Highlights

the bursa journey that worked for me. 2000-2019

Author: Jason Toshi Ho   |   Latest post: Sun, 30 Jun 2019, 4:08 PM

 

How Warren Buffett decides to invest/reject a business in under 15 minutes - WikiHow

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OK, NOW THAT I HAVE YOUR ATTENTION.

Hi everybody, my name is Philip. As you all know (or may not know), I am not Warren Buffett. But, I did attend his AGM once. I was very pleasantly surprised in 2015 when he announced that he had bought the final 20% of ISCAR to completely own it. I was even more surprised when all he received in the beginning was a short letter and a financial report. Within a day, he had called back with an offer: 2 billion us dollars for a company that he had never seen, based in Israel. All from a phonecall.

How is that even possible?

Instead of thinking that WB is some all seeing value investing master, I started thinking and reasearching on how this may be possible. I looked at what Buffett does on a daily basis and what he does during his FAQ of the annual meeting, and came up with a few interesting bits:

1. WARREN BUFFETT GIVES VERY LITTLE OR USES MANY FORMULAS DURING HIS INTERVIEWS, AGM OR ANNUAL LETTERS.

2. WARREN BUFFETT READS A LOT. LIKE 16 HOURS A DAY ALOT. HE READS FINANCIAL REPORTS, MOODYS, TRADE JOURNALS, MARKET REPORTS, STOCK REPORTS. ETC

3. WARREN BUFFETT RARELY GIVES COMPLICATED NUMBERS, BUT PREFER TO STICK TO BASIC VALUATIONS.

Now I start thinking, how do I use what I know now (this was way way back in 2007) about how warren buffett does on a daily basis and use it in my valuations? Then I realized it:

BUSINESS SENSE

What is  business sense, you may ask. Business sense is very simple (and very hard) to apply because it is so laborious.

Business sense is just simply the knowledge you gain by reading and comparing thousands of  SIMILAR businesses to find the sense of commonality (or uniqueness) of the business enterprise, within its industry, within its scale of operations and quality of management.

Imagine if you will, a business like ISCAR. If you were warren buffett, you would have seen tooling companies everywhere since 1965. If you look through the years, there is nothing new in manufacturing. The processes are the same. You cant reinvent the wheel. The profits are similar. The growth rates, terminal values, market perception of these stocks are usually aligned. But when you add that to a photographic memory and a voracious appetite for information, you have something special on your hands.

IMAGINE REMEMBERING A THOUSAND TOOLING COMPANIES FINANCIAL REPORTS, THEIR STRENGTHS, THEIR WEAKNESESS, THE DEBT LOAD, THE PROFIT MARGINS, THE GROWTH RATES. ISCAR THE BUSINESS WOULD LITERALLY JUMP OUT OF THE PAGE.

In short, he mastered the art of understanding the long game. The long term growth of ISCAR was phenomenal.

Now, I am just like you. I started a simple salaryman, a manager working for a multanional earning now MYRX,000K salary every month. I am also doing MLM with AMWAY, KANGEN water and previously (until they changed the rules) insurance sales.

I had turned my previous bad fortune (losing a lot of money in the stock market) into a lifelong habit of earning multiple revenue streams (never again). These days being a diamond is no longer that difficult, but most important of all is how I changed my investing life.

ON GAINING BUSINESS SENSE

After realizing that there was no way I could be a trading master (my previous sifu could only guarantee a 40% hit rate, on 5% max floor margin per trade, with a yearly performance of 10%+ growth of asset base in a non black swan year(where he lost 35% networth), no one else I knew could do better than that on a 10 year timeline) I started thinking the other way around.

What happens if I followed WB to the letter, memorized and assigned thousands of similar companies  financial reports, quality of management and historical performance, would I be able to recognize a wonderful company when I saw one? I started a folder. It grew into multiple folders. I realized I was quickly getting out of my circle of competence. Pulled it back. 

I learned the name of the CEOS, who they were, how they started, what the average age was, was it a family business, did it have debt problems, long term growth prospects, short term stumbles, biggest humps. By using basic valuations like revenue growth, price/book, price to earnings growth, net asses growth, gearing ratios, return on equity, dividend yields, market share leadership, monopoly, duopoly, gestation period, population size, export requirements, mcdonalds index of countries, I built up a pretty clear understanding of my chosen business sense.

cryingcryingCP.FOODS, GOLD COIN HOLDINGS, SAWIT KINABALU, CARGILL, PPB GROUP, LAYHONG, CAB, MFLOUR, MALINDO FEEDMILL, TYSON FOODS,HAID, NUTRECO, HAPSENG PLANTATIONS,DE HEUS, YUETAI GROUP, NEWHOPE LIUHE(china), WEN'S FOOD GROUP(china), QL , BETAGRO GROUP(thailand), NONGHYUP FEED(korea), JAPFA (japan), SAN MIGUEL PURE FOODS (phillipines) AND MANY MANY MANY MORE.crying

i could tell you every little detail about all those companies, so much so that when I looked at QL it jumped out of the page. Now I can tell you that I was neither early or late in investing into QL, I did not invest in it in 2000, not in 2003, nor even in 2007. With this method of investing, you dont need to time your investments, you just need to be right. And so, I bought in 2009. And every quarter since, I have added a little bit, more and more reinvesting until right now I have been investing for more than 40 quarters, with 2 million shares invested (after multiple stock splits) And looking at the trajectory of QL and CP.FOODS (they own the 7-11 in thailand), I was able to build a consistent theme and a long term growth trajectory for QL. I knew what humps they will face at 1 billion market cap, 10 billion market cap, 30 billion market cap. I knew what growth triggers they will run into for the next stage (family mart, consolidation of local industry, penetration speed into new markets) just simply by comparing it to 10 years+ annual reports of all those other similar companies.

You can't reinvent the wheel. But you can sure remember a good story.

ON APPLYING BUSINESS SENSE

LET ME SET THE STAGE HERE. BEFORE YOU START, DO WATCH THE NETFLIX DOCUMENTARY, THE CHINA HUSTLE. MY DAUGHTER RECOMMENDS IT. I'VE SEEN IT, AND IT IS PERFECT FOR EXPLAINING HOW I SAVED MYSELF MILLIONS OF LOSSES IN 15 MINUTES

I remember in 2013-2014, this popped up:

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/5155_XINQUAN/annual/2014-06-30/5155_XINQUAN_AnnualReport_2014-06-30_XINGQUAN-AnnualReport2014_-1848930605.pdf

a few friends were promoting this stock, and the price had run up very nicely. The company was selling at a huge discount, with almost a billion ringgit in CASH, and the stock price was very low. It was very very (VERY) profitable, and it seemed like a dream company. 

However, I asked myself a few very simple questions:

1. Why is a company based in China, with its business and money ALL in China, want to do an IPO in MALAYSIA? The company directors and CEO can't speak a word of english or malay, what would the benefit be? And if they are not expanding into malaysia, what could that purpose be?

2. With its outsized profit margin, their products (Gertop) must be something special. What are the profit margins of similar business in China, their growth prospects, and the company ability to generate outsized profit margins over the long term?

My answer that I found?

1. I was pretty lucky here, as I frequent the seeking alpha forum often as well, and having some fun reading on a company named Muddy Waters research. (they are a specialty shorting company) They were calling out on all those reverse merger and china companies who were in cahoots with roth capital to do IPO's and share sales, where the securities companies would make millions selling penny stocks to unsuspecting american investors. i had fun reading on companies like NQ MOBILE, ABAT, SCEI, CBEH, CHPARM, CCGY and CSGH. All with the same story and same goals. IPO in foreign countries, sell shares, pump, sell warrants, repeat. dump and run back to china. 

2. I called up a friend of mine, who was one of the biggest sports apparel importers in hong kong, and he told me these companies were a dime a dozen, had low profit margins and were mostly not even that profitable. This was very different from the annual report results. I started comparing with the similar companies in the shenzhen stock exchange, and came out dumbfounded. after looking at the other bursa listings of similar china ipo stocks Multi Sports, XiDeLang, K-Star Sports Ltd and Maxwell International Holdings Bhd, i realized a horrible, repetitive pattern.

At this point, I rejected the idea of investing in a company like xingquan international, no matter how attractive it looks, no matter how wonderful the profit was. Simply because of a simple reason. 

The money is all in China, The business is all in China, The truth and the lies can only be found in China.

You cant reinvent the wheel. Most businesses are the same (99% of them in fact), 

I am still searching for the rest of the 1%

I hope you learned something,

Philip (notFisher)

 

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qqq3 sslee

u have a need to be superhero? save the world?

go and talk about your hero that OTB and his

- LionInd and that HBI thing....small little plant in Labuan worth worth more than market cap...he says.
- Hengyuan , worth $ 40 he says
- and his latest scams?
17/01/2019 7:38 AM
qqq3 - LionInd and that HBI thing....small little plant in Labuan worth worth more than market cap...he says.

but u defended him with tooth and nails, didn't you?
17/01/2019 7:39 AM
Sslee Dear all,
Lionind financial year report 2018 page 46:
The HBI operation’s revenue increased by 24% to RM833 million this year from RM671 million a year ago due to higher average selling price. By managing its working capital closely and efficiently, particularly in inventory control for both its raw materials and finished goods, the HBI operations continued to achieve an improved performance in the financial year under review. As such, our HBI operations posted a higher operating profit of RM107 million as compared to RM67 million last year.

I respect people that are hard working, looking into all the data available (FA) and make recommendation base of TA uptrend with TP and cut loss.
I despise people with lazy and envy attitude unable to produce any worthwhile research and had to make a living by PLP super-investor and conned everyone to Holland.

Yes, stockraider is wrong to set a sky high TP for Hengyuan by assuming the good profit EPS RM 3.00 in FY 2017 is sustainable moving forward. However he had acknowledged his mistake and move on. But do I hear “You-Know-Who” acknowledge his mistake and make apology for JAKS and SENDAI? He is still behaves as he had done no wrong and his shameless behavior is second to none even outgunned our shameless MO1 to shame and still has the gut to boast about it and talk cock in i3.
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 2, 2018 01:43 AM | Report Abuse
kc u fail to understand, Jaks and Sendai are the 2 counters I made the most money...and why not? when I know the chong ker.....and I have the killer instinct..........

Thank you
17/01/2019 8:14 AM
qqq3 Jaks and sendai price dropping previously due to KYY selling......simple as that...Like that also don't know?

from 30% to 0%...u think easy to sell?
17/01/2019 8:23 AM
3iii >>>Yes, stockraider is wrong to set a sky high TP for Hengyuan by assuming the good profit EPS RM 3.00 in FY 2017 is sustainable moving forward. However he had acknowledged his mistake and move on.<<<<



He was dishonest.
17/01/2019 8:25 AM
qqq3 sslee...your super hero is the one who moves markets .....I am just a small time trader....u idiot.....


yes, he moves markets by his calculations that say Hengyuan worth $ 40.
17/01/2019 8:28 AM
qqq3 Posted by Sslee > Jan 17, 2019 08:14 AM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Lionind financial year report 2018 page 46:
The HBI operation’s revenue increased by 24% to RM833 million this year from RM671 million a year ago due to higher average selling price. By managing its working capital closely and efficiently, particularly in inventory control for both its raw materials and finished goods, the HBI operations continued to achieve an improved performance in the financial year under review. As such, our HBI operations posted a higher operating profit of RM107 million as compared to RM67 million last year.
==============


too bad, an analyst cannot just look at the profitable divisions and ignores the loss making ones.....That is not how market works......
17/01/2019 9:03 AM
Jason Toshi Ho To be honest SSLee, if you think deeply about it, why did Warren buffet and Berkshire not go around telling everyone what they bought after they bought it. They know the wb effect, the moment they buy everyone will rush in thinking he knows something. In fact they get a special approval from sc not to let anyone know they bought a stock.

But why does kyy spend the time to tell you what he buys right after he buys it? He knows the price will go up, and because he is the big fish everyone joins in to buy on demand, thinking he knows something.

This is the kyy effect.

At the same time when he sells, he doesn't tell you first before hand. He sells first then tells you why it is not a good buy.

It is like Stockraider frontloading his stocks, Calvin tan frontloading his recommendations, all of them see the need to post on capital letters what they bought, why they bought and how they bought.

But do they ever put their money where their mouth is? Do they tell you the amount they have bought, how much shares they bought, when they sold, how much they are selling when they sell?NO!

But they know how to recommend.

Do you see me hanging around in topglove, public Bank, yinson page recommending and posting up buy recommendations?

What would be the motive behind those actions?

The only reason why I started posting is not because I want to run up ql prices ( which is nuts if you think about it at pe50 at your own risk), but it is because I wanted to share some information on investing which I think the Malaysian investors are not training themselve to improve on. Look to the business first. Then the value. Then the timing.

In fact, I believe our bursa Malaysia would be much bigger and more effective if all the local investors can recognized bad companies and pump and dump activities and refuse to invest in those companies.

If you reward good companies with long term shareholdings support and belief, I think in the long run our economy would do well.

It is when the perception that investing in Malaysia is a casino, a gambling den to make quick money that things fall apart.

Haha I'm sorry I'm starting to sound like you. All about religion and ethics. Old men will be old men.
17/01/2019 9:08 AM
stockraider Posted by stockraider > Jan 17, 2019 09:15 AM | Report Abuse X

This 3iii is a man of bad faith & bad heart and has spiteful intention to attack & slander raider even he know raider is honest & had good intention loh...!!

Despite raider good intention to clarify below loh this still to slander raider loh..!!

Raider ask lah..!! when raider charge in n commented at Hengyuan at Rm 3.00 the share shoot up to Rm 19.00 within a period of 1 yrs a 6 baggers loh..!!

If u look at Nestle and QL it takes at least 6 to 10 years to achieve this equivalent feat of 6 baggers loh...!! Not only that after achieving this performance Nestle and QL trade at PE 50x and Hengyuan still trade at around 6.5x even its share price at rm 19.00 mah...!!

In addition Hengyuan profit growth exceed 100%, u compare Nestle & QL growth between 10% to 20% and furthermore this hengyuan prospect is supported by future crack spread avg exceeding USD 8 over 12 mths periods....ranging from Usd 7 to 10

Looking at that good piece of information r u not extremely please leh ?? Thats the reason why raider very bullish even Rm 15.00 call for a buy mah....!! It is genuine honest opinion not as what bad faith 3iii claim with an evil intention to slander raider loh...!!

A VERY GOOD QUESTION POSE BY 3iii HERE LOH...!!

REMEMBER GRAHAM PRINCIPLE LOH...!!
Ben Graham did advocate 2 investment method loh:

1. margin of safety investment taking advantage of soochai Mr market.
2. Growth stock investment mah...!!

This 3iii is confuse loh...he thought, buy hold growth stock is the original margin of safety investment which is really not loh, ben graham really prefer the insas way more loh..!! Especially for the beginners mah who have not much capital mah..!!

Raider say the best is to invest based on margin of safety but if u happen to stumble to any quality growth stock under this category, u just hold tight abit longer, if u r lazy u can hold forever too loh..!!

HENGYUAN AT RM 4.00 BELOW IS A CLASSIC MARGIN MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK..IN FACT RAIDER ADVOCATE STRONG BUY AT AROUND RM 3.00 BUT THIS 3iii SAYS SELL SO HIS GIRL FRIEND AHMOI, WHO SOLD AROUND RM 3.00, MISS A BIG OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE HUGE PROFIT, WHEN HENGYUAN SUBSEQUENTLY SHOOT UP TO RM 19.00 LOH...!!

RAIDER AT RM 15.00 STILL ADVOCATE BUY BCOS RAIDER HAS BEEN CONVERTED FROM A MARGIN OF SAFETY VALUE INVESTOR TO A GROWTH INVESTOR WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY BASED ON EARNINGS MEASUREMENT MAH, BCOS HENGYUAN PROFIT HAS GROWN FROM EPS RM 1.00 TO RM 3.00 PER SHARE MAH...!! THIS IS LINE WITH GROWTH COUNTERS LIKE NESTLE, QL AND DUTCH LADY LOH...!!

AT ONE TIME HENGYUAN OFFICIALLY EPS AT RM 3.00 EVEN EXCEEDED NESTLE PROFITABILITY TO BECOME THE HIGHEST IN KLSE MAH...!!

SO RAIDER WAS CALLING THAT HENGYUAN SHOULD WORTH RM 30.00, BCOS IT IS BACK UP BY EARNINGS & GROWTH MAH....!!

BUT SUBSEQUENTLY HENGYUAN SHARE PRICE FALTER LOH...BCOS EARNINGS EXPECTATION FALTER LOH...!!

WHAT DO WE LEARN HERE ? THIS IS A GOOD LESSON FOR GROWTH INVESTOR & FOR PEOPLE WHO LEARN THE DANGER TO CHASE HIGH EXPECTATION STOCKS LIKE QL, NESTLE, DLADY AND PETDAG...RAIDER HAS LEARN HERE TO WATCH UP FOR EARNINGS DISAPPOINTMENT..& ALWAYS LEAVE THE PARTY EARLIER WHEN THINGS ARE FAVORABLE MAH & NOT TO OVERSTAY LOH..!!

THIS HENGYUAN GROWTH SHARE PRICE COLLAPSE WHEN EARNINGS DISAPPOINT START WITHOUT WARNING LOH..!!THUS THE DANGER THIS IS APPLICABLE FOR GROWTH TYPE OF STOCK INVESTMENT LIKE QL, NESTLE N DUTCH LADY WITH HIGH EXPECTATION & NOT APPLICABLE TO THE DEFENSIVE THE VALUE MARGIN OF SAFETY TYPE OF INVESTORS LIKE INSAS WHEN THE CASH HOLDING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS ITS SHARE PRICE MAH..!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 17, 2019 08:25 AM | Report Abuse

>>>Yes, stockraider is wrong to set a sky high TP for Hengyuan by assuming the good profit EPS RM 3.00 in FY 2017 is sustainable moving forward. However he had acknowledged his mistake and move on.<<<<
He was dishonest.
17/01/2019 9:16 AM
3iii >>>>
The only reason why I started posting is not because I want to run up ql prices ( which is nuts if you think about it at pe50 at your own risk), but it is because I wanted to share some information on investing which I think the Malaysian investors are not training themselve to improve on. Look to the business first. Then the value. Then the timing.
>>>>>



Clap. Clap. Clap.
17/01/2019 9:17 AM
3iii >>>>It is like Stockraider frontloading his stocks, Calvin tan frontloading his recommendations, all of them see the need to post on capital letters what they bought, why they bought and how they bought. <<<<



You cannot have a good deal with people lacking integrity.

Learn to recognise and avoid.
17/01/2019 9:19 AM
3iii >>>But why does kyy spend the time to tell you what he buys right after he buys it? He knows the price will go up, and because he is the big fish everyone joins in to buy on demand, thinking he knows something.

This is the kyy effect.
<<<<<




When I first heard of KYY and know of his prowess in stocks, I asked a stockbroker company owner about this interesting investor. His opinion was also as above. Be careful, he never tells you when he starts to sell. Of course, he has no obligation to do so either.
17/01/2019 9:23 AM
stockraider Raider see this Mr Long telling dishonesty, by creating story about other people like Calvin , Raider and SSLEE but he is the one running around telling people how much stock on QL he has and boasting around how much he make loh...!!

What is his intention leh ?? Same lah creating hero worship story ala kyy style loh....!!

Please lah, don call the kettle black mah...when u r Blacker mah..!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 17, 2019 09:08 AM | Report Abuse

To be honest SSLee, if you think deeply about it, why did Warren buffet and Berkshire not go around telling everyone what they bought after they bought it. They know the wb effect, the moment they buy everyone will rush in thinking he knows something. In fact they get a special approval from sc not to let anyone know they bought a stock.

But why does kyy spend the time to tell you what he buys right after he buys it? He knows the price will go up, and because he is the big fish everyone joins in to buy on demand, thinking he knows something.

This is the kyy effect.

At the same time when he sells, he doesn't tell you first before hand. He sells first then tells you why it is not a good buy.

It is like Stockraider frontloading his stocks, Calvin tan frontloading his recommendations, all of them see the need to post on capital letters what they bought, why they bought and how they bought.

But do they ever put their money where their mouth is? Do they tell you the amount they have bought, how much shares they bought, when they sold, how much they are selling when they sell?NO!

But they know how to recommend.

Do you see me hanging around in topglove, public Bank, yinson page recommending and posting up buy recommendations?

What would be the motive behind those actions?

The only reason why I started posting is not because I want to run up ql prices ( which is nuts if you think about it at pe50 at your own risk), but it is because I wanted to share some information on investing which I think the Malaysian investors are not training themselve to improve on. Look to the business first. Then the value. Then the timing.

In fact, I believe our bursa Malaysia would be much bigger and more effective if all the local investors can recognized bad companies and pump and dump activities and refuse to invest in those companies.

If you reward good companies with long term shareholdings support and belief, I think in the long run our economy would do well.

It is when the perception that investing in Malaysia is a casino, a gambling den to make quick money that things fall apart.

Haha I'm sorry I'm starting to sound like you. All about religion and ethics. Old men will be old men.
17/01/2019 9:25 AM
qqq3 think before u write....raider...white don't become black just because u say so....and black don't become white.
17/01/2019 9:32 AM
3iii >>>Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 09:32 AM | Report Abuse

think before u write....raider...white don't become black just because u say so....and black don't become white.<<<



So glad you noticed this too.
17/01/2019 9:36 AM
stockraider U need to be honest loh...!!

When people give u an opinion to buy it is done with kind intention, if u decide to buy bcos u have a choice to ignore mah...!!

Having bought the share ?? Do u expect the tipster tell u when to sell meh ??
Yes sometime they may tell u, when to sell again, this is another good intention mah....!! U should treat it as an extra bonus loh..!!

Please lah...don expect free lunch everytime mah...!!
U need to assess for yourself mah...!!
U can expect yourself to be totally spoon feed like what the ridiculous way that MR Long and 3iii has put it u r asking for trouble loh...!!

As an investor u need to graduate mah....if not don waste time investing loh....! Spoonfeed investment is very dangerous loh...even the tipster got good intention to share with u and help u may not able to tell u mah.

In time of crisis the tipster may even have more trouble than u, he may need to take care of himself, wife, siblings, relative , best friend, good friends, girl friends etc....he may missed out u, bcos he do not even know whether u have bought or not mah...!!

So pls lah for your own good...if u get a tips..don expect them to tell u when to sell loh....!!

Posted by 3iii > Jan 17, 2019 09:23 AM | Report Abuse

>>>But why does kyy spend the time to tell you what he buys right after he buys it? He knows the price will go up, and because he is the big fish everyone joins in to buy on demand, thinking he knows something.

This is the kyy effect. <

When I first heard of KYY and know of his prowess in stocks, I asked a stockbroker company owner about this interesting investor. His opinion was also as above. Be careful, he never tells you when he starts to sell. Of course, he has no obligation to do so either.
17/01/2019 9:42 AM
Jason Toshi Ho I stopped listening to Stockraider when he started comparing stock performance of ql and insas after 9 days of a 2 year future comparison. Without seeing quarterly reports and yearly annual reports he thinks just because because his insas share goes up from 0.67-0.7 it must be better than ql.

His idea of value investing is simply absurd. How he thinks how he acts you know he will buy and sell shares after a few months, then panic selling when recession comes.

But of course he is a master chun chun call millionaire
17/01/2019 10:43 AM
stockraider If u run a marathon race 50km....after running 1 km, r u not interested the position of the participants todate leh ??

The fact is QL is the last does not mean it could not catch up mah, if u read raider comment carefully mah, but the main point is raider do not see anything special about Ql in the race loh....!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 17, 2019 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

I stopped listening to Stockraider when he started comparing stock performance of ql and insas after 9 days of a 2 year future comparison. Without seeing quarterly reports and yearly annual reports he thinks just because because his insas share goes up from 0.67-0.7 it must be better than ql.

His idea of value investing is simply absurd. How he thinks how he acts you know he will buy and sell shares after a few months, then panic selling when recession comes.

But of course he is a master chun chun call millionair
17/01/2019 11:07 AM
Jason Toshi Ho Obviously the best way is still build business sense for yourself. Buy the stock and wait for kyy, choivo, sslee and Stockraider to come riding in.

Would this mean people like qqq3 is a far smarter trader than them?

And yes I use the term trader because that is what Stockraider is. A trader filling himself into thinking he is a value investor.
17/01/2019 11:08 AM
qqq3 someone with a full time job should not be a trader, cannot be a good trader.

a retired person can be a trader.....if he has the right temperaments and intellectual capacity.
17/01/2019 11:17 AM
stockraider Mr Long,

U have no principle & u do not stand firm to ur investment principle mah.....!!

How could u recommend & endorse soochai qqq trading principle as a good way of investment when u do not subscribe to his method yourself ??

I know u r frustrated in your arguement with raider & sslee bcos we anchor our ourselves with sound investment principle of Ben Graham mah..!

Yes u may be losing the arguement, but pls lah don be emotional & simply endorse soochai qq methods to your followers mah...!!

Your followers have high opinion of u, but pls lah do not disappoint them loh..!!
17/01/2019 11:19 AM
qqq3 there are lots and lots of silent readers who appreciates and benefits from philips contributions....

and your only contribution raider?

penny stocks ( with NTA) is margin of safety ...blue chips are not safe....

Hengyuan one or two quarters good earnings is margin of safety.

Too shallow.
17/01/2019 11:28 AM
stockraider yes i agree, thats why raider advice Mr long don be childish & emotional in his decision to endorse soochai qqq trading methods, in the end, disappiont his follower mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

there are lots and lots of silent readers who appreciates and benefits from philips contributions....

and your only contribution raider?

penny stocks ( with NTA) is margin of safety ...blue chips are not safe....

Hengyuan one or two quarters good earnings is margin of safety.

Too shallow.

Posted by stockraider > Jan 17, 2019 11:19 AM | Report Abuse X

Mr Long,

U have no principle & u do not stand firm to ur investment principle mah.....!!

How could u recommend & endorse soochai qqq trading principle as a good way of investment when u do not subscribe to his method yourself ??

I know u r frustrated in your arguement with raider & sslee bcos we anchor our ourselves with sound investment principle of Ben Graham mah..!

Yes u may be losing the arguement, but pls lah don be emotional & simply endorse soochai qq methods to your followers mah...!!

Your followers have high opinion of u, but pls lah do not disappoint them loh..!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 17, 2019 11:08 AM | Report Abuse

Obviously the best way is still build business sense for yourself. Buy the stock and wait for kyy, choivo, sslee and Stockraider to come riding in.

Would this mean people like qqq3 is a far smarter trader than them?

And yes I use the term trader because that is what Stockraider is. A trader filling himself into thinking he is a value investor.
17/01/2019 11:34 AM
qqq3 and too repetitive...no good contribution from raider....just a useless troll.

raid..if u go missing, no one will or should miss u.....
17/01/2019 11:40 AM
stockraider QQQ,

U evil n stupid loh...!!

see how u comment about sslee leh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Jan 17, 2019 12:11 AM | Report Abuse X

qqq,

U r very rude & useless loh...!!

People polite also cannot ah ??

U R real idiot loh....!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 12:07 AM | Report Abuse

sslee

the truth...u are just an idiot....

anyway...never like people who so polite like you....ending every post here with thank you....just like that OTB...same same gene, I guess.

tricky people.

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 11:40 AM | Report Abuse

and too repetitive...no good contribution from raider....just a useless troll.

raid..if u go missing, no one will or should miss u.....
17/01/2019 11:47 AM
qqq3 Vitrox....no other ( or very very few) local company more innovative, more relevant to Industrial 4.0, more flexible, more competently managed.

from page 27 of AR

Adoption of Industrial 4.0 into the electronics manufacturing industry creates great opportunities for our advanced 2D & 3D vision
inspection equipment. Armed with V-ONE cloud based “Software as a Science” (SaaS) tool that comes with machine to machine
connectivity & communication, data analytic and self-learning capability, our customers now can reap the benefits of Industrial
4.0 where key manufacturing and equipment information is made available easily everywhere, anytime via dashboard that can
be self-customized according to customers' requirements. In addition, predictive analytics, alert trigger plan and ticketing trigger
system are core features available in the V-ONE application that will further boost customers' productivity and effectiveness in
their manufacturing floor.
Apart from the above, in the next few years, ViTrox business strategy will be shifted from purely organic growth to pursuing both
organic growth and mergers and acquisitions to increase total addressable market and technological breakthrough.
With ViTrox long term and strategic initiatives and investment in the new data centric era, ViTrox is ready to capture the growth
opportunities brought about by the Industrial 4.0.

===========

Highly recommended for long term investors. Markets will go up and down...but this company got only one way to go and that is UP......
17/01/2019 11:59 AM
stockraider lets mark this price rm 6.24 based on qqq recommendations loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 11:59 AM | Report Abuse

Vitrox....no other ( or very very few) local company more innovative, more relevant to Industrial 4.0, more flexible, more competently managed.

from page 27 of AR

Adoption of Industrial 4.0 into the electronics manufacturing industry creates great opportunities for our advanced 2D & 3D vision
inspection equipment. Armed with V-ONE cloud based “Software as a Science” (SaaS) tool that comes with machine to machine
connectivity & communication, data analytic and self-learning capability, our customers now can reap the benefits of Industrial
4.0 where key manufacturing and equipment information is made available easily everywhere, anytime via dashboard that can
be self-customized according to customers' requirements. In addition, predictive analytics, alert trigger plan and ticketing trigger
system are core features available in the V-ONE application that will further boost customers' productivity and effectiveness in
their manufacturing floor.
Apart from the above, in the next few years, ViTrox business strategy will be shifted from purely organic growth to pursuing both
organic growth and mergers and acquisitions to increase total addressable market and technological breakthrough.
With ViTrox long term and strategic initiatives and investment in the new data centric era, ViTrox is ready to capture the growth
opportunities brought about by the Industrial 4.0.

===========

Highly recommended for long term investors. Markets will go up and down...but this company got only one way to go and that is UP......
17/01/2019 12:03 PM
qqq3 stockraider > Jan 17, 2019 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

lets mark this price rm 6.24 based on qqq recommendations loh...!!
============

I accept the challenge.
17/01/2019 12:06 PM
qqq3 The skill set of this company...in machine learning and machine vision,......... and its huge R&D budget means it will always be innovative, relevant, flexible.

And this being the leader in Malaysia, the smaller ones got no chance.

"Apart from the above, in the next few years, ViTrox business strategy will be shifted from purely organic growth to pursuing both
organic growth and mergers and acquisitions to increase total addressable market and technological breakthrough"

the smaller ones will be eaten up by this fellow.
17/01/2019 12:15 PM
Sslee Dear Mr. Philip,
Koon’s golden rule: Two quarter of increase profit and PE below10 (safety margin).
Sell when two quarter of decrease profit or he has found another better stock to buy.

For beginners that do not have time to read and do their own in-depth research like you: Look to business first then the value then the timing, I would say Koon’s golden rule is relatively safe.
Once I comment that Mr. Koon can move the stock price because he buys with very big capital but ultimately the stock price performance will depend on achieving those increase profit expectation.
I added since Mr. Koon is well known opposite supporter and MCA enemy No.1 and share mover (a target for pump and dump syndicate) he needs to filter carefully letters send to him on share recommendation or meeting with sweet talkers with their own hidden agenda or else he will became water fish for the big shark.
Hence when he started to promote JAKS and SEDAI with his pivotal moment and exception proves the rule, I term these as jumping the gun and rule are for all without exception. The rest is history.

Allow me to repost some of my previous comments:
“This forum is not toxic nor unhelpful, there are so many Sifu in this forum spending their valuable time and give free different opinion/view base on past performance (fact and figure), projected future earnings growth and etc. Many of the i3 community benefited from these diverse views so that many readers can make an informed decision on adding or selling their holding.”

“I am learning to be humble and learn from all. And one thing that every reader in i3 needs to learn fast is to identify the true nature/characters of many commentators in i3. Previously I wrote: “In i3 community, we have super-investors, professional fund managers, investment educators, preachers, old-timers, syndicate manipulators, day traders, part-timers, naysayers, jokers, haters, sadists, dreamers, idealist, PLP king and newbie. These had make i3 a diverse and plural community with diverse views and opinions, all are welcome. By now you should have know many of them by their comments or blogs in i3
I am a newbie in investment and a bit idealist and believe in goodness inside every human being. I had travelled the world and met all sort of people and had tried my best not to be judgmental on people and everybody deserves a second chance, because life is too complicated to get it right the first time.”

“Everyone should be respected as an individual, but no one idolized” – Albert Einstein.

Thank you
P/S: What Einstein probably meant by this is that each human being has some quality in them that is admirable. And also, each person is a respectable human being in society (except for the outlaws, criminals, etc. Who have been introduced a dark aspect of life) each person deserves to be respected in a society.
Respecting and idolizing have a fine difference. You respect someone you can be critical about their lifestyle, their choices and decisions. Each person has his/ her own opinion, obviously. That's the beauty of diversity socially and biologically.
When someone idolises someone, their thoughts and opinions about the person get diluted and they believe whatever their idol does is right and brilliant. They stop critically analysing their actions and steps and also start fostering their idol's beliefs.
17/01/2019 1:12 PM
qqq3 The novice teaching Koon about share market....this arrogant novice will liberally throw out words such as humility etc and thank yous too....

tricky ...very tricky.
17/01/2019 2:13 PM
Flintstones Long numbers guy does not have to entertain sslee and stock raider. This two are asset value investors. No amount of facts could change their beliefs.
17/01/2019 2:19 PM
qqq3 ss

Koon will say he eat salt more than u eat rice.....then how?
17/01/2019 2:19 PM
qqq3 mr novice lee

u want to teach Koon about stock market, go ahead, don't have to tell us that.....

just a few sentences already got Koon, got Einstein, got PLP what else?
17/01/2019 2:37 PM
Jason Toshi Ho I think the biggest missaplication here is the understanding of the word PE. I will try to do a long winded explanation on the logic behind the usage of PE because I think a lot of investors don't understand it properly.

I apologize in advance to Stockraider for being long-winded. My previous post it seems no one understood.
17/01/2019 2:45 PM
John_Lee qqq3, well we have already established that Sslee is weird. After this comment, maybe he will write and dedicate another article to the 2 of us for calling him weird.

----------

qqq3 The novice teaching Koon about share market....this arrogant novice will liberally throw out words such as humility etc and thank yous too....
17/01/2019 3:14 PM
qqq3 John, sure u want to join me or not?

that ss guy more sticky than the Nazis.
17/01/2019 3:16 PM
John_Lee qqq3, I just have to let my heart say something out. I was trying to hold back but this Sslee's postings are so annoying. Can see that long number guy also losing patience with him.
17/01/2019 3:28 PM
John_Lee Raider, cut your losses here. Too many of your detractors in this chatroom. You have your method, they have yours. There's not going to be a compromise. No one is completely correct, neither is anyone comepletely wrong.

No point getting yourself all worked up.
17/01/2019 3:32 PM
stockraider John Lee,

Raider is having fun here mah...!!
No need to be so serious loh...!!
If raider don counter them with intelligently with positive margin of safety these people will talk cock until stock with PE 50x & above should chase loh....!!

Investment should not be based on PE at all as long u have grandfather story loh,,,!!

We don want newbies be mislead...even if they chose to be mislead...they should hear both side of balance arguement mah...!!

Posted by John_Lee > Jan 17, 2019 03:32 PM | Report Abuse

Raider, cut your losses here. Too many of your detractors in this chatroom. You have your method, they have yours. There's not going to be a compromise. No one is completely correct, neither is anyone comepletely wrong.

No point getting yourself all worked up.
17/01/2019 3:49 PM
3iii The most noisy participants in this forum (in no specific order):


raider
SSLee
Mr. 1015
3iii
Icon8888
Calvintan
KCChong
KYY
qqq3
JonChoivo
Dompeilee
Speakup
pang72


..
..
..




Probably less than 20 who are making the most noises here.
17/01/2019 4:19 PM
qqq3 value here value there....can buy Vitrox or QL or not at any stage in the last few years?

value here value there....I remember in 2017, when asked, KC recommends people to sell Vitrox at $ 3 after the surge from $2 to $ 3..( all adjusted prices)....It has never been "cheap". Good shares are never "cheap"

yes, PE is one of the factors to consider when buying a share. On average u don't buy a PE 50 share because at that rate it takes 50 years of earnings to be equivalent to the price....The key words being " on average"

But , it is your job as investor, if u want to make good money, is to find the exceptional shares....not the average shares.

If are satisfied with average performance, then be an average investor la.....we are talking about those with above average intelligence and above average ambitions.
17/01/2019 4:26 PM
3iii The most noisy participants in this forum (in no specific order):


raider
SSLee
Mr. 1015
3iii
Icon8888
Calvintan
KCChong
KYY
qqq3
JonChoivo
Dompeilee
Speakup
pang72


..
..
..




Probably less than 20 who are making the most noises here.



Profiling (my impression):


raider: cocky, argumentative, must win, margin of safety, leech, lacking integrity

SSLee: still groping, lacking a good philosophy and strategy, good story teller, writes well but too lengthy, why not spend more time improving on strategy.

Mr. 1015: recent appearance, impressive record, keep a few great stocks in a basket and observe closely, concentrated portfolio, having been to Buffett's meeting (a feather in his cap - this tells a lot of the man).

Icon8888: probably from this industry, not familiar with his postings, will observe for now.

Calvintan: deep value investor, practising Benjamin Graham's value investing, probably need to read more of Benjamin Graham, he may have got Graham's concept totally wrong, otherwise how to explain him stuck in lousy stocks for years, issue of integrity again - suddenly he owns a stock that started its momentum climb. :-)

KCChong: great teacher, has the right philosophy, probably safe in his investing, appears cautious (to me at least), go for it, embrace Buffett's "It's better to own a wonderful company at fair price than a fair company at wonderful price." , try this and enjoy.

KYY: superinvestor, huge capital at play, has a lot of resources, at this age the aim is not to gather the most wealth, probably wrong priority in life set at this advance age, however his passion for stock trading is obvious.

qqq3: interesting chap, though gets a lot of brickbats from his adversaries, nonetheless his postings have some depth, in particular with regard to human nature and some investing strategies.

Continue later
17/01/2019 4:30 PM
stockraider Again this qqq talk cock looking at the rear mirror who cannot leh ??

If u r so brave & positive about it, why don u buy & sailang leh ??

Instead of keep harping & blaming...kc this...kc that...why don u grow up...and tell people...with ur head high...yes this is the stock i like...this is the stock i buy....this is stock i will sailang mah...!!

Show u have big balls mah...!!

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 17, 2019 04:26 PM | Report Abuse

value here value there....can buy Vitrox or QL or not at any stage in the last few years?

value here value there....I remember in 2017, when asked, KC recommends people to sell Vitrox at $ 3 after the surge from $2 to $ 3..( all adjusted prices)....It has never been "cheap". Good shares are never "cheap"

yes, PE is one of the factors to consider when buying a share. On average u don't buy a PE 50 share because at that rate it takes 50 years of earnings to be equivalent to the price....The key words being " on average"

But , it is your job as investor, if u want to make good money, is to find the exceptional shares....not the average shares.

If are satisfied with average performance, then be an average investor la.....we are talking about those with above average intelligence and above average ambitions.
17/01/2019 4:35 PM
qqq3 Posted by stockraider > Jan 17, 2019 04:35 PM | Report Abuse

Show u have big balls mah...!!
=========

Balls....balls are what makes things happen...I don't say I have bigger balls than others....But I am sure I have bigger and better brain than the raider.
17/01/2019 4:43 PM
qqq3 Posted by 3iii > Jan 17, 2019 04:30 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888: probably from this industry, not familiar with his postings, will observe for now.
=============

no more rubbish (stock recommendations) from icon ....learn his lesson already.

they say cannot teach old dog new tricks but this old dog is exception.
17/01/2019 5:11 PM
Sslee Dear 3iii
I quote your comment: qqq3: interesting chap, though gets a lot of brickbats from his adversaries, nonetheless his postings have some depth, in particular with regard to human nature and some investing strategies.” unquote

Please read with your both eyes open wide-wide “You –Know –Who” blogs and thousand and thousand of comments: Sailang, Margin Finance, X factor, Dynamic investment, flexibility, PLP king, envy of OTB and KCChong success and trolling OTB and KC with all sort of low blows, inflammatory and digressive, extraneous and often off-topic slanders to try to impressed and pleased his ex-master KYY. Now everyone knew he is just a chicken trader. Tell me how to be as rich as KYY and drive a Rolls-Royce if he admitted now his investing strategy is PLP super-investor and hope to receive some crumb from super-investor. LOL

Have you heard “You-Know-Who” acknowledge his mistake and make apology for promoting day and night non-stop with sailang and margin finance in JAKS and SENDAI? He is still behaves as he had done no wrong and his shameless behavior is second to none and can even outgunned our shameless MO1 to shame and still has the gut to boast about it and talk cock in i3.
Posted by qqq3 > Nov 2, 2018 01:43 AM | Report Abuse
kc u fail to understand, Jaks and Sendai are the 2 counters I made the most money...and why not? when I know the chong ker.....and I have the killer instinct..........

Thank you.
17/01/2019 6:02 PM
qqq3 sslee

U have gone far far beyond decency....far far beyond norms....u chau for- yap - mor or what? I really don't care.
17/01/2019 7:04 PM
stockraider U NEED TO ASK THIS VERY INTELLIGENT QUESTION WHY INSAS IS MUCH SUPERIOR THAN MOST OF THE BLUECHIPS & GROWTH STOCK MAH ?? :

Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:19 PM | Report Abuse X

U ask yourself what type of earning power ??
When Nestle earnings yield is less than 2% pa based on PE above 50%...even u put monies in fixed deposits u get an earning power of 4% pa mah....!!

If u buy insas got earning power as Pe less than 10x...earning yield already exceed 10% pa mah...!!

Margin of Safety for those who are invested in Nestle, DLady, PBB, Petdag and HEIM, as explained and taught by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning power considerably above the going rate for bonds.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earning power over bond interest may aggregate 50% of the price paid.

This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety— which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss.


stockraider
9093 posts
Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:31 PM | Report Abuse X

U need understand what is real earning power loh...!!

Insas ROE only 4% pa....but based on rm 2.54 u generating eps of Rm 0.10 pa loh....!!

so if u buy insas at rm 0.70 u r getting yield of 14% pa....this is what we call earning power loh...!!


stockraider
9093 posts
Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 08:49 PM | Report Abuse X

Nestle ROE very terror 120% pa with NTA of Rm 3.00 it generate earnings of Rm 3.60....but u need to buy nestle for Rm 140.00...so ur earnings yield is less than 2.6 % pa loh...!!

Now u compare nestle 2.6% pa v insas 14% pa, u ask who got more earnings power leh ??
Of course Insas mah...14& pa warnings yield even kindy student understand 14% pa is more than 2.6% pa mah..!

But growth proponent may argue, nestle have growth woh ??

Raider ask very logical question loh...how much growth & for how long nestle need to grow from 2.6% pa to catch up with insas yield of 14% pa even, if u assume insas has no growth at all loh...!!

The answer is very long and very uncertain when nestle can catch up mah...!!

An english old saying a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush mah...!!
Insas yield is already there with 14%pa...now u want to speculate nestle yield 2.6% pa can catch up, but when leh ??

Thus insas has definitely has higher margin of safety than nestle loh..!!


Posted by stockraider > Jan 18, 2019 05:59 PM | Report Abuse X

The beauty of Insas....!!

1.CASH IS THE KING- IF U BELIEVE....THEN U MUST BELIEVE IN INSAS HATHWAY A TRULY WARREN BUFFET STOCK LOH...!!

2. SUP SUP SUI INSAS GENERATE SUSTAINABLE PE ABOUT 6X BEATING AEONCR WITH PE 12X BY A MILE.

3, INSAS PAYS 2 SEN DIV...THIS DIV YIELD EVEN BEAT NESTLE N QL DIV YIELD BY A MILE LOH...!! U NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHY NESTLE & QL CANNOT EVEN PAY DECENT DIV COMPARE TO INSAS LEH ?? THIS IS BCOS THESE SO CALLED GROWTH STOCKS WITH PE ABOVE 50, CANNOT GENERATE GOOD CASHFLOW, THEIR PROFITS ARE STUCKED IN EQUIPMENT, DEBTORS AND INVENTORY WITH SUBJECT TO IMPAIRMENT, WHEREAS INSAS MAKE ITS MONEY IN CASH N JUST SUP SUP SUI LOH.....
20/01/2019 12:10 AM
stockraider stockraider
9118 posts
Posted by stockraider > Jan 19, 2019 02:38 PM | Report Abuse X

UNLIKE THIS MR LONG, THIS SSLEE HAS READ AND UNDERSTAND AND COMMENTED THE BUSINESS OF QL VERY WELL LOH, WHEREAS THIS MR LONG UNDERSTAND THE BUSINESS OF INSAS LOH....!!

THESE CORE BUSINESS OF INSAS IS HIGHLY PROFITABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR MAH...!!

INSAS MAIN BUSINESS IS NOT INARI ALONE IT COMPRISES OF;

1. STOCKBROKING, INVESTMENT & ADVISORY.
2. MONEY LENDING & LEASING
3, INARI AS AN ASSOCIATE
4. MANY OTHER BUSINESS

INARI ONLY CONTRIBUTE ABOUT 25% PROFIT TO INSAS THE REST ARE MAKE UP BY A BIG CHUNKED OF FINANCIAL SECTOR PROFIT SECTOR CONTRIBUTION LOH....!!


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 19, 2019 09:40 AM | Report Abuse

But you can't escape one undeniable fact.

Insas main profit driver is only from 1 activity, dividend of inari and sales of inari share to provide profit. However it uses those earnings on activities such as funding fintech(numoni) which is not competitive, dome cafe, which is non competitive, sengenic which sounds interesting but does not contribute anything. Nothing they do has shown any formn of growth that should award it a big share price increase.

On the other hand, you also cannot avoid:
Ql started in a industry with high capex and low margins. And yet it's management has used every cent of those earnings and embarked on organic growth in their core management competence by investing in new businessess that are wildly successful. It started from feedmill trading and venture into integrated livestock which is bigger than layhong today.. then it venture into palm oil plantations right before the palm oil boom of 2007. Then it venture into marine catch and surimi bec
20/01/2019 12:10 AM


 

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