Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Thu, 3 Dec 2020, 2:06 PM

 

'THE GREATER FOOL THEORY By Dr Neoh Soon Kean (Excerpts from STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT), Calvin Tan comments

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This is an excerpt from STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT In Malaysia And Singapore by Dr Neoh Soon Kean, the Benjamin Graham of Malaysia. Year of printing 1985

 

THE GREATER FOOL THEORY (Page 67 Last paragraph)

This is a theory that is usually very popular during the immature phase of a stock market's development. More of the followers of this theory are not aware that the trading system which they believe in goes by this peculiar name. From the stock market's behaviour during the past three booms, we can say that many Malaysians/Singaporeans appear to be strong supporters of this theory. This theory was very popular in the US during the 1920s but since then, it has fallen out of favour even though pockets of true believers still appear from time to time.

 

    In essence, believers of this theory hold that stock prices are not dependent on anything tangible but rather dependent on the continual appearance of more people who are willing to purchase the stocks at an even higher price {these people are the so-called 'greater fools'). Thus, it neither matters what price one buys a stock nor that the stock's price is ridiculously high by any normal standard of measurement. Thus the believers of this school of thought hold the view that whatever stock one buys can always be sold at a higher price because there will always be greater fools than themselves. Thus, it is fine to buy MUIB at $24.00 because there will be another person foolish (or brave) enough to pay $26.00 for it. Believers of the greater fool theory never for a minute think that the supply of fools will be exhausted and that they may be the final purchaser before the crash.

 

   During every stock market boom, there are usually a large number of believers of the greater fool theory and some of them actually make a lot of money on the way up. Some of them get out in time by finding some greater fools to take over their hot potatoes in the nick of time but many find that they themselves end up as the greatest fools because there is no one else willing to bid up the price anymore. Needless to say, the Greater Fool Theory is a much discredited one among academics and most professionals. But it still finds many adherents. Why is this so? Everyone is having too much fun, (that is, making so much money) on the way up that they do not want to leave the market. George Goodman, writing under the pen name of 'Adam Smith' has this wonderful parable to explain how people are caught up in the web of the Greater Fool Theory and do not know when to get out.

 

We are all at a wonderful ball where champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know, by the rules, that at some moment, terrorists will burst in through the terrace doors, killing many and scattering the survivors. Those who leave early will be saved, but the ball is so splendid that no one wants to leave while there is still time. Everyone wants to enjoy one more dance and sip one more glass of champagne. So everyone kept asking: "What time is it? What time is it?" We look around and find that all the clocks have no hands.

 

  This may be a surrealist's way of describing the stock market but Goodman's parable has a great deal of truth in it. Of course, we know that in every speculative boom of the past, the 'terrorists' did come when most of the guests were still enjoying themselves at the ball. As 'Adam Smith' implies, nobody knows when a speculative boom will end but end it must for that is the rule. At every speculative boom, not many of the small speculators escaped with their gains made on the way up. Most of the smaller speculators known to me eventually lost all their gains and much more than what has been gained.

Some even lost a large part of their original capital. Thus on the next occassion when you happen to find yourselves at this type of a ball, try to leave early. The problem is that once one is caught up in the fun and games of the party, one is apt to lose touch with reality. Chances are that believers of the Greater Fool Theory will hang on to the bitter end, only to be slaughtered. It is better to miss a few dances or a few glasses of champagne than lose one's life. 

In concluding this section, an anecdote about Bernarde Baruch, generally acknowledged to be the greatest stock traders of the 1920s is related. He was once asked how it was that he remained  so rich while many of his contemporaries had declared bankrupt. This was his splendid answer: 'I always sold too early.'

 

Calvin comments:

This greater fool theory could be applied to stocks like IFCA, Sumatech, VSolar, XOX & others

I have people telling me I missed IFCA on the way up. Calvin does not go gambling in casino Greater Fool Type of Stocks.  And how they missed a fortune on the way up  due to my warnings.  And how they finally lost all their 'profits and all their capitals' for overstaying. Now I am not here to tell you how to punt or gamble. I am here to warn of a Greater Fool Stock.

All will have to be responsible for your own actions in investment. 

 

INIX (GREATER FOOL TRAP BY GLOVE HYPE RUMOUR)

AFTER PULPED UP INSIDER THROW ALL TO SORCHAI

 

 

ANZO (ANOTHER CON JOB : SEE INSIDERS THROW AND TRAP WATER FISH)

 

PDZ

THIS ECOMMERCE WAREHOUSE IN DESARU HYPE THE BIG BIG SCAM

Desaru has no port, No railway connection (too rural)

AFTER PUMPED UP ALL SARDINES WERE CAUGHT KAW KAW

KLSE: PDZ (6254)       PDZ HOLDINGS BHD MAIN : Transportation&Logistics
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
0.07    -0.01 (12.50%)  0.07 - 0.08  9,843,200
Trade this stock with 3 x trading limitFind out more.

Insider - Substantial Shareholder

Hints :
[1] Click the View Detail icon table to view the detail page.

 

CAELY ANOTHER BIG NET CATCHING ALL SOTONG

 

MMAG (PUSHED UP MOTHER DUMP WARRANTS TO ALL STUPID SARDINES NOW DIE DIE SORCHAI LEOW)

 

GPACKET PUMPED UP ON DIGITAL BANK LICENSE WITH TENCNT HYPE

FIERCE PUMPED UP TO RM1.90 ; CRASHED BANG BANG ON THE HEAD OF NEWBIES & IKAN BILIS

 

OCEANCASH (THIS ONE NOT SO BAD BUT FOOLS CHASED TOO HIGH & INSIDERS GOT SELL TO WATER FISH

 

HTPADU (AFTER IKAN BILIS, SOTONG & SORCHAI CHASED HIGH HIGH)

INSIDERS & OUTSIDERS SAPU ALL WHO CHASED INTO THE "LONGKANG"

WITH TWO BIG BROOM STICKS ALL STUBBORN FOOLS FINALLY SAPU INSIDE THE LONGKANG!!

 

NOTION (DIGITAL CAMERA NO BUSINESS AS AIRLINE STOPPED SO NO TOURIST TAKE PHOTO)

NOTION USA FACE MASK HYPE ALSO CATCH MANY SARDINES & WATER FISH

 

KTB (KENA TRAP BILIS)

 

 

THE ABOVE ARE EXAMPLES AFTER EXAMPLES WHY EVENTUALLY ALL WHO CHASED HOT AIR STOCKS WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL (OR STOCKS WITH FUNDAMENTAL CHASED INTO OVERVALUATION)

WILL END UP WITH

80% LOSING MONEY (SOME CAR KENA REPO & HOUSE ALSO KENA LELONG THEN POKAI ON THE STREET!

10% JUST BREAK EVEN (WASTING THEIR PRECIOUS TIME FOR NOTHING)

10% MAKE MONEY (THE RARE 10% ARE CONTRARIANS

THEY AVOID THE MADDENING CROWD!!

THEY HAVE "INDEPENDENT THINKING"

 

 

LISTEN! LISTEN!! LISTEN!!

ALL NEW GLOVE WANNABEES  HYPES (No more nitrile glove chemicles for sale now!!) ALL BOOKED By Topglove & Others!

NEW VACCINE HYPE STOCKS

ALL WILL TURN INTO GREATER FOOL TO CATCH "YOU"!!!

 

STOP PRESS!!

 

At the behest of a fellow i3 forumer I want to state that NETX IS NOT A PUMP & DUMP!

Why is Netx NOT a Pump & Dump?

Because Asiabio/Fintec ONLY BOUGHT & NEVER SOLD ANY NETX SHARES SINCE 2015

5 YEARS LONG THEY HOLD NETX TIGHT TIGHT (SO NETX IS A BUY!)

 

See

SEE

ALL CON MAN STOCKS ARE RED, RED, RED & RED

NETX IS GREEN GREEN GREEN & GREEN

SO NETX GAME IS STILL ON

NETX IS AN INSPIRING WORK STILL IN PROGRESS

NETX IS THE DISRUPTIVE TECH OF THE FUTURE

BE FAR SIGHTED

 

Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 25, 2020 7:40 AM Report Abuse X

LISTEN LISTEN LISTEN!

REAL CONMAN STOCKS CONMAN LIKE 3iii, Mikecyc, shootup Never Once Go Warn like in MMAG, GPACKET & OTHERS

YOU WON'T SEE THEM THERE WHERE THEY SHOULD BE

ALL INSIDERS PUMPED, SOLD & RUN AWAY

FOR NETX THE DIRECTORS ARE ALL HOLDING FIRMLY

SO THESE EVIL PEOPLE CALL NETX(GOOD STOCK) EVIL & CALL EVIL GOOD

JUST BE CONTRARIAN AND HOLD LONGER TERM

DON'T BOTHER WHAT OTHERS SAY AS YOU "SEE" INSIDERS ARE STILL HOLDING

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2020-10-24...

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  straxorx likes this.
 
cheoky All in next?????
24/10/2020 10:49 PM
calvintaneng No

No matter how good a stock is

You cannot put all in one basket

See

https://www.eaglevisioninvest.com/the-importance-of-diversification-calvin-tan-this-is-a-3rd-posting-to-warn-about-black-swan-event/

Buy NETX

Asiabio has bought and holding tightly all Netx shares


1) NAIM IS VERY VERY GOOD

86 sen with NTA of Rm2.60 got 67% discount (GOT HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY)

GIVING 18 SEN DIVIDEND AT 86 SEN = 20.9% YIELD

1,000% BETTER THAN BANK FD INTEREST AT 2%

EPS IS 22 SEN AFTER TAKING PROFITS FROM INVESTMENT


2) JTIASA = GIANT TREASURE

3) LUXCHEM (TEXCHEM & CAREPLUS GREAT PROFITS)
LUXCHEM WILL ALSO SEE GREAT PROFITS
24/10/2020 11:01 PM
stockraider Amazon gone thru ;

1.conceptualization stage
2.Developmental stage
3. commercialization stage
4. making big money stage

Netx currently at commercialization stage & had already spend Rm 200m on development mah...!!

If u take up the Rights of Netx u song...song...put in 13 sen...u get netx share with warrant with net cash of 15 sen mah...!!

Don forget...all the old shareholders of Netx spend monies on conceptualizations & developmental stage costing them more than Rm 200m mah...!!

U go into Netx without spending a single sen on conceptualization & developmental stage...U get NETX share with warrant which have a net cash of 15 sen against your investment of 13 sen ??

Is this not a wonderful situation leh ??

Open your big eye wide...Look at this wonderful opportunity mah...!!

posted by scenery > Oct 24, 2020 11:23 PM | Report Abuse

It is easy for Netx to get free money just by printing shares and cash out to the public getting money indirectly from them; and then RI to get directly from them again.

So, how much the company raise from RI and how much cash they have in hand wont help their business progression; bec their interest is not there, they only take the listed company as a cash cow, continue milking the public for their leisure lives. They are just legalised robber.
24/10/2020 11:45 PM
calvintaneng Asiabio/fintec 1st bought Netx at 7 sen and kept buying without selling even a single Netx share

Netx is a tech stock of the future

Good night

Zzzzz,,,,...

Sweet sweet sleep

His angles watching over us
25/10/2020 12:05 AM
kelvin61 Calvintaneng you forgot to include your Holland stock, NETX.
25/10/2020 1:10 AM
calvintaneng Kelvin61

If I include Netx

Netx is different because insiders only bought and never sell

So it will not be in red

It will all be in green, green, green and green

So it is still in progress
25/10/2020 7:12 AM
BabyAce Walao tak pasal pasal my VSolar inside....
25/10/2020 12:24 PM
Michael Kwok I am one of the shareholder of Anzo.I think I promote in some stock website.This is on Anzo stock blog.This the result of buying oversold counter last year.Buying 2 cents keep till big jump.Highest

Michael Kwok(Anzo)
639 posts
Posted by Michael Kwok > Oct 7, 2019 3:35 PM | Report Abuse X

Where got director so stupid of not getting projects.Somemore cancel due to losses will incurred if continue.Smart.Now can get profitable projects as time go on.Putting TP 11-15 cent.


Michael Kwok
720 posts
Posted by Michael Kwok > Oct 17, 2019 4:46 PM | Report Abuse X

Anzo vs Netx who will win?Anzo is the one.Price almost the same.

8.03A ​​Level of operations(Anzo as Example)
​ ​
(1) ​A listed issuer must maintain an adequate level of operations to warrant continued trading or listing on the Official List.
​ ​
​(2) ​The following are circumstances which indicate that a listed issuer may not have a level of operations that is adequate to warrant continued trading or listing on the Official List:
​ ​
​ ​(a) ​the listed issuer has suspended or ceased –
​ ​ ​ ​
​ ​ ​(i) ​all of its business or its major business; or
​ ​ ​ ​
​ ​ (ii)​ ​its entire or major operations,
​ ​ ​ ​
​ ​ ​​for any reason whatsoever including, amongst others, due to or as a result of -
​ ​ ​ ​
​ ​ ​(aa) ​the cancellation, loss or non-renewal of a licence, concession or such other rights necessary to conduct its business activities;
​ ​ ​ ​
​ ​ (bb) ​the disposal of the listed issuer’s business or major business; or
​ ​ ​ ​
​ ​ (cc)​ ​a court order or judgment obtained against the listed issuer prohibiting the listed issuer from conducting its major operations on grounds of infringement of copyright of products etc; or

Source: customer.bursamalaysia.com:8080/MainLR/Pages/MainChapter8.aspx

Posted by Michael Kwok > Nov 30, 2019 10:22 PM | Report Abuse X

Dear I also the promoter of AT(from March-October).Monthly oversold over 1 years.Please do not buy overbought shares.(100 times).This Anzo 50 times.No good.Anzo monthly chart oversold for 2 years plus.If no move at least above 7 cents in less than 1 years time I appologized.


Michael Kwok
1008 posts
Posted by Michael Kwok > Dec 2, 2019 7:36 PM | Report Abuse X

Putting target price bad case scenario 7-8.5 cent.Best case scenario 11cent-15 cent.Wait for 1 year.
25/10/2020 1:14 PM
Michael Kwok High 26 cents July 7,2020.
25/10/2020 1:22 PM
Michael Kwok Throw 15 cents.
25/10/2020 1:23 PM
calvintaneng Hahaha

Michael anzo just like Genting Casino game

For every one who made money gambling in casino 99 others are losing

Stay invested in great growth stocks not playing casino type of stocks please
25/10/2020 1:36 PM
calvintaneng Listen

Gamblers no matter how lucky they are for a stretch will still end up losing as long term statistics will show

One example is Jesse Livermore who succeeded for years gambling and more gambling in stocks and commodities

Then he met his Waterloo and committed suicide
By putting a gun on his head at age 63

His life was cut short by gambling

On the other hand Bernard Baruch lived past 90 years old based on fundamental investing

So don't play the fool with money

Or all will end up as Fools
25/10/2020 1:43 PM
calvintaneng Sorchai and fools are the same

The fool and his money is soon parted
25/10/2020 2:03 PM
sensonic WELL SAID , SIFU CALVIN :)
25/10/2020 2:45 PM
Maxigain Very good advice by Calvin. Always love your recommendations, though some I don’t agree.
25/10/2020 10:34 PM
calvintaneng Sensonic

Tyvm
25/10/2020 11:18 PM
calvintaneng Maxigain

Tyvm

Diversity of opinion always welcome

I am still learning everyday from everyone
25/10/2020 11:19 PM
byehisello tqvm sipu calvin
26/10/2020 5:59 PM
calvintaneng Today Calvin warned about new MyDIY pumped up Ipo by the help of IB Bankers to dump to sorchai

Any sorchai or water fish sudah bought overvalued MyDIY

MyDIY Ipo fever is another proof that 90% of the people eventually lose money in share market

One clear cut case is chasing MyDIY to Rm1.75 today when it should be price at below Rm1.00

Just like Stupid sorchai chasing MyNews now chased MyDIY to hot air

Wait for one full year result before can see real value of MyDIY

Best to wait see MyDiy annual reports for 3 years before buying
26/10/2020 6:57 PM
calvintaneng US Nov 3 election if Trump loses election Dow might crash by 20% to 30% in knee jerk reaction

If he wins ok

And again this important reminder

Defensive stocks are

Naim at 87 sen with Rock solid dividend

1st 9.9 sen
2nd 8.1 sen

Total is 18 sen or 20% yield

No where on Earth got stocks giving 20% yield like Naim

Luxchem

Texchem result good. Luxchem expected to be good to excellent

Jtiasa and all Palm oil stocks

Anti recession as Palm oil is cheapest oil based food

Netx - now near rock bottom
26/10/2020 11:02 PM
Jolly Sifu Calvin pls share ur view of Nylex ? Tqvm
26/10/2020 11:25 PM
calvintaneng Jolly Sifu Calvin pls share ur view of Nylex ? Tqvm
26/10/2020 11:25 PM

Jolly

Nylex is expanding its ethanol from 5 million litres to 10 million litres

Demand for sanitizer will pull up Nylex's profit in ethanol

If no more impairment from polymer division then Nylex should do very well
26/10/2020 11:51 PM


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