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15 comment(s). Last comment by Chua Joe Beng at Aug 17, 2020 7:19 AM
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liewtz06
352 posts

Posted by liewtz06 > Aug 12, 2020 4:53 PM | Report Abuse

It is flawed to assume 20% increase in ASP only resulted in 20% EPS increase.


MaYun
264 posts

Posted by MaYun > Aug 12, 2020 5:16 PM | Report Abuse

ha ha ha, really a vinkuat ( win kuat ) opinion


vinkuat
24 posts

Posted by vinkuat > Aug 12, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

@liewtz06 what you say is accurate, just take the gross and +/-. SPOT order also haven't calculate.


vinkuat
24 posts

Posted by vinkuat > Aug 12, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

@MaYun :)


tcgien
133 posts

Posted by tcgien > Aug 12, 2020 7:18 PM | Report Abuse

ASP increase +20%, then you shall use revenue +20% and then deduct the operating cost to get PBT and PAT.
PAT divide number of shares. Only this calculation is correct.

Not simplistic with EPS +20%,


tcgien
133 posts

Posted by tcgien > Aug 12, 2020 7:20 PM | Report Abuse

FYI. next quarter correct EPS is atleast 60 sens.
based on
ASP July +10%
ASP August +10% on top of July
ASP September +10% on top of August

I use +10% only, super conservative. What if I use +15%? hehehe


MeMeMe
876 posts

Posted by MeMeMe > Aug 12, 2020 7:21 PM | Report Abuse

Nice, supermx price today dropped so much, what you waiting for? Sell house, parent, kids, wife all in


vinkuat
24 posts

Posted by vinkuat > Aug 12, 2020 8:20 PM | Report Abuse

@tcgien,yes it is 60 sens. In fact my calculation is 62.2 sens. I just use the very-very low estimations so that those who is ignorance can digest easier.


vinkuat
24 posts

Posted by vinkuat > Aug 12, 2020 8:22 PM | Report Abuse

@beginner, don't ever sell your family member no matter how good is investment return.


iambillionaireinusd
10 posts

Posted by iambillionaireinusd > Aug 12, 2020 9:14 PM | Report Abuse

wrong calculation
eps is calculated based on the net profit of the trailing twelve months and latest number of shares issued.


vinkuat
24 posts

Posted by vinkuat > Aug 13, 2020 11:41 AM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/OoiTeikBee/2020-08-12-story-h1511677880-Projected_PAT_in_Q1_2021_result_of_Supermx.jsp

OTB calculations. So complicated and arrive at RM50. So, it is also very near.


Targeted
2604 posts

Posted by Targeted > Aug 13, 2020 7:12 PM | Report Abuse

Good attempt, keep it up!


chief999
1849 posts

Posted by chief999 > Aug 16, 2020 10:44 PM | Report Abuse

nice... keep it up :)


stockraider
27566 posts

Posted by stockraider > Aug 17, 2020 12:42 AM | Report Abuse

U need to understand this loh...!!

Dali is wrong mah...!!

The broker institute this no contra guideline to protect the glove traders & investors and remisier mah..if there is a crash alot of people will go bankrupt mah..!!

Better to let some air out 1st mah...!!

If the purchasers are so confident perhaps they should use their own cash to buy...why need to use remisier limit or margin and endanger much more people to the euphoria leh ?...!!

The brokers are right to institute pre emptive strike loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > Aug 17, 2020 12:33 AM | Report Abuse X

This stupid dali say gloves being a commodity they are sign of danger then why he do not allow the brokers to steer away from danger leh ??

I think people should be rational and allow the brokers to take preventive action mah...!!

This will reduce sharp systematic risk mah...!!


Chua Joe Beng
518 posts

Posted by Chua Joe Beng > Aug 17, 2020 7:19 AM | Report Abuse

Copy & Paste/Highlight

SUPERMAX PRICE RANGE IF ASP INCREASE 20% FROM JULY TO SEPTEMBER.

Author: vinkuat | Publish date: Wed, 12 Aug 2020, 12:50 PM

SUPERMAX

2nd Quarter before EPS is just 2.31 sen (official)
1st Quarter before EPS is just 5.42 sen (official)
The current quarter EPS is just 30.58 sen (official)

Next quarter EPS @36.69 sen (forecast assumed ASP increase 20% ONLY!)
So, total 4 quarter EPS is 2.31 + 5.42 + 30.58 + 36.69 = 75.00

My personal opinion on PE for rubber glove company especially the big rubber glove company is around PE 40 to PE 70 during this Covid-19 period.

EPS x PE= Price

75.00 x 40= RM30.00
75.00 x 50= RM37.50
75.00 x 60= RM45.00
75.00 x 70= RM52.50

Based on the PE recently where the Top 4 glove companies namely Topglove, Supermax, Hartalega and Kossan hv achieved P/E 100 and more, it's safe to give a P/E 40 to 70.

Therefor, the price shall be at least RM30.00 to RM RM52.50

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