Highlights

Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 9:20 AM

 

Malaysia Consumer Price Index - Deflation Steepened Slightly In August On A Higher Base In The Electricity Price Index

Author:   |    Publish date:


● Headline inflation fell at a slightly faster pace in August (-1.4% YoY; Jul: -1.3%), below expectation (consensus: -1.3%; KIBB estimate: -1.2%), partly due to a high base effect

- While economic activities have mostly resumed under the Recovery Movement Control Order, leading to an improved demand condition, prices remained capped by the elevated unemployment level and electricity bill discounts.

- MoM: eased to a four-month low (0.2%; Jul: 0.7%) on moderation in the rise of transport cost (0.4%; Jul: 4.9%).

- Core inflation: remained at its softest growth in 15 months (1.1%; Jul: 1.1%).

● Steeper YoY decline in electricity costs masked a softer drop in transport prices

- Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (-3.0%; Jul: -2.6%): registered a fresh record low due to a higher base and continued electricity bill discount.

- Transport (-9.9%; Jul: -10.3%): smallest drop in five months, tracking the improvement in global crude oil price (-25.1% YoY to USD45/bbl; Jul: -33.6% to USD43/bbl).

● Mixed inflation growth across advanced and developing economies, with the Eurozone falling into deflation

- Eurozone (-0.2%): first deflation in 4 years, weighed down by deflating energy prices and weak industrial goods prices.

- US (1.3%): third consecutive month of rising inflation, driven by the sharpest monthly gain of used car prices (5.4%) since 1969.

- China (2.4%): inflation moderated slightly, as rising food prices were tempered by a slowdown in the surging price of pork.

● 2020 CPI forecast maintained at -0.7% (YTD: -1.0%; 2019: 0.7%), with a gradual ease in deflation pencilled in for the remainder of the year as the pace of economic recovery gradually picks up

- Prices would gain support from the injection of additional stimulus measures (KITA PRIHATIN) worth RM10.0b targeted at bolstering domestic demand of the B40, M40, employees and SMEs. However, deflation will likely remain till year end amid surging unemployment, limited upside to crude oil price and lingering COVID-19 fears.

- Barring a nationwide 2nd wave of COVID-19 infections and reinstatement of lockdown measures, BNM is expected to keep the OPR unchanged at 1.75% for the rest of 2020 in line with relatively upbeat tone derived from its latest monetary policy statement.

Source: Kenanga Research - 24 Sept 2020

Share this

  Be the first to like this.
 


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
View candlestick stock charts with Technical indicators
MQ Affiliate
Be rewarded by being an MQ Affiliate
 
 

214  861  482  609 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 KGROUP-OR 0.005-0.005 
 MLAB 0.02-0.005 
 AT 0.080.00 
 LAMBO 0.030.00 
 IRIS 0.265-0.04 
 LUSTER 0.175-0.015 
 DGSB 0.20+0.015 
 DAYA 0.015+0.005 
 MAHSING 1.04-0.10 
 DSONIC-WA 0.23-0.03 

FEATURED POSTS

1. The Equity Market Index Benchmark in Malaysia CMS
2. Trading Scenarios of Derivatives Bursa Derivatives Education Series
3. Derivatives 101 Bursa Derivatives Education Series
4. Why Trade FKLI? Bursa Derivatives Education Series
5. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
PARTNERS & BROKERS