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108 comment(s). Last comment by stockraider at Nov 5, 2019 11:14 AM
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qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 8:47 PM | Report Abuse

kc...imagination....u need imagination to succeed....merely facts and figures alone cannot succeed......


snoopy uses his pillow as comfort pillows...

raider and u use accounting stuffs as comfort pillows....still wrong....

one of the worse sin, the cardinal sin is drawn into false sense of security....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/187899.jsp


probability
10583 posts

Posted by probability > Jan 28, 2019 9:04 PM | Report Abuse

Mechanical engineers should be able to understand this:
.......................................................

when we have a centrifugal pump (business) pumping in a pipeline system (market operating in relative to bond market)...

the operating pressure (price of the business) is decided by the pump curve superimposed on the system curve......

if you replace the pump with a higher RPM (higher KW, i.e a better business), the pump curve will change to achieve a new higher operating head - pressure (price) with the same system curve....

the same way, if you increase the friction of the system (decrease the Interest rate or Bond yield) your operating head will shift to a higher head (higher price) with the same pump (same business)....

the converse is true, when you reduce the RPM (lower KW) of the pump (inferior business)...or increase the interest rate...it will then result with reduced operating head (lower stock price)...

.............................

so the only way to have price changes is if we have a change in the business performance (var 1) or a change in the interest rate (var 2)...

if not because of the above two variables, the only other options are changing the perception of the market on the business..

changing the viscosity of the system

one way is artificially induced fear (var 3)...or artificially induced optimism (var 4)...

we probably cannot have the price changing by itself without any changes to any of the above four variables above.

Keyword - change
................


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 28, 2019 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

Peter Lynch... change.


probability
10583 posts

Posted by probability > Jan 29, 2019 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

As long as the business performance is maintained as per the perception of market.

Price would not change if the company earnings are paid out as dividend, if not it should at least change to reflect the cumulative cash owned by the company with time in theory.


stockraider
13199 posts

Posted by stockraider > Jan 29, 2019 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

Just ask yourself the director remunerations of Rm 7 million, can justify this type of investment in this stock leh ??


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 4:57 PM | Report Abuse

pump and dump?

got to learn from carimin ......u need commitment, guts, conviction, confidence.......got or not?


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 5:01 PM | Report Abuse

make money from low quality shares u think so easy?

.u need commitment, guts, conviction, confidence.......got or not?


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 29, 2019 8:25 PM | Report Abuse

Definitely not easy, because all the low quality stocks are depressed for a reason. In this stock case, the 2 main reason why this stock is depressed is because of director remunerations and the business it is in.

However, isn't it easier to fix those problems to get a good money making profitable business running than to find businesses losing money and hoping for a turnaround?

The business itself is sound, simple and scalable, and probably idiot proof.

Right now idiots are running it, but time will tell what the future will bring.

Buying these kinds of business is far better than taking a stab in companies like sumatec and bumi armada.

Those I put in my too hard pile.


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 29, 2019 9:05 PM | Report Abuse

I'm trying out a new experiment here. If I talk enough BS, scold anyone who disagrees with me. Keep posting articles and comments every day to build up volume in i3, will there be a net effect of share price increase of the stock?

The stock is small enough that creating enough noise and volume might actually a big volatility in the price of the stock.

Stay tuned to my experiment in pphb. It's interesting enough that I think it's worthwhile to invest the next dividend 4Q from ppb in this stock.

Conviction!


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 29, 2019 9:07 PM | Report Abuse

If PBB give out 0.32 cents again, it might actually be interesting enough to try it out,

If the quarterly results are within expectations. 190k sailang!


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 9:17 PM | Report Abuse

Then, there is the Carimin pile....mysterious Oil and gas contractor suddenly reports 5 sen earnings in last quarter.....X 4 gives 20 sens earnings X PE 10 gives $ 2.00 target price.....don't believe?, let me how u magic.......some more got 5 years contract from Petronas. ...u can also add your own imagination if u wish......



PPHB? what story? any story? got 5 years contract meh? got quarter profits X 4 = super profits meh? got chongker meh?


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

Then, there is the Carimin pile....mysterious Oil and gas contractor suddenly reports 5 sen earnings in last quarter.....X 4 gives 20 sens earnings X PE 10 gives $ 2.00 target price.....don't believe?, let me how u magic.......some more got 5 years contract from Petronas. ...u can also add your own imagination if u wish...... $ 1 billion contract according to OTB.


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 29, 2019 9:37 PM | Report Abuse

hmmmm I know what I am getting into bed with if I do invest in pphb. The earnings and growth are pretty straightforward.

With carimin, the share price is obviously manipulated with heavy buying. Kyy goes in sure win I guess in the short term.

So far with carimin the contract wins have all been for undisclosed amounts, at least those that I have read about la. Do enlightened me if I am wrong.

They also has a contract win in 2016 for 2 years for mechanical works. Also negative income.

Their contract 5 year win was in 2017 I believe and validity date started in September 20th 2017 to September 19 2022. Since it is undisclosed and it is a maintenance, construction and modification work I highly doubt it will be a full 20 cents earnings every quarter for modification works. I think I know enough about oil and gas modification works to know there was a VO work involved.

If entire 2018 for the contract when oil price was high no activity, in 2019 when the original mechanical contract ends there will probably be done rectification work done.

Looking at the information available for MCM contracts, I highly doubt that the earnings will be sustainable in the medium term.

Although if I had more information about the details of the contracts I would probably change my mind.


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 9:39 PM | Report Abuse

on carimin, what I know concurs with yours......


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 29, 2019 9:47 PM | Report Abuse

For PPHB I'm not very optimistic either, but in 2019 first quarter the hotel will start operations, but it has clearer details.

The Quay in Penang Island will consist of a five storey boutique hotel and retail lots with total built up of approximately 18,050 sq m and 950 sq m respectively with approximately 160 guestrooms together with a two-storey car park of 100 car park spaces,” PPHB said.

The company expects that the profit contribution of this hotel and commercial property leasing business will start to accrue in year 2018. The board expects that the deployment of assets of 25% or more of the net assets of PPHB for the hotel and commercial property leasing business,” it said in the filing.

It's a little bit late but should be finished by 2019. And it's right at pangkalan weld, so it's with waiting for I guess.

Average room rates it Penang pangkalan weld is from 200-400. At 55-75% occupancy. So if I take 80 rooms per year is looking around 5.8 million in room rental revenue, not including the car parking charges and retail lots rental.

If I add in another 3 million in total profit to bottom line of PPHB it seems like a good deal.

Even if the management is lousy. At least they don't lose money and no share placement.


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 29, 2019 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Qqq3 some info on brownfield projects from my past experience with shell sites in sabah. After taken over by hibiscus ( which I still don't understand why anyone would buy. If it makes money, shell will keep it. If it worth the selling is the price paid by hibiscus to shell worth it? I've been to the rig. I still don't get the price paid for the asset.)

For MCM contract 5 year contract won by carimin, it is brownfield project.
https://www.2b1stconsulting.com/brownfield/

Hope this helps. I think the only thing that can give carimin more visibility in the mid term is more contract wins from Petronas. But with the oil price dropping again this year, contracts will be hard to find, and margins will be low.

I really don't like the 1-3 year projects for oil and gas projects.


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

Shell again just like Hengyuan..hahahaha....

It was a great show $ 2 to $ 19.....I am sure many are hopeful for Act 2 in Hibiscus....

Hibiscus has $ 1.6 billion reflected as good will in the Balance Sheet....Just an accounting thing as a result of merger accounting....I guess it represents the oil under the ground according to experts and valuers....Its games people play.

Just like land in developer account, The higher the revaluation of land in the Balance sheet, the bigger the cost of sales in future years......So Hibiscus will have impressive cashflows in future but no profits one if they do the accounting properly.....

If one is bullish about oil prices, it is better to trade oil futures......


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 29, 2019 10:56 PM | Report Abuse

For Carimin, the chongker thinks it is worth $ 2......the rest it is everyone for himself....maybe he gets lucky , and it becomes like VS...every quarter better than previous quarter........I would not know...... luck works in mysterious ways.....

It is not fair to say KYY sets out to cheat people. His own money in the game too.


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 12:38 AM | Report Abuse

there is something about quarter profits X 4 that is very attractive and irresistible......agree?


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 30, 2019 9:06 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3 dont say la I said KYY sets out to cheat people. I know his own skin in the game. But I never said that he purposely cheat people. I just dont understand the theory of buying a stock, telling everyone you bought the stock, then saying you dont need care if anyone knows. I bought QL for years quietly without needing to let people know, just so I can buy it a cheap price.

your mention that quarter profits x 4 is also, has Carimin showed a profit guarantee or earnings estimation guidance for the year 2019? I missed that. If got, then I malu never read enough. but did Carimin really say they will have a yearly earnings guidance of 20 cents already? Can share that article so I can update my knowledge?


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 9:54 AM | Report Abuse

there is something about quarter profits X 4 that is very attractive and irresistible..its psychological, just like the Hengyuan days.....

its risk - reward......and the more people thinks alike , the higher it goes , the higher it goes, the more people interested, margin account expands, its a win win.....its all about margin account expanding......


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

U finally eat curry mee ah?


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

0.40 dont want to buy n buy at 0.60+?

Still can make lah


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 9:57 AM | Report Abuse

Forget yr so called trading stocks n trafing gain of few cents lah


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 9:57 AM | Report Abuse

u bought back or not? talk so much....


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 9:59 AM | Report Abuse

I sold some at 0.60+ n keep my free stocks to see otb's tp minus 10% to 20% discount


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 10:00 AM | Report Abuse

don't look down on a few sens here a few sen there...the name of the game is to avoid major disasters.......


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

Last month asked u to buy day n night when it was 0.40 u kept on talking rubbish

Now kyy asked u to buy at 0.60 u only chased in...

Now u can see who treats u better...


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:01 AM | Report Abuse

My one deal in currymee can cover yr hundred deals...lol


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

Somemore hows yr winning probability? 60%? 70%??


Icon8888
18302 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 30, 2019 10:03 AM | Report Abuse

long time no see sifu CharlesT, we all miss you


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:04 AM | Report Abuse

Getting old oredi...less energy to screw idiots in i3...kesian


Icon8888
18302 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 30, 2019 10:05 AM | Report Abuse

we miss your 6 sense, 7 sense

67 sense


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:07 AM | Report Abuse

My 67 sense is as good as KB system bro icon8888

Talking 67 can make more than most of TA/FA/ ghost n grandmother stories ah


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 10:08 AM | Report Abuse

icon...quarter profit X4 looks like a better bet than HT Padu and its start up.......how?


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

My 67 sense beats most if not all the theories in stock mkt last year

Lets c how it goes this year...


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 10:16 AM | Report Abuse

If u ask me yr JAKS is more 67 than my 67 sense ah


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 11:07 AM | Report Abuse

the simplicity of quarter profits X 4 that is very attractive and irresistible.

it works until it does not.


DickyMe
4197 posts

Posted by DickyMe > Jan 30, 2019 11:09 AM | Report Abuse

Correct your spelling first!


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

So what now? Yr call to sialang with margin in currymee?


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

Time to work ah?


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

no more comments from me on carimin.....said every thing I want to say.....


wiki123
2448 posts

Posted by wiki123 > Jan 30, 2019 11:37 AM | Report Abuse

@Charles, your curry mee that time I eat some when you brought me there... the ingredients didn't put alot... maybe pple not interested... now they added si ham, fu chuk etc... now maybe pple come try and taste... or maybe they started to add ipoh taugeh for uncle?

CharlesT Last month asked u to buy day n night when it was 0.40 u kept on talking rubbish

Now kyy asked u to buy at 0.60 u only chased in...

Now u can see who treats u better...
30/01/2019 10:01


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 11:52 AM | Report Abuse

Wiki123 learn n understand KB system...very powerful one


CharlesT
8078 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Jan 30, 2019 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

Fast n furious...but dont fall in love


wiki123
2448 posts

Posted by wiki123 > Jan 30, 2019 11:54 AM | Report Abuse

where to learn? can point me the url? many sifu here to learn from... :)


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 3:11 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 03:10 PM | Report Abuse X

anyway...shareholders of Lotte are value takers....

but meaningful success comes from s =Qr....Philip kind of stock at an early stage is good .....


qqq3
13576 posts

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 30, 2019 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Vitrox/192004.jsp

better than value takers like Lotte.


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 30, 2019 3:49 PM | Report Abuse

KB system is very powerful, it works until it doesn't. But just don't turn your brain off and follow blindly...


Philip Greta
2125 posts

Posted by Philip Greta > Jan 30, 2019 5:42 PM | Report Abuse

Probability I just noticed this. Are you also an engineer as well?
Happy Chinese New year!

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