Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Mon, 18 Mar 2019, 08:01 AM

 

QL RESOURCES VERSUS DIALOG GROUP (Compare Price Chart & 5 Years EPS) Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Hi guys

Let us compare QL RESOURCES VESUS DIALOG GROUP And See Their Price Charts & EPS  (Earnings Per Share)

 

First QL RESOURCES Price Chart below Please read till the end

 

QL RESOURCES BERHAD [S] (7084)

 

Company Website 
Annual Report 
General Meetings

QL RESOURCES BHD (7084) Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look closer at QL Price Chart

It grew gradually until beginning of Year 2017

It started in Year 2017 at about Rm3.40. And its price was  Rm4.50 at end 2017

So QL price jumped 31 % for year 2017

 

It started 2017 at Rm4.50 and ended at peak of Rm7.50 near end of 2018 for another jump of 66.6%

 

But if we take the low base of Rm3.40 in early 2017 at Rm3.40 to its peak of Rm7.50 end 2018 then THE SPIKE UP IS A WHOPPING 120% IN 2 YEARS

 

Now let us SEE Ql Actual Earnings Recorded for the Last 5 Years

 

1) YEAR 2014. EPS  WAS 15.67 SEN

2) YEAR 2015  EPS  WAS 15.90 SEN

3) YEAR 2016  EPS  WAS  15.12 SEN

4) YEAR 2017  EPS  WAS  16.44 SEN

5) YEAR 2018  EPS  WAS  12.86 SEN

 

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE EPS (EARNINGS PER SHARE IN YEAR 2014 QL EARNED 15.67 SEN. AND BY YEAR 2018 ITS EPS WAS ONLY 12.86 SEN (A DROP OF 18% IN REAL TIME)

LOOK AGAIN AT THE CHART 

AT THE BEGINNING OF YEAR 2014 QL WAS ONLY RM2.25. CURRENT PRICE IS RM6.98 OR UP 233% IN 5 YEARS WHILE EPS DROPPED 18%

ALL THESE FIGURES AND FACTS ARE THERE. STUDY YOURSELF VERY VERY VERY CAREFULLY!!

 

Now let's SEE DIALOGUE PRICE CHART

 

 

DIALOG GROUP BERHAD [S] (7277)

Company Website 
Annual Report 
General Meetings


DIALOG GROUP BHD (7277) Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND THESE ARE THE LAST 5 YEARS EPS OF DIALOG

 

1) YEAR 2014  WAS 5.69 SEN

2) YEAR 2015 WAS 5.61 SEN

3) YEAR 2016 WAS 6.25 SEN

4) YEAR 2017 WAS 8.45 SEN

5) YEAR 2018 WAS 8.61 SEN

 

DIALOG Share price was quite flat till early year 2017 when it started at Rm1.58 Sen

DIALOG Ended year 2017 at Rm2.50 for an 58% Upside

It started Year 2018 at Rm2.50 and ended slighty above Rm3.55 for another 42% Upside

If we take early 2017 price of Rm1.58 to its peak at Rm3.55 near year end then the upside is A Huge 124%

 

Now is this justified?

 

See from Year 2014 DIALOG EPS WAS 5.69 & IN Year 2018 It Grew to 8.61 Sen For Growth of 51%

 

FROM HERE WE CAN CONCLUDE THAT QL PRICES SPIKED UP WITHOUT JUSTIFICATION AS ITS REAL EARNING IS STAGNATING AND GOING DOWN

AND DIALOG EPS IS GAINING MORE AND MORE IN STRENGTH

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

 

NOTE:

BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SELL QL & SWITCH TO DIALOG

Please do your own due diligence before buying or selling

 

Share this

  3 people like this.
 
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Thats why I say 1st level thinking always 1st level thinking. Ask yourself, how easy it is for dialog to expand to phillipines or indonesai or thailand or japan with its business model?

Then ask yourself if QL can do the same thing (yes it has regional replication up and running, which is why they sacrificing short term profit for long term gain). And most importantly, why is QL REVENUE and earnings is consistently growing year after year after year.

Then ask yourself why Dialog growth of revenue is stuttering up and down (and how much capex needed to grow, and how many storage tanks do we really need?
Why is Dialog revenue reducing, and can they keep up the earnings? financial accounting?

Is QL growth story ending? or just beginning to flex its muscles? (watch the long queues at family mart and the brand recognition and products you should know the answer)

How is Dialog trying to find its second wind with EPCC and upstream ventures? Will it end up successful or troublesome? why is their storage tank expansion slowing down? (QL already found its second wind with Marine, third wind with layered farming, fourth wind with plantation, fifth wind with family mart. all from a start as a feedstock company)

Dialog has more nasty surprises coming up with its EPCC division (which 1st level thinkers know nothing about).

You know nothing Jon Snow. And winter is coming.

You should stick to what you know calvin tan. Which is preaching the word of god. Because your investment track record is more luck than skill.
23/02/2019 18:50
PureBULL . I attended many analysts n fund managers meeting with ceo of plc.

tony of airasia, was most charming.
2nd was liew of ecoworld.

QL, every-time the crowd will asked,
who's your next to take-over?

Chia sk was so super sharp!

he said, my son is with mckinsey & Co, the shoalin.temple of strategic mgmt, only the top in IVY league n or Oxbridge talents can get in !

Everybody was shocked n awed completely !

Topglov owner, lim oso my mu mate, was my close neighbor in the same row. he's at 33 n 35. i was at 36, tr8/3 TGCR, 47410 PJ.
soli to show off a bit !
23/02/2019 19:16
qqq3 Posted by PureBULL . > Feb 23, 2019 07:16 PM | Report Abuse

he said, my son is with mckinsey & Co, the shoalin.temple of strategic mgmt, only the top in IVY league n or Oxbridge talents can get in !
====

just throwing McKinsey name must be worth a lot in market cap......hahaha
23/02/2019 19:32
qqq3 QL strategy as good as any McKinsey strategy.....
23/02/2019 19:33
qqq3 PE 50 is not a liability

in fact, PE 50 means every dollar earned is equal to $ 50 in market cap.....and if next result exceeds expectations, market cap increase by $50 for every extra $ earned.....
23/02/2019 19:37
calvintaneng Hahaha

So fast come for the defense of QL?

Good.

From here we will see how others think and react.

Just remind all that these 2 funds are in Top 30 holders of Dialog

1. Gic. Govt investment Corp of Singapore which manages the CPF funds of Singaporeans
Currently Gic is giving out 6% Dividend yield for CPF. This is much higher than Bank Fd rate of 1.2%

2. Monetary Authority of Singapore
This one manages the Reserves of Singapore

Both no child's play

Very serious business
23/02/2019 19:45
PureBULL . Dear sifu qqq3,

Our CFO r all v good accountants but far good to be CFO.

Most r from ACCA, v v good accountant.


Only the biz school of IVY league r taught HOW to be great CFO to create consistent price growth in stocks for years.

Just recently, I learned how wallstreet faked Apple, AAPL a
dead fish to become a life in Cantonese.
It's REAL in big money game!
23/02/2019 19:46
Tanleechoo Interesting! Let see who is proven in long term . ..
23/02/2019 20:25
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip No point asking who is proven, I have skin in the game, been a long term investor of QL since 2009. Every quarter I added in my salary and commission and bonus, for 40 quarters straight. I monitor my 5 stocks very very carefully.

CalvinT has zero skin in the game, he can afford to talk because he doesn't have a portfolio. He sells subscription and cheats new investors by acting as if he is a know it all. I keep only to my circle of competence.

He is the guy who told you about perisai, talam, binapuri, protasco, etc etc. He has 5% of his networth spread out over 50 stocks.

I would have a discussion, but his investing method is so archaic and simple and straightforward you really wonder how he really makes his money. Likely from property and just following his Johor sifu blindly like a parrot.

All I can say is if you take all of his stock picks and average it out, you would have negative return.

You just have to see in the long term, which stock has he ever picked that has grown shareholder value for 10 years running?

The guy who brings his friends to his abode in holland( drive)?

Or the guy who held since 2009 stocks in QL, Topglov, PBB (now PCHEM), YINSON? And moreover top up every quarter and didn't sell a single share?

It is obvious what Calvin is trying to do by comparing price action (only) of QL versus DIALOG. He spells it as dialogue, not knowing what dialog even stands for.

Do you think he bought a single share?
23/02/2019 20:58
Sslee Dear PureBULL,
Glad to know that many MU graduate of 1980’s are founders of many great companies listed in Bursa. Indeed UM was the top of Ivy League of Malaysia during the good old day of its inception till 80-90’s. Like Shoalin’s disciples, we need to battle thro’ the 18 bronze warriors and lift the giant hot bronze bowl which imprinted in us UM’s motto ‘Ilmu Puncha Kemajuan’. The motto consists of ‘Ilmu’ derived from Arabic, ‘Puncha’ from Sanskrit, and ‘Kemajuan’ from Malay. These words mean knowledge is the source of progress. We had used our knowledge to benefit self and all. Well done to all the alma mater of UM.
So enjoy a nice “teh tarik” with Sifu Calvintaneng.

Thank you
23/02/2019 21:02
Sslee Dear Philip,
I borrow from PureBULL, “Chia sk was so super sharp! he said, my son is with mckinsey & Co, the shoalin.temple of strategic mgmt, only the top in IVY league n or Oxbridge talents can get in !” and for INSAS I quote Dato’ Sri Thong daughter, “Ms. Thong was appointed as Head of Global Treasury and Corporate Planning of Insas Berhad on 1 July 2012. She graduated with a Bachelor of Arts from Dartmouth College. She has had 5 years of equity capital markets experience having worked at Credit Suisse in New York from 2004 to 2006, and Deutsche Bank from 2006 to 2009 at their New York, Hong Kong and Singapore offices. She subsequently joined the corporate finance team in Genting Hong Kong from 2009 to mid-2012.” So she is the master of “Tai Chi” using minimum force to exert maximum impact.

Thank you
23/02/2019 21:08
calvintaneng Very good comments from SSLee

Thumbs up

Clap
Clap!
Clap!!
23/02/2019 21:17
calvintaneng See RAPID jobs for DIALOG

https://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/blog/blpost.jsp?blid=2222&blpid=194709
23/02/2019 22:09
Tanleechoo Majority of investors are emotional.. once u have invested in that counter, u will defence it .. I have kept QL for the last 10 yrs n I have also kept Insas almost 10 years . We make our own decision.. good nite n all take a good rest .
23/02/2019 23:31
calvintaneng Tanleechoo has emotional intelligence

AND a sound mind

Good night

Zzzz,,,,...
23/02/2019 23:39
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip That is definitely true, there is always a need for someone to make a choice and others to poke it down. And there is definitely emotion involved when one has long term success with an investing method but is met with ridicule by those with average results over time.

>>>>
Majority of investors are emotional.. once u have invested in that counter, u will defence it .. I have kept QL for the last 10 yrs n I have also kept Insas almost 10 years . We make our own decision.. good nite n all take a good rest .
24/02/2019 07:32
Tanleechoo Honestly,,I make a mistake for Insas Bcause of the so called hidden value .n continue to keep till today n hope Insas to shine one day..... when I Add my investment in QL 10 years ago , n almost every year ..my reminser (good n trusted friend) advised me Not to as the PE is around 28+ ... but the decision is mine as i believe in the business model .. it is good to share ur analysis with all and hope all do it in good faith to help us to THINK Clearly .. Tqsm to all for sharing n contributing so that i don’t fall in decision bias as I alrsdy invest in this share ..
24/02/2019 08:57
Tanleechoo Neutral .
24/02/2019 09:03
Sslee Dear Philip,
I quote PureBULL
Posted by PureBULL . > Feb 24, 2019 05:26 AM | Report Abuse
(S = Qr) Philip is a great talent in i3.
So good to have him on board.
Philip's stock selection for investing is simply superb.
I think he knows how biz works n how it can work BETTER.
BUT keep holding stocks long term without paying attention to price cycle n right timing for exit n entry can be BORING.
Every Q after QR, few select stocks will fly.
We must make those money n usually the price increase is v v explosive !

Yes I totally agree that indeed your stock selection for investing is simply superb and the way you articulate your selection criteria is excellent and I am grateful and thankful to have you on board I3. As I said before I have never see Calvintaneng make any call with High PE and Low NTA (Dialog is his first as far as I can remember because of your great influence of Moat factor PChem and Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex and looking at the top 30 shareholders).

Calvintaneng is typical Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety based on net cash, net asset, low PE and high NTA with patience to wait for either major shareholder take it private or some shareholder activist/hostile take-over to unlock the hidden treasure. By the way he never promoted ‘Sailang” nor margin finance so no harm done.

Thank you
24/02/2019 09:27
Sslee Dear Tanleechoo
I first bought into INSAS year 2017, I consider INSAS as net cash and net NTA play. INSAS is severely under-value because of excellent performance of Inari. I am prepared to hold long provided the BOD gave decent dividend. Just look out for the important date: FEB 2020 where the warrant expired. If Dato’ Sri Thong convert his warrant then it will trigger a conditional MGO at offer price of RM1.00 + warrant market price at that date.

Thank you
24/02/2019 09:34
calvintaneng As I said before I have never see Calvintaneng make any call with High PE and Low NTA (Dialog is his first as far as I can remember because of your great influence of Moat factor PChem and Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex and looking at the top 30 shareholders).

Calvintaneng is typical Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety based on net cash, net asset, low PE and high NTA with patience to wait for either major shareholder take it private or some shareholder activist/hostile take-over to unlock the hidden treasure. By the way he never promoted ‘Sailang” nor margin finance so no harm done.

Thank you
24/02/2019 09:27


Good morning SSLee

Yes, you are correct. I think I must thank Philip for changing my mindset.

True indeed. Since I am basically a Value oriented guy I will not take another look at stock with no NTA support. But since looking at Philip's approach I think I found Dialog to be one great growth stock.

It's ok to test and see with a modest sum invested in Dialog

I started with VALUE ONLY STOCKS Only but quite dead.

Then I moved to Value Cum Growth Stocks. 2nd phase.

This is the 3rd Phase. Growth & Growth only approach

As today is LORD's Day

Do visit www.chick.com
24/02/2019 09:53
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Dear SSLee

I repeat an off repeated charlie munger and warren buffett maxim, which I recommend you reading more books ( on everything, biology, law, architecture, engineering, investing, biographies) on expanding your investing knowledge.

- "In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard, one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard."

What this means (a lesson to Calvin tan as well), if you look to the scoreboard only (share price), or the names of the players arrayed on the field, you will not have a satisfactory return long term.

you must know how the players coordinate with each other, what the injuries are on the opposition team, how tired your players are, how motivated and dedicated.

If you only know how to look at scoreboard, then you fall to the same problem all 1st level thinkers have.

another one of my mental models I use: Everyone has an angle.

Take a wary eye on the accounting reports ( they are simply processed information by the accountants based on data given by the business owners). It can be easily "cooked" to those that have a need to.

Instead, think of investing as an ecosystem, where everything is linked to each other.

when a company is cash rich, why? When a company has high net assets but inability to capitalize on them, why? When a company sells a good subsidiary to purchase nonperforming ones, why? Investing based on NTA and cash alone is similar to buying xinguan based on the assumption that they have 1 billion in cash, even as the revenues, earnings ,and industry performance is going the opposite way.

Everything is related to each other, you cannot just pick one detail out (NTA, cash holdings) and say this business will succeed. That is oversimplification doomed for failure. and stop looking at the share price alone. If a business succeeds, the share price will take care of itself.

"More commonly, the forces coming out of these one hundred (investing) models are conflicting to some extent. And you get huge, miserable tradeoffs. But if you can't think in terms of tradeoffs and recognize tradeoffs in what you're dealing with, you're a horse's patoot. You clearly are a danger to the rest of the people when serious thinking is being done. You have to recognize how these things combine. And you have to realize the truth of biologist Julian Huxley's idea that 'Life is just one damn relatedness after another.' So you must have the models, and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness." - charlie munger
24/02/2019 09:54
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip I believe the biggest lesson to learn in I3 is to remove yourself of basic prime concepts, and relearn and add on to your platform with updated concepts.

One bad mental model which I see on most stocks by so called analysts,

when a company is cash rich or has high NTA, the first instinct is = GOOD. SAFE COMPANY TO BUY.

I learned the hard way in 1997.

My advice is to update that mental model(2009 edition), when you approach a company with high NTA and cash rich, you first instinct should now be = BUT WHY?. That changes your prime concept into something that you will study further into instead of buy and forget.
24/02/2019 10:04
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Einstein said it best, "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

Oversimplification = Disaster.
24/02/2019 10:09
stockraider m surprise if u have collected & kept insas 10 yrs ago...ur cost should be around Rm 0.20 to Rm 0.40 mah...!!
A gain 200% to 400% mah....!!

R u really Mr Philip in disguise ah ??

This is not counting the gain u get from Insas PA with warrant mah...!!

Ur cost if u hold from 10 yrs ago is even cheaper than LENO loh...!!

Posted by Tanleechoo > Feb 24, 2019 08:57 AM | Report Abuse

Honestly,,I make a mistake for Insas Bcause of the so called hidden value .n continue to keep till today n hope Insas to shine one day..... when I Add my investment in QL 10 years ago , n almost every year ..my reminser (good n trusted friend) advised me Not to as the PE is around 28+ ... but the decision is mine as i believe in the business model .. it is good to share ur analysis with all and hope all do it in good faith to help us to THINK Clearly .. Tqsm to all for sharing n contributing so that i don’t fall in decision bias as I alrsdy invest in this share ..
24/02/2019 10:48
Tanleechoo Tqsm for sharing n contributing ! This is how we learn Fr each other .
Why should I pretend to be someone ? Don’t belittle Mr Phillip.. ..
have a great Sunday ... spend More time reading n thinking ..
I learn Fr my Imperial college son .. he just pass me 2 books to read — the art of thinking clearly n the life changing magic of tidying ..
Not investment book ... but I feel can apply in investment too ... tidying the stock I hold ... those have to sell .. sell as this is sunk cost ..
Tqsm for positive energy
24/02/2019 11:34
3101575000 Stockraider: Yes . You are right! 10 yrs ago I did buy INSAS around 20 cts plus. I sold too early with a little gained.
24/02/2019 12:19
Sslee Dear Philip,
From Warren own word: My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked. But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well.

Many of the retail investors in i3 are small sum investor thus nothing wrong if they follow Ben Graham’s investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices.

For my-self I only put 1/3 of my cash worth in stocks investment and I divided my stocks selection into deep value stocks, dividend stocks, trading stocks (theme play) and lately following your advice growth + dividend stock.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/business/dealbook/buffett-annual-letter-berkshire.html
The conglomerate controlled by Warren E. Buffett suffered losses of $25.4 billion in the fourth quarter, according to Berkshire’s annual report that was released on Saturday.
Problems at Kraft Heinz, which on Thursday reported weak fourth-quarter earnings and a $15.4 billion write-down, also weighed on Berkshire, which owns a nearly 27 percent stake in the food company.

A word of caution keeping cash is also a form of prudent and conservative investment. Remember during the past market crash many people wish he/she had hold cash and spoil for choice to buy wonderful companies at the fraction of its price.

Thank you.
P/S: Growth is only good if it is above the cost of capital. By chasing growth with borrowing money is a risk. By assuming the success story can be duplicated and scaled up in foreign countries is a dangerous thought especially bread and butter business as many countries will give priority to their own local companies for self interest and food security.
24/02/2019 14:08
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Hi tanleechoo,

Surprisingly enough, I have also read these books. And they add on to my mental models in thinking about investing and it's prospects.

Remember everything is related.

>>>>
the art of thinking clearly n the life changing magic of tidying ..
24/02/2019 14:15
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Also Marie kondo is now officially a cult, with her own tv show exclusively on Netflix.
24/02/2019 14:16
calvintaneng Sslee Dear Philip,
From Warren own word: My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked.

(CORRECT. IN THE USA IN EARLY DAYS THERE WERE TRUE UNDERVALUE BARGAINS THAT BEN GRAHAM COULD EASILY PICK. THESE WERE LOW HANGING FRUITS.

AND WALTER SCHLOSS ALSO PICKED THESE DEEP VALUE DEAD STOCKS FOR MANY YEARS AND DONE VERY VERY WELL. UNTIL SCHLOSS'S OWN SON TOLD HIM THE DEEP VALUE APPROACH NO LOGER WORK AS DEEP VALUE STOCKS ARE HARDER AND HARDER TO GET AS MANY FOLLOWED GRAHAM

THIS SAME PROBLEM OF OVER CONCENTRATION INTO VALUE ALSO AFFECTED BUFFET. PLUS HIS FUND SIZE GREW HE HAS TO LOOK FOR ALTERNATIVE


But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well.

YES WITH SUCH A FUND LIKE BERKSHIRE TODAY IT WILL JUST TAKE OVER ANY SMALL VALUE STOCK. SO HE MUST LOOK FOR STOCKS WITH BIGGER CAPITALIZATION.

Many of the retail investors in i3 are small sum investor thus nothing wrong if they follow Ben Graham’s investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices.

YES CHUN CHUN. SO MANY STOCKS WERE SELLING FOR A SONG IN THOSE EARLY YEARS LIKE HINGYAP, DNP, TEBRAU (10 SEN), FOCAL AIMS (11 SEN), TRADEWINDS, AUSTRAL ENT, GOLDEN HOPE PLANT, KULIM, THESTORE, JOHOR LAND, MTD INFRAR, PARAMOUNT GARDEN, ISLAND & PENINSULAR & MANY OTHERS

For my-self I only put 1/3 of my cash worth in stocks investment and I divided my stocks selection into deep value stocks, dividend stocks, trading stocks (theme play) and lately following your advice growth + dividend stock.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/business/dealbook/buffett-annual-le...
The conglomerate controlled by Warren E. Buffett suffered losses of $25.4 billion in the fourth quarter, according to Berkshire’s annual report that was released on Saturday.
Problems at Kraft Heinz, which on Thursday reported weak fourth-quarter earnings and a $15.4 billion write-down, also weighed on Berkshire, which owns a nearly 27 percent stake in the food company.

BUFFET DID NOT FORESEE A NEW PERIL ARISING FROM ECOMMERCE & VALUE DESTROYING AGENT OF CHANGE FOR MANUFACTURERS

THERE IS NOW A GROWING BAND OF VALUE AGENTS WHICH BUY IN BULK & SELL AT MANUFACTURERS' WHOLESALE COST PRICE. THERE ONLY CHARGE A YEARLY MEMBERSHIP FEE FOR PURCHASE AT COST. AND NORMAL RETAIL STORES WERE WIPED OUT FIRST. GROWING INTO GIGANTIC SIZE THEY ARE ABLE TO NEGOTIATE FROM MANUFACTURERS AT EVEN LOWER COSTS

AND IF MANUFACTURERS WANTED TO RAISE PRICES THEY THREATEN TO BOYCOTT
SO GIVING IN TO FEAR OF LOSING BUSINESS MARKET SHARE THEY GAVE IN

AND WITH RISING COSTS BUT WITHOUT THE ABILITY TO RAISE PRICES THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING TO KRAFT

BUFFET ALSO MADE A BLUNDER IN TESCO EUROPE WHEN IT OVER EXPANDED. AND US CHINA TRADE SPAT HAVE TURNED MILLIONS OF CHINESE FROM APPLE TO HUAWEI

BERKSHIRE IS NOW FACING NEW FANGLED PERIL FROM MANY AREAS. WHAT WE THINK ARE "MOATS" MIGHT NO LONGER BE THERE WITH THE CHANGING OF TIMES.



A word of caution keeping cash is also a form of prudent and conservative investment. Remember during the past market crash many people wish he/she had hold cash and spoil for choice to buy wonderful companies at the fraction of its price.

Thank you.
P/S: Growth is only good if it is above the cost of capital. By chasing growth with borrowing money is a risk. By assuming the success story can be duplicated and scaled up in foreign countries is a dangerous thought especially bread and butter business as many countries will give priority to their own local companies for self interest and food security.
24/02/2019 14:08
24/02/2019 16:14
24/02/2019 16:17
supersaiyan3 Few more days for QL.....

I have said this quarter will be very bad for QL. Because chicken got problems and oil palm low price.

Bosses also panic sell last two months, but look at the pattern the problem must have been solved as they are buying back.

So, be cautious but don't get too emotional, you could get burned if you are not thinking rationally.
24/02/2019 18:13
qqq3 supersaiyan3 > Feb 24, 2019 06:13 PM | Report Abuse

Few more days for QL.....
=========

really meh....I just bot QL for excellent results looking at chicken and egg prices and results of other chicken farms....
24/02/2019 18:16
calvintaneng Forget about chicken & egg business with no moat or barrier to entry

Dialog has a Rock Solid Moat in RAPID

And RAPID has a strategic location

Even Singapore Govt SEE GOT BRIGHT FUTURE & PUT THEIR MONEY THERE

https://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/blog/blpost.jsp?blid=2222&blpid=194709
24/02/2019 18:20
calvintaneng Warren Buffet Made A Big Loss in UK Tesco

Another one is KRAFT Got hit be ECommerce & Shrewd Agent of Discount

Also got his Apple share impacted by US-China Trade war

BUT WARREN BUFFET WAS CLEVER & CHUN CHUN IN BUYING PHILIPS 66 The Oil & Gas Flow Improver Company

He bought Philips 66 for about USD55 & Philips 66 went up to a high of USD122 in 2018 for more than 100% gain

See

https://www.businessinsider.sg/warren-buffett-buys-phillips-66-2015-8/?r=US&IR=T

He recently sold some & reaped huge profit. He is still keeping Philips 66
24/02/2019 18:28
calvintaneng Where is Philip?

Calling Philip!

See Warren Buffet bought into Philips 66 the Oil Flow Improver in year 2013 at USD55 & Philips 66 gone up to a high of USD122 for year 2018 (Up more than 100%)

Now the equivalent of Philips 66 is Pantech.

Why Pantech?

Answer:

Pantech also into Oil Flow Improver at higher level after selling Oil & Gas pipes

Better go get some early before this HIDDEN GEM run up in price
24/02/2019 20:23
fangyew thank you calvin , you are great !
24/02/2019 22:47
calvintaneng Thank you fangyew

I just a student learning from everybody
24/02/2019 23:13
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Suddenly an expert. Have you compared results from teoseng, cck, and other poultry and lifestock suppliers? the egg and poultry price increase reports from the federation of lifestock Farmers Malaysia (flfam)?
Do you follow up the mpob listed process by region monthly? Lower prices yes, but due to a bumper crop regionally? Have you looked at the total production increase by QL this quarter?

Bosses panic selling? The selling by the "bosses" to fund their foundation charity giving you mean? They still have hundreds of millions of shares which is not going anywhere (70% ownership similar to Nestle) if it was a meaningful drop I would definitely be worried. A few million ringgit here and there is chump change and you get worried? If they didn't have faith in own company why would they buy back with their own cash? They could have easily done a treasury stock buy back and achieve a bigger net effect.

Pattern of what problem? Do you mean family Mart growing much much faster than expected and already hitting break even 2 years after starting up ( and 100 million in capex costs?) Did you buy the maxincome sdn bhd ctos ssm report ( only like rm 30 or so I believe) or their ccriss ( my wife helped me access from public bank side) to read something that is very very impressive ( so impressive I bought 50k shares@ 6.25 after Christmas bonus in 2018)

2 years increasing revenue 100 million from family Mart? That growth problem you mean?

I believe that the possibility ql going to become Malaysia agribehemoth after following it and investing more in it over 10 years far more likely over the long run than a crystal ball that says the quarter will be bad.

I should keep quiet and let more bad rumors about QL float about so I can buy more at lower prices...


>>>>>>>>

24/02/2019 16:17

supersaiyan3 Few more days for QL.....

I have said this quarter will be very bad for QL. Because chicken got problems and oil palm low price.

Bosses also panic sell last two months, but look at the pattern the problem must have been solved as they are buying back.

So, be cautious but don't get too emotional, you could get burned if you are not thinking rationally.
25/02/2019 07:24
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip I really don't know who is thinking rationally or just using level 1 thinking.


* Calvin, are you seriously comparing Phillips 66 as equivalent to pantech??

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company with a portfolio of businesses: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. Our Company processes,
transports, stores and markets fuels and products globally. Phillips 66 Partners (NYSE: PSXP), our master limited partnership, is integral to the portfolio. The 14,600 dedicated employees of Phillips 66
are executing the strategy that has guided the Company since its creation in 2012.

Financial highlights

($MM) 2017 2016 2015
Revenue $102,354 $84,279 $98,975
Net income 5,106 1,555 4,227
Cash from operations 3,648. 2,963 5,713
Capital expenditure. 1,832 2,844 5,764
Total assets* 54,371. 51,653. 48,580


It's like comparing your pastor John in Johor bahru to pope John Paul 2nd in Rome.

Totally different industries, totally different moats, totally different levels of competence.
25/02/2019 07:35
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Try starting your own chicken and egg farm and see? See how long you can last. Consolidation for this industry has been happening for a very long while. Only the smart and integrated survive. Those who have tried scratch their heads why the chickens sold is far cheaper than my costs of raising it.

>>>>

Forget about chicken & egg business with no moat or barrier to entry
25/02/2019 07:39
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip Your Pantech

Pantech Group Holdings Bhd is engaged in investment holding and provision of management services. The company has three operating segments: Trading; Manufacturing and Investment holding. It derives most of its revenues from the Trading segment. The Trading segment is engaged in trading, supply and stocking of high pressure seamless and specialized steel pipes, fittings, flanges, valves and other related products for use in the oil and gas. The Manufacturing segment is engaged in manufacturing and supply of butt-welded carbon steel fittings, stainless steel, and alloy pipes, fittings and related products, as well as milling, machining and welding of tube and pipe fitting. The Investment holding segment is engaged in investment holding, property investment and management service.

I lazy to show you Pantech financials, you can see how much of an "equivalent" it had grown since 2012 until today.

Phillips 66 also in 2012 you can compare.

Then you know what moats are.

Hidden gem? What is so hidden about Swarovski Stones? Nice sounding name?
25/02/2019 07:45
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip The q in Pantech management can only go so far. After pic is done, it's performance will only be on that level. If it was going to be successful, it would have diversified into the right industries and grown it's moat a long time ago. It's basically a company that fights only on price with no vertical integration or special innovation in it's horizon.

If course I may be totally wrong and Calvin may be totally right.

So I reserve the right to smirk art him 5 years from now, and I give him the opportunity to laugh at me if QL market cap drops to 500 million and Pantech goes up to 11 billion 5 years from now.
25/02/2019 07:58
calvintaneng Good

Shall be happy to see 5 years

I like these words,

"If course I may be totally wrong and Calvin may be totally right"

May I qualify that statement

Calvin shall be very happy if he is more right than wrong in investments.

I cannot expect to be totally right all the time.
If I can make more right than wrong decisions then I should come out well

Have a nice day
25/02/2019 08:14
(70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip But to be honest Calvin why do you even bother buying PANTECH, just look at PCHEM instead.

Forget the share price, forget the extra zeros. Forget the market cap.

Study and understand the business first.

Pantech pays out 40% of Pat, pchem pays out 50%.

Pantech growth 5 years averaged out is shoddy. Only this financial year with pic construction Pantech making profit ( at low net margins around 7% due to competition).

PCHEM is growing hugely 5 years even without PIC. What happens to PCHEM when it does get completed? It has 25% net profit which is sustainable because of its production moat for many years since it's spin-off in 2010.

Ask yourself one simple question, who makes more money? Developer or sub-contractor? And after developer gets it's Jewel up and running with 30% increased capacity and new business units like isononanol processing plant ( first in South East Asia)? How big will the growth of the "developer" be?

This is what I mean between buying fair companies with wonderful prices and wonderful companies for fair prices.

And after all that is said and done? It is only selling for pe 14.

*Oops I'm sorry, ever since I bought my block the share price has jumped, it is now up from 67 billion to 72 billion, pe is 15. Still worth it.
That could buy you like 10 PANTECH with change for kopi tarik.

But add 3.3 mtpa ( million tons per annum) from it's current 10.8 mtpa production? That's an easy 30% guaranteed increase in production and thus earnings.

You want a Chun Chun call in O&G that can last 10 years unlike all your other stock calls? This is it.

Carimin has already fallen short.
Hibiscus is also falling short.
You bullish plays into DAYANG, NAIM, azrb etc etc will fall short in the next few quarters.

You want to practice true value investing? ( Tell me what investing is not based on future value versus today)


Buy wonderful companies at fair prices.
25/02/2019 08:22
calvintaneng Philip

I think PChem is ok. happy you switch from Public Bank to PetChem

For me I am very happy to invest from my angle

Multiple factors spur me in Pantech

I like Palm OIl counters. And Pantech is a proxy to Palm Oil. Even Felda is Top No. 2 shareholders. And Robert Kuok of Wilmar needs Pantech

One very Solid anchor is its perpetual contract with Petronas RAPID. And Petronas, too, is in Top 26 holder of Pantech

More than 150 companies need Pantech in Oil & Gas and Oil Palm industries directly or indirectly

The best of all is this

I am basically a Real Estate Investors

I been to Pengerang 3 times looking to buy house or land.
But came away empty handed because they were too expensive

THEN I SAW PANTECH BOUGHT 2 ACRES OF FREEHOLD INDUSTRIAL LAND IN PENGERANG FOR ONLY RM14.10 PSF

FREEHOLD INDUSTRIAL LANDS ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN RM80 TO RM200 PSF TODAY IN PENGERANG

My Johor Buddy the OSK RHB ISKANDAR TOP BOSS MR LAW BOUGHT A SINGLE STOREY HOUSE THERE FOR RM338K

AND ONE CALLED MEGAH LIM HARDWARE SHOP BOSS BOUGHT 3 STOREY SHOP THERE FOR RM900,000

ANOTHER OF MY JOHOR BUDDY BOUGHT 2 STOREY SHOP FROM MAHABUILDER IN DESARU FOR RM750,000

BUT THE INDUSTRIAL LANDS BOUGHT BY PANTECH BEATS THEM ALL AT ONLY RM14.10

I AM EXTREMELY HAPPY TO INVEST IN REAL ESTATE BY WAY OF BUYING INTO PANTECH

PANTECH HAS MORE THAN 10 INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE, LANDS & FACTORIES IN STRATEGIC LOCATIONS

AND THEY STATED REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS AS ONE OF 3 MAIN BUSINESSES

I ALSO INVESTED IN SUPER ENTERPRIZE WHEN I SAW THEY HAD 9 INDUSTRIAL ASSETS

AT RM1.25 SUPER ENTERPRIZE POWRED TO RM3.80 AND THEN TAKEN PRIVE FOR 200% UPSIDE

SEE

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/8656.jsp
25/02/2019 08:39
Fabien Extraordinaire calvin, i personally feel u are lil late in Dialog. Best times to invest in was 2-3 years ago.

growth stock is out of your circle of competence. perhaps stick to assets play suits you fine. Oriental, perhaps? Lol
25/02/2019 10:45
calvintaneng Now today i got someone whataspped me in Spore

He owns DIALOG for over 20 years since year 1996

Too shy to post

This is what he said about DIALOG

"Must share w u. 1996 dialog was listed at rm2.75. that the year my girl was born. i bough ik at ipo balloting n still hold on. that 1k is now worth abt rm620k. it paid for mygirl edu all the way to australia.

still got bal...n its now paying for my son college fee"
25/02/2019 12:09
stockraider THIS IS PRECISELY WHAT RAIDER SAID LOH..!!
MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT REALLY WORKS LIKE WHAT WARREN BUFFET SAYS!!
Posted by Sslee > Feb 24, 2019 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

"From Warren own word: My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance
Most of my gains in those early years, though, came from investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. Ben Graham had taught me that technique, and it worked. But a major weakness in this approach gradually became apparent: Cigar-butt investing was scalable only to a point. With large sums, it would never work well."
CORRECTLOH IMAGINE IF U PUMP RM 400M TO INSAS U ALMOST TAKEOVER THE COMPANY MAH...!! BUT WHAT IF U PUMP RM 200K TO RM 10M IT IS PERFECTLY FEASIBLE MAH...!!

Many of the retail investors in i3 are small sum investor thus nothing wrong if they follow Ben Graham’s investments in mediocre companies that traded at bargain prices. CORRECTLOH RETAIL SHOULD USE MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT LOH,....!!

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/business/dealbook/buffett-annual-le...
The conglomerate controlled by Warren E. Buffett suffered losses of $25.4 billion in the fourth quarter, according to Berkshire’s annual report that was released on Saturday.
Problems at Kraft Heinz, which on Thursday reported weak fourth-quarter earnings and a $15.4 billion write-down, also weighed on Berkshire, which owns a nearly 27 percent stake in the food company.BLACK SWAN EVENT MY HAPPEN AND THE RISK HIGH IF U OVER CONCENTRATE ON 1 STOCK MAH!

A word of caution keeping cash is also a form of prudent and conservative investment. Remember during the past market crash many people wish he/she had hold cash and spoil for choice to buy wonderful companies at the fraction of its price. YES KEEP SOME OF CASH BUT DO NOT FOLLOW SOOCHAI ICAP WHEN U KEEP EXCESS DO NOT KNOW HOW TO USE LOH..!

P/S: Growth is only good if it is above the cost of capital. By chasing growth with borrowing money is a risk. By assuming the success story can be duplicated and scaled up in foreign countries is a dangerous thought especially bread and butter business as many countries will give priority to their own local companies for self interest and food security. NOT TRUE LOH...WHETHER U INVEST USING CASH OR MARGIN IS THE SAME MAH...!! BUT THE RISK COME FROM LEVERAGING NOT INVESTMENT LOH..!!
IF U R GOOD STOCK PICKER AND STILL YOUNG LIKE JON CHIVO GO AHEAD USE SOME VITAMIN LEVERAGE LOH...!!
25/02/2019 12:41


 

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