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32 comment(s). Last comment by paperplane at Mar 22, 2016 12:29 PM
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股海無涯
226 posts

Posted by 股海無涯 > Mar 15, 2016 12:34 PM | Report Abuse

MAA is cash cow, the problem always lie on Oversea affliate(TAA, AAI, PAA, IAA), Thailand stable and become another cashcow, if AAI, PAA, IAA, and new Japan AA stop Bleeding, the Cashflow(and Profit) will 10x more strong then now under low fuel price.


goreng_goreng
302 posts

Posted by goreng_goreng > Mar 15, 2016 12:35 PM | Report Abuse

geng woooooo


supersaiyan3
1910 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Mar 15, 2016 12:35 PM | Report Abuse

Great work icon8888!

However, it is Profit growth that matters rather than Revenue growth.


supersaiyan3
1910 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Mar 15, 2016 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett suggests (for capital intensive industry) to adjust net profit figure by add back depreciation and subtract capital expenditure, the numbers will look really ugly if you do that, i think.


soros228
1544 posts

Posted by soros228 > Mar 15, 2016 1:28 PM | Report Abuse

Well said.


r°Moi
5809 posts

Posted by r°Moi > Mar 15, 2016 1:29 PM | Report Abuse

Going quite far back..... so.. see any gaming the associates.. previously??


r°Moi
5809 posts

Posted by r°Moi > Mar 15, 2016 1:32 PM | Report Abuse

The speed you are at top 3.... everybody is in AirAsia... everybody


Jonathan Keung
1822 posts

Posted by Jonathan Keung > Mar 15, 2016 4:16 PM | Report Abuse

airlines was facing intense competition & high fuel costs. the game changer was introduction of low cost fares structure ( pioneer by virgin air ) and copied by AA. to address the high fuel charges ( eg sky rocking crude prices ). Majority of airlines now pass on the fuel excess surcharge to passengers. AA did one better - passengers also charge for meal, drinks and even faster check in.

AA model was further improvise by Tony FErnandez and make the model super efficient compared to MAS. Using AA models ( Tony Fernandez ) spread the wings to all regional centres using the lease and JV structures. The head hong cho knows traffic connectivity is important and volume is the name of the game.

Icon did a good job on the AA operating analysis fare structure. It may not be 100% perfect but it need time and good anaytical skill. Whatever is it ( without sounding crony ) those reading this blog must have some vested interest in AA or AAX.

The only drag on AA was their overseas JV in Vietnam, Indonesia. THailand is going geat and in fact the second biggest contributor, With the new routes to Chiang Mai and Hathyai coming April. AA Thailand will be even better. Last year the USD rallied against most Asian currciences resulting in forex losses.

Hopefully, this year we have seen the peak in the USD strenght. The reverse will benefit all the regional curriences (i.e. if they strenghten against the USD ) Forex gains will be substantial. this is my personal take on AA. Happy trading


probability
9902 posts

Posted by probability > Mar 15, 2016 7:58 PM | Report Abuse

When the Crude price dips...RM weakens.
But the effective fuel cost in RM is still cheaper...

so don't worry about the short terms effects of Forex - only think of the long term implication of Fuel price.


JN88
9305 posts

Posted by JN88 > Mar 15, 2016 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

No other air line can compete with Tony, he start from nothing ! He refinance his house...and start his dream .cost =0.


tkp2
3126 posts

Posted by tkp2 > Mar 15, 2016 8:10 PM | Report Abuse

now still not too late to sailang.

i seldom see Icon call for "screaming buy", i continue to average up everyday.


tkp2
3126 posts

Posted by tkp2 > Mar 15, 2016 8:11 PM | Report Abuse

this year play AA can survive already as a full time trader. :)


Ricky Kiat
1058 posts

Posted by Ricky Kiat > Mar 15, 2016 9:22 PM | Report Abuse

great work , sifu icon888, i join the plane already. fly together. cheers...


HYBRIC8888
1314 posts

Posted by HYBRIC8888 > Mar 16, 2016 12:11 AM | Report Abuse

Tony sell his car, sell his house, and sailang follow icon.


Blacksails
586 posts

Posted by Blacksails > Mar 16, 2016 12:34 AM | Report Abuse

I'm not giving up my pride! I'll never going to give up my pride. This is me. AA


paperplane
18006 posts

Posted by paperplane > Mar 16, 2016 2:45 AM | Report Abuse

Icon is too late at his call. When it traded last yr ending, u shld have picked it.
You let your ego takeover your logic instead.
But overall some assumption can be danger. What if fuel cost goes up again. What if mas turnaround and be in competition again, they had to cut price again. And Indonesia is the biggest mkt now, must tackle


paperplane
18006 posts

Posted by paperplane > Mar 16, 2016 2:46 AM | Report Abuse

Unless they can succeed in Indonesia, else no way I see it can grow strongly. 2bil ppl, imagine 10% only travel using aa. Tht is super mkt, must tackle


Ryan Chong
1603 posts

Posted by Ryan Chong > Mar 16, 2016 9:42 AM | Report Abuse

why everyone like to see the last quarter and tells story, if that is so good ? why everyone dont buy on 0.8 that time? everytime i see air asia story i feel so funny, it is like wave, everyone tells how good it is how good it is, in the end drop like shit, like last time aax 0.75, people say how good it is, in the end drop until 0.2 , what now? want to goreng again and drop further? tony does not change the nature of business, does not change the operation , if a company does not make the changes , everything is still same, the improved quarter report does not give the people who does not willing to make a changes. the air asia is like passive mode, what i see is only all crazy people buy only


supersaiyan3
1910 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Mar 16, 2016 10:08 AM | Report Abuse

Ryan, not crazy people, but small people.

When Tony was on the roadshow selling AAX IPO, he told us Airasia was worth RM6. "AAX should follow growth trajectory of Airasia." And then we all see huge losses after AAX listed.

3 weeks ago i was quite excited when the QR released. But after i read what icon did, look through the numbers, i changed my mind. Warren Buffett is right! It is a zero sum game, the economics of airlines fit what Warren predicts (let's say it is monopolistic competition).

You take away the unusual amount recovered, PAT is -200m.

IAA is in bigger mess when oil price is low, whatif their competitors cut prices even more, IAA is a prey (and all other loss making associates).

Goreng goreng ok lah, don't sailang.


Ktesen Kean Teong Ng
54 posts

Posted by Ktesen Kean Teong Ng > Mar 16, 2016 10:45 AM | Report Abuse

Not very good sign today, failed to stand above 1.80. See how later.


HYBRIC8888
1314 posts

Posted by HYBRIC8888 > Mar 16, 2016 11:19 AM | Report Abuse

after ICON8888 post, I sailang AA share, thank you ICON8888, now I can buy new car, new house and spend AA money


moneySIFU
5471 posts

Posted by moneySIFU > Mar 16, 2016 6:50 PM | Report Abuse

007, how much you bought? So fast can buy so many things aledi? Just up few cents & you start celebrate aledi?

If you have so much money as what you said, you won't feel so extremely excited like this.


probability
9902 posts

Posted by probability > Mar 16, 2016 7:01 PM | Report Abuse

may bought with 1.62 Million and sold at 1.81 Million..
150K house & 50K car?
hmm...agreed..not so attractive for a millionaire


3EMWE
108 posts

Posted by 3EMWE > Mar 17, 2016 1:25 AM | Report Abuse

maintain overweight


stockmanmy
6962 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Mar 17, 2016 2:10 AM | Report Abuse

Buy or sell is a choice.

But there is no way a blogger can run an airline. Even PW partner would be lost if asked to do it.


HYBRIC8888
1314 posts

Posted by HYBRIC8888 > Mar 17, 2016 10:05 AM | Report Abuse

moneySIFU, I'm a timid person, AA is a big risk counter to me. I had sleepless night last few months due to my own decision. ICON8888 come to my rescue. I will go back to bank and palm oil again


hng33
15619 posts

Posted by hng33 > Mar 21, 2016 5:51 PM | Report Abuse

Icon

You have rightly point and clearly state airasia topline consistent growth, and with lowering now oil cost will direct impact on airasia bottom line significantly. I have bought many today at 1.74, expect it will regain momentum to break 1.80 decisively, paving toward 2.00 soon

In additional, if you have time, kindly also figure out the fair value for awc.......many contract secure and concession agreement + net cash position+ eps growth. Thanks


Icon8888
16814 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 21, 2016 6:10 PM | Report Abuse

wish u make lots of money from AA

Will take a look at AWC when free


hng33
15619 posts

Posted by hng33 > Mar 21, 2016 7:54 PM | Report Abuse

Icon,

How likely AA will pay dividend next month? Will it more than 3 sen judging for improving prospect


Icon8888
16814 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Mar 21, 2016 8:12 PM | Report Abuse

ha ha sorry, I don't have the answer.


hng33
15619 posts

Posted by hng33 > Mar 21, 2016 8:29 PM | Report Abuse

No problem, AA is growth stock, even with dividend yield at low side 2%, fair valuation PE should above 10x.


paperplane
18006 posts

Posted by paperplane > Mar 22, 2016 12:29 PM | Report Abuse

hmmmmmmmmm, now only chase?

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