Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Sun, 10 Jan 2021, 10:10 PM

 

CPO Now Rm3,856 near all time high of Year 2,010 at Rm4,000: See How Thplant, Chinteck, MHC plant, TDM & others performed, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Happy News for All Investors of Palm Oil Stocks, 

As of now Fcpo Jan 2021 has reached Rm3,856. Rm4,000 target of Year 2,010 within reach soon

See the 10 year CPO Price Chart Below:

 

 

Do you ever wondered in Year when CPO reached the All Time Record High of Rm4,000 how did Plantation Stocks Performed?

No problem

Dr. Neoh Soon Kean of Dynaquest has compiled all the data in his Yearly Stock Performance Guide (Last Edition March 2015)

And let Calvin type out for all to see

1) Starting with TH PLANT

CRITICAL STOCK PERFORMANCE INFORMATION (page 382)

Year.......Price Range.....Dividend Per Share....Earnings Per Share.

2005......Not listed....................6.6 sen..........6.6 sen

2006......0.70.......1.13..............0.0.................7.6 sen

2007......0.98........1.54.............3.8...............13.00

2008......0.78........1.59.............9.6...............12.5

2009......0.98.........1.48........... 4.7.................9.2

2010......1.17..........1.76...........5.3...............15.3

2011.......1.54..........1.90..........7.8................20.4 sen

2012.......1.60..........2.49.........10.74...............6.3

2013........1.60.........2.00...........3.8.................7.2

2014........1.40.........2.18...........3.6.................4.1

2015........1.53..........1.70..........2.0E...............5.5E

From the chart exactly 10 years ago on Dec 23rd 2010 Fcpo also closed around Rm3,856....after that it went up to touch Rm4,000

We are not expecting things to turn out exactly. But things do rythme

Take a very very careful look at the figures again

After Fcpo rose to Rm3,856 - Rm4,000 region in Year 2010

Results of Year 2011 turned out very spectacularly

See again

2011.......1.54.....1.90.......7.8......20.4 sen

Earnings for year 2011 reached the highest at 20.4 sen

And share price reached a new high of Rm1.90 since listing

CPO Prices as we know turned down gradually after 2011

But THPLANT Increased its dividend to 10.74 sen high in year 2012

 

2012.......1.60.....2.49......10.74........6.3

 

And share price of Thplant gone up even higher to Rm2.49 even though earning weakened to 6.3 sen

THIS IS THE TAIL END OF EUPHORIA WHEN Johnny came lately Plus all Analysts finally turned Bulish at peak prices (very wrong timing  when 99% of every one already know that Thpant share price has gone up from 70 sen listing price to Rm2.49 (UP 255% not inclusive of dividends)

WITH FCPO NOW OVER RM3,850 THPLANT IS STILL A VERY LOW AT 55 SEN LOOKS LIKE A BARGAIN

And no wonder

Data Driven Grand Champion Sifu Dr. Neoh Soon Kean owns lots of Th Plant shares

 

9. Neoh Choo Ee & Company, Sdn. Berhad.... 3,700,000 

Dr. Neoh's own private Company owns 3.7 Million Thplant shares in Top 9

 

27. Dynaquest Sdn. Bhd............. 750,000

Dynaquest Sdn Bhd the Equity Fund managed by Dr. Neoh has 750,000 shares of Thplant

So two funds from Dr. Neoh are in Thplant (out of so many plantation stocks why Th Plant?)

 

2) TDM

Year..............Price Range.............Dividend Per Share..............Earnings Per Share.

2005.....0.11.....0.17......0.0......1.9

2006....0.12.....0,18.......0.0......1.2

2007...0.15....0.39.........0.3.......3.0

2008....0.17....0.45.......0.9........7.5 sen

2009....0.18.....0.30......1.8........4.2

2010....0.26.....0.54......2.0........7.0

2011....0.43.....0.66......2.8........11.00

2012....0.53......0.84......3.1.........6.4

2013....0.54......1.05.....3.7..........2.8

2014....0.65......1.13......1.0.........3.4

2015....0.73.......0.89.....1.2...........3.

See

TDM also reported the Highest profit of 11 sen in year 2011

But price only up from 26 sen low of 2010 to high of 66 sen

Quite spooky?

Many of Calvin's whataspp friends bought TDM around 24 sen to 26 sen recently

After TDM got its good earnings in Year 2011 it increased its dividends to 

3.1 sen from 2.8 sen in  year 2012 and Share price reached higher to 84 sen

Again it increased its dividend from 3.1 sen to 3.70 even though earnings have tapered off

And Year 2013 high was Rm1.05

The highest was reached by Year 2014 at Rm1.13

So from low of 26 sen in year 2010 to highest of 2014 at Rm1.13 TDM Investors would have made A Whopping 334%!

BUT THOSE WHO FINALLY GOT CONVINCED AND CHASED THE TAIL END OF RM1.13?

What happened to All Who Bought In Peak Euphoria when All Media, Sifu, Analysts, IB Banks finally turned Bullish?

For now all are neutral (SO CALVIN & FRIENDS ARE SAFE)

3) CHINTECK

2005........4.76.....5.20......DPS 23.8.....38.1 (EPS)

2006........4.98.....6.00......21.6.............24.1

2007........5.10.....7.85.......27...............40.9

2008........4.50......9.10......51.8............105

2009........5.60.......7.85......26.3...........49.6

2010........7.22........8.99......30.............52.9

2011........7.90.......9.25.......36.00........80.80

2012........8.60.......9.30........30............55.9

2013........8.80........9.85......19.............25.5

2014........8.90.........9.98.... .34.5.........40.2

2015........9.19..........9.30......28 E.......39.5E

 

From all the figures we see that Chinteck has always been doing well

Year 2011 it registered earnings of 80.80 sen

But if you look at year 2008 Chinteck earned even more at Rm105 per share

Why so high profit

Chinteck not only in Palm Oil. Chinteck JV with Muiprop to build Houses & University in Bandar Springhill

Now Chinteck  has  3,000 Freehold landbanks in Bandar Sri Sendayan with book value of less than 50 sen psf

CHINTECK COULD ONE DAY FOLLOW IOI, SIME DARBY & OTHERS GOING INTO REAL ESTATE

Matrix bought lands from Felda to build houses in Bandar Sri Sendayan

So Chinteck has HUGE Potential like Matrix

One Surprise is KSeng is in Top 30 holders of Chinteck

7. Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
UBS AG Hong Kong for Keck Seng (Malaysia) Berhad
2,784,375 
 
Keck Seng is in Top 7 of Chinteck with 2.78 Million shares
 
So People see KSeng undervalue but KSeng Boss sees Chinteck even more undervalue!
 
 
4) MHC Plantations

 

2010.........0.45.....0.80...........0.9.........8.8

2011.........0.67.....1.03.............1.2........14.5

2012.........0.86......1.45.............1.5........8.4

2013..........0.99......1.19............2.3.........3.9

2014..........0.89.......1.30............2.............6.7

2015..........0.95........1.05............2.3E.......6.5E

 

Again we see Earnings in year 2011 was 14.5 sen & share price crossed Rm1.00 to Rm1.03

Next year Mhc Plant rose again to the high of Rm1.45

MHC GOT 2 MORE OOMPH FACTORS

1) IT IS TOP HOLDERS OF CEPATWAWASAN

2) ITS FREEHOLD LANDS IN PERAK ONLY LESS THAN RM5,000 PER ACRE

MHC PLANT LANDS ARE AS VALUABLE AS BPLANT

 

AFrom here we see very high CPO  prices in Year 2010.  All Plantation stocks then Reported the Highest Earnings for Year 2011 after Fcpo reached the high of Rm4,000

 

What do we learn from here?

1) FCPO Prices Run Ahead First in year 2010 while Prices still lag behind (People still unsure & skeptical of Cpo bull run)

2) Finally Good Profits reported by All

Chinteck (Negeri Sembilan)

MHC Plant (Perak)

TDM (Trengganu)

ThPlant (Tganu, Sarawak & Sabah)

SO PRICE ROSE UP IN YEAR 2011

 

3) By 2012 CPO prices Started to Turn Down BUT SHARE PRICES STILL SURGE UP ONE OR TWO YEARS LONGER

We see All the People FINALLY CAPITULATED AND TURNED VERY BULLISH & CHASED PALM OIL SHARES INTO EUPHORIA

 

This happened to Dayang at Rm3.01 (All die kaw kaw chasing euphoria)

Are Medical Gloves reaching euphoria as well as new glove wannabees & vaccine hypes?

ALL WILL SUFFER LATER

THEY WERE WRONG AT THE WRONG TIME NOT TO BUY WHEN PRICES WERE DIRT CHEAP

THEY WERE WRONG TO CHASE AGAIN AT THE WRONG TIME WHEN PRICES WERE VERY HIGH

WHY LIKE THAT?

THE EFFECTS OF THEIR OWN HEART. THEY SHOULD BUY WHEN THERE IS FEAR. AND THEY SHOULD NOT CHASE WHEN THERE IS EUPHORIA

CHASING HOT HOT STOCKS AT PEAK PRICES ALWAYS END IN TEARS

This is a correct Description by POGO

"We have found the enemy! They is us"

 

SO?

SO SHOULD WE BUY CPO STOCKS WHILE STILL CHEAP AS EARNINGS WILL EXPLODE UPWARD IN YEAR 2021 NEXT YEAR VERY SOON NOW?

 

Best regards

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

 

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  4 people like this.
 
bulldog Thanks Calvin
Bulldog top pick TDM and bplant

Huat chaiii
28/12/2020 12:50 AM
calvintaneng Very good and happy morning all

Yes bulldog

I got Tdm and Bplant plus 8 more cpo stocks
All will go up in tandem just like years 2010 to 2014 four years Palm oil bull run time

As it was
So it is
And it will be again in its ever circling years

And now is the time
28/12/2020 7:20 AM
calvintaneng Jan 4th 2021 the first trading day of a new year witnesses Fcpo Jan 2021 reached Rm3,950

Only Rm50 more to world record all time high of Rm4,000

Amazing thing is all IB banks deceptively making neutral calls for palm oil

Very very slippery analysts for fear of losing out in their Palm oil call warrants now suppressing the truth
04/01/2021 8:03 PM
Letsfly today it is even less than RM50 to hit 4k~ woohoo
05/01/2021 5:09 PM
stockraider Why the rally on cpo is sustainable leh ??

If u check the cpo spot & future from Jan 2021 to Dec 2021 all prices are above Rm 3000 until November 2021 & only December 2021 is slightly below Rm 3000 but still consider high at around Rm 2970 per tonnes.

For your info, when palmoil is average rm 2500, all the palmoil plantations make good profit mah...!!

Thus the good profit of palmoil company is sustainable very good & the average palmoil price should easily exceed average rm 3000 for 2021 mah...!!

Like calvin sifu says there are Great Safety In Palm Oil Shares loh!


Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Cpo reaching Rm4000

Moving up to Rm4500 and Rm5000 range due to la nina

Hide in great safety of palm oil shares

Posted by calvintaneng > Jan 9, 2021 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Happy morning all

Yesterday Soybean prices in USA closed above Usd13.70 to yet another new high due to very dry weather in South America

La nina is here with uneven weather on earth

Floods in Malaysia will deplete cpo stocks and drought will decimate Soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina

Leading to huge shortfall and panic buying later

Palm oil bull is now on course to run for all the months of 2021
09/01/2021 1:25 PM


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