Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Fri, 22 Jan 2021, 10:30 AM


Thailand External Trade - Exports recovery halted in October, trade surplus narrowed

Author:   |    Publish date:

● Exports registered a deeper contraction in October (-6.7% YoY; consensus: -6.0%; Sep: -3.9%), putting the brakes on the recovery momentum observed since July.

● By product, the weaker performance was broadly based, led by shipments of agricultural and agro industrial goods

- Agricultural (-3.3%; Sep: 9.8%): slipped back into a contraction due to a substantial slowdown in shipments of fruits (23.7%; Sep: 91.3%), specifically durian and pineapples.

- Agro industrial (-14.1%; Sep: -3.5%): fastest decline in almost eight years, attributed to a sharper fall in sugar exports (-75.0%; Sep: -59.9%) and a high base effect.

● By destination, lower demand growth was observed across most countries, excluding the euro area and HK

- This was led by a negative turnaround in exports to CN (-6.0%; Sep: 6.9%) and a faster drop in demand from the ASEAN-5 (-27.1%; Sep: -17.8%).

● Imports worsened, recording a double-digit contraction (-14.3%; consensus: -13.4%; Sep: -9.1%)

- Steeper fall in imports of capital (-16.3%; Sep: -6.7%) and consumer goods (-21.2%; Sep: -11.7%) outweighed improvement in demand for raw materials & intermediates (-8.1%; Sep: -12.6%).

Trade surplus narrowed to a four-month low (USD2.0b; Sep: USD2.2b), as exports declined (-1.2%) faster than imports (-0.4%) on a MoM basis.

● 2020 export growth forecast range kept unchanged (-10.0% to -5.0%; YTD: -7.3%; 2019: -2.6%)

- Downside risks remain elevated, emanating mainly from the resurgence of COVID-19 cases overseas, Thai baht’s strength and intensified political turmoil which may weigh on sentiment.

- Policy-wise, despite a slightly dovish tone, we continue to expect the BoT to keep the policy rate unchanged (0.50%) at the final policy meeting in December, amid recent extension of fiscal measures, gradual reopening of Thailand’s border and limited policy space.

Source: Kenanga Research - 24 Nov 2020

Share this

  Be the first to like this.

I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
View candlestick stock charts with Technical indicators
MQ Affiliate
Be rewarded by being an MQ Affiliate

564  409  601  26 

Top 10 Active Counters
 TRIVE-OR 0.0050.00 
 QES 0.38+0.04 
 KSTAR 0.21-0.045 
 DNEX 0.26+0.005 
 BIOHLDG 0.30+0.04 
 DYNACIA 0.120.00 
 LAMBO 0.030.00 
 MCLEAN 0.325+0.095 
 AT 0.180.00 
 VSOLAR 0.040.00 


1. The Equity Market Index Benchmark in Malaysia CMS
2. Trading Scenarios of Derivatives Bursa Derivatives Education Series
3. Derivatives 101 Bursa Derivatives Education Series
4. Why Trade FKLI? Bursa Derivatives Education Series
5. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!


1. Supermax record profit must prevail - Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog
2. Biden Presidency Spells Good Times for Malaysian Gloves Trying to Make Sense Bursa Investments
3. Jaks Resources - Final Update :- Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant achieved FULL COD ! DK
4. A BEARISH outlook for Covid-19. GENERAL
5. BREAKING [Complete Economic Shutdown]: (Actual) Eurocham Letter to Members (dated 23 Jan 2021) following meeting with MITI on 22 Jan 2021 A blog to publish and share information
6. KLCI waves 42 - Two Possible KLCI Waves Outcome and 2 BEST Glove Waves (HARTA & TOPGLOVE) KLCI waves
7. [转贴] [Video:浅谈DAGANG NEXCHANGE BHD, DNEX, 4456] - James的股票投资James Share Investing James的股票投资James Share Investing
8. Think-tank: Total lockdown would bring Malaysia to brink of economic collapse save malaysia!