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Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Mon, 18 Jan 2021, 10:48 AM

 

Ringgit Outlook - To rise on continued USD weakness and potential extension of OPEC’s output cut

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Fundamental Overview

  • MYR surged further to its strongest level since 24th January, as the Parliament passed the 2021 Budget, reducing policy uncertainty and political risks. The MYR was also lifted by firmer oil price amid favourable COVID-19 vaccine developments.
  • MYR uptrend may sustain against a backdrop of continued dollar weakness and higher oil price, should the OPEC decide to extend the oil production cut at its meeting this week.

Technical Analysis

  •  According to EMA technical indicator, MYR is expected to weaken slightly by 0.25% to 4.079 as the USD attempts to reverse the pair trend.
  • All in all, our technical analysis indicates a short term bearish bias for MYR trend this week, probably due to potential profit-taking activities. From here, the bearish pattern could persist towards the (R2) 4.098 level if the (R1) 4.083 resistance level is breached. Inversely, a rally towards the (S1) 4.061 level will invalidate the MYR bearish pattern.

Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Nov 2020

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