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Author: Tan KW   |   Latest post: Mon, 25 Mar 2019, 5:08 PM

 

Deep Value Investing has its Inherent Problems - investbullbear

Author:   |    Publish date:


Wednesday, 13 March 2019

 
Buffett said it best:

Unless you are a liquidator, that kind of approach to buying businesses is foolish.

  • First, the original 'bargain' price probably will not turn out to be such a steal after all. In a difficult business, no sooner is one problem solved than another surfaces - never is there just one cockroach in the kitchen. 
  • Second, any initial advantage you secure will be quickly eroded by the low return that the business earns ...

There are better ways to make money (see below).


Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, 1989.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1989.html





When the overall market valuation is high, and everything else is rising, those dropping and appearing in the deep-bargain screener probably deserved to be traded by low valuations.

  • Their stock prices were likely low for the right reasons, and buying these would likely have resulted in deep losses.
  • Therefore, when it comes to deep-value investing, investors need to be cautious and aware of this approach's inherent problems.




The inherent problems with deep value investing

"Cigar-butt investing"

This was coined by Buffett for the strategy of buying mediocre businesses at prices that are much lower than the companies' net asset values.

He said the approach is like "a cigar butt found on the street that has only one puff left in it and may not offer much of a smoke, but the "bargain purchase" will make that puff all profit."




There are several problems with this approach.

1. Erosion of value over time.

Mediocre businesses do not create value for their shareholders; instead, they destroy business value over time.

The value of the business can decline and the initial margin of safety may gradually shrink, even if the stock price doesn't go up.

Investors need to be lucky enough to have the stock prices rise in time and sell before prices drop again following the intrinsic value of the business.

"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre." Buffett wrote in his 1989 shareholder letter.


2. Timing and Pain

Buy these bargain portfolios when you can find plenty of them, but if the broad market is in quick decline, like in 2008, the bargain portfolio will be very likely to lose much more than the general market.

  • If the decline lasts longer, many of the companies in the portfolio may suffer steeper operating losses and may even go out of business.
  • It is much more painful to hold such a portfolio in bad times, as anyone who owns these stocks during bear markets or recessions will attest - and lose much sleep over.

Because of the quick erosion of business value, selling the deep-asset bargains quickly is key, even if stock prices do not appreciate. The biggest profits are usually achieved within the first 12 months.

"If you buy something because it is undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. That's hard." (Charlie Munger.)

Buffett likens buying mediocre businesses at deep bargain prices for a quick profit to dating without the intent of getting married. In that situation, it is essential to end the courtship at the right time and before the relationship turns sour.


3. Not Enough Stocks Qualify

To avoid errors and disasters caused by single stocks in the deep-bargain portfolio, it is important to have a diversified group of them.

But when the market valuation is high, it is just not possible to find enough stocks to satisfy the diversification requirement. They simply dried up as the market continued to tick higher.

This situation may last a long time, as the close-to-zero interest rate has lifted the valuations of all assets.


4. Tax Inefficiency

Because of the short holding time, any gain from the portfolio is subject to the same tax rate as the investor's income tax (for U.S. investors, unless it is in a retirement account.)

This drastically reduces the overall return over the long term.




If buying mediocre businesses at deep bargain prices for a quick profit is like a date without the intent of getting married, buying them and getting involved long term is like a marriage without love. A lot of other things need to be right to work things out, and it will never be a happy marriage.




Important Notes on Deep-Asset Bargains strategy


Though buying deep-asset bargains can be very profitable, this strategy comes with its inherent problems.

- This strategy comes with a much higher mental cost to investors.

- More importantly, business deterioration and the erosion of value put investors in a riskier position.

- As a result, they need to strictly follow the rules of maintaining a diversified portfolio and selling within 12 months whether investments worked out or not.




Ask yourself:

Why would you, as an investor, want to get involved in this mess (a deep-asset-bargain) and witness things deteriorating, hoping the situation will improve?

Even if it works out eventually, which is very unlikely (in the majority), the mental and psychological drain is simply not worth it.



There are better ways to make money.

Buy Only Good Companies!


"Bargain-purchase folly."


Instead of buying companies with deteriorating values on the cheap and hoping things will improve, why not buy companies that grow value over time?

Warren Buffett summarized in a single sentence the priceless lessons he learned from his personal "bargain-purchase folly".

"It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."



 
 

 

 

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2019/03/deep-value-investing-has-its-inherent.html

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  3 people like this.
 
qqq3 raid...sapura X 10 in 3 years?

This is pure trolling.

If Sapura X 3 in 3 years, just all in and sailang Sapura and leave the forum. no need look for any other stocks.

conclusion....u don't mean what u say, and don't say what u mean........
15/03/2019 1:38 AM
Icon8888 I am more realistic. Maybe double in 3 years

If triple very good already
15/03/2019 2:33 AM
JN88 Wow....Icon8888 still here....great to see you again...

Triple no problem.....but we need Donal Trump to push...
15/03/2019 3:53 AM
3iii >>>
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 14, 2019 10:53 PM | Report Abuse

what lah unker raider what price your Insas bought at oh walao eh, look at it now previously 80++ cents now only 78 cents. Even if it beat QL also temporary only, can you confidently tell me next QR Insas will perform better than QL in terms of earnings? or even revenue? No mah, that's where your margin of safety is gone lo
>>>



Raider is a poor learner. Not honest.
15/03/2019 7:14 AM
3iii >>>

Heavenly PUNTER Unker raider no lah, you can't look at short term performance if you are investing mah... so what if your INSAS better than QL temporary. I want to see 10 years from now leh. I also dunno when INSAS can become RM 2.0++ (the NTA whatever it is). I tell you all a secret lah, I hold one stock PE 100+ now (107 I think), I am not worried you know why? Coz I know the company well enough
14/03/2019 22:49

>>>>



Sounds like a small cap leap counter with potential for high growth.
15/03/2019 7:19 AM
3iii >>>
Heavenly PUNTER One important point this article raised is, you are an investor not a liquidator. You buy a share of the company, you don't have the ability to help it close shop. So no matter how high the NTA is, if the company perform shit and shit year after year, your cheap price will become expensive. You all really need to think this through. The shit performance will eat into the shareholder's equity until one day you will notice what happen to your margin of safety discounted NTA lah. Aiyoyo, like this also need me teach meh.
14/03/2019 22:47
>>>>

Raider does not understand margin of safety. He is a clown singing margin of safety as his slogan.

Don't buy just based on its asset values. You should pay for the cash flows generated by these assets.
15/03/2019 7:28 AM
3iii >>

qqq3 raid...sapura X 10 in 3 years?

This is pure trolling.

If Sapura X 3 in 3 years, just all in and sailang Sapura and leave the forum. no need look for any other stocks.

conclusion....u don't mean what u say, and don't say what u mean........
15/03/2019 01:38
>>>>


Insightful comment on a dishonest post by raider.
15/03/2019 7:35 AM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
Why the double standard? At least Mr. Stockraider tried to earn a honor living by very very hard working in promoting his stocks in i3. Whereas PLP king cum Batu Api is so dishonest, despicable, distasteful, disgusting and evil trying to use his manipulate charm and hypnotic skill to fool/dupe/deceive/taken in/mislead/hoodwink KYY to push up Perdana for him to profit again and again and leading entire newbie to Holland.

So let me ask you is this because Mr. Storckraider always likes to argue with you whereas PLP king quack quack quack know how to carry your ball. It must feel great and “Song” to have someone to carry the ball. God bless.

Thank you

PS: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3379.jsp?type=last10fy
10 years summary on INSAS’s quantitative analysis. NP to SH: CAGR of 6.37 %
15/03/2019 7:53 AM
Icon8888 3iii still thinks that by chanting at home he can become warren buffalo
15/03/2019 7:56 AM
3iii Sslee

Your perception is way out. I commented on a post by qqq and opined it was insightful.

If raider is honest, just bet hugely and quietly into his gem.

Of course, he is just promoting. You should know the difference.


By the way, do visit:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905118274.jsp
Deep value investing versus Momentum trading versus Buffett style investing





>>

qqq3 raid...sapura X 10 in 3 years?

This is pure trolling.

If Sapura X 3 in 3 years, just all in and sailang Sapura and leave the forum. no need look for any other stocks.

conclusion....u don't mean what u say, and don't say what u mean........
15/03/2019 01:38
>>>>
15/03/2019 8:00 AM
3iii >>

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 15, 2019 07:56 AM | Report Abuse

3iii still thinks that by chanting at home he can become warren buffalo

>>>>



I conclude that I will learn little of benefit for my investing from icon8888 however great he maybe.

Best wishes.
15/03/2019 8:03 AM
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Seee.... The stoneraider copy past entire thread spam messaging has begun. He will pollute your thread and drown out every voice.

Good luck.
15/03/2019 8:05 AM
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip If stoneraider is so certain his crystal ball tell him sapura can hit 70 billion in 3 years, why not just sell everything, buy every single share of sapura you can and leave the forum, ignore the noise.

I don't get it. INSAS maximum you said can get to rm3 only. Sapura is rm3 in 3 years.

In 3 years INSAS has never even performed at all.

Why don't all in sapura?

Sapura is a sure winner no? Rm3 in 3 years 3 months...
15/03/2019 8:15 AM
3iii SSLee,

You are sincere and honest in all your posts. This is obvious to me and probably to everyone here.

The thinking driving your investments is also clear to us as you have been very openly sharing with us with your clear and succint writing.

Investing is a journey. Over the years, many of our investing philosophy and strategy gets modified and refined, hopefully for the better, based on our individual circumstances (investment objectives, time horizon, risk tolerance and financial capacity).

Hope this thread highlighting the "Deep value investing has its inherent problems" helps your investing too."

Put it another way, "Yes, company X may probably make you 100% profit in the short term BUT it is a business I do not wish to be involved in, now or for the long term."



Regards.


3iii
15/03/2019 8:30 AM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
Thank you. And thank again for the link:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905118274.jsp
Deep value investing versus Momentum trading versus Buffett style investing

I admit I am a greenhorn in investing and get my investment totally wrong when I start my first investing journey in believing the audited financial account of Xingquan and burn my 1/3 worth of investment. Since then besides looking into the quantitative data, I also attend AGM to get to know the BOD and Management team and how they run the business.

Everyone know the danger of Stockraider too optimistic flaws in his many promotion comments on his stocks that is understandable but how to fault him when many people did not read the financial report and basically base on their TP: Quarter profit X 4 and PE of 10.

I am just trying my best to tell everyone the danger of quack quack quack good in sweet talking but full of shit and likely leading many newbie to Holland. So do comment on quack quack quack’s Perdana.

Thank you.
P/S: I am glad and grateful I am able to learn from all the Sifu in I3 and improving my investment skill and return. I particularly like to read KCChong, Philip, Jon, 3iii and many others Sifu article. There are a lot of wisdom and useful information in all of them.
15/03/2019 8:57 AM
qqq3 Sslee > Mar 15, 2019 08:57 AM | Report Abuse

I admit I am a greenhorn in investing
=========

It shows......not only in your stock pickings and losses.....It shows in your comments about me, about KYY, about OTB, about every thing and every one involved in stock market.

About KYY....he is not a slave of OTB......KYY is his own man.

About OTB, don't built a shrine to OTB, don't pay to do that. KYY do not do that.

About me and KYY....He is not a client....He is a friend I correspond with, nothing evil, nothing bad.

KYY is nothing if he is not his own man.


And I too.
15/03/2019 9:50 AM
3iii When I was first invited to join another forum by Leno in 2009 or so, I was bemused to find so many "value investors" in that forum. These investors included raider, Leno and many others. Their hero was Uyafr (who subsequently changed his avatar and name many times over the years).

Yes, value investing philosophy is fundamentally sound, but the way it was practised by them was flawed.

Xinguan, MSport, ... and many others were promoted by them for the simple reason, they were cheap based on their book asset values. Subsequent events proved them wrong and they lost their pants. Of course, few will admit their mistakes.

Also, companies like PMCorp and Insas were also promoted in early this decade (imagine almost 10 years already). These continued to be highlighted, each time their share prices climbed temporarily. Shamelessly, the same people claimed they bought and sold many times chun chun. Nothing is further than the truth.

Deep value investing is fine, but you will still need to be selective in the companies you choose to go into and you understand its inherent problems. I have done deep value investing over the years, and profitably too. But such opportunities are few, given my highly selective criteria.

Many who are promoting in this forum today claims they are sharing their undervalued tips, but in fact, they are playing momentum. Here too lies hidden problems for those who are not so smart. Be careful when playing momentum – following the trend may appear to be your friend, but can quickly turn into a foe you had never bargained for.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/be-careful-when-playing-momentum.html
15/03/2019 10:09 AM
Heavenly PUNTER Unker Sslee, of course I read the annual report, if not I won't be putting half my savings into a PE 100+ stock. You can't say PE high means overvalued lo Unker Raider. If like that really very sad life.
15/03/2019 10:15 AM
3iii >>>
If you do have to play momentum, do it in a conservative way with moderate risk. Most of all don’t be fooled by a manager’s great returns over a period – he may just be playing momentum. Check out his returns when the trend reverts.
>>>



Was not raider found swimming naked in 2018 when the tides retreated?
Why did KYY lose so much in 2018?
15/03/2019 10:16 AM
Heavenly PUNTER Unker sslee, you see if Insas keep losing money until one day they sold off all their Inari, you think they can generate profit from the lousy business they buy meh? If really so undervalued why they have so many cash parked there doing nothing? Can do sharebuyback mah if really undervalue but they don't do it why leh? Coz they have no idea how to allocate capital efficiently mah!!!
15/03/2019 10:18 AM
Heavenly PUNTER unker 3iii, you are correct lah timing the market is impossible mah, i read an article it says ah if you buy the dip you will lose out to dollar cost averaging also. Because even if you are like God you also can't time the market pefectly, so what's more we ordinary human leh? First rule to success is to know your own capability, no need to try and be overconfident, think you can time the market perfectly, if really can then people in EPF (so called fund managers experts), they should be able to make more than 6% easily mah...
15/03/2019 10:29 AM
stockraider RAIDER IS HIGHLY DISTURB AND CONCERN THAT SSlee consider an allies in value investment make this type of uninformed comment on raider loh..!!

"Everyone know the danger of Stockraider too optimistic flaws in his many promotion comments on his stocks that is understandable but how to fault him when many people did not read the financial report and basically base on their TP: Quarter profit X 4 and PE of 10."

Raider like to refute SSLEE comment strongly CLARIFY THIS LOH;

1. THE CALL TO BUY SAPNRG AT RM 0.30 TO RM 0.35 ARE DESIGNED TO GIVE U MAX PROFITS TO U...IF U FOLLOW RAIDER'S INVESTMENT GUIDELINE wholeheartedly LOH..!!
THERE ARE NO FLAWS AND NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC LOH...!!
WHY LEH ??
THIS IS BCOS RAIDER MAKE A CALL ONLY A FEW MONTHS AFTER THE TURNAROUND FACTORS OF SAPNRG BECOME VISIBLE AND SAPNRG SHARE PRICE IS STILL UNDERVALUE WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH...!!

2. RAIDER IS COMPLETELY HONEST WITH U LOH...AND GIVE U the MAX OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A KILLING ON SAPNRG, UNLIKE PEOPLE LIKE PHILIP AND 3iii AFTER BUYING QL AND NESTLE FOR MORE THAN 10 YRS...COME TO PROMOTE TO U WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY AND OVERVALUE WITH PE MORE THAN 50X after 10 yrs when there are no more exceptional margin mah!.

3. RAIDER JUST WANT U TO BE veli RICH, AND SHARE THE huge BOUNTY of sapnrg WITH RAIDER together, BCOS I M A VERY GENEROUS PERSON...IF I GET VERY RICH ALONE...I FEEL VERY LONELY LOH......!!

Posted by Sslee > Mar 15, 2019 08:57 AM | Report Abuse
Dear 3iii,
Thank you. And thank again for the link:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/905118274.jsp
Deep value investing versus Momentum trading versus Buffett style investing

I admit I am a greenhorn in investing and get my investment totally wrong when I start my first investing journey in believing the audited financial account of Xingquan and burn my 1/3 worth of investment. Since then besides looking into the quantitative data, I also attend AGM to get to know the BOD and Management team and how they run the business.

Everyone know the danger of Stockraider too optimistic flaws in his many promotion comments on his stocks that is understandable but how to fault him when many people did not read the financial report and basically base on their TP: Quarter profit X 4 and PE of 10.

I am just trying my best to tell everyone the danger of quack quack quack good in sweet talking but full of shit and likely leading many newbie to Holland. So do comment on quack quack quack’s Perdana.

Thank you.
P/S: I am glad and grateful I am able to learn from all the Sifu in I3 and improving my investment skill and return. I particularly like to read KCChong, Philip, Jon, 3iii and many others Sifu article. There are a lot of wisdom and useful information in all of them.
15/03/2019 10:42 AM
Heavenly PUNTER Unker Raider, really lah, this kind of turnaround company I will never touch, I bought it once at RM 2.80, after few months become RM 2.00, then I am like wtf is this company. From then onwards I know better, don't buy just because the price fall, coz it fall lower and lower, luckily I sold at RM 2.00 if not I will cry really. This management is clearly incompetent.
15/03/2019 10:44 AM
Heavenly PUNTER I will never ever look at this counter again, it's considered dead to me no matter how well they do, coz one day if the oil price tank again, they will return to where they are 1 year ago, right issues. If a company cannot manage it debts properly, it's more or less dead. Just like a person, if a person cannot manage their debt properly they are also more or less a failure in life already mah.
15/03/2019 10:45 AM
Choivo Capital Raider.

You cannot deny that SSLEE has his point.

You're always very optimistic and strong in promotion in your stocks. And many did not end up well.

Evergreen
Hengyuan

etc.

May i suggest you be more moderated. If one only talks about the good thing, but not the bad, that says something.
15/03/2019 10:46 AM
stockraider I leave it to u to see after 3 yrs and 3 mths...i reiterate my well intention here loh....!!

1. THE CALL TO BUY SAPNRG AT RM 0.30 TO RM 0.35 ARE DESIGNED TO GIVE U MAX PROFITS TO U...IF U FOLLOW RAIDER'S INVESTMENT GUIDELINE wholeheartedly LOH..!!
THERE ARE NO FLAWS AND NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC LOH...!!
WHY LEH ??
THIS IS BCOS RAIDER MAKE A CALL ONLY A FEW MONTHS AFTER THE TURNAROUND FACTORS OF SAPNRG BECOME VISIBLE AND SAPNRG SHARE PRICE IS STILL UNDERVALUE WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH...!!

2. RAIDER IS COMPLETELY HONEST WITH U LOH...AND GIVE U the MAX OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A KILLING ON SAPNRG, UNLIKE PEOPLE LIKE PHILIP AND 3iii AFTER BUYING QL AND NESTLE FOR MORE THAN 10 YRS...COME TO PROMOTE TO U WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY AND OVERVALUE WITH PE MORE THAN 50X after 10 yrs when there are no more exceptional margin mah!.

3. RAIDER JUST WANT U TO BE veli RICH, AND SHARE THE huge BOUNTY of sapnrg WITH RAIDER together, BCOS I M A VERY GENEROUS PERSON...IF I GET VERY RICH ALONE...I FEEL VERY LONELY LOH......!!


Posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 15, 2019 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

Raider.

You cannot deny that SSLEE has his point.

You're always very optimistic and strong in promotion in your stocks. And many did not end up well.

Evergreen
Hengyuan

etc.

May i suggest you be more moderated. If one only talks about the good thing, but not the bad, that says something.
15/03/2019 10:48 AM
stockraider WHICH ONE U PREFER IN YOUR QUEST FOR SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT WEALTH BUILDING ???

BUY NOW THE SHARE TODAY AND LIMIT UP TOMORROW COMPARE TO BUY THE SHARE TODAY AND UP O.5 SEN TO 2 SEN UP EVERYDAY FOR THE NEXT 200 DAYS LEH ??

RAIDER WOULD CHOSE THE LATTER ?? WHY LEH ??

A} IF U BUY TODAY UP TOMORROW ....YES U MAKE FAST MONIES....BUT CAN U BUILD WEALTH....NOT REALLY LOH...!!
1. IT UP SO FAST DO U HAVE TIME TO BUILD BIG POSITION LEH ?
2. DO U DARE DARE TO BUY BIG BIG...FAST FAST.. WITHOUT INSIDER INFO LEH ?? USUALLY NO NO LOH.....!!
3. THUS LIMIT UP IS ONLY FOR SOONG SOONG PLAY...NOT REALLY SERIOUS MANY MAKING WEALTH BUILDING LOH....!!

B} ON THE OTHER HAND....U SELECTED A GOOD STOCK SLOWLY ACCUMULATE BIG POSITION OVER 3 TO 4 MTHS....U WILL MAKE VERY VERY BIG RETURN LOH...!!

SAPNRG IS THAT KIND OF STOCK THAT WILL MAKE U VERY RICH AS IT GIVE TIME FOR U TO ACCUMULATE LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 14, 2019 09:16 PM | Report Abuse X

SAPNRG IS CREEPING UP O.5 TO 2.0 SEN ALMOST EVERYDAY, NOW IT IS UP TO RM 0.35 MAH.....!!

SO HOW LONG MUST U WAIT OR HOW LONG MUST U HOLD THIS VERY UNDERVALUE SAPNRG STOCK LEH ??

TO ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION PLEASE LISTEN TO JON CHIVO LEARNED ADVICE HERE MAH......!!

"Despite the irrationality of their participants, their diversity ensures that they are all irrational in different directions, giving a net effect of zero, allowing the wisdom of crowds to prevail over the long term.
This ensures that the market is efficient and accurate most of the time. This means that over the long term, movements in share prices are usually in line with movement in earnings.

However, this diversity can often undergo phase transition, and thus result in boom or bust in the short term. What is a phase transition? This is where small incremental changes in causes lead to large-scale effects, or the “Grand Ah-Whoom!” moment.

What is this Grand Ah-Whoom! moment?
Imagine this. Put a tray of water into your freezer and the temperature drops to the threshold of freezing. The water remains a liquid until—ah-whoom—it suddenly turns into ice. Just a small incremental change in temperature leads to a change from liquid to solid.

The Grand Ah-Whoom! moment, occurs in many complex systems where collective behavior emerges from the interaction of its constituent parts. And this includes the behavior of the stock market.
In complex systems with human beings like the stock market, diversity is the most likely condition to fail first.


TAKE NOTE OF THIS POINT

As you slowly remove diversity, nothing happens initially. Additional reductions may also have no effect. But at a certain critical point, a small incremental reduction causes the system to change qualitatively."

THIS MEANS U NEED TO HOLD UNTIL INFLEXION POINT WHERE THE VERY UNDERVALUE SAPNRG SHARE WILL BREAKOUT AND EXPLODE LIKE ATOMIC BOOM UPWARDS LOH.....!!

RAIDER SEE THIS NUCLEAR BOOM WILL LIKELY TO EXPLODE SHARPLY UPWARDS SOMEWHERE RM 0.80 AND WITHIN A VERY SHORT PERIOD....WILL TAKE THE SHARE PRICE THRU THE ROOF OF RM 1.00, RM 2.00 AND RM 3.00 LOH....!!

THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY EARNINGS OF RM 3.0 TO RM 5.0 BILLION PA LOH....!!
15/03/2019 10:59 AM
stockraider Ask yourself do u want to be simply trying to be moderate when u r really cocksure of surewin leh ??

Yes why u want to waste time and indulge in the academic of plus & minus....when behind our head already calculated big big very explosive surewin coming mah....!!

Just rush & get the ball quickly and play mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 15, 2019 10:48 AM | Report Abuse X

I leave it to u to see after 3 yrs and 3 mths...i reiterate my well intention here loh....!!

1. THE CALL TO BUY SAPNRG AT RM 0.30 TO RM 0.35 ARE DESIGNED TO GIVE U MAX PROFITS TO U...IF U FOLLOW RAIDER'S INVESTMENT GUIDELINE wholeheartedly LOH..!!
THERE ARE NO FLAWS AND NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC LOH...!!
WHY LEH ??
THIS IS BCOS RAIDER MAKE A CALL ONLY A FEW MONTHS AFTER THE TURNAROUND FACTORS OF SAPNRG BECOME VISIBLE AND SAPNRG SHARE PRICE IS STILL UNDERVALUE WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH...!!

2. RAIDER IS COMPLETELY HONEST WITH U LOH...AND GIVE U the MAX OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A KILLING ON SAPNRG, UNLIKE PEOPLE LIKE PHILIP AND 3iii AFTER BUYING QL AND NESTLE FOR MORE THAN 10 YRS...COME TO PROMOTE TO U WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY AND OVERVALUE WITH PE MORE THAN 50X after 10 yrs when there are no more exceptional margin mah!.

3. RAIDER JUST WANT U TO BE veli RICH, AND SHARE THE huge BOUNTY of sapnrg WITH RAIDER together, BCOS I M A VERY GENEROUS PERSON...IF I GET VERY RICH ALONE...I FEEL VERY LONELY LOH......!!


Posted by Choivo Capital > Mar 15, 2019 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

Raider.

You cannot deny that SSLEE has his point.

You're always very optimistic and strong in promotion in your stocks. And many did not end up well.

Evergreen
Hengyuan

etc.

May i suggest you be more moderated. If one only talks about the good thing, but not the bad, that says something.
15/03/2019 11:17 AM
qqq3 Investing is participating in the growth of good quality companies. By definition, all speculations / trading is playing the game of musical chairs. See who holds the stick when the music stops.


As for Dayang and Perdana, they have very weak Balance Sheets. A restructuring is imminent. Its who holds the stick when the music stops. And who takes the risk and make money while the game is on.
15/03/2019 11:39 AM
qqq3 lets look at sapura and see whether it is investing or speculations....

its predictability, no nasty surprises, understandability, understood, quality of management, quality of business.....all low to average....

Sapura is a speculation/ trading at best, not a good proper investment opportunity.
15/03/2019 12:26 PM
stockraider If u know what u r doing, it is investment mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 15, 2019 11:17 AM | Report Abuse X

Ask yourself do u want to be simply trying to be moderate when u r really cocksure of surewin leh ??

Yes why u want to waste time and indulge in the academic of plus & minus....when behind our head already calculated big big very explosive surewin coming mah....!!

Just rush & get the ball quickly and play mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 15, 2019 10:48 AM | Report Abuse X

I leave it to u to see after 3 yrs and 3 mths...i reiterate my well intention here loh....!!

1. THE CALL TO BUY SAPNRG AT RM 0.30 TO RM 0.35 ARE DESIGNED TO GIVE U MAX PROFITS TO U...IF U FOLLOW RAIDER'S INVESTMENT GUIDELINE wholeheartedly LOH..!!
THERE ARE NO FLAWS AND NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC LOH...!!
WHY LEH ??
THIS IS BCOS RAIDER MAKE A CALL ONLY A FEW MONTHS AFTER THE TURNAROUND FACTORS OF SAPNRG BECOME VISIBLE AND SAPNRG SHARE PRICE IS STILL UNDERVALUE WITH HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH...!!

2. RAIDER IS COMPLETELY HONEST WITH U LOH...AND GIVE U the MAX OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A KILLING ON SAPNRG, UNLIKE PEOPLE LIKE PHILIP AND 3iii AFTER BUYING QL AND NESTLE FOR MORE THAN 10 YRS...COME TO PROMOTE TO U WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY AND OVERVALUE WITH PE MORE THAN 50X after 10 yrs when there are no more exceptional margin mah!.

3. RAIDER JUST WANT U TO BE veli RICH, AND SHARE THE huge BOUNTY of sapnrg WITH RAIDER together, BCOS I M A VERY GENEROUS PERSON...IF I GET VERY RICH ALONE...I FEEL VERY LONELY LOH......!!

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 15, 2019 11:39 AM | Report Abuse

Investing is participating in the growth of good quality companies. By definition, all speculations / trading is playing the game of musical chairs. See who holds the stick when the music stops.


As for Dayang and Perdana, they have very weak Balance Sheets. A restructuring is imminent. Its who holds the stick when the music stops. And who takes the risk and make money while the game is on.


Posted by qqq3 > Mar 15, 2019 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

lets look at sapura and see whether it is investing or speculations....

its predictability, no nasty surprises, understandability, understood, quality of management, quality of business.....all low to average....

Sapura is a speculation/ trading at best, not a good proper investment opportunity.
15/03/2019 12:29 PM
Sslee Dear 3iii,
Thank again for your advice. Looking into INSAS quantitative 10 year record, I do not think INSAS is undervalued 10 year ago. I bought INSAS share only in 2017 and attended INSAS’s AGM in year 2017 and 2018 and make friend with current CEO Dato’ Wong.

Thank you
P/S: So see for yourself am I wrong to label quack quack quack as PLP king cum Batu Api and the most dishonest, despicable, distasteful, disgusting , evil and envy with green of KoonBee success and trying his dirty best to “Batu Api” KoonBee again?

Posted by qqq3 > Mar 15, 2019 09:50 AM | Report Abuse
Sslee > Mar 15, 2019 08:57 AM | Report Abuse
I admit I am a greenhorn in investing
=========
It shows......not only in your stock pickings and losses.....It shows in your comments about me, about KYY, about OTB, about every thing and every one involved in stock market.
About KYY....he is not a slave of OTB......KYY is his own man.
About OTB, don't built a shrine to OTB, don't pay to do that. KYY do not do that.
About me and KYY....He is not a client....He is a friend I correspond with, nothing evil, nothing bad.
KYY is nothing if he is not his own man.
And I too.

So I repeat quack quack quack is a fake accountant, a fraudster, a backstabber, a bootlicker, an ass-kisser, a shameless manipulator, King of PLP, King of double talk, King of backstabber, King of poison slanderer, King of jealously, King of low life, King of bullshitting and talk cock, King of dishonest, despicable, distasteful, disgusting and evil. I admit, I am cruel and mean to quack quack quack because of what he had done in unashamedly misleading many newbie and even veteran investors to Holland.
So quack quack quack what have you to say now? By the way Mr. Koon and Mr. Ooi is like ‘Abang-adik” now with mutual respect and understanding. So please stop your bullshit and “Batu Api” uncalled for and demeaning/insulting word of slave and shrine
15/03/2019 12:53 PM
Sslee Dear Stockraider,
I know you have good intention and completely honest in wanting everyone to be rich by the first move advantage in investing turnaround company SAPNRG. But just be caution some of your previous over-enthusiasm and overoptimistic calls do not turn up well.

In I3 we are blessed with many Sifu (3iii include) having the same good and noble intention to teach newbie on how to invest. I do not have any doubt on your and many Sifu’s good intention except “you know who quack quack quack” so evil, dishonest, despicable, distasteful, disgusting and manipulating.

Thank you
15/03/2019 12:55 PM
Sslee Dear Hevenly PUNTER,
Good you do read annual report and bought PE100 stock then do you know what is PEG ratio? You better consult 3iii to give you his professional opinion of your PE100 stock.

By the way INSAS had not record any loss year yet for the past 10 years and they still have 600million+ Inari share to sell.

As of why no share buyback by Insas? This is because Dato’ Sri Thong and PAC now collectively hold 32.96% of free float and any share buyback will trigger threshold of 33% and unconditional MGO from Dato’ Sri Thong.

Thank you.
15/03/2019 1:02 PM
Sslee Dear all,
Repost from Jon comment in RCECAP forum
The only reason why cigar butt method is outdated, is because they are so few of these companies left, and not much money can be placed in them , especially in the US.

Buffet stopped, because his capital is too large and he did not enjoy the process. Schloss stopped because he couldn't find any anymore.

This is not the case in malaysia. You have fairly profitable property development companies, paying out 4-6% dividend yield, selling for 50-70% discount to liquidation value. its a no brainer to buy some in a diversified, for me at least.

Here are two funds in malaysia/singapore who are practicing it quite successfully with good returns. Yeoman Capital, and Aggregate Asset Management.

In the US, you may have heard of this person called Seth Klarman.

There is no such thing as outdated, when it comes to value investing, just whether it can still be executed.

And this is not a cigar butt for me.

That is one way to think about PE6, but at some point, VITROX, PADINI, INARI were below 10PE PE and yielding 7% dividends.

The goal in investing is to find where market is wrong or inefficient, make your purchase, and wait for the market to correct itself.

Wells fargo, BOA etc also have low-ish valuations compared to the market, despite capital structures being far better than in the previous years.

What is investing but the long term arbitrage between the price of the stock and the intrinsic value of the company?

I think the market is wrong.

On your questions on the company, i know enough to understand the 5-10 year competitiveness of the company and the industry, and at this price, i've got a good enough margin of safety. I don't engage in false precision, and chase after information that have low utility.

See the trees miss the woods and all.

This isn't a 50PE company, where i better be right on every single aspect. Still i do enjoy the process of getting to know the company better.
15/03/2019 1:04 PM
Heavenly PUNTER Thanks Unker sslee for the clarification on share buyback, i will go back and look at Insas again.
15/03/2019 4:47 PM
Heavenly PUNTER Yeah PEG is PE Growth ratio mah, But my maths no good, I also don't really know how to count, but leave it lah, slow and steady.
15/03/2019 4:47 PM
Heavenly PUNTER Unker SsLee, then why don't give dividend ah? So much spare cash
15/03/2019 4:57 PM
qqq3 by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 15, 2019 04:47 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks Unker sslee for the clarification on share buyback, i will go back and look at Insas again.
==========

u ask about company share buy back...sslee the idiot talks about owner ...................
15/03/2019 6:17 PM
stockmanmy stockmanmy > Mar 15, 2019 06:22 PM | Report Abuse X

y Sslee > Mar 15, 2019 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

So I repeat quack quack quack is a fake accountant, a fraudster, a backstabber, a bootlicker, an ass-kisser, a shameless manipulator, King of PLP, King of double talk, King of backstabber, King of poison slanderer, King of jealously, King of low life, King of bullshitting and talk cock, King of dishonest, despicable, distasteful, disgusting and evil. I admit, I am cruel and mean to quack quack quack because of what he had done in unashamedly misleading many newbie and even veteran investors to Holland.

=========

I do think think u need to see a psychiatrist.....before they send u to Tanjong Rambutan.
15/03/2019 6:23 PM
qqq3 I am cruel and mean to quack quack quack because of what he had done in unashamedly misleading many newbie and even veteran investors to Holland.
=====

I am so powerful one ah?

I do not feel the power......

I only know I have made 200% in last 2 years and if people lose money , it must be due to their own stupidity..........
15/03/2019 7:04 PM
qqq3 by Sslee > Mar 15, 2019 12:53 PM | Report Abuse


By the way Mr. Koon and Mr. Ooi is like ‘Abang-adik” now with mutual respect and understanding.
==========

I can only confirn there is a customer/ remisier relationship between them.


But, really la, don't treat OTB as God and don't built shrine for remisier...that is not how stock market work.
15/03/2019 7:37 PM
qqq3 retailers and remisiers are being trained in quarter profits X 4, portfolio managers main priority is the quality of their portfolio of companies, as it should.

so now, we have the two groups fighting it out.


in the long run, who will win, who will lose , its easy to predict.

ps...there is a third group , people like this sslee who buys shares based on discounts to NTA.
15/03/2019 8:42 PM
Heavenly PUNTER Aiyo you all ah unkers ah, really too free meh why everyday argue lah
15/03/2019 9:10 PM
qqq3 Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 15, 2019 09:10 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyo you all ah unkers ah, really too free meh why everyday argue lah
=========

do I look like arguing or being faced by a madman SSlee?
15/03/2019 9:29 PM
Sslee Dear Hevenly PUNTER,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/198128.jsp
To answer your questions on Insas see above article:
Thank for asking.

P/S: Posted by qqq3 > Mar 15, 2019 09:50 AM
About me and KYY....He is not a client....He is a friend I correspond with, nothing evil, nothing bad.
If you have a back-stabbing friend like quack quack quack, who needs enemies?
15/03/2019 11:19 PM
qqq3 ss

u need to see a psychiatrist, u need it.
15/03/2019 11:40 PM
qqq3 Sslee > Mar 15, 2019 08:57 AM | Report Abuse

I admit I am a greenhorn in investing
=========

It shows......not only in your stock pickings and losses.....It shows in your comments about me, about KYY, about OTB, about every thing and every one involved in stock market. ....and including the functions of AGMs.

About KYY....he is not a slave of OTB......KYY is his own man.

About OTB, don't built a shrine to OTB, don't pay to do that. KYY do not do that.

About me and KYY....He is not a client....He is a friend I correspond with, nothing evil, nothing bad.

KYY is nothing if he is not his own man.


And I too.
16/03/2019 12:10 AM
qqq3 sslee

How was your ultimatum to KYY? Any results?
16/03/2019 12:20 AM
qqq3 sslee

How was your ultimatum to KYY? Any results?

I can recommend u a good psychiatrist in Tanjong Rambutan if u just ask.
16/03/2019 12:21 AM


 

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