Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Mon, 26 Jul 2021, 11:25 PM

 

THPLANT (5112) Top Malaysia Small Cap Palm Oil Shares with Largest Acreage of Oil Palms, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Dear Investors & Traders of i3 Forum,

We are happy to bring you ThPlant (5122).

This is a small Cap Palm Oil stocks of KLSE with huge Palm Oil Land Acreage of over 230,000 acres of Oil Palms. 230,000 acres is larger Singapore land mass of 180,000 acres.

Let's look at Thplant last quarter results

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Mar 2021

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Mar 2021
31 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2021
31 Mar 2020
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
131,243
115,551
131,243
115,551
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
25,377
-14,488
25,377
14,488
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
19,581
-12,948
19,581
-12,948
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
14,966
-11,531
14,966
-11,531
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
1.69
-1.30
1.69
-1.30
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.6700
0.6600
 

 

EPS (Earnings per share) is 1.69

Forward 4 qtrs Eps 

= 1.69 x 4 = 6.76 sen

At 47 sen the P/E is 47 divided by 6.76

= 6.95 (P/E)

The yield is 14.3% 

The Price now is undemanding as if all goes according to order you will double your money in less than 7 years

 

With Fcpo ranging from Rm3300 to Rm4500 recently the August 21 results of ThPlant will be better

since FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) have increased for April & May 2021 in comparison to January, February & March 2021

Let's do a break down

Refer to Bursa Website under Thplant

 

We wish to announce that the production figures of TH Plantations Berhad Group for the month of January 2021 are as follows:

No. Products Total (Metric Tonnes)
1. Fresh Fruit Bunches 44,983.28
2. Crude Palm Oil 9,449.99
3. Palm Kernel 2,108.46

 

 

 

For brevity we only take FFB at 44,983.28 (Metric Tonnes) January 2021

 

We wish to announce that the production figures of TH Plantations Berhad Group for the month of February 2021 are as follows:

 

No. Products Total (Metric Tonnes)
1. Fresh Fruit Bunches 41,167.04
2. Crude Palm Oil 6,628.96
3. Palm Kernel 1,506.38

 

FFB for February is 41,167.04 (Metric Tonnes)

 

We wish to announce that the production figures of TH Plantations Berhad Group for the month of March 2021 are as follows:

 

No. Products Total (Metric Tonnes)
1. Fresh Fruit Bunches 53,071.05
2. Crude Palm Oil 9,536.76
3. Palm Kernel 2,347.00

 

MARCH FFB is 53,071.05 (Metric Tonnes)

 

From these 3 months we can deduce its average monthly yield by adding all 3 & divide Sum Total by 3

 

So 44,983.28 + 41,167.04 + 53,071.05

= 139,221.37 (Metric tonnes)

Now divides by 3 to get monthly average

= 46,407.12 (Metric tonnes)

That means Thplant with 46,407.12  (Metric Tonnes) for 3 months have given a profit of 1.69 sen in one quarter

 

Now look at April & May 2021 FFB 

 

We wish to announce that the production figures of TH Plantations Berhad Group for the month of April 2021 are as follows:

 

No. Products Total (Metric Tonnes)
1. Fresh Fruit Bunches 56,212.27
2. Crude Palm Oil 11,896.81
3. Palm Kernel 3,043.57

APRIL 2021 FFB is 56,212.27 (Metric Tonnes)

 

We wish to announce that the production figures of TH Plantations Berhad Group for the month of May 2021 are as follows:

 

No. Products Total (Metric Tonnes)
1. Fresh Fruit Bunches 59,643.10
2. Crude Palm Oil 14,332.32
3. Palm Kernel 3,590.08

 

MAY 2021 is 59,643.10 (Metric Tonnes)

Now June 2021 FFB will only be out after June 30th 2021 (for that we wait. Expected to be more)

 

Now let's get the average for April & May 2021

56,212.27 + 59.643.10

= 115,855.37

And divides by 2

= 57,927.68 (Metric Tonnes)

 

NOW WE CALCULATE 1 ST QUARTER TO 2ND QUARTER PROJECTED INCREASE BY PERCENTAGE

57,927.68 less 46,407.12 (1st Qtr average)

= 11,520.56

To get percentage increase divides 11,520.56 by 46,407.12

= 24.82%

Now from here we can "SEE" that THPLANT August Results will be above 2 sen on condition that there is no impairment or currency exchange losses

In any case from Clear cut deduction the "Operation Side" will be good to excellent in coming months

More good news of Value Unlocking

THPLANT intends to Sell 6 Estates to Lock in Gains as well as pare down borrowings

2 Pieces of Palm Oil Lands in Bintulu just got a Boost by the New Mukah Airport which is only 1 1/2 hour away near Bintulu

4 More Pieces for sale are near Kuching where the earliest stretch of Pan Borneo Highway now completed

So from many angles THPLANT looks like a Stock with Great Potential to Rebound

Let's take a look at 10 Year Prices of THPLANT

From STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE (2014 Sept Ed) by Dynaquest (page 382)

CRITICAL STOCKMARKET INFORMATION

Year....Price.. Range

2006...0.70....1.13

2007...0.98....1.54

2008...0.78....1.59

2009...0.98....1.48

2010...1.17....1.76

2011...1.54....1.90

2012...1.60....2.49

2013...1.60....2.00

2014...1.64....2.18

 

In years when Cpo prices were high the Price of Thplant crossed Rm2.00 in 2012, 2013 & 2014 for 3 years

If Cpo can just sustain above Rm2800 to Rm3200 a tonne can we expect THPlant to reach Rm1.00? According to Thplant they said their cost of Cpo production only Rm1,465 (Metric Tonne)

And if CPO maintain above Rm3300 to Rm4000 range we can expect THplant to reach its former glory days of over Rm2.00

Thplant now 47 sen

Target price is 94 sen

A modest 100% upside in one year.

 

Best Regards

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due research

Or please consult your Remisier, Fund Manager, Accountant & Auditor

 

Coming up next post

Why TSH Resources is 80% similar to  IjmPlant

After IjmPlant TSH Resources might be  another candidate for Takeover

Share this

  4 people like this.
 
Reichwerden CPO PRICE DROP8 > 20%
21/06/2021 1:12 AM
calvintaneng Cpo went up from Rm2,000 per ton to Rm4,800 per ton. Now only retracing

Thplant's palm oil lands are concentrated in

Trengganu
Pahang
Johor
Sabah,
Sarawak
and Kalimantan

Pahang and Trengganu are along the Ecrl route while Sarawak and SABAH are along the Pan Borneo Highway

So these highways will unlock value all along it's routes

And being a larger size palm oil owner there is economy of scale

Thplant cost of Cpo production is only Rm1,465 per ton. Thplant also got its own palm oil mills

At Rm2,500 it is making 70% percent gross profit
At Rm3,000 it is making 100%
At Rm3,500 it will be excellent
At Rm4,000 it will be fantastic

All these good factors have come into play more than 6 months already but not yet reflected in Thplant share price as yet.

So Thplant is a real bargain now with all it's hidden potential so apparent now for anyone to have missed
21/06/2021 6:03 AM
calvintaneng Thplant owns a total of 6 palm oil mills. Plus it has very long term strategic investments in 3,830 acres of Teak wood planted in SABAH
21/06/2021 6:23 AM
Thomas Chan Yeu Wai nice analysis sifu calvin.
21/06/2021 12:03 PM
calvintaneng TYVM Thomas

I see you also bullish on Taann which is also a great defensive stock

KEEP VERY SAFE FOR NOW!
21/06/2021 7:45 PM
calvintaneng Soybean oil in dalian holding above Usd60 gives support to fcpo at Rm3,490

Since Thplant cost of cpo production only Rm1,465 the more than 100% gross profit is superb
22/06/2021 1:54 PM
calvintaneng Rm3,490 - Rm1,465 = Rm2,025 gross profit per ton

Last time Cpo price was Rm2,000 per ton

Now is Cpo profit is Rm2,025 per ton

How could I miss?
22/06/2021 2:02 PM
Lukey_Greek Go study more of last quarter profit composition.

Dont mislead the investors & got a potential surprise -ve profit for the coming quarter due to fair value loss.
22/06/2021 2:06 PM
calvintaneng Since Thplant cost of cpo production is only Rm1,465

Cpo at Rm2,500 will yield more than 70% gross profit and more than enough to cover sukuk loan plus a profit

If Cpo at Rm3,000 will be good

Cpo at Rm3,500 will be great

Cpo at Rm4,000 will be fantastic
22/06/2021 2:07 PM


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