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Author: Tan KW   |   Latest post: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:50 AM

 

[转贴] 馬斯克成全球第 2 富豪,誰在推動電動車科技股的暴漲?

Author: Tan KW   |  Publish date: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:50 AM


作者:經緯張穎   |   2020 / 11 / 29

文章來源:虎嗅網   |   圖片來源:股感知識庫


最近有很多人在問,電動車股票到底為什麼大漲?我們投資的理想汽車在上市後大漲了 280% 、小鵬漲了 370% ;A股的新能源龍頭比亞迪(BYD, 002594-CN )也比年初上漲了 280% ,而特斯拉(Tesla, TSLA-US)的市值幾乎是豐田(Toyota, 7203-JP )的 2 倍,但所有電動車公司的交付量還只是燃油車的一個零頭。

我們自己雖然很看好,對這種短時間內的股價漲幅也十分吃驚。如果硬要尋找理由,那可能跟市場突然認可了電動車的遠期潛力、中國和歐洲大力推行電動車替代燃油車、美國下一任總統拜登大力支持新能源、中概股越來越變成了一個外在的 “ 科創板 ” 等等因素有關,但這些都只是事後諸葛。

其實今年市場的瘋狂遠超想像,不只是這些大家能看到的上市公司在大漲,很多一級市場優秀公司的估值也很瘋狂。

從年初到現在,我們簡單數了一下,至少有 100 多家近期融資的經緯系公司,估值翻了 2 倍~ 8 倍。比如我們在 2013 年投資的猿輔導,估值從 3 月份的 78 億美元飆升到 10 月份的 155 億美元。

經緯一直是專注於早期的基金,對於我們已經投過的、市場表現好的公司,他們再融資時我們也會加碼,以保護股比,但今年估值上升太快,我甚至也會一時覺得下不了手。估值到底是不是合理的?面對大家都感興趣的這個問題,我也嘗試去分析一些原因,也許說完會被市場打臉,但我覺得需要用新的眼光去看待估值。

特斯拉的高估值是如何產生的?

我們先來看看特斯拉的例子。特斯拉交付的車大概只有全球最大車企豐田的 1% ,市值卻是豐田的 2 倍,這是泡沫嗎?即便有泡沫存在,但投資者為什麼會對電動車如此瘋狂?

如果按照傳統的估值方式給特斯拉估值,是萬萬想不到特斯拉會有今天的股價。紐約大學教授達摩達蘭曾做過一個預測,如果你把特斯拉僅當成一家成功的車企,在 10 年後能交付比BMW多、但少於賓士(母公司 Daimler, DAI-DE)的電動車銷量,那麼營收能達到 1250 億美元,利潤率高於一般車企設定成 12% ,算下來最終對應的是 430 美元/股。

但如果換一個思路,把特斯拉當成是一家恰好做汽車業務的科技公司,能像全球最大的車企一樣實現那麼多營收,同時又有堪比最頂級科技公司的利潤率和資本效率,這個故事就值錢很多,能得到的 “ 最高估值 ” 是 2105 美元/股。 2020 年 11 月 25 日,特斯拉的股價是 2776 美元/股。

低利率時代逼迫投資者追逐有限的優質標的使得擁擠的交易變得更加擁擠。市場對公司價值的判斷正在非常誇張地前置,傳統的估值思路在一定程度上失效,這都讓我們要用新眼光來看待估值方法,不能刻舟求劍。

傳統估值方式失效,投資判斷越來越前置

金融裡很多衡量價值的方法,都是在 20 世紀中期的美國逐漸發展起來的,那時候經濟發展穩定,股票市場非常明顯的圍繞一條價值主線在上下波動。所以尋找被低估的公司成為那時候的有效手段,本益比等估值方法也成為主流。

但如今,我們要用新的眼光去看待估值。紐約大學教授達摩達蘭一直反對用席勒本益比,很多人草率的看了一眼歷史數字,就武斷地說股市有泡沫。你從哪裡得到的數據?席勒本益比的數據從 1871 年開始,而現在的商業和技術環境已經完全不一樣了,這是一種偷懶。

我們對泡沫的認知,從 2015 年開始逐漸變化。在 2015 年以前,我們傾向於認為泡沫都是非理性的,危機中臨時採取的量化寬鬆或是低利率早晚會回歸常態。但事實證明, 2015 年之後雖然全球資本市場逐漸從 2008 年金融危機中走出,但一切似乎仍然很貴。

這種情況令傳統的估值方法在一定程度上失效。因為你很難用本益比、股價淨值比,或是企業價值與稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤(Ebitda)的比率來給仍在建立商業模式的年輕公司估值,這些數字必然很高,看起來都無法下手。

判斷企業估值的核心因素:現金流、成長和風險,都要從未來著手,所以估值思路也要從靜態走向動態、從回顧走向前瞻,久遠的歷史數據不能成為拐杖。今年尤其不同,低利率時代逼迫投資者追逐有限的優質標的,使得擁擠的交易變得更加擁擠,市場對公司價值的判斷正在非常誇張的前置。原本一家公司可能需要 6 年來建立完整的商業循環,利潤開始釋放,客戶價值變厚,但現在整個市場的判斷更加前置了,市場可能會提早行動,在公司發展到第 3 年的時候,基於預期就已經達到第 6 年時的估值水平。

以前說投資要找 “ 好公司+好價格 ” ,現在 “ 好價格 ” 需要重新定義。例如特斯拉,當市場認可了汽車電動化和智慧化的預期後,這個故事就變得非常昂貴,市場開始按 “ 車企的營收+科技股的利潤率 ” 來估值。

出現估值思路變化的本質是什麼?其實還是今天很多公司的成長邏輯已經改變,以前大部分公司都是線性成長,我們甚至可以按照一國的人均收入水平和GDP成長來預測公司業務成長。但新經濟打破了這種成長模式,變成了指數型。公司可能在臨界點前都在虧損,一旦突破,就是指數型的成長,這給資本市場估值帶來了革命性的變化。


以前大部分是一級市場在追捧這類公司,但如今 “ 二級市場一級化 ” 大幅度提升,投資判斷越來越前置,比 2 年~ 3 年前誇張很多。無論是拼多多(Pinduoduo Inc, PDD-US)、特斯拉,還是 120 倍P/S上市的Snowflake (以前一家頭部SaaS公司如果有 30 倍~ 40 倍P/S就已經很高了,即便超熱門的影片通訊公司ZOOM,在疫情后也僅漲到 70 倍),都是很明顯的結果。

如今,我們越來越進入了一個充滿不確定性的世界。對公司估值的定價權,不在公司手裡,也不在VC手裡,而是在市場手裡,估值完全由供需決定。 “ 好價格 ” 已經不復存在,我們需要重新思考安全邊際。但對於VC來說,核心永遠都在 “ 能否投對 ” 。

估值的錨定標準已變

接下來我想說說利率,因為這是我們理解估值方式變化的基礎。利率是一切金融資產的基準,利率一變,價值判斷和估值的基礎也就跟著變了,此時估值理念也需要做出相應改變。疫情期間全球降息了 67 次,特別是美國聯準會多次降低了美國聯邦基金利( 5383-TW )率(Federal funds rate),這個利率在金融市場很重要,因為證券估值時有一個折現率,直接跟它有關,現在這個 “ 錨 ” 已經到達了歷史最低水平。

對於各類資產來說,風險—收益排序可以看下圖,最底層的基石就是國庫券(Treasurys,它的定價基於上文說的聯邦基金利率),當美國聯準會在今年疫情后降低了這一無風險利率後,就改變了所有預期收益,通常來說,起點越低,所有資產的預期收益就越低。

投資中的大多數決策是相對的,我們都在尋找風險與收益的最佳平衡。而錢是聰明的,只要有利可圖,它會以最快的速度從一種資產類別轉移到另一種。當你面對債券與股票的傳統投資組合,極端一點,你只能二選一,當債券收益下降,它們對股票的競爭就減少了,因此股票不必便宜就能吸引買家,而那些具備高成長潛力的股票,買家還會蜂擁而入。這就是當下正在發生的事情,低利率直接推高了估值,而疫情又令高估值集中在特定領域(比如科技和醫療),一切符合條件的資產都在瘋狂提高價格。

蘋果(Apple, AAPL-US)一家公司的市值就比沃爾瑪(Walmart, WMT-US)、寶僑(Procter & Gamble, PG-US)、可口可樂(Coca-Cola, KO-US)等公司加起來還大,並且與能源+公用事業+材料板塊(包括了埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil, XOM-US)、美國電力、陶氏化學等)的總和相當。而Facebook一家也超過了整個能源產業。

當估值的 “ 錨 ” ——基礎利率發生了改變後,我們看到了這樣的一個世界:一是標普 500 的估值水平已經超過了 2000 年網路泡沫時的頂峰;二是這一輪瘋狂以高成長的科技巨頭引領,例如五巨頭Facebook、Amazon、Apple、Netflix、Google,占到整個標普 500 指數 23% 的市值比例,而那些成長趨緩的傳統價值股(例如能源股),卻下跌了不少。

這種新變化帶來了一系列反應,在估值上最大的體現就是——要 “ 成長 ” 不要 “ 價值 ” ,疫情又加重了這種分歧,這一現象在中國幾家領先平台級網路公司(例如美團、拼多多、嗶哩嗶哩)身上也十分明顯。此時,如果死守以往的經驗,就會犯 “ 刻舟求劍 ” 的錯誤,因為新的時代已經開始。

繁榮會持續多久?如何應對未來?

當我們以全新的眼光來看待這些變化,就不難理解一些正在發生的事。在一級市場,資金正瘋狂爭搶頭部項目,疫情也大大加重了這一點。如今,一個大產業裡的絕對頭部公司融資 10 億美金,比一個普通公司融資 1 億人民幣還容易。很多一級市場公司年初剛剛投完,現在的估值已經翻了 1.5 倍~ 4 倍,頭部效應越來越明顯。

截止 2020 年 10 月,經緯已經新投資了近 75 家公司,老項目加碼了 50 多次,經緯系共有近 140 多家公司完成了新融資。我們發現,各個細分領域裡第一名的規模,可能比第二名、第三名加起來的總和還要高,距離也還在拉大,現在已經不是 “ 2 — 8 定律 ” ,而是非常明顯的 “ 1 — 9 定律 ” 。當然,這裡面有一個暫時的因素是,很多美元基金在今年初都完成了新一輪募資。絕大部分基金都有自己的生命週期,這一定程度上也造成了短期的市場火熱。

這一點某種程度上和 2014 年~ 2015 年的火熱情況有些類似。而我們回頭看,那一波基金因為有了錢,相對激進的投下了很多 “ 種子 ” ,又因為最近特殊的市場環境,尤其是國內外火熱的IPO行情,今天紛紛 “ 開花結果 ” ,這進而會再一次影響下一波的行情,如此反覆。

這種繁榮會持續多久?確實要警惕二級市場的變數,如今沒有人會用FAANG當下的營收和利潤來給他們估值,都用的是對未來的預測。但FAANG的高估值,來源於他們佔領的龐大市場佔有率,以及隨之而來的高利潤率,這也正是它們的脆弱點,因為美國聯邦政府正在針對大型科技公司進行反壟斷訴訟,中國也存在類似的可能。

還有一個不確定因素是中美貿易摩擦,摩擦高機率將是未來的中長期狀態,這勢必會影響美股上的中國公司,估值調整也會成為新常態,而股市是一個非常重要的風向標,它會最終傳導到一級市場的定價。

所以,如果這些不確定因素最終爆發並導致二級市場下行,基於一二級市場聯動效應,漣漪反應會傳遞到我們這裡。就像 2015 年A股市場股災,最終也穿透到了一級市場,大量創業項目的估值和融資額出現 “ 腰斬 ” ,一些燒錢的模式(例如 O2O )難以為繼。

給創業公司的建議

上面說了這麼多關於市場情緒和未來走向的事情,作為一個天天和創業者打交道的人,我想我們還能做的就是給創業公司一些建議:

 

  1. 不管大環境會不會出現動盪,現在成為頭部的回報無疑比以前更高了,一個產業裡的前三名基本會是 6 — 3 — 1 的格局。不過我最近和很多人交談,需要指出的一點是,很多人會誤以為自己是頭部。一方面要通過理性的數據和誠實的比較來分析,例如看市場佔有率、營業收入和淨利潤規模,是否產業第一;另一方面要通過感性維度,比如團隊迭代、自己的成長、打法策略來思考。
  2. 後疫情時代,很多產業都出現了質變的機會,而不僅僅是量變。很多創業者剛開始都在尋找一個量變的成長,但是疫情的到來催化了很多先進手段,從軟體的植入、SaaS等,給企業的商業模式帶來了質變的可能,每個創辦人都應該想清楚這個質變可能在哪裡產生,然後快速調整。以我們自己舉例,我們發現今年某些邊緣產業走向主流的速度加快了,只有快速思考佈局和產業切換,才能拿到最終的勝利果實。
  3. 早點拿錢,狠狠地拿錢,現在資金已經變成了一個核心競爭力。不要過分考慮稀釋,而是要把融資確定性放在第一位,拿到充足的子彈,不要因為大意、錯判而斷糧。楊浩湧在億萬學院的課程上給資本的幾個要素做了排序:第一是確定性,第二是金額,之後才是估值和條款,這一點我非常認同。作為一個頭部機構,我經常鼓勵我們的被投公司多拿錢,哪怕有時候會稀釋我們,但這增大了最終贏的可能性。
  4. 要更加的有立場,很多人在今天中美關係惡化的大背景下,對中國未來的發展心裡打鼓。但今天很多公司的高速公路發展,都依賴於中國抵擋住疫情,享受了這個紅利。今天的創辦人需要在很多關鍵點上有更清晰的立場,已經不能再腳踏兩條船,想從兩邊市場都得到好處。優秀的公司要聚焦中國,然後拿下中國市場變成頭部,再去展望海外。
  5. 現在,創辦人個人全方位學習的速度,變得空前重要。創辦人有沒有被身邊的人脈、資金、自身的學習、各式各樣的課程比如億萬學院,所帶來的輸入滋養?可以以三個月為單元,用科學方法加外部回饋,衡量提升質量,持續成長是所有最終做大公司唯一恆定的關鍵點。
  6. 今年一切都需要求變,包括我們自己。經緯今年投資的產業,和過去 2 年~ 3 年相比發生了很大變化,我們對有場景的硬科技、創新藥、企業服務、新消費、 B2B 的模式優化、新製造和進口替代等等領域,從來沒有像現在這樣的集中火力,各個投後小組也都在快速迭代。

市場瞬息萬變,而人要有包容度。如今我們處在一個史無前例的低利率時代,要用新的眼光去看待估值,不能一違背歷史經驗就認為是泡沫。但是也要對大環境的風險保持警惕,刺激政策是否會延續,如果停止刺激後股市是否會很快下行,再傳導到一級市場,這一點一定要警惕,因為結束繁榮的,可能就是繁榮本身。

 

https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/馬斯克-全球第-2-富豪-電動車科技股/

 

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World sees 11,271 new Covid-19 deaths in 24 hours

Author: Tan KW   |  Publish date: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:38 AM


PARIS: The novel coronavirus has killed at least 1,444,426 people since the outbreak emerged in China last December, according to a tally from official sources compiled by AFP at 1100 GMT on Saturday.
 
At least 61,585,860 cases of coronavirus have been registered. Of these, at least 39,186,100 are now considered recovered.
 
The tallies, using data collected by AFP from national authorities and information from the World Health Organisation (WHO), probably reflect only a fraction of the actual number of infections. Many countries are testing only symptomatic or the most serious cases.
 
On Friday, 11,271 new deaths and 633,683 new cases were recorded worldwide. 
 
Based on latest reports, the countries with the most new deaths were the United States with 1,410 new deaths, followed by France with 957 and Italy with 827.
 
The United States is the worst-affected country with 264,866 deaths from 13,092,661 cases. At least 4,947,446 people have been declared recovered.
 
After the US, the hardest-hit countries are Brazil with 171,971 deaths from 6,238,093 cases, India with 136,200 deaths from 9,351,109 cases, Mexico with 104,873 deaths from 1,090,675 cases, and the United Kingdom with 57,551 deaths from 1,589,301 cases.
 
The country with the highest number of deaths compared to its population is Belgium with 141 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by Peru with 109, Spain 96, Italy 89.
 
China – excluding Hong Kong and Macau – has to date declared 86,501 cases, including 4,634 deaths and 81,582 recoveries.
 
Latin America and the Caribbean overall has 444,036 deaths from 12,825,611 cases, Europe 401,516 deaths from 17,634,090 infections, and the United States and Canada 276,722 deaths from 13,448,905 cases.
 
Asia has reported 192,616 deaths from 12,237,667 cases, the Middle East 77,344 deaths from 3,271,732 cases, Africa 51,251 deaths from 2,137,588 cases, and Oceania 941 deaths from 30,271 cases.
 
As a result of corrections by national authorities or late publication of data, the figures updated over the past 24 hours may not correspond exactly to the previous day's tallies.
 
 - AFP
 
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Court to Trump: 'Calling vote unfair doesn't make it so'

Author: Tan KW   |  Publish date: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:37 AM


WASHINGTON: A federal appeals court on Friday flatly dismissed President Donald Trump's claim that the election was unfair and refused to freeze Joe Biden's win in the key state of Pennsylvania.
 
In a scathing review of the Trump campaign's arguments that the president was cheated in his Nov 3 reelection bid, three appeals court judges unanimously said that allegations of unfairness were not supported by evidence.
 
"Charges of unfairness are serious. But calling an election unfair does not make it so," the court said.
 
In appealing a lower court ruling, the Trump campaign claimed discrimination, the judges noted. 
 
"But its alchemy cannot transmute lead into gold," the court said.
 
It was the latest in more than two dozen court defeats around the country for the Trump campaign and Republicans who have alleged fraud and other misconduct contributed to the president's loss.
 
Trump persists in arguing that Biden's clear victory is invalid.
 
"Just so you understand, this election was a fraud," he told reporters on Thursday.
 
Last week, a Pennsylvania state court rejected arguments by Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani that the millions of votes in the state should be thrown out due to fraud.
 
The judge in that case, however, embarrassed Giuliani by forcing him to admit that none of his precise claims before the court involved fraud or anything more than technical issues in overseeing the vote count.
 
On Tuesday, the Pennsylvania government officially certified Biden's victory in the state, and the Trump campaign appealed to federal court to have that certification frozen.
 
But the appeals court said Trump's campaign had nothing substantial to argue.
 
"Its allegations are vague and conclusory," the judges said.
 
"It never alleges that anyone treated the Trump campaign or Trump votes worse than it treated the Biden campaign or Biden votes."
 
With Biden's national lead in the popular vote and the electoral college now virtually unassailable, the court indicated that another appeal, to the US Supreme Court, would go nowhere.
 
"The campaign has already litigated and lost most of these issues," the court said.
 
"The campaign cannot win this lawsuit. It conceded that it is not alleging election fraud."
 
Nevertheless, Jenna Ellis, a Trump campaign lawyer who worked with Giuliani on the case, tweeted their intent to appeal.
 
"The activist judicial machinery in Pennsylvania continues to cover up the allegations of massive fraud ... On to SCOTUS!" she said, referring to the Supreme Court.
 
 - AFP
 
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greedy44444 Sour loser will never admit loss in the election...what a great shame !
29/11/2020 12:30 PM

Protests over security law as France reels from police violence

Author: Tan KW   |  Publish date: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:37 AM


PARIS: Dozens of rallies are planned Saturday against a new French law that would restrict sharing images of police, only days after the country was shaken by footage showing officers beating and racially abusing a black man.
 
The case shocked France with celebrities and politicians alike condemning the officers' actions, and has brought debate over President Emmanuel Macron's law to boiling point.
 
Macron on Friday called the incident an "unacceptable attack" and asked the government to come up with proposals to "fight against discrimination".
 
One of the most controversial elements of the new law is Article 24, which would criminalise the publication of images of on-duty police officers with the intent of harming their "physical or psychological integrity". 
 
It was passed by the National Assembly last week -- although it is awaiting Senate approval -- provoking protests across France.
 
Rally organisers are calling for the article to be withdrawn, claiming that it contradicts the fundamental freedoms of the French republic.
 
"This bill aims to undermine the freedom of the press, the freedom to inform and be informed, the freedom of expression," one of Saturday's protest organisers said.
 
Trade unions are expected to join the demonstrations, with members of the yellow vests -- whose sometimes violent protests in 2018 and 2019 shook the country -- also expected.
 
In Paris, the authorities had demanded that organisers limit the rally to a single location, but on Friday evening officials authorised a march.
 
And in a sign that the government could be preparing to backtrack, Prime Minister Jean Castex announced Friday that he would appoint a commission to redraft Article 24.
 
Under the article, offenders could be sentenced to up to a year in jail, and fined 45,000 euros ($53,000) for sharing images of police officers.
 
The government says the provision is intended to protect officers from doxxing and online abuse, but critics say it is further evidence of the Macron
 
administration's slide to the right.
 
But media unions say it could give police a green light to prevent journalists -- and social media users -- from documenting abuses.
 
They point to the case of music producer Michel Zecler, whose racial abuse and beating at the hands of police was recorded by CCTV and later published online, provoking widespread criticism of the officers' actions.
 
In another instance, journalists on the ground at a French migrant camp in Paris witnessed and recorded police brutality on Monday as the area was cleared.
 
Laurent Fabius, a former prime minister who heads the Constitutional Council, said Saturday that the top court would review the law.
 
"Freedom of opinion, freedom of the press and freedom of demonstration are, for the Council, fundamental freedoms. We will see, after the final vote in parliament, what will be the exact content of this article," he said.
 
In a letter seen by AFP, Paris police chief Didier Lallement wrote to officers to tell them: "In the coming days, the coming weeks... there's no doubt you will face difficulty, doubt, even anger and fear."
 
But he insisted that he could "count on the integrity, sense of honour and ethics" in the force.
 
Protests over police brutality have already taken place elsewhere in country.
 
In the southern city of Toulouse demonstrators took to the streets on Friday evening brandishing placards with slogans such as "police everywhere, justice nowhere".
 
In the western city of Nantes, police said around 3,500 rallied, while organisers put the crowd at 6,000-7,000.
 
Montpellier city officials said 3,800 people were demonstrating Saturday, more than double the number who attended a march a week ago, while organisers said there were 5,000 people.
 
 
 - AFP
 
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India's Modi visits key vaccine facilities as Covid-19 case load surges

Author: Tan KW   |  Publish date: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:33 AM


NEW DELHI - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi toured three of the nation's leading vaccine development and manufacturing sites on Saturday as coronavirus case counts continue to soar.

India has recorded 9.35 million COVID-19 infections, second only to the United States. It reported 41,322 new cases and 485 deaths on Saturday.

The western state of Maharashtra - home to India's financial hub, Mumbai - has been particularly hard hit by the virus. Its tally of 1.68 million cases is higher than countries such as Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom.

Modi conducted a whirlwind three-city tour and visited the Zydus Cadila facility in the western city of Ahmedabad, Bharat Biotech's facilities in the southern hub of Hyderabad and the Serum Institute of India's sprawling campus in the western city of Pune.

In a series of tweets, Modi congratulated the scientists on their progress and assured them of his government's support.

The companies are testing homegrown vaccine options, as well as working on trials of vaccines being developed overseas.

Serum Institute, the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, has partnered with global players including AstraZeneca and Novavax Inc to run domestic trials on their vaccine candidates and produce the vaccines, if they secure approvals.

Zydus Cadila is developing an indigenous DNA-based vaccine, ZyCov-D, while privately-held Bharat Biotech is working on a vaccine candidate called COVAXIN in a tie up with state-run Indian Council of Medical Research.

India hopes to complete final trials on COVAXIN in a month or two, health minister Harsh Vardhan said earlier this month.

 


  - Reuters

 

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Queues at barber shops as France eases coronavirus lockdown

Author: Tan KW   |  Publish date: Sun, 29 Nov 2020, 7:33 AM


PARIS - People eager to get a haircut stood in line outside barber shops and department stores selling gifts and Christmas decorations were busy on Saturday as France partially reopened following a month-long lockdown.

Shops selling non-essential goods such as shoes, clothes and toys reopened in the first easing of a nationwide lockdown that started on Oct. 30 and will remain in place until Dec. 15. Bars and restaurants remain closed till Jan. 20,

"Today we have people who had been waiting for weeks while others are coming now so they can look good for Christmas, as one never know what happens next," Remi Thor, a barber in central Paris, told Reuters.

A barber at J-Coiffeur in western Paris said that despite his online reservation system, people were showing up anyway without booking and were queuing up outside.

"Under current rules, they cannot wait inside," he said.

As a condition for reopening, the government reduced the number of people allowed in shops, a challenge for small retail outlets.

At Printemps - whose 19 luxury department stores have a combined floorspace of 180,000 square metres - the director of the flagship Paris Boulevard Haussmann store, Pierre Pelarrey, said the store was tracking footfall closely.

"We calculate the traffic in real time to make sure we respect the limit on the number inside," he told Reuters.

Many small business owners complained it was hard to operate under the new rules and said traffic was slow as clients were postponing their shopping until Black Friday, which has been delayed by a week to Dec. 4.

Paris deputy mayor Emmanuel Gregoire said on franceinfo radio that the mayor, Anne Hidalgo, would hold talks with retail organisations about allowing them to open on Sundays to catch up on lost sales.

"2020 will be a catastrophic year for everyone, but in order to limit the damage, December will be crucial," he said.

The government has already allowed shops to open till 9 p.m. so they can receive more customers despite the surface limits.

At the Pasteur hospital in the Mediterranean town of Nice, whose intensive care unit is running double its normal bed capacity because of COVID-19, ICU head Carole Ichai said she hoped people would be responsible.

"I hope we will not regret this opening. Shopowners are making an effort, now everyone needs to take their civil responsibility serious," she said.

 


  - Reuters

 

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