Kenanga Research & Investment

Author: kiasutrader   |   Latest post: Wed, 11 Dec 2019, 9:27 AM


Malaysia Labour Market - Unemployment remains steady in September at 3.3%

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The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3% in September for the fourth straight month as growth in labour force, and employment grew at the same pace

- On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment was unchanged at 3.3%

- Unemployed persons up by 0.2% MoM (Aug: -0.9%), bringing the total unemployed persons to 521.4k (Aug: 520.2k).

Growth in labour force and employment grew at the same pace of 0.3% MoM (Aug: 0.0%)

- The overall labour force expanded to 15.75m persons in September (Aug: 15.71m).

- New job creation jumped to 44.1k (Aug: 6.0k) during the month.

- Growth in the employment of manufacturing sector decreased by 0.03% MoM in September (Aug: -0.01%).

Labour force participation rateinched up marginallyto68.7%in September(Aug: 68.6%), while job vacanciesdecreased sharply by 13.7% MoM in August (Jul: 9.5%)

- Mainly due to a contraction in growth of those outside the labour force (-0.2% MoM; Aug: -0.5%).

- Job vacancies stand at 78.4k (Jul: 90.8k), comprising of 64.4% share of low-skilled jobs (Jul: 69.4%).

Stable labour conditions globally

- US: jobless rate inched up by 10 bps to 3.6% in October (Sep: 3.5%) due to General Motors workers strike.

- EU: jobless rate remained at 20-year low, albeit increased marginally by 10 bps to 6.3% in September.

- Thailand: unemployment rate remained stable and edged down to 0.9% in October (Sep: 1.0%).

● Overall, we maintain our unemployment rate forecast at 3.5% this year (2018: 3.3%) in line with softer economic expansion for this year (4.5%; 2018: 4.7%)

- Attributed to heightened risk from the external sector, in particular, the trade war and global growth slowdown, which could weigh domestic manufacturing and hiring activities.

- Weak Manufacturing PMI in October, albeit improving, and a sharp contraction in September’s export performancemaylead to slower job creations in the near term.

Source: Kenanga Research - 12 Nov 2019

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