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Author: kcchongnz   |   Latest post: Thu, 13 Aug 2020, 7:43 PM

 

Don’t listen to stock tips kcchongnz

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In my last article, “What are my stock tips?” in the link below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2020-04-05-story-h1485815265-What_are_my_stock_tips_kcchongnz.jsp

I gave many reasons why I do not wish to give any stock tips, nor I like to show off how much money I have invested in whatever stocks. This is despite that I have at least 3 portfolios put up in i3investor since early 2013 with a mid-term investment horizon of 5 years for sharing of my investment philosophy and methodologies. These portfolios had done very well at their closures compared to the broad index then. I even have a recent portfolio set up in i3invesot since January 1, 2019 which is still running. Despite the rout in the stock market recently, this latest portfolio still makes about 5% as on today. Not too bad at all and I am quite satisfied with it.

The question now is “Should you listen to the stock tips given by your friends, relatives, investment bankers, uncle, aunties and “stock gods” in the internet space etc.?”

 

Don’t listen to stock tips

“Do not buy stocks purely based on tips, rumours and recommendations is one of the earliest lessons I learnt.”

That was highlighted by KC Chong in his interview with The Edge Magazine as published on 29, March 2020 in the link below,

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/first-person-never-too-late-be-investor

Many people speculated in the stock market based on rumours and stock tips and had lost money. Most of them had lost so much that they just refused to talk about the stock market anymore. Most of them know many of their friends and relatives who had lost a lot of money doing the same thing in the stock market. None of them know anyone who had become rich.

There is no big frog jumping everywhere in the stock market, or there ain’t no tooth fairy in the stock market who want to help you to get rich quick by giving stock tips to you, is there?

I have written numerous articles in i3investor discuss about this issue. The earliest one was this,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2014-01-24-story-h49652782-A_Christmas_reflection_of_the_pitfalls_in_investing_in_Bursa_in_2013_Repo.jsp

Let us look at some of the hot Bursa stocks tips which some people in i3 forums asked me about seven years ago in 2013. Following that, nine stocks were singled out as shown in Table 1 in the Appendix, and I carried out numerous detail analysis and came out with comprehensive reports on why those hot tip stocks should be avoided.

What is the outcome of those hot tips?

 

Return of stock tips

The portfolio of nine hot stock tips suffered a median loss of a whopping 88.2% over the seven years’ period as at today, while the broad market, with dividends, has gone up by about 16% during the same period, or a negative alpha of 72%. Eight out of the nine stocks suffered heavy losses. Two of the stocks, CSL and London Biscuits, have gone to London (Delisted). Two others lost more than 90%, and the minimum loss was 65%. The only positive return stock, Guan Chong, has done quite well at +145%, after adjusted for the one for one bonus issues.

How bad was that!

 

Jaks and Sendai

The other hot tips I have written numerous articles about and warned against following were Jaks Resources and Eversendai in 2016 when the share prices were pushed up from 40 sen to RM1.80 and RM1.40 respectively. I was motivated to write the articles more because when the stocks were promoted relentlessly, share margin finance was encouraged indiscriminately in the public forum. Just goggle and you will find many of my articles in i3investor about them.

The ultra-hot stock of Jaks dropped from the height of RM1.80, all the way down to 40 sen in just a couple of years. What if they had also followed the call for the use of margin finance? Eventually, at on today, investors of Jaks may be doing alright with its closing price at 93.5 sen, if they had also subscribed to its warrants.

The same cannot be said about Evensendai. At the close at 21.5 sen on April 13, 2020, those who followed this hot tip at its peak would have lost a whopping 85%, in just two years! How much for those who had followed the call for margin finance on top of their own money?

What other hot tips?

 

Freebies

Heard about the hot tips of companies giving free money, money drops from the sky? Here we had the great Vivocom and EAH. After giving free money in terms of numerous bonus issues, share splits, free warrants, their share dropped from adjusted high of 30+ sen and  14 sen to close at 1.5 sen and 1 sen respectively on 13 April 2020, for a humungous loss of 95% each!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2016-10-14-story-h1448817730-Are_freebies_goodies_kcchongnz.jsp

Does it mean that we should never pay attention to stock tips and analysis of some contributors in i3investor.Not really, but there are rare. Here is one.

 

Hot tip Dayang Enterprise

Dayang has been promoted relentlessly with tens of articles in i3investor, stating that if you don’t buy Dayang, and with margin, you have to examine your record to see why you are so poor. The great promotion started when it was selling at less than RM1.00. After that it reported a quarter of losses, and its share price tanked to below 60 sen. If an investor had paid attention to this tip, he whould have looked at its financial performance and would have found something different from what the public perceived. The losses were mainly due to impairment of plant and equipment. However, its core operation, although suffered accounting losses, had made very good cash flows, and even good free cash flows. In fact, Dayang has had positive free cash flows for all the years, even when the oil price was at its low of US20+ per barrel in 2015. Here is a link explaining that.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2019-05-12-story206052-The_cash_tale_of_two_contracting_companies_of_Sendai_and_Dayang_kcchongnz.jsp

With articles and articles of promotion, the share price of Dayang was chased up to RM3.00 per share in just a couple of months ago. Those who held Dayang were told to continue buying, and with margin, as its profit growth seems to have no limit, and they were told that they are stupid fools for selling this up-trending stock. One who have done some valuation would have sensed that the normalized earnings does not justify the rich valuation, and there is no margin of safety holding the stock at this price, and profit should have taken.

The rest is history.

 

Conclusion

“Do not buy stocks purely based on tips”. This is always my theme. History has shown the expected outcome, again and again. Do some analysis yourselves before investing in tips. It is a must. Check if the stock is of a good company. Then do some valuation if it is worthwhile to invest in. A good stock is not necessary a good investment if the price is not right. Treat buying a stock as investing in part of a business. Then you can avoid losing following hot tips, and occasional, may even profit from it.

But how can you know if the hot tip is worth following. There are resources in the internet including many good books on learning about the fundamentals of investing. Here is one,

This book is on sale in the major bookshops such as MPH and Popular. You may also contact me to purchase a copy if you wish at the following email address.

ckc15training2@gmail.com

This may end up as your best investment.

KC Chong

Appendix

Table 1: Return of Lemon as at 13th April 2020


 

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  3 people like this.
 
qqq33333333 America got Netflix, Amazon, Google and the likes which will insulate their Index...........

Malaysia got what?


going forward, u may find wall street green and we in malaysia keep seeing red............very very tough environment.


not only that.......Dow components enjoy tremendous amounts of monopoly profits............the people can be poorer due to the virus, monopoly profits can still increase............


value investing in the context of kc and his unstable stocks.........just not relevant .........repeat ability and predictability is very low with the small caps in Malaysia.........just trade and wag lah....and don't quote so much wallen the bufalo stuffs.
15/04/2020 12:54 AM
OTB Posted by Sslee > Apr 14, 2020 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

Haha
Can remember who wrote his 2 year hard work gone with the wind because he is trapped in chasing high Kpower and Scib?
---------------
qqq3 is a tin kosong in I3.
No record to show.

Luckily, Sslee caught him.
All his capital is lost in this 2020 crash.
qqq3 is a big liar in I3.
Talk without facts and figures.
I wish to see qqq3 die and disappear from I3 permanently.
I have no mercy for this big liar in I3.
15/04/2020 6:34 AM
OTB I learn all my FA knowledge from KCChongnz.
I still feel I learn the most FA knowledge from him.
KCChongnz had made me a better investor.
Without all this good FA knowledge, I believe my performance cannot be so good.
I still say a big thank you to my FA sifu KCChongnz.

I3 forum is to share knowledge, not a place to attack KCChongnz or other writers who had contributed a lot in posting their good write up to share with all readers here.

Any cat can catch a rat is a good cat.
How good you are is measured by the amount of money you had made from stock market.
Any method is a good method as long as you can win money in stock market.
No one should claim that his method is the best ... no such thing as the best method in share investment.
If your method is the best, you should be the billionaire.
Are you the billionaire ?

Thank you.
15/04/2020 6:58 AM
Sslee Haha Philip
Talk as if the whole Malaysia he is the only one qualified to talk about investment because he had the proven record and his qualitative analysis is the only right way to value a company and all those talking about quantitative analysis are imposters, out for no good, try to sell subscription or are so poor and need to write/publish book to earn a living.

Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are famous for buying up quality companies at the right price.

But Philip just because he had a lucky break in QL which turn his life around and now he behaves as if he is Warren Buffet or Charlie Munger.

If he is so good on qualitative why not write his QL thesis to Warren Buffeet and Charlie Munger and invite them to buy up QL with PE50 and see whether Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will be laughing out of their ass on his thesis on QL?

PS: Yes his profile photo is Charlie Munger so maybe his is the Charlie Munger of KK or The Oracle of KK. (Kuman di Seberang Lautan Tampak, Gajah di Pelupuk Mata Tidak Tampak)
15/04/2020 7:44 AM
Ayoyo There is no need to belittle a comrade who is on a different path from yours.. It is akin to one proclaiming that his religion is the ultimate savior and that everyone should follow him on this 'truth' in order to grow... Until he realizes that someone else who is on a different belief system is not only equally at peace, but is thriving too

And if one has the chops and calling for teaching, why not? Arsene Wenger, Jurgen Klopps, Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho were known to be average players in their prime... Look at how quality future generations each of them produced for their clubs
15/04/2020 8:35 AM
Sslee By the way
Can Philip answer the quantitative and qualitative question on QL?

Quantitative: Do Philip know what is PEG ratio of QL and with this ratio is QL deserved a PE of 50 and what is terminal value of QL?

Qualitative: Do Philip know what is the QL's total addressable market, how QL compare to CP Thailand, are QL expanding to SEA facing local competitors and local government restriction, do he know Malaysia is not a fishery nation and what will happen to QL boats if caught fishing is disputed Sea Area by China, Vietnam and Indonesia Navy Patrol Boats, what is QL plantation FFB yield and Mill OER and are QL Plantation and Mill RSOP certified and how QL perform against platation company benchmark, and what will happen when Land use right expired in Indonesia, do he know what is the break even sales for each Family Mart and how many stores are profitable and how many are burning money?
15/04/2020 8:38 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I also had a 7 year lucky break in yinson, 9 year lucky break in topglove, and even multi year good luck in public Bank which I sold luckily just in time.

As for saying that qualitative way is the only way? When have I ever said that? I consider OTB, felicity and Dr neo excellent individuals to learn from in shorter term investments. But definitely not sslee, kcchongz and a few others I have no respect for.

What I do have a problem with are individuals like sslee, choivo and kcchongz who go around talking bad about other individuals investments in QL just to defend and prove that their investments in INSAS is much better ( hah!).

However when holes are poked and investors complain, all they can see is the folly of their investment methods.

Kcchongz is a simple hypocrite. He talks about not listening to stock picks, and yet sells stock pick services with a time frame of 3 years ( which turned out badly in the 1st or even second year onwards, proven). And yet he(as well as sslee) says bad things about my long term investments in QL as great storytelling of how pe50 companies are bad investments if bought at the wrong price. Guess what collateral is feeling my margin buys during this period? Ql and topglove and yinson.

Well... His stock pick services into INSAS is also a bad investment over a 3 year period, despite being a super value play. So is his homeritz, padini, latitude, focus lumber etc etc over the "medium" term.

As for sslee, he is just an "unlucky" individual. Over the last 5 years, while I've been lucky enough to buy and hold stocks by looking at prospects instead of simply PE, my "overvalued" picks in QL, topglove and yinson continue to remain higher than 2019 prices, and allows me profits that can be turned into margin to buy my other discounted stocks at 10 year lows prices. Do you not realize the value in this?

Meanwhile sslee forays into magic number, magic formula, ultra value stocks in xinquan, hengyuan, INSAS have all proved to be disastrous. Luckily he doesn't know how to use margin properly, otherwise he would have found even more problems, as his insas dropped to 1/3 of his 2019 prices at 90 cents to 35 cents. Only an idiot would consider this a good thing over the LONG term.

So again I repeat, I have never once said my way is the only way and everyone else is foolish. I consider Dr neo, OTB and Felicity very good examples of different was ways to invest probably without "following" my way.

I only consider sslee and kcchongz investment methods to be wrong and useless in building wealth long term. Their results shows, and the way they defends their investments not by showing good results in their stock, but by criticizing other individuals stock picks ( which turned out pretty good I would say over this crisis ).

When commented, instead of showing good results, kcchongz started criticizing the qualities of pchem and QL instead of showing his own good results on his stock picks.

When commented, instead of showing good results, sslee starts criticizing the qualities of QL and serbadk instead of showing his own good results on his stock picks.
15/04/2020 8:39 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) The problem with sslee and kcchongz is that they have a simplistic model of how investment should work. They are still stuck at that ben graham stage of cigar butt investing. Warren buffet changed after he starting working with Charlie munger and changed his concept to buying wonderful companies... At fair (not cigar butt) prices.

I respect Felicity and otb and Dr neo because they concur my sentiments, one list continue learning and evolve their investment methods.

OTB uses both technical analysis and fundamental analysis to buy a stock.
I use both fundamental (Graham) and qualitative ( munger) mental model analysis to buy stocks.
Felicity tried to understand companies the best she can, and buys small amounts to do it.

Only poor individuals sslee and kcchongz still stick to blind concepts without improving their long term results.

If choivo can move past buying net nets valuation, why can't you?

Who is the one learning new things every day, and those stuck doing the same thing over and over?
15/04/2020 8:56 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Fyi, I have been a part of OTB subscriber group before, and learned a few things from him, so know what I am talking about. But I have never followed his picks, which do not suit my investing style. But I did learn a few new things from him, and others.

Sslee, have you ever attended kcchongz class or bought his stock pick? Or attended OTB class? Or talked to Felicity, Dr neo and other real investors?

Or did you think yourself super smart enough to simply buy stocks after reading a book and thought you will do well?

Did you buy hengyuan,dayang, carimin, Xinquan, INSAS etc by following stock tips from kyy and kcchongz without understanding their investment methods for yourself and monitoring over a longer period before buying what they buy?

If you did those things before than you have no right to comment further.

I recommend you shut up before doing further damage to UM graduate reputation of hard work and excellence.

I suggest you recall what UM motto is.
15/04/2020 9:07 AM
Sslee Dear Philip,
I do not have any investment methods but try to learn from all including from you as I start investment late but not too old to make a few mistakes on the way.

I had my past folly and so are you.

I only give respect to those show respect for other and accept different in opinions and agree to disagree but unfortunately you are not in this list.

I fought for the truth and voice out for all minority shareholder in INSAS AGM and had been telling the truth on the reason of not SBB but it was you refuse to accept the truth and come out with many of your imagination of cooking the book, money in bank is fake like Xinnguan and smearing the good name of BOD which I make effort to know them and befriend them whereas you keep saying all kind of negative things without making any effort to know them.

So please accumulate you so call winner QL and I will continues accumulate my misprice undervalue INSAS. I rest my case

Thank you
15/04/2020 9:11 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) So now we know the truth, you are just another gambler buying a stock based on 5+ year track record of misprice undervalue stock INSAS with a poor record and unhappy when someone criticizes your stock, as you have wished for the last few years for INSAS to track it's "accounting" value of rm2.6.

I would be unhappy too if someone criticizes my investment into topglove, QL, yinson for simply being high PE( therefore bad investment)

The difference is, I look at my track record and then I compare those results to those touted by those who criticize my picks.

CharlesT - mnrb
Stockraider - sapnrg/insas
Calvintan - netx
Sslee - INSAS
Kcchongz - latitude/flbhd
Choivo - petronm/rcecap

Then I realized, you guys have no idea how to pick stocks but see fit to criticize others?

So I keep quiet and let you criticize while calmly holding on and buying more into my yinson, ql, topglove at pe50+. And I just continue monitoring every quarter to see my long term stock results performance.

I realized then,

I just wasted good money buying kcchongnz books which I could have night a nice cup of coffee at Starbucks and read through all of Howard marks memo, Berkshire annual letters and had the same result.

I rest my case. You are a petty man, small minded and unable to explain why INSAS has been undervalued for over 5+ years.

Grow up.

>>>>>>>>


I fought for the truth and voice out for all minority shareholder in INSAS AGM and had been telling the truth on the reason of not SBB but it was you refuse to accept the truth and come out with many of your imagination of cooking the book, money in bank is fake like Xinnguan and smearing the good name of BOD which I make effort to know them and befriend them whereas you keep saying all kind of negative things without making any effort to know them.
15/04/2020 9:37 AM
Plantermen There are certain things we can avoid and refrain from buying Hot tips { stri tly for trading not for investing or holding} certain stocks for dividend yields { eg reits} others for capital gains or longterm compounding. Above just my personal view always used believed trade within your means
15/04/2020 9:41 AM
qqq33333333 OTB > Apr 15, 2020 6:34 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3 is a tin kosong in I3.
=========

if u think I am tin kosong, then no need to tell so many lies about me lah....no need to read my stuffs and no need to response lah............simple, easy, makes sense.
15/04/2020 11:28 AM
qqq33333333 otb...and as for me, I wake up in this lock down to take down the OTB cult.....gives me great pleasure.....and think about the stock market while doing it.
15/04/2020 11:32 AM
OTB I never read your posting for sure, all lies.
I will reply you and I will curse you as long as you attack me.

You are only good in bullshit and tell lies in I3.
Like Philip said, show me your record.
No record, qqq3 is a tin kosong.
15/04/2020 11:32 AM
i3lurker wah !!!!

qqq3
you got nothing to do ahhh!
Go back to your corner

otb
you just ignore him will do....
When you see a mad barking dog.
Just walk away.
15/04/2020 11:35 AM
OTB A person is rich, capable and knowledgeable in stock market will not attack any person in I3.
Only liar like qqq3 who is so poor and no knowledge about share investment will attack any famous writer in I3 to gain publicity.

qqq3 lost all his capital in 2020 crash, attacking me is to cover his lost money emotion.
When qqq3 attacked me, I know that qqq3 had lost big in stock market.
If he makes money in stock market, he will not attack me.
15/04/2020 11:37 AM
qqq33333333 d by i3lurker > Apr 15, 2020 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3
you got nothing to do ahhh!
========

for me, its productive time, not time wasted.

just charge to CSR lah..........
15/04/2020 11:46 AM
i3lurker otb
he himself admitted he is stuck already.
so his mood must be very poor, sad and angry
Possibly jealous of all who made money.
You are the rich man.
So its your job to forgive him.
Its quite simple

Posted by OTB > Apr 15, 2020 11:37 AM | Report Abuse
A person is rich, capable and knowledgeable in stock market will not attack any person in I3.
Only liar like qqq3 who is so poor and no knowledge about share investment will attack any famous writer in I3 to gain publicity.

qqq3 lost all his capital in 2020 crash, attacking me is to cover his lost money emotion.
When qqq3 attacked me, I know that qqq3 had lost big in stock market.
If he makes money in stock market, he will not attack me.
15/04/2020 11:46 AM
jason007 I agree with i3lurker , he just cheat to his subscriber. There is the most useless course he provide. Just theory.
15/04/2020 11:54 AM
ahbah Mkt now is high tide. Everything float UP including rocks, pebbles n stones !
15/04/2020 11:54 AM
Sslee Haha qqq3,
Mind telling us how you single handily take down your old master KYY?
15/04/2020 11:54 AM
i3lurker You must have capital to buy during such times.

Those who are stuck in shares like qqq3 must use margin now.
Use the stuck shares as collateral.

Will have current profits
and later stuck shares will recover back in value.

Posted by ahbah > Apr 15, 2020 11:54 AM | Report Abuse
Mkt now is high tide. Everything float UP including rocks, pebbles n stones !
15/04/2020 12:00 PM
i3lurker Just talk BIG only.
Most probably got some (teeny weeny mosquito bit) Dayang short sell orders from someone.
Big Funds like to spread out their short selling.

Posted by Sslee > Apr 15, 2020 11:54 AM | Report Abuse
Haha qqq3,
Mind telling us how you single handily take down your old master KYY?
15/04/2020 12:04 PM
Sslee Haha i3lurker,
qqq3 is actually short Dayang to below 90cents to take out old master KYY by his margin force sell. That sound logical
15/04/2020 12:10 PM
ahbah WB said we no know who swim naked during high tide.
15/04/2020 12:20 PM
Sslee Have anyone try swimming naked in the pool or sea before? I thought during our children time we swim naked in river.
15/04/2020 12:25 PM
qqq33333333 Posted by Sslee > Apr 15, 2020 11:54 AM | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Mind telling us how you single handily take down your old master KYY?
======

u talking nonsense.

its OTB that is cultist....that need to be taken down.
15/04/2020 2:03 PM
qqq33333333 me? I didn't do as well as I should .....otherwise, still as confident as ever.....
15/04/2020 2:04 PM
ahbah IMF: Malaysia's GDP to grow 9% in 2021, fastest among ASEAN-5 countries

Hidup Malaysia, 2021 !
15/04/2020 2:08 PM
FoolsGold Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 15, 2020 2:04 PM | Report Abuse

me? I didn't do as well as I should .....otherwise, still as confident as ever.....

maybe if u spend time to take down your barriers to do as well as u thought capable, rather than take down stuff that does not contribute to ypur success, it may make a difference...
15/04/2020 2:09 PM
ahbah How far shall we look to when we put our moni to work ?

This yr 2020 or next yr 2021 ?
15/04/2020 2:11 PM
Sslee Haha qqq3,
Please pardon my poor understanding of English I thought you has a hand on “KYY as a force in i3 and bursa is spend, no more..... now.”

Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 14, 2020 5:48 PM | Report Abuse
ss

KYY as a force in i3 and bursa is spend, no more.....

now, I just have to take down OTB..........and the OTB cult.
15/04/2020 2:21 PM
qqq33333333 kyy as a force in i3 and Bursa is spend force is just my opinion..... and now, I just have to take down the otb cult.... then no more cult and live happily ever after
15/04/2020 2:31 PM
Sslee haha qqq3,
The world are full of fanatic cults in the name of religion and politic. So how to ....... then no more cult and live happily ever after? Are you the second coming of Jesus Christ?
15/04/2020 2:41 PM
qqq33333333 Karim just got a $ 7 billion contract and SCIB just up another 20 sen............that is also happiness.
15/04/2020 2:49 PM
qqq33333333 ss...I can't influence every thing....Just do whatever within my influence lah..........................................
15/04/2020 2:51 PM
qqq33333333 The Trump cult just defunded WHO just when the world needs more scientists........that one too big for me........
15/04/2020 2:54 PM
Sslee I am still holding my cash and sell some of my stocks. By end Aug when companies report their q2 result then most likely many stocks will have more discount day sales.
15/04/2020 2:58 PM
qqq33333333 me? I think everyone also can be both right and wrong ( as markets and people keep changing their mind reacting to events)............the winner will be the one who is proactive and consistent .....

what is even more clear is Dow will be stronger than Malaysia.

Dow got Netflix, Google and Amazon who have large monopoly profits, Malaysian companies got what?

The whole world is one giant money printing machine and capitalists governments wants the money to find its way back to the stock market. You want to be bearish, u have to defeat them first.

Financial markets are bullish........Realists are bearish. I think both also can be right and to make money just got to be proactive, patient, and consistent.
15/04/2020 4:46 PM
ahbah KUALA LUMPUR: THE World Bank says Malaysia will be deeply affected by the Covid-19 shocks but there are a slew of factors that make it more resilient than many other countries.

Malaysia has, among others, a diversified economic structure and sound track record of macroeconomic management, the World Bank Malaysia lead economist Richard Record said.

It also has deep domestic capital markets, astute financial institutions, and past experience responding to crises, Record said.

“While the challenges ahead are unprecedented, because of these reasons the country is well placed to weather the storm,” he added.

Our Malaysia tahan lasak !

Hidup Malaysia !
15/04/2020 5:39 PM
Ricky Yeo Mr P, appreciate that you think im qualified to write a book. Highly honored.
15/04/2020 9:10 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I think you are qualified to write a children's book. Or fantasy maybe. Non-fiction is definitely not your forte.

Remember your comments on overpriced QL? And how the entire market dropped by 30% or more? What happened to QL prices then? Rock steady.

And you with your comments and thesis and ideas and strategies on QL? You would have been in hot soup during this period..

While high 50PE investments in ql(food), yinson( o&g) and topglov(manufacturing) remain far above last year prices, allowing collateral for margin to be used to purchase discount stocks at wonderful prices (pchem at 4.09. gkent at 46 cents, serbadk at 1.15).

You never who had been swimming naked until the tide runs out.
16/04/2020 8:31 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Another nice theory with by kcchongz but whose real world results totally different from his estimates.

His results on perstima? Share price drop by half from his estimates in 2017, uchitec? Scientex is the only exception, only because it ventured successfully into property development.
Padini? What is the total 3 year san nien concept earnings using dividends? For his favorite stocks?

>>>>>>>>

kcchongnz Good article to read for most people here. However, this statement here from you puzzles me,

""what is the sacrifice of shareholder value? Anytime a company takes on more outside debt to grow its revenues and earnings, the shareholder value is damaged. Anytime a company dilutes shares to buy companies or gives out dividend, it dilutes shareholder value. (trust me this happens every single time, a company that gives out high dividends usually end up in a bad position)""

Especially the last one.

1) Taking more outside debt sacrifice shareholder value? If return from borrowings great than the costs, it can't be right. This I believe is a typing error from you.

2) A company gives out high dividend usually end up in bad position? A bad position because share price drops? Are we talking about just capital gain, or dividend return is just unimportant and not part of the total return?

I have written a few articles on stocks on high dividends; Padini, Sciientex, Perstima, Uchitech in the links below,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/62058.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/128386.jsp

Uchitech in the first link has been a multi-bagger after considering all the dividends and bonus shares although its growth is not worth mentioned about.

In the second link, the total price appreciation is still 60% after 2 years, while the broad market is down by 1.6%, after taking into considerations of dividends.

I have written about many stocks of high dividend yield, and on the whole, they outperform the broad market by a wide margin too.

Most of these companies still grow, but they just need a small portion of its profit to grow because of their high return on capitals, and the rest return to shareholders, to do what they like.
19/04/2019 1:42 PM
16/04/2020 9:15 AM
Ricky Yeo Oh as if writing children's book sounds like a piece of cake than writing non-fiction Mr Phillip. How naive that can be. I take that as a compliment nonetheless.

Oh right, again as if an overvalued QL needs to drop in tandem when the market drops 30%. And if it doesn't, it shows that it isn't overvalued, what kind of logic is that?

Common, if you're so shiok competing with others (to beat the boredom of life), I'll pick Scientex, you go QL, starting today, 10 years to 16 Apr 2030, if we and i3 still alive, the highest CAGR wins, deal?

Look, I don't want to compare past performance of Scientex vs QL since 2012 (the time I start owning), even though Scientex beats QL in capital appreciation (even after a 20% fall in March, even at PE10 not 50, and despite how I hate to boast), because you're gonna come up with bunch of nonsense like oh i don't have record to prove I own it since 2012 lah kinda BS.

So lets do it for next 10 years, maybe you think it isn't fair for PE10 to go against PE50, although I think you won't, considering that you think high PE beats low PE all the time, so it is a fair deal right?

In case you're not so sure, I can pit Ferrari (RACE.NYSE) against QL, another stock that I own. RACE has PE closer to QL, PE47, does that make it more fair? Make your pick, Scientex or Ferrari.
16/04/2020 9:37 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Since I know you definitey wont be around, I'll pass kid. Your investment thesis has already been proven wrong.

"Oh right, again as if an overvalued QL needs to drop in tandem when the market drops 30%. And if it doesn't, it shows that it isn't overvalued, what kind of logic is that?"

Do you even understand what you are talking about? When the entire world is fleeing equity markets, a PE 50 company like QL which is "overvalued" doesn't drop? But it is still overvalued? So what does overvalue mean to you? Expensive? When entire world become cheap, then shouldn't QL drop as well? Well yes of course it did. It dropped from 8.60, to 6.90(24% drop) , but subsequently recovered back to 8.17. Why? Why would a pe50 recover? Because many investors including myself see value in an 11 billion company, academics like you.
17/04/2020 6:53 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) On second thought, this maybe a good exercise to train company kids.

Ok why don't you start a trackable portfolio this time on your user id. Let's teach you to be responsible for all your posts for once.

Why don't you start today( 10 years you say?):

Create a trackable portfolio( not watchlists), add in dividends and warrants, sell after announcement and reinvest back.

Scientex 7.85( your pe10 company) including dividends
QL resources 8.12 (PE 50 company) including dividends

As for NYSE, sure thing. But let's stick to NYSE companies.

RACE 154.30 ( your pe50 company)
STONECO 22.94 (PE 42 company)

these are also stocks that I hold so it should be fair, right?

In any case, I will leave it up to you to start a trackable portfolio, whether on your musingzebra blog, or in your i3 account.

But for once in your life, be responsible for your words.
17/04/2020 7:02 AM
Ricky Yeo Done - https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/138504.jsp

Are you tracking QL from your end or do you want me to add that into that portfolio?
17/04/2020 8:35 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) You should add it in yours, so can see the start date and end date and compare directly.
17/04/2020 9:31 AM
gohku Market already discounting q2 result as very bad.

You will be surprised bas result share rise
17/04/2020 12:32 PM


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