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Author: kcchongnz   |   Latest post: Tue, 9 Oct 2018, 06:26 PM

 

Return of value investing: My established records Part 2 kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Tue, 9 Oct 2018, 06:26 PM


In my latest article, “Return of Value Investing: My established records Part 1” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/176865.jsp

Someone posted this comment,

[Posted by qqq3 > Oct 9, 2018 03:55 PM | Report Abuse https://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

kc
jokes aside.....your methodology don't work, have not for at least a year.......one day, it may work again.....]

Like I have said, if life, nothing works all the time. It is the same as in investing. In investing, as long as the strategy is plausible, and it works more often than not, and when it works, we gain a lot, but when it doesn’t work, our loss is little, then we will be doing very well over the long term.

In my recent article, “Does “value investing” work and what are the evidences?” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/174215.jsp

I have shown the exemplified returns of nine disciples of Benjamin Graham who had used different ways of value investing and generated annual compounded returns (CAGR) of between 18% and 29% over track records lasting between 14 to 30 years, 2 times to more than 4 times the CAGR of the broad markets over the same period.

In my subsequent article using stocks in Bursa, “Does “value investing” work in Bursa?” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/175060.jsp

I have also shown some big cap stocks chosen randomly returned an average of 379% over the last 10 years, or a CAGR of 16.5%, more than 3 times the 5.2% of the broad index during the same period.

The other evidence I provided was the compilation of 20 small cap “bull” stocks listed in Bursa by the Chinese investment periodical, Busy Weekly, which returned over 1000% over the 10 years, or a CAGR of more than 30%.

Furthermore, In my latest article, “Return of Value Investing: My established records Part 1” in this link,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/176865.jsp

 

I summarized the returns of four portfolios which I shared in i3investor from more than 5 years ago, using the principles and various methodologies of value investing.

I have shown that the portfolio of 10 stocks named “GE13 Watch” established in i3investor on 21st January 2013 returned 146%, more than seven times the return of the broad market of just 20% in the same period of about 5 years till the end of year 2017, with all stocks in the portfolio making positive returns.

My second portfolio of 11 stocks named “2013 2H Stock Pick Challenge” established in i3investor on 1st August 2013 returned 175% in about four years as end of July 2017, against the return of the broad market of just 10% during the same period.

My third established portfolio in i3investor was done at the end of year 2015 for investing for year 2016, using the high dividend yield investing strategy. This portfolio of 5 high dividend stocks has gained an average of 67.4% for the one-and-a-half-year period as on 5th April 2017, compared to the gain of the broad market of just 3.8% during the same period.

My last established record in i3investor was in the stock pick challenge for 2017. I did not do that well in this portfolio of stock, but it is still a positive return of 5% at the end of the year, underperformed the broad market.

Overall the portfolios of stocks did very well and fulfilled the very gaols and objectives of value investing,

 

Besides these 4 portfolios of stocks, there were also many individual stocks I had shared in i3investor over those years, and most of them had done very well too. Of course, some, but few in comparison did not do well too.

I would say I have done enough goodwill in i3investor by sharing my portfolios of stocks. I had spent a lot of time and effort carrying out detail analysis and valuations, and shared in investor too. I am glad many readers appreciated my work, and some of them joined my online value investing course. There were also many criticisms and mockeries too, some even went personal attack, especially on those few stocks I shared which did not do well. That is part of the hazards in the internet space.

After that, I have decided not to share any particular stocks in i3investor anymore, but continuously sharing my thoughts on the principles and methodologies of value investing with the aim of educating the newbies on value investing, and avoid the pitfalls in investing in the stock market. Instead I started stock pick service for my course participants who have attended my course and understand my philosophies, but have no time, or have not acquired the knowledge, experience and confidence in investing due to their busy work schedule.

 

Returns of my stock pick service

In April 2016, a first stock pick cum practical investing service for Bursa was offered by me to my past online investment course participants when I was in Melbourne. That was the most memorable one.

After one and a half year when the service concluded, the portfolio of 14 stocks returned an average 39.3% as on 11th November 2017, against the gain of the broad market of KLCI of just 4.5% during the same period, for a whopping excess return of 35%. The SmallCap Index returned about 15% during the same period.

My second similar stock pick service started slightly less than 2 years ago. It was concluded one year later in November 2017 with a commendable average and median portfolio return of 24% and 40% respectively, three times the gain of 8.9% of the broad FBMKLCI index. The SmallCap Index returned about 13% during the same period.

My third stock pick service started about 16 months ago and it was concluded at the end of August 2018. Unfortunately, the service went through a period of steep corrections due to the trade war, problems with the export stocks on increase in costs of labour and materials, the strengthening of Ringgit, the fallout of the local equity market, especially for the construction and SmallCap stocks after GE14 etc. The portfolio of stocks lost 5.0% compared to the gain of the broad KLCI of +2.3% during the same period.

However, compared to the more relevant tracking benchmark of FBM Small cap Index which the portfolio of stocks was mostly made up of, the loss of the portfolio is way below the loss of 16.5% of FBM Small Cap Index during the same period.

My fourth stock pick service started at the end of last year and it has again gone through the difficult time and it is still ongoing. Despite of that, as at end of September 2018, the portfolio of 6 stocks selected using the value investing strategy still made a small gain of 1.9%, compared to the gain of 0.9% of FBMKLSE. Compared with the small cap index of which most of the stocks in the portfolio are made up of, it is an overwhelming overperformance again with an excess return of 16.8% as the FBM Small Cap Index has lost 14.9% over the same period.

 

Conclusions

Again, my experience in value investing has shown that it works very well, both in the short-term as well as the long term. However, I do admit that past performance may not be reflected in the future, especially in the short-term. I would be happy if it works for the long term alone.

And also, I am not saying only value investing works, or only my method works, but it works for me.

Why do people continue to ridicule FVI despite all the evidences that it has worked, it is still working, and that it is continuing to work?

I like to borrow what a “quilow”, Seth Klarmen said below,

You know there are really many famous and proven very successful “quilow” value investors in US. In contrast, there are few in Malaysia. The only one who is active and worth mention now in Malaysia is Coldeye, but his writing is in Chinese. There may be a few more good ones, some young ones, but they are not yet established. That is why I like to use established “quilow” value investors as guidance.

Again, if you are interested in acquiring the knowledge of value investing, or if you have no time but still wish to invest in Bursa safely, slowly but surely to build long-term wealth, you may also participate in my new stock pick service by contacting me at,

ckc14invest@gmail.com

 

KC Chong

 

 

 

 

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3iii >>>Returns of my stock pick service

In April 2016, a first stock pick cum practical investing service for Bursa was offered by me to my past online investment course participants when I was in Melbourne. That was the most memorable one.

After one and a half year when the service concluded, the portfolio of 14 stocks returned an average 39.3% as on 11th November 2017, against the gain of the broad market of KLCI of just 4.5% during the same period, for a whopping excess return of 35%. The SmallCap Index returned about 15% during the same period.

My second similar stock pick service started slightly less than 2 years ago. It was concluded one year later in November 2017 with a commendable average and median portfolio return of 24% and 40% respectively, three times the gain of 8.9% of the broad FBMKLCI index. The SmallCap Index returned about 13% during the same period.

My third stock pick service started about 16 months ago and it was concluded at the end of August 2018. Unfortunately, the service went through a period of steep corrections due to the trade war, problems with the export stocks on increase in costs of labour and materials, the strengthening of Ringgit, the fallout of the local equity market, especially for the construction and SmallCap stocks after GE14 etc. The portfolio of stocks lost 5.0% compared to the gain of the broad KLCI of +2.3% during the same period.

However, compared to the more relevant tracking benchmark of FBM Small cap Index which the portfolio of stocks was mostly made up of, the loss of the portfolio is way below the loss of 16.5% of FBM Small Cap Index during the same period.

My fourth stock pick service started at the end of last year and it has again gone through the difficult time and it is still ongoing. Despite of that, as at end of September 2018, the portfolio of 6 stocks selected using the value investing strategy still made a small gain of 1.9%, compared to the gain of 0.9% of FBMKLSE. Compared with the small cap index of which most of the stocks in the portfolio are made up of, it is an overwhelming overperformance again with an excess return of 16.8% as the FBM Small Cap Index has lost 14.9% over the same period.<<<<



KC's Stock Pick Service

Period 1: APRIL 2016 TO NOVEMBER 2017

Started in April 2016.
After 1 1/2 year (11th November, 2017): the portfolio of 14 stocks returned an average 39.3% as on 11th November 2017.
Gain of the broad market of KLCI of just 4.5% during the same period.
The SmallCap Index returned about 15% during the same period.



Period 2: ?NOVEMBER 2016 TO NOVEMBER 2017

Started slightly less than 2 years ago (?end of 2016).
It was concluded one year later in November 2017.
Average and median portfolio return of 24% and 40% respectively.
Broad FBMKLCI index: gain of 8.9% .
The SmallCap Index returned about 13% during the same period.



Period 3: ?JULY 2017 TO AUGUST 2018

Started about 16 months ago (?July 2017)
Concluded at the end of August 2018.
The portfolio of stocks lost 5.0%.
The broad KLCI of gained +2.3% during the same period.
FBM Small cap Index: loss of 16.5% during the same period.



Period 4: END OF 2017 TO SEPTEMBER 2018

Started at the end of last year (end of 2017).
At end of September 2018: gain of 1.9%.
The portfolio of 6 stocks selected (mainly small cap stocks) using the value investing strategy.
FBMKLSE for same period: gain of 0.9%.
FBM Small Cap Index has lost 14.9% over the same period.
10/10/2018 13:29
3iii KC's Stock Pick Service

Period 1: APRIL 2016 TO NOVEMBER 2017

Started in April 2016.
After 1 1/2 year (11th November, 2017): the portfolio of 14 stocks returned an average 39.3% as on 11th November 2017.
Gain of the broad market of KLCI of just 4.5% during the same period.
The SmallCap Index returned about 15% during the same period.



Period 2: ?NOVEMBER 2016 TO NOVEMBER 2017

Started slightly less than 2 years ago (?end of 2016).
It was concluded one year later in November 2017.
Average and median portfolio return of 24% and 40% respectively.
Broad FBMKLCI index: gain of 8.9% .
The SmallCap Index returned about 13% during the same period.



Period 3: ?JULY 2017 TO AUGUST 2018

Started about 16 months ago (?July 2017)
Concluded at the end of August 2018.
The portfolio of stocks lost 5.0%.
The broad KLCI of gained +2.3% during the same period.
FBM Small cap Index: loss of 16.5% during the same period.



Period 4: END OF 2017 TO SEPTEMBER 2018

Started at the end of last year (end of 2017).
At end of September 2018: gain of 1.9%.
The portfolio of 6 stocks selected (mainly small cap stocks) using the value investing strategy.
FBMKLSE for same period: gain of 0.9%.
FBM Small Cap Index has lost 14.9% over the same period.
10/10/2018 13:30
3iii My comments:

1. Of the 4 portfolios, they are all VERY short term. 3 were for about 1 year duration and 1 was held for 16 months.

2. Investing over the short term is likely to show very volatile results. A share price can go up 50% and down its equivalent one-third all within a 52 week period.
10/10/2018 13:36
kcchongnz Each of my stock pick service lasted for a year plus and the performance was measured upon the conclusion of the service.

If those stocks were hold longer, their return would not be as good as this few months, the small cap stocks were battered.

However, value investing doesn't mean one must hold the stocks for many years, as I have posted in my articles. My value investing strategy doesn't suggest buying stocks and hold for long period as most businesses are cyclic in nature. Reviews were carried out quarterly if macro or micro have changed. Furthermore, if better stocks are discovered, we may have to sell some old ones to get cash to buy new ones.
10/10/2018 14:38

Return of Value Investing: My established records Part 1 kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Thu, 4 Oct 2018, 09:01 PM


In a recent gibberish article, someone posted this comment with the purpose of mocking value investors again,

[Posted by qqq3 > Sep 30, 2018 01:34 PM | Report Abuse

where is that NZ guy?
long term investments work for him or not?

why no defender of value investing and buy and hold?]

 

Before I proceed, I would like to reiterate that value investing is not about buying a cheap stock, or a good stock, and hold it for long time. Value investing is about buying a stock at a price below its intrinsic value (IV), and with a margin of safety, and sell it when price goes above its IV. IV changes as business conditions, competitions and macro-economy changes. Also, monetary resources of individual investors are limited and existing shares, whether they are great or still undervalued, may have to be sold in order to purchase better company with higher MOS for better expected return.

 

In my recent article, “Does “value investing” work and what are the evidences?” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/174215.jsp

Warren Buffet showed the track records of nine disciples of the father of value investors, Benjamin Graham. They all generated annual compounded returns (CAGR) of between 18% and 29% over track records lasting between 14 to 30 years. Those CAGRs were from 2 times to more than 4 times the CAGR of the broad markets over the same period.

In Malaysia, most of us know that Mr. Fong Si Ling, popularly known as Coldeye, is a successful value investor who has built up a substantial wealth through value investing in Bursa over the years.

In my subsequent article, “Does “value investing” work in Bursa?” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/175060.jsp

I have also shown some big cap stocks chosen randomly returned an average of 379% over the last 10 years, or a CAGR of 16.5%, more than 3 times the 5.2% of the broad index during the same period.

The Busy Weekly also compiled a list of 20 “bull” stocks which returned over 1000% over the 10 years, or a CAGR of more than 30%. They were mostly small and mid-cap stocks listed in Bursa.

Here, I will provide my own experience in value investing in Bursa with established records which are verifiable from i3investors. Note that articles on these records had been published a number of times in i3investors. This repetition serves to answer the question posed by the commenter above, and bring awareness to those who are new to this forum, that value investing works, not only in overseas markets, but also right in our doorstep.

 

My stock picks sharing in i3investor

In this article, I would like to summarize all the portfolios of stocks which I shared in i3investor over the years and their returns after the portfolios were formed. With this, you can make your judgment if value investing works in Bursa.

In my article, “Investing in Bursa for 5 years: 5 年的等待in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/138098.jsp

I have shown that the portfolio of 10 stocks named “GE13 Watch” established in i3investor on 21st January 2013 returned 146%, more than seven times the return of the broad market of just 20% in the same period of about 5 years. All stocks in the portfolio made positive returns. There was not a single loser.

 

My second portfolio of 11 stocks named “2013 2H Stock Pick Challenge” established in i3investor on 1st August 2013 and as shown in the link below, “Search for The Holy Grail in Investing: The Magic Formula” returned 175% in about four years against the return of the broad market of just 10% during the same period.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/127825.jsp

The excess return of the portfolios of stocks was huge.

The stocks in the two portfolios were chosen following the principle of the Magic Formula of Joel Greenblatt; buying quality companies with high return of capital of the firm when they are selling cheap as valued at the enterprise level.

 

My third established portfolio in i3investor was done at the end of year 2015 for investing for year 2016. This was using a different value investing strategy; the high dividend yield investing strategy as documented in the link “Tips for Dividends Investing: A sure cash flow for investors” below,

 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/122285.jsp

This portfolio of 5 high dividend stocks has gained an average of 67.4% for the one-and-a-half-year period as on 5th April 2017, compared to the gain of the broad market of just 3.8% during the same period, again with huge excess return.

My last established record in i3investor was in the stock pick challenge for 2017. I did not do that well in this portfolio of stock, but it is still a positive return of 5% at the end of the year.

It is noted that the stocks chosen in the four portfolios above came with detail investment thesis, qualitative and quantitative analysis published in i3investor.

It is also noted that although the stocks in the portfolios above were assumed to be held over the investment period, it doesn’t mean I held them for the whole duration. As mentioned above, value investing is about buying, and selling of stocks basing on the prices and their intrinsic values, the change in macro and micro conditions, and not the least, the alternative opportunities available.

In general, my experience and outcome in value investing in Bursa shows,

“Heads I win big; tails I don’t lose much”

 

Conclusions

My experience with value investing in Bursa as shown in the established portfolios in i3investor above have shown that it consistently provided extra-ordinary return, in the short term, as well as the long term. More importantly, the risks involved were low. The principles, strategies and methodologies are plausible. They are simply logic. They follow established and proven successful process.

Despite of all the positive results of my experience, I still have to say that value investing, like any other style of investing, does not guarantee that it works in the short term, and it does not mean that it works all the time.

What about my “real” experience in my own, or asking my stock pick services participants putting hard cash investing in Bursa?

Next, I will provide results for my stock pick services to show if value investing works in Bursa. It works well and so far, works all the time in my personal investment.

Why do people continue to ridicule FVI despite all the evidences that it has worked, it is still working, and that it is continuing to work?

I can borrow what Seth Klarmen has said below,

I would also like to reflect what Thomas Gayner said,

"I’m always amazed that someone would say they weren’t a value investor – I wouldn’t admit it even if I wasn’t. It just seems silly to think about investing any other way." Thomas Gayner

If you are interested in my online investing course to learn the nitty gritty of value investing, or if you have no time but still wish to invest in Bursa safely, slowly but surely to build long-term wealth, you may also participate in my new stock pick service by contacting me at,

ckc14invest@gmail.com

 

KC Chong

 

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kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 12:31 AM | Report Abuse
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.
I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.

How do you look at Jaks and Sendai; these two stocks you have been asking people to sailang and margin.

Are they good quality stuff, and why?
05/10/2018 15:30
qqq3 Jaks and Sendai are the main investments of kyy in last 2 years....He is a businessman and risk taker...( he says so himself)...


stockmarket.....stockmarket rewards those who assume the business and market risks and later proven right....he says he is willing to take those business risks , including implementation risks and expect to be well reward later.....follow or not is your own decision, nothing to do with businessman KYY.

ps...presently I have Sendai...I like to ambush shares and this is a good time and price to ambush Sendai. Sendai operates in Middle East and with current oil price, Middle East is swimming in cash. This is party time in Middle East. Management got 70% of the shares, I only a little bit....I don't mind. Some more, the sale of lift boat will be reflected in next report and will show significant improvements in Balance Sheet as well as revenue and profits.
05/10/2018 16:32
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 04:22 PM | Report Abuse
Jaks and Sendai are the main investments of kyy in last 2 years....He is a businessman and risk taker...( he says so himself)...


When I discuss in i3investor, I talk about issues, not personality.

Why the hell you always pull out someone else name? To boast your image?

You said this,

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 12:31 AM | Report Abuse
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.
I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.


I asked you,

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 5, 2018 03:30 PM | Report Abuse X
How do you look at Jaks and Sendai; these two stocks you have been asking people to sailang and margin.
Are they good quality stuff, and why?


Can't you ever talk straight to the point?
05/10/2018 16:36
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 12:52 AM | Report Abuse
Good stuffs are never cheap, cheap stuffs are seldom good, unless it is in the middle of a severe bear market.
I think is a good motto to follow......At least then , there is a focus on getting stuffs of higher quality.

Tell us which are the "good stuffs" you have purchased? Sendai, Jaks, Vitrox, Elsoft? What else?

When did you purchase them, and at what prices?
05/10/2018 16:40
qqq3 me? I am trader, I buy any stuff....as long as I think I can money based solely on timing considerations........my answers very comprehensive one...........

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 01:02 AM | Report Abuse X

The above 2 posts presupposes we are talking about investments and holdings of at least 12 months or even longer.

The shorter the intended holding period, the more rubbishy stuffs we can put into the portfolio, I guess.

I may even consider putting some of your rubbishy recommendations if the intended holding period is short enough..............if the intended holding period is short enough, then it is all about timing considerations.
05/10/2018 16:43
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 04:43 PM | Report Abuse
me? I am trader, I buy any stuff....as long as I think I can money based solely on timing considerations........my answers very comprehensive one...........

You know what? So far I have been sparring with you. You condemned value investing, condemn TA, FA. But you never even once substantiate it.

I asked you questions, you have never directly answered anyone of them intelligently.

I have written many articles on value investing. You didn't even read them and start to condemn. I tell you what it is, and you just talk about what is totally different from what I wrote. I showed you evidences from every where,and even my own established and verifiable records in i3investor, I doubt you even read them. And you start to condemn again, and again, and talk rubbish.

You only think your BS, I mean bullshit can work. But you can't articulate even once how you BS works.

What can I say about you?

Shall I continue to waste time on you?

No lah, I was having fun too.
05/10/2018 16:57
qqq3 share market......in share market, analysts, research managers, fund managers also make money and lose money just like every body else.......and all of them well equipped with all the financial formulas and financial training.....and presumably all of them have a working knowledge of what B Graham and that Wallen Bufalo is all about.

FA and TA my foot....at the end of the day, what we have are research reports for retailers, like that OTB......and research reports for institutions which focuses on the bigger caps.

after all the ups and downs, bulls and bears......the general public is better served if they focus on business sense and management quality....and stick to better quality companies.....

other than that, if they are businessmen and risk takers...they do whatever they want with their own money.


Sifus comes in all shapes and sizes...There is one....OTB friend, one Donovan...giving report that Hibiscus Latest price target $ 5.50 ( timeline 2020)...the same Donovan who gave target price of $ 40 for Hengyuan when it was $ 15.......All such sifus have one thing in common, Sifut hole very big, skin even thicker. After the Hengyuan fiasco, if me don't know where to hide, but for Donovan is just another day in the office.


Stock market sifu or sifut, whatever they call themselves.....many of them have Jho Low DNA if they choose this profession.
05/10/2018 17:38
qqq3 and how about....

bull market, ignorance and arrogance can make lots of money
bear market, same characteristics lose a lot of money.
06/10/2018 09:53
Zhuge_Liang Make a lot of money in stock market is called Sifu.
Make peanut and making a lot noise to get attention is not a sifu, but a bullshit.
06/10/2018 10:11
BN_menang Talk 3 talk 4. Actually stock market is worse under PH true or not?
06/10/2018 11:22
stockraider Yes...PH performance for stockmkt not as good as BN....bcos PH more transparent mah....!!

If BN they hide & curi from u....if bad news out....habis lah....stockmkt mah.......!!

Conclusion; PH is more sustainable loh.....!!
06/10/2018 11:45
qqq3 kc...market open every day also can test your knowledge/ skill. No need to cari students......why u want to cari students? Its a liability only.

U can share share here , free.
I also got scores of articles, free one....no one appreciates, doesn't bother me.

Knowledge is not skill. Skill is developed after it becomes habit and character.

students no use one. Students can get the knowledge but not the skills until years later. In the mean time, students lose money, they blame you......its a liability more than any thing else.

u are not OTB. He is a remisier. He gets commission from every transaction...he is the one who takes away all the customers' yacht.

in any case....stock market...how much is skill, how much is luck , how much is habit and character.....who the hell knows? professors refer to random walk theory.


for me....its just for fun.
06/10/2018 15:33
qqq3 Softbank....during the dot com burst, Softbank shares drop by 90%....of course today very successful....

stock market....talk no use,,,dive in and enjoy.
06/10/2018 16:16
boonwei98 It is obvious that KC is process oriented and qqq is result oriented. Both are totally opposite. So there is really no point to keep arguing. Others should decide if you are process oriented then follow kc guidance and those that believe result is everything follow qqq.
06/10/2018 19:22
qqq3 Dr M: Quarreling with Najib kept my brain active

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEStm53lOWg

I support
06/10/2018 19:36
qqq3 boon

quoting guailo is not process

it is hanging a flag....

2 problems...

- KLSE is not Wall Street

- in Wall Street, very few retail picking stocks.


in the land B Graham and wallen Bufalo, retailers have given up stock picking.
06/10/2018 22:48
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 5, 2018 12:31 AM | Report Abuse
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.

ME: I HAVE A TOTAL OF 339 ARTICLES IN I3INVESTOR NOW. TELL ME WHICH POST I TEACH PEOPLE TO LOOK FOR LOW QUALITY STUFF?

I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.

ME: TELL ME WHY DO YOU CONSIDER SENDAI AND JAKS AS GOOD QUALITY STUFF?

true, what I say about you.


People like u...always only like to talk about valuations, valuation this valuation that, as if stock market can be so easily valued, people like you will only land up with low quality stuffs.

ME: WHICH STOCK OF MINE IS A "LOW QUALITY STUFF" AND WHY?

intrinsic value....margin of safety......lol.....The more you talk about intrinsic value and margin of safety....the more likely your portfolio is full of low quality stuffs ..........................

ME: TELL ME WHAT YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT INTRINSIC VALUE AND MARGIN OF SAFETY? HOW ARE THEY RELATED TO "LOW QUALITY STUFF"?
07/10/2018 22:07
qqq3 kc

all the value investors and their intrinsic values and margin of safety all die in 2018 already.....MMC, plenty of intrinsic value and margin of safety, most of the property stocks large discounts to NTA, steel stocks very low PE, ...I don't think u or anyone purposely choose low quality shares.....but the more u talk about intrinsic value and margin of safety, the more likely your whole portfolio full of low quality stuffs. Its called options, choices and focus.


the only people still active, still healthy are those investors in quality, in long term growth, with great business sense and great management quality such as Vitrox, Penta, the ATEs and the EMSs, Serba and Dialog in OG, qL in consumers...one year already.....the market is chasing quality as it should....it is the market working.


aiyoyo.....I talk about it for one year already......and the market trend follows my suggestion.......

now talk also no use, all retail value investors die already...for your students and potential students....a bigger test yet.....


""""trade wars like boiling a frog.....there was a time, the intense trade war between US-China would have freaked out the market....but like boiling a frog, the market seems to have adjusted to it.....but boiling a frog is still boiling a frog and the frog still dies at the end, whether the frog jumps or not........I just feel the whole world is like boiling a frog experience.....and no confidence in American politics.""""""
08/10/2018 18:09
qqq3 value investors have held on to MMC from $ 2.50 to $ 1.10....half the value gone already...Pity value investors.

value is not the best way to approach the stock market.
08/10/2018 20:54
qqq3 Analysts favorite Gamuda from $ 5.50 to $ 2.40..analysts favorite is also not the best way to approach the stock market.
08/10/2018 20:57
qqq3 P metal....I like P Metal......This is the best way to approach the stock market.
08/10/2018 21:00
qqq3 P Metal, Sendai, Serba...these are smart ways to approach stock market.
08/10/2018 21:02
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 09:02 PM | Report Abuse
P Metal, Sendai, Serba...these are smart ways to approach stock market.


P. Metal, Serba? Just because their share prices went up recently? Why? But did you see it coming a few months ago?

Sendai? Why also?

You called for sailang with margin finance a year ago at RM1.30+. How much is it now? Lost > 40% already, even haven't consider margin.

How?
08/10/2018 21:35
qqq3 Sendai is very good to me...I am sitting on 15% profits, not selling yet until I come back from holidays.

Pmetal and Serba.....any drop just buy la.....sure make money one if keep long enough.......

not talking about horse before cannon but talking about the future.......
08/10/2018 21:43
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 09:43 PM | Report Abuse
Sendai is very good to me...I am sitting on 15% profits, not selling yet until I come back from holidays.
Pmetal and Serba.....any drop just buy la.....sure make money one if keep long enough.......
not talking about horse before cannon but talking about the future.......

When you were actively promoting Sendai and Jaks a year ago when they were trading at RM1.30+ and RM1.50+, weren't you talking about the future then?
08/10/2018 21:58
qqq3 Sendai and Jaks so happens to be two of my most profitable counters for 2017/2018........
08/10/2018 22:08
qqq3 kc....can I add you are in the wrong coaching business.

Check out this story: Why Business Coaching Is Booming http://flip.it/waa5zT from Flipboard.


Business coaching is booming.....stock market coaching , leave it to those with Jho Low DNA........
08/10/2018 22:16
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 10:08 PM | Report Abuse
Sendai and Jaks so happens to be two of my most profitable counters for 2017/2018........


Now I know why. All following your sailang and margin lost their life saving in Jaks and Sendai, and you were the one making from them by asking them to sailang and margin at very high prices and you dumped to them?

Indeed smart fellow you are. Congrats.
08/10/2018 22:17
qqq3 I never did any thing dishonest....but also I cannot be expected to post I sold......
08/10/2018 22:19
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 10:19 PM | Report Abuse
I never did any thing dishonest....but also I cannot be expected to post I sold......


This was what you have done; asking everyone here to use margin finance to sailang Jaks and Sendai when they were trading at >RM1.50 and RM1.30 respectively. Those who followed your calls, which was made relentlessly for the last one year, and caused them to lose more than 80% with 50% margin.

Is this an act of great service to the public?
08/10/2018 22:28
qqq3 I sell also take risk one.....what if it goes up after I sell?

actually my own track record on selling not very good one.....majority of times, shares I sell go up one...


I am more accurate in buying than in selling........
08/10/2018 22:34
Sslee Dear all,
Hoping Mr. Koon realise now that qqq3 is taking advantage on him all this while on JAKS and SENDAI to make his million.
Thank you.
08/10/2018 22:51
qqq3 what is stock market if not dealing with uncertainties?


but neither I nor Kyy ever post with dishonesty.......
08/10/2018 22:56
qqq3 sslee....KYY knows full well I am a small time trader......


I am just a trader......
08/10/2018 22:57
qqq3 I am such a trader I can even make money from Lion Industry .....can u imagine that?
08/10/2018 23:08
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 11:08 PM | Report Abuse
I am such a trader I can even make money from Lion Industry .....can u imagine that?


So have you understood what you read in Nasim Taleb's book you always recite without knowing what it is about?
08/10/2018 23:17
qqq3 well....It so happens to be true I recently make some money in LionInd.......why cannot meh?
08/10/2018 23:30
qqq3 Taleb says he makes money from Black Swan events.....KLSE don't have that kind of sophistication and instruments...I can only make money by selling higher than my cost......
08/10/2018 23:35
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 11:35 PM | Report Abuse
Taleb says he makes money from Black Swan events.....KLSE don't have that kind of sophistication and instruments...I can only make money by selling higher than my cost......


Well, it looks like you really don't know what you read, but just reciting it everywhere without knowing what the meaning conveyed.
08/10/2018 23:42
qqq3 Fooled by Randomness is a great book....One of the best out there................

The main take away....only those with Jho Low DNA wants to be a stock market coach......
08/10/2018 23:46
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 8, 2018 10:57 PM | Report Abuse
sslee....KYY knows full well I am a small time trader......
I am just a trader......


So how to fulfill your ultimate financial goal of become a two hundred millionaire in 20 years time?
09/10/2018 07:36
Sslee Dear all,
I miss stockmanmy, at least he was ambitious, he worship super-investor, promote margin finance, Sialang, X factors and make clear that he intend to win big (100-300%) and to drive a Roll Royce, own yacht and be as rich as KYY. He is arrogant, pretend himself as super-investor, big shot, bet big, calling people opposing his views stupid, idiot, coward and etc but with no result to show except PLP and thus incurred everyone wrath, red flagged by many and now laying low in i3.

This qqq3 equally arrogant, unprincipled, covetous using the dirtiest of the dirty means trying to smear Sifu OTB, KCChong and PLP KYY but after being exposed as only invest in thousand rather than in million, his ball shrink, forced to eat humble pie and admit that he is just a small trader trying to cari makan and curi ayam from KYY and OTB stock recommendation. Unashamedly he still act as though he is a very successful unconventional investment guru talk big, talk 3, talk 4, talk bad on FA, TA, value investing, talking cock, bull-shitting and called himself result oriented and promote his idea on investment timing/trading and flexibility. By now everyone can see that qqq3 is nothing but a pure parasite, PLP king and sucking up to the boss at the same time sucking blood from the boss/hosts (deceit others even his own master) just to make a quick few cents profit by timing his buying and selling (Flexibility theory). What a great idea to make an easy living? Hope CP Teh does pick up some flexibility theory from qqq3 and profited from it too.

Thank you
09/10/2018 08:49
qqq3 ed by kcchongnz > Oct 9, 2018 07:36 AM | Report Abuse

So how to fulfill your ultimate financial goal of become a two hundred millionaire in 20 years time?
==========

at the rate my account is growing, shouldn't be a problem....
09/10/2018 08:52
soojinhou Sslee, stocknanny = qqq3
09/10/2018 09:00
qqq3 sslee...told u already...stock market not for you.....and AGMs are games people play, not some thing to take seriously.
09/10/2018 13:41
qqq3 kc...u did not read the book the properly if u missed the part that says the author specialise in buying put warrants....losing small amounts on a regular basis and making a killing when black swans strike........that is his 9 to 5 job......
09/10/2018 13:57
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 9, 2018 01:57 PM | Report Abuse
kc...u did not read the book the properly if u missed the part that says the author specialise in buying put warrants....losing small amounts on a regular basis and making a killing when black swans strike........that is his 9 to 5 job......


Nasim Taleb is a university professor teaching financial engineering, dynamic hedging and so on. He is not a trader of put warrants. He bought some put warrants for those stocks involving subprime bundled mortgages during those time, as a past time.

But he wrote about the above in his book, the "Black Swan", and not in the book "fooled by Randomness" which you recite frequently.

I was taking about you being fooled by your bloody own randomness making a few sens punting here and there in some stocks, purely by luck, and you thought you are bloody good. OMG!

This is the book "Fooled by randomness" we are talking about.
09/10/2018 15:08
qqq3 Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese–American essayist, scholar, statistician, and former trader and risk analyst, whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. Wikipedia...the book described his experience.........
09/10/2018 15:40
qqq3 kc

jokes aside.....your methodology don't work, have not for at least a year.......one day, it may work again.....but your students no such patience.....in mean time, high risk of rotten eggs in your face.....got your insurance already or not?
09/10/2018 15:55
qqq3 take my advice....business coach better.....business coach is having boom time. ...

stock market coach making a living teaching others to buy and sell stuffs is for those with Jho Low DNA....

and maybe an even better stock picker.....with better business sense from a business coach........
09/10/2018 16:03

Jaks: Is Santa Claus coming to town? kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Mon, 1 Oct 2018, 09:27 PM


I read a top article in i3investor just now, on “Why Jaks?”, in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/godsonkyy/176074.jsp

Again, it never fails to amaze me on the grossly misleading statements below.

First it says,

The 3 Chinese National Banks must have studied the power purchase agreement before they are prepared to finance Rm 7.76 billion for the project.

It is like the Chinese Banks is giving a profit guarantee to all the Jaks shareholders every year for 25 years when the JV sells electricity to the Vietnamese Government.”

 

Wow, some profit guarantee from banks for 25 years! That was fantastic, incredible, unimaginable. What a great “Santa Claus” deal was that!

I have been in the construction industry for many years in the contracting environment. We have utility privatization project too such as that of the water supply project in Johore. We too got financing arrangement with a large bank here, Maybank, which lent us millions Ringgit for the project. But never in our mind that our profit was guaranteed by Maybank, just because it lent us money. We had to work our ass out to ensure the project was carried out successfully, and rewarded with the recurring income once the water project was completed. Maybank would be happy to get interest payment from their lending as well as eventually recouping their capital. That was the only thing Maybank was concerned about.

The bank lends out money for project financing. What do they concern about lending out this money? To guarantee profit for the shareholders of the lender?

Of course not! Their concern is to get interest payments from the project operators, and make sure that the lending came with collateral, or the projected cash flows from the project is adequate for the payment of interest and the repayment of their capital eventually. They would make sure that their interest is paid first before shareholders getting any dividend. Where got guarantee your profit?

Where on earth got such bankers who are so stupid to guarantee your profit, and for every year and for 25 years? Santa Claus ah?

 

The next misleading statement was,

During the construction, the Chinese JV partners pay Rm 454 million to Jaks and this sum of money is to be used as capital for owning 30% of the Joint venture. Moreover, the Chinese would undertake the construction and Jaks is not even required to lay a brick.

I wish to point out that Jaks will own 30% of the Joint Venture free of charge.”

The comment below makes sense,

[Posted by sense maker > Sep 30, 2018 02:23 PM | Report Abuse https://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

Jaks need to do nothing but will take away 30% stake in the power plant and its recurring profits for 25 years. Sounds too good to b true.]

No need to come out with any money and no need to do anything and eventually own 30% stake in a 1200 MW power plant with huge recurring cash flows. It is a big fat frog jumping around. All costs are paid and absorbed by the generous Chinese.

Many of my friends doing business in China told me that negotiating with the Chinese in business is very tough. They would squeeze you dry, especially when they are in upper hand in any agreement.

 

Lastly this statement,

I think it is a very good share to buy bearing in mind that its NTA is about Rm 2.20 per share without any valuation of the 30% of the 1,200 Mw power plant.”

Just wondering why would a big major shareholder so stupid and sold down 72 million shares at cheap sale below RM1.00, when his cost is above RM1.50, for a loss of more than RM36m?

How on earth he gets the NTA of Jaks is RM2.20? What is his “NTA”?

How is that the above valuation even did not consider of the value in the power plant when there is an item on “Investment in JV” in the balance sheet of Jaks?

Is NTA of Jaks relevant in the investment thesis of Jaks? Is the “Golden Rule” of increasing profit during the construction stage where money is placed from the right pocket to the left pocket, relevant?

 

Actually, to me, the most important information for investing in Jaks is the future cash flows attributed to Jaks in the Vietnam power plant project when it is in operation, and how much is translated to the cash flows per share in the future, after taking into all the future dilutions of shares of Jaks.

What are the estimated future annual free cash flows for Jaks after the completion of the power plant, and discount them back to the present? From this, then we can make an assessment if Jaks is worth investing. There must be adequate margin of safety (MOS) in view that there are substantial debt holding claiming this future cash flows too.

If that future cash flows are large and with adequate MOS, of course Jaks is worth investing. But be aware of the risks involved too as described here,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/123266.jsp

The management should be able to shed some light and be transparent about it.

Without that information, we may be able to try to estimate the future cash flows based on information such as project cost, project IRR, capital structure etc. But that could only be a rough estimation.

Otherwise, buying Jaks is only a speculative endeavour. Of course it doesn’t mean speculating in the stock market can’t make money. But it doesn’t mean one won’t lose money too. We have seen people losing huge amount of money in Jaks in the last few months, haven’t we?

No, I am not saying Jaks is not a good candidate as a speculation. I also did not say it is not a good investment.

 

 

 

Labels: JAKS
  6 people like this.
 
DK66 Why people just walk away from "too good to believe" ? Why not try to find out whether it is believable or unbelievable ?
01/10/2018 23:31
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 1, 2018 10:43 PM | Report Abuse

that is actually quite typical of people who got no balls to commit but interested in showing off or kicking up a fuss.


I still remember vividly 7 months ago someone thought his balls were big and pretty ind telling everyone everyday to sailang and margin on Jaks when it was selling between RM1.50 to RM1.85.

It turns out after exposing his balls and showed that his balls are actually twisted and ugly when Jaks fell to 83 sen 6 months latter.

Yet he still think his balls are big and pretty now, everyday talking about nonsense.
02/10/2018 07:37
value88 I agreed with KC that it is naïve to believe Chinese bank will give guarantee for the profit of the power plant. It is like saying when Malaysian bank gives out housing loan to you, the bank guarantee our property investment will profit us. No, the bank just make sure u can pay them back before they approve your housing loan.
02/10/2018 09:20
qqq3 kc

You can redeem your self by committing yourself and your formulas to a couple to stocks....lol...if you dare.

otherwise they say your formulas only good for armchair critics but no balls to commit.
02/10/2018 10:11
qqq3 and as for Jaks...........

this is what fellow value investor Affin Hwang says....

Maintain BUY Call with a Lower TP of RM1.75
We are maintaining our BUY call, while lowering our TP to RM1.75, on the back of EPS estimate cuts of 9.4-12.8% over 2018-20E, as we factor in higher property losses from the property delay and the higher share base. We still believe that the stock is undervalued, trading at 6.6x 2019E EPS.
Source: Affin Hwang Research - 20 Sept 2018
02/10/2018 10:16
qqq3 kc

KYY is a businessman and risk taker ( he says so himself). He is not going to write like an analyst, not going to cross every t and not going to dot every i. Why you have chosen to approach kyy writings with a magnifying glass? ...and then..... at the end concluded he (kc) got no conclusion..... lol

if your intention is to talk about extended shares.....then chose an extended share and talk about it....Jaks is not an over extended share.
02/10/2018 10:36
Tryingtogetrich hahaha.....this reminds me of hengyuan....a lot of predictions and assumptions, at the end go holland also
02/10/2018 11:27
qqq3 kc....how to be value investor when stock market not interested in IPP but interested in bankrupt and badly managed Oil and Gas counters?



another value investor dilemma......
02/10/2018 11:50
Jonathan Keung nobody knows the hiccups Jaks encounter at the Vietnam plant. doing business is really tough especially in a country where language and business is totally new and alien
02/10/2018 12:24
qqq3 Posted by Jonathan Keung > Oct 2, 2018 12:24 PM | Report Abuse

nobody knows the hiccups Jaks encounter at the Vietnam plant. doing business is really tough especially in a country where language and business is totally new and alien
=======================

good comment......that is why we have stock market and stock market rewards those who assume the business risk and proven right later.
02/10/2018 12:27
Sslee Dear qqq3,
I refer to your comments:
KYY is a businessman and risk taker ( he says so himself). He is not going to write like an analyst, not going to cross every t and not going to dot every i. Why you have chosen to approach kyy writings with a magnifying glass?

I think DK66 had answered your question by correcting 3 factual incorrect information contained in i3investor top article “Why Jaks?”

As of the writer opinion:
“It is like the Chinese Banks is giving a profit guarantee to all the Jaks shareholders every year for 25 years when the JV sells electricity to the Vietnamese Government.”
I would think the writer is stretching his imagination too wide without reasonable facts or logical deduction.

It is my hope that the writer can double check his fact or ask someone to check and correct the incorrect facts for him before he published the article

Thank you
02/10/2018 13:00
Livermore is big trap wolf
02/10/2018 13:20
Livermore contra can...hold it will make capital in risk
02/10/2018 13:21
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 10:16 AM | Report Abuse
and as for Jaks...........
this is what fellow value investor Affin Hwang says....
Maintain BUY Call with a Lower TP of RM1.75
We are maintaining our BUY call, while lowering our TP to RM1.75, on the back of EPS estimate cuts of 9.4-12.8% over 2018-20E, as we factor in higher property losses from the property delay and the higher share base. We still believe that the stock is undervalued, trading at 6.6x 2019E EPS.
Source: Affin Hwang Research - 20 Sept 2018

So you are a big fan of investment bankers, only wen they write something good about a stock you promote?

Tell you what. This analysis of Affin hwang is nonsense. The investment thesis on Jaks is it future cash flows from Vietnam power plant, discounted to the present value. And its value per share for Jaks.

EPS is a stupid reason. 6.6 times PE? That is a hopeless analysis from an investment bank.

I thought you don't believe in low PE? So now circumstance suits you and you worship PE?
02/10/2018 15:09
idunwork Articles with comments shut down are suspicious.
02/10/2018 15:13
qqq3 yes, I am a big fan of investment bankers when they promote stuffs I like....not when they behave like 1 MDB bankers.

and,


The NTA of Jaks at 30 June 2018 is $ 1.47....The IPP of Jaks is expected to add $1.00 NPV to Jaks....based on very conservative estimates.


Actually KYY got great intuition to say NTA of Jaks is $ 2.50....
02/10/2018 15:40
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 03:40 PM | Report Abuse
yes, I am a big fan of investment bankers when they promote stuffs I like....not when they behave like 1 MDB bankers.
and,
The NTA of Jaks at 30 June 2018 is $ 1.47....The IPP of Jaks is expected to add $1.00 NPV to Jaks....based on very conservative estimates.
Actually KYY got great intuition to say NTA of Jaks is $ 2.50....


Let me correct you a few more misinformation you spread.

1) The NTA of Jaks is not RM1.47. Its NAB is RM1.47.

2) (1) above already included the assets of the power plant in Vietnam as explained by DK66, unless you can tell me how the hell you get "NPV" of another RM1.00, some more "based on conservative estimate".

3) "NPV" of the power plant is not that relevant as its present value, as initial investment is a sunk cost not relevant to new shareholders.

4) You don't seem to be able to differentiate between NPV, and PV.

5) Great intuition to say Jaks NTA is $2.50? Why sell at less than RM1.00 and incurr huge losses? You call that "Intuition"?
02/10/2018 16:12
qqq3 Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Sep 25, 2018 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

Reference is made to the subject matter and the announcement made by the Company on 30 July 2018.

The Company's subsidiary, JAKS Island Circle Sdn Bhd's ("JIC") application for interim injunction was heard today, 1 August 2018, in the Federal Court. The Federal Court granted JIC's applications for interim injunction to restrain Star from receiving and the financial institutions from paying on the Bank Guarantees pending the hearing and disposal of JIC's motions for leave to appeal to the Federal Court, which has been fixed on the 26 September 2018.

This announcement is dated 1 August 2018.

=========================

it is not without reason I post the above.

well....I sold my Jaks on 25 June .......now looking to buy back......one more round.....this Jaks very kind to me......
02/10/2018 16:34
qqq3 I post the above Sep 25, 2018 10:51 AM

I sold my Jaks afternoon session Sept 25.....see....I very generous fellow.
02/10/2018 16:37
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 10:11 AM | Report Abuse
kc
You can redeem your self by committing yourself and your formulas to a couple to stocks....lol...if you dare.
otherwise they say your formulas only good for armchair critics but no balls to commit.

Redeem myself? From what? I have never asked people to sailang and use margin finance for Jaks and as a result causing them to lose their pants, have I?

Formulas? What formulas? Can share ah?

No Balls to commit? You have forgotten that you showed your ugly balls and caused many lost their pants? You better redeem yourself by, I don't know what you can or able to do to redeem yourself.
02/10/2018 16:48
kcchongnz Your knowledge about NPV, IRR and payback period on Jaks power plant is highly in doubt. Certainly there is no way you can compare with DK66. Everyone can see the latter, may be not the earlier.

But let me refute your knowledge of NPV, IRR and payback period, the essential financial evaluation of a project.

There is no projected cash flows given by the JV, although they must have their estimates. Neither DK66 knows that, and I don't think he claims he knows it. Nobody bothers to give you those cash flows, but an indicative IRR. It is from the given IRR, the concession period and the estimated project costs we can roughly estimate the future cash flows of the project.

Hence point no. 1, I agree with DK66 that the IRR of 12% given is the project IRR, and not what as asserted by your previous comment below,

"The IRR of 12% is to equity, not to project, and no this is a statement, not a guess"

From what you are basing on to make such a statement?

I think when IRR is mentioned for a project, it is normally project IRR, as a project viability in financial appraisal normally is independent of the capital structure to be used.

Project IRR of 12%, "therefore Equity IRR is 30%"? How do you connect the two statements?

High equity IRR of more than 30% is not impossible, and I think in Jaks's case, it could very well be. But you must understand the concept of IRR, that all cash flows are reinvested at that rate of return. How to get a return of 30+% from the future cash flows?

Hence equity IRR may not be relevant, what is relevant is the future cash flows for Jaks, what are their magnitude and what is the present value of those future cash flows, and what is it translated to per share of diluted number of shares of Jaks.

An IRR doesn't mean the payback period is 8 years as in your statement below. It is not as straightforward is 1/12%. It is something to do how many years those cash outs are even out from cash ins.

That is why I said you may sound loud, but I doubt you are good as DK66.



Posted by valuelurker > Oct 1, 2018 10:48 PM | Report Abuse

You everyday harp on the same thing people will say you're a nag old man kcchong

You believe DK66 and say he's knowledgeable, so believing those facts, and inputting those numbers into your spreadsheet, that should give you the NPV - 'IRR 12% is to Project, therefore Equity is 30%++'

Instead you revert back to your 'common sense' and disregard the model, the theory, the maths, the thought process...

Youre like the scientist who has a hypothesis, runs the experiment, and the results do not conform to his hypothesis, then proceeds to disregard the test results and sticks to his hypothesis because thats what his 'gut' tells him - yeah way to go scientific advancement lol. Next time when you cannot prove or disprove something, dont go and tell the world you agree/disagree with someone - youre just like another one of those who are going to mislead people

Old man koon has access to management, he's substantial shareholder - at the start he was touting the massive 'construction profits', wanting to con the masses with the 'massive construction profits' and then it first proposed that the profits are not real, he now pivots to 'the 30% share in he IPP is free' - in that whole time, he has never mentioned anything about the yearly cashflows over the period of the 25 years of the IPP - oh he knows, and he knows its nothing to shout about - IRR 12% equals payback in 8 years, only desperate to change their fortunes JAKS would accept such lousy returns for an overseas venture.

But just like your 'too good to be true' common sense, all of this is still just conjecture and guesses

None of it is irrefutable, absolute truth
02/10/2018 18:38
qqq3 kc chong.....balls to commit means balls to stake your reputation on some stocks....not just go criticise KYY stocks over 2 years already........

and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....

[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..

[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.


I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......
02/10/2018 18:50
qqq3 I teaching my analyst son yesterday....

the dichotomy of stock market.....

stock market is stock market....mostly unrelated to reality. Oil price breaks records, every bankrupt and badly managed OG counter also heavily bought...you think these bankrupt and badly managed OG companies will do well meh?


stock market......mostly what is good short term is bad long term and opposite is true.

and analysts are mostly playing Games People play.

every thing about stock market is about Games people Play.....just a game...Games theory is therefore a better tool than all the Kc Chong formulas and tools.
02/10/2018 19:18
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 06:50 PM | Report Abuse
kc chong.....balls to commit means balls to stake your reputation on some stocks....not just go criticise KYY stocks over 2 years already........

ME: DON'T HAVE TO PLP. I DON'T CRITICIZE ANYONE ON PURPOSE, BUT TO SHARE MY OPINION ON SOME GROSSLY MISLEADING STATEMENTS. JAKS IS A PUBLIC LISTED COMPANY. IT DOESN'T SPECIFICALLY BELONG TO ANYONE.

and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....
[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..
[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.

ME: DON'T HAVE TO PUBLISH PERSONAL EMAIL LAH! WHO CARES? WHAT IS YOUR MOTIVATION? THAT YOU GOT SOMEONE FAMOUS ADMIRING YOU?

I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......

ME: I HAVE SEEN AND READ ENOUGH OF THIS "GENEROUS" GESTURES. ANYONE WHO HAS TAKEN IT ALL END UP IN DEEP SHIT IN THEIR FINANCIAL WELL-BEING. I HAVE NEVER MET A SAINT IN I3INVESTOR, BUT PLENTY OF DEVILS.

TO ME IT IS MORE LIKE,

NOTE: I DELETED MY COMMENT HERE AS I REALIZE I AM JUST SPARRING WITH THIS FELLOW, AND NOT OTHERS.
02/10/2018 19:23
Icon8888 never teach your son it is good to PLP

it is not
03/10/2018 10:09
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 07:18 PM | Report Abuse
I teaching my analyst son yesterday....
the dichotomy of stock market.....
stock market is stock market....mostly unrelated to reality. Oil price breaks records, every bankrupt and badly managed OG counter also heavily bought...you think these bankrupt and badly managed OG companies will do well meh?
stock market......mostly what is good short term is bad long term and opposite is true.
and analysts are mostly playing Games People play.
every thing about stock market is about Games people Play.....just a game...Games theory is therefore a better tool than all the Kc Chong formulas and tools.


I don't know your analyst son listen to you or not. My guess is the best is he treats what you say as wind by the ears.

If he ever listen to you, then this is my best advice to you, and it is free.

Stay away from your son if you want him to to successful in life and his future financial well-being. Leave him alone.
03/10/2018 10:28
Icon8888 yes, leave him alone

Jho Low father taught his son how to be cunning when he was young

now see what happens to the young man ?
03/10/2018 10:41
qqq3 icon

all the analysts in town are still wet behind the ears....all very inexperienced one.

the experienced ones all went off to do some thing less demanding than working until midnight and sometimes work until morning.
03/10/2018 11:03
qqq3 icon

the analysts work
the Jho Lows party

I think every young analyst prefer to be partying than to be working.
03/10/2018 11:08
qqq3 reporting season they say....how u get your reports by 9.00 am next morning?
03/10/2018 11:09
MIDF No wonder got sacked. Lose 50% YTD where got good?
03/10/2018 11:09
Icon8888 just don't teach your son the bad things... let him learn by himself (just like you and me)
03/10/2018 11:10
MIDF Icon8888 post as analyst why deleted?
03/10/2018 11:12
KLCI King Very good article to read, newbies better read to see both sides story, rather than listen to one sided thing.
03/10/2018 11:16
qqq3 Posted by KLCI King > Oct 3, 2018 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

Very good article to read, newbies better read to see both sides story, rather than listen to one sided thing.
===============


did u notice this article got no conclusion one?

Posted by qqq3 > Oct 1, 2018 10:40 PM | Report Abuse X

This KC kick up a fuss and at the end concluded he got no conclusion..... lol
03/10/2018 11:22
KLCI King yes, qqq3, agreed what you said, it does not have any conclusion & not even an analysis, it is just another article pointing out the weak points on the other article.

I like to hear different stories to make better-informed decision.

Because of many have talked about Jaks, now I also try to see if the vietnam project can deliver good cash flow back for Jaks or not.

Hope it won't be like Ekovest, once Duke 2 completed, cash flow koyak.
03/10/2018 11:26
MIDF Jaks Vietnam project not yet start why assume everything to be fine?
Even WCE highway can delay.
03/10/2018 11:32
qqq3 kcchong....


you are no business man.....too bad.

but Andy is a Businessman.....you know what he will do?

Andy will pile on all the good news only after completion of the warrants issue. That is what good businessmen do.
03/10/2018 13:12
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 11:50 AM | Report Abuse
kc....how to be value investor when stock market not interested in IPP but interested in bankrupt and badly managed Oil and Gas counters?


Value investor must invest in IPP stocks? Tell me why?

How much you invested in Mudajaya 5 years ago when it was hot with the power plant project in India, and promoted every week in public forums such as i3investor at RM3.00+?

How much did you invest in Malakoff IPO at RM1.80 4 and a half years ago, and now less than half the IPO price?

Badly managed oil and gas companies cannot be invested by value investor?

I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.

Again, another free lesson for you; making money is not about investing in which sector, which stock, but what is its price versus value and the margin of safety.

I have been so kind to you for almost every statement you made, I taught you investing lesson.
03/10/2018 14:47
SALAM Bit by Bit and bip by bip, true colours are coming out...Otherwise no truth BUT Bull shit and Cock show..
03/10/2018 15:52
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 06:50 PM | Report Abuse
and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....

[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..

[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.

I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......


Santa Claus coming to town again?
You better watch out, you better not cry
You better not pout, I'm telling you why

If the share price continue to drop from now onward, there will be forced selling of big margin player son, very soon.
03/10/2018 16:07
qqq3 by kcchongnz > Oct 3, 2018 02:47 PM | Report Abuse



I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.

===========


so now you want to be known as junk bond king? as well as teacher to newbies?

I tell you what....for most people.....they will be in good hands as long as their money is in good businesses with business sense and good quality management........like qL, for example.......
03/10/2018 16:10
qqq3 kc

sendai? There are many other shares to worry about ....not Sendai.....Sendai operations are mainly in Middle East and Middle East is swimming in cash with current oil price.
03/10/2018 16:16
qqq3 70% of the shares held by owner Tan Sri.....

Tan Sri has to die before I die.
03/10/2018 16:18
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 3, 2018 04:10 PM | Report Abuse
I tell you what....for most people.....they will be in good hands as long as their money is in good businesses with business sense and good quality management........like qL, for example......


I agree with you 100% about the management of QL.

However, we are talking about Sendai.

How much do you know about the boss, besides having a Tan Sri title? How good is the management?

I don't know them but I can evaluate them, from what they have been saying in the past, what they did and what are the outcomes.

Over-promise but under-delivered.

That is the signature dish.

Go read the past annual report since listed. You don't have to believe in me.

What man, keep on harping on good management, but don't have the faintest idea how the management has been doing for the minority shareholders.

You are just keeping on exposing your ignorance.
03/10/2018 16:23
qqq3 kc

what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.

I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.
03/10/2018 16:25
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 3, 2018 04:25 PM | Report Abuse
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.
I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.

Mine low quality stuff? What do I own which is low quality? Please state here.

Jaks and Sendai high quality stuff?

I told you to look at Jaks annual report; what they have done in term of shareholder value enhancement? What quality is the management; what they say, and what they did, and the outcome?

Same as Jaks. Both the quality of their business and the management. The latter for Jaks is actually obvious to most investors.

I don't know if you are blind or what?
03/10/2018 16:56
kcchongnz Posted by qqq3 > Oct 3, 2018 04:10 PM | Report Abuse
by kcchongnz > Oct 3, 2018 02:47 PM | Report Abuse

I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.
===========
so now you want to be known as junk bond king? as well as teacher to newbies?

I tell you what....for most people.....they will be in good hands as long as their money is in good businesses with business sense and good quality management........like qL, for example.......


Distressed debts are junk bonds?


You see you are a really a hopeless "accountant".
03/10/2018 17:50
qqq3 kc

what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.

I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.

true, what I say about you.


People like u...always only like to talk about valuations, valuation this valuation that, as if stock market can be so easily valued, people like you will only land up with low quality stuffs.


and as for Jaks and Sendai.....people buy Jaks and sendai have their own evaluations and reasons. ...and if they make a lot of money, it is because they are willing to take the market and business risks associated with their purchase......why cannot meh?
03/10/2018 17:57
TakeProfits ItChing is pretty correct and right on track. Good business, good management and what management say comes to pass. Good on you kcchongz
05/10/2018 21:41

Does “value investing” work in Bursa? kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Sun, 23 Sep 2018, 01:30 PM


My first article on value investing recently, “What is Value Investing” in the link below attempts to dismiss the myth that most people have, the misconception that value investing is about buying stock with low price-to-earnings, or price-to-book value, etc.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/173926.jsp

Hence a comment as below is just naïve, ignorant and uninformed.

[Posted by qqq3 > Sep 14, 2018 02:15 AM | Report Abuse https://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

value investor? go and buy up all the dead shares la....a Lot of the dead shares have discounts of up to 70% from the "revaluations"/valuations of assets.]

It also dispelled the notion that value investing is about buying big companies’ stocks, companies listed as the component stocks of KLCI. Value investing is also not about holding it for decades without looking at it after buying.

Following it, I wrote an article to explain some “Key principles of Value Investing”, in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/174104.jsp

The key principles describing why value investing works are summarised as below,

1.      Price is not value

2.      Mr. Market is a crazy guy

3.      Every stock has an intrinsic value

4.      Only buy with a margin of safety

5.      Diversification is the only free lunch

The key principles of value investing are plausible. Value investing follows a process. It works most of the time and over a long period of time. However, it doesn’t mean it works all the time. At least, it works better than all the alternatives I can think of.

It is extremely hard to instil value investing to old dogs and “lazy controllers” like the ones below, and make them understand what value investing is and its simple concepts, despite after doing it repeatedly. If so, pig can fly.  

[Posted by qqq3 > Sep 14, 2018 11:01 PM | Report Abuse https://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

kc
allow me to expose your fraud....the margin of safety of a stock lies in its history and the charts....not in your maths formulas, not PE, not NTA.

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 14, 2018 06:00 PM | Report Abuse https://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif

kc....margin of safety should refer to what is worse case scenario.....

buy mutual fund la....most mutual funds in Malaysia are well managed and will not suddenly lose 50 sen on the dollar......]

Well, this is a democratic society, of free speech. Everybody is free to expressed himself, including making a fool of himself, repeatedly.

 

In the most recent article, “Does value investing work and what are the evidences” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/174215.jsp

I have shown the phenomenal track records of each of nine disciples of Benjamin Graham with annual compounded returns of between 18% and 29% lasting between 14 to 30 years, using various and different strategies of value investing.

In the above article, it also shows value investing has been shown to work in almost all established markets in the world, including that in Bursa in the past.

However, we have seen many arguments that, even some believe value investing works in US, they just plainly dispute that it works in Bursa, without any substantiations, and that our market is different.

One persistent argument against value investing in Malaysia is that there is no stock in Bursa worth to hold long-term as no stock in Bursa can continue to go up in prices, not even for a couple of years.

Is that so, or is it just a wild allegation? Let us examine some facts.

The best way to prove or whether value investing works or not is to examine some academic research in Bursa. However, I could not find any credible research for Bursa to rely on, unlike those of the US and other matured overseas market. Here, we just have to rely on some records of some stocks held for 10 years, just for illustration purpose.

Just to reiterate that value investing is not about holding a stock long-term, but basing on price-value relationship to make buy or sell decision. The long holding period of these stocks is used just as an illustration.

 

Value investing in Bursa

I will provide some evidence that value investing works in Bursa for both the big cap stocks as well as the small and mid-cap stocks here.

Big cap stock

I found a comment in i3investor as below recently, and I will choose this portfolio randomly for illustration. The stocks and their returns after 10 years are shown in Table 1 in the Appendix.

[Posted by stockraider > Aug 21, 2018 10:26 PM | Report Abuse

Raider Having spare with 3iii for 10 yrs ....raider understand 3iii loh....!!

In fact raider can list out 3iii stocks loh;

1. Petdag

2. Nestle

3. Pbb

4. Dutch Lady

5. Heim

6. LPI

7. Aeoncr

8. Carlsberg]

This portfolio above consists of big-caps stocks which are followed closely by fund managers and institutional investors. The first three are component stocks of FBMKLSE. The stocks above meet the requirement of value investing in one form or another such as high dividend yield, stability of earnings and cash flows, high return on capitals, growth etc. It returned an average of 379% over the last 10 years as on 22nd August 2018. In compounded annual return (CAGR), it is a whopping 16.5%, more than 3 times the 5.2% of the broad index during the same period.

In comparison with the performance of the fund managers investing in Bursa for the last 10 years, only 6 funds out of about 100 returned more than a CAGR of 8%, with the maximum of 10.7%.

 

Small and medium cap stocks

I refer here an article in a Chinese Investing periodical, The Bust Weekly sometime in September 2017. 

In the above article, it mentions that for the last 10 years from the year 2007, just before the subprime housing crisis in the US, which also adversely affected the stock markets all over the world, and up till September 2017, 70% of the stocks in Bursa had positive returns.

My estimation shows that the broad KLCI increased by about 52% for the last 10 years from 1414 points to 1784 points as on 18th September 2017. Together with dividends, the compounded annual rate of return (CAGR) was about 5.5%.

The Busy Weekly also compiled a list of 20 “bull” stocks which returned over 1000% over the 10 years. They were mostly small and mid-cap stocks listed in Bursa. The best performer, MYEG, returned 3443%, and the last in the list, Poh Huat, 1147%. Those numbers are equivalent to a CAGR of 43% and 29% respectively, more than 10 times the return of fixed deposit a year, for each of the 10 years.

This shows that if one could identify some good companies with good prospects at that time using the principles of value investing, would be able to obtain fantastic extra-ordinary return leveraging on the power of compounding, and invest in them for long-term, even after the steep corrections during the subprime housing crisis which affected Bursa badly in 2008 and 2009.

This forgotten and least travelled tracks of the small and medium cap stocks is also where I like to dwell in as it is where I could find value in investing. 

 

Conclusions

Value investing has been shown to work in almost all matured as well as emerging markets in the past everywhere in the world. I have also just shown that it works in Bursa.

The principles of value investing are logical and plausible, control your emotion of fear and greed, be contrarian and right about it. It may not work all the time, and sometimes not in the short-term, but it will certainly work for most of the time, and in the long-term. 

In the next article, I will show you my own personal experience that value investing works for me very well investing in Bursa.

For those who wish to know more and learn about value investing, or wish to follow some stock picks in Bursa following the principle of value investing may contact me at,

ckc14invest@gmail.com

I do this as a great service by educating the “poor investors” on the right path of investing in the stock market so they avoid making heavy losses, which happened to most of them, and have higher chance of earning satisfactory return. I sincerely think so.