Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 12:32 AM

 

'THE GREATER FOOL THEORY By Dr Neoh Soon Kean (Excerpts from STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT), Calvin Tan comments

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This is an excerpt from STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT In Malaysia And Singapore by Dr Neoh Soon Kean, the Benjamin Graham of Malaysia. Year of printing 1985

 

THE GREATER FOOL THEORY (Page 67 Last paragraph)

This is a theory that is usually very popular during the immature phase of a stock market's development. More of the followers of this theory are not aware that the trading system which they believe in goes by this peculiar name. From the stock market's behaviour during the past three booms, we can say that many Malaysians/Singaporeans appear to be strong supporters of this theory. This theory was very popular in the US during the 1920s but since then, it has fallen out of favour even though pockets of true believers still appear from time to time.

 

    In essence, believers of this theory hold that stock prices are not dependent on anything tangible but rather dependent on the continual appearance of more people who are willing to purchase the stocks at an even higher price {these people are the so-called 'greater fools'). Thus, it neither matters what price one buys a stock nor that the stock's price is ridiculously high by any normal standard of measurement. Thus the believers of this school of thought hold the view that whatever stock one buys can always be sold at a higher price because there will always be greater fools than themselves. Thus, it is fine to buy MUIB at $24.00 because there will be another person foolish (or brave) enough to pay $26.00 for it. Believers of the greater fool theory never for a minute think that the supply of fools will be exhausted and that they may be the final purchaser before the crash.

 

   During every stock market boom, there are usually a large number of believers of the greater fool theory and some of them actually make a lot of money on the way up. Some of them get out in time by finding some greater fools to take over their hot potatoes in the nick of time but many find that they themselves end up as the greatest fools because there is no one else willing to bid up the price anymore. Needless to say, the Greater Fool Theory is a much discredited one among academics and most professionals. But it still finds many adherents. Why is this so? Everyone is having too much fun, (that is, making so much money) on the way up that they do not want to leave the market. George Goodman, writing under the pen name of 'Adam Smith' has this wonderful parable to explain how people are caught up in the web of the Greater Fool Theory and do not know when to get out.

 

We are all at a wonderful ball where champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the rules, that at some moment, terrorists will burst in through the terrace doors, killing many and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early will be saved, but the ball is so splendid that no one wants to leave while there is still time. Everyone wants to enjoy one more dance and sip one more glass of champagne. So everyone kept asking: "What time is it? What time is it?" We look around and find that all the clocks have no hands.

 

  This may be a surrealist's way of describing the stock market but Goodman's parable has a great deal of truth in it. Of course, we know that in every speculative boom of the past, the 'terrorists' did come when most of the guests were still enjoying themselves at the ball. As 'Adam Smith' implies, nobody knows when a speculative boom will end but end it must for that is the rule. At every speculative boom, not many of the small speculators escaped with their gains made on the way up. Most of the smaller speculators known to me eventually lost all their gains and much more than what has been gained.

Some even lost a large part of their original capital. Thus on the next occassion when you happen to find yourselves at this type of a ball, try to leave early. The problem is that once one is caught up in the fun and games of the party, one is apt to lose touch with reality. Chances are that believers of the Greater Fool Theory will hang on to the bitter end, only to be slaughtered. It is better to miss a few dances or a few glasses of champagne than lose one's life. 

In concluding this section, an anecdote about Bernarde Baruch, generally acknowledged to be the greatest stock traders of the 1920s is related. He was once asked how it was that he remained  so rich while many of his contemporaries had declared bankrupt. This was his splendid answer: 'I always sold too early.'

 

Calvin comments:

This greater fool theory could be applied to stocks like IFCA, Sumatech & others

IFCA was pumped up from 7 sen to the lofty peak of Rm1.87 due to the GST Hype

It later went 3 times limit down from Rm1.87 to below 50 sen wiping out sorchai, sotong, water fish, ikan bilis, sardines & what not.

I have people telling me I missed IFCA on the way up. Calvin does not go gambling in casino Greater Fool Type of Stocks.  And how they missed a fortune on the way up  due to my warnings.  And how they finally lost all their 'profits and all their capitals' for overstaying. Now I am not here to tell you how to punt or gamble. I am here to warn of a Greater Fool Stock.

All will have to be responsible for your own actions in investment. 

 

Right now there are many new fangled perils of New Glove wannabees theme

Vaccines theme, PPE theme - MANY MANY GREATER FOOL STOCKS THAT WILL BANKRUPT ALL ITS PARTICIPANTS

 

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calvintaneng Posted by lextcs > Sep 25, 2020 8:31 AM | Report Abuse

what happened to the fiberization story n netX? like what u said...many many greater fools will bankrupt all its participants....im afraid netx already done that.

Calvin replies:

I disagree

Fiberisation theme is the future

Although progress has slowed down it is still ongoing

Fiberisation is the Information highway what North-South Highway is to the physical highway.

Microsoft is in Johor to build a data center & fiberisation in Sarawak & Sabah still on

Netx is still an inspiring work in progress
25/09/2020 8:38 AM
lextcs no good writer writes a dull story and expect the book to be on the NYT best seller. No one likes to read ;- "today I woke up, brush my teeth, wash my face, put on my makeup, go to jamban, bla bla bla…" Alas! people wants to hear exciting stories like how much billions are going to be rolled out for the NFCP deals. who gets who who gets what knot. good writers gets paid hamdsomely I must say...they are like frogs actually...writes as their masters command them to write. But of course CTE is different lor...he is writes for himself...or is he?
25/09/2020 8:38 AM
calvintaneng Dull story?

No leh

Jaks at 40 sen on Dec 8 2014 was a dull story when Calvin posted

See

Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 16, 2014 3:00 PM | Report Abuse X

Whoa!

Top boss bought at 44 cents and above, millions of them. Anything below 40 cents is a bargain!

So don't wait or else Jaks jump Jump JUMP Up And Away!


It was dull at 40 sen but when Jaks jumped to Rm1.50 and turned into a hot stock I warned & warned all to sell
For now there are so many better stocks than Jaks

Then the OGSE story
Carimin at 39 sen was dull. Carimin turned into hot currymee at Rm1.40 and I warned all to sell

OGSE was a cyclical success story for many who bought Dayang, Penergy, Carimin & Uzma when prices were cheap & dull.
Now game over

NFCP story still in back burner. Will come back again

The Glove Story?

Supermax i bought at only Rm1.73 & Comfort glove was cheap at 88.5 sen in April 2020.

Both Sold already. Supermax made more than 1,000% profit

So?

Never a dull moment if you can track the right cyclical stocks right at the beginning when things are still dull & unloved
25/09/2020 8:57 AM
calvintaneng Why notion also pump and dump?

Notion business in digital camera now impacted because few people could travel

Less tourists mean less people using digital camera

So notion will be badly hit

So they divert to face masks in USA?

That is a stupid idea as China got huge glut in face masks

After that notion cooked up another medical glove supply story?

Where got enough even Top glove got not enough

So those who chased notion have no idea
25/09/2020 10:16 AM
calvintaneng There are only 8 Genuine Glove stocks in Malaysia listed

And 3 in Spore

Ug healthcare
Sri Trang
Riverstone


Forget the rest

All new glove wannabes cannot because of these factors

1. There are no ceramic hand molds for this year or even up to Mid 2021 as they are preSOLD and need to book ahead

2. Also glove hand former Dipper now take 6 to 9 months for setting up

That again will be earliest June 2021

And even after can set up there is now not enough glove chemicals in the market

Even if have then there is the need for license to sell as medical gloves are controlled

Both from Malaysia Govt and then USA Govt

So to go through all the process it will take up to year 2022 for any sales

Again there is the barrier to entry

Will surgeons and doctors use new unknown brands of medical gloves still not tested ?

That is the reason why not to chase so called new glove hyped up rumour stocks like mqtech and others out to con the ignoramus
25/09/2020 12:00 PM
lextcs there's another genuine glove manufacture. But its listed in ASX. located or rather hiding far away in a district called Beranang in Sgor. 4 lines producing millions of nitrile gloves. CTE, why don't u make a com research n write up a jolly good story of this gem in the making.
25/09/2020 1:09 PM
lextcs then there is this Mercator Medical listed in Poland....factory in Thailand...price now is a mind blowing 411++ polish dollar. Up from 6.00 only 6 months ago.
25/09/2020 1:12 PM
lextcs So guys if you want a good play in the gloves sector again...u may n I repeat U MAY want to look @ Voltage Ip Ltd 0.085 oz cents. In a super strong wind even kangaroos can FLY!!!
25/09/2020 1:16 PM
calvintaneng Don't know about others

Ug healthcare ok like Supermax

It excels in ASP

Sri Trang to diversified

In any case Malaysia sold down by foreign fund now cheap

Stick with Klse
25/09/2020 3:25 PM
calvintaneng 3 other pump and dump greater fool stocks

1. Parlo

2. Gets

3. Ktb

All with no margin of safety at all
25/09/2020 7:39 PM
scenery Netx is printing money,

dumping, printing, dumping, printing,

dumping, printing, dumping, printing,

dumping, printing, dumping, printing,

continue dumping, printing, not stop yet...
25/09/2020 7:48 PM
stockraider Don over look Netx mah...it is trading at net cash value now mah...!!

Opportunity buy loh...!
25/09/2020 7:50 PM
apolloang komark got pump and dump?
25/09/2020 7:56 PM
Michael Kwok Ivory got Ong.Only 14 cents .NTA 79 cents.Call buy lah.Calvin is tht ok.....
25/09/2020 8:42 PM
calvintaneng Ivory is property now banks will be stringent in lending.

Continue with medical gloves or can consider palm oil stocks as Cpo above Rm2800 good times are coming back

Komark is overvalued. Any one got komark can sell and buy Netx. Same people behind komark as in charge of Netx

Netx is still an inspiring work in progress. Even alibaba and facebook needed lots of funding in early days
25/09/2020 8:52 PM
Michael Kwok Tq.I use some of ur approach.By the way,I'm former Anzo at 3 cents.I think u know I promote Anzo like hell last year.No regret.Im learning a lot from here.
25/09/2020 9:18 PM
Foker Dr Neoh? Who cares. You can't be Benjamin graham in Malaysia. Here, the stock market is lousy.
25/09/2020 10:09 PM
apolloang ivory no PN17 yet ar? the main office got 3 lifts but only 1 operating.boss no money to pay for maintainence since MCO
25/09/2020 10:38 PM
calvintaneng Foker,

Dr Neoh of Dynaquest is the Benjamin Graham of Malaysia.

Dr. Neoh in his monthly digest recommended great stocks like Scientex at Rm1. 60, skpres at 9.5 sen, daibochi at 60 sen before they split or gave bonus issues

Many have become millionaires and some multi millionaires today because of his guidance
25/09/2020 10:45 PM
calvintaneng And foker,

If only you know what Dr Neoh described the lousy market as you say. More than that. Even in his booked dated 1985 Dr Neoh already gave ample warning after warning about sharks and con man syndicates in Klse

He called it

JAWS 1

JAWS 2

JAWS 3

HE GAVE DESCRIPTION HOW CON MAN SHARKS SYNDICATES CHEAT PEOPLE THEN. JUST LIKE THEY DO RIGHT NOW!!!
25/09/2020 10:49 PM
calvintaneng The phrase

"lambs led to the slaughter" appeared again and again in Dr Neoh's book

Exactly!!

Those who chased gpacket over Rm1. 60 were lambs led to the slaughter

Also those who chased Mqtech, Gets, Ktb, Inix, Myscm, Mmag, Bintai, Notion, Pdz, Parlo, anzo, aco, kanger and many many others will end up slaughtered one by one like lambs
25/09/2020 11:02 PM
calvintaneng This time of Glove bull run has thrown up fake bull glove Syndicates pushing "other shares so called fake bull stocks " of no value but to pump and dump to sorchai

Some "lucky ones" who bought early and run early will still make alot of money is they escape in time before the operation is over.

Those who overstayed will get slaughtered
Those who go into margin at top prices might later get margin call and go bankrupt
26/09/2020 12:03 PM
calvintaneng Now let me relate what happened to Mr N of Batu Pahat, Ho Choy of SP Motor and Mr Lee of My KL


1. Mr. N of A Batu Pahat

He at first made Rm500,000 from the stock market during the GoGo years of 1993 to 1997

He phoned me and told me how happy he was to make such easy money from playing the share market.

He said he bought kimhin warrant and made a few hundred percent on the way up.

As he talked that evening he was walking in his garden in Batu Pahat then

He said he had to walk and walk because he was to excited to sleep with such a golden windfall

To be continued.
My lunch ready now
26/09/2020 12:10 PM
stockraider IF U CAREFULLY LOOK AT SOHAI 3iii LOGIC LOH ??
THEN U UNDERSTAND HOW STUPID LOH...!!

"If the company is raising cash to develop NEW projects and NEW businesses (high uncertainties and high risks).
In general AVOID ALL COMPANIES INVOLVED IN RIGHT ISSUES".

IF U LISTEN TO THIS SOHAI 3iii, U WOULD HAVE TOTALLY MISSED WORLD BEATING RETURN STOCK LIKE AMAZON, FACEBOOK & GOGGLE LOH...!!

IT IS SIMPLE MAH....DURING INFANCY STAGE...HOW COULD U EXPECT PROFIT INTIALLY LEH ??

U NEED TIME TO GIVE BABBY TO GROW LOH...!!

U ASK YOURSELF A LOGIC QUESTION WHY PEOPLE PAY A PREMIUM & SUPPORT GRAB FUND RAISING DESPITE STILL LOSING MONIES LEH ??
ANSWER GROWTH PROSPECT MAH...!!

COMING BACK TO NETX U R PAYING 21 SEN FOR THE BUSINESS WITH 25 NET CASH..WITH GROWTH PROSPECT....DO U NOT SEE OPPORTUNITY LIKE GRAB LEH ??

U MUST PUT SOME INVESTMENT IN TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIKE NETX LOH..!!

ON TOP OF IT, U PARTICIPATE IN A VERY ATTRACTIVE RIGHT ISSUE MAH...!!
26/09/2020 12:15 PM
calvintaneng Mr N of Batu Pahat

As 1993 bull run progressed Mr N even paid Rm15,000 for a computer terminal in his Car Showroom office to view stock prices in real time

That was in the 1990s before we have iphones
Now no need to go to Stock brokering firm to track prices

And as the days, months and years passed Mr N. Lost all his winnings

Then he suffered capital loss

To be continued
26/09/2020 12:50 PM
calvintaneng After 1993 superbull was over 1994 to 1997 were very erratic years

He kept punting but the market switched from main board to second board frenzy.

And after giving back all his gains he started to lose Rm100k, then Rm200k and then Rm500k
26/09/2020 12:54 PM
calvintaneng Finally he not only gave back all his initial gains but lost a cool one million ringgit

Rm1 millions was quite a tidy sum in Batu Pahat in those days

When I was there he drove me in his Rm400k Merc Benz up Soga Hill one evening

The hills of Taman Soga got prime lands facing Batu Pahat Town

Such a beautiful sight at night

To be continued
26/09/2020 12:58 PM
calvintaneng After he lost that one million ringgit Mr N could not sleep not rest

He told me he wanted to make back his losses

But I said "You got Rm5 millions. Losing one million you still have Rm4 millions.And Rm4 MILLONS in the 1990s is more than enough to retire happily in Batu Pahat where living cost is low."
26/09/2020 1:02 PM
calvintaneng But Mr N could not let go.

So he kept playing the stock market day after day

One day I received a call from him

He said , "Long just will be suspended by this afternoon " and he has bought 800,000 shares of Long just

True indeed

Longhuat was suspended that afternoon

But nothing happened after that

As time went one Mr N lost Rm1 million
Then Rm2 million
Then three, four and finally all his Rm5 millions gone.

All gone up as The Asian Financial Crisis hit Klse and it plummeted from the peak of 1332 to the low of 261

To be continued ...
26/09/2020 1:07 PM
calvintaneng Not long just

The stock was called Long Huat
26/09/2020 1:08 PM
calvintaneng Then Mr N sold his two precious lands in Tmn Soga which he intended to build his retirement bungalow

And borrowed money from banks by mortgaging his Car Showroom lands

All these monies were also lost

Then he got the ID cards of six relatives

They let him used their ID to borrow up to Rm200k each

All Rm1.2 millions gone
And his 6 relatives were sued for bankruptcy later

There were 49 banks and finance companies
After 1997/8 Asian Financial Crisis only 10 left.

39 went bankrupt or were taken over
26/09/2020 1:24 PM
calvintaneng In the GoGo years of 1993 to 1997 borrow money quite easy
Everyone got ID could borrow up to Rm10,000 with no collateral

So in principle anyone could borrow Rm490k by borrowing up to Rm10k from all the 49 banking and loan institution

So lax was then no wonder so many went bankrupt later
26/09/2020 1:27 PM
calvintaneng Finally after Mr N had borrowed Rm1 milions from 2 banks and lost all as well he turned to the ah longs or loan sharks

Interest rate was 6% a month

Then 8%

Finally when the last Rm100k at 10% interest he told the loan shark he might have to run away

They didn't believe him because they saw his car showroom and his cars

But only if they know they were all mortgaged
to the hilt in full and over the top

To be continued.
26/09/2020 1:31 PM
calvintaneng Stupid scenary

Netx story still on

Go see Mp corp, Kbunai, Kwantas
Read the threads very very carefully

There were naysayers like Netx

In the end all ended well
26/09/2020 1:38 PM
calvintaneng Now finally Mr N left without leaving a note or word

He just disappeared from Batu Pahat

See the Story here

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-03-13-story-h1484835012-THE_ASIAN_FINANCIAL_CRISIS_1997_1998_Why_It_Hit_Johor_Hardest_BECAUSE_O.jsp
26/09/2020 1:42 PM
calvintaneng For many many months nobody knew where Mr N had disappeared

Not even his own family left behind in Batu Pahat

Then after very long time I received a call

Ha! Mr. N had gone hiding from loan shark at the Thai border

He smuggled petrol from Malaysia to sell in Thailand and then smuggled rice from Thailand to sell in Malaysia

He said, "My name is now changed to "Peter""

I asked, "How come you are blacklisted with no passpost can enter Thailand?"

He said, "No need passport" Can go in and out anytime

Anything goes at the Thai border in those days

Today Mr.N is ok as his children are all grown up doing real business and avoiding speculation or gambling in the stock market

BUT IT COULD BE A DIFFERENT LIFESTYLE IF HE HAD NOT TASTED EASY MONEY IN THE BEGINNING

Jesse Livermore died young by suicide because he lived the high life on tip toe by rampant speculation

Bernard Baruch lived till a ripe old age and escaped The Great Depression of 1929 - 1939 because he was a defensive Value Investor
26/09/2020 2:04 PM
calvintaneng Coming up next

Mr Ho Choy of SP Motor

Anyone still here with me?

Shall I stop here?
26/09/2020 2:05 PM
calvintaneng Ok

Ho Choy 1st brought me to see his new corner 3 storey shophouse in Bandar Sri Petaling KL

Upstairs he just newly renovated his office for Rm50,000

He said, "All free!! And free money made from the stock market"

I asked , "What stock?"
"TA White"!

To me I know next to nothing about stocks then as I was not in the stock market and missed 1993 bull run

Only in 1994 I found out there was no "TA White"

He was referring to "TA warrant"

Surprisingly, while Mr. N punted and made initial money from kimhin warrant Ho Choy also made his money from TA warrants. There were no call warrant then in those days

Alas!!

If only Ho Choy could see ahead of time

He made Rm50,000 from punting the share market to renovate his office .....only to lose his 3 storey corner shophouse worth Rm800,000 later

In total Ho Choy lost Rm3 millions borrowed from loan shark and ran away

He also changed his name to Andy
26/09/2020 2:48 PM
calvintaneng Ho Choy don't even know English and called TA warrant as TA White

So many are now punting who followed so called guru in face book

There is a difference between Investing and blind gambling

As the hokkien say

Puak kiaw puak kiaw
Su liaw liaw

Translated it means

Gambling gambling

Losing all eventually

Yesss!!!

Long term statistics have proved that eventually in the very end of end games...

80% of retail gamblers will lose money

And some literally go bankrupt!!

A few like Jesse Livermore commit suicide
26/09/2020 2:54 PM
scenery Now Netx is holding a lot of blood money from those chase due to conman calvin's hard sell. Yet they still not satisfy want more with consolidation to rob off people shares and then ask for more with RI.

This episode of robbing will only end after RI, and after they used up their money as usual, they will print money again like before. I sympathize with those newbies who fall trap on him, not him, he deserve it.
26/09/2020 3:01 PM
calvintaneng I say before and I say again

Last time Calvin promoted Kbunai at 5.5 sen
Then Kbunai fell to 5 sen and many cry father cry mother
Then Kbunai was taken private for 100% gain

So wait

Netx still an inspiring work in progress

Even Facebook and alibaba needed lots of funding in early days

Netx will yet spring a surprise in the future
26/09/2020 3:09 PM
Michael Kwok Please,made a time horizon ex 6-12 month.If not people will confused.Maybe also percentage of return.
27/09/2020 8:51 PM
Mikecyc Haha just con artist telling lies story ke ..
28/09/2020 11:55 AM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>>>


calvintaneng I say before and I say again

Last time Calvin promoted Kbunai at 5.5 sen
Then Kbunai fell to 5 sen and many cry father cry mother
Then Kbunai was taken private for 100% gain

So wait

Netx still an inspiring work in progress

Even Facebook and alibaba needed lots of funding in early days

Netx will yet spring a surprise in the future
26/09/2020 3:09 PM



>>>>>>>{




It is stories like the above that make conman calvin same as dishonest raider. Not credible.
28/09/2020 12:07 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp
28/09/2020 12:09 PM
calvintaneng See the two most incorrigible spammers called 3iii and Mikecyc

Never warn people in utusan, london biscuit which gone bankrupt

Netx still an inspiring work in progress

Calvin happy to take up Netx Rights issue

As for Netx it is still a new start up like Alibaba and Facebook in early days needing funding

Now see how Calvin warned people in mmag, Bintai, myscm, parlo, inix, anzo, pdz which none of them these two low life lapsap 3iii or Mikecyc dare go warn
28/09/2020 5:09 PM
scenery conman calvin is trying to divert your attention away from

Netx which he caused all his followers to lose

until 80% the highest now but not over yet.
28/09/2020 5:48 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>>>>

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 28, 2020 5:09 PM | Report Abuse

See the two most incorrigible spammers called 3iii and Mikecyc

Never warn people in utusan, london biscuit which gone bankrupt

Netx still an inspiring work in progress

Calvin happy to take up Netx Rights issue

As for Netx it is still a new start up like Alibaba and Facebook in early days needing funding

Now see how Calvin warned people in mmag, Bintai, myscm, parlo, inix, anzo, pdz which none of them these two low life lapsap 3iii or Mikecyc dare go warn

>>>>>>



conman calvin is not credible. Conman shared stories of his friends who lost their fortunes in the 90s. Did conman calvin save his friends? Obviouly no. Today, conman calvin shared their stories depicting his friends as fools. In other words, among them, conman calvin was smarter.


Spare us the delusion, please.
28/09/2020 6:06 PM
calvintaneng Stupid 3iii totally missed the Ogse bull run

Also missed Glove bull run especially Supermax

Now Nfcp still ongoing

Netx shall rebound
28/09/2020 6:25 PM
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ >>>>>>>


Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 28, 2020 6:25 PM | Report Abuse

Stupid 3iii totally missed the Ogse bull run

Also missed Glove bull run especially Supermax

Now Nfcp still ongoing

Netx shall rebound

>>>>>>>>





Selective highlighting his gains.

Who sold 10 houses end of 2019?

Which counter (hint: N...) he invested into?

Ah yes, conman will be selling more houses to take up the RI.


Incredible indeed. :-)
28/09/2020 7:17 PM


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