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156 comment(s). Last comment by stockmanmy at Dec 22, 2016 04:26 PM
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Whey Whey
1814 posts

Posted by Whey Whey > Dec 18, 2016 06:39 AM | Report Abuse

Yes it work when the company show growing profit you buy more and chase high so that KYY can sell to you. When the company showed decreased profit you sell like no tomorrow so that KYY can buy cheap.


soojinhou
735 posts

Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 07:18 AM | Report Abuse

My cnmc goldmine posted increasing profits for 8 consecutive quarters, but share price went down instead of up, just because it is related to a maligned sector, gold mining. Maybe golden rule applies only to kyy stocks coz he has the financial capacity to push up his recommendations to make his rule work. If that's the case, what's there to boast?


CharlesT
5487 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Dec 18, 2016 08:08 AM | Report Abuse

Money power....or goreng power...


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 09:22 AM | Report Abuse

KC, soojinhou, CharlesT and many others, you all are my friends.... but sorry guys, Golden Rule works... This is based on real life experience, not theory.

In the article, KC seemed to based his observation on y-o-y EPS changes. The Golden Rule works for Q-o-Q

If a stock's current quarter EPS is higher than previous Q, its price will move up, most of the time (I would say more than 90% chance).

But you guys don't have to agree with me. Use whatever method that suits you.

Anyway, as per my earlier article, my observation of KC is that deep in his heart, he is also an earning guy, despite what he said about cash-flow, EV, etc. In that respect, there is really not much difference between KC and I.

Ha ha sorry KC, I shove thing down your throat.


blackspy
60 posts

Posted by blackspy > Dec 18, 2016 09:33 AM | Report Abuse

No doubt. KYY is excellent to promote share for his own good. There is no teaching at all.


newbie_Investor
216 posts

Posted by newbie_Investor > Dec 18, 2016 09:45 AM | Report Abuse

@KC
Magni vs prlexus, which one do you prefer and why? Thanks!


silom
196 posts

Posted by silom > Dec 18, 2016 09:59 AM | Report Abuse

think both magic formula and golden rule can work as proven by the veteran here, both have something in common, the company must make profit, it is unfortunate for those bought at wrong price.


einvest88
345 posts

Posted by einvest88 > Dec 18, 2016 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

What golden rule....all really depend a lot on klci...if klci in major fast fall like 4th q 2014 and 2nd q 2015...whatever profit result also go to holland...if bad result then down more and gd result still down but at lesser degree. If happen that klci on rebound where result is announced then high chance that stock will rebound. No matter what if a stock is already in long term downtreand,no matter what long run will still go down like what happen to klci now. FA works well in uptrend but not downtrend. That why FA forever has the weakness of enter and exit late. That why FA long run always give average 15-20% return. The biggest advantage of FA it gives u confirm signal b4 u act. On risk mgt it is gd. U act only when signal is clear and confirm. This is critical when u invt portfolio is huge.


soojinhou
735 posts

Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, it works if the growth in earnings is beyond market expectation. If growth is lower than market expectation, share price might actually decline.


sostupid
331 posts

Posted by sostupid > Dec 18, 2016 10:08 AM | Report Abuse

Your strenth is your weakness and your weakness is actually your strength, you need to know your strength and make that strength into your weakness so that you can have use your old weakness to produce new strength.

you want new strength and not old ones as you grow old.


sostupid
331 posts

Posted by sostupid > Dec 18, 2016 10:10 AM | Report Abuse

You need to get other people to help you and not get yourself to help other people mah. Your direction is in opposite direction. How can you produce new strength with old strength as you are getting older.


sostupid
331 posts

Posted by sostupid > Dec 18, 2016 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

Turn lectures into something more amusing would enthused people lecturing don't induced customers. Keep lecturing to classroom environment.


VenFx
9701 posts

Posted by VenFx > Dec 18, 2016 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

Eg the next highly possible to above mentioned criteria by icon8888 bro :)


shareinvestor88
829 posts

Posted by shareinvestor88 > Dec 18, 2016 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

Gold shares are coming down as i see it in ASX. Despite good profit. I suspect the share price reacts faster to gold price rather that profit 1st.


soojinhou
735 posts

Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 10:14 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, oh definitely not as simplistic as that, and definitely not as simplistic as the "golden rule" from trumpet blowing old man. That's why I like to make fun of his "golden rule". But of course, most of the time it works for me also, no one can resist the allure of a fast growing company. But even I I wouldn't dare to blow trumpet and call it my golden rule like it's some kinda Shaolin secret ya know.


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:16 AM | Report Abuse

yes, I think investors are looking ahead to see weaker earnings in coming quarters. That is why they sell down despite existing strong earning

In my previous comment, I disagree with soojinhou that weaker earning growth will lead to price decline, instead, I argue that even with flat growth, price will not only NOT decline, it might continue to go up

However, I do believe that earning decline will result in share price decline (as pointed out by shareinvestor88)

========================

Posted by shareinvestor88 > Dec 18, 2016 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

Gold shares are coming down as i see it in ASX. Despite good profit. I suspect the share price reacts faster to gold price rather that profit 1st.


CharlesT
5487 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Dec 18, 2016 10:18 AM | Report Abuse

My golden rules....when koon asks to buy U sell,when koon asks to sell U buy....the winning rate is higher than monkey n most stock analysts


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:29 AM | Report Abuse

in my case, I totally ignore his various calls.

He has got the "Golden Rule" correct, but he himself is a very poor practitioner of it.

The Golden Rule works if you are able to predict next few quarters EPS as accurate as possible (nobody guarantee you can get them right, but it is at least an educated bet. Better than buying lottery). However, he didn't do that at all. Instead, he goes on helicopter rides, etc. Now even worse, he is branching out to "buying up trending stocks", "business sense", etc... all kind of nonsenses that will only introduce more chaos and unpredictability to his own portfolio .

I have written about this before - the Golden Rule is correct, but the devil is in the details. If you cannot get the details right, you cannot get the Golden Rule to work

Posted by CharlesT > Dec 18, 2016 10:18 AM | Report Abuse

My golden rules....when koon asks to buy U sell,when koon asks to sell U buy....the winning rate is higher than monkey n most stock analysts


soojinhou
735 posts

Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 10:31 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, I wasn't talking about recent slide in gold price and recent price movement of CNMC. I was referring to the period 2014-15 when CNMC was ramping up production and nobody bothered despite magnificent FCF and PE as low as 5. Gold had stabalized at around 1100, but there were a bunch of dumb technical analysts calling for 800 despite average global production cost at 1200. Anyway, CNMC was left to rot below 20 cents for prolonged periods. I stayed patient and enjoyed the market rerating to 60 cents when catalyst came along and suddenly everyone sing praises like as if CNMC was just listed yesterday. My point is precisely yours, things are not as simplistic as "golden rule" in the share market


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:35 AM | Report Abuse

ok got it... I don't really understand the CNMC case so I better don't say so much. soojinhou is not KYY or sostupid. Most of the time, soojinhou knows what he is talking about. LIKE

Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 10:31 AM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, I wasn't talking about recent slide in gold price and recent price movement of CNMC. I was referring to the period 2014-15 when CNMC was ramping up production and nobody bothered despite magnificent FCF and PE as low as 5. Gold had stabalized at around 1100, but there were a bunch of dumb technical analysts calling for 800 despite average global production cost at 1200. Anyway, CNMC was left to rot below 20 cents for prolonged periods. I stayed patient and enjoyed the market rerating to 60 cents when catalyst came along and suddenly everyone sing praises like as if CNMC was just listed yesterday. My point is precisely yours, things are not as simplistic as "golden rule" in the share market


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

KYY recently has turned very scary. First, he asked people to buy gadang, after that, he asked people to sell, causing the price to plunge. Yesterday, he revealed that he bought back at 88 sen.

wow.... I am speechless....


Up_down
3170 posts

Posted by Up_down > Dec 18, 2016 10:45 AM | Report Abuse

Icon is not know the tricky part but have gone through the hardwork in applying the golden rules.

I like this statement:
" I have written about this before - the Golden Rule is correct, but the devil is in the details. If you cannot get the details right, you cannot get the Golden Rule to work . "


soojinhou
735 posts

Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 10:47 AM | Report Abuse

He's a businessman in stock market. He will do whatever it takes to maximize profit. That includes breaking disclosure rules and lie through his teeth to influence share price. He doesn't have any ethics when it comes to profit.


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

100% agree with soojinhou on that... only sochais think that he is "teaching them how to fish"

he is treating this as a business... he is secretly laughing at his other Datuk and Tan Sri friends.... "you sochais work your ass off, run around like headless chickens trying to make money... I can do that by just sitting in front of computer". I can almost imagine the smug on his face


Benjamin_8888
403 posts

Posted by Benjamin_8888 > Dec 18, 2016 11:20 AM | Report Abuse

KY is a big shark


Apollo Ang
3186 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > Dec 18, 2016 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

doesn't apply in msia. in bursa profit down by over 50% like topglove also can up.it's up to them wanna push or wanna dump


Apollo Ang
3186 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > Dec 18, 2016 11:25 AM | Report Abuse

in fact topglove should be less than 4.50 now


3iii
3846 posts

Posted by 3iii > Dec 18, 2016 11:45 AM | Report Abuse

KYY golden rule for stock selection: Before you buy any share, you must make sure that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year by looking at its profit for the last 2 quarters and the projected P/E ratio is less than 10. If it has very good profit growth prospect, you may buy it at higher P/E ratio.


Icon8888
14947 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

the trick is to get future EPS right (but beware of buying growth through gearing lah, as what KC always cautions)

once you get it right, the money will roll in like crazy...


3iii
3846 posts

Posted by 3iii > Dec 18, 2016 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

<<< before you buy a share, make sure that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year >>>

How? How good are you in determining this? Business sense? Common sense?
Is the company growing its revenues?
Is the company maintaining or increasing its profit margins?
What are the factors favouring or against it, making a higher profit this year than last year?
Do you have all the information to make a good decision?
Who have all the information to make a good decision?
Do analysts get this right, though the managements share with them more than the average investors?
Are the information available reflecting the true business environment or are they selected to sway the investors in a certain way?


PlsGiveBonus
3749 posts

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > Dec 18, 2016 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

The golden rule is smart money
:)
This is always work
I don't want to heard anymore complaint because 70% vote for this


Valuation:
...................."New paradigm"!!!
....................Delusion....^.denial
.........................Greed..|.|...^.return to "normal"
.....................Public...../...\..|.|..Bull
.............Enthusiasm.../......V...\.....trap
..........Institutional...../.............\...Fear
.................Investors /................|
Smart money........./...................|....Capitulation
.First sell off........./.media...........\
Take.....____....../..attention.........|.Return to the
......Off/........\__/...........................|....../...mean
.....__/.........Bear............................\.../
__/...................Trap.........................V..Despair
___________________________________>Time
________^______^_____^________^
Stealth__|_Aware-|Mania|Blow_off____|
__Phase_|ness___|Phase|Phase______|
________|Phase__|_____|___________|


3iii
3846 posts

Posted by 3iii > Dec 18, 2016 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

<<by looking at its profits for the last 2 quarters>>


How honest are the managers? Earnings are easily manipulated as stated in the above article.

Let's take the investors for a ride. We are going to massage our earnings to grow consecutively for the next 6 quarters. Do you think this is possible?

Let's not book all our earnings for this quarter. Let us shift a bit to the next quarter. The next quarter will then show a rise in earnings. If you reported a super earning this quarter, the next quarterly earning will be smaller than this quarter and investors may not like it (especially those using the golden rule).

Let us show a better earnings this quarter. Let's shift the expenses to next year or the capital expenditure to next year. The earnings will show consistent growth for the next 6 quarters. The share price will rise accordingly.

Next year or later years, we can than take a 1 time big accounting charges and our books will be back to order.

Integrity of the management is paramount in my selection of the companies I wish to invest into.


PlsGiveBonus
3749 posts

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > Dec 18, 2016 12:05 PM | Report Abuse

Hevea was a good business until this robertl guy come out and destroy everything
Since that time it is vote by 70% to keep it inside the freezer
:)


3iii
3846 posts

Posted by 3iii > Dec 18, 2016 12:14 PM | Report Abuse

<<<If it has very good profit growth prospect, you may buy it at higher P/E ratio.>>>


Staying with projected P/E less than 10 doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I have profited greatly from many stocks with projected P/E > 10 over decades.

If you have the ability to seek out:

1. High quality companies with durable competitive advantage (ironically, these are companies that can grow their earnings over long periods).

2. Managers with integrity, who are hardworking and intelligent and whose interests are aligned with those of their shareholders.

3. Market prices of these high quality companies at time when they are available at fair or discounted prices,

you should do very well in your investing over the long term.

You will see your wealth compound over decades.

After years of investing, you will find your dividends and capital appreciations are so huge, your perception of the market is different.

You are the business owner of a few companies in your portfolio; these companies are managed by your selected managers whose capable hand and good business economic continue to reward you yearly and increasingly over time.

That is the true joy of investing.


Apollo Ang
3186 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > Dec 18, 2016 12:45 PM | Report Abuse

I agree with 3iii...accounts can be manipulated,contracts can be swifted.anyhow the insider cannot lose. example like KFM.they bought a particular stock,if they manage to sell off they deny taking over the stock. if they can't unload the stock they inject something to push it up so the retailers who always chase stocks will get stuck


Apollo Ang
3186 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > Dec 18, 2016 12:46 PM | Report Abuse

sc and bursa mata buta kah insider trading,cornering stock and manipulation allow in bursa is it?


Apollo Ang
3186 posts

Posted by Apollo Ang > Dec 18, 2016 12:51 PM | Report Abuse

low paid up capital stocks are being cornered like ajinomoto,dutch lady and BAT.ajinomoto earning down yet so expensive.only worth less than RM 8. so is dutch lady and BAT. dutch lady worth less than RM 30 same as BAT.dutch lady earning will down due to higher USD and BAT profit next quarter will down due to higher tax and many illegal cigarettes on the market.


stockmanmy
6876 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 01:36 PM | Report Abuse

Well...if you are the prevention focused people, those types satisfied by mutual fund returns, go do what KC teaches.

If you want the stock market to make a difference....better to develop your business sense, your sense of timing, take calculated risks, use margin accounts, and the golden rule for stock selections is a sound one ( with some personal tailoring to suit your own taste)....like I said, pivotal moments are the 1% time, you can make a difference...99% of a stock life, ask sifus also no use.

my lectures free one.



================================
KC...In my opinion, it is better to follow a well-established and proven investing strategies backed by academic research, well documented success, and plausible reasoning to build long-term wealth.


stockmanmy
6876 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 01:44 PM | Report Abuse

and I think successful investors and traders have to at least read the annual reports and the announcements and understand them. If you don't read the AR, it is difficult to buy enough to make real money.


stockmanmy
6876 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

every fund manager goes through the same training as KC does. But look at the mutual fund performances. You satisfied with those? What makes you think you are better than them in their game?

You want to out perform them, you got to play by a different set of rules....and the set of rules is the same set of rules used by all successful entrepreneurs....whether accountants or engineers or char gui teow man.


BINTANG
1067 posts

Posted by BINTANG > Dec 18, 2016 02:01 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

KYY recently has turned very scary. First, he asked people to buy gadang, after that, he asked people to sell, causing the price to plunge. Yesterday, he revealed that he bought back at 88 sen.


KYY is old already ....
he somethimes forget his golden rule
he knows he had made a mistake in gadang but shy to admit his own mistake. That is why he say " I have to decide when I should start selling to make profit" hoping he is not so wrong , still consistent in this doing


buybuybuy8
2 posts

Posted by buybuybuy8 > Dec 18, 2016 02:01 PM | Report Abuse

kc how much you charge for your course? im interested


NOBY
934 posts

Posted by NOBY > Dec 18, 2016 02:26 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 01:59 PM | Report Abuse

every fund manager goes through the same training as KC does. But look at the mutual fund performances. You satisfied with those? What makes you think you are better than them in their game?

You want to out perform them, you got to play by a different set of rules....and the set of rules is the same set of rules used by all successful entrepreneurs....whether accountants or engineers or char gui teow man.


I disagree with above statement. As retail investors we have many advantages over the mutual fund managers.
1. Mutual fund managers has to worry about short term performance. Investors of their funds chase short term performance, if they underperform for just 1 year, they will experience capital flight. As individual investor, I set the rules myself and can afford to take a long term view on my investments. This means I can truly practice buying low and selling high.
2. Because of their large funds, mutual fund's universe of stocks is much smaller than a retailer hence all of them are crowding around the same large cap stocks. As a retailer, I can invest in small undiscovered companies which are undervalued even if they are illiquid.
3. Mutual fund managers are appraised based on their fund performance against a certain benchmark. If KLCI drops 10%, they drop 9%, they are considered to outperform. Hence they will rather be closet indexers (meaning buying mostly the index stocks to protect their rice bowl. As individual investors, I am free from such constraint, my portfolio could be totally different from the index hence have a higher chance to outperform.


stockmanmy
6876 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 02:33 PM | Report Abuse

noby

I found nothing to disagree there.

know thy self is the number one rule for successful investing.


stockmanmy
6876 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 02:35 PM | Report Abuse

KYY critics underestimates KYY....that I can tell you.


eagle71
30 posts

Posted by eagle71 > Dec 18, 2016 02:41 PM | Report Abuse

Icon8888, that's why I said last weeks when KYY asked people to sell Gadang, he might has "hidden agenda". So his agenda was to press down Gadang's price so that he can get it cheaper. Although I somehow benefited (i bought cheap too) from his evil deed, I still despise what he has done.
He will use a portion of those money he won to donate, and tell the whole world his "kindness" and win praises from his followers. What a crooked old man he has been.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Icon8888 KYY recently has turned very scary. First, he asked people to buy gadang, after that, he asked people to sell, causing the price to plunge. Yesterday, he revealed that he bought back at 88 sen.

wow.... I am speechless....

18/12/2016 14:41


NOBY
934 posts

Posted by NOBY > Dec 18, 2016 02:45 PM | Report Abuse

stockmanmy I m disagreeing with your statement that applying KC's principles of investing will result in us retailers getting the same returns as the mutual funds. As retailers we fish in different and smaller ponds than the mutual funds, we dont have to compete with them. That was my point.


stockmanmy
6876 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 03:01 PM | Report Abuse

noby

12 formulas and 20 accounting ratos do not make one a better investors.

finally, it is still the man and his decisions.

people underestimates KYY.
I don't complicate things

I try to simplify things


BINTANG
1067 posts

Posted by BINTANG > Dec 18, 2016 03:29 PM | Report Abuse

noby

many do not interested or understand the true value of "buy low sell high"
not many huhuhaha... song to sing everyday

i use KC MF and had chosen Gadang as my target
bought low 2 years ago and sold 40% high.
the remaining 60% is now free +profit in the pocket with good potential of further growth


Han
5 posts

Posted by Han > Dec 18, 2016 04:07 PM | Report Abuse

Golden Rule = Buy stocks that highly potential to report increased core profit in coming quarters/year at price that has yet to priced in the expectation of EPS growth, with an absolute MOS. Sign of company making more profit in future can comes from capacity expansion, M&A, favorable macro/business environment & etc. Mr.market will soon or later absorb all these catalyst into share price, but before it does that's the time we act and make profit out of it.

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