Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Sun, 10 Jan 2021, 10:10 PM

 

PALM OIL COMPANIES WILL REPORT FANTASTIC RESULTS IN FEB 2021 DUE TO INCREASING PRICES & ALSO INCREASING SALES

Author: calvintaneng   |  Publish date: Sun, 10 Jan 2021, 10:10 PM


Date
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
01
PH
NT
PH
2,472.50
PH
2,366.00
2,396.00
NT
2,885.50
2,914.00
PH
3,501.50
02
3,053.00
PH
2,394.50
2,454.00
NT
2,374.00
2,420.50
PH
2,885.50
2,841.00
3,209.50
3,485.50
03
3,056.50
2,658.50
2,377.50
2,366.00
PH
2,389.50
2,414.00
2,822.50
2,936.50
NT
3,304.00
3,502.00
04
NT
2,696.00
2,432.00
NT
2,068.50
2,389.50
NT
2,855.00
2,916.50
PH
3,354.00
3,601.00
05
PH
2,790.50
2,517.00
PH
2,037.00
2,379.50
PH
2,847.00
NT
2,857.50
3,357.00
NT
06
3,064.00
2,873.50
2,491.00
2,334.50
2,025.50
NT
2,422.50
2,852.00
PH
2,906.00
3,424.00
PH
07
3,061.50
2,885.00
NT
2,356.50
PH
PH
2,423.00
2,853.50
2,904.50
2,950.00
NT
3,640.00
08
3,043.50
NT
PH
2,420.00
2,036.50
PH
2,438.00
NT
2,916.00
2,980.00
PH
3,645.00
09
3,084.50
PH
2,274.00
2,432.00
NT
2,413.00
2,451.50
PH
2,899.00
3,004.00
3,343.50
3,622.00
10
3,111.00
2,859.50
2,366.50
2,355.50
PH
2,404.50
2,445.50
2,846.00
2,874.50
NT
3,412.50
3,647.00
11
NT
2,774.50
2,345.50
NT
2,036.50
2,390.00
NT
2,834.50
2,875.00
PH
3,436.00
3,662.00
12
PH
2,703.00
2,323.00
PH
2,021.50
2,387.00
PH
2,781.50
NT
3,050.50
3,462.50
NT
13
3,093.00
2,694.50
2,307.00
2,326.00
2,037.00
NT
2,454.50
2,858.50
PH
3,042.50
3,500.00
PH
14
3,033.00
2,683.00
NT
2,284.50
2,030.50
PH
2,492.00
2,784.00
2,905.50
3,043.00
NT
3,636.50
15
3,014.50
NT
PH
2,295.50
2,081.00
2,369.00
2,541.50
NT
2,931.00
3,019.00
PH
3,622.00
16
2,985.00
PH
2,280.50
2,290.00
NT
2,403.50
2,607.00
PH
PH
3,000.50
3,501.50
3,633.00
17
2,971.50
2,709.00
2,322.50
2,291.50
PH
2,415.00
2,630.00
2,791.00
2,982.50
NT
3,511.50
3,604.50
18
NT
2,708.50
2,300.50
NT
2,138.50
2,419.50
NT
2,773.00
3,053.50
PH
3,498.00
3,648.50
19
PH
2,694.50
2,264.50
PH
2,183.00
2,483.00
PH
2,830.00
NT
2,931.00
3,581.50
NT
20
2,963.00
2,649.00
2,311.00
2,308.50
2,182.00
NT
2,703.50
PH
PH
2,954.50
3,516.50
PH
21
2,931.50
2,667.00
NT
2,171.00
2,191.00
PH
2,714.00
2,785.50
3,074.00
3,028.00
NT
3,651.00
22
2,974.00
NT
PH
2,131.00
2,208.00
2,486.00
2,728.50
NT
2,951.00
3,047.00
PH
3,661.00
23
2,991.50
PH
2,316.00
2,131.50
NT
2,502.00
2,739.00
PH
2,933.00
3,049.50
3,441.00
3,701.50
24
2,984.00
2,645.00
2,370.50
2,162.00
PH
2,515.00
2,795.00
2,776.00
2,841.50
NT
3,451.50
3,835.50
25
NT
2,545.00
2,429.50
NT
PH
2,470.00
NT
2,751.50
2,879.50
PH
3,429.00
-
26
PH
2,509.50
2,423.50
PH
PH
2,460.50
PH
2,730.00
NT
3,134.00
3,429.50
NT
27
PH
2,486.50
2,445.00
2,049.00
2,254.50
NT
2,791.50
2,784.00
PH
3,185.00
3,437.50
PH
28
2,736.00
2,413.50
NT
2,046.50
2,273.00
PH
2,702.50
2,822.50
2,915.50
3,243.50
NT
3,780.50
29
2,777.50
NT
PH
2,058.00
2,283.00
2,391.00
2,677.50
NT
2,909.50
PH
PH
3,788.00
30
2,689.00
 
2,482.00
2,096.50
NT
2,392.00
2,719.50
PH
2,857.50
3,250.00
NT
NT
31
2,680.00
 
2,392.50
 
PH
 
-
-
 
NT
 
NT
Average
3,013.50
2,714.50
2,382.00
2,299.00
2,074.00
2,411.50
2,519.00
2,815.00
2,924.00
2,979.50
3,422.00
3,620.50

 

FROM THE ABOVE FIGURES WE SEE THAT OCTOBER, NOVEMBER & DECEMBER 2020 PRICES ARE NOW FROM RM3,000 To RM3,600 RANGE

 

WITH PRODUCTION COST FROM RM1400 TO RM1700 ALL PALM OIL COMPANIES EXPECTED TO MAKE FROM 120% TO RMRM150% PROFITS

 

Malaysia's December palm oil exports up 20.4% — AmSpec Agri

Mei Mei Chu

Jan 9 2021

Malaysia's December palm oil exports up 20.4% — AmSpec Agri

 

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 9): Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for December rose 20.35% to 1,709,084 tonnes from 1,420,103 tonnes shipped during November, independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said last week.

 

Prices increased from Rm3000 to Rm3600 a ton

Exports increased by ?

1,402,103 tonnes to 1,709,084 tonnes

or up by 306,981 tonnes

At Rm3,600 per ton that equals to extra profit of Rm1,105,131,600

Like Glove ASP Palm Oil now enjoy extra Rm1.1 BILLION PROFITS IN FEB 2021 QTR JUST BY INCREASING ITS SALE PRICES

 

AND THIS NEW YEAR OF 2021 WE ARE WITNESSING EVEN NEW HIGH FOR CPO AT RM4,000 BENCH MARK

So why Palm Oil Prices still down?

1) Pre-Occupation with Medical Glove Bull Run

2) Enamored with Vaccine Hype? Pharmaniaga supplying Medical products to Govt Hospitals only get a razor thin margin of 2% profit. How to compete with Palm Oil now with more than 100% Net Net Profit?

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

NOTE: I DID NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK FOR NOW. THIS IS AN OBSERVATION FROM POSTED FACTS & FIGURES

  Be the first to like this.
 
greedy44444 FGV ??
11/01/2021 12:22 AM
calvintaneng Fgv if no price capped by Felda should have gone above Rm1.50 by now

See Spore Wilmar already gone above Rm5.00

Spore palm oil penny stock like goldenagri also jumped 30% already

Only Malaysia Palm oil stocks remain LAGGARDS due to pressing down by dirty IB bank neutral calls
11/01/2021 4:03 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ BDI rose ... calvin recommended Maybulk
Oil price rebounded ... calvin recommended O&G counters
ECERD project launched ... calvin recommende many counters with lands along the route
NFCP project launched ... calvin recommended Netx
CPO price rose .... calvin recommended planyation stocks.


What a mad-hatter indeed?
11/01/2021 4:15 PM
calvintaneng What a mad hatter like 3iii

We are now in palm oil bull run
11/01/2021 11:15 PM
chkhooju I don't see any bulls, just bears running around!
11/01/2021 11:38 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ The 2 jokers of 2020: conman calvin and dishonest raider provided many valuable lessons for newbies on how not to make money in the stock market.

When the tides rolled out, you can see clearly those who have been stripped naked in Netx.
12/01/2021 8:37 AM
stockraider This silly conman 3iii ask you all to chase hartalega with rm 26.50 at the height of gloves bull run loh!!

Never believe this conman 3iii he always ask u to buy high loh!

Calvin & raider always advocates buy with margin of safety that u should trust loh!!

Even Netx already documented raider make 2 new Myv....within a short period loading up on Netx excess Rights mah...!!


Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jan 12, 2021 8:37 AM | Report Abuse

The 2 jokers of 2020: conman calvin and dishonest raider provided many valuable lessons for newbies on how not to make money in the stock market.

When the tides rolled out, you can see clearly those who have been stripped naked in Netx.
12/01/2021 8:52 AM
stockraider It is time to buy up plantaion mah...!!
12/01/2021 8:53 AM
calvintaneng Next month all palm oil stocks will be reporting very good profits one by one
12/01/2021 10:57 AM
calvintaneng JAYA TIASA PALM OIL AVERAGE AGE NOW 11 YEARS OLD

FRUIT YIELD AT ITS BEST YEARS IS NOW!!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-11-15...
12/01/2021 11:54 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ calvintaneng
calvintaneng
From Singapore Investing experience Advanced Risk profile Low
Due to repeated abuse posts, this account has been suspended from posting to the i3investor portal until 29/01/2021. Please refer to the Terms and Conditions of Use and Community Standards of this portal.
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Thank you Admin of i3.
12/01/2021 6:31 PM

FCPO JAN 2021 TOUCHED NEW HIGH OF RM3,880 MEANS YEAR 2021 CPO PRICES WILL BE STILL BULLISH, Calvin Tan Research

Author: calvintaneng   |  Publish date: Wed, 30 Dec 2020, 4:03 PM


Dear friends

Yesterday Soyoil in USA Crossed USD42.00 to new recent high

 

Today CPO got another booster & touched Rm3,880!

 

See

 

WHY?

WHAT ARE THE REASONS FOR SUCH BULLISHNESS?

THESE ARE THE ANSWERS

 

1) CHINA EXPERIENCED MANY SUPER TYPHOONS WIPING OUT ITS CROPS THIS YEAR

SO MORE BUYING FROM USA & BRAZIL

 

2) LAST YEAR SWINE FLU WIPED OUT PIGS IN CHINA. SO THIS YEAR LOTS OF SOYBEAN MEAL  NEEDED TO REGROW THE SWINE HERD

 

3) DROUGHT IN USA & HURRICANE IN IOWA CAUSED LESS SAYBEAN HARVEST

 

4) DROUGHT IN SOUTH AMERICA & BLACK SEA CAUSED LESS PRODUCTION

 

5) ALSO FLOODS IN INDIA, THAILAND, VIETNAM, GREECE AND MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD ALSO DESTROYED CROPS

 

NOW THAT THE WORLD IS SHORT OF VEGE OIL THERE IS A PANIC BUY

 

FROM JUST IN TIME PURCHASE MANY HAVE TURNED "JUST IN CASE" PURCHASE LEADING TO MORE DEMAND OVER SUPLLY

 

AND THIS SUPPLY WILL BE EVEN MORE ACUTE AS RIGHT NOW IN BRAZIL & ARGENTINA AS WELL AS BOLIVIA, URUGUAY & PARAGUAY ALL EXPERIENCED DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THE SAME TIME

 

SO HOLD TIGHT TO ALL PALM OIL SHARES AS BULL RUN IS A GIVEN

 

ONLY HOW FAR AND HOW HIGH PALM OIL BULL CAN REACH IS YET AHEAD

 

BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

Disclaimer

All Information Provided Here Should Be Treated For Informational Purposes Only. It Is Solely Reflecting Author's Personal Views And The Author Should Not Be Held Liable For Any Actions Taken In Reliance On Information Contained Herein

 

SEE

 

  4 people like this.
 
calvintaneng Jonathan Keung
Calvintaneng : yup agreed but most of the planter's stock still lack lustre not moving unlike the gloves darling days
30/12/2020 4:06 PM
X
calvintaneng

Jonathan

Gloves actually gone down when wuhan kena virus in Dec 2019

And Supermax was Rm1.47 i think in Dec 2019

3 months later Supermax even fell to Rm1.30 as nobody was bullish

I only bought Supermax at a high price of Rm1.73 in April 2020 if compare to March low of Rm1.30

Of course only on hindsight now Rm1.73 was actually very cheap (but in April when I bought Supermax at Rm1.73 I thought price already up by 43 sen higher as compared to March Rm1.30 low

So is palm oil now

Look back by End 2021 then SEE (SEE if people are as bullish on Palm oil stocks by then just like they are so excited about gloves & vaccine hype
30/12/2020 10:14 PM
30/12/2020 10:27 PM
Seeyounoup US blocks imports of palm oil from Sime Darby Plantation.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/772323/us-blocks-imports-of-palm-oil-from-sime-darby-plantation

so USA want to block everything from Malaysia la ? C C B
30/12/2020 11:06 PM
calvintaneng no problem

Jtiasa is 100% Rspo

no child labour
no forced labour

Also Main market for cpo is not Usa but China and India

China Rm1.39 billion population
india Rm1.35 billion population

Huge demand
31/12/2020 12:59 AM
calvintaneng Very happy day

Soybean Usd13 crossed

Cpo will end 2020 at Record High

Can look forward to excellent results for all palm oil shares by Feb 2021 results
31/12/2020 7:20 AM
Seeyounoup US blocks imports of palm oil from Sime Darby Plantation.
31/12/2020 9:11 AM
stockraider Why the rally on cpo is sustainable leh ??

If u check the cpo spot & future from Jan 2021 to Dec 2021 all prices are above Rm 3000 until November 2021 & only December 2021 is slightly below Rm 3000 but still consider high at around Rm 2970 per tonnes.

For your info, when palmoil is average rm 2500, all the palmoil plantations make good profit mah...!!

Thus the good profit of palmoil company is sustainable very good & the average palmoil price should easily exceed average rm 3000 for 2021 mah...!!

Like calvin sifu says there are Great Safety In Palm Oil Shares loh!


Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Cpo reaching Rm4000

Moving up to Rm4500 and Rm5000 range due to la nina

Hide in great safety of palm oil shares

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Happy morning all

Yesterday Soybean prices in USA closed above Usd13.70 to yet another new high due to very dry weather in South America

La nina is here with uneven weather on earth

Floods in Malaysia will deplete cpo stocks and drought will decimate Soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina

Leading to huge shortfall and panic buying later

Palm oil bull is now on course to run for all the months of 2021
09/01/2021 1:26 PM

CPO Now Rm3,856 near all time high of Year 2,010 at Rm4,000: See How Thplant, Chinteck, MHC plant, TDM & others performed, Calvin Tan Research

Author: calvintaneng   |  Publish date: Sun, 27 Dec 2020, 9:30 PM


Happy News for All Investors of Palm Oil Stocks, 

As of now Fcpo Jan 2021 has reached Rm3,856. Rm4,000 target of Year 2,010 within reach soon

See the 10 year CPO Price Chart Below:

 

 

Do you ever wondered in Year when CPO reached the All Time Record High of Rm4,000 how did Plantation Stocks Performed?

No problem

Dr. Neoh Soon Kean of Dynaquest has compiled all the data in his Yearly Stock Performance Guide (Last Edition March 2015)

And let Calvin type out for all to see

1) Starting with TH PLANT

CRITICAL STOCK PERFORMANCE INFORMATION (page 382)

Year.......Price Range.....Dividend Per Share....Earnings Per Share.

2005......Not listed....................6.6 sen..........6.6 sen

2006......0.70.......1.13..............0.0.................7.6 sen

2007......0.98........1.54.............3.8...............13.00

2008......0.78........1.59.............9.6...............12.5

2009......0.98.........1.48........... 4.7.................9.2

2010......1.17..........1.76...........5.3...............15.3

2011.......1.54..........1.90..........7.8................20.4 sen

2012.......1.60..........2.49.........10.74...............6.3

2013........1.60.........2.00...........3.8.................7.2

2014........1.40.........2.18...........3.6.................4.1

2015........1.53..........1.70..........2.0E...............5.5E

From the chart exactly 10 years ago on Dec 23rd 2010 Fcpo also closed around Rm3,856....after that it went up to touch Rm4,000

We are not expecting things to turn out exactly. But things do rythme

Take a very very careful look at the figures again

After Fcpo rose to Rm3,856 - Rm4,000 region in Year 2010

Results of Year 2011 turned out very spectacularly

See again

2011.......1.54.....1.90.......7.8......20.4 sen

Earnings for year 2011 reached the highest at 20.4 sen

And share price reached a new high of Rm1.90 since listing

CPO Prices as we know turned down gradually after 2011

But THPLANT Increased its dividend to 10.74 sen high in year 2012

 

2012.......1.60.....2.49......10.74........6.3

 

And share price of Thplant gone up even higher to Rm2.49 even though earning weakened to 6.3 sen

THIS IS THE TAIL END OF EUPHORIA WHEN Johnny came lately Plus all Analysts finally turned Bulish at peak prices (very wrong timing  when 99% of every one already know that Thpant share price has gone up from 70 sen listing price to Rm2.49 (UP 255% not inclusive of dividends)

WITH FCPO NOW OVER RM3,850 THPLANT IS STILL A VERY LOW AT 55 SEN LOOKS LIKE A BARGAIN

And no wonder

Data Driven Grand Champion Sifu Dr. Neoh Soon Kean owns lots of Th Plant shares

 

9. Neoh Choo Ee & Company, Sdn. Berhad.... 3,700,000 

Dr. Neoh's own private Company owns 3.7 Million Thplant shares in Top 9

 

27. Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd............. 750,000

Dynaquest Sdn Bhd the Equity Fund managed by Dr. Neoh has 750,000 shares of Thplant

So two funds from Dr. Neoh are in Thplant (out of so many plantation stocks why Th Plant?)

 

2) TDM

Year..............Price Range.............Dividend Per Share..............Earnings Per Share.

2005.....0.11.....0.17......0.0......1.9

2006....0.12.....0,18.......0.0......1.2

2007...0.15....0.39.........0.3.......3.0

2008....0.17....0.45.......0.9........7.5 sen

2009....0.18.....0.30......1.8........4.2

2010....0.26.....0.54......2.0........7.0

2011....0.43.....0.66......2.8........11.00

2012....0.53......0.84......3.1.........6.4

2013....0.54......1.05.....3.7..........2.8

2014....0.65......1.13......1.0.........3.4

2015....0.73.......0.89.....1.2...........3.

See

TDM also reported the Highest profit of 11 sen in year 2011

But price only up from 26 sen low of 2010 to high of 66 sen

Quite spooky?

Many of Calvin's whataspp friends bought TDM around 24 sen to 26 sen recently

After TDM got its good earnings in Year 2011 it increased its dividends to 

3.1 sen from 2.8 sen in  year 2012 and Share price reached higher to 84 sen

Again it increased its dividend from 3.1 sen to 3.70 even though earnings have tapered off

And Year 2013 high was Rm1.05

The highest was reached by Year 2014 at Rm1.13

So from low of 26 sen in year 2010 to highest of 2014 at Rm1.13 TDM Investors would have made A Whopping 334%!

BUT THOSE WHO FINALLY GOT CONVINCED AND CHASED THE TAIL END OF RM1.13?

What happened to All Who Bought In Peak Euphoria when All Media, Sifu, Analysts, IB Banks finally turned Bullish?

For now all are neutral (SO CALVIN & FRIENDS ARE SAFE)

3) CHINTECK

2005........4.76.....5.20......DPS 23.8.....38.1 (EPS)

2006........4.98.....6.00......21.6.............24.1

2007........5.10.....7.85.......27...............40.9

2008........4.50......9.10......51.8............105

2009........5.60.......7.85......26.3...........49.6

2010........7.22........8.99......30.............52.9

2011........7.90.......9.25.......36.00........80.80

2012........8.60.......9.30........30............55.9

2013........8.80........9.85......19.............25.5

2014........8.90.........9.98.... .34.5.........40.2

2015........9.19..........9.30......28 E.......39.5E

 

From all the figures we see that Chinteck has always been doing well

Year 2011 it registered earnings of 80.80 sen

But if you look at year 2008 Chinteck earned even more at Rm105 per share

Why so high profit

Chinteck not only in Palm Oil. Chinteck JV with Muiprop to build Houses & University in Bandar Springhill

Now Chinteck  has  3,000 Freehold landbanks in Bandar Sri Sendayan with book value of less than 50 sen psf

CHINTECK COULD ONE DAY FOLLOW IOI, SIME DARBY & OTHERS GOING INTO REAL ESTATE

Matrix bought lands from Felda to build houses in Bandar Sri Sendayan

So Chinteck has HUGE Potential like Matrix

One Surprise is KSeng is in Top 30 holders of Chinteck

7. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
UBS AG Hong Kong for Keck Seng (Malaysia) Berhad
2,784,375 
 
Keck Seng is in Top 7 of Chinteck with 2.78 Million shares
 
So People see KSeng undervalue but KSeng Boss sees Chinteck even more undervalue!
 
 
4) MHC Plantations

 

2010.........0.45.....0.80...........0.9.........8.8

2011.........0.67.....1.03.............1.2........14.5

2012.........0.86......1.45.............1.5........8.4

2013..........0.99......1.19............2.3.........3.9

2014..........0.89.......1.30............2.............6.7

2015..........0.95........1.05............2.3E.......6.5E

 

Again we see Earnings in year 2011 was 14.5 sen & share price crossed Rm1.00 to Rm1.03

Next year Mhc Plant rose again to the high of Rm1.45

MHC GOT 2 MORE OOMPH FACTORS

1) IT IS TOP HOLDERS OF CEPATWAWASAN

2) ITS FREEHOLD LANDS IN PERAK ONLY LESS THAN RM5,000 PER ACRE

MHC PLANT LANDS ARE AS VALUABLE AS BPLANT

 

AFrom here we see very high CPO  prices in Year 2010.  All Plantation stocks then Reported the Highest Earnings for Year 2011 after Fcpo reached the high of Rm4,000

 

What do we learn from here?

1) FCPO Prices Run Ahead First in year 2010 while Prices still lag behind (People still unsure & skeptical of Cpo bull run)

2) Finally Good Profits reported by All

Chinteck (Negeri Sembilan)

MHC Plant (Perak)

TDM (Trengganu)

ThPlant (Tganu, Sarawak & Sabah)

SO PRICE ROSE UP IN YEAR 2011

 

3) By 2012 CPO prices Started to Turn Down BUT SHARE PRICES STILL SURGE UP ONE OR TWO YEARS LONGER

We see All the People FINALLY CAPITULATED AND TURNED VERY BULLISH & CHASED PALM OIL SHARES INTO EUPHORIA

 

This happened to Dayang at Rm3.01 (All die kaw kaw chasing euphoria)

Are Medical Gloves reaching euphoria as well as new glove wannabees & vaccine hypes?

ALL WILL SUFFER LATER

THEY WERE WRONG AT THE WRONG TIME NOT TO BUY WHEN PRICES WERE DIRT CHEAP

THEY WERE WRONG TO CHASE AGAIN AT THE WRONG TIME WHEN PRICES WERE VERY HIGH

WHY LIKE THAT?

THE EFFECTS OF THEIR OWN HEART. THEY SHOULD BUY WHEN THERE IS FEAR. AND THEY SHOULD NOT CHASE WHEN THERE IS EUPHORIA

CHASING HOT HOT STOCKS AT PEAK PRICES ALWAYS END IN TEARS

This is a correct Description by POGO

"We have found the enemy! They is us"

 

SO?

SO SHOULD WE BUY CPO STOCKS WHILE STILL CHEAP AS EARNINGS WILL EXPLODE UPWARD IN YEAR 2021 NEXT YEAR VERY SOON NOW?

 

Best regards

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

 

  4 people like this.
 
bulldog Thanks Calvin
Bulldog top pick TDM and bplant

Huat chaiii
28/12/2020 12:50 AM
calvintaneng Very good and happy morning all

Yes bulldog

I got Tdm and Bplant plus 8 more cpo stocks
All will go up in tandem just like years 2010 to 2014 four years Palm oil bull run time

As it was
So it is
And it will be again in its ever circling years

And now is the time
28/12/2020 7:20 AM
calvintaneng Jan 4th 2021 the first trading day of a new year witnesses Fcpo Jan 2021 reached Rm3,950

Only Rm50 more to world record all time high of Rm4,000

Amazing thing is all IB banks deceptively making neutral calls for palm oil

Very very slippery analysts for fear of losing out in their Palm oil call warrants now suppressing the truth
04/01/2021 8:03 PM
Letsfly today it is even less than RM50 to hit 4k~ woohoo
05/01/2021 5:09 PM
stockraider Why the rally on cpo is sustainable leh ??

If u check the cpo spot & future from Jan 2021 to Dec 2021 all prices are above Rm 3000 until November 2021 & only December 2021 is slightly below Rm 3000 but still consider high at around Rm 2970 per tonnes.

For your info, when palmoil is average rm 2500, all the palmoil plantations make good profit mah...!!

Thus the good profit of palmoil company is sustainable very good & the average palmoil price should easily exceed average rm 3000 for 2021 mah...!!

Like calvin sifu says there are Great Safety In Palm Oil Shares loh!


Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Cpo reaching Rm4000

Moving up to Rm4500 and Rm5000 range due to la nina

Hide in great safety of palm oil shares

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Happy morning all

Yesterday Soybean prices in USA closed above Usd13.70 to yet another new high due to very dry weather in South America

La nina is here with uneven weather on earth

Floods in Malaysia will deplete cpo stocks and drought will decimate Soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina

Leading to huge shortfall and panic buying later

Palm oil bull is now on course to run for all the months of 2021
09/01/2021 1:25 PM

GREAT SUCESSFUL INVESTMENTS YEAR 2019: OGSE BULL RUN THEME; 2020 MEDICAL GLOVE SUPERBULL THEME: 2021 IS PALM OIL CPO BULL RUN THEME

Author: calvintaneng   |  Publish date: Sat, 26 Dec 2020, 10:07 PM


Hi guys,

I have lived thru 2019 OGSE Superb Bull run theme when Dayang, Carimin, Penergy & Uzma garnered 100% to 583% gain

Carimin up from 21.5 sen to Rm1.47 (Up 583%)

Penergy up from 30 sen to Rm1.68 (Up 460%)

Uzma up from 55 sen to Rm1.10 (Up 100%)

Dayang up from 50 sen to Rm3.01 (Up 502%)

Of course I did not sell at peak prices. For many making 200% to 300% is enough as subsequently prices retraced

Sorry for those who chased Dayang at peak over Rm3.00

 

The adage is true

See

John Templeton quote: Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on  skepticism, mature on...

 

DAYANG AT 50 SEN WAS IN LOWEST PESSIMISM

DAYANG OVER RM3.00 WAS IN TOTAL EUPHORIA

AT 50 SEN ALMOST UNIVERSALLY NOBODY WAS INTERESTED WITH DAYANG (LESS THAN 2% INTERESTED: TIME TO BUY)

DAYANG OVER RM3.00 WAS THE HOTTEST STOCK OF YEAR 2019

MORE THAN 90% CHASED DAYANG THEN & LOST THEIR SHIRT TILL NOW

 

2020 IS MEDICAL GLOVE SUPERBULL FOR TOPGLOVE, SUPERMAX, HARTALEGA & KOSSAN. 2 TIER COMFORT, RUBBEREX, CAREPLUS & HLT GLOBAL ALSO JOINED LATER

SO HAPPY TO SEE SUPERMAX GONE UP FROM RM1.73 TO OVER RM20.00 (HIGHEST RM24.44)

OF COURSE I DID NOT SELL AT PEAK (ONLY ABOVE RM18.00 FOR A WHOPPING 1,000% UPSIDE)

SUPERMAX C87 DID EVEN BETTER

BOUGHT AT 34.5 SEN & SOLD AT RM7.00 FOR 2,000% UPSIDE. AMAZING INDEED

SO GOOD INDEED

 

SO THIS IS THE SECRET

EVERY YEAR THERE IS ONE OR TWO THEMATIC BULL THEME

IF WE CAN CATCH IT EARLY & RIDE THE BULL TO ITS PEAK WE WILL DO EXCEEDINGLY WELL

WE WILL BE ABLE TO OUTPERFORM IN A FEW SHORT BULL RUNS AND PERHAPS RETIRE EARLY LIKE PETER LYNCH

 

OF COURSE LIKE WARREN BUFFET MAKING MONEY FROM STOCK MARKET AS A MOTIVE IS LONG OVER

IT IS THE JOY, THE ADVENTURE & THE CONSTANT INTELLECTUAL CHALLENGE IN THE ART OF INVESTMENTS THAT CAUSED HIM TO SAY

"TAP DANCING TO WORK"

 

NOW MY HUMBLE OPINION IS THIS

YEAR 2021 WILL BE PALM OIL "BULL RUN" 

WHY PALM OIL WILL GO INTO A BULL RUN FOR YEAR 2021?

ANSWER:

BECAUSE CPO PRICES NOW REACHING ALL TIME HIGH WILL AMPLIFY PROFITS

AND IF PROFITS KEEP INCREASING IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME COMPANIES WILL INCREASE DIVIDENDS OR REWARD WITH BONUS ISSUES. SO PALM OIL SHARES MUST GO UP AS THIS IS THE LAW

 

See FCPO JANUARY 2021 AT RM3,856

 

AND THEN ON THURSDAY SOYOIL CLOSED AT ANOTHER HIGH AGAIN IN USA

See

 

JAN 2021 JAN 2021 Show Price Chart 41.79 +0.44 41.35 41.35 42.01 41.34 10,285 20:01:08 CT
24 Dec 2020
MAR 2021 MAR 2021 Show Price Chart 41.09 +0.48 40.61 40.59 41.25 40.54 39,464 20:01:08 CT
24 Dec 2020
MAY 2021 MAY 2021 Show Price Chart 40.34 +0.51 39.83 39.78 40.47 39.76 13,388 20:01:08 CT
24 Dec 2020
JUL 2021 JUL 2021 Show Price Chart 39.84 +0.47 39.37 39.32 39.98 39.24 6,907 20:01:08 CT
24 Dec 2020
AUG 2021 AUG 2021 Show Price Chart 39.18 +0.33 38.85 38.73 39.31 38.59 1,442 20:01:08 CT
24 Dec 2020

 

SOYBEAN OIL GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE PEOPLE WILL GO FOR PALM OIL!! & PALM OIL WILL RISE IN TANDEM

 

AGAIN WHEN ALL THE WORLD MARKETS CLOSED FOR CHRISTMAS FRIDAY - CHINA BEING COMMUNIST STILL TRADE IN DALIAN

Soybean futures open higher

Source: Xinhua| 2020-12-25 10:01:38|Editor: huaxia
 
 

DALIAN, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Soybean futures opened higher Friday in daytime trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE).

The most active No.1 soybean contract for May 2021 delivery gained 60 yuan (about 9.19 U.S. dollars) to open at 5,700 yuan per tonne.

China is the world's largest soybean importer. Enditem

THAT'S IT 

WE ARE ALREADY NEAR END OF DECEMBER 2020

AND THE CROWNING POWER OF SOYOIL BULL FROM CHICAGO ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CHICAGO USA STILL GOING UP

PLUS SOYBEAN OIL ON FRIDAY (25TH DECEMBER 2020) IN DALIAN CHINA STILL GOING UP AGAIN POINTS TO IMMENSE STRENGTH OF THE UPCOMING CPO BULL GOING INTO YEAR 2021

MANY MISSED OGSE UPSTREAM STOCKS IN YEAR 2019

MANY MORE MISSED THE MEDICAL GLOVE SUPERBULL OF 2020 (Others chased too high in euphoria?!!)

AND MANY WILL ALSO MISS THE POWERFUL PALM OIL BULL RUN OF 2021

WILL YOU BE THE FEW WHO CATCH THE BULL EARLY?

YES! MANY ARE STILL SKEPTICAL OF CPO PRICE RISE

SO THERE IS AMPLE ROOM FOR HUGE & IMMENSE UPSIDE AS THE BEST IS STILL AHEAD

 

 

BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

 

Disclaimer

All Information Provided Here Should Be Treated For Informational Purposes Only. It Is Solely Reflecting Author's Personal Views And The Author Should Not Be Held Liable For Any Actions Taken In Reliance On Information Contained Herein

 

 

 

And a Belated Blessed Christmas & Happy New Year 2021 to all

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  2 people like this.
 
calvintaneng O HOLY NIGHT By Sissel (Norway)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUgfL-2r6W8
26/12/2020 10:15 PM
calvintaneng Mary's Boy Child Jesus Christ - Sissel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7leYfUXk9Hc
26/12/2020 10:19 PM
byehisello merry christmas and a happy new year mr calvin tan tqvm for sharing
27/12/2020 12:24 PM
ahbah Yr 2021 ... a superbull yr for all stocks bcos the mkt is flooded with moni from EPF, loan moratorium n Prihatin ?

so, get in earli lah ?
27/12/2020 4:46 PM
calvintaneng Very good and happy morning all

Ahbah so clever.

You are smarter than many

Thumbs up

No more eating cheap nasi lemak ok
28/12/2020 7:08 AM
gemfinder Post removed. Why?
28/12/2020 8:15 AM
calvintaneng Superbull for Cpo as Fcpo crossed Rm4000
07/01/2021 6:12 AM
stockraider Why the rally on cpo is sustainable leh ??

If u check the cpo spot & future from Jan 2021 to Dec 2021 all prices are above Rm 3000 until November 2021 & only December 2021 is slightly below Rm 3000 but still consider high at around Rm 2970 per tonnes.

For your info, when palmoil is average rm 2500, all the palmoil plantations make good profit mah...!!

Thus the good profit of palmoil company is sustainable very good & the average palmoil price should easily exceed average rm 3000 for 2021 mah...!!

Like calvin sifu says there are Great Safety In Palm Oil Shares loh!


Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Cpo reaching Rm4000

Moving up to Rm4500 and Rm5000 range due to la nina

Hide in great safety of palm oil shares

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Happy morning all

Yesterday Soybean prices in USA closed above Usd13.70 to yet another new high due to very dry weather in South America

La nina is here with uneven weather on earth

Floods in Malaysia will deplete cpo stocks and drought will decimate Soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina

Leading to huge shortfall and panic buying later

Palm oil bull is now on course to run for all the months of 2021
09/01/2021 1:27 PM

"RM3,808" PER TON NEW HIGH FCPO JAN 2021: PALM OIL: WHY IT IS GOING INTO EXPLOSIVE BULL RUN NOW IN STRONG UPTREND, Calvin Tan Research

Author: calvintaneng   |  Publish date: Wed, 23 Dec 2020, 11:05 PM


Hi guys,

TODAY JANUARY 2021 FCPO CLOSED NEAR 8 YEAR HIGH OF ""RM3,808" PER TON IN YEAR 2012

SEE

AND AFTER 8% TAX THE NET NET SALE IS RM3,503

LOTS OF PROFITS SINCE COST OF CPO PRODUCTION AVERAGE AT RM1,700 PER TONNE

FEW COMPANIES CAN MATCH CPO STOCKS' 100% PROFIT FOR NOW

 

WHY IS PALM OIL GOING UP?

SEE THIS NEWS

 

EXPLOSIVE SOYBEAN PRICE PICTURE FORMING, ANALYST SAYS

TIGHT SUPPLIES AND CROP WEATHER FACTORS ARE PRICE SUPPORTIVE.

 

Weather in South America is the main grain fundamental in December and January.

This is the rainy season for South America, when the soybean yield potential is either enhanced, or reduced.  

So far this year, it looks like the yield is being reduced as rather dry weather is occurring in central Brazil. In addition, crop forecasts are being reduced by private firms all over the world.  

USDA cut Argentina’s corn and soybean production forecasts slightly in the December report, but Brazil so far was left unchanged.  

SAM weather forecasts, as of mid-December, are still supportive to market prices, with below-normal precip and above-normal temps in most of SAM the next week. Also, that forecast moderates somewhat in the eight- to 14-day forecast (as it typically does in a tropical environment). Remember, the forecast in much of Brazil every day contains a 50% chance of rain in the afternoon.  

 

Most citizens never listen to a weather forecast for the summer because there is always that chance of rain in the afternoon.   

For weather watchers in the commodity markets, the question is not if it rains in Brazil, it’s how much it rains in Brazil. A 10% less than average (average is about 3 to 4 inches per week during the rainy Dec/Jan period), or 10% more than average rainfall is a big deal for the summer. It can also be the difference between a poor crop and a bumper crop on the sandy soils of Brazil. A drought is 45 inches of rain in the rainy season, and 55 inches is a wet year, if you normally get 50 inches in the six-month growing season. Of those six months, December and January are the two wettest.  

In other world news, estimates out of China show the pig/sow herd is back to 90% of normal capacity by Nov. 30, and should fully recover by the first half of next year.  While capacity has recovered mostly, prices are still much higher. So, that inventory needs to build to push prices back to normal ranges.  

Brazil’s farmers are 95% planted on soybeans vs. 96% last year at this time. AgRural, a Brazilian analyst firm, cut its forecast for Brazil’s soy crop to 131.6 mmt, below USDA’s 133 but still record output, while another group suggests 130 mmt. Numbers are coming in smaller than USDA’s and getting smaller all the time.  

Argentina’s soy is estimated at 48 mmt, while USDA just cut it to 50 mmt in Dec. vs. 51 mmt in November.  There are many estimates now below USDA based on the late planting start in Brazil, and smaller area in Argentina due to their socialistic policies that punish productive farmers.  USDA has Argentina corn at 49.0 mmt and Brazil at 110.0 mmt, while private estimates are closer to 40 to 47.0 mmt Argentina, and 102 mmt Brazil corn. If so, there’s a lot more bullish news that will hit the corn and soybean markets.  

We still haven’t finished the U.S. production season estimates, either, as the Jan. USDA report will project final corn and soybean yields. The U.S. Dec. soybean yield estimate is still 0.5 to 1.0 bushel acre too high.  

That would reduce U.S. ending stocks from 175 million bushels (mb) to between 100 and 135 mb – extremely tight already. Given U.S. soybean exports are still well ahead of projections, there could be a 50 to 100 mb hike in U.S. exports as well, which essentially eliminates the U.S. carryout. That cannot realistically happen, so obviously the market needs to do some rationing – and that can only be done with higher prices.  If South American weather problems also materialize through the end of the year, we could have an explosive situation in soybeans.  

U.S. exports of corn and soybeans continue strong. Russia pushing exports out the door ahead of its export restrictions means lower U.S. wheat exports for now, but perhaps higher later.  

Finally, we have a bullish situation in grains! It could be a very explosive situation in soybeans due to the tight U.S. stocks situation and the ongoing South American drought.  The South American soybean yields will be the powder to ignite the rally – if weather remains adverse there. Once we get to March, though, a shortage of soybeans worldwide would pull acres away from corn, wheat, and every other crop so that all grains become a very bullish situation.  

 

SO THE CAUSE IS THIS (SEVERE DROUGHT IN SOUTH AMERICA)

 

SEE

 

southamgw_grc_2020300_lrg.jpg (2103×2337)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

Disclaimer

All Information Provided Here Should Be Treated For Informational Purposes Only. It Is Solely Reflecting Author's Personal Views And The Author Should Not Be Held Liable For Any Actions Taken In Reliance On Information Contained Herein

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  bulldog likes this.
 
bulldog Good research Calvin

Huat chaiii
24/12/2020 3:02 AM
calvintaneng Happy morning bulldog

I see you posted at 3.02am?

You so excited cannot sleep?

Only you are so awake and alert to palm oil superbull trend

Other analysts and IB Banks still asleep and not aware of palm oil explosive profits.

Many will miss the rally

So we have the opportunity to buy cheap
24/12/2020 7:16 AM
calvintaneng fcpo jan 2021 new high at Rm3850 touched
24/12/2020 11:04 AM
calvintaneng Fcpo at Rm3,850?

Quite surreal
24/12/2020 11:05 AM
calvintaneng LUMBER ALSO POWERING UP

See
https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber

These 3 will benefit from High Lumber & Cpo prices

1) WTK got more lumber than palm oil

2) Jtiasa got more palm oil than lumber

3) Thplant got palm oil & forestry
24/12/2020 3:15 PM
calvintaneng WHOA FCPO JAN 2021 NOW REACHED RM3,877

GOING UP LIKE BALLISTIC MISSILE
24/12/2020 3:19 PM
calvintaneng Cpo at 25 year high now

Feb 2021 results for all plantation stocks will be fantastic
25/12/2020 11:33 AM
stockraider Despite the strong cpo prices, the things pressing it down is the cpo tax implementation, it was already confirmed at 8% now loh..!!

Now with this news already out & behind us, we look at the cpo future & it ranges from jan to august Rm 3800 to Rm 3000, all above the super profitable benchmark price of Rm 3,000 over 8 months.

Thus if u have invested in palmoil stock , you can expert super profit for at least 8 months loh...!!

In addition u need to know, if cpo prices above rm 2,600 u already substantial good margin and profit as most of plantations cpo cost is around rm 1,600 per ton mah...!!

Thus 2021 will be a very good year for palm oil plantation mah...!!

Market is still sceptic about palmoil...it will turn positive optimistic very soon loh...!!

Go in early, do not be late like Johnny come lately mah..!!
25/12/2020 11:40 AM
calvintaneng FCPO JAN 2021 TOUCHED NEW HIGH OF RM3,880 MEANS YEAR 2021 CPO PRICES WILL BE STILL BULLISH, Calvin Tan Research

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-12-30-story-h1538458941-FCPO_JAN_2021_TOUCHED_NEW_HIGH_OF_RM3_880_MEANS_YEAR_2021_CPO_PRICES_WI.jsp
30/12/2020 4:04 PM
Jonathan Keung Calvintaneng : yup agreed but most of the planter's stock still lack lustre not moving unlike the gloves darling days
30/12/2020 4:06 PM
calvintaneng Jonathan

Gloves actually gone down when wuhan kena virus in Dec 2019

And Supermax was Rm1.47 i think in Dec 2019

3 months later Supermax even fell to Rm1.30 as nobody was bullish

I only bought Supermax at a high price of Rm1.73 if compare to March low of Rm1.30

Of course only on hindsight now Rm1.73 was actually cheap

So is palm oil now

Look back by End 2021 then SEE
30/12/2020 10:14 PM

FGV (5222) GOT LANDS IN TANJUNG LANGSAT INDUSTRIAL PARK BOOK VALUE ONLY 7.2 SEN PSF SHOW UNDERVALUATION Calvin Tan Research

Author: calvintaneng   |  Publish date: Wed, 23 Dec 2020, 8:07 AM


Very good morning all

Time is getting nearer

Felda going to take FGV private at Rm1.30

Now see how cheap the Assets of FGV in another amazing discovery

For this let's go take another look at FGV assets

See FGV Annual Report 2019 (scroll down to Top 10 Properties owned)

See

Let Us Take A Look At One At Top Number 4 Properties Listed
4. Johor Darul Takzim
Inas Selatan, Kledang 02, Maokil 06, Maokil 07,
Nitar Timur, Paloh, Tenggaroh 09, Tenggaroh
11, Tenggaroh 12, Tenggaroh 13, Tenggaroh
Timur 02, Palong Timur 04, Palong Timur 05,
Semencu, Pasir Gudang, Semencu, Bukit
Besar, Air Tawar, Penggeli, Kahang, Lok
Heng, Selanchar 2A, Tenggaroh 4, Adela,
Moakil, Nitar, Selanchar 2B, Belitong, Wa Ha,
 
Tenggaroh Timur, Kulai, Plentong, Tanjung
 
Langsat Industrial Complex
 

Now Let Us Calculate The Actual Value Of These Lands

 

Land Size 33,914 Hectares
 
Net Book Value: Rm265,873,000
 
To Get Per Sq Feet Value First Convert Hectare To Acre
 
1 Hectare Equals To 2.471 Acre
 
So 33,914 Acres X 2.471 = 83,801 Acres
 
So Multiply  83,801 Acres By 43,560 To Sq Feet = 3,650,371,560 Sq Ft
 
Wow Over 3.6 BILLION S FT LANDS IN JOHOR ALONE!
 
Now To Get Price Per Sq Feet
 
Divides Rm265,873,000 By 3,650,371,560 = 0.072 Sen
 
PHEW!!! ONLY 7.2 SEN COST PRICE PER SQ FEET?
 
NOW FGV BOOK VALUE FOR TANJUNG LANGSAT INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX LAND IS ONLY 7.2 SEN
 
LET US TAKE A LOOK AT TANJUNG LANGSAT INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
 
TPM Technopark Sdn. Bhd. - Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex (TLIC)
 
DIRECTLY OPPOSITE IS TEKONG ISLAND (FAR DISTANCE)  OF SINGAPORE
 
 
Tanjung Langsat Port (TLP) | Tanjung Langsat Industrial Complex (TLIC) |  Marine Port Terminal| Pelabuhan Tanjung Langsat | Regional Marine Supply  Base | Warehouse | Logistics Hub :: TLP Terminal | Pasir Gudang | Johor |  Malaysia
 
 
BELOW IS MSM SUGAR WAREHOUSE IN TANJUNG LANGSAT INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
 
BOOK VALUE OF LAND & BUILDING ONLY 7.2 SEN PSF (CURRENT VALUE SHOULD BE RM100 PSF)
 
MSM Malaysia, Tanjung Langsat, Johor – CK Corporate
 
MSM Malaysia, Tanjung Langsat, Johor – CK Corporate
 
THE STEEL BEAMS ALONE WORTH MORE THAN RM2500 OR MORE PER TONNE
 
VERY STRANGE THAT BOOK VALUE DOES NOT REVEAL ACTUAL VALUE
 
BUT SEE THIS NEWS
 

MSM to build RM1.1bil sugar refinery

 

 

KUALA LUMPUR: Sugar refiner MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd has plans to expand its business with deals to build a RM1.1bil refinery in Tanjung Langsat, Johor, as well as acquire mills and a plantation from a state-owned Indonesian sugar producer.

Group chief executive officer Datuk Dr Sheikh Awab Sheikh Abod (pic) said MSM was confident of winning the tender for the Indonesian mill development project, despite there being four other parties bidding for the project.

 

He said this would build up the company’s upstream business.

“We are proposing a built-operate-transfer model for the project. The sugar producer has five mills now, of which we plan to shut down three and focus only on two mills.

IS MSM SUGAR PART OF SYED MOKTAR INTEREST?
 

Felda Global - To inject MSM into SPV run by Syed Mokhtar?

Author:    |    Publish date: 



  • The Edge Malaysia weekly reported that Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar has proposed a formation of a special purpose vehicle (SPV), where MSM Malaysia and Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar's sugar assets will be injected into. The special purpose vehicle will be run by Syed Mokhtar.
  • MSM's market share of the sugar industry in Malaysia was 60% in 2016 while Central Sugar's market share is the remaining 40%.
  • FGV officials are currently evaluating the proposal. The Edge Malaysia said that while FGV appears to be willing to part ways with the sugar business, Syed Mokhtar's plan falls short. However, there were no details on the shortcomings of his proposals.
  • Central Sugar, which is owned by Syed Mokhtar, was reported to have recorded a net profit of RM98.1mil on the back of a turnover of RM1.4bil in FY16. In comparison, MSM's net profit was RM120.7mil on the back of revenues of RM2.7bil in FY16.
  • It is not known how much Central Sugar's net profit was in FY17. MSM recorded a net loss of RM32.6mil in FY17 as it was hit by a high cost of raw sugar in 1HFY17.
  • Whether or not the proposal is beneficial to FGV depends on the valuation or pricing for MSM Malaysia. Also as MSM is listed, we are unsure if it has to be privatised first before being injected into the special purpose vehicle or whether MSM will be sold directly to the special purpose vehicle and hence, all shareholders in MSM would be offered shares in the special purpose vehicle.
  • It is uncertain if the special purpose vehicle has reserves to make a cash offer for MSM.
  • MSM's market capitalisation is RM2.5bil currently, which implies an FY18F PE of 16.7x and FY19F PE of 16.2x. We have a fair value of RM4.30/share for MSM, which is based on an FY18F PE of 20x. MSM was listed in 2011 at an institutional IPO price of RM3.50/share and retail IPO price of RM3.38/share.
  • If FGV were to hold shares in the special purpose vehicle as consideration for the disposal of MSM Malaysia, we reckon that the special purpose vehicle would be an associate or joint venture. However, the earnings base would be larger as it would hold Central Sugar and MSM. We think that Syed Mokhtar would hold a controlling stake in the special purpose vehicle.
  • At the peak of MSM's earnings in FY15, it accounted for 68.9% of FGV's pre-tax profit. in FY17, MSM only accounted for 0.5% of FGV's pre-tax earnings.
  • We expect MSM to swing into a net profit of RM151.1mil in FY18F vs. a net loss of RM32.6mil in FY17 due to a drop in the cost of raw sugar. Risk is the new sugar refinery in Tanjung Langsat, which is targeted for commissioning in 2HFY18. There is risk that MSM may not be able to find enough off-takers for the new sugar refinery, which has a production capacity of one million tonnes per year.
  • Maintain HOLD on MSM Malaysia with a fair value of RM4.30/share. MSM is 51%-owned by FGV. Koperasi Permodalan Felda holds another 15.3% of MSM Malaysia.

Source: AmInvest Research - 19 Mar 2018

 
 
 
NOW FELDA IS TAKING FGV PRIVATE AT RM1.30
 
ANYTHING AT RM1.30 OR BELOW LOOKS CHEAP INDEED
 
OR ANYTHING RM1.50 BELOW LOOKS CHEAP?
 
 
Best regards
 
Calvin Tan Research
Singapore
 
Disclaimer

All Information Provided Here Should Be Treated For Informational Purposes Only. It Is Solely Reflecting Author's Personal Views And The Author Should Not Be Held Liable For Any Actions Taken In Reliance On Information Contained Herein

 
 
 
 

 

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