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The Pelham Blue Fund

Author: pelhambluefund   |   Latest post: Tue, 26 Mar 2019, 12:57 PM

 

We Also Wrote a Letter to the Securities Commission...

Author:   |    Publish date:


** This is purely fictional

 

 

 

 

 

Dear Securities Commission of Malaysia,

 

 

I am writing to register my complaint about the conduct of some investment banks and their analysts, whose recent downgrade of my favorite stock has caused the price to drop considerably.

 

I am of course writing about TalkCock Industries (TCO), an investment education company that had gone through tough times but whose financials have been recovering. The stock fell to RM1 recently, after gaining 250% since January to RM1.80. 

 

I have repeatedly told readers of my blog that TCO is worth at least RM4. How did I come up with this? Simple - my 'platinum rule' is to buy the stock when the company records three consecutive quarters of profit recovery. Never mind that the sector is cyclical, vulnerable to broader market factors, and that the company has yet to prove that talking cock is an inherently sustainable business model. These are not as important, OK?

 

My logic is very simple. TCO reported earnings per share of 12 sen in its latest quarter. Multiply by four quarters, assuming it will report at least this much EPS, and you will get annual EPS of 48 sen. From this observation, and assuming a conservative PE ratio, the stock is undoubtedly worth RM4 at least. This observation is worth the content of at least ten research reports.

 

My followers and blog readers evidently shared my unbridled enthusiasm. This explained the recent 250% rally - I did not tell them to buy the shares, of course! Not even once, twice, or four times. 

 

I now find myself in the awkward situation of explaining to them why they have lost money and I sort of didn't, since I was smart enough to buy into TCO very early. This is clearly unacceptable, so I have a list of demands.

 

I urge the SC to reprimand the analysts whose stock analysis skills are undoubtedly subpar. Please don't give me acronyms like CFA and SWOT analysis - my platinum rule trumps them all. I am of course very happy when the research reports support my stock position. When they reverse course, not so much.

 

One of the analysts had the nerve to downgrade his target price for TCO, saying that 'the last quarterly performance is unlikely to be repeated'. Another analyst - presumably very young and has no clue about trading shares - dared to say in his report that 'investors would be wise to take some profits'. What is going on here!

 

This stock price movement after the UNREASONABLE downgrades are a TRAVESTY.

 

 

These downgrades, and the concerted efforts by certain parties, have caused me considerable grief as I have lost vast sums of money. I am at a struggle to explain why; I have always used my margin account and utilised the leverage responsibly.

 

I challenge these investment banks to prove that they do not hold any TCO shares. Additionally, they each have to write a written confession that there is no conspiracy to destroy Malaysia's fledgling talking cock industry. 

 

After that, I urge them to reimburse me for the sums I have lost due to these unforeseen downgrades. My followers are unhappy that my target price are nowhere near being met. I expected better out of them as there were no complaints when TCO did nothing but go up, every day.

 

Investment banks' research reports are such dangerous things. Analysts can be so irresponsible sometimes. To these people, I am willing to forgive them for their lack of experience and market nuance. I am also willing to help them make better investment decisions and analysis, simply by following what I say and write about.

 

A properly well-informed analyst would easily share my views; TCO is worth at least RM4 and not one sen less. With an expected GDP growth of 4.9% this year, and higher subscription rates for classes where investment gurus do nothing but talk cock, I am certain the business will pick up. 

 

The SC has a responsibility to protect shareholders' interests. Especially when I tell people to buy and now they're angry at me for being stuck at high prices.

 

These people will hold everybody accountable when they lose money trading shares : the SC, TCO's management, Tun Mahathir, Najib, and even myself. I am not saying I am the same but somebody, anybody has to be held responsible when I lose money. Enough is enough.

 

 

 

Sincerely,

 

Concerned Shareholder

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  4 people like this.
 
probability Let me enlighten a little:

perhaps even IB analysis is actually TCO "Talk Cock analysis'

why?
......

Tell me how many stock actually achieve the TP given by IB?

what is the odds - probability hitting it on average?

10%?

what makes us believe IB are not talking cock

everything appears to be more like 'rubbing cock' to ejaculate the stocks.....

thats all there is especially in Bursa
26/03/2019 1:08 PM
lextcs can someone also write a complaint about PA. This stock is backed up by a NTA of myr 5.97 per share and is worth only 0.05c now...how can that be? even if any tom dick and pubic hairy wants to offer 100% above current price to take it private he will stand to earn tens of millions....so whats going on with PA resources? directors sleeping ka
26/03/2019 1:16 PM
probability if say the average hit rate of the TP or the direction of price movement over time enable one to make a return at cost of equity (whether via downgrade or upgrade TP)....

then perhaps IB have a little more credibility compared to Koon's magic formula in terms of providing better return rate

Perhaps - an analysis of 5 pages cannot match the evidence produced by a recent spike in earnings on the immediate future direction of the business / stock price
26/03/2019 1:17 PM
soojinhou hilarious!
26/03/2019 1:18 PM
684780829 This must be catchcon. Letter was used by SC boss to wipe his arse.
26/03/2019 1:21 PM
abang_misai pukimak. hehe.
26/03/2019 1:22 PM
qqq3 Hengyuan, Carimin, Hibiscus, Dayang...even Jaks and Sendai, a lot of people made a lot of money.

next time join the party earlier.


but don't join party after restaurant lunch.
26/03/2019 1:24 PM
Bursawise listen to yourself...please..
26/03/2019 1:42 PM
Musang King @lextcs NTA for PA Resources is only RM0.0597 and NOT RM5.97 as reported by you.
26/03/2019 5:09 PM
Airline Bobby hahahha vele good well written letter xD
26/03/2019 7:13 PM
adamsmith lol.....nice one
26/03/2019 9:29 PM
Rowie KYY point which everybody missed.......stock is on an uptrend
Brokers in "collusion" (difficult to prove) perfect timing downgraded the price (almost same target price) to depress the uptrend. Brokers proprietary traders & stockists deliberately shorted the stock to create a panic sell thereby with the intention of share accumulations. Bursa has all the records, I think KYY must have heard some whispers otherwise he would not declare his shareholdings & complain to SC.
One main blogger aka Dali came out in defence of the brokers......has to cos u rub my back , I rub yours & now payback time.
26/03/2019 9:43 PM
verylucky so free to write this kind of rubbish,for what?
26/03/2019 10:30 PM
paperplane Such a childish idiot.... What u get out of it. A 80 yr oldman i can understand, but u...
26/03/2019 11:00 PM
Sumika brilliant, absolutely brilliant letter.... cheers
27/03/2019 12:01 AM
27/03/2019 12:05 AM
batman0037 SC should stop the both manipulator
27/03/2019 9:28 AM
dusti Do what SG is doing right now
27/03/2019 9:50 AM
pussycats Good letter. Let Bursa check every big blue whale in Bursa ecosystem.
27/03/2019 7:33 PM
Felicity brilliant
27/03/2019 7:37 PM
Rowie How u think Dali & gang (broker gang) made their money
27/03/2019 7:45 PM
probability Fortune, u mean Koon will not give up and prove that his TP will come true?

Guess he wont let it go at least till 2.20 plus...

Big slap on the face of IB

Posted by Fortune Bull > Mar 27, 2019 7:45 PM | Report Abuse

Hihihaha! The photo of roaster really sum up the alpha male ego here! You know, a roaster will showoff how 'big' it is even to human observer! It will even fight to the death with another alpha roaster! Which sum up my stock god ego, bigger than a roaster!
27/03/2019 8:15 PM
probability well said.

Whether Koon wants to push it up or not....very likely it will be flying high by itself by the time the next qtr results are out

just another 7 weeks
27/03/2019 8:20 PM
kelvin61 Fabulously written. In fact, it reminds me of an idiot rogue trader who calls himself a super fool investor. It seems everyone is a small trader to him unless they are in his league of having big margin and balls. Otherwise, you are nothing to him and if you anger him, he will demand you to show him your track record. Actually, he's track record is very poor as he did not account for all his major losers except repeating like an old record of his winners, shssssh.
27/03/2019 9:32 PM
kelvin61 I hope he's reading it and maybe he might grow up at this ridiculous old age to realise that the market owes you nothing, offer you no explanation and is perfectly normal for IBs to call it the other way. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen, shsssh.
27/03/2019 9:38 PM
probability clearly IB was having Koon in mind when they wrote the TP...it was not an unbiased analysis at all..

well said pjseow

Posted by pjseow > Mar 27, 2019 8:56 PM | Report Abuse

If Kenanga felt that the Q4 result cannot be sustained , why upgrade the target price ? Why Kenanga only focus on Q4 result and upcoming Q1 19 rather than the whole of 2018 and the whole of 2019 outlook ? The Q3 2018 revenue is almost the same as Q4 revenue . If Q4 revenue which consist of only lump sum revenue without the normal schedule rates , what about Q3 revenue which consist of both normal schedule rates of 127 million plus lump sum of 111 millions . Is this Q3 revenue which is " normal " sustainable ? IF Kenanga feel that Q1 2019 will have a more normalised revenue , then they should expect a RM 127 million schedule rate revenue in Q1 plus may be half of Q4 RM 269 million ( fair estimate ) lump sum . With such normalised revenues respectively , its Q1 total revenue will still be more than 300 million assuming the other marine charter revenue to be 50 million . Kenanga only state that the Q4 lump sum revenue is not sustainable , it did not mention the schedule rate and marine charter revenue is not sustainable . The way kenanga summarise its report give many an impression that Q1 2019 revenue will be much worsed than Q4 2018 without articulating why Q4 has zero schedule rate revenue which is abnormal and also assume that Q1 will also have zero schedule rate revenue which is totally abnormal and illogical .
27/03/2019 9:40 PM
VolatileIsMyGold Just another case of sour grape, smart arse, clever dikk, wise poussey, sore arse rambling.
28/03/2019 4:34 AM
VolatileIsMyGold Their coordinated Friday - Monday dirty job devastated Dayang whole of last week. Now that exactly same gangsta bittch IB gang is doing their next raid job on Sapnrg.

Apparently, this is what they do regularly for side income.

https://www.thesundaily.my/business/analysts-slash-earnings-forecasts-for-sapura-energy-NB726069
28/03/2019 4:46 AM
VolatileIsMyGold These guys would lose their licence & their jobs if I were SC chief. Plus also do prison time.
28/03/2019 4:50 AM
ruby20 thoroughly enjoyed every bit of it
28/03/2019 2:59 PM
batman0037 Do so many time but the SC still quietly like a cat. Is it SC also same like umno? take money and diam diam not catch con yy and others.
28/03/2019 3:35 PM
Undi_PAS If all counters listed in Bursa got people complain will SC entertain all?
28/03/2019 4:01 PM
Undi_PAS Why only Dayang SC can entertain complain?
28/03/2019 4:03 PM
Undi_PAS All scams operate same way. At first they promote the counters as good. After you bought only U-turn said no good hence sell call. PH/BN dare not do anything.
28/03/2019 4:06 PM


 

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