Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Fri, 3 Apr 2020, 11:03 AM


Indonesia External Trade - Exports Unexpectedly Down in January, Trade Deficit Widens

Author:   |    Publish date:

Exports declined by 3.7% YoY, below market expectation (Consensus: 1.2%; Dec: 1.3%) due to lower shipment of both non-oil & gas and oil & gas products

-MoM: fell to a five-month low of -7.3% (Dec: 3.8%) to USD13.4b.

-Non-oil & gas: down by -0.7% (Dec: 5.8%), due to a broad based contraction led by agriculture (-80.5%; Dec: 24.5%), mining (-15.0%; Nov: -1.9%), and manufacturing goods (-3.2%; Dec: 6.9%).

-Oil & gas-based products: fell by 34.4% (Dec: -31.9%) due to weak exports of mining (-45.1%; Dec: -40.3%).

Imports fell for seven straight months albeit at a slower pace of 4.8% YoY (Dec: -5.6%; consensus: -5.7%), weighed by weak imports of non-oil & gas products (-7.8%; Dec: -7.2%)

-By category, weaker imports were attributable to a decline in imports of raw materials (-7.3%; Dec: -7.3%) and capital goods (-5.3%; Dec: -8.5%). Meanwhile, the growth of consumer goods imports remained in a positive trend, further expanding to a 17-month high of 20.5% (Dec: 12.2%).

-MoM: imports fell by less at 1.6% (Dec: -5.4%) to USD14.3b.

● By destination, the performance of exports was associated with a broad-based moderation in key trading partner

-China: remained the top export destination though its growth moderated to 10% (Dec: 20.0%).

-US: eased to 7.1% (Dec: 12.7%), but the share of exports expanded to 12.1%, a 43-month record high.

-Japan: registered a sharp decline of -27.7% (Dec: -7.9%).

● Trade balance recorded a larger-than-expected deficit of USD0.9b (consensus: -USD0.3b; revised Dec: -USD61.7m).

Overall, total trade extended its fall for the fourteenth straight month at -4.3% (Dec: -2.4%).

Exports may recover on the back of government measures and easing trade tension (1.0% to 4.0%; 2019: -7.0%)

-The positive development surrounding the US-China phase one agreement may boost local exports, compounded with the government’s effort to contain current account deficit.

-However, the COVID-19 outbreak may exert some downside pressure on total trade though there is no confirmed case in Indonesia so far. Meanwhile, Jokowi's ambitious development plan under the 2020-2024 National MediumTerm Development Plan (RPJMN) may elevate import spending and raise the probability for the trade balance to remain in deficits.

Source: Kenanga Research - 18 Feb 2020

Share this

  Be the first to like this.

I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
Stock Screener using Technical and Fundamental criteria
MQ Affiliate
Join the MQ Affiliate Program today to earn rewards

240  465  424  792 

Top 10 Active Counters
 SAPNRG 0.095+0.005 
 HIBISCS 0.45+0.02 
 VELESTO 0.16-0.005 
 ARMADA 0.1650.00 
 ALAM 0.0750.00 
 PERDANA 0.17-0.005 
 KNM 0.145+0.005 
 DAYANG 1.34-0.01 
 SERBADK-WA 0.250.00 
 MINETEC 0.17+0.015 


1. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
2. MQ Affiliate – A smarter way to earn more rewards MQ Trader Affiliate Program
3. MQ Affiliate – How to become an effective affiliate MQ Trader Affiliate Program
4. MQ Affiliate – Upgrading to Affiliate Partner MQ Trader Affiliate Program


1. Dayang: Investment Banks buying aggressively - Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog
2. Oil & Gas - Trump bump likely to be temporary AmInvest Research Reports
3. Oil & Gas - Challenging Volatile Times Kenanga Research & Investment
4. Stocks on Radar - Genting Bhd (3182) AmInvest Research Reports
5. Daily Technical Highlights – (JAKS, CARIMIN) Kenanga Research & Investment
6. 送很多人免费套房的公司 – SPRNRG(5218) VITA Analysis
7. M+ Online Technical Focus - 3 April 2020 M+ Online Research Articles
8. PublicInvest Research Headlines - 3 Apr 2020 PublicInvest Research
Partners & Brokers