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78 comment(s). Last comment by godhand at Nov 18, 2020 8:39 PM
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Goldgent
939 posts

Posted by Goldgent > Sep 5, 2020 7:29 PM | Report Abuse

Copy from Tulip Mania theory. Nothing new.


ahbah
2515 posts

Posted by ahbah > Sep 5, 2020 7:40 PM | Report Abuse

No got any Tulip here.


holely
13 posts

Posted by holely > Sep 5, 2020 7:48 PM | Report Abuse

Interesting theory, but while saying the market is complex, you made assumptions and came to one conclusion linearly. Lazy to explain but with your ability to make a simple point sound complicated, you should be able to figure out what I’m saying.
Where credit is due, you can jolly well be right. My viewpoint is that the market is coming to a standpoint where it will decide eventually in coming weeks


JBond007
995 posts

Posted by JBond007 > Sep 5, 2020 7:52 PM | Report Abuse

Choivo very expensive writer in town.
Who hire him?


JBond007
995 posts

Posted by JBond007 > Sep 5, 2020 7:52 PM | Report Abuse

I also can write, share with you again.

The Glove Spectre
According to 'Dr. No', vaccine is still not available, it's 'For Your Eyes Only'. Most pharmaceutical companies have used the 'Live and Let Die' method. Sometimes you will experience 'Die Another Day' & sometimes you can only hope for 'You Only Live Twice'.

'The World Is Not Enough' with gloves, so our glove companies operate 24 hours a day with 'No Time To Die' in producing the gloves. 'On Her Majesty's Secret Service', our gloves was sent to NHS UK. 'From Russia with Love', our gloves was delivered to Moscow hospitals. Everyone is using our gloves including' The Spy Who Loved Me'.

In 'The Living Daylights', we 'Never Say Never Again' to glove counters that command high PE. We as an investor, must have the 'GoldenEye' in selecting the best glove counter, sharp & precise like 'The Man with the Golden Gun'.

From the 'Goldfinger' of uncle KYY, glove stocks have rode on 'Moonraker' & skyrocketed amid some occasional 'Thunderball'. Many syndicates & bankers that have 'Licence to Kill' are now eyeing water fish & 'Octopussy' with 'A View To A Kill'.

Stay invested, all must believe 'Diamonds Are Forever' & ' Tomorrow Never Dies'. Do not play contra as in 'Casino Royale'. Always buy on dip to ensure that you won't 'Skyfall' and felt 'Quantum of Solace' with the fluctuating market'.


Kukuman
2118 posts

Posted by Kukuman > Sep 5, 2020 8:28 PM | Report Abuse

Glove will oversupply in 3 to 6 months time? What a nonsense! All gloves coul be and to be produced have been fully booked until end of 2021!


CCCL
596 posts

Posted by CCCL > Sep 5, 2020 8:30 PM | Report Abuse

Golden rule: Do not try and make the last dollar.


patrico8
260 posts

Posted by patrico8 > Sep 5, 2020 8:43 PM | Report Abuse

Reading your article halfway through, I thought you are writing a thesis on Chaos Theory. In fact , trading in stocks is mind boggling in terms of getting it right most of the time. Prices dove when you expect it to go north and vice versa.
To get to the point, we are in the midst of a once in a century pandemic and Supermax is having great fundamentals. Will the music stop before the party has reach its climax?
I think the party is still on because the time is only 7pm, not 12.


kalteh
96 posts

Posted by kalteh > Sep 5, 2020 9:41 PM | Report Abuse

I see you made some changes on your remarks about TY Yap haha


Goldgent
939 posts

Posted by Goldgent > Sep 5, 2020 10:17 PM | Report Abuse

Yalor....why change the sentence on Mr. Yap.
Under pressure?
But the new sentence 'no comment on what TY Yap did' still not so polite lor.


Airline Bobby
491 posts

Posted by Airline Bobby > Sep 5, 2020 10:19 PM | Report Abuse

I wonder where u get the investor percentages???????


Gaussian
2209 posts

Posted by Gaussian > Sep 5, 2020 11:19 PM | Report Abuse

Has this guy live in a pandemic crisis before which is so much worse than SARS?


AT1mil
20 posts

Posted by AT1mil > Sep 5, 2020 11:39 PM | Report Abuse

To be objective, looking at your ‘fund’ performance, your professionalism and accuracy cast huge doubt.


AT1mil
20 posts

Posted by AT1mil > Sep 5, 2020 11:39 PM | Report Abuse

I have seen many are good at writing, 纸上谈兵的可悲. You May think I’m too optimistic and biased on glove stocks. Who cares.


greedy44444
1615 posts

Posted by greedy44444 > Sep 5, 2020 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

You definitely could find the greatest fool here, but definitely its NOT ME !! Believe it or not, all kinds of vaccines for covid-19 coming to the market soon, surely not later than December. Hope you're one of the fool. Take good care of your money !


greedy44444
1615 posts

Posted by greedy44444 > Sep 5, 2020 11:59 PM | Report Abuse

Today KYY tried very hard to fool the small fish again...buy more glove stocks means bankrupt faster ! Still dreaming of your glove stocks hitting all time high ?? Sweet dreams then....


oilwaterman
781 posts

Posted by oilwaterman > Sep 6, 2020 12:01 AM | Report Abuse

Russian new covid cases hit 5,300 cases today. Vaccine is effective?


Goldgent
939 posts

Posted by Goldgent > Sep 6, 2020 12:07 AM | Report Abuse

Not so difficult to find out who is the katak under tempurung fool.
Just read today article by Agence France-Presse (AFP)....Malaysia's glove makers struggle to meet booming demand.
It's a French newspaper.....not written by some keyboard warrior.


EdenOfSaudi1
181 posts

Posted by EdenOfSaudi1 > Sep 6, 2020 12:48 AM | Report Abuse

After reading your blog. I have to say that your contents are dogmatic and inaccurate. You think you write well does not mean you have done well research in the glove industry. We are still far away from the peak

Have you done research on a Polish Glove Manufacturer called Mercator Medical SA that operates OBM business model, atleast check on the company background ? Do you know how much revenue they’re going to generate in their coming Q2 result ? Let me share with you. Next Monday the company will be releasing its quarter result for April, May and June. OBM competitor with 6 billion annual production capacity of nitrile gloves, that will generate them PLN 350mils, PAT PLN 200mils. Currency exchange rate is MYR 1 to PLN 0.90, which is more or less the same. Profit margin of 55%

With that being said, Supermx’s winning OBM business model is the most relevant when it comes to comparison. 28b gloves annual capacity. There is still plenty of room for Supermx to stretch in terms of earnings.

Oversupply of gloves in 3-6months is rethoric. Backlog orders for Topglove is 560 days. This will only keep on increasing and we cannot even close to over demand gap until mid 2022 even if all glove manufacturers in China (INTCO), Thailand (Sri Trang), Malaysia (Big 4) and other small cap manufacturers ramp up their production from now.

For F sakes, do a bit of research. Glove industry has at least 50% more of room to grow.


Primeinvestor
1272 posts

Posted by Primeinvestor > Sep 6, 2020 1:16 AM | Report Abuse

i love this article, thanks! hopefully trigger some selling for me to collect cheap! hehehe, 3-6 months oversupply? hehehe, stockraider friend?hehehe


moneycashrich
1901 posts

Posted by moneycashrich > Sep 6, 2020 5:48 AM | Report Abuse

so easy to make gloves......oversupply in 3 months ? make it fall ? any secret motive ?


moneycashrich
1901 posts

Posted by moneycashrich > Sep 6, 2020 6:01 AM | Report Abuse

wait for 6 months......see who is the REAL FOOL.


inPeace
792 posts

Posted by inPeace > Sep 6, 2020 7:13 AM | Report Abuse

Please sell even at cheap prices as the writer is suggesting. Many will be waiting to collect on cheap including me and the writer himself of course. LOL


EatCoconutCanWin
3088 posts

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > Sep 6, 2020 7:36 AM | Report Abuse

Good article. Agreed with the big shark mentioned. They goreng to lure ikan bilis. Sell before too late. I didn't touch gloves since the dropping off from new high, it just can't make more money now. I bought innature,tguan,padini n fgv.


Sslee
4590 posts

Posted by Sslee > Sep 6, 2020 7:53 AM | Report Abuse

Haha Good morning Choivo,
This too shall come to pass. The question is has you bag any of these 10 baggers?
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/rally-different-super-bull-1990s
In our accompanying story, we take a look at stocks that have posted the highest gains since their lows in March. Note that all the top 10 performers have seen gains of over 1,000% in the past six months.


freetospeak
5882 posts

Posted by freetospeak > Sep 6, 2020 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

I jus wan to know who is the greater fool foreign fund who bot 4+% supermax at 22.14 on 28 aug.


Kukuman
2118 posts

Posted by Kukuman > Sep 6, 2020 9:32 AM | Report Abuse

Lousy article.. Trying to have "I Told You So" moment. Everyday cry baby that rains will come. Sure one day it will come. Typical analyst report. Cover front and back!


CharlesT
10994 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Sep 6, 2020 9:34 AM | Report Abuse

Once in a century pandemic n once in a century jackpot for glove co n investors...

Jon if u missed this i dont know what to say..


chewck631
22 posts

Posted by chewck631 > Sep 6, 2020 9:39 AM | Report Abuse

The very fact that so many companies want to jump on board the gloves band wagon indicate that the demand will continue to grow for sometime. Cannot be all these companies hire fools to research and decide on such huge invest!!


CharlesT
10994 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Sep 6, 2020 9:40 AM | Report Abuse

Few things i do agree with u...

Do not try n make the last dollar...

Will not hold any single share of supermax (or maybe will hold 1 lot for sentimental reason)in 2022 (or even SH 2021)


CharlesT
10994 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Sep 6, 2020 9:42 AM | Report Abuse

Chewck631 u r wrong..99% of those co who claimed they want to venture into glove biz r mainly to goreng their share prices..especially those penny stocks..


CharlesT
10994 posts

Posted by CharlesT > Sep 6, 2020 9:43 AM | Report Abuse

Glove biz r oligopoly....not any tom dick n harry can enter


Orlando
3245 posts

Posted by Orlando > Sep 6, 2020 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

WHO recommends wear a mask whn having sex

The more careful n wary r putting on condom too

Hidden demand KAREX


Orlando
3245 posts

Posted by Orlando > Sep 6, 2020 10:14 AM | Report Abuse

Though do not wish tis on my worst enemy

Whn WHO or Fauci say even jz 'U can't rule out semen carrying Covid...' KAREX wil fly


Orlando
3245 posts

Posted by Orlando > Sep 6, 2020 10:15 AM | Report Abuse

In KAREX u wil get 2 in 1 Condom n Gloves


Orlando
3245 posts

Posted by Orlando > Sep 6, 2020 10:18 AM | Report Abuse

U do no want to b looking back in 6 month time n having to Shoulda Woulda Coulda bot KAREX whn it was below RM 1 while squeezing ur balls hard


AT1mil
20 posts

Posted by AT1mil > Sep 6, 2020 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital, no offence but arguing politely. You should get more experience in stock market before managing others money.. Write this decision in your dairy and look back in 2021 and you will know how inexperience you are in managing your friends and relatives money. Sorry ya.


pBlue
597 posts

Posted by pBlue > Sep 6, 2020 10:34 AM | Report Abuse

What drives the glove bull run?

The Covid19 pandemic. The virus does not care about human sentiment. Why does the gloves have more to run... because there are more humans to infect. Currently 26 million people have been officially infected.... increase that by a factor of 10 to account for people who are asymptomatic... and it is just 260 million people. There are 7800 million people alive and humanity does not have immunity to this virus. Do not look at this like an economic bull run with greater fools, look at this as a pandemic with doctor having to contend with contaminated environment and hospitals that are flooding with Covid19 patients. It is bad in developing nation because they are poor and it is bad in developed nation because hospitals are not build to have excessive spare capacity. There are another 7500 million people more to go.

Vaccine typically take 5-10 years to develop. So saying we have a vaccine in 1 year is as you say expecting 9 pregnant women to give birth to a baby in 1 month. Politicians may say it time to throw a party. CEO will claim it can be done. And scientist will say we will do our best. But really the fastest vaccine ever developed took 4 years (mummps). Ebola vaccine with all modern tech of the last 2010s took 6 years to develop and test (It applied for FDA approval in December 2019).

Finally sure, you maybe willing to use the Swedish model, please consider 2 factors. (1) While the mortality rate of Covid19 is on average ~1%, this is only true if your hospitals are fully functional. 20% of people infected need medical care... as simple as antibiotics to as severe as ICU. When hospitals are pushed to their limit, the mortality rate goes up. Hospitals run of out essentials and common items, drugs, oxygen, even stuff as common as gloves. At its height the mortality rate of Covid19 in Italy was 8%, and people were saying China was hiding the true deaths as it had reported only 3.4% mortality rate.

(2) 1% mortality rate is still 1% of 7800 million people, that means 78 million people dead. More deaths than the 1918 pandemic. More deaths than WW2. In malaysia, it mean 310,000 deaths. Sweden has 20x more deaths than its neighbors. In New York, there were so many dead people, that the crematorium had to run 16 hours a day 6 days a week. Excess bodies had to be buried in mass graves and there were still bodies found rotting in the sun because Covid19 infected bodies could not be processed fast enough.


kelvin5349
162 posts

Posted by kelvin5349 > Sep 6, 2020 10:51 AM | Report Abuse

i hope you understand what you are writing in your blog here since it is read by many.i hope you do some in-depth research before coming up with such.


cruger12345
662 posts

Posted by cruger12345 > Sep 6, 2020 11:17 AM | Report Abuse

Just because someone write something against the counter you holds you called him a fool and no in-depth research and tons of non sense. Ever asked your self that the author could be right and you are at the wrong side ? Ever asked yourself the price that you paid was much higher than the value that you get ? If you are saying the gloves companies are cheap because they can hike the ASP forever then who is the greater fool here ? Does TG shall wiorth 80 bil just because you expect that it can make 4 bil annually in the coming 2 years ? Did you ever ask yourself TG shall be valued on par with MBB even though MBB made 6 bil annually for the past 5-6 years. If it is not greater tool to push up the price I don’t know what else. But having said that if doesn’t mean you shall avoid glove counters because you could very well make more money but selling it to others who are willing to pay you higher premium. It is a hefty price that you are going to pay if you are actually speculating while thinking that you are investing in a heart company. Don’t confuse yourself . Just because you bought a fundamentally good company and paying a hue premium for it that is not consider speculating . What will you say if someone bought TG at 50,75 or even 100 isn’t him speculating that the ASP will be higher and higher forever ? This round the market maker is making a killing .


goldenluck16
1205 posts

Posted by goldenluck16 > Sep 6, 2020 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

Very simple strategy, buy when there is panic selling. TAKE profit when it hits new high. In between, trade wisely, medium term still very bright for glove companies. Covid-19 is here to stay. So called upcoming companies trying their luck can't survive the competition, they just put up a lot of hypes to unload their shares.


Goldberg
1277 posts

Posted by Goldberg > Sep 6, 2020 11:22 AM | Report Abuse

CIMB Research maintain BUY on SUPERMX. - YES, A SCREAMIN BUY CALL, FOLKS-DONT MISS THE BOAT
TARGET PRICE = RM13.5
------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: 05/09/2020

Source : CIMB
Stock : SUPERMX
Price Target : 13.50
Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 9.60
Upside/Downside : +3.90 (40.63%)


inPeace
792 posts

Posted by inPeace > Sep 6, 2020 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200805/who-says-theres-no-silver-bullet-for-covid-19

WHO: There's No 'Silver Bullet' for COVID-19


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369775-covidminus-19-real-results-are-long-way-away

COVID-19: The Real Results Are A Long Way Away

We still don't know just how long this pandemic will last - will one vaccine emerge that gives the immunity? Or will we have to endure life with the virus for years or decades to come?

No matter how promising early studies or phases are, there's always a chance for the final phase to have one serious adverse effect or not hit a target antibody response, causing all the work to go out the window.

Trial completion will take time, and interim and preliminary data provide mere glimpses of the overarching study. but keep in mind the risks that are associated with pushing vaccines through unprecedented fast timelines, as hope for a vaccine by the winter far exceeds the endpoint timelines of next year and beyond.


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200826/Study-COVID-19-vaccine-should-be-at-least-8025-effective-to-prevent-ongoing-pandemic.aspx

''Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic."

The new computational model finds that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete "return to normal"


https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/covid-19-reinfection-implications/

Scientists are reporting several cases of Covid-19 reinfection


https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine

from the blog of Bill Gates
What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine


https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-surgical-gloves-ppe-makers-struggle-booming-demand-13083368

COVID-19: Surgical glove makers struggle to keep pace with booming demand



https://www.statista.com/statistics/711286/value-of-the-global-ppe-market/

Value of the personal protective equipment market worldwide from 2019 to 2027


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/vaccine-makers-plan-public-stance-counter-pressure-fda

Vaccine makers plan public stance to counter pressure on FDA



Some of the articles that perhaps you need to consider before making a fool of yourself and jeopardize your reputation. Tq


inPeace
792 posts

Posted by inPeace > Sep 6, 2020 11:26 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200805/who-says-theres-no-silver-bullet-for-covid-19

WHO: There's No 'Silver Bullet' for COVID-19


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4369775-covidminus-19-real-results-are-long-way-away

COVID-19: The Real Results Are A Long Way Away

We still don't know just how long this pandemic will last - will one vaccine emerge that gives the immunity? Or will we have to endure life with the virus for years or decades to come?

No matter how promising early studies or phases are, there's always a chance for the final phase to have one serious adverse effect or not hit a target antibody response, causing all the work to go out the window.

Trial completion will take time, and interim and preliminary data provide mere glimpses of the overarching study. but keep in mind the risks that are associated with pushing vaccines through unprecedented fast timelines, as hope for a vaccine by the winter far exceeds the endpoint timelines of next year and beyond.


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200826/Study-COVID-19-vaccine-should-be-at-least-8025-effective-to-prevent-ongoing-pandemic.aspx

''Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can 'return to normal.' However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn't mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic."

The new computational model finds that a COVID-19 vaccine will have to be at least 80 percent effective to achieve a complete "return to normal"


https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/28/covid-19-reinfection-implications/

Scientists are reporting several cases of Covid-19 reinfection


https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine

from the blog of Bill Gates
What you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccine


https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-surgical-gloves-ppe-makers-struggle-booming-demand-13083368

COVID-19: Surgical glove makers struggle to keep pace with booming demand



https://www.statista.com/statistics/711286/value-of-the-global-ppe-market/

Value of the personal protective equipment market worldwide from 2019 to 2027


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/vaccine-makers-plan-public-stance-counter-pressure-fda

Vaccine makers plan public stance to counter pressure on FDA



Some of the articles that perhaps you need to consider before making a fool of yourself and jeopardize your reputation. Tq


JohnFarmer458
1073 posts

Posted by JohnFarmer458 > Sep 6, 2020 11:42 AM | Report Abuse

CGS-CIMB (5 September) BUY call TP 13.50
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl6339_supermx_2.jpg

Affin Hwang (3 September) put overweight on Glove , BUY call
https://ibb.co/G2y0K8V

UobKayHian (4 September) put overweight on Glove , Buy call
https://ibb.co/28qKc4f


Cyrogx6
129 posts

Posted by Cyrogx6 > Sep 6, 2020 11:44 AM | Report Abuse

Half past 6 article
you didnt buy because you missed the boat, if you cant adapt, then buy others like XOX, M3Tech, Lambo.
Choivo aim supermax but no aim tan sri counter ?
scared your theory wont work with TG is it ?

This common sense article, chicken seller uncle also know how to blow water


kltower
1512 posts

Posted by kltower > Sep 6, 2020 12:03 PM | Report Abuse

"I expect supply to normalize in 3-6 months from now, before it goes into an oversupply situation, and prices plummet." -- wrong analysis.

The actual fact is: Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000. 

Twindemic is coming, the whole year of 2021 vaccine is just 杯水车薪,小水无法救大火


alkanphel
62 posts

Posted by alkanphel > Sep 6, 2020 12:09 PM | Report Abuse

You can write very well my brother.
To me, you sound like a geek more than an investor.
Meet more people, learn from others who are more experienced than you.
The more you know, you'd realize the less you know.
Good luck with your fund!


Goldberg
1277 posts

Posted by Goldberg > Sep 6, 2020 12:56 PM | Report Abuse

HERE WE GO AGAIN - WHEN CLOWNS MISS THE BOAT THEY TEND TO BE JEALOUS & BITTER AND END UP WIRTING RUBBISH. THEY JUST COULDNT BELIEVE THEY MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME.

SUPERMAX HAS SOLID FUNDAMENTALS , EXCELLENT BUSINESS MODEL- OBM & ODN, GOOD EARNINGS ( FOR THE NEXT 4 QUARTERS) WITH 1.1 B IN PREPAYMENTS , A LEAD TIME OF 600 DAYS AND A PROJECTED PAT OF 680 MILLION FOR THE NEXT QUARTER.

MOST SCIENTIST BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE TO LIVE WITH THIS PANDEMIC FOR A LONG TIME AS AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE - DUE TO MUTATIONS & REINFECTIONS. HENCE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR GLOVES ARE BRIGHT.

SUCH HALF BAKED NARRATIVES AND NONSENSICAL COMPARISONS WITH TULIPS & SARDINES REFLECTS HIS INABILITY IDENTIFY A MULTI BAGGER. YUP, A SORE LOSER.

CHOIVO, ITS STILL NOT TOO LATE TO GET ON BOARD AS SUPER IS FAIRLY VALUED AT RM15-18.


BlurBlur
1118 posts

Posted by BlurBlur > Sep 6, 2020 1:06 PM | Report Abuse

the greater fool theory is sound but only when exuberance mania is everywhere. of course u cannot predict it but i would think only next year would the party end.
i believe when u see major sh starts selling then u will know. especially from supermax n top glove owners. they will surely dispose some no?

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