of Malaysians who are extremely knowledgeable and filthy rich.
19/11/2019 3:59 PM
wiki123 Icon, I support you... when you go to overseas investing, one will discover the number of quality companies that's available... watchout for Disney too...
19/11/2019 5:00 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

Icon8888

I disagree with you on two things :

(1) how you practise Buffetology. Your Nestle is a good company, but it is trading at 50 times PER, and its only market is Malaysia. As such, it is difficult to convince me that it will continue to grow and deliver capital gain over extended period of time. At most, it will be paying you good dividend (which is not so fantastic, for me).

(2) the way you condemn anything other than Growth Investing. I am open minded and accept both Growth Investing and Value Investing as valid investment philosophy.

>>>>



Welcome all the same to the world of quality growth investing. Stay with quality for the long term. Generally you do not have to sell.
19/11/2019 5:20 PM
Sslee Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
19/11/2019 5:25 PM
stockraider Thats why i say u must use peter lynch strategy instead of buffet strategy bcos LYNCH offer u more investment choices mah...!!

Posted by Sslee > Nov 19, 2019 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
19/11/2019 5:28 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>
Posted by Sslee > Nov 19, 2019 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
>>>>


The power of compounding long-term is truly amazing. Beats these short term gains many hundreds of time over each year.
19/11/2019 5:29 PM
stockraider If u can get more than 100% in 4 mts like armada...are u not compounding leh ??

Posted by 3iii > Nov 19, 2019 5:29 PM | Report Abuse

>>>>
Posted by Sslee > Nov 19, 2019 5:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
3iii, Incon8888's gruesome stock Armada is now RM 0.53.
>>>>


The power of compounding long-term is truly amazing. Beats these short term gains many hundreds of time over each year.
19/11/2019 5:31 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Everytime my portfolio value doubled, the incremental value of the last doubling period exceeds the gains derived from all the period before since inception of my portfolio.

That is the true power of compounding over the long term.
19/11/2019 5:35 PM
stockraider U slowly tunggu loh...NESTLE PE 50x will take at least 30 yrs to double loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Nov 19, 2019 5:35 PM | Report Abuse

Everytime my portfolio value doubled, the incremental value of the last doubling period exceeds the gains derived from all the period before since inception of my portfolio.

That is the true power of compounding over the long term.
19/11/2019 5:37 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>

stockraider U slowly tunggu loh...NESTLE PE 50x will take at least 30 yrs to double loh....!!

>>>>


Since 2009, Nestle price has gone up 7 multibaggers. At every price, raider asked those with Nestle to sell!
19/11/2019 5:46 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Raider should be honest.

Nestle has delivered hugely to its long term investors.
19/11/2019 6:00 PM
i3lurker lack of sleep shortens lifespan irrevocably
takes more than 2 weeks to recover disturbed sleep patterns
rich people are usually educated nowadays.
the illiterate rich have all died
educated people know how to take care of health.

for the rich, there is no reason to invest in the US.

for the poor, they just cannot afford it.

leaving just those extra greedy semi-rich people who want more money at the expense of shorter lifespan. Die faster never mind. The money fanatics.
19/11/2019 7:08 PM
probability wei..is that image really calvintan? but it matches the image i had on him quite closely!...really handsome man.

the singer who sang pen-pineapple-pen also looks similar i think...cant remember!

Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 19, 2019 1:58 PM | Report Abuse

that is Calvintaneng photo

========
19/11/2019 7:58 PM
probability I think those accumulated reasonable capital from local stocks...should venture overseas slowly with small capital first...to feel the depth of the water...at least for 6 months...before going heavy...

Icon, soojinhou...kindly post your recommendations in i3...
easy for part-time man like me to monitor in a single location.
19/11/2019 8:01 PM
JN88 Malaysia stock:
1. Boss earn money for continuously few years positive net profit and thinking to listed in KLSE.
2. After listed in Bursa, Boss start how to draw the graft, earn huge profit, high enumeration and so etc.
3. This cycle can repeat at least 10-20 years.
4.No value, less dividend, less attractive.

US stock:
1. Boss start a business, the whole mindset is thinking about creating value.(this value mean value and impact to society but not the money value)
2. After company get profit, boss absorb more talent, R & D creating more value.
3. The counter in US basically have 2 important characteristics (cpital growth and dividend growth)
4. The rise in stock price is not cycle or goreng , but the value they sell their service to entire world.
20/11/2019 10:51 AM
JN88 IN Malaysia: Many good company creating value...but wrong marketing in whole world and less creativity...

Eg. Topglov, Kossan, Airasia, Penta....Only Glove company in Malaysia creating value. But the power is too low...For Airasia, due to political issue.....

The should learn, AIA, ALlianz, GE how they penetrated into other country even their own country have their own firm.
20/11/2019 10:55 AM
stncws kyy should go...he will win 1b....instead win 100m here
20/11/2019 11:02 AM
ongth60 you can trade with etrade. just open a trading account outside...just be aware that trading involve the risk of "currency exchange" on top of the stock performance.
20/11/2019 1:07 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Nestle up RM 1.80

RM 28.5 million worth of shares traded so far today.
20/11/2019 4:01 PM
Darius Tanz Any recommendation on a good, low cost broker to invest in foreign equity? I trade options with saxotrader and tastyworks. Both aren't so great for long term investing because of the maintenance costs. There is saxo investor which looks great but it's not available in Malaysia. TD ameritrade seems reasonable, I'm in the process of opening an account with them. Anyone uses TD? Or hv other suggestions.

I use maybank to invest in bursa. I hv a foreign trading account but it seems too much of a hassle and even my remiser doesn't suggest I use it.
20/11/2019 5:35 PM
Choivo Capital I agree with most of your points.

And my comments are similar to ricky's.

Anybody who is looking for a broker, go for interactive brokers.
20/11/2019 7:25 PM
Choivo Capital As soojinhou said,

PE 10 in malaysia is actually not that cheap, when interest rates are 3%, you are getting a premium of only 7% assuming you are perfectly right and the money is reinvested right.
20/11/2019 7:28 PM
wantousek wat broker do u recommend for overseas trade? tdameritrade?
21/11/2019 12:00 AM
leno just a simple reminder : if u cannot make money in your own tuff .. u cannot make in other ppl, if u lose money in your tuff, u will lose even more .. on top of poor info, late news, poor grasp of other country, foreign exchange eating up your money, got scammed, any development u will be the last to received, ... i've known personally a lot of ppl ... real ppl ... who started with bursa, go to FX, then oversea stock, then option, then ... disappear. THEY LOSE and LOSE and LOSE. One thing they wish ... to turn back the time, and never touch anything at all. These are TRUE STORIES. Sekian.
21/11/2019 9:33 AM
Icon8888 leno, my article says that you should invest in good foreign companies that can be held for real long term so as to enjoy compounded growth (I argue that such companies are rare in Malaysia, it is like looking for fish in desert)

I never ask people to punt forex, option, or speculative trade at foreign market

for those kind of activities, do it in Malaysia, if you want, so as to enjoy home advantage

I thought my article makes it very clear ?
21/11/2019 9:54 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>

Posted by leno > Nov 21, 2019 9:33 AM | Report Abuse

just a simple reminder : if u cannot make money in your own tuff .. u cannot make in other ppl, if u lose money in your tuff, u will lose even more .. on top of poor info, late news, poor grasp of other country, foreign exchange eating up your money, got scammed, any development u will be the last to received, ... i've known personally a lot of ppl ... real ppl ... who started with bursa, go to FX, then oversea stock, then option, then ... disappear. THEY LOSE and LOSE and LOSE. One thing they wish ... to turn back the time, and never touch anything at all. These are TRUE STORIES. Sekian.

>>>>>



I have to agree with Leno totally.

You will know the local companies a lot better than the foreign ones.

As long as these companies are "WITHIN YOUR CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE", you will do alright.
21/11/2019 11:18 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>


Posted by Icon8888 > Nov 21, 2019 9:54 AM | Report Abuse

leno, my article says that you should invest in good foreign companies that can be held for real long term so as to enjoy compounded growth (I argue that such companies are rare in Malaysia, it is like looking for fish in desert)

I never ask people to punt forex, option, or speculative trade at foreign market

for those kind of activities, do it in Malaysia, if you want, so as to enjoy home advantage

I thought my article makes it very clear ?

>>>


This post reveals a lot of the person and his investing. Rather mixed up thinking.



Let me just share a very simple statement of Buffett and the offered the reason why this statement is so powerful and rewarding, for those who understands it.

"It is better to buy and own a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Avoid a gruesome company at any price."

A wonderful company (a great company) grows its intrinsic value over a long time. You are buying into its earning power long term. Long term investing into these compounders offer a BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY.

MARGIN OF SAFETY is the 3 most important words of the book Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. It is this BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY that has reduced by risks in long term investing and at the same time, rewarded my investing over the long term.
21/11/2019 11:27 AM
stockmanmy I have nothing to add
TSMC also doing well. I have reserved 10% for TSMC, still got 90% to trade/ speculate in Malaysia.
21/11/2019 12:12 PM
untong I like Icon8888 open minded and humble, most importantly willing to share :)

I dont know about moat but i do know those companies like Airbus/Boeing, Adobe/Microsoft do have global moat. If i open an airline company, where else i buy airplane other than Airbus/Boeing?
If i open a company need softwares to install on the PCs, wherelse i go other than Adobe/Microsoft etc.Same goes to TSMC hehehe, Such companies are really not easy to find in Malaysia market.

I believe in business world if there is no growth,the value will be destructed over time. 逆水行舟,不进则退。 So growth is always no.1 priority then only how much to pay for it :)

Btw what is the difference of TSMC listed in Taiwan and listed in NYSE?
21/11/2019 1:24 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

3. Key Observations



(i) Unlike in Malaysia, multi-baggers are much much more abundant in developed countries. This comes as a shock to most of us. Aren't the US and Europe matured economies ? Why are their companies growing so well ?



Because of two reasons : (a) These companies have moat. As such, they are able to register compounded growth over an extended period of time. (b) Despite from developed countries, these companies are world class and sell their products and services all over the world. There is no limit to their market size.



(ii) Fair enough, PE multiples of these companies are not low. They range from 20 times to 50 times. But this is the characteristics of strong companies. When you invest in good stocks, don't expect to buy cheap. You are supposed to pay a fair price for quality. Since they are growth companies, over the years their earning will catch up, making your original cost of investment looked cheap.

>>>>


I think icon8888 has to reexamine some of his investment premise. He has expressed all the above observations correctly. Then he chopped his own feet, when he opined, "but there are very few of these companies in Bursa."

If you cannot find or cannot love such companies in Bursa, you are also most likely to miss such companies in other stock markets too.

Since the 2000s, I have mentioned many times, there are only about 20 or so stocks in Bursa which you can hold long term because of their durable competitive advantages or economic moats. We have multi-baggers in Bursa too, just than icon8888's investing plans do not avail him to invest or own them, thus, missing these altogether.
21/11/2019 3:28 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

(a) There are two ways you can invest in the stock market.



The first way is Value Investing. You buy stocks that are undervalued, wait for them to be re-rated within one to two years (sometime it takes shorter or longer than that), then you sell them and switch to other undervalued stocks, when the opportunity arise.



The second way is Growth Investing. You buy stocks that have moat. You hold on to them for ten to twenty years, or even longer. Due to earning growth, the stock price will rise conitnuously and deliver you few hundred to few thousands percent return.

>>>>



I do both of these too. However, the major portion of my portfolio are into winners in growth stocks (slow growers, stalwarts and fast growers). Turnarounds, cyclicals and asset plays are sometimes in my portfolio. For example: Hai-O when it turned around in early 2005, Guan Chong in the last cyclical upturn, KAF for its undervalued land asset in KLCC area, etc.

But for long term growth in value of your portfolio, stay with great companies that can continue to grow, even if slowly.
21/11/2019 3:35 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>

(b) I practise both Value Investing and Growth Investing.



For Value Investing, I stick to Bursa Malaysia.



For Growth Investing, I will park my money with great stocks in developed economies such as US, Europe, Japan, etc. Why not Malaysia ? Because based on my observations, very few Malaysian companies have moat. The chance of picking wrong stocks is much higher compared to those in developed countries. The last thing I want is to hold on to a stock for 10 years only to find out that I was wrong, and the stock stagnated and did not generate the return I aim for.



(c) For my foreign portfolio, I will not put my money in developing economies (Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, etc). Companies in these economies are likely similar to Malaysia. It is likely that not many will have real moat, and very few will eventually become multi baggers. For Value Investing involving switching from one stock to another every one to two years (not due to lack of patience, but due to cyclicality), I would rather play at my homeground, Malaysia whereby I will have the advantage of familiarity.

>>>



As for icon's above thinking, I have to agree with Leno's comments.

If you are not able to find great stocks in Bursa, you are also unlikely to love these stocks that are in other stock markets. Your thema of investing prevents you from liking them, thus, you are more likely to dislike them than to like them, given your reasoning.

Just look at calvin, he continues to come out with promotions of the most gruesome stocks. He is what he is and we should not be surprised by his liking of these stocks. He will never be able to appreciate the great stocks that I like.

Also, I must say icon's comments on the differences in our market and foreign markets are not rational. He should examine himself, his investing philosophy and method. After all, the greatest risk in investing is ONESELF.
21/11/2019 3:40 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ FRIDAY, 1 AUGUST 2008
Investment Policies (Based on Benjamin Graham)
Summary of Investment Policies

A. INVESTMENT FOR FIXED INCOME:
US Savings Bonds (FDs or Amanah Sahams for Malaysians)

B. INVESTMENT FOR INCOME, MODERATE LONG-TERM APPRECIATION AND PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION:
(1) INVESTMENT FUNDS bought at reasonable price.
(2) Diversified list of primary common stocks (BLUE CHIPS) bought at reasonable price.

C. INVESTMENT CHIEFLY FOR PROFIT: 4 approaches are open to both the small and the large investors:
(1) Representative common stocks bought when the MARKET level is clearly LOW.
(2) GROWTH STOCKS, when these can be obtained at reasonable prices in relation to actual accomplishment – GROWTH INVESTING.
(3) Purchase of securities selling well BELOW INTRINSIC VALUE – VALUE INVESTING.
(4) Purchase of WELL-SECURED PRIVILEGED SENIOR ISSUES (bonds and preferred shares).
(5) SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Mergers, arbitrages, cash pay-outs.

D. SPECULATION:
(1) Buying stock in new or virtually new ventures (IPOs) .
(2) TRADING in the market.
(3) Purchase of "GROWTH STOCKS" at GENEROUS PRICES.


_______________


For DEFENSIVE INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B
(Portfolio A: Cash, FDs, Bonds Portfolio B: Mutual funds, Blue chips)

For ENTERPRISING INVESTORS: Portfolio A & B & C
(Portfolio C: Buy in Low Market, Buy Growth stocks at fair value, Buy value stocks i.e. bargains, High grade bonds and preferred shares, Arbitrages)

For SPECULATORS: Portfolio D
(Should set aside a sum for this separate from their money in investing.)

________________
________________


Types of Investors

Graham felt that individual investors fell into two camps : "defensive" investors and "aggressive" or "enterprising" investors.

These two groups are distinguished not by the amount of risk they are willing to take, but rather by the amount of "intelligent effort" they are "willing and able to bring to bear on the task."

Thus, for instance, he included in the defensive investor category professionals (his example--a doctor) unable to devote much time to the process and young investors (his example--a sharp young executive interested in finance) who are as-yet unfamiliar and inexperienced with investing.

Graham felt that the defensive investor should confine his holdings to the shares of important companies with a long record of profitable operations and that are in strong financial condition. By "important," he meant one of substantial size and with a leading position in the industry, ranking among the first quarter or first third in size within its industry group.

Aggressive investors, Graham felt, could expand their universe substantially, but purchases should be attractively priced as established by intelligent analysis. He also suggested that aggressive investors avoid new issues.



http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/08/investment-policies-based-on-benjamin.html
This was the first article posted on my blog.
21/11/2019 3:45 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ Your investment goals determine which stocks to include in your portfolio


The investment goals you have established are another important ingredient in determining which stocks to include in your portfolio.

If your investment goals are primarily long-term in nature, you should build a stock portfolio that is best able to meet these long-term goals. Choose the stocks of companies that have good long-term growth prospects.

If your main investment goal is to enjoy a stable source of current income, you should own stocks that pay liberal but secure dividends.


Keep in mind that constructing a portfolio of stocks that meets your investment goals does not lessen the need to maintain a diversified portfolio.
22/11/2019 11:01 AM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
22/11/2019 11:06 AM
tracy92 icon, can I have ur view in Kobay? Result looks good. Are u still holding?
22/11/2019 7:15 PM
sniper123 hi icon
wa

just curious, wats ur take on inari after yesterday big selloff???
20/12/2019 10:17 AM

(Icon) Alliance Bank - One Off Provision Affected Previous Quarter Earning. Time To Buy On Weakness

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 13 Nov 2019, 10:24 AM


A good stock is one that provides reasonable return with minimal risk.

 

Most of the time in the past few years, Alliance Bank traded above RM4.00 per share. It is now trading at RM2.85.

 

 

In the recent two quarters, it posted a drop in earning. This is especially the case for the quarter ended June 2019, whereby its earning dropped from the customary RM140 mil per quarter to RM77 mil (EPS of 5 sen only). This caused investors to panic and sold down the stock heavily.

 

 

But if you take a closer look, the lower profit was due to RM74.9 mil provisioning for a few big loans, which is one off. The following is extracted from the company's press release :

 

 

Analysts expect earnings to normalise going forward :

 

(Kenanga IB, 30 October 2019)

 

(Hong Leong IB, 9 October 2019)

 

(Public IB, 28 August 2019)

 

With estimated DPS of 16 sen, dividend yield at current price is approximately 5.6%.

 

Alliance Bank is owned and controlled by Singapore's Temasek. First class management, of course.

Labels: ABMB
  3 people like this.
 
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Icon, Alliance is impacted (loan loss provisions) due to their huge exposures to London Biscuits
13/11/2019 11:08 AM
Choivo Capital Accurate.
13/11/2019 5:17 PM
Connie555 Now no more saying people pump and dump? now say people accurate pulak? no say people accumulated a lot then share this post? where u learn ur manners...suddenly so polite. just curious no offence, I am glad that choivo finally learn some manners
14/11/2019 12:12 AM
supersaiyan3 Ngam.
14/11/2019 12:28 AM
ahbah Banks ... buy n keep forever
14/11/2019 8:50 AM
supersaiyan3 Looks like Icon still got some credibility.
14/11/2019 1:25 PM
TECHfullyBREWED Premium analysis
14/11/2019 3:41 PM
supersaiyan3 Yours JAKS is doing well, congratulations!!!!
15/11/2019 9:41 AM
i3lurker Jaks ?
price went up coz company no money forced to sell carparks
malaysians have car park fetish so pumped price up
15/11/2019 5:22 PM
sc Khaw sailang sailang
20/11/2019 11:26 AM
stock_investor Buy on weakness. Still good buy.
06/12/2019 6:37 PM
Sslee Hahahaha i3lurker,
When financial tsunami hit the shore many performance loans with become non-performance loans. One off provision will become many off provisions.
06/12/2019 6:49 PM

(Icon) Sam Engineering - An Overlooked Semicon Play

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 22 Oct 2019, 10:35 AM


1. A Laggard ?

 

Many semiconductor stocks had been re-rated recently. In my opinion, Sam Engineering is one laggard that has been overlooked.

 

 

 

2. Historical Profitability

 

The following is Sam Engineering's recent few quarters' result :

 

Key observations :-

 

(a) Sam Engineering derived a significant amount of profit from semiconductor equipment manufacturing. In FY2019, out of segmental profit of RM97 mil, RM41 mil was attributable to semiconductor equipment manufacturing (42% of total profit). Aerospace division accounted for 58%.

 

(b) Same as many other companies, Sam's semiconductor equipment division did not perform well in March 2019 quarter. If not because of the gain on disposal of properties amounted to RM9.1 mil, segmental profit would be RM6 mil only, almost half of its normal profit of RM12 mil per quarter (please refer to thick line boxes). 

 

(c) However, the worst should be over. In the June 2019 quarter, Sam reported strong core EPS of 14.9 sen. Its semiconductor equipment division's earning normalised to the usual RM10 mil range.

 

 

3. Strong Capex 

 

The group has been spending heavily on capex in recent few years. This augurs well for future growth.

 

 

 

4. Concluding Remarks

 

Over the next few years, the aerospace division will be busy executing its massive RM3 bil contracts.

 

The semiconductor equipment division will benefit from the coming 5G super boom cycle. 

 

At current price of RM8.00, the stock is trading at 13 times PER (based on 15 sen EPS annualised = 60 sen). Based on my exprience, as its EPS grows in the coming years, PE multiple will also expand as market gets excited about its prospects. I think Target Price of RM12.00 within two years is not impossible.

 

Buy at own risk.  

 

https://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/SAMEE-25th-AGM-Presentation-Post-Discussion-As-at-21-August-2019-R.._.pdf

Labels: SAM
  3 people like this.
 
Op3rs Sam have 2 legs, one leg is Aerospace and the other equipment (semiconductor & hdd)

Sales of aerospace parts will be further increased next year (2020) due to the followings

There will be an airshow site in December in dubai on november 17th-21st which in 2017, airbus recorded a total of 510 new air plane orders.

The need to start replacing older model airplanes, with the new fuel-efficiency airplanes throughout 2020-2030.

Increase in demand for hdds due to the adoption of 5g technology worldwide will boost its equipment segment's revenue.

With both legs running at high speed, god knows how fast it can go :)
22/10/2019 11:51 AM
ITreeinvestor B737Max is a time bomb.
22/10/2019 2:17 PM
ITreeinvestor Look at this , 80% from Boeing order book belong to 737. what happen if 737 stop production?

737* 4,703
747 822
767 103
777 441
787 624
22/10/2019 2:27 PM
Icon8888 Read this

https://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/SAMEE-25th-AGM-Presentation-Post-Discussion-As-at-21-August-2019-R.._.pdf

It said 737 max less than 10% revenue
22/10/2019 2:40 PM
Icon8888 Quote “Boeing 737Max contributed <10% of SAMEE FY2019 Revenue”
22/10/2019 2:41 PM
Op3rs Boeing 737Max contributed <10% of SAMEE FY2019 Revenue

this was presented in 2019 presentation slides of SAM.
22/10/2019 2:43 PM
ITreeinvestor Yes, it seem like conflict between their own wording.
How can 4703 Order book contributed less than 10% ?
22/10/2019 3:46 PM
Icon8888 737max is just one of many types of 737
22/10/2019 4:03 PM
ITreeinvestor oh, if that is the case, then Sam is a good bet with recovery of semicon + aero CAGR 4% .
I'm in.
22/10/2019 5:19 PM
22/10/2019 8:02 PM
Choivo Capital Looks nice.
23/10/2019 1:21 PM
Smartinvestor2030 Post removed. Why?
23/10/2019 4:57 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I totally did not know they did semiconductor business. All this while when i visited their plant in penang I only thought they did fabrication of the hard disk drive pins and metal spring miniature steel fabs.

which part of semiconductors do they produce?
23/10/2019 7:27 PM
paperplane not cheap enough
24/10/2019 5:29 PM
pamaladu If not mistaken, they only make machines for front end and back end semicon manufacturers
29/10/2019 8:18 AM
Icon8888 LOL what do you mean ONLY ?

Front end and back end means cover everything already (they do make HDD components)
29/10/2019 12:31 PM
pamaladu "only" not necessary a bad thing. merely emphasize they are not making semicon end products. they "only" make the equipments which is a niche market but there are a few big players out there. from annual report 2018 onwards, can see SAM gaining momentum, widening scope with existing customer and winning new big customers.
29/10/2019 3:50 PM

(Icon) Why I Am So Keen About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 29 Aug 2019, 12:03 PM


I bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) recently at USD42 per share. It is listed on New York Stock Exchange. Its market cap is USD200 bil while historical PER is approximately 18 times.

 

TSMC is principally involved in chips fabrication (a so called chip foundry). The famous Integrated Circuit (IC) companies that we know nowadays such as AMD, HiSilicon (Huawei), Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia are actually fabless chip companies. They are involved in design and marketing of the chips but they don't have their own manufacturing facilities. They outsource the manufacturing to chip foundries. TSMC is the biggest among them all (48% market share), followed by Samsung (19%), Global Foundries (8%), UMC (7%), SMIC (5%), etc.

 

(Intel is the very rare case of chip company which still has its own chip foundry, but it is behind TSMC in terms of technological leadership and is struggling with its latest most advanced node).

 

 

There used to be many chip foundries. However, as technology advances and Transistors get smaller and smaller, it becomes increasingly expensive to manufacture chips (requires huge capex and investment in R&D). Companies dropped out of the race one by one. The latest to quit is Global Foundries which announced in August 2018 that it will no longer pursue the 7nm manufacturing process so as to preserve resources for the more profitable, less advanced 14nm segment.

 

 

Pursuant thereto, the world is now left with only two chip foundries for advanced nodes (7nm and below) : TSMC and Samsung. Between the two, TSMC is the stronger party. It has the following advantages :-

 

(a) bigger market share (48% vs. Samsung's 19%);

 

(b) independence. Samsung has its own chips business. If you are a chip company (let's say, Apple), Samsung will be able to know how your chips work if you outsource the fabrication to them. TSMC does not have this problem. It is an independent foundry with totally no interest in any IC brand; and

 
(c) more advanced technology. Most of the time, it is ahead of Samsung, with better production yield and technological solutions. The video below dated 22 August 2019 discusses how Samsung is currently facing problems with its 7nm manufacturing process :

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT-cwb_JkTA&app=desktop

 

Why am I so bullish about TSMC ? Because it is expected to do well in the immediate term (as soon as coming quarter) as well as the medium and longer term.

 

Short Term Positives

 

TSMC's latest most advanced technology : 7nm manufacturing process is very well received by the market. Many chip companies rush to place orders with them. Having the latest fabrication process is no longer a luxury for chip companies, it is a necessity for market leadership.

 

A case in point is AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). For many years, AMD has been lagging behind Intel. However, since outsourcing manufacturing to TSMC in 2018 using the 7nm process, AMD's chips has overtaken Intel in terms of pricing and performance. Its share price has risen by more than 200% since 2018. Intel, on the other hand, is facing stagnation.

 

Please refer to charts below.

 

 

 

It is no more an expectation, the strong demand for 7nm chips is being reflected in TSMC's latest sales figures. Please refer to article below.

 

TSMC is expected to enjoy substantial revenue growth starting August with the momentum to continue through the last quarter of 2019, according to market watchers, who expect the pure-play foundry to post record-high sales for the fourth quarter.

TSMC has disclosed July revenues slipped 1.3% sequentially to NT$84.76 billion (US$2.7 billion).

TSMC's monthly revenues are set to top NT$100 billion in August and September, said the watchers, adding that revenues for the fourth quarter are expected to grow more robustly. Strong demand for 7nm chips will be driving the revenue growth.

 
 
Pursuant to the above, we can expect TSMC earnings to grow by leaps and bounds in coming quarters.
 
 
Medium to Longer Terms
 
 
While busy churning out 7nm products, TSMC is already working on its 5nm and 3nm manufacturing processes. It targets to roll out 5nm by first half of 2020 (next year !!!) and 3nm by 2022. With all these exciting developments in the pipeline, it is no exaggeration to say that TSMC is likely to maintain leadership positions for many years to come.
 
 
Please refer article below to feel the momentum and buliishness.
 
 
 
Market watchers believe that TSMC is set to enter its new growth phase driven by 5G commercialization. In fact, while describing 2019 as "a slow year" for TSMC earlier this year, company CEO CC Wei expressed his optimism about TSMC's performance in 2020 and 2021 when 5G and other emerging technologies mature. TSMC with its advanced process technology leadership is eyeing huge opportunities arising from transformative applications in the 5G era.

With regards to its 5nm production ramp-up, TSMC said previously it has become "a little bit more aggressive." The foundry is on track to move the node to volume production in the first half of 2020. TSMC regards its 5nm process as a long-lived node, same as its 7nm, 16nm and 28nm processes.

 

 

CONCLUDING REMARKS

 

All this while, I seldom invest in technology companies. It is notoriously difficult to predict how they will perform in the short term due to cyclical nature of the industry, and it is difficult to predict their perfomance in the medium to longer term due to the ever changing technological landscape. It is also difficult to pinpoint the winners. For example : I used to think that Nvidia is a promising company because it is a potential proxy to AI play. However, recently, AMD came up with a gaming chip that perform better than Nvidia. So Nvidia share price has collapsed by closed to 50%. You simply don't know where the bullets are going to come from.

 

However, TSMC doesn't have this problem. By virtue of its status as an independent chip foundry, it has exposure to EVERY sector and players.  It doesn't matter whether AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom or Apple is the winner, they all source their chips from TSMC (with Samsung the pretender lurking far behind).  

 

On top of that, there are signs that demand for 5G is picking up faster than many people have expected (no small part due to TSMC's advanced manufacturing tehcnology). The proliferation of this new technology will generate demand for high end chips for various types of applications, from smart phones to cloud computing to AI to high performance computing to autonomous driving, etc. As mentioned in my earlier article dated 20 August 2019, I believe we are on the verge of a supercycle for semiconductors that can last for many, many years. 

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/220402.jsp

 

With such favorable short, medium and long term prospects, I decided to bet my money on TSMC.

 

I am not greedy. Targeting a 50% return within 3 years.

  Ricky Kiat likes this.
 
rikki https://www.reuters.com/article/us-globalfoundries-tsmc-lawsuit/globalfoundries-seeks-to-ban-u-s-import-of-tsmc-clients-products-idUSKCN1VH0E9
29/08/2019 12:20 PM
Icon8888 http://m.focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201908280011.aspx
29/08/2019 12:26 PM
Icon8888 https://www.electronicdesign.com/embedded-revolution/tsmc-calls-patent-claims-made-globalfoundries-baseless
29/08/2019 12:28 PM
ongkkh Icon, may i know you use platform to buy US stock?
29/08/2019 9:34 PM
qqq3 every thing written is in line with what I know......
29/08/2019 9:55 PM
probability I am not investing abroad, but thanks to Icon for such effort in presenting his discoveries here. Thanks..
29/08/2019 9:57 PM
Icon8888 Ongkkh Just ask your broker. He will advise you

Not difficult

Similar to buying by using trading accounts
29/08/2019 9:59 PM
qqq3 Americans don't know how to do manufacturing anymore. They only do bulls****, marketing and financial engineering..........
29/08/2019 10:05 PM
PunTatBerSiul Well it takes a con artist to identify another conman.
29/08/2019 10:08 PM
qqq3 it takes some knowledge
29/08/2019 10:57 PM
ongkkh Hello Icon, just want to know you are using local or oversea trading account? By the way, congrat your Armada!
30/08/2019 2:50 PM
77huat77 TSMC is like monopoly this business ady Samsung cannot fight with him https://youtu.be/wT-cwb_JkTA
30/08/2019 4:40 PM
Icon8888 ongkkh local broker
31/08/2019 6:16 AM
ongkkh Thanks I will bet on it!!
31/08/2019 7:55 AM
Icon8888 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM?p=TSM&.tsrc=fin-srch
01/10/2019 9:39 PM
Robinson lol. now only say good? frontkn already 1.8
01/10/2019 10:04 PM
newbie2201 eh .....robinson at here say different ...at fronktn blog say water fish ...funny guy
17/10/2019 11:43 AM
pampers TSMC third-quarter profit rises 13.5%, beats market forecasts
17/10/2019 2:15 PM
Icon8888 TSMC to see profits surge in 2020-21

Monica Chen, Hsinchu; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES Monday 21 October 2019 0 Toggle Dropdown
TSMC is expected to enjoy significant profit increases in 2020 and 2021, after posting its first annual decrease in eight years this year, according to industry observers.

The commercialization of 5G networks is set to trigger a new wave of prosperity in the global semiconductor industry, and TSMC as the world's top pure-play foundry is set to enter a new chapter of company development. With its advanced-node process offerings, TSMC is expected to see chip orders boost substantially its total wafer revenues next year, the observers indicated.

TSMC has started seeing orders demanding advanced EUV-based process technology emerge since the second half of 2019, the observers said. A rebound in revenues during the latter half of this year will be able to offset weakness during the former half of the year, when the pure-play foundry is set to post another year of record-high revenues, the observers noted.

Nevertheless, TSMC's poor profit results in the first half of 2019 will undermine its profitability for all of the year. The foundry house is likely to report a decline in net profits this year, the observers said.

TSMC managed to post net profit growth for the seventh consecutive year in 2018, when the foundry generated a record-high NT$351.13 billion (US$11.36 billion) in net profit or NT$13.23 a share.

TSMC will see its net profit return to a growth track in 2020, said the observers, adding that the growth momentum will carry on in 2021 when chip demand for a diverse range of 5G device applications is set to boom. It is also highly likely that TSMC will be able to generate record-high net profits in 2020 and 2021, the observers indicated.

TSMC at its investors meeting last week suggested strong years ahead for the pure-play foundry, thanks to the arrival of 5G. The company has also stepped up its technology advancements, with plans to move a newer 5nm EUV node to commercial production in the first half of 2020.

Apple, Qualcomm, Huawei's HiSilicon and MediaTek are reportedly among TSMC's major customers adopting the foundry's EUV processes.

5G commercialization triggers new wave of prosperity in chipmaking industry
5G commercialization triggers new wave of prosperity in chipmaking industry
Photo: Digitimes file photo
22/10/2019 7:25 AM
qqq3 IMO the best share in the world.........otherwise, would not have bought a foreign share................
22/10/2019 8:19 AM
qqq3 investing is buying a share with enough transparencies, size, track record, assurance, reliable logical deductions to participate in its growth for several years ..............this one fits all the above....


without all the above, it is speculations/ trading..........



and this a great contrarian idea as earnings making a sharp U turn............
22/10/2019 8:28 AM
limcs tsmc already usd52
12/11/2019 2:59 PM
benji961996 Great Analysis Icon8888
26/04/2020 7:04 PM
VenFx Kgb & frontkn may benefitted from tsmc also ?
26/04/2020 7:07 PM

(Icon) 5G Arrives Earlier Than Expected, Start Paying Attention To Technology Stocks

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 20 Aug 2019, 11:20 AM


1. 5G At Our Doorstep

 

The semiconductor industry is famous for its boom bust cycles. The latest down cycle started around January 2018, about one and a half year ago, But recently, there are indications that the worst is behind us and the industry is entering a new boom cycle. 

 

The main growth driver is 5G. As early as few months ago, 5G was still a vague concept. But if you have been following developments in the semiconductor industry, you will notice that 5G is fast becoming a reality. Hardware producers such as Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia are busy getting base stations ready for mobile operators while smart phone makers such as Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Samsung are placing orders for new chips for their upcoming 5G phones.

 

 

2. A Supercycle, Bigger Than Anything We Have Ever Seen Before   

 

Who are the beneficiaries ? To answer this question, we need to look at what 5G can do. 

 

First of all, 5G is fast. This means that 5G base stations and smart phones will have to make use of the most advanced chips in town. This will benefit makers of modem and processors such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Xilinx, etc. 

 

Secondly, 5G need huge memory. Due to its high speed, 5G users can do many things that 4G cannot do. For example, Augmented Reality, highly sophisticated Games, etc. As such, 5G phones will have substantially higher memory storage than those of 4G. For example, Samsung's recent 5G phone will have 12GB memory. This will benefit producers of Solid State Memory. Micron is one good example.

 

With its huge bandwidth and capacity, 5G will also enable Internet of Things. Millions and billions of appliances and gadgets used in our daily life such as air cond, lighting, security devices, medical devices, pumps, compressors, engines, machines, etc will in the future be linked to data centres via internet, creating a smart society whereby real time information are continuosly transmitted, monitored and processed so as to optimise performance. This will benefit makers of sensors and passive components.

 

This will in turn create the need for servers to process all the information. This will benefit server makers and Hard Disc Drives manufacturers.    

 

On top of that, the advent of articifical intelligence and autonomous driving (enabled by 5G) will also create huge demand for semiconductors. 

 

In view of the foregoing, I believe that we are entering a super boom cycle for semiconductors that can last for many, many years. In the coming next one or two quarters, technology companies such as Inari, MPI and Unisem might be releasing weak results due to lag effect. But don't write them off. Keep an open mind and look for opportunities. We could be entering a golden era for technology stocks. 

  9 people like this.
 
qqq3 Trump's technology war means TSMC is the best share in the world......................
20/08/2019 6:04 PM
Up_down TSMC is giant blue chip so we can't punt growth stock like what we do in KLSE.

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 20, 2019 5:49 PM | Report Abuse

TSMC July sale 700 bil TWD per month

But because of 5G, sales in October November and December will be 1 bil TWD per month

The growth is already here
20/08/2019 6:08 PM
Icon8888 It is a blue chip that is about to grow like a 16 years old
20/08/2019 8:11 PM
supersaiyan3 Good one. There hasn't been a great article like this one for a long time.
20/08/2019 8:22 PM
Icon8888 Memory firms expect explosive growth from 5G starting 2020
Siu Han, Taipei; Willis Ke, DIGITIMES Tuesday 13 August 2019 0 Toggle Dropdown
Despite lackluster memory demand likely to persist till the end of 2019, the memory industry is expected to see a brighter prospect starting 2020 when 5G services kick off commercial runs driving the popularity of 5G terminal devices that will in turn generate strong growth for memory products, according to industry sources.

The sources said that the 5G commercialization will stimulate upgrades of datacenter servers, and the resultant strong demand for high-capacity server memory will come first to bail the memory industry out when operators move to accelerate establishment and expansion of datacenters.

The sources said the Tokyo Olympics 2020 and the commercialization of 5G services will trigger a positive cycle of investment expansion, stimulating buying sentiment at the consumer end and prompting telecom operators and web service firms to increase their investments in datacenters by 3-4 folds to support the use of 5G mobile devices.

Sumit Sadana, executive vice president and chief business officer at US-based Micron Technology, said that his company will zero in on business opportunities from the ever-growing 5G, AI, IoT and autonomous driving applications, which will create new business models and spur upgrades in memory and storage solutions.

For mobile devices to fast transmit data on 5G bandwidths, high-performance DRAM and NAND flash products will be badly needed along with a new wave of replacement demand for 5G smartphones. In this regard, Micron estimates smartphone storage capacity will sharply expand from 512GB in 2019 to 1TB by 2021 when data transmission speed hits 20Gbps.

Taiwan memory firms revving up deployments

To cash in on immense 5G-driven business opportunities, Taiwan's memory supply chain is also aggressively proceeding with relevant deployments.

Nanya Technology president Pei-Ing Lee said that 5G commercialization will bring two major impacts on the memory market. First is that mobile devices will require bigger memory capacity support. Some flagship smartphones launched so far in 2019 come with 12GB memory, and some midrange models with 6-8GB. Second is that demand for network devices including routers, servers and cloud computing solutions will grow sharply. Accordingly, Nanya started small-volume server memory shipments in the first half of 2019 and will ramp up shipments in the fourth quarter, expecting the shipment ratio for such memory to reach 10% in 2020.

Macronix is eyeing the first wave of 5G opportunities from femtocells, which will grow exponentially in number, and it is cooperating with vendors of network equipment, APs, routers, and Internet of Vehicles (IoV) equipment to jointly tap the opportunities. Macronix is optimistic about strong demand for high-capacity NOR memory products, bolstered by a spate of new applications created by V2X (vehicles to everything).

Meanwhile, Winbond has recently released its 2Gb NAND+2Gb LPDDR4x MCP (multi-chips package) modules to support the operation of high-speed 5G terminal devices,

Innodisk chairman Randy Chien said his company expects to have as many as 300 AIoT clients by the end of 2019, up from less than 100 in 2018, ready to embrace drastic business expansion after 5G commercialization kicks off in 2020.

Adata Technology chairman Simon Chen noted 5G, AIoT and telematics will be the three major growth drivers for the global memory market starting 2020, with demand to explode in 2021-2022 in the largest-ever bull market for memory.
20/08/2019 8:38 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Here is my take on 5G after some further reading.

5G isn’t one technology, but a complex collection of technologies, many of which have not been sorted out by the standards bodies.

In general, however, it’s helpful to oversimplify the explanation about how 5G works. So here goes.

The technologies behind 5G enable the use of very high frequencies. The higher the frequency, the shorter the wavelength. Shorter wavelengths enable faster speeds and lower latency.

But there’s the catch: With shorter wavelengths, the distance between the device and the “tower” has to be much shorter, and the signal has a harder time penetrating through materials such as walls and trees. To get around those obstacles, companies need to deploy vastly more towers than existing technologies do. And companies such as Verizon are using beamforming to direct signals around objects and toward devices.

In order to have reasonable coverage, providers have got to build 5G antennas and towers all over the place, and very close to users. It’s time-consuming and expensive to place these devices everywhere, so the rollout will be slow and uneven.

Because 5G connections suck more power, the chips that power 5G will be designed to favor 4G and kick into 5G mode only when the application demands high bandwidth.

In essence, 5g will take a lot longer ( 10 years+) to really get things together before it becomes something really useful.

We will probably need to wait a lot longer before you can move everything into the cloud and start buying rm50 smartphones ( which only need screen and sound), get smart car access everywhere and all those IoT dreams like Ironman movies.

In essence the jump from 2g to 3g to 4g is quite similar (upgrading of existing cell tower equipment) I know this because I just installed a signal booster in mukah water treatment plant that gave me strong celcom connection locally. It's basically the same device

But the jump from 4g to 5g is on an entirely different scale altogether. It's almost an entirely new technology all together. I'm not sure who will actually be the beneficiary of the new technology or which company will actually be profitable from it long term.
20/08/2019 10:16 PM
miketyu mind to enlighten which semicon is related to 5G besides inari and penta?
20/08/2019 10:25 PM
michaelwong A new version in high speed internet technology around the globe that can benefitted many semiconductor stakeholders . Dufu share price has been performing impressively of late not to mention those under Forbes list unisem, vitrox and etc .
20/08/2019 11:45 PM
qqq3 Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Aug 20, 2019 10:16 PM | Report Abuse


But the jump from 4g to 5g is on an entirely different scale altogether. It's almost an entirely new technology all together. I'm not sure who will actually be the beneficiary of the new technology or which company will actually be profitable from it long term.
======

Philips has a good balanced take on 5G.

Magic will happen in China.....for Malaysia, it be be a long time.
20/08/2019 11:56 PM
qqq3 memories and chips....Trump's technology war with China means every thing is up for grabs.....but TSMC seems poised to benefit the most..........
20/08/2019 11:59 PM
GreenTrade Google: Theta Token

Current price $0.12

I believe that this Digital Asset will rise up to $12 in near future.

Due to 5G / Video Streaming / VR and many more.

The world needs so much more bandwith but is unable to cope with it.

Theta is the solution.

https://web.facebook.com/Greentrades/

Good Luck

For more info, do hit me up on my fb page or number :)
21/08/2019 1:54 AM
UnicornP HDD manufacturer -> Notion Vtec -> Expect mass production in 2020.
21/08/2019 8:59 AM
qqq3 TSMC....did u buy from Taiwan stock exchange or from NYSE depository receipt?
21/08/2019 11:20 AM
qqq3 whether 5G or memory chips, Bursa shares don't work the way u expect..................................
21/08/2019 11:23 AM
qqq3 my own experience...foreign shares not suitable for me.........too much leakage, transaction costs...........
21/08/2019 1:36 PM
Icon8888 I bought using my local broker account

Just choose NYSE instead of Bursa

I click buy and sell just like I buy Vitrox
21/08/2019 1:56 PM
Icon8888 TSMC to see revenues surge in 2020
Monica Chen, Hsinchu; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES Wednesday 21 August 2019 0 Toggle Dropdown
Growing chip demand for 5G- and AIoT-related applications will boost TSMC's revenues for 2020, which are expected to climb over 10% on year, according to industry sources.

TSMC is also set to generate record-high profits next year, driven by growing sales from 7nm and more advanced process technologies, the sources indicated.

TSMC should be able to see its revenue growth continue to outperform the industry average this year, said the sources, adding that the pure-play foundry is expected to post a slight revenue increase in 2019.

Nevertheless, TSMC is unlikely to post another year of record-high profits this year, due to lower-than-expected profits during the first half of the year, the sources continued.

TSMC has started volume production of chips built using N7+, the foundry's first process node with EUV lithography, since the second quarter of 2019. Huawei, Apple, AMD and Qualcomm are reportedly among TSMC's EUV customers.

TSMC's N7+ node is believed to be more competitive than rivals' due to higher and more stable yield rates, the sources believe.

In addition, TSMC has introduced its 6nm process incorporating EUV with risk production scheduled for the first quarter of 2020. Target applications include high-to-mid end mobile, consumer applications, AI, networking, 5G infrastructure, GPU, and high-performance computing.

As for TSMC's 5nm process technology, regarded by the foundry as "a large and long-lasting node," volume production is slated to kick off during the first half of 2020. Apple is reportedly among the first customers adopting the foundry's 5nm EUV process.

Demand for TSMC's EUV processes is set to become robust starting 2020, when 5G commercialization kicks off, according to market watchers. The availability of 5G networks will be driving chip demand for various terminal devices ranging from network equipment, smartphones, IoT, HPC to automotive.

TSMC CFO Lora Ho said at the company's investors meeting in July that the foundry expects to post an around 18% sequential increase in third-quarter revenues, thanks mainly to growing demand coming from the smartphone and IoT sectors. Ho continued that she believes the fourth quarter will be an even stronger quarter for TSMC, as chip demand for smartphones continues to ramp up coupled with a pick-up in demand for HPC applications.
21/08/2019 2:03 PM
Icon8888 You probably do not understand how strong TSMC market position and prospect is, there is why you are not so passionate

I bet quite big. 10% of my portfolio
21/08/2019 2:05 PM
Icon8888 I describe TSMC as Low potential return but high probability of successs

I will be happy with 50% return in three years
21/08/2019 2:07 PM
qqq3 I already read TSMC 7nm chips more advanced than Intel.........and if US cannot sell to Huawei, who they turn to ? TSMC, of course........
21/08/2019 2:22 PM
mcmann Thanks Icon8888 will study TSMC
21/08/2019 2:26 PM
mcmann apart from TSMC what are local company will benefit from this 5G era ?
21/08/2019 2:26 PM
Icon8888 Huawei currently has its own chips

It doesn't need US to sell to it

But it purposely reserve 60% for US companies (consider that as protection fee ?)

If US doesn't want to sell them, they will go to TSMC to produce the remaining 60% using their own chip design
21/08/2019 2:31 PM
qqq3 y Icon8888 > Aug 21, 2019 2:31 PM | Report Abuse

Huawei currently has its own chips
==========

There is a wide range and variety of chips....Takes many years before Huawei is self sufficient............
21/08/2019 2:43 PM
Icon8888 They can live without US chips, but will have to sacrifice some performance

For example, if they can't get Qualcomm latest modem chips , they won't go bust. They can use back their own less efficient chip, but probably need to add some cooling mechanisms

So it still will work, but might be a bit more bulky

That is the way I understand it
21/08/2019 3:00 PM
qqq3 Taipeh stock exchange stock code 2330.........

I have to buy through HK........

NYSE depository receipt, what is the stock code?
21/08/2019 3:02 PM
qqq3 I am a trader.....for traders, Bursa is enough....other exchanges too much leakages, double commissions and forex....as a trader, London biscuit drop to 11 , now 14 , I got too much at 16, dare not average at 11.............


For investors who keeps a couple of years, transaction costs are not relevant.....................
21/08/2019 3:12 PM
qqq3 what about Frontken? Can do research on Frontken........?
21/08/2019 3:13 PM
UnicornP So far 5G hot stocks : OSAT(Inari), ATE(Penta, Vitrox), Semicon back-end(Frontkn), HDD(Dufu, Notion).
21/08/2019 4:08 PM
mcmann thanks unicorn
21/08/2019 8:35 PM
Andre Kua Even though 5G is the next big thing, I dont see there would be drastic action in the next 2 years at the very least.

Unless you are really a geek, you probably have no idea what 5G really is all about except that you know its great in speed. In reality, it is a bit more complex than that. 5G technology is so different than 4G that it poses technological challenges that 4G dont face. The biggest one would be coverage. It operates on a much higher frequency band and as with higher frequency band, the signal dont travel a great distance. Higher frequency also have harder time penetrating materials.

Hence I think for certain countries (I think Malaysia included), you will only get 5G in dense area like city center, universities or government buildings. 5G would benefit since the deployment area is not too big and have huge users to utilize the additional bandwidth gained with 5G. Whereas for the rest, we will most probably be stuck with 4G for 2-3 more years until they made a huge step forward to increase the range of the tower as well as reducing the cost of the equipment even further. As for now, I think only certain countries will be benefiting from 5G roll out.
22/08/2019 8:09 AM
UnicornP But all the semicon bosses very upbeat of the 5G business prospect wor. Who are we to oppose? If you scared you wait and see the next quarter earnings only decide lo. They say 2019 second half business will rebound strongly.
22/08/2019 10:48 AM
laychee So far no one talks about the companies that preparing to make money from this big pie.

Tun M visit to China is making 5G a viable upgrade.

But Malaysians will be using it to download movies instead of performing surgical operation during vacation far away from hospital.
22/08/2019 11:09 AM
Andre Kua South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China (& HK) probably the first few to adopt it since tech is home grown and easy approvals from government.

As for others, I would say wait and see. Telecommunication industry is heavy reliant on frequency band bidding and allocation.
22/08/2019 11:20 AM
UnicornP 5G means the need to start making new mobile phones(Apple, Samsung). Making new mobile phones means the need to make new chips(TSMC,Micron) and test it(Inari,MPI). Making new chips means the need to make machines(Vitrox, Penta). Make machines means the need to maintain the machine(Frontken). New internet speed means the need to make new computer and thus hard-disk(Dufu) and gaming chips too(Nvidia).
22/08/2019 11:36 AM
UnicornP Then Andre you lucky liao. Inari and Penta's biggest market is Singapore. Vitrox's is China. Frontkn's is Taiwan.
22/08/2019 11:57 AM
UnicornP So far 5G hot stocks : OSAT(Inari), ATE(Penta, Vitrox), Semicon back-end(Frontkn, UWC), HDD(Dufu, Notion). Bonus: Salute
22/08/2019 3:58 PM
RainT if you invest in 5G related counters now,

then be prepare to hold at least until year 2020
22/08/2019 6:15 PM
RainT to make big money is to invest when nobody wants it

not when the price at the peak high

this goes to MPI and INARI
22/08/2019 6:16 PM
qqq3 RainT > Aug 22, 2019 6:16 PM | Report Abuse

to make big money is to invest when nobody wants it
==========

u talking about London biscuit? or armada?
22/08/2019 11:43 PM
UnicornP I reframe his word: to make big money is to invest when everybody panic about some kacang external issues like trade war & inverted yield curve
22/08/2019 11:59 PM
miketyu is MI equipment part of the ecosystem?
23/08/2019 8:46 AM
VenFx Yup. Mi is vitrox best close competitor.
23/08/2019 8:49 AM
miketyu Only that Vitrox has larger scale than MI right?
23/08/2019 9:20 AM
qqq3 https://www.investors.com/news/technology/5g-stocks-5g-wireless-stocks/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo
23/08/2019 10:16 AM
qqq3 every year there will be a handful of stocks that will do well and a lot don't. If you spread your money into 50 stocks, at best a mediocre result, and unlucky can lose 10% or more. Because Bursa alone is so difficult , people like Philips and Icon have to go global to find out- performance.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/220949.jsp
23/08/2019 10:25 AM
Icon8888 I concentrate on TSMC

Average cost USD42
23/08/2019 2:14 PM
sc Khaw OCK as well
05/09/2019 11:58 AM
qqq3 Posted by sc Khaw > Sep 5, 2019 11:58 AM | Report Abuse

OCK as well
=========

actually u are right...as for 5 G......the only ones in Malaysia to benefit are the tower guys.......The telcos are just spending money ......
05/09/2019 12:14 PM
qqq3 .The telcos are just spending money ......and writing off old expenditures....tough for these guys so don't expect much..........
05/09/2019 12:15 PM

(Icon) Eco World International Warrants (Ewint-WA) - Bet Big, When The Odds Are Overwhelmingly In Your Favour

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 10 Jul 2019, 12:54 PM


1. Introduction

 

I first wrote about Eco World International (Ewint) in July 2018.

 

 

That time, share price was trading at 93 sen. It has since drifted downwards to 65 sen. A decline of 30%.

 

(Ewint share price)

 

(Ewint-WA price)

 

Ewint-WA on the other hand, went up from 18 sen to 30 sen plus and subsequently drifted downwards to the existing 11 sen.

 

 

2. Fundamentals Intact

 

Share price has dropped by 30% since my call, do I need to apologise ?

 

Nope. Because the Ewint group's fundamentals remain intact. 

 

Intact is actually an understatement. Since I published my article in July 2018, the group's fundamentals had improved substantially. Most notable is its success in securing the Built to Rent (BtR) deal with Investco, a US Pension Fund, which involves the building of 1,000 BtR homes for Investco for consideration of RM2.12 bil. Based on 70% equity interest, that added approximately RM1.5 bil to its unbilled sales. 

 

As at todate, the group's unbilled sale stands at RM6.6 bil, which will provide earnings visibility over the next two to three years.

 

 

3. Raining Durians Soon (This round it should be real)

 

The reason Ewint share price has dropped so much is because of its inability to deliver consistent earning since my July 2018 article.

 

 

 

As shown above, the group reported strong net profit of RM70 mil in October 2018 quarter. However, it subsequently dropped back to RM24 mil in January 2019 quarter. In April 2019 quarter, it further deteriorated to RM11.6 mil loss.

 

Actually there is nothing disconcerting about its earning volatility. According to UK accounting standard, the group can only recognize profit after completion (instead of progress billing). It just happened that during the past two quarters, they have not been able to deliver many completed units to purchasers.

 

However, things are about to change for the better, very soon.

 

(Source : April 2019 quarterly report)

 

According to the company's comments above, we can expect stronger earnings as soon as the coming quarter.

 

 

4. Ewint-WA, As Resilient As A Cockcroach

 

In the aftermath of a Nuclear War, which specie is likely to survive ? Human being ? Tiger ? Rats ? 

 

No, it is the cockroaches. Cockcroaches can eat almost anything, they can survive in filty environment, they don't need much sunlight, etc. They are one of the most resilient living being in the world. 

 

Based on my experience, if you invest in the warrants of a profitable and healthy PLC, with remaining lifespan of at least two to three years, trading at closed to 10 sen, you will have almost zero chance of losing money. 

 

The time value of money alone is worth at least 10 sen. That is the conclusion investors will draw when they look at an instrument of such nature.

 

Unless you are so bad luck and encounter a market meltdown triggered by lets' say, a financial crisis, such Warrants are almost as indestructible as cockcroaches.

 

Ewint-WA is now trading at 11 sen, it is expiring in April 2022 (3 more years to go) and have exercise price of RM1.45.

 

Fair enough, the conversion premium is a little bit high (140%). However, Ewint is expected to perform well in coming quarters. If that materilises, it is not difficult for Ewint-WA to go back to lets' say, 15 sen or 20 sen (a gain of how many percent ?).

 

Charlie Munger once said :

 

 

Maybe it is time to take a closer look at Ewint-WA.

 

 

Appendix - Eco World International (Ewint) Earning Projections

 

(Source : Kenanga IB analyst report dated 28 June 2019)

(Based on 2.4 bil shares, Ewint's FY2019 and FY2020 net profit of RM180 mil and RM476 mil translates into EPS of 7.5 sen and 19.8 sen respectively)

 

(Source : Maybank IB analyst report dated 28 June 2019)

Labels: EWINT, EWINT-WA
  5 people like this.
 
value88 I believe EWInt's earnings will improve in quarters to come due to the handover of completed units. I also have been eyeing this stock but hesitate to buy due to several concerns i have in mind. I list them down at below, maybe someone can help to advise. My concerns are :

I) UK may face a no-deal Brexit soon, especially after PM position is taking over by potential candidate, Boris Johnson. If that happens, the prospect of property market in UK and prospect of EWInt will be negatively impacted.
Although the coming quarters' earning result is certainly to improve, but market people may think the prospect in extended future would not be good if no-deal Brexit happens, and therefore dampens EWInt's stock price.

ii) EWInt is categorised in "property segment" in Bursa. There are many property companies in Bursa selling at low PE presently due to market has negative sentiment on this segment. Market may also give low PE to EWInt even when it shows higher earnings in coming quarters.

Anyone has any comments on my concerns above, pls share. Thanks.
10/07/2019 9:41 PM
supersaiyan3 I remembered you recommend UNIMECH-WA??

Did it go to ZERO??
10/07/2019 10:50 PM
supersaiyan3 Better buy mother share.
10/07/2019 10:50 PM
12/07/2019 3:44 PM
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17/07/2019 3:22 AM
Choivo Capital As a short to mid term punt, this is interesting.
06/09/2019 11:58 AM
Choivo Capital It went up quite abit some time after he bought, but ended at zero, that is correct.

===
supersaiyan3 I remembered you recommend UNIMECH-WA??

Did it go to ZERO??
10/07/2019 10:50 PM
06/09/2019 11:58 AM
Icon8888 15 sen now

those that have listened to my call and bought at 11 sen would have made 36% by now

just like that (click my fingers)
25/11/2019 9:37 AM
Sslee Hahahaha,
Choivo's Insas warrant going to end up as ZERO.
25/11/2019 9:48 AM
Ricky Kiat dumb dumb hold....(^-^)
25/11/2019 9:57 AM
Icon8888 19 sen
09/12/2019 10:24 AM
Choivo Capital Sold for a profit early this year bro.

===
Sslee Hahahaha,
Choivo's Insas warrant going to end up as ZERO.
09/12/2019 4:05 PM

(Icon) Bumi Armada - A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sun, 30 Jun 2019, 8:44 PM


1. Introduction

 

According to Kenanga Investment Bank, Yinson is expected to experience spike in earning in calender year 2020 (FYE Jan 2021). Its historical and prospective PER is 27 times and 17 times respectively.  

 

(Source : Kenanga IB analyst report for Yinson dated 28 June 2019)

 

On the other hand, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank, Armada is trading at historical and prospective PER of approximately 5 times. (Armada share price 22.5 Sen as at the date of this article).

 

(Source : Hong Leong IB analayst report dated 3 June 2019) 

 

It is true that Yinson has stronger balance sheet (net gearing of 1.1 times) compared to Armada (net gearing of 2.7 times). But as long as Armada can service its debt obligations (recent indications are that they can), maybe we should not let balance sheet weakness completely shut us down.

 

Let's take a closer look.

 

 

2. Historical Profitability

 

The followings are Armada's historical P&L from Q1 of FY2017 until Q1 of FY2019 :

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) annual revenue of approximately RM2.4 bil. Existing order book is approximately RM20 bil (firmed order book). Simple calculation shows that it should last around 8 years, even without additional contracts secured.

 

(b) Annual interest expense of approximately RM500 mil. As borrowings outstanding is approximately RM10 bil, effective interest rate is approximately 5%.

 

(c) In FY2017, the group has property, plants and equipment (PPE) of RM9.5 bil (year average) and depreciation charges of RM576 mil. This translates into PPE lifepan of 16 years. 

 

The group made huge provision for impairment of RM2.4 bil in FY2018. Divided by 16 years, depreciation charges will be lowered by RM150 mil per annum (or RM40 mil per quarter). A quick check shows that this is indeed the case as Q1 of FY2019's depreciation charges has dropped to RM105 mil (from approximately RM150 mil in Q1 of FY2017).

 

In an earlier annual report, management has indicated that impairment is actualy not a bad thing. Apart from lowering depreciation charges (augurs well for future profitability), it also puts the group in better position to bid for contracts at lower price, thereby enhancing its competitivenss (OMS segment). 

 

(d) The group reported net profit (without exceptional items) of RM310 mil and RM316 mil for FY2017 and FY2018 respectively.

 

FY2017 revenue was driven by relatively strong OMS (Offshore Marine Service) contributions. The OMS division's order book is closed to being depleted. Going forward, we should be happy if it can just break even.

 

Following completion of 4 vessels in FY2018, contribution by FPSO and FGS (Floating Gas Storage, referring to the vessel chartered to Malta for Liquified Natural Gas storage for power generation purpose) has picked up, as evidenced by higher FPSO and FGS revenue of RM801 mil in FY2018 compared to RM529 mil in FY2017. In Q1 FY2019, this division's revenue further increase to RM254 mil (if annualised will be RM1 bil revenue). The group's FPSO related revenue is likely to further increase once Kraken's operational issues are fully resolved and achieves final acceptance status (no idea by how much).

 

As shown in table above, the group's earning capacity is approximately RM300 mil per annum (without exceptional items).

 

(e) Not to be overlooked is the group's 3 Joint Ventures in India and Indonesia. These joint ventures made consistent profit contribution of approxmiately RM160 mil per annum to the group in FY2017 and FY2018.

 

The joint ventures' contribution is not limited to equity accounting. A study of the group's cash flow statement shows that they occasionally flew cash up to the goup through a combination of dividend payment and capital repayment. 

 

 

3. Balance Sheets

 

The followings are the group's balance sheet details over past two years :-

 

 

Key observations :-

 

(a) Armada Kraken was deliverd to client, Enquest, by mid 2017. However, it was not able to achieve final acceptance status within the designated timeframe (meaning the vessel has not been able to perform according to full specifications). This caused it to breach the financing covenants, resulted in its long term loan being reclassified into short term loan. 

 

There are some good news though. In March and April 2019, Armada Kraken has managed to improve its performance materially. It is not known when the vessel will achieve final acceptance status, but at least it is heading in positive direction.

 

 

Please note that since breaching the loan covenants in Q4 of FY2017, the company has been paring down Armada Kraken's loans by RM486 mil (from RM2,145 mil to RM1,656 mil). Please refer to table above.

 

(b) On 24 April 2019, the company announced that it has successfully negotiated with lenders to refinance RM2.72 bil short term facilities into a single long term facility with RM1.07 bil and RM1.65 bil maturing in two and five years respectively. This removed a major risk of default.    

 

(c) During the 2 years from Q1 FY2017 until Q2 FY2019, the group pared down net loans by RM1.56 bil (from RM10.39 bil to RM8.83 bil). This is equivalent to RM750 mil repayment per annum. 

 

(d) Following huge impairment of RM2.4 bil in FY2018, property, plant and equipment declined from RM10.3 bil in Q1 FY2017 to RM6.5 bil in Q1 FY2019. Due to huge losses, shareholders funds also declined from RM5.6 bil to RM3.3 bil (a decline of RM2.3 bil). As a result, despite reduction in loans by RM1.56 bil (as mentioned above), net gearing increased from 1.8 times to 2.7 times.

 

 

4. Cash Flow

 

The followings are cashflow details :-

 

 

Key observations :-

 

(a) The group generated net profit of approximately RM300 mil per annum. However, depreciation charges was approximately RM500 mil per annum. Added that back, net operating cashflow (already factoring in interest payment of approximately RM500 mil per annum) would be approximately RM800 mil per annum (ignoring changes in working capital as it tends to even out over years).

 

(b) In FY2017, the group incurred capex of RM1.8 bil. In FY2018, the amount was approximately RM758 mil. Going forward, capex is expected to be a lot lower as all the vessels had been completed and delivered (unless further capex is required to rectify Armada Kraken problems, which I think is unlikely to be big as material improvement has been achieved recently).  

 

(c) In FY2018, the group's 3 joint ventures (2 in India, 1 in Indonesia) flew up a total RM249 mil cash to the group by way of dividend and capital repayment. Going forward, it is difficult to tell whether the same quantum can be maintained. However, for two consecutive years, these joint venture stakes have been contributing net profit of RM160 mil per annum to the group. I think going forward, dividend payment of RM100 mil per annum is a realistic assumption.

 

(d) In FY2017 and FY2018, the group disposed of assets amounted to RM140 mil and RM86 mil respectively. The group will continue to dispose of assets in the future to raise cash.

 

(e) Over the two financial years (2017 and 2018), the group made net repayment of RM1.809 bil. This worked out to be RM900 mil per annum.

 

 

 

5. Concluding Remarks

 

At current market cap of RM1.26 bil, Armada is trading at prospective PER of approximately 5 times. The group has weak balance sheets, but long term charters provide it with strong earning and cash flow visibility.

 

Going forward, I think the most important factor to watch is Armada Kraken. If they managed to resolve all the problems faced by this vessel (indications are that they are heading in right drection), the stock will experience a major re-rating.

 

Labels: ARMADA
  5 people like this.
 
stockraider IF U R SO PANLAI, TELL US WHAT ARE THE FLAWS MAKE LEH IN THE ANALYSIS ?? INSTEAD OF SIMPLY PERSONALLY ATTACK RAIDER LOH...!!

TALK POSITIVE PLEASE....DO NOT TALK COCK LOH...!!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 7, 2019 11:42 AM | Report Abuse

Stockraider analysis of yinson had so many holes a jumbo jet can fly right through. While raider dream dreaming about his sapura rm3 in 3 years. And his initial analysis of hengyuan worth rm35.

And his initial analysis of dgsb is share price went up from 4.5 cents and jump up to 9 cents in one month.

So how to explain to him his analysis is dead wrong leh? I hope he continue to think this way with his office boy mentality.

His accounting method is so kampung that I feel like want to help him explain part by part like a little boy how to look at balance sheets.

But I have better things to do on a Sunday than waste time with a troll. Let him look at the numbers properly himself.

When stockraider is wrong he will never admit. So wasting time trying correct his analysis. Let him enjoy his own world.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 7, 2019 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

Ask yourself yinson is how much overvalue compare to armada, but its balance sheet are still craps leh ??

When there of reckoning come for Yinson, u cry also no tears loh..!!

YINSON IS ACTUALLY HYFLUX IN THE MAKING LOH...!!
07/07/2019 11:49 AM
DickyMe The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.
07/07/2019 12:16 PM
stockraider Don get principle wrong loh....!!
It is not gamble mah.....!!
It is intelligent investment with big margin of safety with great prospect of big profit from upside rerating Loh...!!

Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.
07/07/2019 11:32 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.


>>>>



Thanks for highlighting.
08/07/2019 8:09 AM
qqq3 Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.
=========

contrarian plays are for the pros.
08/07/2019 8:55 AM
DickyMe One who sells dignity, ethics and moral values in exchange of money are also called "pros".
08/07/2019 9:57 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ A good company deserves a higher valuation. It is possible that you paid a slightly higher price than you wanted to pay for the stock, which lowers your overall rate of return, but time is on your side and your long holding time minimizes the impact of the higher purchase price to your overall return. Also, you will always find the opportunity to add to your position at lower valuations, though not necessarily at lower prices.


Deep value investing investors need to be cautious and aware of this approach's inherent problems. Those companies dropping and appearing in the deep-bargain screener probably deserved to be traded by low valuations. Their stock prices were likely low for the right reasons, and buying these would likely have resulted in steep losses.
08/07/2019 10:55 AM
Icon8888 both my detractors and supporters, we come back again in one year and see whether Armada is more than 22 sen

time will tell who is Warren Buffett who is Moron Buffalo

argue so much no use
08/07/2019 10:59 AM
lurhays i thinks it's not about good or bad company and it's not about buying actually... just a lower price stock is good for trader gain fast profit in more quantities shares in hand to gain in single movement uptrend per day...
08/07/2019 11:07 AM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
08/07/2019 11:17 AM
qqq3 lurhays > Jul 8, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

i thinks it's not about good or bad company and it's not about buying actually... just a lower price stock is good for trader gain fast profit in more quantities shares in hand to gain in single movement uptrend per day...
======

I can support that.
08/07/2019 11:21 AM
Icon8888 without sochais like 3iii and Philips that cannot differentiate good buys from good companies, when will we have chance to make money ?

we should welcome their existence
08/07/2019 11:29 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>


Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 8, 2019 11:29 AM | Report Abuse

without sochais like 3iii and Philips that cannot differentiate good buys from good companies, when will we have chance to make money ?

we should welcome their existence


>>>>



Yes, discuss rationally.

Don't be distressed by our postings.
08/07/2019 12:17 PM
stockraider Post removed. Why?
08/07/2019 12:26 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

I thought u r the real SOHAI....!!


>>>>



Alright, what raider is pointing out is he is the smart ass.

Investing requires the qualities of temperament way more than it requires qualities of intellect.
08/07/2019 1:11 PM
MahjongAuntie Its not being evaluated in such a way. Different price offer of different company cannot determine which one is better off than one another
08/07/2019 2:27 PM
stockraider Posted by Mabel > Jul 8, 2019 12:03 AM | Report Abuse

So it's pretty clear that Armada is oversold and Yinson has done a great job selling perception.

Let's give this train until end of this year and look for the thing that was advice earlier...

For this coming Quarter Report, we should be looking at 4 things:

1) Profit growth
2) Debt reduction with cashflow generated
3) Restructuring of ST debt to LT debt
4) Impairment reversal as highlight by stockraider.

At this rate with 0.3x P/B, I would say very limited downside risks for Princess Armada.

With the latest data we received from stockraider, I'm beginning to believe that it's not going to be gradual climb. It will rocket like KNM..


Hence either you HOLD or accumulate when the trading starts tomorrow.
09/07/2019 11:00 PM
stockraider FOR ARMADA THE FOLLOWING ARE THE GOOD NEWS;

1) Debt has been restructured from ST to LT
2) Kraken is improving
3) Significant OPEX cost reduction
4) Winning the huge ONGC contract
5) Profit is expected to grow next the next few quaters

AT THE MOMENT ARMADA OUTSTANDING ORDER BOOKS RM 21B LOH...!!
09/07/2019 11:02 PM
stockraider Correctloh...opportunity to collect cheap cheap loh...!!

Without epf dumping, u cannot collect cheap cheap mah...!!

Once dumping over, shoot up like rocket mah...!!

Posted by InvestorKING > Jul 9, 2019 7:01 PM | Report Abuse

Be careful EPF will have big dumping soon....
09/07/2019 11:05 PM
stockraider U don understand loh....!!

It depend on whether oil major commit on business expansion and capex loh....!! They decide on their business plan on long term basis about 5 yrs ahead and commit & implement way ahead of oil price movement mah.....!!

But armada order books in Rm 21 billion todate, that means revenue generation no problem for armada loh....!!

Good prospect & strong turnaround play for armada mah...!!

Posted by SuperPanda > Jul 9, 2019 8:17 PM | Report Abuse

pearlwhite has a point on the debt vs profit, you cant the deny some of the facts she brought up

thats why its very important to note the recovery for o&g company like armada is all depends on oil market

if oil market continue in slump anytime from now towards next year, then most o&g not only in msia but across the globe will be dead
09/07/2019 11:06 PM
stockraider ARMADA IS ANOTHER CLASSIC INVESTMENT BASED ON MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH..!!

IN ARMADA CASE THE INVESTMENT ANCHOR ARE ;

1. TUNAROUND PLAY
2. HUGE NTA DISCOUNT
3. STRONG EARNINGS RECOVERY LOH...!!

ARMADA IS MUCH BIGGER COMPANY THAN YINSON AND ITS LATEST QTR EARNINGS IS SAME AS YINSON AT RM 62M...BUT YET YINSON IS VALUE AT RM 7.0 BILLION WHEREAS IS ONLY AT RM 1.2 BILLION.

U CAN ACTUALLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF COMING RERATING OF ARMADA TOO
12/07/2019 10:06 AM
Icon8888 3iii has totally misunderstood the concept of investing

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs

he thought expensive means good
12/07/2019 10:09 AM
stockraider Yes 3iii & Philip chose the Panda style investment loh...!!
We he survive on one single source of food

We chose the Grizzly type of more flexible investment loh...!!
On the other hand we can survive on all kind of food source mah...!!


Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 12, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

3iii has totally misunderstood the concept of investing

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs

he thought expensive means good
12/07/2019 10:14 AM
Icon8888 LOL
12/07/2019 10:15 AM
stockraider At this price it is quite impossible to buy loh...it is like u always chasing your tail or shadow loh...!!

Just pay mkt price & buy armada it has great prospect loh...!!

Posted by InvestorKING > Jul 12, 2019 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

Get ready to buy at 0.22-0.225


Posted by stockraider > Jul 12, 2019 10:27 AM | Report Abuse X

I already says pessimistic tp value Rm 0.50 and more optimistic value tp rm 1.70 mah...!!

If u check back my previous posting here, i already explain the basis why loh....!!

Posted by itch > Jul 12, 2019 10:24 AM | Report Abuse

Agree stockraider, but what is your TP for Armada?
12/07/2019 11:16 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 12, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs
================


not like Roshmah...........if investing is participating in the growth of excellent companies, then it makes sense that the portfolio is made up of excellent companies.................


every thing else is speculations/ trading.

Rosmah do not buy stuffs for investments, Rosmah is just a bitch

put it also this way, assuming there is some truth about efficient market hypothesis, then, for the masses, its makes sense that his portfolio is make up entirely of high quality companies so as to participate in the growth of the country / the companies themselves............


speculations and trading.....leave it to the pros.
12/07/2019 11:27 AM
stockraider Rubbish loh...if u buy stock like Armada and insas with big margin of safety for long term is investment loh...!!

If u buy overvalue stock like Nestle & QL is speculation loh...!!

Notice different ??

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 12, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 12, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

he is like Rosmah, only buy expensive, branded stuffs
================


not like Roshmah...........if investing is participating in the growth of excellent companies, then it makes sense that the portfolio is made up of excellent companies.................


every thing else is speculations/ trading.

Rosmah do not buy stuffs for investments, Rosmah is just a bitch

put it also this way, assuming there is some truth about efficient market hypothesis, then, for the masses, its makes sense that his portfolio is make up entirely of high quality companies so as to participate in the growth of the country / the companies themselves............


speculations and trading.....leave it to the pros
12/07/2019 12:37 PM
qqq3 neither armada nor insas qualifies as high grade investment propositions, whether one wants to trade / speculate...............or contrarian play, leave it to the pros.
12/07/2019 12:50 PM
stockraider The new FPSO will result in YINSON borrowing even exceeding Armada on an absolute basis, that means Yinson gearing will be very high loh...!!

That confirm armada mkt cap Rm 1.4b order books Rm 21b a better investment compare with Yinson mkt Cap Rm 7.2b order books Rm 4b loh.......!!

Rightfully armada should be value much higher than Yinson loh...!!

The good news for goreng Yinson will definitely raised & confirmed armada investment profile as a strong margin of safety & turnaround stock loh...!!
13/07/2019 12:33 PM
stockraider Posted by DickyMe > Jul 13, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

(S=QR) Philip "Sapura and Armada share price crash is because debt generation and interest repayments has increased, while their profit margins and revenues has dropped tremendously. ***With looming maturity of borrowings to be repaid in the very near future***, and no one willing to buy their bonds, it extend loans, their only option is to do rights issue, warrant or cash call. "

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/7293.jsp



Posted by stockraider > Jul 13, 2019 12:42 PM | Report Abuse X

It is true or not ??

If it is true then what about Yinson with gearing even higher than armada and with order books even lower than armada leh ??

REMEMBER SHARE PRICE IS WHAT U PAY, AND VALUE IS WHAT U GET LOH...!!

ALWAYS GO FOR MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jul 13, 2019 12:31 PM | Report Abuse X

The new FPSO will result in YINSON borrowing even exceeding Armada on an absolute basis, that means Yinson gearing will be very high loh...!!

That confirm armada mkt cap Rm 1.4b order books Rm 21b a better investment compare with Yinson mkt Cap Rm 7.2b order books Rm 4b loh.......!!

Rightfully armada should be value much higher than Yinson loh...!!

The good news for goreng Yinson will definitely raised & confirmed armada investment profile as a strong margin of safety & turnaround stock loh...!!
13/07/2019 12:46 PM
stockraider Thus don be fooled by professional conman loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jul 13, 2019 1:07 PM | Report Abuse X

Remember this investment principle loh...if u borrow from people with a promise to pay 8.25% pa...it should be treated as a borrowing even there is no fixed time of repayment loh...!!

If yinson go bankrupt surely the perpetual sukuk holders will rank as a creditors and not equity holders mah....!!

This is what happen to Spore hyflux when they keep classifying their perpetual bond as equity when legally it is indeed a debt loh....!!

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 11, 2019 12:19 PM | Report Abuse

The reason for the first perpetual sukuk (bond) and why it should be treated as an equty and not debt: most bonds have a redemption coupon and a maturity period. In the case of armada, when the debt on bonds came due and the you have to pay the full maturity period + coupon, liquidity for armada became tight and the share priced crashed as the possibility of default became very high.

With regards to Yinson and why it is very VERY favourable, the perpetual sukuk simply means that there is no maturity period (on the 6.8% return yearly). Depending on how you look at it, as long as Yinson pays the 6.8% in perpetuity they don't need to worry about the debt of the bond. aka PERPETUAL. no maturity date, no call date, they can keep it going for a very long time without entering default. In fact, they can decide to pay of the debt 15 years from now when the long term charter contracts are done with.

In essence, treat it as if your father decided to borrow you money without any agreement, with the assumption that your new business will pay back your father 7.85% every year in bond repayments and he will not chase you for the full repayment of the principal amount + coupon. He is your father after all.

One day you will pay him back everything, but as long as you pay back that coupon rate every year, he will not complain to you mother.

Page 1 2 3 4 5 6
13/07/2019 1:09 PM
stockraider This is the right investment Perspective Of Icon loh....!!

Always Look forward & look at the current & future strong improvement & recovery trend loh...!!

This is how u make big monies loh...!!

Icon is right a real sifu that can capitalised on the strong tuenaround loh...!!


Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 13, 2019 4:40 PM | Report Abuse

Almost every oil and gas counters got caught

Just check out their balance sheets

9 out of 10 are saddled with debts


Icon8888
17450 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 13, 2019 4:42 PM | Report Abuse

You can keep harping on armada's once in century mistakes, or you can come down from your moral high horse and capitalise on the opportunity to buy it cheap

Your money your call
14/07/2019 12:13 AM
stockraider Don be sochai, let face reality mah....!!

Ask yourself honestly Perpetual bond is a debt loan or not mah ?
Yes it is a long term loan and legally it is a debt.
A debt always ranked ahead of equity in the pecking order in terms of repayment loh...!!

Forget about accounting rules, it serve a commercial purpose, as it is trying to encourage hybrid financial products, not understand by simple layman like Philip loh...!!

In fact Yinson Perpetual Bond is a hybyrid junk bond loh...!!
Why leh ?? Yinson bond rate is 7% to 9% pa but your borrowing rates only 3.5% to 6.0% pa loh...!!
Why higher rates leh ?? Bcos people view it as risky loh....!!

So just becareful of Yinson, i see it is like Sapura & Armada 5 to 10 years ago, the share price has hyped up with full of optimism, don get trap loh..!!

Do not listen to conman fund manager & analyst loh, they just want to fatten u for a slaughter eventually loh...!!

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 14, 2019 6:03 AM | Report Abuse

Accounting rules say you are wrong. Understand the business first itself then look to the debt.

If you understand this better you will understand why foreign investors and major institutions have been buying yinson from 4.09 to 7.20 today.


stockraider
11533 posts
Posted by stockraider > Jul 14, 2019 10:48 AM | Report Abuse X

Finally qqq talk some sense here loh....!!

But definitely Armada & sapura is very much better than jaks & knm loh....!!

Yes armada & sape can classify as big margin of safety turnaround big quality stock loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 14, 2019 9:53 AM | Report Abuse

(S=QR) Philip > Jul 14, 2019 6:03 AM | Report Abuse

what they don't touch Armada.
========

they don't touch because they are not supposed to be contrarians.......but contrarians make a lot of money........


qqq3
11971 posts
Posted by qqq3 > Jul 14, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

buy Armada now like buying Jaks at 50 sens...........

and KNM at 15 sen..........
14/07/2019 10:53 AM
stockraider Armada a truly quality company and about same standard as Yinson loh ??

1. It achieved the latest same qtr profit as yinson.
2. It has slightly lesser gearing compare to yinson
3. It has more fpso than yinson
4. Armada revenue is twice of yinson.
5 Armada equity is twice of yinson.

MOST IMPORTANT INVESTMENT PREPOSITION : ARMADA is 7 times cheaper than yinson.
16/07/2019 10:50 AM
Icon8888 Where is this Mr Know All ? Hiding in Kalimantan ?



(HK1997 again) Philip everybody else are stupid

you are the best.

Icon8888 is the wonderful sifu.

Hard to comment here when everything anyone says which is not music to your ears tends to have a sharp retort.

Then again, when someone has put money into the stock and writes an article, the last thing they want to hear is the voice of reason.

It is far easier to surround yourself with nodding heads and smiling voices saying what a brilliant investor you are!

So kudos icon8888, you really are the best at understanding numbers and making assumptions from financial reports. Love reading your articles. I'll just keep quiet and agree with your remarks and articles and skip over the few glaring errors in your article.

Yeah, good article icon8888, make it count. Don't waste all that effort with a small position, make it count!
30/06/2019 9:47 PM
13/09/2019 3:59 PM
VenFx Hihi !
Cant be so sure
Market is bery smart
Sifu more smart

Philip love branded high class stuff only.
On 2nd think high class is safer ?
When disaster come, no one are safe for sure.
13/09/2019 4:05 PM
Icon8888 His problem is that he like to jump into conclusion
13/09/2019 4:06 PM
Icon8888 I am more humble

I know what I know and what I don't know
13/09/2019 4:06 PM
VenFx Yaa, he still young
No harm to be humble
Benefits everyone
13/09/2019 4:08 PM
stockraider Remember the next immediate target is rm 0.40....then the next tp will be rm 0.50 to rm 0.60 loh...!!

The longterm tp of armada is rm 2.00....if it matched with yinson current share price loh...!!
13/09/2019 6:00 PM
stockraider Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int (Section 138 of CA 2016)

BUMI ARMADA BERHAD

Particulars of substantial Securities Holder

Name EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD
Address Tingkat 19
Bangunan KWSP
Jalan Raja Laut
Kuala Lumpur
50350Wilayah Persekutuan
Malaysia.
Company No. EPF ACT 1991
Nationality/Country of incorporation Malaysia
Descriptions (Class) Ordinary shares in Bumi Armada Berhad ("BAB Shares")

Details of changes

No Date of change
No of securities
Type of Transaction Nature of Interest
1 10 Sep 2019
6,000,000
Acquired Direct Interest
Name of registered holder Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (RHB INV)
Address of registered holder Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Level 42, Menara Citibank, 165 Jalan Ampang, 50450 Kuala Lumpur.
Description of "Others" Type of Transaction


Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Acquisition
Nature of interest Direct Interest
Direct (units) 326,326,300
Direct (%) 5.553
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Total no of securities after change 326,326,300
Date of notice 11 Sep 2019
Date notice received by Listed Issuer 13 Sep 2019


Remarks :
The registered holders of the 326,326,300 Shares as follows:

1. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident Fund Board - in respect of 247,982,300 BAB Shares

2. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd- Employees Provident FD BD (RHB INV)- in respect of 6,000,000 BAB Shares

3. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (CIMB PRI) - in respect of 47,495,500 BAB Shares

4. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (ARIM) - in respect of 7,000,000 BAB Shares

5. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (ABERDEEN) - in respect of 17,848,500 BAB shares
13/09/2019 6:52 PM
stockraider Armada have the following good news & catalyst and its share price will keep shooting upwards on sustain basis loh...!!

1. Armada equity and contract on hand much bigger than yinson.

2. Armada latest to qtr earnings has exceeded yinson. With its last qtr earnings exceeded yinson profit 2x.

3. Armada borrowing has been reduced by 1 billion & coming down further.

4. The new ceo has initiated alot of wealth creation initiative.

5. Most importantly armada share price already breakout from rm 0.30 resistance after very long consolidations and expected the momentum to carry it higher loh...!!

6. EPF has been regularly buying armada recently with large quantities.


Yes u will see better days for Armada, just hang tight loh...!!
14/09/2019 12:07 PM
coolio Well done Icon8888....
Mr Know all hiding in thick haze now
14/09/2019 1:26 PM
Tom Tee 2 years repay back 2.0b debt. latest 2 qtr 487m repay. Strong cashflow generated from operation.
20/10/2019 8:01 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ 12.3.2020

Armada 16 sen!!!

Pretty Gruesome.


>>>>

Icon8888 both my detractors and supporters, we come back again in one year and see whether Armada is more than 22 sen

time will tell who is Warren Buffett who is Moron Buffalo

argue so much no use
08/07/2019 10:59 AM
>>>>

>>>>

Icon8888 without sochais like 3iii and Philips that cannot differentiate good buys from good companies, when will we have chance to make money ?

we should welcome their existence
08/07/2019 11:29 AM
>>>>>>

#################


Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

Posted by DickyMe > Jul 7, 2019 12:16 PM | Report Abuse

The title explains "A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy"

Guess, the author suggest never mind fundamental, integrity, competitiveness and relevance of the company in current business environment. The criteria of "cheap" is enough for a GAMBLE. In that case, there are almost 85% companies in KLSE which fits that criteria. So, please gamble because it is cheap.


>>>>



Thanks for highlighting.
08/07/2019 8:09 AM

##################
15/03/2020 9:50 AM
CharlesT Fm 0.20 to 0.55 in few months time...any sane investors oredi cut win long ago...

After hiding for more than 6 months now only post this rubbish for what leh
15/03/2020 11:24 AM
CharlesT Better spend more time checking on global covid 19 movements...

When covid 19 is gone then oil price will come back n....
15/03/2020 11:26 AM
CharlesT Be more proactive lah dont be so childish n small heart..all u old jokers
15/03/2020 11:27 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ 12.3.2020

Armada 16 sen!!!

Pretty Gruesome.


>>>>

Icon8888 both my detractors and supporters, we come back again in one year and see whether Armada is more than 22 sen

time will tell who is Warren Buffett who is Moron Buffalo

argue so much no use
08/07/2019 10:59 AM
>>>>
15/03/2020 2:09 PM
signalmw When. Ab Rw h 0.10
15/03/2020 2:19 PM

(Icon) IQ Group - Is it About To Turn Around ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 17 Jun 2019, 9:55 PM


I bought some IQ recently at about RM1.00.

 

It is a manufacturer of lighting products and sensors (infrared as well as motion). It sells its lighting products together with the sensors, or sensors on stand alone basis to customers.

 

 

In the past, IQ manufactures for customers as Original Equipement Manufacturer or Original Design Manufacturer. (OEM means IQ manufactures according to customers' design. ODM means IQ designs and then manufactures for its customers. In both cases, the customers will sell the products under its own brands)

 

However, recently, IQ starts selling under its own brand - LUMIQS.

 

 

LUMIQS has been quite well received in Japan.

 

 

The stock has come down by a lot. It is now near 5 year all time low.

 

 

But buying at all time low doesn't necessarily mean it is ok. If fundamental is not good, it can potentially slide further.

 

So, is it a good buy or not a good buy at RM1.00 ?

 

First of all, market cap is RM88 mil at current level. Meaning the stock is ok as long as it can make RM8.8 mil profit per annum.

 

 

Can it ?

 

A quick check shows that in the past, it could make as much as RM28 mil per annum during good time.

 

 

In FYE March 2018, the group's profitability was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :-

(a) slow down in sales (reason unknown);

(b) delay in product launches;

(c) forex loss; and

(d) one off expenses to reward employees.

 

 

In FYE March 2019, the group was busy streamlining its operations. It has always had two manufacturing plants : one in Penang (35% of sales), and another in Dongguan, China (65% of sales). During FYE March 2019, it moved all its operation to Dongguan, China.

 

(In the latest development, it further moved its China operation from Dongguan to Wuning city at neighbouring Jiangxi province due to labour shortage)

 

FYE March 2019 was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :

(a) relocation cost;

(b) Penang retrenchment cost; and

(c) RM8 mil delay in shipment in final quarter caused by labour shortage at Dongguan.

 

 

The following is company's comments about its prospects :

 

 (Source : March 2019 quarterly report)

 

Labels: IQGROUP
  3 people like this.
 
probability amazing that they are competent enough to move to China....

shortage of labour in Dongguan? thats something i cant understand
17/06/2019 10:42 PM
probability http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1139971.shtml
17/06/2019 11:33 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I could answer this question, the reason was actually very simple. Prior to 2018, iq group was going very well as a ODM and OEM for other international companies. Meaning they would make products that were used and branded by Osram, Phillips, L&E, etc. Demand and sales were doing very well.
However it decided to tip it's hand by using the design learned from it's customers and produce it's own product, which directly competed with it's own customers. This was a disastrous move.

Being very unhappy, and as the main players for LED lighting is very small, almost all of them decided to drop purchasing from iqgroup and found other manufacturers instead. Almost overnight the sales and earnings dried up.

Moving forward, iqgroup will no longer be able to do OEM or ODM business as they have burned that bridge. Time Will tell if lumiqs is able to compete in a very competitive marketplace.

>>>>>>>>>

in FYE March 2018, the group's profitability was adversely affected by a combination of the followings :-

(a) slow down in sales (reason unknown);
18/06/2019 3:11 AM
Eastern686 Thank you Philip. Now I know why their profit tank.
18/06/2019 5:22 AM
anticon don't tipu lah, you scumbag conman and cheater Icon8888. Ya lah, very clever you ask people to buy while you sell always. You scumbag conman and cheater Icon8888 had been doing this trick so many time and didn't I caught you before and you subconsciously admit it. Friends, please don't get con and cheater by this tipu conman pariah Icon8888.
Better you scumbag conman and cheater Icon8888, go and jump into the jamban hole and hide there, you tak malu always want to con and cheat, puii puii puii.
18/06/2019 7:32 AM
soojinhou I do have that suspicion that establishing its own brand it at the cost of OEM/ODM business. In any way, even though IQ Group tries to brand Lumiqs as a somewhat Western brand, the Passive Infra Red (PIR) space is very crowded. Just do a search on PIR sensors in Alibaba and you will see a huge array of products from Chinese manufacturers. I'm also irked by the way IQ Group advertises their products claiming that it saves up to 90% electricity without divulging the basis of that claim. LEDs are about 80% more efficient than Halogens so a simple change from Halogen to LED would be able to meet that 90% goal. Having said that, price has come down a lot so the risk-reward is much better than when it was RM3+ few years ago.
18/06/2019 9:01 AM
value88 U guys can refer to Karex when it decided to have its own brand of condom, its sales from other customer decreased, and its marketing expenses for its own brand products increased. Resulting, decreasing earnings..
18/06/2019 12:31 PM
value88 I am not saying IQ will end up like Karex, but the principle is we need to watch out when a company decides to develop its own brand, after being a OEM/ODM manufacturer for some times. It can be a make or break situation.
18/06/2019 12:32 PM
Lukey_Greek Yes, it makes me think of Karex too. Sales keep going down. The issues are structural instead of cyclical.
18/06/2019 1:56 PM
supersaiyan3 Tough market. Now China players are sending its goods through Taiwan and Vietnam. Another relocation to Malaysia is good. Lol
18/06/2019 9:53 PM
Investor 999 中美贸易战使到很多美国大公司的生产线已经陆续从中国迁移至东南亚各国, IQ 却从马国迁移到中国, 你认为她历害吗?
19/06/2019 7:23 PM
Choivo Capital No idea. Would be better if they stuck to OEM.
19/06/2019 9:39 PM
Tom Tee LED lighting is a very competitive red sea market especially in China. We actually able to get the online purchase through Taobao/Lazada full with choices of Led light with very cheap price. But this is the residential lighting. i am not sure IQ group manufacture which type of lighting. IQ group for sure has the ability to manufacture the lighting. But not sure whether do they have ability to explore to the market which is last time is not doing by them.
19/06/2019 10:59 PM
zhen wei & JP Well seems like a good brand luminars?
Have not tried this... Im going to try this.
19/06/2019 11:41 PM
godhand Choivo Capital No idea. Would be better if they stuck to OEM.

also means highly competitive i have always agree with their approach.
05/07/2019 4:32 AM
16/11/2019 9:06 AM
TradeLearner @icon8888 are you still holding IQ shares? I sense it is nearing it's turnaround point, and the current price looks extremely beaten down. With almost non-existent retails holders.

But every quarter, it's the same story. What do you all think?
25/12/2019 2:36 PM

(Icon) Trade War ? What Trade War ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 15 Jun 2019, 8:56 AM


Watch this video.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG-aEwY0R50

 
Trade war ? What trade war ? Before the first shot is fired, America has already lost.
 
America can stop exporting to China, it can stop buying from China ....
 
But it cannot stop doing business IN China.
 
It is a 1.4 bil population market.
 
US GDP per capita is now 6 times that of China, and it is already doing USD343 bil business in China now.
 
When China's GDP per capita one day reach America level (why not ?), this business will balloon to USD2.06 trillion PER ANNUM.
 
Is America saying that it is willing to forego these business opportunities and hand them over to the Europeans and Japanese ?
 
The fact is that America needs China as much as China needs them.
 
Without China, most American businesses will cease to grow over next twenty years.
 
Period.
  5 people like this.
 
Finalburst 'The fact is that America needs China as much as China needs them.'

i couldn't agree more on this.
15/06/2019 9:20 AM
Beary China have time and resilience on its side and will eventually win any trade war.

The only advantage the yankees have over China now is its military.

Do not be surprised if they try to provoke a military war over Taiwan or South China Seas next when they realise this trade war is getting them nowhere.

The yankees know time is running out for them.

It is now or never.

They know they could lose even their military edge over China in a couple more decades.

You know the writing is on the wall when trumpet sounds so desperate and behaves like a big bully.
15/06/2019 9:41 AM
king36 DT is a con man long exposed by David Coy Johnston.
He always manipulates facts and twists them to excite his ignorant audience to glorify himself.
All his dealings are being exposed one by one now and we can see them in American's reporting.
He claims China wants the deal and he always win.
Now we see how desperate he is when Xi refuses yo attend G20.
You can cheat and lie.
But you cannot assume that your audience are dump forever.
China's market is huge and China has overtake USA in many fields.
Nobody can ignore the force that is rising.
15/06/2019 10:49 AM
Shinnzaii huawei close relationship with china...i saw now Apple close relationship with trump...hehe
15/06/2019 11:04 AM
qqq3 the question is can Wall Street still pretend after the no show in coming G20 meeting?
15/06/2019 11:42 AM
laychee For the past few days, DT seems to soften a bit after the poll shows he will 100% lose in the next election. He was ranked #6.

After that, he seems eager to settle the war soon. He even cancelled a dispute complaint with WTO.

Now, trade bodies are forbiddibg DT to raise more tarriffs before 2nd of July.

As long as China is keeping quiet, it will win this war.
15/06/2019 12:22 PM
paulthesotong Negotiate, sure! Fight, anytime!! Bully us, wishful thinking!!!!
15/06/2019 12:27 PM
qqq3 hitting China is very popular with Americans, those low class uneducated voters............as such, the best chance for Trump re election is to continue to fight China.
15/06/2019 12:31 PM
teareader818 Donald Trump is a patriot. He only wants what is good for US , which can be painful for other countries, friends or foes alike. You cannot escape the fact that in his two and the half year tenure, he has done more for the country than any past president. Too bad if you love Hillary or Obama, for they have now been exposed for their traitorous misdeeds.
15/06/2019 12:36 PM
Eastern686 Agree 100% with teareader818.
15/06/2019 12:40 PM
shortinvestor77 Trade war will benefit Malaysia, Vietnam and some Asean Countries. Why not?
15/06/2019 12:42 PM
shortinvestor77 Support DT. Rebalance the world trade deficits. China has been sucking huge blood from US, immorally.
15/06/2019 12:43 PM
shortinvestor77 Yet China still cannot stand alone. It banned Google, Facebook etc in China. It anti Taiwan, snti Japan, suppress Hong Kong . It wants become king of South China sra.
15/06/2019 12:46 PM
15/06/2019 12:46 PM
shortinvestor77 Why so many blinds support China?
15/06/2019 12:47 PM
Alex™ hehe,
china ban google, diam.
US ban huawei, rage
15/06/2019 1:05 PM
Alex™ btw cnbc leftist channel, how can support trump?
15/06/2019 1:06 PM
qqq3 China shared prosperity

Trump shared disaster.
15/06/2019 1:25 PM
chinaman We don't support China nor US. We support free trade for all cari makan. wakaka
15/06/2019 1:37 PM
laychee China central government wants to be world#1. Communism can only survive if the whole are of the same ideology.

Communism will not support open and fair market. Open and fair market can only slow down the wealth collection intention and result.

DT has been doing great for US. DT just US to be good with US slowly giving up the status as world benevolent police like post world war II era.

One is strengthening its communism strength using unfair trades.

The other is giving up its world influence by strengthening its internal structures (rights for white people).

Who is better? No one.
15/06/2019 1:44 PM
qqq3 Ban Huawei, that is America's rights

Kidnap CFO and trying to kill Huawei..........that is war.
15/06/2019 1:54 PM
qqq3 laychee > Jun 15, 2019 1:44 PM | Report Abuse

Who is better? No one.
========

sad that Malaysia got some Trump red necks.
15/06/2019 1:56 PM
qqq3 look at Canada..........

People think Canada is good country yet it kidnaps Huawei girl and refuse to take back rubbish.

goes to show, even Canada is not a good country. They never were.
15/06/2019 1:58 PM
PureBULL ... The BEST n most POWERFUL company globally must be listed publicly.

Yes, the entire world is awaiting for that guy in huawei to announce he's
listing it on hkse soon n later on nyse.

To Maintain World Security For All; u, me n all our children:
How can the tier # 1 company, huawei, is owned by 1 individual or country that will control our world?
Be generous like amore, list lah your co, n let everybody, u n me a chance to prosper in the plc..
n trade WAR will end immediately !!!

Even tier # 2 powerful companies like Fbook, goog etc r listed long ago.

Mkt forces can maintain World Security n PEACE !


b4 we text, ASK this??
To Maintain World Security For All; u, me n specially all our CHILDREN
15/06/2019 1:58 PM
qqq3 Being privately owned gives Huawei flexibility and allows for long range planning. Very useful.
15/06/2019 2:00 PM
teareader818 Trump is a disruptor and the world at large hates him. For one, he has banned lobbyists (aka corruptors)and that alone has put a lot of people in US and in other countries out of work. The MSM hate media have been working overtime to drag him down. Do you wonder why the ratings of CNN have hit bottom?
15/06/2019 2:05 PM
Alex™ hehe, alibaba also cant move much without gomen approval.
15/06/2019 2:08 PM
teareader818 US and China are super powers. We can only talk that's all. About Malaysia, it is different, we have the power to change the country for the better.
15/06/2019 2:19 PM
Icon8888 Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees
15/06/2019 3:31 PM
king36 Icon8888 Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees
15/06/2019 3:31 PM

That's economic socialism - beginning to pick up steam even in USA now.
15/06/2019 3:58 PM
Choivo Capital No.

Boss owns 2% directly, the rest is in an employee fund, where the boss holds the bulk of it.


=====
Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 15, 2019 3:31 PM | Report Abuse

Huawei not owned by one man

Its boss owns 2%, the rest owned by employees
15/06/2019 4:00 PM
PureBULL ... Amore said; only a person of militarily background will risk own daughter's life n happiness to rule our world.

n try Stay v close to rich n powerful chinese, then u will know their behaviour.
n their feeling for u n if there's love ever for u n your existence in this world !
The problem is simple, the solution is difficult to come by.
the situpeed idiotic pres is doing n risking his own future for your peace n all..
15/06/2019 4:27 PM
qqq3 daughter is taking a PhD in jail.
15/06/2019 5:14 PM
qqq3 Huawei shows Marxism works
15/06/2019 5:47 PM
shortinvestor77 So many naive, communist government is the real big boss behind Huawei, Alibaba etc.
15/06/2019 7:27 PM
mach10 CHINA believes DT can only last one term as the recent poll showed.CHINA will not negotiate with the present US administration and drag on until DT steps down.
15/06/2019 9:31 PM
pjseow Both US and China knows there is no winner in trade war but Trump still want to start the trade war. Why? What is in his mind? Only US democracy will elect such a moronic President. China will never have such third class president .To qualify for such important post, you must have the experience and credentials managing at least a province successfully before being considered as president. Imagine a CEO of a big multinational is elected by all the employees and anyone including production operator can stand for CEO post. An outspoken operator with zero knowledge of managing a country might be elected as CEO if he or she can lobby enough support .The company will go down to the drain。This is exactly what happen to US .Trump is a mad and dangerous president.
15/06/2019 9:39 PM
Alex™ poll also shows hillary will win. CNN (clinton news network) syoik sendiri hehe
15/06/2019 9:51 PM
qqq3 govt is real big boss shows govt works in China
15/06/2019 11:14 PM
SureWin1Woh China may not be trustable as publicly known. But USA is not any better. The white mens are also known for their fakeness.... trying to portrait as the holder of fairness and supporting democracy. They are the main FOX of the world.
It's my dream to see the change of world supreme guardian from the west to Asia. The angmo always bring down the Asian tigers whenever they felt threatened by their rise.
Whatever said, the angmo can stop/kill the Tigers but not the awaken DRAGON.
15/06/2019 11:26 PM
kiers in vietnam war, there was a stereotype "The Quiet American". Everyone knows trumpf policy is bs. Everyone knows that US companies are the main value-added "imports" into US economy. Everyone knows US companies "exports" are not included in economic stats b/c they happen from Ireland cayman islands registered companies/subsidiaries, but they are QUIET about it. Try and understand the Anglo kia-su mind!
16/06/2019 12:52 AM
kiers anglo very slick
16/06/2019 12:55 AM
hooi The Great Wall of China has historical proven the greatness of China.
The US even have a hard time to start the mexican wall.
That’s the difference between this 2 countries on human will.
16/06/2019 10:21 AM
laychee Trade war now becomes football as analysts here are using 'greatness' to judge.

Theorectically, communism will prevail if the leader is strong.

Democracy is weak or chaotic when the two strongest parties attract half of the citizen.

Britain, US, Malaysia, ...are now having the 50-50 support problem.

From logical point of view, China will win.

But DT is using every single loophole of US democracy to win such as signing executive orders...
16/06/2019 10:56 AM
Sami_Value Apa susah sangat, China + Rusia + India + Middle East, sama-sama pakat kasi gang bang US.

There rest of the world should join the gang bang sama US, 1 kali kasi ajar cukup-cukup. We all die but we make sure US got ANNIHILATED.
16/06/2019 11:22 AM
OhTheBee (otb) Sami_Value>>> Apa susah sangat, China + Rusia + India + Middle East, sama-sama pakat kasi gang bang US.

There rest of the world should join the gang bang sama US, 1 kali kasi ajar cukup-cukup. We all die but we make sure US got ANNIHILATED.
16/06/2019 11:22 AM

========

US has more than 1 thousand nukes.
Be prepared to eat 1 thousand nukes if the China + Russia gang want to ajar US cukup cukup.
16/06/2019 11:50 AM
16/06/2019 11:53 AM
chinaman Just one moron, don't drag whole world into destruction. Sack the moron president. everything back to normal...Since US is democratic nation, cannot sack President??? wakaka
16/06/2019 11:54 AM
Alex™ Hehe, American happy now oh. Billions of dollars to gomen reserve becoz of tariff. Why sack ah trump leh?
16/06/2019 2:19 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) The tariff not paid by gonna government or even come nationals... It's actually paid by local US importers and manufacturers and trading houses who suddenly lose a source of cheap goods.

Expectations and reality very different.
16/06/2019 5:39 PM
rikki https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jimmy-carter-china-war-infrastructure-economy-trade-war-church-1396086
16/06/2019 8:11 PM

(Icon) Howard Mark's Investing Wisdom : Patient Opportunism

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 2 May 2019, 2:16 AM


(a) Patient opportunism—waiting for bargains—is often your best strategy.

(b) You’ll do better if you wait for investments to come to you rather than go chasing after them. Select from the list of things sellers are motivated to sell rather than start with a fixed notion as to what you want to own.

Try to sit on your hands. Don't go out with a “buy list”; rather, wait for the phone to ring.
 
(c) Investors needn’t feel pressured to act. They can pass up lots of opportunities until they see one that’s terrific.
 
There’s no penalty for omitting good investments, the only real penalty is for making losing investments. 
 
Having said so, calibration is important. Set the bar too high and you might remain out of the market for a very long time. Set it too low and you will be fully invested almost immediately; it will be as though you had no standards at all. Experience and versatile thinking are the keys to such calibration.
 
(d) We may look through fifty or seventy investments to find a handful of good ones. If we buy six that work out and miss fifteen that we should have bought, we never view this as a loss.
 
(e) Warren Buffett said there is no need to swing for every pitch. The bat should come off our shoulders when there are opportunities for profit with controlled risk.
 
One way to be selective in this regard is by making every effort to ascertain whether we’re in a low-return environment or a high-return environment.
 
A low return environment is when price is high. The opposite is true for a high return environment. It is not advisable to pursue high return in a low return environment. Because it can only be achieved through increased risk.
 
(f) The market’s not a very accommodating machine; it won’t provide high returns just because you need them.
 
You simply cannot create investment opportunities when they’re not there. The dumbest thing you can do is to insist on perpetuating high returns—and give back your profits in the process. If it’s not there, hoping won’t make it so.
 
(g) Having said so, you can take a long term view. During low return environment, you can invest anyway—ignoring short-run risk and focusing on the long run. This isn’t irrational, especially if you accept the notion that market timing and tactical asset allocation are difficult.
  11 people like this.
 
ongkkh Thanks Icon
02/05/2019 6:40 AM
02/05/2019 8:15 AM
fairman Post removed. Why?
02/05/2019 2:03 PM
fairman Post removed. Why?
02/05/2019 2:08 PM
fairman Post removed. Why?
02/05/2019 2:16 PM
qqq3 this post is written from experience from the heart, not those quote here there.
02/05/2019 4:56 PM
qqq3 low-return environment or a high-return environment.?

how about S= Q r

when u see high r opportunity, u gasak lah.


sizing of trades according to r is one fast way to make it...........


play for real, no longer play for fun.


play for real or play for fun no longer about how smart. it is about character and habit.
02/05/2019 5:11 PM
arv18 Thanks. A nice article.
02/05/2019 5:14 PM
calvintaneng Good one

I reading now

Howard Marks' Mastering The Market Cycle

One of the best brain in it's field
02/05/2019 11:44 PM
michaelwong I appreciate part (b) and many have failed to choose bcos of self impatient to strike as the right at the right stocks to own up . As big time investors you really look different from others with your exceptional views that makes your choice of investments with safety of margin .
03/05/2019 2:07 AM
Choivo Capital Icon writing and thinking seem to be a bit different these days. Quite interesting.

I actually find myself going through his old comments for some ideas.
03/05/2019 1:58 PM
Choivo Capital May i know whats your thinking behind AWC?
03/05/2019 2:01 PM
03/05/2019 2:03 PM
qqq3 esos is worth it, once the IPP goes online.

this ALP young ambitious, right idea how to turn a dying pipes company inherited from father into a blue chip.

set backs from the property and construction side, but the war not over yet.
03/05/2019 2:42 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>

Choivo Capital Icon writing and thinking seem to be a bit different these days. Quite interesting.

I actually find myself going through his old comments for some ideas.
03/05/2019 1:58 PM

>>>



Traumatised by his severe losses in 2018, icon8888 has to modify and refine his investing philosophy and method.
03/05/2019 7:24 PM
03/05/2019 7:24 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>
(g) Having said so, you can take a long term view. During low return environment, you can invest anyway—ignoring short-run risk and focusing on the long run. This isn’t irrational, especially if you accept the notion that market timing and tactical asset allocation are difficult.
>>>>


I was shocked and pleasantly surprised that icon8888 posted the above.

He was very against this approach probably because he could not see how people using this method can make money for the long term.

Perhaps, he has seen the "light'.
03/05/2019 7:26 PM
cheoky Straight to point. What is the stock to buy now sifu
03/05/2019 7:33 PM
qqq3 osted by 3iii > May 3, 2019 7:26 PM | Report Abuse

>>>
(g) Having said so, you can take a long term view. During low return environment, you can invest anyway—ignoring short-run risk and focusing on the long run. This isn’t irrational, especially if you accept the notion that market timing and tactical asset allocation are difficult.
>>>>


that is in case of mistakes....Icon is not a cut loss guy ( normally)
03/05/2019 7:48 PM
VenFx " wait for the phone to ring "

Learnt from icon8888
03/05/2019 7:55 PM
qqq3 Posted by VenFx > May 3, 2019 7:55 PM | Report Abuse

" wait for the phone to ring "

Learnt from icon8888
=========

share market can lah.....but not in dating.
03/05/2019 8:02 PM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (9) - Potential Reason Behind Jaks-WB's High Conversion Premium

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 5 Apr 2019, 12:40 PM


Currently, Jaks is trading at RM0.84 while Jaks-WB is trading at RM0.62. As Jaks-WB's exercise price is RM0.64, conversion premium will be as follows :

 

Conversion premium = RM(0.62 + 0.64) / RM0.84 = RM1.26 / RM0.84 = 50%

 

The conversion premium in absolute term is RM0.42, being RM1.26 less RM0.84. Is this excessive ? To answer that question, we need to look at percentage.

 

In percentage term, as shown above, the conversion premium is 50%. This is significantly higher than the 25% to 30% we usually see in the market for Warrants. Are holders of Jaks-WB foolish by not taking profit now ?

 

No, they are not. Because things will look very different if Jaks price continues to go up. 

 

For illustration purpose, let's say if Jaks price goes up by RM1.16 from the current RM0.84 to RM2.00 and Jaks-WB moves up in lock step. Jaks-WB will reach RM1.78 (being RM0.62 now + RM1.16), the conversion premium will be as follows :-

 

Conversion premium = RM(1.78 + 0.64) / RM2.00 = RM2.42 / RM2.00 = 21%

 

Can you see how the conversion premium drops as Jaks mother shares go higher ?

 

Lets' say if mother shares go up another RM2.00 to RM4.00, what will happen ?

 

Based on the same assumption that Jaks-WB goes up in lock step, it will reach RM3.78 (from RM1.78).

 

Conversion premium = RM(3.78 + 0.64) / RM4.00 = RM4.42 / RM4.00 = 10%

 

Can you see how the conversion premium has dropped to very minimal level, significantly below the market norm of 25% to 30% ?

 

The figures used above for illustration purpose were based on bold assumption that Jaks can one day touch RM4.00. Can Jaks ever reach there ? Lets' compare with MFCB. Based on 260 MW, MFCB's hydropower project is expected to generate RM200 mil net profit (according to analysts). By extrapolation based on Jaks' effective capacity of 360 MW (being 30% stake), the Vietnam IPP can potentially generate RM276 mil. Lets' say interest expenses maintains at RM28 mil, and mall losses RM12 mil (being 50% of RM24 mil losses), net profit = RM276 mil less RM28 mil less RM12 mil = RM236 mil.

 

Based on 580 mil shares, EPS = 40 sen.

 

Based on 10 times PER, target price of RM4.00 within two to three years time is not unachievable. 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

The conversion premium of Jaks-WB looked very high based on current market price of mother shares. However, in the event that Jaks really one day goes up to RM4.00, the conversion premium will drop to very conservative level. (The same applies to RM3.00, RM2.00, RM1.50 etc, but to varying degree).

 

As such, the promoters (insiders) are not foolish. By allowing Jaks-WB to trade at such hefty premium (without selling down to take profit), they are hinting that there is still plenty of upside for mother shares (and hence Jaks-WB).

 

In this regard, sit tight, don't even move a muscle. Just dumb dumb hold. Jaks-WB could be your ticket to escape from poverty.

 

Have a nice day. 

Labels: JAKS, JAKS-WB
  4 people like this.
 
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 7:29 AM | Report Abuse

Doesn't matter

I don't trust KB, so I don't make their money

Let others make it

I am at peace with myself

No regret

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 7:30 AM | Report Abuse

In stock market , certain money is not for me to make

Day one I started with bursa many many years ago, I already aware of that
07/04/2019 8:27 AM
CharlesT Walau a...what happened to Icon8888 in 3 months time?

Someone hacked his ac?
07/04/2019 8:28 AM
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 6, 2019 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

There are a few persons in i3 I know can never reason with

So I never argue with them

qqq3, CharlesT, ah Seng the distorted mind

So, see you



Fm his Sifu in Jan now becomes the distorted mind in Apr...

Scary
07/04/2019 8:31 AM
CharlesT Could it be Alien killed Icon8888 b get his ID during his vacation in Tasmania?
07/04/2019 8:32 AM
CharlesT I die die dont believe my friend Icon8888 is such an axxhole kacang lupakan kulit after his JAKS went up from 0.40+ to 0.80+ and forgot all those who helped him in the past....

It must be ALIEN's work........
07/04/2019 8:37 AM
CharlesT It must be......
07/04/2019 8:39 AM
CharlesT Icon8888 is not that kind of person...

Till now i am still grateful to his tips of Johotin-wa which save my ass few years ago
07/04/2019 8:41 AM
Icon8888 Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
07/04/2019 8:45 AM
CharlesT I must say i m quite proud of it....
07/04/2019 8:51 AM
CharlesT Very consistent mah
07/04/2019 8:51 AM
CharlesT This is not so consistent loh, after JAKS up from 0.40+ to 0.80+

6 sense becomes 67 sense

Sifu becomes distorted mind

I love Koon becomes I dont make this kind of money
07/04/2019 9:11 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
===========

no regrets. No reason to regret my postings. I have done my best.
07/04/2019 9:51 AM
Icon8888 There is nothing inconsistent.

What happened is I made a bit of money punting curry mee so I thank Uncle Koon and said I love him

But is it not big amount. Enough for KFC only. So it is also true when I said KB money not for me to make. This is especially true during this round Dayang. I stayed out of it

The above are the truth . I don't need to cook up all these explanations to BS you


CharlesT
7410 posts
Posted by CharlesT > Apr 7, 2019 9:11 AM | Report Abuse

I love Koon becomes I dont make this kind of money
07/04/2019 10:03 AM
qqq3 And if I say I have made enough in Dayang to close shop for 2019?
07/04/2019 10:12 AM
Icon8888 Good on you ! There is nothing wrong making it from KB

It is just not my cup of tea
07/04/2019 10:16 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.

Nothing new to learn here. Moving on.

>>>>>

16591 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
07/04/2019 10:20 AM
probability Icon dont need to use KB ma...he can create it if he wants....he he

by the way - please dont Icon.. we need diversity of choices
07/04/2019 10:22 AM
CharlesT KB is easy extra money why not?

But of course we all hv our own ways to make money
07/04/2019 10:27 AM
probability good to have 'hard money' options..easy money comes n goes easily
07/04/2019 10:29 AM
qqq3 Posted by CharlesT > Apr 7, 2019 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

KB is easy extra money why not?
==========

how much depends on how many was bought and sold at what price.....its experience and decisions.

and I am not talking about loose change and extra pocket money., I am talking about meaningful money., serious money.
07/04/2019 10:41 AM
Sslee Dear all,
As I mention before never mess up with CharlesT, unless you are Mr. Philip able to show your sausages.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/192330.jsp

“CharlesT is well knows as mighty and all knowing (brain with muscles). A walking human lie- detector with sharp observation and photographic memory. No one can escape his scrutiny as he can see straight/right through your mind of your pretending, falsehood or noble intention”

Thank you
07/04/2019 10:54 AM
probability ha ha...dont play play with charlest...
07/04/2019 10:56 AM
Nikmon Haha, so many sour grape but still the price getting higher higher...more dispute more entertainment, more transparent. Benefit all the investor.
07/04/2019 11:20 AM
Icon8888 I deleted because I don't want to boast mah. Not because I wanted to hide. Was for your consumption only.

Sigh why people so cynical always think on the negative side


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.
07/04/2019 11:23 AM
Icon8888 This sslee very green. Good intention to promote corporate governance. But the AGM questions he asked caused me to shake my head.

Same applies to his interpretation of facts and events when come to investing

But I scolded myself for being nasty to him. Repeatedly tell myself to be patient


Posted by Sslee > Apr 7, 2019 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
As I mention before never mess up with CharlesT, unless you are Mr. Philip able to show your sausages.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/192330.jsp

“CharlesT is well knows as mighty and all knowing (brain with muscles). A walking human lie- detector with sharp observation and photographic memory. No one can escape his scrutiny as he can see straight/right through your mind of your pretending, falsehood or noble intention”

Thank you
07/04/2019 11:27 AM
qqq3 Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

This sslee very green. Good intention to promote corporate governance. But the AGM questions he asked caused me to shake my head.

Same applies to his interpretation of facts and events when come to investing
==========================

this ss is green, naive and a novice in stock market.

but that is hardly the worse from the ss guy.
07/04/2019 11:31 AM
Nikmon Hope hope whoever accumulate behind the scene, dont stop..haha
07/04/2019 11:35 AM
qqq3 Mahathir says Knowledge, Integrity and grit is enough to build a family, build a strong country, be a natural leader.

Lets just assume SSlee has all 3. It is still not enough in this case. Some thing is still missing. Mahathir is wrong in this case.

so , what is missing?

I scratch and scratch to try to figure out what is missing. I think I have it. The missing part, in the case of SSlee, is called the brain.
07/04/2019 11:41 AM
qqq3 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/200643.jsp
07/04/2019 11:44 AM
Dato Seri John Lu CharlesT sifu have my full of respect
07/04/2019 11:45 AM
qqq3 by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

I electronic engineer specialise in communication system

My final year thesis was State of The Art Speech Recognition System. My final year project was related to Wavelength Division Multiplexing System
==============


with that resume, u should have founded Vitrox and not let 3 USM graduates beat u to it. Too bad, u went off to become a banker.
07/04/2019 11:50 AM
i3Value CharlesT suddenly back in action. What happened to KB? Bursa no action no fun without them in full force
07/04/2019 11:55 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:56 AM | Report Abuse

He lacks the ability to know what he knows what he doesn't know
=============

I can accept that explanation but it leads to the brain too doesn't it?
07/04/2019 11:57 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) ok la let you boast boast a bit, so you can be happy happy. It doesn't make a difference to me. The only thing that matters is how you carry yourself as a human being and how your investment theories work out.

As long as when you post your chun chun buy call, you match up with with your chun chun sell call, then i'll be happy to call you sifu all you want. don't pump and then dump, then I'll keep my comments to myself.

I assume since you say your JAKS is wonderful 10% portfolio investment you will keep it at least until it hits your assumed value of RM3?

Lets see how long that will take.

>>>>>
I electronic engineer specialise in communication system

My final year thesis was State of The Art Speech Recognition System. My final year project was related to Wavelength Division Multiplexing System
07/04/2019 12:22 PM
Icon8888 My attitude is to match your arrogance

Especially "I hope you learn something today"

Otherwise I am very humble

Check out my earlier posts all this while

I treat people nicely

Only assxxxx that walks around like he knows best will receive my special treatment


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

ok la let you boast boast a bit, so you can be happy happy. It doesn't make a difference to me. The only thing that matters is how you carry yourself as a human being and how your investment theories work out.
07/04/2019 12:32 PM
stockraider U talk big & have big egoistic meh ??

Ask yourself 1st how well your QL is doing against insas and mnrb b4 u try to talk big me 1st loh...!!

Do not try to simply rundown...U r not up to mark yet mah...!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

see, another troll in stockraider. He makes it worse when he copy paste entire past comments to fill up his comments to block out other people. what he doesn't realize is he just talks the same nonsense over and over using similar words. I give him 5 minutes before he pollutes this thread with new (repeated everywhere) comments on his 3 yrs 3 months SAPNRG 70 billion RM3 strategy.
07/04/2019 12:35 PM
VenFx I dont have any personal emotion to anyone here. 
Just the way my bro icon8888 argue or defence very humour. 

Like !
07/04/2019 12:37 PM
VenFx The other Coach i respect is TYyap ...
He has the quality attitudes as a coach.
Which is a must , so that be able to guide his students at the right path and attitude.
Although i just lucky to be able to wacth his live... after plane sifu recomend Tyyap.
07/04/2019 12:40 PM
stockraider But whatever u say we are still well ahead loh...!!

If make monies is like your logic big cap....then everybody just buy maybank loh....!!

I think u r not so stupid to come up with such a senseless arguement but i m wrong loh...!!

Your ego & arrogance affected u loh....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

your mnrb + insas is less than 15% of QL market cap. and you dont even invest in either of them, as your foaming spamming of SAPE everywhere is showing. trolls like to compare 3 months result and say their investing is working. I'm looking at 2+ years remember as per your challenge? give you a chance, as 10 years results nothing much to say la. we know who winning.

But more importantly, notice who doesn't go around spamming their investment thesis on every page? I'm confident in my investments, unlike office boy trolls.
07/04/2019 12:44 PM
Icon8888 This Sabah assxxxx so egoistic everybody quarrels with him
07/04/2019 12:50 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Here is one good lesson, from an old man who is wise enough to admit his mistakes.

don't boast so much on being an ex-investment banker/ex engineer etc.

Hope Icon8888 learn something new today.

>>>>>

Most investors cannot control their emotion. They are egoistic and greedy. When their shareholdings are going up, they would not sell and like to boast to all their friends that that are so clever to have bought them at much lower prices. The biggest problem that most shareholders have is greed and refuse to sell early to take profit. Profit seems like a dirty word. While the price is going higher, they continue to boast.
07/04/2019 12:51 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) stockraider... now you spam other thread as well? really nice job, i give you 3 minutes to start foaming at the mouth your wonderful SAPNRG investment 70 billion in 3 years and 3 months.
07/04/2019 12:52 PM
highcube It is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price.
07/04/2019 12:58 PM
stockraider Is it troll of different opinion leh ??

Dictator like u cannot stand a losing arguement will use troll to try to shut ur opponent up loh..!!

Raider is not impress loh....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 1:07 PM | Report Abuse

Troll shut up. Your comment makes zero sense whatsover. another troll who likes to argue for the sake of arguing.

Hey. Im still waiting on your spam on why SAPE is a good investment. Why so slow? need to warm up engine is it?

>>>>>
Agree is relative it does not mean u must be 100% agree mah...!!
07/04/2019 1:14 PM
qqq3 Posted by stockraider > Apr 7, 2019 1:14 PM | Report Abuse

Is it troll of different opinion leh ??
==========

not just about differences of opinion. Its the way u conduct yourself, your repetitions and the way u hog up space wherever u visit.
07/04/2019 1:23 PM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 12:32 PM | Report Abuse


"I hope you learn something today"

=================

I actually prefer this statement to the fake Thank Yous from u know who.


"I hope you learn something today" .....and more young people learn about investing as participating in the growth of excellent companies is a good thing. I am sure the PM and Bursa would approve.
07/04/2019 1:28 PM
qqq3 I don't think Icon has problem with anyone until they start giving negative comments on his stocks.....disturbing his counter and money making.....

as OTB too likes to say, u do yours, I do mine.

Sea water not to disturb well water.....happy happy make money, why so busy body?
07/04/2019 1:38 PM
Icon8888 Unilateral ceasefire from me

Everybody peace
07/04/2019 2:06 PM
Icon8888 No more comments

Just quietly enjoy the bull run

I expect it last into 2020
07/04/2019 2:07 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In I tell you all ah, US Treasury Yield Curve inverted liao.. Now it's time to buy into some zero leverage companies lah! Very dangerous times. I a bit scared!
07/04/2019 2:12 PM

(Icon) To Outperform The Market, You Need To Be A Contrarian

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 9 Feb 2019, 5:06 PM


October 28, 2016

 

1. Bill Gurley: “Being ‘right’ doesn’t lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.”

 

Andy Rachleff elaborates on the point made by Gurley: “What most people don’t realize is if you’re right and consensus you don’t make money.” It is a bit strange that most people don’t realize this truth and yet it is common sense: you simply can’t be part of the crowd and at the same time beat the crowd.

 

2. Jeff Bezos: “You just have to remember that contrarians are usually wrong.”

 

This point made by Bezos is the reason why most people follow the crowd. Michael Mauboussin explains this tendency with a simple example:

 

“Being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian is not a good idea. In other words, when the movie theater’s on fire, run out the door, right? Don’t run in the door…. Successful contrarian investing isn’t about going against the grain per se, it’s about exploiting expectations gaps. If this assertion is true, it leads to an obvious question: how do these expectations gaps arise? Or, more basically, how and why are markets inefficient?”

 

Mauboussin explains why some investments get mispriced so badly:

 

“Because if the crowd takes something to an extreme, either on the bullish side or the bearish side, that should show up in your disconnect between fundamentals and expectations. And that is what allows you to make a good investment… Again, the goal is not to be a contrarian just to be a contrarian, but rather to feel comfortable betting against the crowd when the gap between fundamentals and expectations warrants it. This independence is difficult because the widest gap often coincides with the strongest urge to be part of the group. Independence also incorporates the notion of objectivity—an ability to assess the odds without being swayed by outside factors. After all, prices not only inform investors, they also influence investors.”

 

3. Andy Rachleff: “Investment can be explained with a 2×2 matrix. On one axis you can be right or wrong. And on the other axis you can be consensus or non-consensus. Now obviously if you’re wrong you don’t make money. The only way as an investor and as an entrepreneur to make outsized returns is by being right and non-consensus.”

 

It is the existence of a gap between expected value and market price that Mauboussin talked about above which should drive investment decision making. If you have views which reflect the consensus of the crowd you are unlikely to outperform a market since a market by definition reflects the consensus view.  Buffett puts it this way: “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”

 

Charlie Munger is more direct and colorful in his explanation: “For a security to be mispriced, someone else must be a damn fool. It may be bad for world, but not bad for Berkshire.” Sometimes waves of social proof and other dysfunctional heuristics create a significant gap between price and value. This does not happen often in areas within a person’s circle of competence, but it does happen. For some investors, spotting a gap like this happens only once or twice a year and that is just fine with them. In those instances these investors bet big and the rest of the time they do nothing. Some people, like day traders, think they can spot gaps between expected value and market price several times a day and make a profit after fees (this is almost always a triumph of hope over experience).

 

 

4. Howard Marks: “To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.”

 

Being genuinely contrarian means the investor is going to be uncomfortable sometimes. Some people are good at being uncomfortable, and some are not. Peter Lynch said once: “To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do because they have rigid mind-sets.”

 

Successful investing is the search for the mistakes of other people that may create a mispriced asset (Howard Marks). In other words, one person’s mistake about the value of an asset is what can create an opportunity for another investor to outperform the market.

 

This search is best done by people who are curious and hard working. Great investors hustle, have a huge scuttlebutt network and read constantly. They are constantly trying to learn more about more and know that the more that they know, they more they will know that there is even more that they don’t know. If you are not getting more humble over time, you have a flawed system.

 

It is Mr. Market’s irrationality that creates the opportunity for investors. Markets are often wise, but they are not always wise. The best returns accrue to investors who are patient and yet aggressive when they are offered an attractive price for an asset. Seth Klarman says: “Successful investing is the marriage of a calculator and a contrarian streak.” The most effective way to get free of social proof when the time is right is to have done the homework in advance and stay within your circle of competence.

 

5. Jeff Bezos: “Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you’re still going to be wrong nine times out of ten. We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs.” “In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns is why it’s important to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments.”

 

It is magnitude of success and not frequency of success that matters for an investor. Bezos is talking about convexity in investments.  All a founder or venture capitalist can lose is 100% of what they invest in a startup and yet what they can potentially gain is potentially many multiples of that investment.

 

(Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)

  7 people like this.
 
qqq3 The purpose of good fundamental research is to find a share that can give you good multiple year rise.

Other than that....it is just wagging shares....its about caveat emptor and trade at your own risk......and try to benefit from some changing emotions/ sentiments.......
10/02/2019 4:14 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:03 PM | Report Abuse
kc...QL is a multiple bagger.......since you did not / could not benefit from the sustain arise of QL, what can I call you?


There are 900+ stocks listed in Bursa. Why must everyone buy QL? How shallow is the thinking of a 60+ year old "accountant".

No other stocks are multi-baggers? How long have you been in the stock market? If you don't have any multi-bagger, does it mean that there is none?

But seriously, the most important thing for anyone here was not following your sailang and margin in Sendai and Jaks in the last two years.

Those who have not being cheated by you in Jaks and Sendai will most probably doing all right. Like me, I did reasonably okay.
10/02/2019 4:15 PM
qqq3 KC

no QL, never mind...it is just an example.....but....
when was the last time you bought a share that shows some sustained multiple year rise?

or every one of your purchase, sooner or later also collapse just like everyone of OTB purchase?
10/02/2019 4:19 PM
qqq3 Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 04:13 PM | Report Abuse

Honestly, i would give QL value at 3.00! And that's the best price i could come out with!

=======

without Family Mart, it is quite possible that QL is presently traded at $ 3-4 range.....but now, it has all the right image, reputation, story and track record to support at current range....
10/02/2019 4:24 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:19 PM | Report Abuse
KC
no QL, never mind...it is just an example.....but....
when was the last time you bought a share that shows some sustained multiple year rise?

Multi-year rise? You got ah?

But is multi-year rise of a share the most important thing? Let me show you a couple of examples and see if this "accountant"can grasp it or not.

Stock A, from 2013 to now at multi year high,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 2% 102000
2014 102000 5% 107100
2015 107100 6% 113526
2016 113526 3% 116932
2017 116932 7% 125117
2018 125117 1% 126368

Stock B, a little volatility, more than 10% below its high last year,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 35% 135000
2014 135000 25% 168750
2015 168750 -5% 160313
2016 160313 35% 216422
2017 216422 40% 302991
2018 302991 -10% 272692


Can see which is a better investment or not, "äccountant"?
10/02/2019 4:46 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:19 PM | Report Abuse
KC
or every one of your purchase, sooner or later also collapse just like everyone of OTB purchase?

You mean like Jaks and Sendai which you have been shouting sailang and margin the last two years at RM1.80+ and RM1.40+ collapsed within a few months to 50 sen and 60 sen?

No woh.
10/02/2019 4:48 PM
qqq3 u held the shares or not KC? or just theory?


big difference between theory and actually holding a share.....
10/02/2019 4:53 PM
qqq3 S= Qr

no Q, there is no way u can make any meaningful money in stock market ....kc.....


and from all your 6000 postings, I can see u got no Q
10/02/2019 4:57 PM
qqq3 Stock A, from 2013 to now at multi year high,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 2% 102000
2014 102000 5% 107100
2015 107100 6% 113526
2016 113526 3% 116932
2017 116932 7% 125117
2018 125117 1% 126368

Stock B, a little volatility, more than 10% below its high last year,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 35% 135000
2014 135000 25% 168750
2015 168750 -5% 160313
2016 160313 35% 216422
2017 216422 40% 302991
2018 302991 -10% 272692
======


is that similar to OTB i3 competition returns? a figment of his imagination because no remisier ever buys a share on 1 January and holds until 31 Dec.........
10/02/2019 5:05 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I had completed 30 slides in Microsoft Office PowerPoint “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value of INSAS” All are welcome to ask questions during my presentation on the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley, KL.
In year to come I intend to give another presentation how I turned my 700K+ Xingquan total loss into building a portfolio of 10+ million by learning how to invest from all the Sifu in I3.

Thank you
P/S: Posted by Icon888810/02/2019 15:25: SS Lee damn upset now. He toiled for 3 days 3 nights tearing QL apart to try to figure out its moat and intrinsic value, only to find out it is insider info.
I repost below comment: I’m actually very happy to have Mr. Philip in i3 to give a different view on investing.

Dear Mr. Phillip,
Allow me to correct you, this forum is not toxic nor unhelpful, there are so many Sifu in this forum spending their valuable time and give free different opinion/view base on past performance (facts and figures), projected future earnings growth and etc. Many of the i3 community benefited from these diverse views so that many readers can make an informed decision on adding or selling their holding.

My biggest investment mistake was not knowing the existing of this i3 website much early thus committed many of my early mistakes on stock picking. Yes there are always many free advice given some helpful some hurtful but I take it all with open minded and thank them all.

I know that everyone love a success story even better a comeback success story like you and like you I am going to write my success comeback story 5 year from now.

The only one thing I request from you is please double check on your figures/facts as some of those figures/facts you quote on QL were wrong. You have enjoy a successful 9 years ride on QL stock and I hope you too have learned something from different opinions/views offered by Ricky, Jon and many other Sifu on QL near future growth and their reasons. No doubt QL is great company but do not deserve a PE of 50+. I wish you continuous success on your investment.

Remember: Praise and PLPs are cheap as it make one feel great, good and big headed only criticisms allowed us to see our weakness.

Thank you
10/02/2019 6:28 PM
qqq3 ted by Sslee > Feb 10, 2019 06:28 PM | Report Abuse

Remember: Praise and PLPs are cheap
==========


what is that supposed to mean, sslee?
10/02/2019 6:48 PM
qqq3 if sslee knows stock market is more than Insas and Insas like rubbish.....I will be surprised already....
10/02/2019 6:50 PM
qqq3 kc...look at your best student, that sslee....All he knows is rubbish like Insas.....I blame you personally for bringing up such rubbish students.....
10/02/2019 6:54 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Good luck sslee. I hope your investing future goes well. And thanks for the well wishes. I monitor my suck very closely, have been for the last 9+ years. I usually wait until the quarterly report to make my judgements instead of what happens in between, but point taken. I really don't think you know how to invest for the long term, but I supposed everyone has to learn and start from somewhere. I hope one day you will read my article and learn to apply more than just one simple metric like nta and p/e into your investment analysis.

Have a great investment bloggers day! Do us old men proud!
10/02/2019 7:02 PM
qqq3 sslee....U are a novice...U know it, I know it, we both know it....Why do u behave like you are an old hand in the stock market game?

That is a very dangerous thing to do.....
10/02/2019 7:05 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 06:54 PM | Report Abuse
kc...look at your best student, that sslee....All he knows is rubbish like Insas.....I blame you personally for bringing up such rubbish students.....


Insas is one of the most undervalued stocks in Bursa. SSLee has analysed it with facts and figures which I fully agreed. I believe it is a matter of time its value will be unlocked.

His investment skill is thousand miles ahead of you.

Don't just quack quack quack here and quack quack quack there. Do a well written article to articulate why Insas is a rubbish stock. Best compared with your quack quack quack stocks of Jaks and Sendai which you have been shouting sailang and margin for the last two years and nothing else. I will be very happy to discuss with you there.

And SSLee is a very well-mannered, with very good characters and a man filled with humility.

Compared with you, a man with a skin thicker than the skin of crocodile in PLP, propagating sailang and margin in the stock margin to the newbies and the public with zero investment skill, but to buy the stocks of Jaks and Sendai touted by you. You should be ashamed of yourself.

So stop attacking SSLee.

And also stop attacking others like OTB, whom in making money in the stock market, you can't even smell his fart. He never evne respond to any of your attack.
10/02/2019 7:35 PM
qqq3 kc...U are one of those responsible for SSlee and his rubbish stock picks.....That is a wrong lesson for everybody....wrong approach to stock market....and only novice loves such stock ......

so , what are u good for except getting novices to follow u and your Insas?
10/02/2019 8:29 PM
qqq3 kc...u hate blue chips, u specialize in small untested small caps. That is the first impression I get and still true up to today......Your own money, nobody cares.

U talk 3 talk 4 but your money are in rubbish stocks. ....luckily, this forum got people like 3iii and Philips who show, genuine investors in good quality stocks is actually the easiest way to make money.......participating in the growth of good quality companies as the Bursa is intended to be.......

kc...u are teaching the public the wrong approach to the stock market....Bursa do not need people like u........
10/02/2019 8:37 PM
qqq3 kc...u are a pure hypocrite...talk 3 talk 4....talk East Go West....all your sweet words good for getting young girls and novices.....too bad not suitable for making money in stock market....
10/02/2019 8:46 PM
qqq3 kc...what I say about OTB not correct meh? When was the last time he bought any share that does not eventually collapse? Then , what is the use of the write ups and tp and value this value that good for?


whatever is written ( by OTB) are just excuses to trade.....just have to remember that ...Can I say the same thing about what is written by KC? I probably can........
10/02/2019 8:53 PM
paperplane Sslee, how to attend tht. Sounds interesting
10/02/2019 8:55 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 08:29 PM | Report Abuse
kc...U are one of those responsible for SSlee and his rubbish stock picks.....That is a wrong lesson for everybody....wrong approach to stock market....and only novice loves such stock ......
so , what are u good for except getting novices to follow u and your Insas?


The return of stocks of Jaks and Sendai touted by you everyday with sailang and margin, lost 69% and 56% respectively. Many newbies and novice were cheated by you and lost all their savings in these two stocks.

So who was the culprit touting rubbish stocks for the last two years?

What are you good at except PLP and cheating?
10/02/2019 9:00 PM
qqq3 People lost money in Jaks and Sendai is because they are lousy ....none of my business.....Who doesn't know I am a trader.? I never say please pay me a fee.......
10/02/2019 9:04 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 08:37 PM | Report Abuse
U talk 3 talk 4 but your money are in rubbish stocks. ....luckily, this forum got people like 3iii and Philips who show, genuine investors in good quality stocks is actually the easiest way to make money.......participating in the growth of good quality companies as the Bursa is intended to be.......
kc...u are teaching the public the wrong approach to the stock market....Bursa do not need people like u........


I am motivated by others as below, and not you.


Posted by 3iii > Feb 10, 2019 01:50 PM | Report Abuse
Listen to icon, kc and Philip.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 6, 2019 12:27 PM | Report Abuse
*KC you make a good point as usual.
10/02/2019 9:12 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 09:04 PM | Report Abuse
People lost money in Jaks and Sendai is because they are lousy ....none of my business.....Who doesn't know I am a trader.? I never say please pay me a fee.......

You cheated them and shouting to their ears everyday for the last two years to sailang and margin on Jaks and Sendai, and as you have boasted over and over again that you had made huge gain from the two stocks.

Which is better, avoided huge losses in Jaks and Sendai by paying me a fee for advice the last two years, or get it for free from you touting the stocks and lost a fortune being cheated by you?
10/02/2019 9:16 PM
qqq3 S = Q r

If I am novice , I will be extra careful dealing with internet sifus.....

and kc....your own Q is so small ( almost invisible).....the S must be very limited.......
10/02/2019 9:21 PM
Connie555 Hmm, i smell something sarcastic here.....not sure if smell it wrong or what...

Smell too much fine ebony ass cause my nose malfunction...



=============================================================================

Choivo Capital,

Icon8888, all these angmoh theory too academic. Not practical. Only work in foreign markets and not Malaysia. Hahaha.

Thanks. This was really useful. Would appreciate the title of the book or blog you got it from.
10/02/2019 9:21 PM
Connie555 Dear Sslee, everytime i read your comment or article is like my mum is nagging me for not turning off the water tap of the toilet...too long gas...


but one thing i do like about you is that you have 2 fine ass, that is why they call u SSLee (Ass Ass Lee).



==========================================================================
Sslee,

Dear all,
I had completed 30 slides in Microsoft Office PowerPoint “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value of INSAS” All are welcome to ask questions during my presentation on the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley, KL.
In year to come I intend to give another presentation how I turned my 700K+ Xingquan total loss into building a portfolio of 10+ million by learning how to invest from all the Sifu in I3.
10/02/2019 9:23 PM
paperplane Its CNY, argue winning no point, doesnt increase your wisdoms.earn money be happy. No need ask so many questions.
10/02/2019 9:24 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 09:21 PM | Report Abuse
S = Q r
If I am novice , I will be extra careful dealing with internet sifus.....
and kc....your own Q is so small ( almost invisible).....the S must be very limited.......


Everybody, not only novice, even including "super investor" must be wary about cheat who would profit from relentlessly asking you to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai, and at the back he profited hugely from his activities, at your expense, which he out-rightly boasting about.

Especially for one using 3 qs plus a cube. There are so many Qs, or quacks.

And you know what is a quack? It is

an unqualified person who claims accounting knowledge or other skills"
10/02/2019 9:36 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I repost: Jan 20, 2019 10:28 PM |
Dear Flinstones,
Your advice noted with thanks. I derive no pleasure and in fact feel sad that despite my attempt to save his soul and hitting hard at his conscious and even using reverse psychology of subjecting him to shame and turning the table on him by subjecting him to troll or fact on what damage he had done to those chasing high in JAKS and SENDAI as oppose to what he himself trolling KC and OTB with inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic slanders.

I admit my attempt is futile and he will remain as what he is with no remorse and shame. He is now no-more my problems, as from now, I will not read any comments or blogs of “You-Know-Who”. He is in my past and I should leave the past in the past. He is now an invisible to me. I shall grow wise and move on

Thank you.
P/S: I will let my result do the talking in 5 year time. By the way, the fact I was invited as speaker when I only started my first i3blog on Feb 2018 speak volumes of my sincerity and eagerness to share and learn from all i3 Sifu. As for quack, quack, quack he only good at PLP and still taking every opportunity in flattering and PLP Mr. Philip and 3iii as genuine investors in good quality stocks and KYY with S=Qr excellent Q when in-fact KYY make his biggest mistake in JAKS all because of trap set up by------. How can one be so thick skin and without shame when he admitted he is only a chicken trader, trading on those rubbish stocks and occasionally hoping to get some crumb from his master. I rest my case.

Posted by paperplane > Feb 10, 2019 08:55 PM | Report Abuse
Sslee, how to attend tht. Sounds interesting

Dear paperplane,
I think the event is open to public.
I received the below invitation email:

I'm excited to share with you that I3investor and ShareInvestor Malaysia are jointly organizing an Investment Bloggers' Day 2019 Conference. It will be held on Saturday, 2nd March 2019, from 10am to 5pm at Boulevard Hotel, Mid Valley Kuala Lumpur. We would like to invite you to be a speaker during the event. We will be allocating speaking slot with tentative duration of 45 minutes for your session on that day.

I replied that I accept the invitation by I do not think I need the 45 minute. Later I received this email:
I am Lew Cheong Teck, local partner of i3investor in this region.
Thanks for accepting the invitation. We have allocated 25 mins slot for you.
Once the time slot has been confirmed, we will let you know.

Thank you
10/02/2019 9:49 PM
speakup still think PH is great? read this: https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/02/10/asias-top-tower-runner-sour-after-putrajayas-lack-of-recognition/
PH bloody farking racist! A champion is sidelined because of his race! WTF!!!!
10/02/2019 9:58 PM
qqq3 KC...stock market got more than Jaks and Sendai...and Insas......open your eyes.....


like that already want to be subscription seller.....
10/02/2019 10:10 PM
qqq3 sslee...good luck to your flock of novices in Insas.....but I don't think luck alone is enough.....
10/02/2019 10:12 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 10:10 PM | Report Abuse
KC...stock market got more than Jaks and Sendai...and Insas......open your eyes.....
like that already want to be subscription seller.....


I hope you can answer my question below and not keeping on quack quack quack.

Which is better, avoided huge losses in Jaks and Sendai by treating me for a roti canai and teh tarik for 6 months for advice the last two years, or get it for free from you touting the stocks and lost a fortune being cheated by you?
10/02/2019 10:19 PM
rchi After all the quarrelling n arguments ,at the end of the day,who makes the most money win.This after all is an investment forum.Dun hold grudges,learn even from your detractor if he has something worth learning.Wish you all a happy cny.
10/02/2019 10:26 PM
qqq3 kc...wrong.....the better choice is to be like Philips.....for my 20+ son, for novices, stock market should be treated as a place to take part in the growth of good quality companies....

only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....


learn to say NO, including learn to say NO to internet sifus.....

for trading and speculations.....leave this to the full time traders, the professional traders and the retired people.......

getting novices involved, like getting this SSlee involved...how long before all his money disappears?
10/02/2019 10:26 PM
cheoky Qqq3 should disappear in i3 for good. But cant i guess. There is no life beyond i3 for him.
10/02/2019 10:32 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

Qqq3 should disappear in i3 for good. But cant i guess. There is no life beyond i3 for him.
======

maybe all your money disappears sooner than I disappear.....
10/02/2019 10:34 PM
birkincollector learn ur TA.....surely can find 20-30 plus shares that u can buy....earning money on a daily basis is not difficult lor.....dont fall in love with particular shares then keep praying it will go up forever or go every where promote like mad.......
10/02/2019 10:35 PM
cheoky Cny your son never come back home ar? I accompany my parents breakfast. They got no time to press their phone le. You want me buy u a breakfast? Gong xi fatt cai ya
10/02/2019 10:39 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:39 PM | Report Abuse

Cny your son never come back home ar? I accompany my parents breakfast. They got no time to press their phone le. You want me buy u a breakfast? Gong xi fatt cai ya
=======

my son still stays with me...26 years old already ,
10/02/2019 10:44 PM
cheoky Before you criticise other like a bulldog, why not motivate your 26 years old son go on his own? Still stay will you, wings cant grow la. Cant be as dynamic as you le. Or he is 16?
10/02/2019 10:51 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

criticise other like a bulldog,
=====

good......all true some more.
10/02/2019 10:58 PM
stockraider Better not loh...!!

qqq knew he will be imparting stupid knowledge to his children mah..!!

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

criticise other like a bulldog,
=====

good......all true some more.
11/02/2019 10:08 AM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.
11/02/2019 11:46 AM
Icon8888 Fabien and I are almost like twins

there is very little to disagree when come to investing

we are from the same universe
11/02/2019 11:48 AM
stockraider Correct mah....!!

People like 3iii and Philip are like pondan wants everything to win loh...!!

As a result u become pondan...not daring enough & lost many opportunity mah..!!

By right big overall gain is the answer mah...!!

Just like football if your score is 5-2 is it not better than 2-0 leh ?

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Feb 11, 2019 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.
11/02/2019 11:55 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>
Feb 10, 2019 01:50 PM | Report Abuse

Listen to icon, kc and Philip.

As for others, for the moment, with a lot of caution.
>>>>



Listen to icon, kc, Philip and Lizi.

As for others, for the moment, with a lot of caution.
16/02/2019 7:09 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In wah I didn't know unker Icon got so many good articles one leh!
07/04/2019 4:13 PM

(Icon) Success Transformer - Meets My Buy Criteria

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 1 Feb 2019, 1:32 PM


 

Success is principally involved in manufacturing of transformers and lighting fixtures. It is a decent company with reasonable profit track record.

 

 

I bumped into it recently while scanning for undervalued stocks. 

 

The reasons for buying :-

 

(a) the stock is currently trading at multi-year low;

 

(b) reported EPS of 2.37 sen in September 2018 quarter. Based on annualised EPS of 9.5 sen and 55 sen market price, prospective PER is 5.8 times;

 

(c) copper price has declined by 15% since mid 2018. Success uses copper for its transformers;

 

  

 

(d) Strong balance sheets. Based on shareholders' funds of RM315 mil, borrowings of RM56 mil, cash and equivalent of RM50 mil, net borrowing and net gearing is RM6 mil and 2% respectively only.

 

(e) Positive guidance by management recently. Please refer to article below. 

 

 

Take a look. Don't worry, I won't pump and dump you.

 

Have a prosperous Chinese New Year !!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labels: SUCCESS
  2 people like this.
 
Connie555 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Don't don't don't simply dump things like ah jon dump his lego around the house, aunty Connie step on it also buay tahan the pain, later u dump me stock summore i buay tahan the mentally pain of my money gone.....

Aunty Connie wish u huat huat.



======================================================================

Take a look. Don't worry, I won't pump and dump you.
01/02/2019 2:02 PM
Choivo Capital aunty where is my seaweed keropok!

Go back kitchen make, dont come market and lose your retirement money!

I'll pay RM20 for one tin!
01/02/2019 2:08 PM
qqq3 buying a share at multiple year low with hope in business recovery is a perfect contrarian stock.........

more potential rewards and makes better sense than the Insas players.........or Puncak players.....


me? The trader in me cannot find a reason to buy....the newly discovered "only the best" in me cannot invest....so its a non starter for me.....I don't have such a huge capital.


I want to focus.
01/02/2019 2:09 PM
Choivo Capital If the earnings come back should be ok gua. Business looks moatless, but it looks cheap enough, but im not sure its that great of an investment versus others cos now.

2.5% or less ok lah.
01/02/2019 2:13 PM
qqq3 a lot of multiple year low stocks....no wonder Icon has become a contrarian.....

good hunting ground.

each one 1% can buy 100 of these.
01/02/2019 2:17 PM
soojinhou I like their lighting business. You can say they are the equivalent of IQGROUP for infrastructure projects. However, earnings are quite volatile.
01/02/2019 2:19 PM
Choivo Capital soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?
01/02/2019 2:45 PM
probability have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...

...........................................

what is most important - constant adaptations to market expectations...flexibility...

this could be the 'hidden moat'....
01/02/2019 3:09 PM
ramada (b) reported EPS of 2.37 sen in September 2018 quarter. Based on annualised EPS of 9.5 sen and 55 sen market price, prospective PER is 5.8 times.

If based on previous annualised EPS of negative -2.76 sen, this counter worth -2.76 sen x 4 x 10PE= -1.10? You cannot just simply using latest EPS then multiply with 4, right?
01/02/2019 3:09 PM
ramada This is called SCAM. Not PROMOTING.
01/02/2019 3:10 PM
Icon8888 Yes you can count like that also. Then the conclusion is don’t buy loh

I am not trying to convince you to buy
01/02/2019 3:11 PM
qqq3 Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...

...........................................

what is most important - constant adaptations to market expectations...flexibility...

this could be the 'hidden moat'....
======================================


this post I can 100% agree.......
01/02/2019 3:12 PM
moneykj Thanks for remind me back this forgotten counter. Current commodity price environment-yes. Price at multiyears low-yes. Technical wise-mixed. I think the best time to buy is after coming q. From technical point of view, I prefer Fitters' chart.
01/02/2019 3:32 PM
moneykj Remember, you have 1 more strong q to compare to, 2017 4th q.
01/02/2019 3:37 PM
Choivo Capital Brother probability,

Moat does not mean you wont die during a disruption, but harder to die, and may even thrive.

Lets say now, very simple. Retail apocalypse. Because of Amazon and online retailing, all the shopping malls and retail companies in the US dying.

SEARS from 40 dollar a share to 20 cents, now almost bankrupt.

Parkson from RM8.81 to RM0.22.

UK, Nordstrom etc all dying.

Whatever moat these companies had, was great no doubt, but it wasn't a true moat. In the end, get murder by a structural change initiated by the emergence of Amazon.

But then, not all retail companies die.

COSTCO, a wholesale grocery business, this year, profit and revenue up 4%. And it has growing like that for the last 20 years.

Share price for USD50 in 2008 to USD215 today.

Why?

Because COSTCO is a true wonderful business with a moat. Let me explain to you this co.

What is a wonderful business? How does a moat sustain for decades?

First, it needs to be the standard good business in great industries, that has a certain structural edge etc..

But the key thing for a moat is, it needs to be WONDERFUL for society. You need to tie your profitability to benefit towards society to such an extent that, the more money you make, the better off it is for society.

COSTCO is a wholesaler, can buy your nestle, coca cola, groceries there, just need to buy higher volume.

Last year, they made USD3 billion or so. Except, this consist wholly of their USD50 yearly membership card. They make ZERO, KOSONG, NOTHING from selling groceries.

Here is what they are telling their customers. Every year, we will only make USD50 dollars in profit from you, regardless of how much you buy. You spend 10 million with us? We only make 50 dollar. You spend USD20k? We make USD50 from you only.

And this company has one of the lowest cost base in the industry, and is completely focused on cutting cost.

They got no name tag. Just sticker with your name. Uniform? Bring yourself, black shirt, slacks and shoes.

When coca cola try to increase selling price by 5 cents per bottle, they completely refuse to stock coca cola, telling their customers, they feel coca cola does not provide enough value for them to sell it to their customers.

Coca cola buckled and didnt increase the price.

If this company next year makes US10 billion instead of USD3 billion. One can argue that they have tripled the benefit they contributed to american society.

That is a moat.

Look through that lens when finding companies to buy in malaysia. Got one or two such companies in bursa. :)


======
Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...
01/02/2019 3:50 PM
probability cold eye still the shareholder?
01/02/2019 3:55 PM
Choivo Capital sorry they increased card prices. They increase card prices every 5 or si years.

Got 2 tier, USD60 for standard. USD120 for companies. Renewal rates is higher than 90% per annum.
01/02/2019 3:57 PM
qqq3 bear market victim.....this is one of many such bear market victims......Its wrong to think it is rare or exceptional.

2018 small cap bear market hits all of them , without exception. Smart are those who avoided huge losses in the down period......
01/02/2019 4:02 PM
qqq3 the real lesson....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/187899.jsp
01/02/2019 4:05 PM
soojinhou soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?

Their lighting is supposed to be smart, and therefore energy saving. For example, the light brightens when a car approaches and then communicate the information to the next light. It is IOT based and smart, and so it's controllable via computer. IQGROUP's Lumiqs is also based on similar concept but they are targeting industrial customers, such as those used in warehouses, rather than infrastructure like Success. As for a moat? Well, given enough money and motivation, most engineering can come out with similar solutions. But given Success is the incumbent and has established a portfolio of projects, they are harder to unseat by competitors. In the end, it's ultimately cost vs benefit. Are councils or property owners willing to pay more for smarter lighting, or just go for cheap dumb lights?
02/02/2019 9:25 AM
Icon8888 Moat is overrated
02/02/2019 9:39 AM
Connie555 Lego belum siap pasang now u want seaweed keropok???

swear to god not gonna go back to the kitchen where i pocketed my first million......

anyway wish all of u here (included my son John England) a prosperous CNY, more huat than pig head.



=============================================================

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 1, 2019 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

aunty where is my seaweed keropok!

Go back kitchen make, dont come market and lose your retirement money!

I'll pay RM20 for one tin!
02/02/2019 10:44 AM
i3lurker when revenue keeps dropping share price will definitely be at multi-year low.

its normal

if nothing changes 2019 revenue will drop more
03/02/2019 11:20 AM
value88 I also look for undervalued company to buy, thus I looked into Success' latest quarterly and annual report to find out more after reading Icon's article above.
My findings are :
- The core EPS in FY2018 (ended Jun'18) was 5.3sen. At 53.5sen per share now, Success is selling at PE = 10.1x which is not cheap nor high.
- However, if i use this Q1FY19's reported EPS of 2.37sen to annualise, i get 9.48sen/year. This translates to PE = 5.6x which is attractive.
- But, i noticed that Success's quarterly earnings is inconsistent, this means we may see much lower or higher EPS in subsequent Qs...As such, predicting next Qs' EPS using Q1FY19's reported EPS is not reliable.
03/02/2019 3:31 PM
value88 The main concern for Success is its Process Engineering segment which suffered losses in FY18, and management anticipates still challenging prospect for this segment in FY2019.
In addition, Success exports >50% of its product to overseas, and therefore, favours weak RM but RM is strengthening against USD now.
03/02/2019 3:32 PM
value88 Based on the above findings, i think i will leave Success for now and put it in KIV list.
03/02/2019 3:34 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) To be honest, I have bought the qps automatic voltage stabilizer ( different from capbank) from success, especially for easy Malaysia projects where the voltage sometimes fruits from 240v to 200v and 415v do to 360. It helps out alot.

However, ever since my purchasing team found alibaba, we have been taking our sales of Nikkon street lights and avs systems for refineries directly from China. Especially as these items do not require sirim or have government control requirements.

Their prices especially are more expensive than China, and unable to compete in terms of low cost assembly efficiency, and bulk raw materials costs.

For me business competitive advantage is everything. I don't see success transformer to be able to grow their products exports significantly.

The is no major tax break from mida for parents products like vitrox.
The products sold is very standardised in market and commodities.
Lighting industries are very sad. Just ask iq-group what happened to their business.

Moat is basically a word to describe why you would buy the products the company produces.

Is it the cheapest in the market? No. QTC Thailand is far cheaper. We buy from them.
Is it the best in the market? No. Megaman is. Or osram, even Phillips.
Is there a local requirement that requires qps product? No. Sirim unneeded. Many hospitals use China brand. In fact Nikkon lighting Mahal.
Is there management excellent? I leave it up to you to decide.
Is the management shareholder aligned? This at least his my criteria.
Has the revenues grown in last five years? Nope.
Has the profits grown in last five years? Nope.
Is it undervalued? Yes, dearly.
Will it do well in the future? The business has hit terminal growth. What you are getting is simply minimal growth yearly.
Is it a good buy? I guess.

>>>>>>
Moat is overrated
03/02/2019 4:06 PM
qqq3 philip...if analysts put on your thinking cap....analysts and sifus no more job already.....

the job of analysts and sifus is to convince u to take money from your pocket and put into their pocket , its also called commissions.

and ideas is the SOP and the KPI, not the customers well being....that is well known enough.


my analysts son KPI is the number of reports he churns out, not the accuracy of his reports........
03/02/2019 5:48 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Yeah if you tell everyone 99% of the time stocks in bursa is rubbish, I think your son won't be able to keep his job for long. Sad but true.
03/02/2019 6:20 PM
qqq3 (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 3, 2019 06:20 PM | Report Abuse

Yeah if you tell everyone 99% of the time stocks in bursa is rubbish, I think your son won't be able to keep his job for long. Sad but true.
==========

hahahaha...sifus also at risk....
03/02/2019 6:28 PM
cheoky Phillips overtook qqq3 in i3 rank. With substance. Qqq3 as usual without substance can retired for good
03/02/2019 6:50 PM
Apabagus icon looks like you have lost your touch after coming in at the bottom of 2018 i3 stock competition...you want play undervalued cos go ask calvintaneng.
just focus on your area of competence...finding growth stocks.
i like to see how you perform against s=qr....hahaha
03/02/2019 6:53 PM
Apabagus By the way what is the meaning of (s=qr)?
03/02/2019 6:55 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) That one actually is introduced to me by qqq3.

It is the mathematical formula for success.

Success = q( your ability to execute )*r( the value of your idea)
Basically in stocks, how well you do depends on your ability to have a great idea, then how will you execute on your idea.

So if you had a great idea to invest in hartalega in 2009, but you only bought 10 lots, you don't get to be successful.

But if like kyy had a mediocre idea in liihen, but he sailang, he still success.

Imagine if he sailang all the way in Amazon 2009, he would have been a monster!
03/02/2019 7:37 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 2, 2019 09:39 AM | Report Abuse

Moat is overrated
>>>


Ask Nestle!
03/02/2019 7:55 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ So far, I have come across 3 people in this forum who have been honest with their postings with good intention for the good of all:

1. Mr 1015
2. Icon
3. KC

Another remains unnamed but not difficult to guess on.
03/02/2019 8:01 PM
Apabagus s=qr with 403 posts made 10 times more impact to i3 than 3iii with 4930 posts.
03/02/2019 8:10 PM
qqq3 s= Q r....... that I did not copy from Philips.... u can check whose thread appears first.
03/02/2019 8:11 PM
qqq3 quote here quote there that is the easiest part
03/02/2019 8:25 PM
qqq3 execute that is the difficult part
03/02/2019 8:26 PM
qqq3 there is a quote for every situation
03/02/2019 8:26 PM
Icon8888 I am extremely grateful of 3iii's comment below. Finally somebody gives me due recognition instead of baseless accusation of pump and dump

==============

3iii So far, I have come across 3 people in this forum who have been honest with their postings with good intention for the good of all:

1. Mr 1015
2. Icon
3. KC

Another remains unnamed but not difficult to guess on.
03/02/2019 20:01
04/02/2019 11:25 AM
Choivo Capital Sounds easily replicated to me tbh.

Probably undervalued, can consider 1-1.5% of portfolio i guess. But with market this good, they are so many wonderful companies at similar valuations.

Making it harder to swallow.


====
Posted by soojinhou > Feb 2, 2019 09:25 AM | Report Abuse

soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?

Their lighting is supposed to be smart, and therefore energy saving. For example, the light brightens when a car approaches and then communicate the information to the next light. It is IOT based and smart, and so it's controllable via computer. IQGROUP's Lumiqs is also based on similar concept but they are targeting industrial customers, such as those used in warehouses, rather than infrastructure like Success. As for a moat? Well, given enough money and motivation, most engineering can come out with similar solutions. But given Success is the incumbent and has established a portfolio of projects, they are harder to unseat by competitors. In the end, it's ultimately cost vs benefit. Are councils or property owners willing to pay more for smarter lighting, or just go for cheap dumb lights?
04/02/2019 11:29 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) And then it reverts back to mean, going back from 0.50 cents to 0.7 cents, for a 20 cents gain. Pretty much a good buy I guess.

I just ordered another 2 sets of qps voltage stabilizers for factories to combat unstable voltage in tawau.

Congrats icon. 20 cents gain is impressive. Hopefully it can fully uptrend been to its original price of rm1 few years ago.

I wonder how many of choivo stocks returned 30% recently?
02/03/2019 10:11 PM
qqq3 ,S = =Q r is the best summary in the world..... keep in mind..... best don't need to be most complicated
02/03/2019 10:53 PM


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