Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Sat, 21 Sep 2019, 11:12 AM

 

TRACKING UZMA HISTORIC PRICES SHOW GROSSLY UNDERVALUE POSITION, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Hi guys,

Of all 4 OGSE - DAYANG, CARIMIN, PENERGY & UZMA Of the Four UZMA Stands Out As A Grossly Oversold Stock

 

Let's Refer to DYNAQUEST Past Prices of Uzma (Till Year 2015)

 

CRITICAL STOCK MARKET INFORMATION

 

YEAR..............Year low....Year high............EPS

2008................0.47..........0.77....................4.8 sen

2009................0.45..........0.71....................-5.6 sen

2010................0.48..........0.72....................-0.7 sen

2011................0.56..........0.93....................5.6 sen

2012...............0.60...........0.89...................9.4 sen

2013...............0.80...........2.79...................14 sen

2014...............1.28...........4.28...................13.9 sen  (Those who chased at peak price Rm4.28 for RI are stupid)

2015...............1.60..........,2.62...................16.8 sen

 

Why in year 2014 UZMA Share Price Jumped from a low of Rm1.28 to the all time high of Rm4.28?

These are 2 reasons

 

1) For 2 years Uzma EPS increased to double digits (14 sen for year 2013 & 13.9 sen for year 2014)

2) In Year 2014 Uzma gave out Rights Issue One for One at 75 sen

 

See

Circular/Notice to Shareholders

UZMA BERHAD

 

Subject

CIRCULAR TO SHAREHOLDERS IN RELATION TO 

(I) PROPOSED RENOUNCEABLE RIGHTS ISSUE OF 132,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH (“RIGHTS SHARES”) AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM0.75 PER RIGHTS SHARE ON THE BASIS OF ONE (1) RIGHTS SHARE FOR EVERY ONE (1) EXISTING ORDINARY SHARE OF RM0.50 EACH (“SHARES”) HELD IN UZMA AT AN ENTITLEMENT DATE TO BE DETERMINED LATER ("PROPOSED RIGHTS ISSUE"); AND

(II) PROPOSED INCREASE IN THE AUTHORISED SHARE CAPITAL OF UZMA FROM RM100,000,000 COMPRISING 200,000,000 SHARES TO RM250,000,000 COMPRISING 500,000,000 SHARES AND IN CONSEQUENCE THEREOF, THE COMPANY’S MEMORANDUM OF ASSOCIATION BE ALTERED ACCORDINGLY (“PROPOSED INCREASE IN THE AUTHORISED SHARE CAPITAL”). 

(COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS THE “PROPOSALS”)
 

 

 

Now if we take the very lowest price for year 2014 at Rm1.28

To qualify for RI at 75 sen  the average cost will be

Rm1.28 + .75 divided by 2 = Rm1.015 or Rm1.02 per share cost to all Holders in year 2014

ASSUMING ALL DIRECTORS TOOK UP RIGHTS SHARES OF UZMA IN YEAR 2014 THEIR EX RIGHTS COST PRICE WILL BE RM1.02 PER SHARE

YES! THAT IS THEIR HOLDING COST TILL NOW IN YEAR 2019 (RM1.02)

QUESTION NOW IS

AT 66.5 SEN CURRENT PRICE OF UZMA IN REAL TIME HAVE THEY SOLD ANY FROM YEAR 2014 TO 2019?

 

AND WITHIN THESE 5 YEARS (2014 to 2019) IF THEY DID SELL....THEN DO WE KNOW AT WHAT PRICES THEY SOLD?

VERY GOOD.

FOR THE ANSWERS LET'S GO TO i3 INVESTORS' FORUM UNDER UZMA & TRACK DIRECTORS' BUYING OR SELLING ACTIVITIES FOR YEARS 2014 TO YEAR 2019

 

SO HERE WE SEE ALL THEIR TRADES FROM RI AT 75 SEN TO CURRENT PRICES

THE HIGHEST PRICE DISPOSED WAS RM3.60 & THE LOWEST DISPOSED PRICE WAS RM1.00 UNTIL YEAR 2018

FOR YEAR 2019 NO DIRECTOR SOLD ANY UZMA SHARES

IF WHAT 3 IB (INVESTMENT BANKS) DOWNGRADE WERE TRUE THE FIRST TO DISPOSE THEIR SHARES SHOULD BE DIRECTORS/INSIDERS

SO FAR NO DIRECTOR HAS SOLD ANY UZMA SHARES BELOW RM1.00

IN FACT IF YOU STUDY THE BUY/SELL MORE CAREFULLY THERE WAS ONLY ONE TRANSACTION DONE AT RM1.00

THIS 1,000 LOTS WERE SOLD BETWEEN 2 DIRECTORS OF UZMA

IF WE ELIMINATE THIS DEAL THEN WE KNOW EXACTLY THAT THE VERY LOWEST BASE PRICE OF DIRECTORS' SALE OF UZMA SHARES WAS RM1.20

 

YES! RM1.20 WAS THE LOWEST PRICE DIRECTORS WILLING TO SELL FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS

THEN WHO SOLD DOWN UZMA FROM RM1.20?

ANSWER:

1) THE FICKLE MR. MARKET

2) SORCHAI WHO LISTENED TO THE DOWNGRADES OF 3 IB (INVESTMENT BANKS)

3) KWAP 

NOW AFTER UZMA WAS SOLD DOWN BELOW 60 SEN = 3 DIRECTORS REPORTED TO BURSA THAT THEY INTENT TO TRADE IN UZMA SHARES

AND THESE ARE 2 BUY TRANSACTIONS REVEALED:

 

NOW ALL MUST REMEMBER AND KEEP IN MIND THAT FOR ALL DIRECTORS WHO EXERCISED RIGHTS BUY ISSUE THEIR LOWEST NET HOLDING COST IS RM1.02

SO ANYTHING BELOW 75 SEN ALREADY A BUY

AT BELOW 60 SEN IT IS IRRESISTABLE BARGAIN

BUT UZMA EXPERIENCED DOUBLE BOTTOM OF 55 SEN TWICE

WHY DIDN'T DIRECTORS GAVE NOTICE TO BUY EARLIER

WHY ONLY NOW?

IS UZMA GOING TO SEE BETTER TIMES AHEAD?

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence

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Labels: UZMA

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
UZMA 0.915 -0.01 (1.08%) 9,704,700 

  Be the first to like this.
 
calvintaneng Just like NAIM FIRING UP UZMA ALSO GOT POWERFUL BOOSTERS SOON

1) APRIL TO JUNE 2019 16 OIL WELL DECOMMISSIONING WILL BE SMOOTH AS MONSOON OVER. CASH PROFITED TO BE REPORTED

2) KWAP SELLING ALMOST FINISHED

3) EPF MIGHT RESTART BUYING AGAIN
EPF BOUGHT FROM 90 SEN TO OVER RM1.00
SEE

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 24-May-2019 Acquired 237,300 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 06-May-2019 Acquired 157,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 30-Apr-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000

EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 19-Apr-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 17-Apr-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 11-Apr-2019 Acquired 79,200 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 09-Apr-2019 Disposed 135,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 29-Mar-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 28-Mar-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 27-Mar-2019 Acquired 90,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 26-Mar-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 25-Mar-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 22-Mar-2019 Acquired 14,700 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 21-Mar-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000 View Detail
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD 19-Mar-2019 Acquired 100,000 0.000

WHO HAS MORE FIRE POWER?

KWAP OR EPF

EPF OF COURSE!!

EPF = EXTRA POWER FIRING


4) DIRECTORS/INSIDERS BUYING SHOW OPTIMISM

SEE

DATO' CHE NAZAHATUHISAMUDIN BIN CHE HARON 08-Aug-2019 Acquired 89,000 0.595 View Detail
DATO CHE NAZAHATUHISAMUDIN BIN CHE HARON 07-Aug-2019 Acquired 80,000 0.576
18/08/2019 9:58 PM
calvintaneng WATCHING SINGAPORE NATIONAL DAY SPEECH

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/live-blog-national-day-rally-2019-11811160
18/08/2019 11:03 PM
3iii UZMA


Total Equity (RM m)
2018 480
2017 -
2016 421
2015 371
2014 264
2013 135


UZMA

Price 66.5 Sen
Financial Information
Market Capital (RM): 212.82m
Number of Share: 320.03m
EPS (cent): -
P/E Ratio: -
ROE (%): -
Dividend (cent): 0.000
Dividend Yield (%): 0.00
Dividend Policy (%): 0
NTA (RM): 1.540




For 2 long years, 2017 to 2018, insiders sold their shares in UZMA. Many who bought these shares from them (including Calvin ?) are having paper losses or realised losses.

THE SELLING IN 2018 by insiders were at prices below the company’s NAV, below book value. Why?

When the share price fell by 20%, don’t just buy. Ask, why has the share price fallen so massively. Is there any fundamental deterioration in the business? Look at the downside before embracing its upside.

How much upside is there in this company assuming Calvin bought this stock at 80 Sen or 90 Sen?


Maybe do a comparative study between RI of UZMA and the latest capital raising by AEON CREDIT? After RI in UZMA, its price fell below the price of its rights. The reverse is true for AEON CREDIT. What led to the different outcome? Study the ROE for an answer.
19/08/2019 8:28 AM
calvintaneng For UZMA

After RI (Lowest cost Rm1.02) Directors sold from Rm1.20 to Rm3.60.

So they were making profits
19/08/2019 8:50 AM
calvintaneng Why UZMA share price fell below RI of 75 sen?

ANSWER

BECAUSE

1) 3 IB (INVESTMENT BANKS) CALL FOR A SELL ON UZMA.

People with light ears and fearful hearts were selling.

NONE OF UZMA DIRECTORS SOLD BELOW RM1.00

IN FACT DIRECTORS JUST BOUGHT UZMA AT 59.5 SEN LAST WEEK

THE QUESTION SHOULD BE CURRENT

WHY DIRECTORS ONLY NOW STARTING TO BUY WHEN RESULTS FOR AUFUST 2019 GOING TO BE ANNOUNCED SOON?
19/08/2019 8:53 AM
calvintaneng FORGET ABOUT AEO CREDIT FOR NOW AS NAJIB TAXED CHHB AND MK LAND WHO WERE TUN DR M CRONIES

NOW AEON CREDIT SUSPECTED TO BE OWNED BY ROSMAH

SO AEON CREDIT MIGHT FACE MORE TAXES SOON

JUST STICK WITH UZMA AS INSIDERS BUYING SHOW A MORE POSITIVE FUTURE

BUY THE NOW (DON'T GET STUCK IN THE PAST)

YOU MISSED THE RALLY IN CARIMIN, NAIM & LAFARGE WHILE TALKING SO MUCH

EMPTY VESSEL MAKES THE MOST NOISE

ALL BUYING UZMA WILL BE LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO THE BANKS
19/08/2019 8:57 AM
calvintaneng 3iii?

Answer

1) IRRELEVANT (LIVE IN THE PAST)

2) IGNORANT (DON'T KNOW UP TO DATE INVESTMENT)

3) IDIOT (GO DISTURBING OTHERS WITHOUT ANY FRESH NEW IDEAS OR STOCKS TO RECOMMEND FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS) DON'T TELL US THERE ARE NO GOOD POTENTIAL STOCKS FOR NOW AND THE NEXT 5 YEARS (WHY SO STUCK IN IN PAST DINOSAUR STOCKS?)
19/08/2019 9:00 AM
calvintaneng THE GOOD PROSPECTS OF UZMA

1) PRICE NOW SELLING FAR BELOW NTA AS A MARGIN OF SAFETY

VERY DEFENSIVE


2) INSIDERS STARTED BUYING.

THERE MUST BE SOMETHING BREWING AHEAD?

3) PETRONAS REFINERY IN RAPID NEEDS 54 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE (EXTRA) SO MORE JOBS FOR OG UPSTREAM JOBS TO BE AWARDED

AND UZMA IS IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME


4) MONSOON NOW OVER

APRIL TO JUNE 2019 MONTHS RESULTS SHOULD SHOW PROGRESS IN 16 OIL WELL DECOMMISSIONING JOBS COMPLETED

THIS WILL BOOST PERFORMANCE FOR AUGUST 2019

SO BUY NOW BEFORE GOOD RESULT OUT

NOT PANIC CHASE UZMA LATER AFTER RESULT OUT IN THE OPEN

SEE HOW CALVIN CHUN CHUN FORECAST KPS CASH PAYOUT AFTER KPS RECEIVED COMPENSATION FOR WATER ASSETS

ONLY AFTER CASH PAYOUT 32.60 SEN ANNOUNCED PEOPLE PANIC BUY KPS OVER RM1.69 TO THEIR DETRIMENT

SO BUY UZMA WHILE CHEAP NOW!!!

NOT CHASE UZMA IN PANIC LATER AND THEN BLAME CALVIN?

LISTEN LISTEN LISTEN!!!

THE TIME TO BUY UZMA IS NOW NOW NOW!!!
19/08/2019 9:09 AM
3iii Calvin is very poor in valuing his stocks.

With ROE of 3.5%, he wants you to value this company at its book value!

Maybe he should undergo a study under KC Chong too.

Such a gruesome company, after deriving your intrinsic value, you will still want a huge margin of safety, perhaps, 50% below the intrinsic value price.
19/08/2019 11:20 AM
3iii >>>

Calvin is very poor in valuing his stocks.

With ROE of 3.5%, he wants you to value this company at its book value!

Maybe he should undergo a study under KC Chong too.

Such a gruesome company, after deriving your intrinsic value, you will still want a huge margin of safety, perhaps, 50% below the intrinsic value price.

>>>>


Actually, the smarter investors give such company a pass and just look at others with quality and better upside/downside potential.
19/08/2019 11:25 AM
stockraider SOHAI 3iii DON UNDERSTAND INVESTMENT HANDICAPS LOH...!!

YES ROE MAYBE LOW....THIS IS A HANDICAPS BUT IT IS COMPENSATED BY LOW PE OF LESS THAN 9X WHICH GIVE IT A EARNING YIELD OF 11% PA AND HIGH NTA OF RM 1.54 FAR EXCEEDING NESTLE WITH EARNINGS YIELD OF ONLY 2% PA ONLY LOH...!!

Posted by 3iii > Aug 19, 2019 11:20 AM | Report Abuse

Calvin is very poor in valuing his stocks.

With ROE of 3.5%, he wants you to value this company at its book value!

Maybe he should undergo a study under KC Chong too.

Such a gruesome company, after deriving your intrinsic value, you will still want a huge margin of safety, perhaps, 50% below the intrinsic value price.
19/08/2019 11:28 AM
calvintaneng Hahaha

A cow cannot eat meaty stock like beef

Only human eats meaty stock like Uzma with high NTA
19/08/2019 1:37 PM
calvintaneng A cow like 3iii will call Uzma gruesome

Wahaha
19/08/2019 1:37 PM
calvintaneng When we buy pm Corp, carimin, Naim or lafarge this dumb 3iii call them gruesome ?

Gruesome ?

Gold shining


He cannot see
19/08/2019 1:39 PM
3iii https://www.corporateinformation.com/ImageSvr/Chart.ashx?T=SS&C=C4588NS10
19/08/2019 3:55 PM
3iii Just to educate RITA on gruesome companies. :-)


Let us now move on to businesses that Buffett has labeled as 'Gruesome' and he proffers the following view on them.

He says, "The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.
Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers."




Indeed, if investors stick to 'Great' and 'Good' businesses in their investment lifetimes and buy them at attractive prices, they are unlikely to end up poor.
19/08/2019 4:05 PM
stockraider The bad investment is u overpay on stock with PE above 50x loh....!!

Bad investment business are stocks with no margin of safety or negative margin of safety loh.....!!

Posted by stockraider > Aug 19, 2019 11:28 AM | Report Abuse X

SOHAI 3iii DON UNDERSTAND INVESTMENT HANDICAPS LOH...!!

YES ROE MAYBE LOW....THIS IS A HANDICAPS BUT IT IS COMPENSATED BY LOW PE OF LESS THAN 9X WHICH GIVE IT A EARNING YIELD OF 11% PA AND HIGH NTA OF RM 1.54 FAR EXCEEDING NESTLE WITH EARNINGS YIELD OF ONLY 2% PA ONLY LOH...!!

Posted by 3iii > Aug 19, 2019 4:05 PM | Report Abuse

Just to educate RITA on gruesome companies. :-)

Let us now move on to businesses that Buffett has labeled as 'Gruesome' and he proffers the following view on them.

He says, "The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.
Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers."

Indeed, if investors stick to 'Great' and 'Good' businesses in their investment lifetimes and buy them at attractive prices, they are unlikely to end up poor.
19/08/2019 4:11 PM
calvintaneng Uzma at 68 sen has Nta of Rm1.54 provides a huge margin of safety

Back of value investing at its very core is Margin of safety. And margin of safety rest in it's net net assets which is also net value

Now net assets could be used as leverage for bank borrowings, or could be cashed out in emergency to meet debt obligation

And one very good aspect is liquidation for real value

Selling all net assets and convert to pure cash minus all liabilities will result in cash windfall
19/08/2019 9:33 PM
calvintaneng Another good point is the attraction as a candidate for privatisation

Entities who look for value will take a company private by offering an attractive price

Example is Kulim.
Kulim has lousy earnings as a plantation company but Kulim own prime plantations in the Pengerang region
After Jcorp took Kulim private and offered it rm4. 10...a huge windfall of 60% from Rm2. 50 to all happy shareholders

Jcorp converted Kulim plantation lands to thriving housing enclave

So Nta is not static.
There is Value to be unlocked
19/08/2019 9:41 PM
calvintaneng Another stock with poor earnings but high nta was TheStore

TheStore cannot compete with Tesco, Aeon or Giant so its sales are mediocre

BUT TheStore has high nta

So controlling share holders offered to take TheStore private by offering a premium of more than 30%

Now TheStore owns very prime lands of great value

So TheStore was not taken private for its business but for its assets value
19/08/2019 9:44 PM
calvintaneng Calvin can understand assets as an ultimate store of value because Calvin and group owns and manage more than 30 houses

I doubt 3iii owns more than 2 houses.

He has no idea of assets focus type of investment
19/08/2019 9:46 PM
calvintaneng Assets are cash in solidifaction

Think like this

We start with nothing

First we work for cash

Then we buy substance

1. WE BUY A HOUSE. CASH IS NEEDED FOR DOWNPAYMENT AND INSTALLMENT
SO CASH IS CONVERTED PROGRESSIVELY TO ASSETS.
HOUSES DO APPRECIATE OVER TIME
19/08/2019 9:48 PM
calvintaneng We also buy cars
Cash is converted to cars

Now houses are appreciating assets while cars are depreciating assets

So better buy a house of value and drive an economical car like Warren Buffet
19/08/2019 9:49 PM
calvintaneng In Uzma case it buys HWUs

These hwus were bought when USD was only one to rm3. 00

Now USD has gone up more than 30% against ringgit

OGSE ppe are very expensive

So there is high barrier of entry

Uzma is fortunate to own a whole spectrum
19/08/2019 9:52 PM
calvintaneng Coming up next

Uzma also invest in high quality high profit companies to generate superior returns
19/08/2019 10:28 PM
calvintaneng Where is the stupid 3iii now?

Kacau good shares like Uzma with good solid margin of safety but never warn people in Utusan now going bankrupt with negative NTA?

Stupid 3iii
Bodoh 3iii
20/08/2019 12:38 PM
greatwall sell
20/08/2019 2:42 PM
calvintaneng Yes sell utusan now

For Uzma see result in 10 days time soon
20/08/2019 3:30 PM


 

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