Highlights

Investing theory 1 - ROE

Author: Philip ( buy what you understand)   |   Latest post: Fri, 14 Aug 2020, 6:34 PM

 

Why glove QR good share price Drop? - Old Man who missed the GLOVE Boat.....

Author: Philip ( buy what you understand)   |  Publish date: Fri, 14 Aug 2020, 6:34 PM


Hello there,

 

I am Philip. As today everyone has had a few days to digest the results of the SUPERMAX and HARTA results, the biggest and most interesting question is..

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE GLOVE STOCKS AFTER QR REPORT?

 

So far, many speculators and investors have been caught off guard and totally surprised at the results that came out and the share performance after that.

 

HARTA - announces 219 million in NET Profits, 90% growth Quarter-to-Quarter, and 133% growth Year-to-Year. Share price drops from RM20 to RM16.

SUPERMAX - announces 399 million in NET Profits, 462% growth QoQ, 2553% growth YoY. Share price drops from RM22 to RM18.

What happened? Shouldn't a stock go up after a great  all time high quarter?

Not exactly.

Firstly, we have to understand the long term prospects of everything, not only short term results.

Firstly, Lets look at Comparative Valuation:

MAYBANK - 87 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 2 BILLION NET PROFIT, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 8.4 BILLION.

HAPSENG - 21 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 160 MILLION NET PROFIT, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 1.165 BILLION.

NESTLE - 33 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 186 MILLION NP, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 672 MILLION.

PCHEM - 47.6 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 500 MILLION NP, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 2.8 BILLION.

SUPERMAX - 24.8 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 399 MILLION NP, LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 525 MILLION.

HARTALEGA - 55.5 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 220 MILLION NP. LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 560 MILLION.

TOPGLOVE - 64.7 BILLION VALUATION - LAST QUARTER 347 MILLION NP. LAST ANNUAL PROFIT 655 MILLION.

 

* Please note that for this analysis I am taking a few liberties like ignoring debt and borrowings in terms of valuation, the ROE or quality of earnings, and the growth runway/competition for those earnings.

 

However, there are a few mental models we need to take into account. 

1. Assuming we are just starting in the Covid19 cycle, When will it end? As we know that sooner or later it will end, how will affect the long term growth prospects of businesses.

2. what is the affect of foreign investment on stocks listed on multiple exchanges? (supermax in hong kong, topglove in Singapore) as these adds liquidity and matured investors. Note for example the glove rally in Malaysia went earlier, larger and longer than the glove rally in Singapore. In some cases Riverstone, a major glove maker only had their stockprice climbing in mid/late May in SGX. One thing to remember: Bursa Malaysia does not work on the same precepts at NYSE or NASDAQ, just like how doing business in China is different from doing business in Malaysia and USA. BURSA is NOT NYSE.

3. Trading is the study of human emotions. Investing is the study of business prospects. This is a very important distinct difference. In the short term, stocks can go anywhere. In the long term, earnings will decide if the share price goes up or down.

 

Using these 3 big ideas, we dive down and try to understand why things are happening the way it is working out right now. The first question is of course: When will it end? Unfortunately, trying to predict WHEN it will end is an exercise in futility.  However, what we can do is predict IF and HOW it will end, this can be done with more accuracy. To the first part, the definite answer is YES. How will it end? This is more complicated but also not hard to predict. What happens? Firstly, there will be a period of time (expectation is 1-5 years until a vaccine is found) when fear is everywhere, economies shrink, markets are in chaos, and stocks with anything to do with healthcare, social distancing tech, gold speculation (hard assets in times of chaos) will go up and down. Then you will have a few companies who will announce vaccine is near (and the speculation will ensue). Some will work, many will not, but sooner or later a major company will declare and world will accept that a working Vaccine is Found!. Things will start to go back to normal, and business with competitive advantage will win market share, while those that never had a competitive edge, will slip back into the back pages of penny stock speculation.

Knowing this will happen is easy. Trying to TIME the market is Fatal in the long term. So using the first mental model, we can have a clear understanding that in relation to glove stocks the price will go from good results to increased expectations to better results to unrealistic expectations causing bad results (in relation to unrealistic expectations). 

This is where everyone gets caught.

When one has unrealistic expectations that differs from the stock performance, no matter how good the performance of the company is, people will SELL. This is why TIMING the market is so fraught with danger.

The trick to successfull investing (and trading) is to have a realistic expectation of where the business is going, and paying a fair price for it.

What is realistic for me? As someone who has held Topglove for many years now, from RM10 share split last year to RM4, and sold all at RM10.30

TOPGLOVE - RM5, 16 billion valuation,  370million annual, PE43 valuation is fair for the business dominance in the market, the ROE, the consistent growth that you can see happening for the next 10 years. how many topglove can you find in the market? Realistic Expectations? In 10 years, Topglove should be able to average 800-1 billion in earnings per year, smashing the current DCF valuation for a rock solid highly scalable company which sells the world over.

what becomes unrealistic is when valuation becomes RM24, 64.7 billion valuation, PE95 valuation because if you know that if one day there will be a vaccine, the demand will lessen. By how much? We can then look at an elevated realistic expectation of the market demand and use that for the next 10 years post covid. You know that gloves can make double or 3x the profits in the year to come, but after that ship sails? You will be left with multiple new companies that have suddenly built glove production capacity and fighting with you for new market share and cut throat prices. A few years of profitable COVID earnings followed by multiple years of huge compettition for market share and supply. Then you will realize what the competitive advantage of Hartalega and Topglove is throughout the years ( huge cash position, patents, and lowest scale producer). But mark my words, with China face shield market as a indicator, it will be a painful set of years to follow. This part is easy to predict. When it will Happen? No idea. Will it happen? Almost definitely (supply and demand )

So looking at comparative growth? Look to the chart above again.

If you have the money to buy a Ferrari for 64.7 billion, what kind of sportscar are you looking to go for? Assuming  it doesn't break down and if the value of rare one of a kind cars increase over time, a 60 billion sportscar should get you within the range of 2.8 - 8.4 billion (horsepower).

However, cars break down and new electric cars become popular. Companies like banks will become profitable one day (after huge reset of the NPL loans and borrowings to bankrupt companies and economies in the near future post moratorium) and oil prices will not stay below $40 forever, benefitting those companies that are oversold.

Again, buy low sell high.

So, knowing that one day in the future (we can't predict when the rain will come, but we can build that roof over our heads) will come, all you can do is BUY LOW SELL HIGH. In this case invest in low priced BLUE CHIP STOCKS. So what happened with the recent huge selloff of the stock market of glove stocks? A cooldown of the shares? A profit taking by people who made millions playing the glove stocks?

Who knows? Who cares? In the short term there can be thousands of reasons why all these things are happening. BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER? SELL HIGHER BUY BACK HIGH? Its a confusing attack of information, which NO ONE can predict.

In the long term the answer is simple:

Most of them are will be SELLING HIGH, to BUY LOW. Timing this market or frontrunning everyone? Very stressful, almost impossible if you dont have a huge pool of data to work with and tons of data engineers to help you collect and sort important information, and scrub anomalies. Not impossible. But very, very hard. There is a reason why most of the traders (80%) that use IB, Thinkorswim, RobinHood etc ALL lose money in their first years.

 

So the simple answer to why the share prices crashed after an excellent QR? FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT TAKING, CONTRA, VACCINE. WHO KNOWS?  Why should you care unless you BOUGHT HIGH something you didn't understand.

 

One last mental model to consider, 

"The highest risk is not when stock price is at its lowest, it is at its highest and everyone is full of optimism in the market that risk is highest. The lowest risk is then when the stock price is at its lowest, when no one wants to even look at the business, and when everyone is looking to sell. All you have to ask yourself is this: Is this TEMPORARY or PERMANENT?" Making a profit has nothing to do with risk, you can gamble your life savings all on red and double your money, but it doesn't make it less risky. In fact, building risky habits will hurt you in the long run. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Revell#:~:text=Ashley%20Revell%20(born%201971%20in,Hotel%20%26%20Casino%2C%20Las%20Vegas.

I hope this Covid19 stock market experience has given you some exciting lessons, and I hope you learn something new today.

P.S. I am trying something new as the collection of mental models (important big picture concepts that is easily understood by everyone that we can use to make important decisions), in the future I will start to highlight these mental models in blue, so we can start to learn how to make useful decisions and avoid emotional and greedy ones.

  6 people like this.
 
Jack Khan I know what you are saying but you must not confuse target price and stock valuation price!
Target price is mean to be short term valuation for the share price to hit the say target but not mean to stay for long period of time! (A lot of time it just reach short of the TP. Very risky but achievable)

Stock valuation price should be view and Stock price in normal trading without bias of short term benefit(such as favourable market condition) I think this is what philip looking at most of the time. (Very safe but still have risk)
14/08/2020 9:16 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) TP price actually means take profit price. The question is how do you define the take profit level in the guest place?

Target price is based on short term valuation? How does one even do valuation short term?

It's like solving a sudoku puzzle when you only have 3 numbers.
14/08/2020 10:28 PM
Vc Looi Gold rush to 2000 usd per ounce it’s soon or later will go down anyway then why market still want to buy in ?
15/08/2020 12:38 AM
apolloang all insider trading,before results out insiders already bought a lot.after results out they sell
15/08/2020 12:40 AM
Vc Looi No bull in any commodity will last for ever soon or later will come down but market will move together will the raise and adjust later when demand is less, author is acting and seeing thing like a Buddha which shouldn’t actually involve in the investment as many thing will go round and round then you will find nothing that you can invest. Glove company who are making money this round will not kept the earning as donations to themselves but rather will go thru expansion and diversified to increase revenue and that is the valuations come about..
15/08/2020 12:50 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) What are you trying to say look? You are going round and round I don't really understand.
15/08/2020 6:36 AM
Vc Looi You being acting too rational, in market any kind of bull market also never last too long be it properties, gold, oil, palm oil and etc and they don’t even last more than 1 years . If luckily you has early position in one of it, and you logical and rational mind will make you sold your position even before it’s fully run out..your assumptions on few quarters of good result doesn’t justify what if this pandemic drag for 1-2 years or even longer you never know right ?
15/08/2020 7:33 AM
Sslee Good morning Philip,
You look too far and too long and forget all the IB analyst need to do their report every quarter base on result from quarter to quarter. So what do you expect?

Just admit you sold your Topglove too early and move on and no need to write long long to lecture every IB in the town.

Everyone know nothing is permanent so enjoy while you can.
15/08/2020 7:46 AM
Michael Dreamun Philip the sour grape!
15/08/2020 7:51 AM
CharlesT Philip finally can sleep a bit better this few days....

Feeling great right?
15/08/2020 8:55 AM
CharlesT https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600329595.jsp

have to go thru the above as well to have a more balance view lah
15/08/2020 9:07 AM
CharlesT maybe Philip is a good long term investor...maybe... i m not sure...

But he is certainly a lousy trader loh...
15/08/2020 9:09 AM
CharlesT n he is also an idiot for not having any clue what is happening in the real world n stock mkt......

read more investment books lah.....lol
15/08/2020 9:12 AM
Russel Whats stocks can post great results and a strong uptrend as what currently happened to gloves?

High PE was market expectations of its earnings peformance 6 months to 1 years down the road.
15/08/2020 9:23 AM
kelvin_ik4u In investment world, nothing is totally right or wrong. In order to convince public and general investors, result performance driven by facts, figure and return of profit are the good proven result. Sadly, over the many years, all mutual funds in the market perform so badly, the best get 8% to 10% yearly in good bull market. Then try to promote figure manipulation, lied to client investors stated earned 50%+ gain over 5 years in total.. Wah, sound like alot.. but in reality.. divide by 5 years compounding rate, each years get 5 to 7% yearly only as it compound over 5 yearly that also if can perform the best.

When economy goes down like this round mid Mar'20 Covid19 issue, all my investor friends put in Philip, Public mutual or insurance investment fund, total capital paper loss 30% to 50% due to this pandemic crisis. I understand MCO lock down & pandemic cause global stock market shock and stock price crash, but the silly here is, even after July'20 till now, with all good tech, glove or health counters share price climb back to historical high, yet these mutual fund still reporting lose -3% to break even of their total capital. How can this be happen? Market in bull period now, yet those so called professional fund mgr unable to capitalize this bull opportunity, still can lose or break even. That's really a big problem in mutual fund mgmt system..

Entire world Fed, center banking institution, leaders & politicians are printing money to stimulate the economy, yet fund mgr still cannot perform and deliver good return profit to client? How can you expect to convince your normal client retailer to trust or support you? Result not justify your voice & perfomance.
15/08/2020 11:32 AM
stockraider This i will tend to agree with Philip, although he sold his topgloves too early at around Rm 8.00 loh...!!

The best decision for gloves investors now, are just cautiously sell b4 too late mah.....!!
15/08/2020 2:40 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Sorry I don't need to run classes, as anyone who has been in using investor.com knows.

The intelligent stock sharing of the investors in my discussion group has already made me more than enough return on my investment value.

You seem to have just started your investment journey.

Good luck.

>>>>>>>>>>

vampires666 philips full of nonsense...
end of the day wanna promote your telegram and classes... puiiiii
15/08/2020 1:38 PM
15/08/2020 4:54 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Don't worry sslee, I have already made many multiples on my investment in topglove, while you are still stuck in your jaks and Insas after 3 years no results to show.

There is your portfolio, and there is my long term portfolio.

Why are you still commenting? Why don't you explain why your Insas with it's huge cash is still trying to cheat investors by doing cash raising rps with yearly dividend instead of giving dividend and cash back to investors? Why are they raising so much cash when they already have so much cash?

Maybe you can start finding out and answering your own questions before questioning others.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Good morning Philip,
You look too far and too long and forget all the IB analyst need to do their report every quarter base on result from quarter to quarter. So what do you expect?

Just admit you sold your Topglove too early and move on and no need to write long long to lecture every IB in the town.

Everyone know nothing is permanent so enjoy while you can.
15/08/2020 7:46 AM
15/08/2020 4:59 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Did you even read my article? No one can know when the epidemic will end. But the simple fact remains, even if covid lasts for 5 years, and every year they earn their maximum profit and assuming no other competitors start building glove making capacity and asp goes up to the maximum value, there is still a limit to production. So look at a company like topglove for example, let's say they make 4 billion in earnings every year for 5 years, which is 10x historical, they are still looking to make 20 billion in earnings. After 5 years still covid continues? If you think rationally, a 67 billion ringgit market cap for a business that will be flooded with competitors and analyst saying it will go to 100 billion?, Do you really think investing at such a price would even be feasible, when you know the growth will slow down?

It's not about when but understanding how it will end that is the part about investing.

It doesn't matter if you are early or late, as long as you are right.



>>>>>>>>>>

Vc Looi You being acting too rational, in market any kind of bull market also never last too long be it properties, gold, oil, palm oil and etc and they don’t even last more than 1 years . If luckily you has early position in one of it, and you logical and rational mind will make you sold your position even before it’s fully run out..your assumptions on few quarters of good result doesn’t justify what if this pandemic drag for 1-2 years or even longer you never know right ?
15/08/2020 7:33 AM
15/08/2020 5:08 PM
Axelrod This is the new normal whether you like it or not. Sorry to say that this is not a one-off event that causes one-off surge in profit. This demand is here to stay.

The pandemic has made a lot of people wake up to realise the need to have sufficient stockpiles of medical supplies. Every country in the world, rich or poor needs sufficient stockpiles. Now even France, Germany and Spain are having second waves. The richest countries in Europe!

Even after Covid the awareness will be there in preparation for the next pandemic. Nobody thought that the virus will still be here in Aug when it started in Feb-Mar but look where we are. And by next year when you thought everyone should be safe after being vaccinated, you will be surprised that Covid is still a problem.

Even the broadband technician who came to my house to fix the internet was wearing gloves. I won't be surprised if more and more non-medical practitioners start to wear gloves. You already see it in F&B and the services sector.

Just like to Internet that caused FB, AMZN and GOOGL to become some of the most valuable companies, so will this. So Philip you think you are rationale but in reality you are blind. Stick to your QL.
15/08/2020 5:11 PM
blood7 loves kavalan solist >>>>>
So the simple answer to why the share prices crashed after an excellent QR? FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT TAKING, CONTRA, VACCINE. WHO KNOWS? Why should you care unless you BOUGHT HIGH something you didn't understand.
>>>>>

exactly, no one will knows why... according to KYY, investment bankers "pakat' to sell down the glove stocks all in tandem to scare you so that they can buy cheap again :) he might be right you know, monitoring the very strange live price action for these stocks nowadays....and also since short selling ban is in effect right, who knows what kind of stunts people does now to buy cheap? lol....

a lot of people has been offering opinions on buy or sell, and i agree with Philip - we should not panic - no FOMO panic buys at the high AND also, please, NO PANIC SELL when some tom dick and nancy shouting Vaccine!Vaccine! you must remember the reason why you buy and when you intended to sell in the first place.... and how about a third option? HOLD ....... i checked some of Philip's sell criteria : - (for example in my case of Top GLove)

-has the market changed? - checked, market is actually better for the company
-has the company's fundamental changed? checked, fundamental couldn't have been better now
-did i do my homework and check the results and financials so everything is in order? checked, record profit and collecting cash like scooping squids...
-how about buying price? checked, average cost at RM3.68...

so my conclusion - i HOLD, no reason to sell, yet..... besides, what to buy if i sell? so many rubbish companies in the market right now that won't even make any money for the next 2 years under covid.....

for those buying price lower than the market price now, may i suggest to you the 3rd option - HOLD?..... Tan Sri just spent >RM50mil of his own money to buy in more stocks this week, so perhaps have a little fate in him? if he burns i don't mind burning with him, anyway my capital is nothing compares to his.....
16/08/2020 2:27 AM
Sslee Haha
Market is like herd mentality. You sell, I sell. You buy, I buy.
So if you sell can consider buying QL, Gkent and Serbak or Kpower or SCIB.
16/08/2020 8:12 AM
CharlesT Sslee if u wanna make money fm stock mkt learn how stock mkt works..not
fighting with the management of the co ...every now n then...

But of course if u enjoy more by doing so than making money then continue loh
16/08/2020 10:25 AM
enigmatic [control your emotions, discipline your mind] So many dupe accounts here with worthless comments, eg vampires666, potentialphilipsil & Aaron__tan
16/08/2020 12:36 PM
enigmatic [control your emotions, discipline your mind] On the topic of gloves stocks, my 2 cents view is that sales of gloves will sustain, in the short term at least.

However, it is unclear if the extraordinary demand for glove stock will sustain.

Judging Supermax, for example, an increase of 2000%+ in profit is great news for the stock and investors should feel hyper optimistic. Share price should appreciate more, but share price tanked instead.
16/08/2020 12:43 PM
Vc Looi if pandemic stay for 5 years, and topglove earn 20 billions for 5 years period, and your assumption is the boss will kept the money earn as donations for themselve ? just assume that boss use that 20 billions to do some other business can that get valuations of 200 billions ?
16/08/2020 1:31 PM
stockraider Yes assume best scenario... topgloves Rm 20b over 5 years...but u r paying Rm 60b...wor??

After 5 yrs u only earn Rm 20b....so u still cannot get back your rm 60b capital mah...!!

U cannot assume the boss can reinvest & earn 100% pa loh...what if the boss reinvest like icap ttb...put in FD earning 2% pa leh ?

Posted by Vc Looi > Aug 16, 2020 1:31 PM | Report Abuse

if pandemic stay for 5 years, and topglove earn 20 billions for 5 years period, and your assumption is the boss will kept the money earn as donations for themselve ? just assume that boss use that 20 billions to do some other business can that get valuations of 200 billions ?
16/08/2020 1:42 PM
Vc Looi stockraider ? are you first day in investment ? 20 billions real cash investment can create Grab which whole valuations of 500 billions..icap is real kiasu fund manager which miss out all bull and bear, that why kept in FD.
16/08/2020 1:57 PM
stockraider HOW U KNOW THAT TOPGLOVES WEE WOULD NOT TURN OUT TO BE A PONDAN, JUST LIKE TTB OF ICAP LEH ?

Posted by Vc Looi > Aug 16, 2020 1:57 PM | Report Abuse

stockraider ? are you first day in investment ? 20 billions real cash investment can create Grab which whole valuations of 500 billions..icap is real kiasu fund manager which miss out all bull and bear, that why kept in FD.
16/08/2020 4:17 PM
blood7 loves kavalan solist wah Sslee now promoting Philip stocks, so you must be a 'mini-Philip' now?lol no Insas here confirmed lo you mini-Philip hahahahaha......


>>>>>>
Sslee Haha
Market is like herd mentality. You sell, I sell. You buy, I buy.
So if you sell can consider buying QL, Gkent and Serbak or Kpower or SCIB.
16/08/2020 8:12 AM
16/08/2020 11:06 PM
blood7 loves kavalan solist vaccine or no vaccine, make your own decision buy sell or hold and live with it....

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/14/coronavirus-supplies-ppe-shortage-fda-395560
16/08/2020 11:07 PM
DickyMe Sour grape trying to justify missed windfall!
16/08/2020 11:21 PM
stockraider U need to understand this loh...!!

Dali is wrong mah...!!

The broker institute this no contra guideline to protect the glove traders & investors and remisier mah..if there is a crash alot of people will go bankrupt mah..!!

Better to let some air out 1st mah...!!

If the purchasers are so confident perhaps they should use their own cash to buy...why need to use remisier limit or margin and endanger much more people to the euphoria leh ?...!!

The brokers are right to institute pre emptive strike loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Aug 17, 2020 12:33 AM | Report Abuse X

This stupid dali say gloves being a commodity they are sign of danger then why he do not allow the brokers to steer away from danger leh ??

I think people should be rational and allow the brokers to take preventive action mah...!!

This will reduce sharp systematic risk mah...!!
17/08/2020 12:38 AM
stockraider U should expect by November cansino vaccine will roll out in Msian market loh....!!

The distributor is Solution mah..!

COVID-19: Indonesia terima vaksin dari China mulai November
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JAKARTA: Indonesia dijangka menerima bekalan vaksin COVID-19 daripada China bermula November ini berikutan persetujuan syarikat biofarmaseutikal China, Sinovac Biotech (Sinovac) membekalkan 50 juta dos vaksin kepada negara itu.

Bekalan vaksin CoronaVac itu akan tiba secara berperingkat mulai November ini hingga Mac tahun depan dengan anggaran 10 juta dos vaksin dibekalkan setiap bulan
22/08/2020 1:26 PM
stockraider So make your monies better run b4 too late loh...!!

Let the greedy sochais hold the glove bags loh...!!

Glove story ending...vaccine coming mah....!!
22/08/2020 2:12 PM
MataTiga ok loh...!! you say like that you win liao lo..!!

congratulations lo..!!

aiya..!!

huhu..!!

Posted by stockraider > Aug 22, 2020 2:10 PM | Report Abuse

So make your monies better run b4 too late loh...!!

Let the greedy sochais hold the glove bags loh...!!

Glove story ending...vaccine coming mah....!!
22/08/2020 2:21 PM

How to Value Family Mart

Author: Philip ( buy what you understand)   |  Publish date: Fri, 7 Jun 2019, 6:04 PM


Hi All,

My name is Philip. Having not been in Melaka for very long, I was very surprised to see the changes (or lack of change) in Melaka. It is a very beautiful state with a lot of very historical buildings. This time around, I traveled in GRAB with my wife, and we had a lovely mini re-enacment of our honeymoon by staying in jonker street itself and enjoying the weekend eating nonya food and walking around the Malacca river.

As usual, I love to scuttlebutt on my trips, so I would love to share my mental model on how I view daily businesses and their competitive advantage.

As we arrived in jonker street late, we stayed in a beautiful boutique hotel in Malacca. It's very reasonably priced, and a very swedish design on safety, cleanliness and size. I stayed in a 400SQFT giant room with its own guest sofa area, and only paid RM230 per night. It is far better than staying at far away double tree surrounded by construction. I believe if you have to stay, stay in jonker street itself, it is a wonderful experience. My honest recommendation = TIMEZ HOTEL right in the center, get the biggest room, its worth it.

Anyway, as I scuttlebutt over, we came across this beautiful store, the 100th branch of Family Mart, right here in jonker street, right next to 7-11.

 

Yes, this was around 10.30 PM at night, and queues were downright silly.


Family Mart here decided to use back the original structure of the old shops in jonker, kept the facade but added their own twists to the tale. They decided to work together with tradition, instead of 7-11 next door, which is just another cookie cutter boring convenience store.


 



 

This was the official 100th unit Family Mart store, just opened last month, and very tastefully done.


There was a huge long queue for oden, ice cream and fresh bread (maybe a little less fresh at midnight) but the queue was incredible.


There was a long queue for good quality cheap hot coffee (at RM2.50) and their unique japanese imported soft served ice cream.


This was 11:15 pm. Yes the queue is tstill there. And yes next door 7-11 was empty.

 

After visiting Family Mart I have a clearer idea of its areas of expertise and its competitive advantage. Here are my views on the business model of Family Mart.

FM is very different from 7-11 and MyNews.

1. They do not sell any newspaper, magazines or low margin products that frankly, not many of the younger generation buy. Even myself, I do my reading online these days. many low margin items you find in other stores are not here. 

2. They specialize in quality freshl baked products like japanese oden, onigiri, instant meals and fresh cooked food that is kept fresh, delivered JIT (just in time fullfillment, I saw 3-4 deliveries per day while I was stying in jonker), and the quality is clearly visible compared to products like bread from massimo and gardenia.

3. They keep mostly specialized products, and are constantly exuding the japanese imported, healthy, clean and green concept to give the idea of high quality goods to buyers. They live off the niche of ( FM > cheaper > japanese restaurant, but FM < better quality < convenience 99 speedmart, 7-11. mynews) as the price is not that much more expensive than the competitors (+10%) in terms of fresh bread, soft serve ice cream, imported sodas and drinks, people are more willing to buy the unique stuff.

4. In terms of sellable items, FM doesn't keep unsellable items like stationary, toys, hardware, household items etc but keeps items only as per local demand (inflatable pillow at Airport, toothbrush, mini shampoo, at jonker etc) There is a system to their stocking inventory architecture which is based on big data, similar to how H&M, ZARA and UNIQLO cycles their product line. Interestingly enough, there is a huge H&M store right at the entrance of jonker street.

5. Their products resonate with day to day crowd who are looking for an experience and comfort rather than just buy and go. As they sell more buy and wait items (gourmet coffee, soft serve ice cream, ODEN) customers are more inclined to wait and stay longer, thus increasing store reputation and buying opportunity. This is very big difference in comparing with a 99-speedmart for example, whose entire goal is to sell cheap, you come in fast and buy what you need and go. Not much in gaining the impulse buying.

If I had to summarize, I would say FM is more on the gourmet fast food convenience store experience than anything else. In Malaysia at least, where there are more and more convenience stores opening, the difference between a local family mart and its competitors are jarring. I wouldn't be surprised to note that the margins afforded to Family Mart would be far far more than its peers, as the average spend in a Family Mart is far higher than its competitition

 

Maxincome resource sdn bhd 

Company number : 383322 - D

Total issued capital - 60,000,000.00

owner - QL Carbon sdn. bhd

Non current assets     : 32.8 million

Current assets            : 15.5 million

non - current liabilities : 208 K

current liabilities          : 22 million

Retained earnings       :-13.89 million

 

Revenue                    : 75.18 million

Profit/loss after tax    : 7.11 million 

 

The analysis of the FM holding company we come to a few conclusions. Based on last year 2018 results, FM had 80 stores. the average revenue per store was 939K, meaning monthly revenue for each store is 78K, meaning daily revenue for each store is RM2,610. Using projections, we can estimate that with 400 stores targeted by the next 10 years , we are estimating revenue of 1 billion from family mart franchise.

Using peer reference, seven-11 has 2250 stores in Malaysia as of 2018 year end, with revenue of 2.26 billion, meaning per store returns of 1 million per year, meaning monthly revenue for each store is 83K, daily revenue is RM2,770 (30 days)

So sales are pretty much inline, profit returns though are interesting.

The average net profit of a 7-11 store is around 2%, from the 2.26 billion generated in 2018, they made a total profit of 44 million. Steady, stable and very predictable.

Family Mart is also, steady stable and very predictable, at around  9.4% profit after tax. 80 stores, 75 million in revenue, 7.11 million in earnings.

Meaning, estimated profit per store is around 88K per year.

You do the math. Also add into the mix additional convergence from QL in terms of surimi production, eggs and broilers meat and bread production. there is a huge organic synergy involved which I do now have the information or the capability to analyze deeply.

Please do not take me at my word. Do your own logic, study your own methodology. Add in your own mental models on what is good and bad. Decide on your own.

Hope you learn something new today.

Philip.




 

Labels: QL
  3 people like this.
 
qqq3 yes, there is product differentiation but any service differentiation cannot be sustained because the workers are of low quality......This is Malaysia not Japan.

Eventually, do not take many years, they are all the same.
08/06/2019 12:02 AM
qqq3 Malaysia, how to get good workers in the service industry?
08/06/2019 12:03 AM
qqq3 eventually no one can differentiate itself ....................all become mediocre and meet at the lowest common denominator.
08/06/2019 12:04 AM
qqq3 this is not to say QL cannot come up with another innovative idea in next 2-3 years to sustain investor interest.

like innovative restaurants and innovative tourism based projects.
08/06/2019 12:22 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I believe workers follow the boss and the system. With a very good system, it matters little what the workers are like, with a good system and minimal training, you will still have a good service level.

If what you said is correct, KFC and McDonald's in Malaysia would be horribly run compared to other countries. And yet, McDonald's service in quick processed, good food, friendly counter service is still the same the world over.

A good system is well worth the franchise cost.
08/06/2019 7:24 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I remain confident that this will remain true.
They have already found innovative ways to grow, but more importantly they have the management in place that allows them to maintain and sustain their growth organically.

My prediction for the coming years:

Family mart will hit 1000 stores in Malaysia in 15 years.

Palm oil plantation will grow 3x the size due to Europe and worldwide accepting 70 fossil/30 biodiesel usage mix technology. The slowdown in Palm oil business will be marked by a sharp and sustained turnaround as fossil fuels become more and more scarce.

Surumi and seafood catch will transition into self-heating/ frozen premade meals as foodtech becomes more and more advanced due to new technology.

More consolidation will occur as the barrier of entry becomes more and more expensive for newcomers as commercial farming becomes more and more tech driven.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

qqq3 this is not to say QL cannot come up with another innovative idea in next 2-3 years to sustain investor interest.
08/06/2019 7:38 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In McDonalds friendly service counter? WAHAHAHAHAHAHAH Joke of the day thanks
08/06/2019 8:11 AM
Sslee Dear Philip,
Let’s do Math:
Seven-11 has 2250 stores in Malaysia as of 2018 year end, with revenue of 2.26 billion, meaning per store returns of 1 million per year
Based on last year 2018 results, FM had 80 stores. the average revenue per store was 939K
The Math tells you Seven eleven has the store sales of 1 million and FM 939K per year.

We can estimate that with 400 stores targeted by the next 10 years, we are estimating revenue of 1 billion from family mart franchise.
The Math tells you if per store revenue is 939K/year then you need 1065 stores to achieve 1 billion revenue/year.

The question now is why with the long queue, FM has the store sales of 939K and Seven-11 1 million? Can FM increase it sales per store in the coming year? Who are the customers that prepare to queue? Can FM evolve from a neighborhood convenient store that serve local community, single person or people on the hurry into serving who family? The answer is yes if Dr. Chia prepare to think out of the box and have confident on the foods FM serve then he should think of KFC and McDonald's model serving FM Japanese Foods to the crowd and whole family in fast foods style.

Thank you
08/06/2019 8:36 AM
judy long queue means bad service, convenient stores should not have queues.
08/06/2019 9:02 AM
stteck Family mart in Tokyo and Shanghai, We queue too....Long queue doesnt mean Bad service...
08/06/2019 9:09 AM
judy if for example, i want to buy a battery, i will buy from 7-11 with no queue, rather than wasting time queueing at FM
08/06/2019 9:22 AM
cheoky Marginal utilities. Upon 400nos FM, bottom line becomes worst. Expand for the sake of expand only. Ntg worth an infinite price
08/06/2019 9:37 AM
Jason Gilbert Ho I think Mr Philip meant that he was at Family Mart at 11.15 pm at night. What convenient stores has long queues at midnight? That is pretty amazing actually - Although I think it is probably more due to the newness of the franchise in Melaka than anything else. We should come back in 3 months and see if the queue is the same as the putu piring nearby.

Posted by jellyfish > Jun 8, 2019 9:02 AM | Report Abuse

long queue means bad service, convenient stores should not have queues.
08/06/2019 9:43 AM
VenFx Well, i guess 80 of fm. Store has a location strategically set out for data statistics collecting .
Of course the true show still need time along with the collecting of the data.
08/06/2019 9:50 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I thought you are giving up on Malaysia and gone to shanghai? Why are you still posting in horrible no future Malaysia investment forum?

In either case, everything has to be based on context. I would say Mcdonalds has exemplary service, when put in the context of the hordes and millions of customers served daily, 2 minute burgers (you can complain many things, slow and badly cooked food is not one of them, even during heavy queues).

As someone who used to work as a waiter in his school days in whitecastle at jalan raja laut (when there was a whitecastle in Malaysia), I can tell you it is easy to be a friendly service counter when the restaurant is near empty, and almost impossible to keep your cool when there are hundreds of hungry barbarians at the gates.

>>>>>>


Heavenly PUNTER UBS Shanghai Future Analyst McDonalds friendly service counter? WAHAHAHAHAHAHAH Joke of the day thanks
08/06/2019 8:11 AM
08/06/2019 9:51 AM
VenFx Interaction amongst fm's networking shall work as its most powerfully tool, marginal wise I'm not so much concern during this period.

But, it does matter for those who want an entrepreneurship with fm outlet.
08/06/2019 9:54 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) That is not the question. the question is how to differentiate your business model and be the market leader in industry.
You need to understand the difference between a KFC and a FM, on has 2-3 staff per location, the other is a full restaurant (10+ workers) with associated costs. One is easily scalable with high profits, the other requires specific locations.

Simple idea of scale:
there are more than 700 locations of KFC : profit margins unknown (until QSR listing soon, but previous QSR annual report 2011 they did 144 million from 2.8 billion revenue for KFC, around 6%)
there are 2250 locations of 7-11: 2% profit margins reselling other peoples items.

I would say Family mart will be the happy-in-between of 1000 locations around Malaysia with higher margin and quality Japanese food, but with 9% profit margins going forward. Dr. Chia does not have to think out of the box. QL bought the franchise and leaving it up to the Japanese management to use big data and fulfillment centers to increase customer purchase locations.

Obviously Cheoky is correct in that as more stores are increased the costs become higher and profit margins lower.

but an interesting point is also how RESILIENT is the business, what is its difficulty of being replaced by a speedmart99 and a Mynews, and how well it can take market share from 7-11 and those other stores.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The question now is why with the long queue, FM has the store sales of 939K and Seven-11 1 million? Can FM increase it sales per store in the coming year? Who are the customers that prepare to queue? Can FM evolve from a neighborhood convenient store that serve local community, single person or people on the hurry into serving who family? The answer is yes if Dr. Chia prepare to think out of the box and have confident on the foods FM serve then he should think of KFC and McDonald's model serving FM Japanese Foods to the crowd and whole family in fast foods style.

Thank you
08/06/2019 10:06 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) cheoky, behind every 99 speedmart and seven-11 is something called a fulfillment center. The distribution warehouse is what determines the bottom line margin of the overall business. Basically the more they expand, the cheaper the overall costs will drop. If they have 5 or 6 convenience stores on one area, it will be far far cheaper to deliver everything fresh to the 6 stores in one go, rather than deliver to one convenience store. This is the true barrier of doing convenience store business and why a lot of small scale family owned minimarket are closing down.

>>>>>
cheoky Marginal utilities. Upon 400nos FM, bottom line becomes worst. Expand for the sake of expand only. Ntg worth an infinite price
08/06/2019 9:37 AM
08/06/2019 10:11 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) FM doesn't sell batteries. you can buy it from 7-11.

You keep thinking 7-11 and FM does the same business model. Look closely, the approach is different, the items on sale is different, the feel and quality is different.

You go to FM combini to buy healthier choice sandwiches, bread, pan and Japanese imported snacks. You buy tasty soft serve ice cream, you get instant hot oden and good tasting coffee.

You go to 7-11 to buy batteries. how often do you really buy batteries from 7-11? The answer is, very rarely.

>>>>>>

Posted by jellyfish > Jun 8, 2019 9:22 AM | Report Abuse

if for example, i want to buy a battery, i will buy from 7-11 with no queue, rather than wasting time queueing at FM
08/06/2019 10:22 AM
Jason Gilbert Ho Hi Mr Lee Soon Shen,

I think you are also missing a big point, with 2250 stores, Seven-11 is making net profit of 44 million ringgit a year, from 2.26 billion of sales. If we give out the same projection, with maximized distribution centers and efficient delivery mechanism and 50% > private label brands (made by QL foods under FM international specifications), Mr Philip is probably looking at a math of 200 million net profit yearly from the same amount of 2250 stores.

not to mention the added direct revenue to QL foods and share profit margins in the long term to QL resources directly.

I'm excited enough to consider buying QL shares (even though it is so expensive now I probably will not. PE50!).

Good wonderful companies does not necessarily make a good wonderful investment.

Unless QL buys over and merges LHI, then I'm all in.
08/06/2019 10:30 AM
cheoky U see only the internal pros of FM, perhaps u managed to visit the best FM in FM group. The issue is there a market to absorb 400FM in msia? Highly not. Perhaps in China yes.
08/06/2019 10:40 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In China everything yes, 5G? Yes. Trade war? Yes. ECRL? Yes. One Belt One Road? Yes. China everything yes, no problem.
08/06/2019 10:42 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Musang King? Yes also.
08/06/2019 10:42 AM
VenFx The more probable measurement is the located spot that willingly of spending power & behavioural. Without this all others becoming unimportantly .
Be it the tourist commercials or the urban area.
08/06/2019 10:47 AM
VenFx With Chia family as the core driver... why worry.
Win win is Chia's family core value mah !
Next unilever maybe kikiki
08/06/2019 10:58 AM
shpg22 There are so many competitor offering the same product as Familymart popping up like mushroom across the country. Even Mynews also start to offering the same thing
08/06/2019 11:09 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Judging from 11pm queues at jonker street, the financial report, the belief is yes, there is room for 400 fm in Malaysia. But I am interested in your logic on "highly not". In either case total population of Malaysia is 32.8 million in 2018, with 1.5% growth rate (roughly 500k increase in population yearly).

>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by cheoky > Jun 8, 2019 10:40 AM | Report Abuse

U see only the internal pros of FM, perhaps u managed to visit the best FM in FM group. The issue is there a market to absorb 400FM in msia? Highly not. Perhaps in China yes.
08/06/2019 11:12 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Hi,

Care to elaborate on same thing?

>>>>>>>

Posted by shpg22 > Jun 8, 2019 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

There are so many competitor offering the same product as Familymart popping up like mushroom across the country. Even Mynews also start to offering the same thing
08/06/2019 11:13 AM
Coffin Dance the queue at 11pm the last few days are invalid. if you want the accurate assessment, come during weekdays, not during the holiday season. If that queue still that long, then yes, the logic can be considered.

we assess normal condition, not unusual event.
08/06/2019 11:18 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I arrived Melaka on Sabah harvest festival 30th May 2019, Thursday, which is normal weekday (I believe west Malaysia does not celebrate harvest festival, as the roads were still empty). the queue during the Friday and weekend at jonker street is far more lively during the pasar minggu at jonker street.

But you are right, you should assess normal condition, not unusal event. Which is why I did not take pictures on the weekends.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by pak_pandir > Jun 8, 2019 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

the queue at 11pm the last few days are invalid. if you want the accurate assessment, come during weekdays, not during the holiday season. If that queue still that long, then yes, the logic can be considered.

we assess normal condition, not unusual event.
08/06/2019 11:40 AM
qqq3 anyway, bringing in FM, a Japanese franchise is a brilliant move.

The days of western franchise is over. When Western franchise meets Japanese franchise , nowadays it is Japanese franchises that wins. Those Japanese are incredible.

Next...don't be surprised China franchises wins ...whoever think selling hot pots in China can make her China's riches woman?



and QL can bring over tiger prawns and Sabah fish restaurants...sure hit.
08/06/2019 12:36 PM
stockraider FM is good but QL is still overvalue & overrated loh....!!

That means all its good needs already fully discounted ,leaving high risk of sharp fall when it did not manage to perform up to its high expectation loh....!!

In Law of probability if u buy....win little but lose will be very big scenario mah....!!
08/06/2019 12:52 PM
qqq3 stockraider > Jun 8, 2019 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

FM is good but QL is still overvalue & overrated loh....!!
===============



whether some thing is worth its price or not depends on market condition and future developments. But what can be knowable is whether it is quality and sustainable stuff or not............

look at your own purchases and OTB shares.....when was the last time u or OTB bought any quality and sustainable stuff?

looking at QL as a whole, the company track record, future prospects and price history.....what u see is what u can......it is surely NOT another of those OTB pump and dump.......................
08/06/2019 1:27 PM
Choivo Capital I really do love the family mart ice cream. There is one that opened near bukit jelutong. I sat outside the place looking for quite sometime, as well as sniffing around inside.

The food, i'm guessing is made in the central kitchen.

The taste is comparable to supermarket grocery food, price is 10-20% higher compared to the Japanese food in those supermarket.

I'm not that big of a fan of the food, much less willing to pay that price, but i think that is mostly me. Most people are willing to pay.

All in all, looks like quite a decent business.

Taking into account the 2018 figures, the question now is, what is the right price to pay?

Extrapolating the current 7.11m profit(lets assume 8m per year with economy of scale) 80 stores to 400 stores. We would look at 40m per year in profit 10 years from now.

Lets say it would be worth 20 times earnings then in 2029 as there would still be some growth prospect. That would be around 800m business. Discounted by risk free rate of 4.5%, the maximum price one should pay today is RM504 milion.

Ql price today is RM 11 billion. By buying QL now, you are paying 10.5bil is from surimi etc which makes 210m per year (2% earning yield) with 5% growth rate over the last 5 years

And 500m for Family Mart (assuming everything goes as planned).

of course, you might then think, 20PE is too cheap. This is family mart, should be minimum PE 50, or worth RM2bil in 2029. or RM1.2bil discounted.

In which case, you are paying RM9.8bil for a surimi business making 210m per year (2.1% earning yield), growing at 5% over the last 5 years. And 1.2bil for a family mart, where every goes right and it is valued at 50 times earnings.

Well, i'm not smart enough to buy, love the ice cream though.
08/06/2019 1:55 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In choivo likes the ice cream, BUY
08/06/2019 2:07 PM
OTB Posted by stockraider > Jun 5, 2019 3:53 PM | Report Abuse

If u follow qqq3 u go holland loh....!!

This qqq3 cannot be trusted loh.....!!

Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 5, 2019 1:59 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Jun 4, 2019 9:30 PM | Report Abuse
for pros like me, I do every thing, any thing, good , bad ugly also I do.

Pro? The performance of the portfolios below shouted sailang and margin by you in the last 3 years surely reflects the "pro" in you.

Stock price then 5-Jun-2019 Gain/loss Gain/loss %
Jaks 1.80 0.73 -1.07 -59%
Sendai 1.40 0.415 -0.99 -70%
Bornoil 0.10 0.045 -0.055 -55%
CBIP 2.25 1.01 -1.24 -55%
Ecoworld 1.29 0.855 -0.435 -34%
Taan 4.79 2.4 -2.39 -50%
Jtiasa 1.35 0.49 -0.86 -64%
Genting w 1.07 0 -1.07 -100%


Stock 10/31/2018 6/5/2019
KESM 12.00 7.00 -41.7%
Layhong 0.400 0.420 5.0%
Seacara 0.280 0.220 -21.4%
D&O 0.890 0.620 -30.3%
Elsoft 1.29 0.785 -39.2%
Hibiscus 1.12 1.04 -7.1%
Pmetal 5.15 4.32 -16.1%

Ans :
At least I am honest to say that I lost money in 2018.
Unlike a liar like qqq3 still claim that he made a lot of money in 2018.

I repeat ...

Posted by stockraider > Jun 5, 2019 3:53 PM | Report Abuse

If u follow qqq3 u go holland loh....!!

This qqq3 cannot be trusted loh.....!!
08/06/2019 3:06 PM
OTB qqq3 is the faked accountant. He was sacked 20 years ago for misconduct. Hence he cannot find any job for last 20 years.

qqq3 is the only big liar in I3.
I just cannot tolerate this big liar.
I am not just cannot tolerate him, I want to curse him.
I never see a person so thick skin and never feel shameful.
Continue to tell lies after lies, bullshit after another bullshit.
People in the market is very efficient to know his bad background.

Sslee described qqq3 as follows :-
Quote !!
So Please stay far away from quack accountant and do not underestimate his hypnotize power as I see many people in this forum still call quack accountant Sifu and ask for his opinion. Only I and KCChong call this good for nothing quack accountant as fake accountant, snake-oil salesman, a fraudster, a backstabber, a bootlicker, an ass-kisser, a shameless manipulator, King of PLP, King of double talk, King of backstabber, King of poison slanderer, King of jealously, King of low life, King of bullshitting and talk cock, King of dishonest, despicable, distasteful, disgusting and evil.
Unquote !!
08/06/2019 3:07 PM
qqq3 otb...how can u know I was sacked when u know nothing about me?


U think I am another of your pump and dump job?
08/06/2019 3:20 PM
qqq3 its a fact isn't it, otb?

whenever the market sneezes, your stocks are the worse...everyone in i3 should know that by now...............
08/06/2019 3:27 PM
qqq3 otb....you comment about me no use one...I never ask people to pay me money for my comments...I never represent myself as stock God or Deity of stock market....only OTB do that.
08/06/2019 3:29 PM
qqq3 I never represent myself as stock God or Deity of stock market....only OTB do that.

and there is only one kind of people who think they are stock god or deity of stock market and ask people to pay them money........and we all know what kind of people, don't we? OTB, u agree?
08/06/2019 3:32 PM
qqq3 otb...I don't mind people asking for money per se...at least want to ask for money go and promote quality stuffs to the masses like 3iii or Philips who do it for free............not your kind of stuffs....

whenever the market sneezes, your stocks are the worse...everyone in i3 should know that by now...............
08/06/2019 3:46 PM
qqq3 when was the last time you bought a share that does not collapse within a short time, OTB?
08/06/2019 3:48 PM
GenghisHoe As at 31 March 2018, the Maxincome Resources Sdn. Bhd.'s (383322-D) accounting data extracted from the CTOS, it shows a net loss of RM 7,111,561 instead of a net profit of RM 7.11 million -- It couldn't have a net margin of 9.4% and also the QL management said that Family Mart business still had not been yet breaking even, how could it make profit as at 31 March 2018?

I think you have to verify the source that you took from.

Anyone who is interested to have the set of FM accounting data, kindly let me know I share with you.
08/06/2019 4:41 PM

SCUTTLEBUTT. LET'S DISCUSS. PETER LYNCH IDEAS.

Author: Philip ( buy what you understand)   |  Publish date: Mon, 18 Mar 2019, 7:19 AM


Hi all, Philip here.

 

Instead of going all in and investing in things I know nothing about, I'd like to harness the power of the I3 investors to see what successful brands, companies and products that they see on an average day that they buy, compete with,or are very impressed with in general in their daily lives.

 

Appreciate if it is something directly related. It doesn't have to be a publicly listed company, but just good in general.

 

I'll start the ball rolling.

 

My daughter likes Uniqlo ( which is owner by fast retailing Japan), because the products are very high quality, very reasonable in price, and its a very neutral daily wear clothing that is no nonsense, but yet very stylish.

 

My wife is a big fan of boost. She doesn't quite understand the business model, but everytime we eat out and there is change to be paid, she just shakes her phone and the change is paid. Plus she just got rm5 cashback rebate from nowhere suddenly.

 

I'm recently a big fan of wix. Its very difficult to learn a new skill like website creation, but I believe the skill will be essential in the future one day when majority of business will be conducted online. I'm very impressed with using Wix as a free website builder. It's very useful, easy to learn and edit, and it can get quite addictive adding new features, changing themes and colours, adding special effects etc to my website without any special coding skills. I managed to make a website which I think is good enough to not embarrass myself against the websites that friends of mine paid professional companies 5-20k to build.

 

In terms of business wise, our company 3rd biggest in terms of increasing orders, and number 1 in terms of payment reliability is ql resources. So far their warehousing expansion, chiller equipment and other machine orders are more this year than the past 5 years in Sabah.

 

For my wife, her biggest advice so far is to avoid all the construction companies. The amount of approved loans is drastically dropping at the management level, and a lot of developers are overextended with high levels of servicing debt and slow sales. And public Bank is already one of the toughest lenders around.

 

So that's it for my end. Let's share and share alike. Give me some ideas on what you see on a daily basis and I'll share my 5 cents.

 

Philip

  Be the first to like this.
 
qqq3 Instead of going all in and investing in things I know nothing about, I'd like to harness the power of the I3 investors to see what successful brands, companies and products that they see on an average day that they buy, compete with,or are very impressed with in general in their daily lives.
=============

If u consider b to b not just b to c, then Vitrox has to be up there.

Malaysia is a technology importer, a trend importer, a brands importer....NOT a creator. Vitrox is the only true technology creator , trend creator and brands creator Bursa has to offer.
18/03/2019 7:33 PM
qqq3 Malaysia is a technology importer, a trend importer, a brands importer....NOT a creator. Vitrox is the only true technology creator , trend creator and brands creator Bursa has to offer.....besides the gloves guys......and besides Yinson and their fpso.
18/03/2019 7:36 PM
qqq3 How to make money from Bursa?

Keep it simple, but not too simple.

KYY did the first part right...he keeps it very simple.


only problem is....some times too simple and lose back.
18/03/2019 7:44 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Unker unkers, I found one, Gree Electric, listed in China Board, make aircond one. Very good have a look, Yale University Fund also got buy!!
18/03/2019 8:41 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Company of Dong Ming Zhu, One of China's most successful Woman!
18/03/2019 8:45 PM
qqq3 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/198472.jsp


goes to show scuttle butts and fallen angels also can make a lot of money for u or lose a lot of money for u....its all in the timing.


they say u cannot do timing...............


but what happens if u can? Last 3 months profits all come from timing.
19/03/2019 12:04 AM
qqq3 Instead of going all in and investing in things I know nothing about, I'd like to harness the power of the I3 investors to see what successful brands, companies and products that they see on an average day that they buy, compete with,or are very impressed with in general in their daily lives.
=====================


brands, companies and products 5 years, 10 years better than today.........where to find? how to find? how to be sure? where would Apple be in 5 years, 10 years?

I only know Huawei will be better in 5 years, 10 years.
19/03/2019 1:37 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I think it's sad when we struggle to invest in bursa only to realize that overseas companies are so much more efficient in managing their business than the majority of local companies.

Having said that, I buta buta follow Warren buffet invest big in STNE, now jump to usd40 from usd19 in 3 months. Crazy. Double revenue and earnings every year with its latest earnings report.

Those who tell you they can do timing, you have to check how often they are right over 10 years, cannot just 3 months.

Vitrox may or may not be a wonderful company, but I have never seen or used the products, and I don't know anybody who does. So is not a good candidate to SCUTTLEBUTT.

Gree sounds interesting, buy I don't see them doing anything unique, unlike Dyson, which my daughter shared with her mother to buy a rm2000 HAIR DRYER. I am really not understanding this. I think Dyson is the Apple of consumer products...
19/03/2019 6:12 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) How do you know that? Huawei is a private company where the CEO practises nepotism and hands the company down to his kids instead of a worthy successor. Those kinds of companies rarely do well in the long run. And the financials are very private and unclear, which makes you wonder what is really going on in there.

>>>>>>
I only know Huawei will be better in 5 years, 10 years.
19/03/2019 01:37
19/03/2019 6:14 AM
rajachulan I admire chinese lao gan ma chilli oil... was first seen it when i was studying NZ intro by my chinese roommate...

I remember to saw in one of her interview... when reporter ask her why not listing her company to get more capital to expand her already expanded/ world wide well known business... she said...

she doesnt want to cheats public money!!!!!!!!!!!!!

btw... dont be suprise if you dont know this wonderful chilli oil... because her company is not listed, no financing, no loan and no AD!...

if you havent tried the chilli oil... i recommended you to give it a try... I am still eating it today after so many years...
19/03/2019 8:28 AM
qqq3 y (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 19, 2019 06:14 AM | Report Abuse

How do you know that? Huawei is a private company where the CEO practises nepotism and hands the company down to his kids instead of a worthy successor. Those kinds of companies rarely do well in the long run. And the financials are very private and unclear, which makes you wonder what is really going on in there.
===========

back in 2010, independent experts are already saying Huawei will be world champion, China's best hope. Huawei lives up to its potential....and more.

Such companies will not disappoint you.
19/03/2019 9:10 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Unker Philip, China has really some of the best companies in the world lo. Gree Electric I feel the fundamentals very good (maybe not so popular in local market, but in China really geng lah). Look at Midea Group also, not bad (aircond maker)
19/03/2019 9:50 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Yes, my daughter brought it back, not too bad. funny enough, not available in Sabah. She brought it all the way back from California the first time. Then we bought some in HK last month. My daughter loves spicy flavours..

>>>>
I admire chinese lao gan ma chilli oil... was first seen it when i was studying NZ intro by my chinese roommate...
19/03/2019 9:51 AM
silom pump petrol at Petron, my family like the oden at familymart, my kids prefer Starbucks coffee instead of the mamak store, seldom visit bank now cuz can do all the banking via smartphone and internet, pay the the bills using online banking, use maxis and digi line, tm unify, tnb electricity , syabas water , Panasonic aircond, my wife buy medicine at caring, drive Japanese cars , my family like to shop at pavilion, One utama, mid valley
19/03/2019 10:01 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) haha gree and midea tried to come into sarawak market, via sibu "tax free " shipping. Personally I ban gree, its the cheapest in the market for sure, but the support, warranties and make me stick to the usual daikin, panasonic and acson for VRV and projects.

It's probably good in china, but the expansion plans overseas leave me with dry lips. I prefer long term thinking from chinese manufacturers other than cheapest price only.

Maybe one day I can spot a China version of dyson, apple and google which sell not on price but on a quality basis.

Hua wei might get there, but not on its own right, its been backpacked by chinese government all the way.
19/03/2019 10:07 AM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Okay Unker Philip, by the way have you heard of baijiu before? Like Maotai or Wuliangye? Insanely crazy high profit margins! Those are 2 of my favourite but went up quite substantially already, maybe can take a look, but their market is China people mainly
19/03/2019 10:09 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) hi silom,

1) do you buy at petron because its the nearest or any other reason? if a shell opened up nearer, would you frequent that instead?
2)caring is interesting, but recently I always stock up my medicine at big pharmacy. you would believe the price gap. If you buy medicine for the whole family and friends in big pharmacy, the cost difference is enough to pay for the flight back (AA) to Sabah alone. pharmacists here charge way too much.
3) yes i love the oden as well.
19/03/2019 10:14 AM
silom Yes petron is the nearest , but my wife drive to pump shell because she want to collect bonuslink points... sometime don’t know what the lady is thinking
19/03/2019 10:23 AM
qqq3 we only use BP. My wife says BP got the best rebates also nearest to house.
19/03/2019 10:35 AM
qqq3 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/198546.jsp

no blind blind buy
19/03/2019 10:59 AM
qqq3 How to make money from stock market?

I think Bursa is easier than going to unfamiliar territory....unless u got Stone .......lol.
19/03/2019 11:03 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Haha well I have 200k shares in STNE, follow Warren buffalo and Alibaba SCUTTLEBUTT. But in the end I liked the company enough to buy it at usd19.

Now went up to USD 41. So SCUTTLEBUTT is only the beginning. You still need to understand the company and read the financials.
19/03/2019 11:28 AM
antoniomc27 Here go mine. Imma millennial, and I am an expat. Readers beware...

1) Msia (and Asia in general) has a problem with plastic.

2) Msia will have a huge problem with diabetes... basically people have to choose between taking nasi lemak or milo + cookies for breakfast. I am mocked at when I take out my apple snack during work.

3) My mother refuses to trust anything that is not a traditional bank. Calls anything else, a scam.

4) Love my Touch N Go since the very first day that arrived in Msia (CIMB recently targeted in their Forward23 plan to reach 2.5 billion valuation... In my opinion, can do. But they must vastly improve customer support, I heard it sucks).

5) Being used to the low quality of low cost airlines in Europe, Air Asia is a breeze. Plus I have been using BigPay lately and I like it.

6) I work in Sendayan (Seremban) and commute to KL almost everyday. The highway is world-class.

7) It always amazes me the quantity of housing overhang... despite that, my foreign boss also tells me that he has been hearing rumors of bubble bursting since he landed here 6 years ago.

8) Grab has been abusing his position since Uber left... a serious and solid incumbent is needed, fast.

9) Crazy that this country doesn't have any fast train SG-KL-Penang or SG-KL-BKK...

10) TNB prices are crazy expensive for industrial, and crazy cheap for domestic. Water also cheap for domestic. So much so that Msians don't care about saving. That's living in a subsidized bubble, I don't like it.
19/03/2019 10:55 PM
qqq3 anto

and in America, two thirds of the people do not have US$ 500 in the bank at any moment.

Malaysia not like that.
19/03/2019 11:21 PM
stockraider Don get it wrong loh.....!!

If listen to naysayers u are doomed loh....!!

SAPE success is not only base on oil price mah.....it got rm 19.3 billion contract in hand....works is going on...whether oil price is usd 58 or usd 78... works will keep going...bcos already contractually committed mah...!!

The other thing sape oilfield assets...the oil field production cost is only USD 20...now oil price brent is usd 67 mah....even it drop to usd 47 per barrel still make alot of monies loh....!!

Thats why raider very confident sure rm 3.00 in 3 yrs time loh...!!
This is bcos contract is going to increase to rm 40b and oil production going to increase by 4x loh.....!!
19/03/2019 11:23 PM
stockraider REMEMBER:

ONE POSITIVE POWERFUL BULL OF BULLS STOCK LIKE Sapnrg WILL MAKE UP FOR YOUR OTHER LOSSES IN BAD STOCK!!!

DO IT AND DO IT NOW!!

Do it fast b4 too late to profit the most loh....!!
19/03/2019 11:27 PM
stockraider Don forget SAPNRG is an integrated mini petronas....thats why PNB are so bullish and willing to dump in huge monies increasing their stake from 12% to 48% loh...!!

PNB don have to do that, unless they are highly confident on this stock loh...!!

As most O&G stocks like Carimin, Naim, Dayang & Penergy have gone up 100% to 200% from its lows Raider has unearthed another Great O&G Stock yet to run up

That Stock is Sapnrg.

At Its early days of IPO (2013 to 2014) Sapnrg O&G Was As High As Rm7.00

But in Year 2014 Due to Brent Crude Oil price crashed to a low of USD27 Petronas cut down from 39 Oil Rigs to only 14 Oil Rigs

As a result Sapnrg 0&G business contracted & its share price collapsed all the way till now (Sapnrg was later sold to Amanah Saham Bumi)

AND NOW THESE ARE SOME VERY GOOD TURNING POINTS FOR Sapnrg

1) PETRONAS HAS INCREASED UPSTREAM EXPENSE FROM RM11.5 BILLIONS (2018) TO RM15 BILLIONS (2019) THIS YEAR

That means that there will be EXTRA 30% CASH INFUSION INTO UPSTREAM O&G ACTIVITIES

CARIMIN, DAYANG, PENERGY, BINTULU PORT HAVE SEEN INCREASING REVENUES DUE TO O&G ACTIVITIES FOR YEAR 2018. AND GOING INTO YEAR 2019 IT WILL SEE EVEN MORE ACTIVITIES

All Due to these Factors

2)) Brent Crude Price has gone back up above USD65.00 per barrel

SO IT IS VIABLE TO EXTRACT MORE OIL

3) Govt wants more Dividend from Petronas (Currently Petronas gave Rm24 Billions usual dividend PLUS A Special Dividends of RM30 Billions = Total Rm54 BILLIONS)

4) RAPID REFINERY In Completion also require EXTRA 54.7 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE YEARLY
So all these Converging Factors Have Fired Up O&G Stocks

5) Sapuranrg HAS RECEIVED 6 JOB AWARDS SINCE YEAR 2018

Making a Very Good Track Record of securing over Rm 5 Billion Ringgit Revenue for Year 2018 & 2019
And More Jobs going into Year 2019 as PETRONAS IS STEPPING UP OIL EXPLORATION.
At the moment sapnrg got rm 16 billion order books in hand.

6) SEEING SUCH GOOD PROSPECTS PNB BUMI HAS BOUGHT More sapnrg raising their stake from 12% to 48% injecting about Rm 2 billion loh...!!

7) ALTHOUGH Sapnrg HAS 16 BILLION SHARES ITS TOP 30 HOLDERS ARE AMANAH SAHAM BUMI, PNB & TOP LOCAL & FOREIGN FUNDS
80% ARE OWNED BY THESE STRONG HOLDERS.
Only 4 billion shares are in freefloat.

8) SINCE PENERGY, CARIMIN & DAYANG HAVE ALREADY RUN UP SO MUCH IN PRICE IT IS A WISE STRATEGY TO TAKE SOME PROFITS IN THESE & BUY SOME LAGGARD Sapnrg.

9) Sapnrg COULD BE ANOTHER DAYANG OR A HIDDEN GEM...raider has estimated it overtake Pchem mkt capitalization in 3 yrs time loh..!!

10) JUST LIKE NAIM WAS SOLD DOWN TO 45 SEN AFTER CAPITAL EXERCISE Sapnrg HAS ALSO BEEN SOLD DOWN TO ONLY 23.5 SEN (DUE TO CAPITAL EXERCISE RECENTLY)

Share just like NAIM AT 50 SEN. NAIM REACHED RM1.00 FOR 100% UPSIDE RECENTLY

SO Sapnrg IS NOW 32 SEN

WHAT IS THE TARGET PRICE FOR Sapnrg?

Raider HAS A 3 YEAR TARGET PRICE FOR Sapnrg AT RM 3.00 loh...!
19/03/2019 11:27 PM
stockraider here is no other oil and gas stock so safe like Sape right now

Sape has

1. Superior Assets
Most oil rigs and HWUs are only 2 to 5 years old
And they are chun chun at the right time in the right place... Just when Petronas is recommissioning moth-balled oil rigs and clod up oil wells

2. Superior Paymasters
Jobs contracted from Petronas, Aramco and Shell ensure prompt payments

3. Superior Balance sheet
Of the 3 heavyweights Sapnrg gearing only 0.64 All backed by valuable real assets in oil rigs and HWUs and most importantly very valuable oil and gas fields.

4. Superior Price

Sape was once over rm 5.00
Now only 34.5 sen
The opportunity for upside is immense while losses almost negligible .

5. Big order books and increasing

Its contract in hand todate or order books Rm 19.3 billion and it is increasing everyday and minutes loh...!!

This is it

Go for Sape today!!!
19/03/2019 11:28 PM
stockraider Study carefully...sape is value, contraian, turnaround, growth investment all in one play mah....!!

It can be value investment & but it can cover in even more....but most important it has very big margin of safety loh...!!

It is sure make monies play loh....!!

DO NOT DESPAIR IF SAPNRG JUST SHOOT UP LOH...!!

IT IS OPPORTUNITY IF PROFIT TAKING THE PRICE TEMPORARY FALL, JUST PICK UP VERY BIG AND LOCK UP. U WILL NEVER REGRET LOH...!!

REMEMBER THIS LOH...!!

"No problem loh....out of 100 people only 1 person really make monies on sapnrg mah.....!!

Sape long way to go ....the coming turnaround will be very strong loh...!!"

LOOKING AT THE ABOVE FACT ARE U NOT CONVINCE AND CONFIDENT TO JUMP IN WITHOUT HESITATION LEH ??
19/03/2019 11:28 PM
stockraider U need to stick to champion mkt leader stock in the O&G industry to ensure longterm sustainability loh...!!

What are the champion mkt leader stock in the Oil & Gas Industry leh ??

There are 2 chun chun abang adik stock loh ??

1 It is Velesto with TP Rm 2.00 over 3 yrs 3 mths now only 30.5 sen.

2. Sape with Tp Rm 3.00 over 3 yrs 3 mths now only 34.5 sen.!!

Both of these leaders are owned by PNB and had undergone massive restructuring to strengthen its financial & viability loh...!!

Yes u can jump to other oil & gas stock....but most have gone up alot ,furthermore their sprint up are short term and not sustainable loh...!!

Just stick to quality and undervalue the twin very important point for strong sustain gain loh.....!!
19/03/2019 11:28 PM
stockraider TOMORROW FIRST THING MARKET OPEN

1) BUY AS MUCH SAPE AS YOU CAN AFFORD

2) CANNOT AFFORD? THEN SELL OTHER DEAD STOCKS & GO LOAD UP ON SAPNRG

3) ALSO SELL OTHER "GOOD STOCKS" THAT CANNOT GIVE YOU 300% TO 1000% & BUY THE GOLDMINE SAPE

SELL THE GOOD AND BUY THE VERY BEST

YES!!!

SAPE WILL BE THE BEST EVER RETURN IN YOUR LIFETIME INVESTMENT...!!

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND STOCK THAT CAN GIVE U 300% TO 1000% GAIN OVER ABOUT 3 YRS PERIOD LOH...!!

DON MISS THIS GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY LOH...!!

U NEED TO FOCUS, CONCENTRATE & BANG ON THIS PARTICULAR STOCK GOLDEN WINNING MAH....!!
19/03/2019 11:29 PM
stockraider The above is General raider very outstanding contribution to oil & gas scuttle butt....that even Peter Lynch very is impress loh...!!
19/03/2019 11:31 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) 1) I also believe the days of plastic producing companies are numbered.
2) sugar producers are also going to be having a problem. I'd like to think that sooner or later there will be legislation because lets face it, sugar is addictive.
3) Do millenials think the same way also?
4) Personally I dont use touch and go, as I think there must be better ways of solving highway problem.
5) I almost always travel via AA or silkair.
6) I'm impressed that you can survived the traffic jam. I'd rather take lower pay and work in a place where I can spend my most important resource better than to earn more and trade it for time (which is a finite resource and has far better compounding returns long term than a monthly salary)

For me I think 7) is not exactly accurate. There is not enough housing for everybody actually. Its just that majority of Malaysians cannot afford to buy their own home. If the price of housing is measured versus our GDP, per capita growth, majority of housing prices will be sub 300K. however due to speculations... I believe if we are looking for investing into developers we need to look for those that are into developer/contractor/credit type of vertical integration, those will usually aim to do projects were the selling price is within 300K range for 1000 sqft homes. Value for money will always find buyers.

8) when grab raises its prices to reduce its debt load, there will definitely be new competition. It's not that difficult to create a new taxi company.

9)Marty McFly: Hey, Doc. You’d better back up, we don’t have enough road to get up to 88.
Dr. Emmett Brown: Roads? Where we going we don’t need roads.

10) tnb can be more efficient im sure. we just dont have an efficient competitor.
19/03/2019 11:41 PM
stockraider U better sell ur pchem loh....!! cakap n buat tak serupa loh...!!

Don con people loh....!!

Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 19, 2019 11:41 PM | Report Abuse

1) I also believe the days of plastic producing companies are numbered.
2) sugar producers are also going to be having a problem. I'd like to think that sooner or later there will be legislation because lets face it, sugar is addictive.
3) Do millenials think the same way also?
4) Personally I dont use touch and go, as I think there must be better ways of solving highway problem.
5) I almost always travel via AA or silkair.
6) I'm impressed that you can survived the traffic jam. I'd rather take lower pay and work in a place where I can spend my most important resource better than to earn more and trade it for time (which is a finite resource and has far better compounding returns long term than a monthly salary)

For me I think 7) is not exactly accurate. There is not enough housing for everybody actually. Its just that majority of Malaysians cannot afford to buy their own home. If the price of housing is measured versus our GDP, per capita growth, majority of housing prices will be sub 300K. however due to speculations... I believe if we are looking for investing into developers we need to look for those that are into developer/contractor/credit type of vertical integration, those will usually aim to do projects were the selling price is within 300K range for 1000 sqft homes. Value for money will always find buyers.

8) when grab raises its prices to reduce its debt load, there will definitely be new competition. It's not that difficult to create a new taxi company.

9)Marty McFly: Hey, Doc. You’d better back up, we don’t have enough road to get up to 88.
Dr. Emmett Brown: Roads? Where we going we don’t need roads.

10) tnb can be more efficient im sure. we just dont have an efficient competitor.
19/03/2019 11:43 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) wow start to spam every thread again. stick to topic la. why make so many thread if everyone you post your same hardsell bulsshit.

so low class.
19/03/2019 11:57 PM
stockraider scuttle butt on oil mah...!!

Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 19, 2019 11:57 PM | Report Abuse

wow start to spam every thread again. stick to topic la. why make so many thread if everyone you post your same hardsell bulsshit.

so low class.
19/03/2019 11:59 PM
stockraider Posted by spinninglotus > Mar 19, 2019 11:50 PM | Report Abuse

Chow Pi Master
It is not easy to get electric into aeroplane
Same applies to Ships

Why I said so?
I will tell you more in the future

Indeed, to generate electric batteries, you need a lot of toxic materials coming out from earth
Look at solar panels toxic waste
You will be scared

LNG is the clean future energy
China is also adopting it

Electric cars?
You know its limitations
Only rich people can own
High maintenance
Batteries cannot last long
Batteries waste another major pollution
20/03/2019 12:09 AM
michaelwong Aiyoh! 3 yrs and 3 mths for this 2 penny stocks to gain (300-1000) % profits ah ??? Are you for real or living in self imagination and denying mode ? Hahahaha !!!! You have not make up your mind to come to reality loh...if that's the case bro !!! Market forces and activities differ from time to time mah..... so it may sometimes miscalculated and shattered your golden dreams mah....!!! But can try lah...aiyoh .... put small money in return for big money..... but the dream must come true and achieve its possibilities goal not half way missing in action...loh !
20/03/2019 12:25 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I don't need to use Facebook. I prefer to keep my list of friends small, and keep in touch with them as often as possible. Do you really need to know what your other 3000 friends are doing on a daily basis? I really don't think everyone sitting over the dinner table looking at their phones instead of talking to each other to be sustainable long term.

What is TSMC? What products or solutions do they sell locally in Malaysia that we can buy or are exposed to directly?

>>>>>

TSMC, i think you will like this one as well.
20/03/2019 7:26 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) https://youtu.be/bLjoL5zhBxA

Interesting talk. Scuttlebutt activity start at 9:00
21/03/2019 6:57 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Here is a new one, I've recently test driven with my daughter the new proton x70, and I must say with the top end model, it is very very impressive. Its a very well built and very well priced car. Impressive indeed.
21/03/2019 9:18 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Wah Unker Philip, you didn't each your daughter to never buy new car meh?? Depreciation like crazy leh new car !
21/03/2019 9:20 PM
stockraider Don listen to misleading Philip advice loh....!!

Just imagine u put the dividend and any excess cash in SAPE instead at rm 0.35 per share and hold tightly for 3 yrs 3 mths time....u get marvelous return of SAPE price of Rm 3.00 mah...!!

This is much much more than the power of compounding loh...!!

Why waste time leh ??
Plough it on SAPE the most prifitable ONG stock in msia loh .....!!

Gather ur confidence it is time to buy big mah....!!


Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 21, 2019 9:03 PM | Report Abuse

Perfect. Next week dividend 18 cents out for me to buy another block at discount rate.

Why pay 9.30 for PCHEM when you can buy it for rm9? Next week when dividend comes out the price should drop a bit too stabilise, even more discounts.

Wonderful...


(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip
1023 posts
Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 21, 2019 9:15 PM | Report Abuse

Let's imagine, wth the incoming dividend of rm269,136.00, if the share price is as 9.30, I can only buy 28,900 shares. If on the other hand the share price is at rm9, I get to buy 29,900 shares. That's a discount of 1000, shares which in the long run matters a great deal.

The power of compounding!
21/03/2019 9:25 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Which is why I didn't buy the latest range Rover evoque instead. Why pay for an expensive car when you can buy a cheap one?

New car got lower interest rates. Old car/sports car/recon car high interest, high depreciation. Old car a lot of maintenance problems, many minor issues.

But in Sabah no choice, transportation is an issue, we can't function without a car unlike in KL.


>>>>>>>
Wah Unker Philip, you didn't each your daughter to never buy new car meh?? Depreciation like crazy leh new car !
22/03/2019 9:18 PM
stockraider REMEMBER SCUTTLE BUTT HAVE POSITIVE & NEGATIVE MAH....!!

BELOW IS A NEGATIVE SCUTTLE BUTT LOH....!!

THAT MEAN PROSPECT MO GOOD LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 22, 2019 9:23 PM | Report Abuse X

But these fertiliser or methanol thing consist of only 40% of Pchem profit contribution compare with plastic resin thing 60% woh....!!

U cannot pusing pusing like gasing....losing 60% of profit contribution is a disaster to pchem and even losing 20% is already very bad mah...!!

Thats why raider say Philip cakap & bikin tak serupa cannot be trusted loh....!!

He will manipulate u to his advantage, even he know something is wrong loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > Mar 22, 2019 1:19 PM | Report Abuse X

Do u understand substantial 60% of the profit of Pchem comes from production of raw material of plastic ie RESIN mah ??

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 22, 2019 11:57 AM | Report Abuse

Raider you forgot PCHEM don't do plastics only ?

Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > Mar 22, 2019 9:10 PM | Report Abuse

Stoneraider, you really don't have a brain, so I'll just pity you instead. You like to take words without considering the context. When I am responding to someone, it is because I agree that companies producing plastic straws and, plastic bags and rubbish bags ( like you) have no future. There are many ways of making use of products like olefin and aromatics into highly usable products.

FYI samur does not produce plastics, it produced fertilizer ( urea).
Their other plants in kertih and upcoming PIC also produce many petrochemicals and aromatics that can be made into many many useful products for day use ( you really think PCHEM producing straws and plastic bags? Really).

It's people's like you when you spam other thread with your nonsense that you hurt the general public. Bringing them into investing in stupid stocks and useless future.

Can you stop polluting other thread and just start your own blog? I promise I won't read anything you write...
>>>>>>>

1) Msia (and Asia in general) has a problem with plastic.
22/03/2019 9:30 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Okay okay sell PChem buy Sapura !!!!
22/03/2019 9:34 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Day3/199874.jsp

Hai Di Lao, another of my CALL
27/03/2019 8:40 PM

BOOKS TO READ or HOW TO CHANGE YOUR LIFE OVER THE WEEKEND.

Author: Philip ( buy what you understand)   |  Publish date: Sat, 23 Feb 2019, 8:57 AM


“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time -- none, zero. You'd be amazed at how much Warren reads--and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”


― Charles T. Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger

 

 

I find that Charlie munger is one of the funniest and coolest people I have ever seen. His wit is incredible.

All I have to say is read this book:

(for those who can't afford to buy the book: here is it. https://mega.nz/#!3gZQAKaQ!85qVu-tenWiHLzEaGpa2bvkk4nC3GtUxax6_AOtHMlI

Don't forget to buy copies and pass it around when you get rich)

SOME BASIC SUMMARY OF THINGS TO GRASP.

I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don’t believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody’s that smart…”

 

Munger advises you understand the ‘BIG IDEAS’ from a wide range of subjects – from philosophy, science, physics, investing, and so on. This ‘latticework’ of mental models will help you come to correct conclusions by viewing the problem from multiple vantage points.

“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ’em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.
 
You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience – both vicarious and direct – on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and fail in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.”
 
As this quote suggests, Munger relied heavily on mental models in his pursuit to understand the world around him. Munger thought it was important to understand the “big ideas” from the “big disciplines,” and generalize from there:
 
“You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely – all of them, not just a few. Most people are trained in one model – economics, for example – and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the old saying: To the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a dumb way of handling problems.”
 
In investing, basically what he means is you need to understand the overall business first, ALL of its peers, where the industry itself is going, and start to generalize certain concepts from there. If you look at a business and only see SHARE PRICE, you will start to dive down only into TECHNICAL ANALAYSIS and put everything in that scheme, with disastrous results (buying high selling higher, momentum investing into a sudden correction). If you look at the inverse and only see RISK AVERSION, then you will dive down only into margin of safety and only see net assets and liquidation returns, not caring what the business is actually doing with the asset performance itself. And if you look in the middle and see only VALUE INVESTING in vaccum, then you only close your mind from multiple possibilities and only see simple things like price to earnings, debt to equity, free cash flow and book value, not realizing that buying average companies for wonderful prices is subpar to buying wonderful companies for fair prices.
 
WHO IS CHARLIE MUNGER?
 
I'll let his partner in crime describe it himself:
 
Charlie Straightens Me Out
 
My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance. Even then, however, I made a few exceptions to cigar butts, the most important being GEICO. Thanks to a 1951 conversation I had with Lorimer Davidson, a wonderful man who later became CEO of the company, I learned that GEICO was a terrific business and promptly put 65% of my $9,800 net worth into its shares.
 
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked. But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well.
 
In addition, though marginal businesses purchased at cheap prices may be attractive as short-term investments, they are the wrong foundation on which to build a large and enduring enterprise. Selecting a marriage partner clearly requires more demanding criteria than does dating. (Berkshire, it should be noted, would have been a highly satisfactory “date”: If we had taken Seabury Stanton’s $11.375 offer for our shares, BPL’s weighted annual return on its Berkshire investment would have been about 40%.)
 
************
It took Charlie Munger to break my cigar-butt habits and set the course for building a business that could combine huge size with satisfactory profits. Charlie had grown up a few hundred feet from where I now live and as a youth had worked, as did I, in my grandfather’s grocery store. Nevertheless, it was 1959 before I met Charlie, long after he had left Omaha to make Los Angeles his home. I was then 28 and he was 35. The Omaha doctor who introduced us predicted that we would hit it off – and we did.
 
If you’ve attended our annual meetings, you know Charlie has a wide-ranging brilliance, a prodigious memory, and some firm opinions. I’m not exactly wishy-washy myself, and we sometimes don’t agree. In 56 years, however, we’ve never had an argument. When we differ, Charlie usually ends the conversation by saying: “Warren, think it over and you’ll agree with me because you’re smart and I’m right.”
 
What most of you do not know about Charlie is that architecture is among his passions. Though he began his career as a practicing lawyer (with his time billed at $15 per hour), Charlie made his first real money in his 30s by designing and building five apartment projects near Los Angeles. Concurrently, he designed the house that he lives in today – some 55 years later. (Like me, Charlie can’t be budged if he is happy in his surroundings.) In recent years, Charlie has designed large dorm complexes at Stanford and the University of Michigan and today, at age 91, is working on another major project.
 
From my perspective, though, Charlie’s most important architectural feat was the design of today’s Berkshire. The blueprint he gave me was simple: Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.
 
Altering my behavior is not an easy task (ask my family). I had enjoyed reasonable success without Charlie’s input, so why should I listen to a lawyer who had never spent a day in business school (when – ahem – I had attended three). But Charlie never tired of repeating his maxims about business and investing to me, and his logic was irrefutable. Consequently, Berkshire has been built to Charlie’s blueprint. My role has been that of general contractor, with the CEOs of Berkshire’s subsidiaries doing the real work as sub-contractors.
 
The year 1972 was a turning point for Berkshire (though not without occasional backsliding on my part – remember my 1975 purchase of Waumbec). We had the opportunity then to buy See’s Candy for Blue Chip Stamps, a company in which Charlie, I and Berkshire had major stakes, and which was later merged into Berkshire. See’s was a legendary West Coast manufacturer and retailer of boxed chocolates, then annually earning about $4 million pre-tax while utilizing only $8 million of net tangible assets. Moreover, the company had a huge asset that did not appear on its balance sheet: a broad and durable competitive advantage that gave it significant pricing power. That strength was virtually certain to give See’s major gains in earnings over time. Better yet, these would materialize with only minor amounts of incremental investment. In other words, See’s could be expected to gush cash for decades to come.
 
The family controlling See’s wanted $30 million for the business, and Charlie rightly said it was worth that much. But I didn’t want to pay more than $25 million and wasn’t all that enthusiastic even at that figure. (A price that was three times NET TANGIBLE ASSETS made me gulp.) My misguided caution could have scuttled a terrific purchase. But, luckily, the sellers decided to take our $25 million bid.
 
To date, See’s has earned $1.9 billion pre-tax, with its growth having required added investment of only $40 million. See’s has thus been able to distribute huge sums that have helped Berkshire buy other businesses that, in turn, have themselves produced large distributable profits. (Envision rabbits breeding.) Additionally, through watching See’s in action, I gained a business education about the value of powerful brands that opened my eyes to many other profitable investments.
 
************
 
I hope you learned something,
 
Philip
  Choivo Capital likes this.
 
Choivo Capital Fantastic book

I still go back to it every other month.
23/02/2019 11:14 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ An excellent book with worldly wisdom for good living and rewarding investing.
23/02/2019 12:43 PM
Sslee Dear all,
I am not a very keen reader on Investment books as I prefer to read books on spirituality and biography.
I can recommend below book to you so that you can live a happy and balance life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_Now
The Power of Now: A Guide to Spiritual Enlightenment
By: Eckhart Tolle
The book draws from a variety of "spiritual traditions",[5] and has been described by one reviewer as "Buddhism mixed with mysticism and a few references to Jesus Christ, a sort of New Age re-working of Zen."[6] It uses these traditions to describe a "belief system based on living in the present moment".[7] Its core message is that people's emotional problems are rooted in their identification with their minds.[8] The author writes that an individual should be aware of their "present moment" instead of losing themselves in worry and anxiety about the past or future.[2]
According to the book, only the present moment is important,[5] and both an individual's past and future is created by their thoughts.[6] The author maintains that people's insistence that they have control of their life is an illusion "that only brings pain".[5] The book also describes methods of relaxation and meditation to aid readers in anchoring themselves in the present.[5] These suggestions include slowing down life by avoiding multi-tasking, spending time in nature, and letting go of worries about the future.[9] Some of the concepts contained in The Power of Now, such as the human ego and its negative effects on happiness, are further elaborated in the author's later books, in particular A New Earth: Awakening to Your Life's Purpose (2005).[7]

To make the journey into The Power of Now we will need to leave our analytical mind and its false created self, the ego, behind. Although the journey is challenging, Eckhart Tolle offers simple language and a question and answer format to show us how to silence our thoughts and create a liberated life.

Surrender to the present moment, where problems do not exist. It is here we find our joy, are able to embrace our true selves and discover that we are already complete and perfect. If we are able to be fully present and take each step in the Now we will be opening ourselves to the transforming experience of The Power of Now.

Thank you
23/02/2019 3:19 PM
PureBULL ... Dear Sslee,
My fellow in engineering,
HERE's to make easy MONEY in stocks EVERY YR in Msia, mostly from plc by those bosses from boh.tak.chet university.

Tis Msia not U.S.A. where talents r proven definitely only from IVY league biz school UNI.


KEY:
there r few STOCKS will fly like crazzzy every yr in KLSE.

WE in i3, must make MONEY in those
TOGETHER n MORE ...
23/02/2019 3:31 PM
VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In Casino Bursa Malaysia, no place for books. Just make your bet, pick popular counter, buy it, pray it goes up. Repeat
23/02/2019 8:12 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Sslee if you are not a keen reader or intent in widening your investing knowledge, why do you even bother buying stocks? It will lose you money in the long run if you have no idea what you are doing.

I would advise you to just put your money in the fixed deposit and pick a quiet temple somewhere you no longer need money.
23/02/2019 9:01 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) I thought i3 was an investing forum? It is funny how word information gets passed around.
23/02/2019 9:02 PM
hollandking I like KLCI Going Heaven forthrightness
23/02/2019 9:14 PM
hollandking In some religion, there's something called creating your own world, something like that, u redefine certain things, that way it takes away lots of problems by defining what is what,what should be, what shouldn't be. But this is what is called bcoz u can't find an answer, so you create or redefine certain things. Is it the truth, I can't be sure, but based on what I've seen they redefine or define certain things thus eliminating the obstacles by cutting it off.
23/02/2019 9:21 PM
hollandking after the first person created the definition, others follow, things became easier for them but they may lose the understanding of the first person and something different might be experience is the first, thet truth or the later is the truth, is hard to say, right can become wrong, wrong can become right.
23/02/2019 9:23 PM
hollandking so if like that, what should u do, u have to experience and learn for yourself and not believe 100% what others tell you what should be. If you don't experience for yourself, u can't say is the truth bcoz others say so.
23/02/2019 9:24 PM
hollandking the most dangerous part is when u believe in something 100%, u already created a fence, this fence will isolate you from outside.
23/02/2019 9:25 PM
hollandking believe in something 100% without experiencing is what is called defining something regardless of whether if it is the truth or not. Take it as is.
23/02/2019 9:27 PM
hollandking U can see this happened to many, and they are trapped. A person if he find spiritual development, he will changed, he will not do bad things, if otherwise, those are fakes, he is deceiving himself or being deceived
23/02/2019 9:29 PM
hollandking Now we talk about faith, faith isn't something u can say I'm strong in faith, Im' 100% strong, faith comes from within, faith is slowly build up through experience in life, is like 1 step at a time, multipe events in your life, each piling up building that faith. U think u have faith, but you don't if you don't have this building process. Is all fake faith without this experiencing and learning processes, one step at all time all add up together building up that faith. Anyone who say got faith, ask yourself, did this building up process happened to you? Please, I'm not saying U pray to god, kena 4d, so yeah I experienced God. I'm talking about the things that happened in your life, what took place and things that happened later on, that were arranged to changed you.
23/02/2019 9:34 PM
Sslee Dear Philip,
No a very keen reader of investment books and not reading investment books is totally two different things. Similarly spirituality and religion are totally two different things. https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/188217.jsp
So thank you for your book recommendation. Learning how to invest is very useful to train your brain to think beyond hard figures but also deeper into business competitive advantage. I am learning investing in preparation for my life after retirement in doing something useful and interesting that can bring benefit to self and all.

Thank you
P/S: I3investor is not solely about investment but it also about social interaction, exchange of idea and for better future thus all are welcome to discuss anything under the sun.
23/02/2019 10:08 PM
PureBULL ... (S = Qr) Philip is a great talent in i3.
So good to have him on board.
Philip's stock selection for investing is simply superb.
I think he knows how biz works n how it can work BETTER.

BUT keep holding stocks long term without paying attention to price cycle n right timing for exit n entry can be BORING.

Every Q after QR, few select stocks will fly.
We must make those money n usually the price increase is v v explosive !
24/02/2019 5:26 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Hi purebull,

That is the essence of true investing.

Investing is supposed to be boring, slow and watching paint dry.

The bigger the sums you invest, the less action you need to do, the more reading you need to have.

Action needs to be decisive, because majority of stocks will not give you good returns long term.

One of the mental models I use for stocks is the 80/20 rule. In business, 20% of the population control the other 80%. Therefore in this case, I operate on the assumption that 80% of the stocks in bursa are crap, and only 20% above average.

It makes it easy for me to just skip through a lot of financial report and start applying other mental models on the 20% to define my opportunity costs.

*****

I guess if we wanted more excitement I'd go to the casino instead.
24/02/2019 7:23 AM
stockraider Using this theory....Growth investment in quality stock hard to come by mah....!!

Example u have about 200 stock for selection....!!

Then 80/20 criteria for affordable price loh...use are left with 40 stock universe loh...!!

Then of these stock...u need to stay on your competence...or your research do not cover so wide that means u left with 8 stocks loh..!!

The limitation of margin of safety stock investment are less constraints and more opportunity loh...!!
24/02/2019 11:06 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Just because you end up buying 5 stocks doesn't mean you don't research and read in the other 2000. Oversimplification is silly.

If you run on the assumption that you can only buy 20 stocks in your lifetime, you better make sure that your investment is rock solid.

But if you are right, and it is easier to be right if you stop buying everything and choose only the wonderful companies, you will be rewarded for more than you can believe.

Put it this way, when you were in school you had like 30-40 students in class. If you could bet on which students would do well in the next exam, would you bet on the top 5 students with the best results during the last exam? Those who were the hardest working and dedicated ones?

Or would you pick all the students to do well and diversify your risks?

Or would pick the top half of the students who did reasonably well with a margin of safety?

That is what Charlie is advocating and changed the mind of Warren buffet from pure margin of safety or buying fair companies at wonderful prices to buying wonderful companies at fair prices.

Yes wonderful companies are hard to come buy, no one day it is not.

But consider this, when you do find one, you can invest big capital into that one great idea ( all your money into that one top student who did well during the last exam), knowing the chances he will do well is much higher than sharing your betting money on the middle half ( fairly smart students who can do ok).

When you have 80-99% of a sure thing, you can afford to sailang and make big money at low risk. I'm not taking free hundred ringgit, I'm talking hundreds of thousands into millions of dollars.

When you are not so sure of your investment, you will never dare to put big sums of money into a stock idea.

Just think about it: if you were sure INSAS was a wonderful company, and it will definitely go to rm3(because you think fair value is rm3), why are you buying sapura and jcy and other companies with lower opportunities? Just put all of it into INSAS and get 500% gain( from 0.60 to rm3) over 2 years.

But because you are not sure what to value, and you don't know your stock well enough, you choose to "diversify". Into sapura, etc etc etc.

Charlie munger-" diversification is a protection against ignorance.

I fully agree.
24/02/2019 11:28 AM
qqq3 Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 24, 2019 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

Charlie munger-" diversification is a protection against ignorance.
===========

the academic approach is random walk theory, anyway.

and members of investing public lives in ignorance anyway......mostly.

they talk for the majority...when I talk about sailang and margin....everybody starts deleting my posts........

I guess who is more important than what ( is written)
24/02/2019 11:47 AM
qqq3 branding and growth limits....

in America, u can have See and unlimited growth....

in Malaysia, how?
24/02/2019 12:01 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Topglove is 25% of world glove market.
24/02/2019 12:06 PM
qqq3 fund managers priority is not to lose to peers....they don't need to win...
24/02/2019 12:24 PM
Shinnzaii Posted by qqq3 > Feb 24, 2019 12:22 PM | Report Abuse

In Malaysia....you have

-the Philips
-the rubbish collectors and their margin of safety
-the cigar butters ( research houses )
- the National service guys ( PNB and Khazanah)
-the Index funds ( most fund managers)
- the KYYs

- those who never make it
-those who are destined to fail.....

who u want to be? which group u rather be?

That is not important...important is what you learn from them...everyone invest differently...got people like increased profit each quarter, got people like NTA, got people like business sense...
24/02/2019 12:33 PM
qqq3 In Malaysia....you have

-the Philips
-the rubbish collectors and their margin of safety
-the cigar butters ( research houses )
- the National service guys ( PNB and Khazanah)
-the Index funds ( most fund managers)
- the KYYs

- those who never make it
-those who are destined to fail.....

who u want to be? which group u rather be?
24/02/2019 12:36 PM
Apabagus qqq3,you miss out of one more catepory....the PLP's....wakaka
24/02/2019 12:40 PM
qqq3 what's wrong with the PLPs?

never wrong to be smart
24/02/2019 12:48 PM
Apabagus qqq3,i now have to crown you the title "PLP King of i3".You seem to enjoy plp n you seem to be proud of it.
24/02/2019 12:52 PM
qqq3 bagus.....not that I am proud of title....but what other people say don't bother me.....I am a Zen trader.....
24/02/2019 12:53 PM
qqq3 ok....I add one more category...the zen traders.
24/02/2019 12:54 PM
qqq3 In Malaysia....you have

-the Philips
-the rubbish collectors and their margin of safety
-the cigar butters ( research houses )
- the National service guys ( PNB and Khazanah)
-the Index funds ( most fund managers)
- the KYYs
-the Zen traders

- those who never make it
-those who are destined to fail.....

who u want to be? which group u rather be?
24/02/2019 12:54 PM
qqq3 and then, there are the DYFs and people attracted to DYFs........


https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-mysterious-8-500--stock-gain-attracts-big-funds--big-questions-43441.html
24/02/2019 1:20 PM
qqq3 I am sure there are people creative enough to know why DYF is a good buy at this price.........
24/02/2019 1:22 PM
qqq3 He retired in 2000 to devote himself to the study of integrating Eastern traditional wisdom and modern investment, and the techniques of capital operation and game theory. Leveraging his new insight, he developed the ‘Zen & I-Ching Investment Theory,’ becoming another innovative way of investment following in the footsteps of Warren Buffet’s (sic) value investing and George Soros’s hedge fund investing.
24/02/2019 1:25 PM
Sslee Repost from other forum:
Dear Philip,
From Warren own word: My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked. But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well.
Many of the retail investors in i3 are small sum investor thus nothing wrong if they follow Ben Graham’s investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices.

For my-self I only put 1/3 of my cash worth in stocks investment and I divided my stocks selection into deep value stocks, dividend stocks, trading stocks (theme play) and lately following your advice growth + dividend stock.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/business/dealbook/buffett-annual-letter-berkshire.html
The conglomerate controlled by Warren E. Buffett suffered losses of $25.4 billion in the fourth quarter, according to Berkshire’s annual report that was released on Saturday.
Problems at Kraft Heinz, which on Thursday reported weak fourth-quarter earnings and a $15.4 billion write-down, also weighed on Berkshire, which owns a nearly 27 percent stake in the food company.

A word of caution keeping cash is also a form of prudent and conservative investment. Remember during the past market crash many people wish he/she had hold cash and spoil for choice to buy wonderful companies at the fraction of its price.

Thank you.
P/S: Growth is only good if it is above the cost of capital. By chasing growth with borrowing money is a risk. By assuming the success story can be duplicated and scaled up in foreign countries is a dangerous thought especially bread and butter business as many countries will give priority to their own local companies for self interest and food security.
24/02/2019 2:16 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) There is no such thing as big sums and small sums in investing. The risk is the same with either amount.

Buying a rm0.20 cent share is the same as buying a rm20 one.

If it drops by half you lose both ways.

I would argue due to the concept of compounding long term of gains, it is far more important to invest properly with small sums where you cannot afford mistakes or loss of capital, than it is to invest large sums where you would already have more than enough to live a comfortable life.

But to each his own.

Losing 200k when you can ill afford it is more difficult than losing 2 million when you have millions to spare.

I speak from bitter experience.
24/02/2019 2:25 PM
Apabagus Aiyoh every time i see you phil you are so serious.Loose up,investing can be fun too.Come crack some jokes.
24/02/2019 3:37 PM
Apabagus By the way phil buying a 20 sen share is different than buying a 20 ringgit share in tthat every 2 sen gain is a gain of 10 %,which is far easier to achieve than a 2 ringgit gain for the 20 ringgit share.Of course you will never know this given your fascination with high priced stocks.
24/02/2019 3:45 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) That is where you are oh so wrong.

I have bought cheap penny shares for many years during the 90's.

And if you think that 2 dollar gain from 20 dollars is harder to get than 2 cents from 20 cents, then you really have much to learn about buying stocks.
24/02/2019 10:24 PM
Apabagus Not really phil,cos you dunno who i am,actually i did it quite often,not 10%,but 20% or more within days.Yes it is days,not years.
25/02/2019 12:58 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Sure thing. I have done gains of 50-100% back then in 90's as well. But let's not talk percentages, how much is the sums? Small sums? A few thousand? Tens of thousands? How long could you keep it up? 1 month? 1 year? Sooner or later those kind of investing method sure will come back to bite the ass... I know this from bitter experience.

In the end, you know how I made big money? 10 year holdings and every quarter top up like clockwork. In QL and topglove. Never sold a single share for 10 years. Then with PBB, then with YINSON, now with PCHEM. And the biggest earner do far, STNE ( NYSE). You know how many times I cut loss? Zero.

Trust me. Anyone who tells you they can average 10-20% in days, consistently for years, reinvesting larger and larger sums, compounding all retained gains for more than 10 years all by trading short term? I call bullshit.

I try to stay away from "those" kind of people.

It just can't be done. If you could compound 20% gains in days( or even months) in larger and larger amounts day after day, year after year. Warren Buffett will hire you as the new successor to Berkshire. No questions asked.

5-50k sure, can believe. You try investing 1-10 million. Can get 20% gains in days? Do the math. In 10 years, if you could compound your gains and get your 20% in days consistently for 6 months in a year, and do it without cut loss for 10 years, you would have turned 50,000 into around 100m... Yes doubling your equity position every year. Wow.

If so, I humbly ask you to show me your portfolio and 5 year annual statements, I will hand over my entire topglove portfolio to you to invest (2 million shares reinvested since 2009 till 2019 starting from rm500k) QL stock, STNE (500k units), PCHEM. l will give it all to you, you can name any profit margin you want. Escrow account. Losses I bear. Profits you earn. I take 10% per year.

Deal? Bernie Madoff also kalah to Malaysian maestro.
26/02/2019 12:59 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Btw I am interested in knowing what plp means. What does PLP stand for?
26/02/2019 1:01 AM
sich PLP stands for Po Lan Pa.
It means carry balls...to flatter someone. It's hokkien dialect.

-------
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 26, 2019 01:01 AM | Report Abuse
Btw I am interested in knowing what plp means. What does PLP stand for?
08/03/2019 8:51 PM

Shipbuilding, Lending, and how ROE may be the most important RULE in Investing

Author: Philip ( buy what you understand)   |  Publish date: Mon, 21 Jan 2019, 11:39 PM


Hi all, I have just landed at a port of call, on an amazing cruise with my dear wife, and it has been a brilliant holiday so far...

Hi, my name is Phillip, and I realized that there is a tool that many investors forget to apply when valuing stocks. I believe it is very very important, and I will try to explain it in a simple way that I hope will be very useful for everyone on I3. Many thanks to Princess cruises for giving me this ephiphany, and I hope to entertain and educate in a simple but useful way.

No one remembers numbers, but a good story never fails to impress.

Imagine if you will a new ship being built. The captain of the boat wants to make a grand ship to travel the world, but he lacks the resources. Therefore, he goes around and promises his sailors and potential passangers a price to build the ship. (IPO) Once that ship is built, the story begins...

Understand the facts of the matter, as the ship travels from port to port in its journey, passangers and sailors will want to pay different prices (market cap/ share price) to take a ride on this ship. However, the ship remains the same (shareholders equity). This does not change, usually. Ships usually stay the same size in the beginning.

However, as the ship travels from port to port, there will be damages and repairs to be made. Sometimes when business is good(share price up), the captain may decide to do upgrade by borrowing money from the port (banks) or the passangers ( dilution, warrants, loans, bonds, share options) All those are bad, but sometimes a cost in the journey of our ship through life. As long as our ship can reach the next port safely, everything is OK! But please note, as I just told my wife a few days ago, the cabin room size doesnt change whether it is measured in feet or meters, so please dont make that mistake in thinking a room in sqft is bigger than a room in sqm (share split)

Now as you know, it takes more effort to move a big ship than it is to move a small one. So, what is the fuel needed to move the ship from port to port? Exactly, this is known as (RETURN OF EQUITY/ROE). Think of it this way would be perfect.

A ship moving fast would have a high return of equity. A ship moving slow would then have a low ROE. Obviously in investment you have to wonder who is paying for the fuel! If it is paid directly from the tickets raised and profits made internally by the ship, then it is obviously a good ROE.

However, if the ROE is generated from an outsized borrowing from the bank or loans or dilution, then even if it is high, this will be obviously a bad ROE.

How one should think of ROE

Imagine 2 small businesses selling popcorn and ice cream on the ship. Imagine you as the captain borrowed money to the sellers to start their business...

For every dollar you borrowed, at the end of the year the popcorn shop makes 5 cents. (ROE=5%) in 7 years, you would roughly 1 and a half popcorn shops.

For every dollar you borrowed, at the end of the year the ice cream shop makes 10 cents. (ROE=10%) in 7 years you would have 2 ice creap shops.

Compound interest really helps in things like this!

How one should apply ROE in business evaluation

Basically using the assumption that business performance is a key indicator via ROE, you can start to see and understand why businesses with low ROE are usually afforded a low PE ratio, while business with high ROE are usually afforded a high PE ratio.

I mean, if you were a passenger on a ship, wouldnt you change to another if you realized the ship wasnt moving?

And if the ship was moving really really slowly... would you even want to buy a ticket?

Cheers, and I hope you learned something

Philip

 

 

 

 

  Be the first to like this.
 
qqq3 and the most important determinant of the ticket price is reputation.....and next, a good story to tell.
21/01/2019 11:47 PM
qqq3 sslee is in the process of repairing his dented reputation
21/01/2019 11:52 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) some examples, previous annual report

RCECAP uses 519 million equity to generate 88 million, ROE of 16.95%
PBB uses 37 billion to geneerate 5.4 billion of profit, ROE of 14.59%
HL bank uses 24 billion to generate 2.6 billion of profit, ROE of 10.83%

In this case you may believe that RCECAP is the stock to buy, until you think about economies of scale, performance on large asset base and the quality of the asset (fuel quality), then you realize the reason why PBB is still the best performer overall.

Simply ask yourself this, if RCECAP increased its loan base to 37 billion and lend it to all the poor people in government office, do you think their roe will still be high? Or will they die to NPL.

As it is, ROE is a strong indicator of business performance, but obviously cannot stand alone. Use your business sense wisely.
21/01/2019 11:57 PM
qqq3 remember i3 2016...

every young graduate come here to promote their own stocks....value here, value there....cash in bank, PE , NTA, Balance Sheet dissected....where are they today?


all die already la.....

end 2018/2019 is sslee turn
21/01/2019 11:58 PM
qqq3 Banks, Businesses Brace For Far-Reaching Accounting Standard Changes
ByPYMNTSPosted on October 9, 2018

I would not touch banks just yet.
22/01/2019 12:10 AM
Bruce88 Sure lah newbie like to show off..
22/01/2019 7:53 AM
stockraider U need understand this loh....!!

1. ROE is a powerful inward looking tools for looking at the quality of investment, but it does not help u to determine whether it is good buy even the roe is high mah...!!

2. Good buy is determine by the reasonable PE or and with earnings growth mah....!!

A good example Nestle has a superb ROE of more than 100% but the company cannot n unable to find good investment to support high ROE returns as a result it pays high dividend loh...!! But bcos of its share price of exceed Rm 140.00 investing in it give u an earning yield of PE 50x or less than 2.6% pa, but yes there is some growth about 10% pa...including this growth will give u less than 5% pa loh..!! Unless u r a fixed deposits holder looking to punt a bit then Nestle may consider investable loh....!!

On the other hand insas The ROE is only 4% pa but bcos its high shareholder fund of Rm 2.54, it generate an eps of rm 0.10, giving an earning yield of 14% pa or pe 6.5x loh basing on share price rm 0.72 loh...!!
This insas is a credible long term margin of safety investment loh..!!
22/01/2019 10:31 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) you prefer paper financials or real stock profits?
NESTLE ROE 100%, share price 2009-2019 from RM27 to RM147
QL ROE 11.8%, share price 2009 -2019 from 0.6 to 6.9 (post splits)
INSAS ROE 5.6%, share price 2009 - 2019 from 0.29 to 0.72

I dont care about your paper accounting, or you selling at the top and buying at the low, because we both know it is not possible to time the market.

You can keep your margin of safety and your calculations and your paper value. I want to know real cash values, real business performance, capability of a good management.

Buy and hold is not buy and forget. just because I dont panic sell like you and panic buy when finger itchy doesnt mean I dont know your paper logic.

Its like you telling me hengyuan is a good buy when you bought it at 10, sell at 15, then panic buy at 18, then hold with your paper losses until today. I just choose not to buy speculative companies.

Funny investing.
22/01/2019 5:07 PM
stockraider What is the diff ?? Profit is profit mah ??

Just like u ask diff of profit earn from manufacturing as an engineer v profit earn for doctor service ?....they are both profit mah...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 22, 2019 05:07 PM | Report Abuse

you prefer paper financials or real stock profits?
NESTLE ROE 100%, share price 2009-2019 from RM27 to RM147
QL ROE 11.8%, share price 2009 -2019 from 0.6 to 6.9 (post splits)
INSAS ROE 5.6%, share price 2009 - 2019 from 0.29 to 0.72

I dont care about your paper accounting, or you selling at the top and buying at the low, because we both know it is not possible to time the market.

You can keep your margin of safety and your calculations and your paper value. I want to know real cash values, real business performance, capability of a good management.

Buy and hold is not buy and forget. just because I dont panic sell like you and panic buy when finger itchy doesnt mean I dont know your paper logic.

BTW
Its like you telling me hengyuan is a good buy when you bought it at 10, sell at 15, then panic buy at 18, then hold with your paper losses until today. I just choose not to buy speculative companies.

BTW WHAT HAPPEN TO HENGYUAN COULD HAPPEN TO UR QL TOO, IT ALREADY HAPPEN TO YOUR TOPGLOVE ALREADY WITH SUDDEN FALL IN SHARE PRICE MAH...!!

INSAS IS NOT A SPECULATIVE STOCK, IT HAS HUGE NETT CASH HOLDING & HUGE DISCOUNT TOO ITS CURRENT SHARE PRICE MAH...!!

U CAN SLEEP WELL INVESTING ON INSAS, BCOS OF ITS UNDERVALUATION & GIVE DECENT DIVIDEND YIELD MAH...!!
22/01/2019 5:16 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) whats the difference? if you sell the stock what do you get? dividend and share sales gains.

if you sell insas shares? you get nothing from your so called "profit".
22/01/2019 7:09 PM
stockraider U understand what insas give better than Ql share leh ??

1, Dividend ...the lifeblood of investment...insas give 3% pa yield but Ql only give tiny less than 1% yield mah...!!
This is what the tangible thing that insas is much more superior than ur Ql loh.....!!

2. btw after u sell insas or ql share...the scenario u get, either profit or loss...does this show owning insas n ql, u get the same consequence leh ??
Pls don make a big deal owning QL compare to owning insas loh...!!


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 22, 2019 07:09 PM | Report Abuse

whats the difference? if you sell the stock what do you get? dividend and share sales gains.

if you sell insas shares? you get nothing from your so called "profit".
22/01/2019 7:51 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) you can definitely keep you 3% dividend, while your stock price keep dropping. Its definitely a good deal I guess. I prefer long term stock price performance.

To each his own.
22/01/2019 9:51 PM
stockraider U r over zealous loh....!!
Can u point to me how u derive insas share price is dropping leh ??
In fact based on latest reading insas is still ahead of QL mah...!!

U can prefer anything long term performance loh...!!
But the fact is right now ur QL lagging mah...!!

Talk no use mah....!!
If Ql is not performing pls don talk is if u r a champion loh...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 22, 2019 09:51 PM | Report Abuse

you can definitely keep you 3% dividend, while your stock price keep dropping. Its definitely a good deal I guess. I prefer long term stock price performance.

To each his own.
22/01/2019 10:02 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>10154899906070843 you prefer paper financials or real stock profits?
NESTLE ROE 100%, share price 2009-2019 from RM27 to RM147
QL ROE 11.8%, share price 2009 -2019 from 0.6 to 6.9 (post splits)
INSAS ROE 5.6%, share price 2009 - 2019 from 0.29 to 0.72

I dont care about your paper accounting, or you selling at the top and buying at the low, because we both know it is not possible to time the market.

You can keep your margin of safety and your calculations and your paper value. I want to know real cash values, real business performance, capability of a good management.

Buy and hold is not buy and forget. just because I dont panic sell like you and panic buy when finger itchy doesnt mean I dont know your paper logic.

Its like you telling me hengyuan is a good buy when you bought it at 10, sell at 15, then panic buy at 18, then hold with your paper losses until today. I just choose not to buy speculative companies.

Funny investing.
22/01/2019 17:07>>>


Mr 1015 I believe you when you shared you have been holding QL for many years.

Of course, I have Nestle for many years too.

I cannot even tell if raider has Insas or if he has, he has held this since 2009. Given his activity in the market of jumping in and jumping out of stocks (Hengyuan is a case in point), how are you going to have even a meaningful discussion with him?

Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don't expect this from cheap people.
22/01/2019 10:40 PM
stockraider Based on Hengyuan situation what are the lessons we can learn from there leh ??

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Lessons

Pls do not trust growth in EPS and low PE so much loh...!! Earnings can unexpected collapse very fast anytime loh...!!

The margin of safety based on Earnings and growth is very volatile like the case of Hengyuan PE 5x v Nestle 50x and Ql 50x, in addition Hengyuan growth 200% v Nestle & Ql growth less than 20%....u thought Hengyuan got very big fat margin of safety based on earnings and growth...but this type of margin of safety based on earnings can collapse and disappear very fast loh...!!

In fact this condition of collapse again confirmed by the recent collapse of padini and topglove, share price fall drastically recently bcos of earnings disappointment again mah...!!

So do not listen to conman 3iii asking u all to buy NESTLE Pe 50x or high growth stock at lofty valuation....anytime the earnings can collapse very fast without warnings like what happen to hengyuan, topglove and padini loh...!!

Thats the reason why Ben Graham in the intelligent investor book, do not give too much emphasis on investment based on margin of safety using earnings based on profitability and growth route, but he prefer to use margin of safety based on huge discount on tangible assets and huge cash liquidity of the company with the huge share price discount bcos this tenet is less volatile & tangible and esy to employ loh...!!

It is not that u cannot invest based on growth and earnings route, in fact raider would encourage u do it bcos it is highly profitable loh...anyhow if u invested in hengyuan earlier, u will had made a huge profit unseen for many years, but u must act smart & be prepare to lari kuat kuat loh...!!

People like 3iii & Mr Long are unsuitable to advise u on this loh, bcos this people like driving cars, can only drive the car forward, but they don know when to tell u to brake and do reverse gear ala "LARI KUAT KUAT WHEN THINGS DON TURN UP RIGHT" MAH...!!

Raider is right to advice u to lari kuat kuat on hengyuan...in fact everyone should learn how to lari kuat kuat ....when condition & environment does not look right mah...!!
22/01/2019 10:50 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) Ok, can I lari kuat kuat from you? You are pretty toxic keep polluting every thread with your repetitive INSAS ideas. Best is if you move to INSAS thread and post everyday. I surrender, can't beat your long term investment strategy of 2 weeks say insas performance better than QL. Can you stop drowning everyone else with your spam and capslock. I get it, you are master of margin of safety. You have made millions doing your strategy.

Can we move on? I'm tired of listening to old broken record.
23/01/2019 1:12 AM
stockraider Thats fine with me to have truce loh...!!

Just a correction...the fire started 1st by u by belittling value investment & insas the value investment proxy mah...!!

I don mind u continue emphasis ur growth investment, thats is your core competence mah, but instead u rundown on other people value investment system mah...which raider think is false bcos u have lacked of understanding on this area loh..!!

Raider don want u to mislead practioner of value investment as a rubbish system bcos the mechanism of this investment has been proven to be successful by highly famous investors for many years loh....!!

Remember there are many ways to skin a cat in order to make monies and your way and my way are not the only way loh..!! Lets be broad minded mah....!!

If u decide that ur way is the best just stick to it n emphasis the positive aspect of it and share with us loh...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 23, 2019 01:12 AM | Report Abuse

Ok, can I lari kuat kuat from you? You are pretty toxic keep polluting every thread with your repetitive INSAS ideas. Best is if you move to INSAS thread and post everyday. I surrender, can't beat your long term investment strategy of 2 weeks say insas performance better than QL. Can you stop drowning everyone else with your spam and capslock. I get it, you are master of margin of safety. You have made millions doing your strategy.

Can we move on? I'm tired of listening to old broken record.
23/01/2019 10:58 AM
wiki123 wow, this F&N also potential to ROE now 17.35 to rise to 100 in the future... keep giving dividend when price is 100 + like Nestle.. potential...
26/02/2019 3:56 PM


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