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28 comment(s). Last comment by Ximon Lim at Feb 25, 2019 7:41 AM
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Choivo Capital
3439 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Feb 23, 2019 2:48 PM | Report Abuse

That plane is sold in the same batch as the Airasia sale .


Dato Seri John Lu
5093 posts

Posted by Dato Seri John Lu > Feb 23, 2019 3:23 PM | Report Abuse

Tony.. Haha.. Talk and keep talking but years of losing money


lizi
1995 posts

Posted by lizi > Feb 23, 2019 4:24 PM | Report Abuse

oil going up....takut..even got hedging....still takut...


Travestor
984 posts

Posted by Travestor > Feb 23, 2019 5:17 PM | Report Abuse

Yep and these announcements of incorporating 10 leasing companies are probably to achieve the same thing as AA...

#1
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5726109

#2 & #3
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5801969

#4 - #9
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5955533

#10
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6006429


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 23, 2019 6:39 PM | Report Abuse

Below articles clearly set up the AAX fleet size and going forward.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/asia-lcc-widebody-fleet-airasia-x-will-triple-in-size-in-10-years-429428

one significant impact given by the new A330-900 neo is that it can reach much longer distance.

A much longer distance may translate into much higher airfare. Longer distance also encourage higher ancillary income on board (from meal to entertaiment).

The prospect of AAX is simply there. Just waiting for good timing to jump in.


Travestor
984 posts

Posted by Travestor > Feb 23, 2019 8:58 PM | Report Abuse

What price you deem is good? ;)


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 23, 2019 9:26 PM | Report Abuse

i will wait for dust settle down after market priced in Q4 2018 result. Wait for low volatility.


supersaiyan3
2444 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Feb 24, 2019 2:03 AM | Report Abuse

I am not interested in AAX, but can talk little bit.

1) Airasia's main competitors are MAS, Malindo, sort of weak. Airasia X's competitors are QANTAS, SIA, CATHAY, etc much stronger.

2) Airasia's plane sale is done deal. PE 3.54. Airasia X negative PE most of the time.

3) Last year Airasia gave a few routes to AAX for free, now seems not much difference also.

4) When your unit cost is so low, in fact making profit and branding shouldn't be that difficult. There are problems that AAX management and TF doesn't understand yet. Nobody in this world know yet.

5) Yes, AAX may sell planes, but it will take a long time. Don't think there will be special dividend like Airasia. AAX is broke.

6) Two/Three years ago, KM said can take over AAX. Then Tony said no. You are on your own! Very difficult to cure AAX, not even Airasia.

7) In the first place, AAX was set up like a colony(殖民地), that's why Airasia held low shareholding.

8) However, the maintenance expenses seems to be really going down. You remember a group of engineers protest? I wish this is a good news: AAX and Airasia make use of Big Data to monitor maintenance. But I will not fly AAX for the moment. About 1 year before MH370, Johari said daily maintenance expenses down to 1m from 5m. Then they lost MH370. 8501 was also partly due to maintenance problem.

9) Thailand AAX listing is a good news though.

10) New CEO seems to be smart guy.

11) This is the best year for AAX, but still only mediocre performance comparatively.

Good luck, guys!


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 8:27 AM | Report Abuse

1) SIA, Qantas, cathay are target, not competitors.
2) airasia PE 3.54, plane sales done deal are known facts. Do you expect how fast it share price can jump 100% from now?
3) the route transfer talk started in february and approval took about 6 to 8 months. looks like aax is benefited because it registered operating profit in Q4 18 and total q4 core earning stook above + rm 40 mil even under 89 high fuel price low hedge and lower airfare in Q4.
4) if you can't see through a problem, leave it to god or continue work hard to see through it.
5) dont expect dividend, dont know why you expect a dividend in the 1st place. aax is potentially future airasia. not current airasia. plane sold help to cut all debts and it save interest. A330-900 neo is coming. AAX is ready to fly long haul on top of mid haul.
6) very difficult to cure is because of one's imagination. Not the fighter mentality la.
7) 49% is low shareholding (tuneprotect,airasia,tony,km). Free float share of aax is about 51% Not sure how much shareholding is consider high to you.
8) airasia n aax share same maintainance team la...u dare to fly airasia?
11) compare to airasia, you are right.


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 8:42 AM | Report Abuse

AAX is at the bottom now. Another bad year will not harm the share price i think. Airasia is at top now, 1 bad quarter can cause serious damage to investors.

Risk / Reward ratio is my priority too when investing a share.


supersaiyan3
2444 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Feb 24, 2019 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

(1) The 1st reason for AAX investors to buy AAX is of course, the profitability of the company. It is not wrong. And AAX team is certainly working very hard to push for Revenue/ ASK, load factors, passenger carried, and at the same time, keep cutting Cost/ ASK. However, if you are common investors, i afraid you may be missing the big story of Airasia/AAX model - the potential of cash to be salvaged and pay out as special dividend via selling off the asset when matured. The real cash that the shareholders are receiving!!!

And your title said "BIG FAT MEAT? "

In response to Your no.5

You are in denial/defence mode, no point to discuss then.


supersaiyan3
2444 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Feb 24, 2019 10:26 AM | Report Abuse

8) If Airasia maintenance people jump up and protest, I will not fly Airasia too. But they haven't yet.


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 11:54 AM | Report Abuse

they have not sell any plane yet, not even the current 5 planes. Specify your time frame. Then u get specific answer.


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

I dont expect any specific devidend if current 5 planes sold. Do u expect that?


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 11:59 AM | Report Abuse

"aax is not current airasia", u read?


Shinnzaii
3053 posts

Posted by Shinnzaii > Feb 24, 2019 12:01 PM | Report Abuse

supersaiyan3...unlikely going to happen....operate airline one know employees include flight attendants are very important for them other than fuel expenses itself...if you treat your staff well then should be fine...try to look at glassdoor to find out the review from employees...unfortunately larh, fuel expenses is the main expenses in AAX...but at least they not sit quietly and improved their CASK excluding fuel...


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

And i am very concerned that u relate mh 370 airplanes lost to the maintainance team. You know what is 祸从口出?

good luck to you!!!


Shinnzaii
3053 posts

Posted by Shinnzaii > Feb 24, 2019 12:06 PM | Report Abuse

Referee...you can upgrade larh...business premium suit package...hahahaha


kuan1209
62 posts

Posted by kuan1209 > Feb 24, 2019 12:11 PM | Report Abuse

Stop being naive. Most passengers see AAX as Airasia. If AAX got accident, they will only blame Airasia as a whole. Do you think Airasia will risk their reputation?

Safety Rating 7/7
https://www.airlineratings.com/ratings/airasia-x/


supersaiyan3
2444 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Feb 24, 2019 5:40 PM | Report Abuse

I have been saying this for the last three years. No need luck! I provide a lot of the information to a few international website. I also wrote to the new Transport Minister, but of course no body give a shit.


supersaiyan3
2444 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Feb 24, 2019 5:50 PM | Report Abuse

禍從口出?恐嚇我呢!

當我說LayHong的雞被滅了填埋的時候,有一個叫Herbert Chua的說報警捉我呢!看來我高估你了,你們就一個水平上。

你自己暗示明示說有特別股息,說了又不認!這樣討論也沒有意思啦!

你要找吃也要分明是非對錯曲直。


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 6:01 PM | Report Abuse

AAX is broke 10 years down the road? No capability to give special dividend after the leasing arm and business establish. Are you sure?

Anyway, i know you are one of the can't-deal-with forummer in Airasia chat room. I rest my case.


Ximon Lim
154 posts

Posted by Ximon Lim > Feb 24, 2019 10:04 PM | Report Abuse

For def tax part, my observation, Aax last purchase of asset(huge amount, 400mil in 2014 and 1bil in 2013). From tax point of view, Capital allowance is 40% in the first year, 20% for the subsequent.

Until 2016, The nbv of assets is higher than the tax written down value + unclaimed capital allowance. Hence, every year there is a deferred tax liabilities incurred in profit and loss.

For Q3, why there is a deferred tax asset in P&L. This frustrate me quite a time. I can’t find out the reason. The only possible reason is the addition of 162mil purchase in fixed asset. But in Q4, the addition of fixed asset of 9mil. Addition in fixed assets will pushed up the DTA for that quarter. For me, it is quite missleading.


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 24, 2019 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

Ximon, may i ask the sudden huge surge on deferred tax liability is related to their intention to sell the 5 planes? Since the planes are to be sold, therefore they expense it off? Many thanks


Ximon Lim
154 posts

Posted by Ximon Lim > Feb 24, 2019 11:43 PM | Report Abuse

According to accounting std, only expense it offf when the sales is completed. U Mayb refer to Airasia Q3 report note 28.


Ximon Lim
154 posts

Posted by Ximon Lim > Feb 24, 2019 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

AA have a huge unclaimed capital allowance, and they sold their old plane. Depreciation is 15-25 years for each plane, Capital allowance is 40% first year, subsequently 20% for the next 4 years.

For AA, although I can’t get their tax computation. But I can assumed, the unclaimed CA is so huge. When they sold their planes, for example, they will take out 100mil asset in nbv, but Tax written down value of Rm1. But leave unclaimed CA unchanged. Above is applied for asset purchased more than 2 years. That why in Q3, their DTA increased and reflect a Rm500 mil in their P&L.

In Aax, Q3 report, like I mentioned, DTA increased by Rm50mil? Due to addition of Rm268mil asset purchased? Then in Q4, reversal of Rm117mil, I guess is adjustment on over provision in prior quarter/ or accounting “magic” to make a better profit. Anyone raise in the agm, why asset purchased in Q3 is higher than Q4? Cheating??

Back to AA, I won’t worry about the profit making this quarter. Just scare tony make a magic again in def tax. Reversal? Same as Aax? Def tax won’t affect the operating profit but Malaysian don understand def tax, they see it as company performance. Haiz


YiStock
1969 posts

Posted by YiStock > Feb 25, 2019 7:19 AM | Report Abuse

if operating income is ugly for 1 particular quarter, can DTA to magic a little. That's the purpose of magic. For AAX, Q3 was already a very ugly quarter due to impairment, the DTA no helping at all. But Q4 is operating Profitable quarter, the DT pull it into red. Tony do not like green quarter?


Ximon Lim
154 posts

Posted by Ximon Lim > Feb 25, 2019 7:41 AM | Report Abuse

Q4 he wan magic pun can’t. Later it will big dif with annual report. He will GG.

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