Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Wed, 27 Oct 2021, 4:42 AM

 

PALM OIL WILL BE A BRIGHT SHINING STAR AS VERY HIGH PROFIT-GROWTH PHASE IS NOW ON-GOING, Calvin Tan

Author:   |    Publish date:


Dear Friends

Happy times are returning to the Oil Palm Industries

Most already reported fantastic results by August 2021 for April to June 2021 qtrs

Some like Nsop, Riverview, Kfima, Innoplant, Chinteck Plant have even given out "Special Dividends" above its usual dividends

Bullish KLK has paid Rm3.10 to take over all the Ijmplant shares from Ijm Corp to be top holder.

Many many Insider Palm Oil Company Bosses have been buying their Palm Oil Company shares with their own personal hard earned monies

All these are like a gathering cloud coming with ABUNDANT SHOWERS OF BLESSINGS FOR ALL HAPPY INVESTORS OF PALM OIL COMPANIES LATER

The Most Important Factor A Business is set up for is to make Profit = REAL INCREMENTAL PROFITS (Not hypes or promise of "future" profits alone) At the present moment we SEE Palm oil will be doing exceedingly well due to the Following Factors

1) CPO NOW A MULTI YEAR HIGHS OVER RM4,000 to RM4,700 A Metric Ton

At average cost of Rm1500 per metric ton production for Cpo the profit ranged from 166% to over 213%

See palm oil prices

 

 

Date Settlement Price RM
23 Sep 21 4447
22 Sep 21 4330
21 Sep 21 4192
20 Sep 21 4173
17 Sep 21 4261
15 Sep 21 4440
14 Sep 21 4340
13 Sep 21 4318
10 Sep 21 4278
9 Sep 21 4392

 

The Big Question now is

"CAN THESE PRICES SUSTAIN???"

Calvin gives you the reasons why Prices of CPO should be well supported by these Positive Factors

See

A) 1.35 BILLION INDIANS NEED PALM OIL FOR NOV 14 DEEPAVALI/DIWALI FESTIVALS

NOVEMBER 14 2021 is Deepavali in Malaysia/Singapore & Diwali in India

INDIA's 1.35 BILLION PEOPLE WILL USE LOTS OF PALM OIL FOR THIS FESTIVAL

B) CHRISTMAS & YEAR 2022 NEW YEAR CELEBRATION

Lots of cakes, cookies, Food & celebrations. More use of palm oil as 50% of all Supermarket foods got palm oil

 

C) CHINESE LUNAR NEW YEAR FEBRUARY 1 2022

1.4 BILLIONS CHINESE WILL FEAST FOR 15 DAYS TILL CHAP GOH MEI

 

D) AND BETWEEN THIS TIME IS COLD COLD WINTER

Bank of America forecast this will be a Very Cold Winter & OIL will Spike Up to USD100 per barrel

See

 

Sept 13 (Reuters) - Bank of America Global Research said it could bring forward its $100 per barrel oil price target to the next six months from mid-2022 if the winter is colder than usual, potentially driving a surge in demand and widening a supply deficit.

A much colder than normal winter could lead global oil demand to surge by 1 to 2 million barrels per day (mbpd), with the winter supply shortfall easily exceeding 2 mpbd in such a scenario, the bank said in a note dated Sept. 10.

The bank maintained its Brent price forecast for the second half of 2021 at $70 a barrel, predicting range-bound prices, but said it saw Brent at $75/bbl by year end on "growing upside risks."

"We project modest deficits over the coming months that should support oil prices into year-end and beyond," analysts at the bank said in the note.

If that is true then Biodisel use will also spike up leading to high Soyoil & Palm Oil prices

 

E) WORLD POPULATION GROWS BY 160 MILLLION PEOPLE

Since March 2020 lock down Covid 19 death till now is less than 5 million people on earth total

But population growth per year is 80 Millions (just one per cent more babies born in one year out of 8 Billion human beings on earth) By March 2022 that will be 160 Million more people

 

All people need palm oil even babies

See

CHILDREN

Infant formula
Palm oil is high in palmitic acids, which is also found in breast milk. That is why palm oil is often used in infant milk formula as it most closely mimics the nutrition profile of breast milk.

Palm oil ingredient name: Palm olein
 
 
THEN THERE IS THE UPSURGE OF BIODISEL USE IN USA AS MANY ARE CONVERTING FOSSIL FUEL REFINERY TO BIODISEL REFINERY
 
SEE
 

A giant oil company is building the world's largest plant that turns vegetable oil and grease into fuel — yet another sign of rising demand for cleaner gasoline

 

 

 

  • Phillips 66 is converting a crude oil refinery in California into the world's largest renewable fuels plant, the company said Wednesday. 
  • The plant will turn used cooking oil, fats, greases, and soybean oil into diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel for the California market, which has a low-carbon-fuel standard. 

Right now in USA pastries shop are seeing high prices for corn and soybean as more are diverted to Biodisel Refinery

So they are crying out due to lack of cheap soybean

That is why Palm OIl Prices will remain elevated as the Biodisel Factor due to Renewable Energy has now come into focus

 

LATEST GOOD NEWS:

BOTH MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA HAVE STOPPED GIVING OUT NEW LICENSE FOR NEW PALM OIL COMPANIES

 

Indonesia says won't approve new palm oil permits after moratorium lapses

 

riday, 24 Sep 2021

JAKARTA, Sept 24 (Reuters): Indonesia will not approve new palm oil permits even after the lapse of a moratorium on new plantations, a senior government official said on Friday, amid concerns from green groups about a watering down in protection for forests.

The moratorium, which was introduced in 2018 to stop deforestation and improve governance in the palm oil industry, ended on Sept. 19 without any clear replacement.

 

This means Existing Palm Oil companies will face no threat from new competition unlike gloves which have low barrier to entry.

You can start a new glove factory in just 4 months and churching out production but it will take at least 6 long years from land sourcing, earth work preparation, approval, planting, growth and then harvesting. So there won't be competition any time soon till after year 2026.

 

THAT IS WHY PALM OIL WILL SEE SUSTAINED, STRUCTURAL DEMAND SUPPORT

And if Profit can sustain by continual growth it will be inevitable that Palm Oil Shares will come alive one day

So as they say, "Buy low and sell high" this palm oil business so pressed down by Esg & Mr Market total neglect is a delightful industries for bargain hunters of the time. And the time is now

 

Warm & happy regards to all

 

Calvin Tan

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence of consult your Remisier/Fund Manager

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this

  Haziq93 likes this.
 
OnTime oil palm companies will go through the same experience as glove companies.
25/09/2021 8:15 PM
calvintaneng yes but different time and different cycles

this comment I already anticipated

will come up with next post later

Palm oil versus medical gloves (their similarity and differences)

then you shall SEE the light

when light comes in all will be clear as crystal and you won't be left in the dark anymore
25/09/2021 8:28 PM
ooi8888 Post removed. Why?
25/09/2021 8:42 PM
calvintaneng John 8:12
“When Jesus spoke again to the people, he said, ‘I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness, but will have the light of life.’”
25/09/2021 11:37 PM
nuke @calvintaneng Most of the points raised in your article on palm oil are not new. They have been the same for many years. Diwali, Christmas, CNY, Hari Raya come every year so seasonal ups and downs are normal. Supermarket foodstuff containing palm oil have been the same for many years too. While the world population keeps growing, poverty due to the pandemic is increasing. Many people have seen their incomes fall or lost their jobs entirely and this number is increasing. This will mean they will buy less not more. How much can you buy on zero income?
26/09/2021 12:32 PM
stockraider It is not new how warren buffet make monies base on old fashion way of value investment mah!

Posted by nuke > Sep 26, 2021 12:32 PM | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng Most of the points raised in your article on palm oil are not new. They have been the same for many years. Diwali, Christmas, CNY, Hari Raya come every year so seasonal ups and downs are normal. Supermarket foodstuff containing palm oil have been the same for many years too. While the world population keeps growing, poverty due to the pandemic is increasing. Many people have seen their incomes fall or lost their jobs entirely and this number is increasing. This will mean they will buy less not more. How much can you buy on zero income?
26/09/2021 12:55 PM
investor2021trading Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 25, 2021 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

John 8:12
When Jesus spoke again to the people, "I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness, but will have the light of life."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil Palm Industry is too labour intensive! The production cost per ton CPO is vy high as compared to other industries. A slight dropped in demand of d commodity or face with an adverse weather condition or a squeezed on labour supply or a dropped of CPO price will wrecked d industry!
26/09/2021 1:05 PM
calvintaneng Posted by nuke > Sep 26, 2021 12:32 PM | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng Most of the points raised in your article on palm oil are not new. They have been the same for many years. Diwali, Christmas, CNY, Hari Raya come every year so seasonal ups and downs are normal. Supermarket foodstuff containing palm oil have been the same for many years too. While the world population keeps growing, poverty due to the pandemic is increasing. Many people have seen their incomes fall or lost their jobs entirely and this number is increasing. This will mean they will buy less not more. How much can you buy on zero income?

Hello Nuke,

Today is the LORD's Day

Please go read the Bible or hear a message

See https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-09-19-story-h1571615394-Calvin_Sunday_Sharing_R_A_Torrey_Every_Man_s_Need_of_a_Refuge.jsp

Now back to your question:

"How much can you buy on zero income?"

One question: Can trigger a thousand answers.

1) Now the Bible said that even to the time of the end men will still be eating & drinking.

Eating food is the very basic of survival. Without eating that will end in death. So even if zero income there is still "food banks" or people in Malaysia hanging out "white flags"

And what food do these people get?

a) Maggie mee or instant noodle

These got 20% palm oil

See

Maruchan—America’s #1 instant noodle brand—has been linked to the controversial ingredient Conflict Palm Oil. The true costs of Conflict Palm Oil are staggering. This widely used vegetable oil has been tied to the destruction of rainforests, carbon-rich peatlands and the abuse of human and worker rights.

Maruchan sells 67% of the instant noodles eaten in the US and uses massive amounts of palm oil in their top selling instant noodles sold across the globe. The average package of ramen noodles is a whopping 20% palm oil (by weight) …that’s a LOT of Conflict Palm Oil. Read https://www.ran.org/the-understory/maruchan_palm_oil_commitment_falls_short/

And certainly even if they cannot afford luxury they can still buy a cup or two of teh tarik? And the milk substitute in teh tarik is mainly palm oil

So palm oil will be still in use

Now tell me if people cannot afford to eat maggee mee or drink teh tarik how else they could avoid to buy a Tesla car worth Rm400,000 in Singapore

And Genetec makes EV battery for Tesla should have gone limit down? So expensive Rm400,000 a car how to buy if maggee mee also cannot afford to buy?

What about Airasia? Will people got enough money to pay for plane fare if cannot afford to pay for a cup of teh tarik?

So just think of all other businesses if the business of simple palm oil cannot
26/09/2021 1:07 PM
stockraider Not true mah....msia can take cpo price at rm 2300 & still profitable v current price of more than Rm 4000 mah!


Posted by investor2021trading > Sep 26, 2021 1:05 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 25, 2021 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

John 8:12
When Jesus spoke again to the people, "I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness, but will have the light of life."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil Palm Industry is too labour intensive! The production cost per ton CPO is vy high as compared to other industries. A slight dropped in demand of d commodity or face with an adverse weather condition or a squeezed on labour supply or a dropped of CPO price will wrecked d industry!
26/09/2021 1:09 PM
calvintaneng investor2021trading Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 25, 2021 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

John 8:12
When Jesus spoke again to the people, "I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness, but will have the light of life."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil Palm Industry is too labour intensive! The production cost per ton CPO is vy high as compared to other industries. A slight dropped in demand of d commodity or face with an adverse weather condition or a squeezed on labour supply or a dropped of CPO price will wrecked d industry!
26/09/2021 1:05 PM

Calvin replies:

Production cost very high as compared to other industries?

Production cost varies from Rm1400 to Rm1600 per ton. Check it out

Thplant cost of Cpo production is Rm1465 per ton

For efficient producer like Uplant it is as low as Rm1200 per ton (1,000 litres)
or Rm1.20 per litre

Now Mydin sells 5kg litre of Saji oil at Rm29.70
see https://mydinexpress.my/hypermart/product/saji-cooking-oil-5kg/

That is Rm5.94 per litre

From Rm1.20 to Rm5.94 is Rm4.74 profit or 395%

So can you tell me what other businesses right now can match the profit of palm oil averaging 100% to 300% for all?

For SOP with Merris Red Palm oil it is selling at Rm72 per litre in Singapore or 6,000% more!
See https://shopee.sg/2xMerris-Classic-Red-Palm-Oil-500ML-i.215803150.5056088525

THAT IS WHY SOP OR SARAWAK OIL PALM SHARE Should be in everyone's portfolio
26/09/2021 1:19 PM
stockraider The cost of cpo has risen to Rm 1800 to rm 2400 loh!

Due to shortage of labors for harvesting mah!


Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 26, 2021 1:19 PM | Report Abuse

investor2021trading Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 25, 2021 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

John 8:12
When Jesus spoke again to the people, "I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness, but will have the light of life."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil Palm Industry is too labour intensive! The production cost per ton CPO is vy high as compared to other industries. A slight dropped in demand of d commodity or face with an adverse weather condition or a squeezed on labour supply or a dropped of CPO price will wrecked d industry!
26/09/2021 1:05 PM

Calvin replies:

Production cost very high as compared to other industries?

Production cost varies from Rm1400 to Rm1600 per ton. Check it out

Thplant cost of Cpo production is Rm1465 per ton

For efficient producer like Uplant it is as low as Rm1200 per ton (1,000 litres)
or Rm1.20 per litre

Now Mydin sells 5kg litre of Saji oil at Rm29.70
see https://mydinexpress.my/hypermart/product/saji-cooking-oil-5kg/

That is Rm5.94 per litre

From Rm1.20 to Rm5.94 is Rm4.74 profit or 395%

So can you tell me what other businesses right now can match the profit of palm oil averaging 100% to 300% for all?

For SOP with Merris Red Palm oil it is selling at Rm72 per litre in Singapore or 6,000% more!
See https://shopee.sg/2xMerris-Classic-Red-Palm-Oil-500ML-i.215803150.5056...

THAT IS WHY SOP OR SARAWAK OIL PALM SHARE Should be in everyone's portfolio
26/09/2021 1:23 PM
stockraider Indonesia u get heavier levy & tax....the indo producer do not get such a high net cpo export prices like msia producers mah!


Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 26, 2021 1:37 PM | Report Abuse

stockraider The cost of cpo has risen to Rm 1800 to rm 2400 loh!

Due to shortage of labors for harvesting mah!

For Malaysia correct

Not in Indonesia where many Indons cannot come now. Wages there stagnate at Rm600 to Rm700 a month compared to Malaysia Rm1,000 to Rm1,500

So go for TSH RESOURCES as it has majority production from Indonesia. Thplant also got Palm oil estate in Kalimantan should also benefit from cheaper Indon labour
26/09/2021 1:40 PM
calvintaneng stockraider The cost of cpo has risen to Rm 1800 to rm 2400 loh!

Due to shortage of labors for harvesting mah!

For Malaysia correct

Not in Indonesia where many Indons cannot come now. Wages there stagnate at Rm600 to Rm700 a month compared to Malaysia Rm1,000 to Rm1,500

So go for TSH RESOURCES as it has majority production from Indonesia. Thplant also got Palm oil estate in Kalimantan should also benefit from cheaper Indon labour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2561n37Ig8
26/09/2021 1:40 PM
stockraider But then Tsh resources ASP of cpo....will be lower than pure msia producer asp cpo selling prices bcos tsh resources rely on indon plantation mah!

U understand the logic ??

Msia higher asp cpo....but higher production cost

Indon lower asp cpo....but lower production cost loh!


Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 26, 2021 1:40 PM | Report Abuse

stockraider The cost of cpo has risen to Rm 1800 to rm 2400 loh!

Due to shortage of labors for harvesting mah!

For Malaysia correct

Not in Indonesia where many Indons cannot come now. Wages there stagnate at Rm600 to Rm700 a month compared to Malaysia Rm1,000 to Rm1,500

So go for TSH RESOURCES as it has majority production from Indonesia. Thplant also got Palm oil estate in Kalimantan should also benefit from cheaper Indon labour
26/09/2021 1:52 PM
calvintaneng Tsh got best of two nations

It has Palm oil in Sabah as well as in Kalimantan & Sumatra exactly like Ijmplant

Slightly better than ijmplant because TSH also got 50/50 jv with Wilmar for Palm Oil Refinery in Sabah

https://www.tsh.com.my/plantation/milling-and-refinery/
26/09/2021 1:59 PM
stockraider Not really true....u get average of both world loh!

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 26, 2021 1:59 PM | Report Abuse

Tsh got best of two nations

It has Palm oil in Sabah as well as in Kalimantan & Sumatra exactly like Ijmplant

Slightly better than ijmplant because TSH also got 50/50 jv with Wilmar for Palm Oil Refinery in Sabah
26/09/2021 2:03 PM
calvintaneng WHY TSH RESOURCES SHOULD GO UP TO RM2.00 IF IJMPLANT IS WORTH RM3.10, Calvin Tan Research
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-07-22-story-h1568731457-WHY_TSH_RESOURCES_SHOULD_GO_UP_TO_RM2_00_IF_IJMPLANT_IS_WORTH_RM3_10_Ca.jsp
26/09/2021 2:05 PM
calvintaneng Very happy morning all

This week is the final lapse for Sept 2021 before the month is done.

By then we will witness another 3 solid months (July, August & September) of 2021 with Cpo prices ranging from Rm4,000 to Rm4,600 a ton

Very excellent results could be in store for all oil palm companies by November 2021 only 2 months away!

Not hope for or hope so....but a solid reality

Let's expect more

1) Higher dividends
2) Special dividends
3) Free Bonus Issues
4) Free warrants
5) A possible windfall surprise take-over like KLK taking over IjmPlant at Rm3.10 from Rm2.20

So just hold on to your precious oil palm shares

Good things are in store for all happy holders

Warm regards
Calvin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_ySoCpqyGs
27/09/2021 8:50 AM


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