Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Latest post: Mon, 29 Nov 2021, 9:11 AM


Why is Mr Ooi Teck Bee’s Rm 1.16 target for Hiap Teck easily achievable? Koon Yew Yin

Author:   |    Publish date:

My reasons for believing Mr Ooi Teck Bee’s target price for Hiap Teck is easily achievable are as follows:

In Malaysia steel rebars is much cheaper than in China.

Construction reinforcement steel bars are much cheaper in Malaysia than in China as shown on the 2 comparison photos. The average price in Malaysia is about US$ 450 and the average price in China is about US$ 750 per ton.

Malaysian steel rebar prices


China steel rebar prices


In Malaysia electricity is much cheaper than in China.  

The main reasons why the steel price in China is more expensive than in Malaysia is because electricity prices in China are higher than in Malaysia as shown on the 2 comparisons above. In China 1 kwh costs US$ 0.099 = 41 sen and in Malaysia 1 kwh costs only 25 sen. 

China electricity prices


Malaysia electricity prices



The steel price chart above shows that even though steel reinforce steel bars has dropped in recently in China, it has gone up from 3,500 to 5,054 RMN per ton, an increase of 44% in the last 12 months.

Hiap Teck owns 35% of Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd and 65% is own by Beijing Jianlong. Who is Jainlong? 


Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd (hereinafter called as Jianlong Group), established in 1999, is a large enterprise group mainly engaging resource exploitation, iron and steel production, shipping, shipbuilding and electrical machinery. In 2009, the holding enterprises of the group owned total assets of RMB 37.511 billion yuan, and reached the sales income of RMB38.189 billion yuan, the tax 2.277 billion yuan, the profits 1.818 billion yuan. Now, Jianlong Group is ranked the 74th among Chinese manufacturing enterprises, the 103th among top 200 efficiency of Chinese enterprises, the 153th among top 500 Chinese enterprises.


Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd manufactures steel slabs for the steel re-rolling industries. Its manufacturing complex occupies 1200 acres of land and located at Teluk Kalung, Kemaman, Terengganu. The plant comprises of:-
* Raw Material Yard
* Ironmaking Plant:
* Sinter Plant
* Blast Furnace Plant
* Pig Iron Caster

* Steelmaking Plant:
* Converter with Ladle Refining Furnace
* Slab Continuous Casting Machine
* Oxygen Plant
* Billet Caster Plant
* 55MV Power Plant

Its current production capacity is 700,000 metric tons per annum and aims to achieve an annual production of 3 million metric tons in the near future.


China Construction Industry Set to Grow by 12.4% to Reach US$ 1,355,314 million in 2021.

While the coronavirus outbreak severely impacted the Chinese construction industry in the first quarter of 2020, the resumption of construction activities picked up pace in the second quarter. After China emerged from the pandemic in March, the government of China introduced a program including a series of fiscal stimulus for constructing roads, bridges, broadband, utilities, and railroads across the country. Consequently, the prices of metals including nickel, copper, iron ore, zinc, and others that are used to build infrastructure increased.

While the construction output recorded a lower than previously predicted growth in 2020, it is forecast to rebound sharply in 2021. Moreover, China is on its way to becoming the largest single construction industry over the next decade.

Increase Containers production requiring more steel.   

China claims it has taken significant steps to ease the impact of tight container shipping capacity by boosting the availability of empty boxes and raising production of new units.

The Ministry of Transport (MoT) has also asked the major liner operators to add more calls to Chinese ports to increase capacity on export routes. The MOT said in May, the average proportion of empty containers in ports was down to 1.3%, while container manufacturers had raised production to 500,000 teu a month.

Since the 1990s, China has been the largest container producing country, with the three largest manufacturers, which have a combined market share of 82%. Last week, vice-minister of transport Zhao Chongjiu (pictured below) said: “China has become an important shipping nation and is embarking steadily on a new phase towards building its transport infrastructure.

“As China’s economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, so too is international container trade, but the pandemic has disrupted port operations, resulting in the build-up and slow return of empty containers.”

Malaysia has no more MCO

Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd’s current production capacity is 700,000 metric tons per annum and aims to achieve an annual production of 3 million metric tons in the near future.

In fact, most likely Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd will export Steel to China where steel prices are much higher than in Malaysia to make more profit.

During the last quarter ending September, Hiap Teck’s Kelang factory was shut down for 2 months and its associate Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd was shut down for 1 month. Since Malaysia has no more MCO, Hiap Teck will have fantastic profit growth prospect. As a result, Mr Ooi Teck Bee’s target price of Rm 1.16 for Hiap Teck is easily achievable.






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Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
HIAPTEK 0.475 -0.015 (3.06%) 14,700,500 

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beinvested Still Can learn a lesson even from the worse people in our modern time

1. Hitler refused to have anesthesia when his dentist was dealing with his root canal treatment. He reasoned that his armies were fighting the Russians with much more pain and he should suffer that little pain without any qualm.

2. Bernie Madoff refused to give in to the offer of the authority that he can have a better treatment in the jail sentences if he can agree to disclose the names of those who placed monies with his ponzi scheme (amounting to @USD60 BiL). Having cheated those depositors, how can he let the IRA/LHDN to investigate those victims of ponzi scheme?
25/10/2021 9:10 PM
paperplane hehe, hehehe
25/10/2021 9:56 PM
SpeedNpower I made nice profit when OTB recommended hiaptek at 50sen. TP when KYY started to promote. Yea it would be better if OTB had nothing to do with KYY. Too bad he got dragged along in kyy articles
26/10/2021 8:18 AM
Tiger62 This KYY write up very misleading 1) electrical tariff in Malaysia is not 25 cents as quoted, On average +- industries will spend RM0.55/kwh after adding the maximum demand and other charges.
2) Electricity in Steel making only part of the cost, scrap iron, consumables, gases etc form a major cost in blast furnace.
3) Selling price are taken from Internet and not the real steel cost in bulk purchases.
The writer simply write something to get his objective in manipulating the share price. That's all about it.
26/10/2021 8:29 AM
beinvested Baloney...baloney.

IF God wanted to make you rich...you don't have to be highly qualified/educated in the universities. Have we not seen before old professors went to teach with a small old car or scientists retired as poor men?

On the contrast, a foolish guy short/sold when others were asked to buy or he bought when others were selling. As the results, he made a big profit. Like a certain man short the Pounds and made huge profit out of the simple transaction. Bill Gates did not finish his studies and can not wait any longer to realize his dream in his company.

But someone who have borrowed and refused to pay back is a wicked man, both in the sight of God and men. However, at the moment he was borrowing, he is not a wicked one yet.

Plenty of charity/tzedakah can make our Creator change the decree for us. Supposedly to be snatched away the soul from the body last night, but he made a tzedakah to the poor just before the sun set, therefore the satan (life-taker) as the prosecutor could not over-ruled/convinced our Creator because the Creator will justify to the satan that "his cup that storing the sins became not overflowed again", so he continued to have more days.

Cry to God for your salvation. Once there was a man climbed out from the fencing of the hospital and ran to the grave of Rachael and cried to God for hours that he should not died of cancer at such a young age because he still got many unsettled matters in life...young children, old parents, unemployed wife...So, in days later, the doctor found that his disease had left.
26/10/2021 12:16 PM
rogers123 1.16?? Can i sailang? r OTB is too optimistic? I used to respect OTB, now he gave a TP of 1.16, i feel like he is......cheating us
26/10/2021 2:19 PM
rogers123 But i know this old man Koon is a real cheater. Old man how is ur KPS
26/10/2021 2:20 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) are you a child arv18? You talk and act like one. Please be more matured and discuss on this forum with facts and results. I think YOUR language reflects negatively on you, especially for someone without any portfolio to track, any history of stock analysis, and only a list of flaming and trolling remarks. I think you should either start to discuss more on stocks that you are holding and why you are holding them, instead of just being a troll on every page you are on.

Please, do share your history of stock performance. You seem to have been an avid poster since 2013, and yet you have never posted a portfolio or write any positive analysis on any stock ideas.

I can only conclude that you full time job on I3 is to be a troll.

Waste of time.

arv18 Your language reflects negatively on you. Not me. How old are you? Learn to control and behave yourself sir!
25/10/2021 4:42 PM
26/10/2021 2:48 PM
arv18 Shhhhhh Phillip. Remember:

"I cannot change the actions of others. I cannot change the inevitable. The only thing I can change is attitude. Life is ten percent what happens to me and ninety percent how I react to it."

Time will tell who is right or wrong.

Philip ( buy what you understand) are you a child arv18?
26/10/2021 3:06 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 3:30 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) aren't you the one talking KOK? what you posted is bullshit.


this is how you do it. a trackable portfolio of what you buy, when you buy, how much you sold and what P&L is done.

Talking nonsense like what you are doing is a waste of effort and just for you to show off. if you click in portfolio, under transaction group you will see what you actually bought, what your position is, what your actual profit is.

And best of all, you can't just delete and replace information as you please.

FYI, I think OTB actually started his position at the 50 cents range, and I am not sure if he sold at 69, but the profit there is more than whatever profits you are talking about.

you are a short term trader who thinks he is an investor talking about time will tell, without any telling of yourself.

Grow up troll.
26/10/2021 3:40 PM
arv18 Again Phiilip, you have said NOTHING about the points i have raised.

You are trying to discredit me saying i post BS, but my picks, AYS, and Lion (which i mentioned further up), have outperformed today.

You said I've deleted information. What have i deleted?

You are all over the place Phillip. Calm down little boy.
26/10/2021 3:46 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 3:54 PM
kiki Angan Mat Jenin.
26/10/2021 4:12 PM
gohkimhock 忍一时风平浪静,退一步海阔天空..
26/10/2021 4:17 PM
OTB Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Oct 26, 2021 3:40 PM | Report Abuse

FYI, I think OTB actually started his position at the 50 cents range, and I am not sure if he sold at 69, but the profit there is more than whatever profits you are talking about.
I bought 20% of my portfolio at 0.49 and another 80% at 0.55.
I sold this 20% at 0.695.
I still keep 80% of my portfolio.
I also bought back 20% of my portfolio at 0.635 today.
Overall I still maintain 100% of my portfolio.

Thank you.
26/10/2021 4:18 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Koon yew yin also doesn't go around being a troll and trying to bully people on a investment forum.

Something only kids with too much free time and no money will do.

You should grow up. Go to member services and look at all your comments. You will find that you contribute nothing to this website except vitriol and insults and being a downright troll.

Why are you being a troll on an investment website? Most likely because you lost money following their picks and are feeling testy and angry for acting like a fool and losing money gambling on their picks.

I don't bother with kyy or otb on their picks and make my own decisions in life. I comment positively on stocks I pick and why I pick them and follow closely their results.

Why do you feel the need to insult everybody on the forum with your comments. You can scroll to you comments and find zero positive remarks.

You are a troll, plain and simple. If you have nothing constructive to contribute, being silent can be an alternative option.

Being a troll is your privilege. Handle with care.

I'm sure in real life you might be a nice, respectful and intelligent person. But hiding behind an internet avatar, you seem to think you can insult everyone and anyone just because people cannot identify you.



Posted by arv18 > Oct 26, 2021 3:54 PM | Report Abuse

Phiilip, OTB, and Con Man Koon. Stop spending time attacking me and put more effort with your team to MARGIN up and push up Hiap Teck to RM1.16. Your very specific TP.

Regarding trackable portfolio, I don't work for free. I don't give stock picks for free.

Do your own stock picking yourself, Phillip. Don't be lazy.

Where is Con Man Koons i3 trackable portfolio? I don't see it anywhere, now you've mentioned it.
26/10/2021 8:09 PM
arv18 Again Phillip, I have no quarell with you. I don't know what your mental issue is. Please stop and get help.
26/10/2021 8:27 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 8:33 PM
emsvsi You old farts don't know the first rule of the internet do you. Don't feed the trollololol
26/10/2021 8:58 PM
HonestInvestor33 Ha ha ha I am laughing at a half baked, no money, no holding power Mr. TROLL by then name of arv18.

Such shallow , cursory and wishy washy analysis on Hiaptek cannot make you a guru in i 3. Gurus here gain their followers not by their 100 % correct analysis but by their in depth fundamental and technical analysis. The real life experiences of Philip or OTB and their explanations and the reasons why they buy or sell into a certain share, are learnings that should be appreciated.

Only a kid still using pacifiers will act and behave like you. Philip was perfectly correct in describing you as such.

For the record I check up your profile and saw that you bought Press Metal at 2.50 and sold at 3.50 sometime around 2014/15.After two bonus issues, your cost would have been around 70 cts a share and you would have made returns many times better than the EPF.

You are just another layman punter who saw a diamond as a piece of glass , that,s what you are.

A short term punting layman cannot be rich and cannot be an icon to follow as they lack investment knowledge , discipline and money power.

For your info , I am and was an ardent follower of OTB,KYY,PHILIP,COLD EYE and many others.

Kid on pacifier, please wise up and don,t make a fool of yourself here. We are all here to make money and not to create enemies.

I cannot stay neutral seeing a greenhorn running wild like a wild bull in a china shop.
26/10/2021 9:09 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 9:33 PM
Yu_and_Mee Why is Mr Ooi Teck Bee’s Rm 1.16 target for Hiap Teck easily achievable?

Because KYY asked to hard sell so can push up for him to sell at highest?
26/10/2021 9:35 PM
Yu_and_Mee KYY should learn from cold eye. Keep the mouth shut after buying any stock, not to spread and earn money from newbies. Bad karma that way, although we say buyers have to take own responsibility. But not all are experienced and easily get conned.
26/10/2021 9:37 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 9:41 PM
OTB Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 9:48 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 9:50 PM
OTB Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 9:51 PM
HonestInvestor33 arv18 @arv18

Apr 17, 2014 5:57 PM | Report Abuse

anyway, bought at 2.50, sell at 3.50 after 3 weeks, who cares why right?

I have extracted these comments from arv18 profile pages 25. dated April 17 , 2014 at 5.57 pm.

Kid arv18 your parents did not teach you to lie.

Now you are a LIAR.

Can anyone trust you?

Kid with pacifier arv18 please be ashamed and run to the nearest toilet to hide.
If you are not your parents or your children are.
26/10/2021 9:52 PM
OTB Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 9:52 PM
OTB tin kosong makes the most noise.
If you have good material in your brain, you do not behave in this way.
Loss of confidence, I do not blame you because you lost a lot of money in stock market.
Attack people in I3 to find your happiness.
26/10/2021 9:55 PM
OTB Posted by arv18 > Oct 26, 2021 9:41 PM | Report Abuse

All these ppl, Phillip, "HonestInvestor88", OTB are all crooks. Never will debate or address points raised, but seek to resort to personal attacks, pretending to know something.
You do not have any material in you, how to debate.
Talk to you on fundamental, you do not know.
You are not the only one who knows technical charting.
FYI, I taught technical charting in Malaysia, Singapore, China and Hong Kong before.
Do not act in front of me.
We made million from the stock market.
26/10/2021 10:00 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 10:07 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 10:17 PM
sensonic Uncle , buy cmsb ,fall from 2.50 . very cheap now
26/10/2021 10:25 PM
HonestInvestor33 Kid with pacifier arv18 @ arv18 , don,t beat around the mulberry bush.
1] What is the future price of Hiaptek in Jan 2022 or June 2022 no one can know but can predict only. If you disagree or agree that is your problem.

2]You were undressed for lying about press metal as per evidence on pages 25 in your arv18 profile.

If I am caught for outright lying I will hide in the toilet.
Your family members and friends will feel terribly ashamed to have a liar in their midst.

You are shameless to ask the gurus to listen to an irrelevant and useless comment of yours. Maybe you are a form 5 dropout?
26/10/2021 10:26 PM
Sslee Maybe everyone in i3 should learn from Putin how to response to insult:

Putin responds to Biden's accusations that he is a killer: He who calls names is called that himself.

"When we evaluate other people, states and nations, we always seem to be looking in the mirror. We always see ourselves. We always pass on to another person what we ourselves are in essence.

"In childhood, when we argued with each other, we said: 'He who calls names is called that himself.' This is no coincidence, this is not just a childish joke, it has a very deep psychological meaning."
26/10/2021 10:41 PM
OTB Post removed. Why?
26/10/2021 10:56 PM
mrbusiness I remembered when we discussed about Hiaptek during MCO3.0. There are a long time which Hiaptek remain around 50 cent. Everyone can enter at that time and have a good paper profit now. So please do not accuse OTB try to push up price now. Not fair to him la. He shared a lot of info here while most of people here did not pay him or appreciate his effort.

It is apparent steel counters will go up and it is still early stage. Because there are still a lot of non believers...牛市总在绝望中诞生,在怀疑中成长,在乐观中成熟,在兴奋中死亡。。。

While for glove counters, if you are experienced investors, you should know those will buy, already in them, waiting for novice investors to buy for them. That is why the share price does not go up.
26/10/2021 11:21 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) The worse thing to do is to feed a troll. He hides behind a moniker arv18 which no one knows and believes he has the privilege to insult or make fun of anything and anyone. Whatever you say will be used as fuel to give even more insulting remarks.

To be honest I also do not like how koon yew yin almost skirts the line of illegality of buying stocks and inside information to buy stocks and influence with articles.

However: it is obviously NOT illegal as SC know exactly who kyy is, where he lives and how much he invests. And let's be honest, he loses money just the same as you arv18.

The difference is he is a KOL, a public personality that everyone knows.

So leave him be.

Start your own stocks articles instead of hijacking others with troll remarks and insults.

In fact, maybe instead of insults you can start with your name.

That way you can start taking responsibility for your insults and remarks right? If you dare to go around calling people cons and names, perhaps you can leave your real name so we can know who is actually leaving the insults.

Or do you just like trolling from the shadows?
27/10/2021 6:10 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Your comments on ays and lionid shows that you are nothing but a small time trader trying to profit by speculating on penny stocks. The obvious plot here is that you are proud of making 2% on lionid shows that you only discuss your profits instead of looking at your losses, something which kyy and otb to his credit is clear cut about and their articles and remarks. Are you honest enough to discuss your full " speculative performance"? You seem to have been around since 2013, how have you really fared in the market?

In fact, results like yours are a dime a dozen. Here is details you can pull from my publicly tracked portfolio ( which obviously I post after it is done), the date it was done, how much was the volume and the return.

This was for harbour link recently. This was tracked, verified and actually the product of research from the analysis of good readers here on i3 who have left because of constant trolling from individuals like you and joined telegram where the GOAL is to discuss stocks analysis and buy/sell. I participated in this analysis sharing and made off with 27% without needing to be a troll

Unit Price
Net Amt.
Balance Shares
Realized Gain
Average Cost
Per Share
Balance Cost
Per Share
29-Sep-2021 Buy +200,000 1.15 +230,878.50 200,000 - 230,878.50 1.154 230,878.50 1.154
29-Sep-2021 Buy +150,000 1.18 +177,699.15 350,000 - 408,577.65 1.167 408,577.65 1.167
01-Oct-2021 Buy +150,000 1.30 +195,770.25 500,000 - 604,347.90 1.208 604,347.90 1.208
04-Oct-2021 Buy +250,000 1.32 +331,173.50 750,000 - 935,521.40 1.247 935,521.40 1.247
07-Oct-2021 Sell -300,000 1.62 -484,366.30 450,000 +110,157.74 561,312.84 1.247 451,155.10 1.002
12-Oct-2021 Sell -150,000 1.57 -234,605.27 300,000 +47,500.99 374,208.56 1.247 216,549.83 0.721
13-Oct-2021 Sell -300,000 1.59 -475,392.85 0 +101,184.29 0.00 0.000 -258,843.02 - ∞

The lesson to learn here is to stop wasting time being a troll, and start spending time learning how buy stocks.

You gain nothing ARV18 by reposting vicious comments on OTHER peoples articles.

Maybe there is a reason why kyy is a millionaire, while you are still up at 1017 PM trying to find reasons to insult him.

The reason could be you.

Posted by arv18 > Oct 26, 2021 9:41 PM | Report Abuse

All these ppl, Phillip, "HonestInvestor88", OTB are all crooks. Never will debate or address points raised, but seek to resort to personal attacks, pretending to know something.

Sad state of affairs.

It also makes to me even more confident of my decision to sell out of AYS & Lion. I'm not looking for the Top. Happy with my profit.
27/10/2021 6:36 AM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
27/10/2021 12:30 PM
jasonred79 I don't agree with many of Phillips investment choices, and my portfolio and investment strategy are completely different. ... but saying Phillip is a crook is bullshit. Phillip is the most transparent and honest person here in his farmed portfolio. AFAIK, no one else posts their full portfolio with transaction dates and prices and amounts, in real time.

Personally, I think I'm a better investor than him, and my results are better too... but I can't/ won't prove it, because I'm not willing to divulge my transactions to the general public in the way that he does.

Look at his Serba transactions. He didn't delete them, he honestly still shows how he averaged down on his initial buy in, and then eventually cut loss... and his bad luck that immediately after he exited, Serba went up significantly higher (before crashing and eventual suspension).
Unlike for instance, KYY, who has no transparency at all, and even reports late to the SC.


Disclaimer: this is not an endorsement of Phillip's investment advice. In fact, as stated, I have never followed any of his tips or advice... I am simply stating that calling him a crook or dishonest is ridiculous, because he does FULL DISCLOSURE. (not the type that gets you arrested for flashing)
27/10/2021 12:31 PM
FutureGains RM1.16@50%. RM0.60
27/10/2021 12:34 PM
arv18 Post removed. Why?
27/10/2021 1:20 PM
arv18 drop until the have to flag and delete my posts. frankly i'm honoured! feel vindicated!

27/10/2021 6:30 PM
OTB I have very high respect on Philip even I did not buy the stocks he selected.
I believe he is doing very well.
Thank you.
27/10/2021 8:12 PM
sangkancil tutup kedai liao..closed shop
13/11/2021 9:44 PM
stockraider If U worry about hiapteck...u may consider palmoil stock as next best alternative loh!

The following write up summarize why is it palmoil stock offer the best investment & investor protection loh!

Do not listen to the good for nothing stock analyst who have vested interest loh!

Investment into farmland or plantation is the best defensive investment strategy now loh!

Invest now...b4 its share price rerate & shoot up mah!

U see...sifu calvin should continue to promote plantations share when there is still deep margin safety for plantation stock mah!

This is the very safest strategy mah!

No need to heed the naysayers complaining spamming mah!

Bcos naysayers had very bad ulterior motives mah!
Remember why investing into palmoil stock is greatleh ??

Plantation land beside having huge tract of cheap land to protect us against rampant inflation, it also produce food and also provide good & safe dividend yield of 3% t0 6% pa much superior compare to fixed deposits of yield less than 2% pa.

Remember why investing into palmoil stock is greatleh ??

Plantation land beside having huge tract of cheap land to protect us against rampant inflation, it also produce food and also provide good & safe dividend yield of 3% t0 6% pa much superior compare to fixed deposits of yield less than 2% pa.

In other words plantation is a perfect investment at the moment loh!

Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 6, 2021 5:28 PM | Report Abuse


I have read all the argument broth forth by the Naysayer IB Bankers

None of them is true

See our Friend reply

Posted by Johnzhang > Nov 2, 2021 9:57 AM | Report Abuse

IBs and many pessimist are relentlessly worried that CPO price will fall since the day CPO reached $3,000/- in 2020. CPO reached $5,350 now! Should investors be too concerned if CPO price correct down from today's level ?
I would like to share the year's high (H) , low (L) and the simple average (Avg) from year 2008 to 2021as below :
2008. $4179 (H) , $1403 (L) , $2791 (Avg)
2009. 2887,. 1630. 2259
2010. 3782. 2386. 3084
2011. 3930. 2786. 3358
2012. 3567. 2027. 2797
2013. 2635. 2157. 2396
2014. 2917. 1933. 2425
2015. 2360. 1802. 2081

2016. 3243. 2181. 2712
2017. 3344. 2338. 2841
2018. 2555. 1718. 2137
2019. 3025. 1834. 2430
2020. 3835. 2021 2928
Avg. 3251. 2017. 2634
2021YTD 5395. 3471. 4434

2021's H is 29% higher than the highest H (2008)
2021's H is 66% higher than the avg H 2008-2019
2021's L. Is 147% higher than the lowest L (2008)
2021's L is 72% higher than the avg L 2008-2019
2021's Avg is 68% higher than the Avg 2008-2019.

Despite the above , all plantantion counters stock prices are 20-50% below the highs achieved in 2008 -2020 period . Mind boggling indeed.

So, why should there be worries if CPO price indeed correct for 10-20% next year ??
02/11/2021 9:54 AM


Oct 26, 2021 3:22 PM | Report Abuse

The windfall tax is not new . It has been around since 2008.
The IBs rating for plantation sector have been like this :
When CPO $3,000 , price will fall to $2,500 , neutral rating
When CPO $3,500 , price will fall to $2,700 , neutral rating
When CPO $4,000 , price will fall to $2,800 , neutral rating
When CPO $4,500 , price will fall to $3,000 , neutral rating
When CPO $5,000, price will fall to $3,200 , neutral rating
When CPO $5,300 , price will fall to $3,300 , neutral rating
Listening to IBs will bring you to Holland !




Posted by Johnzhang > Oct 8, 2021 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

I am pleased to share the projected full year (2021) EPS and the prospective PE of some of my favorite plantation counters. The Projected EPS is based on actual 1H + Q3+Q4. Q3 EPS can be estimated fairly accurately as Q3 avg CPO prices is known and production numbers are mostly available . I also make the assumption that Q4 EPS is same level as Q3 for reasons that ASP Q4 seem to be even higher and labourers for plantantion sector are coming in to maximize crop recovery. Given that Nov/Dec is usually seasonally lower crops, but the higher ASP and labour availability should be enough to offset that,
On above basis , the FY 2021 EPS and prospective PE based on yesterday closing share price as as follows:

Bplant. EPS 9.6sen , PE 7.1x
THplant. EPS 16.5sen , PE 4.4x
SOP. EPS 73.0sen. PE 5.3x
MHC. EPS 20.9sen. PE 4.5x
Cepat. EPS 13,9sen. PE 5.2x
Swkplt. EPS 48sen. PE 5.2x
Taaan. EPS 67.9sen PE 4.6x
Hsplant. EPS 23.6sen. PE 9.3X.

Historical PE for plantation counter is 15 to 25x
As such, plantation counters are seriously underappre
14/11/2021 1:20 PM
captureConUlar Post removed. Why?
14/11/2021 1:25 PM


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