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108 comment(s). Last comment by stockraider at Nov 5, 2019 11:14 AM
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Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

So, who say I don't know how to look at margin of safety leh? I know mah, why say I only know how to buy PE50 stocks? I use business sense mah. If got business sense of course use S=Q.r! buy good management in good markets to make monies, not buy good management in bad markets mah.

But having said that, even bad markets can buy if they give you free money right? Like Jon choivo like to say, if want to subscribe or give me money give you free ang pao lo.

This stock may stay depressed, it may go up, but it will never hurt you.

Thats what basic businesses do.

Try buying MYEG and SUMATEC? 1 year happy happy next year jump off the building.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 11:22 AM | Report Abuse

pump n dump.....u got to put in money first.......


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

KYY put in his own money......less than PE 10......and not from equity accounting....


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

FYI I am not buying this stock for my core investment ideas. It is merely a recommendation of safe growing stocks to look for in bursa that will not burn you or hurt you in the long run. My brother in law works here. It is not for everyone, buying safe boring stocks. It may also be the target of syndicates to pump and dump after looking at interested volume. In either case, practice good judgement and safe buying activities.Buy after quarterly earnings reports and management activities. And above all,

NEVER DO STUPID THINGS TO LOSE YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 11:29 AM | Report Abuse

throw a disc.
u get plenty of similar share nowadays....

if u want to make a difference...put in your money...and make sure enough of it......don't work, buy more until it works......


lazycat
858 posts

Posted by lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 11:32 AM | Report Abuse

mr phil , vitrox gtronic inari skpres penta dufu elsoft , 7 stocks , if u have 100k and u only can invest in this 7 stocks , what would u do?

*u can all in 1 stock and don't buy other 6


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

haha very true, we need some conviction right? But if I become substantial shareholder in this company everyone will know who I am. My style is simple, if I buy or sell any stocks, I don't feel the need to let people know I am buying or selling. STNE was very different I feel because i3 investors wont invest in foreign stocks.

No point in being a KYY buy then promote.

Investing is a competition against yourself, if you are making money then good. If you try to tell people to invest in something there is always an ulterior motive. What I am trying to promote is a way of thinking for yourself and choosing stocks for yourself, not to always follow and invest based on some sifu information.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

I don't think KYY sets out to cheat people....It is just the way he invests and his rules......



maybe OTB tells him about this below PE 10 share and good report last uarter....maybe he will buy.....I got no idea, all up to him and OTB.....


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 11:50 AM | Report Abuse

lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 11:32 AM | Report Abuse

mr phil , vitrox gtronic inari skpres penta dufu elsoft , 7 stocks , if u have 100k and u only can invest in this 7 stocks , what would u do?
==========


MI belongs to the same group....


speakup
15140 posts

Posted by speakup > Jan 28, 2019 11:50 AM | Report Abuse

year 2017 already pump & dump lah. many uncles & aunties trapped. u want to pump to FREE THEM first?


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

vitrox, gtronic, inari, penta, elsoft all have exposure to smartphone market slowdown (or did you think there would never be a terminal growth for tech industry?), skpress already have reduced orders from dyson and others and have increasing labour costs in the future (their biggest costs).
dufu does HDD which will dissapear when market comes out with the most efficient latest method of storing data (which will be sooner rather than later).5-10 years from now I doubt we would still be using HDD, instead of the new technology.

What is your timeline? If you mean in 1 year, I have totally no idea which stock will do well. If you mean in the next 5-10 years? I think all those stocks will not do well long term.

Ask yourself this question, how often did you upgrade your phones back in the days of iphone 1 and 2? How big is the improvement iteration today of smartphones? Are you waiting longer between cycles to change your phone because the improvements were miniscule? If you used to replace your phones every year how about now? 2 years change one time? 2.5 years upgrade to new phones? How many competitors in choosing the selection of phones? Do you think the margins enjoyed before by above companies will be able to repeat itself 3-5 years from now? I think the answer is definitely: NO.

Personally, I think you will be better off keeping your money in FD rather than invest in those companies. They run a very real risk of share price crash if the growth of stocks does not jive with earnings and revenue increase. And as sure as day, there will be a time when they will miss earnings forecasts. IF apple, samsung, xiaomi, huawei all experience slowdowns, you think those 7 stocks will keep hitting milestones?

Before I used to upgrade my phones because speed, features, quality and price was reasonable and improvements necessary.

These days I only upgrade my phones, when it breaks down. Even then I have already switched from Apple to the new XIAOMI POCOPHONE. 1399 with the speed and specs of samsung note.

Who needs the little pen tool anyway?


lazycat
858 posts

Posted by lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

well , if u buy at the dip around 2019 Jan 3 & 4 , u now sitting above 20++ even 30++ % profit

like i said , compound cigar butt 10% profit x12 in a year can turn 100k into 313k , timeline is not as important as the real return.

nobody know anything in the future, myb dufu will upgrade and invent a new better storage device? nobody know, right? hdd might will go away, but dufu will continue thrive


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 12:06 PM | Report Abuse

Automatic testing equipment....machine learning, machine vision.....every manufacturing company , every factory in the world is a potential client of Vitrox.......This one will be very successful with no end in sight.....


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:07 PM | Report Abuse

speakup how is uncle and aunties trapped?

If you held 7 share in this stock, today you would get 12 shares instead. and as the shares now are worth 50 cents each, you would have RM6 worth of shares.

You still had the same value, as you share price in july was 0.91 was RM6.31 for 7 shares.

You basically didn't lose or earn much in the short term of 1 year.

in 2017, you have 177 milion revenue with 15 million profit for share price 6.31

But today, at your share price of RM6, you are already looking at 2018 revenue of 188 million and 18 million profit.

Growing profit and revenues are a recipe of success.


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:12 PM | Report Abuse

lazycat, that is a very dangerous way of thinking. If you use that same train of thought, you could have bought sumatec at 0.010 per share on january 3&4, then sit on 100% profit 3 days later.

That sounds wonderful until you realize you are not investing, that is speculation and gambling.

You do not invest on random numbers on a chart. You make money based on a the consistency and quality of the chart.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 12:19 PM | Report Abuse

a story.....u want to pump a share, u need a story.....tell us a good story.......Balance Sheet figures its not a story, its just more boring stuffs.....


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:20 PM | Report Abuse

qqq, I'm sure you know your business well. But is vitrox better than market leader? In terms of quality of product?:

https://www.keyence.com/
https://www.teradyne.com/

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/10/31/1640278/0/en/Teradyne-Named-Best-Automatic-Test-Equipment-Supplier-for-2018-by-Dialog-Semiconductor.html

They have 4800 staff and spend more on R&D than the entire revenue of vitrox combined.

Do you know why vitrox product is selected for use for customers? Its because it is cheap. It is cheap not because it is high quality or unique. It is cheap because currently the company does not pay income tax, so it can be 30% cheaper than the competitors. But sooner or later once it starts paying 24% incoming tax, the fun stops.

Unless the founders can find a way to do something better than big sharks like teradyne and keyence.

I hope they do.


lazycat
858 posts

Posted by lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 12:21 PM | Report Abuse

ur style of investment can be dangerous as well, take padini as example
https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Stock-Chart.aspx?securitycode=7052&mode=D

ur topglove investment is a good example as well , oct november tg top up still in red?

i certainly won't buy sumahack, i only bought penta :p


lazycat
858 posts

Posted by lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

sumahack only trade within 1 to 1.5 c in this month , where the 100% come from?

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Stock-Chart.aspx?securitycode=1201&mode=D


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 12:28 PM | Report Abuse

u know what is the profit margin of Vitrox or not? Pay tax if make profits is not a problem....If Ringgit goes to $ 3.50 per US$ , I think got problem........

any way, Vitrox is the leader in Malaysia.....There will be customers for Vitrox.....for the smaller copy cats....their future is weaker...big eat small.......

whatever it is.....the reputation of Vitrox is excellent with all stake holders...shareholders, customers , staff, . It is an exceptional company....not just an average company......

just like QL, a share will do well as long as reputation and story is both good and remain good........


Gdex trades at PE 100 for many many years until it becomes obvious that despite the e commerce story....Competitive pressure means Gdex needs to be sold down.........


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:31 PM | Report Abuse

I never bought padini after change of fast fashion methods which padnin cant cope well with.

For topglove if you look at 2 month period sure its a bad investment. after 2 years it looks nicer. And if you invested in it like me in 2009 until now, I can just use the dividend to top up stocks, long term no one will crazy enough to bet against topglove.

It all depends on how you look at the market.

Topglove is 19% of world market of gloves production. drop 5-10% you know it will do well long term. New competitors hard to break in

The others malaysia tech stocks, I dont know if it will do well long term.

History has shown it cant sustain. Look at 2005 penang and what happened to semicon industry in bursa. How many stocks died.

Anyway, my circle of competency is very limited in things I dont care about.

I am sure qqq will do well in his investment in vitrox as long as he knows when to get out.

I am sure you will do well in you investments as long as you know when to get out.

I am particularly bad at knowing when to get out, thats why I still hold ql, topglove, pbb, yinson until today, still buying every quarter since 2009.

Maybe if I can learn how to time my investments I will do better in life.


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:36 PM | Report Abuse

Dear lazycat,
for sumatech share price went from 0.01 cent to 0.02 cent on 7th january. Horrible company, but you get what I mean.


lazycat
858 posts

Posted by lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

ppl like bill gates and jeft bezos , they don't hold microsoft , amazon forever , at some point you gotta cash out for greener opportunity


probability
10595 posts

Posted by probability > Jan 28, 2019 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

this is the best sincere article in i3 so far...you all still dont want to buy meh?


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

Jeff bezos started Amazon in 1994, and today in 2018 he still holds 78 million Amazon shares. I think he is still the biggest shareholder in Amazon if I'm not mistaken.

Bill gates only gave out his shares to the Melinda gates trust for charity purposes.

Warren buffet still has many shares in brk today.

Personally I think it's better to find a wonderful stock and ride it to the moon then buying thousands of average stocks, simply because it's easier to train the mind to look for wonderful stocks selling at fair prices, than to analyze hundreds of stocks carefully.

Lazycat, please don't take it the wrong way, but looking at your chosen stocks I have a feeling you have been playing stock market for less than 5 years. I have lost money for 5 years, invested in stock market for more than 18 years.

Our timeline horizons are very much different, goals are different, risks horizon is different.

It would be hard for me to go back to doing 3 jobs to pay for my stock market addiction. Haha.

I'm sure you have your way, and looking at me for confirmation bias may be the wrong place to look for answers.

Good luck in 2019!


Shinnzaii
2769 posts

Posted by Shinnzaii > Jan 28, 2019 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

Mr philip always clickbait me with title...hehe


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 12:58 PM | Report Abuse

Probability! Haha I am glad you see the humour.

But in all honesty, I'm sure my pump and dump stock will work out much better than all the stocks Calvin tan is promoting like binapuri, bjcorp, talam etc.

Why? I know what I am looking for, and I have insider information.

Good luck in 2019!


lazycat
858 posts

Posted by lazycat > Jan 28, 2019 1:05 PM | Report Abuse

actually i only put 10% of my capital on penta hehe , so far so good


Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)
7270 posts

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) > Jan 28, 2019 1:25 PM | Report Abuse

>>>

(S = Qr) Philip

haha very true, we need some conviction right?

Investing is a competition against yourself, if you are making money then good. If you try to tell people to invest in something there is always an ulterior motive. What I am trying to promote is a way of thinking for yourself and choosing stocks for yourself, not to always follow and invest based on some sifu information.
28/01/2019 11:36

>>>


Clap


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 2:23 PM | Report Abuse

insas 0.75
pphb 0.49
mnrb 1.07
ql 6.86
topglov 4.92
yinson 4.11
pbb 24.78
STNE 23.09

Just posting up here 28 jan prices of all the overvalued/undervalued/bad/good stocks that I am currently monitoring so I can pull out for easy analysis next year.


stockmanmy
6994 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > Jan 28, 2019 2:37 PM | Report Abuse

people who buys PPHB, Insas, TA are novices....They don't know market is full of such stuffs. Calvin will be able to tell u dozens of similar stuffs.....Like a giant vacuum machine, these will suck the novices money and forever disappears from view.

wait lo...wait for some random event ......or for the moon to turn blue.


Philip Greta
2143 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 28, 2019 2:45 PM | Report Abuse

Haha agreed, but I have a plan. The biggest problem now with PPHB is that the directors fees is too high! in 2017 their fees were 6.9 million, while company declare profit of 15 million. So not enough money for dividend,

If everyone follow my wife to sailang into PPHB buy out the 51% (very doable, only need 50 million to sapu them out), we can give our new directors the 6.9 million yearly instead! Kick out the bloody management!

Haha! Please everyone sell your shares cheaply so I can enact my master plan to turn PPHB into a profitable long term money making machine!

My offer still stands, if company market cap drops to 60 million, I will sapu whole company and eat everybody up!

7 million a year in fees sounds so good.

*notice how I dont buy companies with poor management. Management is a key component of how well a company can perform long term.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 2:53 PM | Report Abuse

S=Qr

easy formula to make money , long term......


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 3:22 PM | Report Abuse

there is another group of people......kc does not want to look at quality shares, shares with Big and Obvious Q,...he says these are too institutionalized....cannot make money out of the fund manager shares......

So, they go look for non institutionalized shares with accounting check list in hand......they call it margin of safety.....

For a few years , they had a good run didn't they?

Now, they are faced with Mourinho problem......First two years do well, third year every thing collapsed.....change manager wins 8 out of 8...........


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 3:29 PM | Report Abuse

who lost money on Hengyuan?...the PE people...

the business sense people avoided losing money in Hengyuan......

moral of the story....The PE people can some times make money but will find a way to lose it all back.

But it is the Business Sense people who participates in the growth of excellent companies and avoids silly mistakes.......


Zhuge_Liang
568 posts

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Jan 28, 2019 3:37 PM | Report Abuse

I will follow the sifu who makes money consistently and have very good track records in I3.
I definitely will not follow the liar who cheats all the times and continuously telling lies in I3.
Invest in stock market does not require so complicated formula, I will use simple formula.

I do not care whether it is white cat or black cat, can catch a rat is a good cat.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 3:39 PM | Report Abuse

liang...Mourinho also did well, some times......


Sslee
1954 posts

Posted by Sslee > Jan 28, 2019 6:15 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Mr. Philip,
I refer trade view recommendation:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/143376.jsp
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Jan 28, 2019 07:46 AM | Report Abuse
I remember reading this before and thought trade view was a very smart fund manager.
My question remain: I agree with you “trade view was a very smart fund manager” so my question if trade view called QL at RM2.40 with TP RM 3.50 in 2015 and sold all at RM 4.30 in 2016. Then what stop them call QL in Jan 2018 with TP of RM5 PE 40X and sold all by now? And bought 2019 call (Tradeview 2019) Forward 6 Value Picks for 2019 (TM, PPHB, DKSH, Elsoft, BJ Food & Perstima)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/186736.jsp

The first one you use it to hit at Jon Choivo on QL and the second one you use it to poke fun of value investor especially stockraider comparing PPHB with INSAS.

I find it not funny at all, I remember I make this comment: “Dear Mr. Phillip,
Former First Lady of USA Michelle Obama dignified self respect, dignity and magnanimous by her famous quote:
“When someone is cruel or act like a bully, you don’t stoop to their level,” she said. “No, our motto is, “When they go low, we go high”
I am disappointed with you as it is absurd, laughable and childish comparing INSAS to FINTEC even though this is pure sarcasm.
The fact on net profit for INSAS and FINTEC refer to below:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3379.jsp
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/0150.jsp

I refer to Trade view report: Similarly for PPHB, our initial valuation for the stock will be RM0.70 at least. The company continued to outperform and severely undervalued when FBMKLCI mid cap index fell close to 25% for the year. This was a good opportunity to collect at around 55 sens and below. The downside to this stock is because there is no dividend policy and may appear as a value trap. Nonetheless, the whacked down share price far below its actual value provide a good opportunity to enter a mid-term value investment .

Note: FYR 2017 Profit after taxation RM 15,525,000. Board Members:
Koay Chiew Poh: Executive Chairman
Koay Chiew Kang: Executive Director
Koay Teng Liang: Executive Director
Koay Teng Kheong: Executive Director
Nurjannah Binti Ali: Independent Non-Executive Director
Ng Thim Fook: Independent Non-Executive Director
Ong Eng Choon: Independent Non-Executive Director
Koay Chue Beng: Alternate Director to Koay Chiew Poh
DIRECTORS’ FEES AND BENEFITS: RM 7,017,000. So is Koay’s family member care about minority shareholder or just treat the company as their own piggy bank to pay them a big fat cheque?.

Thank you.


Sslee
1954 posts

Posted by Sslee > Jan 28, 2019 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Repost:
3iii,
Insas
Its accounts are just as complex as BCorp.! 27/01/2019 14:27
Dear 3iii,
Since INSAS free cash flow from operation activities is greatly influence by lending activities of ICL and investment activities is greatly influence from investment holding and trading (Trading of Securities and acquiring/selling associate companies, right issue/warrant and etc)
Allow me to do some summary on FCF:

2018:
Non-current assets: RM 795,054,000 of which:
1. Associate companies: RM 357,618,000: Inari (19.1%), Ho Hup (12.2%), Melium (43.4), Winfields (40%) and others. Note: (19.1% Inari) contribute dividend RM 40,147,000.
2. Properties, plant and equipment RM 161,405,000 consist of: Land and building: RM 29,615,000. Machinery, renovation, office equipment: RM 4,725,000 and Motor vehicle: RM 127,065,000. For car rental business pretax profit: RM 242,000
3. Investment properties: (Land, building) RM 198,304,000. Note: Rental income RM 3,433,000 fair value gain RM 2,404,000
4. Available for sales Investment: (Quoted and unquoted investments/securities) RM 45,022,000.
5. Held to maturity investment: (Bonds) RM 5,352,000. Bond interest 4.38% to 6.63%
6. Intangible assets (Stock broking dealer’s license): RM 26,047,000. Note: M&A Securities pretax profit: RM10, 000,000.

Trade receivable: RM 376,481,000. ICL: Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 30 June 2018: RM 208,135,000 Note: The interest rate charged by ICL is in accordance with the Money-lending Act, which is not more than 12% p.a. for secured loans and not more than 18% p.a. for unsecured loans. The total interest income earned by ICL from the money-lending business for FY2018 is RM23.0 million.
Financial assets at fair value thro’ profit or loss: RM 236,562,000
Quoted securities, at market value
- in Malaysia RM 57,744,00. Gross dividend RM 2,750,000.
- Outside Malaysia RM 178,818,000. Gross dividend RM 6,797,000.
Net cash and cash equivalents: (Cash, bank balance and deposit – bank balance/deposit pledged for financial asset/securities) = RM 418,590,000
Note: Current asset – total liabilities = RM (1,426,146,000 – 212,800,000 -352,434,000) = RM 860,912,000

2017:
Non-current assets: RM 740,376,000 of which associate companies: RM 301,303,000
Trade receivable: RM 404,778,000. ICL: Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 30 June 2017: RM 227,229,000
Financial assets at fair value thro’ profit or loss: RM 303,544,000
Net cash and cash equivalents: (Cash, bank balance and deposit – bank balance/deposit pledge for financial asset/securities) = RM 301,394,000

2016:
Non-current assets: RM 683,651,000 of which associate companies: RM 276,524,000
Trade receivable: RM 290,833,000. ICL: Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 30 June 2016: RM 127,882,000
Financial assets at fair value thro’ profit or loss: RM 312,594,000
Net cash and cash equivalents: (Cash, bank balance and deposit – bank balance/deposit pledged for financial asset/securities) = RM 258,050,000

2015
Non-current assets: RM 628,062,000 of which associate companies: RM 224,848,000
Trade receivable: RM 303,622,000. ICS: Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 30 June 2015: RM 121,119,000
Financial assets at fair value thro’ profit or loss: RM 291,080,000
Net cash and cash equivalents: (Cash, bank balance and deposit – bank balance/deposit for Pledge for financial asset/securities) = RM 184,292,000

2014:
Non-current assets: RM 545,286,000 of which associate companies: RM 141,731,000
Trade receivable: RM 341,068,000. ICL: Aggregate amount of outstanding loans as at 30 June 2014: RM 117,721,000
Financial assets at fair value thro’ profit or loss: RM 288,174,000
Net cash and cash equivalents: (Cash, bank balance and deposit – bank balance/deposit for Pledge for financial asset/securities) = RM 111,007,000

Thank you


Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)
7270 posts

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart) > Jan 28, 2019 6:40 PM | Report Abuse

Thks SSLee


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 6:45 PM | Report Abuse

sslee


u cross every T, can make money or not?

u can count the trees, more important, u can see the forest or not?


kcchongnz
6610 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > Jan 28, 2019 6:47 PM | Report Abuse

While I was enjoying reading this article, followed by the comments, I see my name being mentioned here again. This quack quack quack, aka Desa9697, Stockmanny, Brightsmart, TheLoneRanger, etc etc. loves to quack quack here, quack quack there, here quack there quack everywhere quack quack quack. Allow me to make some clarifications, otherwise newbies here will be misld by this quack.


Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 03:22 PM | Report Abuse
there is another group of people......kc does not want to look at quality shares, shares with Big and Obvious Q,...he says these are too institutionalized....cannot make money out of the fund manager shares......

Me: Quack quack quack doesn't know what is "quality". He think quality comes with a "Q", or quack quack quack. He thinks those shares only held by institutional investors are quality share. All others are rubbish. He thinks companies like Jaks and Sendai are "Q" stocks. Go through his articles and comments for the last two years. They are all about panic moment, dynamite investing, sailang, margin on these two stocks and nothing else.


So, they go look for non institutionalized shares with accounting check list in hand......they call it margin of safety.....

Me: What "checklist" this quack talking about? Yes, checklist is good. Many super investors, including Monish Pabrai use checklist. I suggest, first time here, investors to use check list. What is wrong with checklist? Check list is called "margin of safety"? Who said that? The quack quack quack?


For a few years , they had a good run didn't they?

Me: Yes, I had had good runs since 2008 until 2017. For 2018, we lose some money, little money. But how many investors don't lose money in 2018? What do you think our return is with a few years of good runs and a small loss in 2018?


Now, they are faced with Mourinho problem......First two years do well, third year every thing collapsed.....change manager wins 8 out of 8...........

Me: WTF Mourinho? Investing is like playing football ah? Quack quack quack here, quack quack quack there!


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 7:24 PM | Report Abuse

kc..... u see all the analysts, value here value there, tp here tp there... can make money or not?


stockraider
13294 posts

Posted by stockraider > Jan 28, 2019 7:28 PM | Report Abuse

THIS IS WHAT WE CALL CONSCIENCE INVESTMENT CALL BY CALVIN...A TRUE BELIEVER & A GOD FEARING INVESTOR LOH..!!

So far so bullish

Now what are the downsides?



1) The profit of Sasbadi depends on Govt Tenders which are fixed in prices. But cost of production is not. If newsprint & ink price go up then Sasbadi will make less profit. If paper prices spike up too high then Sasbadi night even incur a loss.

However, Sasbadi can ask for a higher price since tender process is year by year or semester by semester.



2) With the sanguine management (Directors are fully aware of the Rm60.2 Billions : please note IT IS RM60.2 BILLIONS and not Rm60.2 Millions) And Rm60.2 Billions is about the cost of High Speed Rail which was postponed.

So Directors have gone into added production & pile up even more inventories due to glowing prospects

Now if there is cash flow constrain Company might go into borrowings or even issue RI to raise capital



3) EPF entrust the selling or buying of shares to outsourced entities. So there in no certainty whether EPF will continue to sell down Sasbadi shares or start buying back again.



So there are positives and there are negatives about Sasbadi.

I cannot say buy or sell for you



You have to decide with this information



Good luck



Best Wishes for All in Year 2019



Calvin Tan

Jurong West, Singapore


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 7:56 PM | Report Abuse

kc...there are no accounting margin of safety...its a delusion.

There are only two kinds of safety....

1 learn to say NO....
2 good sense of timing.....

using NTA and PE as margin of safety is a delusion.....


probability
10595 posts

Posted by probability > Jan 28, 2019 8:02 PM | Report Abuse

sifu qqq3, you mean margin of safety induced by fear?


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 8:20 PM | Report Abuse

by probability > Jan 28, 2019 08:02 PM | Report Abuse

sifu qqq3, you mean margin of safety induced by fear?
=========

yes, that is what I mean.....all these people placing unwarranted comfort in accounting stuffs....they fear yet want to do because of their comfort pillows.....


probability
10595 posts

Posted by probability > Jan 28, 2019 8:25 PM | Report Abuse

ok...the tune of X factor is slowly getting into my ears....


kcchongnz
6610 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > Jan 28, 2019 8:28 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 07:56 PM | Report Abuse
kc...there are no accounting margin of safety...its a delusion.

There are only two kinds of safety....
1 learn to say NO....
2 good sense of timing.....
using NTA and PE as margin of safety is a delusion.....


Accounting margin of safety? WTF is that?

Your 2 kinds of MOS? to say No, and good sense of timing? WTF are those?

You only know how to quack quack quack here, quack quack quack there.

You see, if you know nothing, just keep quiet and nobody knows you are stupid. But every time you open your mouth, you expose your utmost ignorance.

Well, good also. Give us some fun here.


qqq3
13577 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 8:41 PM | Report Abuse

probability....for not losing money in HT Padu, u are ok.

smart and prudent....

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