mokluhanj21's Profile - Comments

mokluhanj21

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	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD May 18, 2022 11:20 AM \| Report Abuse @titanium yes conceptually plantation should be able to hedge against inflation. however, be cautious on each company's size of hedging of forward contracts (ie lock yesterday's price for tomorrow's selling price) i got in one company for the macro but the mgmt screwed up by overhedging. in this buoyant market, naked price is syiok .

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD May 17, 2022 1:19 PM \| Report Abuse People need to stop punting and start calculating the FCF from this company. When the market starts seeing this, even the analysts will be surprised.

	Stock: [BJFOOD]: BERJAYA FOOD BHD May 12, 2022 8:26 AM \| Report Abuse Wow. FCF increased by 19% qoq.

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD May 10, 2022 3:30 PM \| Report Abuse i still can't brain the daily violent gyrations. it's as if the only thing that matters for this counter is the price of oil, when in truth, they have new cash streams from a mature asset recently acquired, not reflected in prior quarters. interesting to see the numbers of the coming quarters. risk: unbridled spike to MGS10yr (rfr) but it's anyone's guess really. will the Fed allow US10yr to spike to 4%? that's a death blow to the global economy really.

	Stock: [BJFOOD]: BERJAYA FOOD BHD May 10, 2022 3:25 PM \| Report Abuse @observatory @ zhangzhuode @dragon are you guys seeing what's happening to the Risk Free Rate/ Discount Rate? my dreaded alternate future is coming true. While I am positive on the earnings & cashflow growth, I am very scared with the discount rates spiking like mad What are your thoughts? any severe negative impacts on your model & valuation? hate this weh. :(

	Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD May 9, 2022 10:27 PM \| Report Abuse shit la weh. when is this gonna stop? this tape is broken real bad man. this counter has lost 80% of value weh from its ATH. will it lose another 80%? damn... broke weh. haha.

	Stock: [UTDPLT]: UNITED PLANTATION BERHAD May 1, 2022 2:02 AM \| Report Abuse wow. RM7k again the price of CPO....crazy world!

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 30, 2022 12:50 PM \| Report Abuse if Dr Ken wants to shock the market, given the juicy amount of Cashflow, he may as well just declare some special dividends . (if i were the Mgmt, i would do that haha- sadly, my company i work at barely surviving and free cash flow is all just rainbows and unicorns. lol)

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 29, 2022 10:57 AM \| Report Abuse It's a joke. The whole world and their central banks and mainstream WS banks try to give a bad story of the world economy but oil could barely stay below 100 for 1 day. You see what's happening?

	Stock: [BJFOOD]: BERJAYA FOOD BHD Apr 25, 2022 1:44 PM \| Report Abuse can't wait to see the Q1 CY22 results.

	Stock: [UTDPLT]: UNITED PLANTATION BERHAD Apr 25, 2022 1:14 PM \| Report Abuse thanks Indonesia for banning exports! :) Love u Jokowi

	Stock: [UTDPLT]: UNITED PLANTATION BERHAD Apr 25, 2022 12:50 AM \| Report Abuse Indonesia band exports. This is crazy. But good for us holders of UTDP. Msian CPO will now be selling like hot pisang goreng. https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1517949794320322560?t=KLCnQVGluTwqDOrF3SAVRQ&s=19

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 22, 2022 1:08 PM \| Report Abuse I think the business side of the equation for Hibby is great. But I am concerned of the emergent massive volatility in the financial markets-potential risks. 1. Spike in USDMYR ER may prove a boon to Hibby in short to med term. (But let's hope the flow out from Asia back to US won't impact too much - capital markets transmission) [*NB highest was 4.4567 in Dec 2016/USD.] 2. Our Risk Free Rate 10Y MGS (opportunity cost & DCF discount rate/WACC) has also jumped to 4.2% (2008: 4.8%). When the denominator jumps, the numerator has to keep up or outpace to maintain lofty valuation. 3. Nonetheless, I have a feeling that behavioral finance factors will push capital to safer plays and commodities will do well (vs others more exposed to cost pressures without ability to defend margins). Esp after taking into account real yields. If our actual inflation (vs official inflation) is more than 8%, even 5% Rfr means nothing. No place is safe today. God speed we will see more upside from here. Thanks fellow investors for your rich perspectives. (no thanks to the punters. You guys make Bursa noisy and lousy)

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 21, 2022 12:20 PM \| Report Abuse i just hope Dr Ken can keep to very strong capital allocation discipline as he has shown throughout the years. Sapura is a lot of BS. Avoid it like a plague. if wanna capex, focus on boring stable assets, and buy at a steep discount. also, if he is serious about shocking the market, he should pay out 50% of FCF in dividend next 12 months (can be one-off but will definitely excite market and make all the big Funds drool)

	Stock: [JAG]: JAG BHD Apr 18, 2022 1:17 PM \| Report Abuse if you compare the price of gold vs copper, it seems that copper is about the same % increase with gold. but now gold & PM stocks (e.g. Newmont etc) have gone up gao2.. this could be the last moment to load up on JAG, a proxy play to the copper trade in Malaysia. we are now in a quiet bull regime (per MacroOps).. things should look better going forward if the price of copper can sustain within this band

	Stock: [BJFOOD]: BERJAYA FOOD BHD Apr 18, 2022 5:47 AM \| Report Abuse Have u seen the outlets? The one at Klcc area like Zouk at 11pm on weekend. Kindly share how your local outlets are doing so we can have a feel of "now-casting" to gauge coming performance. Thanks

	Stock: [UTDPLT]: UNITED PLANTATION BERHAD Apr 12, 2022 3:31 PM \| Report Abuse Avg CPO volume per month: 21.1 MT Avg PKO volume per month: 4.3 MT Avg Coconut sold per month: 7.25 mil pieces Forecast Rev FY22 (cyclical considered): RM2.264b PBT: RM174.5mil PAT: RM416 mil at PE Ratios: 13x: TP RM18.4; @ 14x: RM19.8, @ 15x: RM21.2 Just back of the envelope calc. Honestly difficult to forecast actual volume, but some confidence interval required.. not investment advice, do your ownd due d

	Stock: [BJFOOD]: BERJAYA FOOD BHD Apr 12, 2022 2:19 PM \| Report Abuse based on the BFM Breakfast Grille interview, Datuk CEO is quite confident that BJF would be able to exceed market expectations of FY PATMI of RM80 mil. My lazy back of the envelope calc Q1: 11.63 Q2: 38.88 Q3: 35 to 40? Q4: 35 to 40? FY: 120 to 130 mil Current PE ratio: 18x [Discount and use 16x] Tgt mcap: RM1920mil to RM2080mil Tgt share price: RM4.9 to RM5.3 Upside from price now: a further 35% to 46% Seems a bit high, maybe can use 15x PE ratio and discount 10% earnings: [Adjusted /conservative] FY PATMI: RM108 mil to RM117 PE: 15x EPS: RM0.27 to RM0.30 TP: RM 4.05 to RM4.50 This is not investment advice, only sharing of notes. Do your own due diligence please. Thank you

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 12, 2022 2:01 PM \| Report Abuse as always, @twynstar offers very detailed insights for the value investors out here. sadly, too many punters who don't even know how to use excel on this forum and their only cue for buy & sales is daily moves in oil price. sad :(

	Stock: [BJFOOD]: BERJAYA FOOD BHD Apr 12, 2022 1:12 PM \| Report Abuse any of you been to starbucks recently? this bulan puasa, it's crazy weh the queue esp weekend evenings. q sampai road side the one at Avenue K. i went to buy coffee, so stressed too many people like this is some MRDIY ..but then again i remember I am a shareholder so I smile and just leave..please please buy :P

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 5, 2022 10:14 AM \| Report Abuse @izoklse ahaha i think yes some institutionals would buy but PNB? low blow bro haha. kesian PNB team kena billion in impairment from Sapura, as well as loss transmission via Maybank and CIMB (which PNB is a major/ significant holder) haha

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Apr 4, 2022 2:44 PM \| Report Abuse Great close to 1st quarter average prices of brent: Jan: $84bbl,Feb:$94bbl, Mar:$103bbl With the new Repsol+ can't wait to see if the profits are per some of the calculations/ forecast here. Would be very interesting

	Stock: [POHKONG]: POH KONG HOLDINGS BHD Apr 2, 2022 2:48 PM \| Report Abuse Newmont and the likes are recording ATH as I write. The financialised economy of the West is crumbling, beginning with the long due unravelling of the PetroDollar. But PohKong seems asleep. One simple trick if the Chairman/ Shareholder wants to become rich overnight is to declare a surprise windfall dividend. Well he can issue options today at today's price, then declare dividends maybe one of close to 70% of EPS, then exercise those options and unrealised profit boom. :P

	Stock: [JFTECH]: JF TECHNOLOGY BHD Apr 1, 2022 6:39 PM \| Report Abuse @new_investor92 still tracking here .. but gotta remain very sabar for this one cos tech is currently being butchered. I think might retest 90 sen or lower before any upside

	Stock: [TENAGA]: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD Apr 1, 2022 6:34 PM \| Report Abuse tenaga has now been in a bear market for 1,460 days, that is 4 years. wow. amazing market action suppressed by EPF constant selling.

	Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD Apr 1, 2022 6:31 PM \| Report Abuse 615 days TopGlove already been in bear market. interesting. what happens when next global recession? going to 20 sen or spike to 6 ringgek

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 31, 2022 9:21 AM \| Report Abuse OMG! oil price is falling fast to USD100bbl. This is bad! I'm scared :( I think Hibiscus will go below RM1.00 soon aiyo. (Please bring share price down cos I am skek and need you all to sell faster.SELL SELL SELL.......................................) :P

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 29, 2022 12:52 PM \| Report Abuse What is a target range for all these bears for Brent? 70?

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 25, 2022 12:24 PM \| Report Abuse @twynstar thanks for the update. Also looking out to our domestic economy, I have a good feeling that the Federal bugdet particularly the performance of Petronas will more likely trend on the upside. I am also optimistic of our exchange rate. Let's keep a close watch on this space!

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 25, 2022 12:08 PM \| Report Abuse most of the traders on Bursa are very short term as they are only excited by the spike in levels of Brent price. the actual profit is driven by quarterly average price, not 1 or 2 days price of Brent bbl. so if Brent has a stable price range, the impact is better than spikes down and up. Also, Repsol's addition of barrels (9k plus per day) isn't properly factored in. Would be interesting to see what the stable volume of barrels & price will be for March. Should help to provide better clarity going fwd.

	Stock: [POHKONG]: POH KONG HOLDINGS BHD Mar 24, 2022 10:57 PM \| Report Abuse BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!! come lets go kopi! :P

	Stock: [PMETAL]: PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BHD Mar 21, 2022 11:16 PM \| Report Abuse Wow Australia just banned export of alumina. Great set up! Boom boom!

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 21, 2022 6:02 PM \| Report Abuse also, i wanted to add that there are 2 currents supporting outperformance of Hibby going fwd: 1. a stable average Brent price bbl around 90 to 100 per quarter 2. arguably more importantly: the increase in no of barrels produced by Hibby with Repsol and potential new acqn Also, I have not seen any Management on Bursa disclosing to the public such a stringent acqusition IRR of 12% or more if not mistaken (per their Circular)- execution remains to be seen, but stating it means you're committing to it. (So many GLCs on Bursa are so useless, chickens when it comes to real performance!) So kudos on this. But yes, watch out for risks as well.

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 21, 2022 3:34 PM \| Report Abuse @zhangzuode thanks for highlighting that all the remaining CRPS have been converted! my bad I thought there are still some balance left. apparently 24Feb22 mandatory conversion. (Should be better news to my model haha :)) also wow! @zhangzuode 's FCF for 2023 is RM677 mil. giving an FCF yield of 28% whoa :P BTW thanks guys for the great analysis! nothing beats having smart, diligent co-investors to learn from and share notes with this goes to @twynstar too!

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 20, 2022 4:45 PM \| Report Abuse @twynstar thanks for the great analysis with some detailed disclosure on assumptions My assumptions are about the same as yours. However, I would like to just share a perspective that all investors/ shareholders to always exercise scenarios in their models to ensure you have some level of probabilistic approach towards your valuation in my case, I have created scenarios with several assumptions on: 1. avg realised price of Brent bbl per quarter 2. potential costs of finance on the CRPS (around 4% per annum) 3. potential rise in SGA costs Granted, I do not do much in terms of discount rate (not DCF for Hibiscus) but yes investing in an uncertain macro-inflationary environment can have some risk aspects on this. (Spike in discount factors, WACC) But I still think markets today are even more susceptible to behavioral biases. Investors are struggling for yield and some form of returns to fight inflation, so quality names with good macro tail wind should help Hibby (esp as its financial risk is relatively low vs for example Sapura, which is screwed at this juncture- Not even PNB or Datuk Anuar can do much with so much in Sapura's closet!)

	Stock: [AXREIT]: AXIS REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST Mar 16, 2022 3:08 PM \| Report Abuse sometimes, i feel so terrol and master at trading and investing like Ray Dalio cos I read a lot but then when the macro wind change, i cry and forget i am terrol this game is a game of emotions counters like axis (boring, steady, slow but certain due to great focus, execution) are what we need to build long term value creation. boring is good :)

	Stock: [TENAGA]: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD Mar 16, 2022 2:07 PM \| Report Abuse When TNB wanna break below support RM8.7? last time was 7 years ago. 2015 Sept. cmon give young people chance also to buy at decade low please uncker2 and auntie2!

	Stock: [UTDPLT]: UNITED PLANTATION BERHAD Mar 9, 2022 5:01 PM \| Report Abuse walaweh. CPO naik almost 12% ady at closing EOB today. go go go!

	Stock: [UTDPLT]: UNITED PLANTATION BERHAD Mar 9, 2022 3:18 PM \| Report Abuse weh weh what happened palm oil spiked 9% in morning trade session?????????????? WHYYYYYYYYYYY

	Stock: [JFTECH]: JF TECHNOLOGY BHD Mar 9, 2022 12:52 PM \| Report Abuse this company will get squeezed. with crippling costs of raw materials, spiralling inflationary pressures and stagflation in global economy, who wanna buy weh? may have to wait many many years before it can deliver great cashflow (also capex huge recently die standing la depreciation in bad economy)

	Stock: [TENAGA]: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD Mar 9, 2022 12:40 PM \| Report Abuse @mywb you insider trading issit. wait ah wanna call Sec Commission. eh lupa they dont care BAHAHAHAHA! anyway, waiting for dvd to come in to buy more. this one my pencen plan. slow2 ony haha :P

	Stock: [TENAGA]: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD Mar 9, 2022 12:36 PM \| Report Abuse @mywb you insider trading issit. wait ah wanna call Sec Commission. eh lupa they dont care BAHAHAHAHA!

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 9, 2022 12:19 PM \| Report Abuse Sorry got excited haha heres the link fellas : https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-set-to-ban-commodity-exports-following-western-sanctions-11646768260 https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75965/ https://seekingalpha.com/news/3810771-putin-signs-decree-to-restrict-imports-and-exports-until-year-end

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 9, 2022 9:41 AM \| Report Abuse Walaweh. Putin just banned export of ALL raw materials from Russia to be effective until Dec 31 walaweh. this is full blown war! Rocket goes to the MOOOOOOOOOOOON HODL

	Stock: [POHKONG]: POH KONG HOLDINGS BHD Mar 8, 2022 9:24 PM \| Report Abuse AIYO GOLD 2020. WALAWEH :p

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 8, 2022 9:05 PM \| Report Abuse well well. nak melabur jangan malas. not all companies are created equal. Look at the risks- financial risk esp for capital intensive stocks. dont sound lazy / dumb by painting every stocks within a sector with broad brush. This is not kindergarten. or a gossip tabloid. The least you could do is go on the P&L, BS and CF statements. Look before you jump. Which counters are quality investments, which are ciggy butts. Anyways, have a great time in the markets :P

	Stock: [JAG]: JAG BHD Mar 7, 2022 2:25 PM \| Report Abuse oooppps ada orang tido. Malaysian market wake up!!! Wake up!! Copper price shot up 12% since 1 March wehhhh :P JAG here we go dahling leng lui

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 7, 2022 1:32 PM \| Report Abuse dont fight it people. also dont act smart la. Buffet also still holding on to Occidental. This is narrative economics. and this is how its going to unravel: 1. Oct 21: gao2 shoot to 94.5 sen due to the Great Global Reopening sentiment 2. Oct- Dec 21: fear of a Hawkish Fed 3. Jan 22: Supply & inventory not keeping up with demand- shoot 4. Feb 22: European war 5. Now: all thinking it is too high...but it is only too high when people are starting to be irrationally fearful for now, as price goes higher (and everything else is a falling knife), there really is not safe place for trillions of dollars. Oil is the few safe space , with commodities This spike may be extended further anyway, keep watching insider moves: http://openinsider.com/ Good luck everyone!

	Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD Mar 7, 2022 7:29 AM \| Report Abuse Crazy. Brent already at 129 dollars. Buy buy buy ???

	Stock: [BURSA]: BURSA MALAYSIA BHD Mar 3, 2022 5:28 PM \| Report Abuse Bursa about to turn up due to heavy commodities nature of our economy. Wait for it people.

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