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Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Wed, 3 Jun 2020, 8:54 AM

 

Supermax Corporation - Two Bets for the Price of One

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We are excited with Supermax prospects over the next few quarters following a 3QFY20 post result briefing. Specifically, Supermax is expected to gain from higher margins from both its gloves manufacturing and distribution channels due to abnormal demand and acute supply tightness. We expect higher margins going forward due to higher product mix skewed towards OBM distribution which accounts for 95% compared to 70% pre Covid-19 which we believe had caught us as well as market by surprise. Hence, we raised our FY20E/FY21E net profit by 6%/16%, to account for higher margins. TP is raised from RM6.60 to RM7.60 based on unchanged 26x CY21E EPS. Reiterate OP.

Dual-stream incomes from manufacturing and distribution. Specifically, Supermax is expected to gain from higher margins from both its gloves manufacturing and distribution due to abnormal demand and acute supply tightness. We expect higher margins going forward due to higher product mix skewed towards OBM distribution which accounts for 95% compared to 70% pre Covid-19 which we believe had caught us as well as the market by surprise at a time when of tight supply due to aggressive stockpiling of critical medical supplies including gloves. Typically, manufacturing OEM pre-tax margin ranges between 12% to 15% compared to Own Brand Manufacturing (OBM) pre-tax margin of 15% to 20%. In terms of demand, Supermax is getting enquiries from foreign government agencies, non-government organisations, retail and restaurants chains. Amplifying the pent-up demand, buyers are paying between 30% to 50% deposits in advance to secure glove supply and timely delivery. The delivery lead time has now risen from 45 to 60 days pre Covid-19 to 10 to 12 months currently. Case in point is Supermax’s overseas distribution centres which are experiencing fast inventory depletion from usual 4 months to within 6 weeks. Supermax expects the heightened demand to continue for the next 1 to 1.5 years. All in, we are bullish on higher-than-expected margins since ASP has been moving upwards week-on-week. As demand pick up, containers are shipping at prices higher than previous months.

Outlook. Plant 12 consists of Block A and Block B, each consisting of 8 double former lines with 2.2b pieces each (total 4.4b pieces). As of now, for Block A, its remaining 3 lines started commissioning in end March 2020 on top of the 5 lines already in commercial production. For Block B, all 8 lines are expected to be fully commissioned by 2H 2020. Upon full commercial production by 2H 2020, installed capacity will rise 13.4% to 26.2b pieces per annum.

Raised FY20E/FY211E net profit by 6%/16% after raising our pre-tax margin from 13%/14% to 16%/18%.

Undemanding FY21E PER valuation of 18x compared to expected earnings growth of 68%. Correspondingly, our TP is raised form RM6.60 to RM7.60 based on unchanged 26x CY21 revised EPS of 25.4 sen (at slightly above +2.0SD above the 5-year historical forward mean). We like Supermax because: (i) the stock is trading at an undemanding 18x FY21E EPS compared to expected earnings growth of 68%, and (ii) of its OBM model, where it can extract higher margin from distributor prices, compared to the OEM model at lower factory prices. Reiterate Outperform. Key risk to our call is longer-than-expected commercial operations of new plants.

Source: Kenanga Research - 22 May 2020

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