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THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Sun, 10 Jan 2021, 10:10 PM

 

Commentators Lost Their Way - Koon Yew Yin (And KYY stupidity knows no bounds?) Calvin adds (Pls don't use vulgarity in comments

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Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Latest post: Mon, 9 Apr 2018, 08:41 AM

  

Commentators Lost Their Way - Koon Yew Yin

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I have been reading almost all the commentaries on I3investor forum, especially on my favourite counters which are JAKS, Eversndai and Hengyuan. Most of the commentators are writing senseless rubbish. They have nothing good to write and look like they have lost their way. If they are really smart they should write articles or fairly long commentaries and post them for readers to comment.

There is an old Chinese saying quote “If you don’t have anything intelligent or something good to say, just shut up, no one will know that you are dump and deft because when you open your mouth, people will know how dump and stupid you really are”.

In the stock market, almost all day-traders lose money because they buy and sell too often. They make less money than the cost for transaction and government stamp duty. As a result, they lose money.

Most of the short-term investors also lose money because they have no time to read and research. They believe in rumours and are too eager to place their bet. Usually rumours do not come true. As a result, they also lose money.  

 

All punters act like they are betting on horses in the race tract. They believe in hopes and dreams. They believe the race guide and what the horse trainers and jockeys say.

My horse racing experience: Let me tell my experience in betting on horses in the race tract. About 50 years ago, my 2 business partners and I bought a race horse and we name the horse Betalou. We engaged the best trainer and jockey to make sure that we could make money. Horses perform better on certain weather conditions. Some horses can run faster on wet and soft ground while other horses can run faster on dry and hard ground.

To be able to make money, the horse owners must know their own horse whether their horse can run faster on soft or hard ground.

In our case, our horse could run faster on soft tract and when to let the horse run so that the horse could win the race. To make the most money we must also know which race had the most pool money. It was Gold Cup race when most people placed their bets. We asked our horse trainer and jockey if we should bet on our horse. They said we should not bet on our own horse but bet on another horse because our trainer had instructed our jockey to pull our horse to reduce the speed to let the other horse win. So, we believe our horse trainer and did not bet on our own horse but placed bet on the other horse.

As soon as the gate opened, our jockey started whipping and kicking the horse and our horse was leading all the way to win the race.

I will not forget this lesson.

Just like in the stock market, we must know whom we can trust. As far as I know I can trust Mr Ooi Teik Bee because he openly writes to tell every body what he is buying or selling. That is why I gave him more than Rm 10 million to invest for me.

Another person is KYY because I also like OTB, I openly write to tell you what I am buying or selling. As an English saying: I put money where my mouth is. I openly declare I have bought a lot of JAKS, Eversendai and Hengyuan.   

I am a long-term investor and I don’t buy and sell so often. Record shows that long-term investors make the most money. The reasons are that they have good foresight and patience which are the keys to successful investing. They can afford to wait patiently to buy or sell and they are not afraid to buy some more shares whenever the prices drop during correction.    

 

 

Calvin comments:

Good morning all,

I could hardly believe my eyes when Uncle KYY now got warped ideas that people like KcChongNz and other i3 Forum Sifus are brushed aside and lumped as writing senseless rubbish?

 

Another one is the admission of blatant cheating even in rigging hore racing?

See Uncle Koon's own words:

 

They said we should not bet on our own horse but bet on another horse because our trainer had instructed our jockey to pull our horse to reduce the speed to let the other horse win. So, we believe our horse trainer and did not bet on our own horse but placed bet on the other horse.

 

THIS STATEMENT REVEALS THE HEART OF A DISHONEST PERSON WHO PULL STRING ( IN THIS CASE PULL HORSE)  TO WIN BY HOOK OR BY CROOK?

 

Another person is KYY because I also like OTB, I openly write to tell you what I am buying or selling. As an English saying: I put money where my mouth is. I openly declare I have bought a lot of JAKS, Eversendai and Hengyuan.   

 

THIS ONE ANOTHER POST BY A PERSON WITH LITTLE CONSCIENCE

they say, 'SELF PRAISE IS INTERNATIONAL DISGRACE'

 

 

 

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ks55 Don't trust him lah.
He is a market operator.
You still think he is a value investor?
09/04/2018 9:17 AM
calvintaneng MAYDAY!
MAYDAY!!
mAYDAY!!!

MAYDAY FOR THOSE SORCHAI CAUGHT IN SENDAI

UNCLE KOON BY HOOK OR BY CROOK WILL NOW GORENG UP HENGYUAN FOR PRIDE AND FOR PERSONAL GLORY

HE MIGHT JUST DUMP ALL SENDAI TO SUPPORT HENGYUAN

SO YOU GUYS ARE DOOMED!!

BETTER SELL FAST FAST BEFORE HE UNLOAD!!!
09/04/2018 9:18 AM
calvintaneng MAYDAY!
MAYDAY!!
mAYDAY!!!

MAYDAY FOR THOSE SORCHAI CAUGHT IN JAKS

UNCLE KOON BY HOOK OR BY CROOK WILL NOW GORENG UP HENGYUAN FOR PRIDE AND FOR PERSONAL GLORY

HE MIGHT JUST DUMP ALL JAKS TO SUPPORT HENGYUAN

SO YOU GUYS ARE DOOMED!!

BETTER SELL FAST FAST BEFORE HE UNLOAD!!!
09/04/2018 9:19 AM
smithy6264 how he read other people comments when he disallowed other people to comment on his post?? by re-post like this??
09/04/2018 9:19 AM
ks55 Operator will lose most when tsunami comes.
This time is Donald Duck tsunami.
He will never escape this time with 160m Jaks and 70m Sendai.
No way dumb dumb idiot will buy when he sells......resultant?
He will stuck there and most probably has to pass them to his cucu.......
09/04/2018 9:21 AM
qqq3 the ones crying is not KYY......lol
09/04/2018 9:31 AM
qqq3 and lets be honest, did KYY cheat anybody?
09/04/2018 9:35 AM
ks55 PLP again?
09/04/2018 9:36 AM
ks55 Stockmanmy loved to PLP
New stockmanmy also loves to PLP?
09/04/2018 9:38 AM
ks55 I never dream of PLP market operator..........
09/04/2018 9:38 AM
ks55 If really want to PLP, should have PLP John Soh very very long time ago.
09/04/2018 9:39 AM
calvintaneng Ks55

ppp3 is one of Alibaba's 40 thieves lah!
09/04/2018 9:48 AM
qqq3 lets be honest....did KYY cheat anybody?
09/04/2018 9:58 AM
qqq3 people want to buy , keep mid/ long term....and tell you reasons he buy.....cannot meh?
09/04/2018 9:59 AM
CharlesT A lot..
09/04/2018 10:00 AM
qqq3 up almost $ 3 already.......any time I want to sell, I also can get almost $3.
09/04/2018 10:00 AM
calvintaneng qqq3?

queue to plp?
queue for dedak?
queue like a dog?
09/04/2018 10:04 AM
CharlesT This round Calvin lost his cool also...lol
09/04/2018 10:11 AM
Patron Uncle , go and get Tan Eng in Singapore and sue him. Talk to your lawyer.
09/04/2018 10:17 AM
calvintaneng ChalesT

No lah.
Calvin is cool as cucumber
09/04/2018 10:18 AM
supersaiyan3 做馬!

Well, the gamblers/speculators will never change, or perhaps only a small percentage will ever change.
09/04/2018 10:22 AM
martinam When KYY promote any stock, jump in and just wait. Yes, just hold on to it and count your profits!. Later, you see the share move rapidly down in high volume, sell it and take your profits and be happy. Simple formula. Don't have to worry about what is to happen to the stock (business), five, ten years down the road. Is there any guarantee that you'll be around then? Some analysts promote stocks which hardly move up at all and you don't know when they will do so. They will be more credible, if they show their money where their mouth is - like KYY. I for one don't think that I can wait for five, ten years as I may not be around by then.
09/04/2018 10:47 AM
qqq3 calvin...people come here to make money...not to get lectured
09/04/2018 10:51 AM
qqq3 do what you think is best.....but did KYY cheat anybody?
09/04/2018 10:53 AM
calvintaneng Posted by martinam > Apr 9, 2018 10:47 AM | Report Abuse

When KYY promote any stock, jump in and just wait. Yes, just hold on to it and count your profits!. Later, you see the share move rapidly down in high volume, sell it and take your profits and be happy. Simple formula. Don't have to worry about what is to happen to the stock (business), five, ten years down the road. Is there any guarantee that you'll be around then? Some analysts promote stocks which hardly move up at all and you don't know when they will do so. They will be more credible, if they show their money where their mouth is - like KYY. I for one don't think that I can wait for five, ten years as I may not be around by then.


SEE KYY SAID HE HOLDING HENGYUAN FOR 3 YEARS TO GET 300%?

IS THAT A CREDIBLE STATEMENT?

AND ALL WHO BOUGHT WHY KYY BUY WILL SELL AT CORRECT TIMING?

WHAT IF SOME ARE TOO GREEDY AND GET CARRIED AWAY?

THEN LEFT HIGH AND DRY LIKE

XINQUAN ABOVE RM1.00
MUDAJAYA ABOVE RM2.70
JTIASA ABOVE RM2.60
FOCUS LUMBER AT RM3.00
LATITUDE AT ABOVE RM7.00?

JAKS ABOVE RM1.60
SENDAI ABOVE RM1.30

AND NOW ANOTHER FRENZIED PUNTING ON HENGYUAN?
09/04/2018 10:56 AM
martinam Calvin, I am referring to the current situation. I am not interested in the past. As a fellow Christian, I wouldn't want to delve into someone's past actions. Neither do I want to delve in someone's present motives, which God only knows. I react to the present investment environment and act accordingly. If I start to moralise in my investment decisions, it will be the time to leave the share market altogether.
09/04/2018 11:27 AM
Stockgod8 You can see from the timing of his article, he is recommending SENDAI at the top. What happened next few days? CRASH!
*Disclaimer : I didn't buy only sozai does.
09/04/2018 2:57 PM
Stockgod8 And what about the article "XINQUAN is a good bet", yeah a good holland bet.
09/04/2018 2:58 PM
OhTheBee (otb) A truly wise man will never self praise, bcos he knows there are a lot of wiser people who are wiser than him in this world. In this context, Calvin I support your argument that

THIS ONE ANOTHER POST BY A PERSON WITH LITTLE CONSCIENCE
they say, 'SELF PRAISE IS INTERNATIONAL DISGRACE'





>>>kyy said >>>Just like in the stock market, we must know whom we can trust. As far as I know I can trust Mr Ooi Teik Bee because he openly writes to tell every body what he is buying or selling. That is why I gave him more than Rm 10 million to invest for me.

Another person is KYY because I also like OTB, I openly write to tell you what I am buying or selling. As an English saying: I put money where my mouth is. I openly declare I have bought a lot of JAKS, Eversendai and Hengyuan.
09/04/2018 6:07 PM
Benjamin Poh Business valuation is an art more than a science. It may be tempted to look at the historical balance sheets, P/Ls and cash flow statements for clues on the current valuation of a company. If you are accounting savvy, analysis of balance sheets, P/L and cash flow statements will likely help to you uncover some hidden value that may not be obvious to a lot of investors based on technical analysis or inferior analysts' reports to buy shares. But the limitations of accounting information is its historical in nature, some valuable assets not meeting accounting recognition criteria will not be reflected in accounts, good business model and management cannot be discovered through analysis of financial statements.

Nevertheless, financial statements analysis is the first starting point to check how healthy a company's financial position and performance currently and in the past.
As a value investor, I always start with objective analysis by checking the latest balance sheet for clue on company's cash and short term investment, liquidity, long-term debts position and any valuable assets e.g. real estates in prominent location not fully reflected in the balance sheets. Then, I look at the P/L position in the past to discern the normalized earnings of the company whether that normalized earnings consistent with the cash flow statements presented to ensure accounting earnings were actually translated into actual cash flow to the company concerned. Lastly, I will examine the subjective side of the business by evaluation the company's earning sources and business model to check whether the company can compete successfully within its industry. The subjective side of the business part is difficult to perform due to future uncertainties beyond our human ability to predict. That's why Warren Buffett always buy companies with simple business model within his circle of competence to understand so that he is more likely to know the future cash flow of a company to actually put a value on it.

Having said that, how to use the above value investing approach to value Hengyuan? First, the company latest quarterly report 31 Dec 2017, balance sheet showed cash in bank and FD holding about RM510 mil, current ratio is about 4, total current assets is RM2.8 bil more than cover its entire liabilities (both short and long term) of RM2 bil. Latest quarterly EPS was 61.18 cents (profit after taxation is about RM180 mil) with cash flow from operating activities after depreciation was about 311 mil. It does has a very healthy financial position and performance recently.

We can see its operating results started to improve in year 2015 till today with oil price hovers around USD60-70 today thanks to the OPEC production curb, the world commodities price is picking up with the growth in world economy but the likelihood of large fluctuation either move up or down substantially in oil price in the near future is dim as concerns over the volume of US shale oils supply, Federal Reserve tightening policy and US-China trade wars will cap its upward trends in future.

Hengyuan is a cyclical company which cash flows and earnings will be moving up during the times when commodities cycle is picking up, so one should expect its market price to go wild when the cycle is peak like the year 2008 and the recent year 2014. So it is hard to find normalized earnings and cash flow of Hengyuan in the past, it is about timing of buying the shares during commodities picking up time. Like what I said in the beginning, valuation is an art more than a science. I prefer to put a range of value on a company and see how much margin of safety I have if I were to buy a company's shares at market value today. Usually I require at least 30% margin of safety before I will invest in the shares.

If one is to review the balance sheet of the company, its NTA is RM5.9 per share, if using earnings base to value I will conservatively use the latest quarterly EPS 61.18 cents (EPS RM2.4 per year) as a guide for the year 2018 and using PE ratio 6 (due to small capital company), one can come to a value of RM14.40. IF one would to put a weighting of 20% on book value and 80% on earnings based value, then one can come to a valuation of Hengyuan at about RM12.70. Market price today is about RM9.2, margin of safety is about 40%. So it does provide a good margin of safety for the value investor to buy at the current market price.

The above is my personal impartial opinion, please check with your financial advisers before you invest in the shares.
09/04/2018 6:07 PM
calvintaneng Benjamin Poh,

Thanks for your thorough input.

This is how i3 forumers should contribute.

Now Calvin thinks this is based on present objective calculations.

The future is unknown but we can conclude by deduction.

TNB moving to solar power.
Cars going EV
And production facilities need costly upgrade.
Competition from RAPID.
Limition of space for expansion in PD
And some questions?
Insiders are now China people. How trustworthy are they?
Why Rm2 profit only 2 sen divvy?

Will it be another red chip china operations?

So there is a discount. Just like Bj Corp with Nta over rm1.50 has a discount
09/04/2018 6:18 PM
Benjamin Poh Dear Calvin,

Thanks for appreciation my contributions.

Alternative energy does threaten fossil fuel consumption in future, but it now only comprises very small portion of total energy consumed in the world. Changes to alternative energy use does take long time and affordability and technology issues in developing countries like Asia n Africa countries. Most importantly Political issues inside the big oil companies and government.

A PE of 6 does take into the discount of small company and liquidity issues. From the value investor perspective based on assets, profitability and cash flow positions, I remain positive on its current market price being attractive to hold unless oil price move substantially up or down in short term of which the probability is small in this environment.
09/04/2018 6:43 PM
Apple6Splus Back to basic : if Oil Price is stable or moving upwards, just keep Hengyuan or Petron
09/04/2018 7:10 PM
Benjamin Poh If oil price moves substantially up, this will increase refinery cost. But if it moves substantially down, demand will be depressed n revenue might not cover fixed cost of the plant. Hovering about RM60-65 Will be profitable.
09/04/2018 7:42 PM
calvintaneng Post removed. Why?
10/04/2018 1:01 AM
Benjamin Poh Calvin,

Your red flags do not seem convincing enough. These are all your personal views without much evidence to support when those events are going to happen in future and to what extent its impacts on oil price in the near future. Even if it might happen in the next 10-20 years, the stock market cannot and difficult to discount that happenings in the next 10-20 years.

Changes of external auditor will matter a lot not internal auditor as it is common to have several internal auditors in the audit committee. Don't hold personal bias against all china companies and people, as an investor u should look at the facts and figures, not to speculate what your belief unless you obtain illegal inside information about the company!

I do admit small capital companies tend to be manipulated by some syndicates, but today you can see even some oil companies e.g. Petronm, Petdag, pchem, petgas... their shared all went up, don't tell me all these companies are manipulated by syndicates!!!
10/04/2018 1:32 AM


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