Highlights

Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Wed, 3 Jun 2020, 9:04 AM

 

Indonesia Retail Sales - Remains on a downtrend in February amid escalating COVID-19 outbreak

Author:   |    Publish date:


● Retail sales remained in a contraction for four straight months, declining by 0.8% YoY in February (Jan: -0.3%)

- Mainly attributable to a sharp fall of clothing (-40.4%; Jan: -27.5%) and cultural recreation (-16.8%; Jan: -3.2%).

● March’s retail sales estimate points towards deeper deterioration following the impact of worsening COVID-19 outbreak

- Real Sales Index (RSI) fell by 5.4% YoY, lowest since Oct 2011 weighed by a broad-based slowdown, led byapparel (-45.9%; Feb: -40.4%), other goods (-40.6%; Feb: 32.4%),and stationery & communication (-10.5%; Feb: -4.0%).

- This is in line with a deterioration in the consumer confidence index, which fell sharply by 8.6% YoY (Feb:-6.0%), lowest since Dec 2015 on the impact of the pandemic.

● Sluggish sales performance expected for the next 3 to 6 months amid a weak economic outlook

- 3-month Sales Expectation Index (SEI): fell sharply to 5.4% YoY (Jan: 0.4%).

- 6-month SEI: fell sharply by 6.6% YoY (Jan: 4.6%) signalling weak demand going forward.

● Inflationary pressure to rise in the next three months before it subsides

- 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI): rose 12.4% YoY (Jan: 7.3%), highest in 23 months in line with fasting month and Eidul-Fitr festive period where demand for food and clothing would rise.

- 6-month PEI: deflationary (-1.0%; Jan: 2.5%), on the expectation of slowing economic growth and post-festive season normalisation.

● Retail sales are expected to worsen further

- With the surge in COVID-19 positive cases and deaths, the government might impose a lockdown soon. This wouldhamper the retail sales, which already in the fourth month of a contraction. The government has resisted the need to impose a city lockdown, citing such measures would hurt the poor.

- On the monetary front, we expect BI to stay put in the next Board of Governor meeting (April 14th) despite its ample room to lean towards a rate cut by another 25-50bps, as the probability seemed to be reduced due to weak Rupiah.

Source: Kenanga Research - 9 Apr 2020

Share this

  Be the first to like this.
 


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
Earn MQ Points while trading with MQ Traders Group
MQ Affiliate
Earn side income from MQ Affiliate Program
 
 

421  545  485  702 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 HIBISCS 0.675-0.01 
 ARMADA 0.2550.00 
 VELESTO 0.1750.00 
 KNM 0.26-0.005 
 ICON 0.15+0.01 
 AIRASIA 0.83+0.005 
 AT 0.080.00 
 LAMBO 0.02-0.005 
 CAREPLS 1.22-0.33 
 ALAM 0.0950.00 

FEATURED POSTS

1. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
2. MQ Affiliate – A smarter way to earn more rewards MQ Trader Affiliate Program
3. MQ Affiliate – How to become an effective affiliate MQ Trader Affiliate Program
4. MQ Affiliate – Upgrading to Affiliate Partner MQ Trader Affiliate Program
Partners & Brokers