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Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Latest post: Wed, 21 Apr 2021, 11:40 AM

 

TA is more important than FA - Koon Yew Yin

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Technical analysis take preference over Financial analysis.

Since the Covid 19 pandemic began about 1 year ago, the demand for gloves far exceeds supply. As a result, all the glove makers can eaily increase their selling prices to make more and more profit which should be reflected on their share prices. Initially all their share prices went up since the Covid 19 began.  Unfortunately, for no good reason, their share prices have been dropping in the last 4 months. It defies investment logic. This phenomena is so rediculous.

Supermax’s 1st quarter ending September EPS was 30.58 sen. Its 2nd quarter ending Dec was 41.14 sen, totalling 71.72 sen for 1st half year. Even if the company cannot increase its selling price, its 3rd quarter EPS will be 41.14 sen and 4th quarter EPS will be 41.14 sen. Its annual EPS will be Rm 1.54. Based on PE 10, Supermax should be selling Rm 15.40 per share. Among all the glove stocks, Supermax has the best profit growth rate.

The above price chart for Supermax shows that it dropped from Rm 10.70 on 19 Oct to close at Rm 5.04, a drop more than 50% in the last 4 months despite its excellent profit growth rate.

Investors must remember that price chart takes preference over fundamtal analysis. You must sell as soon as the price chart is showing a down trend. Never buy a down trending stock even if its fundamental quality is excellent.

I learned a very expensive lesson. On hindsight, if I started to sell as soon as the price start to drop, I would have made a lot of money.  

Beside Supermax all the share prices of the other glove stocks are also dropping. 

 

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jiamuksy With all due respect sir. Both chaps are equally important. One sets the destination while the other navigates to it. The key is to ensure both chaps are equally competent. cheers.
25/02/2021 5:26 PM
Hoho22 Stubbornness and egotistical mentality are your problems.
25/02/2021 5:48 PM
CharlesT Kena margin call n forced sell?
25/02/2021 6:09 PM
arv18 Mea Culpa? Better late then never.

This phenomena is so rediculous. - Yes, but that is Bursa. In fact look at what happend to the short sellers in GameStop.

Imagine this situation. You aren't the only rich man in Malaysia. There is many others. And they all do the same exact thing - buy Supermax on margin.

Price begins to drop, the forced selling begins. It isn't rocket science now, is it? It is a vicious cycle.

Ironically, once all the margin players are forced out, the price may increase.

Cheers.
25/02/2021 7:15 PM
COVID18NOT19 KYY is not a super trader.
25/02/2021 9:09 PM
moneycashrich Technical analysis is the trend that all supporters are abandoning the glove party. Pandemic ends sooner not 4 or 5 years. Of course got technical rebound but can never go up 100% to recover to RM10.00. Party over. 20 to 50% rebound possible.
25/02/2021 9:12 PM
Lucky Winner Say...so you are selling now?
25/02/2021 9:13 PM
cbkia4896 oh... UNCLE GAVE UP??? time for glove stock to fly like no tomorrow
25/02/2021 11:08 PM
Hoho22 Lousy compulsive gambler!
25/02/2021 11:11 PM
maggiemee yaya we all go glove when he leave
25/02/2021 11:14 PM
s3phiroth kyy maybe an excellent businessman, but he is definitely a lousy newbie investor. He just doesnt know how the market really works.

As the saying goes, if u make money in stock market by luck, then u will lose it all back by your incompetent.
26/02/2021 12:45 AM
COVID18NOT19 KYY has dumped all the glove stocks.
26/02/2021 9:26 AM
COVID18NOT19 at least he knows the glove stocks are still downtrending
26/02/2021 9:30 AM
Flying Fox This old fellow now try to twist & turn, JOKE!
26/02/2021 10:05 AM
Flying Fox Beware of new ID comments, now lots of fake accounts created for cheering own self up, same old problems in i3
26/02/2021 10:08 AM
changyl 1000% Agreed, TA is more important than FA!
26/02/2021 10:36 AM
Daydreamer4698 old man, u said the best when u said nothing at alll.....orh orh orhh
26/02/2021 10:47 AM
arv18 @Flying Fox - Obviously he has been dumping (with buddies) earlier. But been bluffing here. Why else has the share price been plunging?

Most importantly he stops publishing his BS everyday.

Throwing public tantrums is akin to apeing Donald Trump.

He just needs to stop.
26/02/2021 11:02 AM
newbie8080 To be honest
Both are equally important

However, in order to select a good company to invest FA comes first, follows by TA to get good entry and exit price.

I think KYY is very confused.
26/02/2021 11:09 AM
kelvin61 For a Geezer trader playing on big MARGIN, TA takes precedence over FA. This is because the trader is playing on borrowed money and he can't afford for the share to go down or stagnate. Geezer needs an uptrending stock moving NORTH every other day. So, Geezer has finally thrown in the towel and admitted his fatal error again. Be humble in life to reap GOOD KARMA, cheers.
26/02/2021 11:24 AM
gohkimhock If TA come first, it leans more towards speculating..
26/02/2021 11:32 AM
simplasimon TA or FA , it's all speculating , betting for a desired outcome which is unknown at point of buying. Make no bones about it.
26/02/2021 1:11 PM
arv18 Another thing is any long term investor will tell you is there is a time to take profits.

Even Warren Buffet sells positions. Long suffering Supermax investors that bought shares 2003-2008 between 9 sen and 25 sen (post split) will be selling shares slowly to pay for kids college, buy a new car, and travel to NYC once Covid is over. Even at today's share price they are sitting on huge profits.

After the 2009 H1N1 pandemic we saw a 66% pull-back in price. A conservative estimate such as this pegs the price @RM3.67.

Back in 2010-11, it took 14 months for the wash-out to occur. It's happening much faster this time, which is definately not bullish for this stock.
26/02/2021 2:03 PM
byehisello aiya semua turun apa pasal
26/02/2021 3:23 PM
gladiator Why keep using PE when everyone know ASP cannot sustain super profit will not last forever.
26/02/2021 3:31 PM
silverdigger hi sir, since you are so influential in Malaysian stock market, why not you be the one to complain to SC about this ridiculous manipulation?
26/02/2021 3:35 PM
CHONG Kong Hui Not easy for one to admin the mistake, pride and ego.
Salute to those dare to admit to have made such not-so-intelligent decision.
26/02/2021 3:52 PM
Stockisnotfun Wow Kyy gave up? Hmm a bit tempted to buy gloves now. I remember last time Kyy left already then the price shoot up like hell.
26/02/2021 4:04 PM
EatCoconutCanWin read carefully, KYY still holding. holding power is good. heng ong huat arh!!!
26/02/2021 4:53 PM
Stockisnotfun You see what Kyy mentioned in the article? He trying to sell if there's a chance. He not planning to hold long long 10 years like what you guys said. In short, Kyy at most is just a human.
26/02/2021 5:42 PM
Mini Bull Uncle Koon seem likwise a beginner, TA is more important than FA
26/02/2021 6:47 PM
sense maker Don’t blame FA which drives value in the long run for your own ignorance. Valuation is always determined by maintainable profits in next 10 years, not next 1-2 years. It’s a basic lesson for even a beginner investor.
26/02/2021 7:12 PM
zonefinder Select stocks base on FA and entry and exit timing base on TA. Right now the FA is showing that this stock is a huge buy. Get it now and wait for next 1 year. Guarantee make more than 30% returns
26/02/2021 7:23 PM
DarenWai Chart shows zero banker for very long already. Wait till bankers at least 30percent then only enter. But then, why would you want to buy a rebound stock with resistance? Go for uptrend stock instead.
26/02/2021 9:26 PM
Bamboo Green Repeat
gohkimhock If TA come first, it leans more towards speculating..
26/02/2021 11:32 AM
27/02/2021 9:35 AM
Bamboo Green 这个老人语无伦次了
27/02/2021 9:35 AM
Ezitrade see money take money la uncle
27/02/2021 10:18 AM
Stockisnotfun You all overlook this:

"I learned a very expensive lesson. On hindsight, if I started to sell as soon as the price start to drop, I would have made a lot of money."

You see his is not a loyal glove supporter as what you all have said. He just not going to hold long long term. He is just normal human who want to take profit if chance is there.
27/02/2021 11:57 AM
Joe Ng Lol just imagine 10 years ago he is the 2nd shareholder of supermx, boss took him to look at factory. Now, having loss 90% of his wealth in dayang, he stay in condo rm20 while boss buy luxury condo in the us
27/02/2021 12:15 PM
GroundZero "fundamental quality is excellent"

supermx was one of the most overvalued stock in KLSE.
have you took your dementia medication?
27/02/2021 1:00 PM
Thomas Yeah, Supermax boss doesn't even care to give fat divvy to shareholders! Only buy super luxury condo in US! And yet here in Malaysia, Grandpa Koon worship such director!
I mean, why didn't Grandpa Koon promote Supermax back in March 2020! Why only now!
27/02/2021 1:03 PM
Thomas Supermax bos only go for bonus and share divvy! It's like force by bursa to do so!
27/02/2021 1:05 PM
signn supermax go usa lo....nonsense ppl can go talk kok on other stocks la...lol
27/02/2021 1:29 PM
khyeap Still FA. Super profit not sustainable in near future. Price dropped to Forward PE.
28/02/2021 6:01 AM
Morning $tar FA = Funnymental Analysis
10/03/2021 12:35 PM


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