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Author: Icon8888   |   Latest post: Fri, 5 Apr 2019, 12:40 PM

 

(Icon) Jaks Resources (9) - Potential Reason Behind Jaks-WB's High Conversion Premium

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 5 Apr 2019, 12:40 PM


Currently, Jaks is trading at RM0.84 while Jaks-WB is trading at RM0.62. As Jaks-WB's exercise price is RM0.64, conversion premium will be as follows :

 

Conversion premium = RM(0.62 + 0.64) / RM0.84 = RM1.26 / RM0.84 = 50%

 

The conversion premium in absolute term is RM0.42, being RM1.26 less RM0.84. Is this excessive ? To answer that question, we need to look at percentage.

 

In percentage term, as shown above, the conversion premium is 50%. This is significantly higher than the 25% to 30% we usually see in the market for Warrants. Are holders of Jaks-WB foolish by not taking profit now ?

 

No, they are not. Because things will look very different if Jaks price continues to go up. 

 

For illustration purpose, let's say if Jaks price goes up by RM1.16 from the current RM0.84 to RM2.00 and Jaks-WB moves up in lock step. Jaks-WB will reach RM1.78 (being RM0.62 now + RM1.16), the conversion premium will be as follows :-

 

Conversion premium = RM(1.78 + 0.64) / RM2.00 = RM2.42 / RM2.00 = 21%

 

Can you see how the conversion premium drops as Jaks mother shares go higher ?

 

Lets' say if mother shares go up another RM2.00 to RM4.00, what will happen ?

 

Based on the same assumption that Jaks-WB goes up in lock step, it will reach RM3.78 (from RM1.78).

 

Conversion premium = RM(3.78 + 0.64) / RM4.00 = RM4.42 / RM4.00 = 10%

 

Can you see how the conversion premium has dropped to very minimal level, significantly below the market norm of 25% to 30% ?

 

The figures used above for illustration purpose were based on bold assumption that Jaks can one day touch RM4.00. Can Jaks ever reach there ? Lets' compare with MFCB. Based on 260 MW, MFCB's hydropower project is expected to generate RM200 mil net profit (according to analysts). By extrapolation based on Jaks' effective capacity of 360 MW (being 30% stake), the Vietnam IPP can potentially generate RM276 mil. Lets' say interest expenses maintains at RM28 mil, and mall losses RM12 mil (being 50% of RM24 mil losses), net profit = RM276 mil less RM28 mil less RM12 mil = RM236 mil.

 

Based on 580 mil shares, EPS = 40 sen.

 

Based on 10 times PER, target price of RM4.00 within two to three years time is not unachievable. 

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

The conversion premium of Jaks-WB looked very high based on current market price of mother shares. However, in the event that Jaks really one day goes up to RM4.00, the conversion premium will drop to very conservative level. (The same applies to RM3.00, RM2.00, RM1.50 etc, but to varying degree).

 

As such, the promoters (insiders) are not foolish. By allowing Jaks-WB to trade at such hefty premium (without selling down to take profit), they are hinting that there is still plenty of upside for mother shares (and hence Jaks-WB).

 

In this regard, sit tight, don't even move a muscle. Just dumb dumb hold. Jaks-WB could be your ticket to escape from poverty.

 

Have a nice day. 

Labels: JAKS, JAKS-WB
  4 people like this.
 
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 7:29 AM | Report Abuse

Doesn't matter

I don't trust KB, so I don't make their money

Let others make it

I am at peace with myself

No regret

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 7:30 AM | Report Abuse

In stock market , certain money is not for me to make

Day one I started with bursa many many years ago, I already aware of that
07/04/2019 8:27 AM
CharlesT Walau a...what happened to Icon8888 in 3 months time?

Someone hacked his ac?
07/04/2019 8:28 AM
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 6, 2019 9:15 AM | Report Abuse

There are a few persons in i3 I know can never reason with

So I never argue with them

qqq3, CharlesT, ah Seng the distorted mind

So, see you



Fm his Sifu in Jan now becomes the distorted mind in Apr...

Scary
07/04/2019 8:31 AM
CharlesT Could it be Alien killed Icon8888 b get his ID during his vacation in Tasmania?
07/04/2019 8:32 AM
CharlesT I die die dont believe my friend Icon8888 is such an axxhole kacang lupakan kulit after his JAKS went up from 0.40+ to 0.80+ and forgot all those who helped him in the past....

It must be ALIEN's work........
07/04/2019 8:37 AM
CharlesT It must be......
07/04/2019 8:39 AM
CharlesT Icon8888 is not that kind of person...

Till now i am still grateful to his tips of Johotin-wa which save my ass few years ago
07/04/2019 8:41 AM
Icon8888 Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
07/04/2019 8:45 AM
CharlesT I must say i m quite proud of it....
07/04/2019 8:51 AM
CharlesT Very consistent mah
07/04/2019 8:51 AM
CharlesT This is not so consistent loh, after JAKS up from 0.40+ to 0.80+

6 sense becomes 67 sense

Sifu becomes distorted mind

I love Koon becomes I dont make this kind of money
07/04/2019 9:11 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
===========

no regrets. No reason to regret my postings. I have done my best.
07/04/2019 9:51 AM
Icon8888 There is nothing inconsistent.

What happened is I made a bit of money punting curry mee so I thank Uncle Koon and said I love him

But is it not big amount. Enough for KFC only. So it is also true when I said KB money not for me to make. This is especially true during this round Dayang. I stayed out of it

The above are the truth . I don't need to cook up all these explanations to BS you


CharlesT
7410 posts
Posted by CharlesT > Apr 7, 2019 9:11 AM | Report Abuse

I love Koon becomes I dont make this kind of money
07/04/2019 10:03 AM
qqq3 And if I say I have made enough in Dayang to close shop for 2019?
07/04/2019 10:12 AM
Icon8888 Good on you ! There is nothing wrong making it from KB

It is just not my cup of tea
07/04/2019 10:16 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.

Nothing new to learn here. Moving on.

>>>>>

16591 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?
07/04/2019 10:20 AM
probability Icon dont need to use KB ma...he can create it if he wants....he he

by the way - please dont Icon.. we need diversity of choices
07/04/2019 10:22 AM
CharlesT KB is easy extra money why not?

But of course we all hv our own ways to make money
07/04/2019 10:27 AM
probability good to have 'hard money' options..easy money comes n goes easily
07/04/2019 10:29 AM
qqq3 Posted by CharlesT > Apr 7, 2019 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

KB is easy extra money why not?
==========

how much depends on how many was bought and sold at what price.....its experience and decisions.

and I am not talking about loose change and extra pocket money., I am talking about meaningful money., serious money.
07/04/2019 10:41 AM
Sslee Dear all,
As I mention before never mess up with CharlesT, unless you are Mr. Philip able to show your sausages.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/192330.jsp

“CharlesT is well knows as mighty and all knowing (brain with muscles). A walking human lie- detector with sharp observation and photographic memory. No one can escape his scrutiny as he can see straight/right through your mind of your pretending, falsehood or noble intention”

Thank you
07/04/2019 10:54 AM
probability ha ha...dont play play with charlest...
07/04/2019 10:56 AM
Nikmon Haha, so many sour grape but still the price getting higher higher...more dispute more entertainment, more transparent. Benefit all the investor.
07/04/2019 11:20 AM
Icon8888 I deleted because I don't want to boast mah. Not because I wanted to hide. Was for your consumption only.

Sigh why people so cynical always think on the negative side


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.
07/04/2019 11:23 AM
Icon8888 This sslee very green. Good intention to promote corporate governance. But the AGM questions he asked caused me to shake my head.

Same applies to his interpretation of facts and events when come to investing

But I scolded myself for being nasty to him. Repeatedly tell myself to be patient


Posted by Sslee > Apr 7, 2019 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
As I mention before never mess up with CharlesT, unless you are Mr. Philip able to show your sausages.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/192330.jsp

“CharlesT is well knows as mighty and all knowing (brain with muscles). A walking human lie- detector with sharp observation and photographic memory. No one can escape his scrutiny as he can see straight/right through your mind of your pretending, falsehood or noble intention”

Thank you
07/04/2019 11:27 AM
qqq3 Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

This sslee very green. Good intention to promote corporate governance. But the AGM questions he asked caused me to shake my head.

Same applies to his interpretation of facts and events when come to investing
==========================

this ss is green, naive and a novice in stock market.

but that is hardly the worse from the ss guy.
07/04/2019 11:31 AM
Nikmon Hope hope whoever accumulate behind the scene, dont stop..haha
07/04/2019 11:35 AM
qqq3 Mahathir says Knowledge, Integrity and grit is enough to build a family, build a strong country, be a natural leader.

Lets just assume SSlee has all 3. It is still not enough in this case. Some thing is still missing. Mahathir is wrong in this case.

so , what is missing?

I scratch and scratch to try to figure out what is missing. I think I have it. The missing part, in the case of SSlee, is called the brain.
07/04/2019 11:41 AM
qqq3 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/200643.jsp
07/04/2019 11:44 AM
John Lu CharlesT sifu have my full of respect
07/04/2019 11:45 AM
qqq3 by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

I electronic engineer specialise in communication system

My final year thesis was State of The Art Speech Recognition System. My final year project was related to Wavelength Division Multiplexing System
==============


with that resume, u should have founded Vitrox and not let 3 USM graduates beat u to it. Too bad, u went off to become a banker.
07/04/2019 11:50 AM
i3Value CharlesT suddenly back in action. What happened to KB? Bursa no action no fun without them in full force
07/04/2019 11:55 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 11:56 AM | Report Abuse

He lacks the ability to know what he knows what he doesn't know
=============

I can accept that explanation but it leads to the brain too doesn't it?
07/04/2019 11:57 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip ok la let you boast boast a bit, so you can be happy happy. It doesn't make a difference to me. The only thing that matters is how you carry yourself as a human being and how your investment theories work out.

As long as when you post your chun chun buy call, you match up with with your chun chun sell call, then i'll be happy to call you sifu all you want. don't pump and then dump, then I'll keep my comments to myself.

I assume since you say your JAKS is wonderful 10% portfolio investment you will keep it at least until it hits your assumed value of RM3?

Lets see how long that will take.

>>>>>
I electronic engineer specialise in communication system

My final year thesis was State of The Art Speech Recognition System. My final year project was related to Wavelength Division Multiplexing System
07/04/2019 12:22 PM
Icon8888 My attitude is to match your arrogance

Especially "I hope you learn something today"

Otherwise I am very humble

Check out my earlier posts all this while

I treat people nicely

Only assxxxx that walks around like he knows best will receive my special treatment


Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

ok la let you boast boast a bit, so you can be happy happy. It doesn't make a difference to me. The only thing that matters is how you carry yourself as a human being and how your investment theories work out.
07/04/2019 12:32 PM
stockraider U talk big & have big egoistic meh ??

Ask yourself 1st how well your QL is doing against insas and mnrb b4 u try to talk big me 1st loh...!!

Do not try to simply rundown...U r not up to mark yet mah...!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

see, another troll in stockraider. He makes it worse when he copy paste entire past comments to fill up his comments to block out other people. what he doesn't realize is he just talks the same nonsense over and over using similar words. I give him 5 minutes before he pollutes this thread with new (repeated everywhere) comments on his 3 yrs 3 months SAPNRG 70 billion RM3 strategy.
07/04/2019 12:35 PM
VenFx I dont have any personal emotion to anyone here. 
Just the way my bro icon8888 argue or defence very humour. 

Like !
07/04/2019 12:37 PM
VenFx The other Coach i respect is TYyap ...
He has the quality attitudes as a coach.
Which is a must , so that be able to guide his students at the right path and attitude.
Although i just lucky to be able to wacth his live... after plane sifu recomend Tyyap.
07/04/2019 12:40 PM
stockraider But whatever u say we are still well ahead loh...!!

If make monies is like your logic big cap....then everybody just buy maybank loh....!!

I think u r not so stupid to come up with such a senseless arguement but i m wrong loh...!!

Your ego & arrogance affected u loh....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

your mnrb + insas is less than 15% of QL market cap. and you dont even invest in either of them, as your foaming spamming of SAPE everywhere is showing. trolls like to compare 3 months result and say their investing is working. I'm looking at 2+ years remember as per your challenge? give you a chance, as 10 years results nothing much to say la. we know who winning.

But more importantly, notice who doesn't go around spamming their investment thesis on every page? I'm confident in my investments, unlike office boy trolls.
07/04/2019 12:44 PM
Icon8888 This Sabah assxxxx so egoistic everybody quarrels with him
07/04/2019 12:50 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Here is one good lesson, from an old man who is wise enough to admit his mistakes.

don't boast so much on being an ex-investment banker/ex engineer etc.

Hope Icon8888 learn something new today.

>>>>>

Most investors cannot control their emotion. They are egoistic and greedy. When their shareholdings are going up, they would not sell and like to boast to all their friends that that are so clever to have bought them at much lower prices. The biggest problem that most shareholders have is greed and refuse to sell early to take profit. Profit seems like a dirty word. While the price is going higher, they continue to boast.
07/04/2019 12:51 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip stockraider... now you spam other thread as well? really nice job, i give you 3 minutes to start foaming at the mouth your wonderful SAPNRG investment 70 billion in 3 years and 3 months.
07/04/2019 12:52 PM
highcube It is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price.
07/04/2019 12:58 PM
stockraider Is it troll of different opinion leh ??

Dictator like u cannot stand a losing arguement will use troll to try to shut ur opponent up loh..!!

Raider is not impress loh....!!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 7, 2019 1:07 PM | Report Abuse

Troll shut up. Your comment makes zero sense whatsover. another troll who likes to argue for the sake of arguing.

Hey. Im still waiting on your spam on why SAPE is a good investment. Why so slow? need to warm up engine is it?

>>>>>
Agree is relative it does not mean u must be 100% agree mah...!!
07/04/2019 1:14 PM
qqq3 Posted by stockraider > Apr 7, 2019 1:14 PM | Report Abuse

Is it troll of different opinion leh ??
==========

not just about differences of opinion. Its the way u conduct yourself, your repetitions and the way u hog up space wherever u visit.
07/04/2019 1:23 PM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 12:32 PM | Report Abuse


"I hope you learn something today"

=================

I actually prefer this statement to the fake Thank Yous from u know who.


"I hope you learn something today" .....and more young people learn about investing as participating in the growth of excellent companies is a good thing. I am sure the PM and Bursa would approve.
07/04/2019 1:28 PM
qqq3 I don't think Icon has problem with anyone until they start giving negative comments on his stocks.....disturbing his counter and money making.....

as OTB too likes to say, u do yours, I do mine.

Sea water not to disturb well water.....happy happy make money, why so busy body?
07/04/2019 1:38 PM
Icon8888 Unilateral ceasefire from me

Everybody peace
07/04/2019 2:06 PM
Icon8888 No more comments

Just quietly enjoy the bull run

I expect it last into 2020
07/04/2019 2:07 PM
Heavenly PUNTER I tell you all ah, US Treasury Yield Curve inverted liao.. Now it's time to buy into some zero leverage companies lah! Very dangerous times. I a bit scared!
07/04/2019 2:12 PM

(Icon) To Outperform The Market, You Need To Be A Contrarian

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 9 Feb 2019, 5:06 PM


October 28, 2016

 

1. Bill Gurley: “Being ‘right’ doesn’t lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.”

 

Andy Rachleff elaborates on the point made by Gurley: “What most people don’t realize is if you’re right and consensus you don’t make money.” It is a bit strange that most people don’t realize this truth and yet it is common sense: you simply can’t be part of the crowd and at the same time beat the crowd.

 

2. Jeff Bezos: “You just have to remember that contrarians are usually wrong.”

 

This point made by Bezos is the reason why most people follow the crowd. Michael Mauboussin explains this tendency with a simple example:

 

“Being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian is not a good idea. In other words, when the movie theater’s on fire, run out the door, right? Don’t run in the door…. Successful contrarian investing isn’t about going against the grain per se, it’s about exploiting expectations gaps. If this assertion is true, it leads to an obvious question: how do these expectations gaps arise? Or, more basically, how and why are markets inefficient?”

 

Mauboussin explains why some investments get mispriced so badly:

 

“Because if the crowd takes something to an extreme, either on the bullish side or the bearish side, that should show up in your disconnect between fundamentals and expectations. And that is what allows you to make a good investment… Again, the goal is not to be a contrarian just to be a contrarian, but rather to feel comfortable betting against the crowd when the gap between fundamentals and expectations warrants it. This independence is difficult because the widest gap often coincides with the strongest urge to be part of the group. Independence also incorporates the notion of objectivity—an ability to assess the odds without being swayed by outside factors. After all, prices not only inform investors, they also influence investors.”

 

3. Andy Rachleff: “Investment can be explained with a 2×2 matrix. On one axis you can be right or wrong. And on the other axis you can be consensus or non-consensus. Now obviously if you’re wrong you don’t make money. The only way as an investor and as an entrepreneur to make outsized returns is by being right and non-consensus.”

 

It is the existence of a gap between expected value and market price that Mauboussin talked about above which should drive investment decision making. If you have views which reflect the consensus of the crowd you are unlikely to outperform a market since a market by definition reflects the consensus view.  Buffett puts it this way: “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”

 

Charlie Munger is more direct and colorful in his explanation: “For a security to be mispriced, someone else must be a damn fool. It may be bad for world, but not bad for Berkshire.” Sometimes waves of social proof and other dysfunctional heuristics create a significant gap between price and value. This does not happen often in areas within a person’s circle of competence, but it does happen. For some investors, spotting a gap like this happens only once or twice a year and that is just fine with them. In those instances these investors bet big and the rest of the time they do nothing. Some people, like day traders, think they can spot gaps between expected value and market price several times a day and make a profit after fees (this is almost always a triumph of hope over experience).

 

 

4. Howard Marks: “To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.”

 

Being genuinely contrarian means the investor is going to be uncomfortable sometimes. Some people are good at being uncomfortable, and some are not. Peter Lynch said once: “To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do because they have rigid mind-sets.”

 

Successful investing is the search for the mistakes of other people that may create a mispriced asset (Howard Marks). In other words, one person’s mistake about the value of an asset is what can create an opportunity for another investor to outperform the market.

 

This search is best done by people who are curious and hard working. Great investors hustle, have a huge scuttlebutt network and read constantly. They are constantly trying to learn more about more and know that the more that they know, they more they will know that there is even more that they don’t know. If you are not getting more humble over time, you have a flawed system.

 

It is Mr. Market’s irrationality that creates the opportunity for investors. Markets are often wise, but they are not always wise. The best returns accrue to investors who are patient and yet aggressive when they are offered an attractive price for an asset. Seth Klarman says: “Successful investing is the marriage of a calculator and a contrarian streak.” The most effective way to get free of social proof when the time is right is to have done the homework in advance and stay within your circle of competence.

 

5. Jeff Bezos: “Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you’re still going to be wrong nine times out of ten. We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs.” “In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns is why it’s important to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments.”

 

It is magnitude of success and not frequency of success that matters for an investor. Bezos is talking about convexity in investments.  All a founder or venture capitalist can lose is 100% of what they invest in a startup and yet what they can potentially gain is potentially many multiples of that investment.

 

(Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)

  7 people like this.
 
qqq3 The purpose of good fundamental research is to find a share that can give you good multiple year rise.

Other than that....it is just wagging shares....its about caveat emptor and trade at your own risk......and try to benefit from some changing emotions/ sentiments.......
10/02/2019 4:14 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:03 PM | Report Abuse
kc...QL is a multiple bagger.......since you did not / could not benefit from the sustain arise of QL, what can I call you?


There are 900+ stocks listed in Bursa. Why must everyone buy QL? How shallow is the thinking of a 60+ year old "accountant".

No other stocks are multi-baggers? How long have you been in the stock market? If you don't have any multi-bagger, does it mean that there is none?

But seriously, the most important thing for anyone here was not following your sailang and margin in Sendai and Jaks in the last two years.

Those who have not being cheated by you in Jaks and Sendai will most probably doing all right. Like me, I did reasonably okay.
10/02/2019 4:15 PM
qqq3 KC

no QL, never mind...it is just an example.....but....
when was the last time you bought a share that shows some sustained multiple year rise?

or every one of your purchase, sooner or later also collapse just like everyone of OTB purchase?
10/02/2019 4:19 PM
qqq3 Fortune Bull > Feb 10, 2019 04:13 PM | Report Abuse

Honestly, i would give QL value at 3.00! And that's the best price i could come out with!

=======

without Family Mart, it is quite possible that QL is presently traded at $ 3-4 range.....but now, it has all the right image, reputation, story and track record to support at current range....
10/02/2019 4:24 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:19 PM | Report Abuse
KC
no QL, never mind...it is just an example.....but....
when was the last time you bought a share that shows some sustained multiple year rise?

Multi-year rise? You got ah?

But is multi-year rise of a share the most important thing? Let me show you a couple of examples and see if this "accountant"can grasp it or not.

Stock A, from 2013 to now at multi year high,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 2% 102000
2014 102000 5% 107100
2015 107100 6% 113526
2016 113526 3% 116932
2017 116932 7% 125117
2018 125117 1% 126368

Stock B, a little volatility, more than 10% below its high last year,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 35% 135000
2014 135000 25% 168750
2015 168750 -5% 160313
2016 160313 35% 216422
2017 216422 40% 302991
2018 302991 -10% 272692


Can see which is a better investment or not, "äccountant"?
10/02/2019 4:46 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 04:19 PM | Report Abuse
KC
or every one of your purchase, sooner or later also collapse just like everyone of OTB purchase?

You mean like Jaks and Sendai which you have been shouting sailang and margin the last two years at RM1.80+ and RM1.40+ collapsed within a few months to 50 sen and 60 sen?

No woh.
10/02/2019 4:48 PM
qqq3 u held the shares or not KC? or just theory?


big difference between theory and actually holding a share.....
10/02/2019 4:53 PM
qqq3 S= Qr

no Q, there is no way u can make any meaningful money in stock market ....kc.....


and from all your 6000 postings, I can see u got no Q
10/02/2019 4:57 PM
qqq3 Stock A, from 2013 to now at multi year high,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 2% 102000
2014 102000 5% 107100
2015 107100 6% 113526
2016 113526 3% 116932
2017 116932 7% 125117
2018 125117 1% 126368

Stock B, a little volatility, more than 10% below its high last year,

Year Beginning Return End value
2013 100000 35% 135000
2014 135000 25% 168750
2015 168750 -5% 160313
2016 160313 35% 216422
2017 216422 40% 302991
2018 302991 -10% 272692
======


is that similar to OTB i3 competition returns? a figment of his imagination because no remisier ever buys a share on 1 January and holds until 31 Dec.........
10/02/2019 5:05 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I had completed 30 slides in Microsoft Office PowerPoint “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value of INSAS” All are welcome to ask questions during my presentation on the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley, KL.
In year to come I intend to give another presentation how I turned my 700K+ Xingquan total loss into building a portfolio of 10+ million by learning how to invest from all the Sifu in I3.

Thank you
P/S: Posted by Icon888810/02/2019 15:25: SS Lee damn upset now. He toiled for 3 days 3 nights tearing QL apart to try to figure out its moat and intrinsic value, only to find out it is insider info.
I repost below comment: I’m actually very happy to have Mr. Philip in i3 to give a different view on investing.

Dear Mr. Phillip,
Allow me to correct you, this forum is not toxic nor unhelpful, there are so many Sifu in this forum spending their valuable time and give free different opinion/view base on past performance (facts and figures), projected future earnings growth and etc. Many of the i3 community benefited from these diverse views so that many readers can make an informed decision on adding or selling their holding.

My biggest investment mistake was not knowing the existing of this i3 website much early thus committed many of my early mistakes on stock picking. Yes there are always many free advice given some helpful some hurtful but I take it all with open minded and thank them all.

I know that everyone love a success story even better a comeback success story like you and like you I am going to write my success comeback story 5 year from now.

The only one thing I request from you is please double check on your figures/facts as some of those figures/facts you quote on QL were wrong. You have enjoy a successful 9 years ride on QL stock and I hope you too have learned something from different opinions/views offered by Ricky, Jon and many other Sifu on QL near future growth and their reasons. No doubt QL is great company but do not deserve a PE of 50+. I wish you continuous success on your investment.

Remember: Praise and PLPs are cheap as it make one feel great, good and big headed only criticisms allowed us to see our weakness.

Thank you
10/02/2019 6:28 PM
qqq3 ted by Sslee > Feb 10, 2019 06:28 PM | Report Abuse

Remember: Praise and PLPs are cheap
==========


what is that supposed to mean, sslee?
10/02/2019 6:48 PM
qqq3 if sslee knows stock market is more than Insas and Insas like rubbish.....I will be surprised already....
10/02/2019 6:50 PM
qqq3 kc...look at your best student, that sslee....All he knows is rubbish like Insas.....I blame you personally for bringing up such rubbish students.....
10/02/2019 6:54 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Good luck sslee. I hope your investing future goes well. And thanks for the well wishes. I monitor my suck very closely, have been for the last 9+ years. I usually wait until the quarterly report to make my judgements instead of what happens in between, but point taken. I really don't think you know how to invest for the long term, but I supposed everyone has to learn and start from somewhere. I hope one day you will read my article and learn to apply more than just one simple metric like nta and p/e into your investment analysis.

Have a great investment bloggers day! Do us old men proud!
10/02/2019 7:02 PM
qqq3 sslee....U are a novice...U know it, I know it, we both know it....Why do u behave like you are an old hand in the stock market game?

That is a very dangerous thing to do.....
10/02/2019 7:05 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 06:54 PM | Report Abuse
kc...look at your best student, that sslee....All he knows is rubbish like Insas.....I blame you personally for bringing up such rubbish students.....


Insas is one of the most undervalued stocks in Bursa. SSLee has analysed it with facts and figures which I fully agreed. I believe it is a matter of time its value will be unlocked.

His investment skill is thousand miles ahead of you.

Don't just quack quack quack here and quack quack quack there. Do a well written article to articulate why Insas is a rubbish stock. Best compared with your quack quack quack stocks of Jaks and Sendai which you have been shouting sailang and margin for the last two years and nothing else. I will be very happy to discuss with you there.

And SSLee is a very well-mannered, with very good characters and a man filled with humility.

Compared with you, a man with a skin thicker than the skin of crocodile in PLP, propagating sailang and margin in the stock margin to the newbies and the public with zero investment skill, but to buy the stocks of Jaks and Sendai touted by you. You should be ashamed of yourself.

So stop attacking SSLee.

And also stop attacking others like OTB, whom in making money in the stock market, you can't even smell his fart. He never evne respond to any of your attack.
10/02/2019 7:35 PM
qqq3 kc...U are one of those responsible for SSlee and his rubbish stock picks.....That is a wrong lesson for everybody....wrong approach to stock market....and only novice loves such stock ......

so , what are u good for except getting novices to follow u and your Insas?
10/02/2019 8:29 PM
qqq3 kc...u hate blue chips, u specialize in small untested small caps. That is the first impression I get and still true up to today......Your own money, nobody cares.

U talk 3 talk 4 but your money are in rubbish stocks. ....luckily, this forum got people like 3iii and Philips who show, genuine investors in good quality stocks is actually the easiest way to make money.......participating in the growth of good quality companies as the Bursa is intended to be.......

kc...u are teaching the public the wrong approach to the stock market....Bursa do not need people like u........
10/02/2019 8:37 PM
qqq3 kc...u are a pure hypocrite...talk 3 talk 4....talk East Go West....all your sweet words good for getting young girls and novices.....too bad not suitable for making money in stock market....
10/02/2019 8:46 PM
qqq3 kc...what I say about OTB not correct meh? When was the last time he bought any share that does not eventually collapse? Then , what is the use of the write ups and tp and value this value that good for?


whatever is written ( by OTB) are just excuses to trade.....just have to remember that ...Can I say the same thing about what is written by KC? I probably can........
10/02/2019 8:53 PM
paperplane Sslee, how to attend tht. Sounds interesting
10/02/2019 8:55 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 08:29 PM | Report Abuse
kc...U are one of those responsible for SSlee and his rubbish stock picks.....That is a wrong lesson for everybody....wrong approach to stock market....and only novice loves such stock ......
so , what are u good for except getting novices to follow u and your Insas?


The return of stocks of Jaks and Sendai touted by you everyday with sailang and margin, lost 69% and 56% respectively. Many newbies and novice were cheated by you and lost all their savings in these two stocks.

So who was the culprit touting rubbish stocks for the last two years?

What are you good at except PLP and cheating?
10/02/2019 9:00 PM
qqq3 People lost money in Jaks and Sendai is because they are lousy ....none of my business.....Who doesn't know I am a trader.? I never say please pay me a fee.......
10/02/2019 9:04 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 08:37 PM | Report Abuse
U talk 3 talk 4 but your money are in rubbish stocks. ....luckily, this forum got people like 3iii and Philips who show, genuine investors in good quality stocks is actually the easiest way to make money.......participating in the growth of good quality companies as the Bursa is intended to be.......
kc...u are teaching the public the wrong approach to the stock market....Bursa do not need people like u........


I am motivated by others as below, and not you.


Posted by 3iii > Feb 10, 2019 01:50 PM | Report Abuse
Listen to icon, kc and Philip.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 6, 2019 12:27 PM | Report Abuse
*KC you make a good point as usual.
10/02/2019 9:12 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 09:04 PM | Report Abuse
People lost money in Jaks and Sendai is because they are lousy ....none of my business.....Who doesn't know I am a trader.? I never say please pay me a fee.......

You cheated them and shouting to their ears everyday for the last two years to sailang and margin on Jaks and Sendai, and as you have boasted over and over again that you had made huge gain from the two stocks.

Which is better, avoided huge losses in Jaks and Sendai by paying me a fee for advice the last two years, or get it for free from you touting the stocks and lost a fortune being cheated by you?
10/02/2019 9:16 PM
qqq3 S = Q r

If I am novice , I will be extra careful dealing with internet sifus.....

and kc....your own Q is so small ( almost invisible).....the S must be very limited.......
10/02/2019 9:21 PM
Connie555 Hmm, i smell something sarcastic here.....not sure if smell it wrong or what...

Smell too much fine ebony ass cause my nose malfunction...



=============================================================================

Choivo Capital,

Icon8888, all these angmoh theory too academic. Not practical. Only work in foreign markets and not Malaysia. Hahaha.

Thanks. This was really useful. Would appreciate the title of the book or blog you got it from.
10/02/2019 9:21 PM
Connie555 Dear Sslee, everytime i read your comment or article is like my mum is nagging me for not turning off the water tap of the toilet...too long gas...


but one thing i do like about you is that you have 2 fine ass, that is why they call u SSLee (Ass Ass Lee).



==========================================================================
Sslee,

Dear all,
I had completed 30 slides in Microsoft Office PowerPoint “Love triangle (FA-BS-TA). Intrinsic value of INSAS” All are welcome to ask questions during my presentation on the upcoming Investment Bloggers day 2019 conference on 2nd March 2019, Boulevard Hotel Mid Valley, KL.
In year to come I intend to give another presentation how I turned my 700K+ Xingquan total loss into building a portfolio of 10+ million by learning how to invest from all the Sifu in I3.
10/02/2019 9:23 PM
paperplane Its CNY, argue winning no point, doesnt increase your wisdoms.earn money be happy. No need ask so many questions.
10/02/2019 9:24 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 09:21 PM | Report Abuse
S = Q r
If I am novice , I will be extra careful dealing with internet sifus.....
and kc....your own Q is so small ( almost invisible).....the S must be very limited.......


Everybody, not only novice, even including "super investor" must be wary about cheat who would profit from relentlessly asking you to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai, and at the back he profited hugely from his activities, at your expense, which he out-rightly boasting about.

Especially for one using 3 qs plus a cube. There are so many Qs, or quacks.

And you know what is a quack? It is

an unqualified person who claims accounting knowledge or other skills"
10/02/2019 9:36 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I repost: Jan 20, 2019 10:28 PM |
Dear Flinstones,
Your advice noted with thanks. I derive no pleasure and in fact feel sad that despite my attempt to save his soul and hitting hard at his conscious and even using reverse psychology of subjecting him to shame and turning the table on him by subjecting him to troll or fact on what damage he had done to those chasing high in JAKS and SENDAI as oppose to what he himself trolling KC and OTB with inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic slanders.

I admit my attempt is futile and he will remain as what he is with no remorse and shame. He is now no-more my problems, as from now, I will not read any comments or blogs of “You-Know-Who”. He is in my past and I should leave the past in the past. He is now an invisible to me. I shall grow wise and move on

Thank you.
P/S: I will let my result do the talking in 5 year time. By the way, the fact I was invited as speaker when I only started my first i3blog on Feb 2018 speak volumes of my sincerity and eagerness to share and learn from all i3 Sifu. As for quack, quack, quack he only good at PLP and still taking every opportunity in flattering and PLP Mr. Philip and 3iii as genuine investors in good quality stocks and KYY with S=Qr excellent Q when in-fact KYY make his biggest mistake in JAKS all because of trap set up by------. How can one be so thick skin and without shame when he admitted he is only a chicken trader, trading on those rubbish stocks and occasionally hoping to get some crumb from his master. I rest my case.

Posted by paperplane > Feb 10, 2019 08:55 PM | Report Abuse
Sslee, how to attend tht. Sounds interesting

Dear paperplane,
I think the event is open to public.
I received the below invitation email:

I'm excited to share with you that I3investor and ShareInvestor Malaysia are jointly organizing an Investment Bloggers' Day 2019 Conference. It will be held on Saturday, 2nd March 2019, from 10am to 5pm at Boulevard Hotel, Mid Valley Kuala Lumpur. We would like to invite you to be a speaker during the event. We will be allocating speaking slot with tentative duration of 45 minutes for your session on that day.

I replied that I accept the invitation by I do not think I need the 45 minute. Later I received this email:
I am Lew Cheong Teck, local partner of i3investor in this region.
Thanks for accepting the invitation. We have allocated 25 mins slot for you.
Once the time slot has been confirmed, we will let you know.

Thank you
10/02/2019 9:49 PM
speakup still think PH is great? read this: https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/02/10/asias-top-tower-runner-sour-after-putrajayas-lack-of-recognition/
PH bloody farking racist! A champion is sidelined because of his race! WTF!!!!
10/02/2019 9:58 PM
qqq3 KC...stock market got more than Jaks and Sendai...and Insas......open your eyes.....


like that already want to be subscription seller.....
10/02/2019 10:10 PM
qqq3 sslee...good luck to your flock of novices in Insas.....but I don't think luck alone is enough.....
10/02/2019 10:12 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 10:10 PM | Report Abuse
KC...stock market got more than Jaks and Sendai...and Insas......open your eyes.....
like that already want to be subscription seller.....


I hope you can answer my question below and not keeping on quack quack quack.

Which is better, avoided huge losses in Jaks and Sendai by treating me for a roti canai and teh tarik for 6 months for advice the last two years, or get it for free from you touting the stocks and lost a fortune being cheated by you?
10/02/2019 10:19 PM
rchi After all the quarrelling n arguments ,at the end of the day,who makes the most money win.This after all is an investment forum.Dun hold grudges,learn even from your detractor if he has something worth learning.Wish you all a happy cny.
10/02/2019 10:26 PM
qqq3 kc...wrong.....the better choice is to be like Philips.....for my 20+ son, for novices, stock market should be treated as a place to take part in the growth of good quality companies....

only good management stocks
...very low turnover of portfolio
....learn to say NO....


learn to say NO, including learn to say NO to internet sifus.....

for trading and speculations.....leave this to the full time traders, the professional traders and the retired people.......

getting novices involved, like getting this SSlee involved...how long before all his money disappears?
10/02/2019 10:26 PM
cheoky Qqq3 should disappear in i3 for good. But cant i guess. There is no life beyond i3 for him.
10/02/2019 10:32 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

Qqq3 should disappear in i3 for good. But cant i guess. There is no life beyond i3 for him.
======

maybe all your money disappears sooner than I disappear.....
10/02/2019 10:34 PM
birkincollector learn ur TA.....surely can find 20-30 plus shares that u can buy....earning money on a daily basis is not difficult lor.....dont fall in love with particular shares then keep praying it will go up forever or go every where promote like mad.......
10/02/2019 10:35 PM
cheoky Cny your son never come back home ar? I accompany my parents breakfast. They got no time to press their phone le. You want me buy u a breakfast? Gong xi fatt cai ya
10/02/2019 10:39 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:39 PM | Report Abuse

Cny your son never come back home ar? I accompany my parents breakfast. They got no time to press their phone le. You want me buy u a breakfast? Gong xi fatt cai ya
=======

my son still stays with me...26 years old already ,
10/02/2019 10:44 PM
cheoky Before you criticise other like a bulldog, why not motivate your 26 years old son go on his own? Still stay will you, wings cant grow la. Cant be as dynamic as you le. Or he is 16?
10/02/2019 10:51 PM
qqq3 cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

criticise other like a bulldog,
=====

good......all true some more.
10/02/2019 10:58 PM
stockraider Better not loh...!!

qqq knew he will be imparting stupid knowledge to his children mah..!!

Posted by qqq3 > Feb 10, 2019 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

cheoky > Feb 10, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

criticise other like a bulldog,
=====

good......all true some more.
11/02/2019 10:08 AM
Fabien Extraordinaire Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.
11/02/2019 11:46 AM
Icon8888 Fabien and I are almost like twins

there is very little to disagree when come to investing

we are from the same universe
11/02/2019 11:48 AM
stockraider Correct mah....!!

People like 3iii and Philip are like pondan wants everything to win loh...!!

As a result u become pondan...not daring enough & lost many opportunity mah..!!

By right big overall gain is the answer mah...!!

Just like football if your score is 5-2 is it not better than 2-0 leh ?

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Feb 11, 2019 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.
11/02/2019 11:55 AM
3iii >>>>
Feb 10, 2019 01:50 PM | Report Abuse

Listen to icon, kc and Philip.

As for others, for the moment, with a lot of caution.
>>>>



Listen to icon, kc, Philip and Lizi.

As for others, for the moment, with a lot of caution.
16/02/2019 7:09 AM
Heavenly PUNTER wah I didn't know unker Icon got so many good articles one leh!
07/04/2019 4:13 PM

(Icon) Success Transformer - Meets My Buy Criteria

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 1 Feb 2019, 1:32 PM


 

Success is principally involved in manufacturing of transformers and lighting fixtures. It is a decent company with reasonable profit track record.

 

 

I bumped into it recently while scanning for undervalued stocks. 

 

The reasons for buying :-

 

(a) the stock is currently trading at multi-year low;

 

(b) reported EPS of 2.37 sen in September 2018 quarter. Based on annualised EPS of 9.5 sen and 55 sen market price, prospective PER is 5.8 times;

 

(c) copper price has declined by 15% since mid 2018. Success uses copper for its transformers;

 

  

 

(d) Strong balance sheets. Based on shareholders' funds of RM315 mil, borrowings of RM56 mil, cash and equivalent of RM50 mil, net borrowing and net gearing is RM6 mil and 2% respectively only.

 

(e) Positive guidance by management recently. Please refer to article below. 

 

 

Take a look. Don't worry, I won't pump and dump you.

 

Have a prosperous Chinese New Year !!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labels: SUCCESS
  2 people like this.
 
Connie555 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Don't don't don't simply dump things like ah jon dump his lego around the house, aunty Connie step on it also buay tahan the pain, later u dump me stock summore i buay tahan the mentally pain of my money gone.....

Aunty Connie wish u huat huat.



======================================================================

Take a look. Don't worry, I won't pump and dump you.
01/02/2019 2:02 PM
Choivo Capital aunty where is my seaweed keropok!

Go back kitchen make, dont come market and lose your retirement money!

I'll pay RM20 for one tin!
01/02/2019 2:08 PM
qqq3 buying a share at multiple year low with hope in business recovery is a perfect contrarian stock.........

more potential rewards and makes better sense than the Insas players.........or Puncak players.....


me? The trader in me cannot find a reason to buy....the newly discovered "only the best" in me cannot invest....so its a non starter for me.....I don't have such a huge capital.


I want to focus.
01/02/2019 2:09 PM
Choivo Capital If the earnings come back should be ok gua. Business looks moatless, but it looks cheap enough, but im not sure its that great of an investment versus others cos now.

2.5% or less ok lah.
01/02/2019 2:13 PM
qqq3 a lot of multiple year low stocks....no wonder Icon has become a contrarian.....

good hunting ground.

each one 1% can buy 100 of these.
01/02/2019 2:17 PM
soojinhou I like their lighting business. You can say they are the equivalent of IQGROUP for infrastructure projects. However, earnings are quite volatile.
01/02/2019 2:19 PM
Choivo Capital soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?
01/02/2019 2:45 PM
probability have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...

...........................................

what is most important - constant adaptations to market expectations...flexibility...

this could be the 'hidden moat'....
01/02/2019 3:09 PM
ramada (b) reported EPS of 2.37 sen in September 2018 quarter. Based on annualised EPS of 9.5 sen and 55 sen market price, prospective PER is 5.8 times.

If based on previous annualised EPS of negative -2.76 sen, this counter worth -2.76 sen x 4 x 10PE= -1.10? You cannot just simply using latest EPS then multiply with 4, right?
01/02/2019 3:09 PM
ramada This is called SCAM. Not PROMOTING.
01/02/2019 3:10 PM
Icon8888 Yes you can count like that also. Then the conclusion is don’t buy loh

I am not trying to convince you to buy
01/02/2019 3:11 PM
qqq3 Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...

...........................................

what is most important - constant adaptations to market expectations...flexibility...

this could be the 'hidden moat'....
======================================


this post I can 100% agree.......
01/02/2019 3:12 PM
moneykj Thanks for remind me back this forgotten counter. Current commodity price environment-yes. Price at multiyears low-yes. Technical wise-mixed. I think the best time to buy is after coming q. From technical point of view, I prefer Fitters' chart.
01/02/2019 3:32 PM
moneykj Remember, you have 1 more strong q to compare to, 2017 4th q.
01/02/2019 3:37 PM
Choivo Capital Brother probability,

Moat does not mean you wont die during a disruption, but harder to die, and may even thrive.

Lets say now, very simple. Retail apocalypse. Because of Amazon and online retailing, all the shopping malls and retail companies in the US dying.

SEARS from 40 dollar a share to 20 cents, now almost bankrupt.

Parkson from RM8.81 to RM0.22.

UK, Nordstrom etc all dying.

Whatever moat these companies had, was great no doubt, but it wasn't a true moat. In the end, get murder by a structural change initiated by the emergence of Amazon.

But then, not all retail companies die.

COSTCO, a wholesale grocery business, this year, profit and revenue up 4%. And it has growing like that for the last 20 years.

Share price for USD50 in 2008 to USD215 today.

Why?

Because COSTCO is a true wonderful business with a moat. Let me explain to you this co.

What is a wonderful business? How does a moat sustain for decades?

First, it needs to be the standard good business in great industries, that has a certain structural edge etc..

But the key thing for a moat is, it needs to be WONDERFUL for society. You need to tie your profitability to benefit towards society to such an extent that, the more money you make, the better off it is for society.

COSTCO is a wholesaler, can buy your nestle, coca cola, groceries there, just need to buy higher volume.

Last year, they made USD3 billion or so. Except, this consist wholly of their USD50 yearly membership card. They make ZERO, KOSONG, NOTHING from selling groceries.

Here is what they are telling their customers. Every year, we will only make USD50 dollars in profit from you, regardless of how much you buy. You spend 10 million with us? We only make 50 dollar. You spend USD20k? We make USD50 from you only.

And this company has one of the lowest cost base in the industry, and is completely focused on cutting cost.

They got no name tag. Just sticker with your name. Uniform? Bring yourself, black shirt, slacks and shoes.

When coca cola try to increase selling price by 5 cents per bottle, they completely refuse to stock coca cola, telling their customers, they feel coca cola does not provide enough value for them to sell it to their customers.

Coca cola buckled and didnt increase the price.

If this company next year makes US10 billion instead of USD3 billion. One can argue that they have tripled the benefit they contributed to american society.

That is a moat.

Look through that lens when finding companies to buy in malaysia. Got one or two such companies in bursa. :)


======
Posted by probability > Feb 1, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

have a feeling..after all the warren buffet bull shit theories...people are going to realize there is no such thing as moat in the current business world...

every technology, IP and skills (including heavy manufacturing industry)...are going to be easily replicable....and the world has to adopt free & open cross border competition...

this is the struggle between U.S & China currently...
01/02/2019 3:50 PM
probability cold eye still the shareholder?
01/02/2019 3:55 PM
Choivo Capital sorry they increased card prices. They increase card prices every 5 or si years.

Got 2 tier, USD60 for standard. USD120 for companies. Renewal rates is higher than 90% per annum.
01/02/2019 3:57 PM
qqq3 bear market victim.....this is one of many such bear market victims......Its wrong to think it is rare or exceptional.

2018 small cap bear market hits all of them , without exception. Smart are those who avoided huge losses in the down period......
01/02/2019 4:02 PM
qqq3 the real lesson....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/187899.jsp
01/02/2019 4:05 PM
soojinhou soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?

Their lighting is supposed to be smart, and therefore energy saving. For example, the light brightens when a car approaches and then communicate the information to the next light. It is IOT based and smart, and so it's controllable via computer. IQGROUP's Lumiqs is also based on similar concept but they are targeting industrial customers, such as those used in warehouses, rather than infrastructure like Success. As for a moat? Well, given enough money and motivation, most engineering can come out with similar solutions. But given Success is the incumbent and has established a portfolio of projects, they are harder to unseat by competitors. In the end, it's ultimately cost vs benefit. Are councils or property owners willing to pay more for smarter lighting, or just go for cheap dumb lights?
02/02/2019 9:25 AM
Icon8888 Moat is overrated
02/02/2019 9:39 AM
Connie555 Lego belum siap pasang now u want seaweed keropok???

swear to god not gonna go back to the kitchen where i pocketed my first million......

anyway wish all of u here (included my son John England) a prosperous CNY, more huat than pig head.



=============================================================

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 1, 2019 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

aunty where is my seaweed keropok!

Go back kitchen make, dont come market and lose your retirement money!

I'll pay RM20 for one tin!
02/02/2019 10:44 AM
i3lurker when revenue keeps dropping share price will definitely be at multi-year low.

its normal

if nothing changes 2019 revenue will drop more
03/02/2019 11:20 AM
value88 I also look for undervalued company to buy, thus I looked into Success' latest quarterly and annual report to find out more after reading Icon's article above.
My findings are :
- The core EPS in FY2018 (ended Jun'18) was 5.3sen. At 53.5sen per share now, Success is selling at PE = 10.1x which is not cheap nor high.
- However, if i use this Q1FY19's reported EPS of 2.37sen to annualise, i get 9.48sen/year. This translates to PE = 5.6x which is attractive.
- But, i noticed that Success's quarterly earnings is inconsistent, this means we may see much lower or higher EPS in subsequent Qs...As such, predicting next Qs' EPS using Q1FY19's reported EPS is not reliable.
03/02/2019 3:31 PM
value88 The main concern for Success is its Process Engineering segment which suffered losses in FY18, and management anticipates still challenging prospect for this segment in FY2019.
In addition, Success exports >50% of its product to overseas, and therefore, favours weak RM but RM is strengthening against USD now.
03/02/2019 3:32 PM
value88 Based on the above findings, i think i will leave Success for now and put it in KIV list.
03/02/2019 3:34 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip To be honest, I have bought the qps automatic voltage stabilizer ( different from capbank) from success, especially for easy Malaysia projects where the voltage sometimes fruits from 240v to 200v and 415v do to 360. It helps out alot.

However, ever since my purchasing team found alibaba, we have been taking our sales of Nikkon street lights and avs systems for refineries directly from China. Especially as these items do not require sirim or have government control requirements.

Their prices especially are more expensive than China, and unable to compete in terms of low cost assembly efficiency, and bulk raw materials costs.

For me business competitive advantage is everything. I don't see success transformer to be able to grow their products exports significantly.

The is no major tax break from mida for parents products like vitrox.
The products sold is very standardised in market and commodities.
Lighting industries are very sad. Just ask iq-group what happened to their business.

Moat is basically a word to describe why you would buy the products the company produces.

Is it the cheapest in the market? No. QTC Thailand is far cheaper. We buy from them.
Is it the best in the market? No. Megaman is. Or osram, even Phillips.
Is there a local requirement that requires qps product? No. Sirim unneeded. Many hospitals use China brand. In fact Nikkon lighting Mahal.
Is there management excellent? I leave it up to you to decide.
Is the management shareholder aligned? This at least his my criteria.
Has the revenues grown in last five years? Nope.
Has the profits grown in last five years? Nope.
Is it undervalued? Yes, dearly.
Will it do well in the future? The business has hit terminal growth. What you are getting is simply minimal growth yearly.
Is it a good buy? I guess.

>>>>>>
Moat is overrated
03/02/2019 4:06 PM
qqq3 philip...if analysts put on your thinking cap....analysts and sifus no more job already.....

the job of analysts and sifus is to convince u to take money from your pocket and put into their pocket , its also called commissions.

and ideas is the SOP and the KPI, not the customers well being....that is well known enough.


my analysts son KPI is the number of reports he churns out, not the accuracy of his reports........
03/02/2019 5:48 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Yeah if you tell everyone 99% of the time stocks in bursa is rubbish, I think your son won't be able to keep his job for long. Sad but true.
03/02/2019 6:20 PM
qqq3 (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 3, 2019 06:20 PM | Report Abuse

Yeah if you tell everyone 99% of the time stocks in bursa is rubbish, I think your son won't be able to keep his job for long. Sad but true.
==========

hahahaha...sifus also at risk....
03/02/2019 6:28 PM
cheoky Phillips overtook qqq3 in i3 rank. With substance. Qqq3 as usual without substance can retired for good
03/02/2019 6:50 PM
Apabagus icon looks like you have lost your touch after coming in at the bottom of 2018 i3 stock competition...you want play undervalued cos go ask calvintaneng.
just focus on your area of competence...finding growth stocks.
i like to see how you perform against s=qr....hahaha
03/02/2019 6:53 PM
Apabagus By the way what is the meaning of (s=qr)?
03/02/2019 6:55 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip That one actually is introduced to me by qqq3.

It is the mathematical formula for success.

Success = q( your ability to execute )*r( the value of your idea)
Basically in stocks, how well you do depends on your ability to have a great idea, then how will you execute on your idea.

So if you had a great idea to invest in hartalega in 2009, but you only bought 10 lots, you don't get to be successful.

But if like kyy had a mediocre idea in liihen, but he sailang, he still success.

Imagine if he sailang all the way in Amazon 2009, he would have been a monster!
03/02/2019 7:37 PM
3iii >>>
Posted by Icon8888 > Feb 2, 2019 09:39 AM | Report Abuse

Moat is overrated
>>>


Ask Nestle!
03/02/2019 7:55 PM
3iii So far, I have come across 3 people in this forum who have been honest with their postings with good intention for the good of all:

1. Mr 1015
2. Icon
3. KC

Another remains unnamed but not difficult to guess on.
03/02/2019 8:01 PM
Apabagus s=qr with 403 posts made 10 times more impact to i3 than 3iii with 4930 posts.
03/02/2019 8:10 PM
qqq3 s= Q r....... that I did not copy from Philips.... u can check whose thread appears first.
03/02/2019 8:11 PM
qqq3 quote here quote there that is the easiest part
03/02/2019 8:25 PM
qqq3 execute that is the difficult part
03/02/2019 8:26 PM
qqq3 there is a quote for every situation
03/02/2019 8:26 PM
Icon8888 I am extremely grateful of 3iii's comment below. Finally somebody gives me due recognition instead of baseless accusation of pump and dump

==============

3iii So far, I have come across 3 people in this forum who have been honest with their postings with good intention for the good of all:

1. Mr 1015
2. Icon
3. KC

Another remains unnamed but not difficult to guess on.
03/02/2019 20:01
04/02/2019 11:25 AM
Choivo Capital Sounds easily replicated to me tbh.

Probably undervalued, can consider 1-1.5% of portfolio i guess. But with market this good, they are so many wonderful companies at similar valuations.

Making it harder to swallow.


====
Posted by soojinhou > Feb 2, 2019 09:25 AM | Report Abuse

soojinhou,

How does their lighting business compare versus the competitors. Any particular moat, or just another supplier in the industry?

Their lighting is supposed to be smart, and therefore energy saving. For example, the light brightens when a car approaches and then communicate the information to the next light. It is IOT based and smart, and so it's controllable via computer. IQGROUP's Lumiqs is also based on similar concept but they are targeting industrial customers, such as those used in warehouses, rather than infrastructure like Success. As for a moat? Well, given enough money and motivation, most engineering can come out with similar solutions. But given Success is the incumbent and has established a portfolio of projects, they are harder to unseat by competitors. In the end, it's ultimately cost vs benefit. Are councils or property owners willing to pay more for smarter lighting, or just go for cheap dumb lights?
04/02/2019 11:29 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip And then it reverts back to mean, going back from 0.50 cents to 0.7 cents, for a 20 cents gain. Pretty much a good buy I guess.

I just ordered another 2 sets of qps voltage stabilizers for factories to combat unstable voltage in tawau.

Congrats icon. 20 cents gain is impressive. Hopefully it can fully uptrend been to its original price of rm1 few years ago.

I wonder how many of choivo stocks returned 30% recently?
02/03/2019 10:11 PM
qqq3 ,S = =Q r is the best summary in the world..... keep in mind..... best don't need to be most complicated
02/03/2019 10:53 PM

(Icon) LC Titan Price Collapse - Shaken Shareholders and Contrarians Scramble In Different Direction

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 30 Jan 2019, 10:11 PM


1. Shareholders Scrambled For Exit

 

Today, LC Titan reported a profit of RM11 mil, significantly lower than the previous quarters’ RM300 mil plus (per quarter). The poor result was mostly due to margin squeeze, caused by high inventory cost and low selling price due to drop in demand. Many investors panic and rushed for the exit. Share price declined sharply from RM4.60 to as low as RM4.14, a drop of 10%. As a contrarian, I scrambled in the opposite direction, picking up some shares at RM4.15.

 

Why did I do that ?

 

 

2. Contrarianism

 

Contrarianism does not mean that you think the OPPOSITE of others. When a building is on fire and everybody is rushing out, you are not a contrarian if you rush in. It just doesn’t make sense.

 

Contrarianism, means that you think DIFFERENTLY from others. When something happens, the crowd will move in one direction. They are not necessarily wrong, but the state of commotion will sometime give rise to opportunities. If you can stay calm and think rationally, you might be able to exploit the subtleties and nuances and benefit from them.

 

One good example is BIMB. Due to spate of recent bad news related to Tabung Haji and 1MDB (not even directly related to BIMB), the stock has been sold down from RM4.20 to RM3.60 despite reporting sterling set of result. The crowd thinks like this : there must be a lot of skeletons in the closet waiting to be uncovered, better play safe just in case NPL spikes in the future. As a contrarian, I take into consideration the exceptional quality of our own banking regulatory system, led by ex governor Zeti. I chose to believe that BIMB’s asset quality should be quite ok. Afterall its NPLs are only 2% plus. So I added some to my portfolio at RM3.60.

 

It is still early to say that I am right and the crowd is wrong, but BIMB is an example of how contrarian thinks and acts.

 

 

3. Structural vs. Cyclical Factors

 

When companies get into difficulty, the problem they face can be broadly divided into two main types - structural vs. cyclical.

 

Let’s take George Kent as an example. The day after GE 14, George Kent share price dropped from RM4.00 to RM2.50. Are you a contrarian if you rush in to buy at RM2.50 ? No, you are not. You are merely a fool. The crowd is not always wrong. In George Kent’s case, the share price melt down is justified. The problem confounding the company is STRUCTURAL in nature. This kind of problem is very difficult to be rectified. There is almost no more hope. Rushing in when others are getting out is suicidal. 

 

Cyclical issues, on the other hand, are caused by industry related cycles. It could be due to lower selling price, lower demand, or higher operating cost. For the latter, it was mostly due to rising raw material cost or labour cost, etc. Unlike structural issues, cyclical issues tend to go away in a relatively short period of time, from few quarters to two, three years. 

 

In my opinion, share price collapse due to cyclicality is perfect opportunity for contrarians to act. 

 

 

4. Be Selective

 

On 20 January 2019, I wrote an article “What is Investing ?”. In the article, I mentioned the following :

 

Anything bought based on careful evaluation of value and proper reasoning, and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.”

 

Yup, the key word is “held until recovery”. When you buy a stock, especially when you are acting contrarian, always ask yourself this question, “will the stock ever recover within maximum of two to three years ? Does it have the requisite qualities to do that ?” (According to my definition, anything longer than three years means you have made a mistake).

 

To answer the question, you need to take into consideration the following : 

(a) (once again) is the problem structural or cyclical ?

(b) is the balance sheets strong enough to withstand the down cycle ?

(c) is the stock near all time low ?

 

If the answers are yes, then you can consider buying some.

 

But you must be prepared for more pain to come. Famous investor Seth Klarman, who wrote the book “Margin of Safety”, pointed out that “contrarian investors are always wrong initially”. What he means is that after the initial decline, share price is likely to further go south. It will take some time for the stock to stabilise and ultimately recover. You need to have holding power.

 

 

5. Concluding Remarks

 

What is the main message of this article ? Is it about the benefit of acting contrarian ? No. The main message of this article is that if you ignore the negative impact of cyclical factors, a whole new world will open in front of you. This is especially true for raw material cost.

 

Let’s take 3A as an example. In the past two quarters, its profit has dropped due to higher raw material cost (tapioca). Before this, I will react to this adverse development and sell 3A. But now I think differently. I will ignore it and hold on. As a matter of fact, I will monitor tapioca price closely and jump in to buy more when there are signs that tapioca price is heading south (it is already happening). 

 

Why should you behave in such a way ? Because you are an investor - you buy good quality companies, ignore cyclical noises **, hold on to them until they recover, then sell for a profit.

 

( ** Why should you ignore cyclical noises ? Because you have no choice !!! Things happen all the time in the world of business. If everytime a minor hiccup happens to the company and you cut loss, how many times you can do that ? Have you ever heard of death by thousand cuts ?)

 

The benefit of doing so is that you no more need to track latest quarterly result closely. The company's profit can drop, but since you know it can recover, you don’t need to do anything. It is just paper loss. One day you will make money when the upcycle returns. 

 

Once you think and act like that (especially ignoring raw material cost fluctuation), you will suddenly find that many stocks will become investible. Can you imagine the difficulty of predicting the profitability of LC Titan over next few quarters ? There are so many things in flux. Oil price, demand for chemicals, currency fluctuations, competitive forces, etc. These things are so complicated, most retail investors like us will never be able to fully grasp them, let alone predicting them. However, if you ignore those cyclical factors, hold on to the stock with conviction (of course, must be bought at attractive valuation), there is a fairly decent chance that the stars will align one day and the company's profit will rebound. That is when you can cash out.

 

The same applies to many other manufacturing companies such as Petronm, Hengyuan, Johotin, Perstima, 3A, Petchem and poultry companies, etc.

 

(Note : I will be a bit careful if it involves forex factor as currencies once move in a direction, can potentially last for many years. For example : Ringgit's weakening since 2015. For me, major currency changes can potentially be structural. Make sure you are not caught in the wrong cycle).

Labels: LCTITAN
  7 people like this.
 
CharlesT I also dare not ask people to buy Currymee with TP Rm1.20 or TP RM2.00 lah
31/01/2019 9:02 AM
Choivo Capital Great read, Thanks Icon.
31/01/2019 9:20 AM
Connie555 Look who is here!!! here comes the PLP again!!!!

Months back you are saying Icon article is for him to make money off over the optimistic people......

now u at there smelling people ass? what kind of people are u? Do u have credibility?

If u canot stand on your own principle, your so called unethical motive by those who posting article recommend stock and plug in some figure, then condemn icon instead of puking out some geli words like thanks icon, it really looks like you are licking icon ass seriously....

where is your credibility??? condemn people la....where is your lampa??? your father never give you balls???

Sorry icon, early morning kao zai at your discussion page.


__________________________________________

Choivo Capital Great read, Thanks Icon.

===================================

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 14, 2018 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=======================≠============


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
31/01/2019 9:43 AM
BumbleBee Ya agreed
Great article
Something to remember forever
31/01/2019 10:14 AM
RainT can only buy if cyclical if there is low enough to pick

if not why invest and stuck your capital for few years

you can move to uptrend stock ...dont go against the trend also
31/01/2019 10:25 AM
qqq3 quality is boring, long term is boring. even contrarian can be boring.

Over long term, over a life time, 3iii and Philip method works...

icon888 method also works well.....

They have the character for it.

I am pretty sure.
31/01/2019 11:05 AM
qqq3 Tan Teng Boo of Icap....fantastic theoretician, fantastic economist, but over the last 10 years cannot execute......there are people like that also.
31/01/2019 11:07 AM
CharlesT Aiyo yr friend OTB works the best over the last 5 years...got records here one

Not like somebody who simply jump out last Dec to claim he bought QL since 2009
31/01/2019 11:12 AM
qqq3 KYY is into quarter profit X 4 at the moment....maybe , he gets lucky and Carimin every quarter better than last quarter Carimin $ 3, just like his VS used to be.....

S=Qr


KYY has proven he got the Q...now, what he needs is the r from his chosen stock......
31/01/2019 11:12 AM
CharlesT I m not sure whether i shall trust him more or Ah Jon's 500% annual return imaginary friend
31/01/2019 11:13 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Jan 31, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

KYY is into quarter profit X 4 at the moment....maybe , he gets lucky and Carimin every quarter better than last quarter Carimin $ 3, just like his VS used to be.....

S=Qr


KYY has proven he got the Q...now, what he needs is the r from his chosen stock......

I thought u said yesterday that u dont want to promote this currymee?
31/01/2019 11:13 AM
CharlesT Have to do work lah...no free meals in this world

I dont blame u qqq3
31/01/2019 11:14 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Jan 31, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

Tan Teng Boo of Icap....fantastic theoretician, fantastic economist, but over the last 10 years cannot execute......there are people like that also.

Lately i have a different perception on TTB..

How on earth can u put somebody's money into FD and make few millions RM fm doing so? Somemore these investors will go worship him every year in their AGM

Smart leh
31/01/2019 11:16 AM
qqq3 charles....its the process that counts.....

not just the immediate results.....

3 iii and Philips has the right process and character, habit and practise and intellectual capacity to make it work for them........

OTB? OTB process too many mistakes, mistakes too often, up and down , up and down only....no use one....further, it depended on client money to push up his shares.......

I also think icon has the intellectual capacity and character to make his method work for him.
31/01/2019 11:22 AM
qqq3 Posted by CharlesT > Jan 31, 2019 11:13 AM | Report Abuse

I thought u said yesterday that u dont want to promote this currymee?
=========

I am not promoting carimee...I am just saying luck works in mysterious ways......
31/01/2019 11:30 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Jan 31, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

KYY is into quarter profit X 4 at the moment....maybe , he gets lucky and Carimin every quarter better than last quarter Carimin $ 3, just like his VS used to be.....

S=Qr


KYY has proven he got the Q...now, what he needs is the r from his chosen stock...

This one not considered as one of yr promotion on currymee ah?
31/01/2019 11:32 AM
qqq3 then don't consider it as I promoting carimee.......
31/01/2019 11:36 AM
Icon8888 two of the most argumentative people in i3 are now engaging each other passionately

I have been waiting for this to happen when I posted my article
31/01/2019 11:36 AM
wiki123 bcoz the recent curry mee was very delicious...
31/01/2019 11:41 AM
CharlesT Different...

One otb hates most

Another one otb n h8s twin bro officially proclaimed as the smartest guy in i3

So different class n level
31/01/2019 11:42 AM
CharlesT When u see ultraman is fighting with monster u cant simply categoried both under the same fighting monster right?
31/01/2019 11:44 AM
Icon8888 not much different lah

monster destroy city

so does ultra man
31/01/2019 11:45 AM
CharlesT Monster may eat u but ultraman will never loh
31/01/2019 11:47 AM
CharlesT At worst he may accidently hentam yr house when u were in toiket n accidently killed u only
31/01/2019 11:48 AM
Icon8888 hello CharlesT
31/01/2019 11:48 AM
CharlesT Weird...i still prefer Ah Jon's photo than Ultraman...

Maybe ultraman can kill monsters only but cannot bring Ong like AH Jon
31/01/2019 11:49 AM
Icon8888 I remove Jon's photo because I don't want to provoke Connie mama

She has high blood pressure. I want to keep her calm
31/01/2019 11:51 AM
CharlesT Have u observed after u changed Ah Jon's photo yr luck in stock mkt also gone?

Dont play play with fengsui

fengsui plays an important role in my 67 sense investing too
31/01/2019 11:51 AM
CharlesT Lee Kah Seng also trusted Chan Pak very much in his early days until Chan Pak tok tok chiang many years ago
31/01/2019 11:52 AM
Icon8888 sorry, money come second, Connie mama health rank number 1

I need her to chase away the bad spirit
31/01/2019 11:52 AM
CharlesT Let's c how it goes...after a while u may need Ah Jon's handsome avatar again...
31/01/2019 11:53 AM
CharlesT Dont be iron teeth
31/01/2019 11:53 AM
Icon8888 let see what happens to trade talks

if no deal, then switch back to Ah Boy photo

like you say, he Ong me
31/01/2019 11:54 AM
CharlesT I also seldom make fun on Ah Jon lately....who knows one day i may need his handsome photo if my 67 senses investing go Holland....just in case
31/01/2019 11:55 AM
CharlesT Considered it as insurance
31/01/2019 11:55 AM
Icon8888 you shouldn't play too much with your 67

keep it for important shots
31/01/2019 11:56 AM
CharlesT 67 is good...as long as it's hard

I think u have almost forgotten the hardness
31/01/2019 11:57 AM
Icon8888 How dare you ? I ultraman leh
31/01/2019 11:58 AM
CharlesT lol...c Ultraman can bring u ONG or not loh
31/01/2019 12:01 PM
VenFx Ultramen exist meh
If there is no godzila
31/01/2019 12:02 PM
VenFx I hope to Wacth ultramen punch every Godzilla
In my kid time
31/01/2019 12:04 PM
Icon8888 Got to go

Just got a call from Godzilla

He wants to eat ice cream with me
31/01/2019 12:05 PM
CharlesT www.quora.com/Are-Godzilla-and-Ultraman-in-the-same-universe
31/01/2019 12:05 PM
VenFx I'm afraid the ice cream is invented by a sick scientists this round
31/01/2019 12:06 PM
probability walao..ultraman...stirs the ultraspirit childhood in me....
31/01/2019 12:11 PM
Fabien Extraordinaire Icon, why not have a look at Dialog?
31/01/2019 2:05 PM
Icon8888 High PE woh
31/01/2019 2:09 PM
Choivo Capital Haha funny lah you guys.

Personally, when Icon use my picture, my portfolio went up about 10%, when he stop, starting dropping.

As i no cash now (only some credit left) and unlikely to buy stocks for the next 2 months or so.

I would be quite ok with Icon changing back to my picture and letting us Ong and feel nice abit for CNY hahaha.
31/01/2019 2:16 PM
Connie555 Ha........................ha.........................ha

veli far ni (funny) la u.....

Keep the PLP going, we old already, dr say it is good to have some entertainment to keep the mind active....

would like to see more....



=====≠=========≠======≠======================≠=====


Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 31, 2019 02:16 PM | Report Abuse

Haha funny lah you guys.

Personally, when Icon use my picture, my portfolio went up about 10%, when he stop, starting dropping.

As i no cash now (only some credit left) and unlikely to buy stocks for the next 2 months or so.

I would be quite ok with Icon changing back to my picture and letting us Ong and feel nice abit for CNY hahaha.
31/01/2019 3:08 PM
Connie555 Look who is here!!! here comes the PLP again!!!!

Months back you are saying Icon article is for him to make money off over the optimistic people......

now u at there smelling people ass? what kind of people are u? Do u have credibility?

If u canot stand on your own principle, your so called unethical motive by those who posting article recommend stock and plug in some figure, then condemn icon instead of puking out some geli words like thanks icon, it really looks like you are licking icon ass seriously....

where is your credibility??? condemn people la....where is your lampa??? your father never give you balls???

Sorry icon, early morning kao zai at your discussion page.


__________________________________________

Choivo Capital Great read, Thanks Icon.

===================================

Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 14, 2018 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=======================≠============


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
31/01/2019 4:35 PM

(Icon) Why DKSH At Current Level Is Less Risky Than Many People Think

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 22 Jan 2019, 12:21 PM


 

DKSH traded between RM4 and RM6 most of the time. Based on 158 mil shares, the market essentially ascribed it a valuation ranging from RM632 mil to RM948 mil.

 

Based on historical earning of RM51 mil, it seemed that the market is comfortable with PER between 12 times and 18 times for the company.

 

However, due to its recent announcement of intended acquisition of Auric Pacific for RM500 mil (yet to be consummated), share price has collapsed to RM2.35 as at today. This translates into market cap of RM371 mil.

 

Investors have reason to be worried. As at September 2018, DKSH has RM190 mil borrowings and small amount of cash. Plus the RM500 mil borrowings to fund the acquisition, interest bearing debts will balloon to RM690 mil. This is quite a huge amount, as shareholders' funds is only RM586 mil. Gearing will become 1.17 times.

 

For most people, the first reaction is to shy away, as there is certain degree of financial risk associated with such high gearing.

 

What happens if there is an economic downturn and DKSH faces liquidity problem ? Will DKSH go into financial distress ?

 

Not likely. Because they can always do a cash call (rights issue or placement, depends on the price). Swiss major shareholder holds 74% equity interest in DKSH.

 

Isn't that bad ? Wouldn't that result in expansion of equity base, potentially diluting earnings and ROE ?

 

Yes, it will.

 

But if you take a closer look, even if that happens, worst come to the worst market capitalisation will go back to pre decline level.

 

Let's put in some numbers for illustration purpose.

 

Let's say DKSH does a rights issue of RM200 mil. That should be sufficient to address the issue as borrowings will be brought down to a more comfortable level of RM490 mil, while shareholders' funds will become RM786 mil. Gearing will drop from 1.17 times to 0.62 times. A relatively conservative and safe level for an established and well run company such as DKSH. (you can do another simulation with RM300 mil cash call, and the gearing will drop to 0.44 times).

 

What will happen when market cap balloon from the current RM371 mil to RM571 mil post rights issue ?

 

Nothing bad or drastic will really happen.

 

This is because based on DKSH's earning of RM51 mil, market had previously accepted a valuation ranging from RM632 mil to RM948 mil.

 

I know the message is not really that clear at this point, let me elaborate.

 

The market has penalised DKSH very severely due to the Auric Pacific deal, causing its market cap to decline from RM632 mil to RM371 mil now.

 

Due to that overreaction, even if they subsequently undertake a rights issue of RM200 mil to RM300 mil, worst come to the worst, you will face stagnation of share price. Share price is unlikely to go further down from current level.

 

In other words, if you buy at current level of RM2.35 and you are lucky, there will be no cash call, and you can potentially enjoy upside of 100% as share price goes back to as high as RM6.00 pursuant to earning multiple reflation.

 

If you are unlucky and there is a cash call, you are likely only to lose the opportunity for capital appreciation. There is unlikely to be huge downside risk. Because historically the market has already been comfortable with such market capitalisation based on earning of RM51 mil.

 

Limited risk, with substantial upside. That is how I see DKSH at current price level.

 

(If you find my reasoning above incorrect, kindly let me know. As I would also want to take remedial action to correct my mistake. Thank you)

 

p/s : Cynics will accuse me of intention to pump and dump. Just wait for them to appear.

Labels: DKSH
  2 people like this.
 
moneykj Hehe...Loaded 15% in stock pick portfolio. 4.00 is not a problem, represent more than 50% gain.
@Icon, why you didn't put in your portfolio?
22/01/2019 12:58 PM
Connie555 looking for my son where is him right now..... this is unethical icon gor, ltr my baby will cry mother cry dad again.....T.T

his dad hv to work 8hrs under the sun for the lego, now he cry around ltr fan dou his lou dao working pulak....i am worry
22/01/2019 1:21 PM
qqq3 i think have put in a lot of thoughts.......
22/01/2019 1:27 PM
Najib Zamry Even I Capital has buy call for DKSH at this price now.
22/01/2019 1:28 PM
Airline Bobby Whatever it is. After March only invest.
22/01/2019 1:28 PM
3iii http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C458G7980
22/01/2019 1:32 PM
Nicholasming91 Right issue will go up kah? Lol
22/01/2019 1:35 PM
qqq3 The Company is majority-owned by
DKSH Holding Ltd. of Switzerland
(“DKSH Switzerland”).

The case of 2 Swiss companies in Malaysia....

One Nestle

and one DKSH, long term investors also die die kaw kaw......

stockmarket not so easy........
22/01/2019 1:41 PM
dudu Buying a company with 500m, but that company only earn 20m yearly....PE25....500m financial cost almost 20m yearly
22/01/2019 6:26 PM
csan icon8888, have you considered that dksh is overvalued at those earlier prices you mentioned? at 10sen dividend previously and share price of RM4-6, dividend yield is 1.7-2.5%.this yield is reasonable if earnings growth is good. now with that kind of borrowing, can safely assume that dividend will drop significantly.
22/01/2019 8:41 PM
csan market had also previously accepted valuation of RM0.80 to RM1 for sasbadi. don't con people man...
22/01/2019 8:45 PM
csan also to add to my first comment, earnings growth has started to become negative. even less reason to accept previous valuations.
22/01/2019 8:46 PM
Icon8888 Csan the dividend question is easy to answer. 158 mil shares x 10 Sen is 16 mil RM

Not a big amount
22/01/2019 8:49 PM
Icon8888 Actually nobody knows. Only dksh management knows

A logical thing to do is to rationalise auric post acquisition. There are plenty of ways to do it. For example VSS to reduce workforce as dksh itself is expert in this kind of industry and doesn’t really need so many auric employees.

the major shareholder holds 74%. They have a lot at stake. I think they won’t do a dumb deal. They must have got all worked out before deciding



csan also to add to my first comment, earnings growth has started to become negative. even less reason to accept previous valuations.
22/01/2019 20:46
22/01/2019 8:59 PM
paperplane Icon, if really so damn good, why mgt not doing share buyback, look at. Myeg, without fail, everyday 2mil, damn crazy
22/01/2019 9:29 PM
Najib Zamry Icon8888, DKSH ‘S share price bashed down not due to Auric acquisition but more on the exclusion from Syariah Conpliance. You can see before Auric ‘S acquisition the share price already traded ae round 2.14 to 2.28
22/01/2019 9:45 PM
godhand dksh and its sad margin. it is cheap for a reason
22/01/2019 11:10 PM
paperplane Why they need to acquire new company? Have u ask yourself? Is it organic growth by itself too slow? Or is it some other reasons???
23/01/2019 12:41 AM
factorrumour at what price did u entered icon?
23/01/2019 1:15 AM
Icon8888 225
23/01/2019 6:05 AM
3iii ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK
An Aid to your Stock Selection

COMPANY NAME: DKSH
DATE OF ANALYSIS: 22.1.2019

For each question below, answer YES or NO

NO QUESTIONS
1 Have Sales increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
2 Have Sales DOUBLED in 5 - 7 years? NO
3 Have Earnings per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
4 Have Earnings per Shares DOUBLED in 5 years? NO
5 Any Dividend paid during the past 5 years? YES
6 Has Dividend per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
7 Is current Operating Margin (OM) = or > 15%? NO
8 Over the past 3 years, is OM stable/increasing? YES
9 Is current Return on Equity (ROE) = or > 15%? NO
10 Over the past 3 years, is ROE stable/increasing? NO
11 Is current Long Term Debt less than 1/3 of Net Worth? YES
12 Are Current Assets TWICE the Current Liabilities? NO
13 Does Cash plus Receivables EQUAL OR EXCEED Current Liabilities? NO
14 Is Projected Growth in EPS and Dividends at 15%? NO
15 Is Current P/E in the range of past 5 years Average P/Es? YES
16 SUMMARY: Is the Stock Worthy of further Analysis? NO



YES 4
NO 12
23/01/2019 2:15 PM
Icon8888 that shows how stupid the checklist is

if the checklist is applied to DKSH before collapse at RM6, it is of course a NO NO NO lah

but if the checklist is applied to DKSH after the share price has declined by 50%, then it is a different story

the risk reward balance has shifted mah

that is exactly my point - don't blindly follow guidance prescribed by Famous Investors

use your own brain to think independently. God gives it to you for a reason
30/01/2019 9:47 AM
Fabien Extraordinaire that's why 3iii can only invest in that small universe stocks that meet the checklist. a very small sample.
30/01/2019 9:56 AM
Choivo Capital Hmm, id rather buy petronm. Better absolute opportunities. That's about it.

This article is quite balanced. I dont think it has pump and dump nature.
30/01/2019 9:59 AM

(Icon) Why I Bought Hengyuan and Petronm Recently

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 22 Jan 2019, 10:35 AM


Recently, I bought Hengyuan and Petronm. And I did it without even checking the crack spread. 

 

Why ? Isn't crack spread an important determinant of their profitability ? 

 

Yes, of course it is. But it is only important if you are a short term player.

 

If you put on the cap of a long term investor, you will think like this :-

 

(a) Hengyuan and Petronm are currently trading near their recent years low, so it is a good time to enter (less susceptible to sell down by early birds as there is simply no excesses there);

 

(b) PER is low (based on earning power);

 

(c) Crack spread goes up and down all the time. Why should you be bothered ? If it comes down and causes the company's profitability to drop drastically, it is likely to be a temporary blip. History shows that crackspread never stay depressed or elevated indefinitely. In a few quarters time, earning is likely to recover when spread reverses to the mean.

 

By saying so, I am putting what I have been preaching recently into practice : "Investing involves buying something that in the event that things turn sour, will ultimately recover if you hold on for a reasonable period of time." (something to that effect)

 

 

 

(d) But what are the criterias for picking Hengyuan and Petronm out of so many stocks in Bursa ?

 

Because they are established players in a robust industry. The quality is there (as far as I am concerned). Instead of putting my money in an ACE counter selling tickets to the moon, I am buying into companies with many years of track record, sizeable in scale, high entry barriers, well regulated by the government and plenty of room to grow (driven by demographics and growth in per capita income). The ACE counter might not be there in 3 years' time, but Hengyuan and Petronm will very likely still be there.        

 

In short, they are of investment grade quality.

 

(e) What is the gameplan ? How do you intend to make money out of them ?

 

Through organic growth !!! Crackspread will cause their profitability to fluctuate from quarter to quarter. In certain quarters, they might even dip into the red. But who cares ? Earning will ultimately rebound when spread normalised. Just ignore the volatility. It is merely paper loss, if it happens. 

 

Over an extended period of time, they will reinvest their earning, expand their network and capacity. If you come back 10 years later, they might have grown into sizes beyond your recognition. So will their profitability.

 

We are talking about investing mah. 

 

(f) How about moat ? Don't you want to check whether they have moat ?

 

Nah... moat is overrated. Many companies in Bursa do not have visible sign of moat. But many investors still make money out of them. As long as you have a good feel of how the company can evolve and grow over an extended period of time (in this case, together with the economy, without insane competition), they are good for investment.

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

First of all, the major reason I bought into Hengyuan and Petronm is because they are trading at very low PER (based on earning power).

 

By taking a long term view, I cease to worry about the coming quarters result. Meaning I can just put them aside and get busy with other things in my life. This is the most basic definition of investing, isn't it ?

 

However, this is not applicable to all companies in Bursa. If you take exposure in a fly by night ACE counter, you better monitor it closely, because it can eventually go kaput.

 

Happy investing !!!

Labels: HENGYUAN, PETRONM
  8 people like this.
 
stockraider U need understand this loh....!!

1. ROE is a powerful inward looking tools for looking at the quality of investment, but it does not help u to determine whether it is good buy even the roe is high mah...!!

2. Good buy is determine by the reasonable PE or and with earnings growth mah....!!

A good example Nestle has a superb ROE of more than 100% but the company cannot n unable to find good investment to support high ROE returns as a result it pays high dividend loh...!! But bcos of its share price of exceed Rm 140.00 investing in it give u an earning yield of PE 50x or less than 2.6% pa, but yes there is some growth about 10% pa...including this growth will give u less than 5% pa loh..!! Unless u r a fixed deposits holder looking to punt a bit then Nestle may consider investable loh....!!

On the other hand insas The ROE is only 4% pa but bcos its high shareholder fund of Rm 2.54, it generate an eps of rm 0.10, giving an earning yield of 14% pa or pe 6.5x loh basing on share price rm 0.72 loh...!!
This insas is a credible long term margin of safety investment loh..!
22/01/2019 10:58 AM
stockraider The concept is simple, if u ask a taxi driver which is better as a taxi benz or proton ??....everyone will say benz mah...!!

But after factoring the price....they decide to buy proton mah...!!

Same concept mah....do not overpay for quality loh...!!
22/01/2019 11:02 AM
probability not a good time to buy (yet)...especially hengyuan...in my opinion

investors need to make use of all visible information...including near terms i suppose
22/01/2019 11:06 AM
stockraider Raider says can start to nimble abit loh....!!

U only wallop big when big info visible confirm loh...!!

Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 11:06 AM | Report Abuse

not a good time to buy (yet)...especially hengyuan...in my opinion

investors need to make use of all visible information...including near terms i suppose
22/01/2019 11:09 AM
probability how if big info is available to short soon?
22/01/2019 11:14 AM
Choivo Capital Thanks Unker, i appreciate it. Send me an email, lets meet up if you're in KL.
====

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 22, 2019 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

learn a bit from you also, Ah Boy
22/01/2019 11:16 AM
Icon8888 wait for you to grow up first
22/01/2019 11:30 AM
value88 I am also tempted to buy PetronM..rather than Hengyuan. What makes me hesitate is PetronM's coming quarterly earnings may be poor due to poor crack spread in Oct-Dec'18 period and potential stock holding loss as oil price declined quite sharply during Oct-Dec'18 period.
22/01/2019 11:41 AM
value88 I am thinking to buy after PetronM reports its Oct-Dec'18 quarterly result by end Feb'19. I probably can get cheaper price then.
22/01/2019 11:43 AM
value88 Having said that, PetronM is indeed selling at low valuation and attractive at current price level.
22/01/2019 11:43 AM
stockraider U need to know Petron has not spend on any plant upgrade yet mah...once they spend on capex their financial will look bad loh...!!

Unless they decide to close down their refinery, then they can avoid the poor balance sheet loh...!!

Posted by value88 > Jan 22, 2019 11:41 AM | Report Abuse

I am also tempted to buy PetronM..rather than Hengyuan. What makes me hesitate is PetronM's coming quarterly earnings may be poor due to poor crack spread in Oct-Dec'18 period and potential stock holding loss as oil price declined quite sharply during Oct-Dec'18 period.


value88
383 posts
Posted by value88 > Jan 22, 2019 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I am thinking to buy after PetronM reports its Oct-Dec'18 quarterly result by end Feb'19. I probably can get cheaper price then.


value88
383 posts
Posted by value88 > Jan 22, 2019 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

Having said that, PetronM is indeed selling at low valuation and attractive at current price level.
22/01/2019 12:01 PM
qqq3 nasty surprises......like it or not, still have to check against possible nasty surprises......
22/01/2019 12:41 PM
qqq3 nasty surprises......like it or not, still have to check against possible nasty surprises......

that is why predictability is a valued commodity.
22/01/2019 12:44 PM
paperplane Great icon. Im looking still. Might join you later... Hehe
22/01/2019 12:46 PM
qqq3 $12? sure or not? This thing will eventually serve as production center and all the products send to China, subject to transfer pricing.....remember RAPIDS.

This thing is here not to make money for u minorities but to serve China.....
22/01/2019 2:23 PM
PotentialGhost Buy Petronm is right choose.
22/01/2019 3:26 PM
Fabien Extraordinaire After DKSH, Hengyuan, Petronm...waiting for more write-ups from Icon.
22/01/2019 3:49 PM
dusti OK if you have plan to distribute ANG POW
22/01/2019 4:00 PM
tftey Probably you can get at lower price by end February especially with Hengyuan
22/01/2019 4:27 PM
3iii 3 recommendations from icon8888 within the SAME day!

Must have more ideas than money to invest.




Between Hengyuan, PetronM and Petdag, which one do you prefer for the long term?
22/01/2019 5:39 PM
3iii What I gather from reading icon8888's post.

The crack spread margin is at its lowest. Crack spread margin is cyclical. Therefore these stocks are at their cyclical lows. Therefore, got margin of safety.
22/01/2019 5:42 PM
stockraider Use brain to think mah...!!

1. Crack is the lowest, it is best to buy bcos share price undemanding mah....it will usually normalise bcos it is cyclical mah...!!

2. margin of safety preposition : Come up a equivalent Plant like hengyuan, it will cost at least Rm 10 billion or more mah....!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 22, 2019 05:42 PM | Report Abuse

What I gather from reading icon8888's post.

The crack spread margin is at its lowest. Crack spread margin is cyclical. Therefore these stocks are at their cyclical lows. Therefore, got margin of safety.
22/01/2019 5:48 PM
3iii http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C45852900


http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C458C1820


http://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C45878390
22/01/2019 5:48 PM
3iii Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.
22/01/2019 6:20 PM
stockraider but don overpay loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 22, 2019 06:20 PM | Report Abuse

Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise.
22/01/2019 6:23 PM
3iii The ability to say NO is a tremendous advantage for an investor.
22/01/2019 6:24 PM
supersaiyan3 You broke my heart when you talk about warrant (unimech-wa?), you nearly killed me when you talk about priceworth....(and what’s wrong with you buying jaks-wa, no offence)

I am pleased you come back to the right path. Great move!
22/01/2019 6:25 PM
3iii 3 recommendations from icon8888 within the SAME day!

Must have more ideas than money to invest.






Much success in investing can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.
22/01/2019 6:27 PM
Alex™ don buy pls
22/01/2019 10:34 PM
Alex™ and also dun buy PE168 company
22/01/2019 10:34 PM
newbie8080 Good write up
23/01/2019 9:16 AM
GrahamNewman Munger once said his investing strategy is akin to "sit on your ass" investing. Indeed one had to do the legworks and have the right temperatement for this strategy to work, else they won't be able to sit alone in a room and think and left the room rather hurriedly when they hear some bad news.
23/01/2019 4:43 PM
Aseng icon888,

good buy . petronm is my wife
24/01/2019 10:16 AM
Aseng this year I got 4 wives that i will keep till end of the year to see whether it still takes good care of me or not , others just hit and run to test my lucks
petronm is one pf them . still reluctant to let go though the price seems disappointing but i really like its business model
24/01/2019 10:24 AM
Icon8888 Petronm better than hengyuan
24/01/2019 10:25 AM
Aseng better or not not better God know

I only know holding petronm can sleep well
24/01/2019 10:31 AM
Aseng as I grow older ,
sleep well is more important than seeing your big profit tomorrow
24/01/2019 10:33 AM
Icon8888 You don't need to be god to know

There are objective facts to substantiate

I don't simply say things
24/01/2019 10:36 AM
Aseng growing older doesn't mean no entertainment
hit and run is a good choice
win, you got the pleasure of a lucky bet in 4 ekors
lose , there is always a better next bet

right ?
24/01/2019 10:37 AM
Aseng ekovest , I like highway
petronm , refinery cum retailing
hibiscus, matched my pa-zhi
krono , big data
24/01/2019 10:40 AM
Icon8888 Ekovest I like also

Just a bit worry about PH asks them to cut construction margin

Just a bit worry
24/01/2019 10:44 AM
Aseng life is simple , just do or invest in what you like

when you are old , what you like comes first ,profit will come by itself

Mr market is crazy , if you think you understand what a crazy man thinks, then you will die hard standing

when your investing theory is simple , your life is simple
24/01/2019 10:45 AM
Aseng 1. you must believe PH that we had elected is a responsible government

2. it is ruled by the principle of "rule of laws" NOT " ruled by manifesto"

3. nation needs construction to build

4. No nation will kill a good businessman who bring in good tax

5. there is no enemy in politic , there is only good partners





Icon8888 Ekovest I like also

Just a bit worry about PH asks them to cut construction margin

Just a bit worry
24/01/2019 10:51 AM
Aseng Posted by Aseng > Jan 24, 2019 12:03 AM | Report Abuse X

Mr market is a crazy guy
If you think you understand what a crazy man think you will die hard standing at the end
The best is still dumb dumb hold a stock that worth RM1. 50 at the current price of 52 sen and do nothing but knowing we'll that Duke will generate more and more cash every quarter and worth more and more value as time go by.
24/01/2019 10:53 AM
Aseng Mr Market gives him a good and hot slap right on the face



Posted by qps9999 > Jan 24, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

EVOKEST condition is not good..tommrrow will go down
24/01/2019 10:55 AM
RainT EKOVEST is highway toll

WCEHB also is highway toll


Which one is better and good? EKOVEST or WCEHB?
24/01/2019 4:10 PM
Connie555 Oh mai god come back from vacation see my son at there PLP icon8888 again i buay tahan liao....


Aiyo I thought i am the only one feel like everything other than himself is unethical and cynical....let me remind u something son, please stop your PLP bullshit....please remember how u start the fire on everyone else included icon8888.....

but its ok, normal symtoms as investor always fail to remember the past or history....




Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 14, 2018 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=====


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...
25/01/2019 12:21 AM
Nicholasming91 Hengyyuan ok la.. cash increase 600m,
25/01/2019 12:29 AM
paperplane Absent,I like all your picks
10/02/2019 4:29 AM
paperplane Aseng
10/02/2019 4:29 AM

(Icon) What Is Investing ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sun, 20 Jan 2019, 2:42 PM


On 23 December 2015, I wrote that investing involves holding on to stocks for long term to enjoy compounded return, other stock market activities are at best "trading".

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/88514.jsp

 

===========================================================================

 

However, recently I have been reading extensively about Investment Gurus' works. One thing that shock me is that very few of them actually hold stocks forever. Contrarian investor John Neff sold his stock within months if they registered good return. Even Joel Greenblatt (KC Chong's favourite) also indulged in short term activities.

 

As long as can make money with proper consideration of risk, it is valid. No need to hold long, long term only to be considered legitimate.

 

 

I hereby declare :

 

"Investing should not be defined only as picking good stocks and holding forever to enjoy compounded return. Buying an overlooked stock to wait for market to rectify mispricing and hence provides opportunity to exit, is also considered investing. Even if it happens within few months. 

 

Short term activities should not be automatically frowned upon. Anything bought based on careful evaluation of value and proper reasoning, and in the event that things turn sour, can be held until recovery, is considered investing.

 

Holding period is totally irrelevant."

  5 people like this.
 
3iii Mr SSLee,

You are very interesting. You write well and certainly can go into great details into a stock.

If only your investing philosophy and strategy are safe and sound, given your diligence and effort, you can do well.

At present, I don't see much hope in your investing to date. Why spend so much time trying to repair a sinking ship, you are better off abandoning the ship and go into one that can take you to the desired destination? Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.

Would not it be better to attend an AGM where you praised the management for another great year of performance, take a few pictures with them and promise to see them again the next AGM? :-)
22/01/2019 8:26 PM
3iii Where are the customers' yacht? Many do not even have a sampan after a lifelong period of investing in the stock market.
22/01/2019 8:28 PM
stockraider Probability,

Your suggestion have been all taken care mah....except left with 1 no balls fellow by name of 3iii, who talkcock everyday but do not take up challenge mah.....!!

Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 08:45 PM | Report Abuse

actually, we need a competition between all these sifus:

Icon, Raider, 3ii, Mr. Long, cute Jon, Sslee

I see Raider, Icon, Jon participated in i3 stock competition for 2019, i would like to see the rest to participate and create their own personal portfolio to prove their investment strategy, especially those could not give a clear thesis why their pick will perform well.

It is all very good discussion actually...never in i3 history we brainstorm on 'investment' like this before.

But as always, despite 6 pages of discussion i could not take away much.

Icon probably need to create another blog on the same subject to refine discussion further.
22/01/2019 9:21 PM
Sslee Dear Philip,
I quote, “You seem to be making the mistake that I am out to hunt down your beloved INSAS stock.” Make no mistake, I appreciate your different view and in fact I welcome it as I actually waiting to collect INSAS share at cheaper cost to me. But unfortunately when I present my case I need to speak the truth base on fact and figure contain in the annual report. Some of the very private information that I gather from my private meeting with newly appointed CEO, I kept it as P&C. I quote, “Insas is a founding shareholder of Inari 11 years ago and its original 51% equity interest in Inari has been diluted over the years primarily due to its IPO in 2011” how else to explain the INSAS Board capability in building up INARI to what it is today if not for the management prudent and foresight to spend few millions as seed money/burn rate (charge to P/L) to organic growth their business in different sector and working with renowned university and researcher to launch their patented products.

Also make no mistake, I am not out to hunt down your beloved “QL” I only present what is contain in the annual report as I feel even though QL is a great company but the current market price is too rich a valuation and perhaps you can relook into its valuation during the next quarter result and make you own decision whether you should cash out and invest in Nasdaq: STNE.

By the way I like to read yours and Jon Choivo articles as both of you are very well read and well versed in different methodology of investment and stock valuation, it’s a refreshing read. I thank you for contributing your articles to i3.

Dear 3iii,
I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.”
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices. My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year. My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history. My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX..

As of your question, “Would not it be better to attend an AGM where you praised the management for another great year of performance, take a few pictures with them and promise to see them again the next AGM?” My answer is not necessary since the company is already well run and manage, your words of praising would not add further value whereas your hard hitting and fact finding questions will make the board wake up, listening to you and you can see a sea change during the next AGM.

Thank you
22/01/2019 9:35 PM
3iii >>>>
SSLee

Dear 3iii,
I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.”
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices. My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year. My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history. My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX..

As of your question, “Would not it be better to attend an AGM where you praised the management for another great year of performance, take a few pictures with them and promise to see them again the next AGM?” My answer is not necessary since the company is already well run and manage, your words of praising would not add further value whereas your hard hitting and fact finding questions will make the board wake up, listening to you and you can see a sea change during the next AGM.

Thank you
>>>>>




This is investing. I take my investing very seriously.

I avoid lousy companies. In the long run, I am better off with companies with great businesses.

Given a company with poor economics and great management, the reputation of the company remains intact. Some businesses are just gruesome and generally will remain so even if the management are superb.

The opportunity cost of parking your money in a poor performer or loser is just too harmful for the finances of the careful investor.

If you have to be always actively prodding the management, that tells a lot too of the quality of the management and its alignment of their interest with the shareholders. For example, if the management embarks on cost cutting or cost efficiency, you should be happy and yet sad too. Why were they not cost efficient at all time?
22/01/2019 10:04 PM
3iii >>>>Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 09:52 PM | Report Abuse

walao..sslee nicely whacked 3ii... >>>


A no body is cheering from the sideline. :-)
22/01/2019 10:05 PM
qqq3 sslee

told u not to attend so many lousy company AGM....at the end of the day who con who also don't know...One a novice, the other a seasoned con....easy to guess.
22/01/2019 10:07 PM
3iii SSLee

I have posted this one page quick analysis to screen for great companies.

Hope you can find this useful in your selection of great companies to invest into.
22/01/2019 10:08 PM
3iii https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905009575.jsp


ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK
An Aid to your Stock Selection

COMPANY NAME:
DATE OF ANALYSIS:

For each question below, answer YES or NO

NO QUESTIONS
1 Have Sales increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years?
2 Have Sales DOUBLED in 5 - 7 years?
3 Have Earnings per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years?
4 Have Earnings per Shares DOUBLED in 5 years?
5 Any Dividend paid during the past 5 years?
6 Has Dividend per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years?
7 Is current Operating Margin (OM) = or > 15%?
8 Over the past 3 years, is OM stable/increasing?
9 Is current Return on Equity (ROE) = or > 15%?
10 Over the past 3 years, is ROE stable/increasing?
11 Is current Long Term Debt less than 1/3 of Net Worth?
12 Are Current Assets TWICE the Current Liabilities?
13 Does Cash plus Receivables EQUAL OR EXCEED Current Liabilities?
14 Is Projected Growth in EPS and Dividends at 15%?
15 Is Current P/E in the range of past 5 years Average P/Es?
16 SUMMARY: Is the Stock Worthy of further Analysis?
22/01/2019 10:09 PM
stockraider U understand investment or not ??

Who say insas is lousy when it sit on more than Rm 300m nett cash with NTA exceeding Rm 2.54 per share and with div yield of 3% pa loh...!!

The pe of insas is about 6x mah n for the past 10 yrs insas has been making monies loh...!!

Nestle maybe good company but it has a very high handicapped with its overvalue share price with PE 50x loh...!!

Imagine u r a good tennis player...but u handicapped by playing tennis on a wheel chair....the chances of u winning may not be good, even when u playing agst average players mah...!!

Insas hathway is Ben Graham share picked jewel with very big margin of safety Mah...!!

This is investing. I take my investing very seriously.

I avoid lousy companies. In the long run, I am better off with companies with great businesses.

Given a company with poor economics and great management, the reputation of the company remains intact. Some businesses are just gruesome and generally will remain so even if the management are superb.

The opportunity cost of parking your money in a poor performer or loser is just too harmful for the finances of the careful investor.

If you have to be always actively prodding the management, that tells a lot too of the quality of the management and its alignment of their interest with the shareholders. For example, if the management embarks on cost cutting or cost efficiency, you should be happy and yet sad too. Why were they not cost efficient at all time?
22/01/2019 10:17 PM
3iii >>>>Dear 3iii,
I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.” <<<

>>>>
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices.
>>>>


You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more.


>>> My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year.>>>

>>>>My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history.>>>>

>>>> My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX.. >>>>


One of the characteristic of a successful investor is to know the stocks to avoid.

You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong. An example: Mr. 1015.


Before adding a new investment, consider adding to the old ones that already are in your portfolio. If a business is attractive enough for you to buy once, it may well pay to repeat the process.
22/01/2019 10:25 PM
stockraider One of Successful investment characteristic of Ben Graham is to buy undervalue with big margin of safety in order to take advantage of soochai Mr market Mah....!!

And to continue repeat this successful formula mah....!!

And insas is the best example of a good value investment buy loh...!!

And do not make the mistake to buy overvalue stock with PE 50x and let mr market taking advantage of u loh...!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 22, 2019 10:25 PM | Report Abuse

>>>>Dear 3iii,

I quote, “Your shareholder activism though admirable sadly brings about little results. You are better served by better companies with better management.” <<<

>>>>
My upbringing taught me to seek the truth and nothing but the truth and give voice to voiceless and fight for justices.
>>>>


You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more.


>>> My shareholder activism had result in INSAS paying an interim dividend of 2 cents and hopefully a formal dividend policy in this year.>>>

>>>>My questioning in Xingquan and CSL had result in SC calling the external auditor for questioning and the rest is history.>>>>

>>>> My questioning in Hengyuan had help me to know the detail of Hengyuan business and the next AGM the board will face another round of hard questioning from me on Brent Crude oil pricing and CAPEX.. >>>>


One of the characteristic of a successful investor is to know the stocks to avoid.

You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong. An example: Mr. 1015.

Before adding a new investment, consider adding to the old ones that already are in your portfolio. If a business is attractive enough for you to buy once, it may well pay to repeat the process.
22/01/2019 10:38 PM
3iii >>>Posted by stockraider > Jan 22, 2019 10:38 PM | Report Abuse

One of Successful investment characteristic of Ben Graham is to buy undervalue with big margin of safety in order to take advantage of soochai Mr market Mah....!! <<<


Your "investing" into Hengyuan and many other stocks did not suggest you know the teachings of Ben Graham well.

Don't kid yourself with this Ben Graham's teachings.
22/01/2019 10:43 PM
stockraider Based on Hengyuan situation what are the lessons we can learn from there leh ??

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!
22/01/2019 10:49 PM
3iii Somehow, I sense probability does not like me. :-)

Perhaps it has something to do with my investing. Haha.


The stock does not even know that I own it. :-)
22/01/2019 11:01 PM
qqq3 probability....must be a remisier....hates long term.....
22/01/2019 11:12 PM
3iii >>>Probability posted (subsequently deleted) thus, and I asked...

Blog: Is QL Resources worth investing now? kcchongnz
Jan 19, 2019 05:17 PM | Report Abuse

>>>>
probability what 3ii makes in 10 years ...raider makes in 1 year...

of course sour grape...become toxic grape lor...
19/01/2019 16:39

probability never believe anyone who talks like a professor...without any hard facts lor....

if you dig deep inside...their actions are all fundamentally controlled by emotions like jealousy and greed lor...no matter how rational they try to sell their arguments....

take Jon Choivo, 3iii, Long number, whoever u want...

all are controlled by emotions...
19/01/2019 16:43>>>>>



Probability speaks.


Facts?

Emotion? >>>



>>>>
Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 10:04 AM | Report Abuse X

>>>>
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 08:45 AM | Report Abuse

3iii is one of the respectable i3 members on the platform. I remember those days where almost everybody went crazy over Hengyuan asset value. 3iii and Ricky were the two whom kept their sanity. To this day, I still look upon 3iii especially when he successfully countered stockraider , probability & co bullishness. To keep a cool mind under a rising market is not easy. It is even more impressive when you could counter them with facts.


Flintstones
1632 posts
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 08:48 AM | Report Abuse

To study a typical boom-bust cycle on i3, please go to Hengyuan forum and read all posts from 2017-2018. The amount of brain power put into the analysis of Hengyuan is unmatched. We had many smart guys trying to predict Hengyuan quarterly profits which were futile in the end. We also had some value guys giving Hengyuan a RM 50 target price which is theoretically sensible due to the replacement cost. But, cyclical is a cyclical. It is a huge lesson and many long time i3 members chose to brush it off like nothing happened as if the pain and shame was too hard to bear.
>>>


Thanks.

This is an open forum.

The thing about investing is in every transaction, there is a buyer and a seller, each looking at the share differently and from their own perspective.

Well, the saying goes ... you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Until then, it was one hell of a party. You can still feel the pulsations in some of the posts, for example, that of probability. By his own admission, he is no body. ?


>>>>>
22/01/2019 11:12 PM
3iii >>>
qqq3 probability....must be a remisier....hates long term.....
22/01/2019 23:12<<<<


I did ask.

Never ask a barber if you need a hair-cut.
22/01/2019 11:13 PM
qqq3 probability...artificial ? don't like artificial? King of artificial is Raider and SS lee...thanks you with every post...artificial enough or not?
22/01/2019 11:13 PM
3iii >>> Posted by probability > Jan 22, 2019 11:14 PM | Report Abuse

for a long term man...no need to be so concern on short term movements ma...

anyway..let him share what he wants...just that he does not need to condemn others i think..

thats the missing thing <<<


Please reign in your emotions.

You were the one who posted some comments thus which I replied.

>>>Probability posted (subsequently deleted) thus, and I asked...

Blog: Is QL Resources worth investing now? kcchongnz
Jan 19, 2019 05:17 PM | Report Abuse >>>


Interestingly you probably felt unwarranted and deleted them.
22/01/2019 11:20 PM
3iii Have a positive attitude. Stay with the issues, ignore the person.
22/01/2019 11:21 PM
qqq3 probability...

over a life time...in the long run....only those who learn to say NO can make money from the stock market........REMEMBER THAT.
22/01/2019 11:23 PM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
I quote, “You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more”

Investment philosophy: Looking for stocks that give reasonable dividend yield and capital appreciation. (A bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush). Understand that in order to beg a 10 bagger needs patience to wait for next market crash. (If it occurs I am prepare, if it doesn’t happen I am fine with my current investment) Note: 1/3 in stock market investment, 1/3 with my wife FD and another 1/3 in my FD account. Debt free, still have my full time pay job, my two sons already working and my daughter 1st year in Sunway University (Mass communication and art of advertisement). Isn’t that fulfilling my duty to my family and careful with my finance?

Life philosophy: Do not stay still in your circle of competent/comfort zone needs to constantly challenge your limit. Past success do not guarantee future success and past failure do not mean future failure as long as you are prepared to learn from all and re-examines your mistakes/method. So now I am learning from you can you teach me how to value INSAS just base on INARI alone (19.1% of associate company of INSAS) contributed RM 40.15 million dividends to INSAS FYR2018. How much it’s worth to INSAS?

Note: You can look into INARI Top 30 shareholders and tell me all these big Funds, will they invest in INARI if they do not believe in INARI sustainable growth story. Isn’t those miss the boat during INARI growing year should grab the opportunity now by investing in INSAS at the lower costs to them?

Thank you
22/01/2019 11:54 PM
3iii In investing, you can usually analyse the stocks quickly to see if you like them or not. Just like Buffett, you generally can make a decision in less than 5 minutes.

Those stocks you wish to be involved with, you will dwell deeper.
22/01/2019 11:58 PM
3iii ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK
An Aid to your Stock Selection

COMPANY NAME: INSAS
DATE OF ANALYSIS: 23.1.2019

For each question below, answer YES or NO

NO QUESTIONS
1 Have Sales increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
2 Have Sales DOUBLED in 5 - 7 years? NO
3 Have Earnings per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
4 Have Earnings per Shares DOUBLED in 5 years? NO
5 Any Dividend paid during the past 5 years? YES
6 Has Dividend per Share increased CONTINUOUSLY for 5 years? NO
7 Is current Operating Margin (OM) = or > 15%? YES
8 Over the past 3 years, is OM stable/increasing? YES
9 Is current Return on Equity (ROE) = or > 15%? NO
10 Over the past 3 years, is ROE stable/increasing? NO
11 Is current Long Term Debt less than 1/3 of Net Worth? YES
12 Are Current Assets TWICE the Current Liabilities? YES
13 Does Cash plus Receivables EQUAL OR EXCEED Current Liabilities? YES
14 Is Projected Growth in EPS and Dividends at 15%? NO
15 Is Current P/E in the range of past 5 years Average P/Es? NO
16 SUMMARY: Is the Stock Worthy of further Analysis? NO


YES 6
NO 10
23/01/2019 12:10 AM
stockraider Put it this way loh...3iii continue to bad mouth ben graham margin of safety, despite warren buffet highly respect ben graham mah...!!

U look at Insas criteria...it exactly fall into Ben graham investment criteria mah...!!

Sslee selection of insas is a very fine safe selection mah....although not type of growth stock....it is huge undervalue stock mah...!!

For growth stock ur expectation is to continue growth to sustain the share price whereas for undervalue stock, what u need is just a rerating of confidence that will push the stock price up to reach a reasonable value from highly undervalue mah...!!

Insas is a profitable co, huge cash holding, pays reasonable div, huge discount to nta, all these is highly positive factors for rerating criteria loh...!!

3iii has been acting wrongly to deceive a safety investor like ssleee loh...scaring him like he will lose his family & wealth mah...!!

In fact, if sslee will to change his system, like buying into QL or Nestle, raider think the risk is even higher bcos he is chasing overvaluation loh..!!

Remember sslee investment value investment approach, that people like 3iii and Mr Long thought it is short term trading but it is a genuine investment using share valuation to take advantage of Mr Market folly mah..!!
In fact Warren Buffet has been using this method for a long time successfully loh....!!

Buffet change to long term hold of late, bcos his fund has grown too big mah..!
I read one of buffet comment, he can even get higher return, if he does not manage such a large funds loh...!!

Meaning if he use his old ways of investment based on margin of safety, he can even get even higher return loh...!!
23/01/2019 12:49 AM
qqq3 raid...I don't have to know the Big Ben to know legends don't get himself involved with third liners......
23/01/2019 12:52 AM
stockraider U don understand loh...Ben Graham buy alot of 3rd liners as long as it is highly undervalue following his margin of safety criteria mah..!!

Traders like u really don understand loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 12:52 AM | Report Abuse

raid...I don't have to know the Big Ben to know legends don't get himself involved with third liners......
23/01/2019 12:56 AM
qqq3 when legends get involved with third liners, they take over the company, not sit passively to be screwed.
23/01/2019 8:33 AM
qqq3 when legends get involved with third liners, they take over the company, not sit passively to be screwed.....like City of London, screwed by icap for > 5 years already.
23/01/2019 8:35 AM
3iii >>>Posted by Sslee > Jan 22, 2019 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

Dear 3iii,
I quote, “You owe a duty to your family to be careful with your finances. Invest wisely and carefully. Invest in yourself. Read more”

Investment philosophy: Looking for stocks that give reasonable dividend yield and capital appreciation. (A bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush). Understand that in order to beg a 10 bagger needs patience to wait for next market crash. (If it occurs I am prepare, if it doesn’t happen I am fine with my current investment) Note: 1/3 in stock market investment, 1/3 with my wife FD and another 1/3 in my FD account. Debt free, still have my full time pay job, my two sons already working and my daughter 1st year in Sunway University (Mass communication and art of advertisement). Isn’t that fulfilling my duty to my family and careful with my finance? <<<<


Sslee

How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?
23/01/2019 8:47 AM
3iii >>>Note: 1/3 in stock market investment, 1/3 with my wife FD and another 1/3 in my FD account.<<<<



From my observation, you are better to work with a financial advisor.
23/01/2019 8:48 AM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
Thank you for your: “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK” I am busy with my daily full time job can I ask you a favor please scan thro’ bursa and list down the most yes answers and with PE below 20 even better if I can get QL PE below 10 during 2010-2009 or close to your NESTLE PE when you first bought into it. I will then invest RM200K and continues top up every quarter for next 40 quarter into 2 million shares by 2029.

Quote from Mr. Philip, “Now, I must admit, when you see the QL director himself Mr Chia be at the site 1 hour before you wake up, you become very respectful and clear about the quality of management. And so after chinese new year of 2009 after company bonus when I bought RM200K worth of QL----That was when I knew I had to look at QL deeper. Reading into the financial reports, it was very high pe (around 29 if i remember correctly), but the free cash flow, the growth in revenue, and the speed of implementation. I attended AGM. read into the competitors. “
I remember shaking mr chia song kun hand and actually having a talk with him regarding his policies and strategies. Very humble and hands on man who wakes up at 5 and goes to site directly early morning. If I could have him working for me I thought, I'd never lose a nights sleep.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/7084.jsp?type=last10fy

As of your question, “How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?”
My answer none so far. But I can foreseen my fortune going for a sea change if you and Mr. Philip can recommend stocks as you stated that fulfilled your “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK”
I am eagerly looking forward to your recommendation, hope you don’t disappointed me.

My thousand thanks.
23/01/2019 9:19 AM
3iii >>
Dear 3iii,
Thank you for your: “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK” I am busy with my daily full time job can I ask you a favor please scan thro’ bursa and list down the most yes answers and with PE below 20 even better if I can get QL PE below 10 during 2010-2009 or close to your NESTLE PE when you first bought into it. I will then invest RM200K and continues top up every quarter for next 40 quarter into 2 million shares by 2029.<<<


I am sharing to show another side of investing.

>>>>
As of your question, “How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?”
My answer none so far. But I can foreseen my fortune going for a sea change if you and Mr. Philip can recommend stocks as you stated that fulfilled your “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK”
I am eagerly looking forward to your recommendation, hope you don’t disappointed me.

My thousand thanks.
>>>>>


I share my philosophy and strategy.
Sorry, I never ask people to buy or sell.
They have to do their own hard work.
Regards
23/01/2019 3:09 PM
stockraider As usual this no balls 3iii avoiding a direct stock pick request from sslee loh....!!

Why leh ??? Basically this 3iii no balls loh...!!

If he make a statement n make a stock call....if successful he has bragging rights mah...!! But he miss this opportunity mah..!!

Despite this 3iii....talkcock everyday & bragging of his growth stock, but when confronted with a challenge this 3iii chicken out loh...!!

Why chicken leh ??

This 3iii no confidence with his system mah, he is afraid people laugh at him if fail loh....!!

He is not that smart & not that bold loh...!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 23, 2019 03:09 PM | Report Abuse
>>
Dear 3iii,
Thank you for your: “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK” I am busy with my daily full time job can I ask you a favor please scan thro’ bursa and list down the most yes answers and with PE below 20 even better if I can get QL PE below 10 during 2010-2009 or close to your NESTLE PE when you first bought into it. I will then invest RM200K and continues top up every quarter for next 40 quarter into 2 million shares by 2029.<<<

I am sharing to show another side of investing.

>>>>
As of your question, “How many 10 baggers do you have in your present portfolio?”
My answer none so far. But I can foreseen my fortune going for a sea change if you and Mr. Philip can recommend stocks as you stated that fulfilled your “ONE PAGE QUICK ANALYSIS OF A STOCK”
I am eagerly looking forward to your recommendation, hope you don’t disappointed me.

My thousand thanks. >>>>>

I share my philosophy and strategy.
Sorry, I never ask people to buy or sell.
They have to do their own hard work.
Regards
23/01/2019 3:46 PM
probability investing is capitalist way of creating a pyramid scheme to cheat the poor who are slaves of their reproductive organs to copulate and reproduce for future consumption...
23/01/2019 3:53 PM
stockraider In a way some truth loh....!!

But if u worry about this issue, why don u make a point to check the director remunerations b4 buying the stock leh ??

Posted by 如鱼得水 > Jan 23, 2019 03:51 PM | Report Abuse

investing is giving money to companies director to live a luxury life... n u yourself go Holland drink tulip juice..
23/01/2019 3:54 PM
probability in a world without capitalism...all production should equal consumption...and there should not be left over, excess of production (retention) for justifying future growth in consumption.....


it should be pure barter

the music will stop when population awakens like the japanese...

and its the duty of all economist, politician and businessman...to keep the music on...

the show must go on
23/01/2019 3:58 PM
qqq3 investing is selling dreams and hope....

everyone needs dreams and hope.
23/01/2019 3:59 PM
stockraider Correctloh....think & grow rich are all base on the blind faith of hope mah......!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 03:59 PM | Report Abuse

investing is selling dreams and hope....

everyone needs dreams and hope.
23/01/2019 4:00 PM
qqq3 don't buy from Thong Kok Kee.....its a night mare he is selling....
23/01/2019 4:03 PM
stockraider He is a change man of late mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 04:03 PM | Report Abuse

don't buy from Thong Kok Kee.....its a night mare he is selling....
23/01/2019 4:07 PM
qqq3 selling raider hope.
23/01/2019 4:08 PM
stockraider It is not hope u can see for yourself the success mah....!!

1. Just inari 19% that insas own is more than exceed the whole insas mkt capitalization loh...!!

2. Insas is sitting on a nett cash of Rm 300m mah...!! He did not sapu any monies loh...!!

3, Recently insas pays decent div with yield of around 3% pa this is even higher than nestle div yield of only 2.5% pa.

4. He has grown insas NTA to rm 2.54 per share and he has steer insas to a track record of 10 yr annual growth of shareholder fund without fail loh...!!

5. He has help insas to achieve a decent latest eps which resulted insas having an attractive PE of 6x loh...!!

6. He even relinquish his executive position to allow his captain Mr Wong to take charge of Insas loh...!!

Mr Thong is one can be consider one of the best 5 star ivy league investment banker, the best msia ever had loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 04:08 PM | Report Abuse

selling raider hope.
23/01/2019 4:20 PM
qqq3 ask them to give u some Inari shares la.
23/01/2019 4:27 PM
stockraider i m comfortable they can create more & more value on inari...no need to so kencheong bcos they only own 19% mah...when the right time come insas share price can double or even triple when they decide to distribute inari share mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

ask them to give u some Inari shares la.
23/01/2019 4:33 PM
qqq3 will not be long before your Insas is a PE 50 stock at 70 sen ......and without any path to growth..........guarantee.
23/01/2019 5:06 PM
stockraider Insas investment strategy is not growth but fair value rerating due to insas share price huge discount to its fair value mah...!!

It is totally diff from Growth investment loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 23, 2019 05:05 PM | Report Abuse

will not be long before your Insas is a PE 50 stock......and without any path to growth..........guarantee.
23/01/2019 5:08 PM
3iii Benjamin Graham, the founding father of value investing, was the first to recognize the quality problem among equities back in the 1930s.

- Graham classified stocks as either Quality or Low Quality.

- He also observed that the greatest losses result not from buying quality at an excessively high price, but from buying Low Quality at a price that seems good value.
24/01/2019 8:35 AM
stockraider With the fast recovery of inari share price, there maybe a fair chance that insas, could be a technology growth stock too, bcos of vast insas exposure on inari....the investment of insas on inari has appreciated more than the whole insas capitalization mah....!!

Just sit n relax and watch the opportunity of insas, the best margin of safety stock....insas hathaway loh...!!

U can just buy insas instead of inari mah....!!
26/01/2019 12:18 PM

(Icon) MBM Resources (2) - The Myth About Associate Stake

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 3 Jan 2019, 4:03 PM


One of the biggest myth I encounter throughout my investing and professional career is the nature of associate stake.

 

There is a widespread belief that associate stake is merely accounting profit. You can't access the cash flow. In other words, can see but cannot touch.

 

For example, qqq3's comments today :

 

 

Is that true ? Before I even go into details to disprove the myth, let me just ask you a simple question :

 

You buy 1,000 Maybank shares, do you have control ? You don't, right ? But do you get dividend from Maybank ? Yes, you do.

 

The same is true for associate stake. Between 2010 and 2018, MBM Resources received a total of RM515 mil dividend from its Perodua associate stake, equivalent to RM57 mil per annum.

 

That is how it looked like in the accounts (FY2017 and FY2016, for illustration purpose) :

 

 

Based on 391 mil shares, the average dividend of RM57 mil received is equivalent to RM0.15 per share per annum, which could be used to pay dividend to MBM Resources shareholders. (The highest dividend ever paid by MBM Resources is RM0.17 per share in FY2015.)

 

As for "control", that is a non issue, in my opinion. Perodua has a stable and diversified shareholding structure, held by UMW, MBM, Daihatsu, PNB and Mitsui.

 

These are all very strong shareholders. Check and balance is hence not an issue. There is no need to have dominant stake. Anyway, it is a common practice to have Shareholders' Agreement to govern the operations. The Perodua group in its current structure has been in existence since 1994. So far there is no issue of shareholders conflict.  

 

 

Concluding Remarks

 

Far from just accounting profit, MBM's 22% associate stake in Perodua is packed with flesh and blood and generates real economic benefit. Every year it contributes more than RM50 mil cash inflow to MBM Resources, which in turn is distributed to reward loyal shareholders. 

Labels: MBMR
  Icon8888 likes this.
 
qqq3 Posted by qqq3 > Jan 3, 2019 04:04 PM | Report Abuse X

as for Jaks and IPP....no worries...IPP got very high dividend payout ratios and Jaks will not suffer similar fate.

Perodua....about 40% dividend payout ratio...no wonder PE ratis below average

Jaks IPP....IPP normally 90% to 100% payout ratio.......here, expect normal PEs.
03/01/2019 4:11 PM
Icon8888 I hope you are right qqq3 ! I wish Jaks pay out handsome dividend also
03/01/2019 4:13 PM
qqq3 I say IPP high dividends....Jaks don't know la....that depends on Andy.......
03/01/2019 4:15 PM
Icon8888 wait... jaks also owns associate stake in IPP.

then that is similar as MBM, right ?

LOL

(lets see how qqq3 argue back)
03/01/2019 4:17 PM
abang_misai don't dream too much Icon uncle. Please always remember every company is different. No hope on Jaks. I already elaborated to you. It's up to you to accept what I said. I can only say I know their characters better than you.
03/01/2019 9:39 PM

(Icon) MBM Resources (1) - Earning At All Time High While Share Price At All Time Low

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 3 Jan 2019, 7:36 AM


1. Introduction

 

First of all, credit given to forum member commonsense. He was the one that gave us the idea for MBM Resources.

 

MBM Resources distributes Perodua cars, Volvo, Volkswagen, Hino, etc. It owns 22.6% stake in Perodua, which is its most valuable and profitable asset (the remaining 38%, 25%, 10% and 5% of Perdoua is owned by UMW, Daihatsu, PNB and Mitsui respectively).

 

MBM Resources also manufactures a portfolio of auto parts (airbags, safety belts, alloy wheels, etc). This division used to be quite profitable before 2015 but now merely breaks even.

 

MBM Resources used to trade as high as RM3.50 back in 2014. However, in the recent few years, it has not done well. So share price has come down to the current RM2.00 plus.

 

Based on 391 mil shares and RM2.20, market cap is approximately RM864 mil.

 

 

Auto stocks had been out of favour in past few years. So, even after MBM Resources has turned around in the recent few quarters, nobody notices it.

 

Another possible factor is the perception that recent strong quarter was due to the zero GST from 1 June until 31 August 2018, and hence is not sustainable (which is not the case, please refer to next section).    

 

 

2. Historical Profitability

 

MBM Resources' financial year end is December.

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) MBM Resources has not done well from Q1 to Q3 of FY2017.

 

In Q4 of FY2017, the group has turned around. Its 22.6% stake in Perodua reported a 50% jump in earning from RM25 mil to RM37 mil. 

 

However, in that particular quarter, the group undertook kitchen sinking exercise involving RM177 mil impairment of its Hirotako stake (seat belt manufacturing) and RM62 mil impairment of certain plants and equipment. As a result, the group reported a loss of RM151 mil.

 

(b) In Q1 of FY2018, MBM Resources reported a 30% jump in gross profit from RM23 mil to RM30 mil. One contributor was auto parts manufacturing division which saw losses narrowed from approximately RM5 mil per quarter to RM3 mil per quarter.

 

Its 22.6% stake in Perodua continued its strong profitability of RM37 mil.  

 

The group reported net profit of RM32 mil.

 

The last time MBM Resources has done so well was back in June 2015.

 

Market didn't notice.

 

 

(c) The Group continued to do well in Q2 of FY2018. 22.6% Perodua stake reported RM39 mil net profit.

 

Overall group profitability was RM34 mil.

 

Market still didn't notice.

 

(d) In Q3 of FY2018, the group continued its strong performance. 22.6% Perodua stake contributed RM39 mil. Overall group profitability was RM37 mil.

 

Market yawned. Everybody believed that "It must be due to the zero GST which pushed up sales. In coming Q4 of FY2018, you can expect the numbers to plummet".

 

Did the zero GST really cause Q3 earnings to spike ? Nope. Perodua encountered some production problems in the month of September 2018. As a result, its sales in Q3 actually dropped from 61,530 units in previous quarter to 51,105 units, despite the zero GST. 

 

In other words, its strong Q3 has got nothing to do with the zero GST.

 

 

3. What To Expect For The Coming Quarters ?

 

The coming Q4 quarter is expected to be good because Perodua car sales had been strong (despite the introduction of SST). Pease refer to the green cells.

 

 

Almost all analysts expect the group to continue to do well in FY2019 and beyond. Please refer below.

 

(Source : Affin Hwang report dated 14 December 2018)

 

(Source : MIDF report dated 23 November 2018)

 

(Source : Kenanga report dated 23 November 2018)

 

(Source : Maybank report dated 23 November 2018)

 

(Source : HLIB report dated 23 November 2018)

 

(Source : AmInvestment Bank report dated 23 November 2018) 

 

(Source : Rakuten report dated 8 October 2018)

 

The above analyst reports are available in i3's MBM Resources webpage.

 

Labels: MBMR
  5 people like this.
 
abang_misai Great stock icon
03/01/2019 8:12 AM
Beza 4.5 cents annual div lah. In time like this (bearish), if you get stock with RM2.21, ou loss. Better put into fixed deposit. So you bet lah!
03/01/2019 8:20 AM
Flintstones MBM is another forever undervalued company. Sometimes you got to think why the undervaluation persists. Is it because of its business? Is it because of its holding company status? Is it because of the illiquidity discount? Plenty of factors to ponder at. CCB who one time had a 49% stake in mercedes benz malaysia was completely ignored by the market too. My theory is that fund managers tend to discount associate stake in car manufacturers and prefer to value companies with car manufacturing/dealership as their core business. That is why BAuto, Sime are valued at a premium
03/01/2019 8:40 AM
Icon8888 most of the points you mentioned above sound correct but are indeed text book theory

but I lazy to argue as it will anger you (somebody who has high regard for himself)
03/01/2019 8:57 AM
03/01/2019 10:12 AM
Icon8888 Seriously, newbies might be awed by your arguments above

But seasoned investors will immediately spot the weaknesses
03/01/2019 12:07 PM
lazycat Icon8888, only u and i pick mbmr in tkw competition, u max it at 30% while i only 20% hehe
03/01/2019 12:15 PM
Icon8888 Yes. It is my pleasure to venture with a lazycat
03/01/2019 12:17 PM
lazycat why u pick ytlp and jaks?
03/01/2019 12:21 PM
Icon8888 Of course you already know why I pick Jaks . I wrote so many articles already
03/01/2019 12:36 PM
Icon8888 But What do you think of ytlp ?
03/01/2019 12:36 PM
paperplane Hehe. Aruz oh. Ok mah. 70k
03/01/2019 12:38 PM
lazycat u should know better than me since u the 1 that pick it?
mmm.. yes4g is a failed venture , singapore utilities business can't earn money , malaysia 2 power plant already expired , only wess3x water is profitable , jordan and indonesia power plant i dono, din't follow up

there better investment i can make else where, ytlp i don't like
03/01/2019 12:40 PM
godhand not interested in automobile industry. feel like it will get disrupted very easily . especially component manufacturing company. The only real money making machine is their stake in perodua.
03/01/2019 12:50 PM
Icon8888 This lazycat not really lazy

Did a lot of homework

Most of he points correct also

As for why I bought, because I think no deal brexit unlikely happens. So I bought a bit. It has come down quite a lot afterall


u should know better than me since u the 1 that pick it?
mmm.. yes4g is a failed venture , singapore utilities business can't earn money , malaysia 2 power plant already expired , only wess3x water is profitable , jordan and indonesia power plant i dono, din't follow up

there better investment i can make else where, ytlp i don't like
03/01/2019 1:13 PM
Icon8888 Yes. It is entirely a Perodua story


Posted by godhand > Jan 3, 2019 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

not interested in automobile industry. feel like it will get disrupted very easily . especially component manufacturing company. The only real money making machine is their stake in perodua.
03/01/2019 1:14 PM
qqq3 y Flintstones > Jan 3, 2019 08:40 AM | Report Abuse

MBM is another forever undervalued company. Sometimes you got to think why the undervaluation persists. Is it because of its business? Is it because of its holding company status? Is it because of the illiquidity discount? Plenty of factors to ponder at. CCB who one time had a 49% stake in mercedes benz malaysia was completely ignored by the market too. My theory is that fund managers tend to discount associate stake in car manufacturers and prefer to value companies with car manufacturing/dealership as their core business. That is why BAuto, Sime are valued at a premium
=========


that goes to the core of the issue....

associate businesses...got earnings....(accounting profits only) but no control and no cash flows.....nevermind...MBM got takeover play......
03/01/2019 1:14 PM
Icon8888 Same as flinstone, qqq3's above arguments are full of holes also

But being the one that nominate qqq3 as one of the most argumentative person in i3, I better keep my opinion to myself

Not interested in engaging in endless debates and spoil our budding friendship
03/01/2019 1:28 PM
valuelurker MBMR - 20% stake in Perodua new Aruz Deras and Myvi

UMW - new Toyota godcar

Pecca - new Perodua, new Toyota, Nissan (who knows when Proton X70 CKD's in Tanjung Malim...) comes with free 100 mil net cash and 7% dividend yield
03/01/2019 3:30 PM
qqq3 Icon8888 > Jan 3, 2019 01:28 PM | Report Abuse

Same as flinstone, qqq3's above arguments are full of holes also
=====



own operations really do get premiums compared to associate company operations......
03/01/2019 3:39 PM
dusti EPS ...........really?
03/01/2019 3:49 PM
Flintstones Icon8888, I did not rebut your remarks here because I respect you as a long time i3 contributor as opposed to the random commenter. What I want to share is look beyond the numbers and understand why the market undervalue MBMR. Even the recent acquirer made a lowball offer on MBMR which was rejected. There are plenty of profitable associate companies held under holding entity that is undervalued by the market. Anyway, this does not mean MBMR share price will not go up. It may go to RM 3 and I wish you a happy new year!
03/01/2019 3:57 PM
qqq3 as for Jaks and IPP....no worries...IPP got very high dividend payout ratios and Jaks will not suffer similar fate.
03/01/2019 4:04 PM
Choivo Capital Its cheap lah. Was looking at it a month or two back during 3Q.

I dont think the management is any good. They are similarly undervalued business, with much better management.

But 6PE. and roughly half book. FV for me is barely 1.2-1.3bil

Might be worth a 1-3% punt as an NTA. If they ever sold the stake, RM1.5bil for 20% of perodua is possible, and give out the full amount in div.

Would then go up to RM4 or more easily. But so many cheap NTA companies now also haha.
03/01/2019 5:46 PM
Hafid Product stake give dividend enough to come very the dividend
04/01/2019 6:47 AM
Icon8888 Horrible kid.... only know to talk don't know how to listen

Next time your wife will give you hell



Choivo Capital Its cheap lah. Was looking at it a month or two back during 3Q.

I dont think the management is any good. They are similarly undervalued business, with much better management.

But 6PE. and roughly half book. FV for me is barely 1.2-1.3bil

Might be worth a 1-3% punt as an NTA. If they ever sold the stake, RM1.5bil for 20% of perodua is possible, and give out the full amount in div.

Would then go up to RM4 or more easily. But so many cheap NTA companies now also haha.
03/01/2019 17:46
04/01/2019 8:53 AM
lazycat icon8888 , why u 20% 3a?
04/01/2019 8:54 AM
VenFx Maybe his future wife only obey 100% ler.
Never express her own need and feel one, a all times yes wife.

Thats his Destiny lo.
04/01/2019 8:58 AM
Icon8888 this lazycat totally not lazy, always sniffing around for ideas. I like

few reasons :-

(1) it was sold down drastically from 80 sen to 70 sen last minute before stock pick begins. So I opportunistically pick it. True enough, it now rebound to RM0.75, and I buta buta made few percent gain;

(2) it is not so susceptible to economic condition. So if this year economy not so good, it might be less affected; and

(3) tapioca price has come down so profitability should improve

http://www.thaitapiocastarch.org/en/information/statistics/weekly_tapioca_starch_price/2018

(4) of course it is a good company. I have it in my real portfolio. But my cost 80 sen instead of 70 sen. This stock is long term hold for me. I won't sell so easily.




lazycat icon8888 , why u 20% 3a?
04/01/2019 08:54
04/01/2019 9:13 AM
lazycat oic , i introduce u 1 stock , chinwel 5007 , i'm already in , tell me ur view if u free?
04/01/2019 9:25 AM
Icon8888 can you give me your input then I know better where to zoom in

what is the theme ?
04/01/2019 9:39 AM
lazycat everything is going right with the company , i switch from genm to chinwel , i think i'll sleep better haha
04/01/2019 9:42 AM
Icon8888 what is going right ? tell me the details lah, why reinvent the wheel ? let me inspect the wheel instead. that is more efficient
04/01/2019 10:01 AM
stockmanmy by Choivo Capital > Jan 3, 2019 05:46 PM | Report Abuse

Might be worth a 1-3% punt as an NTA
============

don't even bother....1-3% not going to make any difference either way.....no 10%, no need talk
04/01/2019 10:09 AM
stockmanmy don't even bother....1-3% not going to make any difference either way.....no 10%, no need talk...successful investors should have somme at least 20%...


no point like calvin got 5% of cash in market spread over 50 stocks.
04/01/2019 10:11 AM

(Icon) 2019 Might Surprise On The Upside

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 1 Jan 2019, 7:41 PM


1. Trump Has Been Right About The Trade War

 

I consider myself a Panda Hugger. But in the latest trade war between US and China, I found myself siding with the Americans.

 

How come ? 

 

Because the Americans are correct, China's Made in China 2025 is a huge threat to global prosperity. According to that industrial masterplan, between now and 2025, China will be investing multiple hundreds of billions in several high tech industries. 

 

Take semiconductor as an example : that will add huge capacity to the industry and drag down prices for memory chips and other semiconductor components. It will have huge adverse impact on Western companies.

 

Guess who is part of the supply chain ? Yes, Malaysia.

 

If Made in China 2025 materialises as planned, Intel, Nvidia, and many other companies might need to scale down their operation in Malaysia and other countries. Because the Chinese will be buying less from them.

 

Our Inari ? JHM ? Elsoft ? Unisem ? MPI ? They will all be in trouble.   

 

Now you see why I say it is a threat to global prosperity.

 

 

2. From Incredulity To Acceptance

 

In confronting China, the Americans demanded several changes be made to the trading relationship :-

(a) eliminates the trade deficit;

(b) opens up China's market; and

(c) stops Made in China 2025.

 

The first two conditions are not impossible to meet, but the third one caught the Chinese by surprise. "How outrageous ! What makes the Americans think that they have the right to tell us what we can or cannot do with our own industrial policy ? That is our sovereign right !".

 

The initial reaction was incredulity, anger and defiance. However, as they engaged more with the Americans, they seemed to gradually understand that their counterpart's stance is not that unreasonable afterall. If the Americans don't act now, their high tech industries might be oliterated in the coming decade. It is an existential threat. Who can blame them for complaining ?

 

Due to this new insight, the Chinese have become much more flexible and accomodative. For example, in this article dated 14 December 2018, China's state-linked Gobal Times acknowledged that there is a need to coordinate the country's industrial policy with other countries.

 

 

This paradigm shift is probably the reason why the two sides are able to make some progress over past few weeks. It is now possible that a deal will ultimately be struck and things will go back to normal.

 

Different people has different view. For me, the Trade War is the biggest threat to the global economy and equity market in 2019. With that out of the way, there is a chance that equity will perform reasonably well in 2019, especially now that so many stocks are trading at such depressed level.

 

2019 might surprise on the upside.

  4 people like this.
 
setia2u Cheers ICON8888! Good bye 2018 and welcome to a very Happy New Year 2019, welcome to a profitable new year.
01/01/2019 7:52 PM
kenacon Icon, have you taken you medicine? You must be unstable after losing over 50% in Jaks
01/01/2019 8:12 PM
tolkkock Icon, take you medication
01/01/2019 8:15 PM
Delusional Icon888, the same fellow who promote Jaks at 1.20? Now Jaks how much? All his stocks masok longkang
01/01/2019 8:20 PM
Trump He picked penny stocks last year, from 0.100 to 0.200, think will win no.1.
01/01/2019 8:31 PM
qqq3 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/188428.jsp
01/01/2019 8:50 PM
abang_misai thank you icon8888 sifu.
01/01/2019 9:13 PM
qqq3 icon

We have in the US, a President who is a guy who is anti facts and a mafia goon......how can that be good for anybody, including USA ...or has any thing of permanent value?
01/01/2019 9:20 PM
Icon8888 If you see beyond the erratic behaviours, most of the things he does are quite rational
01/01/2019 9:28 PM
Icon8888 For US
01/01/2019 9:28 PM
qqq3 Icon8888 > Jan 1, 2019 09:28 PM | Report Abuse

If you see beyond the erratic behaviours, most of the things he does are quite rational
===========

u can say thing for all mafia dons and of Najib too.......
01/01/2019 9:35 PM
Icon8888 Never mind...
01/01/2019 9:35 PM
qqq3 Icon8888 > Jan 1, 2019 09:28 PM | Report Abuse

If you see beyond the erratic behaviours, most of the things he does are quite rational
===========

u can say same thing for all mafia dons and of Najib too.......

Trump is not an academic , his solutions appeal to basic instincts ...the final cost will greatly exceed any possible benefits.
01/01/2019 9:37 PM
Icon8888 We should have a competition of top 10 most argumentative people in i3

I nominate three : CharlesT , Cute Jon and qqq3
01/01/2019 9:39 PM
qqq3 i3 ...good for what? stock market up cheer la.....
01/01/2019 9:41 PM
CharlesT Koon should hv voted me few years ago....lol
01/01/2019 9:44 PM
shortinvestor77 I support Icon this time. Not all of our views are always right. But I believe yes this time. So let's wait and see.
01/01/2019 10:07 PM
abang_misai Yes! That's way we want. All the losers now become good friends and stop attacking one another.
01/01/2019 10:09 PM
moolala On face value they may say cooperate, but behind the back they are cranking up the machinery to overtake US
01/01/2019 11:02 PM
qqq3 Kidnapping Hua wei girl is barbaric.....
01/01/2019 11:28 PM
i3lurker you want her for yourself only?

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 1, 2019 11:28 PM | Report Abuse
Kidnapping Hua wei girl is barbaric.....
01/01/2019 11:29 PM
qqq3 maybe arrange my children to meet hers.....
01/01/2019 11:33 PM
supersaiyan3 China's State-owned Enterprise has free land, free technology to compete with US corporations. This is what Trump said its unfair and want to correct.

Also, in the early days, individuals can take government research results to business for free. That's how PUC, Haier, Hainan Airways, Huawei etc got big.

The China's Chinese are just doing things in a different way. That's why they can never reach a deal with the US government.
01/01/2019 11:50 PM
qqq3 in 20 years, we don't need America and they can have 10 Trumps...no one cares.....
01/01/2019 11:58 PM
qqq3 ever considered? what ever China do is within international laws within WTO rules and if there are issues , lets bring the issues.....
02/01/2019 12:10 AM
KLCI King I like the idea of the competition.
On the side note, I found that Icon has changed notably, very calm & cool.

Icon8888 We should have a competition of top 10 most argumentative people in i3
I nominate three : CharlesT , Cute Jon and qqq3
01/01/2019 21:39
02/01/2019 12:21 AM
KLCI King I hope what you said will become reality, back to normal & possible upside in 2019.
02/01/2019 12:22 AM
qqq3 markets live on hope....everyday.....
02/01/2019 12:29 AM
speakup ya gah?
02/01/2019 7:30 AM
3iii >>>(Icon) 2019 Might Surprise On The Upside
Author: Icon8888 Publish date: Tue, 1 Jan 2019, 07:41 PM<<<


The smarter investors focus on the business of the companies.

Don't waste time predicting the market.
02/01/2019 7:57 AM
lextcs the demise and rise of any world's super power is a natural thing. This history has taught us. America's seat at the top has been overly extended. They have overstayed their welcome. Happy new year folks.
02/01/2019 9:22 AM
Up_down Chinaman is being too greedy. Their business model is seen rather scarely to many people. They would go for extreme to achieve their goals as no religion to them back. '一條龍" business strategy is notoriously in eliminating the survival of others. State enterprises are being subsidised heavily to eliminate competitors and deploying new technologies concur another at whatever means. Being the 2nd largest economy in the world, CCP is instilling boycott technic to their own people punishing non local brands when something happens against their political wills. No way for US to stop them once they have achieved made in China 2025.
02/01/2019 9:58 AM
qqq3 Posted by Up_down > Jan 2, 2019 09:58 AM | Report Abuse

Chinaman is being too greedy.
=======

u should look at the track record of Americans before writing nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IfAzGKaSkA
02/01/2019 10:05 AM
Choivo Capital Yeap, i agree on this one.
02/01/2019 10:10 AM
tswear Haha, US is a selfish hypocrite. For (c), Uncle Sam should also blame himself.

US banned Intel from selling supercomputer chips to China after the latter built the fastest supercomputer in 2013. Then China are forced to design their own chips for their supercomputer, which was fastest from 2016 until Oct 2018 (read TOP500). US banned China from joining international space station program. So China are forced to build their own space station.

US media demonized Asia countries on pollution. But in fact, US is the biggest CO2 emissions country based on per capita, 2x times of China, 10x times of India. US exports waste to poor countries in Asia, withdrew from Paris Agreement, great power comes less responsibility.
02/01/2019 1:26 PM
Up_down Trump is standing on the interest of Americans to start demanding a ‘fair’ deal with China. If China is really able live independently from US, then they can simply ignore (lcly) Trump. No matter we like US or not, we have to face the reality. See what would happen to China and US economy in next 6 months.
02/01/2019 7:41 PM
speakup https://thecoverage.my/news/popular-thai-psychic-nostradamus-fortune-teller-navaracha-pinitlokakorn-prai-predicted-mahathir-will-serious-health-problem-june-2019-next-pm-not-anwar-ibrahim/
03/01/2019 4:44 PM

Jaks Resources (8) - Uncle Koon's Information Inaccurate

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 13 Dec 2018, 6:29 AM


In his 10 December 2018 article, Uncle Koon mentioned the following :-

 

"As you know the company has a lot of unsold properties and under the current depressed market condition, it will not be able to sell its properties."

 

His concern is that this will drag the Group into losses for many years to come.

 

This is different from what the Company has been disclosing in its previous documents. For example, in FY2017 annual report, the Company said the following :

 

 

As shown above, Pacific Star has already been 83% sold as at April 2018 (when the FY2017 annual report was released). And it was the LAST property project undertaken by the Company.

 

17% unsold properties equals RM187 mil. As Jaks owns 50% of its property division, the net unsold amount is hence RM93.5 mil. I think it is a bit of an exaggeration to say that the Group has " a lot of " unsold properties until it will drag the Group into losses over next few years.

 

The Company disclosed similar information in its Rights Issue Prospectus dated 21 November 2018. 

 

 

Based on the above information, my understanding is that the Group no longer has much exposure to the depressed local property industry, apart from losses related to operation of Evolve Concept Mall at approximately RM30 mil per annum and Pacific Star LADs, which should end by mid 2019 following completion of the project. Jaks has 50% exposure to these two items.

Labels: JAKS
  2 people like this.
 
pussycats Yahoo
Icon888, can believe kah jaks management words, after so many putar alam from management.
13/12/2018 6:44 AM
pussycats I will buy all in if jaks stop constructions works.
Yahooooo.

Wait first,,, can believe kah jaks words???
13/12/2018 6:47 AM
SarifahSelinder Koon nampak x berapa tahu abt bisnes Jaks

Mcm x peduli
13/12/2018 7:38 AM
SarifahSelinder SarifahSelinder Even if 50% subscribed maknanya ada mastermind 

Nyata Andy ada apply excess a lot 

Harga mother kan recover immediately 

Sebab this show Andy thinks Jaks the best very bright future 

Andy jz crazy abt IPP tu 

Andy nak control Jaks even more

13/12/2018 07:36
13/12/2018 7:38 AM
i3lurker yawn!

of course you are right coz you are so smart.

please proceed to takeover the company.

sell everything you own to buy, its a once in a lifetime opportunity.

This will multiply your wealth by 100 times or more.
13/12/2018 7:54 AM
pussycats Later ... Susah nak cakap...

We just wait and see...
13/12/2018 7:54 AM
qqq3 any project 83% sold should be viable...ok....$ 300 million unbilled sales will also create cashflows.

$ 50 million property development cost in the Balance Sheet....this represents the 17% unsold unit , and the balance in the development account from the 83% sold. LAD will expire when they are delivered.

unbilled sales/total sales , 329/915 or 65% completed as at 2017.

PDC balance of $ 50 million vs $ 300 million unbilled sales should not create a problem....may even give u positive surprise.
13/12/2018 8:52 AM
qqq3 investment in JV $ 120 million...what is that? probably have to take into account when the whole thing is finalised.
13/12/2018 8:58 AM
qqq3 the bleeding from LAD stops...only Evolve Mall is left.....Accounting losses but minus depreciation, cashflow impact should be minimum.
13/12/2018 9:00 AM
qqq3 starting next year...what u have is what u really wanted, a Company with EPCC profits from Vietnam and then 30% of an IPP.

patient la...Patience is a virtue.

stock market....they call it greater fool theory.....u either buy a share thinking they are greater fools out there.....or u sell a share thinking there are greater fools out there who couldn't see a gem and fear of the unknown., together with recency bias.

bear market, what to do? everybody fears some thing.
13/12/2018 9:07 AM
ks55 Blog: Where have all the value investors gone? kcchongnz

Nov 22, 2018 06:22 PM | Report Abuse

To me Jaks worth only 40 sen
Sendai even worse, can consider only below 30 sen
13/12/2018 9:12 AM
qqq3 y ks55 > Dec 13, 2018 09:12 AM | Report Abuse

To me Jaks worth only 40 sen
==========

for traders, that is a huge difference....but for genuine investors, and for those caught high...it really doesn't make any difference any more
13/12/2018 9:18 AM
supersaiyan3 Ok, ok. What's the name of the stock again?
13/12/2018 9:42 AM
qqq3 in the two years, the company successfully raised $ 250 milion.....

and another $ 70 million from the warrants ?
13/12/2018 9:48 AM
Icon8888 supersaiyan was the one that gave me a long lecture when I called Airasia buy at RM1.60

he said I was stupid and naive
13/12/2018 9:54 AM
qqq3 Payables $ 800 million..what is that?

a portion is Vietnam related. no cash flow implications. It will be off set against other accounts later.
13/12/2018 10:10 AM
i3Value Icon, good analytical thoughts
13/12/2018 12:14 PM
Zhuge_Liang Will continue to lose money until 2020 before completion of Vietnam Power plant.
No cash flow for next 2 years.

Can Vietnam Power Plant complete in time ?
Do you think it is better to wait until Vietnam Power Plant is completed before you invest ?
Invest in stock market, there is no if but must be sure.

Please note that all old projects in Malaysia secured by Jaks, if I am not mistaken all lost money.
Do not know on the new project on the highway.
13/12/2018 12:25 PM
billionn Maybe they two try to put up an act together? Sigh! Who knows?
13/12/2018 2:41 PM
i3lurker you can see example in the movies, 2 enemies just for show to generate business, actually best friends since childhood. Meet at nite to split profits
============================================================
billionn Maybe they two try to put up an act together? Sigh! Who knows?
13/12/2018 14:41
13/12/2018 5:25 PM
Alex™ Icon sifu call buy? All in!!!!
13/12/2018 6:47 PM
value88 It is dangerous to live in denial. We need acceptance to move on in life.
13/12/2018 7:40 PM
CharlesT Are u making fun on yr master now?
13/12/2018 7:43 PM
qqq3 Zhuge_Liang > Dec 13, 2018 12:25 PM | Report Abuse

No cash flow for next 2 years.
==============



woah...bear market people so creative in being negative....

that is what Wallen the Bufalo teaches u?

no cashflow until 2020 so must sell......

no cashfow maybe, but tonnes of EPCC earnings from Vietnam...its called investments......

$ 300 m in net current assets....no cash flow also can full stomach.


$ 300 million in unbilled sales...that is cashflow.....


bear markets makes people stupid

bull markets also make people stupid, just a different kind of stupidity.
13/12/2018 7:47 PM
qqq3 charles...when things are at bear market prices, there is nothing to fear except bankruptcies......
13/12/2018 7:57 PM
Icon8888 Rights undersubscribed. So what ? Life goes on !
14/12/2018 7:01 AM
Icon8888 As Long as you keep your exposure small, how bad can it be ?

I am not exiting
14/12/2018 7:02 AM
Icon8888 After all Ang and friends got huge chunk of warrants . Don't tell me they wouldn't want to prosper through capital gain
14/12/2018 7:03 AM
Icon8888 Maintain Buy call for Jaks WA

At this depressed level, risk vs reward is favourable

No risk no gain

Just remember to keep exposure small he he
14/12/2018 7:05 AM
i3lurker a Buy Call for Jaks at 45.5 sen is not too brain damaged. I can accept that based on sum of parts valuation and risked assessed future PE.

a Buy call for Jaks-Wa when 25 sen when mother is trading at 45.5 sen is too way deviant to be acceptable to society. A buy call for Jaks-Wa at 5 sen is more reasonable.

You should meditate more.
14/12/2018 7:20 AM
CharlesT Having said so. I think the downside risk of mother is rather limited now. Even the most bullish man in JAKS also scare oredi
14/12/2018 8:37 AM
Icon8888 thanks brother CharlesT

good to know that you and I are friends despite occasional disagreement
14/12/2018 8:39 AM
Icon8888 it is just my way of managing absolute risk

you don't need to agree with me



i3lurker a Buy Call for Jaks at 45.5 sen is not too brain damaged. I can accept that based on sum of parts valuation and risked assessed future PE.

a Buy call for Jaks-Wa when 25 sen when mother is trading at 45.5 sen is too way deviant to be acceptable to society. A buy call for Jaks-Wa at 5 sen is more reasonable.

You should meditate more.
14/12/2018 8:45 AM
qqq3 Jaks will be above $ 1 given enough time.....barring major accidents.
14/12/2018 9:18 AM
qqq3 AA is not too disappointed warrants under subscribed....Jaks will not live or die because of the $ 50 million short fall.

People forget, this is not a ACE counter...this is a company with shareholder funds of $ 800 million.
14/12/2018 9:21 AM
Icon8888 the only thing I don't like is that Uncle Koon is out

I mentioned before that I feel more comfortable if he is in there as he can help to monitor the 10% shareholding CEO (LOL)

I always feel uncomfortable with the Boss holding so little as they might not treat the PLC well.

but one thing positive is that through this latest rights issue, Ang and friends subscribed for more than 150 mil warrants. If they manage well and push up Jaks price, they can be handsomely rewarded also

hope this helps to mitigate the issue a bit
14/12/2018 10:08 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Brilliant article icon888 I like the analysis. May I ask a small question, I have trouble adding a label of the stock to my blog. May I learn from you how to do it?
29/01/2019 8:55 PM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (7) - Jaks WB Is My 2019 Sailang Stock

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 8 Dec 2018, 12:08 PM


1. Stock of The Year

 

In March 2016, I nominated Air Asia at RM1.66 as the Sailang Stock for 2016.

In July 2017, I nominated Hengyuan at RM6.90 as the Sailang Stock for 2017.

In April 2018, I nominated Muda Holdings at RM2.20 as the Sailang Stock for 2018.

 
Air Asia and Hengyuan has subsequently done well (if you didn't sell Hengyuan at closed to RM20, that is not my fault).
 
 
Muda has a bad time after my call, dropping to as low as RM1.60 in October 2018. But now it is trading at around RM2.10. Still not profitable, but down only about 5%. I consider that to be not bad as 2018 turned out to be a lousy year and most people's portfolio shrank more than that.  
 
 
We have yet to enter 2019, but opportunity has presented itself. So I would like to make an earlier move by nominating soon to be listed Jaks-WB (on 20 December 2018) as 2019 Stock of The Year.
 
 
 
 
2. My 2019 Blue Eye Boy
 
 
Before we look at Jaks-WB, let's first look at Jaks. Jaks has 550 mil shares outstanding. Based on current price of RM0.50, its market cap is RM275 mil.
 
(klsei3investor's Jaks webpage mistakenly calculated Jaks' market cap as RM400 mil based on wrong number of shares of 819 mil)
 
 
First of all, what has gone wrong in latest quarter ended September 2018 ? Why did it report losses of RM2 mil ? The main culprit is actually slower billing of Vietnam construction project. In previous quarters, the project generated revenue of RM93 mil and RM64 mil respectively. Its PBT (and hence net profit, since it is tax free) was RM25 mil and RM17 mil respectively (please refer to table below).
 
 
(Source : my 29 August 2018 Jaks article)
 
 
However, in latest September 2018 quarter, Vietnam revenue dropped to RM33 mil. Its net profit also dropped to RM7 mil. Plus small increase in property division losses, the group reported net loss of RM2 mil.
 
 
How will Jaks fare in FY2019 ?
 
 
As shown in table above, the Vietnam project's net margin was 27% in March and June quarters. However, it has dropped to 22% in latest quarter (reason not provided by company). Let's just be conservative and apply this latest profit margin going forward. The Vietnam project still has RM1.3 billion revenue to be booked in. This should lead to RM286 mil net profit.
 
 
Since next quarter will begin in October 2018 and the Vietnam power plant is targeted to be completed by mid 2020, there is 21 months ahead of us, equivalent to 1.75 years. Divide RM286 mil by 1.75 years, we arrive at net profit of RM163 mil per annum. 
 
 
The property division incurred loss of RM17.5 mil in this latest quarter, out of which RM12 mil is LAD while RM6 mil is Evolve Mall operating loss. According to analysts, the Pacific Star project is targeted to be completed by mid 2019, which will eliminate the LAD. However, to be conservative, let's just assume LAD drags on until end 2019. As such, property division will report losses of RM70 mil (being RM17.5 mil annualised). Since Jaks owns 50%, the amount to be booked in will be RM35 mil.
 
 
In latest quarter, Jaks' interest expenses had declined from previously RM7 mil to RM4.6 mil. Multiplied that by 4, pro forma FY2019 interest expense will be RM18 mil.
 
 
Let's not forget the RM50 mil Bank Guarantee to be released to Star Media. Assuming Jaks loses the court case, total to be booked in by Jaks will be RM25 mil.  
 
 
Putting all the above figures together, I expect Jaks to report net profit of RM85 mil in FY2019 (being RM163 mil less RM35 mil less RM18 mil less RM25 mil).
 
 
Based on 550 mil shares, EPS should be 15 sen. 
 
 
Applying a PER of 10 times, my target price for the stock will be RM1.50.
 
 
The fair value of the Warrants will be RM1.50 less RM0.64 (exercise price) = RM0.86.
 
 
Based on listing price of RM0.25, potential gain of 250% over next twelve months.
 
 
That is why I nominate it as my favorite stock for 2019.
 
 
(Dear readers, please don't really sailang. Sailang is merely a term used by me to communicate my fondness for a particular stock).  
 
 
 
 
3. How About 2020 and Beyond ?
 
 
The power plant will be completed by mid 2020. How much will it contribute to Jaks ?
 
 
Instead of making all kind of assumptions, or use sophisticated valuation methodologies such as Enterprise Value, DCF, ROIC, etc, I just make comparison with a neighbouring project.
 
 
You guess it right, MFCB's Don Sahong hydroelectric power project in Laos.
 
 
I think they are comparable in terms of profitability because of the following :
 
(a) operate in same region (Laos vs. Vietnam) and hence should enjoy similar economics;
 
(b) similar capacity (Don Sahong 260 MW, Jaks' 30% of 1,200 MW = 360 MW);
 
(c) similar construction cost (Don Sahong RM2 bil divided by 260 MW = RM7.7 mil per MW. Jaks Vietnam project RM7.8 bil divided by 1,200 MW = RM6.5 mil per MW)
 
 
According to analysts, MFCB is expected to report RM200 mil net profit in FY2020 (after project completed), the bulk of which will be from Don Sahong.
 
 
 
 
(Source : Public Investment Bank report dated 28 November 2018)
 
 
 
(Source : Maybank Investment Bank report dated 27 November 2018)
 
 
As Jaks' effective capacity is even bigger than Don Sahong (360 MW vs. 260 MW), it should generate more profit.
 
 
However, due to lack of actual information for Jaks' project, I would rather err on the conservative side. All I Am Predicting Is That After Factoring In Losses of All Other Divisions and Interest Expenses, Jaks Should Be Able To Maintain Its Net Profit in FY2020 At RM85 mil.
 
 
I believe the above is a fairly reasonable prediction.
 
 
Meaning my target price of RM1.50 is equally good going into FY2020.
 
 
Concluding Remarks : Jaks-WB is a good buy at RM0.25.
 
Labels: JAKS
  2 people like this.
 
qqq3 can...company can wait 6 months...not that bad one....still got $ 130 million cash in bank.....net current assets in excess of $ 300 million.....and $ 50 million already set aside in FD ( not included in $ 130 million above ).....look at the latest result.
10/12/2018 12:47 AM
qqq3 the key saving point is they managed to raise more than $ 200 million in last 12 momths.
10/12/2018 12:48 AM
qqq3 like someone says...this company looks stronger than 12 months ago....

how come $ 1.50 can buy , 50 sen cannot buy?

I like that.
10/12/2018 12:50 AM
i3lurker BG before issue already secured by banks in conjunction with other facilities.

Once security used up may need topping up another RM50 million as security coz facilities tied up in the ST loans. There will be a security shortfall of RM50 million wif of BG claim.

But as an accountant, you already knew that.
10/12/2018 12:51 AM
i3lurker thats USD50 million? is that enough?

Its like saying that manage to raise RM50,000 in last 12 months is good news to buy a RM1,000,000.00 property.

If you keep saying illogical things like that, you will invite more rabid people like sslee to spew profanities at you.

===============================
Posted by qqq3 > Dec 10, 2018 12:48 AM | Report Abuse
the key saving point is they managed to raise more than $ 200 million in last 12 momths.
10/12/2018 12:56 AM
qqq3 go look at the latest results...its all there in the notes....its RM 50 million....not USD 50 million.
10/12/2018 12:59 AM
qqq3 Posted by qqq3 > Dec 10, 2018 12:59 AM | Report Abuse X

go look at the latest results...its all there in the notes and in the cash flow statement....its RM 50 million....not USD 50 million
10/12/2018 1:04 AM
i3lurker sometimes raider is correct.

Joseph Kennedy was a stock market operator and his descendants suffered terrible curses.

========================================
stockraider To sum up on Jaks exercise:

Jaks is a stock selected by KYY to goreng with him as the operator with intention to make big monies but it turnout a big failure due to poor stock fundamental and poor mkt condition.

LESSON LEARN ' U CANNOT CHEAT PEOPLE ALL THE TIME'
09/12/2018 12:39
10/12/2018 1:05 AM
qqq3 kyy never intended to cheat any one...he was bullish....market collapsed he lost big time...that is the whole story....

well....I buy at 50 sen...but I small time trader, not big time like KYY.

and....I like people who fight latest war....but people like French Generals fight the last war.
10/12/2018 1:17 AM
i3lurker French generals are always first class. They lost previous wars entirely due to economic commitments to wars. The Germans just spend too much money on their armed forces. Current French forces are well armed.

If you insult the French, rabid people like sslee will spew profanities at you.

btw I used to speak french coz studied in university.
=======================================================
Posted by qqq3 > Dec 10, 2018 01:17 AM | Report Abuse
kyy never intended to cheat any one...he was bullish....market collapsed he lost big time...that is the whole story....

well....I buy at 50 sen...but I small time trader, not big time like KYY.

and....I like people who fight latest war....but people like French Generals fight the last war.
10/12/2018 1:36 AM
Sslee Dear i3lurker,
Thank you for reminding me of my profanities, I did not mean to offend anyone in i3 community except one. I subscribe to the view/believe/theory:
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” -Edmund Burke.
“To sin by silence when they should protest makes cowards of men" -Abraham Lincoln.
“I must be cruel only to be kind. Thus bad begins and worse remains behind” -Hamlet
I had already said what I needed to say and it’s behind me now. What I wish is for i3 develop into a community of Redwood forest. I thank you for your contribution for making that redwood community a step closer.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/185821.jsp

Thank you
10/12/2018 8:04 AM
qqq3 ss

lets see how long u can hide your ignorance under all those thank yous......

by me..u need to see a brain doctor.
10/12/2018 11:07 AM
KLCI King Some people really have times & talk non stop
10/12/2018 11:09 AM
qqq3 why not?
10/12/2018 11:22 AM
GoldenShares JAKS - My Advice - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Mon, 10 Dec 2018, 12:36 PM


Since I have sold all our shares, many people asked me why I sold all our shares and should they buy it at 50 sen per share.

As I said, forced selling was a blessing in disguise. I was forced to sell at much higher prices in comparison with the current price of 50 sen per share.

I have extracted the following numbers from its latest quarter result:

Short term bank borrowing Rm 99.38 million

Bank over draft Rm 18.214 million

Long term borrowings Rm 323.978 million

Total Rm 440.978 million

Trade & other payables Rm 840.1 million

Total Rm 1,281 million

Total issued shares 546 million

Debt per share 1281 divided by 546 = Rm 2.31 per share.

The company is trying get back to some money by selling convertible warrants at 25 sen each with a conversion price of 64 sen per share, totalling 89 sen. Who will buy the warrant?

As you know the company has a lot of unsold properties and under the current depressed market condition, it will not be able to sell its properties. Moreover, Star’s legal claim for non performance and late completion has not been settled.

As a result, interest charges will be amounting in the next few years. The company cannot hide its losses anymore and it has already reported losses in the latest quarter.

I have already admitted my expensive Rm 64 million mistake because I was focusing too much on its power plant in Vietnam and ignored its property and contracting businesses.

It can only report losses in the next few years.

Why should you buy when the company cannot report any profit?
10/12/2018 2:52 PM
hollandking well, at least he is honest about this issue.
10/12/2018 2:54 PM
ks55 Why still want to promote Jaks-WA?
10/12/2018 3:11 PM
ks55 Noble intention?

Is it done in good faith?
10/12/2018 3:11 PM
apolloang toyoink-wb and gpacket-wb cheap cheap for u all no wanna buy why wanna buy jaks-wa? hehe
10/12/2018 3:12 PM
LaoTzeAhSir how about your 5 articles on cresbld. mr icon.why didnt mention?
11/12/2018 12:07 AM
3iii Certain experiences shape the investor and his/her investing philosophies, and nothing better can happen to an investor than to buy a stock that declines.

Your measure as an investor is how your philosophies hold up during turbulent times.
11/12/2018 7:42 AM
qqq3 I am with icon on this one.....

at 50 sen, should put on a bufalo cap...not a traders cap......signs of manipulation of accounts with Vietnam revenue dropping from $ 90 million to $ 60 million to $ 30 million in last 3 quarters.....
11/12/2018 3:12 PM
qqq3 icon...one more reason to be bullish about Jaks....very well hidden....Jaks suppressed the Vietnam revenue....drastic drop in Vietnam revenue to $ 90 million to $ 60 million to $ 30 million last quarter....at first look, last quarter report look disastrous.

$ 42 million loss from property division
$ 56 million profit from construction .Everyone knows Vietnam profit no cash flow.

but only $ 7 million of the $ 56 million is from Vietnam....meaning local construction profit is $ 49 million....I think from Suke.

and $ 20 million from the $ 42 million is LAD.....LAD will end one day.....total LAD todate is $31 million....it is much less than $ 10 million per quarter and this will end one day.....small matter.

On the surface, the results looks disastrous......easy to sell seeing the results.......takes time for people to through and analysis properly...takes time and takes next result which can be enormously good.
11/12/2018 7:25 PM
ks55 Jaks-WA 62.5% under subscribed.
May open at 20 sen, subsequently drop to 10 sen.

Those sailang and sialang follow fake sifus going to holland straight away.

If Jaks mother share is only good for 40 sen, how can WA can be at 25 sen ?

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6005573
13/12/2018 6:54 PM
cpng Run before pasar malam kakies.
Wakaka!
13/12/2018 9:23 PM
qqq3 icon

one more good news for u....

according to accounting rules, companies are supposed to provide for all LAD when it becomes foreseeable....not just up to Sept ....

meaning what? meaning if done properly, total provision of $ 35 million ( $ 20 million last quarter) is all that is needed...it is not apportioned by time. ...meaning also next quarter no need provision.
13/12/2018 9:27 PM
ks55 Why still want to promote Jaks-WA
Noble intention?
Is it done in good faith?
13/12/2018 9:38 PM
Icon8888 Don't be so fixated about my call to buy at 25 Sen

In general I am just saying that Jaks WA sounds like a good buy from risk reward point of view because it has five years to go, Low absolute exposure , Low exercise price and potential upside from Jaks profit growth

It doesn't have to be 25 Sen buy

If it drops at listing to 10 Sen, then my readers should buy at 10 Sen

Simple as that
15/12/2018 5:24 AM
Icon8888 and yes, all my articles are written in good faith
15/12/2018 5:25 AM
Icon8888 Thanks qqq3 for the info
15/12/2018 5:35 AM
3iii >>> Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 15, 2018 05:25 AM | Report Abuse

and yes, all my articles are written in good faith<<<


Altruistic!!!???
15/12/2018 8:23 AM
3iii Trust no one in this forum.

Do your own research and analysis.

Make your own decisions.
15/12/2018 8:24 AM
i3lurker its written in good faith for icon8888 pocket only.

if you have consideration for peoples' good faith pockets, you should think for those who are unable to think for themselves.

A good person with good faith will consider other peoples' risks rather than be so cavalier that if it drops to 10 sen then other people should buy.



Posted by 3iii > Dec 15, 2018 08:23 AM | Report Abuse
>>> Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 15, 2018 05:25 AM | Report Abuse

and yes, all my articles are written in good faith<<<
15/12/2018 8:29 AM
Veron_teo sailang jaks Wa = sailang mother. good luck. as k why why explain, jaks will continue loss money next two years, that's why he exit
15/12/2018 10:05 AM
Icon8888 good faith doesn't mean altruistic

altruistic is a word I don't simply use

anybody who comes to this forum and say he altruistic is lying

but good faith can be true - it just means I have no ill intention to deceive or mislead


3iii >>> Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 15, 2018 05:25 AM | Report Abuse

and yes, all my articles are written in good faith<<<


Altruistic!!!???
15/12/2018 08:23
15/12/2018 10:47 AM
Icon8888 if you are unable to think for yourself, you shouldn't even be here

=============

i3lurker its written in good faith for icon8888 pocket only.

if you have consideration for peoples' good faith pockets, you should think for those who are unable to think for themselves.
15/12/2018 10:49 AM
Icon8888 you impose very high standard on those that contribute ideas here, as though we should baby sit everybody to make sure they do well

preach that to me when one day you can do that



i3lurker

A good person with good faith will consider other peoples' risks rather than be so cavalier that if it drops to 10 sen then other people should buy.
15/12/2018 10:56 AM
Uncle Sam If jaks wa drops from 25c it's very cheap dy.
If it goes to 10c or whatever why not ?
Cheap or not is up to anyone to decide.
Arguing is a waste of time.
Time is money.

I see good risk to reward ratio if wa drops. So I will buy
Cheers
15/12/2018 11:12 AM
qqq3 written in good faith


Icon8888
15240 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 15, 2018 05:35 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks qqq3 for the info
===========

LAD whack every thing now....Vietnam drastic drop in revenue when Director in other sources says 40% completed not the 30% in the accounts ...meaning what?

meaning they wanted to whack every thing down this quarter....and this not even an audited period.

meaning it is not an accident, meaning they have motives, meaning they have strategies.


to the real bufalos...not the fake ones we have here....whether bottom at 45 or bottom at 30 sen.....no difference one.....
15/12/2018 12:51 PM
DK66 What is the point of writing long article when people rather listen to gossips ..... pitty
15/12/2018 1:53 PM
abang_misai Dk, keep it up.
15/12/2018 1:54 PM
ks55 Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 15, 2018 05:25 AM | Report Abuse

and yes, all my articles are written in good faith


=======================================================

Do you really understand the meaning of 'Thing done in good faith'?
I suggest you go and consult your lawyer.

I remembered KYY also mentioned he promote certain share with noble intention AND in GOOD FAITH.
I did comment what is good faith, and I did not agree he did that in Good Faith.

Likewise, promoting Jaks-WA at 25 sen can never be taken as doing thing in good faith............
15/12/2018 9:19 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Dec 15, 2018 12:51 PM | Report Abuse
written in good faith

LAD whack every thing now....Vietnam drastic drop in revenue when Director in other sources says 40% completed not the 30% in the accounts ...meaning what?
meaning they wanted to whack every thing down this quarter....and this not even an audited period.
meaning it is not an accident, meaning they have motives, meaning they have strategies.


So what kind of management is this to play out other shareholders?

I thought in your priority whether to buy a stock, the number one thing is how good is the management?
15/12/2018 9:43 PM
anticonman Meaning Icon8888 is conman? Same like CalvinTanEng?

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 15, 2018 08:29 AM | Report Abuse
its written in good faith for icon8888 pocket only.
if you have consideration for peoples' good faith pockets, you should think for those who are unable to think for themselves.

A good person with good faith will consider other peoples' risks rather than be so cavalier that if it drops to 10 sen then other people should buy.

Posted by 3iii > Dec 15, 2018 08:23 AM | Report Abuse
>>> Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 15, 2018 05:25 AM | Report Abuse

and yes, all my articles are written in good faith<<<
15/12/2018 9:43 PM
qqq3 kcchong

companies have motives, companies have strategies.....even a kid knows that.

want to sue them? can sue them?
15/12/2018 11:22 PM
godhand lol sailang jaks
18/12/2018 10:39 AM
ks55 Promoter going to holland straight away liao.....
20/12/2018 9:02 AM
qqq3 no shame....warrant bot at 25 sen, no lose money is no shame...lesser beings expect listing price to be 10 -15 sen.

people who are very bullish is right to buy warrants.
21/12/2018 5:07 PM
VINZLOW Thank you Icon8888 :)
06/03/2019 11:24 PM
tapdance MFCB's Don Sahong is a hydro which generates substantially better IRR.
11/03/2019 1:44 PM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (6) - Uncle Koon Not The Only One Selling. I Did The Same Thing

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sun, 2 Dec 2018, 4:01 AM


First of all, my apology for writing so soon. I mentioned in my previous article that I will only write again after Jaks turns around. But yesterday Uncle Koon wrote that he has disposed of 20 mil shares. This generated a lot of interest among i3 members. So I am tempted to also chip in. 

 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/184749.jsp

 

Uncle Koon is not the only one selling his Jaks shares. I did the same on 21 November 2018 after the Rights Issue has gone ex. Subsequently on 22 November 2018, after the rights were listed, I bought more at 6 sen. 

 

Note : The yellow areas above are some details I prefer not to disclose (account code, number of shares transacted, etc). 

 

Why did I sell my shares ? Because that was the right thing to do from risk vs. reward point of view ! Let's look at the mathematics.

 

By holding Jaks at 80 sen, my maximum downside risk is 80 sen. But by holding warrants, my maximum downside risk over the next five years is only 25 sen (my rights subscription price).

 

My target price for Jaks is at least RM1.50. If that is achieved, the warrants will register gain of RM0.61, being RM1.50 less RM0.64 exercise price and then less RM0.25 cost of investment (based on conservative assumption of zero conversion premium).

 

If I hold mother shares at RM0.80, my upside is RM0.70 (being RM1.50 less RM0.80).

 

A 25 sen Warrant can give me potential gain of RM0.61 while an 80 sen mother share will give me potential gain of RM0.70. Do you really need to be a genius to figure out that it makes sense to replace mother shares with Warrants ?

 

Note 1 : Since the rights issue is on 1 for 2 basis. To fully replace my mother shares with warrants, I have to buy additional rights from the open market, which I dutifully did so the next day at 6 sen. Meaning my second batch warrants cost is 31 sen. 

 

Note 2 : the mother shares have since dropped to 50 sen. At 25 sen cost, the warrants will have conversion premium of 78%. I see the relatively high premium as academic. I cannot be having all the right things at all the time. The most important thing is still whether Jaks can go up in the future. Rising water lifts all boats.

   

 

Concluding Remarks

 

I started buying Jaks at RM1.17 (as mentioned in my first article).

 

 

Subsequently, I averaged down by buying several more batches. But for sake of simplicity, you can assume my cost is RM1.17. By selling at 80 sen, I incurred a loss of 32%. But Jaks makes up about 15% of my portfolio. So the effective impact is negative 4.8%. Not an insignificant amount, but if I didn't buy Jaks and instead bought some other shares, I might have registered some losses also (in this bearish market). So, as far as I am concerned, my exposure in Jaks is still quite manageable. 

 

Now that I have switched to warrants, my exposure to Jaks has been further scaled down to 4% of my portfolio (being RM0.31 / RM1.17 multiplied by the original 15% exposure). Do I really need to lose sleep over that amount ? The best thing is that if Jaks price goes up, I have the exposure to enjoy the upside. 

 

For me, as long as you manage your risk properly, it is ok to be a bit adventurous.  No pain no gain.

Labels: JAKS
  Be the first to like this.
 
CharlesT Then u reduce yr total exposure in JAKS...OK loh

The main issue now is whether Koon will continute to sell mother and whether he subscribes the WA at 0.25
03/12/2018 8:48 AM
CharlesT If mother stays at this level likely Wa to open below 0.20
03/12/2018 8:49 AM
CharlesT So buying mother JAKS now at 0.50 assuming koon has stop selling will be safer than buying the Wa at 0.25.....
03/12/2018 8:50 AM
Icon8888 To be honest, I don't think your opinion below is wrong. But neither am I too excited about it. I just like the warrants at 25 sen so that when Vietnam's war ship bombarded China oil rig (because Trump guarantee to the Vietcong that it is ok to do so) , I only have 25 sen to lose, not 50 sen

of course I know WA is expensive from conversion premium point of view, but I can live with this temporary anomaly

because I think it is worth RM1.80 ultimately



Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 08:46 AM | Report Abuse

Anyway I think JAKS at 0.50 shall have limited downside by now...should bet on mother io WA at 0.25 at this level
03/12/2018 8:51 AM
DK66 Sarifah, Mr koon did not screw up the warrant. If he abandons his warrant, who benefits ?

The timing for the corporate exercise is extremely bad. Why plan it with a poor results ? Most corporate exercises are done with lots of feel good factors.

The vietnam IPP is a game changer for jaks', not only Andy won't risk the construction works, CPECC will not allow Jaks to jeopardize the whole project.
03/12/2018 8:52 AM
qqq3 this icon have been very aggressive with warrants in i3 competition......

now , it seems in real life too........

your good friend kcchong from nz pengsan.
03/12/2018 8:54 AM
CharlesT If say yr conspiracy is correct they push down mother prices as to discourage people from buying WA

then mother shall rebound upon listing of WA...

WA will still trade at hefty premium at 0.25 even mother goes to 0.70 or 0.80

But u will make 50% or more from mother
03/12/2018 8:55 AM
SarifahSelinder DK66 as at npw can u confirm Koon wil subscribe d warrant?
03/12/2018 8:55 AM
Mytrd When you sold the share below your average buy price is a loss lar . Even you swap to warrant after sold to leverage and minimize the risk.
Must have confident with mother share then get reward from warrant.
If no confident better dont get any of the warrant, later 100% burn.
03/12/2018 8:55 AM
DK66 Sarifah, I cannot confirm.

---------------------
SarifahSelinder DK66 as at npw can u confirm Koon wil subscribe d warrant?
03/12/2018 8:57 AM
qqq3 kcchong just wrote an article telling people the maths calculations and his reservations......

kc chong not imaginative....the word IF can launch a thousand boats.....
03/12/2018 8:58 AM
Icon8888 I know my numbers

Posted by CharlesT > Dec 3, 2018 08:57 AM | Report Abuse

Yr sweet dreams in Wa will only comes true when mother reach RM1.50 or RM2.00 or higher
03/12/2018 8:58 AM
Investor 999 谨慎点不是坏事,未來不一定如我們想像那么完美的。公司最重要是最高管理层效率和诚信,偏偏是这间公司最大的问题!
03/12/2018 9:42 AM
qqq3 charles....

so still want to blame? blame me for what?

and what culprit? I no culprit, I not so powerful one.
03/12/2018 9:48 AM
CharlesT So Koon is 100% responsibled for all the massive loss here?

U are totally innocent?
03/12/2018 9:51 AM
qqq3 I am totally innocent.
03/12/2018 9:54 AM
CharlesT Ok. kyy is 100% guilty n qqq3 is innocent...
03/12/2018 9:56 AM
qqq3 where got culprit...I still receive this message from kyy in whatsapp yesterday.....".I believe I will be able to make back some money with my tested skill."...and 99% of the time, not talking about stock market.....
03/12/2018 9:57 AM
CharlesT Tested skill?

does he meant sialang in JAKS n Sendai using margin?

I scare n worry for the poor students loh
03/12/2018 9:58 AM
CharlesT I suggest him to donate more now....just in case he wanna test his tested skill again
03/12/2018 9:59 AM
Jonathan Keung when a large stakeholder start selling ( amid depressed conditions ) price of this category will drop faster . lack of institutional support can be clearly seen from the chart pattern. just my personal take
03/12/2018 9:59 AM
qqq3 kyy is his own man and there is only one kyy in Malaysia. That is all I want to say.
03/12/2018 10:13 AM
rajachulan qqq3 > Dec 3, 2018 10:13 AM | Report Abuse

kyy is his own man and there is only one kyy in Malaysia. That is all I want to say.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

true! and there is only one jesse livermore, one ed seykota
03/12/2018 10:26 AM
CharlesT I think there are two qqq3 in this world...one in holland another one in i3
03/12/2018 10:34 AM
SarifahSelinder Koon pondan x berani confirm he subscribe warrant

No support IDSS x takut lagi dah jadi berani
03/12/2018 10:50 AM
CharlesT ".I believe I will be able to make back some money with my tested skill."

Wait wait wait...on the second thought could he be implying he will join Koon Bee System again? Like how he dumped all his Mudajaya/Rsawit etc without hesitation n switched to export counters in 2014??

Omg will he dump all his JAKS n Sendai and.......
03/12/2018 10:50 AM
SarifahSelinder Koon x jawab jawab

Conclusion Koon not subscribe his lebih kurang 50,000,000 warrant
03/12/2018 11:28 AM
Uncle Sam Wat icon did is just risk management. No choice.
All the best
03/12/2018 2:01 PM
qqq3 charles....who says trade war is good for steels in Malaysia?

now, all kaput......
03/12/2018 2:16 PM
kelvin61 All self professed gurus and super investors here seem to missed it. I said from the start that Jaks is not a good stock to put your hard earned money into and for the gullible using margin too. I mentioned that the most pertinent criteria in stock picking is the management that runs the company. Jaks has a very poor track record. Yet there were self professed super investors that were attracted to this stock. There's no free lunch in this world. So, what goes around comes around. Hopefully, this will serve as a lesson to all to buy companies that are managed well and not prices ramp up through private syndicates and gullible followers that think they're invincible. These people has finally got their fingers burnt. This is their karma for boasting in the past on their track record. Their modus operandi was to attract unassuming investors to help push their share price up. Hopefully, they will be more humble in their writing in future, cheers.
03/12/2018 10:58 PM
Nikmon seems like a lots people has gave up the warrant...黄金十年....i will not subscribe as well.
04/12/2018 12:25 AM
rob_z3_man KYY king of upcar
04/12/2018 9:49 AM
dusti 1 idiot + 1 idiot = 2 idiots
04/12/2018 10:04 AM
3iii (Icon) Jaks Resources (1) - Too Cheap To Be Ignored. Golden Chance To Accumulate
Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Fri, 27 Jul 2018, 09:54 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/167135.jsp
04/12/2018 11:03 AM
3iii (Icon) Jaks Resources (5) - I Remain Defiant
Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Sat, 1 Dec 2018, 12:09 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/184703.jsp
04/12/2018 11:04 AM
Choivo Capital Jaks- I have sold.

Talk about a confusing series of events. Haha
04/12/2018 11:05 AM
i3Value Jon sell Jaks! Everyone run. God of Stocks run from Jaks already! Jon Fund sell, Jaks price fall, waterfall!

Wait wait.......... Jaks how many % of your fund? 1.5% got? I count count is 25 to 30 lots only. Need to make announcement here?
04/12/2018 12:38 PM
Choivo Capital I'm referring to icon's article title (and chronology).

You really need to improve on your reading comprehension.

Its embaressing really.

------
Posted by i3Value > Dec 4, 2018 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

Jon sell Jaks! Everyone run. God of Stocks run from Jaks already! Jon Fund sell, Jaks price fall, waterfall!

Wait wait.......... Jaks how many % of your fund? 1.5% got? I count count is 25 to 30 lots only. Need to make announcement here?
04/12/2018 12:40 PM
i3Value Out of no where post "Jaks- I have sold" did not mean you sold shares but referring to something else?

You really need to improve on your writing ability. Its embaressing really.
04/12/2018 12:50 PM
Choivo Capital Its a public forum.

Pay me RM5 per word, and i'll write properly.

OthERwiSE I'll WRite MY EngLAND lik tis. If i want to.

Your sentence below is wrong grammatically btw.

Coldeye have a 1/2/7 view. Out of 10, one make profit in markets, 2 breakeven, 7 lose money.

How lah, read or write also dunno, probability of you being in 7, went from 80% to 90% d. Sad man.


====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 4, 2018 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

Out of no where post "Jaks- I have sold" did not mean you sold shares but referring to something else?

You really need to improve on your writing ability. Its embaressing really.
04/12/2018 12:57 PM
i3Value Totally can understand why people in BDO Binder describe you as ANNOYING
04/12/2018 1:04 PM
Choivo Capital Im flaterred you checked back that far. Ancient history also can find. You want baby photo's anot? Haha.

Feel free to finish your research and write a wikipedia page for me. I lazy type.

Don't forget i was also a bit of an asshole, and a strict taskmaster as a manager.
04/12/2018 1:08 PM
i3Value Where got ancient? You just left BDO Binder but you so quickly want to wipe off from your memory your dark sad episode of life - unpopular, disliked.

You promote yourself to Manager? Like that also can
04/12/2018 1:15 PM
Choivo Capital Given your reading comprehension skills and abitlity in buying seacera at 0.31.

I won't put too much stock in your reserch or comprehension abilities. But, feel free to continue.

Maybe one day something will stick. With luck you may even make money!
04/12/2018 1:20 PM
i3Value Sad to disappoint you. I bought Seacera closer to 50% of the price you said i bought. That was a big kill.
04/12/2018 1:26 PM
i3Value Why change subject? We were talking about BDO Binder. When you promoted to Manager?
04/12/2018 1:28 PM
Aseng investor,

can you substantiate you claim with a more convincing example that a general statement
if i find what you said is believable , i will sell all my warrant the first day




Posted by Investor 999 > Dec 3, 2018 09:42 AM | Report Abuse

谨慎点不是坏事,未來不一定如我們想像那么完美的。公司最重要是最高管理层效率和诚信,偏偏是这间公司最大的问题
04/12/2018 1:35 PM
Aseng do not blame qqq3
when he promoted sailang
i did not sailang , why you sailang

uncle koon is my sifu when he buy I did not buy

I buy only after i am convinced by DK66 homework

dare not buy mother shares, only dare to play-play warrant to test my lucks for the coming 2 years

why so funny one ?

not funny at all
KC is my sifu mah ....
04/12/2018 1:41 PM
Aseng this year seems a bad year for i3 readers

semua suka cari salah

semua suka gaduh

not only aseng gor
04/12/2018 2:07 PM
qqq3 halite....yalah....why so many people want to blame me? I very innocent one.

I so close to KYY, but I not burn by Jaks.....everyone should be responsible for their buy and sell and not blame anyone.
05/12/2018 12:57 AM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (5) - I Remain Defiant

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Sat, 1 Dec 2018, 12:09 AM


No need for me to provide too much details, I guess almost everybody knows what had happened to Jaks lately (rights issue went ex, lousy results, massive sell down).

 

Almost everyone is now super pessimistic about Jaks. Except for me. I have studied Jaks' latest quarterly report in detailed. As far as I am concerned, fundamentals remain intact. 

 

I have predicted Jaks price collapse a few months back (belatedly after I bought it. But I decided to hold it anyway, albeit at curtailed exposure). I have given hints in this forum before about that, which I will dig out in the future to substantiate my claim. So far everything that happened matches my expectation and prediction. 

 

I am not going to reveal too much details in this article as nobody is in a mood to listen. The herd mentality has taken over. Everybody is in bearish, cynical and panic mood. Whatever I say will not be well received.

 

I will only write about Jaks again when things turn around. Otherwise, it will mean that I have been wrong (namely, Jaks is indeed a basket case) and I have suffered losses.

 

See you. 

Labels: JAKS
  6 people like this.
 
Choivo Capital I'm in a mood to listen. Because i want buy.But i can't see much beyond risk and reward probably not that stupid. And power plant, may make profit. And at this price, not a stupid bet to make.
01/12/2018 4:18 AM
CharlesT Waiting to see the warrant's subscription rates, may give u some clue
01/12/2018 6:50 AM
Icon8888 Thanks bro . I take note of your advice


CharlesT Meanwhile put some eggs in AA/supermax/genm....dont be too obsessed with yr vietnam sweet lady...
01/12/2018 06:54
01/12/2018 8:01 AM
Icon8888 Murali is a very cautious person. Difficult to steal his capati
01/12/2018 8:12 AM
Mytrd No no no icon888, you should revealed more detail now while the price is Low. Or when price is Low , peoples will consider buy into it. And when price is stabilise and up then no need to revealed Liao lar
01/12/2018 8:32 AM
2721 ggwp
01/12/2018 8:55 AM
KLCI King People cannon behind horse when price up, they will get scolded for talking rubbish. This is first time I hear this kind of cannon behind horse when price collapsed.

Hard core rule in stock market is people buy share because they hope (not expect) price will up & sell/run when price will collapse. (LOOK carefully, not reduce but collapse!!!)

In Icon8888 case, he said he predicted, when one guy lose so much money, I really can’t understand the logic of such statement.

When the price drop more than 70% from the peak in less than a year, it is too much speculation & shit holes in it, no matter how sweet the talk, it is still sweet talk!


Icon8888: “I have predicted Jaks price collapse a few months back”
01/12/2018 8:56 AM
ramada Very beautiful talk, in fact, you lose money, a lot.
01/12/2018 9:00 AM
01/12/2018 9:38 AM
SarifahSelinder Tis good news kan 


So far, only RM591m has been recognized or only 31% of total construction cost of RM1.89bn with c.1.5 years to targeted completion date. 

That said, management still believes that the power plant is on track to complete on schedule





♡♡♡


1,890,000,000 - 591,000,000 = 1,299,000,000 


Balance 1,299,000,000 over next c.1.5 years 


At profit 20% profit adalah c.259,800,000 in c.1.5 years


Profit c.43,300,000 per quarter 



That said, management still believes that the power plant is on track to complete on schedule


Just slower tapi in c. 1.5 years 


♡♡♡

01/12/2018 09:50
01/12/2018 9:52 AM
SarifahSelinder Selepas c.1.5 years reliable real ipp profit dari electric start
01/12/2018 9:54 AM
Lyo82 Again, trust yourself rather than following others. Take others' opinion with pinch of salt and make a genuine decision of your own.
01/12/2018 10:42 AM
Icon8888 I have already anticipated you will say things like that. From day one, I already know you are a hopeless cynics that think everybody lies and con to make a living. I already mentioned in my article that I will provide irrefutable proof to substantiate my claim. Reserve your accusation of Canon behind horse until later stage when you actually see my proof. Now just be patient and wait


KLCI King People cannon behind horse when price up, they will get scolded for talking rubbish. This is first time I hear this kind of cannon behind horse when price collapsed.

Hard core rule in stock market is people buy share because they hope (not expect) price will up & sell/run when price will collapse. (LOOK carefully, not reduce but collapse!!!)

In Icon8888 case, he said he predicted, when one guy lose so much money, I really can’t understand the logic of such statement.

When the price drop more than 70% from the peak in less than a year, it is too much speculation & shit holes in it, no matter how sweet the talk, it is still sweet talk!


Icon8888: “I have predicted Jaks price collapse a few months back”
01/12/2018 08:56
01/12/2018 10:45 AM
abang_misai Tak payah gaduh-gaduh lah. Semua dah cedera separuh mampus.
01/12/2018 10:49 AM
qqq3 this Icon got future.

stockmarket performance about practice, habit and character.

Icon got habit and character of KYY......got future.
01/12/2018 10:54 AM
CharlesT Pls lah qqq3 even u dont like icon8888 u dont hv to curse n insult him like that lah

Dont take things personally..ok?
01/12/2018 11:28 AM
birkincollector if really predicted the price collapse few months back....then should have waited till now only buy in lor...why bought at much higher price leh? Doesn't make sense lol
01/12/2018 12:23 PM
qqq3 y CharlesT > Dec 1, 2018 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

Pls lah qqq3 even u dont like icon8888 u dont hv to curse n insult him like that lah

Dont take things personally..ok?
=============================


where got curse?

its true u know...this icon got the defiance of KYY....He got future.....bull market come, he makes lots more than I can.
01/12/2018 12:29 PM
Alex™ I dunno... Maybe the market wants to see improved earning as fact then baru hoot? Now it's landmine everywhere.... Buy what drop what
01/12/2018 12:35 PM
Alex™ Once Power plant earning is online, efficient market hypothesis will prove the fundamental of the stock.
01/12/2018 12:36 PM
KLCI King Ok, Icon8888, hope you will be right then. Just thst Market is scare of another mudajaya in making, unless Jaks proved it can generate good profit from the vietnam power plant, the general market will still presume such way.
01/12/2018 2:23 PM
KLCI King But hope you have not sailang this stock, in case it didn’t deliver. 留得青山在,不怕材没有。两手准备,进退可容。
01/12/2018 2:28 PM
KLCI King Win big or lose big will be too risky, good luck
01/12/2018 2:28 PM
crookeverywhere is how ur fundamental work in 2018?
2018 i3investor stock pick loss -72.79% ?
01/12/2018 6:11 PM
deMusangking me still see see only!!! though always monitor the movement.. to see when can enter!
01/12/2018 6:42 PM
rogers123 Icon8888: I think Salvador Dalí's situation is worst than u as he also sailang all. Jaks is not tat bad. But I really hope it can felt to 0.26.
01/12/2018 7:48 PM
rogers123 I think icon888 AP is more than 1.00++
01/12/2018 7:48 PM
rogers123 Icon8888: Luckily I have disposed my previous holding at 0.90++ all. Now I have started buying again when it was 0.52-.
01/12/2018 7:51 PM
Tryingtogetrich Think about what u r investing in.......... u r planning to be a partner of jaks ........ hoping they will make money from a power plant business that have no experience in....absolutely zero...... they r a typical Alibaba business........ u all keep saying in bursa u need to rely on your own work to succeed and not blindly follow a sifu....... this applies to jaks too..... they blindly follow a China company and u expect they will make jaks a lot of money ? This is venture capital level of risk which no serious retail investor can hope to succeed....... think carefully
01/12/2018 8:01 PM
CharlesT Qqq3 do u want to confess?
01/12/2018 8:08 PM
JN88 Wow Congrats Icon88888 bro......at this current situation still steady to look at the fundamental.....many investors already loss emotional....

Great that still to see you so optimistic...

THis year whole year can be year for big shark distribution.

Hope we can hunt some good fundamental stock.
01/12/2018 9:08 PM
soojinhou I admire your conviction. I’m happy to punt some warrants if I can get them for a few cents. But frankly, there’s too many unknowns. The reasoning uncle koon used, that Chinese banks has done their due diligence, and therefore the project will be profitable, is a weak conjecture. Chinese banks are known to fund unprofitable overseas projects to trap creditor countries in debt. Short of having access to the actual agreement between Jaks and the Chinese contractors, it’s at best a calculated punt, in my opinion. Anyway, all the best and may Jaks be profitable for you.
01/12/2018 9:16 PM
abang_misai Be warned. If warrants not subscribed, the company will still lack of RM70mil funds it seeks. If so, do expect another round of fund raising, be it private placement or right issues.
01/12/2018 9:32 PM
Alex™ u ppl force me to relook jaks for the x time.... ok i'll do it one more time...
01/12/2018 9:37 PM
Choivo Capital There are 3 things needed to be a good investor.

1) The ability to estimate intrinsic value
2) The ability to buy more or hold as prices fall
3) To be right.

I hope you pass the last. That sweetness of being right, is ultimately of little value to me.

Whether you make or lose money is of zero consequence to me, but of large consequence to you.

Good luck.

I remember this value investor sifu, he was a big buyer of valeant. As prices fell from 300 usd to 12 dollar. He made a video reiterating his research and saying he will go all in.

He was wrong. No more videos.

Really good luck, i hope you are right and make alot of money.
01/12/2018 10:14 PM
Fabien Extraordinaire "There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything." ~ Henry Kaufman
01/12/2018 11:02 PM
qqq3 CharlesT > Dec 1, 2018 08:08 PM | Report Abuse

Qqq3 do u want to confess?
=============

confess what?
01/12/2018 11:04 PM
qqq3 Fabien Extraordinaire > Dec 1, 2018 11:02 PM | Report Abuse

"There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything." ~ Henry Kaufman
====================


wrong....Those who know nothing can at least make money through luck....those who know every thing cannot even act....paralysis through analysis.
01/12/2018 11:07 PM
Fabien Extraordinaire It is important knowing what you don't know.
01/12/2018 11:12 PM
qqq3 d by Fabien Extraordinaire > Dec 1, 2018 11:12 PM | Report Abuse

It is important knowing what you don't know.
===========

stock market works in mysterious ways......

I am sure u read of the story of the widow who knows nothing of shares who got hundreds of millions $ worth of Apple ( and one of many others )...and the smart alec analyst ( the KC types?) who got nothing.
01/12/2018 11:16 PM
FEveR SwEat kyy needs to drink tongkat ali lmao idiots, u guys are little sheeps following the Shepard, the shepard when hungry eats the sheeps lol go on join paid groups and be a sheep today lmao
01/12/2018 11:16 PM
qqq3 Posted by 1527640962 > Dec 1, 2018 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

, u guys are little sheeps following the Shepard, the shepard when hungry eats the sheeps lol go on join paid groups and be a sheep today lmao
============


good scold...scold all the sheep for me.....
01/12/2018 11:20 PM
FEveR SwEat forgot to add: when 1 sheep dies and gets eaten, the sheep still follows the shepard in dreams of finding heaven. However they forgotten that the sheppard sells some sheeps as well. with the money he enjoys it himself while new sheeps joins the shepard the following year in hope and dreams of heaven.

I name this tale : THE FOOLS THAT DREAMS OF PARADISE
02/12/2018 12:40 AM
FEveR SwEat AKA : THE CYCLE OF FOOLISH SHEEPS
02/12/2018 12:41 AM
qqq3 1527640962 > Dec 2, 2018 12:40 AM | Report Abuse

forgot to add: when 1 sheep dies and gets eaten, the sheep still follows the shepard in dreams of finding heaven. However they forgotten that the sheppard sells some sheeps as well. with the money he enjoys it himself while new sheeps joins the shepard the following year in hope and dreams of heaven.

I name this tale : THE FOOLS THAT DREAMS OF PARADISE
=============

good scold....sheep is sheep.....sheep always dream of heaven...what else can it do ?
02/12/2018 12:43 AM
RainT @icon8888

would appreciate if you can share you insight on recent qtr result and why you still think it is a good buy/good hold, the fundamental still sound , & the Vietnam IPP project still good ??

please ignore those idiots who post useless comments

many more in here is to share insight and knowledge that we might have overlook but you might have another different perspective to see from
02/12/2018 12:50 AM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Dec 1, 2018 11:16 PM | Report Abuse

stock market works in mysterious ways......

I am sure u read of the story of the widow who knows nothing of shares who got hundreds of millions $ worth of Apple ( and one of many others )...and the smart alec analyst ( the KC types?) who got nothing.


KC again?

You know the KC type never lost money in Mudajaya, Jayatiasa, xingguan and most recently Jaks and Sendai?

Who is the real smart Alec who PLP his boss so much that he kept on drinking koolaid?

Who was the smart alec who kept on telloing others to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai?

I am really amazed that he can still talk cock like that.

Shame on you.

But like what SSlee said, his skin is the thickest.
02/12/2018 1:03 AM
qqq3 kcchongnz > Dec 2, 2018 01:03 AM | Report Abuse

You know the KC type never lost money in Mudajaya, Jayatiasa, xingguan and most recently Jaks and Sendai?

==============

kc...u didn't lose money on those shares, you will lose money on other shares in last 18 months.

how much money a person loses ( or makes) is a function of habits and character and luck too.
02/12/2018 1:12 AM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Dec 2, 2018 01:12 AM | Report Abuse

kc...u didn't lose money on those shares, you will lose money on other shares in last 18 months.
how much money a person loses ( or makes) is a function of habits and character and luck too.

Obviously you did not read my articles recently. Please read them. The links are as below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/183163.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/177480.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/176865.jsp

Winning or losing is normal. It is not that important.

Yes, the character of someone is more important. In this aspect, I really don't see any sign of good character in you.
02/12/2018 1:25 AM
KLCI King Whay call other people pondan? Was that learned from one ‘s mother’s teaching?

This is new era, don’t act like orang utan, It is totally narrow personal biased attitude & humiliation.
03/12/2018 10:59 AM

(Icon) Trump's Trade War Against China Is A Paper Tiger And Faces A Dead End Road

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 12 Nov 2018, 12:36 PM


Over the past few months, Trump launched an offensive barrage against China. It slapped tariff on USD250 billion China export and threatens to impose further USD250 billion by early next year. It imposed restrictions on Chinese students pursuing advanced degrees in the US. It banned China from investing in various sectors in US. 

 

Not only that, Vice President Mike Pence gave a speech recently criticising China from both trade and geopolitical point of view. This led many Western press to declare that the US is launching a Cold War against China (and hence, China should be afraid).

 

Are the above merely negotiating ploys or the US is serious about containing China ? Afterall, the US has done this twice in the past : First with Japan. Secondly with the Soviet Union. In both cases, the US emerged victorious. Japan was forced to enter into the Plaza Accord which subsequently led to the lost decades while the Soviet Union finally collapsed and dissolved into several pieces.

 

Can the US pull it off this time against China ?

 

No, it cannot. Because this time it is different.

 

In Japan's case, the US was its security guarantor. If Japan did not compromise on the trade front, the US will withdraw its protection and throw Japan to the Communists. Japan simply did not stand a chance to fight. From day one the Americans acted against them, they have already lost.

 

As for the Soviet Union, the US has totally no commercial exposure to it. As such, it did not hesitate to pile pressure on the Evil Empire until it eventually collapsed.

 

But China is different. China has something that the Americans cannot live without : its consumer market of 1.4 billion people.

 

The US has GDP per capita of USD60,000 while China's GDP per capita is USD10,000. Given time, China's GDP per capita will grow to USD60,000. (To argue that this is not achievable is simply assuming that the Americans are a more superior race, because only they can do it and others cannot. You can believe in that if you want, but I don't.)

 

US companies (those that invested in China) currently do USD250 billion business in China per annum. Assuming that this grows proportionately with GDP per capita, one day those businesses will be doing USD1.5 trillion business in China per annum (as China GDP per capita grows by 600% to that of the 2018 US level). 

 

If the Americans turn the table on China now by launching a Cold War, it cannot expect to continue to do business in China over the longer term. To preserve economic stability, China is unlikely to immediately clamp down on American businesses. But it will cap their size at USD250 billion per annum and gradually channel new business opportunities to the Europeans, Japanese and others. Or it can simply ask its own local companies to step in to fill the void (for example : in the case of e-commerce, it thrives without foreign participation). Not an ideal situation as opening up is still the best, but not undoable. 

 

After some time when they are fully ready (all replacements are already in place), China will kick the Americans out for good. The US will forever be shut out of the biggest market in the world.  

 

So, while contemplating on how to contain and destroy China, the Americans need to ask themselves this question : "What are we going to do with the consumer market of 1.4 billion people ? How can we contain China and at the same time maintain our business presence there ?"

 

Until they figure out how to solve this dilemma, all these talks about starting a Cold War to contain China are nothing but a fantasy.   

 

Conclusion : ignore the so called Trade War or Cold War. It is business as usual. The Americans and the Chinese will reach a compromise sooner or later.

  5 people like this.
 
rajachulan really qqq3??? -_-!!! I really dont want to talk about that anymore...

funnyhome will help Tong and Liu and other developer before anyone else...I have little faith that a sdn bhd businessman mission is to save the country rather than their pocket...

in fact... i still puzzle why a PM and a mof will so passionate to promote a sdn bhd scheme? didnt we have a Housing and Local Government minister to do a proper housing palnningjob for the country?

if we so depend on sdh bhd.. then Zuraida can rest...
14/11/2018 6:12 PM
Sslee Dear all,
My memory on China:
I was promoted to Business Development Manager in 1998 accompanied the GM and MD (Major shareholder) to China to explore business opportunities in China. In the late ninety almost every month there were so call Chinese investment invitation from province, city, county or town having trade promotion in Malaysia to promote investment opportunities in China. SAB did participate in such invitations, signing MOU and collecting all the projects paper given out by them. I had to read through all the projects paper and cherry picking which project is worth investing. The memory from my childhood of China is what I heard from my late father, where China is a very poor country, people were suffering from starvation and political chaos year after year till many of its citizen had to leave China for better future over-sea.

So what is China? For the pass 2000 years, China had been the central of power and trade in Asian for the last 1800 years. The power of China reaches it peak during the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) when Admiral Cheng Ho (A Chinese Muslim) leading a gigantic fleet of ships (Their ship is ten time bigger that the Columbus ship) exploring the sea route to the outside world. (A land silk route connecting Europe through Middle East, India and central Asian had been used to reach China thousand of year ago) Their sea adventure had left their marks and influence in many countries in South East Asia, India. Middle East, Africa and now some historian even say Cheng Ho had reached the North America. Unfortunate after this unprecedented history fate, the Ming emperor feel China is the world, everything can be find in China and China do not need the outside world hence the close door policy. This started the slow decaying of once mighty China. China reached it low during the end of Qing dynasty where western power had force opened the door of china for trade under barrel of gunship. The opium war, the looting of imperial summer garden of China treasury, the curving out of special administration territory to foreign power in Shanghai, and elsewhere. (Notable Hong Kong to British and Macau to Portugal for 100 years.) The Qing dynasty finally comes to an end in 1911 by people uprising lead by Dr Sun Yat Sen.( Dr. Sun was regard as the founding Father of Republic of China by both main land China (lead by the victory Communist party chairman Mao 1949-1976) and Taiwan (lead by the loser Kuomintang general Chiang). What followed were equally tragic to China people, unable to form a unify central government China was rules by local warlords later the Japanese invasion, the word war two, the civil war, the communist rule, the experimental agriculture reformed which starve millions of Chinese to died, the failed state enterprise which spread rampant corruption among the party cadres, the Cultural Revolution political purge where millions of intellects were send to country side for hard labour and closing of school for almost ten years. Some resemblance of sense and progress finally come to China when Deng Xiao Peng (1976-1989) comes to power and started an unprecedented economy reformed which saw a very successful experimental capitalism in Shenzhen (Formally a sleeping farmland bordering Hong Kong. Now a Mega City) by the ninety China had totally embraced capitalism, socialism were long dead and communism only exist by name only.

I was in China in 1998, flying to Shanghai and taking train to Wuxi. Meeting with the then Wuxi Mayor on the jointed project to develop a 36MW Power and Thermal plant.
On our way back to KL we stopped over in Shanghai and staying in Peace hotel in Shanghai Bund. Shanghai is a beautiful city with old Western style building blending into new highway, sky scalper and etc. I were to return to Wuxi several more time for the signing ceremony, laying the first foundation ceremony, site progress meeting, opening ceremony and on visitation checking on plant performance. (Each time I fly to Shanghai you can virtually see the transformation of the city with new high rise building, new subway and highway interconnecting the blood line of the city). The power plant were manned equally with males and females staffs. We had female plant operators, technicians, forklift drivers, crane operators and etc. China provides equal opportunity for her woman as a common saying: “Woman hold up half the sky”. I would like to say to those countries where their womanhood is denial education and jobs opportunity; you are at least 50% less competitive compared to China.

Thank you
14/11/2018 6:14 PM
qqq3 there is nothing sinister in fundmyhome.....just need to open eyes to new opportunities and innovations......

for those lucky enough to get a house this way.....its no installments, no interest costs , no rentals for 5 years , and still got 20% equity interest at end of 5 years.....and increase overall spending power for the family....will do great stuffs for the economy. No wonder Minister of Finance so excited.
14/11/2018 6:27 PM
Choivo Capital sslee,

You got go buy shanghai land and china stock when there anot.

Dont tell mee see so much, in the end never buy anything haha.
14/11/2018 6:31 PM
qqq3 Golden Plus a Malaysian listed company supposed to be first to invest in Shanghai in 1990.....what happened? the company delisted and disappeared and people run off already.....
14/11/2018 6:33 PM
enning22 Massive national and state level debts are hang over the sky of china, one millian times worst than 1mdb, and that about to burst,thanks to US/China Trade War , so don't talk nonsense about china.
14/11/2018 8:13 PM
Sslee Dear Jon Choivo,
I am just a fulltime employee taking minutes of the meeting and preparing reports and on many occasions had to drink (Bottom up) on behalf of my boss. It a very tire and unhealthy lifestyle. During the 90s’ what China lack was capital and when they already have access to capital they just buy back the business from you and when business failed they just told you they cannot pay you the guarantee profit and you have to face the reality and cut loss. Anyhow many oversea Chinese businessmen just take it as their obligation/contribution/duty to help develop their forefather land (China) and not profit minded.

Those have connection to the central government top leaders like Robert Kuok are the one make huge profit from property development. SAB was offered land for property development but due to uncertainty on land use right of limited years and lack of rule of clear laws regarding land ownership thus we decline the offer. During that period rule of man is the norm and you need the political connection to the top central leader in order to be successful in China. Many Malaysia businessmen who invest in China in 90s’ were considered themselves lucky if they were not losing their capital/business to their china partner/state enterprises or able to exit China with small profit the exception that I can think of is Prefect (China) Commodity Co.Ltd doing very well in China.

Thank you
14/11/2018 8:47 PM
qqq3 enning22 Massive national and state level debts are hang over the sky of china, one millian times worst than 1mdb, and that about to burst,thanks to US/China Trade War , so don't talk nonsense about china.
===========

China sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.....but no worries, China got cure.
14/11/2018 9:06 PM
matkaya when are you chinese patriot m o t h e r f u c k e r s leaving Malaysia. If you are constipated with the communist shit of yours then kindly leave.
14/11/2018 9:32 PM
14/11/2018 9:35 PM
matkaya Sslee
The power plant were manned equally with males and females staffs. We had female plant operators, technicians, forklift drivers, crane operators and etc. China provides equal opportunity for her woman as a common saying: “Woman hold up half the sky”. I would like to say to those countries where their womanhood is denial education and jobs opportunity; you are at least 50% less competitive compared to China.

All the above you mentioned is hard labor, show me the female leaders of your beloved china....at least under your great deng xiao peng or the sun yat sen fella...I am sure this is going to be very interesting.
14/11/2018 9:38 PM
matkaya for someone who don't wash up after shitting...you sure do know the difference...chinese homo
14/11/2018 9:40 PM
14/11/2018 9:42 PM
14/11/2018 9:43 PM
matkaya Post removed. Why?
14/11/2018 9:44 PM
14/11/2018 9:48 PM
matkaya Post removed. Why?
14/11/2018 9:48 PM
matkaya Post removed. Why?
14/11/2018 9:48 PM
matkaya Post removed. Why?
14/11/2018 9:50 PM
matkaya Post removed. Why?
14/11/2018 9:52 PM
14/11/2018 9:53 PM
matkaya Post removed. Why?
14/11/2018 9:56 PM
matkaya when the country is destroyed you too go down with it, you know?
dumbwit chinese ho mo
14/11/2018 9:57 PM
butoamet no assumption everyone knows your race destroyed this country
14/11/2018 9:57 PM
matkaya no assumption...your kind introduced all the filthy business culture that made the country to what it is now
14/11/2018 9:59 PM
matlanjiao i love to sleep and t a l k c o ck
14/11/2018 10:03 PM
tecpower Semiconductor Investors See Cause for Optimism After Recent Rout. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/semiconductor-investors-see-cause-for-optimism-after-recent-rout

Semiconductor ETFs Surge Amid Renewed Trade War Optimism. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/semiconductor-etfs-surge-amid-renewed-optimism-on-china-trade
14/11/2018 10:17 PM
qqq3 tec...FANG rally is dead...go figure.
14/11/2018 10:30 PM
tecpower Volkswagen ready to build 50 million electric cars
Read more at https://www.auto123.com/en/news/Volkswagen-ready-build-50-million-electric-vehicles/65296/#HlIMFclBGjrc06Ie.99
14/11/2018 10:59 PM
tecpower Investing: Positive outlook for tech sector, says Franklin Templeton | http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/456844
14/11/2018 11:00 PM
enning22 @qq3,China got cure? don't be silly, massive unemplyment already happening in China,where u got the cure, this is just the beginning for the down-turning economy.existing over hanging massive debt ,make any form of cure impossible.
14/11/2018 11:01 PM
tecpower Analysts are missing the mark on shares of Apple and FANG, Cramer says. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/cramer-analysts-are-missing-the-mark-on-shares-of-apple-and-fang.html

“The bottom line? Do not be so quick to write off Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet [and] Apple,” Cramer said. “The Fab Five may be out of favor right now ... but there’s a lot they could do to make a comeback. I know to bet against them right here, after this decline, ... seems maybe ill-advised. In fact, it might be right to actually start — yes, I’m going to whisper — buying them.”
14/11/2018 11:24 PM
qqq3 enning22 > Nov 14, 2018 11:01 PM | Report Abuse

@qq3,China got cure? don't be silly, massive unemplyment already happening in China,where u got the cure, this is just the beginning for the down-turning economy.existing over hanging massive debt ,make any form of cure impossible.
===========

your kind have been bearish on China since forever.....
14/11/2018 11:41 PM
qqq3 cramer? I consider myself above cramer......
14/11/2018 11:43 PM
mmk79 Good stuff to read
15/11/2018 6:33 AM
enning22 qqq3 ,like many people ,they just don't understand the real china.
15/11/2018 9:25 AM
rajachulan Why I said qqq3 share a nice article?

Simply put, if you get a chance to go back to 1400++/1500++ Melaka sultanate...

Simply ask any of the sultan, are they prefer to see a China Ship or Portuguese Ship at the doorstep...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by rajachulan > Nov 14, 2018 02:43 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 14, 2018 02:01 PM | Report Abuse

Jon....u want to know how China has been demonised ?

https://journal-neo.org/2018/06/17/west-is-spreading-sick-racist-anti-...

------------------------------------------------------------------
by the way, nice article you shared qqq3...
15/11/2018 9:41 AM
qqq3 y rajachulan > Nov 15, 2018 09:41 AM | Report Abuse

Why I said qqq3 share a nice article?

Simply put, if you get a chance to go back to 1400++/1500++ Melaka sultanate...

Simply ask any of the sultan, are they prefer to see a China Ship or Portuguese Ship at the doorstep...
================

Mahathir gave the same message while in London.......
15/11/2018 9:46 AM
qqq3 the real china....enning22

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a25101820/china-lhc-particle-collider-cepc/
15/11/2018 10:02 AM
rajachulan Isnt this shown in the movie Angel and Demon? and I was kidding my friend back in 2012 that we may die suddenly if these European cant handle this god particle

I really hope China can handle it... I dont want to die not knowing what happen! hahahahahahaha

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a25101820/china-lhc-particle-...
15/11/2018 10:20 AM
qqq3 in all areas of STEM, China will be a leader, including fundamental research....then how?
15/11/2018 11:06 AM
qqq3 in every area of STEM, China will be number one.
15/11/2018 11:11 AM
qqq3 in every area of STEM, China will be number one.

How does it come about?

Its all down to organisational skills and ambition....the CPP has the organisation to get it done.
15/11/2018 11:16 AM
speakup https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/11/15/3-out-of-10-working-msians-had-to-borrow-money-for-essential-goods/
15/11/2018 11:17 AM
rajachulan take a good care of M40 and T20... so these people can survive/progress and earn more to take care the govt and B40!

why everyday B40! B40! B40!
15/11/2018 11:27 AM
qqq3 If Donkey Donald opens his arse & spouts shit about oil price being so called 'too high', and he does that once too often, then people are going to call him 'The boy who cried wolf', and just begin ignoring him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb59hRuBPTw

I HEARD YOU CRY WOLF

In America, u have a cry wolf king.

faking it, China is collapsing,

America is closed for business, closing its doors.

faking it...cry wolf.....
15/11/2018 11:32 AM
qqq3 y rajachulan > Nov 15, 2018 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

take a good care of M40 and T20... so these people can survive/progress and earn more to take care the govt and B40!

why everyday B40! B40! B40!
=============

B40 is new code for bumi....but still new code better than old code, less controversial.
15/11/2018 11:33 AM
qqq3 3 out of 10 working M'sians had to borrow money for essential goods
--------------


good for Ah Long business.
15/11/2018 11:36 AM
qqq3 legal Ah Loong....AeonCredit.
15/11/2018 11:37 AM
apolloang many people queue for free essential goods in penang.mostly lost their life saving gambling or invest in bursa now have to resort to this
15/11/2018 11:38 AM

(Icon) Is This How Red Chips Con Us About Their Cash ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Mon, 24 Sep 2018, 9:41 AM


While I was going through the Billion Dollar Whxxx (story about how JL siphoned off billions from 1MXX to his own accounts), I came across something very interesting. 

 

The following is a summary :

 

Deloxxxx was the auditor of 1MXX. To sign off the accounts, they demanded that 1MXX proved that they still own the USD2 billion cash by bringing them back to Malaysia.

 

Of course, if JL still has the USD2 billion cash, he could easily just transfered them back. Unfortunately, he has already spent most of the money and has only about USD300 mil left. So, JL came up with a simple trick.

 

He transferred his USD300 mil to 1MXX, then got 1MXX to transfer the money back to him. Then he transferred to 1MXX, and 1MXX transfered back to him again. They repeated the process a few times. The several rounds of transfers from JL's accounts to 1MXX was then presented to Deloxxxx as proof of money coming home.

 

Guess what ? Deloxxxx accepted them as evidence. They were satisfied and signed off the accounts.     

 

This made me wonder whether that was the way Red Chips created their cash. For those uninitiated, Malaysian investors had long been perplexed by Red Chips listed on Bursa. Almost all of them are penny stocks, but they hold huge amount of cash. The cash is usually several times their market capitalisation. This leads many investors to feel that they are undervalued (backed by so much cash !!!) and are hence safe to invest in. But almost all these companies eventually got into troubles and some were delisted. Many investors suffered permanent losses.   

 

Malaysian investors clearly smell something fishy, but nobody can explain what is happening. The cash seemed to be real !!! In one occasion, some investors visited a particular Red Chip in its home country and was shown the documentary evidence of their cash holding in the bank.  

 

After reading the Billion Dollar Whxxx, I think we might have found the answer. The Red Chips' accounts are audited once in a year. During that few days when the auditors are around, they will borrow money and transferred them into their bank accounts (the lender can place restrictive covenants on the accounts such that money cannot be moved out without their consent).

 

When the auditors look at the bank accounts, the money is there !!! So, they happily sign off.

 

Easy, isn't it ? 

 

For more information, please get hold a copy of the Billion Dollar Whxxx. There are many fascinating details inside.

  GoldenShares likes this.
 
qqq3 Icon...u are Ekovest share holder.....

In the Billion $ Whale.....we learn that Najib did not change his mind about Bandar Malaysia and Ekovest /China company......We learn that Beijing did not sign off on the deal.

there is a difference......moral of the story...Beijing is the still the smartest.....and most responsible and that is why Mahathir can negotiate with Beijing....and Ekovest? Ekovest not that smart.
24/09/2018 9:54 AM
qqq3 Very likely Joe Low and Ekovest are business partners.
24/09/2018 9:55 AM
qqq3 Joe Low's host in Shanghai is Greenland Chairman...this according to the book.
24/09/2018 9:57 AM
qqq3 I may be a trader....but I have never lost a single sen to Red chips and never make a single sen from Red Chip...and I don't need the book to tell me not to play with Red Chips.
24/09/2018 10:05 AM
paperplane Ya. AUDITOR....... Hehe hehe
24/09/2018 10:06 AM
CharlesT Specially dedicated to KYY who now treats you as his best friend...lol
24/09/2018 10:08 AM
qqq3 plane.....Auditors are also business men...and Joe Low attitude is there is not a single businessman ( or politician) he cannot convert.......
24/09/2018 10:09 AM
CharlesT Maybe....maybe as at 31 Dec 2018 Xinquan still can how their cash per share of Rm1.50+ in their bank ac
24/09/2018 10:10 AM
qqq3 too bad for sslee.
He thought he can make a lot of money following KYY into Xinquan....

but in Xinquan, KYY made the biggest mistake of his life.....

talk about luck.....lol.
24/09/2018 10:31 AM
qqq3 charles....on hindsight, it is obvious this xinuan is a sting operation from day 1.


actually no need hindsight.....
24/09/2018 10:34 AM
smalltimer Just found out ka??
24/09/2018 10:40 AM
CharlesT Posted by qqq3 > Sep 24, 2018 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

charles....on hindsight, it is obvious this xinuan is a sting operation from day 1.


actually no need hindsight.....

U tell this to KYY and see whether he will give u any more tips in future
24/09/2018 10:57 AM
Icon8888 Maxwell RM341 mil cash

Xidelang RM722 mil cash

Xingquan RM1 billion cash

China Stationery RM1.8 billion cash

geng
24/09/2018 11:00 AM
qqq3 charles...I ok one....I follow the wisdom....rigid is death, flexible is Life.
24/09/2018 11:04 AM
qqq3 Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 24, 2018 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

Maxwell RM341 mil cash

Xidelang RM722 mil cash

Xingquan RM1 billion cash

China Stationery RM1.8 billion cash

geng

=================

so much ah?

all Joe Low school.
24/09/2018 11:05 AM
qqq3 so when will the auditors be forced to cough out every sen they earned from 1 MDB and Red Chips?
24/09/2018 11:12 AM
VenFx OMG, dark loops everywhere in Bursa ?
WTF
24/09/2018 12:20 PM
pussycats oh like that kah? Jolo goto hell
24/09/2018 3:39 PM
speakup anybody know when all this Red Chips (Xingquan, msports, etc) listed? During Tun M time? Badawi time? Najib time?
25/09/2018 11:48 AM
hellbender the auditors in charge were negligent. Full STOP. They were supposed to do event after reporting date audit. They ought to have obtained the bank statements to proof ending balance of cash... The way the book was written was as if they used the deposit slips to proof cash inflows but not cash outflows. In cases like this it is hard not to suspect that the auditors colluded with the culprits and management of 1MDB.
25/09/2018 1:08 PM
why_no_dividend Why Hibiscus no dividend no problem but Red chips are?
25/09/2018 1:13 PM
qqq3 why_no_dividend > Sep 25, 2018 01:13 PM | Report Abuse

Why Hibiscus no dividend no problem but Red chips are?
===============


not its time yet?
25/09/2018 1:15 PM
3iii If you do not trust the management, vote with your feet.

Don't waste time on even trying to understand the business.
25/09/2018 7:37 PM
smalltimer Its a very old trikeey...simetimes call kite flting too..
04/12/2018 7:53 AM
5354_ How abt HRC, Hibiscus? They got pay good dividend?
04/12/2018 9:05 AM
5354_ Red chips not listed when Najib time? No wonder he was kicked out in GE14. Got hear Pak Lah or Tun M losing in GE?
04/12/2018 9:09 AM
KAQ4468 Maxwell RM341 mil cash

Xidelang RM722 mil cash

Xingquan RM1 billion cash

China Stationery RM1.8 billion cash



waaaaaaa.....cilakak
04/12/2018 9:11 AM
rajachulan The auditor is working for the company, the banker is working for the company...the politician is working for the company...the whole mechanism is working for the company... as long as the company is paying...
04/12/2018 9:28 AM

(Icon) A Riddle For You

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Fri, 7 Sep 2018, 12:36 PM


Sell A, then Buy B.

 

.... followed by .... 

 

Buy A, then Sell B.

 

What is A ? What is B ? 

 

I will post the answers as we move closer to year end.

 

Be patient ......

  Be the first to like this.
 
hollandking A Jaws B Lion
07/09/2018 3:56 PM
Choivo Capital jaks and layhong gua.
07/09/2018 3:57 PM
hollandking BUt my guess in the end, will sell both
07/09/2018 3:57 PM
hollandking what, layhong also buy????
07/09/2018 3:57 PM
godhand A Airasia B Jaks
07/09/2018 4:12 PM
lizi does A and B the starting alphabet? if not i guess A is lion, B is jaks gua.
07/09/2018 4:17 PM
lizi seriously? why u buy knm one?

Alex™ My Knm lose until ahma cannot recognize
07/09/2018 14:20
07/09/2018 4:20 PM
lizi is the riddle related to uncle ah? uncle action now? haha...
07/09/2018 4:23 PM
Op3rs wa ini apa riddle ah uncle icon. so little cluues.
07/09/2018 4:38 PM
Invest_Sensibly Icon8888 started buy jaks at RM1.17.

I started at RM0.835. I already win half war.
07/09/2018 4:40 PM
Invest_Sensibly Icon8888 already suffers paper lost of 30%
07/09/2018 4:58 PM
SALAM Lion King is whispering to to Uncle Koon....
But IBs are still raping the old uncle.......
07/09/2018 5:08 PM
kcchongnz Posted by kchia > Sep 7, 2018 02:38 PM | Report Abuse
A= jaks, B= lionind


"Margin call" and "forced" to sell A, but actually thought could make money with B, as there was euphoria in B with many buy calls. Easy to make money like that with cooperation by "others",like before, although I doubt he believed B is a good long-term investment as this was mentioned before. Only can manipulate sentiments of the public and make quick money if there is concerted efforts.

Now A keeps on dropping in share price as there was no more concerted efforts. Likely margin calls as banks have to protect themselves first. Instead of letting it to be "margin calls", make the top up. So sell B to top up for A.

Makes sense?
07/09/2018 6:19 PM
probability thanks for sharing your opinion KC..thumbs up!
07/09/2018 6:25 PM
kcchongnz But it is not so much of "buying" A. If it is so, it has to appear in Bursa announcement. It is more of a "top up" of margin.

Just a guess.
07/09/2018 6:32 PM
lizi no more selling A announcement despite price dropping drastically could means "top up" of margin..just a guess too..
07/09/2018 6:38 PM
kcchongnz Posted by Alex™ > Sep 7, 2018 02:20 PM | Report Abuse
My Knm lose until ahma cannot recognize


Alex, I know you have found FA has no use making money in Bursa. But it does help you to avoid losses, big losses.

You may read a couple of my many articles in i3investor regarding KNM below to understand why FA is important, not only in Bursa, but all stock markets in the world. Just a suggestion.

Hope, a psychological pitfall in investing
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51962.jsp

A Christmas reflection on the perils of investing
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/43909.jsp4133
07/09/2018 6:51 PM
kyosan A = ASIA KNIGHT (8x revenue already) B= any
07/09/2018 6:52 PM
Tom Should be golden chance to Holland....lol

(Icon) Jaks Resources (1) - Too Cheap To Be Ignored. Golden Chance To Accumulate
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/167135.jsp
07/09/2018 9:46 PM
qqq3 kcchong..

plenty of example of so called value investor shares rout.....if not sure look at your own portfolio.
07/09/2018 10:38 PM
qqq3 Sapura $ 4 to 40 sen

institution shares....PNB shares
07/09/2018 10:39 PM
cheoky A is jaks, B is ranhill
07/09/2018 10:51 PM
qqq3 A is icon B is KYY?
07/09/2018 10:54 PM
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Sep 7, 2018 10:38 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong..
plenty of example of so called value investor shares rout.....if not sure look at your own portfolio.

How the hell you know how my portfolio is doing?

I will write about it next in i3investor.

So can you guess how my portfolio will be doing?

Make a guess.
08/09/2018 12:51 AM
cheoky dogmatic value investing is not good, without value investing sense is worse. keep learning is the only way.
08/09/2018 1:03 AM
TakeProfits Icon888, those that we buy, you are selling to us fools. Those we sell, you collect. I won't fall into that trap of anyone. I will research my own stocks and still make money out of them. You asking us to follow you arh! Pergi lah...Saya bukan bodoh...tahu!!
08/09/2018 4:29 AM
TakeProfits Don't follow anybody like they pulling your nose. Sure way to go to holland. Just do your own research and careful cos everyone has their opinions. Nothing is certain for sure. Don't loose your underwear and then your pants. Kikiki. Hehe. Jon...howdy you.
08/09/2018 4:36 AM
TakeProfits A is Teh Tarik. B is roti canai...hehe. Stop all this guessing game. All the innocent ones, please stop simply following people as though they are really, really have your interests at heart. Don't loose your pants, ok. Think carefully before you jump...msyvr safe landing OR longkang full of shit!!
08/09/2018 4:40 AM
coldinvestor 中秋节要到了 !
08/09/2018 7:53 AM
Adrian Tiong Meng Wei Is Jaks and toyoink.. related to power plant in vietnam
08/09/2018 8:51 AM
newbie911 Skpress...vs
08/09/2018 9:04 AM
qqq3 cheoky

be a trader...rigid is death, flexible is life.
08/09/2018 10:05 AM
Alex™ my biggest loss so far in my life of trading. Down RM3k in a single position. KNM gg

pls help me push up to exit breakeven, haha...

kc sifu, thx....I need to hone my FA more...
08/09/2018 10:18 AM
hollandking pure trader play will always end in destruction.
08/09/2018 10:19 AM
qqq3 hollandking

trading does not mean play contra.....although u may.

Best is open internet cash account, no contra account....and trade. This prevents over trading.

Strict buy and hold and value investors did poorly ......because this is the era for traders.
08/09/2018 10:30 AM
tecpower 關稅戰敲響半導體警鐘 本地業者或因禍得福


http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/428152
08/09/2018 10:37 AM
hollandking full trader play i dont agree, in the long run bcoz of the frequent in and out, sure burnt, BUT if a mixed of trader+investor is safer.
The pure trader meaning dont care fundamental, just CHART only. These type of play in the long run guaranteed HOLLAND.
08/09/2018 10:37 AM
qqq3 Misunderstanding...

people think FA and TA....

there is a third way.....

It is business sense ......business sense first and last....and some understanding of Balance Sheet and risks doesn't hurt.


Eg....recent rally in technology stocks Vitrox, Gtronics, MI......u cannot explain it using FA and TA only.
08/09/2018 10:49 AM
qqq3 Those who ride the IT wave last 2 months.....champion traders.
08/09/2018 11:13 AM
qqq3 Those who ride the IT wave last 2 months.....champion traders.

don't know what FA, TA people talking about.
08/09/2018 11:14 AM
Kyou Buy AirAsia, sell Pworth ??
08/09/2018 11:47 AM
tecpower Dollar pops higher after August jobs data show pickup in wage growth
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-hovers-with-weekly-loss-ahead-of-jobs-report-2018-09-07
08/09/2018 11:54 AM
whichone Sell all your stocks and buy FD
08/09/2018 3:09 PM
probability FD also now giving negative interest rate la...like Japan

just spend the money as much you can...eat all u want..drink n enjoy
08/09/2018 11:28 PM
qqq3 Posted by qqq3 > Sep 8, 2018 10:30 AM | Report Abuse X

hollandking

trading does not mean play contra.....although u may.

Best is open internet cash account, no contra account....and trade. This prevents over trading.

Strict buy and hold and value investors did poorly ......because this is the era for traders.

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 8, 2018 10:49 AM | Report Abuse X

Misunderstanding...

people think FA and TA....

there is a third way.....

It is business sense ......business sense first and last....and some understanding of Balance Sheet and risks doesn't hurt.


Eg....recent rally in technology stocks Vitrox, Gtronics, MI......u cannot explain it using FA and TA only.

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 8, 2018 11:14 AM | Report Abuse X

Those who ride the IT wave last 2 months.....champion traders.

don't know what FA, TA people talking about.

===============


like that also can get flagged one....go figure.
09/09/2018 11:44 AM
Invest_Sensibly Buy Orion and sell Pworth.

Then buy Pworth and sell Orion.
09/09/2018 12:31 PM
moneykj My top choice: Evergreen
09/09/2018 3:16 PM
gangnam Lol...yup ur right..sold A???? and bought B?????..as patience has it's virtue..btw just love ur past analysis on this two..and will wait for ur new analysis as we move closer to year end..
10/09/2018 12:52 AM
speakup A = Airasia larh
B = Boustead larh
12/11/2018 2:32 PM
abang_misai Agreeg!
04/01/2019 7:32 AM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (4) - Doing Reasonably Well

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Wed, 29 Aug 2018, 11:56 AM


1. Latest Quarter Result

 

Yesterday, Jaks released its June 2018 quarter. Please refer to table below :-

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) Earning declined from RM17.8 mil to RM12.7 mil. Who is the culprit ? Surprisingly, it is not the property division, which has attracted most attention recently due to the Star Media court case. The property division's operating loss maintained at more or less RM13 mil (LAD was maintained at roughly RM8 mil). 

 

(b) The culprit is actually the construction division, which saw its operating profit declined from RM28.7 mil to RM18.6 mil, a drop of RM10.1 mil. This was mostly due to lower revenue of Vietnam IPP project, which declined from RM93 mil to RM63.6 mil. Accordingly, PBT declined from RM25.2 mil to RM16.9 mil. Please refer to table below. 

 

 

The company did not provide explanation on why Vietnam IPP revenue declined. But it could simply be due to status of progress billing. Nothing to be alarmed at, in my opinion. Please note that for two consecutive quarters, Vietnam IPP's PBT margin was maintained at impressive 27%. This is important as the fat margin supports our argument (and assumption) that Vietnam IPP will be the key earning driver going forward. 

 

 

2. Vietnam IPP's Construction Profit Is Merely An Accounting Gimmick ?

 

As we all know (as explained by KYY), Jaks' China partner was the one doing the work while Jaks was allocated a portion of the construction profit. This leads to certain forum members claiming that the construction profit is not real - it is "something that you can see but cannot touch".

 

Is that really the case ? Of course not.

 

Those profit is the building block for its ultimate 30% economic interest in the IPP. At the beginning, Jaks owns zero economic interest in the IPP. As time goes by, the construction profit allocated to it by the China partner will be automatically ploughed into the IPP as capital injection. So it is true that Jaks does not get to lay its hand on the profit. However, as construction progresses, its economic interest in the Vietnam IPP will gradually increase. At the point of completion, it will own 30% of a 2 x 600 MW IPP, without the need to inject much capital.

 

How can it be not real ?         

 

 

3. Next Quarter Result Could Potentially Be Bad

 

Next quarter result might factor in losses related to the RM50 mil Bank Guarantee (if they loss the court case). But it is a one off exceptional item. I think most investors will ignore it and focus on the actual operating figures.

 

 

4. Any Regret Buying Into Jaks ?

 

Nope. So far so good. Price has declined to around 95 sen. But that is peanuts compared to my average cost of RM1.00+.

 

My investment thesis for Jaks remained unchanged. Balance sheet remained reasonably sound with RM460 mil interest bearing debt backed by RM220 mil cash. The group is unlikely to get into financial difficulty.

 

I am happily holding on, with my eyes on end 2019 for potential 100% gain.

 

Have a nice day.

Labels: JAKS
  Nikmon likes this.
 
godhand so far so good. hope u are right good luck
29/08/2018 12:02 PM
rogers123 Holland stock....puncak buy call at 1.20++
29/08/2018 12:31 PM
value88 KYY one hand said he stopped disposing Jaks but another hand keeps disposing (see the company announcement).
Yes, Jaks' ownership on IPP increase when the construction is progressing. Forum member claims the profit is not real because it is not a real cash that Jaks received from the progress of construction but just the increase in the equity owned in IPP, that's why it is not "real".
Whether the Vietnam IPP can make money after its completion in 2020 is a doubt but not confirmed. Btw, take caution that the 10 years-cycle big bear may come before year 2020.
29/08/2018 12:44 PM
valuelurker JAKS JV with CPECC for the IPP is 70:30 with the option of increasing the stake, so saying that they own zero equity at the start is not true

There is a very simple and elegant explanation as to why the 'construction profits' are not real, but that is for another day
29/08/2018 12:52 PM
DK66 No one believes in international accounting standards ? Auditors will allow the recognition of "fake profits"?
29/08/2018 1:41 PM
CharlesT Who are those Auditors on Xinquan and other CHina Co's ac?

Do they follow international ac stds?
29/08/2018 2:20 PM
DK66 DO not confused fraud case with accounting standards.
29/08/2018 2:26 PM
godhand theres other factor that is more important than the number in the book.
if all the number is so accurate. how ppl wash money? how ppl corrupt?
29/08/2018 2:27 PM
CharlesT yongyos Free lunch for big frog jumping here and there without laying a brick and paying a sen for 30% stake in vietnam power plant.... Very good.
29/08/2018 13:25

Is the above statement true?

Besides, I just wonder why nobody cares to clarify the details of IPP with OTB...

Sifu received an invitation to have a site visit on the IPP in vietnam (and maybe he enjoyed more on Kara Ok at night...)....and the answer is a big NO No..

Maybe u guys should belanja him a cup of coffee before sailang non stop in JAKS...
29/08/2018 2:30 PM
CharlesT No point to argue here day n night...get first hand info from Otb...
29/08/2018 2:31 PM
Icon8888 a lot of negative comments

this is because share price is down

just wait until it goes up to 1.50, then everybody will come out and say this is the next Public Bank
29/08/2018 2:43 PM
CharlesT Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 29, 2018 02:43 PM | Report Abuse

a lot of negative comments

this is because share price is down


U sure or not...I see no less negative comments even price was high at RM1.80+
29/08/2018 2:47 PM
CharlesT Many (including myself lah) have been giving not so positive comments when the price was Rm1.20 to Rm1.80...

The comments made are mainly on KYY's modus operandi n IPP wawasan 2020 dreams...not really related to price movement leh
29/08/2018 2:49 PM
apolloang red no wanna buy green just wanna chase ar? hahaha
29/08/2018 2:51 PM
CharlesT yongyos Free lunch for big frog jumping here and there without laying a brick and paying a sen for 30% stake in vietnam power plant.... Very good.
29/08/2018 13:25

Btw, is the above true?

If yes then how did they get such a nice contract in the first place? Somebody open his legs ah
29/08/2018 2:52 PM
godhand u got buy meh apollo? to me not cheap enuff
29/08/2018 2:52 PM
Icon8888 not referring to you lah... I am referring to those other cynics... You are my most respected Koon watcher. I always follow your advice one..

==========

CharlesT

U sure or not...I see no less negative comments even price was high at RM1.80+
29/08/2018 14:47
29/08/2018 2:53 PM
apolloang I bought but not much,wanna sell later....hehe,do some day trading only lah
29/08/2018 2:56 PM
CharlesT Last time Hng33 used to make a lot of trading gain (2 to 3 cents) on JAKS taking full advantage of Koon's pockets

But after Koon decided to leave then more difficult to trade so..and Hng33 has to pay back all his earlier gains
29/08/2018 2:58 PM
apolloang reported profit up yet morning red why not buy?
29/08/2018 2:59 PM
apolloang but I not intended to hold for long so I dare recommend people to buy
29/08/2018 3:01 PM
CharlesT lol...no wonder...
29/08/2018 3:05 PM
hollandking yeah, bcoz last time they tried to milked him and quite succesful, but then he changed his plan.
29/08/2018 8:41 PM
winnerz Thanks for the QR analysis, dude!
29/08/2018 9:02 PM
Lukesharewalker 50 mil not factor in yet....
30/08/2018 12:03 AM
isupertrader Margin call means buy more for me :)
04/09/2018 10:24 AM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (3) - Is Koon Yew Yin Our Friend Or Our Enemy ?

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Thu, 2 Aug 2018, 9:51 AM


KYY volunteers to provide useful information to retail investors through public forums. He had helped certain investors to make money. He had also in numerous occasions led people to lose their pants. So is KYY our ally or he is our adversary, waiting to pounce on us for his own benefit ?

 

In my opinion, he is a bit of both. It depends on stock valuation.

 

When a stock is trading at high level with plenty of profit and fat (for example : Jaks at RM1.80), KYY could be your enemy. If he wants, he could take opportunity to make money out of you.

 

However, when a stock has declined to a very reasonable level, KYY could be your ally. Why ? Let me explain.

 

One type of companies that I don't like to touch are those that the major shareholder only has very limited stake. For example, Hibiscus. Its major shareholder only owns approximately 10% stake. As such, even though I am bullish about the company's prospects, I hesitate to bet big. Ten out of ten PLC bosses resent holding only small stake in their company. After working so hard, most of the value they create will accrue to the rest of the shareholders. This makes them feel like an employee, and they don't like that. Most of the time, they will try to enrich themselves at the expense of the rest.

 

Jaks' CEO also owns very small stake in the company (officially around 10%). Without KYY, I will not dare to buy much. But with his 30% stake, I feel safer.

 

In other words, KYY is my ally when come to Jaks. At least at current depressed level.

  3 people like this.
 
norep To be honest, Stockraider aka General of Holland is good at one thing - helping stock market players 'retire' early. Haha
04/08/2018 1:42 PM
norep And bloody old man Kyy is living on past glory for too long. Always quoting his younger day sucess "I created mudajaya, igb, gamuda, etc", "I spotted "multi bagger" like lihen, latitude etc ALL REPEAT OF GLORY DAYS PAST.

ALL a phase he went through, maybe a lot of luck. Then he started buying jtiasa, China companies (say so good, site visit etc but all bungkus) and now Jaks. Old Man Kyy is on a losing streak, see how long. Maybe will last for the rest of his remaining life. Ego too big, time for him to be taken down a peg or two.

HEY OLD MAN, if you are reading this, your recent record is not very impressive. Please drop your superior attitude, be more humble and start giving us ONE multi bagger instead of your usual "sinking ship" stocks, can or not??!!
04/08/2018 1:51 PM
Up_down Uncle is loaded...so what! Without engaging a capable advisor, then he has to prepare donating most of his wealth to sharks and crocs in the market. His sky high egoism would sufficient to kill him in the market. He is now regret for ditching his former good advisor.
04/08/2018 2:02 PM
norep Hey OLD MAN, u listening? Everyone can see the pimple on your ass.
04/08/2018 2:24 PM
norep General of Holland vs KYY - hard time deciding who is the bigger dipshit.
04/08/2018 2:29 PM
Nikmon @norep , are you idiot, no people is obligate to ensure you earn money, some gain profit from KYY recomendation and some making lose, is normal. if you dont like him, just get lost lah, why blame other people when you making lose, what kind of mentality is this...are seriously idiot, if yest better Stock investing, cause only idiot will blame other when makung lose. super idiot
04/08/2018 2:33 PM
Nikmon @norep , are you idiot, no people is obligate to ensure you earn money, some gain profit from KYY recomendation and some making lose, is normal. if you dont like him, just get lost lah, why blame other people when you making lose, what kind of mentality is this...you are seriously idiot, if yes better Stop investing, cause only idiot will blame other when makung lose. super idiot
04/08/2018 2:34 PM
Up_down We love to see him living in the past glory of success. He has no mistake to learn from the previous picks.
04/08/2018 2:36 PM
norep Hello idiot,

1st you have no idea what Mt track record is, you can only speculate.

2ndly, I have a lot of free time this week cause your mother decided not to visit me. So there.

3rd, under a new Malaysia, I can say what I want. If you don't like, we'll, too bad, boy. Go cry to your mama while she's not spending time with me.
04/08/2018 2:37 PM
norep Some idiots equate critic/comment = blame. Stupids cannot tell the difference.

Tell me to get lost. Next thing they will tell me to go back to China. Haha.
04/08/2018 2:44 PM
norep Unlike some of you stupids, I do my homework. People I listen to icon, kcchong, qqq3, they are people who can talk reason or logic.

Some of you stupids must be Umno/BN members, only good at shutting people up when you don't like what you hear.
04/08/2018 2:49 PM
norep Some genius say "he has no mistake to learn from". I guess KYY was lying when he said he made the worst mistake of his investing life.

3.5 of my brain cells just died when I replied to you, genius. Do the world a favour, end your life.
04/08/2018 3:03 PM
norep KYY with no OTB is like KY with no jelly.
04/08/2018 3:05 PM
stockraider THIS norep really has a very bad & evil heart...u see how he curse KYY below

Posted by norep > Aug 4, 2018 03:03 PM | Report Abuse

Some genius say "he has no mistake to learn from". I guess KYY was lying when he said he made the worst mistake of his investing life.

"3.5 of my brain cells just died when I replied to you, genius. Do the world a favour, end your life."- THIS IS REAL WRONG ON NOREP LOH...!!

HE CURSE KYY TO DIE LOH....WHAT KIND OF PEOPLE LIKE THAT LEH ??

IF KYY IS WRONG, TELL HIM WHERE, WHAT, WHY & HOW WRONG LOH.....!!

BUT DON BE LIKE "NOREP".....AS IF PEOPLE OWE HIM ....A BIG DEAL LOH..!!

AS FOR RAIDER...ONLY EXPOSE KYY WRONG DOING.....RAIDER WILL NEVER NEVER BE LIKE NOREP....MAKE EVIL CURSES LOH....!!
04/08/2018 3:32 PM
cheoky dont buy jaaks buy only at 50cents
04/08/2018 3:37 PM
UMA UMA UMA icon icon i con i con i conned
04/08/2018 3:45 PM
norep Raider aka General of Holland cannot even tell that my post was for up_down, not kyy.

Yah, you dont make evil curse, just call people stupid, pondan and other names when they disagree with you. You must be so proud. Give yourself a medal, general Holland.

How is all your HY machai doing? TP for HY still rm32 haha
04/08/2018 4:09 PM
norep Don't forget how your good heart hantam people when they take profit for HY and you call them pondan, Mr General of Holland. Hahaha
04/08/2018 4:12 PM
norep This is such a wonderful day.
04/08/2018 4:13 PM
norep Stockraider aka General of Holland aka retirement assistant, can please tell us when HY will reach your TP of rm32? You repeat so many times earlier but now very quiet already woh. How come leh....
04/08/2018 4:15 PM
norep General Holland, I miss your often repeated TP for HY leh....
04/08/2018 4:17 PM
norep hahaha
04/08/2018 4:17 PM
stockraider I guest this norep does not exist when General Raider was investing in HY...!!

With his only 28 post, how did he manage to talkcock so much leh ??

People must understand successful investment is simple to say....difficult to do loh....!!

SIMPLE YES LOH....!!
U ONLY HAVE 4 OPTION MAH....!!

1. AVOID
2.BUY
3. HOLD
4. SELL

HENGYUAN HAS MOVE FROM RM 2.00 TO RM 19.50 AND CRASH BACK TO RM 6.00...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO CALL LOH....!!

AS I SAYS RAIDER MAKE A FEW MILLION....WHEN IT IS AT RM 17.00 TO RM 19.00 AND ALMOST LOSE MONIES....WHEN IT ALMOST CRASH BELOW RM 6.00 LOH..!!
RAIDER SAYS....IT IS THRU SKILL AND ABIT OF LUCK RAIDER....THAT RAIDER MAKE A BIT OF MONIES SELLING ALL HENGYUAN LOH...!!

WHY RAIDER DID NOT SELL ALL AT SAY RM 17.00 LOH ??
U THINK RAIDER SIN KA MEH.??...WHAT IF RAIDER SOLD ALL HENGYUAN AT RM 17.00 IT MOVE ALL THE WAY TO RM 30.00 LEH ??

THATS WHY RAIDER NO SELL ALL BCOS WE WILL NEVER KNOW MAH.....!!
DON FORGET AT THAT TIME EPS IS ABOVE RM 3.00 PER SHARE MAH...!!

THUS INVESTING NOT LIKE SINKALAN "NOREP SAY" LOH....THERE IS ALOT OF ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY AND U NEED TO MANAGE IT MAH....!!

MOST IMPORTANT THING, U MANAGE GET OUT NOT LOSING...FROM A WINNING POSITION LOH....!!

AND LEARN FROM IT BE A BETTER INVESTOR LOH....!!

SIKALAN NOVICE NOREP WITH ONLY 28 POST....IS REALLY A NOVICE TALKING COCK LOH.....!!
04/08/2018 4:32 PM
norep @General Holland If there is a lot of element of uncertainty, why did you tell people that die die buy buy hold until TP rm32? Why did you curse other people that have a different view then, Mr HYPOCRITE? You mean at that time got no uncertainty meh haha...

I only have 28 post but I never turn a few million profit into a few thousand, like you. Don't need a lot of post to see how you screwed up big time, got your ass kicked by HY Haha. Trading genius, Mr General Holland.
04/08/2018 4:39 PM
KLCI King Koon Yew Yin, Why you sell JAKS if you claimed it is on Cheap Sale?
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/happyinvest/168202.jsp
04/08/2018 4:42 PM
norep So much element of uncertainty, then WHY did you place so much importance on the then eps rm3? You mean things cannot change with SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY? Tell people die die buy buy must hold with so much uncertainty tsk tsk no wonder your machai leaking blood loh...

You digging a bigger hole for yourself, General Holland, making yourself sound even more bodoh loh.
04/08/2018 4:43 PM
norep How many people here turn a few million profit position into a few thousand on one counter alone? I think not many. Better give yourself a "gold medal" on how to screw up a winning position, Mr General Holland hahaha
04/08/2018 4:46 PM
stockraider THATS WHY RAIDER SAY U R NOVICE LOH....!!

CANNOT TALK LIKE SINKALAN LOH.....!!

IF U WANT TO PROVE U CAN BE A SINKALAN.....PLS RECOMMEND A NAPSHOT STOCK FOR US TO BUY N MAKE ALOT OF MONIES....!!

THEN RAIDER DON DARE TO SAY U R A NOVICE LOH....!!

TALKCOCK LIKE U, WHO DOES NOT KNOW LEH ???

Posted by norep > Aug 4, 2018 04:43 PM | Report Abuse

So much element of uncertainty, then WHY did you place so much importance on the then eps rm3? You mean things cannot change with SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY? Tell people die die buy buy must hold with so much uncertainty tsk tsk no wonder your machai leaking blood loh...

You digging a bigger hole for yourself, General Holland, making yourself sound even more bodoh loh.
04/08/2018 4:48 PM
norep I better be novice than expert like you, recommend people go Holland and turn a winning few million position to just a few thousand loh...

I talk cock people don't lose money. You talk cock people people "retire" woh.... Haha
04/08/2018 4:52 PM
SALAM Come on norep. Take I3 for pleasure reading only. Don't put money into I3 words....No regret forever..
04/08/2018 4:52 PM
norep In Petaling Street, can find nice Gold medal, suitable for a Holland General hahaha
04/08/2018 4:54 PM
norep @salam some people take pleasure in reading, some in writing, some in talking cock. To each his own.
04/08/2018 4:55 PM
norep It's a free Malaysia, don't you know?
04/08/2018 4:56 PM
norep @General Holland please tell us how many post do you think it takes before I learn how to turn a few million profit position into a few thousand? Hahaha
04/08/2018 5:13 PM
stockraider I know u lah...U R a cowardloh...!!....u post post....then runaway loh......!!

Bcos people found out u have no standard & tin kosong loh....!!

So u change identity mah.....!!

Thats why only 28 post....but u talkcock alot loh....!!

posted by norep > Aug 4, 2018 05:13 PM | Report Abuse

@General Holland please tell us how many post do you think it takes before I learn how to turn a few million profit position into a few thousand? Hahaha
04/08/2018 5:26 PM
norep Answer the question, boy General...

If there was so much uncertainty, why did you tell people to die die buy buy hold until rm32? Why did you hantam your detractors then?
04/08/2018 5:44 PM
norep You can insult alllllll you want but people dont need a lot of post to see what a screw up you are, boy. Better go get your gold medal in petaling Street, general Holland.
04/08/2018 5:46 PM
norep Looking at your response, I can tell your ego must be so hurt. Boy, it will pass. Learn to let go quickly otherwise you will turn another few million into few thousand hahaha
04/08/2018 5:50 PM
norep And I can't wait to see what stock you will recommend next, seeing what an expert you are :-)
04/08/2018 5:52 PM
Sslee Dear all,
Don’t be dead serious about life; your life is just play. Every human being should be aware of this every moment of his life, it does not matter what the whole world says about you, it does not matter how significant work you are doing. You must understand that tomorrow morning the world will go on fine without you. Just loosen up your life a little bit, laugh a little more, and involve yourself with people around you. Do things that you think is not so important, do simple things, very important you do simple things. Very important things you are doing in your life, you will become dead serious and don’t be dead now, it’s time will come. This time is to be alive. Take a holiday and what will be will be.

Thank you
04/08/2018 7:05 PM
Sslee Dear probability,
I remember you are the first one to give your support on our requisition on HRC. I thank you and I am sorry I was not given the chance to convince other shareholders to vote for resolutions 11 and 12.
I can understand your hatred toward Mr. Koon for his manipulating call on HRC:
He is guilty of over-promoting Hengyuan to very high price and then suddenly sold off his total holding with belong blog explanation.
Hengyuan: A blessing in disguise dated March 7 2018. (HRC RM 9.18)
He then subsequently condemns HRC and causing HRC price drop further on following article:
Sendai P/E 8 why buy and not Hengyuan P/E 2 dated: April 1 2018 (HRC RM 7.65)
Why Hengyuan is falling so rapidly dated: April 4 2018 (HRC RM 6.15)
Then the next day with this article that he is buying back HRC at RM 6.15 and start to promote HRC again.
Hengyuan-investor overreacted dated: April 5 2018 (HRC RM 6.87)
Hengyuan- why I suddenly buy back dated April 7 2018 (HRC RM8.35)
Hengyuan-logical discussion dated April 7 2018
Hengyuan –What I should I do next? Dated: April 10 (HRC RM 8.93)

For me I once written to SC and Bursa,
We each have our duty and responsibility to uphold integrity and build public trust on companies listed in Bursa Malaysia. Many times I have received many friendly advices that as savvy investor just enjoy the ride when time is good (insider manipulation) and dump the share to other to hold when the music stop. I refuse to accept such advices as I believe in the truth and nothing but the truth and shall pursue the truth till the end with the help of very helpful auditor, SC and Bursa.
As of the HRC, I have rebutted many ppl that simply spreading fear that HRC is red chip company without attending AGM, talking to the board or management team. The truth is the management is very happy that Hengyuan took over SHELL because SHELL do not want to commit further capital for upgrading and intend to shut down production, lay off employees and only maintain PD as storage and transit Port for SHELL Singapore. Henguan had committed their resource (Experience, technology and money (all borrowing from shell to Hengyang)). The management teams I talk to are very grateful to Hengyuan and many of them are early buyers of HRC share and some are driving BMW car now. (So someone losses is other people gain)

Thank you.
04/08/2018 9:52 PM
probability Sslee, thanks for the detail sharings above.

My understanding of external market dynamics on its production margins are perfectly inline with its reported performance.

As such never had any wrong perception of HRC management.
04/08/2018 10:37 PM
Livermore why u keep promote jaks...this stock is dead, pls don't pull ppl to support ur mistake, mistake is mistake misy
04/08/2018 11:48 PM
Mingxing25 Don’t believe kyy lar, he didn’t show the bright way but holland
05/08/2018 2:37 AM
stockraider OF COURSE AS AN 85 OLD ELDERLY MAN AN A TYCOON STATUTURE PEOPLE WILL NORMALLY RESPECT U LOH...!! BUT U HAVE ABUSE UR POSITION THRU MISLEADING DIRECTION & ADVICE WITH YOUR SELF INTEREST, SENDING ALOT OF PEOPLE TO HOLLAND, WHO WILL RESPECT U LEH ??

U NEED TO BELIEVE IN KARMA, UR MISDEED WILL ALWAYS COMEBACK TO HAUNT U LOH..!!

Why do People Criticize and Put Other People Down? Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Sun, 5 Aug 2018, 11:13 AM
After I posted my article “Jaks is on cheap sale” on i3investor.com, in which I admitted my mistake in borrowing too much money to buy. I notice that most of the commentators on Jaks are being branded as abuse and often deleted by Editor.

Why do some people criticize and put people down?
Of course, it is quite acceptable that a person criticises someone else in order to let him avoid a certain mistake in the future. For example, a boss can criticize an employee when he makes a mistake or a parent can criticize his child for the same reason. Sometimes, a good and sincere friend would criticise me for my mistake. But he did it in a polite manner. In fact, all my sincere friends do not judge me.

But why do some people seem to criticize and put others down for no apparent reason?
I notice most of the critics on i3investor like to criticise and put others down so that they want people to think that they are so clever and successful. These critics are most likely poor and very egoistic. Most likely they are little day traders and statistics shows that most day traders lose money due truncation cost. But they want people to think they are really successful. They just want to put you down in order to steal a quick victory.


How to deal with people who criticize and put you down
The best way is not to respond. Silence can be annoying and disappointing to the critics. That is why I very seldom respond. These critics are jealous of my success, achievement and popularity.

If the person's intention were really bad and if he criticized you just to feel good then he will certainly keep doing it over and over. But if I do not respond he would feel annoyed and disappointed.

When I first started posting articles on i3investor, I saw so many senseless critics and I complained to the Editor. That is why the Editor created a special column for my articles and no one can comment.
My intention in posting so frequently is noble and mean well. I am old and fairly wealthy. I like to share my accumulated knowledge with readers.

I wish to take this opportunity to inform you that the Perak State Government has appointed me as one of the 7 members of the Advisory Council. You can see that I have posted 2 articles, namely “How to improve Perak’s economy and The importance of Start-up companies”.
I hope all my critics will read this article and learn to be better persons.

EVEN THE MOST TACTFUL SSLEE, DID NOT SPEAK SO HIGHLY OF U LOH...!!

I can understand your hatred toward Mr. Koon for his manipulating call on HRC:
He is guilty of over-promoting Hengyuan to very high price and then suddenly sold off his total holding with belong blog explanation.
Hengyuan: A blessing in disguise dated March 7 2018. (HRC RM 9.18)
He then subsequently condemns HRC and causing HRC price drop further on following article:
Sendai P/E 8 why buy and not Hengyuan P/E 2 dated: April 1 2018 (HRC RM 7.65)
Why Hengyuan is falling so rapidly dated: April 4 2018 (HRC RM 6.15)
Then the next day with this article that he is buying back HRC at RM 6.15 and start to promote HRC again.
Hengyuan-investor overreacted dated: April 5 2018 (HRC RM 6.87)
Hengyuan- why I suddenly buy back dated April 7 2018 (HRC RM8.35)
Hengyuan-logical discussion dated April 7 2018
Hengyuan –What I should I do next? Dated: April 10 (HRC RM 8.93)

For me I once written to SC and Bursa,
We each have our duty and responsibility to uphold integrity and build public trust on companies listed in Bursa Malaysia. Many times I have received many friendly advices that as savvy investor just enjoy the ride when time is good (insider manipulation) and dump the share to other to hold when the music stop. I refuse to accept such advices as I believe in the truth and nothing but the truth and shall pursue the truth till the end with the help of very helpful auditor, SC and Bursa.
As of the HRC, I have rebutted many ppl that simply spreading fear that HRC is red chip company without attending AGM, talking to the board or management team. The truth is the management is very happy that Hengyuan took over SHELL because SHELL do not want to commit further capital for upgrading and intend to shut down production, lay off employees and only maintain PD as storage and transit Port for SHELL Singapore. Henguan had committed their resource (Experience, technology and money (all borrowing from shell to Hengyang)).
05/08/2018 11:43 AM
norep Hey OLD MAN KYY

Get off your noble narcissistic High horse, will you? In your case, you are not responding with silence, you are responding with your own blog sans comments and criticism.

No different from Najib who wanted to silence his critics. And don't get all idealistic with your appointment, Najib was appointed by the people, same for that dictator Mahathir, who created the whole mess in the 1st place. Your appointment means jack shit to the man on the street.

KYY, if you are so noble and honourable, open your postings & blog to comments, and then you can CHOOSE to stay silent. Until then please don't be a dipshit and tell others that silence is the best response when you can BAN all comments on your postings.

Your strategy of dealing with critics is just an easy way of avoiding them, to have the loudspeaker all to yourself.

I am not as clever or successful as you but if you think I'm jealous of your success, we should meet. You can take a look at how I live and tell me if I am a loser.

But I think it will be easier for you at your age to just avoid your critics, isn't it? Don't really blame you. At your advance age and with your wealth, I would do the same.
05/08/2018 3:49 PM
norep Hey KYY,

I do hope you don't advise the ipoh council like the way you advise the investors on i3, otherwise the ipoh council projects may have a good chance of going to Holland.
05/08/2018 3:54 PM
lching KYY cut his JAKS to 13% and his wife to 7%, are you still feel comfortable, icon8888 ?
17/08/2018 3:48 PM
apolloang remember the old saying,what goes up must come down,what goes up mustn't chase,only buy low and sell high,buy red sell green and don't buy green and sell red......hahaha
17/08/2018 3:51 PM
5354 Last time KYY not promote buy >RM 1.5? Why cut loss <RM 1?
17/08/2018 3:53 PM

(Icon) Jaks Resources (2) - Ignore The Wild Talks And Hysteria. Stick To Fundamentals

Author: Icon8888   |  Publish date: Tue, 31 Jul 2018, 12:44 PM


1. Introduction

 

I have never been so lonely before. Since publishing my Jaks article on 27 July 2018, comments poured in from friends and foes. 99.99999% are negative. Even my relative called me to express concern (which I would like to convey my appreciation, the input is helpful and I duly took note of it).

 

I have to admit that bargain hunting is never an easy thing to do. Looking back, I have never been successful in buying at the bottom. Most of the time, after I took position, the stock continues to decline. But if share price indeed is deviating too much from fundamentals, the stock will eventually rebounce and generate positive return.

 

As mentioned before, I am very much an earning person. I buy a stock only if I am comfortable that the company is delivering reasonable profit. With this in mind, I conducted a quick study of Jaks' income statement.

 

 

2. Historical P&L

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) Property division has not been doing well in latest two quarters, chalking up operating losses of approximately RM10 mil per quarter. Major reason is because of Liquidated and Ascertained Damages. Please refer to blue highlighted.

 

(b) However, Jaks only owns 51% of the property subsidiary. As such, the losses were diluted by positive Minority Interest. Please refer to yellow highlighted.

 

(c) Construction division is the star performer. The Vietnam power plant project commands very high profit margin of 27% (being RM25.2 mil / RM93 mil x 100%). Please refer below.

 

   

 

The domestic construction project only broke even. No wonder KYY has been nagging them to reduce exposure.

 

 

3. Prospective Earnings 

 

Based on the above historical data, I came up with a crude financial model for Jaks' P&L.

 

First of all, Vietnam IPP could generate RM108 mil operating profit per annum (based on RM27 mil annualised). 

 

Jaks' finance charges is approximately RM7 mil per quarter. This translates into RM28 mil per annum.

 

Property division incurs RM10 mil losses per quarter, meaning full year losses would be RM40 mil. As Jaks holds 51%, its share of losses would be RM20 mil.

 

Tax is quite minimum.

 

Putting everything together, net profit is approximately RM108 mil less RM28 mil less RM20 mil = RM60 mil.

 

This is more or less in line with analysts' forecast of approximately RM80 mil per annum. Please refer below.

 

 

 

In my opinion, my model is on the conservative side. I have assumed interest charges of RM28 mil and property division losses of RM40 mil per annum. As property division's losses might have already factored in a huge portion of the interest charges (the bulk of liability is in that division), there could be a bit of double counting. 

 

 

4. Balance Sheets

 

When buying into a stock, one very pertinent question is whether the company will be facing liquidity crunches in the near to medium term (I am not Warren Buffett, I don't hold indefinitely). Let's look at the balance sheets.

 

 

Key observations :

 

(a) Receivables totalled RM1,010 mil. Payables RM841 mil. Please refer to blue boxes above.

 

There are wild talks that receivables are bad. For me, receivables are just receivables. To jump into conclusion that receivables is equal to Bad Debt is simply fear mongering. Which PLC does not have receivables ?

 

Jaks has been in business for long time. I am sure they have the proper mechasim to deal with collection.

 

In this regard, my most simplistic interpretation is that Jaks' payables can be fully settled by its receivables. Period.

 

(b) Jaks has total borrowings of RM571 mil. Is this something we should worry about ? To be sure, this level of borrowing is not something to be sneezed at. But this is mitigated by RM188 mil cash (please refer to red box above).

 

On top of that, the company completed disposal of several parcels of land to Sunway in April 2018. That will result in cash inflow of RM167 mil. 

 

(Source : 2017 Annual Report) 

 

This will boost cash level to RM355 mil. 

 

The company will be undertaking a rights issue of Warrants to raise RM60 mil plus. Cash holding will hence become RM415 mil.

 

Of course, there is the infamous RM50 mil bank guarantee being called. I am not sure how much has that been reflected in the March 2018 quarterly report. Lets' just add the entire amount to the borrowings, which will then increase to RM621 mil. 

 

Net borrowings will then be RM621 mil less RM415 mil = RM206 mil. 

 

This is more manageable. I think over the next one to two years, liquidity shouldn't be a problem.

 

That is good enough for me. Like I mentioned before, I don't intend to hold indefinitely.

 

 

5. Dividend

 

Unlike toll roads that take 4 to 5 years to ramp up revenue (through growth of traffic), IPP can scale up revenue to maximum capacity from day one. So the gestation period is much shorter. Based on publicly available information, the company's 30% stake in Vietnam IPP could potentially generate RM200 mil net profit per annum upon completion.

 

Due to lack of information, I am not able to tell whether the profit could be distributed by the IPP to its shareholders. But the likelihood is that it could. For IPPs, the ability to distribute dividend is very much dependent upon its funding structure. Based on normal funding structure of 25% equity 75% debt (which is the case for Jaks' Vietnam IPP), the project is usually in a position to pay out dividend (just look at YTL Power, etc). Only in extreme cases such as Jimah Power (owned by Negeri Sembilan royalty and subsequently acquired by 1MDB) which has equity of only 10% (the remaining 15% funded by capital market through junior debt issuance, etc), the shareholders will not be able to enjoy dividend for long period of time.

 

China companies are not known for being generous on dividend. But IPP is different. The cash if not distributed will have no use for anybody. If Jaks indeed can receive dividend from the Vietnam IPP (which I believe would have been negotiated with their Chinese partner at the very beginning), the steady stream of cash inflow will have positive impact on balance sheets for many years to come.    

 

Anybody has the relevant information, please let me know. I am happy to incorporate them in the article.

 

 

6. Concluding Remarks 

 

Jaks' share price stabilised a bit today. A huge buyer has surfaced to mop up the shares. However, the purpose of my article today is not for chest thumping. It is too early to celebrate. There could still be a long night ahead before sunrise. 

 

The purpose of this article is more to provide an objective analysis of Jaks' earning prospects and financial position. Hopefully this will allow people who are interested in taking position to have a better feel.

 

Have a nice day.

Labels: JAKS
  2 people like this.
 
Fabien Extraordinaire Icon, if you want to have exposure to IPP with a more trustworthy management with good track record. why dont u have a look at MFCB?
31/07/2018 8:48 PM
robot888 Icon, JAKS' receivables are timed bomb !!! It is NOT SAFE to assume payables can be fully settled by its receivables period.
31/07/2018 9:06 PM
feimah Don't fall in love in any stock..
31/07/2018 9:24 PM
kelvin61 There are so many shares selling below 1 times book value, on single digit prospective pe and selling at near 52 week low with good management. Why in the world would anyone with good investment knowledge want to risk buying a lemon stock that has never performed well throughout its listing history. Remember the golden rule, always buy a stock that is well managed. This is not one of them, cheers.
31/07/2018 9:26 PM
robot888 icon, honestly r u holding alot at high prices?
31/07/2018 9:29 PM
Livermore let it drop first...only buy
31/07/2018 10:22 PM
Nikmon seem like a lot contra kaki sold their share this morning, btw, there are 25 million worth of share bought by someone just today at price 1.03 - 1.05, definitely ICON888 is not alone and a lot of them believe in the fundamental of JAKS. lets the time prove who is wrong or right....looking forward to Q2 result as it going to record high.
31/07/2018 10:28 PM
DK66 Icon, you straight line projection on the vietnam construction profit does not reflect the accelerating pace of the activities going into 2018 and 2019. Based on the progress of similar power project in vietnam, it is likely to see 30% work done in 2018 and 50% in 2019.
31/07/2018 11:24 PM
bluebiznet This dk66 sounds like one of the insider from jaks or cpecc..acceleration ... Talk cock amd mislead the followers ok lah. Or just an ordinary investor who cant bear to see jaks price slump 50%? By the time jaks kyy margin crisis he disappear. Now resurface after jaks up a few cents... Haiz.. Stock market... Macam macam orang LOL
01/08/2018 12:15 AM
bluebiznet Anyway he is one the good boy praised by kyy over his sensible comments... The other one disappeared LOL
01/08/2018 12:16 AM
bluebiznet When there is 20m shares buy there is also 20m shares sold... How u guys know is not their gang job? This is absoluete peanut to create scene like this
01/08/2018 12:18 AM
bluebiznet For them
01/08/2018 12:18 AM
DK66 bluebiznet, I hope you don't disappear when the power plant is completed.
01/08/2018 7:09 AM
Livermore Vietnam project got hidden unrelease risk news...will dip further before official news
01/08/2018 7:25 AM
DK66 It is easy to verify my statement, just check up all the qtrly reports. Look up for the revenues from vietnam, see if there was any increase QoQ.
01/08/2018 8:11 AM
1Bid Good article. I will buy to hold if the price ever comes back to 1.17 or break the 1.23.

KYY has just found his new partner. Koon+Icon begins~
01/08/2018 8:13 AM
SALAM Could be the first taste of his own resipe : Sialang with margin finance from friendly IBs..haha
01/08/2018 9:12 AM
angelol Icon, have accounted for the dilution effect of PP?
01/08/2018 10:14 AM
oohlala All this articles promoting IPP is a sure earn business. It is too simplistic to jump into that conclusion without detail study of the power purchase agreement, fuel cost structure, management team (affecting reliability of the plant) etc.
01/08/2018 12:17 PM
3iii If a stock is sold down on margin call, I will let it drop until the margin call is over.
01/08/2018 4:06 PM
albert787378 time to have a look at malaysia furniture industry

Trump to propose 25% tariff on US$200b of Chinese imports

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/01/trump-to-propose-25pct-tariff-on-us$200b-of-chinese-imports/
01/08/2018 5:18 PM
paperplane Fundamental?? Nope. Fundamental proof management sucks,which why someone need to step in
01/08/2018 11:48 PM
paperplane Powerplant in Vietnam got political risk one
01/08/2018 11:49 PM
ks55 Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Jul 29, 2018 12:33 PM | Report Abuse

Like it or not, Pacific Star has to delay by at least 3 years.
Due for completion August 2016, cannot deliver VP by August 2019.

https://www.propsocial.my/property/3891/petaling-jaya/pacific-star

BG 50 million plus LAD 10 million plus Interest on bridging loan plus Cost Increase due to Inflation plus plus plus Dying Evolve Mall..........Jaks sure go holland.

If forced selling on KYY's pledged securities continues, down trend for Jaks may take 4 months if everyday net selling by KYY is 2 million for 80 market days.

You must stay away from Jaks for at least 4 months to avoid caught by KYY factor........
01/08/2018 11:57 PM
Karlos IPP is very capital intensive biz. It can be very highly profitable but with tremendous high risks. Financing, construction, operation, environmental, counterparty, political ect must be carefully considered. Just look at what happen to IPP plant in India constructed n partly owned by Mudajaya but turn out to be a nightmare.
02/08/2018 8:43 AM
Jonathan Keung a good write up but Vietnam IPP investment is known for their hiccups. Jaks is a not true blue builder. imagine a single development project at PJ ( also faced problems ) that itself is speaks of the company abilities. dividend wise never known for its fat paychecks
02/08/2018 9:24 AM
Karlos The cosrtruction job is just an arrangement with Chinese partner to reward Jaks for getting IPP license, and the so called profit is just notional, not real.
02/08/2018 9:40 AM
DK66 If someone is willing to pay 100,000 to build a house. He is to pay you 100,000 over 10 years plus interest. It only costs you 70,000 to build the house. Is the 30,000 construction profit real? Of course it is real. You will receive the profit over the next 10 years with interest.
02/08/2018 10:01 AM
TheGardener This is example of "Value Trap"!!!

Sell all the way!!!
02/08/2018 10:53 AM
VenFx When all the dust settled , Icon8888 will prove he is right .
I buy totally in Icon8888 view in this article.
02/08/2018 10:56 AM
smalltimer Note..kyy selling
02/08/2018 11:10 AM
KLCI King Jaks similar to Berjaya Group now, you will never know what they are doing based on the financial statements.

All you need to do is assuming & guessing. Technically you are right, but lots of hidden things are not clarified,

For example, 70%:30% JV, how much influence the management of JAKS has over the business? What about cash flow management of JV? How much $$ Jaks need to pump into JV & what is the recovery rate for cost of invesment?


DK66 If someone is willing to pay 100,000 to build a house. He is to pay you 100,000 over 10 years plus interest. It only costs you 70,000 to build the house. Is the 30,000 construction profit real? Of course it is real. You will receive the profit over the next 10 years with interest.
02/08/2018 10:01
02/08/2018 3:43 PM
DK66 That is why i said you have to do a lot of research to find out answers to your questions, not just wondering. Always assuming the darker side of the story will not help you getting the true picture. There are answers to some of your questions in the JV agreement with CPECC as announced to bursa. There are certain answers in the CPECC website. And you need to study the latest vietnam gov't circular to understand the tariff structure. Since you don't trust anyone here, you need to do some homework to be confidence.

There is no doubt that 40% of a US$1.87b power plant in vietnam will have huge potential earnings. However, you have to be comfortable enough to buy. Otherwise, you have to let it go.
02/08/2018 8:50 PM
Jonathan Keung caveat emptor
04/08/2018 6:00 AM
stockraider Remember this conman kyy loh....!!

Jaks is on cheap sale. IF CHEAP WHY U SALE LEH ??

Koon Yew Yin 4 Aug 2018
From the company announcement, you can see that my wife and I have bought more than 150 million Jaks with margin loan. Due to the depressed property market and the bad publicity of the legal battle with Star, many shareholders are dumping their shares. When the price plunged, we have to sell to meet margin call which is a vicious cycle. U SELL BCOS U R WORRIED U MAKE A WRONG INVESTMENT & U TRY TO REDUCE EXPOSURE LOH..!!

Forced selling will depress the price lower which will create more forced selling until more buyers come forward to support the price.
I was too bullish and bought too many Jaks. It is like I drank too much XO brandy until I vomit. It is not that XO or Jaks is not good, but I had too much of the good thing.
I am ashamed to admit my mistake. This is my worst mistake in share investing in my life. I must remember this mistake and learn from my mistake. KYY TELL U NOW I M SELLING....BUT PLS CONTINUE BUYING THE SHARE LOH....!

As you know, there is always some risk in buying any share. I was so bullish because I thought I could make money as I did in Latitude, Lii Hen and VS Industry, all of which had gone up a few hundred percent within 2.5 years. BTW MOST OF SHARE AFTER KYY START SELLING FELL ALOT LOH....!

My main reason for buying Jaks is its 1,200 MW power plant, generating electricity for the Vietnamese Government. I was so sure that the consortium of 3 Chinese national banks would have examined the power purchase agreement thoroughly before they would finance Rm 7.76 billion for the project. It is like the banks are guaranteeing profit for Jaks.
ASK YOURSELF SHIOK SENDIRI PROFIT, GOT FUNDAMENTAL MEH ?? IT IS LIKE U BUILD A FACTORY...COSTING RM 300K, U MARK GO TO THE BANK FINANCE IT AT RM 500K....U TELL YOURSELF THE EXTRA RM 200K U EARN FROM YOURSELF IS PROFIT & U TELL URSELF SHIOK SENDIRI BUSINESS IS "AAA" LOH..!!

All smart investors should be able to see that the price has been plunging in the last 3 months and take advantage of this cheap sale to buy. CORRECTLOH...PLUNGING BUSINESS U R SELLING...BCOS U KNEW IT IS A LOUSY BUSINESS MAH....!!

Cheap sale is quite rare and you are lucky. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. HA HA...CHEAP SALE HERE IS VERY RARE...BCOS DISHONEST TYCOON LIKE U...TRY TO CON PUBLIC....BY PLAYING UP THE SHARE...HOPING TO UNLOAD TO GREEDY NAIVE SOOCHAI LOH....!!

BUT THE NUMBER OF GREATER FOOLS HAD DROPPED ALOT & U NOW FOUND YOURSELF HOLDING THE RAT BAG LOH....!!
04/08/2018 12:49 PM
Darren I believe kyy share were force selling by the securities from the margin account.
Short term look good as some huge fund is buying at the bottom.
Long term i not confidence and need Jaks to show a better qr.
05/08/2018 2:40 AM
hng33 Pacific star tower already almost 100% completion. The other part residence, and mall still progressing.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/huislaw/sets/72157640776462653

Once the pacific star tower 1 hand over to star, the performance bond RM 50m become meaningless as these RM 50m is fund for star to complete the balance work of its tower and any excess fund actually need to return back to jaks, therefore, if jaks already complete the tower and hand over to star, then, performance bond RM50m will be become void.
06/08/2018 10:37 AM
abang_misai Icon8888, thanks for the article , your prediction on Jaks has been accurate so far. I join you sailang at 1.12
18/08/2018 3:41 PM
stockraider REMEMBER THIS IMPORTANT ADVICE LOH....!!
ALWAYS LEAVE EARLY MAH....!!
JAKS HAS GIVEN U AMPLE TIME....THE TSUNAMI IS COMING LOH...!!
GET THE HELL OUT...!! B4 KYY GET OUT EARLIER THAN U LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jul 31, 2018 08:19 PM | Report Abuse X

Important advice to greater fools

Some even lost a large part of their original capital. Thus on the next occassion when you happen to find yourselves at this type of a ball, try to leave early. The problem is that once one is caught up in the fun and games of the party, one is apt to lose touch with reality. Chances are that believers of the Greater Fool Theory will hang on to the bitter end, only to be slaughtered. It is better to miss a few dances or a few glasses of champagne than lose one's life.

In concluding this section, an anecdote about Bernarde Baruch, generally acknowledged to be the greatest stock traders of the 1920s is related. He was once asked how it was that he remained so rich while many of his contemporaries had declared bankrupt. This was his splendid answer: 'I always sold too early.'
18/08/2018 6:03 PM
abang_misai Ivon8888 chun chun in 2018.
18/08/2018 7:45 PM
hollandking if someone with massive baggage can run faster than someone who has light baggage, then what does it say?
18/08/2018 7:48 PM
hollandking ever heard of self-inflict margin call?
18/08/2018 7:52 PM
hollandking a self-inflict margin call is still a margin call but is done intentionally, meaning triggered it to happen intentionally
18/08/2018 7:52 PM
abang_misai Hoi. Icon8888 dan rakan-rakan baru masuk Jaks. Mereka percaya Jaks akan meletop. Saya percaya pada visi yang ada pada Icon8888. Dahalu saya ikut dia beli Orion. Saya telah kaya raya.
18/08/2018 7:58 PM
cytew using margin called as a legitimate excuse to sell off as part of Sun Zi Art of war..金蝉脱壳之计
18/08/2018 9:26 PM
rogers123 Icon888 can be trusted ar?
18/08/2018 9:27 PM
rogers123 Plz lat icon888 last time promoted puncak as hidden gem at 1.20++ and the end puncak felt to 0.40++
18/08/2018 9:28 PM
rogers123 This is one of Holland guy
18/08/2018 9:28 PM
rogers123 Jaks will reach 0.80++
18/08/2018 9:45 PM
Invest_Sensibly I also kena last time.

Posted by rogers123 > Aug 18, 2018 09:28 PM | Report Abuse
Plz lat icon888 last time promoted puncak as hidden gem at 1.20++ and the end puncak felt to 0.40++
18/08/2018 10:31 PM


 

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