Highlights

Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Wed, 27 Jan 2021, 11:05 AM

 

Malaysia External Trade - Exports expanded at a slower pace in October; trade surplus widened

Author:   |    Publish date:


● Exports grew 0.2% YoY in October, though at a lesser rate than September’s 13.6%, confounding house and market expectations (KIBB: -0.8%; consensus: -0.4%)

− MoM (2.4%; Sep: 12.4%): moderated after rebounded sharply last month, however, in terms of value, it was the third highest (RM91.1b; Sep: RM88.9b) ever recorded, indicating a continuing economic recovery despite government anticoronavirus measures.

− Detailed export statistics will be released in the first week of December.

● Moderation in export growth was driven by falling demand among most major export partners

− CN (4.9%; Sep: 41.9%): plummeted to a five-month low.

− US (25.6%; Sep: 22.1%): expanded despite a surge in US COVID-19 cases.

− EU (4.7%; Sep: 15.8%): growth slowed sharply, resulting from a weak demand following the resumption of lockdown measures across Europe.

● Import contraction continued for the eighth consecutive month at a faster pace of -6.0% YoY (Sep: -3.6%; KIBB: -0.7%; consensus: -4.9%). This persistent contraction was driven by falling re-exports (-4.9%; Sep: 38.6%) and weak retained imports (-6.3%; Sep: -13.1%)

− By segment, the demand for intermediate goods fell by less (-6.1%; Sep: -17.7%), purchases of consumption goods were reduced (6.5%; Sep: 11.2%), and the decline in purchases of capital goods worsened (-17.1%; Sep: -2.2%).

● Trade surplus rose to RM22.1b (Sep: RM21.9b) even as MoM export growth (2.4%; Sep: 12.4%) was outpaced by a rise in import growth (2.9%; Sep: 1.6%)

● 2020 export forecast range maintained (-10.0% to -5.0%; YTD: -3.3%; 2019: -0.8%)

− Despite encouraging signs that Malaysia trade activities are recovering from the unprecedented shock to supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the recent global resurgence in COVID-19 infections is seen to hurt external demand. Additionally, renewed restrictions to curb the COVID-19 spread in the country could present a headwind to the recovery as reflected by Malaysia’s Manufacturing PMI falling for the fourth consecutive month in October (48.5; Sep: 49.0).

− On the back of worsening COVID-19 situation and the reinstatement of Conditional Movement Control Order, we have revised our 4Q20 GDP forecast to a larger contraction of -1.7% (3Q20: -2.7%) from the previous -1.1%. Accordingly, the Malaysian economy is expected to see a contraction of -5.1% for 2020 (2019: 4.3%).

Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Nov 2020

Share this

  Be the first to like this.
 


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
View Trading Signals and run Live Backtest
MQ Affiliate
Earn rewards with MQ Affiliate Program
 
 

574  435  584  558 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 PA 0.20+0.015 
 IRIS 0.395+0.025 
 PA-WB 0.14+0.03 
 AT 0.170.00 
 VIVOCOM 0.965+0.13 
 DNEX 0.285+0.005 
 JAKS 0.69+0.015 
 SCIB 2.99+0.45 
 KSTAR 0.115-0.03 
 DNEX-WD 0.055-0.005 

FEATURED POSTS

1. The Equity Market Index Benchmark in Malaysia CMS
2. Trading Scenarios of Derivatives Bursa Derivatives Education Series
3. Derivatives 101 Bursa Derivatives Education Series
4. Why Trade FKLI? Bursa Derivatives Education Series
5. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
PARTNERS & BROKERS