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6.22   -0.01 (0.16%)  6.20 - 6.27  11,800
14,743 comment(s). Last comment by Choivo Capital at Jun 26, 2019 2:29 PM
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geary
2819 posts

Posted by geary > Apr 29, 2019 7:04 PM | Report Abuse

Oil Scenario...!!!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Fat-Margins-Have-Disappeared-Big-Oil-Disappoints.html


Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB
2600 posts

Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > May 1, 2019 6:00 PM | Report Abuse

crack spread looking very very good


Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB
2600 posts

Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > May 1, 2019 6:01 PM | Report Abuse

PUNTER's rough estimate for the upcoming QR will have 45 million profit


Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB
2600 posts

Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > May 1, 2019 6:02 PM | Report Abuse

worst case scenario 45 million profit, we come back and see 20+ days later


sheldon
826 posts

Posted by sheldon > May 1, 2019 9:56 PM | Report Abuse

I dread to make any predictions after my last quarter 2018 disastrous way off on a tangent prediction. However from my superficial observation of the prices which inclined Jan to Mar 2019, it should be good. Unless of course the management said that they had hedged.

Share price is somewhat under-valued but buybacks may not be possible as it may breach the minimum public spread.


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > May 2, 2019 7:38 PM | Report Abuse

If i had to make a guess on this q results. Should be better, though borrowing likely to increase from govt subsidies not yet received.


PH_pakatan_menipu
45 posts

Posted by PH_pakatan_menipu > May 4, 2019 1:46 PM | Report Abuse

509 marks PH 1 year in power. Petrol RM 1.5/ltr mere a cheat to win GE14?


chshzhd
786 posts

Posted by chshzhd > May 7, 2019 10:39 AM | Report Abuse

good time to buy some


Carson Teor
246 posts

Posted by Carson Teor > May 8, 2019 5:20 PM | Report Abuse

Petronm make about 95 million profit this coming QR


Carson Teor
246 posts

Posted by Carson Teor > May 9, 2019 9:14 AM | Report Abuse

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2019/05/08/petron-net-income-plunges-77-to-p1-3-billion-in-january-march/


Airline Bobby
207 posts

Posted by Airline Bobby > May 9, 2019 9:44 AM | Report Abuse

Good earnings from msia xD


john0909
210 posts

Posted by john0909 > May 9, 2019 10:31 AM | Report Abuse

not all profit are under petronm only... it shares with its sister companies as well... take note...


Carson Teor
246 posts

Posted by Carson Teor > May 9, 2019 11:10 AM | Report Abuse

it mention the profit from Malaysia is 1.2b peso, any other sister from Malaysia beside petronm ?


Carson Teor
246 posts

Posted by Carson Teor > May 9, 2019 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

with that about 0.35 EPS consider very good


KL Tneoh
768 posts

Posted by KL Tneoh > May 9, 2019 11:47 AM | Report Abuse

The 1.2 billion peso included Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd which operate around 310 Petron petrol stations.

Their net profit is around RM25-30 millions each quarter, hence PetronM estimate net earning should be around RM66-70 millions.


villa1668
1079 posts

Posted by villa1668 > May 9, 2019 11:12 PM | Report Abuse

Yes Petronm! Continue to love you


chshzhd
786 posts

Posted by chshzhd > May 9, 2019 11:54 PM | Report Abuse

so eps this q should be about 25 sen


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > May 10, 2019 10:31 AM | Report Abuse

I think PFI is around 50m per q. Either way, im fine.

====
KL Tneoh The 1.2 billion peso included Petron Fuel International Sdn Bhd which operate around 310 Petron petrol stations.

Their net profit is around RM25-30 millions each quarter, hence PetronM estimate net earning should be around RM66-70 millions.
09/05/2019 11:47 AM


kieferchong9
61 posts

Posted by kieferchong9 > May 28, 2019 12:39 AM | Report Abuse

HengYuan QR not good probably Petron also not good as well


sheldon
826 posts

Posted by sheldon > May 29, 2019 3:34 PM | Report Abuse

waiting for the results with much trepidation


Outliar
213 posts

Posted by Outliar > May 30, 2019 8:04 PM | Report Abuse

Not bad, 21.3 EPS, pretty decent and way better than Hengyuan


sheldon
826 posts

Posted by sheldon > May 31, 2019 9:39 AM | Report Abuse

Wow, wow, wow - The issue is the lack of consistency caused by the vagaries of world oil prices


Carson Teor
246 posts

Posted by Carson Teor > May 31, 2019 2:35 PM | Report Abuse

profit 57M, but net cash from operations is 432M, that is very good


antoniomc27
39 posts

Posted by antoniomc27 > Jun 2, 2019 8:16 PM | Report Abuse

I do not understand RHB analyst https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/50792.jsp

He rates the company as if it was a refining company. Not a word about the Petron Kedai shops (PetronM owns like half of them, and Petron stations have been in the rise and total 640 across Malaysia).

While refining margins might be soft for the remainder of the year, this revenue stream is growing healthily and should sustain PetronM profits on the quarters to come.


antoniomc27
39 posts

Posted by antoniomc27 > Jun 2, 2019 8:18 PM | Report Abuse

Another question: what PE is PetronM worth in your opinion?

PETDAG is trading at PE 28, but 1. it is a blue chip and a local fund darling and 2. is not exposed to the volatile refining segment.

What are other petrol retail companies' PE around the globe?


sheldon
826 posts

Posted by sheldon > Jun 2, 2019 9:07 PM | Report Abuse

Petron is one Co that generally makes impressive earnings but share price is not reflective of it. The fact that the Co pays a far less dividends compared to earnings simply means that this co is retaining a lot of profits which should cause the share price to rise. Instead it's just limp.

Many companies make a fraction of the earnings but the share price seem to leap here & there. Strange, very strange indeed!!


chshzhd
786 posts

Posted by chshzhd > Jun 3, 2019 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

keep


wotvr
708 posts

Posted by wotvr > Jun 9, 2019 3:59 PM | Report Abuse

Yeap they only pay less than a quarters earnings when they could have easily paid out much more


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jun 10, 2019 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

Did you not notice their capex requirements to meet new regulation standards?

Or the fact that there will be some cashflow constraints arising from the petrol subsidies repayment?

Or the capex done to expand the business, which makes a higher return on equity than you can get?

====
wotvr Yeap they only pay less than a quarters earnings when they could have easily paid out much more
09/06/2019 3:59 PM


Outliar
213 posts

Posted by Outliar > Jun 10, 2019 1:27 PM | Report Abuse

Petron's NP Margin is dangerously low


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jun 12, 2019 9:58 AM | Report Abuse

Its in line with PETDAG (very close actually), albeit lower in 2018 and 2019 due to refinery not contributing as much.

They dont do segment analysis, but if they did, i wont be surprised if its higher than petdag.

Maybe i should buy PFI accounts to use as a benchmark.


ongkkh
166 posts

Posted by ongkkh > Jun 12, 2019 8:52 PM | Report Abuse

Choivo what is PFI?


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jun 14, 2019 9:26 PM | Report Abuse

petron fuel international sdn bhd

Its another company held by petron corp in phillipines based in msia, it holds about 40% of the petron stations in msia.


sheldon
826 posts

Posted by sheldon > Jun 15, 2019 11:15 AM | Report Abuse

Choivo you wrote - Maybe i should buy PFI accounts to use as a benchmark.

You can't because it's 100% owned by Petron Philippines


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jun 17, 2019 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

Annual audited Accounts.

its filed with SSM yearly. RM35 per copy.

not the stock.


sheldon
826 posts

Posted by sheldon > Jun 17, 2019 2:25 PM | Report Abuse

Choivo - oh I see - apologies. If you ever get a hold of the PFI accounts, I hope you can share with us the dividends declared in 2019 and 2018.

I asked several questions but did not get to ask this. Thanks.


Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB
2600 posts

Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > Jun 18, 2019 10:29 AM | Report Abuse

lond lond lond london london


Outliar
213 posts

Posted by Outliar > Jun 18, 2019 8:48 PM | Report Abuse

So Choivo boy, what makes you think you’re not getting ‘RCE’d here as well?


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jun 19, 2019 4:11 PM | Report Abuse

Haha, if selling for a profit is being "RCE'ed", im more than happy to be RCE'ed here.

Well, there's little to no political connections.

Political businesses add a whole new level of complexity.

RCE could very well end up doing very well for itself, i just don't see have enough confidence given what i know.


Outliar
213 posts

Posted by Outliar > Jun 21, 2019 12:01 AM | Report Abuse

Getting RCE'd means not knowing what you don't know. Im sure your cost of Petron is much higher than the price now.


Kawkaw
711 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Jun 21, 2019 2:31 PM | Report Abuse

Good report for next Q


Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB
2600 posts

Posted by Mr Jho Sailang Petron & GCB > Jun 24, 2019 3:31 PM | Report Abuse

sailang margin all in here, sell house sell car, profit from econpile all coming to petron now!!!


Choivo Capital
3071 posts

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jun 26, 2019 2:29 PM | Report Abuse

By definition, you always don't know what you don't know.

That's why you get a margin of safety, and constantly search for information that conflicts with your own understanding.

Its a 17% position. My net cost is 7 flat. So i'm down 11% on it, or 1.65% overall.

=====
Posted by Outliar > Jun 21, 2019 12:01 AM | Report Abuse

Getting RCE'd means not knowing what you don't know. Im sure your cost of Petron is much higher than the price now.

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