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78 comment(s). Last comment by godhand at Nov 18, 2020 8:39 PM
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DarkTemplars
1065 posts

Posted by DarkTemplars > Sep 6, 2020 1:17 PM | Report Abuse

according to many news sources i think the party will only end by end of next year. with oversupply, competition from locals, china etc. asp prices tapering out. lesser profit growth etc.


Goldberg
913 posts

Posted by Goldberg > Sep 6, 2020 3:06 PM | Report Abuse

WHO says widespread coronavirus vaccinations are not expected until mid 2021

The organization is stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.

NONE of the candidate vaccines in advanced clinical trials so far has demonstrated a “clear signal” of efficacy at the level of at least 50% sought by the WHO, spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.


ruby20
207 posts

Posted by ruby20 > Sep 6, 2020 4:03 PM | Report Abuse

Glove oversupply in 3 months? LOL!!

Good article but that sentence alone discredit everything


Hazzyy
91 posts

Posted by Hazzyy > Sep 6, 2020 4:12 PM | Report Abuse

You can know the stupidity of the person by the questions he asked and the wisdom by the answer he gives


Hazzyy
91 posts

Posted by Hazzyy > Sep 6, 2020 4:37 PM | Report Abuse

Intelligent but not smart . Does it sound right ?


lembest
15 posts

Posted by lembest > Sep 6, 2020 5:27 PM | Report Abuse

HAHAHA i rest my case


sosfinance
1295 posts

Posted by sosfinance > Sep 6, 2020 8:25 PM | Report Abuse

Actually it is quite simple, when Supermx/Top Glove next quarter exceed the research houses' consensus with double digits, and ASPs still has no sign of peaking in Nov or Dec, share price will move up (moratorium issue is temporary knee jerk).


infinity888
526 posts

Posted by infinity888 > Sep 7, 2020 3:13 AM | Report Abuse

I believe the greatest fool is YOU


teareader818
410 posts

Posted by teareader818 > Sep 7, 2020 6:19 AM | Report Abuse

Choivo, I think you missed an important point that there may be a worldwide conspiracy led by the mainstream media to heighten the fear of Covid-19 in order to destroy the world economies. CDC just admitted that in US, actual deaths from Covid-19 were only about 6% of the total announced earlier. The other 94% deaths had on average 2.6 additional causes, such as cancer, heart and lung diseases, etc. Cases of people of having died from car accidents with Covid-19, were reported dead from the disease. CDC has also bluntly stated that there have been more deaths from suicides and drug overdoses than from Covid-19. These falsified reports in the US have very much to do with the US Elections in November. Cheers!


Tryingtogetrich
144 posts

Posted by Tryingtogetrich > Sep 7, 2020 7:17 AM | Report Abuse

Almost Everyone agree the party will end some time next year right? Look around !!!! Maybe people r starting to leave. Don’t be the last to leave oh.......... the last few to leave will have to clean out your account!


stockraiders
100 posts

Posted by stockraiders > Sep 7, 2020 8:50 AM | Report Abuse

Petronas is not only reporting loss, but they are also jumping into the glove mania by investing into the set-up of the glove-related industry.


speakup
17369 posts

Posted by speakup > Sep 7, 2020 9:38 AM | Report Abuse

petronas making the chemicals for glove. their cost is the chemicals


speakup
17369 posts

Posted by speakup > Sep 7, 2020 9:40 AM | Report Abuse

what petronas is making is like what luxchem is making, but on a much much larger scale


Primeinvestor
1153 posts

Posted by Primeinvestor > Sep 7, 2020 9:50 AM | Report Abuse

STOCKRAIDER means he is smarter than petronas...HAHAHAHA


Investor
120 posts

Posted by Investor > Sep 7, 2020 9:57 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/general-recs/administration.html

*Note: This guideline is pre-Covid*

General Precautions
Persons administering vaccinations should follow appropriate precautions to minimize risk for disease exposure and spread. Hands should be cleansed with an alcohol-based waterless antiseptic hand rub or washed with soap and water before preparing vaccines for administration and between each patient contact (1). Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations do not require gloves to be worn when administering vaccinations, unless persons administering vaccinations have open lesions on their hands or are likely to come into contact with a patient’s body fluids (2). If worn, gloves should be changed between patients.


newbie4444
1051 posts

Posted by newbie4444 > Sep 7, 2020 12:30 PM | Report Abuse

Why Superman drop? Is it KYY, OTB sold while KYY ask us to buy?


hng33
17502 posts

Posted by hng33 > Sep 7, 2020 12:32 PM | Report Abuse

Glove export to US on decreasing trend

https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc


Jack Khan
741 posts

Posted by Jack Khan > Sep 7, 2020 12:52 PM | Report Abuse

Distribution Phase my friends. It will sideline and once awhile spike up to attract more fish then after 6 month it will start drop until normal. Sometimes may take years.
Not much flesh now only bone if you want.


Vairocana9999
210 posts

Posted by Vairocana9999 > Sep 7, 2020 2:13 PM | Report Abuse

I beg to differ.

Even when WHO's prediction of mass vaccination starts in mid 2021 comes true, it is only a beginning phase because it can take years to produce ample vaccines for the world populations.

The world economy will only start the real recovery journey when efficacious vaccines are available beyond 2021.

And to declare the Covid-19 pandemic is over, it could be another few years after 2021. In fact, WHO has predicted earlier that this pandemic would only be declared over most probably in 2025.

Then only the glove demand and supply will reach an equilibrium. However, the post covid-19 ASP for the big 4 will remain high and stable, due to the structural shift in demand and the new normal caused by this once in a century pandemic.

So from now till 2021/2022, we have a golden chance to witness the explosive PATs by the big 4 in the coming qtrs, and this is also once in a century, may be.


supersaiyan3
2590 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Sep 7, 2020 4:02 PM | Report Abuse

I disagree, based on:

1. HY is a trap (or collateral damage, it was never the intend of the owner to make money from goreng?), the owner from China make up the numbers, get loan, and reporting bad numbers even since. Evidence by top directors + CEO resigned (immediately after something goes wrong). JAKS (in JAKS, the owner never say they can make so much money, only KYY+ talk about their ambition), SENDAI got net cash?

Bear in mind i said similar thing about HY even before the rise. I hate to earn dirty money like that.

2. I think you are making a mistake without study in depth on the company, the technology, the pandemic, etc (or maybe you did? kindly share your insight). We may defer in opinion/conclusion but at least you study on the company first. I mean, don't talk about sentiment only, in the longer term, its always about the company.

3. Nobody knows about the future, who knows if somebody crash a plane into it tomorrow. However, based on available information, Supermax will do superbly over the next 12 months at least, it is equally risky to invest in the recovery.

4. Even after this pandemic, other disease may come. This is not a one-off event, the transmission is just amazingly fast, and therapy is so difficult. In the future, to prevent such event from happening, worldwide precautionary measure is pushing the glove industry to grow superfast year after year.

You know? China always has weird diseases, swine fever, h5n1 and we Malaysia as a country (and the rest of the world), never allow to import any livestock or uncook meat etc from China, because they will always have outbreak, forever. Only this time this pandemic is so strong due to its manmade nature. They may make more because it looks like they are winning the war.


Philip ( buy what you understand)
4020 posts

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Sep 7, 2020 4:13 PM | Report Abuse

1. Supermax will have superb results there is no doubt about it. However... does the results match the euphoria and forward looking investments dollars to put into it moving forward? Can supermax next quarter reach 800 million? next quarter after that 1600 million? how about next quarter after that? Yes, one may not know the future, but paying the price today assuming that every year will be covid-19 year is not rational.

2. study or not, one thing is for sure: either you believe there will be a vaccine, or you believe that there will not be a cure. The probabilities of a vaccine coming out is far more likely than not, considering the entire world is rushing to produce a vaccine. The question to ask is simple: if no covid, how much will be the glove demand moving forward? If covid continues to exist... well.. different story.

3. Yes, other diseases will come, but that is not the question to ask. The question to ask is moving forward, by 2021 and on, how much more glove capacity will exist in the world? As supply will undoubtedly overload demand, how much will the price change versus supply? It is silly to assume that no one else has the capacity to produce gloves, and moving forward at such great margins, no one else will want to join in the game.


speakup
17369 posts

Posted by speakup > Sep 7, 2020 4:17 PM | Report Abuse

chivo is very happy now
he can buy supermax cheap
FARK!


Choivo Capital
3596 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Sep 7, 2020 4:55 PM | Report Abuse

My long term fair value of supermax is maybe at RM2.

Good luck, unlikely to touch it in the interim.


Choivo Capital
3596 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Sep 7, 2020 5:04 PM | Report Abuse

@supersaiyan

https://choivocapital.com/2020/05/22/ragret-del-luna-10-pe-glove-companies-supermx-7106/

https://choivocapital.com/2020/03/28/lessons-from-golconda-a-reflection-on-moving-forward/

I wrote about supermax before the super run up in May and the virus in April.


EatCoconutCanWin
2980 posts

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > Sep 7, 2020 6:04 PM | Report Abuse

good job Choivo ...you help a lot..tq


supersaiyan3
2590 posts

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Sep 7, 2020 6:31 PM | Report Abuse

Philip, there is a big problem in your assumption. If you think Supermax double its profit every quarter, then in a year it will be 16 times growth, one way to value it will be 1600 times PE. That will be roughly RM1000.00 Per share. If you do a DDM, NPV, etc whatever 201 stuff you will get "infinity" as an answer.

I am quite sure nobody think Supermax worth RM1000, yet.

Supermax only need RM800m next QR, then slowly towards RM1b profit. At 20 times PE, assuming 4b net profit per annum, that will be 80b market cap. That will make Supermax worth slightly more than RM30.

(At RM2 a share, if Supermax make 4b profit, that would be PE of 1.4?? Possible, but not probable. )

Choivo, I got Supermax and glove fairly early too. What i mean is to advice you to do the calculation just as you did with Airasia. Don't jump into conclusion without working it through.

Let the numbers speak. Kossan, Harta still talking about USD30-40 ASP, Supermax is aiming USD280 now. Kneel to figures.

Remember bitcoin? Monopoly money can worth USD30k.

My guess is a half year pandemic will consume 2 years production of glove. It looks like it will go on for another 9 months at least, that will create excess demand for another 4 years at least.


blood7 loves kavalan solist
254 posts

Posted by blood7 loves kavalan solist > Sep 7, 2020 6:53 PM | Report Abuse

hi jon, good evening....

let me share with you a very good article in i3.....
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ss2020_vaInv/2020-07-20-story-h1510636040-Bonus_issue_of_Top_Glove_Hartalega_Kossan_and_Supermax.jsp

-so your opinion would be long term holders are idiots? the greatest fools too? :p
-you use 'supermax/glove companies'... so your article also meant Top Glove too? :)

lastly....
i think in life there's 3 situation....
1)you fall in love, you chase and you succeed....
2)you fall in love, you chase and failed....
3)you stand by the side wondering if the girl is perfect before you decide to go after, but then the girl left.....

jon, i am not guru or sifu, neither am i a multi-millionaire... but i can tell you this - please, please.... don't always choose 3

hahahaha.... good luck!


godhand
1781 posts

Posted by godhand > Nov 18, 2020 8:39 PM | Report Abuse

looking at his article i can deduce that jon is one of the most neautral and human investor in this forum.

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