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Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Latest post: Tue, 10 May 2022, 4:41 PM

 

Plantation stocks comparison update - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Tue, 10 May 2022, 4:41 PM


Recently all plantation stock prices have been dropping despite CPO just hit a new record high price as shown on the price chart below. The reason is because too many investors over sold to take profit. The more they sold, the price continued to drop which is affecting investors who used margin finance to buy more shares. Margin finance is a double edge sword. It cuts both ways.

At the current price level, no sensible investors would sell. Unfortunately, many investors are forced to sell to meet margin calls. In fact, clever investors should take advantage of the situation to buy at the cheap sale price level.    

There are a few reasons why CPO price continues to shoot higher and higher.

1) Malaysian Ringgit is depreciating as shown on the chart below. All plantation companies will gain additional profit due to the foreign exchange advantage.

2) The Ukraine-Russia conflict has affected Sunflower oil export as Ukraine and Russia produces about 80% of Sunflower oil in the world. In fact, they have missed the planting season for the year.

3) Recently the Indonesian government-imposed CPO export restriction which will continue to push up CPO prices in the world market as shown on the CPO price chart below.  

 

 

Based on FFB production of each company in the last 3 months is the most accurate method for comparison.  

The table below shows the comparison of each company’s 3 months FFB production ÷ current market capitalisation. Subur Tiasa and Jaya Tiasa are the 2 best stocks.  

Name

FFB (ton)

3 months FFB 

Market Cap. Rm.

3 months FFB ÷ market cap

 

Subur Tiasa

23,117

 

 

 

 

 

18,295

64,269

391 million

164

1

 

22,587

 

 

 

 

Jaya Tiasa

55,363

 

 

 

 

 

43,722

151,243

964 million

157

2

 

52,158

 

 

 

 

MHC

10,035

 

 

 

 

 

9,005

29,639

236 million

125

3

 

10,599

 

 

 

 

Sarawak Plant

22,897

 

 

 

 

 

19,126

62,661

784 million

80

4

 

20,038

 

 

 

 

SOP

76,723

 

 

 

 

 

88,787

267,788

3,412 million

78

5

 

102,278

 

 

 

 

Cepatwawasa

6,982

 

 

 

 

 

6,713

21,973

328 million

67

 

 

8,278

 

 

 

 

Ta Ann

45,505

 

 

 

 

 

47,364

154,723

2,536 million

61

6

 

61,854

 

 

 

 

Hap Seng

43,653

 

 

 

 

 

40,628

136,468

2,392 million

57

8

 

52,187

 

 

 

 

Teck Guan

1,0035

 

 

 

 

 

884

3,062

64 million

48

9

 

1,138

 

 

 

 

At the current price level, no sensible investors would sell. Unfortunately, many investors are forced to sell to meet margin calls. In fact, clever investors should take advantage of the situation to buy at cheap sale price level.    

 

 

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vcinvestor when will we see the inevitable "Subur Tiasa is rubbish" post? My bet is the week of 23-27th May. Come come PM me to place your bets
10/05/2022 4:55 PM
OnTime 4th reason: the world is flooded with some much fiat money that prices of all goods must go up.
10/05/2022 6:54 PM
calvintaneng Best buys are these

Sop
Tsh resources
Taann
Jtiasa
Thplant
Bplant
Hs plant
Simedarby plant
Ioi corp
Fgv
11/05/2022 12:09 AM
gladiator Cannot compare like this some plantation companies sell at spot price example Sop, Sarawak plantation, Taann.
11/05/2022 1:27 PM
blackgold77 the inevitable post will be... "XXX has a trap..." or "Why I sold XXX to buy <another theme>..."
11/05/2022 1:41 PM
bosskufanboy unclekyy is my idol, kakakaka
11/05/2022 2:56 PM
speakup look like many ppl sell Plantation swap to O&G
12/05/2022 9:19 AM
speakup panic buying @ hengyuan, but plantations no power
12/05/2022 9:20 AM
Ravi Kumar LOL Follow UNCLE TO HOLLAND!!!! https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/subur-tiasa-falls-much-5-after-liabilities-exceeded-current-assets?type=malaysia and still want to keep
12/05/2022 11:16 AM
stockraider Lu tau boh ??

At the moment plantation stock are price modestly using sustainable cpo price of Rm 4000 mah!

With the current price above Rm 6000, even if indonesia comeback to the export mkt....that will not affect plantation share price bcos it is not overvalue....as it is not value base on cpo rm 6000 mah!
12/05/2022 11:48 AM
TIticamara https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/05/11/msia-unable-to-cash-in-on-rising-palm-oil-prices
12/05/2022 5:36 PM
subwayzzz Too bad KYY got stuck in subur. KYY Should have bought tons in sop or taann!
12/05/2022 7:32 PM
subwayzzz High ffb, kernel harvests and cpo will not translate into profitability.

Don’t believe ? Just read the report of the url Ravi Kumar posted and I agree with the report. Minus the optimistic part how the management views their future performance.
12/05/2022 7:42 PM
sensonic I AM SO HAPPY OUR MARKET PERFORM BETTER THAN EXPECTED. SO HAPPY FOR MOST MARKET PARTICIPANTS.
12/05/2022 10:07 PM

Palm Oil Price hit a new record - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Mon, 9 May 2022, 9:33 AM


Investors must examine the 5-year palm oil price chart below carefully to make the right investment decision. It shows that palm oil was selling around RM 2,500 per ton for many years before. It began to shoot up from April 2020 to close at Rm 7,385.00 per ton on 5 May 2022. In the last 2 years, it has been breaking its old record to make new record high price so often.

 

What is the right investment decision? All plantation stocks have been going up higher and higher in the last few months and many less informed investors have been selling to take profit. In my opinion, investors should not sell plantation stocks so quickly because high palm oil price will be maintained for at least in the next 2 quarters. All plantation companies should report higher profit for their first quarter ending March which should announced before the end of this month, May. You should just wait patiently.

3 factors to support high palm oil price:

1) Indonesia’s palm oil export ban.

2) Malaysian Ringgit depreciation as shown \

on the US$ exchange to Ringgit chart below. All plantation companies will make additional profit due to foreign exchange advantage. 

 

3) The Ukraine-Russia conflict has affected Sunflower oil export as Ukraine and Russia produces about 80% of Sunflower oil in the world. In fact, they have missed the planting season for the year.

Subur Tiasa is the best plantation stock to buy:

A few days ago, I rang Subur Tiasa Head Office, telephone number 084-211555 to verify its latest earning per share (EPS) of 16.15 sen. Its accountant told me that 16.15 EPS was for 2 months because the company wanted to change its financial year from ending in July to December. Subur Tiasa’s EPS should be adjusted for 3 months to compare it with other plantation stocks. Subur Tiasa’s EPS for 3 months should be 16.15 ÷ 2 X 3= 24.2 sen. 

Comparison plantation stocks based on historical PE ratio which is too conservative because all plantation companies should be making and more profit in the next few quarters. 

Name

Price Rm

Latest EPS

Latest EPS X4

Price ÷EPS X4

Subur

2.10

24.2

96.8

2.17

Cepat

1.13

7.74

31.0

3.6

SOP

6.45

36.44

Rm1.56

4.1

Jaya Tiasa

1.05

5.28

21.12

5.0

Sarawak Pl

2.96

11.66

46.6

6.4

Hap Seng

3.13

11.79

47.2

6.6

Ta Ann

6.03

21.8

82.2

7.2

Subur Tiasa is the cheapest as shown above.

 

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skoh888 please be honest....cpo price came out 10 % last week so its 10% from the all time high which is significant. get your facts straight and do not mislead readers
09/05/2022 12:38 PM
skoh888 the reason why plantation stocks are selling off is because we are entering peak production season. Any CPO trader can tell you that. So if we are entering high production season, the market would also discount the potential of peak earnings soon. Either way just be mindful that there is no sure thing in the markets and be mindful if someone tells you so
09/05/2022 12:42 PM
007007 Why the market is giving Subur Tiasa a very low PE ratio rating is
bcos the company ' s audited accounts are qualified by the auditors with concerns over it's bad financial situation.
09/05/2022 1:08 PM
007007 For the auditors of Subur to qualify it's audited accounts bcos it's current liabilities far exceed it's current assets indicates financial solvency issues in the future.
09/05/2022 1:13 PM
maf1964 Ah koon prmoting palm oil shares cos he and his stoopid niece must have bought a lot and want to dispose them for a super profit but problem is that last 1-2 weeks, palm oil shares dropping heavily
09/05/2022 7:46 PM
subwayzzz ST’s financial statements were never beautiful for such a long time. Why do you promote ST ?
09/05/2022 7:49 PM
gemfinder Kyy late to enter n oso late to sell... trapped gao gao
09/05/2022 11:27 PM
whpang Ah koon fish ball liao.
ask him sell his ball.
09/05/2022 11:36 PM
subwayzzz https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/malaysias-april-palm-oil-exports-fell-171-pct-sgs-2673861

no matter how high the price is, if the volume is down it means less revenue. 17% !!!!!!
SOP and TAANN are in better position than SUBUR. Avoid SUBUR and its siblings at all cost and don't catch a falling knife!
10/05/2022 8:57 AM
amateurJR Uncle desperate liao. Haha
10/05/2022 11:45 AM
adikhantamking Still want lie ur self hahahaha
10/05/2022 1:45 PM
emsvsi Blog: Hengyuan’s profit growth is doubtful - Koon Yew Yin

Posted by emsvsi > May 7, 2022 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Koon,

It is clear that you are selling oil palm and buying Heng Yuan. However you must remember what happened in the past in Heng Yuan where you and many others were burnt badly. Remember, what goes up must come down. Especially a cyclical stock like Heng Yuan. All the promoters will disappear when Heng Yuan crashes to the depths of the world, and when the 'crack spread' and one off inventory gains turn to losses

Sincerely,
EMSVSI
10/05/2022 2:41 PM
nicholas99 uncle so desperate now. don't buy. run..
10/05/2022 4:24 PM
sensonic I AM SO HAPPY OUR MARKET PERFORM BETTER THAN EXPECTED. SO HAPPY FOR MOST MARKET PARTICIPANTS.
10/05/2022 10:19 PM
i3lurker buy Bplant

silly Uncle did not buy Bplant
10/05/2022 11:40 PM
calvintaneng Bplant going to declare another good dividend

Hs plant and Tsh resources as well will declare dividend

Sop, Taann, Simedarby plant , Thplant and ioi corp all are good

Just buy a basket of all and hold till December 2022 to earn 200% to 300%
11/05/2022 12:13 AM
Mabel Yes Lah

Plantation is your insurance to hedges.
Fantastic profits.. Listen to Calvin. He knows what his talking..
11/05/2022 1:35 PM
stockraider Lu tau boh ??

At the moment plantation stock are price modestly using sustainable cpo price of Rm 4000 mah!

With the current price above Rm 6000, even if indonesia comeback to the export mkt....that will not affect plantation share price bcos it is not overvalue....as it is not value base on cpo rm 6000 mah!
12/05/2022 11:53 AM

Hengyuan’s profit growth is doubtful - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Sat, 7 May 2022, 11:42 AM


Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Russia is one of the largest petroleum producers in the world. Due to sanctions on Russia, oil and gas prices have sky rocked in Europe as shown on the chart below.

 

In Malaysia petrol and gas prices have not gone up as shown on the chart above.

Description of Hengyuan:

Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd is engaged in refining and manufacturing of petroleum products in Malaysia. The company’s operating units in its refinery consist of two crude distillers, a long residue catalytic cracker, two naptha treaters and a merox plant, two reformers, and a gasoil treatment plant. Its product portfolio consists of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, fuel oil components, and chemical feedstocks like light naphtha and propylene. Its segment consists of manufacturing of petroleum products with all of the operations in Malaysia. Majority of its revenue is derived from the sale of refined petroleum products.

Unfortunately, many less informed investors rushed to buy Hengyuan Refining and push up its share price as shown on the price chart below. 

Hengyuan buys crude oil from Petronas to produce various petroleum products for sale.

 

Hengyuan reported 59.93 sen EPS for the quarter ending December and 18.01 sen loss for the quarter ending September. How could it lose money in its previous quarter?

 

It made unprecedented profit because Hengyuan bought the crude oil when the price was low as shown on the price chart above. The oil in its storage tanks have appreciated in value.

In my opinion, Hengyuan’s profit growth prospect is doubtful because Petronas being one of the largest petroleum producers in the world, will also increase its selling price.

 

Labels: HENGYUAN
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probability What would you need to justify a TP of RM 12 with PE 5?
.......................................................

(PE 5 is conservative considering its just the beginning of golden age for refinery now)

If you see Q4 21'results which delivered EPS of 60 cents. You only need such performance on average every quarter for TP of RM 12 with PE5.

During this quarter, the Gross Profit added with other Operating Gains was MYR 309m.

This is the gross refining margin you need with a stable oil price (not dropping) in order to deliver EPS of 60 cents per quarter as you have not even subtracted the manufacturing cost.

Lets see what is the average crack spread you would need to deliver the above earnings going forward:

Barrels processed / sold per Qtr average 10.5 m

Gross refining margin per barrel needed:

= ( MYR 309 ) * (1/4.2) / (10.5 m barrels)
= USD 7.0/brl

Hope with the above people will realize its not that hard to hit RM 12 with current refining margin exceeding USD 20 / brl
07/05/2022 12:00 PM
probability uncle Koon, for your reading pleasure:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-05-07-story-h1622469652-Hengyuan_2_pictures_says_a_thousand_word.jsp
07/05/2022 12:02 PM
gemfinder Yes very doubtful. Sell when good px
07/05/2022 12:09 PM
probability Frequently asked questions on refinery like HRC for investors knowledge:

https://investor.esso.co.th/en/frequently-asked-questions

Why are refined product prices set based on singapore market prices?
.........

Oil is a commodity product in a market which is highly competitive. Pricing policy or production and sale strategies of a market player can impact the overall market as the other players may consequently make price adjustments in order to maintain their competitiveness. Therefore, the to-be reference oil price should be determined by demand and supply capabilities in free markets within a given proximity. This approach which is similar to what is done with agricultural goods such as fruit reference prices at Tai market or rice reference prices at Kumnun Song market.

The three major oil trading regions are North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. The AP trading hub is in Singapore as it is the biggest exporting country in the region. Singapore reference prices are not refined product prices set by Singapore government or refineries. They essentially are the prices of products which are traded in Singapore by oil traders in the region.

Thailand is in the AP region and located near Singapore; therefore, it is logical that Singapore oil prices are used as reference prices. Singapore oil prices not only reflect equilibrium prices of free markets in the region but also globally align with the other regional trading hubs.
07/05/2022 12:31 PM
SecretOne HengYuan (and PetronM) share price is going up NOT because of high oil price. If that's the case, it would have gone up many months ago.

Hengyuan (and PetronM) share price is going up because restriction has been relaxed and people are not starting to utilize more petrol. Simple as that.
07/05/2022 12:39 PM
probability The 5 years crude sourcing from Shell is over by 22 Dec 2021, I believe Hengyuan being a smart China management would have sourced crude oil from Russia:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/the-fossil-fuel-companies-profiting-from-europes-oil-trade-with-russia/

The company’s refining margins jumped to staggering levels in March, according to media reports.

Compared to the previous ten-year record of $9.3 per barrel on refined products, MOL earned $34.9 per barrel of oil refined in March.

This is largely due to the much lower price of the Russian export oil blend (REBCO) used in MOL’s refineries compared to other types of oil.
07/05/2022 12:49 PM
Tobby Hihihaha! Grandpa Koon still doesn't know what he is talking about! Maybe once Hengyuan hit RM20, he will make a uturn and promote it aggressively! Grandpa Koon is always late for the party anyway!
07/05/2022 12:50 PM
probability The beauty is that their margin (as a minimum) are fixed against Brent at Means of Platts Singapore for the next 5 years while they are free to source crude from anyone to expand it....

its like there is a minimum margin but no maximum

simply brilliant!
07/05/2022 12:55 PM
emsvsi Dear Mr Koon,

It is clear that you are selling oil palm and buying Heng Yuan. However you must remember what happened in the past in Heng Yuan where you and many others were burnt badly. Remember, what goes up must come down. Especially a cyclical stock like Heng Yuan. All the promoters will disappear when Heng Yuan crashes to the depths of the world, and when the 'crack spread' and one off inventory gains turn to losses

Sincerely,
EMSVSI
07/05/2022 1:00 PM
probability Hurricane Harvey is a temporary blip in 2017...it is incomparable to whats happening now

A new golden age of oil refiners

https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/content/articles/equities/a-new-golden-age-of-oil-refiners-04052022

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/Crackspreads/2022-05-06-story-h1622444383-Why_crack_spreads_for_refined_oil_products_have_NOT_peaked.jsp

Posted by emsvsi > May 7, 2022 1:00 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Koon,

It is clear that you are selling oil palm and buying Heng Yuan. However you must remember what happened in the past in Heng Yuan where you and many others were burnt badly. Remember, what goes up must come down. Especially a cyclical stock like Heng Yuan. All the promoters will disappear when Heng Yuan crashes to the depths of the world, and when the 'crack spread' and one off inventory gains turn to losses

Sincerely,
EMSVSI
07/05/2022 1:05 PM
Johnzhang Uncle Koon make himself looks very stvpid with his stvpid reasoning!
07/05/2022 1:15 PM
David Gunter Someone should remind damn old fox by writing 50 reasons never to listen to KYY as he got f Ed in Jake’s, Dayang, TG etc
07/05/2022 2:13 PM
StartOfTheBull People were talking that Heng Yuan would touch RM30 since late 2020 but it didn't happen. Will it happen this time around? It is very controversial indeed.
07/05/2022 2:16 PM
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07/05/2022 2:44 PM
supersinginvestor In hengyuan we trust :-)))
07/05/2022 4:01 PM
Jokers2020 lowest HY can drop will be at 3.50 level..currently ride on the profit slowly sell few lots to collect profit and look for other stock which will spike up
07/05/2022 5:45 PM
PureBULL ... Vincent Tan, [2022-05-06 7:36 PM]
[In reply to Vincent Tan]
After Raya sales for this year the current price of D&O 3.66, Inari 2.65, Greatec 3.71, MPI 30.08...

PureBULL >>>, [2022-05-07 4:20 AM]
[In reply to Vincent Tan]
TECH BIZ RULES OUR 1 WORLD

I agreed more with U with that list of best TECH stocks in our lovely msia.
many BTC talents became RICH in corporate msia we know.
going forward, the highly smart n cleverly educated will shine prosperously.,.

n those from CINA will be the world top scorers!

TREND IS OUR FRIEND = the simplest words for us all to do well in stock.investing on the long haul.
D&O my top favorite tech is so purebearish like NASDAQ:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lM4giows/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/51YPzIWq/

FEAR of FED increasing interest rates in every FOMC meet in 2022 due to hyper inflation =
i.e. causing lots of selling in Bonds n Stocks in the US mkt = there r tonnes of CASH awaiting to be spent on an asset class soon!

It has to be GROWTH.investing THEMES for the long term CORE holding, i.e. EV n ES, the 2 all NEW huge gigantic biz of the world.,.
n play afool with VALUE.investing on short term play of 1 to 2 QR max like mighty gloves in 2020.,.
07/05/2022 6:36 PM
wallstreetrookie #BanKoonYewYin from i3investor forum
07/05/2022 8:14 PM
wallstreetrookie The most annoying person on i3investor
07/05/2022 8:15 PM
probability Shandong-based independent refinery buying Russian crude discounted $35 per barrel against Brent crude

MAY 4 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/4f277a24-d681-421a-9c94-29d6fd448b20

China’s independent refiners have been discreetly buying Russian oil at steep discounts as western countries suspend their own purchases and explore potential embargoes because of the war in Ukraine.

An official at a Shandong-based independent refinery said it had not publicly reported deals with Russian oil suppliers since the Ukraine war started in order to avoid attracting scrutiny and being hit by US sanctions.

The official added that the refinery had taken over some of the purchase quota for Russian crude from state-owned commodity trading firms, which are seen to represent Beijing and have mostly declined to sign new supply contracts.

Many western companies are self-sanctioning or struggling to secure the insurance, shipping or financing needed to buy Russia’s commodity exports, raising expectations that energy-hungry China will step in and buy the unsold barrels.

The purchases from China’s independent refineries reveal how some importers are bypassing traditional routes to access cheap Russian oil, helping Beijing maintain a low profile as the west barrages Moscow with sanctions.

.......


Brian Gallagher, head of investor relations at Belgian tanker group Euronav, said the consolidation of Russia oil on to larger ships for transport to Asia was “unusual”. But with Urals discounted $35 per barrel against Brent crude, he added that Chinese refineries were motivated to buy.
07/05/2022 8:47 PM
smartly very simple...
1. high profit margin (high Crack Spread)
2. high inventory level (high oil price)
3. high demand (restriction lifted)
4. high cost, high profit loh but better margin now

so, why doubtful ?
07/05/2022 9:56 PM
joehoong93 You think Year 2017 have cheap crude oil buy?

And make the earning 200m and 300m per quarter?

Mislead people again?
07/05/2022 11:52 PM
Johnzhang
KYY is damn ignorant that it is the Malaysian government paying the difference between international price and local subsidized price .
It is going to cost the government over RM28 bil as crude stay well above usd 100 .
——————————
Malaysia's 2022 petroleum subsidy to rise to RM28b from RM11b in 2021 if crude oil prices remain above US$100/barrel — Tengku Zafrul
08/05/2022 6:40 AM
abc333 Petronas being one of the largest petroleum producers in the world, will also increase its selling price. >>>If Hengyuan bought 109.7/barrel from petronas, she will sell 135/barrel. KYY know nothing about crack spread? I dont think so, He purposely ignore the crack spread and inventory gain.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mgDGRZGu/?symbol=NYMEX%3ACL1%21
Oil enjoy a marvelous uptrend , from the chart , obviously Hengyuan will made huge profit from the inventory gain.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mgDGRZGu/?symbol=NYMEX%3ACL1%21

and please check the crack spread , is record high.

PAT 900 M is doubtful , but 300 m to 800 m is certain.
08/05/2022 9:17 AM
Johnzhang Below is what KYY wrote in 2017. He explained how crack spread determines profitability of a refinery. Now he said doubtful. That’s how cunning he can be !
————————————
Hengyuan: Detailed explanation of its profit margin or crack spread

admin admin
4 years ago
I have written several articles recommending buy on Hengyuan which you can find on my blog. Those who have bought should be laughing and some wanted to know why I am so bullish to buy Hengyuan.

I am not asking you to buy to push up the price to make me richer because based on the huge volume traded daily, obviously big financial institutions are buying aggressively. These financial institutional investors have their experts to analyse the stock in detailed before they buy.

Let me try to give you a clearly understanding of Hengyuan’s business operation.

Hengyuan is in the oil refinery business. It buys crude oil to refine it into several types of oil products which are selling at different prices. The most expensive is high grade petroleum and the cheapest is bitumen tar for the road surface.

Its profit essentially depends on its margin of profit or crack spread.

Crack spread is a term used on the oil industry and futures trading for the differential between the price of crude oil and petroleum products extracted from it. The spread approximates the profit margin that an oil refinery can expect to make by “cracking” the long-chain hydrocarbons of crude oil into useful shorter-chain petroleum products.

In the futures markets, the “crack spread” is a specific spread trade involving simultaneously buying and selling contracts in crude oil and one or more derivative products, typically gasoline and heating oil. Oil refineries may trade a crack spread to hedge the price risk of their operations, while speculators attempt to profit from changes in the oil/gasoline price differential.

Factors affecting the crack spread

One of the most important factors affecting the crack spread is the relative proportion of various petroleum products produced by a refinery. Refineries produce many products from crude oil, including gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, asphalt and others. To some degree, the proportion of each product produced can be varied in order to suit the demands of the local market. Regional differences in the demand for each refined product depend upon the relative demand for fuel for heating, cooking or transportation purposes. Within a region, there can also be seasonal differences in demand for heating fuel versus transportation fuel.

The mix of refined products is also affected by the particular blend of crude oil feedstock processed by a refinery, and by the capabilities of the refinery. Heavier crude oils contain a higher proportion of heavy hydrocarbons composed of longer carbon chains. As a result, heavy crude oil is more difficult to refine into lighter products such as gasoline. A refinery using less sophisticated processes will be constrained in its ability to optimize its mix of refined products when processing heavy oil.

The crack spread chart

The chart below shows Hengyuan’s crack spread which has been low in the 1st half year and is improving for the 2nd half year.

As a result, its 1st half year eps was only Rm 1.20, as announced its 3nd quarter was Rm 1.21 and 4th quarter should be better than the 3rd quarter. Assuming its 4th quarter eps is Rm 1.30, its total eps for the year will be Rm 3.71 per share.

Assuming it will be selling at P/E 5, the price should be Rm 18 per share, when its 4th quarter result is announced before the end of February 2018. Can you find another stock with similar quality selling P/E 5?
08/05/2022 1:29 PM
probability Indonesia’s Pertamina eyes cheaper Russian oil

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/399254/indonesias-pertamina-eyes-cheaper-russian-oil/


“Politically, there’s no problem as long as the company we are dealing with was not sanctioned. We have also discussed the payment arrangement, which may go through India,” she told parliament members.

Indonesia holds the G20 presidency this year and has said it will remain neutral amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has sparked the biggest humanitarian and geopolitical crisis in Europe since World War Two. The Indonesian government has raised concerns about the invasion but stopped short of condemning it.
08/05/2022 3:28 PM
probability SUPERB NEWS! this is truely fantastic for Hengyuan...

They can guzzle all the RUSSIAN CRUDE they want!!

....................

Malaysia does not recognise unilateral sanctions, remains non-aligned to any side

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/05/08/saifuddin-malaysia-does-not-recognise-unilateral-sanctions-remains-non-alig/2057677
08/05/2022 3:28 PM
Mr NoNeedToStudy Hahaha uncle Koontz don't rush in later with margin All in rm30 again ah then
08/05/2022 4:47 PM
lionel messi Be careful. Uncle Koon wants to buy cheap. That's why giving talking nonsense hoping to bring the price down. Always do opposite what he says. Talking from his own self interest.
08/05/2022 4:50 PM
888STOCK888 When he say lousy things about a share, he is accumulating..
When he promote something, he is actually selling.... lol...
First said Jaya Tiasa is the best.... now say Subur Tiasa is the best... Ding donging the blind followers...

Now say Hengyuan’s profit growth is doubtful..... (accumulating???)...then when Hengyuan's result out in few weeks time he will write...."why I buy Hengyuan" or "why I sia lang hengyuan"... by the time the profit announce the price is about RM12.00??? =D

LOL.....

Please read his blog carefully and read between the lines..... "It made unprecedented profit because Hengyuan bought the crude oil when the price was low as shown on the price chart above. The oil in its storage tanks have appreciated in value."

Hengyuan share price hits RM18 back in 2017/2018 when oil price was $60++

Now oil price is constantly trading above $100, what's the new target price? RM38??? =D
08/05/2022 5:38 PM
zeroxweng reverse thinking
08/05/2022 7:49 PM
speakup will only drop if KYY say "i sold off all plantations to buy hengyuan"
09/05/2022 2:55 PM
paperplane 反指标出来了。对着干就是了。呵呵
09/05/2022 4:53 PM
Tobby Poor Grandpa Koon! Totally miss the megaship Hengyuan!
09/05/2022 4:53 PM
probability Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday the gap between crude prices and prices for jet fuel, diesel and gasoline was around 60% in some cases due to lack of investment in refining capacity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-energy-minister-says-gap-between-crude-prices-fuel-mobility-prices-around-2022-05-09/
09/05/2022 10:56 PM
sparrow https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/refinery-margin-tracker-record-high-global-diesel-cracks-propel-margins-upward/
12/05/2022 2:27 PM

Subur Tiasa is cheapest based on PE - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Fri, 6 May 2022, 6:08 PM


Yesterday I rang Subur Tiasa Head Office, telephone number 084-211555 to verify its latest earning per share (EPS) of 16.15 sen. Its accountant told me that 16.15 EPS was for 2 months because the company wanted to change its financial year from ending in July to December. Subur Tiasa’s EPS should be adjusted for 3 months to compare it with other plantation stocks. Subur Tiasa’s EPS for 3 months should be 16.15 ÷ 2 X 3= 24.2 sen.  

Comparison plantation stocks based on PE

Name

Price Rm

Latest EPS

Latest EPS X4

Price ÷EPS X4

Subur

2.10

24.2

96.8

2.17

Cepat

1.17

7.74

31.0

3.8

SOP

6.48

36.44

Rm1.56

4.2

Jaya Tiasa

1.08

5.28

21.12

5.1

Sarawak Pl

3.02

11.66

46.6

6.5

Hap Seng

3.14

11.79

47.2

6.7

Ta Ann

5.91

21.8

82.2

7.2

In fact, due to Indonesia’s palm oil export ban CPO price is making a new record high price as shown on the chart below. Moreover, Malaysian Ringgit depreciation as shown on the US$ exchange to Ringgit chart below, all plantation companies should report increasing profit in the next few quarters.

 

 

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Pinky If got nothing new to say keep quiet la, Mr Broken Record
06/05/2022 8:31 PM
ahbah All here got freedom of opinion, please.
07/05/2022 4:20 PM

Important Life Lessons - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Thu, 5 May 2022, 5:35 PM


We often let the little frustrations of each day stop us from appreciating life in the present moment. But, as we grow older, we learn to detach ourselves from the drama and the chaos we once engaged in. As we age, we become humbler about life and are less willing to spend our time on vain things. Now that I am 89, here are some important life lessons that I have learned:


1. Day-to-day frustrations are inevitable: Very rarely do we have full control of all situations. And, as stressful as it may be, what's bothering us so much today won't matter a month from now. And, with age, we know this for certain. 

Words of wisdom: Let go of the nonsense, stay positive, and move forward with your life.

2. How perfect everything ought to be: There's a big difference between reasonable striving and perfectionism. Perfectionism causes you unnecessary stress and anxiety, created by the superficial need to get it right. But getting lost in striving to achieve perfection prevents you from getting anything worthwhile done.

Words of wisdom: Let go of the fantasies, and the perfect moments you've made yourself believe.

3. The intricacies of what's in it for you: With age, you learn that you keep nothing in this life until you give it away first. This can be applied to knowledge, money, forgiveness, service, love, tolerance, acceptance and so on. It's easy to forget that giving opens us up to grace.

Words of wisdom: Give, in order to receive.

4. The pressure of acting immediately: While getting things done hurriedly may seem better when we are younger, in time we come to realize the importance of slow and steady work. In addition, we often believe that the big things are what will make a difference but overlook the fact that a simple smile can brighten somebody else's day. 

Words of wisdom: You cannot plant a seed and expect it to become a flower overnight. 

5. Wanting expensive physical possessions: Later in life, we learn to pay less attention to physical possessions that used to seem so vital.

Words of wisdom: The things you really want cannot be bought.

6. Winning approval from others: The strength of your conviction is what determines your level of personal success in the long run, not the number of people who agree with the things you do. 

Words of Wisdom: Follow the path that promises your heart genuine peace.

7. The selfish things others say and do: If we had to take everything personally, we would be offended for the rest of our days. When you detach yourself from other people's antics you feel free.

Words of wisdom: The way people treat you is their problem. How you react is yours. 

8. Judging others for their shortcomings: We all have days where we are not our best. But the older we get, the more we come to realize how vital it is to give others the break that they deserve, and hope that they too will do the same on our own bad days. Truth be told, we never really know what someone has been through, or what they're going through today.

Words of wisdom: Be kind, generous, and respectful, then be on your way.

9. Blaming others: A happy person never evades responsibility or blames and points fingers at others, making excuses for their unsatisfying life. Happiness is a byproduct of your own thinking, beliefs, attitudes, character, and behavior.

Words of wisdom: You alone are responsible for how your life will unfold.

10. The shallow relationships that make you feel more popular: While acquaintances are nice to have, and friendliness is a good quality, dedicate your time to those that matter most.

Words of wisdom: Your time is limited. Sooner or later you want to be around the few people who make you smile for the right reasons.

11. Distant future possibilities: As we age, it becomes inevitably clear that we have more time behind us and less in front of us. As a result, the distant future gradually has less value to us on a personal level. The secret to happiness and peace is letting this moment be what it is, instead of what you think it should be. Then make the best of it.

Words of wisdom: Some people wait all day for 5pm, all week for Friday, all year for the holidays and all their lives for happiness. Don't allow yourself to become one of these people.

12. Society's obsession with outer beauty: As we get older, what we look like on the outside becomes less of an issue. The primary point of interest lies on who we've become on the inside. Eventually, we come to realize that beauty has almost nothing to do with looks.

Words of wisdom: Beauty lies in how we make others feel about themselves and how we feel about ourselves.  

 

  3 people like this.
 
emsvsi Dear Mr Koon,

At least credit the source

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/life-lessons-manas-jain/?trk=mp-reader-card
06/05/2022 5:25 PM
Tobby Emsvsi! Hihihaha! Please be gentle with 90 year old superinvestor! At least Grandpa Koon is better than US president Biden!
06/05/2022 5:40 PM
sensonic I AM SO HAPPY OUR MARKET PERFORM BETTER THAN EXPECTED. SO HAPPY FOR MOST MARKET PARTICIPANTS.
06/05/2022 10:38 PM
Excel Properties Great stuff again Uncle Koon. Thanks for sharing. All the love from Holland ;)
07/05/2022 11:53 AM

Shall I sell Plantation Stock? When will CPO price drop? - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Thu, 5 May 2022, 11:42 AM


These are the 2 most important questions; all investors want to know.

There are 2 basic fundamental principles for investing:

1) Among all the stock selection criteria such as NTA, cash flow, debt or healthy balance sheet etc profit growth prospect is the most powerful catalyst to push up share price.

Due to the CPO record high price, all plantation companies have reported increasing profit in the last few quarters. All plantation stocks are growth stocks. Do not sell good growth stocks.    

The most important question is “When will CPO price drop?”

Ukraine-Russia conflict:

Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Ukraine has a population of 44 million people. Over 5.5 million refugees have since left Ukraine, while an estimated 7.7 million people had been displaced within the country by 21 April. 90% of Ukrainian refugees are women and children. In fact, most of the farmers have joined the army to fight Russia.

 

As a result, Sunflower oil production will be affected for a long time. In fact, they have missed the planting season for the year.

Ukraine and Russia are the major producers of the world’s sunflower oil, accounting for 7.3 and 5.8 million MT respectively in 2020. Together these two countries account for nearly 73% of the export trade in sunflower oil. In terms of overall oils and fats consumption, sunflower oil typically accounts for about 9% of global consumption and almost the entire quantum is used as a food commodity.

As a result, Sunflower Oil price has been shooting up due to supply shortage which will support CPO price for at least one more year.

CPO price chart:

 

As I have said, the Ukrainians have missed the planting season for the year which will push up CPO price for another year at least. CPO price has peaked recently. Due to the Ukraine war CPO price will soon break the old record high and establish a new historical record high.

In fact, CPO price has been below Rm 3,000 for decades. Currently, CPO price is above Rm 6,000. All plantation companies should be able to report higher profit for the quarter ending March which should be announced before the end of May, another 2 or 3 weeks.  

2nd Fundamental Principle for investing is based on price charts:

Price charts cannot lie. Do not sell up-trending stocks. The price charts for all plantation stocks are up trending; for examples, Subur Tiasa and SOP as shown below. 

 

 

The above is the 5 years KLCI chart which is almost at its trough as many investors have sold their holdings and waiting at the side line. Clever investors should take advantage of this situation to buy plantation stocks. In my opinion, the best plantation stock to buy is Subur Tiasa.

For your information, you can see from Subur Tiasa’s 2021 annual report that famous Dr Neoh Soon Kean of Dynaquest Sdn Bhd is one of the 30 largest shareholders.   

 

Labels: SUBUR, SOP, JTIASA
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speakup look like a lot ppl sell plantations swap to oil & gas like Hengyuan & Petron
05/05/2022 2:25 PM
speakup all sell plantations buy Hengyuan & Petron, no wonder panic buying
05/05/2022 2:46 PM
MuttsInvestor Can tell me 4D number for this Sat/Sun coming out from Magnum ??
05/05/2022 3:07 PM
OnTime if he can I will call him a great oracle!
05/05/2022 3:11 PM
VTrade Kyy know need to sell plantation.
Indonesia untung many
05/05/2022 5:36 PM
emsvsi Dear Mr Koon,

Why is it every time you recommend a stock it falls? Perhaps you need to change your investing techniques. The best stock selection method will always be Value Investing. And the best Value + Growth + Reopening stock is Genting (3182) with an NTA=RM8.26 you can invest and sleep soundly without promoting it non-stop as if the world is coming to an end

Sincerely,
emsvsi
05/05/2022 6:02 PM
Jonathan Keung A good stock need not be promoted. Value will find its way up
05/05/2022 9:59 PM
calvintaneng Sell all others and Buy palm oil shares are these are going up into palm oil Superbull

1. Sell all Tech stocks
Fed raise interest rate is the final straw that breaks the camel's back

2. Gloves will be reporting horrible result and losses

3. Steel will only see high receivables (Iou) that turn into bad debt

By this and August Results All will shiver as Collapse of Tech and common stocks will cause panic into safety of palm oil
05/05/2022 10:58 PM
calvintaneng good stocks not promoted syndicates will promote bad stocks to trap newbies

Dr Neoh Soon Kean also Top 30 of

Jtiasa
Wtk
Sop
Thplant
05/05/2022 11:03 PM
amateurJR This yr Calin yr again after a quiet 2021
06/05/2022 4:12 PM
sensonic I AM SO HAPPY OUR MARKET PERFORM BETTER THAN EXPECTED. SO HAPPY FOR MOST MARKET PARTICIPANTS.
06/05/2022 10:38 PM
ahbah " All plantation stocks are growth stocks. " Yes Sir kyy.
07/05/2022 4:16 PM
VTrade Kyy always know
08/05/2022 10:50 AM


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