Highlights

Investing theory 2 - IPO valuation

Author: (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip   |   Latest post: Tue, 19 Mar 2019, 9:08 PM

 

A BRIEF HISTORY OF TIMECOM

Author:   |    Publish date:


 

 

looks like such a wonderful company doesnt it?

 

 

Low coverage? Unable to increase coverage to more users? ITS OK.

 

 

 

WAIT. THERE IS MORE.

 


 

HOW DID TIMECOM AFFORD THIS?

 


 

 

SO ALL IS GOOD NOW RIGHT?

 

 

TIME ONCE HAD A PAYPHONE SYNDICATE. THEN IT WENT OBSOLETE AND LOSS WHEN MOBILE PHONES BECAME PREVALENT.

WHY DOESN'T TM REDUCE ITS UNIIFI PRICING DRASTICALLY? WHY DOES IT NEED TO? IT KNOWS TIME CAN'T SELL ITS SERVICE EVERYWHERE. SO IT GOES AND DEPLOYS CONTRACTS FOR FTTH INTO CONDOMINIUM UNITS.

TM COUNTERSTRATEGY? MAKE A LOSS IN SUPPLYINGG ELV CONTRACTS, FIBER CABLING INTO CONDOMINIUM PROJECTS (AT HALF OF NORMAL CONTRACTOR PRICES), SECURE LONG TERM UNIFI CONTRACTS.

WILL TIMECOM DO WELL IN THE FUTURE? CAN IT JUSTIFY COSTS OF INFRASTRUCTURE TO DO FTTH? WILL FIBER TO THE HOME BE WORTH THE COSTS LONG TERM WHEN 5G AND 6G ROLL OUT WILL BE CHEAPER THAN LAYING FIBER LONG TERM? WILL TIMECOM GET A 5G LICENSE WHEN THEY THREW AWAY THEIR 3G LICENSE ?

YOU DECIDE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BONUS MATERIAL

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Labels: TIMECOM

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
TIMECOM 9.05 0.00 (0.00%) 5,000 

  2 people like this.
 
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip LESS LOHSOH. MORE INFO. THIS IS WHY WARREN BUFFET HATES INVESTING IN TECH COMPANIES. SPEND BILLIONS PULLING 3600 KM OF CABLES, REGISTER HUGE LOSSES. AFTER EARN THINGS BACK AGAIN, 5G COMES IN AND RUINS YOUR DAY AGAIN.

5G not viable technology? wait till they start investing in millions of small cell switches technology for 5G networks.
11/03/2019 12:38 AM
Choivo Capital Hmm ok.

I started reading with an eagerness that Phillip will finally teach me something and prove me wrong.

I prayed to god that, this will be my black swan.

Timecom has the highest PE in my portfolio, and is one where im actually paying for growth, at around fair value.

I wish that finally someone will prove me wrong once and for all on this company, and i can just sell it and buy something else.

And then you come up with this....

Disappointing man.
11/03/2019 12:44 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip 5G not enough? wait till you see what 6G does. wireless power like how nicola tesla promised us? The future is far more advanced than you can believe. If you told someone 80 years ago that you would be able to send a wireless mail in 2 seconds from malaysia to england, invent wireless charging, be able to talk on wireless phones, translate languages instantaneously?

He would have laughed his head off.
11/03/2019 12:47 AM
Choivo Capital I look forward for humanity to move forward, with 5g, 6g ,7g.

And obviously, as these technologies move forward. Fibre will always stay the same with no technological development.

That the fact that fibre has literally infinite speed, but is limited by the technological ability by receiving stations to process it fast enough with no corruption.

There will definitely be no progress in technology when it comes to this.

Now, if rockets actually become cheap as hell, as we can put up a ton of satellites in space for global internet at fast speeds, that would be interesting.
11/03/2019 12:52 AM
Choivo Capital Phillip ah, this one is so weak until....

Even the Unutilised tax losses you take wrong figure, the amount is RM15m, and it was not expensed off as its incurred recently in the subsidiary.

Now i just feel bad to be honest.

You know what. 走好,不送.

I think i better stop interacting with you, before you turn into someone like khatulistiwa on the forum.

good luck with your QL. PCHEM and Yinson dont need that much luck lah to be fair.
11/03/2019 12:59 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip another brainless whiner. Just like TIME.

Whining about why they cant serve their landed customers.

whine whine whine.

it doesn't matter how infinitely fast your internet it becomes if you can't solve the last mile issue, which is where TIME biggest growth is coming from.

Room to grow? at 100K per KM? good luck.

your selling costs will always be capped by your deployment costs.

And now that TIME can no longer claim tax incentive from their losses before? I practically GUARANTEE LOWER EARNINGS in the future.
11/03/2019 1:01 AM
Choivo Capital Are you by any chance bipolar?
11/03/2019 1:02 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip bye kid. I will stop interacting with children like you as well.
11/03/2019 1:04 AM
Choivo Capital Thanks anyway for this post.

If this kind of hit-piece is the worst that someone as sharp as you (as long as we don't talk about QL) can come up with.

It must be a pretty good investment.

I guess all that poking on QL with you paid off. Now i'm a lot more certain on this company!

Thanks! I hope you live a long and peaceful life.
11/03/2019 1:10 AM
Sslee Dear Philip,
Thank you. Learn something new today. Balance sheet of TIMECOM looks very solid: Total liabilities RM 812,026,000, Current assets: RM 850,378,000 and non-current assets: RM 2,227,672,000 and some-more the assets is a super high-way of fiber optic networks.

But who know with Malaysian Flying car North- South highway will become obsolete. So better buy QL, we need to eat everyday right?

https://blog.3-gis.com/blog/5g-will-only-be-as-powerful-as-the-fiber-networks-supporting-it?gclid=CjwKCAiAiJPkBRAuEiwAEDXZZdLKVefcE_MTgYlgAty33tBNMv-D15bIMbiPLlP5aOryCtVIUVJ7lxoC5sUQAvD_BwE
https://www.ciena.com/insights/articles/5G-wireless-needs-fiber-and-lots-of-it_prx.html

Thank you
11/03/2019 7:08 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip If investing was about looking at details of the past, sslee and choivo would be richest men in Malaysia today.

Alas, investing is about the future.

Time main income growth driver is not from renting out those super highway of fiber optic networks ( which in their annual reports is listed as challenging and competitive) which they also co-own with TM and many others companies ( rangkaian 1 Malaysia) etc.

Their main income driver comes from solving the last mile issue. Putting fiber to the home. In their letter they have acknowledged difficulty in supplying their service to the masses because

A. TM not willing to give up their use rights of those existing poles to landed properties and existing mdf manholes and pipelines to their condos everywhere. If you want, build your own la.

B. It is either too expensive to cut roads and lay their own fiber last mile framework, or they will lose huge money for each subscriber they add by doing so. Time wants free lunch, but TM says try harder.

Currently you can already have broadband to the house wirelessly (4g) by getting a sim card and a wireless router. Our only complaints is price and quality. 5G will fix that, with new low power transmitters and high access speeds of 3gbps and huge number of connections.

Why is maxis, Digi etc broadband package so expensive? Electricity costs ( current cell towers suck up electricity like a cow eats grass), FTTH are cheaper because it is cheap to relay light through fiberglass instead of sound.

That will soon change as evidenced by 5g trials recently in putrajaya.

On top of that since 2009, time has not been paying 24% taxes because they have been using their past losses building those super highway fibre optic networks.

Starting 2019, LGE has said Time can no longer claim those losses, and must pay 24% tax on everything they earn.

Do you think time business starting next year can grow so much more that their EBITDA in 2019 will be able to absorb 50 million of taxes and still be more profitable earnings growth than 2018?

I think not. Time did 288 million this year. In 2019, after making more record breaking profit, time will be paying 24% tax, 50 million more give or take, putting their expected returns at 230 million net earnings. For a company whose only ability is to cut down on prices to win market share ( which TM owns market share 10:1, why would they drop prices if they don't have to? And it's not like they can't, both have those "fiber assets", tm just chooses not to) it's not exactly a big threat.

Good luck to time investors next quarter1 of 2019.

Thank you.
11/03/2019 8:14 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip I would rather buy TM. It is far more oversold. And they also have far more of those "super highway fiber networks".

More importantly, they have cut their dividends, rationalized their business, are more sensitive to upstarts like time, and are improving their costs and services to meet the future.

All TM needs to do is to cost cut here and there, trim a few bits here and there and voila.

Their monopoly is still intact. Yes even maxis and Digi have to use tm fiber trunk line ( they prefer to rent time in certain areas because it's cheaper than TM) for their 4g and 5g upcoming transmission.

But a full price war ( which gobin would love) between Time and TM won't even be funny. Yes it's probably against anticompetition law, but if tomorrow TM decided to upgrade their equipment in those 3 areas which time has coverage, reset up and start selling 1gbps to those homes only at rm50 2 year special? That year also time can pack up and divest their FTTH business.

It's not that TM can't compete. They just choose not to interact with noisy children. Unless mcmc forces them to.
11/03/2019 8:30 AM
Sslee Dear Philip,
Thank but no thanks. Why everyone wants to be a richest man in Malaysia. After all if you do not spend your money, it doesn’t belong to you and you can’t take your money into your grave. So what matter?
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/191558.jsp

Thank you
11/03/2019 9:14 AM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Why sslee always only read and see what he wants to see.


I was giving you what is known as a what if scenario. Like you always love to do with your reposting of past figures with no solid future results analysis.

No need to pollute my blog like stockraider with irrelevant information.

What does managing stress have to do with the future of TIMECOM?

Thank you.
11/03/2019 9:19 AM
Sslee Dear Philip,
Am I getting on your nerve? If so I’m sorry and I’m not going to pollute your blog article anymore.
Bye-bye from now the “Oracle of KK” and most likely will be the richest man in KK pretty soon. Wish you all the best and by the way thank you for your share recommendation Pchem.

Thank you
P/S: What a sigh of relief, I finally manage to get a 500lb gorilla off my back and please change your profile picture, it look awful.
11/03/2019 1:03 PM
untong If more fiber optics are needed for deployment of 5G etc; does that mean OPCOM is a better buy? Manufacturer of fiber optic
11/03/2019 3:29 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip nope, OPCOM is one of the manufacturer of fiber optic of which there are many. electplus, belden, schneider electric, coretech, taiwan, china, japan, etc etc etc. There are so many suppliers its not sustainable. Even opcom is a joint venture with erricsson AB. All I can say is their products are not the cheapest in the market, and the competition is fierce. With one look at their net margins below 3%, you can tell its not a good business to buy.
12/03/2019 6:29 PM
qqq3 (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 12, 2019 06:29 PM | Report Abuse

nope, OPCOM is one of the manufacturer of fiber optic of which there are many. electplus, belden, schneider electric, coretech, taiwan, china, japan, etc etc etc. There are so many suppliers its not sustainable. Even opcom is a joint venture with erricsson AB. All I can say is their products are not the cheapest in the market, and the competition is fierce. With one look at their net margins below 3%, you can tell its not a good business to buy.

==========

u really on top...and while working still? Part of your job?
12/03/2019 6:43 PM
Choivo Capital I think phillips's bipolar extends to his reading comprehension.

That 900m thing, use finish long time ago d. Now only 14m unused losses, which is allowable.

I think i can tell you 50 times also your bipolar will stop you from reading it.



And yes, the only real risk for me is 5G. Meeting a huawei engineer soon to goreng him properly and understand this technology to the bone. I will tell you the 5g related capex currently done by our telcos, seem to indicate 5G will only roll out by 2022.
12/03/2019 6:49 PM
Choivo Capital https://potsandpansbyccg.com/2017/09/29/is-5g-really-a-fiber-replacement/

nah this one give to you for free.
12/03/2019 6:54 PM
(2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip Nice a 5g versus fiber report done in 2017 September. Try harder.


Now for more information. Go to your latest time quarterly report, go to note 16 under tax earnings. Go to recognition of previously unrecognized temporary differences. Tell me exactly what that means. That quarter, (18,286,000). That cumulative year (72,540,000). Go ahead, I'm waiting.

While you are doing that, try explaining to me how a company that makes (304,811,000) in profit before tax only pays (16,141,000) in taxes. That is like paying 5% tax, no?

Isn't the tax rate 24%? They should be paying 73 million in tax, after minusing the 14 million allowable, tax should still be around 59 million to pay.

Explain me that.
12/03/2019 10:07 PM


 

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