Highlights

J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |   Latest post: Mon, 20 May 2019, 4:51 PM

 

[ EATECH ] - A bridge in Oil and Gas Sector - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Mon, 20 May 2019, 4:51 PM


[ EATECH ] - A bridge in Oil and Gas Sector - J4 Investment Capital 

 

Business Profile :

  1. The company are principally an owner and operator of marine vessels where their business is focused on marine transportation and offshore storage of oil & gas (“O&G”), and provision of port marine services
     
  2. The Company is involved in the charter of various types of tankers for the transportation and offshore storage of oil & gas, charter of marine tug vessels for the provision of port marine services and charter of Offshore Support Vessels (“OSV”) in the form of fast crew boats to transport personnel/light cargoes between shore and platform, platform and platform and other offshore facilities.
     
  3. As at 31 August 2018, the Company operates a total fleet of 45 marine vessels in their portfolio.
  • E.A. Technique owns 42 of these marine vessels which comprises eight (8) oil & gas tankers (inclusive of two (2) Floating Storage & Offloading Unit (“FSU/FSO”), five (5) OSVs and 29 marine vessels. The remaining 3 marine vessels are chartered from external parties.
  1. The group had embarked into marine engineering and marine engineering solutions when they were awarded with the contract for the provision of Engineering, Procurement, Construction, Installation & Commissioning (“EPCIC”) of a Floating Storage & Offloading (“FSO”) facility for Full Field Development (“FFD”) project, North Malay Basin.

     
  2. As an expansion plan, they have ventured into shipbuilding, ship repair and minor fabrication in Perak. Recently, their subsidiary ( JSE ) has been selected as “Outstanding Ship Builder 2017” by Ministry of Transport.
     
  3. They also entered into a share sale agreement (“SSA”) to acquire a 100% equity stake in Libra Perfex Precision Sdn Bhd (“Libra”), which was completed in 22 November 2016. Libra as our wholly owned subsidiary has been awarded with the contract for provision of tugboats for the operations of Petronas Floating LNG1 (L) Ltd (“PFLNG1”)

 

Business Division :

  1. MARINE TRANSPORTATION AND OFFSHORE STORAGE OF OIL & GAS
  • The tankers are used to transport refined petroleum products from oil refineries to end-users or to another refinery for further processing known as Clean Petroleum Products (“CPP”) e.g. kerosene (jet fuel), diesel and petrol (RON95 & RON97).

     
  • FSU/FSO are typically used to support production platforms as an offshore Oil & Gas storage facility at brown fields.

 

  • Liquid Petroleum Gas (“LPG”) tankers are used to transport liquefied gases including propane, butane and other gases such as propylene and butylene, albeit in smaller concentrations. These gases are required to be transported under high pressure and/ or low temperatures to maintain them in a liquid state.

 

  • They also operate Offshore Supply Vessels (“OSV”), namely fast crew boats, which are primarily used to transport personnel/light cargoes between shore and platform, platform and platform and other offshore facilities.

 

  1. PROVISION OF PORT MARINE SERVICES

 

  • The group are also engaged in the provision of port marine services for petrochemical and bulk & containerised ports in Malaysia. The types of port marine services that we provide at the ports include, among others:
  • Towage services comprising towing, pushing or maneuvering vessels.
     
  • Mooring services which involve securing a marine vessel to specially constructed fixtures such as piers, quays, wharfs, jetties, anchor buoys and mooring buoys.
     
  • Dockside mooring services where they have mooring personnel to secure vessels to floating structures and fixtures at the wharf.

 

  1. MARINE ENGINEERING SERVICES

 

Divided into 2 segments :

 

  • Provision of marine engineering solutions and shipbuilding & ship repair activities.

 

  • Marine engineering solutions encompass provision of marine engineering solutions and EPCIC activities.

 

  • The shipbuilding and ship repair activities serve as an internal supporting arm to our marine vessels.

 

  • Shipbuilding: Some of the shipbuilding activities that they carry out include construction of hull and structure, installation of machinery, equipment and instruments, and various embedded systems on the deck of the vessel, painting and coating, as well as testing and commissioning.
  • Ship Repair: Their ship repair utilises the same facilities, equipment and skill set as shipbuilding. Their repair works involves inspection, replacement, modification, removal, installation and cleaning.
  • The group also undertake the minor fabrication of steel structures in the shipyard. The steel structures that they fabricate are mainly for marine vessels for example helipad, flare stack, skids and piping systems.

 

 

Results of each business’s division :

  1. MARINE TRANSPORTATION AND OFFSHORE STORAGE OF OIL & GAS

 

Result

Q1’2018

Q2’2018

Q3’2018

Q4’2018

Revenue (‘000)

44,070

45,332

42,498

47,081

Profit (‘000)

27,703

13,897

23,059

16,141

 

  1. PROVISION OF PORT MARINE SERVICES

 

Result

Q1’2018

Q2’2018

Q3’2018

Q4’2018

Revenue (‘000)

19,402

23,424

24,756

30,597

Profit (‘000)

11,712

7,457

6,286

18,383

 

  1. MARINE ENGINEERING SERVICES

 

Result

Q1’2018

Q2’2018

Q3’2018

Q4’2018

Revenue (‘000)

349

372

300

140,819**

Profit (‘000)

91

87,576*

30

23,063***

 

*The profit was due to reversal of EPCIC project costs as there were some deletion scope of works and settlement of claims with customer.

**The increase was due to increase in EPCIC project.

***. This was resulted from a reversal of EPCIC project cost due to deletion of certain scope of works and some additional invoices in the current quarter.
 

Comparison of Results :

 

Result (‘000)

Q1’2018

Q2’2018

Q3’2018

Q4’2018

Revenue

63,821

69,128

67,554

218,497

Cost

46,436

36,224

52,747

220,212

Profit Before Tax

17,443

83,202

7,548

(17,832)

Profit After Tax

17,207

83,155

7,301

(33,431)

 

Company Overview for the Results : 

Q4’2018 :

Revenue

FY18 12 months ended  ( + 14 % )

TQ4’2017 ( RM 366.96 million ) vs TQ4’2018 ( RM 419.00 million )

The increase was due to contribution from EPCIC business. Notwithstanding, there was an increased in revenue from Marine transport services due to new charter hire fee derived from FSU Nautica Muar and Nautica Gambir.

 

YoY ( + 211% )

Q4’2017 ( RM 70.34 million ) vs Q4’2018 ( RM 218.50 million )

The increase was due to increase in revenue from Marine transport services derived from new charter hire fee from FSU Nautica Muar and Nautica Gambir and the increase in EPCIC project.

 

Profit

FY18 12 months ended ( + 168.51 % )

TQ4’2017 ( - RM 131.90 million ) vs TQ4’2018 ( RM 90.36 million )

The profit was mainly due to reversal of EPCIC project cost as there were some deletion scope of works and settlement of claims from customer.

The Group had also recorded net loss on foreign exchange of RM6.38 million for the twelve months period ended 31 December 2018 as compared to net gain of RM29.51 million in the previous corresponding period.

 

YoY ( -105.78 % )

Q4’2017 ( RM 1.03 million ) vs Q4;2018 ( - RM 17.83 million )

This was resulted from a reversal of EPCIC project cost due to deletion of certain scope of works and some additional invoices in the current quarter. The Group had also recorded net loss on foreign exchange of RM1.99 million for the quarter ended 31 December 2018 as compared to net gain of RM12.21 million for the previous corresponding quarter.

 

Business Opportunity and Risk

 

Opportunity :

1. Forex gain/loss base on the strength of MYR/USD. Strong MYR benefits.

2. High Order Book which can last for at least 2 financial year. Total worth of  RM572.49 million with additional RM216.65 million for extension period.

3. About 71% of 42 vessels are on long-term charters, with tenures stretching until the year 2027. This has resulted in high fleet utilisation of above 80%, ensuring the Company of a recurring revenue stream.

4. Stable position of Crude/Brent Oil Price at $60 and above, which led to a corresponding increase in demand for the services of offshore vessels.

5. Strong Cash Flow of RM 90.3 million in FY 18.

6. The Group’s fleet of vessels has been expanded with the delivery of two super Fast Crew Boats (“FCB”), M.V. Nautica Gambir and M.V. Nautica Langsat on 9 July 2018.

 

Risk :

1. High Gearing Ratio of 1.71 .

2. Unstable Oil Price

3. High reliance on the O&G sector and the PETRONAS Group in particular.

 

Company Prospects / Outlooks :

 

Q4’2018 :

The Group has recently also been awarded contracts for the provision of three (3) Harbour Tugs and one (1) Multipurpose Mooring Boats for Sungai Udang Port Sdn Bhd Regasification Terminal. The Contract duration will be for a primary period six (6) months with six (6) months extension option for one of the tugboats and for a primary period two (2) years with one (1) extension options for the rest of the boats upon expiry thereof. The Contract is expected to contribute positively to the earnings and net tangible assets of the Group for the financial year ended 31 December 2019 and beyond. The Group has recently also been awarded contracts for the provision of Harbour Tugs for Kerteh Port Sdn Bhd for a primary period of five (5) years. The Contract is expected to contribute positively to the earnings and net tangible assets of the Group for the financial year ended 31 December 2019 and beyond. As at 31 December 2018, the Group’s orderbook was approximately RM572.49 million with additional RM216.65 million for extension period. The Group remain optimistic on its operating performance from the respective business segment Marine Transport and FSO in view of the higher utilisation of FSU Nautica Muar, Nautica Renggam, Nautica Pagoh, Nautica Gambir and Nautica Langsat in 2019.

 

Estimation for Q1’2019

  1. Strengthen of MYR/USD , forex gain of approximately RM 4.5 million. Based on past record of Q1’2018 where MYR/USD strengthened by 5% and incurred a 9 million forex gain. From the period between Q4’2018-Q1’2019, MYR strengthened by 2.5% , which means there will be around RM 4.5 million of forex gain coming in.
  2. Increasing revenue and profit from the Marine Service Division . With the average revenue growth rate of TQ4 2018 which is around 15% per quarter and an average of 35-40% of profit margin. Q1’2019 is expected to achieve RM 35 million of revenue and RM 8.75 million of profit. ( assumption of 20-25 % of profit margin after tax and interest ).
  3. For the marine transportation and offshore service division, with an average revenue of TQ4 2018, which is RM 45 million and average profit margin of 35-40% , the group is expected to achieve a RM 11 million of profit ( assumption of 20-25 % of profit margin after tax and interest ).

 

Expected revenue for Q1’2019 are around RM 70-75 million , and RM 15 - 20 million of profit. ( if there is no any additional invoices or reversal of cost from EPCIC project )

EPS for Q1’2019 = 3.5 - 4.0 sen , take 3.75 sen as an average .

With no growth for the next 3 quarters , whole year EPS will be 15 sen. Forward PE will be around PE 3 ( Share price of RM 0.465 ) .

With PE x5 , share price should be around RM 0.75 . With current share price ( RM 0.465 ) , a RM 0.285 or 61 % of potential gain.

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to your advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

注明 : 以上纯属分享 , 没有任何的买卖建议 , 请小心交易 .

Happy investing !

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J4 Investment Capital.

 

Labels: EATECH
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Steel Comebacks ? [ Technical Analysis ] – J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Wed, 10 Apr 2019, 6:52 PM


Steel Comebacks ? [ Technical Analysis ] – J4 Investment Capital

 

PRESTAR

 

 

 

From the chart above , we can see that it is growing upwards and forming a cup and handle pattern at the end of it. There is also a short-term uptrend formed since Dec 2018 where the price rebounds. The price move along the trend in nice wave-like shape and forming a support line at RM 0.67 , which is a crucial line as it determines the next trend . We belived that a handle pattern is coming out and there should be a retracement once it reach RM 0.77 for a short break. However , the trend should be continuing as long as steel sectors is in a good sentiment. The resistance where it is placed at RM 0.805 will be its 1st Resistance and RM 0.92 will be the 2nd resistance. The following arrows are our prediction pathways which will be happening soon.

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_10ca9a7705450c36a93d5c96ab113c4f.png?fbclid=IwAR26MA17tyAxwepK9tsuNYjpLAlglzk0Kmjn4q72LKxOFA0t6bU_Fn9aK4s

 

 

 

 

From the Moving Averages Chart above , we can see that the short term MAs has converge at the early of 2019 and crossing through the long term MAs. All the Moving Averages continue showing uptrend sign as they are all moving upwards. Based on the candlesticks , the price is supported by the MA 20 and MA 30 line. Therefore , those Moving Average will be its important line to relay on in this short term rally. The Bollinger bands also showing a uptrend sign as it is slowly forming a uptrend wave. Finally , the volume spikes since March as the market sentiment shows improvement. We believes that selling pressure is mostly from the retailer as the downward volume is starting to become lesser and lesser. Once the retracement is done , it will be a good time to go.

 

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_1f6a75e66a2ec8cdb6f3874066b3058a.png?fbclid=IwAR2rQRqdezmEyC91ZnOnrIxLAS3QeAraBR_PQ5E0RpibWTpAIuGwyUURvHo

 

 

From the Technical Indicator Chart above , we can see that all the indicators are showing good sign . First is the Accum/Dist indicator , this indicator shows all the retailers movement . As I said , the retailers which are stuck at high price earlier are quiting at this price . However , on the OBV side , there is huge institution buying it non-stop . From this , we can conclude that , the main power is still on the spot. The MACD sign is still showing an average sign as it has not form a golden cross sign. Once the cross is formed , it will soon breaking new high. Lastly , the RSI sign is showing at 58 points . It is still not yet consider overbought . Therefore , with the supports from the indicators , we can say that this stock is safe to enter now.

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_985743f4ea57f394eaadb9b19230d456.png?fbclid=IwAR0Nc9DbWSIGIhmTJw4kxeMqdbmB4FkhnuxOiQu-iYRm9pzdnKsW0cqF2oY

 

Entry Price : RM 0.595

Target Price : RM 0.80 / RM 0.91

Potential Percentage Gain : 25% / 51%

 

 

ANNJOO

 

 

From the chart above , we can also see that there is a cup and handle pattern forming right now . This chart is almost same as PRESTAR as we can see the short-term uptrend tunnel has formed since it rebounds. However we predict that it will pause for a moment before the price continue surging as it has just from the RM 1.83 which is the resistance line previously. The next support line will be at RM 1.62 and the next resistance will be at RM 2.19 . We believe that the price will move side away in these trading days to recombine power for next rally.

 

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_ed27ab0b2bd52e0c75fc40e1728e6d47.png?fbclid=IwAR2t4xHdgKlgEz6Mh42XY26YZwC6Ad9N8hrCTOt0m2QxK9Du_bX4REDuCls

 

 

 

 

From the Moving Average Chart above , we can see that it is very familiar with PRESTAR one too . It is also supported by the MA 20 and MA 30 . However , the long candlestick which is formed on few days ago has broke through every moving average and currently not supported by any of it . The huge volume has showed the exploding sentiment of this sector and showing a good sign of it. We predict the price is going to retrace or moving side-away soon to have a rest for coming days.

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_5d2502f8a1bb970ec5a1d91ed2486e5f.png?fbclid=IwAR0PT_zMB2HM4xEO2olkLqHVwzH8djKFUybzYlAHUPOTKPEYSXzSUR6m9Jg

 

 

 

From the chart above , all of the indicators are also showing good sign . First of all is the Accum/Dist , it is showing uptrend sign and there is a huge spike together with the volume . Bothe the Accum/Dist and OBV shows the same sign , means all the traders and investors are rushing in at the same time . There is no sign of showing them throwing for now . On the MACD , the golden cross has formed and showing upward sign which is the blue line. However , the RSI has show an over-bought sign , which means it is tally with our prediction , that is to retrace and move side-away these days.

 

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_2e04ef67c3eb28fc5aa8fb84c799b46d.png?fbclid=IwAR1HeYjSEBlvXw9yPg4qIe_hO149MS9RIvFYsqRtYej7upD-hBHFkcFfcmo

 

Entry Price : RM 1.65

Target Price : RM 2.19

Potential Percentage Gain : 32%

 

 

MASTEEL

 

 

From the chart above , MASTEEL has breached its uptrend line, hence indicated a buy call at 0.47 . This breakout fulfil J4 Investment breakout criteria , which is trend line violating with high volume.Hence , we strongly see it as a breakout stock which will yield a minimum of 80 percent gain from 0.47 . Besides , as shown above , the moving average converge and slope upwards , and the price spike up above MA30 (green line) with high volume in the current days , it fulfils J4 Investment Capital secret indicator for a breakout stock .

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_c087ee5601cf602f2473cc7abc5fdbfc.png?fbclid=IwAR24DyF1WNU4shKT5uBrlrRg6ndEXAg1E_5KNFMkHh9J7gZ85Rat_AqkjdQ

 

 

Entry Price : 0.47-0.475

Target Price: 0.865

TP2 and TP3 : stay tuned for more

 

 

 

LIONIND

 

 

 

From the chart above , LIONIND fulfil J4 investment capital breakout criteria once again , the criteria are such as following

A) Resistance line being breached with high volume today , volume increase and a long green candle , its resistance at 0.61 turns support , fall below support CL

B) The price increase with high volume and stay above MA30 (green line) , indicates a strong upward moment is impending , it fulfils a bullish indicator of J4 investment capital

C) The spike in price completed a rectangle formation

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_dcf1d4b6c17019fed3252bd3d194a853.png?fbclid=IwAR2RH1gmyCuGVh1qGYGHLMhVRn-k2QKfoiN3O46MXJgI3lJ3ZbvwKBQL5Qg

 

 

Entry Price : 0.615( best buy) , try to buy 10/4 opening price

Cut Loss : 0.61

Target Price : 0.89

 

 

The target price is set by charting the downtrend of two previous peak , we expect a strong rebound towards the downtrend resistance line , it is now a change in trend , but not a trend reversal , a higher TP will be set if the downtrend line is breached with high volume .

 

 

Photo Link : https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_66e420c8ff002fc039f1702b845f6b9c.png?fbclid=IwAR03xDcCqG9LxOX-1yqAmrFo9D5PVlgfVwAUnnZEfLWk09ly2zICJQ4w_4M

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to your advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

注明 : 以上纯属分享 , 没有任何的买卖建议 , 请小心交易 .

Happy investing !

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

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J4 Investment Capital.

 

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factorrumour only these four?
10/04/2019 9:24 PM
Ben22950 Great technical analyses on the four steel counters. Bullish breakouts especially for Ann Joo and Masteel with increasing volumes. One question though, what's driving these current rebounds?
11/04/2019 2:34 AM
sbg3106 ECRL
11/04/2019 6:22 AM
ttluck ann joo more safer......
11/04/2019 2:45 PM
xiaoqing88 JP Morgan berkata, syarikat yang terdedah dengan pembatalan atau penerusan projek ECRL dari segi operasi dan kewangan adalah MRCB, Gabungan AQRS, HSS Engineers (kejuruteraan / reka bentuk), Sunway Construction, Fajarbaru Builder, Ekovest, TRC Synergy, Gadang, Mudajaya, TSR Capital, Ahmad Zaki, UEM Construction Sdn Bhd, Econpile, Pintaras Jaya, Ihkmas Jaya dan EITA (sistem).

Sementara bagi kontrak berkaitan simen dan keluli pula, Lafarge, Tasek Corp, Lion Industries, Ann Joo Resources,

dan Southern Steel antara yang berpotensi mendapat manfaat dari projek itu.
12/04/2019 6:58 PM
xiaoqing88 https://www.bharian.com.my/bisnes/lain-lain/2019/04/551401/kontraktor-tempatan-bakal-raih-kontrak-rm105-bilion-ecrl
12/04/2019 6:59 PM

[ WTK Holdings ] – Timber Rally Soon ??? – J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Sun, 31 Mar 2019, 5:46 PM


[ WTK Holdings ] – Timber Rally Soon ??? – J4 Investment Capital .

 

 

Introduction


WTK Holdings Berhad is a diversified group with operations in the timber, plantation, oil & gas and adhesive tape sectors. The core activity of the Group is in timber harvesting and the manufacture of plywood products. Prior to that, the Group was involved in the manufacturing of adhesive tapes and flexible packaging products. In mid-2000, the Group embarked onto forest and oil palm plantations. Seeing the growth potential and increasing contribution of the oil palm business to the Group’s earnings, the Group commenced the construction of a palm oil mill in Limbang Division, Sarawak, in 2016. The completion and commissioning of the palm oil mill during 2H2017 has since added a new stream of revenue to the Group from the sales of crude palm oil (“CPO”) and palm kernel (“PK”) In late 2014, the Group diversified into the oil & gas industry, particularly in the provision of Accommodation Workboats (“AWBs”) to support offshore oil & gas activities. However, the downturn of the industry in 2015 affected all facets of the industry, including the Group’s division which struggled with the challenges since 2016. This severely affected the performance and cash flow of the Group’s oil & gas division due to the prolonged off-hire of its vessels. Subsequently, on 22 February 2018 the High Court of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur ordered the subsidiary be wound-up and appointed a liquidator for the subsidiary.

 

Business Structure and Overview

 

Timber Division ( Logs + Plywood )

The timber division comprise of upstream timber harvesting operations and forest plantations, and downstream timber processing operations which is mainly in the plywood manufacturing. All these operations are located in Sarawak, Malaysia.

India is the dominant market for the Group’s logs export, accounting for 90% + of total logs export.

The division is the key revenue driver for the Group. It generated more than 80% of the Group’s total revenue. The segmental contribution within the timber division comprised of: timber harvesting 40% and plywood manufacturing 60%.

For the Group’s plywood manufacturing, the three plywood mills are located in Sarawak. These mills have a combied annual production capacity of up to 324,000 m3 . The various types of plywood produced are such as general plywood, concrete panel & structural plywood, and floor-base plywood.

The Group has built up a strong and significant customer base in Japan, with 84% of its export sales to the country and the remaining 16% exported to Taiwan during 2017.

 

Plantation Division

The Group’s five (5) oil palm estates are located in Sarawak, namely in Limbang Division, Oya in Sibu Division, Kuala Baram & Lapok in Miri Division which is inclusive of the designated areas for the LPF with a combined land-bank of 35,000 hectares (“ha”) and a palm oil mill in Limbang Division.

 

Tape Division (Manufacturing and Trading)

This division manufactures various adhesive and masking tapes. It is well-known for its brand name cellulose tapes, that is Loytape® Cellulose Tape and the Star®.

Prospects :

Upside

  1. Increase in the average selling price of logs and plywood of approximately 15% and 20% respectively .
  2. 8,700 hectares of unharvested trees which will be harvested in 2020 .
  3. High demand for plywood in Japan for the preparation of Japan 2020 Olympics Game .
  4. Mature palm hectarage getting higher in 2019 compared to before reaching almost 100,000 MT .
  5. Hedging done in the Tape Division where they paid by USD and pay for the raw materials in USD too.
  6. Oil and Gas division which they recorded a huge loss in the previous financial years has finally being fully written off.
  7. Palm Oil price which has been their lowest price since these few years .
  8. Net Cash Company .
  9. High NTA and CASH .
  10. 20-30% of dividend policy .

 

Downside

  1. Lower logs export quota imposed by the Sarawak State Government . This has made the group to limit their export sales and increase the selling price of logs .
  2. Weakening of INR vs USD caused India Market to become soft .
  3. Lower palm oil price .
  4. Weakening of USD .

 

Conclusion

The group has recorded a very strong fundamental result based on their past performance. With a great cash flow , high cash storage , and being a net cash company , it would definitely make this company a stock to watch. Another point is that being a diversified company , they managed to run their business in a safer way and having a more stable growth. The main business which is the timber division is currently having their upside period as the selling price of both logs and plywood are rising and in their high demand state . The one point which has to notice is the price for palm oil . This might affect the whole plantation division if the price has no ending of falling .

 

Technical Analysis :

 

From the chart above , the downtrend line has been violated with high volume ( the prerequisite of trend reversal : volume + trendline violating) , it shows a absolute trend reversal from technical terms . After a setup of trend reversal with explosive volume , a cup-with-handle formation is then formed , using a one-to-one measurement  technique , a target price of 0.88 is given after violating the cup resistance @0.6 . Now, a continuation uptrend is impending , therefore a strong buy is being awared in these coming days . Sums up from the chart pattern analysis above , a TP1 of 0.88 is formed ( 47 percent gain). A TP2 of 1.17 is the ultimate target in terms of technical analysis .

 

Intrinsic Value Analysis :

 

 

Using the cash valuation method , with a very conservative growth estimation of 5 percent , a projected intrinsic value is RM4.96 . It is way too cheap compared to the recent price of RM0.60 , there is an up to 90 percent discount in terms of this valuation modal .

Using case study 2 , we estimate there is a downturn of company performance of -5 percent per subsequent year , the intrinsic value is located at RM 3.33 , it is still a cheap piece of stock .

 

 

 

Therefore , in terms of either intrinsic value or technical analysis , this stock will be the top of my watchlist .

Conclusion :

Safe Entry Point : RM 0.6

CL point : RM 0.55

TP : RM 0.88/1.17/RM3.3

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice ,

please refer to your advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

注明 : 以上纯属分享 , 没有任何的买卖建议 , 请小心交易 .


Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

Labels: WTK
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AmateurApprentice This stock is a good buy after market's reaction to lower earnings in Q1 2019. Taking into consideration the one-off deconsolidation gain from last year.

Management seem realistic. Will include into my watchlist for future buy call.

Thanks a lot for the assessment.
01/04/2019 3:41 PM

[ Technical Analysis – TM ] 起死回生 ? – J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Thu, 17 Jan 2019, 5:42 PM


[ Technical Analysis – TM ] – J4 Investment Capital

 

 

 

 

TELEKOM MALAYSIA ( TM ) 在去年8 月的最高峰 RM 4.00 , 因为利空的消息不断的涌

现 , 其中因为政府打算吊销公司垄断性的业务 , 扩大市场 , 让公司面对外来的竞争者 . 也

就因为这样 , 公司决定调低服务费用 , 使公司被逼降低赚幅. 这家不受市场看好的公司在

去年也面临了被踢出 30 大蓝筹股的危机 , 让股东们都纷纷卖出股票 . 最后 , 身为大股东

的EPF也为了让公司在 TOP 30 中淘汰, 不停的沽货 , 最低股价也来到了 RM 2.18 左右.

 

自从 2018 8 月 至11 月 , 股价大跌的幅度高达 45% , 很明显的证明股价的下跌趋势 . 来

到 11 月, 公司揭晓了让大家期待的业绩报告 , 当中虽然有大笔的 Impairment , 但市场却

发现公司的业务并不因为价格调低而对它有很大的影响 . 因此 , 开始吸引了投资者的注意

力 .

 

以技术图来分析

 

 

 

股价自从11 月开始有了上升的趋势 , 股价在RM 2.20 和RM 2.40 之间徘徊了一阵子 . 最

后股价继续往上突破, 形成了一条上升趋势 . 其中股价有两条可能性的趋势线 , 第一

Route 1 和第二 Route 2 . Route 1 属于长线缓慢上升 , Route 2 属于积极型的上升趋势.

图表中也显示出了2个 Support Line , 分别在 RM 2.58 和 RM 2.33 . 只要股价没有往下

破 , 还是属于上升趋势中.  Resistance 则是在 RM 3.01 和 RM 3.26 . 一旦突破 RM

3.01 , 股价就属于长期性的上升趋势.  

 

以成交量价分析

 

股价在 10/10/2018 面临了巨大的成交量 , 高达 36 M , 虽然隔天有个大量反弹 , 但随后

经不起大股东大量的丢货 , 让散户也随之抛货 , 量价一天比一天高 , 股价也越来越低 .

到了 31/10/2018 , 却有新大户重新进场 , 开始不断的买进 , 支撑 . 业绩的好消息 , 让

有所回调 , 开启了新的上升通道 . 值得注意的是, 股价在这几个星期的成交量特别的

低 ,证明了买家和卖家开始稀薄 , 可以知道大户已减少买卖 , 稳定了股价的起伏.

 

以技术指标方式分析

 

 

 

MA 20 和 50 也已经往上交叉 , 其中也出现了几次的金叉 , 股价也稳定在 MA 20, 50 ,

100 的上面 , 再次确认了趋势的反转 . 只要能站在 MA 100 以上, 对股价的方向就会很有

帮助.

 

 

以 ACCUM / DIST 指标来看 , 股价在 30/10/2018 , 开始有新大户进场收票 , 支撑股价 ,

大量买入 , 让 OBV 也开始反转 , 往上移动. MACD 也出现了金叉 , 确认了这次的反转, 此

外 MACD 也在昨天出现了金叉 , 让股价突破新高.  股价也站在 Bollinger Band 的上方 ,

属于上升趋势的现象 .

 

总结

 

以这支股价从高峰 RM 4.00 跌到RM 2.20的公司 , 可以看到往下跌的幅度有限 , 公司利空

的消息也逐渐出完了 , 市场也事先惩罚了这家公司 . 身为垄断性业务的公司 , 在市场上还

是有一定的位置 . 以公司的资产和业务表现来看 , 相信公司肯定会积极保护自己的位置 ,

国家也不会让属于自己的公司就这样被市场淘汰. 我们认为股价在 RM 2.50- RM 2.80 之

间还是值得考虑的 , 接下来的业绩也不会很差 , 除非又出现大笔的 Impairment , 上升的幅

度至少也有 20% . 可是, 要留意的是这几股对消息是非常敏感的 , 当利空消息一出现 , 股

价就会马上表现出来.

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a

buy and sell advice , please refer to your advisory for any buy or sell call , buy

and sell at your own risk .

 

注明 : 以上纯属分享 , 没有任何的买卖建议 , 请小心交易 .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can

share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

 

Labels: TM
  2 people like this.
 
Bruce88 Just a rebound only, don't get too excited. LOL
17/01/2019 9:51 PM

[ Fundamental Analysis – CJCEN (7117 ) ] – J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Wed, 16 Jan 2019, 6:51 PM


[ Fundamental Analysis – CJCEN (7117 ) ] – J4 Investment Capital

 

 

 

 

CJCEN 成立于1970 年 ,是一家物流公司 。该文章将会针对此公司近几年的财务状况和

扩张进行基本面分析。以下图表将会显示该集团的5年来的现金流,资本开销 ,及

dividend payout ratio / dividend yield .

 

           FY

         2013

          2014

        2015

          2016

          2017

    Cash( ‘000)

        38086

        71044

       89453

        91640

        71700

 Borrowing( ‘000)

        81052

        63202

       79253

        63641

        42755

  CAPEX( ‘000)

        54652

          8065

       41791

         2302

          9895

    FCF( ‘000)

     (42966)

          7842

       10200

        27999

         28945

    EPS (sen)

          6.87

          9.12

         8.63

          5.3

          3.89

  Div/share(sen)

            4

           4.7

          5.5

          3.5

           1.5

   Payout ratio%

           58

          51.5

         63.7

           66

          38.5

    Div Yield %

            4

           4.7

          5.5

            4

             3

 

以上是此公司5年来的现金流表现 ,从2013-2016 , 该公司的cash 都是增长的 , FCF

也是不断地增长,所以现金流是无比的健康 。5年来都有稳定派息记录 ,最低的 payout

ratio 也有38.5% , 可是平均是在55%。

 

要了解此公司的未来,首先要了解该公司的企业活动和扩张。在2016 年 ,韩国最大的物

流公司CJ 购买了century 30.96%的股权 , 平均价 1.45 .

 

当时CJ用溢价购买该公司的股权 , 而在短短两年内 cjcen 的股价已经缩水了70% 。这

到底是不是一个买入的黄金机会呢?

 

对版主而言,该公司将会是下个十年的明星股 , 原因如下 :

 

1 ) 大股东是韩国最大的物流公司 , CJCEN 可以利用CJ广大 的 customer base 来增加

生意额,藉此扩展生意 .

 

2 ) CJ公司委任了多名韩国董事进入管理层 ,这新一批的管理层在此行业拥有多年经

验,肯定能为century带来积极增长.

 

3 ) 该公司在2018 年积极扩张 ,预计全年资本开销达到120million ( 历史新高).

 

4 ) 该公司与2019 年正式 开始快遆服务 , 相信各位读者也知道 e-commerce 是一个当

红的趋势,也肯定在未来扮演者无比重要的角色.

 

 

以下的分析将会针对该公司的扩张计划

 

2017 年 CJ成为大股东后,就务必将该公司的业务发展,为了迎接这个网络购物的到来

, 该公司正式投入了物流生意于2016 年开始投资此生意 , 经过3 年的等待 , 该公司终

于在 2018 年正式开始快递服务 。 而快递服务的发展潜能到底有多大呢,根据报告显示

马来西亚的电子商务预计将会以CAGR 11% 的速度快速增长至2020 年, 该公司正是瞄

准次商机大胆在快递服务里以创下历史新高的资本开销投资 , 该公司2018 年的产能为

2.2milion sqft , 经过庞大的资本开销后,在2019 年头就能正式完成4.5million sqft 的

warehouse construction . 这次的扩张将会是一个对该公司快递服务的催化剂 因为当这次

的扩张完成后,每日能处理的包裹分类将会从7000-8000 个 提升至10万个 。

 

有些读者可能会认为该公司投资了这么一大笔钱进入一个新行业,要如何确保该公司的

产能能被充足利用,而不会浪费资源 。

 

没有错,如果一间公司投入了一门新生意,肯定很难找到固定的客户群,可是不要忘了

2016 年 CJ 公司成为了Century的大股东, 正是因为如此 , 我们才不需要担心该公司的

快递服务会因没有客户群而导致产能被浪费 。

 

可是,短期内 管理层也老实的向股东汇报,以为仍处于初期消化期 是他蒙受亏损 可是在

2021 年 会开始贡献盈利 。所以短期投机者是绝对不适合此股票,可是在未来的5年十年

, 这只股将会是一只明星股。金子总有一天会发光 。想要了解这只股更多的 可以留守下

一篇的业绩报告分析,估值 , 和技术分析 。

 

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and

sell advice , please refer to your advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your

own risk .

 

注明 : 以上纯属分享 , 没有任何的买卖建议 , 请小心交易 .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share

more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

Labels: CJCEN
  Be the first to like this.
 
Flintstones You think so easy to break into the last mile delivery market ah. Do you know how many competitors in this business? How you wanna win market share from the bigger guys?
16/01/2019 11:10 PM
J4InvestmentCapital 没有错,如果一间公司投入了一门新生意,肯定很难找到固定的客户群,可是不要忘了

2016 年 CJ 公司成为了Century的大股东, 正是因为如此 , 我们才不需要担心该公司的

快递服务会因没有客户群而导致产能被浪费 。

refer to this paragraph , century logistics can tap on the huge customer base from cj logistics , thats why they have the advantages to enter this new segment
17/01/2019 12:37 AM
JackPonting Worth reading here about CJCEN which was founded in 1970 as a logistics company and this post will address the financial situation of this company in recent years.

Jack,
http://www.qualitydissertation.co.uk/
30/01/2019 8:04 PM

[ Technical Analysis – GENM ] ­ - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Tue, 15 Jan 2019, 2:45 PM


[ Technical Analysis – GENM  ] ­ - J4 Investment Capital 

 

 

 

GENM 从 10/10/2018 的 RM 5 ,因为各种不利消息的因素 , 包括主题乐园延

迟, 业绩 Impairment , 赌博税 , 与DISNEY合约问题 , 导致股价不断狂跌 , 最

也到了 RM 3.01 , 跌了 40 % .那这次是反转还是反弹罢了呢 ?

 

以技术面来分析公司股价 , 在 5/11/2018 , 因为预算案里多加了税务 , 导致公司

隔天暴跌了 30 % , 在 27/11/2018 , 又因为合约上的问题, 威胁了公司主题乐园

的开幕预期 , 造成多一次的暴跌 , 但以成交量来看 , 并不比上次暴跌的买盘多.

经历了 3 次的大跌 , 很多投行也开始下调了公司的目标价 , 散户也几乎走完了.

 

 

以图表方式分析

 

股价在多次的暴跌下明显的形成了下跌趋势 ( Downtrend Line ) . 在

19/12/2018, 出现了大绿柱 , 相信是因为开始有投行 Buy Call 的原因 , 让股价

有了反转点 ( Reversal Trend Line ) . 随后股价也在 Trend Line 里往上徘徊 ,

于健康行上升趋势. 如今的股价 ( RM 3.33 ) 也形成了两条 Support Line , 分

是 RM 2.78 和 RM 3.05 , 只要没有往下突破 , 还是属于上升趋势. 在

RM 3.33 也遇到了两大阻力 ( Resistant Line ) , 分别是 Downtrend Line 和

Reversal Line , 只要在近日往上突破 , 通常这上升趋势就属于短型的 , 如果往下

回调了再突破 , 就属于长期上升趋势. RM 3.53 和RM 4.29 是它比较大的

Resistance .

 

 

以成交量方式分析

 

5/11/2018 的成交量也是几年来最大的数目 , 高达 379 M , 但当时的暴跌有明显

的大户接票 , 导致跌幅下降 . 过后的几天又高开低收 , 打击了散户的信心 .

27/11/2018 的暴跌 , 成交量不必以往的大 , 接盘量也明显的下降了, 原因是大家

都不想继续持有 , 对公司没了信心 . 过后 , 却有几家投行调高了目标价 , 大量吸

票 , 形成了这次的上升趋势. 往上突破的绿柱也有很大的买盘 .

 

 

以技术指标方式分析

 

 

Bollinger Band 有了明显的反转指标 , 股价一直徘徊在 MA 20 上 , 也挑战了突

破上方的阻力, 相信股价在这几天会有所回调 ( RM 3.20 – RM 3. 30 ) . MA 5 ,

50 开始往上交叉 , 只要保持下去 , 上升趋势就可以维持 .

 

 

 

 

 

Acc / Dis 和 OBV 指标显示有散户和大户开始收集 . MACD 指标也出现了金叉,

再次确认了这次的上升趋势 . 买力不断上升.

 

 

总结

 

究竟这次的上涨会是反弹还是反转呢 ? 我们相信以公司的基本面来看 , 股价还

是有点被低估的 , 这次的上涨是属于有理由性上涨  . 身为 30 大蓝筹股的公司  ,

相信不会这么容易就被打败  , 后续应该会有所作为 . 如果你属短期玩法 , 不建议

你在这价位入场  , 除非你愿意陪它成长. 我们估计股价会在 RM 3.20 – RM 3.50

徘徊 , 待业绩出炉后在打算股价的动向.

 

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes ,

not a buy and sell advice , please refer to your advisory for any buy or

sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

注明 : 以上纯属分享 , 没有任何的买卖建议 , 请小心交易 .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that

we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

Labels: GENM
  Be the first to like this.
 
LimKL1 nice one there
15/01/2019 3:19 PM
Bruce88 Just a rebound...
15/01/2019 3:25 PM
16/01/2019 2:27 PM

[ Technical Highlights - DNEX ] A stock you should not miss after HIBISCS and REACH - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Wed, 3 Oct 2018, 6:48 PM


[ Technical Highlights - DNEX ] A stock you should not miss after HIBISCS and REACH - J4 Investment Capital

 

DNEX Technical Chart Review :

 

1) Since the end of December 2016 , DNEX started its first wave of rally and hit the peak during 28/4/2017 ( Jack Ma visitation ) . From the chart above , the symmetrical triangle has reached its end , a big market action is expected to occur in these few days , however our team see it as a hyper-bullish state in the coming year , we suspect the triangle will be breached tomorrow at the price of 0.445 ( with a high volume ) .

 

2)  If it breaks the symmetrical triangle with a violent volume tomorrow , it will be a significant buy , with a TP of 0.84 .

 

3)  From the OBV , it records a large fund inflow since the beginning of 2017 , the retracement is almost done .

 

4)  Besides , it is not only bullish from the technical perspective .

It will also get the benefit from the oil price surge , They have the stake in the Anasuria cluster ( with Hibiscus Petroleum ) , amid the recovering crude oil price , DNEX earnings will have a steady growth , which is in line with the oil price .

 

5)  Their National Single Window will contribute positively in this year too .

 

6)  Their Go Halal platform will also start operating this year  .

 

7)  Acquisition of GENASIS BERHAD this year will also be one of the earning catalyst .

 

Rating : Hyper-bullish ( with the constrain heavy volume breakout tomorrow )

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

 

  Be the first to like this.
 

[ FBMKLCI , TOP 100 , MID , SMALL CAP ] - BULL IS COMING TO TOWN !!! Part 2 - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 8:03 PM


[ FBMKLCI , TOP 100 , MID , SMALL CAP ] - BULL IS COMING TO TOWN !!! Part 2 - J4 Investment Capital.

 

First of all , we did successfully found the bottom of the 3 main Index on the 18th of July 2018 right before the BULL RUNS .

 

 

 

From the list below where we stated on that day about the factors that cause the HUGE PLUNGE on June , there are now a few changes :  

 

1. General Election on 9th of May 2018 ( Digested )

 

2. BN Loss ( Digested )

 

3. Trade War between U.S. and China ( On-going )

 

4. Unstable MYR and USD ( On - going )

 

5. US Interest Rates ( On - going )

 

6. Weaker Quarterly Report ( Starting to improve )

 

7. Newly formed government ( Starting to improve )

 

8. Delay of the list of cabinets ( Digested )

 

9. Cancellation of HSR , LRT 3 , ECRL ( All have been brought back to the table )

 

10. Welcome to the 1 trillion debt country . ( Digested )

 

Out of 10 factors , 4 have been digested , 3 are currently on-going and there are a few factors that should be highlighted .

 

1. The trade war between U.S. and China which began in the early of 2018 has made the world’s markets full of fear . Now , the U.S. is starting to play it soft and trying to make China solves it under the table. They knew that the China has no longer got much bullets to play with and I believe that they might solve it right after November 2018 after the Midterm - Election in U.S. .

 

2. The Midterm - Election in U.S. is a crucial moment where Donald Trump will know whether he is doing the right thing for the people during his President period . He needs to show the people the good side of him which includes the economic in U.S. and all over the world . That is why we could see Dow Jones Index has broke a NEW HIGH on Friday .

 

3. Cancellation of HSR , LRT 3 and ECRL is also another point to highlight and is the key to determine the future of Construction and Steel stocks in the next few years . During this period, our government has switching the projects ON and OFF repeatedly making all the related stocks to be so volatile . However , I believe that in the end those projects will still continue its progress either by cutting the cost or to delay it .

 

4. There are a few sectors where we should focus in , in the next few quarters :

 

- Semiconductors : Due to the trade wars , the China has switched their semiconductor ‘s market to our country and trying to get orders as our country is consider CHEAP enough than U.S.

 

- Export sectors : The U.S. Fed Interest Rate is going to rise in the coming weeks which will make USD even higher than previous .

 

- The undervalued stocks : After the corrections we faced in the past few months , there are some stocks which are extremely undervalued and should be corrected to its value soon .

 

Technical Analysis on Index :

 

KLCI INDEX

 

From the chart above , KLCI Index is still currently on the right track despite it has suffer from a few small correction in August and September . As long as it does not fall below the trend line and Support Line ( Resistance 4 - 1789 ) , it is still consider alright . During the coming period , it is expected to move up along the trend , reaching the short term resistance at 1822 . The resistance 5 line is expected to be broke near November if everything goes right . We are giving out a TP of 1815 - 1840 .in the next few weeks .

 

 

KLCI Mid Cap :

From the chart above , we can see that it failed to pass through the resistance 4 ( 15576 ) despite a few attempts. It then plunges down back on the long-term uptrend line and creating a strong support line at 14655. However , the rebound might faces some challenges near the resistance 1 at 14987 and fall back to the trendline . As long as the KLCI Index going well , Mid-cap index might not suffer any problem and continue to reach our target price at 15355 in the next few weeks .

 

KLCI Small Cap :

 

From the chart above , the KLCI Small cap index suffers a huge plunge back to the original position after it failed to breakthrough the resistance 3 at 15195 . This has made the support line around 13686 - 13761 stronger and might continue to move around the region . We are giving a target price of 15000 in the next few weeks as the global market returned to bull state .

 

Index Analysis(23/9/18) :

 

 

 

Candlestick Chart : DJI index

Light purple : HSI

Dark Purple : KLSE

 

1) Region A

 

-The region where global market started the first wave spike , however , KLSE did not goes in line with the global market moves due to unstable geopolitical reason . HSI trended upwards with the movement of the US DJI Index .

 

2) Region B

 

-The preliminary stage before the bullish market action started . At this point , HSI has started to rally before the US market skyrocketed  , it is due to the heavy plunge before it . KLSE was still remaining dormant at this moment .

 

3) Region C

 

-The temporary pause in the preceding hyper-bullish market .

 

i) DJI enters the consolidation period

ii) HSI followed the US market move .

iii) KLSE followed the global market move too .

 

-The reason of the heavy plummet at the end of region c is mainly due to the impending trade war and tariff impose .

 

4) Region D

 

-This is the point where three market started to show divergence , in the midst of tense global market sentiment , US stock market and Malaysia stock market started to rebound to where it belongs . On the other hand , HSI did not go with the movement of the global market , it is  following the China Stock Exchange .

 

After understanding the comparison between the 3 markets , we can boil it down into some corollary .

 

During region A , B and C , Malaysia market are the worst among them , it is because what we have mentioned above , the unstable geopolitical reason and the vague fiscal policy and others . However , our team see it as a charging bull , Malaysia market has digested the negative sentiment earlier than Hong Kong and other country all around the world . Therefore , in the midst of bad market sentiment , Malaysia has limited downside potential because the investors have already digested the news being released . It is the time for KLSE Index to shine , we rate Malaysia market as a bullish market . Other than that , we believe that the mega infrastructure is temporarily being procrastinated , a developing country needs good infrastructure and of course job opportunity to develop well. Malaysia new government will not cancelled any of it , they will continue it very soon in a few years time . Malaysia will be having a tough time to make the country financial healthy again , after the restructuring process , Malaysia will be maintaining its robust growth in every aspects . For the global market recession , we believe that it will not be so soon , we predict that it will be falling at the end of 2019 -the mid of 2020 .

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

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jiunn I agreed with your view on FBMKLCI BULL MARKET provided index can now above the critical 200-day SMA at 1,799…
24/09/2018 2:33 PM

[ SUPERMAX CORP BHD ] - Golden Chance After Huge Plunge ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Mon, 10 Sep 2018, 7:20 PM


[ SUPERMAX CORP BHD ] - Golden Chance After Huge Plunge ??? - J4 Investment Capital

 

 

Supermax Corporation Berhad is a leading international manufacturer, distributor and marketer of high quality medical gloves. Today, the Supermax Group has eleven factories manufacturing various types of natural rubber and nitrile latex gloves, which are exported to over 160 countries around the world, such as the United States of America, European Union, Middle East, Asia and South Pacific countries. By now , Supermax is currently producing 23.4 billion pieces of gloves per annum and the Group has identified for capacity growth to 25.8 billion pieces within next 18 to 24 months.

 

In the early 2014 , the group has gradually expanding an advanced manufacturing facility in Malaysia in 2014 for the production of disposable soft contact lens, semi-finished and finished Lens products. They created a new business unit SuperVision Optimax Sdn Bhd (SVO) with its very own brand, AVEO / AveoVision which is now spreading its markets globally. As at March 2016, the Group has invested with a capital commitment of RM100 million into the high-end, advanced robotic manufacturing of contact lens. To date, their contact lens are exported to Europe, North America, Latin America, Middle-East, West Africa, South Korea , South Asia , Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific Countries. Already, there is a manufacturing plant located in Sungai Buloh produces 70 million lens a year at present.

 

 

In 4Q2016, Supermax has entered into Japan & incorporated a 70/30 JV company, Aime Supermax KK based in ShinYokohama, Japan which is the second largest consuming market of disposable contact lens after the United States. Going forward, they would be looking into acquiring companies in Japan which are already securing substantial market shares in the EyeCare, LensCare & the Beauty Industry.

 

Besides,they have start up an e-commerce platform through online shopping in US catering to American consumers.

 

Due to the latest QR Report

 

1. The Group had managed to fully commission its newest plants, Plants #10 & #11, which have gradually added 5.6 billion pieces of gloves to the Group‟s total installed capacity.

 

2. Commercial production at the rebuilt plant of Block G, Taiping plant has commenced on 18 July 2018. The plant is expected to be fully operational by end-September 2018 with annual production capacity of 1.35 billion gloves.

 

3. The Group had also expanded its land bank for purposes of capacity expansion by acquiring a piece of land behind its existing cluster of plants in Meru, Klang. Construction works to build its 12th plant on this plot of land have already started in June 2018 and will further add to the Group‟s production capacity by 2.2 billion pieces when completed in the 2nd half of 2019.

 

4. For the contact lens division , Japanese medical device authority and had in June 2018 successfully obtained the product license to export contact lenses to Japan, the second largest contact lens market in the world. The first batch of contact lenses were recently shipped to Japan on 25 August 2018.

 

5. The sharp drop of profit margin is due to a higher raw material cost .

 

 

### Future Prospect :

 

The group has completed the 2 latest plant and gradually investing a lot more to revive its older plants to extract higher production output.

By totaling up all the CapEX which has been done by the group , it is expected to produce an additional of 10 billion piece of gloves by the year 2020.

For the contact lens division , more contact lens will be exported to Japan for the next few quarter and it is expected to show its profit soon .

A high demand of disposable gloves remains vibrant for both the natural rubber and nitrile variants will continue to augur well for the Company and the industry as a whole.

High USD / MYR rates will surely benefit them as a export company .

The share price has been extremely volatile since it climbed up to RM 4. 50 ++ and posted a weak result which resulted in a huge drop to RM 3.09 . It has fall approximately 30 % for the last 7 trading days . Is this a great chance ? Will it back to the top ? Or it is just the starting point ?

 

 

1) Intrinsic Value Analysis :

 

 

Based on our intrinsic value calculation analysis ( assumption of 15 percent LTG ) , Supermax Corp is currently overvalued ( 30 percent higher than fair value ) , the calculated fair value is RM 2.30 as shown above .

 

2) How we calculate our est growth rate ?

Based on its CAPEX , and its segment sentiment .

 

3) PEG RATIO

Based on anticipated growth of 15 percent a year , its PEG RATIO is shown below :

PEG ratio = Current Rolling 4 Quarter PE/ Est Growth Rate

= 20/15

=1.33 (slightly overvalue)

 

4) Chart Pattern Analysis

 

 

i) From The Price Action Chart , this counter is bearish in medium term , we see it as a healthy correction / retracement , however a rebound is imminent and will be occurring in this month , however , in my opinion , the price to enter will be at 2.4-2.65 . We still remain our stand that this segment is still bullish amid US Dollar Strengthen . Besides , this counter started its contact lens business in japan , it will be a catalyst to boost this counter in the long run . With higher CAPEX these few years , we believe that it will become the new star in stock market .

ii) From the Volume Movement Chart , the accu / dis indicator stated that tons of retailers have lost their confident amid vast drop from its peak , however the OBV indicator action is not proportional to the accu/dis indicator , it shows a divergence with it , it means the big market player are still in , only the herd are out .

 

5 ) Forecast PE :

 

Average EPS for each quarter in financial year 2019 = RM 0. 05

 

With a PE of 20 - 25 for Supermx Berhad = RM 0. 05 x 4 x 22

                             =  RM 4. 40

 

A long term upside potential of 35 % based on current price .

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

Labels: SUPERMX
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Bruce88 just buy...no regret !
10/09/2018 8:29 PM
whichone Can it drop lower? Since market like shit
10/09/2018 8:41 PM
calvintaneng TODAY LISTEN TO THIS MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE IN CHINESE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ks-Z3_3eFO8
11/09/2018 1:37 PM
JN88 after collect start to push...good good..
11/09/2018 3:41 PM
JN88 Next week kasi 2.8
11/09/2018 3:41 PM
newbie8080 The last quarter eps only 1.5 cent. How to achieve 5 cents?
11/09/2018 3:58 PM
newbie8080 In my opinion,it needs to factor in the insider trading issue as well. The company also has the lowest efficiency and innovation among gloves manufacturers.
PE=18 (10% off PE=20 allocated)
Based on latest rolling 4Q EPS=0.16, RM2.88 is fair value.
11/09/2018 4:01 PM
superbull11 mark my word , supermx will be settle down at 2.79-2.99 , range this level is supermx turning point
11/09/2018 7:54 PM
angelo More down side for Supermax.
11/09/2018 8:24 PM

[ HEVEA 业绩报告 ] 中长期投资 - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Sat, 25 Aug 2018, 4:43 PM


[ HEVEA 业绩报告 ] 中长期投资 - J4 Investment Capital

 

Fiscal Year ( YoY )

Revenue ( 000’ )

Net Profit ( 000’ )

Profit Margin %

30 June 2018

105,915

4,218

3.98 %

30 June 2017

135,323

16,323

12.06%

Percentage Change %

( 27.76 ) %

( 74.16 ) %

( 67.00 ) %

 

Quarterly ( QoQ )

Revenue ( 000’)

Net Profit ( 000’ )

Profit Margin %

30 June 2018

105,915

4,218

3.98 %

31 March 2018

115,462

2,378

2.06 %

Percentage Change %

( 8.27 ) %

77.38 %

93.20 %

 

营业额/盈利表现

 

Q2’18 的营业额 ( RM 105.915 mil ) 比起去年 ( YoY ) 的 RM 135.323 mil 下跌了 27.76

% . 以 QoQ 来计算也减少了 RM 9.547 mil ( 8.27 % ) . 

盈利方面 : YoY 的 RM 16.323 mil vs RM 4.218 mil 下跌了 ( 74.16 ) % . QoQ 的盈利却

有所进步 , 从 RM 2.378 mil vs RM 4.218 mil 增加了 ( 77.38 % ) . Profit Margin 也从

初的 2.06 % 提高至 3.98 %.

 

Particleboard 的业务

 

1. 较低的营业额是因为市场需求量逐渐减少.

2. 美金/马币比起去年 ( YoY ) 来得低 9 % , 但比起 QoQ 的 12% 进步了3 % .

3. 原料成本 ( Rubber Wood ) 提高了 17 %.

 

RTA ( Ready - To - Assemble ) 业务

 

1. 较低的营业额是因为劳工短缺 , 导致公司无法按计划提高工厂运营率.

2. 成本提高.

3. 无法全面应付订单.

4. USD / MYR 比起去年来得低.

 

蘑菇业务

 

1. 公司还是无法提供任何的盈利贡献 , 但开始有 RM 0.02 mil 的营业额.

2. 总亏损是 RM 0.51 mil .

3. 业务还处于刚开发过程 , 需要时间来稳定.

4. 在 6 月 2018 开始收割.

 

公司展望

 

1. Particleboard 的供应过多. 需求量减少.

2. 贸易战会带来挑战.

3. 公司会在 Particleboard 的业务售卖更高质量的产品.

4. 劳工问题会逐渐的复苏.

 

 

个人观点

 

1. 美金 / 马币走强利多.

2. 劳工短缺的问题已经开始复苏 , 公司也保证会在下一个季度进步.

3. 蘑菇业务会在近几个业绩中开始做出贡献.

4. 属于中长期投资 , 需要更多的时间.

 

Particleboard Manufacturing Sector

 

The revenue and profit before tax reported for this period decreased by RM27.85 million or 23.52% and RM16.82 million or 71.03% as compared to the same period last year. The lower revenue and profit before tax were mainly due to the soft particleboard market sentiment, weakened USD/MYR exchange rate of about 9% and raw material cost increase due mainly to rubber wood by 17% during this reporting period as compared to the same period last year.

 

RTA Manufacturing Sector

 

The revenue and profit before tax reported for this period decreased by RM44.77 million or 25.50% and RM23.46 million or 98.18% as compared to the same period last year. The lower revenue and profit before tax were mainly due to the shortage of foreign workers during the period and this had resulted in high operational costs as optimum production capacity could not be achieved and firmed orders not met. In addition, the weakened USD/MYR exchange rate had also impacted the revenue and profit.

 

Fungi Cultivation

 

The revenue and loss before tax reported for this period were RM0.02 million and RM0.51 million. The low revenue and loss before tax were mainly due to the start-up cost and the commercial harvest only commenced in June 2018.

 

Prospect for the current financial year

 

The global business environment is currently challenging due to additional particleboard capacities coming on stream and the macroeconomic condition is also highly uncertain with the trade war prevailing between US and China. The Board is however of the opinion that with the particleboard sector continuing to focus on developing higher value products, better managing cost and efficiencies, the Group should be able to manage the challenges ahead. As for the RTA sector, labour shortage issue is now resolved and we hope to be able to get back to our desired momentum soonest.

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

Labels: HEVEA
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[ EVERGREEN 业绩报告 ] - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Fri, 24 Aug 2018, 8:17 PM


[ EVERGREEN 业绩报告 ] - J4 Investment Capital

 

Fiscal Year

Revenue( 000’)

 Net Profit (000’)

Profit Margin

30 June 2017

258,982

6,200

2.39%

30 June 2018

289,915

11,959

4.13 %

Percentage increase

11.94%

92.88 %

64.57 %

 

首先 , 以整体表现来看其实公司是比上一个 ( QoQ ) 和去年 ( YoY ) 都来得差 , 进步是在

于公司的营业额和工厂的运营率.

 

营业额表现

 

Q2 ‘ 18 的营业额 ( RM 289.915 mil ) 比起去年 ( YoY ) 的 RM 258.982 mil 增加了11.94 % .

虽然产品的价格在这个季度是下跌的 , 但是因为有位于 Segamat 的一家 Particle Board

厂能贡献较高的产量, 使整体有了进步.

 

以国内的营业额来看 , 也是比去年的 Q2 有较高的营业额 , 原因就在于 Segamat 厂的贡

献.

 

以泰国的营业额来看, 公司在以往都面对了技术上如机器的问题, 使位于泰国的厂无法正

常的运作. 在这个季度却发现到生产线开始全面投入, 销售价格也有所以高, 产量增加 ,因

而贡献了更高的营业额.

 

盈利表现

 

Q2 ‘ 18 的盈利 ( RM 11.959 mil ) 比起 去年 Q2’ 17 ( YoY ) 的 RM 6,200 进步了 92.88 % .

但其中还有包括了 9 mil 的一次性盈利 包括外汇 ( RM 5.5 mil ) , 投资盈利 ( RM 3.1 mil )

 , 变卖机器 ( RM 0.466 mil ) 和利息 ( RM 0.394 mil ) .

 

在国内和本地的盈利表现都是因为较高的产量和外汇盈利让整体的数字提高.

但扣除了所有一次性的盈利后 , 公司的盈利是大约 RM 3 mil , 比起去年的 RM 6 mil (

YoY )  少了 50% , 上个季度 的 RM6.7 mil 少了55 % .

如果只扣除外汇盈利 ( Forex Gain ) 和变卖机器的数额 , 公司的盈利是 RM 5 mil.

 

公司展望

 

公司对正在发生的贸易战还是有一定的挑战和风险. 但由于美金的走高, 原料成本 ( Glue

和 Log ) 在下半年开始下滑 , 使管理层对下一个季度保持乐观, 也相信可以达到满意的表现.

 

个人

以整体表现 , 只要公司可以确保本地和国外的工厂能够正常的运作 , 相信下个 QR ( Q3

‘1 8 ) 是可以达到 RM 300 mil 的. 美金的走高和较低的原料价格 , 有助于公司在未来的盈利 .

 

Thailand segment

 

The Thailand segment’s revenue for the quarter ended 30 June 2018 increased by

11.4% or RM11.78 million to RM115.51 million from RM103.73 million recorded

in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The increase in revenue was mainly

attributable to higher sales volume as a result of higher production volume derived

from upgraded machineries.

 

Profit before tax for the current quarter increased by 76% to RM7.55 million

compared to a profit before tax of RM4.29 million recorded in the corresponding

quarter of the preceding year. The increase in profit was contributed by higher sales

revenue, more synergistic cost savings derived from power plants, and couple with

foreign exchange gain in the current quarter.

 

Malaysia segment

 

The Malaysia segment’s revenue for the quarter ended 30 June 2018 increased by

17.0% or RM22.91 million to RM157.84 million from RM134.93 million recorded

in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The increase in revenue was mainly

contributed by full commercial run of Particle Board Plant in Segamat despite of

lower average selling price of products.

 

Profit before tax for the current quarter increased by RM0.54 million to RM6.47

million compared to a profit before tax of RM5.93 million recorded in the

corresponding quarter of the preceding year. The increase in profit was mainly

attributable to foreign exchange gain in the current quarter compared to foreign

exchange loss incurred in the preceding year corresponding quarter.

 

Consolidated

 

The Group’s revenue for the quarter ended 30 June 2018 increased by 11.9% or

RM30.94 million to RM289.92 million from RM258.98 million recorded in the

preceding year corresponding quarter. Despite of lower average selling price, the

increase in revenue was mainly due to higher sales volume of the Group’s products

especially from full commercial run of Particle Board Plant in Segamat.

Profit before tax for the current quarter increased by 31.1% or RM3.29 million to

RM13.86 million compared to a profit before tax of RM10.57 million recorded in

the corresponding quarter of the preceding year. The increase in profit was mainly

contributed by foreign exchange gain in the current quarter compared to foreign

exchange loss in the preceding year corresponding quarter.

 

Commentary of Prospects

 

While demand for panel boards and furniture remain intact, competition in the

industry continued to heighten with new capacities being launched within the

region. Coupled with uncertainties generated from a possible full fledged trade war

between the two largest economies of the world, the Group expects a more

challenging operating environment in the second half of the year with heighten

price competition. Nonetheless, a stronger USD will help to mitigate some of the

effects from pricing pressure. Production cost is expected to be lower with helped

by falling log and glue prices which came off their year's high levels. With the

challenging operating environment, the Group expects satisfactory results in next

quarter.

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

Labels: EVERGRN
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windcloud 但由于美金的走高, 原料成本 ( Glue 和 Log ) 在下半年开始下滑

Not understand on this one, can explain ?
24/08/2018 8:35 PM
Stocker Strong USD and cost of raw material (glue and log) decrease
24/08/2018 8:41 PM
windcloud still not understand, adhesive glue is it made from polymer/EVA/butadiene … this may extracted from crude oil … if crude oil stand at high price and USD stand at high price … how come the materials cost come down ?

Adhesive glue think is used for merging the particle board ….

Not understand, since not study this counter …. but recently particle board counters share price is up ...
24/08/2018 8:48 PM
windcloud another thing not understand is forex gain ? under what circumstances that derive forex gains ? can explain ?

Need your expert advice since newbie on this, thanks.
24/08/2018 8:50 PM
windcloud forex gain - evergreen is mainly doing export business based in USD, so USD appreciates will produce translation gain, and vice versa. Think is like this.

Only materials one might need you explain unless I find out the answer.
24/08/2018 8:56 PM

[ LAYHONG Berhad ] - What Is The Director Doing ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Sun, 5 Aug 2018, 5:13 PM


[ LAYHONG Berhad ] - What Is The Director Doing ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Lay Hong Berhad is one of the leading fully-integrated livestock farming players in Malaysia . It’s core business activities involve the production of chicken eggs, liquid egg, chilled and frozen dressed chicken, chicken parts and processed related chicken products and retail stores. The company’s upstream products will then be processed into a ready-to-eat product ( frozen fried chicken , functional eggs and nuggets ) which is their main downstream products where they can enjoy a better profitability and less volatile selling prices. The company has also created their own brand known as NutriPLus and Wise Choice . The businesses are carried out primarily in Peninsular Malaysia state of Selangor, Perak, Melaka and Sabah in East Malaysia whereas the retail operation is concentrated only in the state of Sabah. The company has a few existing poultry processing facilities consisting of a slaughterhouse, cutting room and further processing plant in Selangor .

 

For the layer sector - One of the farm was built in the vicinity where the existing 11 modern closed house layers farms are located in Selangor and Melaka. With these additions, the aggregated production capacity of eggs per day for the Group have increased from 2.2 million production per day to 3.0 million. The total capacity for the production is up to 3 million eggs per day . Grade ‘A’ egg prices are estimated to be priced at RM0.38/each on average for Feb 2018 against RM0.35/each in Jun 2017.

 

For the broiler sector - There is a total of 10 existing broiler farm which is located in Selangor and Sabah .Two new environmental controlled broiler farms equipped with the latest rearing technology have been completed during the said period. One in Peninsular Malaysia and the other is in Sabah. Total additional capacity generated will be 600,000 broilers per 60 days cycle. One more new farm located in the existing vicinity of Tanjong Karang, Kuala Selangor with a capacity of further 450,000 broilers per cycle is under construction and is planned to be fully completed during the current financial year ending 31st March, 2019. With these new capacities coming on stream, the Group will be able to produce up to 4.00 million broilers per 60 days cycle. The planned increase is to meet the rising demand from existing chicken processing operation as well as from the Joint Venture Company with NH Foods Ltd for HALAL chicken meat as its raw material. The total capacity for the production of broilers is 4 million per day .

 

For the Pasteurised Liquid Egg Sector - The Group currently operates one pasteurized liquid egg plant. This plant is located in Meru, Klang and has a capacity to pasteurise up to 400 metric tonnes of customized liquid egg products per month such as egg white, yolk, whole egg, liquid egg with salt or sugar or other ingredients. Currently, approximately twenty (20) percent of the total fresh table eggs produced by the Group are pasteurised into liquid egg and sold to local industrial users and export market such as Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam and South Korea . To meet rising demand especially from the Southern Region and Singapore, the Company through its fully owned subsidiary company Lay Hong Liquid Egg Sdn Bhd has acquired a newly built factory in Iskander Halal Park, Pasir Gudang, Johor, to set up its second egg processing facility. It is expected it to be fully commissioned in the forthcoming financial year ending 31st March, 2019.

 

For the retail supermaket sector - The Group currently operates seventeen 17 retail outlets. However , they are still having loss in this sector because of the minimum wage and previous 6% GST system . The write off of the sunk renovation cost of the non performing outlet closed during the year also contributed to the pre-tax loss .

 

Joint Venture with NH Foods Ltd , Japan - A joint venture company called NHF Manufacturing

(Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. has been incorporated in May 2016 and has since commenced operation. Lay Hong Bhd owned 49% or 14.70 million ordinary shares and is represented by two nominee directors. The other 51% is owned by the above. Construction of the manufacturing facility currently located in Selangor Halal Hub, Pulau Indah is in progress and is targeted to be fully operationally by the 4th quarter of the calendar year 2018.

 

Causes that make the price plunge :

 

1) There is a news where a flu virus currently spreading in Sabah Region in Tuaran . However , the Sabah Veterinary Services Department has announced it and state that it is under controlled .

 

2) Director selling warrants hard . Mr . Yap Hoong Chai has acquired 33 millions of warrants at a price of RM 0.50 , which is worth RM 16.5 mil in Jun . However , he then sold 16 millions of it at the price of RM 0.4 for RM 6.4 mil in late July . The transaction based on the two months has made him a loss of RM 8.5 mil .

 

But why did he keep on throwing his shares for no reason ? Will the price continue to drop just because he still has tons of shares to sell ? Or you should buy on the fundamental and the strong growth of this company ? 

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

 

 

Labels: LAYHONG
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lizi Insider selling at loss is indeed a red flag.
05/08/2018 6:09 PM
shortinvestor77 Exactly.
06/08/2018 8:23 AM
joekit too competitive ady lar....more n more chicken egg seller now...price plunging soon....good lor....chicken egg is basic food ma....pakatan win chicken egg price will fly meh? hahahahaha
07/08/2018 9:17 AM
JackPonting Superb blog. Really i loved to read your informative blog. Looking forward for more new blog.

-Jack
http://www.qualitydissertation.co.uk/nursing-coursework-help
30/04/2019 5:42 PM

[ YOCB ] - A Left-behind Consumer Company ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Thu, 26 Jul 2018, 10:47 PM


[ YOCB ] - A Left-behind Consumer Company ??? - J4 Investment Capital

 

 

Yoong Onn Corperation Berhad is an integrated designer, manufacturer, distributor and retailer of bed and bath linen , bedding accessories , curtains , carpets with more than 50 years of experience in this field . This company has created their own 10 main brands of home linen for premium to mid-range consumers around the world especially in Asia and Middle- East . They are now tying up with the foreign major and prominent mattress manufacturer and distributor where by they design and manufacture bedding, and related products for their local and overseas market.

 

In 2000 , they have set- up a new manufacturing plant on its 9.3 acres of land in Nilai , Negeri Sembilan to increase production capacity . There are also 2 new warehouse in their Nilai factory with a total up more than 165,000 sq.ft of storage capacity built in 2012 and 2015 respectively.  

 

Their products are also available in departmental stores, specialty stores and hypermarkets. To date, the group has 280 consignment counters in Malaysia, primarily in high-traffic retail chains such as Aeon , Sogo, Isetan, Metrojaya, Harvey Norman, Parkson, Tesco and Robinsons. There are a few brands which are more popular including Novelle, Jean Perry, Louis Casa, Genova, Niki Cains, Diana, and Cotonsoft where we can find it near the bedding accessories section in the store .

 

To even expand their company’s business and gain more reputation , the company has set up a fully - owned retail store - “ Home’s Harmony “ all around Malaysia. Until the year of 2017, it has a total of 20 retail outlets ( 2 new stores in 2017 ) opening wide in Selangor , Kuala Lumpur and Penang .

 

Besides , the group is also involved in the hospitality- based institutions ( hospital , military , cruise ships , as well as the hotels and resorts . This is to maintain a strong , continuous supply of products to a specific customer for a longer period of time .

 

So what’s making this company much more stronger for those value - investor ?

 

1. A high dividend yield of 4 + % .

2. A stable yet growing company .

3. Benefiting in a weaker MYR rates .

4. Leaving far from the trade wars .

5. A 0% GST for 2 months .

 

In the company’s prospect , the group is optimistic with their business remaining strong for the rest of the year and in 2018, despite a less robust global economic outlook which may affect their domestic performance and their export markets in the region. The Group aims to grow from strength to strength over the years and to achieve sustainable growth in sales and profits every year. They are now focusing on their own retail-store business where they wish to expand it not only in Malayisa . With the advantage of a weaker MYR rates and 0% GST for the 2 months , the company may achieve a better result compared to the last quarter result .

 

Intrinsic Value :

The intrinsic value of YOCB calculated using cash valuation method is 0.48 ( included all borrowings) , which is lower than its current closing price of 1.22 . It is due to the less cash holding by this company , however we expect that the cash flow of this company will improve together with the improvement in revenue and profit . From the calculation of intrinsic value , this stock is overvalued.

PER RATIO CALCULATION = PE / Est Growth %

                                               = 8.2 / 15

                                               = 0.55 ( undervalue )

 

Fair value calculation = Est Growth x Current rolling 4 quarter EPS

                                      = 15 x 14.88 sen

                                      = RM 2.23 (  83 % potential gain )

 

Technical Analysis :

 

 

Based on the chart above , there’s a signal on a upcoming bullish- trend after a perfect cup and handle pattern has formed . This indicates an end of a downtrend momentum and creates a reversal trend . A strong support has been comfirmed at the price of RM 1.15 and there will be a resistance at RM 1.25 . I strongly believe that there will be a breakout soon if the price successfully maintained above the support line . To be safe , it is more encourageable to consider your price after the breakout at RM 1.28 or above the support line RM 1.15 .

 

 

Based on the indicators above , there is a significant money flowing into the market and is accumulating it since May. The a MACD Golden Cross signal which indicates a positive sentiment with a ongoing bull trend .

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , gives us a LIKE and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

 

Labels: YOCB
  2 people like this.
 
Huat5828 Is the price going to move up?
27/07/2018 9:10 AM

[ EKOVEST ] - How is it considered as undervalue ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 Jul 2018, 8:02 PM


[ EKOVEST ] - How is it considered as undervalue ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Ekovest Berhad is a stable yet slow-growing company which involves in 3 main business divisions- Construction , Property Development and Toll Operation for almost 30 years of experience.

This company is holding a total of RM 14 billion worth of contracts until now which will keep them busy for at least 3 - 5 years .

 

For the construction sector - its subsidiary company ( EkoRiver Construction Sdn Bhd ) has been awarded a few mega projects from DBKL which is known as River Of Life to transform and upgrade the locations near Klang River area . Those mega projects is awarded to the company in 2016 , 2017 and 2018 March , at total worth of RM 600 million .

 

For the Property Development sector - the company currently have a land bank of 39 acres located primarily in northern Kuala Lumpur where they will be focusing in for the next few years . While there are also 25 acres of land in Johor Bahru and 12 acres of land in Kuantan . In 2017 , the company has also obtained their permit to develop an area near Gombak which is known as the “ Kuala Lumpur River City “ . The ongoing project - EkoCheras ( 3 exquisite serviced apartments, a Grade A office tower, a classy hotel and four storeys of urban lifestyle shopping mall ) and EkoTitiwangsa ( 3 blocks of freehold service apartments with a total of 696 units and retail spaces ) and other projects which worth more than RM 7 billion .

 

For the Toll Operation sector - The company currently involves in 3 highways which is located around Kuala Lumpur , DUKE 1 , DUKE 2 and DUKE 3 ( Setiawangsa Pantai Expressway - SPE ) . In the year 2016 , the company has sold 40% of DUKE 1 and 2 highways ‘ share to EPF , for an amount of RM 1.3 billion . The remaining highways , DUKE 1 and DUKE 2 ( 60 % ) have started to fully operate early this year and the contract is due to Aug 2059 . The SPE highway worth RM 3.7 billion is currently in process and is expected to be done in early 2020 and the contract is due to Aug 2069 .

 

However , the company ‘s executive chairman , Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo who is believed to have a close relationship with the former government is one of the reason making the investors exiting at instant after PH take over the government . In the PH ‘s manifesto , they had announced to review all the projects and to abolish all the tolls in Malaysia . These had made the situation even worse where there is almost 30 % of the company ‘s revenue is from the Toll Operation sector . DUKE 1 and DUKE 2 highway which has just started operating early this year and DUKE 3 highway ( SPE ) where it is said to be completed in 2020 will be completely wasted and the company may not be able to maintain their annual growth .

 

Is that a worry to you ? There ‘s a few point need to be highlighted . First of all , PH government promised not to take revenge on those company which previously sided BN . Most of the projects awarded have been on - going for more than 2 years and there is no reason to be pulled - back yet need to to be paid for a huge amount of cash . Although there is no guarantee in future , but based on their toll operating sector where there is 40 % of DUKE 1 and 2 ‘s shares belongs to EPF , will the government purposely creates a huge loss to its own department ? The on - going SPE highway has started since 2016 , it has already reached half- way through its completion . The both DUKE 1 and 2 highway has a NTA price of RM 0.79 which is about 10 % below current price (RM 0.715 ) excluding the SPE highway , company assets and receivable value . This is why we chose it as a very very undervalued stock .

 

P/E : 11.89

ROE : 6.63

Profit Margin : 8.4 %

DY : 2.8 %

NTA : 0.93

E/Y : 11.24

Debt to Equity : 0.4

EV/ EBIT : 8.9

Price to Book : 0.66

Dividend Policy : -

 

Intrinsic Value Analysis:

 

 

According to cash valuation method , with a conservative estimate growth ( 10 % ) , the intrinsic value indicated is RM 2.56 ( included debts) which is higher than the current trading price of ( 0.715 ). Pursuant to this valuation method , there is a 253 % gain in the long run .

NOTE : The est growth% is based on our analysis on fundamental and future prospect , the assumption need not to be 100 % accurate , it is just a rough figure that we estimate .

PER Ratio = PE / Est . Growth %

                  =11.6 / 10

                  = 1.6 ( overvalue )

 

Technical Analysis :

 

 

It’s late to publish our analysis on Ekovest , there is a very clear signal on the yellow bounded region ( key reversal day) , followed by three bullish flag pennants and the fourth in making .

 

TP1 : 0. 78

TP2 : 0. 89

 

Support : 0.7 / 0. 66

 

It is quite a good entry point on the current trading price , with a positive momentum , the trend reversal is being confirmed and there is a potential RM 0.19 potential gain at our recommended buying price of 0.70 .

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page , give us a like and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

 

 

Labels: EKOVEST
  3 people like this.
 
cheoky more undervalued is mini ekovest-azrb
24/07/2018 8:46 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" i lazy to do a SOP valuation for their 3 separate businesses.

just based on highway valuation already more than market cap.
24/07/2018 9:26 PM
paperplane We all know is undervalued,but why not perceived it that way? Think deeper.then is it worth taking the risk to buy and hold
25/07/2018 12:18 AM
Dondon Ya every body know ekovest is undervalue.

I Buy in ekovest to bet on political view.

I bet on ph new government won't dare to go populism.
They will go practical , capitalism and business friendly administration.

Use hard earned money to bet on personal political view , instead of empty blow water in coffee shop like uncle

Take advantage of it,if believe in own point of view
25/07/2018 1:41 AM
Jonathan Keung botak make a blunder when he tried to merge ekovest with iwh. prices dragged south plus the GE 14 result. topping it cancellation of major china backed investment link companies by new pH. botak is known have close links with Kunnan { FT minister }. all this adds up to the negative on ekovest
25/07/2018 7:26 AM
paperplane Thts history. Let's move on
25/07/2018 2:08 PM
Jonathan Keung yup.fundamentals are good but dragged down by people perceptions and timing. just keeping my finger crossed for better days. if higher yields and dividends forthcoming ?this FY funds will have a relook at ekovest
25/07/2018 3:26 PM
ClaraLane https://www.mql5.com
25/07/2018 5:38 PM
IdaWallace It was nice to know about the leading Construction engineering company, Ekovest Berhad and understand its mechanism for Property Development and construction sector.

Ida,
http://www.assignmenthelpfolks.com/
10/12/2018 6:14 PM
AlyssaPatterson Worth reading here about Ekovest Berhad which is a constant yet slow-growing company which includes in three main business divisions- Construction , Property Development and Toll Operation for almost 30 years of experience.


Alyssa,
http://www.secureassignmenthelp.com/
09/01/2019 8:34 PM

[ LUXCHEM GROUP ] - Next LCTITAN ? - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Sun, 22 Jul 2018, 12:37 PM


[ LUXCHEM GROUP ] - Next LCTITAN ? - J4 Investment Capital


今年可说是手套股辉煌的一年 , TOPGLOV , HARTA , KOSSAN 和 SUPERMX , 股价都通通突破历

史新高 。随着手套的需求不断增长,理建机构(LUXCHEM,5143,主板贸服股)旗下的TMSB也成功

成为理建机构的摇钱树。


LUXCHEM在2008年上市,主要业务为化学品制造及贸易。理建生产超过400种化学品及非饱和聚

酯树脂Unsaturated Polyester Resin(简称UPR)并出口至13个国家包括印尼,泰国,越南,澳洲,新

加坡等等,拥有相当庞大的客户群。理建于2016年4月收购了TRANSFORM MASTER SDN

BHD(TMSB), 收购价为RM4450万。

 

TMSB主要业务涉及生产乳胶化学品,而这类化学品主要用于制造乳胶产品,包括乳胶手套。自

2014年起,TMSB已是LUXCHEM化工乳胶的供应商.TMSB目前已全面利用,产能为每年2万公吨。

TMSB 的表现亮眼,证明了公司的策略是对的。


理建也在去年支出400万提升理建位于马六甲的聚合物厂(提升1万吨的容量)及300万令吉扩大槟城仓

库从原本的 27,610 平方英尺提升至 57,340 平方英尺(+108%)。年报中也提及理建的货物目前都放

在马六甲,槟城及霹雳实兆远的厂房内,未来将在巴生港口英达岛兴建仓库,填海计划预算为1000

万令吉,但目前还未开始兴建产房,因为需要时间等泥土凝固,最快也得等到明年才能投入运作。


公司在 Q1‘ 18 的首季营业额跌了10%,报1亿9665万3000令吉,对比上财年同季2亿1813万2000令

吉。本季税后利润对比上个季度增加了3%。


Q1 的业绩受几个因素影响, 其中包括 :


1.美元贬值


2.原料价格起伏(有人提出疑问关于油价上涨是否会影响公司盈利,而管理层表示油价上涨所造成

的负担将转嫁给消费者,对公司盈利不造成影响)


3.UPR因台湾业者入驻而竞争激烈


4.聚氯乙烯(PVC)订单因本地建筑领域放缓而表现疲弱


以下是公司的一些基本面 :


P/E : 14.94


ROE : 13.54%


Profit Margin : 4.68%


DY : 6.25


NTA : 6.25%


E/Y : 9.3%


Debt to Equity : 0.34


EV/ EBIT : 10.75


Price to Book : 1.93


Dividend Policy : -

 

在上一季的报告出炉后 , 美金开始走强至现在的一美元兑RM 4.06 , 对理建非常有利,因为公司30%

的营业额来自出口。公司管理层也表示会全力发展海外业务尤其是印尼和越南,因为出口销售在去

年贡献了76%的制造业务营业额,同时也可避开国内激烈的竞争。手套领域更严格的卫生标准也让

理建收益,因为它符合严格的卫生标准。此外,理建拥有健康的现金流,手上持有RM 1.06亿现

金,派息率也大约是净利的40%-45%。目前公司处于零负债状态。笔者认为理建值得长期持有,因

为公司稳定派息,而且也一直努力提升自身的竞争能力,并且不断扩大公司规模,当然手套需求提

高也是值得持股的因素。

 

Technical Analysis :

 

Although there’s a long term downtrend line ahead , however it has formed a double bottom which may indicates a U-turn or a slowly changing of an upward trend. A strong support line has been set up which is at 0.585 , the first resistance will be at 0.65 , just a slightly above the current price 0.64 ) . The price is trying to break through the first resistance , however it has failed a couple of times. The 2nd and 3rd resistance will be at 0.68 and 0.715 respectively . Currently , it will be more suitable for short-term traders where they can by it either above the support line or above the resistance 1’s price .

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice ,

please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page and share it out so that we share more things !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

Labels: LUXCHEM
  Patrick13 likes this.
 
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Adui ! Lux is good and stable.
But far different from LCtitan lar.
22/07/2018 2:29 PM
Aero1 Good defensive stock same time presents certain growth story.
23/07/2018 10:17 AM
Aero1 Interim dividend coming ..
23/07/2018 10:19 AM

[ GKENT , GAMUDA ] - Is Double G Really Worthy NOW ??? - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Sat, 21 Jul 2018, 1:34 PM


[ GKENT , GAMUDA ] - Is Double G Really

Worthy NOW ??? - J4 Investment Capital

 

As everyone knew for the past few months , construction counters have been striked hard by the news release by our new government. First of all , let me tell you about something you all should know , after PH Government has won the GE- 14 , they promised to review all the mega projects signed previously by the BN Government. Due to the 1 trillion debt faced by our government , they had no choice but to suspend ECRL ( RM 66 billion )  , LRT 3 ( RM 31 billion ) and HSR ( RM 110 bil ) mega projects which is worth total ( RM 207 billion ) . After the news have been reported out , almost every construction stocks involved in these projects became “ waterfall “ in seconds .

 

However , our government then announced that they may not really cancel but to cut the cost or even delay the project so that the projects can still carry on in future . They have carried out a few steps to save these projects including :


1) Reduced the cost of LRT 3 by half ( RM16. 63 billion ) .

2) Negotiate with the China Government by this month about the cost of ECRL .

3) Negotiate with the Singapore Government on next month about the cost of HSR .

 

When the cost-cutting news of LRT 3 came out , the price of few construction stocks rebound high especially GKENT , GAMUDA and MRCB . However the price has go smooth in these few weeks due to the uncertainty and fear from the investors towards the result of negotiation among the Malaysia and China Government.

 

In my point of view , I am expecting our PH Government will negotiate well with the China Government by either cutting the cost of the railway project or by changing the terms of getting all the building materials imported from China as our government is trying to make this project fully  benefits the Rakyats. I think those projects stated above will most likely to continue with a lower cost , and might not cancel it directly because they are all started and reach a certain progress. It is not easy to cancel it especially it is involved in two huge countries like China and Singapore .

 

Therefore , will the price for GKENT and Gamuda worth now ?

 

GKENT

 

Intrinsic value analysis :

 

1) The intrinsic value is far higher than its current trading price of 1.47 ( 274 % potential profit ) .

It is undervalued because of the GE14 which make the market sentiment down especially in the construction sector .

 

2) PEG ratio

= 6.5 /8

=0.8125 <1 ( undervalue)

Fair Price Calculation

= 8 x 22.63

=1.81

 

Chart Pattern Analysis:

 

 

The price just closed above MA 30 , indicates a strong upward momentum . On Balance Volume : strong inflow , short term retracement will be located at 1.42 .

 

Gamuda

 

 

Chart Pattern Analysis :

1) A double bottom formation is completed and followed by its expected breakout from the neckline at a violent volume. The TP at 3.90 was hit and a retracement is going to occur very soon back to 3.52-3.58. Wait for the retracement , don’t rush in be patient . Wait for the next clear buying point to occur to avoid bearing any unwanted risk . Remember the Golden Rule, BUY AT THE SAFEST POINT BUT NOT THE LOWEST POINT .

 

2) CONSTRUCTION STOCK are more likely to be a rebound instead of a trend reversal, beware of the market player trick , before all the mega infrastructure project is confirmed and started to be open tendered , don’t enter the construction stock , entering at the point where uncertainties occur , is a gambling on a 50:50 news.

 

2) Intrinsic Value

 

 

From the view of intrinsic value , it is sorry to say that it is currently highly overvalued (110 % higher than its intrinsic value ), it is all based on the statistical data .

 

4) PEG RATIO

Current PE : 12.65

EST GROWTH &: 16

PEG RATIO = 12.65 / 16

          = 0.79 <1 ( under market expectation )

Fair price calculation =Est Growth x EPS

                       = 16 x 29.08

= 4.65

5) Conclusion:

To wait for the price plunge below the intrinsic value is mostly impossible , this is the intrinsic value that reflects upon current situation BUT NOT REFLECTING FUTURE STATUS , I suggest a valuation method by using PEG Ratio is much more suitable for this.

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

Feel free to visit our FB Page and share it out so that we share more things !!!

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital.

 

 

 

Labels: GKENT, GAMUDA
  Be the first to like this.
 
KAQ4468 waaaaa


gamuda berani la


gkent tarak berani la ... confirmed hangus.. jual meter air only ...kah kah kah
23/07/2018 9:13 AM
cherry88 MRCB ?
23/07/2018 1:25 PM
J4InvestmentCapital https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/mrcb_j4/165634.jsp
23/07/2018 4:56 PM
jules2263 Gk went to 0.98. If you were watching the fundamentals you would have known it was politics and bought not just below the intrinsic value but below the cash per share sitting in the bank, with more being put in all the time as it was a profitable business. Up 60% the other day from that point, always watch the fundamentals.
27/07/2018 12:17 PM

[ FBMKLCI , TOP 100 , MID , SMALL CAP , ACE ] - BULL IS COMING TO TOWNl !!! - J4 Investment Capital

Author: J4InvestmentCapital   |  Publish date: Wed, 18 Jul 2018, 7:58 PM


[ FBMKLCI , TOP 100 , MID , SMALL CAP , ACE ] - BULL IS COMING TO TOWN !!! - J4 Investment Capital

 

From the view of fundamental, our FBM KLCI is now at a PE ratio of 17.76 , it has fall from the top of 18.5 which is the highest point in a year .

 

There are some factors that made our index to fall :

 

1. General Election on 9th of May 2018

2. BN Loss

3. Trade War between U.S. and China

4. Unstable MYR and USD

5. US Interest Rates

6. Weaker Quarterly Report

7. Newly formed government

8. Delay of the list of cabinets

9. Cancellation of HSR , LRT 3 , ECRL

10. Welcome to the 1 trillion debt country .

 

However , these factor seems to be digested during the upper half of 2018 . First of all , the full list of cabinets have been announce and there is no possibility of any unwanted tragedy to happen. The 1 Trillion News has already become a past , because our new Ministry of Finance has stated that our country’s debt has reduced for RM 2000 mil . The cancellation of HSR and ECRL have already returned to the table for further negotiation for both sites which is Singapore and China . While LRT 3 has been officially resumed their projects.

 

So , is it time to end this bear market and back to the BULLL ? Let’s see it from the view of technical :

 

 

From the technical chart above , the downtrend support is recently tested for the third time ( commonly the last time ) , the break out of double bottom formation gives us a confirmation signal that it is indeed a trend reversal from bearish to bullish , but not only a rebound , the R3 (1760.9) will be a strong resistance , a violent breakout with high volume will be a signal for investor to rush in very quickly , a pullback is done and the strongest bull market is returning . KLSE compotite index stock is the star in making , especially banking sector , and oil and gas sector .

 

 

For the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 technical overview , the breaking of downtrend line and breakout from the symmetrical triangle is a clear signal for a bullish market to start , with a target projected target of 15900 , it means all the mid cap stock are going to have a surge in price , we suggest to build up your portfolio from now before it is too late .

 

 

 

FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 technical chart overview , there are actually nothing much to comment on the chart , one word to describe the entire situation : BULLISH . Breaching the short term downtrend line is a indicator for the strong reversal strength , There is still a strong resistance on 14588 , and with a TP of 14588 ( 9 percent ).

 

 

FTSE Bursa Malaysia ACE Board technical review , the same as what we have mentioned above , breakout from its downtrend and tend to be a reversal signal , double bottom , synmentrical triangle formation , ALL BREAKOUT . TP 1: 5648  TP2:5900

 

Disclaimer : Information above is for sharing and education purposes , not a buy and sell advice , please refer to ur advisory for any buy or sell call , buy and sell at your own risk .

 

Happy investing !

 

Feel free to visit our FB Page and share it out so that we can share more things to you !!!

 

https://www.facebook.com/J4-Investment-Capital-398139627315097/

 

J4 Investment Capital

  3 people like this.
 
shahbj Very informative supported with the good technical chart details...bravo mr J4 -)
19/07/2018 3:12 AM


 

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