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Author: Tan KW   |   Latest post: Tue, 2 Jun 2020, 6:37 PM

 

国际油价若不回扬‧棕油最低或跌至2000令吉

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(吉隆坡27日讯)若国际油价在今年杪无法回扬,兴业研究预计原棕油价格可能最低会跌至每公吨2000令吉。

兴业表示,棕油与石汽油(POGO)价差为37美元,而印尼生物柴油减少了210万桶,库存比例从18.6%至24.4%,从历史数据来看,那么原棕油每公吨价格,最低可能会跌至2000至2200令吉。

兴业说,内部研究数据预测,冠病可在上半年控制,那么第二种预测的可能性更高。欧盟、美国及中国的需求将走低。

连同印尼库存计算在内,预测原棕油将走低380万吨,库存量将从18.6%提高至20.1%。历史数据上看,每当库存比率在该水平之时,每公吨原棕油价格将在2200至2400令吉之间徘徊。

兴业决定将原棕油价格预测,从2600令吉下调至2400令吉。

原棕油价格调整,种植股盈利预测无可避免遭下砍,兴业将怡保种植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植组)及吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植组)盈利下调。怡保种植下砍22至23%,吉隆坡甲洞则调低5至8%。

 

https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2242778.html

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