Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Mon, 18 Mar 2019, 08:01 AM

 

OIL & GAS BULL RUN FOR MALAYSIA OGSE IS ON FOR 2019 DUE TO PENGERANG RAPID, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Hi guys,

This is a Special Year for Malaysia's Oil & Gas Stocks as PETRONAS IS RAMPING UP OIL PRODUCTION & OPTIMISING OIL EXTRACTION TO GET THAT EXTRA 54.7 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL FOR PENGERANG REINERY IN RAPID

How do we know?

Let's SEE SOME EVIDENCES

 

As early as Jan 2018 Petronas has awarded fresh projects for these 5 OGSE

Petronas hands out fresh deals to five contractors

Malaysian Petronas Carigali has awarded contracts for the provision of maintenance, construction and modification services (MCM) at its offshore facilities in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak to five local contractors.

Carimin Engineering Services, Dayang Enterprise, Deleum Primera, Petra Resources, Sapura Fabrication and its joint venture partner Borneo Seaoffshore Engineering were selected for the five-year contract with an option to extend an additional year which took effect in September last year, Petronas said on Tuesday.

Under the terms of the contract, the engineering and maintenance services will include topside major maintenance (TMM) and facilities improvement projects (FIP).

Petronas Vice President of Malaysia Assets & Chief Executive Officer of Petronas Carigali, Mohd Jukris Abdul Wahab, said new requirements were introduced to encourage collaboration across the industry supply chain.

“These contracts encompass requirements such as the utilization of marine vessels from Malaysia-owned companies only and the mandatory participation of 20 per cent local state service providers to spur value-added services that ensures growth in Malaysia’s oil and gas upstream services industry,” said Jukris.

 

So these 5 were selected

1) Carimin

2) Dayang

3) Deleum

4) Petra Resources (Penergy)

5) Sapura (Sapnrg)

 

With the Completion of RAPID and the rebounding of Crude Oil to USD65 per barrel PETRONAS is ramping up more Job Awards

 

 

Petronas forecasts up to 50 projects for 2018-2020

Petronas forecasts up to 50 projects for 2018-2020
 

The new year brought some good news

for Malaysian oil and gas (O&G) companies with Petroliam Nasional

(Petronas) announcing about 50 projects

between 2018 to 2020.

 

The national oil company said in its Petronas Activity Outlook 2018-2020 there would be about 20 greenfield and 30 brownfield projects, and out of this, all the greenfield projects will have completely new facilities developed while 10% of the brownfield projects may need new facilities.

 

In terms of segment prospects, 30% of the new projects will be for oil while 75% of the brownfield projects have the potential to yield more oil.

With about 100 awarded contract areas operated by 26 petroleum arrangement contractors, led mainly by the national company's E&P arm Petronas Carigali, which operates 60% of total Malaysian assets, there would appear to be quite a lot of work to go around, especially for Petronas Carigali subcontractors.

There was however also a warning that closer cost control and austerity is here to stay. The report emphasized that Petronas will continue to promote and enhance transparency in the O&G industry to ensure players are equipped with more information that can assist them with better resources as well as budget planning.

Petronas president and ceo Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin said in response to the 'Lower for Longer' oil price environment, issues such as cost compression and industry collaborations are now a top priority.

"This drives a rallying call for everyone in the ecosystem to build a robust, globally competitive Malaysian Oil and Gas Services and Equipment (OGSE) industry that will sustain the market turbulence and emerge stronger," he said.

With an average production of 1.7m barrels a day forecasted over the next five years, Malaysia has a robust pipeline of potential projects focused on developing greenfield projects while maximising ultimate recovery of brownfield projects, he concluded.

 
Posted 03 January 2018

PETRONAS GIVING OUT

30 BROWN FIELD PROJECTS (OLD ESTABLISHED PROJECTS)

Brown means matured old Oil Field & Old Oil Platform that need a lot of refurbishing

PENERGY has mostly brown field. Its latest quarter showed a jumped in 61% revenue. Indicating very feverish work

20 GREEN FIELDS (BRAND NEW VENTURES)

These are Totally new area starting on a clean slate. So lots of New Equipments are needed by import or fabrication

This wil give lots of profits to all OGSE Players

In a time when there is fear of trade war & recession this single Act of Petronas in giving out so many JOb Awards will be good for Malaysian OGSE and supporting industries

Let's search further

 

The above news was in January

See 6 months later on July 2018

31 · Jul · 2018
PETRONAS Expands Its VDP Programme In Collaboration With Industry Players
Media Releases
 
As part of its initiative to boost the capabilities of local companies in Malaysia's oil and gas industry, PETRONAS today launched VDPx - a new vendor development scheme under the company's existing Vendor Development Programme (VDP) to be implemented in collaboration with major industry players in the country.
 
Under this new VDP scheme, a total of 18 organisations, comprising six Petroleum Arrangement Contractors (PACs) and 12 Oil & Gas Service and Equipment (OGSE) companies, will replicate PETRONAS' VDP programme, to reach out to more local vendors and further amplify its benefits to the industry as well as the nation.
 
 

As RAPID IS IN FINAL COMPLETION PETRONAS AGAIN EXPANDED FROM 5 OGSE PLAYERS TO 12

See

Oil & Gas Service and Equipment (OGSE) companies
  1. Perbadanan Urusan Kejuruteraan dan Limbungan Brooke
  2. Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd
  3. Serba Dinamik Holdings Berhad
  4. Uzma Engineering Sdn Bhd
  5. Asian Supply Base Sdn Bhd
  6. Sapura Energy Berhad
  7. Schlumberger WTA (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd
  8. Halliburton Energy Services (M) Sdn Bhd
  9. Velesto Energy Berhad (Formerly known as UMW Oil & Gas Corporation Berhad)
  10. Deleum Berhad
  11. Eastern Pacific Industrial Corporation Berhad
  12. Petra Resources Sdn Bhd

 

Of the 12 these ones are listed in KLSE

 

2. Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering

3. Serba Dinamil

6. Sapura Energy

9. Velesto (Umw OG)

10. Deleum

12. Petra Resorces (Own by Penergy)

 

 

Note:

11. Eastern Pacific Industrial Corporation Berhad (EPIC)

EPIC was once listed with Trengganu Govt & AZRB as Top 2 Holders

Trengganu Govt bought over EPIC from AZRB and took it private. Now AZRB has 2 supply Base contracts. One brown field in Kemaman, One Greenfield in TOK BALI. TOK BALI expected to get fresh customer base as well as current customers of EPIC, from Thailand & from Vietnam

 

Let's look at the Oil Production in Malaysia currently

Malaysia crude oil production was 661 & 675 barrels for 2017 & 2018

Malaysia Crude Oil Production

 

 

 

 

And Natural Gas?

73 billion cunic meter (Malaysia is Top No. 12 in the World for Natural Gas Production

 

NOW ADD ANOTHER 54.7 MILLION EXTRA BARREL OF CRUDE OIL NEEDED FOR PETRONAS RAPID

HOW BIG IS THE PIE FOR ALL OGSE PLAYERS (BOTH UPSTREAM & DOWN STREAM: BOTH OFF SHORE AND ON SHORE)

 

Just take only the Extra 54.7 Million barrel oils needed

 

 

If Oil Price is USD67  then 67 x 4.00 = Rm268 per barrel

54.7 millions then x 268 = 

 

RM14, 472,000,000

 

That is Extra Rm14.4 Billions Revenue

 

The Pie is Big Enough for all OGSE 

 

 IF WE INCLUDE THE 675 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AT NORMAL PRODUTION THEN IT WILL BE RM10 BILLIONS REVENUE.

AND IF WE INCLUDE THE 73 BILLION CM OF NATURAL GAS THEN THE TOTAL REVENUE IS A MIND BOGGLING RM300 BILLIONS PER YEAR FOR PETRONAS & ALL OGSE PLAYERS

 

 

Now The Projected REvenue & Profits are ALL THERE

But to get that NEW EXTRA 54.7 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL NEED NEW EQUIPMENT, MATERIAL & INVESTMENTS

Where to get that sum for all  beleaguered OGSE as they have faced many quarters of lean times?

 

The Answer is NEXT

 

 

 

 

shaping a vibrant oil and gas ecosystem,” Tan Sri Wan Zulkiflee said.

The participation of the main contractors in this programme also provides the additional support needed by subcontractors to secure financial assistance in carrying out their functions. It also largely signifies the shared commitment towards strengthening the industry as a whole,” he highlighted.

The new Vendor Financing Programme will also benefit the Bumiputera OGSE sector including those under the Lestari programme — a recently launched vendor-based development programme by the Ministry of Entrepreneur Development and PETRONAS. For further enquiries on the programme, please contact pdtcorporateprojects@petronas.com.

 

NOW YOU SEE IT

 

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 22): This News still fresh as today is 26th of Feb 2019 (only 4 days ag0)

 

 

PETRONAS HAS ROPED IN THESE 5 BANKS

Export-Import Bank of Malaysia Berhad, HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad, Maybank, RHB Islamic Bank Berhad and United Overseas Bank (Malaysia)

Bhd.

 

to finance the OGSE players

Especially The new Vendor Financing Programme will also benefit the Bumiputera OGSE 

 

 

 

 

SO THIS IS IT

 

WITH SO MUCH NEW CASH INFUSION INTO THE OIL & GAS SPACE ALL OGSE ENTITES ARE BOUND TO DO WELL

 

AS THEY SAY IN HOKKIEN, "CUI LAI LEOW - CHUN AI KIA"

OR "WATER HAS COME SHIPS START SAILING"

 

 

 

 

Calvin has picked these so far for this O&G run

 

1) Carimin at 39.5 sen (Up already. )

2) Naim (which holds dayang) at 50 sen. Up crazily. Be cautious (Latest update: Naim reported fantastic result)

3) AZRB today 42 sen (Can buy while still cheap)

4) Pantech 60 sen (Price is fair now. Will still go up some more)

 

HAPPY INVESTING

 

Best Regards

 

Calvin Tan Research

 

Singapore

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
CARIMIN 0.95 +0.02 (2.15%) 23,378,900 
DAYANG 1.62 -0.09 (5.26%) 56,294,900 
DELEUM 1.10 -0.02 (1.79%) 413,600 
PENERGY 1.10 -0.05 (4.35%) 844,100 
SAPNRG 0.36 -0.005 (1.37%) 225,966,400 

  Be the first to like this.
 
slts old news
26/02/2019 13:56
teoct The average production of 1.7 million barrels per day quoted, appreciate confirmation of this figure as currently available data only show about 700,000 bpd of oil from Energy Commission - Malaysia Energy Information Hub, thank you.
26/02/2019 13:57
calvintaneng teoct The average production of 1.7 million barrels per day quoted, appreciate confirmation of this figure as currently available data only show about 700,000 bpd of oil from Energy Commission - Malaysia Energy Information Hub, thank you.
26/02/2019 13:57


Correct if you take official statistic of

670 million barrels per year

Divided by 365 days will be 1,849,315.06849

1.85 Milions Barrels per day!!!
26/02/2019 17:13
calvintaneng https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/193318.jsp
27/02/2019 00:04
calvintaneng https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/193594.jsp
27/02/2019 00:04
teoct The annual production of Malaysia never exceeded 300,000,000 barrels per year and now only average below 250,000,000 barrels per year. And this gives about 700,000 barrels per day. Please check the sources quoted as well as www.statista.com/statistics/609019/oil-production-in-malaysia/

Thank you.
27/02/2019 10:51
calvintaneng Teoct

If true then all the more very good for OGSE

Now there will be a Big Shortfall in crude oil

Then?

THEN VERY VERY VERY GOOD FOR OGSE

AS ALL WILL RAMP UP NEW EXPLORATION AND STEP UP OIL EXTRACTION

AZRB, PANTECH AND DIALOG
27/02/2019 13:27
calvintaneng If Petronas is a country
Then these 5 are states

Carimin
Deleum
Sapnrg
Penergy
Dayang

If Petronas is an army
Then these 5 are generals

Carimin
Dayang
Deleum
Penergy
Sapnrg

Carimin the baby is up
Dayang Taiko is also up
Deleum is ok for its dividends
Sapnrg needs to overcome its heavy debt load

Penergy?

This is the One!

Who is this?

This one is better than baby carimin because it has more assets

So price has overtaken carimin today

Will penergy also rise up in price and overtake Dayang also?

Ha. That is a high calling

Hmm
Let Calvin do a serious investigation into penergy, carimin and dayang

Which will run first to cross the finishing line finally?

Stay tuned

This oil and gas bull run getting more and more exciting now

Today azrb also run up
Pantech has fallen behind

Ha.always buy the laggard. So for those who don't have pantech? Opportunity to buy some on weakness

NO bull can run up in a straight line
Bll must rest. Recharge and then run again
27/02/2019 18:00
calvintaneng SEE VIDEO ON PETRA ENERGY

http://www.petraenergy.com.my/cvideo/pebvideo.html
28/02/2019 10:53


 

375  384  489  646 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 SAPNRG 0.36-0.005 
 SAPNRG-WA 0.145+0.01 
 ORION 0.205+0.015 
 DESTINI 0.34+0.025 
 PUC 0.105-0.005 
 IRIS 0.15+0.01 
 APFT 0.02+0.005 
 ARMADA 0.20+0.01 
 HSI-C3V 0.125+0.02 
 DAYANG 1.62-0.09 
Partners & Brokers