Highlights

Trading With A View

Author: tradeview   |   Latest post: Tue, 26 May 2020, 2:52 PM

 

(Tradeview 2020) Historic Pandemic Glove Rally - Riverstone Holdings Ltd (AP04) Continue Flying Under The Radar

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Tue, 26 May 2020, 2:52 PM


Riverstone posts 24% rise in 1Q earnings to S$10.8 mil on higher ...

Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :

Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/
or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

__________________________________________________________

Long Term Value Pick 2020 : Riverstone Holdings Ltd. (Fair Value SGD $ 2.00) 

Many have already been covering glove and related topics. Some writers are very bullish, some are arguing it is highly overvalued and pending a crash. However, this wont be my topic today. I would leave it to others to argue the case of Hartalega, Topglove, Kossan, Supermax or Comfort.

Today, I would just like to focus on Riverstone Holdings Ltd. Even as we speak, Riverstone has broke my initial fair value of SGD $ 2.00. It is now surging towards $2.20. 




Many have wrote to me, thanking me for highlighting Riverstone. Indeed, I was among the first to highlight Riverstone many months back when it was trading between SGD 80-95 sens range. But the person investors should be thanking is the professional management under the stewardship of the chairman, Mr. Wong. 

Now the questions now appeared to be focused towards asking me anxiously whether I will revise upwards my target price / fair value. This is what happens when a share price is surging in a relief rally. As the stock keep making new highs, investors who are in the money (profiting) whether 20% up / 50% up / 100% up, taking profit seems to be a problem for most investors. 

Taking profit and cutting loss are two of the hardest things to do or master for investors. This is especially true for new investors. So in such situation what is my advice?

Be ruthless in cutting losses, be patient when taking profit 

One must learn how to sit on profits. This is provided the company is a good company and the results justify so. A multi-bagger means a share or company that can increase in value multiple folds. Those who have invested in such companies know it is very hard to come by and find a gem like that. When you do come across and find one like this, you should hold on until there is a fundamental or structural change to the company. 

For us Riverstone fulfils our criteria of a Long Term Value Pick, hence when we called the shares, it wasn't to invest short term but rather to hold it for some time. Of course, when we first spotted Riverstone, the Covid-19 was even declared a pandemic by WHO yet. Fast forward till today, globally the death toll is fast reaching 350k and confirmed cases hit 5.5 million. This is a pandemic of unrivalled scale in recent times hence, under extraordinary circumstances, this sector has performed extraordinarily defying most expectations. I have seen the results of Hartalega, Kossan, Supermax which was announced recently. I will use the announced results (YoY) as roughy guide to show you the strength of Riverstone. 


1. Supermax - Revenue Grew 23% & Net Profit Grew 105%

2. Riverstone - Revenue Grew 16% & Net Profit Grew 54%

3. Hartalega - Revenue Grew 14% & Net Profit Grew 27% 

4. Kossan - Revenue Grew 9% & Net Profit Grew 10%

5. Topglove - awaiting results 

However, I know the true value of Riverstone does not ride only on the industry tailwind but it the management value, philosophy and vision. I can assure you, Riverstone did well not because of pandemic alone that happen to came along. It was very well managed company that was never in most investors radar as it is a humble, low profile, hardworking under the radar company. If you look at the chart below, this is not a company that did well based on stroke of luck / pandemic hitting every alternate years, otherwise the chart will show fluctuation points. The chart can show you that it has been always growing and performing steadily.





There are many factors why we like Riverstone as explained in our earlier article. For those who missed it, you can read it here :

http://www.tradeview.my/2020/05/tradeview-2020-long-term-value-pick-2.html


Whilst I set my initial fair value for Riverstone to be $2.00, I noticed CGS-CIMB has increased the TP to $2.50, DBS TP is %2.20, and UOB Kay Hian TP is $2.15. For now, I will not amend my FV until I can see the next quarterly results in early /mid August 2020. I can only say this to those who want my view on Riverstone, to me, Riverstone is a multi bagger and long term stock hence I will continue to hold. That's my personal opinion. For those who are happy with profits, just take it and be happy with your winnings. 

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/


Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 


Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 




  Erudite likes this.
 
tradeview A note or error to point out - after publishing our article, we noticed UOB Kay Hian has revised the TP of Riverstone upwards by 18% to $2.53. TQ
26/05/2020 5:08 PM
Erudite Tqvm. Masuk $1.60, still holding
26/05/2020 5:12 PM
mirilang another glove stock UG HEALTHCARE 41A ONLY $S0.37
26/05/2020 7:04 PM

(Tradeview 2020) - 2 Months Later, "Cash Is King", Time to Sell?

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Wed, 20 May 2020, 3:54 PM





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________

Before, I get into the details, a quick refresher. On 24th March 2020, I posted this article "Cash Is King, Time To Deploy?". It was one of the articles that received wide attention. For those who missed it, the link attached as below :



In the article I wrote at length about the meaning of " Cash Is King", importance of having "dry powder" / "war chest" so it can be used at time of needs. 5 days earlier, I wrote about - Recession is finally here? Or is it an Opportunity of A Lifetime? For those who missed it, the link attached as below :



Now 2 months later, on 20th May, the picture is entirely different from back then. I am sure most people can see from the charts below that the market within this 2 months has undergone an intense V-shaped rebound. 






There are many reasons as to why this has happened but today I would like to just keep this article short and focus on showing you all the outcome since 2 months back when we deployed our cash reserves and make big investments into the stocks of our choice. In between, we added stocks along the way. Similarly, we also called to sell on strength. This list is the same as the one we shared in our public articles to everyone. (Feel free to cross check against our articles above as we are honest & transparent to all)

We previously shared the following stocks as our favorite as at 24th March 2020 vs the price today 20th May :

1. CCK - RM 0.34 vs RM 0.51 (50% Gain)

2. OCK - RM 0.38 vs RM 0.56 (47% Gain)

3. RCE Capital - RM 1.46 vs RM 1.85 (27% Gain)

4. DKSH - RM 1.92 vs RM 2.60 (35% Gain)

5. Riverstone Holdings Ltd (Singapore listed) - $ 0.80 vs $ 1.76 (120% Gain)

6. Pintaras Jaya - RM 2.25 vs RM 2.77 (23% Gain)

7. GCB - RM 1.90 vs RM 2.75 (42% Gain)

8. MFCB - RM 3.67 vs RM 5.95 (62% Gain)

9. Scicom - RM 0.605 vs RM 1 (65% Gain)

10. RHB Bank - RM 4.94 vs RM 4.76 (-4% Loss)

11. Pentamaster - RM 2.83 vs RM 4.43 (56% Gain)

12. Public Bank - RM 15.24 vs RM 15.42 (1% Gain)

13. QL Resources - RM 6.97 vs RM 8.48 (22% Gain)


Our total gains of +42% exceeds KLCI rebound of +17%. 

**Please note our gains measured excludes dividend gain, and some stocks we bought at lower price / average down, some stocks we have sold. Some we are still holding. Our subscribers would know.




The purpose of our writing is not to brag but to show proof of our investment philosophy "investment based on fundamentals will give you the sufficient confidence to deploy cash to invest during the worst of a crisis."  Now, based on various reasons that we have shared over the course of our writing, we feel this is a very good time to realise our gains. Of course, many would have their own opinion and views. We may not be necessarily right simply because if indeed a vaccine is found, the market will rally further. If the Government extends the ban on short selling and margin call, the market will continue moving upwards. If US continues stimulus packages in tandem with global Central Banks, there may still be legs to this rebound rally. 

However, it is our view as a Fundamentalist and value investor that the current market has moved to a point whereby all earlier negatives priced in the share drop have been cancelled out in the share rally. Yet, the negatives in the economy remains and fundamentals of the companies' are not reflected sufficiently in its share price. 

We think there will be protracted period required for economic recovery and we think the commercialisation of vaccine will take longer than 9 months. Therefore, we would like to sell on strength, realise the gains and increase our cash holdings once again to above 50-60% level. That way, in the event the market sells off again, we have enough cash to reenter the market. For shares that we intend to continue holding long term for the dividend yield and growth are like Oriental Holdings Bhd. and Riverstone Holdings Ltd. These companies are the kind I would say multi-bagger, value stocks and most importantly, holding such investments, I can sleep well at night. I like this saying during a rally. It's by Jesse Livermore - "The top is never in sight when the vision is vitiated by hope"




Do stay tune for our next write up on "Principles of Investing - Rule 4 :  "Be Cynical, Be Sceptical & Avoid Tips"

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 



20 Inspirational Ray Dalio Quotes | Quotes | TraderLion






  Be the first to like this.
 

(Tradeview 2020) Why is KLCI Bursa Stock Exchange Trading At Record High Volume?

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sat, 16 May 2020, 2:40 PM




Dear fellow readers,  

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/
or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

__________________________________________________________

These are amongst the many questions that I received from my readers :

1. Why is the KLCI stock exchange making new record high in terms of trading volume? 
2. Who are trading and who are the net buyers? 
3. Are we in a bull market? 
4. What should we do? 

I will attempt to give a reasonable explanation and answer to all of the above questions.  Data and numbers will give us the answer we are looking for should we make a reasonable inference and hypothesis from it. Have a look at the data below :

15 May 2020 : Volume 9.3 billion, Value RM 3.9 billion



14 May 2020 : Volume 7 billion, Value RM 4.1 billion



13 May 2020 : Volume 9.7 billion, Value RM 5.2 billion


After making a record high volume and value on Wednesday, 13 May 2020, the market once again return to a high volume and value on Friday, 15 May 2020. The last time the stock exchange hit such high volume and value would be back in August 2014. At that point, KLCI was making fresh record high and KLCI reached 1892 points. Where are we today? We are at 1403 as of Friday. 

If you look at the volume from 13th May to 15th May, the volume fluctuate from 9.6 billion to 7 billion then back to 9.3 billion. But what is most interesting is the value. The value has been diminishing from RM5.2 billion to RM3.9 billion. This is despite the KLCI index closing at higher 1403 points on Friday compared to 1397 points on Wednesday.

Logically, if your trading volume rises, your trading value should rise as well not fall. This shows the trades have moved from high value stocks to low value stocks. Or in layman terms, from first liners to third liners. In such situations, it would only mean one thing, funds are less active buyers (especially foreign funds) and retailers have taken over as net buyer. Well, I am sure some of the readers may not agree with me. Some may argue I am just making a general assumption. Thankfully, I have facts to show the data : 





This is from April 2020 statistics :




From both data above, it shows local retailers have overtaken the Bursa KLCI stock exchange as the largest participants in the market in terms of value and volume traded. What is even more interesting, foreign funds have been selling non-stop, local institutions appear to be playing a supporting role (support the market) BUT retailers are net buyers.

My question to all now, is this not a dangerous signal? Are retailers outwitting local funds, foreign funds and understand the market better than them in terms of investing in the share market? Why are Foreign funds selling endlessly, local funds are merely supporting and retailers buying non-stop? 



Based on our findings and research, we have come to the following conclusion on why KLCI Bursa is hitting record high volume. 

1. The record low interest rate environment following BNM rate cut to 2%

This has spurred retailers to move their savings / fixed deposit to equities market in search of higher returns. We saw the 12 months Fixed Deposit rate by Public bank is currently 2%. As a saver, many would not want to put their savings in the FD for a meagre 2% return and  rather move the funds into equities which may give 4-5% dividend yield. With KLCI having beaten down badly in 2020, many think buying low is safe as value has emerged from stocks which would ordinarily be expensive in terms of valuation to consider a good investment. 

Risk: However, I believe this batch of investors of prudent fundamental investors are the minority. Many punters or inexperience investors who are speculating in penny stocks with poor earnings & track record (ex - Ageson, Ho Wah Genting etc)






2. 6 months loan moratorium by BNM & I-Lestari EPF Scheme 

The BNM policy's objective was to alleviate individuals and businesses from lack of income due to Covid-19 and MCO lockdown. With the 6 months window of breathing space, individuals and businesses has no loan repayment obligations to be made. This cause the surge in liquidity / money supply into the market for disposable use or investment purposes. We do not believe that BNM's purpose of doing so is to encourage businesses & retailers to use the money which would otherwise be used for loans repayment to speculate in the share market. Additional withdrawal of EPF funds is for the people to get through MCO and potential unemployment. The additional funds was not supposed to be used for the share market. However, this is the byproduct or side effect of the economic policies when the M2 increase in the economy as a whole. 

Risk: This is akin to using 6 months of borrowed money to speculate / invest in the share market. Should the market plunge again, those who are caught will lose money and face even greater challenge in repaying their loan obligations. Future savings in EPF for old age will also dwindle.

3. FOMO - Fear Of Missing Out

This issue is the same globally. When the market went through sharp rebound due to the large stimulus package by US Fed and Central Banks around the world to mitigate against the impact of Covid-19, the share market started to rebound. Investors who was worried about missing out this long awaited recession quickly set up trading accounts and rush into the market. This is like a stampede, where people are charging ahead in herd mentality without any sense of rationality moving with the flow. It is a vicious cycle. This stampede will only result in one outcome - blood. Speculative mania are signals of irrational exuberance which in effect are warning signs to all of us.   

Risk: What happen when the music stops? I think you all know the answer to that
5. Extended Duration of MCO Lockdown And Lack of Income


The extended period of lockdown imposed by the government which was almost 8 weeks long meant many people were sitting home doing nothing. Businessman could not run their business. Employees would have more free time compared to having a fixed hour day job.  Like many who have picked up cooking or baking as a healthy pastime, the time on hand allowed people to explore the possibilities of the share market. Additionally, the lack or fall in income has resulted in businessman and those affected to speculate in the share market hoping to make money to cover for shortfall and daily expenses.

Risk: Once the lockdown is over and all sectors are running, people would return to their daily jobs and have less time for the share market. This would result in reduction in participation in the market consequently downtrend. 

6. Closure Of Casino, 4D Betting House and Various Vice-Businesses


The closure of the above mentioned premises means there are absolutely no opportunity to gamble. This consequently resulted the funds from this segment of the economy to flow into the share market. This in effect has turned the share market into a legal gambling arena. After all, punting and speculating in the share market based on hearsay and tips are no different from gambling right?

Risk: This segment of money would eventually flow out as well once things are back to normal

7. Proliferation of Syndicates, Misleading Articles and Fake News 

Due to the interest in the share market, we have observed a spike in nonsense promotional articles by unknown authors, rise in market cyber troopers / keyboard warriors, fake deals and news announcements by listed companies with poor track record and earnings. All for the purpose of pushing the share price of the stock and manipulating the market via pump and dump operations. Even syndicates appears so obviously unlike before, where it was more subtle. 

Risk: Many inexperience and new investors who are in the market will unknowingly  suffer substantial losses. In fact, when you look at August 2014 KLCI record high volume, many were penny stocks being played up. Many names are no longer to be seen today such as Sumatec, PDZ, it looks grossly similar to what it is today.  






8. Regulators Have Halted Short Selling and Margin Call


To be very frank, this is one of the decisions we are adamantly against. Free market forces are there for a reason. It is to ensure equilibrium exist. Having short selling will allow the market to function more efficiently and in fact reduce the ability of syndicates to conduct pump and dump operations. When the market is one way, not both ways, the tendency for it to go higher is there. However, if there are huge opposing force (short sellers), they function to clear the market of its inefficiencies hence resulting in a more reasonable and less speculative market. Also, without the fear of being forced into margin call, those who are using margin facilities will not worry and when the market continues upwards trend, their margin facility grows allowing them to push more funds into the same upwards direction without fear of the repercussion of margin call. That is extremely unhealthy.

Risk: Once short selling and margin call is reintroduce, the impact will be greater than before as the market is filled with greater inefficiency waiting to be corrected. 


Our Advice To Readers :

We are not suggesting all to stay away from investing in the market. We are also not saying there is no value stocks to invest. In fact, there are many good companies with good dividend yield and strong track record worth our consideration should we are prepared to hold for the long term horizon. This is also the best opportunity to build a portfolio of  stocks with recurring dividends / income. These are many blue chip names which we are familiar with be it banks, consumer sectors, insurers and what not which are too expensive in the past to invest. Today, value has emerged for collection. Sadly these are not the stocks being invested by retailers.

On the contrary, it is the lousy speculative stocks with poor track record that is hogging the limelight today. Thematic plays have taken over news flows and fake misleading postings by syndicates are also being widely circulated and shared across platforms It has even come to a point where dubious MOU and deals are being announced by companies to Bursa. There was 1 day last week, I remembered reading 3 separate listed companies venturing into healthcare PPE / Covid testing kits business. In just 1 day. And what was common between these 3 companies? None of them had good track record, experience or ability to be in this field. 

I am not bothered if funds or syndicates lose money. What pains me are ordinary people and retailers who are inexperience and new in investing losing their hard earned money in this extraordinarily trying times. Do be careful and not let greed take over your sense of rationale.



_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/


Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 


Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 






  12 people like this.
 
zhangliang V true indeed!
16/05/2020 4:28 PM
jmstar Very good piece of advise given with sincerity and honesty
16/05/2020 5:38 PM
megat36 Thank you sir..with people keep pumping money, i wonder should i wait for their bubble to burst before i start collecting long term stock.being eyeing your stock recommendation.
16/05/2020 5:53 PM
Erudite Gr8 write up. Tqvm
16/05/2020 7:32 PM
ahbah Malacca Securities Sdn Bhd said firm trading interest continues to linger within the healthcare sector, which may see gains extending over the foreseeable future.


"A breakout above the 1,400 psychological level may see the key index to re-test the 1,430 level. Downside risk remains pegged at the 1,360 level," it said in a note.
16/05/2020 9:14 PM
henry888 An alert to investors in particular newbie. 'beware of high risks in share trading and enter at your own risk'.
17/05/2020 6:47 AM
stockraider High volume means what, u ask yourself ??
It mean, there are alot of interest in stocks mah...!!

Then u ask yourself is stock price really overvalue leh ??
Some are like gloves stocks but majority are not loh...!!

Does the stock u buy got margin of safety, can it survive if business continue be poor for sometime? How about its balance sheet got huge borrowing or is it supported by fair liquid cash leh ??

Remember be prepare to invest for longer term about 3 years mah...!!
17/05/2020 7:14 AM
Cnlim The operators are thankful to new fools in the market people have being told to hold for 3 years maybe the operators runners are trying to con new investors haha for commission earn a living
17/05/2020 8:11 AM
Cnlim If you say it is a trading market fair n square play with the operators must know how to cut loss happy trading on Monday
17/05/2020 8:15 AM
Felicity very true indeed
17/05/2020 8:16 AM
stockraider If u bought sapnrg 6.5 sen very cheap hold for 3 years u r not worry mah..!!

Be prepare for few 100% gain over 3 years loh...!!

Posted by Cnlim > May 17, 2020 8:11 AM | Report Abuse

The operators are thankful to new fools in the market people have being told to hold for 3 years maybe the operators runners are trying to con new investors haha for commission earn a living
17/05/2020 8:30 AM
Erudite Sapura is exactly the kind of stock tt the author is advising retailers 2 not buy. Y u promoting sapura here? Take it somewhere else.
17/05/2020 9:49 AM
henry888 ha..ha...everyone has the motive of writing or involving in this forum. We can also inclined to think that fund manager from unit trusts are asking the investors be better to place it with trust fund managed by highly professional manager. For me no way as the administration fee is very high for buy and sell.
17/05/2020 9:53 AM
TzuYin84 So since there's tonnes of newbies (but very2 rich) money flowing into the market, they'll certainly choose their stocks based on rumors n news without proper TA n FA knowledge. Hence, we must do the same loh to benefit from the situation! My new trading strategy ho ho ho
17/05/2020 10:44 AM
goldenluck16 Reaching the 9 billion volume shows that many Ah 2, Ah 9 Ah Li are in the market. Be prepared for further wild swings among the penny stocks manipulated by the syndicates. Still got money to be made anyway but have to be alert . Happy investing and speculating.
17/05/2020 12:35 PM
henry888 Volume big is logic because all are penny stocks.
17/05/2020 12:40 PM
stockraider sapnrg is exactly the stock u can get very rich mah...!!


Posted by Erudite > May 17, 2020 9:49 AM | Report Abuse

Sapura is exactly the kind of stock tt the author is advising retailers 2 not buy. Y u promoting sapura here? Take it somewhere else.
17/05/2020 12:50 PM
DRwarrant Let it be....after all it's free market what .
Don't expect BlueChip@cheat to give you 100 - 200 % gains like cheap warrants with in days but BlueCheat@Chip will give you merely chickenfeed@Peanut 5 % take months if not years .

#KEEPonGRABBING$$$$$ !
17/05/2020 1:36 PM
limko1 do you seriously think these newbies don't know what they are doing? they are speculating or more correctly gambling. If people can make 20 -50% return in a few days, do they want to wait for months or years? In fact, many so called bluechip stocks are also penny stocks now. Cheat by the market or by the IB?
17/05/2020 2:00 PM
apolloang stockists do this kinda volume on sumatec in 2014
17/05/2020 2:53 PM
williamh I noted one of the stock moving around 20 to 30 cents shots up to 1.20 just a few days,many will get caught for sure
17/05/2020 4:48 PM
williamh During the technology bubble time one of the company’s producing lubricant can shot up to 70,and you can’t find it today
17/05/2020 4:51 PM
Barry5007 I follow some advise from tradeview and other sites and so far doing ok, thanks
17/05/2020 6:21 PM
moregain You have the same thoughts as me. Thanks for reminding. Better put our feet firmly on the ground.
17/05/2020 7:15 PM
ahbah I think our Bursa got high vol is bcos our Bursa is oredi infected with the deadly FOMO disease which cannot be cured by vaccine !
17/05/2020 7:34 PM
zhangliang Ahbah, well said. Barry5007, ditto.
17/05/2020 7:45 PM
ahbah This deadly FOMO disease can spread very easily among the mkt players even we all stay at home !

I am most worried I oredi got infected this FOMO disease which can cause us to become insane !
17/05/2020 9:29 PM
MrRightTiming Bursa high volume also wrong, low volume also wrong, sideways also wrong. Short selling when market is bear aggravated selling in one way also, that time didn't say short selling is wrong...whatever happen also always got doubts means how to make money in the market...haha. The only thing is to learn how to be strategic in the opportunities. If market volume is high and short selling is banned just make use of it in the right way. Why complain so much retailer kena tipu or become mangsa. That one is because they greedy and use wrong tactics le. Market where got so nice for naive people.
17/05/2020 11:30 PM
DRwarrant Watch Out Warrants Below 3 sen for RAYA Jackpot 100 - 200 %
#The Cheaper the Warrants >> the Higher the % GAIN $$$$$

## 2020 SUPER BULL MARKET NOW ON GOINGG !
18/05/2020 6:18 AM

(Tradeview 2020) Long Term Value Pick 2 - Riverstone Holdings Ltd (AP04) Greatness Lies in Humble Roots

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Mon, 11 May 2020, 9:20 PM


Medical Nitrile Examination Gloves Manufacturer,Cleanroom Bags ...Å
 

Dear fellow readers, 

This is my Long Term Value Pick for 2020. 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/
or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
 
__________________________________________________________
 
 
Riverstone posts 24% rise in 1Q earnings to S$10.8 mil on higher ...

Long Term Value Pick 2020 : Riverstone Holdings Ltd. (Fair Value SGD $ 2.00) 
 
We primarily invest our funds in KLSE stocks. However, over the years, we have been investing across markets globally and have found some good investments in foreign markets. The reason for this is because the KLSE have been downtrending over the years and lack of catalyst and foreign participation. Whilst most of our investment are still primarily in Malaysia, it is good to have investments abroad to provide some hedge from domestic risk as well.  

Today, I would like to talk about Riverstone Holdings Ltd. I am sure everyone has heard about the "4 Kings" of the glove sector in Malaysia, namely Hartalega, Topglove, Kossan and Supermax. The smaller or niche players in the sector includes Comfort, Rubberex, Careplus and Adventa (has sold Aspion to Topglove). These are the listed names. There are also others which are not listed with some market presence such as YTY and WRP. So how about Riverstone? Well, this  company must be one of the most low profile, high quality and huge potential that we had the opportunity of discovering. Occasionally, there are hidden gems waiting to be discovered by those who look further. Riverstone is one of them and it is listed across the causeway - SGX. 
 
 

 


1. Humble Beginnings

Riverstone Holdings Ltd was listed in SGX in 2006 at the price of SGD $0.13. Today it reached a high of $1.48 over the course 15 years. This is a capital gain of 11.38x (excluding dividend gains). This is nothing short of an amazing growth and more importantly, this Malaysian owned glove company with a market capital of SGD $1.07 Billion (RM 3.3 Billion) is not even listed in Malaysia. 

Today, when people talk about the glove sector, Malaysians are very proud because Malaysia controls almost 65% of the world market share. However, what people do not see are the hardship and challenges that the glove makers overcome to become world leaders today. Riverstone is a story of grit, perseverance and innovation. Mr Wong Teek Son, the Chairman and founder of the company comes from humble beginnings. His family were farmers and he worked his way through school and graduated from University Malaya with a Bachelor of Science. 

Mr Wong did not immediately start his own business right out of school. In fact, it was never part of his plan. The company was founded in the midst of an economic crisis when the company he worked for closed down and he was able to use their production lines. At the time, competition in the industry, was intense. There were at least 300 glove factories in Malaysia and many could not survive resulting in closure. Together with partner Lee Wai Keong, he formed Riverstone Resources to focus on the manufacture of cleanroom natural rubber and nitrile gloves using advanced production techniques.
 
 
 
2. Growth, Innovation and Expansion
 
Since 1994, Riverstone Resources has pioneered the manufacture of gloves using nitrile latex in Malaysia, introduced online glove chlorination technology and developed nitrile finger cots using its own proprietary production technique. The company is a market leader in cleanroom gloves and over the years have ventured into medical gloves as well. To insulate revenues, Riverstone diversified into healthcare gloves. While cleanroom gloves command better margins, demand for healthcare gloves is more resilient. Pharmacies, hospitals and clinics continue to use gloves even in a downturn, said Mr Wong in an interview with Singapore The Straits Times in 2016. True to his vision, with Covid-19 pandemic sweeping across the world, Riverstone has been playing a key role in the world supply of medical gloves. 95% of all products manufactured by the company is for the export market. The major clients of Riverstone includes Western Digital, Intel, Seagate, Cardinal Health amongst others. 

In addition, the company has grew from just a manufacturing facility in Rawang, it has now total of 5 facilities located in Taiping, Thailand, and Wu Xi, China. From 2016 where the annual production capacity was 6.2 billion gloves per annum, with the latest completion of the healthcare glove facilty in Taiping (Eco Medi Glove), the company has reached an annual capacity of 10 billion gloves. Their products are also wide ranging. Apart from the staple products like Clean Room gloves, Sterilize gloves and Medical gloves, there are also consumables such as Cleanroom Fingercots, Packaging Bags, Face Masks, Cleanroom Wipers (Oem) and other Disposable Products. 

We had the opportunity to visit the Taiping facility. What impressed us most is the state of the art automation, efficiency and cleanliness of the the manufacturing facility. In addition, the company is extremely serious in ensuring the welfare of the employees / workers taken care of. The workers hostel is also very well built. From our understanding, the company complies with Europe's high standard on workers rights protection down to even a plug placement location is taken into consideration.   


3. Outstanding Financials and Balance Sheet (Updated with Results of Q1 2020)

Besides a good growth story, what we like most compared to other glove makers is the strong financial numbers and balance sheet of Riverstone Holdings Ltd. In short, some companies which are growing and doing well, they take on debts to fund their growth. For Riverstone, the company utilises internal funds and reinvest profits hence has minimal borrowings despite the ongoing expansion over the past few years. It is a high growth net cash company. This is what is most valuable to us as it allows us to have peaceful sleep at night without worrying about high gearing ratio. Have a look at the numbers below :



 
Riverstone has cash and equivalent of RM 130 million and borrowings of RM 13 million, which means it is net cash of RM117 million. Debt to equity is only 0.016. In addition, the cashflow from operations is close to RM160 million. If you look at the topline growth, it is growing at CAGR of 15.3%. Whilst it is true net profit and dividend growth is minimal over the past few years, this has to do with the company expanding capacity using internal funds instead of leveraging up on debts. Furthermore, if you compare to other of Malaysia's "4 Kings" glove makers, Riverstone has one of the best average profit margin of 13.5% along the likes of Hartalega compared to Topglove around 9.3%, Kossan 9.6% and Supermax 8.2%.   
 
 
 
 

If you look at the ROE, it is 16.52%, and the current ratio is impressive at 3.1x.  Riverstone also consistently declared dividend at least for the past 10 years which shows the companies' willingness to share profit with shareholders despite having to reinvest profits for expansion. Even so, the company was able to maintain a dividend yield of at least 2+%, As I have shared before, one of the most important factors to consider when investing is to study the dividend growth model as that is the way to assess whether the company is sharing profits with the shareholders. 

At today's price of SGD$1.45, it is the highest level since IPO and it broke out from the previous of SGD $ 1.28. Please note that when we first shared the stock with our readers in previous articles, Riverstone was only trading at 20x PER around SGD 87 sens. If we summarise the financial numbers, it can be read as below based on trailing quarters :


PER = 25x 
Dividend Yield = 1.91%
NTA = SGD 35 sens
Beta = 0.64
Net Cash = RM 117 million
ROE = 16.52%
Earnings Growth = 6.6%

 

However, after releasing the article today, only then I found out Riverstone released their Q1 2020 voluntary results announcement. 

 

 


The results above speaks for itself. Revenue grew YoY by 16% to RM 279 million, net profit by 54% amounting to RM47 million. If converted to EPS, it is around SGD $ 0.20. Assuming we annualised this by 4 Quarters, it is $0.80 for full year. At current price of $1.45, it is only trading at 18x. At 25x PER, Riverstone fair value should be worth SGD $2.00.

 


4. Future & Continuous Growth Potential  

 


From the shareholding above, the top 20 largest shareholders controls up to 94% of the shares. Whilst it fulfill the public float requirement with about 33%, it is still rather low liquidity. 

However, this stock is clearly a beneficiary of Covid-19 pandemic and the every changing landscape of healthcare, hygiene and sanitisation. We believe that Riverstone will only continue to grow and potential is limitless with new markets and demand globally. Even if the demand may normalise once a vaccine is found, the behavioural change is set in motion just as how SARS pandemic brought about different approach when it comes to PPE and healthcare professionals in handling patients.

Furthermore, the company is a market leader in Cleanroom glove segment for semiconductors, technology and relevant ancillary sectors. In the event a vaccine is found and demand for medical gloves reduces, the demand pick up from the semiconductor and technology sector will still lead the way and further benefit the company's growth

 

Kossan Rubber Industries Berhad - Home | FacebookHartalega | LinkedIn
SUPERMAX CORP BHD ] - Golden Chance After Huge Plunge ??? - J4 ...            Top Glove Q2 profit up 9.3%, expects strong quarters ahead


This is a very unique company. It is a Malaysia company with MNC global clients. It is not known as among the "4 Kings" of glove makers in Malaysia although it was founded in Malaysia and it should rightfully be in the "4 Kings".  If not for it being listed in SGX, more Malaysian investors would know about the company and hence more Malaysian institutional funds would invest in the company. Riverstone in terms of production capacity is not as big as Hartalega, Topglove, Kossan or Supermax, the net profit is actually higher than Supermax. In addition, Supermax has a market cap of RM 4 billion at 38x PER multiples, if we were to apply the same valuation to Riverstone, it would easily exceed Supermax to hit almost RM 5 billion in market cap.    

 

5. Value Growth Investment 

Therefore, although Riverstone has broken out and hit a historic high in view of upcoming QR and ex-dividend date, our long term fair valuation for is SGD $2.00 based on the back of EPS of SGD $ 8 sens at 25x future PER for FY21/22. This is excluding the positive of their cash holdings, consistent dividend, new expansion of manufacturing facility with 92% utilization rate and positive increase of 20% in demand due to Covid-19. This is our prudent estimation for a net cash high expansionary company. For those who are worried the price is too high, you can always put in your watchlist and collect on weakness. We called a buy on this stock last year end 2019 and added more during the recent selldown in March 2020.

 
The difference from other companies, the founder is still involved in day to day operations. On top of that, he is part of R&D due to his knowledge in chemistry. Being hands on allowed the company to do well as all nitty gritty of the daily operations are taken into account when formulating business strategies. We like the company just as much as we like the founder who is humble, honest, hardworking and knowledgeable. For those who likes such a company and would want some overseas investment exposure, one can consider Riverstone Holdings Ltd. as your long term value pick. We are personally invested and we believe this company will keep growing. This is a stock which I want to and am happy to own a small part of the business for a long time to come. 

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101

Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/

Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 

Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

Food for thought: 


peter lynch quotes - Trade Brains

 

 

 

  Erudite likes this.
 
zhangliang Wow, riverstone is now $1.81
16/05/2020 4:33 PM
patrick8 Good article to share.
16/05/2020 5:56 PM
Erudite Wasted I din read tis article sooner. Shud hv bought Riverstone instead
17/05/2020 9:51 AM
joey should buy … ……. good for long term
17/05/2020 10:01 AM
zhangliang Riverstone hit $2 today
26/05/2020 10:19 AM

(Tradeview 2020) Long Term Value Pick - Oriental Holdings Bhd. (4006) A Gift For The Next Generation

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Wed, 6 May 2020, 11:23 AM


 

Dear fellow readers, 

 


This is my Long Term Value Pick for 2020. 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/
or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

 

 
__________________________________________________________
 


Long Term Value Pick 2020 : Oriental Holdings Bhd. (Fair Value RM 8) 
 
As you all know, the team and myself have been writing for quite some time and over the years have accumulated a published track record for all to cross check / verify. There are some stock picks much more successful than others and have stood the test of time. These stocks are those I would say to buy and leave for your children / grandchildren. For example, I have called to buy QL Resources back in 2015 at RM2.40, Magni Tech in end 2015 at RM4.49 (before 1:3 Bonus Issue & 1:2 Stock Split), CCK in early 2016 at RM0.645 (before 1:2 Bonus Issue & 1:2 Stock Split) and Allianz in early 2017 at RM10.80 amongst many others. For ease of reference, I call it "Long Term Value Pick". 

 

Recently, as it was the birthday of my child, I would like to share with you all a company that I would invest and leave for her as a gift. This kind of long term investment is something that transcends generations and carries my investment philosophy through the passage of time. More importantly, I hope through this investment she can share a bond with me and understand the thoughts I have as I was writing about this fabled company. 

 

 

 

 

 



1. History & Background

When it comes to Penang, the number of legendary and successful individuals are countless. The list consist of many brilliant Malaysians who have accomplished great things locally and globally. It includes names like Lee Chong Wei, Nicol David, Tun Lim Chong Eu, Jimmy Choo, Tan Hock Eng and of course Tan Sri Loh Boon Siew. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have you all heard of Boon Siew Honda? Well Tan Sri Loh Boon Siew was the man who was synonymous with Honda so much so people call him "Mr. Honda". He was the man who brought in Honda to Malaysia and Southeast Asia as the sole distributor and grew it to what it is. The founder, Soichiro Honda had amazing relationship with Tan Sri Loh who grew their business empire together for many years. Until today, even after the passing of late Tan Sri Loh, Honda Motors Co. Ltd still hold significant share in Oriental and even have a board representative. 

Tan Sri Loh was revered and respected by many because he was a poor immigrant who started from humble beginnings of repairing buses to building an empire and becoming probably the richest man Penang have ever seen. Oriental Holdings Bhd. is  owned by the low profile Loh family and is now in the hands of the 3rd generation Datuk Loh Kian Chung, Tan Sri Loh Boon Siew's grandson.

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
2. Sprawling Conglomerate Across Sectors
 
Oriental Holdings Bhd is one of the soundest and most established family owned conglomerate which is keeping on a strong legacy. Some of course would regard Oriental as "old money". It has a diversified business interest across plantation, property, hotel and resorts, automotive, healthcare, plastics, building materials and trading. It has large land banks and I would presume to be among the biggest landowner in Penang Island besides the state government, GLC and other institutions funds. Rumours has it that when Tan Sri Loh was in the car passing by a particular location in the later years, he asked his aide "that is a beautiful piece of land, I think we should find out the owner and potentially make an offer to acquire". The aide smiled and softly replied "but Tan Sri, the owner of that nice piece of land is you." This rumoured story shows 2 things to us, 1. Tan Sri has a good eye for investment and remain steadfast in his vision 2. He has such vast land holdings that he didn't recall that he was actually the rightful owner. 
 
Moving on, for the core business segments, outside of Malaysia, Oriental has large investments overseas. For plantation, their biggest investment is in Bangka Island and Sumatra Indonesia with close to 80,000 Hectare and 4 palm oil mills. For hotel and resorts, they have 10 investments in UK, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand combined. For automotive, the government engaged hostile takeover of Boon Siew Honda and gave the master distributorship of Honda to DRB Hicom (like how Toyota was taken from Inchcape to be given to UMW) many years ago, hence today, Boon Siew Honda and Kah Motors distributes Honda in Singapore, Brunei and have over 92 dealerships across Malaysia. They have dealership for Mitsubishi as well. For plastics, Teck See is the oldest plastics spare parts manufacturers. In addition, for Malacca, Oriental has the rights of reclamation in Klebang of almost 1125 acres (completed 85%) and a 300 bed medical healthcare hospital. 
 





3. Outstanding Financials and Balance Sheet

A nice story aside, Oriental Holdings Berhad has very sound financial numbers and balance sheet to weather the current economic crisis. It has after all done so for many years. When people mention Oriental, they think of it being a net cash - cash rich company. A simple overview below would suffice to exhibit their financial muscle in this trying times. 

 
 

Oriental has cash and equivalent of RM 3.8 billion and borrowings of RM 2 billion, which means it is net cash of RM1.8 billion. At current share price of RM5.03, the market capital of the company is RM3.1 billion. Effectively, the company net cash position is 0.58x. That is unbelievable. If the saying Cash is King, then it is especially apt at times like this. Some may be concern about the borrowings of RM 2 billion, well Oriental has managed to obtained predominantly extremely low interest Japanese loan for the purposes of business expansion. The low interest rate environment due to quantitative easing is perfect time to borrow funds and this is especially so where central brands around the world including Federal Reserves, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continue to  maintain low interest policies to stimulate economy. You can refer here :
 
 

If you look at the past 8 years chart, Oriental have been growing topline and bottom line continuously whilst maintaining a margin above 6%. From RM2.7 billion in revenue to a peak of RM6.4 billion before a recent dip in the 2019 financial year easing to RM5.2 billion. Even in a challenging time where the company was probably affected on all fronts such as trade war, low CPO price, dampened consumer spending sentiment, the company was still able to deliver RM 5.2 billion in revenue and profits of RM351 million. On top of that, Oriental has managed to deliver consistent dividend growth for the past 8 years from 9 sens to 40 sens per annum. This translates to 8% dividend yield at current share price. For financial year 2019, so far 12 sens have been declared awaiting the final dividend announcement in coming QR. One of the most important factors to consider when investing is to study the dividend growth model as that is the way to assess whether the company is sharing profits with the shareholders. 

 

 

 
 

At today's price of RM5.03, it is the lowest level since end 2012 which also signifies that this provides an opportunity for a good entry price. If we summarise the financial numbers, it can be read as below based on trailing quarters :

PER = 8.8x
Dividend Yield = 8%
NTA = RM10.75
PTBV = 0.47x
Beta = 0.7
Net Cash = RM 1.8 Billion / 0.58x of market capital
ROE = 5.26%

 

 


4. Potential Risk / Downside 

 

 

 

It is quite obvious Oriental suffered a bit of set back in terms of performance growth in financial year 2019. Whilst last year affected many companies especially a company like Oriental which is a conglomerate cutting across sectors, we believe it has been factored in the share price. In addition, Oriental has always been undervalued all these years probably due to the fact that institutional funds & investors prefer the company to be more aggressive in deploying capital for expansion. This can be seen from the weak ROE number. The public float is about 25% which is the bare minimum required by Bursa, so this indicates low liquidity. 

With Covid-19 causing demand destruction and affecting the economic landscape globally, we see Oriental being affected as well across all their industries. Automotive is still the biggest contributor to the group with Plantation coming in second. Hotel & resorts and investment properties are third and fourth respectively. We believe management is well aware of the economic repercussions from Covid-19 and will be affected in the next quarter as well due to their exposure in all sectors affected.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


5. Legacy Investment 

Conglomerates are usually valued lesser and unless they break into parts for separate listing in order to unlock value, it will always be trading at a discount. This is a consideration that one has to understand when investing in Oriental. Our long term fair valuation for Oriental Holdings Bhd is RM8 based on the back of EPS of 60 sens at 12x future PER for FY21/22. This is excluding the positive of their substantial cash holdings, net tangible asset, high dividend yield, near completion of their land reclamation in Malacca and positive contribution from their healthcare arm. This is our prudent estimation without taking into account of the growth of the other businesses within the group. 




Tan Sri Loh Boon Siew have built a sprawling business empire from rags to riches which has endured the toughest of time through economic upheavals, politics and personal family tragedies. Despite so, the second generation worked closely together and united, they ensured the family business was intact. When it came to the time to pass on the rein, the second generation did so with Datuk Loh Kian Chung emerging as the new third generation leader for this low profile family conglomerate. As we are a financial writer, we do not like to comment unnecessarily on non-business / financial matters.  

However, our humble view is that this company is unlike many other rich business dynasty where the second and third generations are openly flaunting their wealth on social media, boasting about the new toy or expensive jet setting lifestyle they enjoy whilst the society's B40 suffers economically. This family conglomerate have good moral values instilled in them and their offsprings from their founding patriarch. Business challenges and personal tragedy has held the family closely together to weather tough times together. It is a clear example that a united family do ensure wealth last beyond 3 generations. In our view, Oriental Holdings Bhd is an ideal vehicle of wealth preservation with capital growth. 

After all, those who who had acquired 1,000 Oriental shares at its initial public offering in 1964 would have 48,306 shares worth RM298,048 based on its share price of RM6.17 as at the end of FY2018. In addition, the shares would have earned a total gross dividend of RM228,801.02. The gross dividends received and appreciation in value work out to an average rate of return of 12.07% for each of the 55 years. (Source edgemarkets)

For those who likes a company with honest management, substantial land and cash holdings, a fundamental business with a strong legacy that has stood the test of time, one can consider Oriental Holdings Bhd. as your long term value pick. We are personally invested and we are rooting for this company to continue to do well. This is one stock I would invest and leave it as a legacy gift for my child.

 

 

________________________________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101

Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/

Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 

Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com

Food for thought: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labels: ORIENT
  5 people like this.
 
Erudite TQVM 4 tis highlight.
06/05/2020 1:07 PM
Alex™ ur buy price how much a?
06/05/2020 1:08 PM
Hafid Is a great company. Another Warren buffet type of company
06/05/2020 7:02 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" even at this price, it's very much a bargain

you should have to look beyond a quarter or two
06/05/2020 7:44 PM
zhangliang Gr8 long term stock. Agree wit Hafid and Fabien
07/05/2020 9:22 AM
valueinvestor Will be a good dividend stock if they are willing to continue with the generous dividend payout of 40 sen for last 2 years. On the downside, is the Co's inability to "monetize" to create value from the massive land bank especially in Penang. They bought a beautiful piece of land at Jalan Dang Wangi opp the Dang Wangi Police Station but use it as a car park since mid-1990s.
07/05/2020 11:37 AM
stockraider Just buy lah...veli veli veli good loh....!!
07/05/2020 11:37 AM
kongkenonn Good value
08/05/2020 7:18 AM
stockraider Buy lah dividend veli good loh...!!
08/05/2020 7:20 AM
Philip ( buy what you understand) It seems my wife is a far better investor than I am, but the reasons for her choosing to buy stocks confound me, though she definitely has her own ways of investing.

She bought PPHB at 45 cents post split, and recently she also bought Oriental at 4.82.

Her reasoning was very simple: she buy them because they are penangite companies run by first generation Penang Chinese. Cannot go wrong one!

You can guess by now where my wife is from.
08/05/2020 7:56 AM
mf China exports unexpectedly rise even as pandemic hits demand
08/05/2020 8:03 AM
paulthesotong Tradeview....huge reserves how come no bonus or stock splits??? Best of the best let 3G Loh privatise at 10 bucks!!!
08/05/2020 8:17 AM
Erudite Wow, its RM 5.60 high today!
08/05/2020 1:10 PM
Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" in times like this, you want to put your heard earned money with proven companies, such as Orient that have survived few generations, few economic crisis

of course, things can change in the future. but no one knows the future with much certainty

this company has shown to be resilient

end of day, it boils down to balance sheet strength
08/05/2020 3:54 PM
Erudite Ya, as Jim Cramer says “balance sheet, balance sheet balance sheet!”
17/05/2020 9:53 AM
gohku This is a super under value bluechip, which is cash rich with good dividend too.
17/05/2020 9:55 AM
Lewis Lee Beware of words from "cold eyes" recently also, this kind of company can be "value trap", if being under value for too long, the major shareholders might one day take it private by offering 10-20% above its suppressed market price !
17/05/2020 12:13 PM
apolloang if u bought topglove,harta,QL or myeg since listing,u no need that long time.in 1964 I even not born yet.....hehe
17/05/2020 12:17 PM
apolloang hwa tai in 1996-1997 1.00 become 200.00, lagi cepat…...hahaha
17/05/2020 12:18 PM
apolloang but anyway oriental is undervalued for a very long time
17/05/2020 12:19 PM

(Tradeview 2020) Principles of Investing - Rule 3 : "Diversification is the Best Defence"

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Mon, 20 Apr 2020, 9:00 PM





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :

Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________





KLCI rebounded strongly and broke 1400 to close at 1407 on Friday 17th April. KLCI reach a high of 1414, around 2%. This was quite surprising given how oil price WTI has fallen below USD 20 per barrel to US18+ and Brent retreated to USD 28+ per barrel. That is what the equities market is all about I supposed, irrational. If the market is always efficient, then there are no opportunities for investing and trading as the price will always be at an equilibrium. 



Now as we are fast approaching the end of April and wishfully the MCO, many seem to be quite bullish about the market or otherwise it is "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) that is pushing the market uptrend momentum. Of course some attribute to the fact that US is talking about slowly opening the economy again as they claim they are past their peak cases for Covid-19. Floods of good news in global markets are also abundant as touted by promoters of stocks across various telegram channels / groups. This is not the case for us. 

Maybe by nature, we are contrarian. I supposed most value investors or fundamentalist would be, given the current actual current market conditions. We genuinely believe artificial support of the market does not last and will not reflect the actual fundamental of the economy. Have a look at the picture above which to us a true oxymoron and ask yourself, "How can US market have the best weeks of gain since 1938 but at the same time, more than 16 millions have lost their jobs in the past 3 weeks? Something is wrong somewhere isn't it?"



We can have a debate endlessly on this topic without arriving anywhere. Believers of the bulls have totally forgot how the market was when it plunge all the way towards 1200 in March just few weeks ago. People are generally forgetful. If history teaches us anything, it always returns with a vengeance and strikes like a lightning bolt. So here comes, if you are torn and is uncertain or unsure with the market direction, what should you do? 

1. Risk on - enter the market and hope for the best (for market to continue rallying); or

2. Risk off - stay on sidelines and hope for the best (for market to plunge); or

3. Stay invested whilst holding sufficient cash to average down (best of both worlds)?

I am sure most of you would choose option 3.  So how do you execute your investment strategy if you choose option 3? In my view, you cannot do it without sufficient diversification. Risking everything and putting all in one basket is akin to gambling, not investing. So what in actual fact is diversification? Simple as it may sound, there are different extents of diversification. I will share with you all through a simple illustration with some of our stock picks. 



1. Diversification within same sector

Let me use the example of oil and gas. In 2019, the oil and gas companies were really roaring back to life with the likes of Uzma, Carimin, Serba Dinamik, Yinson, Hibiscus, Dayang, Perdana amongst others leading the way. Whoever that caught on the wave probably made close to 50-60% return within 1 year. Some exceed even that of 100% if they entered companies where notable investors has substantial position and highly promoted by investment banks or syndicates. Today as we know it, oil market has plunge ferociously and those who have existing position who did not take profit in 2019 would suffer the sell down in 2020. Those lucky enough to have exited quickly would have been able to protect their profit. 

So how do we diversify? Oil and gas sector is divided to upstream and downstream. There is the process of exploration & extraction, the process of refining and the process of retailing. In addition, there are the storage facilities, supply of equipment, maintenance of equipments, FSPO charters and others. So what I meant when it comes to diversification within the same sector means you should not put all your investment in one sector in one part of the the value chain. If you do choose to invest in oil and gas industry, you cannot throw all your money into Hibiscus which is primarily in exploration and extraction. When  the oil market is good, they will do well and hit above RM1 as in 2019, but when oil plunge, it dropped almost 80% of the value to 20+ sens. Hence, you should consider allocating your investments into different part of the value chain. An example, for us, we like put our investment in Yinson (FSPO charter), Dialog (storage facilities), Uzma (maintenance). 





2. Diversification Across Sectors

Now moving on, this is what we have always advocated and used often. We like to put our funds in different sectors and it actually helped us weather past crisis such as 1MDB, oil crisis, GST, Election, Brexit, Trump and today. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't mean we didn't lose money. In fact, even if we make losses, the losses are able to be carried by the winning investments. Let's not look too far, and put it simply for 2020, the stocks we have mentioned in previous articles.

We have funds in :

1. QL & CCK (poultry / essential retail), 
2. DKSH (Consumer), GCB (Chocolates grinder / commodities), 
3. RHB & Public Bank (Banking), 
4. Allianz (Insurance), 
5. Scicom & Pentamaster (Tech / E&E) 
6. MFCB (power plant & resources)
7. OCK (telecommunications) 
8. RCE Capital (Finance)

If you look at our list above, it is vastly different and it is definitely not in one single sector. From our list you cannot even tell which is our favourite sector. This is one of the reasons why conglomerates are usually strong in times of weakness because their exposure in various sectors help them cover the weakness in certain aspects. The Korean chaebols is a good example where they stand very strong for a long duration of time over the years and various crisis as they are protected from cycles through each different business division. 





3. Diversification of  Investment Strategy

As a continuation to the above list of stocks, from our list, if you look very closely, you can see we have a diversified our investment strategy such that we do not invest with one single modus operandi. We have combined investing based on the stock's earnings yield, dividend, growth.  

Example : We invested in RCE Capital for the Earnings Yield, Scicom for Dividend, Pentamaster for Growth.

This is another form of diversification. This form of diversification is closely related to diversification across sector as using different focus on investment strategies would usually means you have to pick out from a basket of stocks belonging to different category of industries. 



4. Diversification of Asset Class

This last bit is not complex. Many I am sure knows the 30:30:40 rule. 30% savings, 30% investment & 40% expenses. Now use the same logic into asset class of products such as :

1. Cash
2. Equities / Stock
3. Fixed income / Bonds
4. Commodities / Gold
5. Pension / EPF
6. Amanah Saham / Tabung Haji (For the bumiputera)
7. Real Estate / Property

Noticed, I did not put insurance and cryptocurrency in the above asset class. This is because I do not believe in cryptocurrency and for insurance, I believe it serves a different purpose, i.e. not investment. Insurance to me, is for the safety net in the event something bad happens and best to purchase vanilla products instead of investment linked products when it comes to insurance. However, this is topic for another day. The short video below gives a simple illustration of Diversification. 






Do stay tune for my next write up, "Principles of Investing - Rule 4 :  "Scaling When Buying Falling Stocks"

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 





  4 people like this.
 
Erudite Tq
20/04/2020 11:20 PM
gohkimhock good write-up bro. For small time retail investors, I will always advise to concentrate the fund on 1 to 2 counters only. Study the financial statements properly and do not speculate.
20/04/2020 11:52 PM
VenFx This article can be a must article to collect, to remind me the Investing Diversity .
26/04/2020 12:34 PM
zhangliang Interesting read. likey!
26/04/2020 2:38 PM
qqq33333333 defend and attack..........


diversification as defense........but all defend no attack, how long can win?
26/04/2020 3:45 PM
Junichiro The best option is sell off early n cut loss. I do not think diversication can help in face of the big global plunge.
26/04/2020 4:42 PM
stklearner Since diversify, sell early, cut loss, helps to protect against unexpected big loss, i try to do all n see how, tq
26/04/2020 4:57 PM
VenFx Agree Junichiro sifu,

I hv been practising it since 2H2019
It work out extremely good to me.

Teamview sifu s article on how to successfully plan for a diversified portfolio equally important to benefit from a sector Chain.
26/04/2020 6:09 PM
Junichiro Hi, I am not sifu. The truth is if u are flush with cash when the KLCI plunged to the bottom, u would have make money by buying some dirt cheap shares. When u are flush with cash, u would be more comfortable taking a bit of risk.
26/04/2020 7:40 PM
klmly2 He (Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020) called many people as sifu.
btw, he bought high and keep to low, all risk taken. Brave guy
26/04/2020 8:38 PM
VenFx Agree Junichiro,
A realisation for 70% of the initial ,upon share price appreciate by 60% or above... a very good cut win point .
26/04/2020 8:58 PM
VenFx If, not i wud not able to gain big from armada.
26/04/2020 8:58 PM
qqq33333333 diversification as defence..... not true..... since all the stocks are correlated
26/04/2020 9:31 PM
qqq33333333 the real important decision is cash or shares
26/04/2020 9:32 PM
klmly2 I thought we lost 70% because of Armada??
Gain big 50% is last year, but this year over lost about 70%


Posted by Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 > Apr 26, 2020 8:58 PM | Report Abuse

If, not i wud not able to gain big from armada.
26/04/2020 10:43 PM
Junichiro A fund manager has to diversify because he is managing other ppl's money. He is paid to do the job. Nobody paid him to keep all the investor's funds in cash. At times when he should have disposed his entire portfolio, he is not able to do so. Hence, he has to diversify.

Whereas, when we are managing our own money, why is there a need to diversify ? Diversification does nothing to protect you from a loss since the whole market is going deep down.

"The nature of risk" by Justin Mamis, a former executive at the NYSE is good reading. I think you download it in the net for free. I still have this hardcover book in my library.
27/04/2020 9:29 AM
Junichiro A fund manager has other means to cut risk other than diversification.

It was reported in Nov 2019 in WSJ that Ray Dalio's hedge fund has placed a bet north of $1 billion that global stocks will fall by March 2020.The position is made up of put options that could pay out to Bridgewater Associates if the S&P 500, the Euro Stoxx 50, or both drop in value (Put options are contracts that grant investors the right to sell stocks at a predetermined price by a specific date.)
27/04/2020 9:49 AM
zhangliang Wah u all talk like expert. How normal retailer can buy derivatives ? And buying derivatives super risky. Don’t simply teach people if don noe. Best to be humble to learn. Qqq333, sure can hold cash, hold gold hence the article wrote there diversification of asset class man. Already written there y u repeat wat people say. Aiyoooo
27/04/2020 4:23 PM
gohkimhock hold construction and building materials counters.
27/04/2020 5:02 PM
Philip ( buy what you understand) In my humble opinion it is always far more important to buy what you understand than to diversify for diversification sake.

The key word here being understand. If you don't understand the business, diversification can easily lead to DIWORSIFICATION.
29/04/2020 11:17 PM

(Tradeview 2020) - Open Letter to Koon Yew Yin on Dayang, Margin & Ethics

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sat, 11 Apr 2020, 4:52 PM




Dear Tan Sri Koon,

You do not know me but I know you like many of the investors in the KLSE. Your reputation from the days as professional engineer, early pioneer of Malaysia's construction and building industry as the co-founder of IJM, Gamuda, Mudajaya, prominent investor and philanthropist is known to many. Your vocal opinions and write ups are often read and referred by many people as well. In short, you are a very influential man. At a ripe age of being an octogenarian, many look towards you for guidance, wisdom and advice. This is especially so when it comes to investing in the share market. In fact, you have many followers and readers, I believe the most even in the entire i3 forum.

I have thought very long and hard whether to write an open letter to you, Tan Sri, as what I am  about to say is not easy to swallow. I rarely write in reference to anyone in all my years writing, however in this instance, I cannot keep silent. I have to call you out for your unethical action in your public advice to readers / investors in the share concerning Dayang (5141).  

Dayang share price today is RM1.30. In your latest 10th April blog writing, you said that you have sold all Dayang even at a loss because of the price trend reversal being unsustainable and the oil market. However, you have no less than 30+ blogs promoting Dayang from as early as 2019 until today. Even up until 1st April, you were asking "Ikan Bills" investors to not be stupid to sell Dayang and reproduced a write up from Public Bank with TP of RM 2.80 to support your claim. I have attached some recent articles  by you below with some highlights on points you made (refer below).

I am calling you out now for misleading the public, readers and especially new investors who are new to investing with limited funds / savings. For everything you said and written have impact because of your stature, did you consider the repercussions of your action? You are rich and successful and do not need the money, but there may be some who have worked hard to save up their income hoping to invest in the share market during this lockdown period to supplement their family income or business income. As there are many writers in the i3 forum, some are great teachers, some are shady, some are syndicates hence many new investors would hope someone like you would be the right person to guide or teach them. What you have done is to a large extent grossly unethical and even immoral as we are now in the midst of an economy stagnation stage nation due to Covid-19. 

I agree that everyone needs to take responsibility for their own action especially when it comes to investing. We must however acknowledge that as part of the investing community and society as a whole, as human being as well, we owe it to one another to be righteous and upright, and if we cant, we might as well keep silent. However, you chose to speak and write in the public forum, with the goal of helping people make money and teaching people how to fish. My observations - what you did was the  opposite. You may start off wanting to give guidance and sharing good stocks so everyone can make money (including yourself) like Liihen, Hevea, Favco, Jaks, Teoseng, Dayang amongst the many, but whenever the calls start to go against you, you refuse to acknowledge but rather blame it on investment banks, company management, securities commission, ikan bilis investors, i3 readers on the forum, trends etc but you never once acknowledge you made a mistake. Even assuming you do not want to acknowledge mistakes, which is human nature (most wouldn't admit), the least you could do is not double or triple down on the same call and write it publicly with so much conviction whilst criticising others who do not think like you. The best example for this erroneous mistake by you is Dayang. 

I do not hold a single share in Dayang, but I think it is a good turnaround company which would do well if not for the oil market plunge. I can understand that this was unpredictable but that is the problem with companies in exposure towards commodities. This is a risk of investing but I dare say many investors do not think like you. The right thing to do was to own up or stick by your call, if you indeed believe so but not write articles over articles promoting your stock then selling suddenly and quietly leaving all your readers (supporters and new inexperience investors) suffering the brunt of the losses. You may say you also took a hit with Dayang, but please know that you can sustain the losses, not everyone who read your article and look up to you are as rich and successful as you who can sustain losses. Some may never rebound from this losses. Especially those who you followed your advice to invest on margin. Many would have lost their savings and be in debt as a result. This is also one of the worst advice you have shared with readers and new investors - to use margin to invest. 

I3 Forum may protect you from the comments column hence, we will not know how readers actually think of what you have done. I think I have said enough. This is my personal opinion, I do not represent anyone or organisations but myself. Please understand, I have no animosity towards you and I respect you for your contribution towards education, poverty and also you past contribution towards Malaysia's construction and building industry. I am not calling you out to insult or embarrass you, instead intend to express my view for you to continue to be a part of the investing community with greater sense of accountability / responsibility. You must understand with your influence, stature and knowledge, many people look up to you and seek out advice and guidance.

Do not abuse the trust people placed in you. Economics like the laws of the world, have its own way of finding an equilibrium.

Sincerely,

Tradeview 
11th April 2020



26th March





Labels: DAYANG
  16 people like this.
 
i3lurker after the 11,000 newbies from Rakuten came on board, I noticed that all those fake tech companies moved up instantly.

Strongman was screaming hoarse for years but these fake techs did not budge at all coz ALL of them dun have any revenue worth mentioning.

Its interesting that these 11,000 newbies find zero revenue companies interesting.
14/04/2020 8:42 PM
Sslee Haha i3lurker,
Remember the dot.com bubble? Now is tech bubble.
14/04/2020 8:43 PM
i3lurker nowadays
website programming => 1 day can complete

IOS or Android App => 1 day can complete

tech is easy, its

1) Good Idea
2) funding
3) marketing the good idea

all these tech companies have zero customers and zero revenue for years and years already.
Tomorrow will be the same as today => no revenue tomorrow also

some of these companies take many months to upload a website => no skill at all.

and those Apps have very bad ratings by users in Apple Store and Playstore. => no skill at all
14/04/2020 8:55 PM
Sslee Haha i3lurker,
qqq3 like to live dangerouesly. Fintec is a pefect trap to trap him and hang him dry.
14/04/2020 9:00 PM
qqq33333333 Posted by apolloang > Apr 14, 2020 7:41 PM | Report Abuse

I bought and sold dayang a few rounds already.....always buy low no problem
======


ok.....good for u.............
14/04/2020 9:14 PM
qqq33333333 d by OTB > Apr 14, 2020 4:41 PM | Report Abuse

Mr Koon should do well if he had listened to my advice.
I told him to sell all Dayang shares > 2.80.
======================

otb....I have not bought Dayang above $ 1.80...........does it make me a genius then?

why this OTB never want to miss a chance to boost his ratings? scared no customers?
14/04/2020 10:06 PM
qqq33333333 what is fintec?
14/04/2020 11:36 PM
qqq33333333 otb....don't be so arrogant....my little finger can beat u already........

what are u , otb? just a cultist.....
14/04/2020 11:39 PM
qqq33333333 d by OTB > Apr 14, 2020 4:41 PM | Report Abuse

Mr Koon should do well if he had listened to my advice.
I told him to sell all Dayang shares > 2.80.
======================

otb....I have not bought Dayang since it went above above $ 1.80...........does it make me a genius then?

why this OTB never want to miss a chance to boost his ratings? scared no customers?
14/04/2020 11:41 PM
qqq33333333 what are you, OTB? U just trying to sell dreams.........to s..uckers
14/04/2020 11:50 PM
paperplane I ALSO WANNA DO OPEN LETTER LAH, for the fun sake of it. OPEN LETTER TO MY XXX WIVES, MISTRESS, SMALL sexy
15/04/2020 8:23 AM
paperplane qqq3333333, come lah, you also do 1 open letter to OTB, so deeply in love you both
15/04/2020 8:38 AM
1Bid Nestle appears.

Nestle: Don't ever make fun of my high PE again. Whoever compare with me barely lasts for a year.
15/04/2020 2:12 PM
rogers123 Sslee Haha qqq3,
I thought you are his royal dog. So fast change your tune already when you know he lost 90% of his wealth. No more bone for you anymore?
14/04/2020 6:43 <--- GOOD
15/04/2020 11:21 PM
rogers123 qqq33333333 Posted by apolloang > Apr 14, 2020 7:41 PM | Report Abuse

I bought and sold dayang a few rounds already.....always buy low no problem
====== Don play with fire, U r still young, worried that u will DAYANG (DIEYOUNG)
15/04/2020 11:32 PM
duitKWSPkita No need to spend time to read his blogs..

All my super rich frens don't follow his counter... What they did is avoid from his highly trumpet counters.... He is not really wise man....
16/04/2020 12:39 PM
Alex™ Move on bro. Kena burn liao take it as tuition fee.
19/04/2020 9:20 AM
Alex™ Hello suit bro, long time no see hehe
19/04/2020 9:21 AM
Alex™ Wah... I really no long no back i3... Macam alot stories...
19/04/2020 9:22 AM
Talib businessman do things money come first, ethic come last.
19/04/2020 11:12 AM
qqq33333333 kyy is more Forrest Gump than Bernie Madoff
19/04/2020 12:32 PM
i3lurker Forest Gump became a multi-billionaire.
He did not lose 90% of his wealth.

please dun insult Forest Gump.
19/04/2020 12:38 PM
CharlesT Really got idiots to believe koon's 90% loss in wealth bullshits...
19/04/2020 12:42 PM
i3lurker Forest Gump only says nice things about people.

Forest Gump has not uttered a bad word from his mouth in his entire life.

Forest Gump never talk bad about people.

how to compare?
19/04/2020 12:43 PM
i3lurker who believe?

Koon is not Forest Gump

Posted by CharlesT > Apr 19, 2020 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
Really got idiots to believe koon's 90% loss in wealth bullshits...
19/04/2020 12:44 PM
CharlesT Scare die me....lol
19/04/2020 12:45 PM
qqq33333333 by i3lurker > Apr 19, 2020 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

Forest Gump became a multi-billionaire.
He did not lose 90% of his wealth.

please dun insult Forest Gump.
===========

maybe they have not done part 2 of movie..............coming ........
19/04/2020 12:46 PM
Sslee Haha,
Is Forest Gump real?
Or just fiction America story?
Even if Forest Gump lose 90% of his wealth anything to do with Koon?
19/04/2020 12:59 PM
qqq33333333 sslee........its anectode..anecdotal....comparisons are never the real thing but does serve a purpose......
19/04/2020 1:01 PM
Bearvsbull Bendia Posted by i3lurker > Apr 19, 2020 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

Forest Gump only says nice things about people.

Forest Gump has not uttered a bad word from his mouth in his entire life.

Forest Gump never talk bad about people.

how to compare?

Answer : Yeah, Forest Gump was the most perfect human being even lived!
19/04/2020 1:02 PM
qqq33333333 like using 2 D to paint a picture of real world....never the same and some times, weird results.......they call illusions.
19/04/2020 1:03 PM
qqq33333333 like financial market bullish, realists bearish..........

which is the real thing?
19/04/2020 1:04 PM
qqq33333333 latuk......its all about attitude.....KYY too can be funny and lovable at times just like Forrest Gump.
19/04/2020 1:06 PM
KAQ4468 Kah Kah Kah
19/04/2020 1:08 PM
Bearvsbull Bendia I think Mr Koon is very funny! He pump stocks and then dump them to obviously naive buyers! Over and over again! So hilarious!
19/04/2020 1:09 PM
qqq33333333 Latuk Seri Rick Walker > Apr 19, 2020 1:09 PM | Report Abuse

I think Mr Koon is very funny! He pump stocks and then dump them to obviously naive buyers! Over and over again! So hilarious!
========

the world is full of hilarious moments..............just need the correct attitude.
19/04/2020 1:11 PM
Alex™ Hello dragon sifu. How are you? Can buy what? I want sure win one
19/04/2020 1:20 PM
KAQ4468 Aiyooo Ammaaa apaaaav
19/04/2020 1:22 PM
KAQ4468 Habis Jahanam .....kikikiki'i





Posted by 鼠不尽的福报} {} {. 钱赚筹码~ 筹码换钱 > Apr 16, 2020 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

No need to spend time to read his blogs..

All my super rich frens don't follow his counter... What they did is avoid from his highly trumpet counters.... He is not really wise man....
19/04/2020 1:24 PM
Sslee Haha
Forest Gump only says nice things about people.
Forest Gump has not uttered a bad word from his mouth in his entire life.
Forest Gump never talk bad about people.
Do you think Forest Gump can survive in America society let alone become a multi-billionaire?

Only good story tellers, selling things you do not need or dream like Wawasan 2020, Wawasan 2030 or Wawasan 2050 can become multi-billionaire or nation leaders.

So who are the great story tellers in i3 and dream seller in Malaysia?
19/04/2020 1:24 PM
Bearvsbull Bendia SsLee! I think Harapan outpace Forest Gump! I mean, Harapan told us that Malaysia is like box of chocolate! But after we ate Harapan chocolate, it turn into turd at our rear end!
19/04/2020 1:33 PM
qqq33333333 KYY world views has always been over simplistic........so has Forest Gump.........

That is what makes Forest Gump such a popular and memorable movie...funny and lovely at the same time.


sometimes, many times, success in stock market , u need to be a bit more simplistic than the average guy. For otherwise, all the finance professors billionaires already.


The trouble with finance professors is called over thinking......that is the opposite from being simplistic.
19/04/2020 1:33 PM
qqq33333333 The trouble with finance professors is called over thinking......that is the opposite from being simplistic.

I know of people who over thinks stuffs and so , out of fear of being wrong.......they choose to put all their money in Insas and Xingguan.........and the rest is history...........
19/04/2020 1:35 PM
Sslee Haha,
During one of his personal talk I attended, Koon say he dare to use margin finance to the full because he buy only uptrend shares and if he get margin call it is still a blessing in disguise that bank is doing him a favor of forcing him to take profit. So can he lose 90%?
19/04/2020 1:38 PM
Bearvsbull Bendia SsLee! I don't think we will hear from Mr Koon for a long time! Dayang game him good and proper! Going to miss his bragging!
19/04/2020 1:44 PM
qqq33333333 Sslee > Apr 19, 2020 1:38 PM | Report Abuse

Haha,
During one of his personal talk I attended, Koon say he dare to use margin finance to the full because he buy only uptrend shares and if he get margin call it is still a blessing in disguise that bank is doing him a favor of forcing him to take profit. So can he lose 90%?
====

the short answer is yes he can.............the drop was fierce and unrelenting..........but since mid March , margin calls suspended...........
19/04/2020 1:56 PM
qqq33333333 y Latuk Seri Rick Walker > Apr 19, 2020 1:44 PM | Report Abuse

SsLee! I don't think we will hear from Mr Koon for a long time! Dayang game him good and proper! Going to miss his bragging!
==========

$ 100 million to $ 10 million , nothing need to change, nothing has changed.

$ 1 million to $ 100,000 , whole life can be upside down..............
19/04/2020 1:58 PM
Sslee Haha qqq3
Don't worry whether he only leave with 10 million, 1 million or 100K your master will be back sooner than you can say hello.
19/04/2020 2:11 PM
qqq33333333 Sslee > Apr 19, 2020 2:11 PM | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3
Don't worry whether he only leave with 10 million, 1 million or 100K your master will be back sooner than you can say hello.
============

85 years old, like Mahathir 95 years old........nothing will change as long as got last breathe.
19/04/2020 2:19 PM
qqq33333333 85 years old, like Mahathir 95 years old........nothing will change as long as got last breathe.

but the era of KYY/ Mahathir is over..........


and now the era of..............?
19/04/2020 2:21 PM

(Tradeview 2020) Principles of Investing - Rule 2 : "Small Is Beautiful, Especially During A Crisis."

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Tue, 7 Apr 2020, 8:43 PM





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________



The past week has been great for investors due to the relief rally globally and KLCI. Once again, the positive vibe re-emerged due to US Senate passing the US 2 trillion stimulus, extended unlimited QE commitment from Fed and for Malaysia, the drop of SRR by 100 basis point by BNM helped with the liquidity in the market. In addition, with the oil market surging upwards due to "potential resolution" between Saudi, Russia and US being the facilitator, oil traders are factoring in close to 10 million barrels of cut to help with the oversupply. Question is can this be resolved? I believe eventually, market forces are effective and will strike an equilibrium between supply and demand. In the immediate term, we shall know come this Thursday based on the OPEC+ discussion. 



Please note however that we have advocate caution many times and advised our readers to sell on strength instead of taking new positions as we believe the fundamentals of the market is wobbly due our belief of a protracted downward bear pressure for 6-12 months as a result of Covid-19, time for a vaccine to be ready for mass production and the economic aftermath impact from the MCO / lockdown domestically and globally. 

Previously, we advocated Rule 1 - Buy Good Quality Companies That Will Still Be Around in 5 Years. You can read it here http://www.tradeview.my/2020/03/tradeview-2020-my-principles-of.html . Today, we are moving on to Rule 2 - "Small Is Beautiful, Especially During A Crisis". Have a short view of the video below on how this UK Parliamentarian argue about the economics of being small. 



Now, in simpler terms, it is saying what we traditionally view as advantages of being big is something for us to review and rethink in today's climate. Why is that so? In fact using Covid-19 as an example, if would appear smaller countries seems to be handling the crisis and aftermath of the impact better than large countries. Of course, logically this is because of the healthcare system for larger countries to cater to the population as a whole is more challenging, the considerations taken for a large country with various states and stakeholders compared to a tiny Singapore or Switzerland has less of these issues. In essence, the advantage I am trying to exhibit is about being nimble. "Small & Nimble" - this reminds of the story of the mice and the elephant. 

The reasons are as follows :

1. Small but Nimble 

As a small investor, we have the ability to adapt and move quickly, compared to the large funds or institutions. As a small investor, one can change their strategy as and when one see the market moving in a different direction without going through layers of approvals like big funds. Example : I can decide to go underweight the oil market without going to the head of investment or even the board to say, "hey, lets move our money out of the oil market now and into technological sector". In fact, some big institutional funds have a specific mandate to only invest in certain sector which limits their ability to navigate out of the downtrodden sector despite seeing the challenges ahead. Another interesting point to note, some large funds are not allowed to invest in stocks which are not covered by institutional research arms, whereby clients in these funds only allow them to invest in stocks where banks have published rated reports. All these cumbersome rules of governance that binds the big boys are not applicable to small investor which makes small investors very nimble.

2. Taking Positions and Realising.

As a small investor, one can sell easily because my position is small without wrecking havoc in the market. For instance, if I decide to sell off 100,000 shares of Serba Dinamik, it is much easier for me to offload compared to a fund like EPF to throw 1,000,000 shares. This is because when small investors throw, the share price does not move in the same weightage compared to the big boys. The opposite is true, whereby when I buy into a stock, it barely moves compared to when the big boys enter. But this will push up the price affecting the average entry price. Being small allows me to average down as and when or average up, but when you are big, your funds will push it and it takes a long time before you can even realise the position (be it sell or buy) at a meaningful price or entry level. Hence, this is a distinct advantage of being nimble.  

3. Investing in Small and Mid Cap Stocks

What most people do not understand is that big funds do not invest much in small and mid cap stocks. This because there is lack of liquidity to cater to their investment size and of course, the risk of small and mid cap stocks are too high for these funds to bear. An example would be a stock like CCK, OCK, DKSH, the stock has limited amount of free float for a big fund to take a meaningful size. This means if the fund enters at a good level and wants to realise profit, there may be no taker. This will be a problem as the fund would be stuck with a stock for a long time. As small investors we do not have these problem. Whilst Bursa has a rule of 25% minimum public float, but it is insufficient for big funds to take a meaningful stake for small and mid cap stocks. 

4. Disclosure and public knowledge 

Most of who are in the market would know the annual reports and BURSA periodically exhibits top 30 shareholders of the company and also substantial shareholders transaction of the company right? This is a problem small investors don't have. Small investors would know hold a stake to the point of regulatory requirement for disclosure and can move freely without worrying about public opinion or swaying the market direction for the particular stock. However, this is a problem for funds. If say EPF or Tabung Haji disposes or drop from the list of top shareholders, this would affect sentiment of the stocks (whether rational or irrational, this is a topic for another day). Let's take a more recent example; Dayang where the notable investor is Tan Sri Koon Yew Yin and UZMA where Brahmal of Creador has recently taken a position. When Tan Sri makes a comment or write up on Dayang, the entire market will follow with great interest. Now, imagine what happens if the market suddenly realises the announcement that Tan Sri no longer holds a substantial share in Dayang? Would it cause a panic? It would right and the holders of Dayang may rush to gates. Same goes for Brahmal of Creador. Imagine, yesterday The Edge reported about Creador taking a stake in Uzma as the largest shareholder, what if today Bursa announces Creador has ceased to be substantial shareholder of Uzma, would you be still confident to hold the stock? So this is another clear illustration of the beauty of being a small investor. 

 
If you have followed the article to this point, you must be wondering, all is good and fine but how do small investors take advantage of the above mentioned point. Have a look at this video by Peter below :




We sincerely believe that it is about using what you have to your advantage. As a small investor, we are nimble, we can take and realise position as and when we want to, we have no disclosure obligations and not bounded by governance rules, furthermore, we can invest in small or mid cap stocks to diversify our risk. These advantages should be adopted to real life application and not just wait for movement by big funds like EPF, Tabung Haji, KWAP, PNB to show us the money. If indeed these funds are doing so well, then there would be no need for the Malaysia MOF to set up Urusharta Jammah Sdn. Bhd., to takeover poor performing stocks and underwrite the losses. This is very clear illustration that not all big boys know what they are doing. I would go as far as to say many are not even half as good as small investors on various reasons but amongst those are mentioned above.


Do stay tune for my next write up, "Principles of Investing - Rule 3 :  "Diversification Is The Best Defence"


_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 



E. F. Schumacher quote: Man is small, and, therefore, small is ...






  Be the first to like this.
 

(Tradeview 2020) The Interlude

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sat, 4 Apr 2020, 2:30 PM






Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________


I call this The Interlude. It means a temporary intervention in the middle of an event. Like when you are watching a theatre show or broadway play, during the middle (intermission). Why? 






As most market followers would have know by now that the oil market had a sudden surge of close to 40% in 2 days due to Trump's tweet and the pending OPEC+ meeting to potentially cut supply of oil production. I need not explain more as the Crude and Brent Oil chart shows exactly what is happening in the global oil market. Trump is also trying to stabilise the oil market at the US front by having meetings with top oil executives over the weekend. Globally, he claimed to have spoken to Russia's Putin and Saudi's Prince MBS.

This has led to the steadying of KLCI index as a whole due to the relief rally which rotated towards the oil and gas sector. Stocks like Serba Dinamik, Uzma, Dayang, Naim, Penergy, Hibiscus, Carimin amongst the many have rebounded strongly in 2 days in tandem with the oil price relief. Whilst we highly think this is premature, but the fact is oil price has plunge equally deeply.




Whilst China's Covid-19 situation seems to be in control, other parts of the world are heading towards and implosion or peak. This includes US, Europe and closer to home, WHO has said Malaysia would be reaching its peak in middle of April. 


Now there are 2 prongs to analyse these news and market happenings above :

1. The jobs / unemployment rate. Non-Farm Payroll US release was really bad at 700k jobs lost, whilst unemployment has risen to 4.4%. And it will only get worst with the next month due to the situation in US. 

2. Oil market continued the rally today and surge continues after OPEC+ agreed to meet to discuss the oil situation. However nothing conclusive has been reached and it is believe, Trump will meet US oil producers to discuss their role to play in stabilising the market (including taking their share of production cut). If US, Canada, Brazil agrees on top of OPEC+ only then it will be possible for 10 million barrels cut. 

For both points, unemployment data indicates recession and is clear precursor of global recession. Do not forget, the share market usually moves 6 months ahead of actual economic situation. For oil, if producers of oil in OPEC+ and beyond do cut, it will benefit Malaysia directly as we are oil nation and will help with the government coffers. This will then lead to another round of short rally before the market returns to the normalcy of the true scenario of a recession. 

In short, we believe that the true and only way for the economy to get out of the doldrums is if the vaccine for Covid-19 is ready. Otherwise it will be a long protracted battle of downward bear pressure for the market and we forecast this will last for at least the next 6-12 months and may revisit previous KLCI low of 1210.

Remember, in our earlier articles 19th March 2020 and again 24th March 2020 when we openly put in black and white for our readers to see our position where we said it is time to collect and enter (refer here : http://www.tradeview.my/2020/03/tradeview-2020-recession-is-finally.html
http://www.tradeview.my/2020/03/tradeview-2020-cash-is-king-time-to.html) , I believe many have already made some gains. Our advice this moment now, except for long term dividend yielding growth stocks to hold and ride it out, we think the others that had rebounded on relief, those in position should consider to take profit.

This is why we call it The Interlude. We believe once this very short oil relief rally is over, the forces of economics, actual business fundamentals (where businesses are not opened due to lockdown, unemployment on the rise, loss of revenue for govt in taxes and larger deficit due to the stimulus) kicks in, there will be another round of sell down. This is our view and we are advocating caution for your hard earned money / savings. 




_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 





  2 people like this.
 
Erudite Good one!
05/04/2020 11:02 AM
Flintstones How is this good? This guy been spreading unnecessary fear for the last two weeks and talking like an expert. But he has no track record at all, just an anonymous blogger like CP Teh. While he is spreading fear, most stocks already rebounded 30-40% from the lows making big bucks
05/04/2020 11:05 AM
zhangliang Flintstone joker, he no spread fear, Tradeview bro track record is there been around mani mani yrs, v well respected. I 4low him long long time also. he oredi called 2 buy few weeks back, pls read b4 commenting. Dont malu urself, v shameful 2 comment b4 talking.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-03-24-story-h1485614575-_Tradeview_2020_Cash_Is_King_Time_to_Deploy.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-03-19-story-h1484927454-_Tradeview_2020_Recession_is_finally_here_Or_is_it_an_Opportunity_of_A_.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-03-05-story-h1484718676-_Tradeview_2020_Guidance_In_A_Bear_Market_Correction_or_Selldown_CCK_OC.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2019-12-10-story245919-_Tradeview_2019_Full_Year_Update_33_Gain_YTD_for_Value_Picks_as_at_10th_December_2019.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2017-12-09-story-h1452337933-_Tradeview_2017_Last_Monthly_Report_Card_of_2017_As_at_9th_December.jsp
05/04/2020 12:03 PM
Flintstones Post so many links for what? I didn’t even click on a single one. Why wanna read nonsense written by beginner blogger? Lmao
05/04/2020 12:45 PM
zhangliang My bad, din realise entertaining a nincompoop. Did some digging, found out flintstones was a caveman. Din expect to meet 1 in the forum 2day.
05/04/2020 1:36 PM
Erudite Aiyo, don’t fight la. It’s flintstone idiot, Not worth the salt. Waste time. Hv a gd weekend
05/04/2020 1:38 PM

(Tradeview 2020) My Principles of Investing - Rule 1: Buy Good Quality Companies Which Will Still Be Around In 5 years

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sat, 28 Mar 2020, 3:21 PM





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________



The past week has been great for investors due to the relief rally globally and KLCI. Once again, the positive vibe re-emerged due to US Senate passing the US 2 trillion stimulus, extended unlimited QE commitment from Fed and for Malaysia, the drop of SRR by 100 basis point by BNM helped with the liquidity in the market. Of course it was also on the steepest sell down in KLCI since 1997, you can see the chart below.


As you can see the steep sell off have caused a sharp technical rebound or rally of almost 110 points from 1219 to 1334.73 as per this afternoon KLCI break. This in our view is within our expectations though the magnitude of rebound exceeded expectations. However, the question remains for us and many of our readers are, will this be U shape rebound or V shape? Different circumstances dictates different outcome. I will give a simple hypothetical :

If tomorrow, any country announced the vaccine for Covid-19 is ready, most definitely this will lead to a V shape rebound globally across all markets. If the Covid-19 prolongs coupled with other factors, it may even be a case of U shape rebound. In addition, world economies will need to deal with the aftermath of the impact from Covid-19.

So question now, should I sell on strength, hold or wait for dips / retracement to enter the market again since KLCI and global economy has rebounded so strongly in 1 week?




This is where I hope to draw the attention of my readers to. As boring as it may be, value investing is the best guide to making your decision. Please use this as guidance above and to make it even simpler for beginners, I would like to share our Rule 1 - Buy Good Quality Companies Which Will Still Be Around in 5 years.

This seems like such an simple philosophy, some may even say its lame. But if you look back at each recession, there is always a minority that is still around with the same management, same name and continued good performance. Just compare 1997 to 2020 share counters. Therefore, we do not have to look all the way into the future 50-100 years unlike Warren Buffet did with Coca-cola. The reason is because today, with the proliferation of technology, competitive landscape, easy funding and liquidity, there will be an ever changing dynamic to the business world. What may be around and successful now will disappear in 5 years. Additionally, investors these days are less patient and more greedy than ever, hoping for fast return and money. Not many can wait. Hence, my rationale for using the 5 years metric. 



I will use a few of the stocks in my list to exhibit how I choose to the shares to invest. CCK was listed in 1996 as poultry broiler farm company. Over the years it has evolved and grown tremendously. Today, CCK should no longer be a designated poultry company as it has businesses in aquaculture and bulk of their earnings are derived from their CCK fresh mart. There are retail company with foot prints mainly in East Malaysia. Recent expansion to Indonesia are amongst is growth strategies paying off. So when I chose this company, I believed in the prospect of the growth and most importantly, the management. I know in 5 years, this company will still be around and grow even bigger. If you look at their earnings and dividends, every year it has improved in tandem with their business strategies. Previously, we have analysed their mid term Fair value to be at 69 sens. Due to the market sell down, it is only trading at 34 sens now. It is 40% below its intrinsic value, has good DY of 3+%, it is growing as well. If we don't consider investing now, when else?



Another example would be Guan Chong Bhd, the largest cocoa grinder in South East Asia. It is companies like this that make us as Malaysian proud. I believe most would not have known about this humble 1 factory company has grown to be a leader in this sector and region. What I like a bit this company is the fact it is involved in processing of a raw commodities which are required on daily basis for the FMCG sector. Additionally, it has grown organically in the past but in recent times have grown through M&A buying German chocolate maker Schokinag Holding GmbH for RM137.84 million at the end of January.  The valuation in itself is not expensive for a growth company at only trailing 9x PER at current price of RM2.06 (Please note ourselves and our subscribers entry price is much lower as we bought on weakness). Further they have implemented sound growth strategy whereby they are setting up their facility in Ivory Coast, the biggest cocoa producer in the world to bring down cost for their exports. I believe in 5 years, GCB will do even better and with their focus being exporting to overseas market, the world is the market.




I like the message that Ray Dalio is trying to convey here, the time to buy is when there are blood on the streets. These are just amongst the 13 stocks I have picked during this downturn and my list will only grow with the emerging values. I also like a variety of big caps and small caps, not just mid cap stocks. I sincerely believe we should not fear buying on weakness but we must have the ability to hold. I understand it take a lot of guts to buying on  a sell down compared to buying on a bull run, but it is all psychological. If you are worried and scared, always return to this Rule 1 - Buy Good Quality Companies Which Will Still Be Around in 5 Years. 

Do stay tune for my next write up, "Principles of Investing - Rule 2 : Small Is Beautiful, Especially During A Crisis."


_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 










  3 people like this.
 
Flintstones Your wonderful companies is actually trash. Before investing for five years, you already failed your stock selection
28/03/2020 4:37 PM
zhangliang TQVM Tradeview bro, 4 d gr8 selection! Made 20% in 1 week following ur calls to deploy. Best ROI 4 me in ur 13 stocks is GCB, MFCB, Penta, Public Bank, CCK. Others m still waiting! Hope rebound soon!
28/03/2020 4:49 PM
Erudite Can enter mkt now? US fell 900+ points last night. RCE Capital and DKSH didn’t move yet. Still can masuk now? Govt stimulus 250 BN in Msia, Ban short sell, no more margin call, such a big boost 2 BURSA right?
28/03/2020 4:52 PM
zhangliang Who is dis flintstones? Come from cave is it? Carry a car made of rock but operate with his feet? Hahaha all 13 stocks in Tradeview list been listed & running from than 10 years. Shame on u Flintstones.
28/03/2020 5:11 PM

(Tradeview 2020) - April Fool's Came Early : MYR 100 Billion Bank Loans Deferment Policy By Government

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020, 1:42 PM




Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________

I am sure most by now would be have heard about a "wonderful" new policy by Government which allows people and businesses to enjoy a 6 months period moratorium. Now, I do not usually comments on politics as I am a financial writer, not a political writer. 

However due to the urgency and request for clarification by many of my readers, I felt obligated to write an immediate post to enlighten my readers due to the misconception painted to the public by the Government especially where it is being trumpeted like a "Great Escape" for the people from their current predicament. 

Our new PM said RM100 billion worth of credit restructuring will result thanks to the Moratorium on bank loans repayment for 6 months. Now first thing first, it is important to understand what Moratorium means. A quick search on Mr. Google shares :



After studying and understanding this so called policy to help the people, we find this to be a half past six measure / half baked policy to assist the people. In a same away, this is exactly like the EPF Account 2 assistance aid to the Rakyat. 

Let me explain, before clarification from BNM, many thought the interest during 6 months deferment period of all loans (except credit card) will not be charged. Turns out, whilst both principal and interest are suspended for the 6 months period however the interest owing still runs including the 6 months period which is accrued to be pay later. 

In simpler terms, the policy only defers 6 months but this 6 months interest unpaid during deferment will be charged later on to the people and business. 





It is no wonder the banks shares perform well today, because it doesn't affect the banks at all as the  Bank's cashflow in this 6 months will be mitigated by the lifting of their reserves by BNM and in fact may even get extra income from people and businesses who don't understand the real impact because the loan tenure is extended and additional interest income can be collected for the 6 months deferment. A simple explanation below  :

Now Ali have 30 months loan outstanding, because of Covid 19, the Government imposes lockdown.  Ali cannot work and have no income, or Ali work from home, and Ali's Boss forced to continue paying salary even though Ali's Boss shop is close and Ali Boss has no income. How long can Ali and Ali's Boss sustain? 3 months, 6 months, or 12 months?

Hence the Government imposes moratorium for 6 months on banks loans as relief to Ali and Ali's Boss (Individual and SME). This is great news right? But no, turns out Ali and Ali's Boss will still need to pay the interest on the loan for the 6 months moratorium. Which means Ali's original interest on the loan for 30 months has now been extended to 36 months! 





Same like the EPF Account 2 aid, the Government permits the people are to withdraw their OWN MONEY during this difficult time. It is in fact actually using our own future savings for old age to be used presently. Yet, the Government shouts about the potential RM40 billion flooded to the market. This is not a form of stimulus at all. These funds are already within the financial system of the country. It is with the EPF who uses our savings and funds to invest and support financial & the housing markets. So what is new?

Policy makers, please fee free to read comments of the Rakyat before making half baked policies.

Covid-19: Mixed reactions over EPF withdrawal scheme
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/24/covid-19-mixed-reactions-over-epf-withdrawal


Relief at the expense of EPF savers
https://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/letters/2020/03/25/relief-at-the-expense-of-epf-savers


https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/231406


Unlike other countries such as US, Japan, UK, Italy, Singapore and others, the government steps in and absorbs the cost for the suffering people and business instead of passing the cost to the people.  Example, in the US, the government student loans for 2 months and whilst it is suspended in the 2 months the interest for loan repayment is waived, not accrued!

The government should have a skin in the game, instead of asking the people and business to shoulder the financial hardship from being locked down unable to make a living. This is why the Rakyat and Businesses pay taxes, for the Government to use the taxes to take care of the Rakyat  and Businesses during difficult times







Quoting a reader of mine " It's a big disappointment and for good 3-4 pager of notices in the Circular , This key point on interest on accrued interest is only at the footnote" 



As I am writing, a fresh news is out saying MCO is extended another 14 days to 14th April. From '' 1. warm water stops Covid-19, 2. EPF Account 2 withdrawal releases RM40 billion into the market and 3. 6 months Bank Loan Moratorium releases RM100 Billion to the market,  indeed, April Fool's came early this 2020.

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 











  3 people like this.
 
Erudite Sad but true
28/03/2020 6:06 PM
moneySIFU Very good write up, well done & thank you, tradeview
04/04/2020 8:31 PM

(Tradeview 2020) - "Cash Is King", Time to Deploy?

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Tue, 24 Mar 2020, 3:24 PM





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________

"Cash Is King", this age old adage or wisdom you may call it has ring true in the many years of financial markets history of mankind. The reason why bank continues to grow and prosper is because it serves the very fundamental needs of mankind since the invention of currency (money) as the methodology of trade. When you see the headline news articles in 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2000s dotcom bubble, 2008 Global Financial Crisis and today, the Covid-19 2020 Global Meltdown, you will see the truth in this wisdom. 

But what does this phrase actually means?  Have a look at this video below by Warren Buffet where he gives his perspective on what cash is king really all about. 




The logic of having lots of cash is to deploy when necessary. It is not a form of collection but it is a tool to be used when the occasion arises. However, due to ever competitive and changing business model landscape in today's economy, most governments and private sector companies are highly leveraged or geared as a whole. Running on budget deficits seems to be a common notion. In the chase of revenue growth, many top companies bleed cash year in year out. What more governments? Few practice fiscal prudence. Example : Argentina




That is why people and companies belonging to the likes of Warren Buffet, Li Ka Shing, Robert Kuok are highly admired because their businesses churns out good profit and cash flow, above and beyond that, they have substantial cash reserves stashed away for rainy days and to be used for occasion like the current market sell down we are facing. We don't have to even look far, let's look at one of the many companies of Malaysia richest man Robert Kuok, PBB Group, the cash holdings is a staggering RM1.5 billion. 




I have had numerous discourse with extremely intelligent people on their view on the market. Some would be hesitant to call this a recession as a recession has to be shown by data of negative growth over a prolong period of time. Yet, why is it even the common man on the street knows that this is a recession or recession looming? Well very simple answer to that would be the stock market usually reacts ahead of time. It is one of the best indicators. Usually the stock market, the property market, then the job market. Now can anyone disagree with me that all the markets mentioned above is not suffering? 



Therefore this would bring me to the conclusion that we are indeed facing a recession and with our cash in hand, is it time to deploy? 


1. Savings for Rainy Days :

I think most people would be a net debt position instead of net cash. This includes many listed companies as well. High net worth individuals mostly also leverage up on their wealth to build more wealth. So all in all, most people have more debts than cash. Few have substantial savings to weather the storm but I do think that many have some emergency funds or savings set aside. 

If we are to dig deep and look at our reserves, do we have the necessary extra funds to invest in the market? Please make sure whilst reading my articles on investment, I will never ever ask my readers to take margin, borrow money, rack up credit card debts just to buy shares. THIS IS WRONG. 

My priority and goal towards financial independence is always premised on using excess cash / extra funds to invest in the market. Delay instant gratification like buying a nice car or luxury items, instead use those allocated funds for such gratification to invest in quality value stocks for the future income / wealth. So first thing first, make sure you set aside at least 25-30% of income to savings for rainy days, children's education, health care fees, insurance etc. These are funds you cannot touch and utilise for investment no matter what. Beyond that, you can consider for other usages such as investment.




2. Deploying Excess Funds for Good Stocks Now :

How many times have you all heard older folks sharing last time Public Bank only RM5, Maybank only RM3, Genting RM1 etc? I am sure countless. Now whenever you hear that, did you ever ask them why they didn't bought back then?

Of course, everyone has different circumstances. For those in the market, probably they got stuck with large amounts in their shareholdings unable to get out before the sell down. Some require excess funds for their own business and personal expenses. Hence my viewpoint above, deploying EXCESS Funds for Good Stocks NOW. 

Many authors of articles write very carefully as they are afraid readers will blame them in case anything go wrong. So in their articles, it is always pointing out the obvious, or sharing observations with no transparent guidance on their calls or picks or direction. We would like to make it very clear, if you have spare funds lying around or excess cash, delay buying a new car or new toy or new luxury jewellery or whatever it may be, use the funds to buy into good fundamental stocks whacked down terribly due to the current situation. I know many are under lockdown, working from home, you would have some time compared to working hours to study and understand the market. For those who do not know and are lazy to study, following us and our articles, we have shared multiple times before on our stock picks below. We share it again here now. 


We previously shared the following stocks as our favourite :


  1. CCK
  2. OCK
  3. RCE Capital
  4. DKSH
  5. Riverstone Holdings Ltd (Singapore listed)
  6. Pintaras Jaya
  7. GCB
  8. MFCB
  9. Scicom
  10. RHB Bank
  11. Pentamaster
  12. Public Bank
  13. QL Resources

If any of you all have been reading and following and entered as our articles are published, I am sure most would be in +Ve position as the market has rebounded over close to 100 points since then. 

Please stay tune for our next write up on "Principles of Investing - Rule 1: Buy Good Quality Companies Which Will Still Be Around In 5 years".

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 









  3 people like this.
 
zhangliang TQVM !
24/03/2020 5:53 PM
VenFx BIG LIKE !
26/03/2020 11:58 AM
klmly2 https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123026.jsp
Support VenFx (Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020)
26/03/2020 3:47 PM
ahbah Wrong deployment, our hard earn moni will burn in the mkt fire !
26/03/2020 3:51 PM
zhangliang sumting wrong wit u Ahbah, u c the mkt up 9% since? Rallying la mkt, apalah ahbah
26/03/2020 4:38 PM
Erudite Wow! Awesome picks man
28/03/2020 6:04 PM

(Tradeview 2020) - Recession is finally here? Or is it an Opportunity of A Lifetime?

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Thu, 19 Mar 2020, 8:53 PM





Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________



The Covid-19 news cycle seems be on 24 hours a day and that seems to be the most information i received every day in my WhatsApp or telegram group. In fact, it would seem to be the most dominating headline of our every day life. The question in my mind was why now? Why finally after so many long months only we are at this point? Was it ignorance, optimism, or wilful blindness? 

But enough of Covid-19, I am sure most are sick and tired of this. Let me focus on what matters, how to make the most of the current situation. When Malaysia was a tiger economy in the 1990s until end of the millennium, the crisis hit us hard due to the Asian financial crisis. It took Southeast Asia economy almost 20 years to be on a sound footing.  




Many have said, finally, this is it, recession. The recession they have predicted finally arrived. Some predicted it to arrive since 2013. I remember a very big fund listed on our share market was one of those. Well, surely a broken clock may be right once a day. The question is not about being right but if you are right, what are you going to do about it? This is the same thing I ask myself every single night before going to bed (second last thing is observing global markets indicators). Are we willing to pull the trigger? 



The reason why heroes are so well loved because there are few and hard to come by. I believe once this whole entire episode is over, there will be only a handful that people will sing about. Specifically about their success in making the most of this frightening times. So let me share few simple viewpoints and of course some of our actions taken in this climate. I do not believe we will be right but if anything, history have taught us well and we should always head back to history to guide us especially in the times of uncertainty and great crisis. I believe this is a major crisis and especially so unexpected to the start of a new decade. 


1. What rises will fall & similarly what has fallen will rise :

With the triple whammy of political instability, oil plunge and Covid-19, the perfect storm has come to the shores of Malaysia. None can escape unscathed. Now when the market is on a bull run, we think it will keep going up. Ex: At 15x PE, analysts say its cheap comparing to global peers which valuations stands at 25x. Today, those so-called cheap laggard counters are actually down to a valuation of only 4-6x PE valuation. True it is unfair to generalise as it is a downtrodden market affected even the best investors in the world. However this is a reflection of the market sentiment and investor confidence.

Let's have a look at the charts to compare :



STI - Singapore Index has fallen substantially from its peak of 3650 in 2018 to 2425 today, estimated 34% down.


S&P 500 has fallen from 3400 to 2398 estimated 30.5% to date. 





KLCI has fallen from 1900 in 2018 to 1219 today, estimated 40%.





Now if you compare the major dips from the peak to the bottom in 1997 - (1250 to 500), 2008 - (1400 to 800), & today 2020 - (1900 to 1219), it would appear there may be still some down side. On average each crisis, it falls close to or more than 50% from the peak of the market. Also you will notice the timeframe of recovery is between 6 months - 12 months from the bottom. 2008 was more of a V shape rebound compared to U shape rebound for 1997. Would 2020 crisis be a V or U shaped? In my view, it would be a U-shaped if the vaccine is not created sooner than later. After all, since the explosion of epidemic in Wuhan, China till today, it has been almost 4 months.



The important difference is this, so far there is no mass layoff yet and no street protest or unrest for Malaysia. Also, BNM is still solid and fundamentally sound compared to back in 1997. However, all this will get out of control if the new Government do not get their actions together to formulate a proper way out for the country. Remember, there is still shortfall from GST, shortfall from oil plunge income for the national coffers, increasing budget deficit, high debt outstanding from 1MDB amongst the many other issues we have yet to resolve. With limited fiscal room for the Government to manoeuvre, there is a risk our MGS will become less attractive for foreign funds especially with this global sell down, foreign funds as more choice than before where the global markets having lofty valuations compared to Malaysia.






2. Statesmanship to Lead the Country out of Turmoil :

One of the most notable effort by our country leaders during the 1997 crisis was to implement capital control to help us out. Shortly in 1 year, Malaysia was back on growth track. Till today, many dispute this decision by our Govt then. It wasn't until much later that international community praised Malaysia government in rejecting IMF money by pegging Ringgit against USD. 

The fact of that matter is today, we do not have the leader of comparable calibre to lead us, be it in terms of government policy or economic policy. The backdoor government only cares about their own position and power and in the midst of the Covid-19 played a terrible political play for their own personal interest leading to the spike in cases due to lapse in supervision and control measures implement.

Many things could have been prevented and many rescue plans could have been formulated if the government was still operating, not a window of 2 week coupled with further effort spent on politicking, trade bartering and on boarding for new / old but incompetent ministers. This is my biggest concern as I believe the international community will find a resolution to the virus but the aftermath will have long lasting effect on the country whereby the economy will take a long time to rebound due to poor leadership.



We previously shared the following stocks as our favourite :


  1. CCK
  2. OCK
  3. RCE Capital
  4. DKSH
  5. Riverstone Holdings
  6. Pintaras Jaya
  7. GCB
  8. MFCB
Now, you may say by entering this 8 counters, it has fallen also since the time we shared out article. Indeed, however, similarly the valuation you entered is way cheaper than its FV am I right? So if you should hold it for 12 months, would it still concern you? That is what you should ask yourself.

We are looking at these few more :
  1. Scicom
  2. RHB Bank
  3. Pentamaster
  4. Public Bank
  5. QL Resources

We have many more counters we are thinking to invest with the current market sentiment. They all say Cash is King, best to hold cash, stay sidelines. Now, then what would the purpose of holding cash be for?

Please stay tune for our next write up on "Cash Is King", Time to Deploy?

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 








  Be the first to like this.
 
firehawk DJIA drops to 3yrs low, KLSE drops to 13 yrs low, really a chi pek !!!

Ppl rise we don't rise, ppl drop we drop more ....
19/03/2020 11:31 PM
ahbah I am now reali an utmost POOR kampong kid caused by our killer Bursa !
20/03/2020 1:30 PM
ahbah The firm has nearly halved its baseline global growth forecast for 2020 to just 1.3 per cent from 2.5 per cent in the December 2019 GEO.
20/03/2020 1:55 PM
ahbah ”But even on this basis we now expect eurozone growth to be minus 0.4 per cent this year. The baseline forecast for US growth is one per cent in 2020 compared with a pre-virus outlook of two per cent and GDP is expected to fall by 0.5 per cent (or two per cent annualised) in 2Q20.“
20/03/2020 1:57 PM
ahbah It expects global growth to fall to 1.3 per cent in 2020 from 2.7 per cent in 2019, which would be weaker than global downturns in the early 1990s and in 2001.
20/03/2020 1:59 PM
ahbah With key economic data worldwide continuing to disappoint amid the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, experts say the worst is yet to come.
21/03/2020 2:59 PM
ahbah Being a trade-reliant country, with trade accounting for 131% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 according to the World Bank, Malaysia has minimal chance - if any - to escape a recession if the world plunges into economic turmoil.
21/03/2020 3:03 PM
patrick8 Any intelligent guess on Monday opening?
Very likely Red.
21/03/2020 5:56 PM
Keyman188 Fund allocation...

35% of investment fund - during range 1200 ~ 1300

35% of investment fund - during range 1050 ~ 1200

30% of investment fund - during below 1050...............


Example :-

Assumption investment fund : $ 200,000

During 1200 ~ 1300 lvl, intend to purchase 5 Co. (35% of total investmet funds allocation)

Co.A @ 2.00 = allocation of $ 18,500 = 9,200 units

Co.B @ 1.70 = allocation of $ 15,500 = 9,100 units

Co.C @ 1.50 = allocation of $ 14,000 = 9,300 units

Co.D @ 1.30 = allocation of $ 12,000 = 9,200 units

Co.E @ 1.10 = allocation of $ 10,000 = 9,000 units


If index further decelerated to 1050 ~ 1200 lvl, then another 35% of total investment funds allocation

Co.A @ 1.50 = allocation of $ 19,000 = 12,600 units

Co.B @ 1.30 = allocation of $ 16,500 = 12,700 units

Co.C @ 1.10 = allocation of $ 14,000 = 12,700 units

Co.D @ 0.90 = allocation of $ 11,500 = 12,700 units

Co.E @ 0.70 = allocation of $ 9,000 = 12,800 units


If index further decelerated below 1050, then balance 30% of total investment funds allocation

Co.A @ 1.10 = allocation of $ 19,000 = 17,200 units

Co.B @ 0.90 = allocation of $ 15,500 = 17,200 units

Co.C @ 0.70 = allocation of $ 12,000 = 17,100 units

Co.D @ 0.50 = allocation of $ 8,500 = 17,000 units

Co.E @ 0.30 = allocation of $ 5,000 = 16,600 units


## So total share holding & average price for each company :-

Co.A = $ 56,220 / 39,000 units = $ 1.4415

Co.B = $ 47,460 / 39,000 units = $ 1.2169

Co.C = $ 39,890 / 39,100 units = $ 1.0202

Co.D = $ 31,890 / 38,900 units = $ 0.8198

Co.E = $ 23,840 / 38,400 units = $ 0.6208


%% At the end, the final average price of each company almost lower than the price during 1050 ~ 1200 index level

@@ This is illustration & reference only....
21/03/2020 6:02 PM
firehawk Will not be a recession loh ....
Recession most prominent criteria --> high jobless rate + layoff ...now is not the economy issue loh ....

Hope an effective vaccine will finally be found to end the fear.
23/03/2020 12:23 AM
Junichiro Scientist in S'pore published the latest findings - Covid has mutated into a less lethal common flu.
23/03/2020 9:37 AM
qqq33333333 osted by Junichiro > Mar 23, 2020 9:37 AM | Report Abuse

Scientist in S'pore published the latest findings - Covid has mutated into a less lethal common flu.
===============

the L and S strains.............
23/03/2020 9:42 AM
Erudite So interesting
28/03/2020 6:07 PM

(Tradeview 2020) What Was Stolen From Us?

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Thu, 12 Mar 2020, 5:34 PM


Image result for the big short


Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________

Not money. It is confidence. This is the most important element for an economy. Investor confidence & consumer confidence. Without these elements, there is no way there is any upside to the economy. 

Sadly, this was stolen from us. Lets start with Consumer Confidence 


1. Consumer Confidence :

When the coronavirus hit, there was substantial fear in the market and affected the consumer confidence. However, the country had competent and calm Health Minister that quickly step forward, took control, instill calmness for the people allaying their fears. As a result, most people still went about their daily activities. 

Sadly, looking at the situation today, I am sure most would have noticed the huge gap as well as the fear surrounding the situation. The numbers in Malaysia increased substantially and now it would appear everywhere to be affected compared to just a concentrated cluster. As a result consumer confidence is very much affected now. Retail malls visitation traffic has fallen substantially, public spaces and offices has seen much reduced interactions. On top of that, manufacturing sector is affected on two fronts namely demand side (customer) and supply side (raw materials or components / parts from China)

Sectors affected : 


  • Tourism - Hotel, attractions, theme parks, flight and travel
  • Retail -  Shopping mall, retail or luxury brands  
  • Manufacturing - those heavily reliant on China for raw materials or components parts supply

The reason why US is facing such sharp selldown apart from the oil plunge, the number 1 primary reason is due to the coronavirus having spread to US shores and resulted in high numbers of death and positive cases. When this first exploded in China and predominantly Asia / South East countries, US market was still buoyant with record highs being made. Some pundits even accused the pandemic (today, finally it is announced by WHO as a pandemic) as overplayed, exaggerated and fear mongering. 

Image result for trump on coronavirus meme

President of the United States, Mr Trump aka. POTUS who didnt even seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation happily downplayed the whole phenomenon whilst confidently saying it will just disappear, go away or a miracle vaccine will be found.

Image result for xi jinping coronavirus

Coming back, the market in US has a delayed reaction and the selloff now intensified due to the laggard in movement. This coupled with the oil plunge amplified the force of selloff. Clearly, on display it also because of the reactive attitude of the world superpower which affected everyone including US itself. China being the second largest superpower is in no part innocent and every much as guilty due to the cover up by Wuhan Govt officials and slow reaction which allowed it to spiral out of control. By the time President Xi took action it was close to 3 months since rumours or cases was first reported. Whistle blowers were warned and reprimanded. 




Image result for mbs putin

Oil plunge - was it not simply a tug of ego between Prince MBS and Russia's President Putin? These people have absolutely no regard to the impact of their actions in the larger context of things. There are no ordinary people, they wield considerable influence simply because of their ability to control vast amount of finite resources which is required by ordinary people on a daily basis. 

In hindsight, the entire episode to large extent is the responsibility of human action, power play by leaders and incompetent, selfish bureaucrats which failed to understand the magnitude of their actions. Where does this lead us? Complete erosion of consumer confidence to spend as survival & self preservation is the only main concern.


2. Investor Confidence :

Investor confidence stems from conviction in the market and its ability to maintain growth over a substantial period of time. There is stability in government, strong fundamental laws that protect investors' rights and clarity in policies. None of which exist in Malaysia at this moment in time. 

This backdoor government shenanigans took away the most important thing in Malaysia, the fundamental freedom of democracy and respect of mandate of the people. If midway through, a democratically elected government can just flip by virtues of politicians switching parties and orchestrating a coup, how can foreigners be certain that an elected government will have the stability of the 5 years period before another round of election? The meaning of election in itself cease to exist. If foreign funds do not come into our country, the only one investing in our market will be EPF, KWAP, Tabung Haji and local retailers / institutions. There wont be sufficient volume and firepower to support the market. 

Image result for panic sell

No one knows the bottom but do not panic sell.

As mentioned before, focus on Dividend yield and earnings growth as both metrics can sustain share price. Below are our considerations, follow these 6 parameters when choosing the stocks to enter :
  • good DY (consistent track record, not one off)
  • has business exposure overseas and local (preferable overseas ex China ) 
  • strong cash flow and cash reserve with minimal debt / liabilities be it short term or long term 
  • no links to political personalities, parties or govermentt contracts 
  • business clients are need base demand instead of luxury demand  
  • good solid management reputation (no hanky panky)
We previously shared the following stocks as our favourite :



  1. CCK
  2. OCK
  3. RCE Capital
  4. DKSH
  5. Riverstone Holdings
We would like to add more to the list with the fall in share price and increase in attractiveness in valuation. We are starting to find some value in foreign source of income which are less affected by local domestic political issues on top of the virus and oil plunge. Unlike others who are chasing rubber glove counters with sky high valuation, the only glove counter we have is the one above. Others we like are:

  1. Pintaras Jaya
  2. GCB
  3. MFCB

We need to regain the confidence especially in our ability to read the market and trusting the fundamental economic valuation to brave through this selldown. The moment we lose confidence in ourselves and holdings, we will be subject to the same panic selling attitude. Remember that Health Minister, stay cool and collected in the face of a pandemic.  

Image result for dzulkefly ahmad coronavirus


Please stay tune as we have been doing some serious investing and will be looking to call more FA stocks in the coming future.

_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 

Image result for politicians meme





  3 people like this.
 
Erudite The big short, fav movie of minw
28/03/2020 6:07 PM

(Tradeview 2020) Guidance In A Bear Market, Correction or Selldown (CCK, OCK, RCE Capital, DKSH & Riverstone Holdings Ltd)

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Thu, 5 Mar 2020, 11:41 AM



Image result for share market meltdown

Dear fellow readers, 

Once again, these writings are just my humble highlights (not recommendation), feel free to have some intellectual discourse on this. You can reach me at :


Website / Blog : 
http://www.tradeview.my/

or Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com
__________________________________________________________

Image result for malaysia politics muhyiddin

Image result for covid 19

Image result for opec + russia

I think the pictures above speak a thousand words. I shall not dwell into it any deeper.  We received a lot of personal messages asking whether should they cut loss or average down or invest more in today's climate. Some even ask me will KLCI collapse as it enters the bear market territory with recession on the way. 


The concerns are highly legitimate. After all, these are questions not even AI, Roboadvisors, Unit Trust managers can come close to answering. To be fair to all, I should explain it in 3 folds :

1. No one knows the bottom, and no one knows when it will rebound. 


Essentially, I can conclude that those who champion technical indicators as the holy grail in investing, lost money. Those who follow prominent investor lost money. Those who used margin lost even more money. Those who follow political network / insider cable new lost money. 


However, those who are still sustaining or faced minimal loses are those who have strictly abide by Fundamental Analysis (FA) or held Dividend Yielding (DY) stocks. These two metrics are the hallmark of investing. In the past 10 years, we have yet to see KLCI in such a doldrums. Each year we think the worst is over, we can surprised and shock how bad it further becomes. And we conclude this is due to the continuous fall of Domestic Direct Investment (DDI) - This will be our story for another day.


So does that mean now it's the best time to collect all high DY defensive stock with good FA? My answer is yes but follow these 6 parameters when choosing the stocks to enter :
  • good DY (consistent track record, not one off)
  • has business exposure overseas and local (preferable overseas ex China ) 
  • strong cash flow and cash reserve with minimal debt / liabilities be it short term or long term 
  • no links to political personalities, parties or govermentt contracts 
  • business clients are need base demand instead of luxury demand  
  • good solid management reputation (no hanky panky)

2. How to know the direction of the local Market? 


Always observe Global Indicators :
  • US market (S&P 500, Dow, US Election heating up etc)
  • Observe oil market, OPEC policy guidance
  • Observe Japanese Yen (safe havens)
  • Observe gold price (safe havens)
These are the indicators to show us somewhat the direction whether we can bullish or conservative in investing. 


3. Buy when others are fearful, sell when others are bullish. 


Normally true if the fundamental of the economy remain status quo and due to the external factor. Sadly, today Malaysia is facing the perfect storm. Namely : external headwinds of Covid 19 and US uncertainty + local domestic political crisis (which will prolong) 


Lastly, if you have spare cash, set some aside for rainy days. For excess cash which will not impair your existing obligations, can start putting into the counters we have shared with all in the past amongst those would be CCK, OCK, RCE Capital, DKSH and Riverstone Holdings Limited.


Please stay tune as we have been doing some serious investing and will be looking to call more FA stocks in the coming future.
_______________________________________________________________

Telegram channel : https://telegram.me/tradeview101
Website / Blog : http://www.tradeview.my/
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/tradeview101/or 
Email me to sign up as private exclusive subscriber : tradeview101@gmail.com


Food for thought: 


Image result for everyone's an expert


  VenFx likes this.
 

(Tradeview 2019) - Full Year Update 33% Gain YTD for Value Picks as at 10th December 2019

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Tue, 10 Dec 2019, 12:30 PM


Image result for 2019 2020 look back


Dear fellow Readers,

2019 is ending and 2020 is only a few weeks away. Whilst everyone said 2019 was a bad year, indeed, it was in terms of the market that has fallen from 1670 last year to 1560 today, we are proud to share our return YTD on public record is 33% YTD. This is excluding dividends gain. Of course, the number of shares we have called and hold is much lesser as well compared to past years which is natural in the case of large market uncertainty and fear.

As in the past, our practice of recording Tradeview calls are public. This report will show the monthly record for the full year 2019. The purpose is for transparency and accountability. This is the updated results as of end of 10th December 2019. 


For those keen to be a subscriber or follower, there are several links below





This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. Feel free to cross check my public comments / article posting date as reference for the calls. Some are calls, some are articles on value picks but all are documented.
_________________________________________________________________________ 

*The picks from when it was call until 10th December 2019 : (Gains exclude div) 

1. TM - Called on 16th December 2018 @ below RM 2.40 vs Present RM 3.82 (59.2% Gain) 

2. PPHB - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 0.50 vs Present RM 1.08 (216% Gain) 

3. DKSH - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 2.21 vs Present RM 2.62 (18.5% Gain) 

4. BJ Food - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.32 vs Present RM 1.41 (6.4% Gain) 

5. Perstima - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 4.75 vs Present RM 4.20 (-12% Loss) 

6. Elsoft Research - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.17 vs Present RM 0.845 (-28% Loss) 

7. HIL Industries Bhd - Called on 4th March 2019 @ RM 0.52 vs Present RM 0.55 (5.8% Gain) New call 2019

8. Pecca Group Bhd - Called on 6th March 2019 @ RM 1.07 vs Present RM 1.20 (12.1% Gain) New call 2019

9. Unimech Group Bhd - Called on 8th March 2019 @ RM 1.03 vs Present RM 1.25 (21% Gain) New call 2019

New Watchlist for 2H 2019 : MSM, Mflour and GenM

Our Average Portfolio Gain Year-To-Date (Based on equal shareholding & excluding dividend gain) : 33% Gain beating the KLCI Index Return of -7% Loss  (We start counting from 16th Dec 2018 at 1670 till today to be fair) 

As of now, it is 7/9 winners against losers. Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 4 ways to follow Tradeview Group. I usually share my calls with :

1. Private Exclusive Subscribers first
2. Website / Blog / Facebook second
3. Telegram Public Channel third
4. Forum last 

If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching or value investing guidance or to be private exclusive subscriber, feel free to contact me at tradeview101@gmail.com to sign up. Thanks. 

Regards, 

Tradeview 

**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of all the counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My private subscribers would know. 
  zhangliang likes this.
 
zhangliang Thank you
26/12/2019 9:02 PM

(Tradeview 2019) - Value Picks Monthly Update as at 10th August 2019

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sat, 10 Aug 2019, 2:50 PM


Image result for report card


Dear fellow Readers,


As in the past years, I will be continuing the practice of recording my calls for the public. The report will show the monthly record for year 2019. The purpose is for transparency and accountability. This is the updated results as of end of 6th August. 

For those keen to be a subscriber or follower, there are several links below





This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. Feel free to cross check my public comments / article posting date as reference for the calls. Some are calls, some are articles on value picks but all are documented.
_________________________________________________________________________ 

*The picks from when it was call until 10th August 2019 : (Gains exclude div) 

1. TM - Called on 16th December 2018 @ below RM 2.40 vs Present RM 4.09 (70.4% Gain) 

2. PPHB - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 0.50 vs Present RM 0.575 (15% Gain) 

3. DKSH - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 2.21 vs Present RM 2.550 (15.3% Gain) 

4. BJ Food - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.32 vs Present RM 1.63 (23.4% Gain) 

5. Perstima - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 4.75 vs Present RM 4.8 (3.2% Gain) 

6. Elsoft Research - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.17 vs Present RM 0.905 (-22.6% Loss) 

7. HIL Industries Bhd - Called on 4th March 2019 @ RM 0.52 vs Present RM 0.50 (-4% Loss) New call 2019

8. Pecca Group Bhd - Called on 6th March 2019 @ RM 1.07 vs Present RM 1.19 (11.2% Gain) New call 2019

9. Unimech Group Bhd - Called on 8th March 2019 @ RM 1.03 vs Present RM 1.23 (19.4% Gain) New call 2019

New Watchlist for 2H 2019 : MSM, Mflour and GenM

Our Average Portfolio Gain Year-To-Date (Based on equal shareholding & excluding dividend gain) : 16.3% Gain beating the KLCI Index Return of -4% Loss  (We start counting from 16th Dec 2018 at 1670 till today to be fair) 

As of now, it is 7/9 winners against losers. Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 4 ways to follow Tradeview Group. I usually share my calls with :

1. Private Exclusive Subscribers first
2. Website / Blog / Facebook second
3. Telegram Public Channel third
4. Forum last 

If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching or value investing guidance or to be private exclusive subscriber, feel free to contact me at tradeview101@gmail.com to sign up. Thanks. 

Regards, 

Tradeview 

**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of all the counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My private subscribers would know. 
  2 people like this.
 
enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ now this is what I call ACCOUNTABILITY
11/08/2019 11:43 AM
VenFx Msm in 2H 2019 ? Good !
11/08/2019 11:59 AM

(Tradeview 2019) - Value Picks Monthly Update as at 6 April 2019

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sat, 6 Apr 2019, 11:48 AM


Image result for report card


Dear fellow Readers,



As in the past years, I will be continuing the practice of recording my calls for the public. The report will show the monthly record for year 2019. The purpose is for transparency and accountability. This is the updated results as of end of 6th April. 

For those keen to be a subscriber or follower, there are several links below





This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. Feel free to cross check my public comments / article posting date as reference for the calls. Some are calls, some are articles on value picks but all are documented.
_________________________________________________________________________ 

*The picks from when it was call until 11th March 2019 : (Gains exclude div) 

1. TM - Called on 16th December 2018 @ below RM 2.40 vs Present RM 3.10 (29% Gain) 

2. PPHB - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 0.50 vs Present RM 0.605 (21% Gain) 

3. DKSH - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 2.21 vs Present RM 2.30 (4% Gain) 

4. BJ Food - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.32 vs Present RM 1.67 (26.5% Gain) 

5. Perstima - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 4.75 vs Present RM 4.92 (3.5% Gain) 

6. Elsoft Research - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.17 vs Present RM 1.00 (-15% Loss) 

7. HIL Industries Bhd - Called on 4th March 2019 @ RM 0.52 vs Present RM 0.59 (13% Gain) New call 2019

8. Pecca Group Bhd - Called on 6th March 2019 @ RM 1.07 vs Present RM 1.06 (-1% Loss) New call 2019



9. Unimech Group Bhd - Called on 8th March 2019 @ RM 1.03 vs Present RM 1.14 (10.2% Gain) New call 2019

Our Average Portfolio Gain Year-To-Date (Based on equal shareholding & excluding dividend gain) : 10.6% Gain beating the KLCI Index Return of 0.5%  (We start counting from 16th Dec 2018 till today to be fair) 

As of now, it is 7/9 winners against losers. Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 4 ways to follow Tradeview Group. I usually share my calls with :

1. Private Exclusive Subscribers first
2. Website / Blog / Facebook second
3. Telegram Public Channel third
4. Forum last 

If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching or value investing guidance or to be private exclusive subscriber, feel free to contact me at tradeview101@gmail.com to sign up. Thanks. 

Regards, 

Tradeview 

**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of all the counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My private subscribers would know. 
  zhangliang likes this.
 
VenFx Wow ! Very consistently
06/04/2019 3:12 PM
Choivo Capital One front runner after another.

One telegram group after another to fry and dump.
06/04/2019 3:38 PM
UnicornP Not the best stocks you could've owned. Be more radical although consistent.
06/04/2019 3:40 PM
zhangliang wah mad dog Choivo is barking again? haha reflect ur own record before barking. Ur unitholders paid ur management fees for losing their funds -20% in 2018???
06/04/2019 5:02 PM

(Tradeview 2019) - Value Picks Monthly Update as at 11 March 2019

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Mon, 11 Mar 2019, 6:14 PM


Image result for report card


Dear fellow Readers,

As in the past years, I will be continuing the practice of recording my calls for the public. The report will show the monthly record for year 2019. The purpose is for transparency and accountability. This is the updated results as of end of January 31. 

For those keen to be a subscriber or follower, there are several links below





This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. Feel free to cross check my public comments / article posting date as reference for the calls. Some are calls, some are articles on value picks but all are documented.
_________________________________________________________________________ 

*The picks from when it was call until 11th March 2019 : (Gains exclude div) 

1. TM - Called on 16th December 2018 @ below RM 2.40 vs Present RM 3.21 (33.8% Gain) 

2. PPHB - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 0.50 vs Present RM 0.57 (14% Gain) 

3. DKSH - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 2.21 vs Present RM 2.46 (11.3% Gain) 

4. BJ Food - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.32 vs Present RM 1.50 (13.6% Gain) 

5. Perstima - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 4.75 vs Present RM 4.88 (2.7% Gain) 

6. Elsoft Research - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.17 vs Present RM 1.02 (-13% Loss) 

7. HIL Industries Bhd - Called on 4th March 2019 @ RM 0.52 vs Present RM 0.55 (4.8% Gain) New call 2019

8. Pecca Group Bhd - Called on 6th March 2019 @ RM 1.07 vs Present RM 1.06 (-1% Loss) New call 2019


Our Average Portfolio Gain Year-To-Date (Based on equal shareholding & excluding dividend gain) : 8.25% Gain beating the KLCI Index Return of 0.5%  (We start counting from 16th Dec 2018 till today to be fair) 

As of now, it is 6/8 winners against losers. Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 4 ways to follow Tradeview Group. I usually share my calls with :

1. Private Exclusive Subscribers first
2. Website / Blog / Facebook second
3. Telegram Public Channel third
4. Forum last 

If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching or value investing guidance or to be private exclusive subscriber, feel free to contact me at tradeview101@gmail.com to sign up. Thanks. 

Regards, 

Tradeview 

**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of all the counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My private subscribers would know. 
  4 people like this.
 

(Tradeview 2019) - Value Picks Monthly Update as at January

Author: tradeview   |  Publish date: Sun, 3 Feb 2019, 2:56 PM


 

Image result for report card

Dear fellow Readers,
 
As in the past years, I will be continuing the practice of recording my calls for the public. The report will show the monthly record for year 2019. The purpose is for transparency and accountability. This is the updated results as of end of January 31. 
 
For those keen to be a subscriber or follower, there are several links below
 
 
 
 
 
This is just a simple periodical report to keep track of the progress of my picks for readers. Feel free to cross check my public comments / article posting date as reference for the calls. Some are calls, some are articles on value picks but all are documented.
_________________________________________________________________________ 
 
*The picks from when it was call until 31st January 2019 : (Gains exclude div) 
 
1. TM - Called on 16th December 2018 @ below RM 2.40 vs Present RM 2.91 (21% Gain) 
 
2. PPHB - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 0.50 vs Present RM 0.49 (-2% Loss) 
 
3. DKSH - Called on 16th December 2018  @ RM 2.21 vs Present RM 2.43 (9.9% Gain) 
 
4. BJ Food - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.32 vs Present RM 1.34 (1.5% Gain) 
 
5. Perstima - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 4.75 vs Present RM 4.88 (2.7% Gain) 
 
6. Elsoft Research - Called on 16th December 2018 @ RM 1.17 vs Present RM 1.07 (-9.3% Loss) 
 
 

Our Average Portfolio Gain Year-To-Date (Based on equal shareholding & excluding dividend gain) : 3.97% Gain beating the KLCI Index Return of 2.6%  (We start counting from 16th Dec 2018 till today to be fair) 
 
As of now, it is 4/6 winners against losers. Should you are keen to follow my trades, there are 4 ways to follow Tradeview Group. I usually share my calls with :
 
1. Private Exclusive Subscribers first
2. Website / Blog / Facebook second
3. Telegram Public Channel third
4. Forum last 
 
If you are keen to have the earliest possible call picks or FA/TA coaching or value investing guidance or to be private exclusive subscriber, feel free to contact me at tradeview101@gmail.com to sign up. Thanks. 
 
Regards, 
 
Tradeview 
 
**Some counters I may have spotted at lower entry price but I displayed the call price based on my first mention in public forums. Also, of all the counters above, some counters I have taken profit, some are still holding, some I have cut loss. My private subscribers would know. 

 

  4 people like this.
 
zhangliang No more QL in 2019 list anymore
03/02/2019 3:23 PM
newbie5354_ Why got loss ctr(Elsoft)? Is mkt very bad?
03/02/2019 3:33 PM
Erudite thank you
03/02/2019 5:11 PM


APPS
I3 Messenger
Individual or Group chat with anyone on I3investor
MQ Trader
Earn MQ Points while trading with MQ Traders Group
MQ Affiliate
Earn side income from MQ Affiliate Program
 
 

407  347  543  880 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 AT 0.10+0.02 
 SAPNRG 0.11+0.01 
 JAG 0.09+0.01 
 AIRASIA 0.84+0.015 
 CAREPLS 1.44+0.25 
 AAX 0.110.00 
 HLT 0.845+0.15 
 K1 0.475+0.03 
 ARMADA 0.255+0.005 
 HIBISCS 0.66-0.01 

FEATURED POSTS

1. MQ Trader - Introduction to MQ Trader Affiliate Program MQ Trader Announcement!
2. MQ Affiliate – A smarter way to earn more rewards MQ Trader Affiliate Program
3. MQ Affiliate – How to become an effective affiliate MQ Trader Affiliate Program
4. MQ Affiliate – Upgrading to Affiliate Partner MQ Trader Affiliate Program
Partners & Brokers