Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Wed, 27 Oct 2021, 4:42 AM

 

RECORD-HIGH EXPORTS GIVE INDONESIA MUCH-NEEDED BOOST FOR GROWTH (And these 7 Palm Oil Stocks will benefit, Calvin Tan Research

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Record-high exports give Indonesia much-needed boost for growth

September 15, 2021 19:31 pm 

Record-high exports give Indonesia much-needed boost for growth

 

(Sept 15): The global commodity boom sent Indonesia’s exports and trade surplus to all-time highs in August, giving its economy a necessary boost as consumption took a hit from prolonged pandemic lockdowns.

Outbound shipments climbed to US$21.4 billion last month, driven by higher trade volumes and commodity prices led by crude palm oil and coal, head of statistics office Margo Yuwono said in a briefing Wednesday. This made for a 64% annual jump, beating all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Trade surplus widened to its highest ever level of US$4.7 billion for the month, also surpassing all economist estimates which ranged from US$1.1 billion to US$3.1 billion.

It was the 16th consecutive month that Southeast Asia’s biggest economy posted a trade surplus, “a very good trend for the economic recovery and we expect it to continue,” Yuwono said. “Imports of raw materials and capital goods also showed an increase, indicating that production activity and demand from industrial sector improving,” he added.

The exports sector offers a buffer for growth as consumption — which accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s economy — is expected to plunge in the third quarter.

The upward trend in exports should also underpin the stability of the rupiah and give the central bank some breathing room ahead of its policy meeting on Sept 21, where it’s expected to keep rates at record lows, according to Wisnu Wardana, an economist at PT Bank Danamon in Jakarta.

SEE THIS NEWS FROM INDONESIA

Indonesia Breaks Record for Exports Value with

US$21.42bn in August: BPS

 

15 September 2021 16:34

 

 

 

TEMPO.COJakarta - Indonesia's central statistics agency, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), recorded US$21.42 billion export value in August 2021. According to BPS chief Margo Yuwono, this was a new record for Indonesia's exports.

"The previous highest was in August 2011, which was US$18.60 billion," Margo said in a press conference, Wednesday, September 15.

August 2021's export value reflects a 20.95 percent increase from the previous month and 64.10 percent higher compared to August 2020.

Margo said that non-oil and gas exports reached US$20.36 billion, up 21.75 percent from July and 63.43 percent year-on-year (yoy).

Overall, since the beginning of 2021, the accumulated value of Indonesia's exports from January to August 2021 reached US$142.01 billion, a 37.77-percent (yoy) increase.

Based on the provinces of origin, Margo added, West Java recorded the biggest export value so far this year with US$21.56 billion or 15.18 percent of the nation's total. The second largest was from East Java with US$14.87 billion (10.47%), followed by East Kalimantan with US$13.33 billion (9.39%).

 

Calvin comments:

Read again more carefully

It says

Indonesia's central statistics agency, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), recorded US$21.42 billion export value in August 2021. According to BPS chief Margo Yuwono, this was a new record for Indonesia's exports.

US$21.42 billion or RM90 BILLION RINGGIT is a NEW RECORD For Indonesia's Export

 

And read more

"The previous highest was in August 2011, which was US$18.60 billion," Margo said in a press conference, Wednesday, September 15.

 

The highest historic record was US$18.60 Billiions or RM78.5 BILLIONS

 

That means that the New Record High has overtaken the past record of year 2011 by another 15.2%!!

AND 2011 to 2014 PALM OIL SHARES WENT INTO A BULL RUN BOTH IN MALAYSIA & INDONESIA.

THAT WAS IN YEAR 2011 WHEN SOYOIL & PALM OIL WERE AT VERY HIGH PRICES

Now A NEW RECORD HAS BEEN SET

See the Reason

Outbound shipments climbed to US$21.4 billion last month, driven by higher trade volumes and commodity prices led by crude palm oil and coal,

It says,

Higher Trade volumes and commodity prices led by Palm Oil & Coal

 

SO THE MAIN REASON IS DUE TO HIGH EXPORT IN PALM OIL

 

SINCE EARNINGS ARE INCREASING BY LEAPS & BOUNDS IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME  SHARE PRICES FOLLOW

 

AND THESE ARE THE 4 MALAYSIAN PALM OIL COMPANIES WITH EXPOSURE TO INDONESIA

1) TSH RESOURCES

2) SIMEDARBY PLANT

3) THPLANT

4) AZRB

 

AND THESE ARE LISTED IN SINGAPORE WITH OIL PALMS IN INDONESIA

5) BUMITAMA (Over 400,000 Acres of Oil Palms

6) WILMAR

7) GOLDENAGRI

Best regards

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please buy/sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Fabien _the efficient capital allocator Kumpulan Fima has about 18,000 hectares in Kalimantan Indonesia and is very profitable.
16/09/2021 12:49 PM
stockraider Remember Indonesia levy on cpo exports is higher than msia but unlike malaysia, the Indonesian producers do not suffer from labor shortage mah!
16/09/2021 12:53 PM
calvintaneng Yes both Indonesia and Malaysia palm oil companies got their strengths and weaknesses

Counter balance by high prices with lack of workers in Malaysia and abundant cheap labour in Indonesia with high export taxes

But over all both are now very good enjoying the best boom times like never before
16/09/2021 1:01 PM
calvintaneng Yes Fabien

KFIMA is also a good stable dividend palm oil stocks with insider buying

However, KFIMA is more into pineapple, currency note printing through Fima Corp and others

Since Cpo prices now in historic high best still are Tsh, taann or SOP with 200,000 to 300,000 plantation lands in upstream
16/09/2021 1:06 PM
calvintaneng 200,000 acres are larger than Singapore total land mass of 180,000 acres

It takes more than one long hour driving from Tuas to Changi on Singapore island
And from Woodland north to Sentosa South another 40 minutes drive


That is how big 180,000 acres of land
16/09/2021 1:08 PM
stockraider I think wrong example loh...it should be 200k hectares for spore not 200k acres mah!
16/09/2021 1:12 PM
calvintaneng Singapore/Area
180,000 acres

https://www.google.com/search?q=singapore+total+land+in+acres&oq=singapore+total+land+in+acres&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i333.10720j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
16/09/2021 1:21 PM
hannahtai I liked the illustration of driving in Spore and size of the oil palm plantations. Great teacher, Calvin. Thanks!
16/09/2021 4:31 PM
calvintaneng Hannah

I see this is your first post in i3 forum

You registered to show appreciation

Calvin sincerely thank you

You got a heart of gratitude which is good
16/09/2021 5:12 PM


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