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3.18   -0.05 (1.55%)  3.17 - 3.24  146,200
2,023 comment(s). Last comment by Bgt 9963 at Jun 8, 2021 8:48 AM
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cheeyong
425 posts

Posted by cheeyong > Oct 17, 2018 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Tomorrow Toyota Rush is coming... very nice:)


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Oct 18, 2018 3:51 PM | Report Abuse

https://www.carwow.co.uk/news/2019-toyota-rav4-price-specs-and-release-date-3906


Although there are no official figures as yet, you can expect to pay around £28,000 for a basic petrol and around £30,000 for a hybrid when the RAV4 goes on sale in early 2019.


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Oct 29, 2018 12:04 PM | Report Abuse

Almost 100k for plastic dashboard. Nice rush


hewusana
265 posts

Posted by hewusana > Oct 29, 2018 1:18 PM | Report Abuse

Price no up.. but turn to be down..


CS
108 posts

Posted by CS > Nov 5, 2018 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

good


commonsense
490 posts

Posted by commonsense > Nov 6, 2018 7:36 PM | Report Abuse

Guys, just wanted to know what are the catalysts to invest or stay invested in UMW?

Previously it was supposed to be the MBMR deal but that has since been scraped. Doing the deal would have made the company very appealing since it will be the only proxy to Perodua growth. Now MBMR looks a lot cheaper compared to UMW.

Toyota sales during the tax holiday was excellent but can it maintain the momentum given now that the cars are on average more expensive post SST compared to during GST in particular the higher margin vehicles like Vellfire and Alphard (both are CBU models). Even the newly launch Rush is actually being manufactured by Perodua. The new plant in Bukit Raja is apparently mainly for the sedan models (Vios and Cambry). I initially thought that they would focus more on the SUV or MPV models for the new factory. I think they still need around RM1bil to complete the factory as of 2Q18.

The aerospace division still has yet to breakeven. Need to wait for 3Q18 to see if they have improved but based on the recent analyst reports it seems like they are facing difficulties in the operation and most likely will miss their target for breakeven by end of this year. Hopefully, they can show improvement in 3Q.

The unlisted O&G division posted a loss of RM122mil in 2Q18. Did they managed to sell the remaining businesses? Most analyst has actually taken out this division performance in coming up with their target price. If they failed to disposed off the assets, then the analysts might add back the losses into the target price calculation, wouldn't they?

My final concern is on the cash flow. They still have around RM2bil in reserves (cash and money market securities) but around RM1 bil is for capital committed for the Bukit Raja plant which leaves them with RM1 bil. Is this enough? in 1H18 they cash outflow was -RM360mil. If it was not because of the RM1.1bil sukuk, the cash outflow would have been -RM1.4bil. Are they planning to raise any further capital soon?


Guardize
212 posts

Posted by Guardize > Nov 8, 2018 2:30 PM | Report Abuse

buy b4 qr release? already in warrant


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Nov 9, 2018 11:03 AM | Report Abuse

Let's go buy plastic toys


cheated
876 posts

Posted by cheated > Nov 15, 2018 5:09 AM | Report Abuse

Why QR must delay if good?


Hafid
870 posts

Posted by Hafid > Nov 15, 2018 9:22 AM | Report Abuse

UMW IS OUT OF THE MSCI INDEX


commonsense
490 posts

Posted by commonsense > Nov 16, 2018 6:40 AM | Report Abuse

Whats your view on 3Q result?

My expectations is that auto will still do well. Not an issue for me.

Heavy equipment should also do well.

Worries would be on the M&E and unlisted O&G divisions. Expect higher losses on the aero segment (based on analyst report, they actually missed their target for this year) and still high losses on the o&g segment.

Since 2q the only development of the unlisted asset announce in the winding up of vina offshore. But i think that one is just a small company. So expect still higher losses from unlisted o&g segment.

Still dissapointed that they failed to get MBMR. They should have just increased the offer at rm3. Even that its still less than 10x PE and less than 0.8x BV. Given the current valuation of 15x expected core PAT and 1.7x BV that UMW is trading at the moment, it is still consider value accreative. In addition, the market has no other choice but to buy UMW shares to have exposure to Perodua.

Anyway if they can disposed of o&g assets and turn around the aero division that would be great news for investors. Hope they can achieve this soon.


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Nov 21, 2018 12:15 PM | Report Abuse

Our car price is good to buy. We saw a lot of new car on the road.


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Nov 22, 2018 6:09 PM | Report Abuse

Many dunno cars and its price


commonsense
490 posts

Posted by commonsense > Nov 23, 2018 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

MBMR result just came out yesterday. Associate profit for 3Q was RM39.2mil (for 22.6% interest in Perodua). This means that Perodua recorded a PAT of around RM173mil in 3Q18. UMW 38% in Perodua should record a PAT of RM66mil. Toyota profit contribution should also be in the same range which would provide a bumper profit contribution from the automotive division. Total profit for the division should range somewhere around RM150mil

However, investors need to be prepare for a still big losses coming from the aerospace and also the unlisted O&G divisions. I am anticipating a combined losses of RM100mil for these two division combined. It may take a while for the aerospace division to breakeven (hopefully by next FY).

Equipment profit (excluding gain on disposal to Komatsu) should be around the range or RM35-40mil.

Positive catalysts would be:

1) The growth of Perodua profit in FY19 from the still high demand of New Myvi and the introduction of new entry level SUV.

2) The breakeven of the aerospace division.

3) The disposal of all major unlisted O&G companies

4) Growth from heavy equipment division from potential new products introduce by Komatsu.

Issues facing UMW for the near term will be its cash balance (they still need around RM1bil to complete the Bukit Raja Toyota plant and also further investment for the aerospace division).

Investors that are buying into this company for their exposure to Perodua should consider switching to MBMR as it offer a cheaper alternative to UMW.


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Nov 23, 2018 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

Perodua better than Proton. Engine ok but interior quality..yaiks


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Nov 26, 2018 12:24 PM | Report Abuse

Let's buy expensive plastic


commonsense
490 posts

Posted by commonsense > Dec 2, 2018 9:44 AM | Report Abuse

3Q18 result was above expectation mainly due to the better performance of the M&E and unlisted O&G segment. I had been too pessimistic on both the divisions and had anticipated a loss of -RM100mil. The actual result (PBT) for the combined division is -RM2.2mil.

Auto and equipment divisions PBT were both in line with my expectation. Auto division managed to bring in RM151mil PBT thanks to better margin (stronger RM vs USD) and higher sales from the tax holiday period. Equipment PBT was at RM43.5 mil driven by higher export sales and higher demand from construction industry as client would most probably want to take advantage of the tax free holiday.

Toyota sales in Oct dropped to 4,757 cars vs 6,201 recorded in Oct 17 (-23% decrease).
Perodua sales in Oct increased to 19,528 cars vs 16,491 recorded in Oct 17 (18% increase).
If the trends continues, i would assume the PBT for the division could still be around RM150mil for 4Q18.

Equipment should still be able to record a PBT of around RM40mil.

Assuming a breakeven level for the combine M&E and unlisted O&G segment.

Total core PBT for 4Q should be around RM200mil. However please take note that the RM1.1bil sukuk has an interest rate of 6.35% per annum paid semi annually. This would mean on top of the finance cost that you see from 1Q to 3Q18 you need to assume an additional finance cost of around RM70mil per year. Given the issuance date was on 20th Apr 2018, UMW is expected to pay its first interest payment in Oct amounting to RM35m. So core PBT in 4Q18 should be around RM170mil

Valuation wise, I am targeting the company to be able to get RM550mil PATAMI for FY 2019. At the current price this would translate to a valuation of 10.7x Fwd PE which is not that expensive.

For gearing calculation I have adjusted the sukuk of RM1.1 bil to be placed in non current liabilities instead of equity. This would bring the debt level of the company as of Sept 2018 to RM4.2bil and reduce the total equity to RM4.5bil. Adjusted gearing is 93.9% however net gearing (company has RM2.7bil in cash reserves and liquid investment) is only 33%.

I believe you should only invest in the company if you truly believe in Toyota abilities to maintain or gain more market shares and also if you believe in the Rolls Royce project. Currently the rolls royce project is still loss making due to lower than expected production level. But based on management indication, at full capacity the venture could provide good returns to UMW (however, they did not specify the profit target)

For Toyota, i am not certain that the new Bukit Raja plant would be a positive catalyst to the company as the plant is only expected to produce Camry and Vios models instead of the MPV (Vellfire and Alphard) or SUV (Rush currently being manufactured by Perodua). Just because the capacity increase does not mean demand will increase as well.

For those interested in having exposure to Perodua, MBMR would offer a better alternative. Valuation is cheap at only 5.3x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already at RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5xBV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17.

Please go through analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions.

Good luck.


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 2, 2018 11:13 AM | Report Abuse

Can anybody tell when the report will be out


apolloang
18570 posts

Posted by apolloang > Dec 2, 2018 11:22 AM | Report Abuse

already out,looks good tomoro should up


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 3, 2018 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

Boughtytoday apolo


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 4, 2018 9:43 PM | Report Abuse

no regretted soldytoday
Tq


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 4, 2018 10:22 PM | Report Abuse

tq pang will monitors closely umw
Any changes hemtam..


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Dec 6, 2018 10:24 AM | Report Abuse

Tq you tq me


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Dec 10, 2018 4:50 PM | Report Abuse

Foreign car manufacturers will slowly withdraw their market in Malaysia because of not favorable policies which would affect the sales.


:-)
4988 posts

Posted by :-) > Dec 11, 2018 12:33 PM | Report Abuse

Uncle kyy bought this Toyota shares,,, umw started enjin ....


pang72
43887 posts

Posted by pang72 > Dec 13, 2018 3:29 PM | Report Abuse

Really! Hope it fly....


pang72
43887 posts

Posted by pang72 > Dec 13, 2018 6:33 PM | Report Abuse

Look alike kyy style...belankang Mari!!


pang72
43887 posts

Posted by pang72 > Dec 14, 2018 4:57 PM | Report Abuse

Today belakang no mari


pang72
43887 posts

Posted by pang72 > Dec 14, 2018 6:35 PM | Report Abuse

Add


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 19, 2018 8:24 PM | Report Abuse

epf bought.. Good indicator for buying..
At least can dream for 6.20...
No get... No woman... No cry..


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 20, 2018 1:23 AM | Report Abuse

Another 25-30 tomolo..


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Dec 21, 2018 11:06 AM | Report Abuse

The new Toyota Vios has been launched on the China car market. Price starts at 69.800 yuan and ends at 112.800 yuan.

Google search result.

Wake up . Still kena tipu?


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 22, 2018 12:59 AM | Report Abuse

Mr bull..
Make bull for umw looo..
Not only bull for talking ma...

It will end up... With other bull..
Bullxxxxxx..

No woman.. No cry.. Hape week end


DrPitchard
82 posts

Posted by DrPitchard > Dec 22, 2018 1:17 AM |

Post removed. Why?


BULL1000BEAR1000
308 posts

Posted by BULL1000BEAR1000 > Dec 26, 2018 8:44 AM | Report Abuse

Shame on you


tbc1982
88 posts

Posted by tbc1982 > Dec 28, 2018 4:59 PM | Report Abuse

yes! collect a bit at 5.30


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Dec 31, 2018 8:22 PM | Report Abuse

Toyota engine...
About to start... Any one want to ride... Most welcome..
I will off loading when profit on hand


James Ng
2207 posts

Posted by James Ng > Jan 15, 2019 10:30 AM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/190146.jsp
[转贴] [Facebook live:浅谈UMW holdings bhd (UMW)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Jan 16, 2019 11:13 AM | Report Abuse

How to subscribe james


SamuelLuke
2015 posts

Posted by SamuelLuke > Feb 15, 2019 10:08 AM | Report Abuse

Those players in O&G sectors can sell lo, time to watch construction.... the worst time is over. Place your bet and wait for your reward. O&G sector will now meet its worst challenge. Sell now while your have your profit!!!


SamuelLuke
2015 posts

Posted by SamuelLuke > Feb 19, 2019 2:46 PM | Report Abuse

SamuelLuke Those players in O&G sectors can sell lo, time to watch construction.... the worst time is over. Place your bet and wait for your reward. O&G sector will now meet its worst challenge. Sell now while your have your profit!!!

15/02/2019 10:06

Construction sectors are moving now guys you still have chances arrange your moment don’t miss the best moment!!!


Kawkaw
853 posts

Posted by Kawkaw > Feb 22, 2019 12:02 AM | Report Abuse

5.35 waiting for u.
No get.. No woman...no cry


madguy
546 posts

Posted by madguy > Mar 8, 2019 6:06 PM | Report Abuse

wtf why keep on droping ..?? now near and touch ma200 edi ... damn


nckcm
2729 posts

Posted by nckcm > Mar 8, 2019 6:20 PM | Report Abuse

U need to read international news


James Ng
2207 posts

Posted by James Ng > Mar 16, 2019 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/198165.jsp
[转贴] [Facebook live:浅谈UMW holdings bhd (UMW)] - James的股票投资James Share Investing


calvintaneng
41416 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > May 24, 2019 1:16 AM |

Post removed. Why?


Abhi_Kl
3 posts

Posted by Abhi_Kl > Jun 25, 2019 2:12 PM | Report Abuse

Asian Stocks Fall as Traders Await Trump-Xi Meeting; Officials Begin Talks
For your stocks Technical and fundamental analysis with proper buying level
whatsapp at +60 11 1348 0036


James Ng
2207 posts

Posted by James Ng > Aug 3, 2019 10:50 AM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/general/217901.jsp
[转贴] [UMW HOLDINGS BHD:销售的汽车数量增加以及航空航天业务在制造和工程部门的销量增加] - James的股票投资James Share Investing


firehawk
3742 posts

Posted by firehawk > Aug 27, 2019 9:24 PM | Report Abuse

tomorrow can get less than 5?


LoveSandy
72 posts

Posted by LoveSandy > Aug 27, 2019 11:20 PM | Report Abuse

rm4.50

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