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Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Fri, 18 Jun 2021, 10:01 AM

 

Indonesia Retail Sales - Growth fall at a slower pace in March on sign of economic recovery

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● Retail sales fell at a slower pace in March (-14.6% YoY; Feb:-18.1%),supportedby seasonal demand ahead ofthefasting month.

- Growth was partially supported by an improvement in clothing (-10.8%; Feb: -41.3%) cultural and recreational goods (-41.9%; Feb: -51.0%) as well as a rebound in automotive fuels (3.2%; Feb: -17.5%).

- MoM: rebounded sharply (6.1%; Feb: -2.7%) on the back of MoM growth rebound in other goods (16.5%; Feb: -10.1%) and clothing (8.4%; Feb: -8.7%).

● Growth to accelerate in April inconjunctionwiththe Islamic fastingmonth, favourable seasonal and weather conditions as well as various retail discount programs

- The Real Sales Index (RSI) is expected to rebound sharply by 9.8% YoY in April. The growth will be contributed by a sharp rebound in clothing (53.7%; Mar: -10.8%) and other goods (42.7%; Mar: -17.1%).

- On MoM, growth is expected to expand sharply by 11.4% (Mar: 6.1%), in line with the improved consumer confidence index (101.5; Mar: 93.4).

● Higher sales growth expected for the next three months

- 3-month Sales Expectation Index (SEI): to rise sharply in June (14.3%; expected May: 2.6), a three-month high.

- 6-month SEI: moderate growth expected in September (4.1%; expected Aug: 7.2%).

● Inflationary pressure is expected to remain weak for the next three to six months on weak demand and sufficient supply

- 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI): growth expected to fall sharply in June (-12.0% YoY; expected May: -9.6%).

- 6-month PEI: weak inflationary pressure expected to persist in September (-11.9% YoY; expected Aug: -7.8%).

● Retail sales may bounce to positive growth from April onwards

- Growth is expected to rebound in the near term, underpinned by low base effect and higher spending due to the festive season. Nonetheless, the extended micro-scale restriction until May 17 and fears over the potential COVID-19 resurgence may limit the recovery.

Source: Kenanga Research - 12 May 2021

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