Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Fri, 13 Dec 2019, 12:55 AM

 

NAIM FIRED UP ON ALL 4 ENGINES BUT CMSB(2852) HAS 7 SEVEN ENGINES OF GROWTH, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Hi guys, Please read while I type to the end

Early this year Calvin recommended Naim of Sarawak at 52.5 sen because Naim Fired Up on 4 Engines of Growth.

Today Naim closed at Rm1.08 for more than 100% upside at Rm1.08 (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/5073.jsp

To night Calvin has found another Great Stock in Sarawak called CMSB (2852) with 7 Engines of Growth

First take a look at Naim again

NAIM is Firing Up on All Four Engines just like the 747 Jumbo Plane, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date: 

 

 

 


 

Hi guys,

Today Dayang suddenly spiked up due to the momentum triggered in O&G interest in Carimin.

And Naim followed close behind in its price surge

But Naim has 3 other engines of growth even without Dayang

So what are the Other 3?

The other three are Pan Borneo Highway, Construction & Real Estate

Altogather NAIM has four engines of growth like 4x4 cylinders firing now. The macro picture looks good

 

Now let's take a closer look at the micro level

 

1)  The Latest Table of content gave a Resounding Turnaround

 

UMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Sep 2018

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Sep 2018
30 Sep 2017
30 Sep 2018
30 Sep 2017
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
178,760
53,654
438,949
260,950
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
33,865
-86,065
31,128
-118,094
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
30,530
-94,828
24,505
-130,385
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
30,323
-95,014
23,398
-130,949
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
12.80
-40.10
9.87
-55.27
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
4.2800
4.1800
 

 

All revenue, profit & Nta increased from last year quarter

 

2) NAIM IS SELLING AT HUGE DISCOUNT TO NAV

At 52.5 sen with NTA of Rm2.40 (adjusted 2 for 3 bonus) is selling at almost 80% discount to NTA

Naim at its recent peak was over Rm6.00 & now price has fallen by 90% near historic low....making this a great bargain

 

3) POWERFUL EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS)

So good. Naim has not only High NTA it has also got Powerful Earnings

And this is not just a one off

Refer to Qtr result

The Group recorded higher revenue of RM438.9 million for the period under review, as compared to RM261.0 million reported in the corresponding period of 2017. The increase was contributed by both Property and Construction divisions, which recorded a 78% increase in their revenue when compared against that achieved in the corresponding period of 2017, due to increased work progress and additional new property sales [see Note 17.1 (b) for details].

Property segment recorded an increase in its revenue and profit during the current period under view. The increase was partly contributed by increased work progress achieved. Higher new sales of about RM100.6 million (January to September 2017: RM92.9 million) also had led to the increase in the property revenue and profit during the 9-month period.

17.2 Review of performance of major associate Our associate, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd. (“DEHB”), reported an unaudited profit after tax attributable to owners of about RM66.5 million, against a loss of RM89.7 million registered in the corresponding period of 2017. The improvement in the DEHB performance wasmainly due to higher maintenance work orders performed during the period under review.

So from here we can see that all three

Construction

Property

Oil & Gas (Dayang)

are doing well

Resulting is a nice 12.8 sen profit this last quarter

 

4) PAN BORNEO HGHWAY

This single connecting highway will increase the Value of NAIM LANDBANKS By manifold

In the 1950s One Acre Land in Shah Alam was worth only Rm5,000. After KL - Klang Federal Highway was built the Lands in Shah Alam increased by manifold.

Like the wild wild West of USA in its pioneer days those lands were given free to settlers. Same goes for those Lands in Pahang in early days. After the KL - Karak Highway was built land prices soared in Pahang. And the PLUS- North South Highway unlocked the land Value from Perlis to Perak... from Seremban to the Southernmost part of Johor.

Since NAIM is the Largest Real Estate Land Owner in Sarawak it stands to gain the most in Land Value appreciation

And spearheading its future

See

Naim Holdings Berhad has accepted the award of Pan Borneo Highway Project which is the package work for Pantu Junction to Batang Skrang in Sarawak. The contract is estimated to worth at least RM 1.1 Billion for Naim Holdings Berhad.

 

5)NAIM CASHING IN ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING

KUCHING: Naim Holdings Bhd, which has a huge landbank in Sarawak’s major towns, expects to build at least 1,000 units of affordable houses in three years to cash in on market demand.

Managing director Datuk Hasmi Hasnan said Naim’s main focus was to build more affordable houses in Miri, Kuching and Bintulu where it has over 2,500 acres of prime land.

The land has an average book value of RM170,000 per acre and RM4 per square foot.

Hasmi said Naim had in the past several years switched to undertaking high-end residential property projects like high-rise condominiums because the government was very aggressive in building affordable houses like 1Malaysia People’s Housing or 1PRIMA nationwide.

He said as the new Pakatan Harapan government would like to see the private sector’s participation in providing affordable homes, “we see we can play our role here”.

Hasmi said Naim had received good market response to its newly launched affordable housing scheme Primrose Terraces in SouthLake Permyjaya in Miri.

“The single-storey terrace houses there are offered at about RM300,000 each,” he told StarBiz after the company’s AGM here.

NOTE: NAIM COST OF LAND ONLY RM4 PER SQ FT

ONE ACRE LAND CAN BUILD 10 HOUSES OR RM3 MILLIONS

 

 

THE PROFIT WILL BE PHENOMENAL

 

6) PROXIMITY TO BRUNEI (NAIM'S MIRI LANDBANKS

NAIM'S HOUSING ENCLAVE IN MIRI IS ONLY 2 HOURS BY CAR TO BRUNEI

 

It takes more than 8 Hours by Car from Brunei to Kota Kinabalu

 

Just like the Strong Singapore Dollar the Brunei Dollar is worth Rm3.00 each

 

So expect NAIM's Properties to sell well in Miri

 

 

NAIM ALSO HAS INVESTMENT IN DAYANG

 

For that I quote from post of one i3 Forumer:

 

 

Author:   |    Publish date: 

 

 


 

There is no misleading or bullshit here, so I will put a link there for your reference. I list down only 5 reasons why Dayang Enterprise is a good proxy for Carimin Petroleum, especially for now.

 

1) 84% vessel utilization rate. Yup, it is 84%

How much the vessel utilization rate in March 2018? It was only 27%. Then it had increased to 70% in Jun 2018. Now the vessel utilization rate of Dayang is as high as 84%. What it means by such high vessel utilization rate? It means the worst is over for Dayang, so they had recorded very good results in second and third quarter 2018.

 

2) Secured multiple MCM contracts last year, NOT only one

Yes, multiple MCM contracts has secured last year. These projects are secured from Petronas Carigali and other oil & gas players in local industry. This year they will bid for the contracts worth RM600 million, both local and overseas. 

 

3) Sustainable EPS but share price lagging behind

As you know, Carimin Petroleum had been shot up from RM0.205 to RM0.85 just in few months. And for Dayang, it has ranged from RM0.50 to RM3.90 within this 5 years. Too early to say it will return to its glory time but I’m sure that the downside risk is very very very limited now. (The important thing must say 3 times)

 

4) The group "firmly believe" the worst is over

“We firmly believe that 2018 will be a real turnaround for the group after experiencing poor results over the past two financial years…” You can read this statement on their latest quarter prospects. Looks like they are very confident that they will turnaround this year. 

 

5) Improving balance sheet in next few quarters/years

Dayang's management very confident that their balance sheet will continue to improve "significantly" as the impressive financial performance in the third quarter has indirectly demonstrated the financial discipline undertaken to turn around the company. 

 

If you missed the Carimin Petroleum, maybe Dayang is another good proxy to you. But please do your homework before buying. Please feel free to comment. Thank you for reading.

 

 

So what should be the Intrinsic Value of Naim

 

Uncle KYY has calculated the price of carimin due to its one quarter result

And i quote 

 

Carimin: Waiting for Correction Strategy - Koon Yew Yin

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Mon, 4 Feb 2019, 12:30 PM 

""In my previous article namely Carimin-is doing what business, I said that just based on its 1st Q EPS of 5 sen, I have projected the company will most likely report 4 X 5 = 20 sen EPS and its share price can be selling at Rm 2.00, equal to P/E 10.""

 

In the simplistic (simpleton) way of projecting carimin share price at P/E 10 Kyy used the forward EPS of 5x4 for carimin

Should we use this to calculate NAIM?

Then it will be 12.8 x 4 = 51.2 sen

And if PE 10 then NAIM should be Rm5.12 target price?

Of course not! This is not maths. This is madness

 

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan

Singapore

 

STOP PRESS!

 

A more realistic Value of Naim at this juncture would be:

 

1) The 30% Discount from NTA method by Ben Graham

Ben Graham & Walter Schloss look for at least 30% discount to Value of Assets

So Rm2.40 X .7 = Rm1.68 would present a 30% discount

So is the Target Price of NAIM at Rm1.68?

 

2) Marks Howard does not predict future earnings. He works from the present

So take this latest quarter true EPS of 12.8 sen

So 10 times PRESENT P/E would be Rm1.28

 

3) So wil the Target Range for NAIM be Rm1.28 to Rm1.68?

No one knows exactly how things will turn out as it is yet future

But these are some pointers

Have a fruitful & profitable day!

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

CALVIN CONTINUES:

AT ITS RECENT PEAK NAIM REACHED RM1.44 BUT CLOSED TODAY AT RM1.08 FOR MORE THAN 100% GAIN 

NOW THESE ARE THE 7 ENGINES OF GROWTH FOR CMSB

1) PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY

PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY WILL BE A POWERFUL CATALYST TO SPUR THE GROWTH OF DEMAND FOR CMSB JUST AS LAFARGE CEMENT (NOW MCECEMT) WAS BOOSTED BY THE ECRL

Calvin also called for a Chun Chun Buy on Lafarge at Rm2.25 Before news of Ytl Cement took over and changed name to MCEMANT (See https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/199876.jsp

At its recent peak over Rm4.50 Lafarge also up 100% See https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3794.jsp

SO CMSB BEING THE CEMENT MONOPOLY IN EAST MALAYSIA WILL SEE LOTS OF PROFITS FROM THE ONGOING PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY

 

2) SACOFA ANOTHER MONOPOLY FOR FIBER OPTIC TOWER TRANSMISSION

Another Engine of Growth is Sacofa of which CMSB owns 50%

This is the SOLE MONOPOLY FOR FIBER OPTIC TRANSMISSION TOWERS IN SARAWAK & THRU THE WHOLE LENGTH OF THE PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY AS WELL

See https://www.sacofa.com.my/web/

SACOFA SDN BHD (552905-P) is a "one-stop centre" providing telecommunication infrastructure to service providers in Sarawak.

Incorporated on 11 July 2001 under the Company Act, 1965, SACOFA's primary objectives are to build and expand the provision of telecommunication network infrastructures throughout Sarawak.

To facilitate SACOFA in achieving its objectives, the State Government granted the Company with the exclusive right to construct, own and manage the communication infrastructure on the concept of sharing basis.

Read again

the State Government granted the Company with the exclusive right to construct, own and manage the communication infrastructure

SACOFA HAS THE EXCLUSIVE RIGHT (OR MONOPOLY) FOR COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE IN SARAWAK

THESE ARE THE CUSTOMERS OF SACOFA

MAXIS\

CELCOM

PRESS METAL

TELEKOM MALAYSIA (This One Also Subject to SACOFA)

PETRONAS

TIME

REDTONE

SAPURA

SARAWAK ENERGY

P1

DIGI

SINCE SACOFA IS THE SOLE MONOPOLY ALL MUST GO THRU IT WITHOUT EXCEPTION

(EVEN ROHAS AND OCK CANNOT PENETRATE THIS MOAT)

 

3) THIRD ENGINE OF GROWTH IS ITS 20.05% INVESTMENT IN KKB

 

CMS holds a 20.05% stake in this Bursa listed Sarawak-based manufacturer of steel water pipes, gas canisters and fabricator of steel structures for commercial projects.

It also manufactures onshore fabrication of offshore facilities for the Oil & Gas industry under its Petronas approved supplier licence.

KKB HAS DONE VERY WELL IN ITS LATEST RESULT

See

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Sep 2019

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Sep 2019
30 Sep 2018
30 Sep 2019
30 Sep 2018
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
165,478
112,183
403,004
269,935
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
28,804
10,643
46,677
16,359
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
23,408
8,587
36,188
12,555
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
19,335
6,932
28,045
10,036
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
7.50
2.69
10.88
3.89
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.2300
1.1600
 

 

4) CMSB IS TOP HOLDER OF KENANGA INVENTMENT BANK AT 25%

CMS holds directly and through 95% owned CMS Capital Sdn Bhd, a 25.38% effective stake in this Bursa Malaysia listed company, which is a leading independent Malaysian investment bank, broker, fund manager and futures trader with a newly established wealth management division.

It is one of Malaysia’s largest broking houses in both the retail and institutional segments, with one of the largest pools of remisiers and an extensive branch network nationwide.

RAKUTEN IS ALSO THE ONLINE TRADING ARM OF KENANGA/CMSB

 

5) CMSB ALSO BIDS FOR CONSTRUCTION JOBS BY PPES FROM THE PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY

Seehttps://www.cmsb.com.my/ppesw-bpsb-jv-clinched-pan-borneo-highway-job/

PPESW BPSB JV clinched Pan Borneo Highway job

PPES Works (Sarawak) Sdn Bhd accepted a Letter of Award from Lebuhraya Borneo Utara Sdn Bhd for the Proposed Development & Upgrading of Pan Borneo Highway in Sarawak.

PPES Works (Sarawak) signed a 70:30 Joint Venture with Bina Puri Sdn Bhd for Phase 1 of Work Package Contract (WPC) 06 for a contract sum of RM1.358 billion.

WPC 06 stretches from Sg. Awik Bridge to Bintangor Junction (64.486km) is set for the duration of 47 months ending on 31 August 2020.

 

6) 3 NEW AIRPORTS IN SARAWAK PROPOSED

Sarawak govt expected to fund three

new airport projects

 

KUCHING: The Sarawak government is expected to fund three new airport projects

costing more than RM780mil (Read the whole story https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/11/18/sarawak-govt-expected-to-fund-three-new-airport-projects

LOTS OF DEVELOPMENT YET FUTURE ARE MODERNISING OF BRUNEI & THE SHIFTING OF ENTIRE INDONESIA CAPITAL FROM JAKARTA TO NEAR BY KALIMANTAN WILL SPUR CEMENT EXPORT FROM CMSB

THE 12MP CASH ALLOCATION FOR SAWARAK IS 2ND HIGHEST AT RM4 BILLIONS AND HIGHEST IS SABAH WITH RM5 BILLIONS CASH (THIS WILL SPUR DEMAND FOR CMSB)

SARAWAK CIVIL SERVANTS ALSO GET 2 MONTHS SALARY BONUS (MOST ONLY 1 MONTH OR LESS)

 

7) SEEING VERY BRIGHT FUTURE FOR CMSB INSIDERS ARE NOW LOADING UP CMSB SHARES

See

Savvy Shareholders also loading up

At Rm2.36 now Calvin has a target price for CMSB at Rm4.70 (about 100% upside)

See in One Year's time CMSB will be another Lafarge chun chun buy call with 100% upside at its recent peak

 

Kindest Regards

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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calvintaneng Okok

When Calvin called for a buy on Naim at 52.5 sen qqq opposed because he said Naim holding Dayang will have impairment from perdana

In spite of the impediment Naim powered up

For Cmsb the future is as bright as Naim
22/11/2019 10:01 AM
fangyew thank you Calvin , very good !
22/11/2019 11:40 AM
calvintaneng Thks fangyew

Cmsb so undervalue just like daiman (daimond) taken private later
22/11/2019 11:55 AM


 

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